Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Most portfolios will get wrecked by twenty twenty six, and
almost no one's warning you. And no, it's not because
of tariffs or inflation or interest rates, not even because
the FED. It started with a single announcement out of China,
and it quietly broke the stock market's valuation models, and
nearly everyone missed it now, not knowing this, we'll wreck
(00:21):
your portfolio by twenty twenty six, guaranteed. But if you
do get it right, you'll be positioned ahead of one
of the biggest wealth waves of our lifetime. While most
investors bleed out, clinging to outdated models and broken strategies.
I'm an investor and venture capitalist who's helped scale multiple
tech companies with big exits. I'm a partner leading Tech
Focus to VC Fund, and I advise some of the.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Top names in bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Now, I've seen these cycles before, and what's coming next
will blindside most people, but not you, not if you
pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
All right, let's start with the moment everything changed because
most people missed it. Now, it wasn't inflation, It wasn't
the tariff announcement, Like I said, it wasn't the FED.
It wasn't any of that. It wasn't the rate hikes.
It was a little known AI startup in China, and
it was a single announcement that sent US tech talks
into a massive noseedive. Now you're probably thinking, wait, like what, well,
(01:14):
let me show you. On January twentieth, a Chinese company
called deep Seek released their R one model. Now, it's
an AI reasoning model that basically outperformed open AI's latest
and a whole bunch of like third party tests. But
here's the kicker. They built it in two months, and
they built it for under six million dollars. And that's
what changed everything. Because all these US tech giants, the Googles,
(01:38):
the Microsoft's Meta, they've been throwing.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Billions into the AI arms race.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Nvidia has been the golden goose in that entire ecosystem,
making chips and infrastructure. But the whole AI bull market
was built around that narrative. But you see, when deep
Seek dropped their model, investors started asking a good question,
which is, wait, we over pain for the wrong things. Now,
the markets didn't really take that. Well, they don't like uncertainty,
(02:04):
and just a few days later, on January twenty seventh,
Nvidia dropped eighteen percent in a single day.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Now that's not normal, that's historic.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
It was one of the largest single day market.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Cap losses in US history.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
About five hundred and ninety three billion dollars wiped out
in a single day on one day. Then, of course,
the domino started to fall. The Nasdaq dropped three percent
on the back of it, the so called Magnificent seven,
the Mag seven, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
They started selling off hard.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
All the big names holding up the whole index. They
all started falling, cracking. But why all because Deep Seek
proved something that no one wanted to admit. The AI
game isn't just about who spends the most, It's about
who adapts fastest. Even scot percent. The US Treasury Secretary
came out and said it straight up on Tucker's show recently.
(03:00):
Let's play a clip of that.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
This market decline started with the Chinese AI announcement of
deep Seek. So the so called mag seven, the tech
stocks had been doing very well for about eighteen months,
led the market. And I think that there's kind of
a real dose of reality.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
All right now, I want to pause on that for
a second, because that line right there, that's your red flag.
He's saying, this isn't about politics, it's not about economic policy,
it's not about trade wars. He said, this is about structure,
how the market is built and what's underneath it and
starting to break.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Here's another piece of it.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Like if I were to analyze in my old hat,
my old hat, what's happening with the market, I'd say
it's more a mag seven problem and not a magnet problem.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Right, So it's a deeper So actually, markets are you're saying,
in this specific case with tech stocks are taking like
a real measure the value of companies relative to foreign companies.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Well, it's sad, but if we look with the equal
weighted SMP, even after today's moves down four percent in
the year or you know, in a long term chart,
you wouldn't even notice that.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So what he said, right, if you look at the
equal weighted SMP five hundred, it's not down that bad.
The regular SMP that may stayed up longer, but only
because those.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Big seven tech names were holding it up.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
But once they started slipping, the whole index started falling.
