May 24, 2025 • 15 mins
A liquidity tsunami is coming—$5 trillion wave about to hit Bitcoin and stocks. Right now, everyone’s staring at Trump and his tariff headlines—but they’re missing the real driver behind markets. It's quiet, hidden, and moves prices with a three-month lag. Miss it, and you’re replaying Q1’s crash. Catch it, and you're perfectly positioned for what's about to unfold. I'm Mark Moss—I've spent years breaking down macro trends and Bitcoin cycles—and in the next 8 minutes, I'll show you exactly how this liquidity wave works, the key signals to watch, and the crucial piece everyone else is overlooking.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
A liquidity tsunami is coming, a five trillion dollar wave
about to hit bitcoin and stocks. But right now everyone's
they're staring at Trump, they're staring at the tariffs, they're
staring at the headlines, but they're missing the real driver
behind markets. It's quiet, it's hidden, and it moves prices
with a three month lag, and if you miss it,
then you're just replaying the quarter one crash. But if
(00:22):
you catch it, you're perfectly positioned for what's about to unfold.
I'm Mark Moss. I've spent years breaking down macro trends,
bitcoin cycles, and in the next eight minutes, I'm gonna
show you exactly how this liquidya wave works, the key
signals to be watching, and the crucial piece that everyone
else is overlooking.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
All right, So we're gonna jump right into show you
what the undercurrent is that's driving markets. Because of course
we're all worried about Trump and tariffs, and of course
I've been doing lots of videos on that because it's
very important. But as if you watch those other videos
on tariffs, and what I've been saying is that tariffs
isn't really the dejective. It's a lever to get other
things done, some really really big things done. If you
(01:04):
miss those videos, we'll link to them in the description
down below, just go watch them all right now, they
are a lever to make something else happen. But really
there's something underneath the undercurrent that's really driving everything. But
let's just start here the first hundred days of Trump's term.
Here we are in the first one hundred days, and
it has been turbulent, to say the least, right, lots
of noise. Maybe he's an idiot, maybe it doesn't know
(01:26):
what he's doing. Maybe we don't know. But what we
do know is that we've seen ten days and ten
trillion dollar market swings. So we've been seeing massive volatility
as things go up and down as Trump is basically
trying to reorganize the entire global monetary system, not a
small feat. Now we can see that in that time.
(01:48):
I've put this green mark here. We can see the
markets came all the way down, came back up, went down,
went back up, and currently right now they're down about
ten percent. This is the S and P five hundred
down about ten percent. Now, with all of this is happening,
and he's an idiot. He's wrecking the economy and all
these things.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
We're down ten percent.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Now, just for a little bit of historical perspective, here
we were down ten percent. Here, Here we were down
six percent. Here, Here, we were down ten percent. Here, here,
we were down ten percent.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Here. You see ten percent isn't all that uncommon.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
So we're seeing that. But yes, it has been volatile,
it's been back and forth. But here's the thing. While
that has been wiped out, there's an undercurrent that really
shows us what's.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Really going on.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
And this is what you need to know if you
want to navigate these markets. Okay, so if you really
want to navigate these markets like a true bro, then
you need to know what you're looking at. Now. If
you've been watching my videos for any amount of time,
then you know I always talk about liquidity. Liquidity. Liquidity
is what drives asset prices. So we want to keep
our eyes on liquidity. So let me show you what
I'm talking about. In twenty twenty four, last year before
(02:53):
Trump took office, in the last quarter quarter four twenty
twenty four, we saw declining liquidity. Liquidity was raining out
of the system, and that pushed asset price is down
now for the first quarter of twenty twenty five, quarter one,
we've seen rising liquidity. All right, Now, I'm gonna use
a bunch of charts from Michael how I want to
(03:13):
link to his newsletter down below I subscribed to. It's
a paid newsletter. I'll link to Doumblo if you want
to subscribe to it. I've had him on my show. Actually,
we'll link to the interview of me and Michael down
there as well.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Great work.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
But what we can see here is here's twenty twenty
four and what we can see here in September of
twenty twenty four, we had a high of global equidity,
had one hundred and seventy five trillion dollars one hundred
and seventy five trillion. And what we can see is
through the end of twenty twenty four we went from
one seventy five, one seventy three, one seventy two, one
seventy one. But quidy was draining out of the system.
