August 18, 2025 • 22 mins
Managing your money Investment money management Tampa
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Ask The Experts Florida is broadcast live Mondays at 9AM ET and Thursdays at 5PM ET on W4CY Radio (www.w4cy.com) part of Talk 4 Radio (www.talk4radio.com) on the Talk 4 Media Network (www.talk4media.com). Ask The Experts Florida is viewed on Talk 4 TV (www.talk4tv.com).
Ask The Experts Florida Podcast is also available on Talk 4 Media (www.talk4media.com), Talk 4 Podcasting (www.talk4podcasting.com), iHeartRadio, Amazon Music, Pandora, Spotify, Audible, and over 100 other podcast outlets.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The topics and opinions express in the following show are
solely those of the hosts and their guests and not
those of W FOURCY Radio. It's employees are affiliates. We
make no recommendations or endorsements radio show, programs, services, or
products mentioned on air or on our web. No liability
explicit or implies shall be extended to W FOURCY Radio
or it's employees are affiliates. Any questions or comments should
be directed to those show hosts. Thank you for choosing
(00:21):
W FOURCY Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Welcome to the Ask the Experts Show on W four
CY Radio and Talk for TV, where we bring you
educational information from top local experts in the fields of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. Now sit back and listen to
experts in family law, association, law, hearing, laws, business brokers,
(00:47):
home care, along with many other topics. Now Here are
your hosts, Stevo and Sophia.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Hey, Good morning, Florida. Welcome to another sc expert show
where we bring you top experts in the field of legal, health, financial,
and home improvement. This weekend I spent looking back at
past shows and show we have for you this morning.
In the first half, gosh it seems like it's been
(01:16):
ten years. Covis Management Groups started with us when we
were doing radio. We did radio for five years and
this is one of the few shows that we are
as a company. We actually allow on to do more
than one show a month, and then we replay the shows.
(01:38):
So we have two live shows and then we replay
the show. And I got to tell you I love
doing this show. This is this area of financial management.
Trust is so important and I have learned to love
not in the wrong way, but I love Ray Ferrara.
(02:01):
He brings this show so much great information. Ray, we
love having you on the show. Good morning, Good.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Morning, Steve. And you can love me anytime you want.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, I am such a big fan of Provided Management Group.
And I got to tell you, Ray, you are so
much You're right so many times more than you are wrong.
And to me, you're like a crystal ball. So someone
who really wants the pulse of the economic world. This
(02:36):
is the greatest show. And I just want to thank
you personally for always bringing us great shows.
Speaker 5 (02:43):
Well, Steve, thank you very much for the compliment. It's
a pleasure to do so.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
You know.
Speaker 5 (02:48):
Provised Management Group has offices in clear Water, and Tampa, Florida.
We also do a lot of our relationships via zoom
because we have clients over thirty states. We're managing right
out about two billion dollars of assets under management on
behalf of those of those clients. And I'm very proud
(03:11):
of the group of folks that we have, all thirty
of them, thirteen of them who are financial advisors, all
of whom have their Certified Financial Planner designation CFP, which
means that we must always represent the interest of our
clients first.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And this is not novel for us.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
We've been doing this since nineteen eighty eight when we
first became a registered investment advisor with the SEC, so
long before it was fashionable to do the right thing.
We've been doing it now for almost forty years. So
I always want to remind people that as a result
of listening to the show, they're certainly entitled to a
(03:54):
one hour complementary consultation with any of our CFP professionals.
It's just let's sit down, answer any questions you have,
get to know you, and if there's an opportunity for
us to help in some way, we'll be delighted to
do so. And if we can't. Perhaps we can direct
you to someplace that can. Obviously we don't do any
(04:16):
tax work, we don't do any legal work, but we
certainly have great contacts around the country to be able
to help people in those particular areas.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
So thank you again for those wonderful comments.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Well, Ray, I look back, there's so many I mean,
our show is about questions and you responding with your answers,
and there's just so many times that we've actually asked
you to predict the future and you've been right.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
And I love.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Your conservative in your ways. You don't overseell provis and
I am telling people out there and this is an
educational show, but listen, I know that it's hard to
find a good money management group the Provis and even
(05:11):
if you're out of the Florida area. Ray has got
clients all over the world. We have moved the show
from a Tampa show to a Florida show and we
just appreciate you. Let me. Let me get started with questions.