It's like the foundation cracked and no one had a
backup plan.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
So yeah, it.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Wasn't a speech, it wasn't a tweet, it wasn't tariffs,
it wasn't a FED meeting. It was one AI announcement
out of China, and up pulled the thread that's now
unraveling the entire passive investing strategy that everyone thought was safe.
And that's just the beginning. Let me show you why
this is way bigger than one drop, and why index
investing might be the most dangerous thing you can do
(04:55):
right now, especially considering that over a long period of
time it was considered.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
The safe way to grow wealth.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
They said, you know, just buy the S and P
five hundred, just hold it. That's what people were told, right,
set it, forget it, retire rich.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
One day hopefully.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Right.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Well, here's the truth.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
That's strategy. It worked in the past, but now it's
setting people up to get completely blindsided. Let me explain why.
Right now, over thirty percent of the S and P
five hundred is just seven companies. Again I named them, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
So if you think you're diversified because you just own
the whole index, you're not. You're just overweight in a
few tech companies. Now that's whether you know it or not.
And those companies, they're the same ones that started falling
after the deepsea announcement. So the whole index is tied
to a handful of names, and if those names drop,
everything goes down with them. And here's the stat that
(05:50):
most people haven't even thought of or seen. The equal
weighted s and P five hundred, where every company is
treated the same, is down about only eight percent this year.
But the regular s and P five hundred, the one
that looked fine on the surface because the seven mag
seven were holding it up, well again that thing has
completely cratered down. But here's why.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
You see.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
People were trusting the passive investments the index funds to
protect them. But those funds can't see what's coming, right,
They just keep buying whatever's already in the basket. There's
no thinking, there's no adapting. It's passive, so there's no
risk management. It's all just math. It's the momentum. And
the crazy part is that when those top stocks go up,
passive funds they buy even more of them, and when
(06:33):
they start to fall, the funds don't react, So you're
basically just riding a roller coaster with no brakes, no
hands on the wheel, And I guess that's fine on
the way up. But when the drop hits, when the
market pivots, you're locked in. And don't expect your financial
advisor to tell you this either, because most of them
are still pushing the same old sixty forty portfolio allocations.
(06:54):
You know, some stocks, some bonds, some index funds. But
why Well, because it's zzy, because it's what everyone else does,
and because they get paid whether you win or lose. Now, look,
I'm not saying that you should become a day trader. Actually,
actually I'm strongly against that. Investors make money by getting
into strong long term trends early, not by trading around it.
(07:15):
But if you're sitting in index funds right now thinking
that you're playing it safe, you're not. You're actually fully
exposed to the most fragile part of the entire market,
and the worst part you won't know until it's too late.
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that's Justworks dot com slash podcast. But then you might ask, so,
(08:21):
if passive investing is no longer safe and traditional diversification
is basically a myth, then what the heck am I
supposed to do?
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well?
Speaker 1 (08:31):
This is where we go next. Let me show you
how AI is breaking the system and why the old
models don't work anymore, and even more, why the old
model is even more dangerous than most people realize. And
the reason why is because it's not just the index
that's broken, it's the entire system. The entire system we
use to value companies is also broken. And the reason
(08:52):
why is technology. Technology is changing so fast. We have
AI moving so fast it's making traditional valuation models almost useless.
The tools that Wall Street uses to price companies like
PE ratios and dcfs and EBITA multiples, all that, it
all assumes some version of linear growth like steady revenues,
(09:13):
growing margins, predictable performance. But that's not what AI does.
AI isn't linear. It's exponential. It doesn't just make things better,
It makes them cheaper, faster, and more scalable, and it
makes them do that in ways that the old models
can't predict.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Like, think about it.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
You've got companies now with say twenty employees doing what
used to take two hundred, because all of a sudden,
AI automations do so much of that work.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
How do you price that?