(03:43):
And you're like, but Mark, that is last year. We're
talking about the last you know, six.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Weeks, eight weeks, Okay, we'll come back to that. So
the quid is draining down.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Then here we have twenty twenty five, and we started
January with one seventy one, obviously carrying over one's seventy
one one, two seventy two, two, two seventy three to
seventy four, what sever one seventy six.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
The quity's been going up.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Now you're saying, but Mark, I don't understand this because
you're saying liquitia went down last year, but the price
have been going down this year. But you're saying price
going down when liquids going up. I don't understand what's
going on. Well, let me break it down for you.
So we have a one hundred and seventy six trillion
dollars of global equity as of last week. For Michael
holl that is a positive gain of five trillion dollars.
(04:31):
Hence the title of the video five trillion dollars tsunami.
Five trillion dollars year to date has been added. That's
how much it's gone up. The reason why you're not
understanding the linkage is because there's about a.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Ten to twelve week lag in between that.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
So liquid draining out in quarter four of last year,
we saw the impacts of it in quarter one.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Of twenty twenty five, mostly towards the end because of
the lag. All the quity we've seen.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Russian this year, this first quarter will be seen next quarter,
and we're already starting to see that. Let me show
you a couple of charts here. So here's a couple
more charts from Michael how and here we have global
equity mapped out from June of twenty twenty one, which
put twenty one right here.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Now.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
I started using this chart right around here. If you've
been watching my channel for an amount of time, you
know that when the whole world was going to end
and everyone needs to get out of the markets.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Back in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Two, because it was the low right here, I started
making videos. Go check out my channel. I said, there
is no market crash coming. Here's why it's time to
start buying. Here's why I'm buying new assets. And it's
because I understood this. And since then, the markets have
been on an absolute tear because that was the bottom
of liquidity, and the thing is typically moving a four
year cycle. We've had about four good years of runs,
(05:45):
and I thing goes up and down in a straight line.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Obviously, we've had four gusts straight years of runs.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
A small business owner, are you buried in all types
of work keeping you from the real thing that makes
you money? Well, that's where just Works comes in. They're
the all in one that supports small business growth.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
You can get all.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
Their tools that help with benefits like payroll and HR
and compliance with transparent pricing. Now they help you hire
top talent internationally, internew markets, quickly scale international operations without
the workload, and for every how do I do it? Question?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
You can reach out to.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Their expert staff from sole proprietor or a team of twenty.
Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real
human support. So visit justworks dot com slash podcast to
join the thousands of small businesses that trust just Works
to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again
that's Justworks dot com slash podcasts.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Let me just zoom in a little bit and look
a little bit closer. I want you to see this.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
So here's what we have now over the last year.
So what we had is last year twenty twenty four,
the last quarter, liquidy was draining down. In the first
quarter of this year, it's going up. When we zooming
a little bit, we can see this. This is what
we're talking about. Happened the five trillion dollars that.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
We'll see next quarter.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
But let's just take a look at this and see
how else we can see this data.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So here is the DIXIE, the.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Dollar index, and it measures the dollar against other currencies. Now,
this goes back until twenty nineteen, and what we can
see is that the dollar got stronger into twenty twenty,
then it got weaker, then it got really strong into
twenty twenty two, which is when liquidy drained out and
asset prices crashed. And then as the dollar got weaker,
(07:32):
liquidy went up, asset prices went up. We chopped back
and forth, and you can see as of right now
Q one. Well, let's look here Q four of last year.
I'll write that here Q four of last year draining
Q one of this year, it's been going down, which
means liquidy has been rushing back in. Now we can
(07:53):
see this in asset prices. If we look at bitcoin
for example, right here, same time period, so we can
see when the dollar index went down, liquidy went up.
Bitcoin went down, it dropped down. We can see here
that last quarter, as the dollar index got stronger, liquidy
went down, Bitcoin dropped with it, and now we can't
(08:13):
really see it here.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
But now bitcoin has made a big turnaround.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I think it's up ten to twelve percent in just
like the last two days at the time of its recording,
And you can see the same thing in Nasdak over
the same time period. You see the same movement as
the dollar and the global liquidity moves up and down.
