July 3, 2025 • 20 mins
While the media tells you markets are crashing and global trade is unraveling. What if that chaos isn’t a failure—but a master strategy? Not to save the system—but to reset it. And here’s the thing: a reset means, there is a new system coming… and most people will be completely blindsided. But for those of us who see it coming, who understand it and position early—this could be the biggest wealth transfer opportunity in in the last 50 years. I’m Mark Moss, I’ve built and sold multiple companies through 3 boom and bust markets, and I’ve studied every major monetary reset in history— In this video, I’ll show you what’s really happening behind the headlines and what you can do now to stay ahead of it.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
While the media tells you that markets are crashing and
global trade is unraveling. What if I told you that
chaos isn't a failure, but a master strategy, not to
save the system, but to reset it. Now, here's the thing.
A reset means there's a new system coming. Now. Most
people will be completely blindsided by this, but for those
of us who see it coming, who understand it and
(00:22):
position early, this could be the biggest wealth transfer opportunity
in the last fifty years. I'm Mark Moss. I've built
and sold multiple companies through three boom and bus markets.
I've studied every major monetary reset in history, and in
this video, I'm going to show you what's really happening
behind the headlines and what comes next, and what you
can do to stay ahead of it. So let's go
(00:44):
all right, So we're talking about the next reset. Now,
if you know your computer is not working properly, it's
too slow, you can reset it. A video game, you
can reset it. You're basically starting a new game, right,
You're starting a new one. And so on the other
side of the reset is something new, a new system.
I've been talking about this quite a lot because for me,
(01:05):
I think It's amazing that we are alive right now
for when history books were written. You know, I talk
a lot about history, So we talk about nineteen thirteen,
the creation of the Federal Reserve in nineteen forty four,
Brettwoods Agreement, nineteen seventy one, the Nixon Shock, nineteen eighty five,
Plaza Accord, and now we have a new one. Now
this is all around Trump's tariffs, but really what is
he using the tariffs for. I've done a bunch of
(01:27):
videos if you want to go deep on that, I'll
link to them down the show description down below, because
I'm not going to go back through all of that.
But ultimately, the end goal is not tariffs. The end
goal isn't even to bring manufacturing back to the United States.
It's not rebalancing trade. It's about something called the mar
Alago Accords now accords being like the Plaza Accords from
(01:47):
nineteen eighty five, which was a globally coordinated event that
allowed the US to devalue the dollar. Okay, so mar
Alogo Accords. Again, We'll link to the videos that I've
done on all these things down below if you want
to go deeper. So it's really a modern day Plaza accord.
That's really what's happening. Now, What does that mean? Let
me give you the cliff notes of that. Okay, The
(02:08):
Marologo Accord is a blueprint, a plan to recreate the
Plaza Accord that happened in nineteen eighty five. It's an
intervention designed to correct the US trade deficit through deliberate
dollar weakening. Okay, listen to that deliberate dollar weakening. Why
the strong US dollar continues to make American exports less competitive?
(02:31):
How can we balance trade when exports are too competitive,
too expensive? Right, and poses a major obstacle to reshoring
manufacturing and rebalancing trade. So again, the tariffs are a
way to help get the rebalancing trade and help to
re onshore. But the ultimate goal is then to get
that through these mariolog coords, which allow the US to
devalue the currency. Mirran's blueprint will come back to mirror
(02:55):
in a second. Mirran's blueprint for a week dollar policy
attempt to retro actual fit economic theory into Trump's tariff
first agenda. So the tariffs are the first thing we
need to do to trigger the rest of this. We'll
break that down a minute underline fundamentals point to further
dollar weakness again, dollar weakness, dollar weakness, dollar weakness to
make the exports, to make US manufacturing more competitive, an
(03:18):
additional three to five percent, So three to five percent
more weakness than the US dollar. I think it's more
than that. We'll come back to that. If elements of
the Marlago playbook are initiated, they already are further downside
pressure on the dollar could form. It already is. I'm
going to show you just how far the dollar could
go down and what that ultimately means. I'm going to
map it out as prediction, predictions, projections of price. It's
(03:39):
going to be super fun. But back to Miran, So
he wrote this paper before Trump was elected president. This
is a Hudson Bay Capital and it's a user's guide
to restructuring the global trading system. It's a great report.