Speaker 1 (09:42):
How do you model productivity when it's doubling.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Every six months? Well you can't.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Wall Street hasn't been able to figure it out yet,
and that's why markets feel so jittery.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
And then of course you get deep Seek.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
They spent again six million dollars to build a model
that beat or matched Open AI, and they did it
in just two months. Meanwhile, US companies have spent hundreds
of billions on AI infrastructure and compute. So when deep
Seat dropped there R one investors went, wait a minute,
is this spending worth it? That's why Nvidia lost almost
six hundred billion in a single day, the biggest single.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Day loss in US stock market history.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
And it wasn't just a bad day. It was the
moment that people realize that we don't know what happens
in that kind of environment, and we know for sure
money get scared. We know that narratives start to break,
the index breaks, and you're still relying on the old models,
and so basically you're flying blind. Now here's another stat
that tells the whole story. Even after all this, the
(10:37):
S and P five hundreds forward pe ratio is still
over twenty. Now historically, that's really high for a time
when earnings are dropping. JP Morgan had cut their S
and P five hundred earnings forecast seven point four percent
down to two point fifty per share this year. It's
a massive disconnect. Valuations are staying high while profits are
coming down, and that's just not sustainable. So let's map
(11:01):
all this out. We got a market that's being held
up by a few names. Those names are tied to
an AI boom that just got undercut by.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Cheaper, faster competitors.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
The tools we've used to value companies, they don't work
when growth is exponential and unpredictable, And most investors are
still in passive strategies that are built on those outdated assumptions.
So that's the setup. That's why portfolios are getting completely wrecked.
But here's the thing. While most people are panicking, while
most people are confused, this is actually the biggest opportunity
(11:31):
that we've seen in decades. If you know how to
position for it. Let me show you what I'm doing
and where I believe the next wave of wealth is
going to be built now. While most people are stuck
trying to make sense of this new world, there's a
much smaller group of investors who see it for what
it really is. That's a massive opportunity. But it's not
for the whole market. It's not for every stock. It's
(11:52):
in for companies that are in very specific areas, the
ones that actually benefit from the shift that's happening right now,
and it happens around a fifty year cycle that's repeated
six times over the last three hundred years, and this
explosion of technology that forms a cluster to build this
new world. I call it the quantum wave, and it's
(12:13):
made up of three core based technologies. The first one
is bitcoin. Bitcoin is the monetary layer, the asset that's
outside of the system that's accruing well storing value. Then
we have the AI and the deep tech layer. This
is what the exponential growth engine that's happening. Then we
have the commodities and energy layer, and this is the
(12:34):
stuff that we build the real world foundation with it.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
That's it. These are the assets.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
These are the assets I believe that we're going to
ride the next five to ten years and it's going
to completely transform the globe while the rest of the
market fights to survive, while the rest of the market
fights to try to figure out what the new valuation
models will be. Now, let me break down each one
of these for you real quick. So first of all,
of course, we talked about bitcoin, the sovereign basic layer.
I call it sovereign because it's outside the system and
(13:01):
it's not just some crypto asset anymore. We're very clear,
it's bitcoin, not crypto, not the eleven million cryptos, and
it's being adopted already on a global level. We've seen
it with obviously investors up to institutions and now of
course the United States government. And it's permissionless. Like I said,
it's outside the system. And in a world that's full
of debasement and censorship and capital controls, bitcoin's a lifeboat.
(13:23):
Governments they're holding it, institutions are buying it. Individuals they're
realizing they don't need to play by Wall Street's rules anymore.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I call it the cheat code.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
And if you're not holding bitcoin, you're already behind.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Now.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
The second layer, as I said, is AI and deep technology.
This is the exponential opportunity. Now we're not just talking
about AI stocks, right, this is about identifying specific companies
that are building out the infrastructure, the models and tools
that's actually going to capture the value of AI. Open
source players, high efficiency builders, not just the biggest brands,
(13:57):
but the ones that.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Adapt the fastest.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
This is where where asymmetric upside lives. Right, you don't
need fifty positions, you need five. You need five that
are right. This is more of a sniper approach than
a spray and prey. But it's not again by the sector,
it's find the signal. And third, we have the commodities
and the energy layer the physical layer. And finally we
have to ground all of this in the real world.
