Guest Ian Hartitz from Fantasy Life; Plus The Psychology of Reading Your Auction Room

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:01):
Welcome to the Auction Brief. There'sa joy in this game, sir,
not taking you on a journey throughfantasy football, the law, and life.
These all your it depends on howmuch you want. And now you're

(00:22):
legal analyst and auction draft expert hereto help you dominate your fantasy drafts.
Your host, Drew Davenport. Thereare full hearts. Hey, everybody,
welcome into the Auction Brief. Asthe lady said, I am your host,
Drew Davenport, and welcome in forseason four, episode six. That

(00:46):
means we are dead on the midpointof the summer. As you listen to
me right now, today is goingto be a really fun episode. I
am excited about the episode. Iknow, I say I'm excited every week.
I'm excited for a fanchastic episode.But seriously, I am excited for
this week because you know, listenback to last week's episode and I don't

(01:08):
know, I mean, it wasjust kind of boring. I don't know.
It doesn't mean that what I saidlast week wasn't important. Last week
was super important in fact, andI would say, like I said last
week, that that's the second mostimportant episode you can listen to all summer,
but I just found myself like,yeah, I was just like preachy

(01:32):
and just I don't know, justboring. I don't know. I'm just
being honest. I love the conceptsthere, I really really really do.
So I find that to be quitethe dichotomy. Loved the concepts, loved
the message, thought it was completelynecessary to say all that stuff. At

(01:52):
the same time, it was justlike, Eh, so we're getting on
it today, babe, We're gonnado something fun. I just thought about
the show today and I was like, let's march through what we need to
know about auctions and we'll start withour preparation. And that's what I was
going to do this week. Iwas just going to do the episode about
preparation this week, get you ready, like as you're starting to prepare,

(02:13):
but we're going to push that offone week because I just want to have
fun today. I just want tohave fun. I think we're going to
learn a lot, but I wantto have fun. So the most fun
episode I can think of that peoplereally like is how to Read your League
and what we talked about last summer, basically, how do we grind our
draft room. I'm not going totalk our way through how we grind the

(02:34):
room. Part of feeling our waythrough an auction is knowing what we're doing
visa vi are other managers in theroom. So that's what we're going to
do today. It's not going tobe the full grind of a draft room.
It's just going to be the partwhere we are reading our league mates.
And that is one of the mostfun episodes. And I've heard that
from people over and over that theylove that kind of stuff. They really

(02:58):
sink their teeth into that kind ofthing. I love it too, and
I'm going to cap it off atthe end of my comments about reading your
league. I'm going to cap itoff with four players that I believe right
now maybe we're spending a little toomuch time dissecting their potential for twenty twenty
four instead of just putting our headdown and going with it. I say

(03:20):
this a lot of times when I'mon the poker table. There are situations
where I'm in a tournament and somethinghappens and my brain is like, oh,
well, just be careful and don'tyou know, don't do this.
My knit brain takes over and Ijust have to turn old nitty off and
just shove my chips in because it'sa spot that I need to get the
chips in. So sometimes you justhave to turn your brain off and say,

(03:42):
what's the most likely outcome here?Or am I picking this thing too
clean where I need to be juststepping back a little bit and seeing what's
going on. So I've got fourplayers and I kind of want to call
them my get greedy players. Idon't know, that's sort of like your
shrug your shoulders, guys, butit's more than that, because it's getting
greedy is something I talked about lastweek when it comes to roster construction and

(04:06):
attacking our auction as though we canland an all Star team and let's have
that goal going into it. Andso I've picked out four guys that I
think can contribute to that all starbuild. And I think you're really going
to enjoy those four players because Ithink they're all being disrespected. And what
I'm leaning into is the magnification ofpeople's opinions about these four players and how

(04:31):
I think that they can be thecore to a beautiful auction roster. So
that's what we're going to do.We're going to talk about tells things like
that how to read people in thefirst part, and then we're going to
go into four players that I reallywant you to get greedy with and try
to land on your auction teams.Before we get too far in, I
always have to make sure and lookout for the people that look out for

(04:54):
me. One of those sponsors isFJ Fantasy Draft Boards. If you've been
listening all summer, you don't needthe long version, But if you're just
tuning in, don't forget FJA FantasyDraft Boards. I believe are the best
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(05:15):
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I think you're going to really likethese draft boards. Hey, if
you don't think they're the best thingin the world, go back to your
other ones the next year. ButI really believe that once you go to
FJA Fantasy Draft Boards, you aregoing to be a user of the draft
boards forever and ever. Amen.I have been using them forever. I

(05:38):
mean I don't even remember how longit's been since I started using them.
But they are the best in thebusiness. Also, don't forget my Patreon
network is heating up, putting outtons of content over there about my favorite
auction tips. Myth Busting was mylast auction video. We're also getting into
a mock draft here on this afternoonas you listen to this on Thursday morning,

(06:01):
we'll be doing a mock draft thisafternoon as well as a mock draft
the following week. Things are movingquick over on the Patreon network, that
is the Fantasy Football Lawyer Patreon Network. It's only four bucks a month.
Just try for a month. Seeif you're learning about auctions and learning about
legal cases like the Rashie Rice caseand the Cam Sutton case, things like
that. That's what I cover overthere, and you don't get that anywhere

(06:26):
else. So check out the FantasyFootball Lawyer Patreon Network. All right,
thanks for listening to all that stuff. So what do you say we get
into things before we do? Though, just wanted to mention real briefly,
we're not going to do a legalupdate this week, No FF legal update
because there's no new developments on theRice case. Go back to last week
and listen to last week's show.If you want my latest take on that
situation. But for now, let'sgo ahead and start talking about reading some

(06:50):
people and getting into the psychology oftells here on this week's Auction Talk.
Auction Talk. All right, well, I hope you are leaned forward on
the edge of your seat and readyto go. This is a fun one,
and boy, I really did.I actually did quite a bit of

