June 29, 2025 • 23 mins
The headlines say the economy is crashing again... but what does the actual data say? Because when I dug into the numbers myself... what I found was shocking. It’s nothing like the headlines would have you believe. In fact—there’s one stat that could flip the entire narrative upside down. If you’re just doom-scrolling headlines and sitting in fear, you could miss the biggest wealth window of this decade. I’m Mark Moss. I’ve spent 20 years tracking boom-bust cycles and helping investors cut through the noise and what I’m about to show you might completely change how you see the economy.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The headlines say the economy is crashing again, But what
does the actual data say? Because when I dug into
the numbers myself, what I found was shocking. Now, it's
nothing like the headlines would have you believe. In fact,
there's one stat that would flip the entire narrative upside down.
And if you're just doom scrolling headlines, you're sitting there
(00:20):
in fear, then you're gonna miss the biggest wealth window
of this decade real quick. I'm Mark Mossov spent over
twenty years tracking boom and bus cycles, helping investors cut
through the noise to find the signal. And what I'm
about to show you might completely change how you see
the economy. So let's go all right, So we're gonna
jump right into it, and we're gonna show you. Well,
(00:42):
first the doomer headlines that gets all the headlines, and
the reason why is it gets all the clicks. And
to be honest with you, it's hard for me getting
you to come watch this video if I don't have
some sort of doomer. So we'll start the bad news
and then we'll get to the real data. Now, the
big bad doomer headline is GENIP gross domestic product went negative. Negative.
Now this is after eleven quarters of positive growth. It's
(01:05):
a big deal. Trump is crashing the economy. What is
he doing? How dare he wreck the entire world economy?
Don't you know that other nations are going to hate
the United States and love did you trade with us? Again?
And all of those things? Well? Well, yes, So here
is a government statistic. This is from the BEEA, the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, And what this is showing is
(01:27):
GDP gross domestic product for the first quarter of twenty
twenty five. And what they're showing is that we have
now a negative quarter after all these positive quarters. This
is this line here is about three percent, so a
little bit less than three percent, and now we have
a negative print. Boohoo. The media headlines love to pick
up on this, and it's true. Now, if we go
out a little bit further, you might remember this. By
(01:49):
the way, I'm using some charts here from my friends
over at the Bitcoin Layer. You should check them out.
We'll link to them in the description down below. Also,
my friend Pete saint Ange, we're using some stuff from
his news as well. But what we can see here
is that we have this negative GDP print. After all
these positive gdpre prints except for this one over here.
Now you might remember this one when Biden was president
(02:12):
and everyone starts talking about the US is in a recession,
and then Biden says the Biden administration says, well, that's
not a technical recession. You might remember that anyway. So
now we have a negative GDP print. However, that's the headline.
What we want to do is we want to peel
back the data, what's in the GDP so we can
(02:32):
understand what's really going on. Is this something that we
should be alarmed for or is this something that we
should think about differently? Okay, so the data. We want
to go into the data. That's why I show you
the charts. I show you the graphs so you can
see the size of the speed, all those things. And
we first of all want to understand GDP. So GDP
is gross domestic product g domestic product. The reason why
(02:54):
I say that is because first of all, GDP is
all messed up, Like if the government is taking money
from you and I from TIMEX dollars and spending that
should they be counted as gross domestic product? It's not
really producing any product. It's just redistribution, right. It certainly
shouldn't be counting Toyota trucks that were made overseas and
then brought into the United States, and so the whole
GDP basket is a little bit messed up. As a
(03:15):
matter of fact, Howard Lutnik, the new Secretary of Commerce,
says he wants to redo the entire GDB basket, which
I think I'm welcoming, okay, But understanding that because it's
domestic product, then we can start to understand the data.
What am I talking about? Well, what we can see
is that when we peel back the curtain and look
at the data, what we see is that imports surged
(03:36):
forty one percent, so again from the bea contributions to
the percent change in GDP for the first quarter. And
what we can see is that we have consumer spending
was positive. Investment spending was big time positive. We're going
to come back to that government spending was down. That
should be good, right, Government spending was down and exports
(03:58):
up a little bit. But here look at this one
right here, this is a big negative. Imports. The imports
were a big negative to GDP. Why because it's supposed
to be domestic product. So if we're importing from someone else,
that sort of takes away from the domestic product, which
is why it counts as a negative. But here's the problem.
We have this forty one percent surge in imports, so
(04:20):
it takes away from GDP, giving it this negative thing.
But why is this a massive surge of imports? Well
because of tariffs, because tariffs were announced, massive tariffs maybe
you know, one hundred and hundre percent on China, and
so everybody is front rating. Everyone's trying to import all
the goods they need right now because they don't know
what the prices will be later. And so we have
(04:41):
this what I'm calling a sugar rush. That's all happening now.
It's important understanding this is like a one time thing.
This isn't like a new trend. This is something that
will continue. It's a one time thing, and it's because
of this unusual circumstance of like I said, of these
tariffs and not knowing what's going to be next. So
what we want to do is what does that mean
If it's a one time thing that was because of
(05:01):
this tariff, it's not an ongoing thing, Well, what would
happen if that wasn't there, let's take a look at that.