You know, we try to stay away Ray from politics,
but we always end up when it comes to the
(05:33):
economy branking the little politics in there. You know, everybody
wants to know what's going on with the FEDS. Looks
like their meeting in September. You've see any changes in September, Steve.
Speaker 5 (05:52):
First of all, let's do some history with the FED.
And when I say history, some over the last twelve months,
time and again people have said, and especially the President,
that the FED is late to the party, that they
haven't reduced interest rates the way he feels and others
(06:14):
feel they should be. I do want to remind everybody
that the FED did lower interest rates last year by
a full one hundred basis points in three different sessions,
with the last one being in December, after the election
was over, but before the President was inaugurated. So as
(06:39):
you've also heard me say on the show that when
these things happen, there's two peaks.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
The first is a psychological peak.
Speaker 5 (06:48):
Just the mere fact that the FED lowered interest rates
or raises interest rates psychologically causes people to react in
either a positive or a negative negative way.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
But I've also said the.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Second peak normally starts to occur about a year later,
because it takes time when you lower interest rates for
all of that to filter through the system and to
actually get into place. Right now, I think a lot
of that second peak, which would be happening just about now,
(07:22):
has been delayed because of all of the conversations around
the tariffs. And I know we have a question a
little bit later on the tariff, so I'll hold off
on that, but it's been delayed clearly. The last job
report caused some issues for the FED, and that they
(07:43):
have a dual mandate, and that is that one that
they try to keep inflation under control and second full employment.
And in this last jobs report that came out in
early August, which reflected July, it wasn't the significant a
lower number of new jobs that were created that caused
(08:04):
to stir, but the adjustments that were made to the
June and May numbers were unusually high, and that has
to be of a concern to the Fed. Now, the
good news is that the before the FED meets in September,
there will actually be another jobs report that will occur
(08:28):
that first Friday in September, which I think is going
to be September fifth, And if that number is also weak,
and or if the further adjustment is made significantly to
the downside, I think it's going to be hard pressed
for the Fed to not lower interest rates by at
(08:53):
least a quarter, maybe even a half a point. Will
get a clue, however, a little bit later this month,
because all of the up and the ups in the
financial world are meeting in Jackson Hole as they have
traditionally for many years now at the end of August.
Chairman Powell will be speaking there, and maybe he'll give
(09:14):
us a small hint as to the direction that the
FED will go. Right now, we're going to give it
about a sixty five percent probability that the Fed will
lower interest rates by a quarter point. If not, then
let me put the prediction on the other side from
my foggy crystal ball, and that is that the market
(09:35):
will take a very serious tumble immediately following the FED meeting.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Ray, did I hear that? Orchrat roits have come down?
Speaker 5 (09:44):
And they have come down a little bit, but they
has actually started to go back up over these past
couple of weeks. It's all been very, very in a
very shallow channel the up and downward movement of long
term interest rates at this point.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
But steve.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
Until we can get interest rates on thirty year mortgages
that are below six percent, you're going to continue to
see a great deal of pressure on the real estate
business as it relates to residential homes. Psychologically, saying I've
got a five and seven eighths interest rate as opposed
(10:24):
to sixth, then an eighth is a big deal. So
we've got a long way to go, and we would
not be surprised, Steve, and in fact, we probably are.
I would go so far as to say that we
think there's a high probability that if the Fed lowers
interest rates on the short side of the curve, that
(10:45):
the long rates actually could move in a positive direction.