I recommend you go read it if you want to
dig into the weeds on this. And basically before Trump
even became president, he laid out the entire process and
(04:00):
he coined the term marl logo chords. This is where
it came from. And he just happens to be Trump's
economic advisor today. And we just happened to be doing
the steps that were laid out in this paper. So
if you want to know where things are going, you
just got to read this because this is exactly what's
going on. Well, if we know what's going on and
what the paper says and where things are going, then
(04:21):
what happens next? Don't you want to know? Well stick around,
let's break that down. Okay. So first of all, we
understand that history rhymes cause and effect. If you do
about the same things, you get about the same results. Right,
not always exactly, but about the same. So in nineteen
forty four about it. About eighty years ago, I talked
about these eighty year financial revolution cycles. About eighty years ago,
(04:42):
the world got together and agreed on a new monetary
system nineteen oops, nineteen eighty five, the Plaza Chord, not
the whole world, most of the big country of the
world got together and again agreed to a new global
monetary system that would allow the US dollar to devalue itself.
The parallel to now is sort of the same thing.
(05:02):
US debt is unpayable, the deficits are too big, the
debt in conracers are too big, debt to GDP. It's
unpayable at current rates, so we need to bring that down.
Competitiveness in the United States is collapsing, so Trump wants
to fix that. So this is the plan. We have
to go back and run the same playbook to in
order to fix those things. Okay, now, real quick, I
don't want to rehash a bunch of old data, but
(05:23):
just so you can understand the Plaza Chords as it's
relevant to this video. We can understand that the Plaza
Accord was meant to push down the US dollar. That's
the key mechanism I want you to key onto. That's
what it was intended to do, push down the US dollar.
All parties, the countries that were in the Plaza coord
agreed to directly intervene in currency markets. They were all
(05:43):
going to intervene in their own currency markets to allow
this to happen to correct current account imbalances, trade and
balances sound familiar. Leading up to the Plaza Accord, the
US dollar had appreciated by forty seven point nine percent,
so the US dollars getting way too strong. It was
like a wrecking ball throughout the rest of the world.
That put pressure on the US manufacturing industry because it
(06:05):
made imported goods relatively cheaper. So it was so cheap
to import, but it was way too expensive to export.
Trade and balances were off. The dollar was too strong.
Let's get together, Let's weaken the dollar. Do you understand
the mechanism that we're talking about here? Fast? Fact, after
the Plaza cord happened, the dollar depreciated went down by
as much as twenty five point six nine percent in
(06:26):
two years that followed twenty five percent. Remember that number,
because we're going to come back and project out where
maybe asset prices could go. Okay, it went down twenty
five percent, all right? Now, by before I tell you,
by the dollar being so strong is such a problem.
It's wrecking the economy. Talking about history and rhyming, we
know that about every fifty years, for the last three hundred,
about every fifty years, we have this technological wave called
(06:48):
the quantum wave, and it gives us a once in
a generation buying opportunity for assets if you know exactly
what to buy. I'm going to break that whole process down,
the quantum wave fifty year cycle, how it's a repeatable,
four step process, and how it shows us exactly what
accets to buy through each step. It's about one hundred charts.
We'll through it all live. We're going to hang out.
We'll do live Q and A so you can understand
(07:08):
exactly how to apply what we're teaching to your own portfolio,
so you can take advantage of what's coming. It's all free.
There's a link down below. Come hang out with me.
But let's talk about now why the US dollar getting
strong is wrecking the whole economy. So really, what we're seeing,
just like Plazacord, just like the other interventions, is a
strong dollar crisis. The US dollar got its guns out.
(07:30):
It's way too strong. It's overvalued, which again same thing
as before, makes it too cheap and easy to import
and too hard and expensive to export. The US dollars overvalued. Now,
what we can see if we look at the Dixie
the Dollar Index, where it measures the US dollar against
a basket of other currencies, we're right around here, around
one hundred. Now, that's right here, and it's nowhere near
(07:54):
as high as we were in nineteen eighty five at
the Plaza Cord. So a lot of people like, no,
there's no way that this is going to happen. The
dollars not as strong as it was during the Plausa chords.
I think that's taken the wrong view. I'm gonna show
you another charge. But let's just say that maybe this
might be sort of more or maybe maybe ninety maybe nineties,
like a historic range that we're in. Maybe eighty eight
(08:16):
eighty ninety that might be a more historic range. So
maybe we're a little overheated, assuming that they take out
this outlier, So that'd bring us down from one hundred
down to ninety a ten percent drop, maybe down to
eighty five or fifteen percent drop. Okay, remember those numbers.
We're gonna come back to that. But the reason why
that chart is a little bit off is because it
doesn't take into account other things like purchasing power, parody,
(08:41):
other things like that. So here here's a chart from
the BIS, the Bureau of International Settlements. This is the
US dollar real effective the real effective exchange rate, So
this is like inflation adjusted. A small business owner, are
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(09:46):
And when we look at it like this, what we
can see going back to nineteen sixty six, here's nineteen
eighty five Plaza cords. We're all the way back up here.
