June 16, 2025 • 22 mins
Managing your money wealth management tax savings
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Ask The Experts Florida is broadcast live Mondays at 9AM ET and Thursdays at 5PM ET on W4CY Radio (www.w4cy.com) part of Talk 4 Radio (www.talk4radio.com) on the Talk 4 Media Network (www.talk4media.com). Ask The Experts Florida is viewed on Talk 4 TV (www.talk4tv.com).
Ask The Experts Florida Podcast is also available on Talk 4 Media (www.talk4media.com), Talk 4 Podcasting (www.talk4podcasting.com), iHeartRadio, Amazon Music, Pandora, Spotify, Audible, and over 100 other podcast outlets.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The topics and opinions expressed in the following show are
solely those of the hosts and their guests and not
those of W FOURCY Radio, it's employees are affiliates. We
make no recommendations or endorsements for radio show programs, services,
or products mentioned on air or on our web. No
liability explicitor implied shall be extended to W FOURCY Radio
or it's employees or affiliates. Any questions or comments should
be directed to those show hosts. Thank you for choosing
(00:21):
W FOURCY Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Welcome to the Ask the Experts Show on W FOURCY
Radio and Talk for TV, where we bring you educational
information from top local experts in the fields of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. Now sit back and listen to
experts in family law, association, law, hearing laws, business brokers,
(00:47):
home care, along with many other topics. Now Here are
your hosts, Spivo and Sophia.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Hey, Good morning, Florida. Welcome to another Asked the Experts show,
where we bring you top experts in the field of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. I hope everybody had a wonderful
Father's Day yesterday. It's only once a year, but it's
I have kids, so it's an important holiday for me,
(01:17):
and it is gosh. I just always have my fingers
crossed it. My kids will at least call me. I
just get a call. I'm okay. I don't care about
the gifts anyhow. We have got a great show for
you this morning, and I want to tell you something.
This show that's coming up right now. I am so
glad we moved it from just the Tampa area to
(01:40):
the entire Florida area and it's because we get so
many letters from you. It's amazing. It's probably one of
our most popular shows. It's the Provised Management Group show.
And I got to tell you we probably because we
start prom voting the show about two to three days
(02:02):
out and as of this morning, we had emails coming
in because of the conflict going on. And I'll bet
you're are expert, Ray Ferrara will not be surprised. That's
what everybody wants to know about. Good morning, Ray, Steve.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Good morning and as always, Happy Monday. Yes.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Absolutely, And you know, Ray, we do this for every
show and I'm so glad we do your show twice
a month. It's that important. I got to tell you
that I'm so amazed about the amount of email that
we get about your show. People love the advice that
(02:44):
you give and it's so important, especially probably now more
than ever. But it's God. We are getting so many
new people who have We've been doing this for I
think four years now and five years now, but people
are saying, hey, I just down your show. So tell
people first of all about Provides Management Group.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Happy to do so. Steven provises a financial planning and
investment management firm, with the emphasis on the financial planning side.
Lots of people call themselves financial planners, but really all
they are asset gatherers investment folks, and clearly investments are
an important part of the financial plan. But a financial
(03:27):
plan encompasses much more than just investment, retirement planning, education planning, budgeting,
dealing with asset protection insurances, not just life insurance, but
homeowners auto here in Florida of course having to deal
with wind. So it is an integrated financial plan that
(03:53):
we prepare for our clients. We have two offices here,
one in Clearwater which is our main office, and the
other in Tampa. We have a wonderful group staff of
thirty people that includes thirteen financial advisors, all of whom
have the Certified Financial Planner CFP designation, and we've been
(04:16):
working at a fiduciary standard of care since nineteen eighty eight,
long before it became in vogue. Yes, and we always
offer a one hour complementary consultation to any of our listeners.
You simply have to give our office a call at
seven two seven four four one nine zero two two.
