5 Ways to Win Your Auction; Guest Rich Hribar from Sharp Football Analysis

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Auction Brief.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
They're to join these games or.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Not, taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,
and life.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
These all yours today.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
It depends on how much you want. And now you're
legal analyst and auction draft expert here to help you
dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Davenport, there are
full hearts.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
Hey, let's go play some Hey, everybody, welcome into the
Auction Brief. As the lady said, I'm your host and
fantasy football lawyer, Drew Davenport. Thank you so much for
joining us for the third Auction Brief episode of the summer.
We are taking you from twenty twenty four and the
mistakes and lessons we learned from last year all the

(00:54):
way up to your drafts the last couple of weekends
of August and early September. We are gonna get you ready,
and that is my sole goal here on the Auction Brief.
That's why I started the show and that's why I
picked the topic for today. Today's topic is going to
be called five Ways to win your auction. I know

(01:16):
in the first couple of episodes we didn't do a
lot of auction talk, but We're gonna dive into it
this week because I know that's why a lot of
you are here. I'm not ignoring that. I'm just trying
to hit everything because I believe the more well rounded
we are, the better we're gonna be at fantasy football,
and the more we're gonna win. I always talk about
stacking advantages. We're gonna stack some of those today. So

(01:37):
we're gonna do five Ways to Win your Auction, and
then we're gonna have rich Reebar from Warren Sharp Football
on for discussions with Drew. Rich is one of the smartest,
if not the smartest guy in the fantasy industry. So
love having rich on and hearing what he's got to say.
And hopefully we'll talk about the bidding war for Tony
Pollard last year at the King's Classic. Anyway, you're gonna

(01:58):
enjoy the conversation with rich Let me get the pre
stuff out of the way real quick, because I want
to get to the five ways to Win your auction
here quickly. We've got no legal update, nothing to report
since last week when Jordan Addison set his case for
a jury trial date, nothing on Rashie Rice, So we're
going to skip the legal update this week and get

(02:20):
right into the content. But don't forget you can follow
me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF on TikTok the
Fantasy Football Lawyer, as well as my Patreon network Fantasy
Football Lawyer as well. Don't forget that. If you feel
like you're not getting enough auction content here on the
auction brief, head on over to the Patreon It's less
than a Starbucks coffee. It's four bucks to get almost

(02:42):
solely auction focused content over there on the Patreon network.
I believe it's worth it. I hope you do as well.
And the other thing I'm going to start plugging now
for the rest of the summer is FJAY fantasy draft boards.
I've done it for the last two summers, but you know,
they're just a dream to work with, a really great
set up that gives me a nice little couple of

(03:03):
bucks every time somebody orders a draft board with my code,
but it gives you the benefit of ten percent off
of your order. We've changed the code for this year.
It's Auction twenty twenty five, so that's auction two zero
two five. Use that code and get ten percent off
your order. You know, I know, you can go on
Amazon and buy a draft board for twenty or thirty bucks.
I get that summer is even, you know, as cheap

(03:24):
as fifteen eighteen bucks. But these are quality draft boards.
It's for a ten team or twelve team league. It's
four or five bucks a person, and you are going
to love them. They're corrugated cardboards, so they stand up
on their own. I've been using FJA Fantasy draft boards
for as long as I can remember. They've been in
business over twenty years, and there's a reason for that.
So use my code auction twenty twenty five get five

(03:46):
bucks off. I believe in f CHA Fantasy draft boards,
so use that code and get your boards ordered. All right,
that's enough for now. I think we got to get
into the content. This week's topic is five ways to
win your auction. Let's do some auction.

Speaker 3 (04:02):
Talk auction talk.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
One of the things that's difficult about having a show
on your own, just me running the whole thing, no
production team know nothing, is that every week it becomes
a challenge to make sure that you're creating something that's
engaging for your audience. And so it's a creative process.
It's not a thing where you go ABC and you

(04:27):
come up with a conclusion. It's a creative process to
create something that I think everyone's going to like that's
going to be not only engaging and entertaining, but helpful
as well, because that's, of course, the whole goal is
to be helpful. So when I'm trying to come up
with today's topic, I was a little bit stumped in
the creative process because there's no definable point in time

(04:51):
at which I'm going to come up with and say, oh,
there's the perfect idea for the show today. So try
to take it back to my roots, what is it
that's going to help you the most? And then hit
me the other night and you're not going to believe it,
But I was driving home from a particularly rough night
at the poker table. I've not been playing a lot
lately because I've been on an epic live crater since

(05:15):
last spring. Yes, Folks, has gone on over a year
where I'm just getting absolutely killed on the tournament felt
and that's how it goes. You're going to have those downturns.
I don't play enough to play my way out of it,
and so go to play the other night and I
get into a series of hands that made me realize
that sometimes when you're scuffling, the best way to do

(05:37):
things is to get back to basics, get back to
the things that you know that are going to create
positive expected value in the shortest amount of time. There
are just things that are sometimes repeatable, and sometimes there
are things that we can just do as basic things
that we need to do. And I think the curse
of knowledge is something I talked about last week, and

(05:57):
that's something that I struggled with in the auction room
for a couple of years. I started to write this
ship last year, I believe, and me and Scott Pianowski
talked about that in episode one about how maybe it's
just a little bit of hubris the last couple of
years where we haven't prepared enough because we think that
we're good enough to go in there and dominate. And
I'm going to talk about the leak and give you

(06:20):
some concrete examples of when you don't go in prepared
enough and you just think you're good enough. So I'm
at the poker table the other night and I realized
that maybe I was doing some things that were suboptimal.
This is a really soft table and That's part of
the problem that I had, because soft tables are often

(06:41):
tables that are going to call you a lot, so
you got to get some cards. But I made a
really bad judgment call when somebody shoved all in, and
I should have called, and I had them dominated. But
then I've gotten a series of funny little pots where
I had an ace and an eight and my opponent
had a queen and an eight and the flop was
ten nine to seven, so we both flopped an open ender.

(07:04):
But of course the ace high is ahead unless we
hit the straight. We get it all in. All I
need is for the board to brick out, and instead
we both turned the straight, but I turned a flushtraw
with it, and I missed the flushtraw and we end
up chopping the pot. So I get it in as
a huge favorite. I chopped the pot. I'm kind of
like disgusted whatever. A little bit later, I ended up
getting it all in with and as a three to

(07:26):
one favorite ace eight to eight five. Some guy just
had a bunch of chips went crazy. I get it
in as a three to one favorite. I win that pot. Okay,
that sounds fun, right, But then I turn around and
end up getting a guy calling me with a pair
of threes pre flop on a huge pot where I
had ace king suited. I flop an ace and he
rivers a three. Whatever, it's a coin flip. When we

(07:48):
got it in, it was a coin flip. The threes
are ahead, blah blah blah. So I lose that coin flip,
and then I get down to my last few thousand
chips after losing that big pot, and some guy raises
my big blind. I don't have our many hips left,
so I ship it with Queen high, and I know
that his range is really wide, so I'm hoping we
have a coin flip. I'm lucky enough that he flips

(08:09):
up jack ten, so I'm actually ahead with my Queen high.
So I've got another coin flip. I flop a queen
and he hit a runner straight. Now again it's a
coin flip. But this is where I've been living on
the poker table for the last year and a half.
Now why am I telling you this? Because I have
come to the realization that not only am I not
playing optimal poker, but I'm not really thinking about the

(08:33):
ways that I have the advantage on the poker table.
Because I sit down and I'm like, God, if I
could just win a damn coin flip, I'm gonna win
some money. That may be true, but I made a
bad fold earlier in the tournament against somebody who I
thought was tight, but it apparently wasn't. And I'm not
sitting there grinding hard enough. I don't believe because it's
such a soft table and the players are so bad.

(08:54):
I'm just like, I'm going to beat these people, and
I'm not. Clearly I'm not. I'm struggling. That's not the
whole reason, but the point being, I got started thinking
about that at the poker table, and then on the
way home it hit me that that's what was happening
with my auction game a couple years ago. And actually
talking to all of you every week has made me

(09:16):
realize that there were leaks in my game that I
was developing simply by just thinking, Hey, I've already got this,
I'm nailing this, or hey, I'm good enough that my
edge is XYZ, and those slow little leaks, those things
that creep into your game start to then become your game.
And I think that's what's happened on the poker table.

(09:36):
I'm not totally blaming myself. Sometimes you just run bad
and I'm running bad. I'm good enough to win, but
maybe I could be winning more or blunting the force
of this downturn by playing better. And that's how I
came up with the topic for this week. I know
that was a long way to get there, but I
want you to understand why we're talking about five ways

(09:57):
to win your auction because I think these are things
that are repeatable and simple and can give you quick
resets of what you should be thinking about in an
auction room. Because last summer, actually the previous two summers,
I've spent a lot of time talking to you about
the little details and going through everything with the fine

(10:17):
tooth comb and saying, Okay, on nominations, you gotta have
this list, and you gotta do this, and you gotta
do this first, and this second and this third, and
then when you're in the last quarter of the draft,
you do this. And I think that can make you
think to yourself, Okay, I've got it all, but you
can't really think about it all. We need to zoom
out a little bit. I want to get back to
some basics, because that's where we're going to start to
jump off for the rest of the summer. So I

(10:38):
think these are repeatable things. Call this maybe the reverse manifesto,
if you will, not every detail, not every way to
win your auction, just with everything crammed into one episode,
but just five basic things. But I'm repackaging some previous
stuff because these are things that I thought about a
lot last summer and that I have begun to realize

(11:00):
are more and more important that I have these principles
in my head before I get down to the details.
These are definitely things that I need to work on myself.
And you know, as we all know, I'm very critical
of myself, and I've figured out that these are the
things I need to work on. I hope you enjoy
these five ways to win your auction. Remember that each

(11:22):
thing that you do, like I said earlier, stacks a
gain on top of another gain. I don't think you
can say, oh, one and two are good, but I
don't care about three and four, five, whatever. You have
to do them all because you stack little gains, little
positive expected value. We all know that I'm not going
to harp on that I think this is the fastest
way you can get better, but I want you to

(11:44):
remember something. Have you ever heard the phrase you can't
eat an elephant in one bite. You have to start somewhere,
and you have to start by being intentional about how
you're going to improve. And the way to do that
is to listen to these five things and tell yourself,
how is that going to translate for me in my
auction draft rooms or in fantasy football in general. Be intentional.

(12:07):
You can't eat the elephant in one bite. However, you
can by just by being intentional with your short term gains.
There is no rule that says short term gains automatically
lead to long term gains, all right, And that's really important,
and I think that's where a lot of people lose
the main plot, all right. People think that if they

(12:28):
do these little things here and there, they're going to
translate to long term gains. You could read about fantasy
football all summer long. But if you've read something and
then forget about it a week later, did it do
anything for you? No, because you weren't intentional about making
sure that you commit that knowledge to your memory. If
you don't learn something enough that you can use it

(12:51):
in August, then that short term gain never led to
a long term impact. That's what it means to be intentional.
And the mundane details that we go over every day
of the summer and we think to ourselves, hey, I'm
grinding out this summer. Those don't lead to long term
games if you're not intentional with what you do with
that knowledge at the moment. Getting the mundane stuff, the

(13:15):
simple stuff, right, is most of the ballgame. And that's
what we're going to talk about today with these five points.
That's most of the ballgame. I heard somebody talk about
this one time, not long ago, and forgive me if
I've told this story before, but it's a quick one.
The person said, you know, so many people get it wrong.
They when it comes to daily life, because daily life

(13:37):
is the whole thing. Yes we go on vacation, Yes
we go ride roller coasters. Yes we go play video
games at our buddy's house every once in a while.
That's the fun stuff. But if you're constantly doing the
mundane things wrong or hating your life when you're not
doing the fun stuff, then you're missing most of your life.

(14:01):
Everybody can be happy and fun and have a great
time on vacation. That's what it is. It's vacation. The
hard part is being happy and getting the things writing
your daily life when you're not on vacation. That's most
of the game. Most of life is when you're not
on vacation right, And most of winning at fantasy football

(14:22):
is mundane stuff getting the simple stuff right. And if
you don't get the simple stuff right, then you think
every day I'm making these little short term gains and
I'm getting there. No, you're not, because you have to
make them long term gains by being intentional with putting
them into practice in your actual draft. That comes from

(14:44):
writing stuff down, keeping a diary of thoughts. You'd be
amazed if you write something down in the middle of June,
looking at that in the middle of August being like,
what the hell was I thinking? There is no way
I should have been thinking that in the middle of June,
or something drastically changes at the end of July. So
keeping those things like a little diary or just keeping

(15:07):
stuff in your phone, little things to trigger whatever the
case may be, short term gains don't lead to long
term gains if you're not intentional about it. That's why
I believe these five ways to win your auction are
going to help you in your drafts. Okay, well that's

(15:31):
a long intro, but I want you to know where
I'm coming from in the creative process and where my
mind is when I start something like this, because that's
part of the game and that's part of why we
get gains from it and part of why it's positive
expected value. So Number one is what I like to call,
be a maniac. Be a maniac. And that's probably funny

(15:56):
to some of you listening, because the last thing I
am when I go into a auction draft room is
a maniac, and the last thing I am at a
poker table is a maniac. I'm conservative, I'm straightforward, but
I wanted to find maniac in a little bit of
a different way. And I want to tell you that
I think it's imperative that you be a maniac in

(16:17):
your draft room because that's how you win, and that's
how you put pressure on other people. Pressure is the
name of the game. We talked about that ad nauseum
last year in the summer before that. We wanted up
our games by putting more pressure on our opponents, and
being a maniac does that. But what do I mean
by being a maniac, Well, I mean that you have

(16:39):
to be constantly engaged in what's happening in front of you,
in using pressure to shape the auction the best that
you can. This is one of those mundane details that
you're gonna laugh when I say, be a maniac. But
you got to have a meticulous record keeping. Well, how's
that being a maniac because you got to know every
person's exact dollar amount at every single point in the draft.