Now we're not at the peak, we're not the peak
of the Plaza cords, but we're pretty dang high. All right.
This is the adjusted dollar amount per the BIS. So again,
this dotted line right here is more of the mean.
And what happens is when you go too far below,
(10:08):
you snap back above. When you go too high, you
snap back even further. And so we're due for correction
to the mean somewhere around here, somewhere from one ten
to ninety five twenty percent, sort of like the Plaza
Cord saw twenty five percent. So we're due for some
sort of a snap back back to here. This's what
Trump wants to do. Of giving you all the reasons
(10:30):
why that is a mean reversion, just getting is back
to the mean the historical standard. Now, typically mean reversion
would actually go too far, but just getting back to
that historical standard is about a twenty to thirty percent drop. Okay,
So now we understand that we understand the setup, we
understand the data, but do we understand the mechanism. So
the dollar versus global m to the global monetary supply,
(10:51):
we have to understand that there's an inverse correlation. When
the dollar gets weaker, the monetary system expands. That's why
asset prices go up. When the dollar gets stronger, currency
goes down. Asset prices go down. Dollar down equals global
money supply up. Deem dollarization. As nations are gooding away
(11:12):
from the dollar, putting more into gold, for example, that
only accelerates this process. Now, the problem for some people
who are not paying attention to this it's the problem
because inflation risks start taking off, the dollar gets weaker,
the money supply expands, asset prices start going higher, and
inflation starts rising. So people aren't prepared. They get wiped out.
(11:32):
The poor get poor unfortunately, but so do asset prices.
So for those of us that are investors and we
understand this, we can make way more money than we're
losing to inflation. That's our opportunity if we catch this.
This is the tide that lifts some boats. Not all
boats are gonna go up. Which boats are gonna go up,
Some go up faster than others. Let's model that out. Okay,
(11:53):
So when we think about asset prices are rising, so
as liquidity rises, as the water rushes in, so to speak,
the liquidity comes in. Asset prices go up like boats. However,
they don't all move at the the same speed. So
a smaller, lighter boat is going to move faster than
a big, heavy boat, for example. And so we understand
already I broke down. There's an inverse correlation to the dollar.
(12:13):
The dollar gets weaker, asset prices are going to go up.
But as I said, some assets are more sensitive to
liquidy coming in, some boats move faster. Here's a chart
that sort of breaks us down for us. So here
we go chart from bitwise. Here. The green lines here
are since twenty ten. We have the dark gray line
(12:33):
since twenty seventeen, and this blue line is since twenty twenty.
They're all about the same. We have Bitcoin right here,
and you can see it's moved up the fastest. It's
the fastest boat. Now you can see since twenty twenty,
it's been a faster rising boat. It's more sensitive liquidity
than it was in twenty seventeen or it was in
twenty ten. But in all these areas it was much faster,
(12:55):
a much faster boat than the s and P five hundred,
a much faster boat than the MSCI just a big basket,
and even much faster than gold. So these are all
the different assets, SMP five hundred, gold, Bitcoin, and this
shows the sensitivities or how fast they move as liquidy
rushes in. So if you want to run from a
rushing tide the tsunami is coming on shore, you want
to get into the fastest boat possible, and bitcoin shows
(13:17):
us that. Now we can also see, as I said,
like this is inversely correlated. So here's a chart of
the dollar index and the global wannetary supply inverted. So
we can see is the global monetary supply is inversely
correlated with the changes in the dollars. So what we
can see here the green is the dollar index and
the black line is the global money supply. So when
(13:37):
the dollar index goes down, this goes up. Right when
this goes down, this goes up. So we can overlay
the charts to understand where these are coming. So let
me show you what this looks like, all right, so
we can see when we overlay now the global money
supply with asset prices. So this is the global on
to supply in green with the bitcoin price in black,
(14:00):
and it's adjusted for a three month lag. If you
watch my videos regularly, you understand I talk about the
global equidy all the time and how there's about a
three month lag. I'll put a link to a video
down below that sort of breaks that down in more detail. Now,
what we can see a just a four to three
month lag is that these move almost in lock step.
