10-10-25 - 7am - 'Peace' Between Israel & Hamas

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ashley Michael.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'd like the correct person who was praising your pronunciation
of that. You should be pronounced it correct. Actually you
prick announced it correct. Lee, long live the adverb.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
Yes, you're right. There was a speed so we heard
the truck driver just then. Yeah, did you see the
text message?

Speaker 4 (00:25):
Uh?

Speaker 1 (00:25):
Oh what now? Now?

Speaker 3 (00:26):
No, it's just from goubnor thirty three seventy four. This
was at nine o'clock last night, Mike lunch in Florence
with the truck driver. There are only about three thousand people,
does not include the prisoners in Supermax by the way
in and around Florence, so there are very limited eating
choices in town. There is no MacDonald's, but there is

(00:47):
a Carls Junior on the subway.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
oOoOO.

Speaker 3 (00:50):
There is one small coffee shop and one grill and bar.
There's one steakhouse, but it is only open for dinner.
It is the Colorado State capital for antique shops. I
see an entire weekend.

Speaker 4 (01:06):
So yeah, I was gonna say, it's more than a
day trip.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Yeah, and so.

Speaker 3 (01:11):
I'll look for maybe I may have to go to
Wallsenburg or Pueblo or somewhere, but I'll get us a
room with three beds, and you know, I'll spring for
the room at the most motel five and a half
and we'll, you know, we'll make a weekend of it.

Speaker 4 (01:28):
What's worse than a lunch with a listener a weekend
with a listener that listener, that listener.

Speaker 3 (01:36):
We have to listen to this bull crap, you know,
for like twenty four hours. And by the way, we're
not driving down.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
There together either. We might meet you down there, but
we ain't.

Speaker 3 (01:45):
Getting a no truck with you, because one, I'd just
like to live a little bit longer. And two, if
you kidnap us, I got news for you. They might
bail out Dragon, they might pay a ransom for Dragon,
and nobody's paying squat for me.

Speaker 4 (02:02):
Yeah, Missus Redbeard can't live without me, quite quite literally,
She just she just can't.

Speaker 3 (02:06):
Right, And missus Brown is like, when's he gonna go Wednesday?
Finally gonna croak? And of course the company's not gonna,
you know, pay a rant, So I mean, I'm sure
they've got some ransom insurance policy for the for the
muckety MUCKs in New York, but for us pleaves down here,
they'll be like and just saved us a little money.

Speaker 4 (02:26):
Well maybe if we had some great ratings, but nobody
ever tells us so.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
But you got to go to Los Angeles to find
your ratings. That's what you gotta do. I wish, by
the way, one reason why I'm in a really good
mood today, A really good mood. Well plus that and
it's righty. So they combine the two, Oh, Israel and Hamas,

(02:53):
and that's let's see, yeah, let's see.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (03:00):
Both CNN and Fox are talking about it right now.
This is a thought experiment. I'm not saying that Israel
is the loser. This is why Israel can be seen
as the loser. And I think the overarching reason is

(03:21):
they started Look October seven, two years ago, when Hamas
started killing, raping, kidnapping. Just absolute it's Israel's nine to
eleven twelve, was it twelve hundred, whatever the number was,

(03:43):
and Benjamin Netanyahu, in the entire Israeli population, I think
there was probably ninety nine point nine percent agreement Hamas
must be eliminated. Now, to me, eliminated means that's kind
of what you Hamas were trying to do to us.

(04:03):
You were trying to wipe us, wipe us off the
face of the earth. Well, we're gonna wipe you off
the face of the earth. And I think that's legitimate
because you're not dealing with a You're not dealing with
a Yes, they're state sponsored, but HAMAS doesn't wear uniforms.

