December 18, 2025 • 9 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch gives the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
And for the very last time in twenty twenty five,
this catch up with Phil Duncan out of weather Watch.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Good afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Good A good A.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
How are you doing pretty good?
Speaker 1 (00:40):
But I'll tell you what it looks like. We've got
some rain on the forecast down here in the South,
high of like ten or eleven today and it looks
as though we've got this for the next seven days
or so.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Do you know what. I look at the rain radar
that was across this morning. It's probably one of the
more widespread rain events that I've seen around south with
than a while. It's so yes and rain if you
want to call it that, and a cold day, yeah,
like going from maximum of eleven and overnight low of five.
And believe it or not, as we go into Sunday
night Monday morning, when the clear, clearer skies come in
(01:14):
and the winds fade out more, there's a real chance
we can have a frost on either Sunday morning or
Monday morning and overnight low on Sunday nights down to
two degrees in Gore, which is definitely in the frost territory.
So it's not a high chance of a frost because
it's possibly just the ground's so warm now, but it
(01:34):
is definitely going to be a colder weekend, what I
would describe as a wintry weekend. It warms up on
Monday to nineteen or twenty degrees. Tuesday, you definitely should
be around twenty twenty one or so. But then the
next cold front arrives on Christmas Eve, and then unfortunately,
it looks as though we're going to be stuck with
low pressure and colder air flows as we go into
(01:55):
Boxing Day and next weekend, where I'm seeing maximum temperature
next Friday, next Saturday, next Sunday of only fourteen degrees
and overnight lows of just six or seven. So it's
an especially cold run of weather coming into Southland, fij
Audland and Otago and even maybe parts of Westland.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Are we going like those right through into a New
Year's Eve? Would you say?
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I don't think so. In fact, I was looking at
the weather maps before, and there's a lot of the
weather maps are messy at the moment. So when you
go out more than five days, you'll see a low,
and then the next day when you look at that
same low again, it's changed shape and it's moved areas
and so it's changed the forecast. But we are seeing
a lot of low pressure south of the country. There
(02:38):
may be some high pressure coming in around the end
of the year, but at the same time the tropics
could be waking up and producing stuff. So we've got
we're monitoring this summer, not just December, but I think
the whole summer. We're watching tropical lows that could come
our way, and we're watching the Southern Ocean be stormy,
and I think, obviously for you guys, the Southern Ocean
(02:59):
is the main driving force of the weather, which means
westerlies and southwesterlies are probably going to be off and
on for a little bit longer. But yeah, it looks
like a cold end to twenty twenty five. I'm sad
to report because you guys have had a bit of
a colder, bleaker kind of end of the year, more
so than other parts of New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
So what are we going to see if for the
continuation of summer.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
As you gaze into your crystal ball, which you don't
like to do, but we've always talked about the seasons
being three weeks behind where they probably normally are.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Well, I think this year, it's probably not so much
about the season being behind. It's more about the fact
that the Southern Ocean is very stormy and so that
is driving what this sort of late spring weather pattern.
The longest range weather map I can go to today
goes out to lunchtime January third Saturday, January the third,
and it's like this is not locked in, but it
(03:50):
explains exactly where we're going this summer. So there are
on this map which like I say, could change. There
are two low pressure zones north of New Zealand, one
directly north of the now violand the other one near
New Caledonia, so both of those would be worth monitoring.
There is a stormy low east of the Channam Island,
so that's moving away from us. But there's another low
pressure zone, which means all to the north of New
(04:12):
Zealand and all to the east of New Zealand there's lows.
And in south of the country there is a storm
and I mean well south over the Southern Ocean, closer
to Antarctica than southwest. But the air pressure for that
is nine fifty eight. That's a proper storm. And then
you've got high pressure smackdang over New Zealand, bringing west
to northwest winds which would be warm and dry and
sunny to Southland. But that weather mat that I'm looking at,
(04:35):
like I say, not locked in, But what it shows
you is low pressure north of the country that I've
got to keep an eye on as a weather forecaster,
and storm south of the country that I've got to
keep an eye on, especially for you guys. And then
these high pressure zone coming out of Australia, they're the
ones that will block and keep away these lows. So
when those highs aren't over us, we're probably going to
(04:55):
get either a tropical low coming down or a southern
Ocean cold front coming up that's out of the recipe.
