Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We're rebuilding America like it's nineteen forty two all over again,
but we're missing one critical piece. Nineteen forty two launched
the greatest industrial boom in US history, millions of jobs,
factories overnight, and an economic explosion that changed the world.
And now it's happening again. But this time we've overlooked
(00:21):
something so vital it could derail the entire boom before
it even starts. Now, this isn't just a macro trend.
This will impact your job, your money, and your freedom
in ways most people don't even see coming. Now. Spend
fifteen plus years decoding the patterns behind every major boom
and bust. This one is different. If you want to lead,
(00:42):
not get left behind, make sure you watch until the end.
All right, let's go all right, We're going to talk
about one of the biggest shifts to the global economy
that we've seen since about eighty years ago. You know,
I talk a lot about cycles. I talk a lot
about history. Specifically, I talk about these eighty year cycles.
And let's go back about eighty years and look in
(01:02):
history to the great rebuild. Right, we have to understand
history because cause and effect. If you do about the
same things, you get about the same results. And that's
what we're looking at right now. Nineteen forty two, we're
talking about the end of World War One, the end
of World War two, and we had this great wartime
mobilization where the entire economy got behind a single objective,
(01:23):
an imperative, an urgent imperative to move forward, to industrialize,
to build. That's exactly what happened nineteen forty two. We
had the wartime mobilization, and from nineteen forty to nineteen
forty four, a four year period, we saw GDP go
up by an amazing seventy six percent. Now, that is
absolutely amazing, right, typically we see single digit percentage of
(01:45):
GDP growth in his ENGLID year. We're talking seventy six
percent in just a four year period. Now, during that time,
it wasn't just that GDP went up, which is a
lot obviously, but average productivity labor went up by twenty
five percent. What does that mean? That means the average
worker got twenty five percent more productive. I bring this
(02:06):
up and I emphasize this point for some reason because
as we're thinking about reindustrializing the economy right now, bringing
manufacturing jobs back, the American worker can't compete on an
hourly basis with workers in Asia, for example. So the
worker in the US must get more productive, right, So
the US worker needs to get four hours work done
(02:28):
in one hour, for example. And that's what we saw
happen last time, with a twenty five percent increase in productivity.
And of course that was because of mass production automation machines.
We saw unemployment fall all the way down to one
point two percent. That means everybody was working, every able
(02:48):
bodied person was there working. And what I believe we're
going into is setting up this same thing. We're about
to see the biggest build out in the United States
since World War Two, the greatest coordinated push, all hands
on deck. The imperative a four year imperative to make
this happen again. But there's one thing, there's a couple
(03:08):
things actually that nobody seems to be talking about that
we need for all of this to work. Problems solutions, investors,
that's what we're looking for. Okay, Now, let's understand the
mechanics of the boom. How do these booms even take place? Well,
sort of like in nineteen forty four, we saw all
this manufacturing startup. Right, we had to create all this manufacturing,
(03:31):
all this automation, right, and right now we have reshoring
that's happening. Now I'm going back to twenty twenty three
because this is pre Trump, right, We're looking at big trends,
We're looking at macro trends. This is pre Trump. So
if you have Trump dot management syndrome, this is not political.
So twenty twenty three, already we are on the path
of this. Biden already started this reshoring, near shoring so
(03:54):
to speak. Actually, Trump maybe even started in his first
term with putting tariffs on China. Within the pandemic came
and put the whole world on notice that, shoot, we
better bring some of our strategic manufacturing back to the US.
And so through the Biden administration, they started with this
on shoring, reshoring, Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Act, all
of these things. So in twenty twenty three, we saw
(04:15):
two hundred and eighty seven thousand manufacturing jobs come back,
two hundred and seven that's a big number of again manufacturing.
So the manufacturing push is already underway. These are big trends.
We saw manufacturing investments go up by seventy percent, year
over year back in twenty twenty three, So this has
already been happening. We've been seeing AI ready data centers explode.
(04:39):
As a matter of fact, they're expected to grow by
thirty three percent over the next several years through twenty thirty.
So we're already been seeing this US government policies to
accelerate defense precurment. Right, so we realized, oh, shoot, we
need lots of things in the US, for example, our
high tech chips, also things like rare earth elements, essential minerals, copper, aluminum,
(05:01):
things like that, and so the US government set policies
to get those things. We saw Infrastructure Investment and Jobs
Act allocate five hundred and fifty billion dollars just for that.