(07:11):
research on this this week, becauseI think that a lot of the things
that I've told you in the past, they do tend to get a little
bit stale. And if you're listeningto this year're going to hear some repeat
content. That's just how it goeswith my show period. Because these concepts
are a lot of them are evergreen, and I'm going to try to do
my best to sprinkle in some examplesas we go along, and hopefully that's
going to help break it up.And also you're going to hear a few

(07:33):
new things this year. I didsome research. I went out of my
way to make sure that I'm coveringon the basis that I want to cover.
And you know, the funny thingthat I found with this topic is
that there's so much you just can'tpossibly cover it all. And I'm going
to do my best to keep thisunder an hour, but we may go
longer than that. I don't know. There's just so much you could talk

(07:56):
about. There's so many different ways. And I gotta tell you, you
know, when I start jotting downmy notes for the week, I just
write some notes down and they generallyjust kind of fall into categories pretty easily.
And this is how I'm going todo it, and I'm going to
move through it this way. Well, this is not one of them.
You should see my notes. Itried writing the notes down, and I
filled up an entire page just randomlyscribbling crap everywhere. And then I tried

(08:18):
to write it down like in somesort of order, and then that just
sort of ended up as the samesort of random crap just offshoots like a
arrow to hear. And this appliesto this, but I think that speaks
to the overall point here that thisis an extremely difficult concept to just put
in a box. So focus onthat general idea when you're going through today's

(08:41):
episode. None of this stuff isvery certain at all. It's not a
certain science. But the reason wego through it is because there are benefits
from this, and they're far greaterthan you probably even imagine. And it
doesn't just extend to auction drafts.It extends to everything you do in your
life once you start watching people.Now, if you don't play poker,

(09:03):
it's not something you've done before,but in auctions you can do it,
and even behind a computer screen.I'm going to talk a little bit about
online tells and things like that aswell. There are things you can notice,
and once you tell yourself to startbecoming more observant, you will pay
attention to things in regular life andyou're going to find that you can start
to read people and that you startto know what little things people do that

(09:28):
matter for understanding them and what they'rethinking. So anyway, as you know,
my education demands that I sort ofmap this out in some way that
we can walk through it together,that you're not completely confused the whole time
because I'm just randomly shouting out,oh and people like to do this.
Oh yeah, don't forget, peoplelike to do this too. So I'm

(09:48):
trying my best to get this inan organized way. What it comes down
to is, I think there aretwo major groups of tells. When it
comes to an auction. The firstmajor group is game based tells, and
those are things like how people bid, how they nominate, how they pursue
players, how they build their roster, things like that. And then there's
physical tells, things that they're notreally giving off on purpose that There are

(10:11):
some overt physical tells like comments orjokes or things like that, and there's
some that are subconscious their posture,how they're organized, how they look,
their facial movements, their body movements, things like that. But there are
game based tells and there are physicaltells. And you're probably thinking at this
point, Okay, if you've neverheard this before, you don't even know

(10:33):
what the heck I'm talking about whenI say tells, So let me just
define that briefly as well. Tellsare words, actions, mannerisms, or
things that otherwise betray a person's thoughtsand intentions. So it's words, actions,
or mannerisms or other things that younotice or observe from a person's behavior

(10:58):
that betray their thoughts and intentions.So tells are something that are extremely valuable,
not only in an auction draft whenwe're a poker table, but in
life in general. Imagine if youcan go through life. Figuring out what
most people are thinking in their headwhen they're not saying. That's a fun
thing to know, right, That'sa fun thing to add to your skill
set just for life. So Ithink you're going to learn some of that

(11:20):
stuff today too, But we're goingto specifically apply it to auctions obviously.
But let's go at this from athirty thousand foot view and will just narrow
it down like I love to do. We'll go from broad to narrow.
But let's start off with three generalideas that you just have to apply to
this entire conversation. So these arereally like governing principles that you got to

(11:41):
have in your head, and they'resuper important. So don't I know that.
I'm always like telling you that everythingis important. But you can't figure
out tells in the human psychology partof auctions and what we're doing if you
don't have these three things in yourmind all right. Number one is tells
and behavior that you observe. Itcan cut both ways. The things that

(12:05):
you observe can cut both ways.It is all about context. You cannot
simply look at somebody and say theydid this one thing, and therefore they
are about to do this. Thatis not how this works. It is
an inexact science. It is onethat you can master and you can do
it without education, without a lotof difficulty. You just have to spend

(12:30):
time on it. It's just atime thing. But you do it through
observing the tells in their context.And that leads us number to number two,
which is that once you observe them, you can only learn from them
if you follow them out to theirlogical end or to the end result of
what you observed. So let's goback over that. Number one is these

(12:52):
tells cut both ways, so it'sall about context, and that flows into
number two, which means that thatcontext can only give you the answer if
you follow it to its conclusion.I know that sounds simple, but it's
really not, because a lot ofpeople will say, we'll observe something and
they'll say, oh, well,that was interesting, or that guy did
this when he raised me there onthis pot, or that guy did this

(13:15):
when he bid. He scribbled somethingout on his piece of paper when he
bid, and you know what theydo, They stop right there. They're
like, oh, that was interesting, and then they never figure out what
it meant. And that's just theabsolute critical step that people miss they don't
follow it through to its end result. Now, sometimes you have to wait
for that result. You don't alwaysget the result. Let's say somebody bids

(13:35):
and you see them do something alittle bit odd. You're like, well
that was interesting. You're not necessarilysure what it says or what it means,
but you know that it meant something. And then if you turn your
brain off and don't figure out whatit meant, well, what good did
that do you? And I mean, I mean it did a little bit
of good because you're observing their behavior, but if you don't know what it

(13:56):
led to, it doesn't matter.Sometimes you're not gonna get that result.
But even when you're not getting theresult, if you're cataloging that behavior,
you will eventually see a result thatsays, oh, okay, that's what
that behavior means. All right.So the tells can cut both ways based
on the context, and then youfigure that out by observing the end result.

