Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Every fifty years, normal people get incredibly rich. Right now,
we're fourteen years into the next cycle. Now Intel went
up twenty three thousand percent, Apple one point five million percent,
Microsoft fifty seven thousand percent. But here's what nobody tells
you about these legendary returns. They followed an exact pattern
that's happening again right now, and most people are looking
(00:23):
at it completely the wrong way.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
I'm Mark Moss.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
I've been building and selling tech companies since the dot
com boom. I've been using the power of cycles to
drive my investing thesis. Today, I'm a partner at a
leading bitcoin venture fund, and I advise companies building the
future of finance on bitcoin. And in this video, I'm
going to walk you through the same system, the same
signals that we use to make decisions, and how you
can use them to including why you didn't miss bitcoin
(00:49):
and what's coming next. So let's go all right, So
we're going to talk about the fifty year cycle and
basically how we can put ourselves in a position to
have money just come right to us and right into accounts,
sort of.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
Like the great one. Wayne Gretzky. He said that I
always skated to where the puck is going to be.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Well, we're going to show you how to get to
where the money is going to be. And we understand
that because we know that money rotates, it transfers, and
it follows predictable patterns. As a matter of fact, one
pattern I talk about all the time as a pattern
that's been happening over and over and over again over
the last three hundred years. As a matter of fact,
it's happened now six times in three hundred years. Now
(01:26):
we can see the beauty of it happening over and
over and over and over is that each time it happens,
it's more likely to happen again. And we can see
that it has a very predictable pattern within it. And
if we understand the predictable pattern, then we know that
we should be adjusting our strategies with Then it's a blueprint.
What I learned early in my investing career really was
(01:46):
in two thousand and eight, is there's no such thing
as good and bad timing. There's good and bad strategies,
and so we have to adjust our strategies as we
go through these, specifically through the four distinct phases. Now,
the beauty for us is that we understand that it's
always been the same blueprint, and when we look back,
we can see that the richest people in history came
from each one of these cycles. The last fifty years,
(02:09):
the only way to get really rich was telecom, internet computers.
Right before that, it was four GMGE. Before that, it
was banking, or it was Steell Andrew Carnigieer was Vanderbilder,
Rockefeller with oil. So each one of these technological revolutions
I call them quantum wave cycles, made new generational wealth.
And like I said, there's a repeatable blueprint that we
(02:30):
can follow. Now we know that the last one was
nineteen seventy one, which was really represented by Intel because
it was the first microprocess that brought the entire computer,
phone and internet revolution around, and it went up so fast.
It went up twenty three thousand percent in the first phase.
(02:51):
But then it had a second phase, a third phase,
and a four phase, and most investors completely missed out.
But I don't want that to happen to you, So
let me show you exactly actly how all this works. Okay,
Like I said, first of all, there is a universal
pattern that repeats over and over and over again, here's
what it looks like. Okay, So in this four phase pattern,
we have four distinct phases. The first one is what's
(03:14):
called the eruption phase. The technology is invented, everyone's attracted
to it, all the speculators rushing. They start pushing the
asset prices up, and it's mainly driven by retel people,
individual people. Small check size is going in, but there's
this frenzy or this eruption that happens. Then we go
into the second phase, which is the surge or the
frenzy phase. Now, this is where the big money starts
(03:36):
getting invested, they start getting interested, and the big check
size is coming in. Now, this is where the bulk
of the move comes from. Now, once it hits the
third phase, this is where it's starting to kind of
go into everyday life. The returns aren't near as big obviously,
most of the risk has been gone, and by the
time we get to the fourth phase, that is where
(03:58):
the cycle is pretty much over. Now we can see
I sort of illustrated here for you. This is about
where we're at right here. We're just starting to ramp
up to have all of this growth. So it's important
that you understand this right now before it's all over. Okay,
So now that you understand that there's these four distinct phases,
let me show you how we look at this.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
The beauty of this is that.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
While most people think in phase one they've completely missed out,
the reality is that phase two that's our sweet spot.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Phase two is.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
Where the bulk of the money is made, and it's
made with a lot less risk. Let me show you how.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Now.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
First off, phase one is huge, all right, Like I said,
Bitcoin went up by a lot. Intel in that first
phase went up by a lot, So it's huge, don't
get me wrong. But the problem is is that most
people get faked out.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
So they see it go up by a lot and
they think, oh, I missed it. I should have bought earlier.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
It's too expensive, too expensive compared to where it was before,
not realizing that Phase two is where the bulk of
the wealth is made.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Phase two is always bigger. We can see it in
this chart right here.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
We use when we talk about technology, we use something
called an S curve.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
So an S curve is sort.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Of how the technology is diffused, and the basically the
way it works is the time it takes to go
from zero to ten percent adoption is the same time
it takes to go from ten percent to ninety percent,
So this same time is about this same time, and
again this makes it like a parabolic run. Now it
gets even better than that. So not only is the
(05:24):
bulk of the growth there, it's safer. The other reason
why is the acid this risk g ass has been
shaken out, but also because the money pool is literally
a thousand times bigger. So again, in the first phase,
it's individual check sizes, it's mom and pop, its retail investing.