Long rates move higher, is what I mean when I
say a positive direction.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
Right, So we're going to get the crystal ball out again.
The market is almost at its highest point. Now, how
high can it go this year and next? What do
you see any stumbles along the way?
Speaker 4 (11:10):
Steve.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
We have seen the market rise some thirty eight percent
since the bottom was hit in early April, immediately following
the President's announcement on the on the tariffs. That is
just an unbelievable rise in such a short period of time.
The only other time that I can remember the market
(11:34):
moving that quickly in that short period of time would
be back in nineteen eighty seven early eighty seven. In fact,
I was in March of that year. I was out
in Denver, Colorado, meeting with the folks from what was
then known as the Janis Funds JA and US, and
(11:56):
I talked with the head of that gentleman named Tom Bailey,
And at that point, the market during the first ten
weeks of the year was up around twenty two to
twenty three percent. And I said to Tom, I said,
so what do we do from here? In a in
a serious but joking way, And he said, in a
(12:18):
serious but joking way, he said, Raises, I've been managing
money for a long time, and the smartest thing we
could do is sell everything, go fishing for the next
nine and a half months, and being up twenty two
to twenty three percent for the year, nobody will false us.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Well.
Speaker 4 (12:34):
Of course, the.
Speaker 5 (12:35):
Market continued to rise up some forty percent before it
crashed in October, and then still ended up the year
eight percent for the year. So I've always said since then,
I always know what the market's going to do. It's
going to go up, and if it doesn't go up,
(12:56):
it's going to go down. It never remained static. But
what I do know is that the market has a
tendency to go up more than it does to go
down over time, and so I have never been, nor
was Tom Bailey ever a market timer where you get
out of the market state. Of course, over time you'll
(13:16):
be fine. And you know, Steve, A lot of people
who are retired say, well, and now that I'm retired,
I don't have a long time. The fact is, from
a longevity standpoint, one of the greatest challenges we have
as financial planners is dealing with the fact that people
are living a lot longer. Back in the good old
days of the seventies, you retired at sixty five and
(13:38):
you were dead by seventy four. Well, today a couple
who retire at age sixty five, one of them has
a chance to get into their early nineties. So we
have to keep in mind that the market is as
like a yo yo going up and down with a
man on a flight of stairs. All have a tendency
(14:00):
to watch the yo yo go up and down, and
we fail to see the man walking up the flight
of stairs. So for those that are nervous just because
the market is high today, don't be I wouldn't be
a bit surprised to see a pullback come over the
next couple of months, but I still think that we
are going to have a positive return for the year.
And I look into twenty six at this point and
(14:23):
I continue to see growth in our economy, albeit slow.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Growth, but it is growth.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
And as long as there's growth, the likelihood of a
recession is extremely small.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
That's great. Hey, I have a two poor question for you.
Are the tariffs inflationary and won't be slow down the
economy or even thankuld go into a recession.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
So the classic definition of inflation is too much money
chasing too few goods. Right now, with the higher interest rate,
it's the Fed is constraining the growth of money in
the United States. So the front side of inflation that
(15:08):
I just defined, too much money isn't there at the moment,
and too few goods is more like right in the
middle of things. It's not like it was a couple
of years ago when inflation really took off and we
had lots of money because the government sending us all
(15:28):
of those checks floating around out there, supply chains were
all screwed up, and therefore the goods were constrained. So
that was a classic reason to see inflation lots of
money and very little product that was out there, So
(15:49):
we don't have that. We don't have that situation today.
As it relates to the tariffs. The tariffs are attacks.
I mean, there's no other way to look at it.
And as you know, I've never been a big fan
of of tariffs, nor am I a big fan of taxes.
But the President has deemed that by creating these tariffs
(16:13):
and creating therefore almost a consumer tax on the American economy,
that this will be a good way for the government
to raise some money. And it probably will raise money
for the government, but as a result, that means it
will be draining money out of the market, out of
(16:36):
the markets, out of the consumer's hands, and therefore it
will slow things down. Will it cause a recession? Again,
we don't think so. We do think that there is
this opportunity for the tariffs to slow things down, but
not to create a huge inflationary problem like we had
(16:58):
in the seventies and keep people tossed around the.