(04:40):
That's seven two seven or four to one now nine
zero two two, Or you can go if you'd like
to first learn a little bit more about us, go
to provis dot com and that's p R O v
I SE dot com, p R O D s E
dot com. Take advantage. We'll meet in person and either
clear Tampa or if it's more comfortable for you, we'll
(05:02):
be happy to set up a zoom call to do
that complementary consultation.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
And you do take on clients from all over, not
just from Tampa.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Well, not just in Florida. We actually have clients in
over thirty states and we're managing somewhere around two billion
dollars on behalf of our clients.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Gray, do you ever look back when you started provided
management group where you've taken the company up till now.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
You know, I'm a very optimistic person, Stephen, as you're aware,
and I am a dreamer, but I never would have
dreamed that Provides would have reached the size and the
status that it has within the financial planning community. I'm
very proud of the folks that have been part of
(05:56):
Provides over the years, and particularly proud of the of
the current team that we have. And in fact, just
last week we brought on two young college grads, one
from the University of South Florida and the other from
Florida beginning as a paraplanners and working so we believe
in home growing our financial planners and excited about the
(06:22):
growth that's in the future.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Well, what you've done is so amazing, so I was
saying in the beginning of the show. We've gotten so
many texts and emails people wondering about the conflict in
the Middle East now and how is it going to
affect the stock and bond markets short and long term?
And how should investors react?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So, wow, that's a mouthful. So obviously the stock and
the bond market have already reacted. Last Friday was a
significant downturn for the market. It is bouncing back a
little bit this morning, uh maybe about forty percent of
what it lost last Friday. So volatility is and continues
(07:09):
to be the name of the game at the moment,
and we're going to can see continued volatility. We've seen
the conflict continue over over the weekend and this morning
Israel basically says that they have control of the airspace
over Ouran, which is an unbelievable feat if in fact
(07:34):
they have been able to have been able to do that.
So now that leads us to what happens from here.
So far on Iran's response has been directed at Israel.
It hasn't had any of its surrogate organizations like Hisbola
(07:59):
and others that they have sponsored over the years to
have retaliated. Yet there's oil is up this morning again
dramatically because of worried about supplies. Even though Iran does
not produce that much on the world markets, the balance
(08:23):
would be destabilized. So far, the Israelis have stayed away
from the oil fields and the manufacturing. And why would
they do that when it's so important to Irun? The
biggest reason is is that if they did it, it
would drive prices up and if there's anything that would
(08:46):
upset the president of the United States, it's rising oil prices.
And so my sense is that Israel is refraining from
hitting the oil the oilids in Iran because it doesn't
want to upset it's good friend, the United States, and
particularly it's our president. Also, one has to remember that
(09:10):
for every in round numbers, if you add ten dollars
to a barrel of oil, you're going to increase inflation
by thirty basis points plus or minus ten basis points,
somewhere between twenty and forty basis points, which is exactly
the opposite of what the President wants to hear. So
(09:32):
the muted response so far has indicated that the pieces
simply need to come together so that there won't be
inflation as a result of the of the oil. Now,
what should an investor do In the short run, You're
(09:56):
going to have to deal with the volatility, that's what
you have to do. You're going to have to just
stomach it. In the long run, there's been a lot
of talk about trades that would be made in the
defense industry, trades that could be done in oil, etc.
And if you're a short term trader, which most of
our listeners are not traders. There may be some opportunities
that are there, but even then I would caution about
(10:19):
the short run, with the volatility that's existing today. Look
at your portfolio, make sure that your asked that allocation
is correct. I know this is very boring stuff, but
on a long term basis, that's how people should be investing.
And trying to beat the system with short term gains
(10:40):
during cases of volatility simply doesn't usually come out in
a positive way. So don't do anything with your portfolio.
Don't panic, don't sell. For heaven's sakes, if there is
a further dip in the market and you have cash,
considered nibbling at those dips as they occur, as they
(11:04):
did on last Friday. So stay the course, you know, Stephen,
our listeners have heard me say that over and over again,
but in this case that's the best thing to do.
This too, shall pass, and hopefully the world will be
in a better place at the conclusion of this war
between Israel and Iran.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Right do you see with the oil price is going up? Well,
that reflected the gas stations also.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
Oh absolutely, and we really have already seen some increases
that occurred late last week. You know, the way it
works is when oil prices go up, gasoline prices go
up immediately, even though the gasoline that's in the system
(11:54):
is not the price that the oil that is today.