(04:26):
Hamas is a non government actor. They are a non
state terrorist organization, and eliminating them from the face of
the earth is a noble goal, but I'm not certain
it can be done. Case in Point al KaiA casing
point the Hoothis. While the Hoothis have been predominantly shut down,

(04:52):
they're still able to lob a rocket every once in
a while. And in fact, I forget there's some shipping
company or oil company, maybe it was Shell or somebody
that's they have actually made a target. They've announced that
that's our new target. So you wonder why. I mean,
there are many reasons, but one reason why oil and
gas prices remain where they are is well, because they're

(05:13):
targeting Shell or whoever it is coming through coming through
the Gulf. Well, HAMAS is going to retain their governing
position in Gaza, at least for the time being, until
this transition can occur. The agreement only mandates disarmament in principle,
I couldn't find any clear enforcement mechanism for that. So

(05:36):
the Israelis ought to and write, I think rightly, do
fear that Hamas using the concept of hudnah will regroup
and potentially plan future attacks. That has happened historically after
prior prisoner releases. Why would it not happen here? Well, again,
it's a phased in agreement. So if they truly which

(05:58):
is why would you understand if they really do decide
to to implement hudnah and and use this time as
hudna to regroup. They may not regroup within Gaza, but
they'll regroup elsewhere. Now what you think about it? In
terms of Al Qaeda, can you tell me what an

(06:21):
Al Qaeda terrorist looks like? Stop and thinking about it
from them? Can you tell me what a Hesbalah looks
like or a Huthi? You really can't. And the reason
you can't is because they can recruit worldwide. And even
if you want to say, oh, well, Michael, they're of

(06:43):
Middle Eastern descent, so they have olive skin, uh, you know,
and and they have that they have dark hair, well,
that could describe an Italian that could describe you know
maybe well maybe not a Hispanic, but someone who has
you know, someone here of mixed trace that has you know,
really beautiful olive scan and Neel's really beautiful dark.

Speaker 1 (07:05):
Eyes, dark brown eyes.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
My point being, Hamas can regroup anywhere in the world,
including in this country if they wanted to, because it
might be more difficult for them now to get into
the country. But perhaps they're already here in this country.
So let's just move our base of operations to I

(07:28):
don't know, Harris County, Texas, Houston, Texas, it's a good
international airport, or Los Angeles or you know, Long Island,
flying to Kennedy, and we'll just got well, because we
know that's.

Speaker 1 (07:43):
What al Qaeda has done.

Speaker 3 (07:46):
We know that's what the Chinese Communist Party has done,
So why would Hamas not do the same thing. They'll regroup,
plan future attacks that has historically happened for the past year,
fourteen hundred years, and they'll continue to do so. So

(08:06):
I think the failure to eliminate Humus is the primary
reason why, from an Israeli point of view, you're a loser.
The second would be these prisoner concessions. Now I've had
a lot of discussions in tel of even Jerusalem with
Israeli generals about these concessions, and they tell me, yes,

(08:28):
we're willing to do that because remember, a country of
nine million people. I forget how many Jews.

Speaker 1 (08:34):
Are in the world.

Speaker 3 (08:35):
I apologize, but whatever that diminished number is of the
number of Jews in the world, they will do anything
and everything to preserve the life of Jews. And I
understand that, and I think it's rational. But these are
significant prisoner concessions. They're releasing thousands of Palestinian prisoners, including

(08:59):
many they're considered terrorists, and many that are serving life sentences.
This is almost the duplication of the twenty eleven prisoner
release that freed Hamas leaders who later orchestrated these very attacks.
Such releases are viewed, I think by many Israelis as
empowering and enabling Hamas rather than weakening weakening it does

(09:24):
it means going to happen tomorrow or the next day,
because again, the concept of Hudna says, oh, we'll just
use this time to rebuild. The third reason that I
would look at this and say, man, not really sure
about it is the partial Israeli military withdrawal. Now again
you go back to the concept of diplomacy. It's give

(09:45):
and take. While Israel is pulling troops back, it will
remain militarily engaged. But guess what that means. That means
that the Israeli defense forces are exposed to potential further conflicts.

Speaker 1 (10:03):
How long do you think it will.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
Be before the New York Times will scream aheadline that
an idea of soldier killed an innocent Gosen citizen, when
really it was a member of Hamas that decided to
attack an idea of soldier who was on patrol and

(10:26):
just decided.