Speaker 4 (17:01):
Word stagflation, which was a word that first.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Came out of a British lawmaker's lips back in the
sixties and then was applied to the seventies we simply
don't see that happening. We do can think, we'll consider
to see longer for longer inflation at our rate, higher
than the Fed would like, but not enough to crush
the economy.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
You know, Ray, there's a lot of new You of
all people know this. There's so many new tax laws
out there. What do you think is going to be
the biggest pitfalls of some of these new tax acts?
Speaker 5 (17:34):
Well, from a pitfall standpoint, what has happened in this
new tax Act, the one Big Beautiful Bill Act that
just passed the Senate in the House and signed by
the President in early July.
Speaker 4 (17:49):
It creates a lot of tax.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Provisions that have thresholds on them, saying that once you
get to a certain threshold that that benefit it goes away.
And it really most of those thresholds are designed to
keep people who are making lots of money from benefiting
in the same way that those that are in the
middle class or even in a lower class of income.
So the biggest pitfall is people not understanding and not
(18:17):
being aware of the thresholds that exist as they earn
and make money that will cause those benefits that they're
anticipating to disappear. And that's one of the reasons, Steve,
that we offer a one hour complementary consultation in our
office in clear Water or in Tampa, or certainly by
(18:40):
Zoom for people to be able to talk about the
One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We have done a special
report on it and we will be doing a webinar
on it.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
In about another two weeks.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
But if anybody would like to have a copy of
our synops of the bill to learn more about it,
all they have to do is send me an email
to info I n f O at pro vis P
R O B I SE dot com. Info dot com
be happy to schedule that consultation and or send out
(19:19):
send out the report so that you can see the
various effects that actually occur.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
This is really strange. We just got a text from
Elizabeth Hall in Miami, who's listening to the show. My
next question to you is about life insurance and if
it's a good savings program from retirement, and she wrote,
what are you your feelings on life insurance? That's amazing, Well.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
She must be have esp Steve.
Speaker 5 (19:53):
I don't know that we have enough time to answer
that Elizabeth today, but let me simply say that there
is a place for life insuranurance and everybody's portfolio. We
do not see it as a savings vehicle for retirement.
We believe that life insurance is to replace the income
of someone guys prematurely, to pay down debt at death,
(20:17):
or to pay a state taxes, and none of those
three have anything to do with retirement planning. So if
if it's not about replacing income, if it's not about
paying down debts, and if it's not about paying a
state taxes, we don't see the reason for people to
have life insurance and clearly in our minds, not for
retirement planning. I know there's gonna be a lot of
people out there that are going to disagree with that.
(20:39):
Most of them are the people who are selling life
insurance policies that are too darn expensive.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Great, tell people how they can reach you.
Speaker 5 (20:47):
Folks can reach us by calling seven two seven four
four one nine zero two two. That's seven two seven
four four one nine zero two two, or they can
simply go to our website to learn more. And that's
provis p R o v I SC dot com. Delighted
(21:07):
to hear from any of our listeners. It's always fun
to have good conversations with them and Steve.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Thanks a lot for a great show today.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Thank you Ray, and we'll see you in a couple
of weeks. But you can always go back to iHeart
Our Spotify and listen to today's show. Ray. Thank you so much. Bro,
have a wonderful week, and we'll see you in a
couple of weeks. Thank you, Steve, you as well. That's
Ray Ferraro provis We're going to go to break come back.
(21:35):
We've got our next expert incredible, another incredible show will
be right back.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Thanks for tuning in today to be Ask the Expert
Show on W four c Y Radio and Talk for TV.
Tune in next week and every week to hear more
from our experts on personal injury, insurance, air condition repairs,
estate planning, medicaid, and many other topics in the areas
of legal, health, financial and home improvement. See you next week.