And then when oil price has come back down, prices
that the Selene pump take much longer to come, you know,
come back down. So they've got a good gig. You know,
they go up quickly and they go down slowly.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
So I guess also top top of mind also is
the Big Beautiful Bill. The Senates preparing changes to the
House passed by the Big Beautiful Bill, and the President
wantn't on his desk by July fourth. What do you
think some of the changes are going to be.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
Well, we're going to find out this afternoon exactly what
those changes are going to be. The Senate is prepared
to release its preliminary version of the bill. The things
that have generally been talked about and are likely to
be changed in a fairly substantial way will be the
(12:52):
State and Local Taxes initiative that's commonly referred to as
salt for a state and local taxes. It's been ten
thousand dollars per year, a cap that's existed since twenty seventeen.
In the House, they had proposed originally increasing that to
(13:15):
twenty thousand, but before they were able to pass it, it
was increased to forty thousand, and that's where it sits
in their bill. I would expect the Senate to come
back to the twenty thousand dollars level. That's my estimate
as to where they would they would be. I would
look for that kind of a change. Also that there
(13:35):
are Although a lot of people perceive medicare excuse me
Medicaid as a giveaway to people who are too lazy
to work and who might have immigrated here to the
United States, etc. It is also a very important program
and one that even Republican senators and some representatives are
(14:03):
very concerned about, and that the House cut too deeply
into into Medicaid. Everybody wants to see waste, fraud, and
abuse be eliminated from any system, and particularly medicaid, and
I think that that can be done. But to cut
as deeply into the program as was proposed by the House,
(14:26):
I think there will be some pretty significant pushback in
the in the in the Senate, I'd also expect that
the Senate might look at eliminating some of the provisions
or limiting the provisions around no taxation on tips and
over time, which frankly, as it relates to the tips,
(14:55):
I'm still convinced even that not all that tip income
gets reported the way it should. And in order to
take advantage of the no tip no tax on tips,
you'll have to report tips in the first place. And
if suddenly those tips are greater than what you've been,
you know, producing for all these years and you've been
(15:16):
in that same job, it's going to certainly.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Raise I think of that.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
Yes, So you know, if I was getting tip income
and I wasn't doing what I should be doing by
declaring it all, I'm not sure how much of it
I would declare, and it would look pretty silly if
I just declare up to the limit and then suddenly
I don't have any more tips after that. Right, those
(15:40):
kinds of provisions I think will change. If we're going
will we make it by July fourth? I think there's
a very low probability of that. Here. We're here, we're
sitting the middle of June, the sixteenth of July, so
we've got twenty days. The bill has to go through
all of the different houses, excuse me, all of the
(16:01):
different committees in the Senate that'll probably get done this week,
probably see the bill get to the floor of the
Senate over the weekend, maybe early next week for votes,
and it'll pass barely, just like it did in the House.
(16:23):
And then the two are going to have to sit
down and iron out their differences. And we just don't
see how it's possible for them to get it all
done between now and the fourth of July and get
it on the President's desk. Not saying it can't happen,
but the odds of it happening are really small.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
What about What do you think the Senate's going to
do with military cuts and social Security? Do you think
they'll leave it the way the Congress has done it.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
I think that as far as social Security is concerned,
it will it will not be it will not be
hurt in any way. The significant change that was proposed
about not taxing social security was scrapped in the House bill,
but they did give to seniors, which is an undefined
(17:14):
term in the bill. It's assumed to be sixty five
and above that they would get an extra deduction of
four thousand dollars per year, which would save the average
senior maybe in the neighborhood of seven hundred and eight
hundred dollars eight hundred dollars per year in taxes that
(17:34):
that might get dropped. But no changes to soel security
given the events of the past week particularly, but even
one could say the past few years, I don't see
significant cuts to the defense budget. It's just too important
(17:55):
to maintain their security.
Speaker 3 (17:57):
I agree to meet later this month. Any opportunity for
long anticipated rate cut, there's.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Two chances, none and none at all.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Uh I there's very few things that I feel absolutely
positive about in a world of uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
But I feel pretty confident that there is nothing that
has occurred since the FED met in May that would
cause them to make a change in them and interest
rates at this meeting, and the likelihood that it will
occur at the next meeting is very small. About the
(18:43):
only thing economically, I don't see any reason for the
for the FED to move at this point that the
FED thinks it would move at this point. But if
this conflict between and war, if you wish to call
it that, between Iran and Israel were to significantly escalate,
and let's say that Aaran reaches a point of total
(19:08):
desperation and they decide to just throw everything they've got
wherever they can throw it in some type of a
hail Mary case and we're effective with it, which could
cause significant disruption to the world economy. That might move
the Fed to do something with the interest rates that
is beyond the economic reasons to do it, but in
(19:32):
this case, to make money flow a little more freely.