What we can see is that all the pain was
caused by a forty one percent surge of imports from
Pete Saint one fronting tariffs, and this counts as negative GDP,
so it counts against it the actual GDP. If we
take that out, the actual GDP sored by a blistering
(05:23):
four and a half percent. Now I just showed you
the historical GDP for the last couple of years. Four
and a half percent is massive. It's way bigger than
we've seen in the last several years. Blistering as he
calls it. But it actually gets better than that. Hold on,
there's more. Because government spending dropped for the first time
since twenty twenty two. I showed you that in the chart.
(05:44):
Why is that a good thing? Well, because remember the
government spending is only spending money that it's taken from
you and I, So one, it shouldn't be double counted.
Number two, the government's running massive deficits. So there's about
two trillion roughly of spending per year that's debt into
the debt. So if the government can spend less, then
one we bring the debt down number one, but number two.
(06:05):
It gets even better than that because consumer spending outpaced
government spending by three point two percent. So private spending,
consumer spending, that's the real data, not the government spending,
not the fiscal spending. It's you and I. So that's
why government went down, consumer spending picked up. This is
also the best number since twenty twenty two. The Biden
(06:27):
administration was hiring massive amounts of government workers, bringing the
government spending numbers up to sort of goose the data,
goost the numbers, So a lot of the bad numbers
that we're seeing are getting back to like real data,
which is why we're seeing the best numbers since twenty
twenty two. Now, control for that dropping government spending, and
the economy grew by nearly five percent. So now you
(06:47):
take out the one time sugar rush, you adjust for
the difference in consumer and government spending, and now we
have an economy growing by nearly five percent. Sounds really good.
There's more in the data. We're going to get to it.
Remember there was one stat I was going to show you,
So now we're about five percent. Now, I want to
just say real quickly before we go too deep. I
(07:08):
like to look at the data. If you're new to
the channel, you may not have been watching me for
very long. Here's some videos that are pulled going back
to October of twenty two. Now you might remember in
October of twenty twenty two, the whole world was going
to end, the markets were going to crash and all
these things, and I made a video said, there is
no market crash coming. And here's why. The real data.
The FED doesn't want you to see the data showing
(07:30):
it's time to buy. The central banks are going to
be forced into this playbook easing the markets. Breaking data
shows the FED pivots here it's time to start buying.
The new data tells us it's time to buy. So
this is from October twenty twenty two, going all the
way forward, we have one of the why aren't the
markets crash coming? Breaking that down for my prediction for
financial markets on and on on, bear markets canceled, on
(07:54):
and on and on. Now that was out of time
again when the whole world thought the markets were going
to crash, and it was right here in the lows.
October of twenty two is when I started making those videos.
And of course the Nasdaq is up about one hundred
percent since that time. Also some more receipts here. These
are videos I made telling you was historic times to
buy bitcoin six seven, twenty two, nineteen thousand, seven nineteen
(08:17):
twenty two, nineteen thousand Bitcoin is fifteen thousand, twenty thousand,
twenty six thousand. Of course, now it's up over one
hundred thousand dollars or around one hundred thousand dollars right now.
So I just want to show you that I haven't
always been a doomer. I have the receipts to prove it,
and those videos are all still up on my channel.
You can go watch them. So why do I say
that real quickly? Because we can look past the headlines,
(08:39):
and look past the media, and look past the hysteria
and look at the data, we see something different. Okay,
Before I go on to tell you about this hidden
bowl market and what the data is really telling this
is going to happen, I want to let you know
that next week I'm gonna have a live event like
I do about every four to six weeks, where I
can go into depth. Here, we'll go about an hour.
I'm gonna have about thirty thirty five charts show you
(09:00):
exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio. It's
one thing to have the knowledge, but if you don't
apply the knowledge, if you don't know what assets to
buy to take advantage of this bull run, it doesn't
really do it a lot of good. So come hang out.
I'm going to break the entire case down, show you
all the charts to graphs what I'm buying, and then
we hang out live Q and A. It's super fun.
We'll answer all your questions. It's all free. There's a
link down below if you want to come join me,
Join me live. Hope to see you there. But what
(09:23):
is the data showing us? And why do I think
there's a hidden bull market ready to emerge? Well, a
couple of reasons again back into the data. Number one,
we want to look at the private the sales to
private domestic purchasers, the consumers, the private domessage purchase, the
PCE and what we can see here going back to
(09:43):
twenty twenty two, we can see that we are still
above sort of normal. Right. We don't have this big
sugar rush that was kind of the snapback reversion of
the mean here, but we're doing really well. The market's
looking actually really really strong, nothing like you would hear
on the news that the consumers stretch, then the economy
is crumbling all those things. So it's up three percent.
(10:04):
We can see the PCE we can see is up
one point seven nine percent. This is of personal consumption expenditures.
We can see here. The green is the consumer spending
services of two point almost two point four percent, the
red here consumer spending goods total a little bit low,
and then consumer spending non durable goods two point seven percent. Ay,
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past the headlines, past the media driven polls, and looking
at the data, what we can see is that there's
kind of a difference in shifting of purchases. But we
(11:30):
can see here there's a rise in personal savings. So
on top of that, personal savings has also gone up.