(17:03):
Let me say it again, people get lazy. Part of
being just a dog in that draft room is knowing
what everybody has at all times. What positions do they
have open, what do they still need, how much money
do they have, how much do you have? How much
are they bidding? What's that doing to their max bid
going forward? What's that doing to their roster construction going forward?

(17:25):
Meticulous record keeping is how you get in there and
be a dog. And you need to be a charger. Okay,
this is something that they say in the surf community.
Be a charger. Be somebody who goes finds that huge
wave and takes off, whether it looks dangerous or scary
or not, charge that massive wave. You need to be

(17:45):
a charger in the draft room. Always be pushing towards
what you want. And that's going to be one of
my points about pushing towards our goals, but be pushing
towards what's going to help you. Bidding when you should,
stopping when you should, being unreadable in bidding and nominating,
always looking for cracks in people's games, being relentless by

(18:09):
pushing on those cracks, looking for people's taels, looking for
what they do. I've told you this before a million times.
You can tell what people are doing if you just
pay attention. That's what being a maniac's all about. I
want you to be all over that draft room. Just
think of it as somebody who's just like hyped up
on like red Bull and energy drinks. Maybe an eight ball. No,

(18:30):
don't do that, but you just need to be crazy
in that draft room and just be like on top
of everything. Okay, who's this guy? Does he want him?
Do I need him? What am I going to do?
I got a bid, now I'm gonna get that price
up there. Oh he should go for twenty eight at sixteen,
all right, seventeen eighteen, all right? Nineteen? Okay, then stop
a minute and then bid twenty four and then just
be all over the place, all over people, all the time.

(18:51):
Be a maniac in that draft room. You will put
pressure on other people. You'll frustrate them, You'll get them
hot under the collar, They'll make mistakes. The only way
to win in auction draft rooms is to be a maniac.
If you sit back and you're like, oh, this is
going to be fun today. I'm really going to have

(19:11):
a great time drafting my fantasy team today. No, go
in there like a caged animal. You remember the Muppet animal,
rah rah, Go into your draft room like freaking animal
from the Muppets and just bag on your drums and
go crazy for three hours. Okay, we're not gonna go

(19:32):
in there and do dumb things, do ill advised things,
do things for the sake of being crazy. But go
in there and be a maniac. Push it, push it,
push it, push it. Pressure, pressure, pressure. You cannot win
if you're not putting pressure on people. And the second
you get complacent and the second you get disengaged is
when you start to leak value. All right, let's go

(19:53):
on to number two. Number two is an interesting one,
but it's something I've been thinking a lot about. Pick
on on the bully number two is called pick on
the bully. What is a bully in an auction draft room.
Let me liken it to a table captain in a
poker game. You know, when you sit down at a
poker table and there's a person at the table who's

(20:14):
just going crazy. They want to run the table or
the tournament starts and on the first hand they raise
or they rebind, they sit back down, they raise. People
who do that kind of thing they want to run
the table, They want to be the captain of the table.
And I had this conversation with Scott in episode one
again about being a little too caught up and trying

(20:36):
to be that guy myself. I don't want to be
a bully, but I want to have control, and I
got a little too caught up in that. You want
to have money, but you can't be too focused on that.
You got to be focused on what you're doing. And
then if that is a byproduct of it, that's a
good byproduct, and that's something we want to shoot for.
But oftentimes, if you're doing what you're doing and you're

(20:57):
in your zone and you're in there crushing that draft
for room, there's going to be somebody who emerges as
a bully or who wants to be a bully. You'll
recognize them right away. They're just throwing money around. They're
buying that first player for fifty eight dollars when he
should be for forty nine. They're just going crazy. You'll
see that bully. That bully sometimes will actually be a

(21:20):
fairly decent player who doesn't spend all their money right away,
and they're going to try to control that draft. You
have to pick on that person. You cannot let that
draft get out of control while that person's in there
doing whatever they want. Prices are going to be higher,
that's great. If that person's like bitting people up, let them,
that's great. But you want to pick on that person

(21:41):
because that person's going to be a problem for you later.
And I'm going to get to point number five where
I talk about, hey, not everything's about you, but in
this situation, making sure that you control the bully is
making sure that you have a semblance of control of
the draft itself. You can't let that person run wild.
When I talk about poker all the time, one of

(22:01):
the guys that I think about as a bully, and
we all know his name, is phil Helmuth Helm youth
is such a good player. He's an amazing player, but
he pisses people off. He makes people mad at the
poker table and they come after him for it. Now
he's usually going to get it in ahead and be
a big favorite and then lose. But he is the
kind of person who makes everyone mad, makes everyone want

(22:23):
to come at him. And we want to be in control,
but we don't want to be a bully. We want
to run the room, but we want to make people
feel good while we're doing it. Oh, hey, nice job,
nice buy on that player. Oh you bid me up
on that one. I really wanted him. You want to
be nice, You want to be making jokes. You want
to be the fun guy while you're also controlling the room.

(22:45):
And if somebody else is the bully, then you need
to pick on them until you get some control back.
Well what does that mean? Well, are they waiting on
a quarterback, waiting on a tight end? Nominate those positions
go right for that person. Don't worry about what else
is going on, right for them, because if that thing
spirals out of control and you're being thrown about in

(23:06):
the back of the boat while they're driving, you're gonna
lose control of the entire draft, and it's not going
to turn out how you want. What are other ways
we can pick on the bully? Well, stick them if
they're trying to bully you with their money, stick them,
make them pay some money, even if it's too cheap.
Let's say there's a player you kind of want and
it's too cheap to let them go. Just let them
go because they know, Oh no, I shouldn't pick on

(23:28):
that person. I'm gonna get stuck. You waste took some
of their money. Stick them, Try bend them up. When
you know that you can bid them up for a
dollar or two. Aim your nominations at them, be focused
on them until you've got them under control. I don't
often advocate this at a poker table because it's much
harder to do. I let them go wild. I try

(23:50):
to pick up a hand and take a bit of
chunk out of their stack, and they'll stay away from me.
But that's a little bit what we're doing in an
auction draft for them too. But it's a little bit easier,
it's less risky. In a poke tournament. You're risking the
only thing you have, which is your chips. Yeah, you
can bid them up and risk some of your salary
cap money. But for the most part, there are moves
that you can make where you can pick on the bully,

(24:11):
aim at their weaknesses on their roster that you know
they still need, try to bid them up if you can.
But you got to pick on the bully, all right,
That's a simple one. And just remember when we get
that control or when it starts working for us, don't
invite challenges to you by then starting to act like that. Instead,

(24:32):
you want to play the good guy. You want to
be the good guy, So pick on the bully. Number three,
relentlessly pursue your goals. Your goals. This goes back to control.
In the draft room, there aren't many things you can control,
and in point five I'm going to talk about that
a little bit more. But I've had a problem with

(24:54):
a little bit of complacency myself and these auctions, and
that's why this point is in today's show. You must
relentlessly pursue what your plan is. We've talked about this
a lot in the past, but just briefly, that plan
should be Number One. You should have your tier sheets
where you have players put into different tiers. Similarly, situated

(25:17):
players that are going to have similar price points. During
an auction, have your tiers, have your par sheet about
what you want to spend on each individual position, maybe
have a couple par sheets. And then early in the draft,
you really want to nominate some of the players that
are going to send your draft off in one direction
or another. And then you're going to follow the flow

(25:38):
of the draft to lock down players that you know
are going to be the cornerstone of your roster or
the cornerstone of your auction strategy. Follow that flow and
do your best to control that river. We're never going
to be able to completely control the river with perfect riverbanks,
but we can sort of guide it down where we

(26:01):
wanted to go. But if we're complacent, we lose that ability.
And that complacency comes in the form of, oh, well,
you know, I just I nominated this guy because I
couldn't really think of anybody, Or oh well, that was
going a little bit too cheap, but I didn't want
to bid, or I missed the bid because I was
looking up stats on this other player, or I was
checking my phone when the auctioneer was saying going once,

(26:23):
going twice, and I didn't realize it was at seventeen
bucks and I would have been eighteen. Those are dumb
ass mistakes. Okay, we can avoid those mistakes. That's simple,
repeatable stuff, and relentlessly pursuing our goals means going forward
in the draft the way that we want and being

(26:44):
critical in the moments when we make a mistake. We
have to understand that oftentimes we're going to undersell the
importance of some of the leaks in our game. We're
going to think to ourselves, hey, I still got a
pretty good team. I did all right, But that's under
selling what the leaks are in your game sometimes because

(27:04):
you didn't work hard enough for drive hard enough towards
what you wanted to accomplish. Here's a perfect example, and
this is a concrete example that I think is going
to help you because I've been harping on this for
a couple of summers now that sometimes there's leaks in
our game that we don't realize are that big of
a deal, but it really just erodes the overall talent

(27:26):
of the roster. And so I want to give you
a concrete example of this. Let's say that we're in
a room where we know that we're going to get
reasonable value on running backs. So I love to spend
money on wide receivers. But let's say that this room
loves wide receivers so much, we know we're going to
get some value at running back. So our plan going
into the draft is we're going to get a nice,

(27:46):
solid RB one and a high end RB two and
we're just going to go value hunting at that RB
two spot, and we're going to spend a little bit
of money there. There's plenty of RB twos left. When
Alvin Kamara comes up for a bit, and Alvin Kamara
is going a little bit too cheap, Unfortunately, you're not
engaged enough with your goals and you're not thinking to yourself,

(28:06):
oh hey, this is one of those RB twos that
I need to be paying attention to because I thought
I was going to find value at this position. You're
doing whatever. You're getting a drink, you're having a snack,
you're looking up something else, you're screwing around with a
guy next to you, whatever the case may be. If
you're not locked in at that moment when Alvin Kamara
comes up, a couple things could happen. Number one, you

(28:28):
could actually get Kamara cheaper than you thought, or number two.
Let's say you don't really care about Kamara that much.
But you have to understand when you talk about relentlessly
pursuing your goals, what was one of your goals coming
into the draft. Well, it was to get a reasonably
priced RB two because you knew you'd find value there. Okay,
well that's exactly what you should be paying attention to

(28:49):
when an RB two comes up. So I don't know
why you wouldn't be engaged at this point, But let's
say you don't really like Kamara that much. You have
your eye on a couple other guys that you think
are going to be better prospects. So what you need
to be doing is bidding up Camara as much as
you can so that the competition with another player for
an RB two goes down a little bit. You need

(29:09):
to bid up Kamara enough that you feel comfortable letting
him go and then going after your target. So let's
say that you're not engaged enough and that you think
Camara should go for twenty two bucks and he ends
up going for sixteen because you're not thinking about it
or you're not locked in enough to say, hey, I
need to be going to seventeen, or you think to yourself, hey,

(29:29):
I'm just a little bit scared. I don't want to
get stuck with him. I'd rather have this other player.
So he goes for sixteen bucks. Now you've left six
dollars on the table in that draft room that should
have been spent. This has a waterfall effect. I promise
you there's a cascade effect from this, because then later
in the auction James Cook comes up, and that's your

(29:52):
really the target that you want. This is a guy.
I'm using it as an example because I love Cook's price.
Right now, he's RB fourteen, I believe. So later on
James Cook comes up, that extra six dollars in the
auction room could definitely matter when it comes to Cook.
Maybe that other player says, hey, I got Camara so cheap,
I'm gonna bid on Cook. And now maybe you don't

(30:12):
lose Cook. Maybe you still get him, but you get
him for more money than you wanted to spend. So
it's not a lot, but it's a few dollars more.
Now combine those two errors. You made a six dollar
error on the first player, or four to five dollars,
because you would have got him up there around twenty
before you let him go, and then you made a
couple dollar error on this player. And let's say that

(30:34):
you get Cooke and you spend a little bit more money,
or let's say you get out bid for Cook and
you say, who cares, there's plenty of other guys, And
then what ends up happening is those other guys come
up and they go for too much money because now
there's some scarcity in play. Do you see the cascading
of events here? You made the first mistake with Kamara.
Not only was the money a problem, but then Cook

(30:57):
came up next, and that's who you really wanted. You
either had to pay too much or you let him
go and thought, I'm going to get one of these
other guys. Now there's more scarcity. Now the prices go
even higher. You have screwed yourself with a simple moment
where you were disengaged. You lost the player that you
either should have bid up or got, and then this