Like this is already underway. Now this has become a
major push now into the new Trump administration with reshoring AI,
(05:22):
all our technology, all the Department of Defense stuff, making
sure our national security is up to part, all the
energy things Trump's drill, baby drill, bring all the energy
back to the US. And then of course all the
essential minerals that we need to build all these things.
The minerals are the building blocks. If we don't have
the building blocks, we can't build if we don't have
copper and aluminum and steel, if we don't have rare
(05:43):
earth elements, we can't build these things. Now, the push
that we have now with the tariffs that Trump has
put on to make the US more competitive, to bring
back a lot of this manufacturing. We've already seen eight
trillion dollars committed in twenty twenty five in quarter one.
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that's justworks dot com, slash podcasts. Eight trillion. I'm going
to repeat that eight trillion dollars committed in quarter one.
So this started in twenty twenty three. We saw investments
coming back already in twenty twenty three, we've seen the
US already start allocating to this, but now we've taken
it to a whole nother level. This is a four
(07:08):
year plan to industrialize the economy like we've seen before. Now,
if we take a look at this, we can see
in some charts here, this is the total manufacturing construction spending,
and this is going back to two thousand and nine,
and you can see that construction spending had stayed sort
of somewhat flat since the great financial crash back here
(07:29):
in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine. But
you can see right here in twenty twenty three we're
talking about how it absolutely exploded. And of course this
doesn't include quarter one of twenty twenty five that we're
already in. Now, I also want to show you this
chart right here, which is you can already see the
global demand for data center capacity and how it's tripling
by twenty thirty, expected to go up about thirty percent
(07:51):
compounded annual growth rate. And again that was before the
eight trillion dollars that was just committed this first quarter
of this year for the Trump administration, this renewed push
to reindustrialize the economy like we saw in nineteen forty four. Okay,
now we want to understand some bottlenecks. As investors, we're
(08:12):
looking for storms, we're looking for problems, and then we're
looking for solutions to those problems. And what we're typically
looking for is what I call the mismatch multiplier. Where
are things offsides? That's where we want to look at.
So we understand that in order to do this this
number one imperative that started again pre Trump and Trump
is reinforcing doubling down, there are massive bottlenecks in this. Right,
(08:35):
we can't forget the inputs. You want the output you
want the building, Well, what are the inputs that go
into that? And that is the raw materials. Now, the
US has outsourced most of this, the metals, the minerals,
all the processing because it's not environmentally safe, it's dirty,
and the US doesn't really want anyone to do it here,
so they don't give permits and things like that, as
(08:57):
a matter of fact, because of that, because the US
doesn't really want to hear because they make it so difficult.
Minds typically take anywhere from ten to twenty years to
bring online. So right now it's like, hey, we need
these minerals or earth elements, copper, et cetera. Like let's
go get it. Okay, get back to me in twenty years, bro,
Like that's not going to work. We need it right now. Now.
(09:18):
Tariffs may push prices up before supply can catch up.
That's the problem. But what we can see is that
there is a big demand to unleasht As a matter
of fact, here's a tweet from Donald Trump and he says,
like our steel and our aluminum industries, our great American
copper industry has been decimated by global actors. So our
(09:39):
minerals are steel, our aluminum, our copper decimated. To build
back our copper industry, we want to build back the
copper industry. I've requested my Secretary of Commerce to study
copper imports and to end unfair trade. So that's the
terriffs that we're putting into place and build back our
American copper industry. Why, because we can't build ai data
centers without it. We can't build ev charging stations without it.
(10:01):
We can't build all these new factories and manufacturing centers
with automation without it. Without these inputs, specifically, as he
says here copper, we just can't do it. We need
other things as well. Where earth elements, there was just
a deal signed with Ukraine to get the wrarewth elements
from there. We also the United States is already the
second largest producer of earth elements in the world. We
just don't produce enough for our own needs. We can
(10:21):
turn that back up as well. So right now we
can see we're in a massive metal bottleneck, but no
one seems to be pricing it in. That is what
we're looking at. There's a bottleneck no one's pricing in.