So the consumer is still spending, they're still buying. On
top of the spending. On top of the buying holding up,
we have savings going up. So that tells something very different.
That tells that the economy is not crumbling, that the
consumer is doing pretty good. Now, look, I understand there's
(11:51):
millions of people that are not doing good. There's also
millions of people that are doing really good, and so
this is not a model that everybody's a little bit different.
But the data is showing us that the economy is
not crumbling like they want to say it is. However,
this doesn't even break down what I really think is happening. Okay,
the businesses, the business spending, the business investments are going parabolic,
(12:13):
consumers holding up. Businesses are going parabolic. Let me break
what I break that down. All right, what we've seen
here I talked about this on a previous video, that
private investments, businesses investing into their future production, into factories
and equipment things that are up twenty two percent. Twenty
two percent. We are talking a massive number. This is
(12:34):
the biggest spike since twenty twenty one. Again from my
friends over the bitcoin layer. US business capital spending and
so what we can see here Q one. Look how
big those numbers are. Look how big those numbers are.
I mean, you don't even compare. This is just on
Q one. Now what does that mean for us? Well,
if businesses, the smart consumer, the one that's paying attention,
(12:57):
the one that has skinning the game, if they're making
this big of investments into the future, new equipment, new buildings,
new manufacturing, things like that, they are expecting big things
to happen. All right, there's more to that, we'll break
down that. But that's big. Equipment spending is up twenty
two and a half percent. Again, this is long term thinking.
This is the big businesses they see positive economic growth
(13:18):
in the future. The big one here information processing equipment,
information processing, think data centers, think computers is up seventy
percent annualized. This is an all time record, all time
record spending in information processing services. And I recently did
a video on Trump announced eight trillion dollars has already
(13:39):
been committed to be invested into the United States. Eight
trillion dollars or twenty two percent, massive and new deals.
We'll link to that video right here if you want,
or check it out on the description dob the eight
trillion dollar tsunami that's about to hit, we'll call it that.
And really, what we're seeing is this new industrial revolution.
This is just the beginning. We're eight trillion dollars just
(14:00):
being invested into the country right now. But what does
that mean? Where does it go? And so much more? Well,
Number one, we have an AI boom and it's onshore
and boom. So as I said, the information processing, the
computers AI is driving the capex, the capital expenditures. So
we have this massive surge seventy one percent on an
(14:21):
annualized basis an all time record on that. And why
do you think that is? Well, because AI is taking
off so fast, we have physical compute is needed right
so in order to build all these large language models,
all these llms. You need lots of compute, You need
lots of servers, you need warehouses, you need data centers,
you need lots of materials to build these things out.
(14:44):
We can see again. Let's take a look at a
chart courtesy of the Bitcoin Layer US real private fixed
investment for information processing equipment, and look at this number
right here compared to some mean right here since two
thousand and eight. Now, obviously AI is something new, but
since two thousand and eight, we had the iPhone and
(15:04):
we had cloud competing and all that take off as well.
This is taking off at a whole nother level like
we've never even seen before. And really we're seeing this
new wave of onshouring. Like I said, over eight trillion
dollars has been announced to be built here, and a
lot of that is in this information marketing. Now, if
you follow my work, it shouldn't be a big surprise
to you. Of course, I always talk about the quantum
(15:26):
leaf cycle that happens about every fifty years, and the
one that is just starting. So this happened six times one, two, three,
four or five. We're on the sixth one right now,
and this is the decentralized revolution. This is the convergence
of bitcoin and AI coming together and how they work
together to give us a whole nother set of building
blocks to build things that we don't even know about.
(15:46):
So if you follow my work and you understand the cycles,
this AI boom shouldn't be a big surprise. It's more
of a confirmation of that. Okay, And we have this
new wave of onshooring. And this is again even for
blue collar workers. Right We need to build the warehouse,
we need to build the data centers. It's the largest
relocation of capital since World War II. I just did
(16:07):
a video on this talking about how after World War
II the US sort of had this wartime economy and reindustrialized,
and now we're doing the same thing. Right now, I
expect another massive era of prosperity. The reason why is
because the US is becoming the global hub for this,
the global hub for AI, the global hub for processing,
(16:28):
the global hub for data processing. It's all happening right here. Okay.
So that's the data with a little bit of my
opinion on top of it. But the data is the data.
So what we're trying to do as investors is we're
trying to find the signal through all the noise, because
there's plenty of noise out there. For anyone saying one thing,
you can find someone saying the other. What do they
say about opinions fill in the blank. I'm not going
(16:50):
to answer that, right, But we've all this noise. And again,
what gets media headlines, what gets YouTube views, what gets
you to click on these videos is talking about sensational,
new more stuff. But we want to find the signal,
and we do that by understanding what's fact data and
then what's opinion? All right, so that's what we want
to understand. The noise is all the negative headlines that
(17:12):
gets you to click, But the signal tells us something different,
and we can choose to interpret the data differently. But
what we can see is by looking at some of
these charts, it can give us more information. So for example,
when this was announced, the negative GDP print and all
the news media ran into hysteria telling you how bad
things are and Trump's going to crash the entire world.