Speaker 1 (10:26):
To take them out.

Speaker 3 (10:28):
If you've ever stood on the cliff, there's a cliff
that is to the to the kind of the west
and south of Gaza, and you can sit on that cliff.
I've got pictures of me with some Israeli kids staring
down into Gaza from that point.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
And when you look at the strip, you realize, first of.

Speaker 3 (10:49):
All, you have the tunnels, but beyond that you've got
the gates where you know the Palestinians the.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Gosins, because they're not really Palestinians.

Speaker 3 (10:59):
The Gosins would move in and out of those gates
and go into Israel for work. Wants to keep one
of these Hamas terrorists from freelancing. You know, you get
a lone wolf who maybe doesn't agree with this agreement,
who maybe is really upset about this agreement, and so

(11:21):
they go out. They you know, they as a clean skin,
nobody recognizes them as a Moss terrorist. They leave the gate,
they go into Israel to you know, go to work somewhere,
or to sell some you know, sell some of their
wares or vegetables or whatever, and they just murder a family.

(11:42):
I mean, I know it's all hypothetical, but I'm just
trying to be realistic about this. The military withdrawal, I understand,
is a requirement of a MOSS because they don't want
the idea of continuing to just bomb the crap out
of them and continue. I mean, the leadership of Moss
has been decimated. But if you're a true believer, the

(12:07):
elimination of your general, you're superior. If you're a true believer,
you see that as an opportunity. Oh, the boss has
been eliminated. Maybe now I can be the boss. Maybe
now I can become the leader. They're just like cockroaches
and they just propagate and propagate and propagate. So this

(12:33):
partial with military withdrawal, I understand why, But from Israeli perspective,
I'm not really sure I buy that. Well maybe from
an American perspective, I don't really buy it either. International
and domestic pressures. Israel's military truthfully, truthfully was exhausted.

Speaker 1 (12:56):
They were.

Speaker 3 (12:58):
Their deployments, they were reaching into the reserves, they were recruiting.
I mean, they were kind of like the Russians in
that regard, in that they were so shorthanded that they
were just exhausted and having to find anybody and everybody,
getting reserves, getting dual citizens, anybody they can find to

(13:19):
come and help fight for them. Well, that meant they
were facing also growing international isolation and domestic outcry in
the war. So all of that pressure combined forced Israel
into a diplomatic deal that demanded all these substantial compromises.
So the international pressure while the coming together of the

(13:43):
Arab nations because again trying to eliminate because they don't
like commas anymore than the Israelis do. They see it
as a destabilizing factor. So they're happy to see them
at least sort of being gone. But from an Israeli perspective,
you might think, but they're not really gone. You still
have Hudna there will. The last point that I would

(14:08):
make about in terms of seeing this as a lose
lose for Israel are the continued humanitarian and the security challenges.
Now Gaza is devastated, but the Hamas governance persists. Oh,
they may not be the official air quote here, the

(14:30):
official governing body as we get into phase two and three,
but Israel is going to remain vulnerable to asymmetrical warfare tactics,
the lone wolfs, the little tiny squads that will exist
here and there, the little cells that will exist here
and there. This agreement, best I can tell from what

(14:53):
I've had available to me to read, does not resolve
the fundamental conflict or the security threats. Then there's this
look at it from hamasa's perspective. Hamasa's leadership has publicly
celebrated the deal, has proof that they were not defeated

(15:14):
and that their resistance has forced Israel into these concessions.
Now a lot of that is pr bullcrap, but the
hostages release was framed as a victory secured through resistance
rather than through defeat. So the maintenance of Hamask governments
amidst the Israeli withdrawals kind of reinforces that concept. Now again,

(15:40):
I'm just trying to give you a different perspective of
how you're going to consume the news that you're going
to hear about what a great deal this is. Am
I just completely trying to destroy this deal and tell
you that, no, it's all bad. No, I'm just telling
you that, just don't believe all of the hype because