But phase two is where the institutions, the sovereigns come
in with hundreds of billions of dollars. So it's it's
(05:46):
a bigger move, it's a risk adjusted move, and there's.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
More money coming in.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Now, why do these cycles work, Why do they seem
to be repeating over and over and over. Well, typically
it's because human nature. As much as things change, they
also stay the same because human nature always stays the same.
So we really have two types of investors. Investor one
which is you and I. We're called the dumb money,
small small checks.
Speaker 2 (06:12):
Right. Then we have the institutions, the sovereigns, things like that.
That's called the smart money.
Speaker 1 (06:17):
Now what happens is in the beginning, it's always the individuals,
the retail that comes in first, so we get it
up off of the ground where the speculators we bring
it forward. But then phase two, the second type of investor,
the big money comes in. It always works that way.
It's happened with automobiles, it happened with microprocessors, and it's
happening in the decentralized revolution as well. It also is
(06:40):
because of the technology adoption curve. We talk about this
the S curve that it follows, and we know that
it has accuracy consistency throughout history. Again, this is the
sixth time that it's happened and it's repeated the exact same.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Way over and over and over.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
The key, though, is understanding the timing of how it
goes from one phase to the next.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
That's what holds the key.
Speaker 1 (07:03):
Okay, So then if that's so important, then where are
we in this Well, what we can see is that
the current cycle started in twenty ten, and again this
is where one cycle is dying and a new one
sort of takes over. So what we saw, remember in
nineteen seventy one was the birth of the microprocessor, personal computers,
telecom internet. What happened with the Internet was started very decentralized.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
In the beginning. When I started my first Internet company,
I had to run my own server in my office.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
Maybe old enough to remember that, okay, But then we
got cloud computing. Then we got like SSOs. I log
into websites with my Google ID or my Facebook ID.
And then somewhere along the way, the Internet got super
super centralized and super controlled. And now we've seen the
downside of these centralized systems, and it's starting on a decline.
At the same time, we're seeing a rise of decentralized
(07:53):
systems going up. And so this is the old way
of ending, the one that started nineteen seventy one, and
this is the next fifty year cycle beginning here in
twenty ten with these centralized systems. So we can see
exactly how that works and why. And remember these four phases.
So the eruption phase got it to here, and we
(08:14):
are right here. We're about fourteen years into this process,
and you and I, if we want to make the
big money, we have about the next five years left
to really really press in hard. But again, here's what
everybody gets completely wrong. They think that they missed out.
How many times have you thought that you missed out
on bitcoin, or that somebody else tells you they missed
(08:37):
out on bitcoin, or you wish you could just go
back and you could.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Have bought more. But let's look through some historical parallels
to see.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Now we talked about Intel, right, So in its first
phase it went up by twenty three thousand percent, and
most people thought they had missed it.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
I wish I would have got in sooner.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
But they didn't realize that the first phase was barely
even noticeable when you looked at the second phase going
up by twenty six thousand percent.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
So they sat on the sideline. Oh woe is me?
I never I never get it.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
I always miss out, And they sit on the sidelines
and they miss the biggest part of the cycle. We
can see the same thing happen with Apple. In the
first phase of Apple, it went up by one point
four million percent. One point four million percent. It's too expensive,
I missed out? Why do I always miss it? They
sat on the sidelines, and then Apple went up another
(09:28):
one hundred and fifty one thousand percent. But the beauty
is as I said, the risk was pretty much gone
after it had gone up one point four million percent.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
It was an established company, It wasn't going to go
out of business.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
It wasn't like a pump and dumb company at that point,
and so you had the chance to come in at
a much lower risk level and ride this second wave.