What we saw is that risk assets which would typically
(17:35):
sell off quickly like the bitcoin, like S and P
five hundred, for example, they didn't. They didn't sell off.
As a matter of fact, they're really very resilient and
they've only been going up since then. Huh. That's interesting.
So the media is trying to whip us up into hysteria.
The YouTubers and the Twitter people are trying to put
us in that hysteria. But the data, huh, the assets
(17:57):
were pretty resilient. We also know that if we you
look at global liquidity again, if you watch my channel
on a regular basis, you know that I always talk
about global equidity because it's global liquidity pushes asset prices higher,
so we always want to keep our eye on that.
One of my favorite people to follow for global equity
is Michael how This just came out a couple of
days ago. Global equity is rising. That's the headline. It's rising.
(18:18):
How much is it rising? It reached a new all
time high of one hundred and seventy seven trillion dollars,
a new all time high. On liquidy, it's still coming on,
but it gets better. Expect the current liquidity cycle. Oh,
he expected the current liquidity cycle to peak around Q
four this year, so he's been talking about this. Of course,
I talk about his research all the time. We typically
(18:38):
have about these four year liquidity cycles, not to the
day plus or minus. And because of that, he's been
expecting it to peak sometime around the end of this year.
Of course, if you're a bitcoin bowl, you understand there's
four year cycles as well. It's a lot of people
think that maybe bitcoin would peak around the end of
this year as well. However, he says, however, the rapidly
deteriorating global economy, which will likely spur central banks to
(19:02):
ease we've already seen it, has caused us to reconsider
maybe it's not gonna end twenty twenty six. All in all,
we now expect the cycle to peak in mid twenty
twenty six because right now the central banks are just
starting to fire up their money printers, if you will.
The Federal Reserve is just has just been easing lately.
(19:22):
Right this is all getting going, and so he thought
it might peak in them the year, and now I
says mid twenty twenty six. And because of that, risk
asset markets and liquidity sensitive cryptocurrencies. So basically risk assets
bitcoin are benefiting. Hmm. Okay, so that's the data, that's
the data. Global equidity is rising. We also can look
(19:45):
at the data and go well, the bonds, the bond market,
they didn't crash, they hold study. As a matter of fact,
they eased a little bit. So all of the data
points are telling us that the signal tells us that
things are really good, and not just really good. They're
loading up for a sling shot. That's what it's telling us.
We see rising wages and stable inflation. So if wages
(20:09):
are going up and inflation is stable, so wages are
going up faster than the cost of goods, that means
the consumer has more money to spend, which means a
better economy. Now, we can also see because of this,
because of liquidity easy and rising, we can also see
a change in consumer credit lags by about a year,
(20:29):
and so because liquidity has been going up, we can
expect consumer credit to be going up next. And again,
if the consumer gets credit, what do they do They
spend it on things more cars, more vacations, more going
out to eat whatever, more clothes, et cetera. They should
be buying assets. You and I we're buying assets the
consumer though. Okay, so what we want to understand is
(20:50):
that there's a fake chap. The media is incentivized to
get you in fear to get clicks. They're also, unfortunately
in the United States, heavily politicized, and they use the
media politicized as a weapon. So one day one clicks two,
they use it as a weapon. So we don't want
to get trapped in that fake trap. We want to
understand that they weaponized fear and learn how to separate
(21:13):
fact and fiction, fact and opinion. The GDP is a
headline number, it's a lagging indicator, and it's also a
distorted metric. I've explained that to you and why that is.
Fear equals clicks. Clicks equals you stay broke again. I
started making videos in October twenty twenty two, told people's
time to buy. I was putting money back in and
(21:34):
so many people sat on the sidelines. One of my
good friends, he's a big macroeconomic YouTuber. You might know
who I'm talking about. We do a lot of videos together.
We had dinner in August of twenty twenty three after
I made that video called the bear Market is Canceled,
and he told me, Mark, how irresponsible of you to
make that video right now? Don't you know the yield
curve is inverted and blah blah, blah, Yeah, but bigcoin
(21:54):
was like thirty five thousand. Now it's tripled since then.
So how much money you lose on the sideline crippled
in fear because the media is weaponizing these headlines against
you instead of just looking at the data. Now, what
I see, because I study history, I see this mirrors
past moments like two thousand and nine or like twenty twenty.
(22:15):
Those were historic times to be buying and pushing into
the markets, not sitting on the sidelines crippled with fear.
The cost to following the fear narrative is what we
call lost opportunity cost. It's missing this window. That's the cost,
and ultimately you'll miss generational buying opportunities. This only comes
(22:36):
around every fifty years. The fifty year quantum wave cycle
tells us this. So you can sit on the sideline
cripple the fear because of the news headlines, or you
can learn how to read the data and understand this
only comes around in fifty years, Or you can let
me interpret the data for you. Come hang out with
me next week. I'll break down about one hundred charts,
we'll go live. I'll tell you exactly how to apply
(22:56):
this to your own portfolio where I think the very
best investments are, and then we'll hang out out. We'll
do all the live Q and A so you can
figure out exactly how to answer your questions and apply
Drum portfolio. There's a link down below if you want
to come hang out and hang out for free. Hope
to see you there. But otherwise, if you want to
understand this a little bit better, you probably want to
watch this video right here about where eight trillion dollars
is actually gonna go. And I hope to see you
(23:17):
over on that other video
The headlines say the economy is crashing again, But what
does the actual data say? Because when I dug into
the numbers myself, what I found was shocking. Now, it's
nothing like the headlines would have you believe. In fact,
there's one stat that would flip the entire narrative upside down.