(14:20):
Don't forget that critical critical step.None of this works if you don't
observe the end result and the finalthing, the final governing law. Here
we've got these three here tells cutboth ways. You must observe the end
result. And the third one iswe're dealing in probabilities here. I said
this about the Rashie Rice thing whenI was talking to my Patreon subs a

(14:41):
couple of weeks ago. I'm nothere to be like, it's one hundred
percent going to be four games forRashy Rice. That's dumb, okay,
And that's dumb if you're thinking thatyou're going to just be able to figure
this whole stuff, you know,this whole science of psychology and human behavior
with definite answers. That's not howthis works. That's why psychology has been

(15:01):
around for thousands of years and it'sstill being refined and we're still figuring things
out. The brain is complex.We're dealing in probabilities. And I'm going
to talk about Mike Carrow here injust a second, and talked about him
last year, but he talks aboutprobabilities in his book as well. He
has a book of Poker Tells,and the book is all about it has

(15:22):
this percent probability with this type ofa player or at this type of a
table. It was all about probabilitiesand what you can expect to gain from
perfecting your ability to read these people. So it wasn't about hey, if
he has this, then he's gotaces. That's not how it goes.
It's probabilities, all right. Sowe're talking about context around the clues,

(15:48):
because they can cut both ways.We're talking about making sure we observe to
the end, and also that weunderstand that just because we observe something doesn't
mean it's one hundred percent true orfalse. It's a probability thing. I
think they're about to do this,or I think that this problem means this,
and then you observe whether or notyou're correct. So those are your
three governing laws there. Now Iwant to talk about Mike Carroll's and I

(16:12):
don't want this to be confusing becauseI call them governing laws, maybe governing
rules. Okay, we've got MikeCarroll's two great laws, but we've got
my own three governing rules. Let'scall them the five rules of Stuff.
No, but I want to talkabout Mike Carroll's rules. But just because

(16:33):
I think that he is really thegodfather of this kind of stuff, and
not everything that he says applies directlyto auction drafts, but man, a
lot of it does. And Iwent back and looked back over his book
and some of my notes in thebook, and it's just it's such an
interesting book. I want to readit again. The book is called Mike
Carrow's Book of Poker Tells. That'sall it is. Mike Carroll's Book of

(16:55):
Poker Tells. It's an older book, but man, it's so good.
And he lays out two things rightat the beginning of the book that I
think make the rest of the bookalmost obsolete, which is kind of funny.
It's sort of like being a victimof your own success. You know,
the Game of Thrones thing, itwas so good in the first four
seasons that people got bored or gotupset or got demanding that it be better,

(17:18):
when in fact it was one ofthe greatest shows in the history of
television. That's kind of the samewith thing with Mike Carroll. He nails
the entire psychology of human tells intwo rules or two laws that almost make
the rest of his book obsolete.But you understand what I mean here when
I say it here in just asecond. So the first great law that
he said, and that I've toldyou about before, is that people are

(17:41):
either acting or they aren't, andif they're acting, decide what they want
you to do and then disappoint them. Obviously, the converse applies too,
if they're not acting, you knowwhat they want you to do, but
they're acting or they aren't, Andif they're acting, decide what they want
you to do and just point them. That's Caro's great law number one.

(18:03):
And his second law is one thatwe haven't talked about before, but I've
sort of tangentially hit on it,and that's called the law of loose wiring.
And I love this one probably morethan any other thing I'm gonna say
today, because sometimes you just can'taccount for what people are gonna do.
I'm in a tournament the other night. I've got a decent stack of chips,

(18:25):
nothing amazing, but the blinds areabout to go up. I look
down at ace King of diamonds,and two things happened in this hand that
proved the law of loose wiring.First of all, I was short enough
that I could have simply shoved myace King of Diamonds into the middle to
take the chips in the middle,because the blinds and andies were high.
If I had done that would havebeen a completely defensible play to shove my

(18:48):
chips in, but I didn't,and I had some reasons why I didn't,
But what it comes down to ismost of the time, I'm probably
going to shove my chips in,And if I had done that, I
believe everyone would have folded and Iwould have just in the pot in the
middle and moved on with my tournament. Instead, what happened is I made
a three and a half x rays, So the big line was one thousand.
I made it thirty five hundred togo. And the reason I did

(19:10):
that is because the big blind hada shorter stack, and I thought,
well, I want to make itbig enough that I can get away from
a real monster behind me, butalso big enough that the big line's going
to shove all his chips. Andif he feels like a hand, he
wants to see five cards with sohe's really trying to induce a shove from
the big line. Well, whatends up happening is the small blind calls
and he's kind of like just justragy, just crappy player, and he

(19:34):
calls, and the bigline folds andI'm like, oh no, what just
happened here? And the reason Isay that this law applies to two things
that happened in his hand is numberone. I kind of acted a little
bit randomly there myself by not shovingmy chips in, which I normally would
do. And on top of that, the guy in the small blind acts
pretty randomly by calling with a reallybad hand. So the flop comes out

(19:59):
Queen three. I have ace kkeof diamonds and it's Queen three three with
two diamonds, so I have twoovercards to the board, plus I have
a diamond draw and the guy checksit to me, and I decide just
to rip it into the middle andtake what's in the middle, and he
calls and he flips up a sevenand a three. So the flop was
Queen three three. He'd called mepre flop. He called a preflop raise

(20:21):
with a seven and a three.If that doesn't demonstrate the law of loose
wiring, I don't know what does. But I compounded the problem by not
ripping it into the middle before theflop. So there's two weird things that
happen there, and it proves Caro'slaw of loose wiring. People are going
to do random stuff. They're goingto do things that are a little bit
unpredictable. And I'm going to addon top of his law that not only

(20:45):
are people going to do weird andrandom stuff, but they're also going to
make mistakes, So you can't discountthat part of the law as well.
The loose wiring comes down to peoplejust get flustered and they make mistakes too.
I've told this story on the showbefore, but I absolutely think it's
hilarious. We had a draft afew years back where there's this guy.