The price has come up, it drops down, and now
we're starting to revert because that first core of liquidity
is just starting to.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Come into the system.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
All right, Now we have to understand these metrics and
how this works on a lag so we can really
start to position ourselves, because what we're seeing right now
is a lot of people are fearful, a lot of
people are exit out of the system, A lot of
people are waiting for the next leg to drop. They
think the world is coming to an end, like as
if the world is more uncertain than it was in
the pandemic of twenty twenty when the whole world was
(08:58):
gonna die and shipping lanes and businesses were shut down,
or it's more uncertain than it was in two thousand
and eight when the Great financial crush, the global financial
system melted down.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Certainly not. We can look at it here gold. So
we have assets.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
If you want to know why gold is taken off
so rapidly right now, it's because gold and bitcoin hard
assets with limited supplies, scarce supplies, are more sensitive to liquidity.
So we can see is that gold on again a
ten to twelve week lag moves about the same because
it's more sensitive, and it also rises and falls with equity.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
So here we have a chart again from Michael.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
Howe, global equity in orange right here, and the gold
price in black, and so we can see these moves
and the lag that we have in them. And so
we're seeing right now with the global equity ticking up
and the price of gold is going up, and eventually
these lines will catch up. We can see the same
thing if we look at it in bitcoin terms as well.
So for example, bitcoin is similar except for it's a
(09:56):
fixed supply, not a scarce supply. Right there will never
be more than twenty one million, which makes it much
more sensitive. Not to mention, not just because the scarcely,
but also because of the size of the market cap.
It's much harder to move a fourteen trillion dollar market
caap than it is a two trillion dollar market cap,
So we can see that bitcoin is very similar, except
for in this case it's also much more sensitive because
of the liquidity and the overall size. And again we
(10:18):
have the global equity in the orange line right here,
and we can see how we're ticking up right here,
but the bitcoin price hasn't responded yet. Why oh yeah,
because it's a three month lag. So this right here
in January, we'll start to see right here in April,
and we already have before. He gone from about eighty
(10:39):
to over ninety thousand in just two days, so we're
starting to see this.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Moving in really really rapidly.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Now we can see this. Here's another chart from Raw Paul.
I've also had Raw Paul on my show. We've talked
about this extensively. We'll link to that down below in
the description as well, and he shows this in a
similar way, but he adjusts it for the lag.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
So, for example, what we.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Have right here in the white line is we have
the global liquidity adjusted for a twelve week lag, and
then in the green line we have bitcoin. And what
we can see is that they overlay almost exactly when
you adjust it for the three month lag, and what
we can see is that we've been in this bottoming
zone right here, both in the bitcoin price and the
(11:21):
global liquidity, because as I said, it was drained now
last year I'm sorry last year last quarter, and now
that global liquidity is taking off, we expect or we're
seeing already the bitcoin price is following it. So you
can see this over and over and over through all
of these charts. Now, I want to just draw your
attention back to the main topic that's dominated news headlines.
(11:43):
It's been dominating my YouTube feed, so if you watch
my videos regularly, it's been dominating what you see as well.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
But the reason why we talk about.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
What Scott Ascent is doing and Howard Lutnick is doing
and Trump is doing is because they're trying to do
something monumental. They're trying to change is the entire global
monetary system, and they're using tariffs to do this and
using trade negotiations to do this. But there's a couple
of things that I want to draw your attention to,
mainly read and listen why because typically we've had you know,
(12:15):
politicians and fed board governors, they try to sort of
hide what they're doing they try to mislead us, so we.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Don't front run the markets. We don't front run them.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
But the Trump administration has done something much differently. They're
laying it all out there for you, and if you
read and listen to it, you'll hear exactly what they're
having to say.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
On Trump's head of his Economic.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Advisory Board, Hudson Bay Capital wrote this executive summary in
November of twenty twenty four, when Trump was running for president,
when he was winning presidents I go before he was there,
and this.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Report you can find it online.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
It lays out exactly what Trump is doing to a tee.