So what happens elementary one oh one supply and demand, more,
demand goes up, supply stays constrained. What happens to the price.
(10:42):
All right, So let's think through some of the consequences
of this. We understand we're reindestrillizing the entire US economy.
We have over twenty two percent of GDP committed just
in one ear. Imagine the growth. Imagine one from single
digit growth to five six ten percent GDP growth. Those
numbers are unheard of. But with all good intentions and
(11:04):
all big plans, which I think are realistic, it doesn't
mean it's a smooth road. There's lots of bumps and
problems that can happen along the way. What we call
you know, volatility, and that is our opportunity. So we
think through the consequences of the dangers. Obviously, we could
have all types of delayed projects because lack of materials,
which could lead to massive inflation. If if we don't
(11:25):
get enough materials, the prices start getting bid up, causes
price to come up. We talk about inflation rising potential
job losses there because people are being committed to work
on these jobs. If they can't get the supplies they need,
then they have to start laying people off. We don't
want that to happen. We want jobs to go up
and we want inflation to stay down, so we need
to bring more product to market. Also, this leads to
missed opportunities for economic growth. So the Trump administration obviously
(11:48):
wants to get the GDP growing. We just posted a
GDP loss, a quarter loss, but if you look through
the data, it's because of this one time tear sugar
rush I call it that we had where we imported
a bunch of goods forty percent increase in imported goods
to sort of offset this tariff, and the GDP counts
that as a negative. Anyway, if you want a video
(12:10):
on that and what the GDP numbers really are so
you can make better decisions, let me know in the
comments down below. We can make that video. But the
opportunities are for us. We want to think about the
optimistic side of this is that there's demand for critical minerals, massive,
massive demand, significant opportunities here because the US needs these.
I just showed you Trump saying steel, aluminum, copper, raref elements.
(12:32):
We need them in the US. We can't depend on
supply chains. They need to be here, and they need
to be here right now. As a matter of fact,
Trump already put several executive orders into place to fast
track permitting to get these up and running, working through
with all fifty states. Any project over a billion dollars
is getting basically green lit to go forward. Other opportunities.
(12:52):
I think about bitcoin and minerals together, both are scarce assets,
and that's one of the reasons why you see bitcoin
going up and minerals are going to do the same
thing because they're scarce assets. All right, back to the
rest of the video. How do we use this information? Well, again,
like I said, we have a mismatch multiplier. So we
understand that all of these things that are going to
be essential to rebuild the United States, the steel, aluminum, copper,
(13:14):
rareth elements, et cetera. And we understand that things are
volatile all right now. What I call the volatility is
the difference the perception, the difference of reality and perception.
So oh my gosh, you know copper, nickel, illuminum, it's
going to go to the roof. Oh it didn't go
up as fast as I want. Oh no. Now look
at all these contracts, oh no. And so each one
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of these is our opportunity. But what we want, really
want is when things get overstretched, we want this mismatch
to get multiplied. We want to grow really, really fast,
and I think that's what we're seeing right now. So
typically when we see that as investors, we want to
push in number two. We want to understand that this
is a new industrial era that we're going into. Just
like we saw about eighty years ago. This could be
(13:58):
the greatest mobilization industrialization of a nation that we've ever seen.
Could lead to massive economic games if you're in the
right areas. It's sort of a manufacturing renaissance. Just like
in nineteen forty four, again we saw that work of
productivity increase. And in order for us to do this again,
the work of productivity has to increase. So we need
things like AI, automation and good thing we have those things,
(14:20):
and so look to those areas. And then for us,
what we want to do is we want to be
able to front run the news. Right Trump put the
executive orders in this year. It's not all over Wall
Street Journal and CNBC telling you to buy this stock
right now, but we see the groundwork that was laid.
This is our opportunity to front run that. Hey, we
see these executive orders are going in place, we understand
the imperative, we see second, third, fourth order effects, and
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so we get there, as they say, before the puck
gets there. And if you really want to know what
the whole game plan is with all the executive orders
that went into place, and what the actual plan is,
not the terriffs but the plan, then you probably want
to watch this whole video right here where I break
it all down. Otherwise, let me know what you think
with the thumbs up thumbs down if you you don't
like the video, but at least tell me why in
the comments down below. And that's what I got to
(15:03):
your success. Wow,