And if you're just doom scrolling headlines, you're sitting there
(00:20):
in fear, then you're gonna miss the biggest wealth window
of this decade real quick. I'm Mark Mossov spent over
twenty years tracking boom and bus cycles, helping investors cut
through the noise to find the signal. And what I'm
about to show you might completely change how you see
the economy. So let's go all right, So we're gonna
jump right into it, and we're gonna show you. Well,
(00:42):
first the doomer headlines that gets all the headlines, and
the reason why is it gets all the clicks. And
to be honest with you, it's hard for me getting
you to come watch this video if I don't have
some sort of doomer. So we'll start the bad news
and then we'll get to the real data. Now, the
big bad doomer headline is GENIP gross domestic product went negative. Negative.
Now this is after eleven quarters of positive growth. It's
(01:05):
a big deal. Trump is crashing the economy. What is
he doing? How dare he wreck the entire world economy?
Don't you know that other nations are going to hate
the United States and love did you trade with us? Again?
And all of those things? Well? Well, yes, So here
is a government statistic. This is from the BEEA, the
Bureau of Economic Analysis, And what this is showing is
(01:27):
GDP gross domestic product for the first quarter of twenty
twenty five. And what they're showing is that we have
now a negative quarter after all these positive quarters. This
is this line here is about three percent, so a
little bit less than three percent, and now we have
a negative print. Boohoo. The media headlines love to pick
up on this, and it's true. Now, if we go
out a little bit further, you might remember this. By
(01:49):
the way, I'm using some charts here from my friends
over at the Bitcoin Layer. You should check them out.
We'll link to them in the description down below. Also,
my friend Pete saint Ange, we're using some stuff from
his news as well. But what we can see here
is that we have this negative GDP print. After all
these positive gdpre prints except for this one over here.
Now you might remember this one when Biden was president
(02:12):
and everyone starts talking about the US is in a recession,
and then Biden says the Biden administration says, well, that's
not a technical recession. You might remember that anyway. So
now we have a negative GDP print. However, that's the headline.
What we want to do is we want to peel
back the data, what's in the GDP so we can
(02:32):
understand what's really going on. Is this something that we
should be alarmed for or is this something that we
should think about differently? Okay, so the data. We want
to go into the data. That's why I show you
the charts. I show you the graphs so you can
see the size of the speed, all those things. And
we first of all want to understand GDP. So GDP
is gross domestic product g domestic product. The reason why
(02:54):
I say that is because first of all, GDP is
all messed up, Like if the government is taking money
from you and I from TIMEX dollars and spending that
should they be counted as gross domestic product? It's not
really producing any product. It's just redistribution, right. It certainly
shouldn't be counting Toyota trucks that were made overseas and
then brought into the United States, and so the whole
GDP basket is a little bit messed up. As a
(03:15):
matter of fact, Howard Lutnik, the new Secretary of Commerce,
says he wants to redo the entire GDB basket, which
I think I'm welcoming, okay, But understanding that because it's
domestic product, then we can start to understand the data.
What am I talking about? Well, what we can see
is that when we peel back the curtain and look
at the data, what we see is that imports surged
(03:36):
forty one percent, so again from the bea contributions to
the percent change in GDP for the first quarter. And
what we can see is that we have consumer spending
was positive. Investment spending was big time positive. We're going
to come back to that government spending was down. That
should be good, right, Government spending was down and exports
(03:58):
up a little bit. But here look at this one
right here, this is a big negative. Imports. The imports
were a big negative to GDP. Why because it's supposed
to be domestic product. So if we're importing from someone else,
that sort of takes away from the domestic product, which
is why it counts as a negative. But here's the problem.
We have this forty one percent surge in imports, so
(04:20):
it takes away from GDP, giving it this negative thing.
But why is this a massive surge of imports? Well
because of tariffs, because tariffs were announced, massive tariffs maybe
you know, one hundred and hundre percent on China, and
so everybody is front rating. Everyone's trying to import all
the goods they need right now because they don't know
what the prices will be later. And so we have
(04:41):
this what I'm calling a sugar rush. That's all happening now.
It's important understanding this is like a one time thing.
This isn't like a new trend. This is something that
will continue. It's a one time thing, and it's because
of this unusual circumstance of like I said, of these
tariffs and not knowing what's going to be next. So
what we want to do is what does that mean
If it's a one time thing that was because of
(05:01):
this tariff, it's not an ongoing thing, Well, what would
happen if that wasn't there, let's take a look at that.
What we can see is that all the pain was
caused by a forty one percent surge of imports from
Pete Saint one fronting tariffs, and this counts as negative GDP,
so it counts against it the actual GDP. If we
take that out, the actual GDP sored by a blistering
(05:23):
four and a half percent. Now I just showed you
the historical GDP for the last couple of years. Four
and a half percent is massive. It's way bigger than
we've seen in the last several years. Blistering as he
calls it. But it actually gets better than that. Hold on,
there's more. Because government spending dropped for the first time
since twenty twenty two. I showed you that in the chart.