My hope is that doesn't happen because Auran capitulating and
throwing everything in a act of desperation cannot end well
for anybody.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
A lot of people are asking, do you think this
is political while they're not cutting rates?
Speaker 4 (19:56):
It's a coin with two heads on it, and and
the other coin that I have in my pocket has
two tails on it. You know, when you look at
the facts, you can make an argument that the Fed
should cut interest rates from an economic point of view.
You look at those same set of facts, steven, and
(20:17):
you can make an equally strong argument that they should
not at the moment. At the moment, we believe that
the Fed should stay put that from an economic standpoint,
there is no reason to cut the rates if we
see job weakness and more cuts than there are new
(20:40):
jobs being done. That would cause the FED from an
economic standpoint, to cut to cut rates the moment, we
don't see that. We're still one hundred and forty hundred
and fifty thousand new jobs every month. Translate that out,
that's one hundred and that's one point eight million new
jobs in the course of a year. So why would
(21:03):
you cut in the face of that? Steven and I
know we only got a little time left, and I
just want to make sure that everybody knows about our
offer for a complimentary one hour consultation. All they have
to do is give our office a call at seven
two seven four four one nine zero two two. That's
(21:23):
seven two seven or four to one nine zero two
two and just say you'd like to set up a
complimentary one hour consultation in our Clearwater or Tampa office
or by zoom uh and meet with one of our
certified financial planners. We'll be happy to set that up.
If you want to check up on us ahead of time,
(21:43):
go to provis dot com and that's p R O
V I S E dot com.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Ray, we certainly appreciate you. We're so glad we have
you twice a month. You'll be back again with us
in two weeks. We appreciate you and have a wonderful week.
Thanks so much.
Speaker 4 (22:04):
Ray, Take care, Steven and look forward to seeing you
in two weeks.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
And we'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Thanks for tuning in today to the Ask the Expert
Show on the W four CY radio and Talk for TV.
Tune in next week and every week to hear more
from our experts on personal injury, insurance, air condition repairs,
estate planning, medicare, and many other topics in the areas
of legal, health, financial and home improvement. See you next week.
The topics and opinions expressed in the following show are
solely those of the hosts and their guests and not
those of W FOURCY Radio, it's employees are affiliates. We
make no recommendations or endorsements for radio show programs, services,
or products mentioned on air or on our web. No
liability explicitor implied shall be extended to W FOURCY Radio
or it's employees or affiliates. Any questions or comments should
be directed to those show hosts. Thank you for choosing
(00:21):
W FOURCY Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Welcome to the Ask the Experts Show on W FOURCY
Radio and Talk for TV, where we bring you educational
information from top local experts in the fields of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. Now sit back and listen to
experts in family law, association, law, hearing laws, business brokers,
(00:47):
home care, along with many other topics. Now Here are
your hosts, Spivo and Sophia.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
Hey, Good morning, Florida. Welcome to another Asked the Experts show,
where we bring you top experts in the field of legal, health,
financial and home improvement. I hope everybody had a wonderful
Father's Day yesterday. It's only once a year, but it's
I have kids, so it's an important holiday for me,
(01:17):
and it is gosh. I just always have my fingers
crossed it. My kids will at least call me. I
just get a call. I'm okay. I don't care about
the gifts anyhow. We have got a great show for
you this morning, and I want to tell you something.
This show that's coming up right now. I am so
glad we moved it from just the Tampa area to
(01:40):
the entire Florida area and it's because we get so
many letters from you. It's amazing. It's probably one of
our most popular shows. It's the Provised Management Group show.
And I got to tell you we probably because we
start prom voting the show about two to three days
(02:02):
out and as of this morning, we had emails coming
in because of the conflict going on. And I'll bet
you're are expert, Ray Ferrara will not be surprised. That's
what everybody wants to know about. Good morning, Ray, Steve.