(31:19):
domino effect happens, and I'm here to tell you unfortunately
that's not where it ends. So you end up landing
Joe Mixon, and you end up landing him for a
relatively decent price. It's about what you wanted to pay
for Cook, but you ended up landing Joe Mixon instead.
Now he's RB nineteen right now in ADP, Cook is
RB fourteen, So you end up spending this money. You

(31:42):
could have saved money on mixing had you called him
out and gotten him, or had you gotten him for cheaper,
or had you gotten camera for cheaper. So now you've
paid a little bit more money for a little bit
worse player. And you see how the dominoes continue to fall,
because then later in the auction going for your wide
receiver three, other people have more money and you don't

(32:05):
have as much money, and you have either an inferior
player or you paid too much for Cook. One of
the two happens. Now, wide receiver twenty seven on your
team becomes wide receiver thirty two. The difference is Jamison
Williams are Calvin Ridley. Now I'm not here to tell
you that I don't want to argue about their value.
Right now, the ADP is that Williams is wide receiver

(32:27):
twenty four and Ridley is wide receiver thirty three. It
does not take a lot to separate you from wide
receiver twenty four and wide receiver thirty three in auction price.
So let's go through that horrible cascading of events that
happened because you weren't engaged, that you weren't pushing relentlessly
towards a very simple goal. And this all sounds so complicated,

(32:49):
but I promise it's not, and that's why I put
it on the list. If you're just always pushing towards
your goal, you won't make this mistake. But the first
mistake was you weren't locked in enough on Kamara. He
went too cheap, and then you tried to get Cooke
and you either spent too much money or you got
out bid. Let's say you got out bid and then
you paid almost as much as you would for Cook,
you paid that for mix and instead. And then later

(33:12):
on Jamison Williams slips through your fingers and you have
to settle for Calvin Ridley. Now, how does it look
when you come out of the draft. And this is
why I want to give you the illustration, because I'm
always talking about the small leaks that lead to the
erosion of your roster. You say, yeah, what does that
really mean? Well, this is a perfect example. If you
leave the draft and you have James Cook and Jamison

(33:34):
Williams as your RB two and your wide receiver three.
You crushed it because you got Williams, who is actually
being drafted as a low end wide receiver two. You
got him in your three hole, and you got Cook,
who's a high end RB two almost an RB one
and can perform like an RB one. You got both
of those guys as you're two and three versus getting
two guys that are at the bottom of the territory

(33:56):
that we're talking about. That's a massive difference. You leave
the draft and you're like, hey, you know, I got
Covered Ridley and Joe Mixon, Like those players are fine,
and I'm not here to tell you they're bad, And
I'm not even here to tell you that one cannot
perform the other. All I'm telling you is this that
if you're trying to get the maximum value for your team,
that's how the erosion happens. And that's a big difference.

(34:18):
So you got to be honest with yourself when you
leave an auction and you get that kind of unsettling,
uneasy feeling like what happened here. I ended up with
Mixing and Ridley when that's not who I wanted. That's
the erosion we're talking about, and that cascading of events,
that domino effect is what happens when you take your
eye off the ball, when you're not being that maniac

(34:39):
and pushing relentlessly toward your goals. That's what happens when
you take your eye off the ball, and you can't
let it happen. Ever, in an auction draft room, maybe
when a kicker's up forbid, and that's about it. You
cannot let that happen. You must be pushing relentlessly towards
your goals. That's number three, number four. I know I

(35:01):
always say this, but number four is a quick one
and an easy one, and I call it Harden your heart.
Harden your heart. Why do I say that? Well, I
say this partially is a lesson for me, but there's
a lot of people out there like me, a little
bit soft hearted. I'm an mpath I want to be liked.
Who doesn't want to be liked? And oftentimes you're going

(35:23):
to find yourself in an auction draft room where other
people in that room are your friends, they're your family.
They are people that you really like, maybe even love,
and you don't want to be mean to them. You
don't want to be rude to them, and so sometimes
it feels a little bit like you're doing things that
you don't want to do. But I want you to

(35:43):
turn that part of your brain off, okay, because I've
found that in the moments when I'm at the poker table,
we're in the auction draft room, and I have a
little bit of empathy, or I have a little bit
of thought of like oh should I do this or that,
it always backfires. And I'm not here to tell you
to be mean. I'm here to tell you to play
the game. And the thing you have to tell yourself,

(36:05):
the simple switch you have to flick when you walk
into that draft room or log into that room, is
this is a game, and I'm going to play the game.
There was a couple of years ago where there was
a player that had the same first initial and last
name who was not going to be drafted as a
top player. I can't remember who it was. It's going

(36:27):
to kill me, but people were doing this dumb thing
where they would nominate the crappy player, and if you
weren't paying attention, you would buy this crappy player for
too much money instead of the real player. That's just
cheating and cheap and stupid. That's not how we play
the game. We play the game by playing the game,
not by being cheap or slimy or weird. So there's

(36:48):
nothing in your brain or your heart that has to
feel bad about that. Okay, if somebody doesn't have their quarterback,
you already have your starter. And let's say Jalen Hurts
comes up and he stops at eleven dollars and you
say twelve. You know what you're going to hear in
that room. Oh, come on, you already have your quarterback.
What do you want another quarterback? Yeah, for twelve dollars?
I do for Jalen Hurts for twelve dollars, Yes, I do.

(37:13):
And I'm sorry. I'm just not going to let you
get that good of a deal. That's playing the game.
That person can stick you. And then you have two
starting quarterbacks and you wasted money on a second quarterback.
That's my problem. You have to harden your heart against
sometimes people that you like or the way you want
to be as a person. This is a game, you know.

(37:33):
I always laugh about that with like Big Brother and
Survivor me and my wife are big fans and they
go on there and they're like, I'm not going to lie.
It's saying, bro, that's the game. Lying to people and
trying to win. That doesn't make you a liar. That's
part of the game. One of the rules of the
game is you can lie. Okay. You know a couple
of years ago, I had Josh Allen in my keeper

(37:53):
league and Stefan Diggs came up, and everybody knew that
I wanted Digs to pair with Alan and they bid
me up. You know, I have two choices there, and
let them bid me up and keep going, or I
can just stick them. That's my problem, and those are
things that people can use against me. I don't have
a problem with that. That's part of the game. That
is the game. The game is brinksmanship. Hey, how high

(38:14):
are you going to go? When I know you're bidding
me up? You know that I know that you're bidding
me up. I know that, you know that, we know that.
We all know that. You know that I know that
we know. Okay, that's the game. Hard in your heart, Okay,
play the game, play your advantages. If you know the
guy in the room is an Ohio State fan. Bid
him up on Jackson Smith and Jigba. If you know

(38:37):
the guy in the room is a Bengals fan, bid
him up on Jamar Chase. My brother won my home
league last year with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. He
got both guys too cheap. He's a big Bengals fan.
We should have bit him up. Come on, like, what
are we doing here? Harden your heart and be a killer.
You cannot crush your auction draft room. If you're going
to be soft, be a maniac, relentlessly, pursue your goals.

(39:00):
Pick on the bully hard in your heart. And the
fifth one is it's not about you. I have to
tell my kids this all the time. It's not about
you all the time. Okay, sometimes it's about you. Actually
most days are about you, But it's not always about you.
And how does that apply in our auction draft room?
I referenced this earlier in the show. But so much

(39:22):
of auction rooms are not in your control. And you've
heard me say it a million times, But control what
you can control with your nominations, with your bidding, with
how you're prepared, all that stuff, But more often than not,
the things going on in the auction room are not
about you. Okay, So the quicker you realize that, the
easier it is to read what's going on in the room,

(39:44):
because I'm here to tell you that ninety eight percent
of the players in that auction room are way more
focused on their teams and what they're doing than you.
Most of the time, they're not nominating somebody just to
screw you. Yes, that happens sometimes, But let me say
like this, When I'm at a poker table and I'm
playing a bad player, you know what I don't do.

(40:06):
I don't bluff. Why because bad players always think you're bluffing.
They always think you're bluffing. You know what, When I
get a pair of aces at a bad table, I
make a huge race, and then I make a huge
bet on the flop, and then I make a huge
bet on the turn, and like, I'm just trying to
get them out of the damn pot because I have
a pair of aces that I want to win the pot.

(40:28):
Bad players think, oh, they're trying to run me over.
He's got nothing and he's just betting like crazy. No,
I'm betting like crazy because I have a really good
hand and I either want you to give me money
or get out of my pot. Inexperienced or bad players
one or the other. Inexperienced or bad players always think
you're trying to pull one over on them. They always

(40:48):
think you're being tricky in an auction draft room. This
is gonna sound funny, but what people are doing the
thing is usually the thing. Okay, the things usually thing.
They need a tight end, they nominate one, they probably
want them. They need a quarterback, they're bidding on one,
they probably want them. The thing's usually the thing. The

(41:09):
only time that you want to go against this general
idea is when you have evidence that they are tricky
or evidence that they're different. That's where coming That's where
paying attention comes into play. That's where relentlessly pursuing your goals,
being a maniac, always being engaged, that's where it's going

(41:30):
to pay dividends. Because the only time that you should
be thinking about, hey, this person's doing this to me,
or this person's doing this purposely, so I'll spend more
money is when you have evidence that that's the kind
of player that they are. Okay, so I want your
general rule, I want your general baseline to be the
thing is the thing. Okay, if they're bidding, they want

(41:52):
the player. If they're not, they don't. If they nomin them,
they want them. If they didn't, they don't. Okay, unless
they're being tricky us play it for face value. It's
not always about you. When you have the chance to
control things, then control them. Otherwise it's probably not about you.
So do what you need to do to pursue your

(42:13):
goals because that's your self interest. Your self interest isn't
sitting in there like, how are they screwing me? How
am I getting bent over here? Okay, that's not what
an auction room is. That's not how we win. We
don't go in there with like, you know, eyes that
are like half closed, like ooh, what's that guy doing
across the room. That's not what you do. Okay, that's

(42:35):
what people think it is. That's not what it is.
It's playing straight forward ABC. This is how we're gonna win,
and these are the ways we're gonna win. These five
ways to win your auction are simple, repeatable steps that
you can do in every auction. You don't have to
know any of the finer points of anything to take
these five things into your auction. This summer. Be a maniac.

(42:57):
Always be pressing, pressing, pressing. Pick on the bully. Make
sure they don't get too much control of the room.
You want to be the bully, but you want to
do it nicely. You want to have control, and you
want to relentlessly pursue your goals. Harden your heart and
play the game. And remember it's not always about you.
You want to pursue your goals with the understanding of

(43:20):
the entire process that's happening around you, and that most
of the time it's something that's out of your control,
and you do the little things you can to control it.
All right, Well, those are my five ways to win
your auction. I have looked into myself and thought about
what I did well last summer and what things I
learned last summer, And I've thought about the last two

(43:42):
or three years, and I tried to give the most
general bent on things that are going to help you
win right away in your auction draft rooms. All right,
that's going to do it for my five ways to
win your auction. What do you say we'd get on
to rich Reebar and make ourselves that much smarter. Let's
ask him about some situations that we're trying to parse
right now and see what Rich has to say on

(44:04):
this week's Discussions with Drew.

Speaker 3 (44:08):
Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the
brightest minds in the fantasy industry.

Speaker 2 (44:15):
Welcome into this week's Discussions with Drew. I have with
us a guest that I always like having on the
show and occasionally taking a few bucks off of him
at a poker table maybe something like that, although recently
that hasn't been how it's gone. But anyway, my good
friend Rich ree Bar from Sharp Football Analysis also happens
to be one of the best fantasy analysts, if not

(44:36):
the best. That's why we have him on because he
is a fantastic resource for you in your drafts this summer.
Welcome to the show, Rich, Thanks for doing it for us.
I know you're gonna have a lot of interesting stuff
to say today.

Speaker 1 (44:49):
I hope, so, you know, and if you do want
to play poker against you, I'm not a good poker player,
so I just like to play.

Speaker 2 (44:55):
You know.

Speaker 1 (44:55):
I'm one of those people that just like you know,
that gets caught up. It's like, oh, this is only
like a twenty dollars game, Like I'm just gonna have
fun and play like super loose and have fun. And
I know everyone hates that, well you know what, you
made it, especially because you got to play rock cards.

Speaker 2 (45:09):
I know how to play poker, but I got my
ass kicked last time sitting at the table with you guys,
and I just decided I wasn't rebuying and I sat
down the couch and just kept drinking because it was
not an impressive performance from your boy here. But hey,
you know, do.

Speaker 1 (45:23):
You think that there's a lot of correlation to that
and almost fantasy football, Like my grandma could beat me
in a fantasy football league like a like one off
in a one off league, like she can get a
magazine or whatever, get the right picks and the luck
boxing to beat me into a fantasy league. But she's
not gonna beat me over one hundred fantasy leagues, like
I'm gonna have that j over. And that's how I
feel like it is with us and cards, Like I
might have got you that one time, but if we

(45:44):
said the one hundred times, I think that you'll have
some of my money.