(05:44):
Why is that a good thing? Well, because remember the
government spending is only spending money that it's taken from
you and I, So one, it shouldn't be double counted.
Number two, the government's running massive deficits. So there's about
two trillion roughly of spending per year that's debt into
the debt. So if the government can spend less, then
one we bring the debt down number one, but number two.
(06:05):
It gets even better than that because consumer spending outpaced
government spending by three point two percent. So private spending,
consumer spending, that's the real data, not the government spending,
not the fiscal spending. It's you and I. So that's
why government went down, consumer spending picked up. This is
also the best number since twenty twenty two. The Biden
(06:27):
administration was hiring massive amounts of government workers, bringing the
government spending numbers up to sort of goose the data,
goost the numbers, So a lot of the bad numbers
that we're seeing are getting back to like real data,
which is why we're seeing the best numbers since twenty
twenty two. Now, control for that dropping government spending, and
the economy grew by nearly five percent. So now you
(06:47):
take out the one time sugar rush, you adjust for
the difference in consumer and government spending, and now we
have an economy growing by nearly five percent. Sounds really good.
There's more in the data. We're going to get to it.
Remember there was one stat I was going to show you,
So now we're about five percent. Now, I want to
just say real quickly before we go too deep. I
(07:08):
like to look at the data. If you're new to
the channel, you may not have been watching me for
very long. Here's some videos that are pulled going back
to October of twenty two. Now you might remember in
October of twenty twenty two, the whole world was going
to end, the markets were going to crash and all
these things, and I made a video said, there is
no market crash coming. And here's why. The real data.
The FED doesn't want you to see the data showing
(07:30):
it's time to buy. The central banks are going to
be forced into this playbook easing the markets. Breaking data
shows the FED pivots here it's time to start buying.
The new data tells us it's time to buy. So
this is from October twenty twenty two, going all the
way forward, we have one of the why aren't the
markets crash coming? Breaking that down for my prediction for
financial markets on and on on, bear markets canceled, on
(07:54):
and on and on. Now that was out of time
again when the whole world thought the markets were going
to crash, and it was right here in the lows.
October of twenty two is when I started making those videos.
And of course the Nasdaq is up about one hundred
percent since that time. Also some more receipts here. These
are videos I made telling you was historic times to
buy bitcoin six seven, twenty two, nineteen thousand, seven nineteen
(08:17):
twenty two, nineteen thousand Bitcoin is fifteen thousand, twenty thousand,
twenty six thousand. Of course, now it's up over one
hundred thousand dollars or around one hundred thousand dollars right now.
So I just want to show you that I haven't
always been a doomer. I have the receipts to prove it,
and those videos are all still up on my channel.
You can go watch them. So why do I say
that real quickly? Because we can look past the headlines,
(08:39):
and look past the media, and look past the hysteria
and look at the data, we see something different. Okay,
Before I go on to tell you about this hidden
bowl market and what the data is really telling this
is going to happen, I want to let you know
that next week I'm gonna have a live event like
I do about every four to six weeks, where I
can go into depth. Here, we'll go about an hour.
I'm gonna have about thirty thirty five charts show you
(09:00):
exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio. It's
one thing to have the knowledge, but if you don't
apply the knowledge, if you don't know what assets to
buy to take advantage of this bull run, it doesn't
really do it a lot of good. So come hang out.
I'm going to break the entire case down, show you
all the charts to graphs what I'm buying, and then
we hang out live Q and A. It's super fun.
We'll answer all your questions. It's all free. There's a
link down below if you want to come join me,
Join me live. Hope to see you there. But what
(09:23):
is the data showing us? And why do I think
there's a hidden bull market ready to emerge? Well, a
couple of reasons again back into the data. Number one,
we want to look at the private the sales to
private domestic purchasers, the consumers, the private domessage purchase, the
PCE and what we can see here going back to
(09:43):
twenty twenty two, we can see that we are still
above sort of normal. Right. We don't have this big
sugar rush that was kind of the snapback reversion of
the mean here, but we're doing really well. The market's
looking actually really really strong, nothing like you would hear
on the news that the consumers stretch, then the economy
is crumbling all those things. So it's up three percent.
(10:04):
We can see the PCE we can see is up
one point seven nine percent. This is of personal consumption expenditures.
We can see here. The green is the consumer spending
services of two point almost two point four percent, the
red here consumer spending goods total a little bit low,
and then consumer spending non durable goods two point seven percent. Ay,
(10:24):
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dot com, slash podcasts. So the spending is looking really good. Again,
past the headlines, past the media driven polls, and looking
at the data, what we can see is that there's
kind of a difference in shifting of purchases. But we
(11:30):
can see here there's a rise in personal savings. So
on top of that, personal savings has also gone up.
So the consumer is still spending, they're still buying. On
top of the spending. On top of the buying holding up,
we have savings going up. So that tells something very different.