Speaker 4 (02:19):
Good morning and as always, Happy Monday. Yes.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Absolutely, And you know, Ray, we do this for every
show and I'm so glad we do your show twice
a month. It's that important. I got to tell you
that I'm so amazed about the amount of email that
we get about your show. People love the advice that
(02:44):
you give and it's so important, especially probably now more
than ever. But it's God. We are getting so many
new people who have We've been doing this for I
think four years now and five years now, but people
are saying, hey, I just down your show. So tell
people first of all about Provides Management Group.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Happy to do so. Steven provises a financial planning and
investment management firm, with the emphasis on the financial planning side.
Lots of people call themselves financial planners, but really all
they are asset gatherers investment folks, and clearly investments are
an important part of the financial plan. But a financial
(03:27):
plan encompasses much more than just investment, retirement planning, education planning, budgeting,
dealing with asset protection insurances, not just life insurance, but
homeowners auto here in Florida of course having to deal
with wind. So it is an integrated financial plan that
(03:53):
we prepare for our clients. We have two offices here,
one in Clearwater which is our main office, and the
other in Tampa. We have a wonderful group staff of
thirty people that includes thirteen financial advisors, all of whom
have the Certified Financial Planner CFP designation, and we've been
(04:16):
working at a fiduciary standard of care since nineteen eighty eight,
long before it became in vogue. Yes, and we always
offer a one hour complementary consultation to any of our listeners.
You simply have to give our office a call at
seven two seven four four one nine zero two two.
(04:40):
That's seven two seven or four to one now nine
zero two two, Or you can go if you'd like
to first learn a little bit more about us, go
to provis dot com and that's p R O v
I SE dot com, p R O D s E
dot com. Take advantage. We'll meet in person and either
clear Tampa or if it's more comfortable for you, we'll
(05:02):
be happy to set up a zoom call to do
that complementary consultation.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
And you do take on clients from all over, not
just from Tampa.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Well, not just in Florida. We actually have clients in
over thirty states and we're managing somewhere around two billion
dollars on behalf of our clients.
Speaker 3 (05:25):
Gray, do you ever look back when you started provided
management group where you've taken the company up till now.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
You know, I'm a very optimistic person, Stephen, as you're aware,
and I am a dreamer, but I never would have
dreamed that Provides would have reached the size and the
status that it has within the financial planning community. I'm
very proud of the folks that have been part of
(05:56):
Provides over the years, and particularly proud of the of
the current team that we have. And in fact, just
last week we brought on two young college grads, one
from the University of South Florida and the other from
Florida beginning as a paraplanners and working so we believe
in home growing our financial planners and excited about the
(06:22):
growth that's in the future.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Well, what you've done is so amazing, so I was
saying in the beginning of the show. We've gotten so
many texts and emails people wondering about the conflict in
the Middle East now and how is it going to
affect the stock and bond markets short and long term?
And how should investors react?
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So, wow, that's a mouthful. So obviously the stock and
the bond market have already reacted. Last Friday was a
significant downturn for the market. It is bouncing back a
little bit this morning, uh maybe about forty percent of
what it lost last Friday. So volatility is and continues
(07:09):
to be the name of the game at the moment,
and we're going to can see continued volatility. We've seen
the conflict continue over over the weekend and this morning
Israel basically says that they have control of the airspace
over Ouran, which is an unbelievable feat if in fact
(07:34):
they have been able to have been able to do that.
So now that leads us to what happens from here.
So far on Iran's response has been directed at Israel.
It hasn't had any of its surrogate organizations like Hisbola
(07:59):
and others that they have sponsored over the years to
have retaliated. Yet there's oil is up this morning again
dramatically because of worried about supplies. Even though Iran does
not produce that much on the world markets, the balance
(08:23):
would be destabilized. So far, the Israelis have stayed away
from the oil fields and the manufacturing. And why would
they do that when it's so important to Irun? The
biggest reason is is that if they did it, it
would drive prices up and if there's anything that would
(08:46):
upset the president of the United States, it's rising oil prices.
And so my sense is that Israel is refraining from
hitting the oil the oilids in Iran because it doesn't
want to upset it's good friend, the United States, and
particularly it's our president. Also, one has to remember that
(09:10):
for every in round numbers, if you add ten dollars
to a barrel of oil, you're going to increase inflation
by thirty basis points plus or minus ten basis points,
somewhere between twenty and forty basis points, which is exactly
the opposite of what the President wants to hear. So
(09:32):
the muted response so far has indicated that the pieces
simply need to come together so that there won't be
inflation as a result of the of the oil. Now,
what should an investor do In the short run, You're
(09:56):
going to have to deal with the volatility, that's what
you have to do. You're going to have to just
stomach it. In the long run, there's been a lot
of talk about trades that would be made in the
defense industry, trades that could be done in oil, etc.