The topics and opinions express in the following show are
solely those of the hosts and their guests and not
those of W FOURCY Radio. It's employees are affiliates. We
make no recommendations or endorsements radio show, programs, services, or
products mentioned on air or on our web. No liability
explicit or implies shall be extended to W FOURCY Radio
or it's employees are affiliates. Any questions or comments should
be directed to those show hosts. Thank you for choosing
(00:21):
W FOURCY Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Welcome to the Ask the Experts Show on W four
CY Radio and Talk for TV, where we bring you
educational information from top local experts in the fields of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. Now sit back and listen to
experts in family law, association, law, hearing, laws, business brokers,
(00:47):
home care, along with many other topics. Now Here are
your hosts, Stevo and Sophia.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Hey, Good morning, Florida. Welcome to another sc expert show
where we bring you top experts in the field of legal, health, financial,
and home improvement. This weekend I spent looking back at
past shows and show we have for you this morning.
In the first half, gosh it seems like it's been
(01:16):
ten years. Covis Management Groups started with us when we
were doing radio. We did radio for five years and
this is one of the few shows that we are
as a company. We actually allow on to do more
than one show a month, and then we replay the shows.
(01:38):
So we have two live shows and then we replay
the show. And I got to tell you I love
doing this show. This is this area of financial management.
Trust is so important and I have learned to love
not in the wrong way, but I love Ray Ferrara.
(02:01):
He brings this show so much great information. Ray, we
love having you on the show. Good morning, Good.
Speaker 4 (02:10):
Morning, Steve. And you can love me anytime you want.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, I am such a big fan of Provided Management Group.
And I got to tell you, Ray, you are so
much You're right so many times more than you are wrong.
And to me, you're like a crystal ball. So someone
who really wants the pulse of the economic world. This
(02:36):
is the greatest show. And I just want to thank
you personally for always bringing us great shows.
Speaker 5 (02:43):
Well, Steve, thank you very much for the compliment. It's
a pleasure to do so.
Speaker 3 (02:48):
You know.
Speaker 5 (02:48):
Provised Management Group has offices in clear Water, and Tampa, Florida.
We also do a lot of our relationships via zoom
because we have clients over thirty states. We're managing right
out about two billion dollars of assets under management on
behalf of those of those clients. And I'm very proud
(03:11):
of the group of folks that we have, all thirty
of them, thirteen of them who are financial advisors, all
of whom have their Certified Financial Planner designation CFP, which
means that we must always represent the interest of our
clients first.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
And this is not novel for us.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
We've been doing this since nineteen eighty eight when we
first became a registered investment advisor with the SEC, so
long before it was fashionable to do the right thing.
We've been doing it now for almost forty years. So
I always want to remind people that as a result
of listening to the show, they're certainly entitled to a
(03:54):
one hour complementary consultation with any of our CFP professionals.
It's just let's sit down, answer any questions you have,
get to know you, and if there's an opportunity for
us to help in some way, we'll be delighted to
do so. And if we can't. Perhaps we can direct
you to someplace that can. Obviously we don't do any
(04:16):
tax work, we don't do any legal work, but we
certainly have great contacts around the country to be able
to help people in those particular areas.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
So thank you again for those wonderful comments.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Well, Ray, I look back, there's so many I mean,
our show is about questions and you responding with your answers,
and there's just so many times that we've actually asked
you to predict the future and you've been right.
Speaker 4 (04:49):
And I love.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Your conservative in your ways. You don't overseell provis and
I am telling people out there and this is an
educational show, but listen, I know that it's hard to
find a good money management group the Provis and even
(05:11):
if you're out of the Florida area. Ray has got
clients all over the world. We have moved the show
from a Tampa show to a Florida show and we
just appreciate you. Let me. Let me get started with questions.