(14:20):
All these data centers that are running AI, well, they
need power.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
They need a lot of it.
Speaker 1 (14:25):
AI is massively energy intensive, So the more AI grows,
the more viable things like nuclear and oil and gas
and copper and lithium and urany become. While everyone's chasing
the shiny tech narrative, this is the part of the
portfolio that gives you stability, leverage, and resilience, especially if
inflation rears its head again, which it's most likely going to.
(14:46):
So that's the framework. The quantum wave cycle is what
I'm positioning in Now. This isn't everything, but it's the
right things. We're not just trying to beat the S
and P five hundred by a couple of points. We're
trying to front run a massive rotation of capital out
of legacy assets who have their evaluation models all wrong
and into what's next. And because this fifty year cycles
(15:08):
happened six times over the last three hundred years, there's
a very easy to follow, repeatable framework and blueprint that
we can follow. Now. Each stage has a different investing strategy,
and right now we're going into phase two, so we
have to shift again. Now, if you want to learn
more about this the blueprint to follow what I'm buying,
I'm gonna have a live workshop next week.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
It's free. Come hang out.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
We're going to run through a whole bunch of charts
so I can explain this whole thing too, and then
at then we get to hang out. I'm gonna answer
all your questions so you know how to apply this
to your own investments right away, so you don't lose
out big in twenty twenty six. If you want to
come again, it's live, it's free. There's a link to
join in the description down below.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Come join me.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
But for now, the key is this passive. It's not
going to save you. Our lives tun't meant to be passive, right.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
You need a strategy.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
You need a strategy. It's actually aligned with the world
that we're moving into, not the one that we're leaving behind.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
All right, So let's just zoom out a little bit.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
You now see how Deep Seat cracked the AI story
wide open. You've seen why passive investing it's not safe anymore.
You've seen how the old euation models are breaking down.
And I've shown you the exact framework. I'm using the
position for what's coming next. So the question now is simple,
what are you going to do with it? Because here's
the thing, this isn't going to be obvious until it's over.
(16:26):
The people were gonna come out of this next cycle
way ahead, well they'll look like they just got lucky.
But lucky's what it looks like when you prepare and
you have the right timing. And right now the timing's perfect.
We're not at the peak, we're not even at the
frenzy yet. We're at the early recognition stage where most
people are still a sleep. They're still trusting outdated advice,
(16:48):
they're still betting on things that don't work anymore. So
this is our window, this is our time. I like
to say that the future is not evenly distributed. You
don't need to time the top or the bottom. You
just need to recognize the direction things are moving.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
And get positioned early.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
That's how real wealth is built, not by watching CNBC
or chasing TikTok stocks, but by understanding what's changing under
the surface and then just getting out and ahead of it.
The old system it's not going to come back. No
one's coming to save your portfolio about you. But if
you get this right, you could turn this shift into
the most important financial decision you've ever made. And I
(17:23):
hope you do, because this is only just getting started now.
If you want help with that, and you want to
learn this exact blueprint to follow what I'm buying, come
join me live next week.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
It's free.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Come hang out. I got a whole bunch of charts
that I'm gonna run through so I can show you
this exact blueprint what we're doing. I'm gonna hang out,
answer all your questions live so you can figure out
exactly how to apply this to your own investments. Again,
like I said, it's all free, it's all live. There's
a link to join me in the description down below,
And if you want to know more specifics about this
cycle and how it's the investing black hole, you might
(17:54):
want to watch this video right here. Otherwise, let me
know what you think, drop me a comment down below
in me thumbs. Would you like it? Otherwise, that's what.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
I got to your success. I'm out
Most portfolios will get wrecked by twenty twenty six, and
almost no one's warning you. And no, it's not because
of tariffs or inflation or interest rates, not even because
the FED. It started with a single announcement out of China,
and it quietly broke the stock market's valuation models, and
nearly everyone missed it now, not knowing this, we'll wreck
(00:21):
your portfolio by twenty twenty six, guaranteed. But if you
do get it right, you'll be positioned ahead of one
of the biggest wealth waves of our lifetime. While most
investors bleed out, clinging to outdated models and broken strategies.