And if you're a short term trader, which most of
our listeners are not traders. There may be some opportunities
that are there, but even then I would caution about
(10:19):
the short run, with the volatility that's existing today. Look
at your portfolio, make sure that your asked that allocation
is correct. I know this is very boring stuff, but
on a long term basis, that's how people should be investing.
And trying to beat the system with short term gains
(10:40):
during cases of volatility simply doesn't usually come out in
a positive way. So don't do anything with your portfolio.
Don't panic, don't sell. For heaven's sakes, if there is
a further dip in the market and you have cash,
considered nibbling at those dips as they occur, as they
(11:04):
did on last Friday. So stay the course, you know, Stephen,
our listeners have heard me say that over and over again,
but in this case that's the best thing to do.
This too, shall pass, and hopefully the world will be
in a better place at the conclusion of this war
between Israel and Iran.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Right do you see with the oil price is going up? Well,
that reflected the gas stations also.
Speaker 4 (11:32):
Oh absolutely, and we really have already seen some increases
that occurred late last week. You know, the way it
works is when oil prices go up, gasoline prices go
up immediately, even though the gasoline that's in the system
(11:54):
is not the price that the oil that is today.
And then when oil price has come back down, prices
that the Selene pump take much longer to come, you know,
come back down. So they've got a good gig. You know,
they go up quickly and they go down slowly.
Speaker 3 (12:12):
So I guess also top top of mind also is
the Big Beautiful Bill. The Senates preparing changes to the
House passed by the Big Beautiful Bill, and the President
wantn't on his desk by July fourth. What do you
think some of the changes are going to be.
Speaker 4 (12:32):
Well, we're going to find out this afternoon exactly what
those changes are going to be. The Senate is prepared
to release its preliminary version of the bill. The things
that have generally been talked about and are likely to
be changed in a fairly substantial way will be the
(12:52):
State and Local Taxes initiative that's commonly referred to as
salt for a state and local taxes. It's been ten
thousand dollars per year, a cap that's existed since twenty seventeen.
In the House, they had proposed originally increasing that to
(13:15):
twenty thousand, but before they were able to pass it, it
was increased to forty thousand, and that's where it sits
in their bill. I would expect the Senate to come
back to the twenty thousand dollars level. That's my estimate
as to where they would they would be. I would
look for that kind of a change. Also that there
(13:35):
are Although a lot of people perceive medicare excuse me
Medicaid as a giveaway to people who are too lazy
to work and who might have immigrated here to the
United States, etc. It is also a very important program
and one that even Republican senators and some representatives are
(14:03):
very concerned about, and that the House cut too deeply
into into Medicaid. Everybody wants to see waste, fraud, and
abuse be eliminated from any system, and particularly medicaid, and
I think that that can be done. But to cut
as deeply into the program as was proposed by the House,
(14:26):
I think there will be some pretty significant pushback in
the in the in the Senate, I'd also expect that
the Senate might look at eliminating some of the provisions
or limiting the provisions around no taxation on tips and
over time, which frankly, as it relates to the tips,
(14:55):
I'm still convinced even that not all that tip income
gets reported the way it should. And in order to
take advantage of the no tip no tax on tips,
you'll have to report tips in the first place. And
if suddenly those tips are greater than what you've been,
you know, producing for all these years and you've been
(15:16):
in that same job, it's going to certainly.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Raise I think of that.
Speaker 4 (15:20):
Yes, So you know, if I was getting tip income
and I wasn't doing what I should be doing by
declaring it all, I'm not sure how much of it
I would declare, and it would look pretty silly if
I just declare up to the limit and then suddenly
I don't have any more tips after that. Right, those
(15:40):
kinds of provisions I think will change. If we're going
will we make it by July fourth? I think there's
a very low probability of that. Here. We're here, we're
sitting the middle of June, the sixteenth of July, so
we've got twenty days. The bill has to go through
all of the different houses, excuse me, all of the
(16:01):
different committees in the Senate that'll probably get done this week,
probably see the bill get to the floor of the
Senate over the weekend, maybe early next week for votes,
and it'll pass barely, just like it did in the House.