Speaker 2 (45:48):
Yeah, yeah, that's that's a great point. And my son,
it's played fantasy last year for the second time ever.
The first year he was just kind of really learning
how to do it. Last year he won the title.
Oh yeah, so you know that's how it goes. He's
he's a living testament to that. But let's try to
prepare people as much as possible to eliminate some of

(46:08):
that variants I want to get. First of all, I
want to get your socials out there. So where can
people find you on socials? And also where can they
find your work? I said, Sharp Football Analysis, but let
people know where they can find your stuff.

Speaker 1 (46:22):
Yeah, thanks, thanks for at sharpoopleanalysis dot com. That's where
we're you know, I'll be working on the draft kit.
You're really downhill after the fourth of July, so we
have a lot planned. I just finished up my entries
for the twenty twenty five preview book that Warren puts out,
so I've got that knocked out of the way now.
It's like full fantasy downhill like the rest of the summer.

Speaker 2 (46:40):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (46:40):
At Lord Reebs at Twitter, Lord Reebs at the on
the Blue Sky site, which is kind of slowed down,
you know after that, which we kind of thought it might,
but you know, hey, there's still some people over there
we'll see see what picks up. Check out the YouTube
all that other stuff you know it is.

Speaker 2 (46:55):
Yeah, sure do. And if you're looking for him on Twitter,
just stop when you see Zach Morris on an old
cell phone. That is your man right here.

Speaker 1 (47:03):
And this guy is also Zach Morris. But it's asked
Jim Harbaugh if anyone's noticed that.

Speaker 2 (47:09):
I haven't, but I need to check that out. So
Zach Morris callback is just just slays me every time
I see him on the phone. Uh So, okay, Yeah,
check out Rich's work. I actually downloaded. I haven't ordered
the full book, but I downloaded the little free chapter
that he gave out on the Detroit Lions. It was excellent.

(47:29):
Some stuff I really didn't know about their twelve personnel usage,
their play action usage, stuff like that. It was really interesting.
So I'm gonna go ahead and order that book. You guys,
go check that out. Okay. Well, the thing that I'm
going to ask you that absolutely nobody out there cares about,
but I do. You're heading back to Canton.

Speaker 1 (47:47):
Yeah, you know, being in Ohio, it's not like an obligation.
So when everyone comes to you, especially being in Ohio,
because no one comes to Hawaii, Ohio. It's like, hey,
if everyone's coming here, I gotta be there. So unless
like kids are doing something important, I have something like
really family oriented that's going to pull me away, I'll
always be there.

Speaker 2 (48:06):
Excellent, excellent. Looking forward to a hang in Canton the
first weekend of August. Everyone should get out there and
come hang out with us. But let's get the pleasant
trees behind us. Let's get down to business. Because there's
a lot of things that I was making up this
show sheet, and there's a lot of things that just
kept popping into my head, like, oh, I wonder what
Richard thinks about this? And I always say this is

(48:27):
one of my favorite parts of having a show is
that I just get to pick the brain of smart people.
Because there's things that I struggle with right now when
I'm trying to figure out what I'm doing in drafts.
I know we got a couple months, but there's some
things that I constantly wonder, am I right about this?
And some of those things are offenses in general, because

(48:47):
every summer we have this idea in our head like, oh,
this offense is going to be terrible or this offense
is going to be really good. And we kind of
have these assumptions. I'm not sure those assumptions are always correct.
Case in point a couple of years ago with you know,
Gino Smith and the Seahawks his first year he was starting.
So there's sometimes diamonds in the rough there, there's sometimes
they just are what they are. But I want to

(49:09):
lead off with the Detroit Lions because I think that
Dan Campbell, he really wants to run the ball. He
loves running the ball. They do it well, especially near
the goal line. But last year, you know, they had
about fourteen billion injuries on the defense, and they also
lose Ben Johnson. Is that going to shift how the
Detroit Lions look this year? Are we concerned about losing Johnson?

(49:32):
Number one? But also do we think that if their
defense plays better, that their natural tendency is going to
be to pull back in the passing game.

Speaker 1 (49:39):
I think that you have to be a little bit
concerned about a few things for the Lions, like, well, one,
we're paying for a pocket passer, you know, coming off
of a career year, which is like always one of
the toughest things to do in fantasy football. And then
understanding the trickle down of that effect because Lions have
a lot of pieces attached to this offense. That one
prop up Jared Goff but then wayevery that the intersection

(50:00):
of everything kind of played out last year like you
alluded to, you know, David Montgomery been missing kind of
like the final month and what happened with Jamiir Gibbs,
right and him exploding for that like the big RB
one finish in terms of winning fantasy leagues, and you
know what it did for you know, Jameson Williams, what
it did for Sam Laporta. You know, I'm on Ross
State Brown. There's all this trickle down. You lose Ben Johnson,
Frank ragnow retires, which is a big deal, right, Like,

(50:22):
this is a top five center the past three years
in terms of run blocking and overall. You know grade,
you know, if you want to do a grain assault,
you know how you feel about pffs. This is one
of the best centers in the league. And you're losing
him off and offensive line. It's like another key piece.
It's just another variable to put in. And this is
a team that went that way over exceeded expectations last year.
They scored eighteen touchdowns over expectation. As an offense, So

(50:43):
we're going to just have some pull down, you know,
Jared Goff, Like I said, career marks and completion rate
through thirty seven passing touchdowns, like, I don't think we
can count on that to happen again. He can still
manufacture like a high ypa yards for pass attempt because
of the way the offense is structured. But again, a
lot of variables and play here, a lot of moving parts.
We would expect some kind of regress, natural regression, some recoil.

(51:05):
And then remember last year at this time, everyone was
telling you about like, oh, the Lions play all these
games indoors, they have all this like this great schedule,
and it did kind of play out that way. And
then this year the schedule is significantly harder. They face
a lot more defenses, they go on the road and
face a lot more tougher opponents. So again, a lot
of variables in play here. I don't think you can
go wrong with guys like I'm on Ross Brown and

(51:26):
Jamior Gibbs, but I do find myself around like their ADP,
liking kind of some more players more than them. Jamiir
Gibbs is just really tough, right because we know the
talent is there for him to be in RB one
and potentially the RB one overall. You're not going broke
with that pick. But he really can't be the RB
one overall for a full season unless David Montgomery isn't there,
And like that's what makes him such a tough pick

(51:47):
in the first round, Like he feels like a safety pick,
Like you're you're picking him and you're like, I'm fine
with this, Like he you know, he's been like a
top eight RB in points per game, But when you're
factoring in that Dave Montgurray is time each season. If
Dave Montgomery doesn't miss time, you're only getting kind of
a guy. It's like more of a floor based RB one.
Sixteen point nine PPR points per game in the game's
David Montgomery plays that is still solid, but then you

(52:10):
get you're getting that twenty eight points per game. That
PPR points a game. We're basically as Christian McCaffery almost
with Danian Tomlinson like when he misses, So that contingency
value is really baked into his ADP as a mid
first round pick. And we've got kind of better running
backs in the first round this year than I think
what we had last year at this point. Remember last
year it was basically just CMC at one before anyone
understood the injury, and a lot of people didn't, you know,

(52:32):
because coming into that Monday night game to open the season.
But now we have Saquon, we have Jon Robinson mixed
in there, Ashton Janet moving up, Derrick Henry who just
will not go away, right, Like Derrick Henry keeps somehow
it gets undervalued. So I think Jami or Gibbs why
I really like him. I just don't find myself often
clicking him because I'd say, like, what's the path room
to be the RB one overall? And you need Dave

(52:53):
Montgomery to like largely miss a chunk of the season.

Speaker 2 (52:56):
Yeah, you said a couple of things there that I
want to latch onto. The first of eighteen touchdowns over expected,
that's a wild stat So that's I think he said
eighteen right, yeah, eighteen Yeah, Yeah, that's a huge that's
a huge number. But with respect to Gibbs and Montgomery,
I love the comment because Number one, I've been a
little surprised at how far Montgomery is falling because I

(53:19):
think some people think, hey, those touchdowns are not sustainable.
I'm not interested. But as a guy who had a
lot of Montgomery last year, I can tell you if
I was a Gibbs owner, I would have been tilting
my face off watching them throw the checkdowns to Montgomery.
But that was all part of Ben Johnson's thing, like, Hey,
we're going to throw the ball to either guy. Everyone
needs to be prepared for this. I don't know if

(53:40):
that continues this year or not. There's certainly a lot
of unease around Montgomery, and then you mentioned the obvious
reasons that we could be uneasy about Jamior Gibbs as well.
So it's a fascinating situation with a ton of variables.
Thank you for breaking that down. It's going to be
really interesting to see what develops with their play calling
and the new offense coordinator. Let's talk about another offense

(54:03):
that's in a lot of flux out in Las Vegas.
The afore mentioned Gino Smith comes to save the day.
I can't say that without laughing. Sorry, be serious. Gino
Smith comes in. He's obviously a better situation at quarterback
than they had last year. But what do we really

(54:23):
give the Las Vegas offense as far as credit for
being that improved from last year. Of course, we still
have brock Bowers there. Now they get the the what
we believe will be the belcow rookie running back. Can
we believe in Gente in the first round? Are you
buying into that? How do you feel about the Vegas
offense with Gino Smith and all the changes, This is.

Speaker 1 (54:46):
Definitely going to be a team that's going to be
significantly more competitive. And they were competitive these past like
two years with bad quarterback playing, bad coaching. They've had
they had spouts where they're like, this team's competent if
they can just get rid of Antonio Pearson, changed the quarterback,
bring in Pete who they throw a bunch of money
to get Chip Kelly out of Ohio State, I think's
the highest paid offensive coordinator already this season they bring

(55:08):
Geno Smith over. So they're definitely gonna be a lot
more competitive. And you look at their quarterback situation last year,
I mean, they were twenty seventh in the NFL and
quarterback rating, they're twenty sixth in EPA per drop back,
twenty ninth and success rate they were at the bottom
of league and on target rate. So do you bring
in Gino Smith, who's been one of the most efficient
passers in terms of short yardage passing and especially when

(55:29):
kept clean. You know, you look at he's got some
of the most significant splits in the NFL from a
clean pocket versus not in the NFL. So that's gonna
be a big deal. The one thing is that when
you look at this team from a fantasy stance, like
brock Bauer is already expensive, Ashton Janet already expensive. You've
got Jacoby Myers kind of floating around. It's potentially like
another undervalued guy like Jacoby Myers is weird because we

(55:50):
always know he's undervalue, but like you're also not always
scared of Jacoby Myers, like dragging you to the shadow realm,
you know, And he's like the type of real life
player where NFL coaches and NFL organizations like aren't scared
and move on from either. So like we never really
kind of fear that type of player. We don't know
what Jack besh is going to do, but this is
a team I would expect to be significantly more balanced
than they were last year and have significantly fewer dropbacks.

(56:11):
Now they will trade some of that loss and volume
for efficiency, like We're gonna get a lot more on
target throws for a guy like brock Bowers. But this
was the worst run game and almost NFL history, Like
it's literally from an EPA stance, like they were one
of the worst rushing teams that ever happened. Last year
they were dead last and EPA rush is just their
running back runs dead last and success rate, dead lasting

(56:32):
rate of runs to go for a first dot or
touchdown twenty ninth and league explosive run rate runs of
ten or more yards thirtieth in yards after contact rush
Like Jint's going to change a lot of this. Pete
Carroll and Chip Kelly are not going to put up
with that like that, Like there's a reason why they
took took Janty so early too. The offensive line slats
with question marks. But this is a team I would
expect to be have a significantly just different culture, a

(56:53):
different look to it. And that's what makes it just
kind of a little bit suspect where you're saying, like
I'm getting a supreme value in Jacoby Mya. I had
Andrew Cooper on my podcast a week ago and he
brought up, you know, the point about how only one
time and it happened in tight end. Premium has a
has a tight end that's been going with a top
twelve ADP payoff as a top twelve flex play. Now

(57:13):
Bowers has slipped a little bit from that where he was,
but you know, it's a real top heavy year at
tight end this year. But brock Bauers, basically at his
current ADP still has to perform like a wide receiver
and that just asking a lot for a player, even
a guy that won the Mackie twice, right, we know,
as a talented player. Just because the opportunity cost at
tight end is so rich, he has to perform it

(57:35):
like he has to explode at tight end because he's
just an okay tight end. That opportunity cost is just
significantly worse than if you were to draft a wide
receiver with SIMILARITYP like an AJ Brown and that and
AJ Brown just ends up as an okay wide receiver. Well,
an okay wide receiver is just a lot more valuable
than an okay tight end or Joe Good tight end.
And that's what makes it so tough at tight end
this year. But I definitely expect this team from a

(57:56):
real life perspective to be a lot more competitive of
a different look. It's unfortun because they upgrade a quarterback
and they might serve the worst quarterback or division.

Speaker 2 (58:04):
You know, it's almost hard to believe their running game
was so bad. Was a mere white? You know, that's
just hard to fathom, hard to fathom. But yeah, the
whole offense, I can't say that. I sit there and
look at it and feel excited. But you're absolutely right
about Pete Carroll. He's going to write the ship and
things are going to be at least a little more
buttoned up, and that can lead to some optimism for us.