I'm an investor and venture capitalist who's helped scale multiple
tech companies with big exits. I'm a partner leading Tech
Focus to VC Fund, and I advise some of the.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Top names in bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Now, I've seen these cycles before, and what's coming next
will blindside most people, but not you, not if you
pay attention.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
All right, let's start with the moment everything changed because
most people missed it. Now, it wasn't inflation, It wasn't
the tariff announcement, Like I said, it wasn't the FED.
It wasn't any of that. It wasn't the rate hikes.
It was a little known AI startup in China, and
it was a single announcement that sent US tech talks
into a massive noseedive. Now you're probably thinking, wait, like what, well,
(01:14):
let me show you. On January twentieth, a Chinese company
called deep Seek released their R one model. Now, it's
an AI reasoning model that basically outperformed open AI's latest
and a whole bunch of like third party tests. But
here's the kicker. They built it in two months, and
they built it for under six million dollars. And that's
what changed everything. Because all these US tech giants, the Googles,
(01:38):
the Microsoft's Meta, they've been throwing.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
Billions into the AI arms race.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Nvidia has been the golden goose in that entire ecosystem,
making chips and infrastructure. But the whole AI bull market
was built around that narrative. But you see, when deep
Seek dropped their model, investors started asking a good question,
which is, wait, we over pain for the wrong things. Now,
the markets didn't really take that. Well, they don't like uncertainty,
(02:04):
and just a few days later, on January twenty seventh,
Nvidia dropped eighteen percent in a single day.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Now that's not normal, that's historic.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
It was one of the largest single day market.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Cap losses in US history.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
About five hundred and ninety three billion dollars wiped out
in a single day on one day. Then, of course,
the domino started to fall. The Nasdaq dropped three percent
on the back of it, the so called Magnificent seven,
the Mag seven, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
They started selling off hard.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
All the big names holding up the whole index. They
all started falling, cracking. But why all because Deep Seek
proved something that no one wanted to admit. The AI
game isn't just about who spends the most, It's about
who adapts fastest. Even scot percent. The US Treasury Secretary
came out and said it straight up on Tucker's show recently.
(03:00):
Let's play a clip of that.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
This market decline started with the Chinese AI announcement of
deep Seek. So the so called mag seven, the tech
stocks had been doing very well for about eighteen months,
led the market. And I think that there's kind of
a real dose of reality.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
All right now, I want to pause on that for
a second, because that line right there, that's your red flag.
He's saying, this isn't about politics, it's not about economic policy,
it's not about trade wars. He said, this is about structure,
how the market is built and what's underneath it and
starting to break.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Here's another piece of it.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
Like if I were to analyze in my old hat,
my old hat, what's happening with the market, I'd say
it's more a mag seven problem and not a magnet problem.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
Right, So it's a deeper So actually, markets are you're saying,
in this specific case with tech stocks are taking like
a real measure the value of companies relative to foreign companies.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Well, it's sad, but if we look with the equal
weighted SMP, even after today's moves down four percent in
the year or you know, in a long term chart,
you wouldn't even notice that.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So what he said, right, if you look at the
equal weighted SMP five hundred, it's not down that bad.
The regular SMP that may stayed up longer, but only
because those.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Big seven tech names were holding it up.
Speaker 1 (04:26):
But once they started slipping, the whole index started falling.
It's like the foundation cracked and no one had a
backup plan.
Speaker 2 (04:33):
So yeah, it.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
Wasn't a speech, it wasn't a tweet, it wasn't tariffs,
it wasn't a FED meeting. It was one AI announcement
out of China, and up pulled the thread that's now
unraveling the entire passive investing strategy that everyone thought was safe.