(21:07):
He's drinking a bunch. He wasdoing just fine during the draft, and
then at some point he just wasover the top intoxicated, and like ten
minutes later, he's faced down ina bush in the parking lot. But
that's a different story. But hestarted saying as we're bidding, he would
bid to a certain point, andthen he got tired of bidding or didn't
want to bid anymore, and hewould just say, done deal, I'm

(21:29):
done. And we're all like,wait a minute, set, like are
you serious, Like you're just tellingus that you're done bidding A done deal.
We've been saying done deal in thatleague since that happened. It was
like five years ago. Six yearsago. I don't even know how long
ago it was. We've been sayingdone deal at that auction ever since.
It's hilarious, but it illustrates animportant point. Let people tell you.

(21:51):
Okay, people are going to tellyou what they're doing, but sometimes it's
not predictable, and that's the lawof loose wirings. Sometimes you don't know
what they're gonna do, and it'sbecause they don't know what they're going to
do sometimes, so people are goingto do random weird stuff. They're going
to tell you what they're thinking ordoing. Let them tell you, but
also realize that sometimes they're just goingto make mistakes. So Caro's two laws

(22:14):
are fairly simple. Find out whatthey want you to do and then disappoint
them. And also don't discount thefact that people are either going to make
mistakes or do random weird stuff.And that's what makes this thing that we're
trying to do today so hard.It's difficult, but I think there are
some things that I've found that arefairly reliable, and we could talk about
those. Let's talk about our twodifferent types of tells. We have our

(22:37):
game based tells for auctions, andthen we all have our straight up physical
tells or things that people do thatmake us able to figure out what their
intentions are without them telling us.And I want you to understand that this
is not this conversation cannot possibly bea comprehensive coverage of all the telles that
are out there. And as Carosaid, you know there's hundreds of ten,

(23:00):
there might even be millions of tells. But really what he's talking about
is there's millions of combinations of thesetells. So if somebody does X or
Y, it may be one thingor another in a vacuum, but if
you put them together, how dothey interact off each other? And then
when you add a third variable ora fourth variable, you quickly get into
the hundreds and thousands of combinations ofthese tells. So we're not here today

(23:22):
to give you a comprehensive view.We're here to give you a framework for
how you can start to understand thesethings by your analysis in the moment.
Rather than me telling you this tellmeans this. As I said last week,
we're no longer doing that. Thatisn't what we're doing here. I
am going to have some tells todaythat I believe point to certain things,

(23:42):
but there tells that you should beobserving, and observing whether or not Hey
Drew was right, it means thisor Drew was wrong. For this guy,
it means something different. So I'mnot here to tell you this means
this exactly. I am going togive you some ideas about some things that
I found to be have a highLFE of probability. But again, we're
dealing with probabilities and we're also dealingwith an accumulation of observed clues. So

(24:07):
keep in mind that that's really whatthis is. And when we go back
to the first thing I said wascontext matters. These tells can cut both
ways, and context matters, sowe always have to keep our eye on
the big picture when we're looking atthese things. My buddy and I we
used to laugh about a guy thatwas at our poker game that thought that
if he saw this one certain thingthat a person did, that it meant

(24:30):
this. Oh, this person's bluffing. He just had this one thing that
he thought meant something, and heput all his stock in that. That's
not what we're doing here. Ohno, he did the thing. He
wants to bid more. He lovesthis player that's not what we're doing here.
You always got to keep the bigpicture and realize the context. A
lot of times it's just going topoint you to a fairly simple answer.

(24:51):
It doesn't always have to be superdifficult, you know. An example of
this is, Okay, well,I observed him. He did this with
his hands. Then he did thiswith his pencil, and he wrote something
down, and so I figure outthat when he does this with his hands
and his pencil, it means thisreally just zooming out on the thirty thousand
foot view. He just really neededthe guy. He just needed the guy

(25:12):
who's betting on him. He likedhim. Okay, so let's not lose
the forest for the trees. Justbecause somebody does something that you observe doesn't
automatically mean that you're correct. Butkeep the big picture of the context in
mind. Always zoom out and say, does my observation of this moment fit

(25:33):
with the big picture as well?And that's when you put those two together.
You put this, Hey, Iobserve this, I observe this microtel,
I observe this thing that he didin the past, and then oh
gosh, he needs this player.That all fits together to point to this
result. That's what we're doing here. It's an accumulation of observable clues.

(26:00):
All right, Well, let's talkabout some of those observable clues. We
have the game based clues, andwe have the physical clues, the clues
or the tels or whatever you wantto call him. I don't give a
crap what you call him. Chadgotta call out Chad's punk ass, you
know what. Let's just go onlike a twelve minute ran about how much

(26:21):
Chad sucks. Now I want tokeep this short. We'll do a ten
minute rant on why Chad sucks.Chad's been paying me three dollars a month
for the Patreont instead of four dollarsa month, and I have half of
mine to drive out to the Midwestand beat those eight quarters out of him
for the last two months. Ohmy goodness, it may or may not

(26:45):
have gotten quezy with a couple ofseltzers tonight nuts here in the Davenport basement
as we record our episode. Ohmy gosh, let's get back on track.
What are we doing here? Yeah? So, look, game based
tells, physical tells. We're gonnatalk about both of them, and for

(27:06):
both of them. The most importantthing that you can remember before you're able
to do any of this is quitesimple. You have to have a baseline
for the behavior of the person thatyou are observing. This is what a
polygraph is, That's what a liedetector is. And what I love about
this point here is that I don'tthink that's one of those big revelations or

(27:29):
anything at all. And it goesback to what I say all the time
that a lot of times you knowthese things instinctively or intuitively, but you
have to be told that they're correct, or be told the nuts and bolts
of how they work before you're goingto internalize that in fact, you are
doing something correct. And I wantyou to keep that in mind here,
because I really believe the ability toobserve all this stuff is in you.