What we can see is that here the global money
supply has taken off. Bitcoin is just trying to start
(14:24):
catching up, but it hasn't all the way. So looking
at these charts, where do you think it goes next? Well,
I think it seems pretty obvious. Now. Another factor is
that what we can see when we map out the
global money supply moves the Dollar index strength compared to
an asset that's very sensitive to liquidity like bitcoin. What
we can see is a chart like this that when
(14:46):
Bitcoin moves and it's let's let's break it down to
eighty twenty. When it's the top twenty percent strongest move
in the dollar index with the bottom twenty move on
the dollar index, Bitcoin has its strongest moves and so
but if the US dollar gets very very weak, very quickly,
Bitcoin moves even faster. If the US dollar gets very strong,
(15:06):
very quickly, then Bitcoin draws down even faster. But what's
the policy of the marlogo chords to weaken it? How much?
Well it should revert to the mean, which could be
twenty or thirty percent. How much did it happened last time?
Twenty five percent. That's an extremely fast move, which means
we might expect bitcoin to move extremely fast in the
(15:28):
other direction. If that makes sense. Okay, Now let's try
to model that out a little bit now that we've
sort of built that house of cards, if we model move,
so if the US dollar is overvalued by twenty to
thirty percent, and again this is a chart from the BIS,
the Bank of International Settlements. They're the central bank of
all central banks. So if it could revert to the
mean right here again, it'll probably snap past and come back.
(15:51):
But if it just comes back to the mean, we're
looking at a twenty to thirty percent drop. It went
down twenty five percent in the coordinated fashion after the Marrologocords.
Maybe it goes down ten or fifteen percent. We don't know.
But what we do know from mapping these things out
is that for every ten point drop in the dollar index,
we get a two to four x in bitcoin. There's
(16:13):
a range. Typically bitcoin we move two to four times
for every ten percent drop. Okay, so if we put
this math together, Bitcoin's sitting at about one hundred thousand
right now, ninety three, ninety five, ninety seven, somewhere in
that range, call it one hundred thousand, And let's say
we get a twenty percent decline in the dollar index.
Then we multiply that times a four or eight times
move well, y four eight because we get two to
(16:36):
four for every ten, so ten would be twenty so
a four eight times move. So that would mean I'm
not real good at math. That's why I use general numbers.
One hundred thousand times four equals four hundred k. One
hundred thousand times eight equals eight hundred thousand K. So
if we see liquidity the dollar index devalued by twenty
(16:59):
percent like has been history, like would be the reversion
to the mean. This could be a potential catalyst that
we could see bitcoin move up to this level. Then
we can add in other things on top of that,
for example, massive ETF flows coming into bitcoin, having cycles
come into play, sovereign adoption like the United States strategic
Bitcoin reserve, other nations doing their own bitcoin reserve. So
(17:21):
then we start to add other things that even compound
onto this, and then all of a sudden start to
realize which one is the fastest vote. Now, this is
again another chart here from the BIS, again the Bank
of the National Settlements, and what they're doing here is
predicting the US dollar performance over the next five years.
And do you see this line going down? This is
(17:45):
what the BIS is planning for. This is what the
policy of the Trump administration is, and this is most
likely where the world is going. Okay, so where are
we at. We understand that we're going through a monetary reset.
It's not that uncommon. This is what presidents do. Several
presidents have done this in the past. Nineteen thirteen, nineteen
(18:07):
forty four, nineteen seventy one, nineteen eighty five, and here
we are twenty twenty five. That's happening again. We're living
through history of monetary reset. The reset happens and we
get something new. There's one thing they have in common.
There's a new system. Those of them who those of
you who don't see that new system and move, then
(18:28):
you get left behind those who do see the changes
and move to get in front of that, to front
run that benefit the most. It's not a crash, it's
a transition into a new system. Now. The tariffs that
we see all over the news are leverage. It's not
about good, it's not about manufacturing. It's leveraged to devalue
the dollar for the entire monetary system. The Maralogo chords
(18:50):
that you hear about ultimately is about bringing the dollar down,
just like we saw in the Paris accords, and that's
not a bug. People think the dollar's strength has to
be its feet. It's not. Bring it down is not
a bug. It's the plan. It is the feature to
bring the dollar down through these negotiations. And in that
we understand that as the dollar goes down, global equity
goes up. We want to move into assets, and different
(19:12):
assets float at different rates, and bitcoin moves the fastest.
It's not just a hedge anymore. It is what we
call the global life raft. Now we also understand that
in context of these fifty year quantum wave cycles, and
this would also tell us that the only place to
invest right now is right here, which is the convergence
of bitcoin and AI. Of course, just don't wonder that's
(19:33):
where all the money is going. That's why I study
these cycles in great detail. There's four distinct phases that
you want to invest through in this cycle. If you
want us to break all that down so you can
understand what the blueprint is so you can invest along,
come hang up with me live next week. We'll break
it all down and go through all the charts, all
the graphs. We'll do a live Q and A so
you can understand how to apply it to your own portfolio.