And that's just the beginning. Let me show you why
this is way bigger than one drop, and why index
investing might be the most dangerous thing you can do
(04:55):
right now, especially considering that over a long period of
time it was considered.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
The safe way to grow wealth.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
They said, you know, just buy the S and P
five hundred, just hold it. That's what people were told, right,
set it, forget it, retire rich.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
One day hopefully.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Right.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Well, here's the truth.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
That's strategy. It worked in the past, but now it's
setting people up to get completely blindsided. Let me explain why.
Right now, over thirty percent of the S and P
five hundred is just seven companies. Again I named them, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Nvidia.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
That's it.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
So if you think you're diversified because you just own
the whole index, you're not. You're just overweight in a
few tech companies. Now that's whether you know it or not.
And those companies, they're the same ones that started falling
after the deepsea announcement. So the whole index is tied
to a handful of names, and if those names drop,
everything goes down with them. And here's the stat that
(05:50):
most people haven't even thought of or seen. The equal
weighted s and P five hundred, where every company is
treated the same, is down about only eight percent this year.
But the regular s and P five hundred, the one
that looked fine on the surface because the seven mag
seven were holding it up, well again that thing has
completely cratered down. But here's why.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
You see.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
People were trusting the passive investments the index funds to
protect them. But those funds can't see what's coming, right,
They just keep buying whatever's already in the basket. There's
no thinking, there's no adapting. It's passive, so there's no
risk management. It's all just math. It's the momentum. And
the crazy part is that when those top stocks go up,
passive funds they buy even more of them, and when
(06:33):
they start to fall, the funds don't react, So you're
basically just riding a roller coaster with no brakes, no
hands on the wheel, And I guess that's fine on
the way up. But when the drop hits, when the
market pivots, you're locked in. And don't expect your financial
advisor to tell you this either, because most of them
are still pushing the same old sixty forty portfolio allocations.
(06:54):
You know, some stocks, some bonds, some index funds. But
why Well, because it's zzy, because it's what everyone else does,
and because they get paid whether you win or lose. Now, look,
I'm not saying that you should become a day trader. Actually,
actually I'm strongly against that. Investors make money by getting
into strong long term trends early, not by trading around it.
(07:15):
But if you're sitting in index funds right now thinking
that you're playing it safe, you're not. You're actually fully
exposed to the most fragile part of the entire market,
and the worst part you won't know until it's too late.
A small business owner, are you buried in all types
of work keeping you from the real thing that makes
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(07:37):
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(07:57):
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Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real
human support. So visit Justworks dot com slash podcast to
join the thousands of small businesses that trust Just Works
to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again,
that's Justworks dot com slash podcast. But then you might ask, so,
(08:21):
if passive investing is no longer safe and traditional diversification
is basically a myth, then what the heck am I
supposed to do?
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Well?
Speaker 1 (08:31):
This is where we go next. Let me show you
how AI is breaking the system and why the old
models don't work anymore, and even more, why the old
model is even more dangerous than most people realize. And
the reason why is because it's not just the index
that's broken, it's the entire system. The entire system we
use to value companies is also broken. And the reason
(08:52):
why is technology. Technology is changing so fast. We have
AI moving so fast it's making traditional valuation models almost useless.
The tools that Wall Street uses to price companies like
PE ratios and dcfs and EBITA multiples, all that, it
all assumes some version of linear growth like steady revenues,
(09:13):
growing margins, predictable performance. But that's not what AI does.
AI isn't linear. It's exponential. It doesn't just make things better,
It makes them cheaper, faster, and more scalable, and it
makes them do that in ways that the old models
can't predict.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Like, think about it.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
You've got companies now with say twenty employees doing what
used to take two hundred, because all of a sudden,
AI automations do so much of that work.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
How do you price that?
Speaker 1 (09:42):
How do you model productivity when it's doubling.