(16:23):
And then the two are going to have to sit
down and iron out their differences. And we just don't
see how it's possible for them to get it all
done between now and the fourth of July and get
it on the President's desk. Not saying it can't happen,
but the odds of it happening are really small.
Speaker 3 (16:39):
What about What do you think the Senate's going to
do with military cuts and social Security? Do you think
they'll leave it the way the Congress has done it.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
I think that as far as social Security is concerned,
it will it will not be it will not be
hurt in any way. The significant change that was proposed
about not taxing social security was scrapped in the House bill,
but they did give to seniors, which is an undefined
(17:14):
term in the bill. It's assumed to be sixty five
and above that they would get an extra deduction of
four thousand dollars per year, which would save the average
senior maybe in the neighborhood of seven hundred and eight
hundred dollars eight hundred dollars per year in taxes that
(17:34):
that might get dropped. But no changes to soel security
given the events of the past week particularly, but even
one could say the past few years, I don't see
significant cuts to the defense budget. It's just too important
(17:55):
to maintain their security.
Speaker 3 (17:57):
I agree to meet later this month. Any opportunity for
long anticipated rate cut, there's.
Speaker 4 (18:05):
Two chances, none and none at all.
Speaker 3 (18:10):
Uh I there's very few things that I feel absolutely
positive about in a world of uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (18:20):
But I feel pretty confident that there is nothing that
has occurred since the FED met in May that would
cause them to make a change in them and interest
rates at this meeting, and the likelihood that it will
occur at the next meeting is very small. About the
(18:43):
only thing economically, I don't see any reason for the
for the FED to move at this point that the
FED thinks it would move at this point. But if
this conflict between and war, if you wish to call
it that, between Iran and Israel were to significantly escalate,
and let's say that Aaran reaches a point of total
(19:08):
desperation and they decide to just throw everything they've got
wherever they can throw it in some type of a
hail Mary case and we're effective with it, which could
cause significant disruption to the world economy. That might move
the Fed to do something with the interest rates that
is beyond the economic reasons to do it, but in
(19:32):
this case, to make money flow a little more freely.
My hope is that doesn't happen because Auran capitulating and
throwing everything in a act of desperation cannot end well
for anybody.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
A lot of people are asking, do you think this
is political while they're not cutting rates?
Speaker 4 (19:56):
It's a coin with two heads on it, and and
the other coin that I have in my pocket has
two tails on it. You know, when you look at
the facts, you can make an argument that the Fed
should cut interest rates from an economic point of view.
You look at those same set of facts, steven, and
(20:17):
you can make an equally strong argument that they should
not at the moment. At the moment, we believe that
the Fed should stay put that from an economic standpoint,
there is no reason to cut the rates if we
see job weakness and more cuts than there are new
(20:40):
jobs being done. That would cause the FED from an
economic standpoint, to cut to cut rates the moment, we
don't see that. We're still one hundred and forty hundred
and fifty thousand new jobs every month. Translate that out,
that's one hundred and that's one point eight million new
jobs in the course of a year. So why would
(21:03):
you cut in the face of that? Steven and I
know we only got a little time left, and I
just want to make sure that everybody knows about our
offer for a complimentary one hour consultation. All they have
to do is give our office a call at seven
two seven four four one nine zero two two. That's
(21:23):
seven two seven or four to one nine zero two
two and just say you'd like to set up a
complimentary one hour consultation in our Clearwater or Tampa office
or by zoom uh and meet with one of our
certified financial planners. We'll be happy to set that up.
If you want to check up on us ahead of time,
(21:43):
go to provis dot com and that's p R O
V I S E dot com.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Ray, we certainly appreciate you. We're so glad we have
you twice a month. You'll be back again with us
in two weeks. We appreciate you and have a wonderful week.
Thanks so much.
Speaker 4 (22:04):
Ray, Take care, Steven and look forward to seeing you
in two weeks.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
And we'll be right back.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
Thanks for tuning in today to the Ask the Expert
Show on the W four CY radio and Talk for TV.
Tune in next week and every week to hear more
from our experts on personal injury, insurance, air condition repairs,
estate planning, medicare, and many other topics in the areas
of legal, health, financial and home improvement. See you next week.
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