March 10, 2026 • 7 mins
David Frame OF Craigs IP looks at the challenges that the Middle East conflict will have on the Kiwi economy.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Shee said the Muster Financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners
in Gore. This information is general in nature and it's
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Wee David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners catches up once again.
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Andy. How's everything in the investment world.
It's bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
It's a bit of a while roller coaster at the moment.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
It's a hell of a roller coaster at the moment.
It's like being a dream world.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Yeah, I think dream world's better than working in the
sheer markets at the moment. But yeah, we've seen this before.
It's just rarely choppy times.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, dreamwel is probably just as expensive as what we're
seeing around tire And for the obvious reasons, say, Okay,
we've got this situation in the Middle East is being
dictated by America. America is morale, thisst dictating what's going
on around the world at the moment too, and we're
just having to suffer ramifications.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Yeah, pretty much. Actually, I think America grant Israel seemed
to be calling the shots. Trump's talking a big, big talk,
but it seems to be chopping and changing day by day.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
What did somebody say he's one tweet away from ending
this war. That's just how the guy operates.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Yeah, I think if you see the rhetoric coming out
of Iran, then I'd suggest he's not one tweet away
from ending the war. But yeah, I hope it's resolved quickly.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
What are we going to see here as well regaining
interest rates and the likes? I mean, there's a lot
there for us to decipher the ocr for example, here's
going to have to be changes, Yeah, there are.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I think the impact of this latest battle really will
be how long it lasts for. So he's seeing that
the price of oil has been bouncing around. It was
up thirty percent the other day and one day it's
probably down twenty twenty five percent. They reckon the oil
will keep on flowing. But then on CNN today, I
see that Iran might be putting in some sort of
(01:58):
mines and that straight which might stop the shipping. So
you know, how long does it go on for? And
when is there some certainty if it keeps on going on?
And oil does hold up high, then we see that
the cost of fertilizer will go up for sure, and
then we see the impact on the general consumer, and
(02:19):
then we could see, you know, recessionary type effects. So
we all hope that it's short lived.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Look put it into context. When you do they do
the discount days and gore. Generally, the consensus or the
pattern I see is twelve cents on a Monday and
about eighteen to possibly twenty cents discount, especially at the
South service stations here and go on a Thursday, last
Thursday into Friday morning about seven am to a finish,
you can get a liter a diesel for about a
(02:47):
dollar fifty three to a dollar fifty seven. The same
diesel now is around two dollars twenty to two dollars thirty.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Yes, And I noticed I filled up my ute the
other day and it was two dollars for the first
time I can remember. So yeah, pretty disheartening. And if
you're in the agricultural sector, that those prices really start
biting pretty.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Quickly all of a sudden. Brent crude is a term
that we're hearing a lot these days, and just very quickly.
As a side note, do you know how brent crude
got its name.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
I'd suggest a dude named Brent, but I'm probably wrong.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
You're pretty close. It was named after the Brent oil
field in the North Sea, which was discovered by Shall
in the nineteen seventies. Of course, show is now z
in New Zealand. So there you go. But a useless trivia.
But brent crude oil it's all the rage. Yeah it is.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And if you look at the actual oil markets, there
are probably twenty different metrics and markets and pricings for oil,
so the main guts of its oil is more expensive.
It could stay up there for a while.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Like said Australia, their fuel is I think it's more
expensive in New Zealand's I think this is the first
time ever.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yeah, which is quite staggering, isn't it. And I guess yeah.
You know, for the general consumer out there, we've seen
price increases over the last few years. We've all been
winging about the cost of living, and here's just another
factor that could stop consumers spending money down the street.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Well you're going to have to. I mean, all of
a sudden, you're looking at your budget and you've got
another twenty bucks a week just to fill up a
tank that takes a bit. It's a big hit. Eighty
bucks a month. Yeah, it's major.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
And some of those people that travel every day to
Macargyll from Gore or other places, then it's going to
be more, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Absolutely? What about currencies, Well, are we going to see
any change there? We're going trends.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
We've seen the American dollar strengthen a little bit. It's
only marginal, so we haven't seen any wild swings in
it yet. But if we head up head into this
for too long and we end up in recession and
countries like New Zealand are generally out of favor in
those conditions, that would help our exporters, which is probably
(04:56):
a tick, but it would probably imports. Yeah, it would
exacerbate fuel price any other costs that we're bringing into
the country.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
So this is a matter of just waiting and seeing
what happens, pretty much on a twenty four hour basis. Yeah,
it is.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I mean, the reports suggest that the Iranians might be
running out of arms. Their new leader seems to be
up in arms, though he doesn't look like he's ready
to roll over. So yeah, we'll just have to sit
back and look at this.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
From your viewpoint of us A few people this as
far as benefits for New Zealand, we are a trading nation.