Speaker 2 (09:44):
Every six months? Well you can't.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Wall Street hasn't been able to figure it out yet,
and that's why markets feel so jittery.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
And then of course you get deep Seek.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
They spent again six million dollars to build a model
that beat or matched Open AI, and they did it
in just two months. Meanwhile, US companies have spent hundreds
of billions on AI infrastructure and compute. So when deep
Seat dropped there R one investors went, wait a minute,
is this spending worth it? That's why Nvidia lost almost
six hundred billion in a single day, the biggest single.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Day loss in US stock market history.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
And it wasn't just a bad day. It was the
moment that people realize that we don't know what happens
in that kind of environment, and we know for sure
money get scared. We know that narratives start to break,
the index breaks, and you're still relying on the old models,
and so basically you're flying blind. Now here's another stat
that tells the whole story. Even after all this, the
(10:37):
S and P five hundreds forward pe ratio is still
over twenty. Now historically, that's really high for a time
when earnings are dropping. JP Morgan had cut their S
and P five hundred earnings forecast seven point four percent
down to two point fifty per share this year. It's
a massive disconnect. Valuations are staying high while profits are
coming down, and that's just not sustainable. So let's map
(11:01):
all this out. We got a market that's being held
up by a few names. Those names are tied to
an AI boom that just got undercut by.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Cheaper, faster competitors.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
The tools we've used to value companies, they don't work
when growth is exponential and unpredictable, And most investors are
still in passive strategies that are built on those outdated assumptions.
So that's the setup. That's why portfolios are getting completely wrecked.
But here's the thing. While most people are panicking, while
most people are confused, this is actually the biggest opportunity
(11:31):
that we've seen in decades. If you know how to
position for it. Let me show you what I'm doing
and where I believe the next wave of wealth is
going to be built now. While most people are stuck
trying to make sense of this new world, there's a
much smaller group of investors who see it for what
it really is. That's a massive opportunity. But it's not
for the whole market. It's not for every stock. It's
(11:52):
in for companies that are in very specific areas, the
ones that actually benefit from the shift that's happening right now,
and it happens around a fifty year cycle that's repeated
six times over the last three hundred years, and this
explosion of technology that forms a cluster to build this
new world. I call it the quantum wave, and it's
(12:13):
made up of three core based technologies. The first one
is bitcoin. Bitcoin is the monetary layer, the asset that's
outside of the system that's accruing well storing value. Then
we have the AI and the deep tech layer. This
is what the exponential growth engine that's happening. Then we
have the commodities and energy layer, and this is the
(12:34):
stuff that we build the real world foundation with it.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
That's it. These are the assets.
Speaker 1 (12:39):
These are the assets I believe that we're going to
ride the next five to ten years and it's going
to completely transform the globe while the rest of the
market fights to survive, while the rest of the market
fights to try to figure out what the new valuation
models will be. Now, let me break down each one
of these for you real quick. So first of all,
of course, we talked about bitcoin, the sovereign basic layer.
I call it sovereign because it's outside the system and
(13:01):
it's not just some crypto asset anymore. We're very clear,
it's bitcoin, not crypto, not the eleven million cryptos, and
it's being adopted already on a global level. We've seen
it with obviously investors up to institutions and now of
course the United States government. And it's permissionless. Like I said,
it's outside the system. And in a world that's full
of debasement and censorship and capital controls, bitcoin's a lifeboat.
(13:23):
Governments they're holding it, institutions are buying it. Individuals they're
realizing they don't need to play by Wall Street's rules anymore.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
I call it the cheat code.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
And if you're not holding bitcoin, you're already behind.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Now.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
The second layer, as I said, is AI and deep technology.
This is the exponential opportunity. Now we're not just talking
about AI stocks, right, this is about identifying specific companies
that are building out the infrastructure, the models and tools
that's actually going to capture the value of AI. Open
source players, high efficiency builders, not just the biggest brands,
(13:57):
but the ones that.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Adapt the fastest.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
This is where where asymmetric upside lives. Right, you don't
need fifty positions, you need five. You need five that
are right. This is more of a sniper approach than
a spray and prey. But it's not again by the sector,
it's find the signal. And third, we have the commodities
and the energy layer the physical layer. And finally we
have to ground all of this in the real world.