That tells that the economy is not crumbling, that the
consumer is doing pretty good. Now, look, I understand there's
(11:51):
millions of people that are not doing good. There's also
millions of people that are doing really good, and so
this is not a model that everybody's a little bit different.
But the data is showing us that the economy is
not crumbling like they want to say it is. However,
this doesn't even break down what I really think is happening. Okay,
the businesses, the business spending, the business investments are going parabolic,
(12:13):
consumers holding up. Businesses are going parabolic. Let me break
what I break that down. All right, what we've seen
here I talked about this on a previous video, that
private investments, businesses investing into their future production, into factories
and equipment things that are up twenty two percent. Twenty
two percent. We are talking a massive number. This is
(12:34):
the biggest spike since twenty twenty one. Again from my
friends over the bitcoin layer. US business capital spending and
so what we can see here Q one. Look how
big those numbers are. Look how big those numbers are.
I mean, you don't even compare. This is just on
Q one. Now what does that mean for us? Well,
if businesses, the smart consumer, the one that's paying attention,
(12:57):
the one that has skinning the game, if they're making
this big of investments into the future, new equipment, new buildings,
new manufacturing, things like that, they are expecting big things
to happen. All right, there's more to that, we'll break
down that. But that's big. Equipment spending is up twenty
two and a half percent. Again, this is long term thinking.
This is the big businesses they see positive economic growth
(13:18):
in the future. The big one here information processing equipment,
information processing, think data centers, think computers is up seventy
percent annualized. This is an all time record, all time
record spending in information processing services. And I recently did
a video on Trump announced eight trillion dollars has already
(13:39):
been committed to be invested into the United States. Eight
trillion dollars or twenty two percent, massive and new deals.
We'll link to that video right here if you want,
or check it out on the description dob the eight
trillion dollar tsunami that's about to hit, we'll call it that.
And really, what we're seeing is this new industrial revolution.
This is just the beginning. We're eight trillion dollars just
(14:00):
being invested into the country right now. But what does
that mean? Where does it go? And so much more? Well,
Number one, we have an AI boom and it's onshore
and boom. So as I said, the information processing, the
computers AI is driving the capex, the capital expenditures. So
we have this massive surge seventy one percent on an
(14:21):
annualized basis an all time record on that. And why
do you think that is? Well, because AI is taking
off so fast, we have physical compute is needed right
so in order to build all these large language models,
all these llms. You need lots of compute, You need
lots of servers, you need warehouses, you need data centers,
you need lots of materials to build these things out.
(14:44):
We can see again. Let's take a look at a
chart courtesy of the Bitcoin Layer US real private fixed
investment for information processing equipment, and look at this number
right here compared to some mean right here since two
thousand and eight. Now, obviously AI is something new, but
since two thousand and eight, we had the iPhone and
(15:04):
we had cloud competing and all that take off as well.
This is taking off at a whole nother level like
we've never even seen before. And really we're seeing this
new wave of onshouring. Like I said, over eight trillion
dollars has been announced to be built here, and a
lot of that is in this information marketing. Now, if
you follow my work, it shouldn't be a big surprise
to you. Of course, I always talk about the quantum
(15:26):
leaf cycle that happens about every fifty years, and the
one that is just starting. So this happened six times one, two, three,
four or five. We're on the sixth one right now,
and this is the decentralized revolution. This is the convergence
of bitcoin and AI coming together and how they work
together to give us a whole nother set of building
blocks to build things that we don't even know about.
(15:46):
So if you follow my work and you understand the cycles,
this AI boom shouldn't be a big surprise. It's more
of a confirmation of that. Okay, And we have this
new wave of onshooring. And this is again even for
blue collar workers. Right We need to build the warehouse,
we need to build the data centers. It's the largest
relocation of capital since World War II. I just did
(16:07):
a video on this talking about how after World War
II the US sort of had this wartime economy and reindustrialized,
and now we're doing the same thing. Right now, I
expect another massive era of prosperity. The reason why is
because the US is becoming the global hub for this,
the global hub for AI, the global hub for processing,
(16:28):
the global hub for data processing. It's all happening right here. Okay.
So that's the data with a little bit of my
opinion on top of it. But the data is the data.
So what we're trying to do as investors is we're
trying to find the signal through all the noise, because
there's plenty of noise out there. For anyone saying one thing,
you can find someone saying the other. What do they
say about opinions fill in the blank. I'm not going
(16:50):
to answer that, right, But we've all this noise. And again,
what gets media headlines, what gets YouTube views, what gets
you to click on these videos is talking about sensational,
new more stuff. But we want to find the signal,
and we do that by understanding what's fact data and
then what's opinion? All right, so that's what we want
to understand. The noise is all the negative headlines that
(17:12):
gets you to click, But the signal tells us something different,
and we can choose to interpret the data differently. But
what we can see is by looking at some of
these charts, it can give us more information. So for example,
when this was announced, the negative GDP print and all
the news media ran into hysteria telling you how bad
things are and Trump's going to crash the entire world.
What we saw is that risk assets which would typically
(17:35):
sell off quickly like the bitcoin, like S and P
five hundred, for example, they didn't. They didn't sell off.
As a matter of fact, they're really very resilient and
they've only been going up since then. Huh. That's interesting.