You know, we try to stay away Ray from politics,
but we always end up when it comes to the
(05:33):
economy branking the little politics in there. You know, everybody
wants to know what's going on with the FEDS. Looks
like their meeting in September. You've see any changes in September, Steve.
Speaker 5 (05:52):
First of all, let's do some history with the FED.
And when I say history, some over the last twelve months,
time and again people have said, and especially the President,
that the FED is late to the party, that they
haven't reduced interest rates the way he feels and others
(06:14):
feel they should be. I do want to remind everybody
that the FED did lower interest rates last year by
a full one hundred basis points in three different sessions,
with the last one being in December, after the election
was over, but before the President was inaugurated. So as
(06:39):
you've also heard me say on the show that when
these things happen, there's two peaks.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
The first is a psychological peak.
Speaker 5 (06:48):
Just the mere fact that the FED lowered interest rates
or raises interest rates psychologically causes people to react in
either a positive or a negative negative way.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
But I've also said the.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Second peak normally starts to occur about a year later,
because it takes time when you lower interest rates for
all of that to filter through the system and to
actually get into place. Right now, I think a lot
of that second peak, which would be happening just about now,
(07:22):
has been delayed because of all of the conversations around
the tariffs. And I know we have a question a
little bit later on the tariff, so I'll hold off
on that, but it's been delayed clearly. The last job
report caused some issues for the FED, and that they
(07:43):
have a dual mandate, and that is that one that
they try to keep inflation under control and second full employment.
And in this last jobs report that came out in
early August, which reflected July, it wasn't the significant a
lower number of new jobs that were created that caused
(08:04):
to stir, but the adjustments that were made to the
June and May numbers were unusually high, and that has
to be of a concern to the Fed. Now, the
good news is that the before the FED meets in September,
there will actually be another jobs report that will occur
(08:28):
that first Friday in September, which I think is going
to be September fifth, And if that number is also weak,
and or if the further adjustment is made significantly to
the downside, I think it's going to be hard pressed
for the Fed to not lower interest rates by at
(08:53):
least a quarter, maybe even a half a point. Will
get a clue, however, a little bit later this month,
because all of the up and the ups in the
financial world are meeting in Jackson Hole as they have
traditionally for many years now at the end of August.
Chairman Powell will be speaking there, and maybe he'll give
(09:14):
us a small hint as to the direction that the
FED will go. Right now, we're going to give it
about a sixty five percent probability that the Fed will
lower interest rates by a quarter point. If not, then
let me put the prediction on the other side from
my foggy crystal ball, and that is that the market
(09:35):
will take a very serious tumble immediately following the FED meeting.
Speaker 3 (09:40):
Ray, did I hear that? Orchrat roits have come down?
Speaker 5 (09:44):
And they have come down a little bit, but they
has actually started to go back up over these past
couple of weeks. It's all been very, very in a
very shallow channel the up and downward movement of long
term interest rates at this point.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
But steve.
Speaker 5 (10:03):
Until we can get interest rates on thirty year mortgages
that are below six percent, you're going to continue to
see a great deal of pressure on the real estate
business as it relates to residential homes. Psychologically, saying I've
got a five and seven eighths interest rate as opposed
(10:24):
to sixth, then an eighth is a big deal. So
we've got a long way to go, and we would
not be surprised, Steve, and in fact, we probably are.
I would go so far as to say that we
think there's a high probability that if the Fed lowers
interest rates on the short side of the curve, that
(10:45):
the long rates actually could move in a positive direction.
Long rates move higher, is what I mean when I
say a positive direction.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
Right, So we're going to get the crystal ball out again.
The market is almost at its highest point. Now, how
high can it go this year and next? What do
you see any stumbles along the way?
Speaker 4 (11:10):
Steve.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
We have seen the market rise some thirty eight percent
since the bottom was hit in early April, immediately following
the President's announcement on the on the tariffs. That is
just an unbelievable rise in such a short period of time.