(58:27):
I'll tell you what, I have been clicking the button
on Jacoby Myers quite a bit. I just feel like
where he is, it feels right in that little pocket.
If he climbs a bit as the summer goes on,
and I don't really care, And that's kind of what
you speak to about people don't really care too much.
But he just seems to be sitting there as a
value every summer. But all right, let's move on to

(58:48):
some more quarterback carousel. Here we talked about Gino Smith
and Pete Carroll. Let's move to Seattle and Sam Darnold
They've got a ton of variables as well, a bunch
of turnover. They lost DK Metcalf, they bring in Cooper Cup.
What do we think about Sam Donald there? I'm concerned

(59:08):
about a lot of different things, one of them being
the offensive line and how he performs under pressure. But
you know, when you lose a guy like DK Metcalf
and you bring in a guy like Cup, and then
you're saying Jackson Smith and Jigba is going to be
our number one? How do you think JSN can handle
the number one role? And how do you think this
offense looks with Sam Donald?

Speaker 1 (59:29):
Well? From a system stance, I do think that Clint
Kubiak runs the style of offense that is successful in
kind of today's like current you know, defensive meta, you know,
the the too high safeties, a lot of coverage, a
lot of match coverage. You know, he's gonna play a
lot of tight splits. He wants to use the play
action game pre snat motion, run the football and then
throw stuff off that play action. It's all the stuff

(59:50):
that Sam Donald was really good at. You know, I
was really in on the Saints last year and I
was counting all my money through two weeks and then
and then just like a Saints player started to die week.
But if when you look at what Derek Carr was
doing under Clint kubiac he was hyper efficient in this offense.
Was night or day different when Derek Carr played versus
Jay Hayner and Spencer ratt Or even throughout the injuries.

(01:00:11):
But you look at you know what Sam Donald did
last year he was second in the NFL and quarterback
rating using play action he was eighth, and completion rate
using collection fifteen yards are passing the second in touchdown right.
That just ties into what Clint Kubiak wants to do,
you know, all the pre snap motion stuff. I do
think the JSN like inside outside stuff's a little over blunks.
As a rookie, he was really good on outside routes

(01:00:33):
when he did play outside. We'll have to see what
that happens, you know, over a larger sample. But I
do think that he's gonna get cokeed into like these
these dig the deep dig routes, the stuff on play
action where he's just gonna be open anyways naturally through
the flow of the scheme. I also think that scheme
masks a little bit of the offensive line deficiencies that
they have. That's kind of been tried or true when

(01:00:53):
you look at some of the offensive lines, like guys
like Kyle Shanahan have had Mike McDaniel before last year,
but the first two years in Miami, you know what
Sean McVay has had with the Rams, like that style,
that system has been predicated. Even Laflora with Green Bay,
they've been able to mask some not having a lead
offensive line play, is what I'm saying. So I do
think that Kuba can just help aid from a system stance,

(01:01:15):
mask some of the efficiencies that on a per player
basis that some of the Seahawks have. But I mean,
I think from a from a fantasy stance, none of
these guys are really exciting clicks. You know, JSN You're
still paying kind of that premium, right He's getting drafted
still right in like that that mid range wide receiver two,
so you are still paying for that where he has
to have a ceiling. There are some receivers that go

(01:01:36):
around him that I just outright like a little bit
more cup is just a really tough click because by
the time I'm building out like my bench wide receivers
or I'm drafting wide receiver fours, wide receiver fives. I'm
looking for more like guys that can just like absolutely
decimate their ADP. You're looking for these rookies that can
maybe have big second half of the seasons, like the
lad mcconkey's were a last year Brian Thomas junior in

(01:01:56):
that strike range. Right, So it's just really tough to say,
like what am I getting out of Cooper Cup? As
ADP could be a value potentially, but you're getting an
aging player coming off of a disappointing season that will
be thirty two in June. He might not have like
a supreme role fit. We know that largely maybe some
of the decision that he went to Seattle was to
go back home too. Like it's just really tough to

(01:02:17):
kind of click on a player that just couldn't get
opened last year, Like, how are we expecting him to win?

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
Right?

Speaker 1 (01:02:23):
Like the Kink Kubak schemes only goes so far. The
only player I do think that is potentially like a
real value here is Kenneth Walker. And it's because of
that scheme Kenneth Walker was still really good at being
Kenneth Walker breaking tackles. Last year he forced the mistackle
once every eleven point eight rushes. That was thirteenth of
all forty six running backs to have one hundred more

(01:02:44):
carries in the season. And for his career, he's averaged
almost a full yard per carry on outside zone runs
compared to none outside zone runs. And here comes you know,
Clint Kubiak, you know, third in the NFL and outside
zone run rate. Last year he goes from three point
eight yards per carrie first peer Keneth Walker to four
point seven yards for carry. And that's what the Seattle
offensive line he's had. So if you know the system

(01:03:05):
can be a little bit, just boost that play and
you know, Gray's abel can be an upgrade at guard.
I think Kenneth Walker could be a guy that could potentially,
you know, cash in, but you have to follow him
over the course of the summer. He's already dealing with
some ankle thing right now. We've got to find out
the severity. You know, how much he's participating in training
camp Oka is all that stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:03:22):
I've been hearing a lot of talk around the football
guy's water cooler about Zach Sharboney. There's probably a reason
for that because we're already talking about Ken Walker injuries.
But yeah, but I hear you on that, and you know,
this is why I have you on the show, because
it gives me a little more optimism for Seattle. I
tend to be somebody who kind of you know, I
spend so much time in this stuff, I end up

(01:03:43):
double counting or triple counting my bad feelings. And what
I was left with with Sam Darnold, what we were
all left with at the end of last year, was
some pretty negative feelings about how he performed at the
end of the year under pressure. And maybe there's some
more room for optimism there. I like the breakdown there
of the Seattle Seahawks. Let's move out to New England. Okay,

(01:04:04):
because people seem pretty bullish on the Patriots this year,
and they're talking about the guys they drafted at receiver.
They're talking about Drake May having a full year to play,
and I know we're talking about Stefan Diggs, but we
don't know when that's going to come to fruition. I

(01:04:24):
have been a little bit on the other side of
the coin, not that I don't think that the Patriots
can improve, just that I'm not as bullish as others
on what they feel like the ceiling might be in
New England for that offense. I love the pieces they've added,
and I love what they're trying to do, but I
guess I'm just not that optimistic. What are your thoughts

(01:04:45):
on New England this year and how much of a
step they can take forward.

Speaker 1 (01:04:48):
The Patriots are interesting because you really can't find a
lot of analysts that dislike the Patriots. But kind of
no one's really expensive outside of Treyvon Henderson, Like no
one's ADP has like kind of gotten that ground swell
to kind to follow what you feel the vibes for.
Like I always go on a show and everyone loves
Drake may right, but like he's kind of he's kind
of just still floating around like that fringe. QB one range.

(01:05:09):
Stefan Diggs will see what his ADP climbs up for,
you know, after some of these videos, and he's gonna
be on target to play this season, but he's still
gonna have some of that age and injury risk priced
in with him, right, you know, he's gonna be thirty
two in November coming off to torn acl Like I
doubt he really spikes in terms of price, I don't
think he's a guy that's gonna make a significant jump.
Kyle Williams is a really cheap rookie wide receiver. If
you don't believe in Diggs, Hunter Henry is one of

(01:05:31):
those kind of like just like Ham and Egg tight
end guys that you can really kind of just throw
in and match with. You know, Drake May and your
stacks know what you're getting in terms of floor based
tight end, but like what kind of ceiling do you have?
Like I said, really, Travion's the only expensive guy I
think top down. Until these guys start to get expensive,
I'm gonna continue to kind of click on these guys,
especially in these early best Ball drafts. We'll see what

(01:05:51):
happens when it's time to start setting seasonal leagues, because
that mindset starts to shift and we'll get onto what
I mean by that with some other guys. But you
look at from a clean pocket last year, even in
the situation he was in with this heinous group of
rookie wide receivers and that just a horrendous offensive line.
Drake May, from a clean pocket was actually more efficient
than Jaden Daniels, And like clean pocket statistics are genuinely

(01:06:13):
more sticky in terms of NFL production and carry over.
And he's a younger player too, so you feel good
about that in the trajectory for Drake May he also
was second in scramble yards. We know that there's morbility.
He's a real wild card when it comes running. If
you remember at North Carolina, like he'll like try to
take on a linebacker, do some crazy stuff. Like he's
a real wild card in terms of running around and

(01:06:33):
you as salt defector in Josh McDaniels is back, And
I know Josh McDaniels the head coach is kind of
a punching bag. But there's a reason Josh McDaniels kept
getting a chance to fail as a head coach, and
it's because his offense is consistently performed and not just
the Tom Brady offenses. You know, you go back to
that last full year he had in Las Vegas, that
offense way overachieved. They were basically a top ten offense.

(01:06:54):
And then you go back to that last year they
had Cam Newton in New England that that team had
no business kind of compete, and he found a way
to make that offense work around a shell of what
Cam Newton was so getting not only the three players
on offensive line, an injection at wide receiver the OC
you know, Traveon Henderson, who who does change the fabric
of a passing game like this is a guy who

(01:07:15):
is great in past detection. He hads explosive plays in
the past game. There's a lot to kind of like
here on the surface. I don't know if it creates
an individual value or it's maybe like the tide lifts
all boats type of situation. But until these guys get
expensive outside of Henderson, I'm going to continue to kind
of mix these guys in and I.

Speaker 2 (01:07:33):
Would have to think the head coach, you know, buttoning
things up, would tend to work in their favor as well.
That's at least that's what I think of him when
I think of what he did, you know, in his
previous stop. But our random question here that just popped
in my head when you were talking, are we forgetting
about the Mario Douglas. Is that somebody that we in

(01:07:55):
deep leagues should still be paying attention to or do
you think that he's not going to play enough.

Speaker 1 (01:08:00):
I think he's going to basically be you know, in
that eleven personnel basically in that slot role, whereas we
see when they play in twelve, will probably see Stefon
Diggs and Kyle Williams, and that that player does have
some best ball upside. I think from a season long stance,
it's an archetype you kind of want to be cautious upon.
I know that there was a question on the show
sheet about Jayden Reid, but he's definitely in that bucket

(01:08:20):
where over the course of the season, those guys lose
like one hundred plus routes compared to like their peers,
and it does make a big deal, and it does
impact them from a game script perspective because you need
them to have pass heavy scripts, being a lot eleven
personnel basically right for those guys to continuously see the field.
But what best ball does is it makes those guys
more valuable. Usually when a lot of people think about

(01:08:42):
best ball, they think of like Alec Pierce or Darius Slayton,
like these guys that just get vertical targets, the old
Mike Williams corollary, right. But what best ball does is
it makes two archetypes that I typically avoid in season
long stances because they're just maddening from setting your roster better.
And that's the slot wide receiver and that's the receiving

(01:09:02):
only running back because you don't have to get those
guys right in best Ball, Like there's gonna be a
three week stretch where the Colts or the Packers or
the Buffalo Bills just like game script, they're controlling game script,
they're not throwing the football. And guys like Jayden Reed
and Kloshakir and Josh Downs have like a stretch where
they're only seeing like four to six targets per game
and they're not getting you those spikes spike weeks out

(01:09:23):
of touchdown. And those are always guys that are gonna
be on your forefront of your mind when you're setting
your lineups and you're playing matchups. You're like, ah, Josh Downs,
this is Josh Downs week, This is Jayden Reid week?
Is it? And it's just really hard to get those
guys right because we are not great at predicting game scripts, right,
Like how many times, Drew have you set a lineup
with a guy you're like, Oh, this team's gonna blow
this team out. It doesn't happen, right, Like you try

(01:09:45):
to sneak in that. You try to sneak in that
running back, and the same thing for like the receiving
running backs, and that could be a Travian Henderson roll
this year. Think about guys like Justice Hill or Austin
Ekeler right now, those guys are tough to put in
your weekly lineup. It's tough to slide them and you're
starting lineup because you don't know if it's in a
week they score a touchdown, a long touchdown, or the
team's trailing and they're getting you know, an extra couple

(01:10:07):
targets per game. But Bestball, you just get those weeks.
You know inherently coming to the season, they're going to
have these weeks. Jaden Reed and Josh Downs and Close
Secure have proven themselves to be good players, like efficient
players when they get an opportunity, but their roadblock because
of the environments they're in, because one, their teams are
good and they don't have to throw as much in
certain games. And then their roadblocked by playing the position

(01:10:29):
that they play, you know, being only an eleven personnel
and you know, four wide receiver sets they come onto
the field. But in Best Ball, those guys are really
valuable and you get to just take those guys on.
So that's why I think it's fun. The dynamic of
why we're way we're drafting our teams now versus where
we're going to draft them in August. When it comes
time to saying like, oh, now I gotta start setting lineups,
your whole mindsets has to shift and kind of wrap

(01:10:52):
around the way these guys are utilized. And Damario Douglas
to circle back around is in that archetype. So I
think there could be some best ball value or run
to a couple weeks, or if you get frozen out
of a stack on Drake May and maybe you have
to pivot and get like an edged add to Mario
Douglass to like your especially in DraftKings right where it's
an extra two rounds and it's full PPR. That's where
I think you can find some spike weeks for him.