(19:54):
But if you really want to understand more about the
morroologal cording where those going, you probably want to watch
this whole video right here, where I break it down
in more detail, and I hope to see you over there.
While the media tells you that markets are crashing and
global trade is unraveling. What if I told you that
chaos isn't a failure, but a master strategy, not to
save the system, but to reset it. Now, here's the thing.
A reset means there's a new system coming. Now. Most
people will be completely blindsided by this, but for those
of us who see it coming, who understand it and
(00:22):
position early, this could be the biggest wealth transfer opportunity
in the last fifty years. I'm Mark Moss. I've built
and sold multiple companies through three boom and bus markets.
I've studied every major monetary reset in history, and in
this video, I'm going to show you what's really happening
behind the headlines and what comes next, and what you
can do to stay ahead of it. So let's go
(00:44):
all right, So we're talking about the next reset. Now,
if you know your computer is not working properly, it's
too slow, you can reset it. A video game, you
can reset it. You're basically starting a new game, right,
You're starting a new one. And so on the other
side of the reset is something new, a new system.
I've been talking about this quite a lot because for me,
(01:05):
I think It's amazing that we are alive right now
for when history books were written. You know, I talk
a lot about history, So we talk about nineteen thirteen,
the creation of the Federal Reserve in nineteen forty four,
Brettwoods Agreement, nineteen seventy one, the Nixon Shock, nineteen eighty five,
Plaza Accord, and now we have a new one. Now
this is all around Trump's tariffs, but really what is
he using the tariffs for. I've done a bunch of
(01:27):
videos if you want to go deep on that, I'll
link to them down the show description down below, because
I'm not going to go back through all of that.
But ultimately, the end goal is not tariffs. The end
goal isn't even to bring manufacturing back to the United States.
It's not rebalancing trade. It's about something called the mar
Alago Accords now accords being like the Plaza Accords from
(01:47):
nineteen eighty five, which was a globally coordinated event that
allowed the US to devalue the dollar. Okay, so mar
Alogo Accords. Again, We'll link to the videos that I've
done on all these things down below if you want
to go deeper. So it's really a modern day Plaza accord.
That's really what's happening. Now, What does that mean? Let
me give you the cliff notes of that. Okay, The
(02:08):
Marologo Accord is a blueprint, a plan to recreate the
Plaza Accord that happened in nineteen eighty five. It's an
intervention designed to correct the US trade deficit through deliberate
dollar weakening. Okay, listen to that deliberate dollar weakening. Why
the strong US dollar continues to make American exports less competitive?
(02:31):
How can we balance trade when exports are too competitive,
too expensive? Right, and poses a major obstacle to reshoring
manufacturing and rebalancing trade. So again, the tariffs are a
way to help get the rebalancing trade and help to
re onshore. But the ultimate goal is then to get
that through these mariolog coords, which allow the US to
devalue the currency. Mirran's blueprint will come back to mirror
(02:55):
in a second. Mirran's blueprint for a week dollar policy
attempt to retro actual fit economic theory into Trump's tariff
first agenda. So the tariffs are the first thing we
need to do to trigger the rest of this. We'll
break that down a minute underline fundamentals point to further
dollar weakness again, dollar weakness, dollar weakness, dollar weakness to
make the exports, to make US manufacturing more competitive, an
(03:18):
additional three to five percent, So three to five percent
more weakness than the US dollar. I think it's more
than that. We'll come back to that. If elements of
the Marlago playbook are initiated, they already are further downside
pressure on the dollar could form. It already is. I'm
going to show you just how far the dollar could
go down and what that ultimately means. I'm going to
map it out as prediction, predictions, projections of price. It's
(03:39):
going to be super fun. But back to Miran, So
he wrote this paper before Trump was elected president. This
is a Hudson Bay Capital and it's a user's guide
to restructuring the global trading system. It's a great report.
I recommend you go read it if you want to
dig into the weeds on this. And basically before Trump
even became president, he laid out the entire process and
(04:00):
he coined the term marl logo chords. This is where
it came from. And he just happens to be Trump's
economic advisor today. And we just happened to be doing
the steps that were laid out in this paper. So
if you want to know where things are going, you
just got to read this because this is exactly what's
going on. Well, if we know what's going on and
what the paper says and where things are going, then
(04:21):
what happens next? Don't you want to know? Well stick around,
let's break that down. Okay. So first of all, we
understand that history rhymes cause and effect. If you do
about the same things, you get about the same results. Right,
not always exactly, but about the same. So in nineteen
forty four about it. About eighty years ago, I talked
about these eighty year financial revolution cycles. About eighty years ago,
(04:42):
the world got together and agreed on a new monetary
system nineteen oops, nineteen eighty five, the Plaza Chord, not
the whole world, most of the big country of the
world got together and again agreed to a new global
monetary system that would allow the US dollar to devalue itself.