(27:55):
You just really don't know how todo it yet. You don't know how
to pay attention. And I'm goingto tell you it's hard. It's hard,
and when you are forcing yourself todo it and you just want to
be having fun, I mean afantasy draft them with my buddies. I'm
cracking jokes, I'm cracking beers,whatever, I'm hanging out in the Hall
of Fame with some cool people havinga good time. I get that you

(28:18):
don't always have to be on here, So do with this what you want.
But I guarantee that this stuff isin you. And that's really important
for me to have you know thatthis stuff is in you, because it's
not difficult to start getting a baselineon people and then figuring out when they
vary from that baseline. So creatingthat baseline is huge, and then you

(28:41):
start to get a sense of whatthis person is like when they vary from
that baseline. And I'm going tobring this all back around to that point
at the very end. Here youwill get a sense of a person based
on all these things that they're tellingyou if you take the time to observe
them, catalog them in your brain, and then start to work on the
observation of the variance from that baseline. And it comes down to an idea

(29:06):
that I say all the time whenI talk about poker and when I talk
about auctions, when I talk aboutdaily life, people like to lie a
lot. I get that, butyou really have to believe people until you
can't. And that sounds kind ofdumb, and it's one of those things
where I get clients all the timewho are frustrated by, Hey, this
person's doing this to me or doingthat to me, And I called the

(29:26):
police and the police said, well, they didn't break any laws. What's
that about. It's like, youknow, I mean, they're right,
the person didn't break any laws.We know they're about to. But this
isn't minority report with Tom Cruise.You can't arrest somebody for being about to
do something, and you can't startbasing your actions on something you believe about

(29:47):
a player. I can't tell youhow many times I've sat down at a
poker table and somebody's just going crazyand betting and raising blah blah blah,
and every time they turn over theirhand they have a straight or a flush
or a boat or it's like,that person's not crazy. You think they're
crazy, and you think they're playingaggressive and really they're just hitting cards.
So you have to believe people untilyou can't if they show you that they're

(30:07):
bluffing, if they show you thatthey're running you up on a bid that
their market price enforcing against you,then you have to react. But until
the time that they until such timeas they show you that, then don't
react, okay, because I'll tellyou this, it is a beginner's mentality
to always think that everyone's trying topull one over on you. I'm here

(30:30):
to tell you that the best auctiondrafters, yes they're trying to keep you
off balance, and yes they aredoing things not to tip their hand,
but they're rarely going out of theirway to just complete it comp just to
completely put a false personality out there. They're rarely going out of their way
to just bluff you all the timeand to just sell you on something all

(30:51):
the time. Now more often thannot, they understand that there are people
in the room that they just needto play ABC against. I just need
to do things in an auction roomthat are straight up the middle for the
most part, because I'm going tohave the advantage over just about anybody in
that regard. And I'm here totell you that I would put this at
over eighty percent. I put itat eighty to ninety percent. That there

(31:11):
are that many people in your leaguesthat do not worry about tells and do
not worry about trying to hide theirtells from you. Believe them and believe
what they're showing you until you can'tcreate that baseline and then believe them until
you can't. But here are someways that we can concretely talk about that,
and let me sprinkle some examples inhere as well. The first thing

(31:32):
is what I like to call gamebased tells, and those are based around
bidding and nominating, but also someimportant ones about roster constructions that we haven't
talked about before. And I gota couple examples there that I think you're
really going to hook into. Butlet me talk about bidding. First of
all, bidding is one of themore easily manipulated factors. Is one of

(31:53):
the most easily readable things in adraft because they're telling you something with the
they bid. Every time they bid. You just have to pay attention to
it. So the first one Ilike to ask is when do they bid?
When do they bid has several levelsThat means. Number one, when
is the first time they open theirmouth? Is it the second round,

(32:14):
and it's the first time they putin a bid. Is it the first
player and they bid? So it'snot just when they bid during each player,
it's when they choose to enter thedraft and start bidding, but also
when they decide to bid, whendo they bid during the bid clock?
This is one of those online tellsthat's really something that you can lean into.

(32:36):
And I want to point out hereas a side note that when we
talk about all these things that wecan do, a lot of them have
crossover to online auctions. But we'rejust going to chop off a whole portion
of today's lesson that you really can'tuse in online auctions. But that just
means that you need to push youredges even further in the online realm by
trying to read people's bidding patterns,like we're talking about right here. So

(33:00):
when do they bid? When didthey enter the draft with their first bid?
Did they continue to be consistently involved? But then also when do they
bid during the clock? I knowthat in my leagues, I am not
only in the leagues, but I'mthe auctioneer as well. I've done that
since the beginning. And there's apeculiar thing that players in my leagues that

(33:21):
I am the auctioneer for and playersI see this everywhere. I see this
in analyst leagues, I see thisin home leagues. I see it everywhere.
There's a peculiar thing that happens thatI just don't understand. But it's
just part of the human condition andI've given up trying to understand it.
But I know that it has ahigh degree of being correct. Players have

(33:44):
the propensity to wait until the veryend of the clock to put in a
bid when they really want someone.Now, I know that seems opposite of
what it really should be, butwhen they really want somebody, I have
a cadence that I use in adraft where I say going once, pause,
going twice pause, sold. Iuse that cadence that I try to

(34:07):
keep it rock solid, going oncepause. I try to keep that rock
solid. I'm sure I'm not perfectwith it, but I try my best
to do that. And what Iget is people rely on that. And
so there are managers in every leaguethat I do this for. I think
I'm the auctioneer in three leagues,and every league I do it for.