The only other time that I can remember the market
(11:34):
moving that quickly in that short period of time would
be back in nineteen eighty seven early eighty seven. In fact,
I was in March of that year. I was out
in Denver, Colorado, meeting with the folks from what was
then known as the Janis Funds JA and US, and
(11:56):
I talked with the head of that gentleman named Tom Bailey,
And at that point, the market during the first ten
weeks of the year was up around twenty two to
twenty three percent. And I said to Tom, I said,
so what do we do from here? In a in
a serious but joking way, And he said, in a
(12:18):
serious but joking way, he said, Raises, I've been managing
money for a long time, and the smartest thing we
could do is sell everything, go fishing for the next
nine and a half months, and being up twenty two
to twenty three percent for the year, nobody will false us.
Speaker 3 (12:34):
Well.
Speaker 4 (12:34):
Of course, the.
Speaker 5 (12:35):
Market continued to rise up some forty percent before it
crashed in October, and then still ended up the year
eight percent for the year. So I've always said since then,
I always know what the market's going to do. It's
going to go up, and if it doesn't go up,
(12:56):
it's going to go down. It never remained static. But
what I do know is that the market has a
tendency to go up more than it does to go
down over time, and so I have never been, nor
was Tom Bailey ever a market timer where you get
out of the market state. Of course, over time you'll
(13:16):
be fine. And you know, Steve, A lot of people
who are retired say, well, and now that I'm retired,
I don't have a long time. The fact is, from
a longevity standpoint, one of the greatest challenges we have
as financial planners is dealing with the fact that people
are living a lot longer. Back in the good old
days of the seventies, you retired at sixty five and
(13:38):
you were dead by seventy four. Well, today a couple
who retire at age sixty five, one of them has
a chance to get into their early nineties. So we
have to keep in mind that the market is as
like a yo yo going up and down with a
man on a flight of stairs. All have a tendency
(14:00):
to watch the yo yo go up and down, and
we fail to see the man walking up the flight
of stairs. So for those that are nervous just because
the market is high today, don't be I wouldn't be
a bit surprised to see a pullback come over the
next couple of months, but I still think that we
are going to have a positive return for the year.
And I look into twenty six at this point and
(14:23):
I continue to see growth in our economy, albeit slow.
Speaker 4 (14:27):
Growth, but it is growth.
Speaker 5 (14:28):
And as long as there's growth, the likelihood of a
recession is extremely small.
Speaker 3 (14:33):
That's great. Hey, I have a two poor question for you.
Are the tariffs inflationary and won't be slow down the
economy or even thankuld go into a recession.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
So the classic definition of inflation is too much money
chasing too few goods. Right now, with the higher interest rate,
it's the Fed is constraining the growth of money in
the United States. So the front side of inflation that
(15:08):
I just defined, too much money isn't there at the moment,
and too few goods is more like right in the
middle of things. It's not like it was a couple
of years ago when inflation really took off and we
had lots of money because the government sending us all
(15:28):
of those checks floating around out there, supply chains were
all screwed up, and therefore the goods were constrained. So
that was a classic reason to see inflation lots of
money and very little product that was out there, So
(15:49):
we don't have that. We don't have that situation today.
As it relates to the tariffs. The tariffs are attacks.
I mean, there's no other way to look at it.
And as you know, I've never been a big fan
of of tariffs, nor am I a big fan of taxes.
But the President has deemed that by creating these tariffs
(16:13):
and creating therefore almost a consumer tax on the American economy,
that this will be a good way for the government
to raise some money. And it probably will raise money
for the government, but as a result, that means it
will be draining money out of the market, out of
(16:36):
the markets, out of the consumer's hands, and therefore it
will slow things down. Will it cause a recession? Again,
we don't think so. We do think that there is
this opportunity for the tariffs to slow things down, but
not to create a huge inflationary problem like we had
(16:58):
in the seventies and keep people tossed around the.