There's a lot of energy being pushed into us from
the north and the south. Those high pressure zones this
year are going to be more critical than maybe in
other summers when we don't have quite so many low
pressure zones trying to zone into us.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
I'm looking at Hobart's forecasts for the next seven days.
Now you talk more often than not about our weather
being very similar to Tasmania. They've got highs of fifteen
twenty two nineteen eighteen thirteen, fourteen and late teen's, early
twenties very similar to what we're experiencing. So is it
fair to correlate the Tasmanian we're the cycle of Southland one.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Hundred percent, and in fact even even Victoria, because Melbourne
has had a similar run. How many differences Victoria can
get a northerly wind and you know, one day at
seventeen degrees and the next day it's forty two. That
doesn't happen in.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Southland maybe in the woolshed, but not certainly not today.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
That's right, that's right. You need a real northwester cranking
out of Australia to get to forty degrees at New
Zealand at that pretty much happens in Canterbury, although Central
Otago gets pretty close to it as well. But yeah,
that's the weather that goes on in the southeast corner
of Australia. So basically Victoria, Tasmania, especially Tasy though, yeah,
we share similar weather patterns, and especially the lower half
(06:15):
of the South Island this past spring, but Tasmania has
had a worse run of weather than Southland has had.
So I say that to make you feel better about everything.
But Yeah, they've had a really really bleak spring. It
has been much colder, they've had more wintry outbreaks, they've
had more snow on the mountains than we have had.
But we're making up for that over this current week
(06:37):
and weekend and next week as well, and we're playing
a bit of catch up now with the cold changes
coming through, mostly for the South Island, but even all
of New Zealand will get this cold change coming in
tonight and tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
So what you're telling me is a new slogan for Southland.
Were like Tasmania about without the snakes, yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
And without yeah, all the other poisonous stuff and the
Australia and the accidents and the you know, you don't
got your own accent, So.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Yeah, there we got the r thing going on. Phil. Hey,
we'll leave it there.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Thank you very much for your time on the show.
We get a lot of great feedback regarding weather Watch
and what you're doing. Enjoy the fist of season and
it's doing all again next year. We really appreciate your
time on the muster. Phil Duncan, thank you.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Jamie. Jamie got a flip thank you and you appreciate
it like I really do. Appreciate the support you give me.
I love your audience. I get comments from them. They
write to my YouTube page and the weather watch site
from time to time. So Merry Christmas to everyone listening.
Have a great summer, and don't shoot the weather man
like I'm only the messenger. I'm not making the weather.
(07:39):
I think I'm going to roll in a high presser.
I'll try and find some high pressure for you.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
You do that, good on your fill, all right, cheers buds, laugh.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Out loud with ag proud because life on the land
can be a laughing matter. Brought to us by sheer
Well data working to help the livestock farmer. One if
my dog only brings back to bull because he thinks
I like throwing it. If poisonous as passed his conspiry date,
is it more poisonous or is it no longer poisonous?
Do twins ever realize that one of them is unplanned?
(08:10):
Maybe oxygen is slowly killing you, but it just takes
seventy five to one hundred years to work. The word
swims upside down and still swims intentionally. Losing a game
of rock paper scissors is just as hard as trying
to win it.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
And last one.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
One hundred years ago everybody owned a horse and only
the rich hair cars. But these days everyone has cars
and only the rich hairf horses. Congratulations Sally Ross, the
winner of the sheerwel Pack as part of the Muster
Christmas giveaway. Congratulations Sally. Somebody will be in touch very shortly.
The music today is Motley Crewe Kickstart My Heart, the
(08:45):
Mere Family favorite for this time of year, as we
do for the last segment every year on the Muster.
Thank you to all our contributors, to all our sponsors,
but as well you the listener. I really appreciate each
and every one of you, especially with the feedback we
get here on the show.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
We'll leave it there. My name's Andy Muir.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
This has been the Muster on Hakanui thanks to Peterson
Neddi's twenty twenty five edition Merry Christmas
And for the very last time in twenty twenty five,
this catch up with Phil Duncan out of weather Watch.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Good afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Good A good A.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
How are you doing pretty good?