Speaker 2 (01:11:14):
Okay, well, hey, I didn't expect to talk about to
Mario Douglas for that long, but I like it. That's
you know, again, this was not on the show sheet.
This is why we have the wizard here because he
can do that off the top of the head. But
let's talk about Jaden Reid. I want to move on
from offenses in general and focus on a couple of
players that I want to try to figure out for everyone.

(01:11:34):
And I want to start with the Green Bay Packers
because Jordan Love last year had quite a different season
last year than he did the year before. A lot
of that I think we can attribute to injuries. And
we saw the offense shift a little bit when he
was out of the lineup. They liked to throw the
ball a little bit more when he was playing. When
he wasn't, they went super run heavy. I hope, of course,

(01:11:55):
that he stays healthy. And let's attack it from that angle.
What do we think about Love if he stays healthy
as a fantasy asset? But on top of that, what
do we do with this wide receiver group? They add
another guy this year? And as you're talking about Jaden Reid,
we know that last year it frustrated all of us,
but he came off the field in two wide receiver sets.

(01:12:17):
He just wasn't a guy that was going to be
out there very often. So has he earned a little
bit more time or can we expect more the same
with Red? And then how do we throw Golden in there.
I mean, I don't know what the heck to do
with all these wide receivers in green Bay. And does
that just mean hey, let's draft Jordan Love or does
that mean no, we're going to see some stratification this

(01:12:37):
year because they've got talent at the top like Golden
and Reed, or they're just going to keep doing their thing.
What are your thoughts?

Speaker 1 (01:12:46):
Yeah, And I think what we saw from Green Bay
when the Malik Willis started to remember Milik willis the
only sample size we saw before last year, Like we
looked he didn't look like he belonged in the league.
And I remember it goes back to what we talked
about Klein Kubiec. I just really believe that the mc
shanahan coaching tree has an offensive system that's really geared
to combat what defenses want to do. And Will Will

(01:13:07):
just look like a completely different player because of that. Right,
Like they were able to run the football used and
play to his strengths, play play action not really put
him into harm's way. And that's again circle back to
that that just coaching Tree, Like I really just have
faith that, like a lot of these the system is
just one you want to latch onto right now in
terms of where you're drafting, teams are hunting for value.

(01:13:29):
Jordan Love, like you brought up that suffered the mcl
sprain at the end of Week one on that terrible
field in Brazil. I don't think the field was really
a part of why he got hurt, but I just
like the thrwshade at how the field was in that game.
Then it comes out as the groin injury in week
eight has an elbow sprain in week eighteen, just never
really was himself. They also had a really weird approach
at Jordan Love where he had a very Russell Wilson
esque offense, like that they ran with him when he

(01:13:52):
played versus Milk Willis, it was either checked down or
chuck it deep with Jordan. With Jordan Love last year
no intermediate level passing, he was twenty third and intermediate
passing rate, but second highest deep ball rate in the
league behind the Anthony Richardson, and as a result, his
completion rate was twenty ninth in the league. Also, on
top of that, in terms of taking inefficient targets, the

(01:14:12):
Packers had the number one He was the number one
quarterback impacted by wide receiver airs drops wide receivers falling
down running the wrong routes. That was Jordan Love, number
one in the league, impacted by that. So even though
these receivers are maddening on a level trying to figure out,
they're also maddening on a level of performance and consistent performance.
Especially for Jordan Love still sported that high touchdown rate.

(01:14:34):
We talked a lot about the system is going to
coax out efficiency from you. So with him where he's
being drafted, I still think that there's some potential upside
for him to be a value, even not to stack him.
I think he can just you can just get Jordan
Love and say, hey, the high touchdown rate, the high
yp can still be there in context of the system.
Screw it. I'm not even try to figure out these
wide receivers, right, or you can just mix in kind

(01:14:55):
of your favorite guys. I think it's pretty clear though,
that Matthew Golden is gonna at least in some capacity,
fill the void that Christian Watson leaves, you know, at
least until he gets back on the field. Jordan Love
had really night and day splits without Christian Watson, that
deep component, that deep that vertical speed player on the field.
He only averaged seven yards for pass attempt with Christian
Watson off the field last year, but when Christian Watson

(01:15:16):
was on the field, he averaged eight point eight yards
per pass attempt. This offense needs that that speed guy.
So I do think Golden's at least going to fill
that role will be enough to create enough value for
Golden himself. I don't know, but I think Golden's price
for a first round wide receiver is hard to really
push back on. I don't mind anyone taking like nibbles
because you're getting competent quarterback play or getting competent system play.

(01:15:37):
Jayden Reid really needs to take that step up and
get more full field usage. Here's where I'm gonna hit
you the stat that ties into everything we just talked about.
Through two NFL seasons, Jayden Reid has run seven total
pass routes on plays the Packers had one to two
wide receivers on the field.

Speaker 2 (01:15:55):
Seven seven.

Speaker 1 (01:15:58):
And when you say, all right, well how many? How
many is that in context of what the Packers have
run as a team. That's two point six percent of
the plays, the passing plays, not the rushing plays. The
two point six percent of the plays. We know Jayden
Reed is an efficient player. Even last year with the
big loss in terms of you know, routes and everything else.
He said more yards that he had as a rookie, right, Like,

(01:16:20):
we know he's a good player. It's just in context,
over the course of a seventeen game fantasy season, there's
going to be weeks where the Packers beat people. It's
gonna be a Josh Jacobs game, or they just don't
throw the passing volume. And when that happens, he's just
not gonna get the allocated targets. You need to have
upside or even have a floor, right to have a floor.

(01:16:41):
This is the player that's gonna have a lot of games,
and you check the box score at the end of
the year, he's gonna have a lot of four target games, right,
not a lot of twelve targets.

Speaker 2 (01:16:50):
Let me ask you, So what that means is over
two seasons, that's what he's been Yeah, and this is
the same coaching staff. So we don't expect that to change, do.

Speaker 1 (01:16:59):
We Maybe a little bit? But I would say with
the golden addition, right, Like, it's hard to believe there's
gonna be a gigantic shift, right, I definitely believe from
a dynasty perspective, like you would just bet on the
player that proved to be good, because we know that
there's a lot of fluidity that could happen. Romeo Dubbs
is not a contract year, right, Like maybe a Romeo
Dobbs moves on. Christian Watson has been injured and is

(01:17:22):
a free agent. What if he's not brought back? Right?
Like I think from a dynasty perspective, there's just a
lot of fluidy here where you just bet on the
talent that Jayden Reid is showcased. I have no problems
like really at as ADP where he goes. I clicked
him a lot in Best Ball for the reasons I said,
like the downs, Khalil Shakir, Jayden Reids, those are guys
I want to draft now at ADP and Best Ball.

(01:17:42):
But then when we get to August, when it's time
to start setting seasonal lineups, I might be shying away
from those guys because I don't love that archetype. From
a weekly lineup setting perspective, right, it's just hard to
get right. It's hard for gamers to get those guys right.
You need a lot of things to fall in favor,
they're in season injuries or getting like I said, the
game script's right and shit, like we get the josh downs, like,

(01:18:04):
well the Colts aren't on here or anything, but like
you know, then you've got Daniel Jones and Anthony richardson
this potential carousel right that we have to deal with
and figure out. So, yeah, I think Jayden Reed is
a guy I'm going to continue to draft right now,
but come August, I'm probably gonna be a little more
gun giant.

Speaker 2 (01:18:19):
Yeah, I can't see myself doing that a whole lot.
I had quite a bit of him last year because
he was so cheap, but then I found out that,
like you know, it's not a whole lot of fun
to sit there and be like, well, is he gonna
have thirty or four? Yes? And you alluded to that already.
But all right, well let's move on to another guy
that is quite divisive at this time of year, and
that's Marvin Harrison Junior in Arizona, somebody that I have

(01:18:42):
been arguing that and maybe this isn't the way a
lot of people like to play the game, and I
totally get that, but I've been arguing, show me some
differences before. I am going to be in on Harrison
for what people to believe can be, you know, a
step forward this year. And I'm of the opinion that, Okay, sure,
just because it's your second year and you've been in

(01:19:03):
the league and you've learned and whatever, you can step forward.
But is he going to be the guy that we
thought he was going to be coming into the league
with what he's got around him right now? And I'm
talking about play calling, the offensive coordinator, and particularly the
quarterback because I'm not a fan of Kyler Murley Murray
the quarterback. Right, So, what do we think about Marvin

(01:19:23):
Harrison this year and can he succeed in the environment
that's essentially the same as twenty twenty four?

Speaker 1 (01:19:29):
Yeah, And I had Matt Harmon on my show and
we talked for Marvin Harrison junior. You could you finance?
We talked about him for twenty minutes, and neither one
of us had like a great answer. So you know
not because.

Speaker 2 (01:19:39):
Oh no, I got to edit this out.

Speaker 1 (01:19:41):
No, no, no. The toughest part about Marvin Harrison Junior
is that you're not just betting on Marvel you alluded to,
You're not just betting on Marvin Harrison junior. Marvin Harrison Junior,
the player did showcase I think enough like especially when
you look at like the work Matt Harmon does, that
shows like on an individual player. Basis what Marvin Harris
r when tasks to win. He was winning. The problem

(01:20:04):
was the way he was utilized, and you have to
bet on that because it hasn't changed. Drew Petsing is
still there and the quarterback hasn't changed. You look at
he didn't get any free squares. Arizona did nothing creative
with him. They asked him to win downfield and primarily
play outside the numbers. Twenty six percent of his targets
came on go routes. It was the second highest rate
of all NFL wide receivers are fifty or more targets.

(01:20:26):
When he did actually run routes over the middle of
the field, he charted really great in Matt's work, and
he actually charted really well in the yards per outrun perspective.
He was winning on those routes. The problem was he
wasn't getting targeted at a high frequency on those routes
because Kyler Murray wasn't. Now I have a theory that
since the NFL's changed and is playing a lot more coverage,
these shorter quarterbacks now it started to kind of expose

(01:20:46):
some of the deficiencies they have thrown over the middle
of field. This completely happened to Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson
was going to be the Hall of Fame until this happened.
Like he was absolutely going to a Hall of Fame.
And then teams were like, Oh, we're going to start
the funnel everything to the middle of the field. You
start to have to take these checkdowns and free squares,
and Russell Wilson, who is notoriously a big game hunter,
wants to push the ball vertical outside numbers. When that

(01:21:08):
started to get taken away, Oh buddy, Russe. Now he's
in his third team in three years. We also saw
this when Deshaun Watson came back. Deshaun Watson is a
very similar game to Russell Wilson when he left off
with Houston and he came back to a different NFL
and really struggled. And Kyler a quarterback that's really struggled
over his career to throw over the middle of field.
When you are now tasked to throwing over the middle

(01:21:29):
of field more based on the structure of what defenses
are kind of forcing.

Speaker 2 (01:21:32):
You to do.

Speaker 1 (01:21:33):
It's we haven't seen it yet, right, So it's not
just a bet on Marv and you have to take
a leap of faith on him based on Drew Petsing,
based on Kyler Murray. And that's what makes it so tough.
I do think that again, not to just completely use
best ball as a crutch. There are data points that
point to like where he is potentially like solid, right,
Like he had twenty five percent of the team targets

(01:21:55):
win on the field, but that's still a really good number.
Like he's still operating as a wide receiver too, So
he had forty six percent of the team targets into
the end zone. That was second in the NFL. Only
Drake London was higher. So like you can still run
into touchdown production Marvin Harrison. I mean, it's it's why
it makes him such a ruarshack test, right since two
thousand the only rookie wide receivers they have over eight

(01:22:17):
hundred and fifty yards and eight touchdowns on fewer than
sixty five catches, where Julio Jones, AJ Brown, Mike Williams
and Chase Claypool. I said, he's a complete ruarshack test.
But I do think betting him as a player, I
still believe him as a player is kind of what
we were getting coming to the NFL. It's just that
you've take such a leap of faith in all these

(01:22:37):
other things, and it reminds me a lot of afore
another Ohio state wide receiver, Garrett Wilson. Right, Garrett Wilson's
been kind of propped up on being what we believe
is a good player, but then he's been dragged down
by all these environmental things. And here we are again
with Gary Wilson, by the way, on this again for
year four, year four of doing the Garret wils And
that's kind of where I fall into the bucket. With

(01:22:57):
Marvin Harrison junr. Is if if I just had the
bet on Martin Harrison Junior the player, I think I
still make that bet, but he makes it's a tougher
bet when you have these other elements in play.

Speaker 2 (01:23:09):
Totally agree, and that's been my argument all along, that
show me there's a difference. I got a lot of
blowback on that, but I'm standing firm with that, show
me there's something different coming into this year and what
you said about no free squares. I was having a
conversation with somebody on Twitter and I just made a funny,
offhand comment. I said, throw the man a bubble screen
for cryingout. Let him have one, Like, yeah, I know,

(01:23:32):
I didn't check out the number, but I just watched
him all year and I knew he was getting none
of that. And that's just the easy fantasy production that
you can rely on for some of these guys to have.