(34:29):
There are certain players that always waituntil I say going twice before they bid,
and I'll be staring at them whileI'm saying going once, and while
I'm saying going twice, and theymight be looking at me and I'm not
even involved in the bidding. It'sbetween two other people, and after I
say going twice, I look atthem like, hey, are you gonna
do it? Are you gonna bid? Like I don't slow down, but

(34:52):
I know it's coming. So forsome reason, it seems like it would
be the opposite that if they're waitinguntil the end to bid, that they
really don't want that player, likeI got to spend another dollar. But
unfortunately, no, that's not whatthe tel means. When people wait to
bid till the end of the clock, they are really interested in that player.

(35:14):
I believe there is a high degreeof reliability in this tell when they
wait till the end of the clock, they are really interested in that player.
And what it means is that they'rethey're basically saying, I'm here and
they don't want to keep bidding,but they're going to because they really like
that player. So when do theybid? Do they bid early in the

(35:35):
clock, do they bid late?How are they bidding especially online? Do
they plus one a lot or dothey type in a bid? Do they
only bid when they're interested in aplayer? This is a huge one too.
This has a high degree of reliabilityas well. Novice players who don't
know what they're doing, they justknow that they like a player and they
bid on them. That's all theyknow. And we're going to talk about

(35:58):
this and nominations and strategies and whatever. But they don't know the cardinal rule
of the auction brief, which isto have a reason, have a reason
for everything you're doing. And sothey often do things and they don't have
a reason. They just think,I like the player, I'm going to
bid. But that's really nice foryou, isn't it. If they bid

(36:19):
and you know they're interested. Andthat's the only thing you have to know.
You don't got to know a lotof complex stuff. And like I
said, this is why I knowit's in you, because you don't have
to have a lot of complex analysisto know he bid, he likes this
player. That's about as simple asit gets, right. But you have
to be interested in that, andyou have to be locked into that for
it to matter for you, becauseif you're not watching for it, and

(36:40):
if you don't care, you're notwriting under a scrap piece of paper.
This guy only bids when he wantsa player, or this guy only bids
and he ends up with the guyhe follows all the way through, and
he ends up with the player whenthat's the only time he bids. That's
crazy, but it happens all thetime. You would not believe how many
times has sit at a poker tableand I see a guy who calls on
the flop and he calls on theturn. He's obviously on a draw,

(37:05):
and then the river hits like,let's say there's two diamonds on the flop,
he calls on the flop, hecalls on the turn, and then
the river is not a diamond,and he goes and they let out a
sigh and their shoulders slump, andit's like, okay, well, now
I can bluff you out of thispot. I have a seven high,
but I know you were on adiamond draw, so I'm bluffing you out
of this pot. That's what auctiondrafting is a lot of the times,

(37:30):
and it's not hard. I promiseit's not hard. A lot of times
we have the disgusted bidder, theanguished bidder, the guy or girl who
is frustrated when they're bidding. They'refrustrated because the price is higher than they
want. That person's probably going tostop soon, right. What happens when
they decide that they're going to jumpthe bid up. Remember Scott last week

(37:52):
from Yahoo Scott Pianowski, he talkedabout hes he likes his Priceline bit.
I think that this players worth eighteenbucks. I'm going to yell out eight
right when the bidding starts. Well, what does that mean? Because it
means something And this goes back tothe first thing I said leading off the
show. What does it mean whenthe person types in a bid? Or
what does it mean when a personjust jumps the bid right up to a

(38:14):
high dollar amount. It's the samething Scott was talking about the Priceline bid.
But let's say you're in an onlineauction and Christian McCaffrey is up for
bid. Here's an example that Ithink is really interesting because you could have
three different outcomes for this example.So let's say you're in an online auction
and Christian McCaffrey is up for bid, and a person in the draft room

(38:35):
types in fifty eight dollars. Let'ssay it's like six bucks, seven bucks.
People are clicking the plus one andthen all of a sudden it pops
up. A team has been fiftyeight dollars from McAffrey. That means they
typed it into the box and hitbid and jumped up to fifty eight dollars.
Well, what does that mean?And that's this is the thing where
I talk about where number one contextmatters and number two it's an accumulation of

(38:58):
different factors. Here, we can'tjust put a read on somebody because they
typed in fifty eight dollars. However, that is information, it's not nothing,
so it has to go into ourcatalog. So we start to catalog
this and figure out what does thismean. Well, it can mean a
couple different things. I can comeup with like three of them off the
top of my head. Number one, let's say this person already paid sixty

(39:21):
five dollars for Bjhon Robinson, sothey've already landed a sixty five dollars running
back and they just typed in fiftyeight dollars on Christian McCaffrey. What do
you think that person's doing and whatdoes that bid mean? Well, that
seems pretty simple, and that unlessthat person's a maniac and they want to
spend one hundred and thirty dollars ontwo players their market price enforcing they decided

(39:44):
that hey, if they get stuckwith McCaffrey. They're cool with it for
fifty eight dollars, but really theyjust want McCaffrey to get up to where
Robinson is at sixty five, Sothey typed in fifty eight. That's market
price enforcing. If you want tolet that person out McCaffrey for fifty eight,
maybe that's a mistake taking them outof the draft. They're done.
They're done. They've got seventy bucksto fill the rest of their team their

(40:04):
smoke. Okay, So that itcan mean that thing, it could also
mean this. Let's say this isChristian McCaffrey lasted until the twenty second nomination.
Nobody nominated the number one player onthe boards for twenty two nominations.
This player just typed in fifty eightdollars. When that happened, you go
look at their roster. They haveno players on their roster. In fact,
you realize you really haven't heard fromthis player much at all until they

(40:29):
typed in fifty eight dollars. Whatdo you think they're doing? Well,
they're not market price enforcing, right. This seems like a pretty shrewd player.
This seems like a player who hadChristian mccar Christian mccarfrey. This seems
like a player a manager who hadChristian McCaffrey highlighted on their page as somebody
they were going to end up within the draft. They really want them.