Speaker 4 (17:01):
Word stagflation, which was a word that first.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Came out of a British lawmaker's lips back in the
sixties and then was applied to the seventies we simply
don't see that happening. We do can think, we'll consider
to see longer for longer inflation at our rate, higher
than the Fed would like, but not enough to crush
the economy.
Speaker 3 (17:23):
You know, Ray, there's a lot of new You of
all people know this. There's so many new tax laws
out there. What do you think is going to be
the biggest pitfalls of some of these new tax acts?
Speaker 5 (17:34):
Well, from a pitfall standpoint, what has happened in this
new tax Act, the one Big Beautiful Bill Act that
just passed the Senate in the House and signed by
the President in early July.
Speaker 4 (17:49):
It creates a lot of tax.
Speaker 5 (17:53):
Provisions that have thresholds on them, saying that once you
get to a certain threshold that that benefit it goes away.
And it really most of those thresholds are designed to
keep people who are making lots of money from benefiting
in the same way that those that are in the
middle class or even in a lower class of income.
So the biggest pitfall is people not understanding and not
(18:17):
being aware of the thresholds that exist as they earn
and make money that will cause those benefits that they're
anticipating to disappear. And that's one of the reasons, Steve,
that we offer a one hour complementary consultation in our
office in clear Water or in Tampa, or certainly by
(18:40):
Zoom for people to be able to talk about the
One Big Beautiful Bill Act. We have done a special
report on it and we will be doing a webinar
on it.
Speaker 4 (18:54):
In about another two weeks.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
But if anybody would like to have a copy of
our synops of the bill to learn more about it,
all they have to do is send me an email
to info I n f O at pro vis P
R O B I SE dot com. Info dot com
be happy to schedule that consultation and or send out
(19:19):
send out the report so that you can see the
various effects that actually occur.
Speaker 3 (19:25):
This is really strange. We just got a text from
Elizabeth Hall in Miami, who's listening to the show. My
next question to you is about life insurance and if
it's a good savings program from retirement, and she wrote,
what are you your feelings on life insurance? That's amazing, Well.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
She must be have esp Steve.
Speaker 5 (19:53):
I don't know that we have enough time to answer
that Elizabeth today, but let me simply say that there
is a place for life insuranurance and everybody's portfolio. We
do not see it as a savings vehicle for retirement.
We believe that life insurance is to replace the income
of someone guys prematurely, to pay down debt at death,
(20:17):
or to pay a state taxes, and none of those
three have anything to do with retirement planning. So if
if it's not about replacing income, if it's not about
paying down debts, and if it's not about paying a
state taxes, we don't see the reason for people to
have life insurance and clearly in our minds, not for
retirement planning. I know there's gonna be a lot of
people out there that are going to disagree with that.
(20:39):
Most of them are the people who are selling life
insurance policies that are too darn expensive.
Speaker 3 (20:44):
Great, tell people how they can reach you.
Speaker 5 (20:47):
Folks can reach us by calling seven two seven four
four one nine zero two two. That's seven two seven
four four one nine zero two two, or they can
simply go to our website to learn more. And that's
provis p R o v I SC dot com. Delighted
(21:07):
to hear from any of our listeners. It's always fun
to have good conversations with them and Steve.
Speaker 4 (21:13):
Thanks a lot for a great show today.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Thank you Ray, and we'll see you in a couple
of weeks. But you can always go back to iHeart
Our Spotify and listen to today's show. Ray. Thank you so much. Bro,
have a wonderful week, and we'll see you in a
couple of weeks. Thank you, Steve, you as well. That's
Ray Ferraro provis We're going to go to break come back.
(21:35):
We've got our next expert incredible, another incredible show will
be right back.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Thanks for tuning in today to be Ask the Expert
Show on W four c Y Radio and Talk for TV.
Tune in next week and every week to hear more
from our experts on personal injury, insurance, air condition repairs,
estate planning, medicaid, and many other topics in the areas
of legal, health, financial and home improvement. See you next week.
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