(16:02):
the hype even from the Israeli side, And I understand
why they're doing it. Don't forget Benjamin Nett and Yahoo
has his own internal political problems, interning his only internal
legal lawfare about corruption. So Benjamin Nett y'all has his
own political considerations too. But you and I are going

(16:24):
to be fed all of this information about what a
great deal this is for both sides and how it's
this lasting peace. And I just want you to be
cautious as you start to get fed that by the
cabal with Hamas from their perspective, sees this as a victory,
and you think, and you pile on top of that

(16:46):
the concept of Hadna. Now you can actually begin to
question how good is this deal. And there's some broader
implications too. Israel has a true strategic setback. They had
a strategy of what was called mowing the grass, temporarily

(17:07):
weakening her moss without full eradication. Well, there's limitations to that.
The war did not end decisively, the war, which has
kind of been our problem. Did the war in Afghanistan indecisively?
Did the war in Iraq indecisively? Did the war in
Vietnam indecisively? The Korean War has not even ended. It's

(17:32):
just a truce that preserves the status quo, and that
gives the moss time to go exercise and engage in hudding. Michael,

(17:55):
when it comes to ransom in you, we would pay
them to keep you have a great weekend.

Speaker 1 (18:02):
See that's what I knew. That's exactly what I expected.

Speaker 4 (18:06):
And missus Brown will even, you know, put in a
couple bucks for them to keep.

Speaker 1 (18:10):
She probably would. She probably would.

Speaker 3 (18:15):
So we're talking about the cease agreement, the ceasefire agreement,
the peace agreement. I'm not sure what it really is.
They can call it whatever they want to, and they
can put whatever moniker on that they want to. But
I'm still trying to figure out what is this really?
It is it? We know that it's at least partially

(18:36):
a cease fire, but beyond phase one where the idea
says we'll pull out because their perimeter, we're not going
to completely abandon the gaza, so we're going to pull out, Well,
we will have you. Once we pull out. That starts

(18:57):
the clock for seventy two hours for you to release
the hostages, and at least on the way in this morning,
as I'm diving through all the different stations trying to
figure out what the latest news is, there are some
commentators who are saying, but the seventy two hours, we're
not sure when that starts. So does that mean the

(19:19):
hostages will be released Sunday or Monday? And the only
reason I say say that is because as a follow
on to the discussion about the Israeli hostages, they don't
know anything yet about the bodies, because we still have
some dead hostages, including I think an American or two.

(19:40):
So when or if are those bodies going to be retrieved.
Is Hamas going to retrieve those or are they going
to pull the same kind of crap they pulled last
time and put bodies in You know, some of the
same boxes or caskets, or they are going to put
like somebody else in there, and it's not really who
they say it is. I mean, it's just a lot.

(20:04):
And don't get me wrong, I understand diplomatically, this is
an incredibly complicated agreement. That's why it's in phases. But
everybody see, you know, it's I think in this country,
and it's primarily driven by politics and the media that oh,

(20:26):
look what we did. We accomplished this, and that's the headline.
Because all you're doing is you're going for the headline,
You're going for the talking points, and then all the
real dirty work still has to be done. So we're
left with the impression that, oh, peace in the Middle East,
you know, and and as Trump says, peace forever.

Speaker 1 (20:48):
And I'm thinking, wait a minute, mister president.

Speaker 3 (20:52):
I understand why you say that politically, but we have
to be realistic. Maybe Trump doesn't understand the concept to huddnah.
I can't imagine that he does not, and I certainly
can't imagine that the diplomats that are working this don't
understand understand that. I mean, Hell's bills, we're dealing with
it in terms of al Qaeda, we're dealing with it

(21:14):
in terms of the hoothies. So the hoothies start, you know,
launching lobbying rockets in our ships. We blast the crap
out of them. They stop bothering us. And so now
we're going to go after Shell Corporation or whoever it is.
They just regrouped and went after somebody else. So this

(21:35):
first phase, cessation, let's just call it a cessation, is
just an initial step. So while the the agreement, I
just don't I can't call it a peace agreement. So
while the agreement offers an end to active hostilities and
it includes the return of hostages, it argued, I think