(40:51):
And what about the fact that theytyped in the fifty eight That matters
too. They didn't just walk thebid up to fifty eight. They typed
it in, So that has aneffect on your calculus as well. So
that's what I mean by the contextand by the accumulation of factors. If
somebody types in a bid, itcan mean several different things. You have

(41:12):
to put all of it together.You have to aggregate all of your observable
clues into a catalog in your brain, and it'll spit out an answer that
sounds difficult on its face, butI promise you it really isn't. Once
you start doing it, you'll seehow easily all these factors relate to each
other, and then your brain willcompute the outcome fairly quickly and simply.

(41:34):
The better you get and the furtheryou go along with it. What about
other game based tells. We cantalk about nomination strategies. The simplest tell
that I can give you for nominationstrategies is the one I talk about all
the time, and it's the onethat you can remember if you don't remember
anything else about nominating tells remember this. Pay attention to whether a person ends
up with a player or not whenthey nominate them. Pay attention to how

(41:58):
much they bid on a player theynominate them. Sometimes I'm gonna bid.
I'm gonna put a player up thatI have no interest in, but I'm
gonna bid on them for a littlewhile to make people think I had an
interest in. Just oh, Idropped out because it didn't like the price,
but I'm gonna bid a little bitto make them think that I wanted
that player. You need to bedoing the same thing, but on top

(42:19):
of that, you should be lookingat other people. You would be surprised.
Once again, I'd say it's northof eighty to ninety percent of players
do not think about the fact thatyou can get information based on their nominations.
You can get a ton of information. I know players in my home
leagues that only nominate players they like. Now, they don't always win them,
but they're always in it till theend, and if they continue to

(42:43):
go higher, then you think theplayer should go. Let's say a player
is a twenty three dollars player andthey're at twenty six dollars and it doesn't
look like they're slowing down. They'regonna pay twenty eight or twenty nine.
You know that, and you cancontinue to go at them. But when
they nominate somebody, they always endup with them. It's crazy. There
are people who do that, andthere are people in my home leagues.
I know which ones they are,and I'm always going to rake them over

(43:06):
the cloths for some extra money.How about this? How about an online
nominating tell And this one is onethat I find to be very reliable.
You can tell players that are notprepared to be doing what they're doing when
it's early in a draft and theyjust nominate the player at the top of
the queue, either because they timedout, because they weren't prepared, or

(43:28):
they simply said, I don't knowwhat to do and they just picked the
top player on the queue. Youwere hoping that near the end of the
first round you might get to nominateTravis Kelcey, but he was at the
top of the queue and the onlineautomatic nomination was Kelsey. That is a
very reliable indicator that this person reallyis not tuned into what they were supposed

(43:50):
to be tuned into. And thiscan also change during the draft. Keep
that in mind. And that's somethingthat when I talked about the jack five
hand last week, my calculus inthat hand consistently changed and shifted throughout that
hand. And that's what you're doinghere a lot of times. And this
is a sleeper thing. Specifically,sleeper only has a thirty second bid clock,

(44:13):
excuse me, a thirty second nominationclock, and a ten second nomination
clock. In a thirty second nominationclock, it's a lot easier for somebody
to scroll down to find someone,but in a ten second nomination clock,
that becomes much more difficult. Andyou often see people just getting auto nominated
because they weren't ready for their nominationwhen it was their turn. Now,
again, that tells you that they'renot prepared, that they're not top level

(44:36):
drafters. But sometimes it can simplybe a mistake because the ten second nomination
clock ran out. Another thing Ilike to I don't know how much of
a tell this is, but anotherthing I like to observe is a player
who has the idea that when theyjust got a player, a high level
player from a certain position group,They've run right back to that position group

(44:58):
and nominate somebody else who's similar.Now I am somebody who does this a
lot, so I'm not going totell you that this is just some unforgivable
sin, but I think it's amistake and I think it's hurting us because
of the same concept that I rolledout last week on my Patreon network about

(45:19):
renting space in people's minds with playersthat are still on the board and have
not been auctioned off yet. Solet me go back and say this before
we move on from nomination strategy tellsa favorite move of a lot of players
is, hey, I just gotJosh Allen, so I'm going to turn
around and nominate Jalen Hurts. Andit's an easy nomination. And I understand

(45:40):
why people do it, because nowyou have a top level quarterback and you
want other people to burn their moneyon top level quarterbacks as well, so
you hammer away at that group ofplayers. But I'm not so sure that
that isn't a negative and net negativefor us. I think it's a negative
ev move. And the reason Ithink it is because of the same thing
I talked about with Jonathan Taylor onthe Patreon network. And let me explain

(46:05):
briefly here that when that money isstill yet to be spent, you are
renting space in several people's minds forthat player. And as soon as you
nominate the player and the person sold, then the other managers in the room
now have clarity on the fact thatthey're not getting that player. So you

(46:27):
just get Josh Allen. You turnaround and you nominate Jalen Hurts. That
allows somebody else in the room tonumber one, know what the market is
and now that they can just bidup next to what Alan was, You're
not creating any scarcity there really,And then on top of that, you
know that at this point, Okay, you got Allen for twenty six and
they just got Hurts for twenty four. Well, what if three people want

(46:51):
it Hurts after Alan went, you'retaking up seventy two dollars off of the
total cap instead of the twenty fourdollars that Hurts just went for. So
a favorite move of people is togo back to the same position group after
they bought an elite player and nominatefrom that position group. I think that
is a mistake and I think it'ssomething that you can watch happen in particular

(47:13):
people in your option. The finalgame based tell here really centers around cap
analysis for the most part. Acouple of different scenarios here that I think
illustrate this really well. The firstone would be, let's say that Trevor
Etn is on someone's team. Now, he is the RB seven right now