The parallel to now is sort of the same thing.
(05:02):
US debt is unpayable, the deficits are too big, the
debt in conracers are too big, debt to GDP. It's
unpayable at current rates, so we need to bring that down.
Competitiveness in the United States is collapsing, so Trump wants
to fix that. So this is the plan. We have
to go back and run the same playbook to in
order to fix those things. Okay, now, real quick, I
don't want to rehash a bunch of old data, but
(05:23):
just so you can understand the Plaza Chords as it's
relevant to this video. We can understand that the Plaza
Accord was meant to push down the US dollar. That's
the key mechanism I want you to key onto. That's
what it was intended to do, push down the US dollar.
All parties, the countries that were in the Plaza coord
agreed to directly intervene in currency markets. They were all
(05:43):
going to intervene in their own currency markets to allow
this to happen to correct current account imbalances, trade and
balances sound familiar. Leading up to the Plaza Accord, the
US dollar had appreciated by forty seven point nine percent,
so the US dollars getting way too strong. It was
like a wrecking ball throughout the rest of the world.
That put pressure on the US manufacturing industry because it
(06:05):
made imported goods relatively cheaper. So it was so cheap
to import, but it was way too expensive to export.
Trade and balances were off. The dollar was too strong.
Let's get together, Let's weaken the dollar. Do you understand
the mechanism that we're talking about here? Fast? Fact, after
the Plaza cord happened, the dollar depreciated went down by
as much as twenty five point six nine percent in
(06:26):
two years that followed twenty five percent. Remember that number,
because we're going to come back and project out where
maybe asset prices could go. Okay, it went down twenty
five percent, all right? Now, by before I tell you,
by the dollar being so strong is such a problem.
It's wrecking the economy. Talking about history and rhyming, we
know that about every fifty years, for the last three hundred,
about every fifty years, we have this technological wave called
(06:48):
the quantum wave, and it gives us a once in
a generation buying opportunity for assets if you know exactly
what to buy. I'm going to break that whole process down,
the quantum wave fifty year cycle, how it's a repeatable,
four step process, and how it shows us exactly what
accets to buy through each step. It's about one hundred charts.
We'll through it all live. We're going to hang out.
We'll do live Q and A so you can understand
(07:08):
exactly how to apply what we're teaching to your own portfolio,
so you can take advantage of what's coming. It's all free.
There's a link down below. Come hang out with me.
But let's talk about now why the US dollar getting
strong is wrecking the whole economy. So really, what we're seeing,
just like Plazacord, just like the other interventions, is a
strong dollar crisis. The US dollar got its guns out.
(07:30):
It's way too strong. It's overvalued, which again same thing
as before, makes it too cheap and easy to import
and too hard and expensive to export. The US dollars overvalued. Now,
what we can see if we look at the Dixie
the Dollar Index, where it measures the US dollar against
a basket of other currencies, we're right around here, around
one hundred. Now, that's right here, and it's nowhere near
(07:54):
as high as we were in nineteen eighty five at
the Plaza Cord. So a lot of people like, no,
there's no way that this is going to happen. The
dollars not as strong as it was during the Plausa chords.
I think that's taken the wrong view. I'm gonna show
you another charge. But let's just say that maybe this
might be sort of more or maybe maybe ninety maybe nineties,
like a historic range that we're in. Maybe eighty eight
(08:16):
eighty ninety that might be a more historic range. So
maybe we're a little overheated, assuming that they take out
this outlier, So that'd bring us down from one hundred
down to ninety a ten percent drop, maybe down to
eighty five or fifteen percent drop. Okay, remember those numbers.
We're gonna come back to that. But the reason why
that chart is a little bit off is because it
doesn't take into account other things like purchasing power, parody,
(08:41):
other things like that. So here here's a chart from
the BIS, the Bureau of International Settlements. This is the
US dollar real effective the real effective exchange rate, So
this is like inflation adjusted. A small business owner, are
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(09:46):
And when we look at it like this, what we
can see going back to nineteen sixty six, here's nineteen
eighty five Plaza cords. We're all the way back up here.
Now we're not at the peak, we're not the peak
of the Plaza cords, but we're pretty dang high. All right.