We are at the bottom of the world effectively. Do
you see anything that could be positive for us out
of all of us taking out the exporting element.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, I think the only well, a couple of things.
We probably still look like the good guys. We haven't
barreled into this conflict. And the other thing is that
our exports might be still pretty good. And if our
dollars weakening can weaken against the US, then we're probably
going to export a little bit more, so tiny marginal gains.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
That aside, though, we look on the local front and
these prices just continue to astound, let's be honest, terrific. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
I feel really good for the farmers out there and
the whole community because, yeah, the good prices will flow
through to all parts of Southland's economies.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Are you seeing the bounce back in a town.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Like gord Personally, I am. When I walk down the street,
I see more people doing more things. It just seems
to be a bit more positive. Definitely, more people smiling
despite the rubbish summer that we've had. You know there
seems to be a more positive vibe in the community.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Well that's my favorite saying smile. It confuses people. Too
easy to do. Hey, David, right, you guys have changed
office now. As Sam said, possibly the best billboard outside
of a supermarket. You never find your opposite New World.
Where exactly is your location?
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So one Ierk Street, you can't miss up great building.
Call in a you're in.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Town opposite New werel Yes, good on you, David, always good.
Appreciate your time.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Thanks Andy, he said, Hi, nice.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
To meet you. You David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners.
This is the muster up. Next Lana Marshall talking about
the Xander McDonald Awards that were held last night.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Oh God, to get there. There's bed of you.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
We can dance, we can dance all that, we could
dance in the morning,
Shee said the Muster Financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners
in Gore. This information is general in nature and it's
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Wee David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners catches up once again.
Good afternoon, Good afternoon, Andy. How's everything in the investment world.
It's bouncing around.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
It's a bit of a while roller coaster at the moment.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
It's a hell of a roller coaster at the moment.
It's like being a dream world.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Yeah, I think dream world's better than working in the
sheer markets at the moment. But yeah, we've seen this before.
It's just rarely choppy times.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Well, dreamwel is probably just as expensive as what we're
seeing around tire And for the obvious reasons, say, Okay,
we've got this situation in the Middle East is being
dictated by America. America is morale, thisst dictating what's going
on around the world at the moment too, and we're
just having to suffer ramifications.
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Yeah, pretty much. Actually, I think America grant Israel seemed
to be calling the shots. Trump's talking a big, big talk,
but it seems to be chopping and changing day by day.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
What did somebody say he's one tweet away from ending
this war. That's just how the guy operates.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Yeah, I think if you see the rhetoric coming out
of Iran, then I'd suggest he's not one tweet away
from ending the war. But yeah, I hope it's resolved quickly.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
What are we going to see here as well regaining
interest rates and the likes? I mean, there's a lot
there for us to decipher the ocr for example, here's
going to have to be changes, Yeah, there are.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
I think the impact of this latest battle really will
be how long it lasts for. So he's seeing that
the price of oil has been bouncing around. It was
up thirty percent the other day and one day it's
probably down twenty twenty five percent. They reckon the oil
will keep on flowing. But then on CNN today, I
see that Iran might be putting in some sort of
(01:58):
mines and that straight which might stop the shipping. So
you know, how long does it go on for? And
when is there some certainty if it keeps on going on?