Speaker 1 (00:40):
But I'll tell you what it looks like. We've got
some rain on the forecast down here in the South,
high of like ten or eleven today and it looks
as though we've got this for the next seven days
or so.
Speaker 3 (00:50):
Do you know what. I look at the rain radar
that was across this morning. It's probably one of the
more widespread rain events that I've seen around south with
than a while. It's so yes and rain if you
want to call it that, and a cold day, yeah,
like going from maximum of eleven and overnight low of five.
And believe it or not, as we go into Sunday
night Monday morning, when the clear, clearer skies come in
(01:14):
and the winds fade out more, there's a real chance
we can have a frost on either Sunday morning or
Monday morning and overnight low on Sunday nights down to
two degrees in Gore, which is definitely in the frost territory.
So it's not a high chance of a frost because
it's possibly just the ground's so warm now, but it
(01:34):
is definitely going to be a colder weekend, what I
would describe as a wintry weekend. It warms up on
Monday to nineteen or twenty degrees. Tuesday, you definitely should
be around twenty twenty one or so. But then the
next cold front arrives on Christmas Eve, and then unfortunately,
it looks as though we're going to be stuck with
low pressure and colder air flows as we go into
(01:55):
Boxing Day and next weekend, where I'm seeing maximum temperature
next Friday, next Saturday, next Sunday of only fourteen degrees
and overnight lows of just six or seven. So it's
an especially cold run of weather coming into Southland, fij
Audland and Otago and even maybe parts of Westland.
Speaker 2 (02:14):
Are we going like those right through into a New
Year's Eve? Would you say?
Speaker 3 (02:18):
I don't think so. In fact, I was looking at
the weather maps before, and there's a lot of the
weather maps are messy at the moment. So when you
go out more than five days, you'll see a low,
and then the next day when you look at that
same low again, it's changed shape and it's moved areas
and so it's changed the forecast. But we are seeing
a lot of low pressure south of the country. There
(02:38):
may be some high pressure coming in around the end
of the year, but at the same time the tropics
could be waking up and producing stuff. So we've got
we're monitoring this summer, not just December, but I think
the whole summer. We're watching tropical lows that could come
our way, and we're watching the Southern Ocean be stormy,
and I think, obviously for you guys, the Southern Ocean
(02:59):
is the main driving force of the weather, which means
westerlies and southwesterlies are probably going to be off and
on for a little bit longer. But yeah, it looks
like a cold end to twenty twenty five. I'm sad
to report because you guys have had a bit of
a colder, bleaker kind of end of the year, more
so than other parts of New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
So what are we going to see if for the
continuation of summer.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
As you gaze into your crystal ball, which you don't
like to do, but we've always talked about the seasons
being three weeks behind where they probably normally are.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Well, I think this year, it's probably not so much
about the season being behind. It's more about the fact
that the Southern Ocean is very stormy and so that
is driving what this sort of late spring weather pattern.
The longest range weather map I can go to today
goes out to lunchtime January third Saturday, January the third,
and it's like this is not locked in, but it
(03:50):
explains exactly where we're going this summer. So there are
on this map which like I say, could change. There
are two low pressure zones north of New Zealand, one
directly north of the now violand the other one near
New Caledonia, so both of those would be worth monitoring.
There is a stormy low east of the Channam Island,
so that's moving away from us. But there's another low
pressure zone, which means all to the north of New
(04:12):
Zealand and all to the east of New Zealand there's lows.
And in south of the country there is a storm
and I mean well south over the Southern Ocean, closer
to Antarctica than southwest. But the air pressure for that
is nine fifty eight. That's a proper storm. And then
you've got high pressure smackdang over New Zealand, bringing west
to northwest winds which would be warm and dry and
sunny to Southland. But that weather mat that I'm looking at,
(04:35):
like I say, not locked in, But what it shows
you is low pressure north of the country that I've
got to keep an eye on as a weather forecaster,
and storm south of the country that I've got to
keep an eye on, especially for you guys. And then
these high pressure zone coming out of Australia, they're the
ones that will block and keep away these lows. So
when those highs aren't over us, we're probably going to
(04:55):
get either a tropical low coming down or a southern
Ocean cold front coming up that's out of the recipe.