This is the adjusted dollar amount per the BIS. So again,
this dotted line right here is more of the mean.
And what happens is when you go too far below,
(10:08):
you snap back above. When you go too high, you
snap back even further. And so we're due for correction
to the mean somewhere around here, somewhere from one ten
to ninety five twenty percent, sort of like the Plaza
Cord saw twenty five percent. So we're due for some
sort of a snap back back to here. This's what
Trump wants to do. Of giving you all the reasons
(10:30):
why that is a mean reversion, just getting is back
to the mean the historical standard. Now, typically mean reversion
would actually go too far, but just getting back to
that historical standard is about a twenty to thirty percent drop. Okay,
So now we understand that we understand the setup, we
understand the data, but do we understand the mechanism. So
the dollar versus global m to the global monetary supply,
(10:51):
we have to understand that there's an inverse correlation. When
the dollar gets weaker, the monetary system expands. That's why
asset prices go up. When the dollar gets stronger, currency
goes down. Asset prices go down. Dollar down equals global
money supply up. Deem dollarization. As nations are gooding away
(11:12):
from the dollar, putting more into gold, for example, that
only accelerates this process. Now, the problem for some people
who are not paying attention to this it's the problem
because inflation risks start taking off, the dollar gets weaker,
the money supply expands, asset prices start going higher, and
inflation starts rising. So people aren't prepared. They get wiped out.
(11:32):
The poor get poor unfortunately, but so do asset prices.
So for those of us that are investors and we
understand this, we can make way more money than we're
losing to inflation. That's our opportunity if we catch this.
This is the tide that lifts some boats. Not all
boats are gonna go up. Which boats are gonna go up,
Some go up faster than others. Let's model that out. Okay,
(11:53):
So when we think about asset prices are rising, so
as liquidity rises, as the water rushes in, so to speak,
the liquidity comes in. Asset prices go up like boats. However,
they don't all move at the the same speed. So
a smaller, lighter boat is going to move faster than
a big, heavy boat, for example. And so we understand
already I broke down. There's an inverse correlation to the dollar.
(12:13):
The dollar gets weaker, asset prices are going to go up.
But as I said, some assets are more sensitive to
liquidy coming in, some boats move faster. Here's a chart
that sort of breaks us down for us. So here
we go chart from bitwise. Here. The green lines here
are since twenty ten. We have the dark gray line
(12:33):
since twenty seventeen, and this blue line is since twenty twenty.
They're all about the same. We have Bitcoin right here,
and you can see it's moved up the fastest. It's
the fastest boat. Now you can see since twenty twenty,
it's been a faster rising boat. It's more sensitive liquidity
than it was in twenty seventeen or it was in
twenty ten. But in all these areas it was much faster,
(12:55):
a much faster boat than the s and P five hundred,
a much faster boat than the MSCI just a big basket,
and even much faster than gold. So these are all
the different assets, SMP five hundred, gold, Bitcoin, and this
shows the sensitivities or how fast they move as liquidy
rushes in. So if you want to run from a
rushing tide the tsunami is coming on shore, you want
to get into the fastest boat possible, and bitcoin shows
(13:17):
us that. Now we can also see, as I said,
like this is inversely correlated. So here's a chart of
the dollar index and the global wannetary supply inverted. So
we can see is the global monetary supply is inversely
correlated with the changes in the dollars. So what we
can see here the green is the dollar index and
the black line is the global money supply. So when
(13:37):
the dollar index goes down, this goes up. Right when
this goes down, this goes up. So we can overlay
the charts to understand where these are coming. So let
me show you what this looks like, all right, so
we can see when we overlay now the global money
supply with asset prices. So this is the global on
to supply in green with the bitcoin price in black,
(14:00):
and it's adjusted for a three month lag. If you
watch my videos regularly, you understand I talk about the
global equidy all the time and how there's about a
three month lag. I'll put a link to a video
down below that sort of breaks that down in more detail. Now,
what we can see a just a four to three
month lag is that these move almost in lock step.
What we can see is that here the global money
supply has taken off. Bitcoin is just trying to start
(14:24):
catching up, but it hasn't all the way. So looking
at these charts, where do you think it goes next? Well,
I think it seems pretty obvious. Now. Another factor is
that what we can see when we map out the
global money supply moves the Dollar index strength compared to
an asset that's very sensitive to liquidity like bitcoin. What
we can see is a chart like this that when
(14:46):
Bitcoin moves and it's let's let's break it down to
eighty twenty. When it's the top twenty percent strongest move
in the dollar index with the bottom twenty move on
the dollar index, Bitcoin has its strongest moves and so
but if the US dollar gets very very weak, very quickly,
Bitcoin moves even faster. If the US dollar gets very strong,
(15:06):
very quickly, then Bitcoin draws down even faster. But what's
the policy of the marlogo chords to weaken it? How much?