So the media is trying to whip us up into hysteria.
The YouTubers and the Twitter people are trying to put
us in that hysteria. But the data, huh, the assets
(17:57):
were pretty resilient. We also know that if we you
look at global liquidity again, if you watch my channel
on a regular basis, you know that I always talk
about global equidity because it's global liquidity pushes asset prices higher,
so we always want to keep our eye on that.
One of my favorite people to follow for global equity
is Michael how This just came out a couple of
days ago. Global equity is rising. That's the headline. It's rising.
(18:18):
How much is it rising? It reached a new all
time high of one hundred and seventy seven trillion dollars,
a new all time high. On liquidy, it's still coming on,
but it gets better. Expect the current liquidity cycle. Oh,
he expected the current liquidity cycle to peak around Q
four this year, so he's been talking about this. Of course,
I talk about his research all the time. We typically
(18:38):
have about these four year liquidity cycles, not to the
day plus or minus. And because of that, he's been
expecting it to peak sometime around the end of this year.
Of course, if you're a bitcoin bowl, you understand there's
four year cycles as well. It's a lot of people
think that maybe bitcoin would peak around the end of
this year as well. However, he says, however, the rapidly
deteriorating global economy, which will likely spur central banks to
(19:02):
ease we've already seen it, has caused us to reconsider
maybe it's not gonna end twenty twenty six. All in all,
we now expect the cycle to peak in mid twenty
twenty six because right now the central banks are just
starting to fire up their money printers, if you will.
The Federal Reserve is just has just been easing lately.
(19:22):
Right this is all getting going, and so he thought
it might peak in them the year, and now I
says mid twenty twenty six. And because of that, risk
asset markets and liquidity sensitive cryptocurrencies. So basically risk assets
bitcoin are benefiting. Hmm. Okay, so that's the data, that's
the data. Global equidity is rising. We also can look
(19:45):
at the data and go well, the bonds, the bond market,
they didn't crash, they hold study. As a matter of fact,
they eased a little bit. So all of the data
points are telling us that the signal tells us that
things are really good, and not just really good. They're
loading up for a sling shot. That's what it's telling us.
We see rising wages and stable inflation. So if wages
(20:09):
are going up and inflation is stable, so wages are
going up faster than the cost of goods, that means
the consumer has more money to spend, which means a
better economy. Now, we can also see because of this,
because of liquidity easy and rising, we can also see
a change in consumer credit lags by about a year,
(20:29):
and so because liquidity has been going up, we can
expect consumer credit to be going up next. And again,
if the consumer gets credit, what do they do They
spend it on things more cars, more vacations, more going
out to eat whatever, more clothes, et cetera. They should
be buying assets. You and I we're buying assets the
consumer though. Okay, so what we want to understand is
(20:50):
that there's a fake chap. The media is incentivized to
get you in fear to get clicks. They're also, unfortunately
in the United States, heavily politicized, and they use the
media politicized as a weapon. So one day one clicks two,
they use it as a weapon. So we don't want
to get trapped in that fake trap. We want to
understand that they weaponized fear and learn how to separate
(21:13):
fact and fiction, fact and opinion. The GDP is a
headline number, it's a lagging indicator, and it's also a
distorted metric. I've explained that to you and why that is.
Fear equals clicks. Clicks equals you stay broke again. I
started making videos in October twenty twenty two, told people's
time to buy. I was putting money back in and
(21:34):
so many people sat on the sidelines. One of my
good friends, he's a big macroeconomic YouTuber. You might know
who I'm talking about. We do a lot of videos together.
We had dinner in August of twenty twenty three after
I made that video called the bear Market is Canceled,
and he told me, Mark, how irresponsible of you to
make that video right now? Don't you know the yield
curve is inverted and blah blah, blah, Yeah, but bigcoin
(21:54):
was like thirty five thousand. Now it's tripled since then.
So how much money you lose on the sideline crippled
in fear because the media is weaponizing these headlines against
you instead of just looking at the data. Now, what
I see, because I study history, I see this mirrors
past moments like two thousand and nine or like twenty twenty.
(22:15):
Those were historic times to be buying and pushing into
the markets, not sitting on the sidelines crippled with fear.
The cost to following the fear narrative is what we
call lost opportunity cost. It's missing this window. That's the cost,
and ultimately you'll miss generational buying opportunities. This only comes
(22:36):
around every fifty years. The fifty year quantum wave cycle
tells us this. So you can sit on the sideline
cripple the fear because of the news headlines, or you
can learn how to read the data and understand this
only comes around in fifty years, Or you can let
me interpret the data for you. Come hang out with
me next week. I'll break down about one hundred charts,
we'll go live. I'll tell you exactly how to apply
(22:56):
this to your own portfolio where I think the very
best investments are, and then we'll hang out out. We'll
do all the live Q and A so you can
figure out exactly how to answer your questions and apply
Drum portfolio. There's a link down below if you want
to come hang out and hang out for free. Hope
to see you there. But otherwise, if you want to
understand this a little bit better, you probably want to
watch this video right here about where eight trillion dollars
is actually gonna go. And I hope to see you
(23:17):
over on that other video
Host
Mark Moss
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