Butscent is talking about it now. What we can hear
now is that, well, if you read the report, the
goal was to push the terraffs and then bring them back,
use the terrats for negotiations and bring them back. And
already this is exactly what we're seeing all over the news.
Headlines are Trump's caving. He's always gonna cave. Yeah, that
(13:11):
was always the plan. If you read the art of
the deal, you anchor high, you negotiate off with us.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
It was in the report right here.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
In this video last night, Scott Passent was saying Hey,
we have these deals.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
They're coming together. We've got the negotiations here.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
We have a tweet that I put up the other
day and I said, India, tell me there's a trade
deal coming, without telling me there's a trade deal coming,
because we have the President of India over here in
the United States, we got Jdvans over there visiting him,
all this favorable talk.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Like the deals are coming.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And while everybody's focused on that on two DS, the
undercurrent is the global equitty that's really driving things. And
regardless of what happens here, we know more the quidy
is rushing in the system. That's why I've been talking
about it over and over and over for the last
two years now or so. If we keep our eyes
focused on that and sportives start to ignore the noise,
we can.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
See the quid is doing.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
And we have time. We have a three month lag
to get in position or out of position. Now you're
out of time because now the tide is already rushing
back in. Bitcoin's already up over ten thousand dollars. If
you miss those ten thousand dollars days, you miss most
of your games.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
So we want to get in.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
A position before the Tide runs not after This is
how I'm watching it.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Just for your reference.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
He makes Michael Howell makes his own proprietary charts.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
I think they're the best in the business. My friend
Nick Bodia, he makes one.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
At the Bitcoin Layer they make one that's really really
good as well.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
It tracks almost perfectly.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Ral Paul at Real Vision makes one as well, tracks
it perfectly.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Not perfectly, but very closely.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
If you want a very rough way to do it,
you can just look at Global IMP two. Not us
HIM two, but Global IM two. It's not as good,
not as high deaf, but still pretty good. Those are
ways that you can trackt this on your own. Of course,
just watch my channel because I'm going to report it
to you all the time. Let me know what you
thinking about this in the comments down below. Of course,
that's always gonna be thumbs up if you like, get
thumbs down if you don't.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
That's okay either way. Let me know. And that's what
I got. All right, to your success. I'm out
A liquidity tsunami is coming, a five trillion dollar wave
about to hit bitcoin and stocks. But right now everyone's
they're staring at Trump, they're staring at the tariffs, they're
staring at the headlines, but they're missing the real driver
behind markets. It's quiet, it's hidden, and it moves prices
with a three month lag, and if you miss it,
then you're just replaying the quarter one crash. But if
(00:22):
you catch it, you're perfectly positioned for what's about to unfold.
I'm Mark Moss. I've spent years breaking down macro trends,
bitcoin cycles, and in the next eight minutes, I'm gonna
show you exactly how this liquidya wave works, the key
signals to be watching, and the crucial piece that everyone
else is overlooking.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
So let's go.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
All right, So we're gonna jump right into show you
what the undercurrent is that's driving markets. Because of course
we're all worried about Trump and tariffs, and of course
I've been doing lots of videos on that because it's
very important. But as if you watch those other videos
on tariffs, and what I've been saying is that tariffs
isn't really the dejective. It's a lever to get other
things done, some really really big things done. If you
(01:04):
miss those videos, we'll link to them in the description
down below, just go watch them all right now, they
are a lever to make something else happen. But really
there's something underneath the undercurrent that's really driving everything. But
let's just start here the first hundred days of Trump's term.
Here we are in the first one hundred days, and
it has been turbulent, to say the least, right, lots
of noise. Maybe he's an idiot, maybe it doesn't know
(01:26):
what he's doing. Maybe we don't know. But what we
do know is that we've seen ten days and ten
trillion dollar market swings. So we've been seeing massive volatility
as things go up and down as Trump is basically
trying to reorganize the entire global monetary system, not a
small feat. Now we can see that in that time.