Well it should revert to the mean, which could be
twenty or thirty percent. How much did it happened last time?
Twenty five percent. That's an extremely fast move, which means
we might expect bitcoin to move extremely fast in the
(15:28):
other direction. If that makes sense. Okay, Now let's try
to model that out a little bit now that we've
sort of built that house of cards, if we model move,
so if the US dollar is overvalued by twenty to
thirty percent, and again this is a chart from the BIS,
the Bank of International Settlements. They're the central bank of
all central banks. So if it could revert to the
mean right here again, it'll probably snap past and come back.
(15:51):
But if it just comes back to the mean, we're
looking at a twenty to thirty percent drop. It went
down twenty five percent in the coordinated fashion after the Marrologocords.
Maybe it goes down ten or fifteen percent. We don't know.
But what we do know from mapping these things out
is that for every ten point drop in the dollar index,
we get a two to four x in bitcoin. There's
(16:13):
a range. Typically bitcoin we move two to four times
for every ten percent drop. Okay, so if we put
this math together, Bitcoin's sitting at about one hundred thousand
right now, ninety three, ninety five, ninety seven, somewhere in
that range, call it one hundred thousand, And let's say
we get a twenty percent decline in the dollar index.
Then we multiply that times a four or eight times
move well, y four eight because we get two to
(16:36):
four for every ten, so ten would be twenty so
a four eight times move. So that would mean I'm
not real good at math. That's why I use general numbers.
One hundred thousand times four equals four hundred k. One
hundred thousand times eight equals eight hundred thousand K. So
if we see liquidity the dollar index devalued by twenty
(16:59):
percent like has been history, like would be the reversion
to the mean. This could be a potential catalyst that
we could see bitcoin move up to this level. Then
we can add in other things on top of that,
for example, massive ETF flows coming into bitcoin, having cycles
come into play, sovereign adoption like the United States strategic
Bitcoin reserve, other nations doing their own bitcoin reserve. So
(17:21):
then we start to add other things that even compound
onto this, and then all of a sudden start to
realize which one is the fastest vote. Now, this is
again another chart here from the BIS, again the Bank
of the National Settlements, and what they're doing here is
predicting the US dollar performance over the next five years.
And do you see this line going down? This is
(17:45):
what the BIS is planning for. This is what the
policy of the Trump administration is, and this is most
likely where the world is going. Okay, so where are
we at. We understand that we're going through a monetary reset.
It's not that uncommon. This is what presidents do. Several
presidents have done this in the past. Nineteen thirteen, nineteen
(18:07):
forty four, nineteen seventy one, nineteen eighty five, and here
we are twenty twenty five. That's happening again. We're living
through history of monetary reset. The reset happens and we
get something new. There's one thing they have in common.
There's a new system. Those of them who those of
you who don't see that new system and move, then
(18:28):
you get left behind those who do see the changes
and move to get in front of that, to front
run that benefit the most. It's not a crash, it's
a transition into a new system. Now. The tariffs that
we see all over the news are leverage. It's not
about good, it's not about manufacturing. It's leveraged to devalue
the dollar for the entire monetary system. The Maralogo chords
(18:50):
that you hear about ultimately is about bringing the dollar down,
just like we saw in the Paris accords, and that's
not a bug. People think the dollar's strength has to
be its feet. It's not. Bring it down is not
a bug. It's the plan. It is the feature to
bring the dollar down through these negotiations. And in that
we understand that as the dollar goes down, global equity
goes up. We want to move into assets, and different
(19:12):
assets float at different rates, and bitcoin moves the fastest.
It's not just a hedge anymore. It is what we
call the global life raft. Now we also understand that
in context of these fifty year quantum wave cycles, and
this would also tell us that the only place to
invest right now is right here, which is the convergence
of bitcoin and AI. Of course, just don't wonder that's
(19:33):
where all the money is going. That's why I study
these cycles in great detail. There's four distinct phases that
you want to invest through in this cycle. If you
want us to break all that down so you can
understand what the blueprint is so you can invest along,
come hang up with me live next week. We'll break
it all down and go through all the charts, all
the graphs. We'll do a live Q and A so
you can understand how to apply it to your own portfolio.
(19:54):
But if you really want to understand more about the
morroologal cording where those going, you probably want to watch
this whole video right here, where I break it down
in more detail, and I hope to see you over there.
Host
Mark Moss
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