There's a lot of energy being pushed into us from
the north and the south. Those high pressure zones this
year are going to be more critical than maybe in
other summers when we don't have quite so many low
pressure zones trying to zone into us.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
I'm looking at Hobart's forecasts for the next seven days.
Now you talk more often than not about our weather
being very similar to Tasmania. They've got highs of fifteen
twenty two nineteen eighteen thirteen, fourteen and late teen's, early
twenties very similar to what we're experiencing. So is it
fair to correlate the Tasmanian we're the cycle of Southland one.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
Hundred percent, and in fact even even Victoria, because Melbourne
has had a similar run. How many differences Victoria can
get a northerly wind and you know, one day at
seventeen degrees and the next day it's forty two. That
doesn't happen in.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Southland maybe in the woolshed, but not certainly not today.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
That's right, that's right. You need a real northwester cranking
out of Australia to get to forty degrees at New
Zealand at that pretty much happens in Canterbury, although Central
Otago gets pretty close to it as well. But yeah,
that's the weather that goes on in the southeast corner
of Australia. So basically Victoria, Tasmania, especially Tasy though, yeah,
we share similar weather patterns, and especially the lower half
(06:15):
of the South Island this past spring, but Tasmania has
had a worse run of weather than Southland has had.
So I say that to make you feel better about everything.
But Yeah, they've had a really really bleak spring. It
has been much colder, they've had more wintry outbreaks, they've
had more snow on the mountains than we have had.
But we're making up for that over this current week
(06:37):
and weekend and next week as well, and we're playing
a bit of catch up now with the cold changes
coming through, mostly for the South Island, but even all
of New Zealand will get this cold change coming in
tonight and tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
So what you're telling me is a new slogan for Southland.
Were like Tasmania about without the snakes, yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
And without yeah, all the other poisonous stuff and the
Australia and the accidents and the you know, you don't
got your own accent, So.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Yeah, there we got the r thing going on. Phil. Hey,
we'll leave it there.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
Thank you very much for your time on the show.
We get a lot of great feedback regarding weather Watch
and what you're doing. Enjoy the fist of season and
it's doing all again next year. We really appreciate your
time on the muster. Phil Duncan, thank you.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Jamie. Jamie got a flip thank you and you appreciate
it like I really do. Appreciate the support you give me.
I love your audience. I get comments from them. They
write to my YouTube page and the weather watch site
from time to time. So Merry Christmas to everyone listening.
Have a great summer, and don't shoot the weather man
like I'm only the messenger. I'm not making the weather.
(07:39):
I think I'm going to roll in a high presser.
I'll try and find some high pressure for you.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
You do that, good on your fill, all right, cheers buds, laugh.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Out loud with ag proud because life on the land
can be a laughing matter. Brought to us by sheer
Well data working to help the livestock farmer. One if
my dog only brings back to bull because he thinks
I like throwing it. If poisonous as passed his conspiry date,
is it more poisonous or is it no longer poisonous?
Do twins ever realize that one of them is unplanned?
(08:10):
Maybe oxygen is slowly killing you, but it just takes
seventy five to one hundred years to work. The word
swims upside down and still swims intentionally. Losing a game
of rock paper scissors is just as hard as trying
to win it.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
And last one.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
One hundred years ago everybody owned a horse and only
the rich hair cars. But these days everyone has cars
and only the rich hairf horses. Congratulations Sally Ross, the
winner of the sheerwel Pack as part of the Muster
Christmas giveaway. Congratulations Sally. Somebody will be in touch very shortly.
The music today is Motley Crewe Kickstart My Heart, the
(08:45):
Mere Family favorite for this time of year, as we
do for the last segment every year on the Muster.
Thank you to all our contributors, to all our sponsors,
but as well you the listener. I really appreciate each
and every one of you, especially with the feedback we
get here on the show.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
We'll leave it there. My name's Andy Muir.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
This has been the Muster on Hakanui thanks to Peterson
Neddi's twenty twenty five edition Merry Christmas
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