(14:20):
All these data centers that are running AI, well, they
need power.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
They need a lot of it.
Speaker 1 (14:25):
AI is massively energy intensive, So the more AI grows,
the more viable things like nuclear and oil and gas
and copper and lithium and urany become. While everyone's chasing
the shiny tech narrative, this is the part of the
portfolio that gives you stability, leverage, and resilience, especially if
inflation rears its head again, which it's most likely going to.
(14:46):
So that's the framework. The quantum wave cycle is what
I'm positioning in Now. This isn't everything, but it's the
right things. We're not just trying to beat the S
and P five hundred by a couple of points. We're
trying to front run a massive rotation of capital out
of legacy assets who have their evaluation models all wrong
and into what's next. And because this fifty year cycles
(15:08):
happened six times over the last three hundred years, there's
a very easy to follow, repeatable framework and blueprint that
we can follow. Now. Each stage has a different investing strategy,
and right now we're going into phase two, so we
have to shift again. Now, if you want to learn
more about this the blueprint to follow what I'm buying,
I'm gonna have a live workshop next week.
Speaker 2 (15:29):
It's free. Come hang out.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
We're going to run through a whole bunch of charts
so I can explain this whole thing too, and then
at then we get to hang out. I'm gonna answer
all your questions so you know how to apply this
to your own investments right away, so you don't lose
out big in twenty twenty six. If you want to
come again, it's live, it's free. There's a link to
join in the description down below.
Speaker 2 (15:48):
Come join me.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
But for now, the key is this passive. It's not
going to save you. Our lives tun't meant to be passive, right.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
You need a strategy.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
You need a strategy. It's actually aligned with the world
that we're moving into, not the one that we're leaving behind.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
All right, So let's just zoom out a little bit.
Speaker 1 (16:04):
You now see how Deep Seat cracked the AI story
wide open. You've seen why passive investing it's not safe anymore.
You've seen how the old euation models are breaking down.
And I've shown you the exact framework. I'm using the
position for what's coming next. So the question now is simple,
what are you going to do with it? Because here's
the thing, this isn't going to be obvious until it's over.
(16:26):
The people were gonna come out of this next cycle
way ahead, well they'll look like they just got lucky.
But lucky's what it looks like when you prepare and
you have the right timing. And right now the timing's perfect.
We're not at the peak, we're not even at the
frenzy yet. We're at the early recognition stage where most
people are still a sleep. They're still trusting outdated advice,
(16:48):
they're still betting on things that don't work anymore. So
this is our window, this is our time. I like
to say that the future is not evenly distributed. You
don't need to time the top or the bottom. You
just need to recognize the direction things are moving.
Speaker 2 (17:00):
And get positioned early.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
That's how real wealth is built, not by watching CNBC
or chasing TikTok stocks, but by understanding what's changing under
the surface and then just getting out and ahead of it.
The old system it's not going to come back. No
one's coming to save your portfolio about you. But if
you get this right, you could turn this shift into
the most important financial decision you've ever made. And I
(17:23):
hope you do, because this is only just getting started now.
If you want help with that, and you want to
learn this exact blueprint to follow what I'm buying, come
join me live next week.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
It's free.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
Come hang out. I got a whole bunch of charts
that I'm gonna run through so I can show you
this exact blueprint what we're doing. I'm gonna hang out,
answer all your questions live so you can figure out
exactly how to apply this to your own investments. Again,
like I said, it's all free, it's all live. There's
a link to join me in the description down below,
And if you want to know more specifics about this
cycle and how it's the investing black hole, you might
(17:54):
want to watch this video right here. Otherwise, let me
know what you think, drop me a comment down below
in me thumbs. Would you like it? Otherwise, that's what.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
I got to your success. I'm out
Host
Mark Moss
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