We can say the same thing with Microsoft. As a
matter of fact, look at that chart just together. In
the first phase, Microsoft went up fifty seven thousand percent. Amazing,
Most people sat on the sideline and forgot that. The
se second phase went up by one point six million percent,
(10:04):
again after most of the risk was already gone. This
is the opportunity that we have right now today. So
while people think bitcoin is expensive compared to what well,
compared to where it was, but what about where it's going. Well,
this is a projection of basically what we call store
of value assets. The governments keeps printing money, the debt
system continues to expand, the wealth of the world continues
(10:26):
to expand.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
And where does it go.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
Well, we typically park it in holding in money, We
park it in bonds, real estate, equities, collectibles, gold, and bitcoin.
This basket in twenty twenty was worth about eight hundred
and fifty trillion dollars. By twenty thirty, it will be
worth about one point seven quadrillion dollars based off with
(10:49):
the government projects that'll continue to expand the monetary system
through debt and deficit spending. Now, when this goes up,
each one of these real estate goes up, stocks go up,
collectibles go up, and bitcoin goes up as well.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
What we're trying to predict is what.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Percentage of that basket could bitcoin get. Well, if bitcoin
could get only one percent of the basket, that would
put it on par with gold right here at about
twenty one trillion dollars or one million dollars per bitcoin.
Now I've broken this down into way more math if
you want to see it. We'll link to that video
down below if you want to go ahead and watch that.
(11:25):
But we believe that it can get to at least
one percent of that basket by twenty thirty, put it
on pace for one million dollars per bitcoin. So while
that sounds good, that's about a ten x from here,
we understand that's barely even scratching the surface.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
So what's bigger than that? What's bigger than bitcoin?
Speaker 1 (11:42):
Well, just like the microprocessor created Intel and then Intel
created computers like Apple, and then that created software like
Microsoft and created all the.
Speaker 2 (11:52):
Internet companies that we have today.
Speaker 1 (11:54):
We understand that bitcoin is creating an entire ecosystem. So
if you think about bitcoin as a commodity or like
an asset, sort of like oil.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Oil is a commodity or an asset.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
And while the price hovers around sixty bucks or eighty
bucks a barrel, there's an entire oil industry or ecosystem
built around it that just happens to be the eighth
largest industry in the world, valued at almost five trillion dollars.
So we have a commodity that's price ranges building an
(12:25):
entire industry, and that's what we're talking about.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
So we have Bitcoin going up, but.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
We have these new bitcoin treasury companies, and we have
the entire bitcoin ecosystem. Bitcoin treasury companies are companies like
MicroStrategy that are levering up their balance sheet to grow
their stock or their bitcoin per share. Companies like Metaplanet
that are doing the same thing. And these are moving
three times, five times, some of them even ten times.
Speaker 2 (12:52):
Faster than Bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
If you want to know more about how to find
these companies, specifically, I want to do a whole live
presentation next week.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
You can come hang out. I'll break down.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
All the new metrics bitcoin per share and torque and
bitcoin yield and all these things. Will go through exactly
how these companies work, how to find them, and we'll
open up for Q and A if you want to
come hang out us all for free. I'll put a
link down below if you want to come join me.
But what we really want.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
To do is this takes steps, all right.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
This information isn't any good unless you do something with it,
all right, So the first thing you have to understand
is we want to be thinking in cycles.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
Not daily moves.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Okay, we understand that daily things get choppy, but over
cycles they go up.
Speaker 2 (13:32):
Right now, in this.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
Current cycle that we're at, we have maybe about twelve
months left and then the next cycle will start. But
that means we need to be taking aggressive action now
and pressing it as.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Hard as we can right now.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
Now, I'm going to do more videos to continue to
educate you on this.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
So what's next.
Speaker 1 (13:48):
We'll do institutional money as a band in crypto and
what they're buying. Instead, we're gonna talk about the new
language of wealth that makes Wall Street analysts look fools, because,
like I said, there's a whole new set of metrics,
and I'm gonna talk about how AI and bitcoin are
current verging together. All right, So I'm gonna break all
this down because I do not want you to miss
this again. If you want to get to the front
of the line and skip the class, I'll put a
free link down below. If you want to come hang
(14:09):
out with me, we'll go super deep into this. Otherwise,
stay tuned as we drop these other videos, and if
you want to understand where bitcoin's going in twenty thirty,
forty and fifty, you should probably watch this video right
here and hope to see you over there.