And oil does hold up high, then we see that
the cost of fertilizer will go up for sure, and
then we see the impact on the general consumer, and
(02:19):
then we could see, you know, recessionary type effects. So
we all hope that it's short lived.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Look put it into context. When you do they do
the discount days and gore. Generally, the consensus or the
pattern I see is twelve cents on a Monday and
about eighteen to possibly twenty cents discount, especially at the
South service stations here and go on a Thursday, last
Thursday into Friday morning about seven am to a finish,
you can get a liter a diesel for about a
(02:47):
dollar fifty three to a dollar fifty seven. The same
diesel now is around two dollars twenty to two dollars thirty.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
Yes, And I noticed I filled up my ute the
other day and it was two dollars for the first
time I can remember. So yeah, pretty disheartening. And if
you're in the agricultural sector, that those prices really start
biting pretty.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Quickly all of a sudden. Brent crude is a term
that we're hearing a lot these days, and just very quickly.
As a side note, do you know how brent crude
got its name.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
I'd suggest a dude named Brent, but I'm probably wrong.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
You're pretty close. It was named after the Brent oil
field in the North Sea, which was discovered by Shall
in the nineteen seventies. Of course, show is now z
in New Zealand. So there you go. But a useless trivia.
But brent crude oil it's all the rage. Yeah it is.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And if you look at the actual oil markets, there
are probably twenty different metrics and markets and pricings for oil,
so the main guts of its oil is more expensive.
It could stay up there for a while.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Like said Australia, their fuel is I think it's more
expensive in New Zealand's I think this is the first
time ever.
Speaker 3 (03:56):
Yeah, which is quite staggering, isn't it. And I guess yeah.
You know, for the general consumer out there, we've seen
price increases over the last few years. We've all been
winging about the cost of living, and here's just another
factor that could stop consumers spending money down the street.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Well you're going to have to. I mean, all of
a sudden, you're looking at your budget and you've got
another twenty bucks a week just to fill up a
tank that takes a bit. It's a big hit. Eighty
bucks a month. Yeah, it's major.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
And some of those people that travel every day to
Macargyll from Gore or other places, then it's going to
be more, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Absolutely? What about currencies, Well, are we going to see
any change there? We're going trends.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
We've seen the American dollar strengthen a little bit. It's
only marginal, so we haven't seen any wild swings in
it yet. But if we head up head into this
for too long and we end up in recession and
countries like New Zealand are generally out of favor in
those conditions, that would help our exporters, which is probably
(04:56):
a tick, but it would probably imports. Yeah, it would
exacerbate fuel price any other costs that we're bringing into
the country.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
So this is a matter of just waiting and seeing
what happens, pretty much on a twenty four hour basis. Yeah,
it is.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I mean, the reports suggest that the Iranians might be
running out of arms. Their new leader seems to be
up in arms, though he doesn't look like he's ready
to roll over. So yeah, we'll just have to sit
back and look at this.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
From your viewpoint of us A few people this as
far as benefits for New Zealand, we are a trading nation.
We are at the bottom of the world effectively. Do
you see anything that could be positive for us out
of all of us taking out the exporting element.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
Yeah, I think the only well, a couple of things.
We probably still look like the good guys. We haven't
barreled into this conflict. And the other thing is that
our exports might be still pretty good. And if our
dollars weakening can weaken against the US, then we're probably
going to export a little bit more, so tiny marginal gains.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
That aside, though, we look on the local front and
these prices just continue to astound, let's be honest, terrific. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
I feel really good for the farmers out there and
the whole community because, yeah, the good prices will flow
through to all parts of Southland's economies.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Are you seeing the bounce back in a town.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Like gord Personally, I am. When I walk down the street,
I see more people doing more things. It just seems
to be a bit more positive. Definitely, more people smiling
despite the rubbish summer that we've had. You know there
seems to be a more positive vibe in the community.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Well that's my favorite saying smile. It confuses people. Too
easy to do. Hey, David, right, you guys have changed
office now. As Sam said, possibly the best billboard outside
of a supermarket. You never find your opposite New World.
Where exactly is your location?
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So one Ierk Street, you can't miss up great building.
Call in a you're in.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Town opposite New werel Yes, good on you, David, always good.
Appreciate your time.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Thanks Andy, he said, Hi, nice.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
To meet you. You David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners.
This is the muster up. Next Lana Marshall talking about
the Xander McDonald Awards that were held last night.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Oh God, to get there. There's bed of you.
Speaker 3 (07:21):
We can dance, we can dance all that, we could
dance in the morning,
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