(01:48):
I've put this green mark here. We can see the
markets came all the way down, came back up, went down,
went back up, and currently right now they're down about
ten percent. This is the S and P five hundred
down about ten percent. Now, with all of this is happening,
and he's an idiot. He's wrecking the economy and all
these things.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
We're down ten percent.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
Now, just for a little bit of historical perspective, here
we were down ten percent. Here, Here we were down
six percent. Here, Here, we were down ten percent. Here, here,
we were down ten percent.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
Here. You see ten percent isn't all that uncommon.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
So we're seeing that. But yes, it has been volatile,
it's been back and forth. But here's the thing. While
that has been wiped out, there's an undercurrent that really
shows us what's.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Really going on.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
And this is what you need to know if you
want to navigate these markets. Okay, so if you really
want to navigate these markets like a true bro, then
you need to know what you're looking at. Now. If
you've been watching my videos for any amount of time,
then you know I always talk about liquidity. Liquidity. Liquidity
is what drives asset prices. So we want to keep
our eyes on liquidity. So let me show you what
I'm talking about. In twenty twenty four, last year before
(02:53):
Trump took office, in the last quarter quarter four twenty
twenty four, we saw declining liquidity. Liquidity was raining out
of the system, and that pushed asset price is down
now for the first quarter of twenty twenty five, quarter one,
we've seen rising liquidity. All right, Now, I'm gonna use
a bunch of charts from Michael how I want to
(03:13):
link to his newsletter down below I subscribed to. It's
a paid newsletter. I'll link to Doumblo if you want
to subscribe to it. I've had him on my show. Actually,
we'll link to the interview of me and Michael down
there as well.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Great work.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
But what we can see here is here's twenty twenty
four and what we can see here in September of
twenty twenty four, we had a high of global equidity,
had one hundred and seventy five trillion dollars one hundred
and seventy five trillion. And what we can see is
through the end of twenty twenty four we went from
one seventy five, one seventy three, one seventy two, one
seventy one. But quidy was draining out of the system.
(03:43):
And you're like, but Mark, that is last year. We're
talking about the last you know, six.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Weeks, eight weeks, Okay, we'll come back to that. So
the quid is draining down.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Then here we have twenty twenty five, and we started
January with one seventy one, obviously carrying over one's seventy
one one, two seventy two, two, two seventy three to
seventy four, what sever one seventy six.
Speaker 2 (04:08):
The quity's been going up.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
Now you're saying, but Mark, I don't understand this because
you're saying liquitia went down last year, but the price
have been going down this year. But you're saying price
going down when liquids going up. I don't understand what's
going on. Well, let me break it down for you.
So we have a one hundred and seventy six trillion
dollars of global equity as of last week. For Michael
holl that is a positive gain of five trillion dollars.
(04:31):
Hence the title of the video five trillion dollars tsunami.
Five trillion dollars year to date has been added. That's
how much it's gone up. The reason why you're not
understanding the linkage is because there's about a.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
Ten to twelve week lag in between that.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
So liquid draining out in quarter four of last year,
we saw the impacts of it in quarter one.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Of twenty twenty five, mostly towards the end because of
the lag. All the quity we've seen.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Russian this year, this first quarter will be seen next quarter,
and we're already starting to see that. Let me show
you a couple of charts here. So here's a couple
more charts from Michael how and here we have global
equity mapped out from June of twenty twenty one, which
put twenty one right here.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Now.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
I started using this chart right around here. If you've
been watching my channel for an amount of time, you
know that when the whole world was going to end
and everyone needs to get out of the markets.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Back in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Two, because it was the low right here, I started
making videos. Go check out my channel. I said, there
is no market crash coming. Here's why it's time to
start buying. Here's why I'm buying new assets. And it's
because I understood this. And since then, the markets have
been on an absolute tear because that was the bottom
of liquidity, and the thing is typically moving a four
year cycle. We've had about four good years of runs,
(05:45):
and I thing goes up and down in a straight line.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Obviously, we've had four gusts straight years of runs.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
A small business owner, are you buried in all types
of work keeping you from the real thing that makes
you money? Well, that's where just Works comes in. They're
the all in one that supports small business growth.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
You can get all.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
Their tools that help with benefits like payroll and HR
and compliance with transparent pricing. Now they help you hire
top talent internationally, internew markets, quickly scale international operations without
the workload, and for every how do I do it? Question?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
You can reach out to.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Their expert staff from sole proprietor or a team of twenty.