Speaker 1 (01:23:42):
You know, look at because look how it changed. Marmin
Heerson Junior a decade ago was the archetype receiver that
was like the fantasy wide receiver on one right, like
the Julio Joneses and Andre Johnson's the AJ Greens. And
we've shifted now because of all the things that we've
covered to this point about the defenses, and now it's
these guys like Ceedee Lamb and I'm on ras S.
Brown and even Jamar Chase, Like people don't like Jamar

(01:24:03):
Chase creates explosive plays, but his slot rate's going up
every year. You need to kind of be the receiver, yeah,
and you need to be that receiver that can get
those free squares and move around the formation now, like
those are the guys that are now the fantasy wide
receiver wants.

Speaker 2 (01:24:17):
All right, great breakdown, good confirmation bias for me, what
let's move to Kansas City. Because there's two guys that
is also a robust discussion these days in the fantasy
community about who should be the more highly valued receiver.
We're talking about Rashie Rice and Xavior Worthy. Of course,
we've got some injury issues with Rice, but I want

(01:24:42):
to ask you for the sake of the discussion, and
I and I don't want everyone to forget that there's
that injury, you know, thing hanging over his head. But
for the sake of the discussion in a vacuum, if
we're talking about two guys that are full go week one,
who do you prefer who should be going ahead of
the other one? And what do we consider Because my

(01:25:02):
concern is that when Worthy had to be the guy,
they used him, and when he doesn't have to be
the guy, that that lack of volume is really going
to be a problem for him. I like Rice more.
How do you feel about who should be drafted ahead
of the other one? Yeah, I'm one.

Speaker 1 (01:25:21):
Hundred percent with you, and it's on the rate Rahi
Rice side until Drew until you come out and tell
me he's gonna be suspended like you know which which
you haven't.

Speaker 2 (01:25:29):
I don't think he is. I don't know. I don't
think so.

Speaker 1 (01:25:32):
And the and the reason for that is one, this
is a this is a guy that's shown like a
while he's been on the field. I mean, you'll get
his his past, you know, nineteen his past ninety full games.
He's playing the regular season nineteen and a half PPR
points per game. And when you put these two guys
on the field together, because it's all about the marriage
of these guys, how does it work. It's hard to
see the Chiefs being asking Rashi Rice to do things

(01:25:53):
that he's not capable of doing where they know they
can still ask Xavier Worthy to be a speed threat
and go downfield. I mean Xavier, people forget, this guy
didn't go over eighty yards in the regular season last year.
Even with the kind of like break up, like, it's
not an exciting player to draft, right. I think that
from a threatening the defense contextual scheme stance, like Rashi

(01:26:14):
Rice is still gonna be that guy getting that underneath
stuff because he's just better after the catch, and he
doesn't win as much downfield as the other two guys
maybe can potentially win. Ass we haven't really seen it
from Worthy yet, but I still think that they drafted
him with kind of that the potential that he could
still win, you know, with speed downfield. We see a
very small little bit of it of Rashi Rice in
that year two sample, those four games. He caught that

(01:26:36):
one nice vertical rout against the Bengals, if if you know,
people remember that. But he's still getting those targets that
are near the line of scrimmage, getting the yak stuff right.
And I still think that's what they're gonna ask him
to do. They're gonna have Hollywood Brown still running big
boy routes, and they're gonna have Xavier Worthy stretching the
field vertically when Rashi Rice is on the field. And
granted this is a four game sample. When Xavier Worthy

(01:26:58):
was a rookie, right like, his A was over twelve
yards downfield and it goes down to six with Rashi
Rice off the field. He really benefited from getting some
of that manufactured production. Is he going to have that
with Rashi Rice back. It's very hard to bet on
it right for those reasons, like I said, because they're
not going to ask for she Rice to be running
all these go routes right in these post routes. It's
not really his game. It wasn't an SMU. It hasn't

(01:27:20):
been to the small sample we've had in the NFL,
So it's hard to believe that. I do believe though.
The one thing that people may not be playing in
is that the Chiefs we never got to see what
they wanted to do last year with these guys because
Hollywood gets hurt in the preseason, doesn't play Missus fourteen games,
Rashi Rice is injured after four weeks. Worthy's kind of
throwing the deep end, and then they were forced to

(01:27:41):
go back and run the offense through Travis Kelcey. Threw
a stretch of the season until like the very end
of the season where it kind of started to go
back to be Worthy. I guarantee, like when you look
at the first four games of the season, their plan
was never to have Travis kelce a thirty five year
old Travis kelce be kind of like the be all
entity this passing game, and having Travis Kelcey as a
complimentary piece could be a lot more beneficial if they

(01:28:03):
have all these guys healthy now, especially with Worthy making
some growth, Rice making some growth, Hollywood being healthy. As
a result, that Chiefs only threw the ball to their
wide receivers forty nine and a half percent of the
time last year, that was twenty ninth in the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes as a result, through thirty one of his
passes at or behind the line of scrimmage that was
only ahead of Tua last year ten or more yards

(01:28:26):
downfield only twenty six percent of his throws that was
ahead of just Gardner Minshew, the lowest rate of Mahomes' career.
I do think we're going to see a lot more
eleven personnel, a little bit more vertical passing added to
this offense this year, and we'll kind of get to
see kind of what they had envisioned with kind of
all these guys on the field last year. Is that
enough to make Mahomes a value? I don't know, but

(01:28:46):
I do think if you're just betting I'm Worthy at
his ADP, you should just be in on Mahomes. I
think I think Mahomes at his ADP is a better
bet than Worthy at his ADP.

Speaker 2 (01:28:56):
Yeah, I can't wait to see the marriage of these
three receivers in this offense and what Andy Reid wants
to do with them. Even just watching Hollywood get assimilated
at the end of the year and just the kind
of rods he was running, it was really refreshing. You
you mentioned the fact how often Mahomes was throwing behind
the line of scrimmage or throwing short, and then all
of a sudden you got Hollywood Brown catching a nine

(01:29:18):
yard passed down the field and you're like, oh, hey,
this is this is fun. So I hope that, you know,
we see something explosive and fun there with the Chiefs
getting back to what they used to do a few
years ago. But yeah, I'm been on Rice. That's also
I want to wait and see what happens in training
camp with his you know how much he ramps up,

(01:29:39):
whether he sustains any kind of conditioning injury as he
rams things up there in training camp, but he certain
I think.

Speaker 1 (01:29:45):
There's also some some a common misnomer that he had
an ACL injury where it was it was an LCL.
So I think you know people here ACL, especially at
wide receivers, and it's just like I will give those
guys a year, but he did not have an ACL.

Speaker 2 (01:29:57):
Right, right, Okay, well, let's to move on. I got
two more situations I want to ask you about real quick,
and then I want to leave everyone with a couple
of your favorite picks or fates. So the next guy
I want to ask about is Bress Hall in New York.
The main thing I want to ask about is, you know,
Hall gets a lot of his production from the passing game.

(01:30:18):
I looked into that this past week. It looks like
in twenty twenty three he got fifty nine point six
percent of his PPR points from the receiving game, and
in twenty twenty four that was fifty point six percent.
So he's been over half of his production from the
receiving game in the past two seasons. Now he's got
justin Fields at quarterback. I don't know what to think
about the offense in general and what they're going to do.

(01:30:41):
How much does Fields affect bress Hall? And what do
you feel about where he's being drafted Now, usually you're
going to have to pull the trigger end a second
early third to land Hall. What do you think about
that situation in New York?

Speaker 1 (01:30:53):
Yeah, I think it's the transition here. Well, one of
the things me being the like the original Konami code guy,
is also understanding like how much these mobile quarterbacks you know,
actually hurt their running backs from a stance of throwing
to them getting checkdowns and then stealing touchdowns you know
near the end zone. So those are the things you

(01:31:14):
kind of have to worry about. Was one that Justin
Field is gonna pull down the natural passing volume of
this offense inherently, like he's just going to drag it down,
versus the amount of dropbacks this offense had with Aaron
Rodgers on the field versus what they are going to
have this year. So that's a problem for one, Garrett Wilson,

(01:31:35):
like I said. And then also you know, getting those checkdowns,
because it's one thing is say like hey could get
greshall get those checkdowns. Sure, but they're also probably gonna
throw you know, one hundred fewer passes than they did
last year, especially when you look at like them having
a top seven pass rate you know over expectation and
drop back right with Aaron Rodgers, whereas Justin Fields has
never had a team you know, over fifty five percent

(01:31:55):
in terms of drop back, right, so there's gonna be
a huge valume loss, and then you have kind of
the the pushing pool for you, you know, stealing the
rushing touchdowns. Justin Field does nineteen rushing touchdowns through four seasons.
Twelve of those have come inside of the five yard line, right, Like,
that's the push and pool that these guys have with
kind of impacting their players or their wide receivers and
kind of their running backs in terms of checkdowns and

(01:32:18):
all that. So that's a problem. So Bresall, unfortunately the
player I believe in from a dynasty stance, but I
don't think the fit is there for him this year
to like really crush his ADP. I think he could potentially,
we could look back on it and say he was
an okay pick at ADP or it's fine, maybe a
little bit of value right where like people play the
game where I drafted the RB thirteen and got the
RB ten. You know, we do this every year, but

(01:32:39):
I think it's really hard for him to kind of
really kind of crash and be a top five running
back based on you know the addition of Justin Fields
and what structurally he does in terms of offensive value
and in terms of touchdown production and overall passing value.

Speaker 2 (01:32:51):
Yeah, I just can't imagine. It's hard for me to
tell a story where I'm excited about Breshaw at the
end of the year, and I started out the summer
thinking point he looks like a value to me, and
the more I think about it, the more he scares me.
He was RB eighteen in points per game last year,
even with that passing volume. And I found a weird
stat anytime, not weird, but something that you obviously know already.

(01:33:16):
Anytime that Fields has played over forty snaps in a
game at the quarterback position, he averages about one hundred
and seventy seven passing yards a game. Just just a
you know, ugly kind of gross stat that I just
am not excited about Breese Hall. But let me ask
you about one more situation. I got to get you
out of here. We're running a little bit long. We
both like to run our mouths. But I want to

(01:33:38):
talk about the Texans backfield because they bring in Nick
Chubb to compete with Joe Mixon. Mixon's been for a
couple of years now, I don't know, maybe his whole career,
I don't know, sort of a compiler. He's just a
guy that he's going to get a ton of volume.
He's going to get in the end zone. But it's
just he's never going to be super impressive from an
efficiency standpoint. He's getting up there and touches and age,

(01:34:00):
and now they bring in Nick Chubb. I don't know
what to think about Nick Chubb as a player at
this point, but are we concerned about that split in
Houston for both of their value?

Speaker 1 (01:34:09):
I think in general, the way I look at it
as opposed to last year's coming into last year, I
thought that there was and I wrote about this, that
there was a big void that gamers were missing, an
ADP in terms of like these these round these RB
two players that just had this clear path to like
immense volume. And then these guys didn't end up paying

(01:34:30):
off because they saw they saw some stuff happen towards
the end of the season. Maybe there were some injuries
picked up, but you were looking at guys like Aaron
Jones and Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara, and it was like,
these guys have no competition and nobody wants these guys.
You can completely build either an anchor running back build
and come back and scoop up one to two of
these guys and have a lot of valume. You can
draft wide receiver heavy and just pick up this valume.

(01:34:51):
And those guys did end up being values. Like I said,
they didn't end up like winning championships because of like
the weeks of the Fantasy Championships, they weren't at their best,
they weren't at a but they do were value picks
in a lot of gamers that did draft those guys
ran into successful seasons. Almost every one of those guys.
Those teams went out and said, we're ensuring the hell
out of these running backs this year. You know. They

(01:35:13):
they drafted Woody Marks to be a passing down back
to feel like that Dart to compete with dar Daryu Wale.
They add, you know Nick Chubb, who whether you or
not how you feel about what Nick Chubb's gonna do,
this is still a decorated player who's gonna like earn
some stuff through the coaching staff and through his work ethic,
right like this is an Omari and Hampton pound too,
Like you better believe Nashi Harris is getting some snaps

(01:35:34):
more than you want him to. And when you look
at Joe Mixon last year, like he had the games
he played, he had eighty percent of the backfield touches
like Houston just didn't trust their depth. Damian Pierce, you know,
and Daring Wale in the games only combined for seventy rushes.
H You're gonna see Nick Chubb probably get more of that.
The other factor is too, is that you know, the
dolphinsive line of Houston is actually potentially worse, which is

(01:35:56):
hilarious to think about considering the play that they had.
But you know, they trade learn me Tomson Tunsle Shaq
Mason is a better guard than kind of what they
have on paper right now. They're just kind of got
this King Moon Racer like island to misfit toys, that
offensive line between like Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, guys like
Ed Ingram and Lincoln Tomlinson, like they're trying to coax

(01:36:16):
out just something to work out of these guys, and like,
good luck, it hasn't worked. It's the arrested developmentme right,
Like hasn't worked out for any any of the other people.
Maybe maybe it'll work out for us, right right, And
so that's the problem I have with Joe Mixon. It's
just that, like I think there's gonna be we know,
there's gonna be more competition than you had last year.
You talked about him just being a little bit more
of a guy that like the opportunity drives him more.