(22:00):
leaves Israel as the side that gave up more the
militant group HAMAS remains intact, at least for the time being.
They remain politically dominant in Gaza. Now how are you
going to and again now I'm just asking questions. If
HAMAS remains dominant politically in Gaza and the Peace Board

(22:25):
and this interim administrative body, let's call it that, an
administrative body that's somehow going to administer the what we
would call governance of Hamas. For example, you've got to
start distributing aid you have to start rebuilding infrastructure, rebuilding

(22:46):
homes and businesses. You have to start securing the ability
of the Gazen residents to restore some sort of normalcy
to their lives so that they can start engaging in again,
so they can rebuild businesses to feed and house themselves.

(23:07):
Who's going to administer all of that? Who's going to
pay for all of that? Stupid question, isn't it is?
Where's the United Nations? As I stopped to pause for
a moment and think through my numb skull about who

(23:27):
is going to pay for this? When I think about it,
I've not seen anything yet in terms of at least
the top lines we've been given about this agreement about
who's going to pay for it?

Speaker 1 (23:39):
And I haven't heard squad from the United Nations.

Speaker 3 (23:43):
Of course, we haven't heard squad from the United Nations
because they don't have the skill or the effort, and
quite frankly, there are a bunch of anti Semites anyway,
and they don't want Israel to exist in the first place.
How many times have we vetoed something in the Security
Council because it's been anti Submitic or it's been anti Israel.

(24:03):
So you think the UN's going to you think they're
going to take any lop any money off all the
income they get from US taxpayers to help rebuild this
or are we just going to do it directly? And
why in the world Israel do it? They'd be like
asking us to go in and rebuild. Oh wait a minute,

(24:27):
be careful what I say here, To go in and
rebuild a country that housed al Qaeda and hid al
Qaeda for a while until Ubl ran off to Pakistan.
We did that, and what do we have to show
for it? You kind of get where I'm going that.

(24:48):
It seems to me that some of these things aren't
exactly as they've been told to us. I'm not sure
that it's anything that we can do about it. Obviously,
it is beyond our control. It's all being negotiated by
these countries in the Middle East. But Washington Post this morning,

(25:16):
with Trump pressing for peace, net and Yahood adapts to
new political reality. The Israeli military said the ceasefire went
into effect midday local time. Now Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya,
who is under pressure, including from President Donald Trump, to
keep the peace. If you're Israel, why are we shifting

(25:42):
all of the responsibility onto Israel to keep the peace.
Isn't there some responsibility among the other Arab nations who
have more influence over Hamas than we do, that have
more influence over Hamas than obviously the Israelis do, who
have probably no influence over Hamas other than at the

(26:03):
point of a gun. The Prime Minister won his government
approved early Friday for a ceasefied hostage deal based on
Trump's peace plan. The agreement came into effect at midday,
according to the Israeli military, which said it was pulling
back along the updated deployment lines in preparation for the
ceasefire agreement in return of hostages. Gaz's Hamas run Interior

(26:27):
ministry said its security forces would deploy to areas Israeli
troops are withdrawing from. I rest my case. The Washington
Post is reporting that is the IDF pulls out, the
Hamas military remains fully armed, fully equipped, and is moving
into that what you might refer to as a demilitarized zone,

(26:51):
where the IDF has pulled out to some predetermined line
and Hamas is moving in. I I don't get it,
net y'all. Who's going to face an entirely different political
landscape than he was facing earlier in the year because

(27:11):
in Trump, I think net y'all, who finds an American
president that now appears far more invested in seeing peace
achieved than he is in securing the security in Israel's
security Hadnah Maybe maybe not, but I think the Israelis

(27:35):
may face even more international isolation after this.