Just Works empowers all kinds of small businesses with real
human support. So visit justworks dot com slash podcast to
join the thousands of small businesses that trust just Works
to take care of payroll, benefits, compliance and more. Again
that's Justworks dot com slash podcasts.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Let me just zoom in a little bit and look
a little bit closer. I want you to see this.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
So here's what we have now over the last year.
So what we had is last year twenty twenty four,
the last quarter, liquidy was draining down. In the first
quarter of this year, it's going up. When we zooming
a little bit, we can see this. This is what
we're talking about. Happened the five trillion dollars that.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
We'll see next quarter.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
But let's just take a look at this and see
how else we can see this data.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
So here is the DIXIE, the.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
Dollar index, and it measures the dollar against other currencies. Now,
this goes back until twenty nineteen, and what we can
see is that the dollar got stronger into twenty twenty,
then it got weaker, then it got really strong into
twenty twenty two, which is when liquidy drained out and
asset prices crashed. And then as the dollar got weaker,
(07:32):
liquidy went up, asset prices went up. We chopped back
and forth, and you can see as of right now
Q one. Well, let's look here Q four of last year.
I'll write that here Q four of last year draining
Q one of this year, it's been going down, which
means liquidy has been rushing back in. Now we can
(07:53):
see this in asset prices. If we look at bitcoin
for example, right here, same time period, so we can
see when the dollar index went down, liquidy went up.
Bitcoin went down, it dropped down. We can see here
that last quarter, as the dollar index got stronger, liquidy
went down, Bitcoin dropped with it, and now we can't
(08:13):
really see it here.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
But now bitcoin has made a big turnaround.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
I think it's up ten to twelve percent in just
like the last two days at the time of its recording,
And you can see the same thing in Nasdak over
the same time period. You see the same movement as
the dollar and the global liquidity moves up and down.
The price has come up, it drops down, and now
we're starting to revert because that first core of liquidity
is just starting to.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Come into the system.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
All right, Now we have to understand these metrics and
how this works on a lag so we can really
start to position ourselves, because what we're seeing right now
is a lot of people are fearful, a lot of
people are exit out of the system, A lot of
people are waiting for the next leg to drop. They
think the world is coming to an end, like as
if the world is more uncertain than it was in
the pandemic of twenty twenty when the whole world was
(08:58):
gonna die and shipping lanes and businesses were shut down,
or it's more uncertain than it was in two thousand
and eight when the Great financial crush, the global financial
system melted down.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
Certainly not. We can look at it here gold. So
we have assets.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
If you want to know why gold is taken off
so rapidly right now, it's because gold and bitcoin hard
assets with limited supplies, scarce supplies, are more sensitive to liquidity.
So we can see is that gold on again a
ten to twelve week lag moves about the same because
it's more sensitive, and it also rises and falls with equity.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
So here we have a chart again from Michael.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
Howe, global equity in orange right here, and the gold
price in black, and so we can see these moves
and the lag that we have in them. And so
we're seeing right now with the global equity ticking up
and the price of gold is going up, and eventually
these lines will catch up. We can see the same
thing if we look at it in bitcoin terms as well.
So for example, bitcoin is similar except for it's a
(09:56):
fixed supply, not a scarce supply. Right there will never
be more than twenty one million, which makes it much
more sensitive. Not to mention, not just because the scarcely,
but also because of the size of the market cap.
It's much harder to move a fourteen trillion dollar market
caap than it is a two trillion dollar market cap,
So we can see that bitcoin is very similar, except
for in this case it's also much more sensitive because
of the liquidity and the overall size. And again we
(10:18):
have the global equity in the orange line right here,
and we can see how we're ticking up right here,
but the bitcoin price hasn't responded yet. Why oh yeah,
because it's a three month lag. So this right here
in January, we'll start to see right here in April,
and we already have before. He gone from about eighty
(10:39):
to over ninety thousand in just two days, so we're
starting to see this.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
Moving in really really rapidly.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Now we can see this. Here's another chart from Raw Paul.
I've also had Raw Paul on my show. We've talked
about this extensively. We'll link to that down below in
the description as well, and he shows this in a
similar way, but he adjusts it for the lag.