(01:36:39):
And he's also one of these guys that has like
these like two or three Spike week games. He's like
Joe Mixon's been notorious that and then just like have
like these four or five down weeks and then like
have like another Spike Week er. He gets like the
three touchdowns, and it kind of when you look at
like the when the dust titles on the season, you're like, oh,
Joe Mixon at a really solid season again. But as
a as a gamer that like if you had him
on your roster, you kind of had a level of

(01:37:00):
stration with him as well. So he's just the guy
that I haven't been drafting that whole pocket of like
RB two's though, I think if gamers are going to
be chasing that be like, oh, we caught a bunch
of value in this area last year, I'm going to
run that back. The land shape, the landscape is shifted
this year, especially through the NFL draft, Like there's a
lot more competition, and a lot more not clear cut,
like honed in backfields, where it's like this guy is

(01:37:22):
a path that get you know, eighty five ninety percent
of the backfield touches.

Speaker 2 (01:37:25):
The offensive line. Thing is so weird to me. They
get rid of their best offensive lineman, and I understand
the issues with him, but I guess they're hoping it's
additioned by subtraction. I don't know what the thought there is.
I do tend to tell you off air about it, Okay,
all right, all right. I mean I tend to trust
the front office when they make these kind of decisions,

(01:37:45):
but this one's hard, and I think I heard Jim
Coventry talking about the other day that it's possible it
could even be worse there. That certainly does not make
me feel all warm and fuzzy. But I got to
get you out of here. We're pushing an hour, and
I want everyone to hear a couple thoughts from you,
just personal preference things. Guys that you picked up and
doing your work for Warren's book or whatever the case

(01:38:07):
may be. Give me a couple guys on each side
of the coin. A couple guys that you're finding yourself
chasing that you feel like are good value right now.
And on the other side, guys that are you just
having trouble clicking the button that you're fading right now?

Speaker 1 (01:38:21):
Well, in general, I know people are tiring me talking
about it, but the San Francisco forty nine Ers in
general as a team are largely undervalued, except for you know, Asterix,
Brandon IUK right, like, I'm probably just not going to
draft a lot of brand and Auke because I'm just
not going to do the injury game, you know. And
also there's some just weird ominous stuff with Brandon new
going on, like just with the organization. So he's probably

(01:38:44):
the one exception to this rule. But the forty nine
Ers are a team. I think people are thinking that
their demise has already like started to occur, maybe from
a real life football stance in a win lost dance
it has. Maybe the super Bowl window has shut. But
I guarantee ante you this offense is going to score
points this year through everything that happened last year, all
of their injuries. Remember they only played were in fifty

(01:39:05):
seven total plays with their first string offense on the
field last year, and Trent Williams missed seven games, they
were still fourth in expected touchdowns in the NFL. If
you look at Vegas numbers right now, they're projected to
be seventh in point score this season. You know, I
think people are writing off Christian McCaffrey probably a year
two early. I do understand why he goes there, you know,

(01:39:25):
with the injuries and stuff like that. But I know
a wide receiver, supreme lender valid here you were brought up.
You've been drafting Jacobe Myers. The reason I don't draft
a lot of Jacob Myers because unfortunately, I just take
a lot of Juwan Jennings there.

Speaker 2 (01:39:38):
He's also one of my favorites.

Speaker 1 (01:39:39):
Yeah, and I mean Jwan Jennings. When he was on
the field last year, he had thirty two percent of
the team targets. It was seventh in the NFL among
all players. Like, and this is a guy that with anything,
that everything. Anytime they asked him to do something or
counted on him, he delivered. Like that counts for something, right,
And Ricky Piersall who follows like my year two wide receiver,

(01:40:01):
you know, Bucket, I always am harping on year two
wide receivers. They're the kind of the number one best buy.
Just draft guys that are year two wide receivers if
you're looking to cash in value, so definitely throw in
guys even that aren't sexy the Keon Coleman's of the world. Right, Like,
no one wants draft kick call when you should mix
them in, especially in these bestball leagues, you know, add
him to Adam to your roster. Even like a guy
remember Quentin Johnson and wrote him off last year, and

(01:40:23):
I know he didn't like win leagues outright, but like
he was a value, especially if you took him in
bestball leagues. You know, So even if they're not a
sexy draft these year two wide receivers. But yeah, absolutely
the forty nine ers, Kittle should be going closer to
Bowers and McBride. There shouldn't be the gap between those guys.
In my eyes, Purty is a value. I understand if
you don't take Purty just because Dude, the quarter we

(01:40:45):
didn't talk about this with Drake May, but quarterback like
QB eight through QB twenty, we've we've brought up Jordan
Love on this show. Dude, it's just so flat. Drew,
if you told me that you looked at my quarterback
rankings and you're like, Reebs, your QB eight is like
my QB seventeen. I'd be like, yeah, I would believe you,
Like it's I just don't think that's distinguishable. Like when

(01:41:06):
you look at those guys and that brings me up
to one of the guys I think that's overvalued is
is bon Nicks. And it's really no shade on bon
Nicks the player, like expecting him to make a jump
or potentially be better. But when you look at Joe Nicks,
Joe Nicks, bo Nix was like he was a value
player at ADP last year, but like he didn't really
offer you a lot of spike weeks. He was more

(01:41:27):
of like a floor base QB one. Before the Week
eighteen game, he only had two games higher than QB eight,
and they were completely identifiable matchups against the Carolina Panthers.
Last year against the Atlanta Falcons, when he was forced
to face like good opponents, which was very few, because
I remember this is a team that had one of
those easy schedules. He had eight games before Week eighteen

(01:41:49):
against a pass defense that was in the front half
of the league, and in those games he was the
average QB eighteen with a high week of QB ten.
Like this is a floor based player. Denver's too good,
right for them to probably have, like for him to
approach six hundred drop backs. They improve the run game too, right,
Like they set out to have a better run game.
They draft RG Harvey. They even bring in Dobbins, and
Dobbins falls into that chub Nick Chubb corler of like

(01:42:12):
you might not believe in JK. Dobbins the player, but
they're signing him for a role, and like they want
to improve this run game as a whole. So like
bone Nicks, I just have a hard time seeing where
he's gonna get the dropbacks, and you have to now
bank on him against the harder schedule, right when he
didn't deliver against a hard schedule. They have our twenty
sixth rank passing schedule. And again, like what's the margin

(01:42:33):
for air of drafting bon Nicks at ADP versus we
brought up Brock Purdy or a Jordan Love or a
Drake may right, Like I just don't see why you
would take the squeeze in a quarterback like that, because
I just don't see like the ceiling potential so I'm
just not drafting him at aap at all. A couple
other guys I think Amari and Hampton I think is

(01:42:54):
significantly overvalued right now for a little bit of stuff
I alluded to. I do think the Chargers definitely have
at a signal they're gonna run the football more than
they did the back half of the year when a
lot of people are citing these dropback rates and stuff,
when they couldn't run at all with JK. Dobbins and
Gus Edwards. You know, the first thing they do in
free agency is throw the bag Mackay becked in. They

(01:43:15):
bring in Najie Harris, they use the first round picking
on Maryon Hampton. I do believe they're gonna run the
football more, but I do think Najie Harris is going
to be a thorn there a little bit, especially in
terms of like pass protection. Right, Like Naji's a guy
that can earn some stuff in pass pro and maybe
kind of just takes away the upside a little bit
of Marie and Hampton. I think year one you need
a Marie and Hampton almost p Jamir Gibbs, like right,

(01:43:36):
And I just don't know if I believe he ken
Be And that's kind of why, because he goes ahead
of those guys we all talked about the Joe Mixon's
of the world, right, the James Connors of the world.
He goes ahead David Montgomery goes ahead of all those guys.
I think that's tough to ask for, you know, a
rookie running back, everyone getting linked to Greg Roman and
Jim Harbaugh. And that also falls true, I think for

(01:43:56):
Caleb Johnson. I know a lot of people love Caleb Johnson.
But the easiest path to make the argument for Caleb
Johnson I see people saying is like he's gonna inherit
the role Najie Harris had. When the hell was anyone
excited to have Najie Harris in fantasy and especially a
Naji hair like a version of Johnson with Arthur Smith, right,

(01:44:17):
and Aaron Rodgers, Like, this is gonna be one of
the slowest paced offenses. It's gonna they're not gonna run
a lot of plays. Also, I think there's too many
avenues for Caleb Johnson to fail.

Speaker 2 (01:44:26):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (01:44:27):
One. We fall in love with these guys all the time,
these guys that are built like aj Dillon, Andre Williams, right, Uh,
these just big dudes. But we he's every path for
I think Caleb Johnson succeed in fantasy football revolves around
one thing, right, Drew. He's got to score a shitload
of touchdowns, right, And what if Jalen Warren is just

(01:44:48):
what well one, what if the Steelers aren't good enough
to make that role, you know, conducive for fantasy points.
What if Jalen Warren is just a better player and
they trust him more? Like those are these are all
just elements that hang and the possibility. So I think,
like you just have to thread the needle on Caleb
Johnson too tightly, right, like he need he and like
so I'm just he's just a guy, Like I don't

(01:45:09):
have the rookie fever for him. Maybe he's a guy
like Dayalen warrens hurt at the end of the year
and you run into that hot pocket where he is
the three down running back. But I'm just not excited
to click him.

Speaker 2 (01:45:20):
Yeah. Well, I feel like we got a bad runout
on just about every rookie running back that we might
have been excited for, you know, yeah, except for gent Yeah,
I mean we get Henderson and you know, with with
Stevenson and we get I mean Jenkins, maybe that's all right,
but you know, the list goes on. I feel like
we got kind of a bad run out with a
pretty good crop of running backs. So yeah, I'm with

(01:45:43):
you there.

Speaker 1 (01:45:43):
And then a guy like DeAndre Swift is just dodging
all these dudes, just just matrix like man, just laying
back and dodging them.

Speaker 2 (01:45:51):
That's amazing to me. That is something I can't believe.
But I will say there's a I'm lapping up this
confirmation bias here on the forty nine ers. You know,
I'm a brock pretty guy. I just tweeted out about
the fact that his first two seasons with Shanahan he
had an over seven percent TD rate. Of course it's
not we can't expect seven percent, but he fell back

(01:46:14):
to four and a half or something last year, and
typical Shanahan quarterbacks five to six percent. Pretty normal TV
rate for Shanahan quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 (01:46:23):
So about that. That's been the theme.

Speaker 2 (01:46:26):
Yeah, yeah, So, I mean, I I love the prety
propaganda eating that up like I'm in a in a
in a bar at one o'clock with you and Thor
taking your cheese curds. So I had to throw that
in there. So all right, well look man, I got
to get you out of here. This is awesome. I
could do this for three hours. But you've been generous

(01:46:48):
with your time. You've always been generous coming on the
show whenever I've asked, so thank you so much. Just
I want to put your handle back out there again.
He said it at the beginning, but it's Lord Reeves,
that's l R D R ebs. And like I said,
don't stop until you see Zach Morris on a cell phone.
Thank you again. Rich really appreciate it and can't wait
to hang in Canton anytime. Brother. All Right, great job.

(01:47:12):
This is why we have him on. That was really
really fun and that's been another week of discussions with Drew.
All Right, nice job, Rich Reebar from Warren Sharp Football Analysis.
We always get smarter when we listen to Rich, don't we.

(01:47:32):
That's why we have him on the show. That's why
I love the auction brief because I believe that every
week that you listen, you're getting better and eventually, you know,
I can say the little details all I want, and
maybe the first time around or the second time around,
you're not gonna learn them for the third or fourth
or fifth time around, you probably will. And that's why

(01:47:55):
I have guys on over and over that I think
are super smart guys like Rich and we got Matt
Harmon coming on. We've got JJ Zach Reison coming on.
We've got a great guest list once again this summer,
and Rich killed it like he normally does. So thank
you so much, Rich Reebar get over there and check
out his work on Sharp Football Analysis. I believe the
website is Sharpfootballanalysis dot com, so go check out Rich's work.

(01:48:20):
All right, that's going to do it for another episode
of the Auction Brief. Thank you so much for joining me.
Don't forget. You can find me on TikTok and Patreon
as the Fantasy Football Lawyer on Twitter at Drew Davenport
FF and order your draft boards this summer from Fjfantasy
Draft Boards. Use my code Auction twenty twenty five that's
Auction two zero two to five and get ten percent

(01:48:43):
off your order. I've had a great time diving back
into the auction stuff this week and looking forward to
twenty twenty five for the first time. I know we've
done a lot of backward looking stuff, but we're now
starting to build our house with some basic ideas, and
we'll get more and more detailed and drilled down even
further the farther along we go this summer. So thank

(01:49:04):
you so much for joining me. It's been another fun episode.
And hey, folks, the best thing you can do to
support my show is not just a download, but to
tell your friends and family. They don't even have to listen,
just tell them to download, put me on automatic download.
But also leaving me a review always helps. If you've
never done that before, please go over there and even

(01:49:24):
just rate it five stars or leave it a review,
whatever the case may be. That helps grow the show
even just a little bit more stack in little gains.
Am I right? All right? Thank you so much for
joining me on this week's episode of The Auction Brief.
And the Auction Brief is now adjourned, and I am out.

Speaker 3 (01:49:44):
The Auction Brief is adjourned. That'll do it for this
week's episode. See you next time on The Auction Brief.

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