Speaker 1 (27:40):
Agreement than they did before the agreement. They were going
to lose.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Lose situation, Michael, we can't even make peace with ourselves.
What makes us think that we can broker any kind
of peace between Israel and Palestine. I think that that's
a great point. And I think what we need to
recognize is this is primarily a cease fire. I think

(28:12):
it gives us an opportunity to reimagine and a do
over in terms of how Gaza governs itself. Now, this
peace board, this administrative group that's going to oversee the
rebuilding of Gaza, they can't exist forever. At some point,

(28:36):
just based on historical records, the people in Gaza are
going to want to engage in some sort of self
governance and or we're going to see a repeat of
what's happened before and some other iteration of Hamas will
move in and in the facade of free and open elections,

(28:59):
which they may technically be free and open elections, but
nonetheless that people get elected are actually wolves in sheep clothing.
They're either Hamas or there's some other terrorist organization. And
then they will, assuming there are free and fair elections,
they will get elected. And over time, as they exercise

(29:20):
their Hydna, their rehabilitation and they're regrouping, they will once
again take over.

Speaker 1 (29:27):
Leather rense repeat.

Speaker 3 (29:30):
In fact, intelligence from Israeli forces have noted that the
Hamas fighters concentrating in key locations like Gaza City indicates
that they're doing some preparation for defensive or renewed offensive operations.
There are some estimates that suggests thousands of AMAS fighters

(29:52):
are amassing anywhere between three five thousand fighters. According to
the BBC, they're shifting tactics from conventional military structure to
guerrilla warfare gorilla urban warfare as a matter of fact,
again is rare. The military intelligence reports destruction of Hamas's

(30:15):
infrastructure their weapon stock pile, but they note also which
never gets reported. So while IDF intel reports destruction of
the Hamas infrastructure, their weapon stocked pile, and their leadership structure.
It also notes ongoing efforts by HAMAS to rebuild military

(30:37):
capacity in stockpile arms. Do you think we've gotten rid
of all the tunnel networks?

Speaker 1 (30:42):
Probably not.

Speaker 3 (30:43):
They're certainly at diminished levels, you know, compared to pre
war levels. But the intel agencies have identified some very
specific behavioral changes in hamas's posture before major conflicts, shifts
and rhetoric, alteration of force deployments, public communications signaling future

(31:06):
intent at some point to resume hostilities and maybe they're
not doing that now, but they gets back to Huddnah.
Reports from inside gads are revealed that despite all the
military pressure and the bombardments, there's still armed factions and
militant networks that persist. What are we going to do
with those and at what point do those little cells acting?

(31:29):
Because when you think about the destruction of the leadership,
that means you've lost all your command and control. And
don't get me wrong, they may be you know, these disparate,
kind of seemingly asymmetrical organizations of terror, which is what
a terrorist organization is, but they still have exercise of
command and control. The worker bees out there you know,

(31:54):
running around with the rifles, you know, killing people and
you know, taking people hostages and stealing the the aid
and the humanitarian food that comes in.

Speaker 1 (32:02):
All of that.

Speaker 3 (32:04):
They're still lon wolves, but with the leadership structure, they
know that they're subject to well, probably being killed for
disobeying orders. With that command and control structure decimated, what's
to prevent them from hiding? And then when the new

(32:25):
administrative group comes in again, exercise hadn't it let them,
you know, start rebuilding? In fact, it would be to
their benefit because the more that the infrastructure and the
buildings get reconstructed, that provides them what more additional places
to hide. And then whether it's one year, five years,

(32:46):
or ten years down the road, what have they done. Oh,
They've used that infrastructure that we've built to now start
the attacks all over again. I'm not trying to be
Debbie Downer here, I'm trying to be Ronnie Reel realistic
about what's going on. All of the intelligence picture underscores

(33:06):
how fragile this agreement is. I think everybody, everybody should
understand that it's fragile. So can we just kind of
tap down a little bit all of the hoop law
over this. Yes, I'm glad the killing has stopped for
the time being. I'm glad the hostages are going to
be released. All the right question at what costs? And

(33:29):
then if you understand Islam, particularly the Islamism, because we
haven't eliminated them, as Netanyahu's goal was, those little radicals,
those little cockroaches, they're still out there.