Speaker 2 (10:58):
So, for example, what we.
Speaker 1 (10:59):
Have right here in the white line is we have
the global liquidity adjusted for a twelve week lag, and
then in the green line we have bitcoin. And what
we can see is that they overlay almost exactly when
you adjust it for the three month lag, and what
we can see is that we've been in this bottoming
zone right here, both in the bitcoin price and the
(11:21):
global liquidity, because as I said, it was drained now
last year I'm sorry last year last quarter, and now
that global liquidity is taking off, we expect or we're
seeing already the bitcoin price is following it. So you
can see this over and over and over through all
of these charts. Now, I want to just draw your
attention back to the main topic that's dominated news headlines.
(11:43):
It's been dominating my YouTube feed, so if you watch
my videos regularly, it's been dominating what you see as well.
Speaker 2 (11:49):
But the reason why we talk about.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
What Scott Ascent is doing and Howard Lutnick is doing
and Trump is doing is because they're trying to do
something monumental. They're trying to change is the entire global
monetary system, and they're using tariffs to do this and
using trade negotiations to do this. But there's a couple
of things that I want to draw your attention to,
mainly read and listen why because typically we've had you know,
(12:15):
politicians and fed board governors, they try to sort of
hide what they're doing they try to mislead us, so we.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
Don't front run the markets. We don't front run them.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
But the Trump administration has done something much differently. They're
laying it all out there for you, and if you
read and listen to it, you'll hear exactly what they're
having to say.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
On Trump's head of his Economic.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Advisory Board, Hudson Bay Capital wrote this executive summary in
November of twenty twenty four, when Trump was running for president,
when he was winning presidents I go before he was there,
and this.
Speaker 2 (12:48):
Report you can find it online.
Speaker 1 (12:50):
It lays out exactly what Trump is doing to a tee.
Butscent is talking about it now. What we can hear
now is that, well, if you read the report, the
goal was to push the terraffs and then bring them back,
use the terrats for negotiations and bring them back. And
already this is exactly what we're seeing all over the news.
Headlines are Trump's caving. He's always gonna cave. Yeah, that
(13:11):
was always the plan. If you read the art of
the deal, you anchor high, you negotiate off with us.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
It was in the report right here.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
In this video last night, Scott Passent was saying Hey,
we have these deals.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
They're coming together. We've got the negotiations here.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
We have a tweet that I put up the other
day and I said, India, tell me there's a trade
deal coming, without telling me there's a trade deal coming,
because we have the President of India over here in
the United States, we got Jdvans over there visiting him,
all this favorable talk.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
Like the deals are coming.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
And while everybody's focused on that on two DS, the
undercurrent is the global equitty that's really driving things. And
regardless of what happens here, we know more the quidy
is rushing in the system. That's why I've been talking
about it over and over and over for the last
two years now or so. If we keep our eyes
focused on that and sportives start to ignore the noise,
we can.
Speaker 2 (13:59):
See the quid is doing.
Speaker 1 (14:00):
And we have time. We have a three month lag
to get in position or out of position. Now you're
out of time because now the tide is already rushing
back in. Bitcoin's already up over ten thousand dollars. If
you miss those ten thousand dollars days, you miss most
of your games.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
So we want to get in.
Speaker 1 (14:15):
A position before the Tide runs not after This is
how I'm watching it.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
Just for your reference.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
He makes Michael Howell makes his own proprietary charts.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
I think they're the best in the business. My friend
Nick Bodia, he makes one.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
At the Bitcoin Layer they make one that's really really
good as well.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
It tracks almost perfectly.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Ral Paul at Real Vision makes one as well, tracks
it perfectly.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
Not perfectly, but very closely.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
If you want a very rough way to do it,
you can just look at Global IMP two. Not us
HIM two, but Global IM two. It's not as good,
not as high deaf, but still pretty good. Those are
ways that you can trackt this on your own. Of course,
just watch my channel because I'm going to report it
to you all the time. Let me know what you
thinking about this in the comments down below. Of course,
that's always gonna be thumbs up if you like, get
thumbs down if you don't.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
That's okay either way. Let me know. And that's what
I got. All right, to your success. I'm out
Host
Mark Moss
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