(47:34):
in ADP. Basically he's a lowend RB one. He's already on someone's
team. But then somebody calls outJonathan Taylor, and that person who has
Etn on their team bids on JonathanTaylor. You don't even have to know
whether or not they're going to buythat player or not to know something.
You know they are not done atrunning back yet. In fact, they're

(47:54):
not done by a long shot.Because Etn is already on their team and
Jonathan Taylor's ranked higher. That meansthat person is likely going to buy another
high priced running back even if theydon't end up with Taylor. This is
going to matter for you in yournominations later, so you really have to
pay attention to this. And thatflows into my next example, which is

(48:15):
about quarterbacks. And I believe thisis probably one of the ones I see
most often is that early in adraft somebody will call out a quarterback that
is a lower ranked quarterback and they'llget them really cheap, and they'll do
one of two things from that pointon. They'll either rest and say cool,
I got my cheap quarterback, orthey're going to go after an actual,

(48:37):
more elite quarterback, a top sevenor eight type quarterback. So the
thing I see a lot of timesis last year, a perfect example was
to at tag of Iloa was areally polarizing player, and if there was
money out of the room in anauction draft, Tua wasn't going to go
for very much money. I gothim for a couple bucks in two different
leagues. He was like two dollars. So if somebody goes and it's a

(49:00):
player like Tua, or let's saythis year, like a Jared Goff or
something for two to four dollars orKirk Cousins, and then Joe Burrow comes
up for nomination, that person withthe two or four dollars golf or Tua
bids up to fourteen dollars for Burrowand then they drop out. What do
you know, they didn't complete it. By getting Burrow. But this tells

(49:21):
you something extremely valuable and a lotof people won't be paying attention in this
moment about the fact that this TUAperson bid up on Joe Burrow. What
does that tell us? It tellsus they're not done a quarterback yet.
In fact, not only are theynot done, they're not done bidding on
a possibly elite quarterback because they werebidding on Joe Burrow. What's that going
to do? Well, it's goingto influence your nominations later and it's going

(49:44):
to be absolutely huge for the futureof your roster construction if you're relying on
a cheap quarterback or going after oneof those mid range quarterbacks that this person
might be going after. In thesetwo examples, it's really important that you're
observing their behavior through the game.Did they continue to bid on a running
back after they already landed etn Didthey bid on another quarterback after they already

(50:08):
had a two dollars quarterback? Youknow that's going to influence your draft later
in the draft. You have tobe observing those moves they make while this
thing is going on. Okay,well, we are getting deep into this,
and I'll tell you what I saidthat we're going to try to go
an hour but might not happen.Look, it's not going to happen because
this is such a deep topic.And I know you know this, but

(50:30):
I have to say it again.We're not here to exhaustively hit this topic.
I feel like I'm just barely scrapingthe surface of some of these things
and we're an hour in. Butthere's a reason for that. It's complicated,
and we have to do our bestto just spit out some of these
things and try to figure out whatthey mean in our own draft rooms.
And that's the best I can do. We've talked about game based tells.

(50:52):
Let's talk a little bit about humanbehavior and the human psychology. So refer
back to Mike Carrow's laws at thebeginning, find out whether somebody is acting
or not, and then disappoint thembecause they want you to do something because

(51:14):
they're acting or they're not. Theywant you to do something. They're trying
to guide you a certain way,so disappoint them. But in an auction
draft room it looks a little different. But I will say this, like
I said before, eighty to ninetypercent of the people in your room are
not guarding their intentions. A lotof times people do subconsciously guard their inner

(51:35):
thoughts by the things they do orthe way they act, but they don't
realize really what they're giving off.And I said it earlier. Let them
give that stuff off. Let themjust radiate their intentions, because they will
do it. You just have tolearn how to recognize what they are.
So creating your baseline and human behavioris something that's really it's probably the most
difficult part of this whole process becauseit requires you to watch them and see

(52:00):
little things that they do and thencatalog those for the results, you cross
reference them. Maybe that's thirty secondsapart, maybe it's an hour apart.
I saw them do X and thenthey ended up with why output. If
that comes an hour apart, that'sharder. But if it comes thirty seconds
apart, because you're bidding on thesame player, that becomes extremely predictive.

(52:22):
So the general idea is people don'trealize what they're giving off, and you
can just capture the stuff that they'reradiating and use it against them. Some
easy ways to do that, well, how do they set up for the
draft? When they come in thedraft room? Do they have a laptop,
Do they have some scratch pieces ofpaper? Do they have a magazine

(52:43):
from June? What are they doingwhen they set up? Are they organized?
If they're online, they're on time? Are we having to call them
and remind them that we have adraft and that the draft has started,
or that we're waiting to start thedraft until they get there. Are they
in the online chat room? Arethey chatty? Are they pumped up a
lot of people? Just they giveyou stuff and you don't even have to

(53:06):
ask them. They'll just say,oh, I've never done an auction before.
I'm so nervous. Thanks Bro,thanks for telling me that important information.
I told this story last summer,but it was so funny. Right
before it was the night before theKing's Classic and we had a new guy
in our room and I think hewas from Fantasy Pros. And I met

(53:28):
a guy from Fantasy Pros and Iwas just like, oh, yeah,
you know, we've got so andso in our room tomorrow. And he's
like yeah, And I'm like,oh, so, you know, has
he done this before? I wasjust kind of fishing for information and the
guy looked at me and he waslike, I'm not telling you that,
which is awesome. I loved it. But you'd be surprised how people will
just tell you crap and you don'teven have to ask for it, or

(53:49):
if you do a little gentle probing, they're just gonna give it all to
you. They're in a draft room, they're having the time of their life.
They're like, I'm in an auction. This is so much fun.
And guys, this is on mysecond one and the first one. I
blew all my money right away.You're like, thanks, thank you.
So just let them, you know, look at the online chat, look

(54:09):
and see what they're saying. Arethey drinking? This is a live one,
but are they drinking? Drinking mattersa lot, man, It matters
a lot, and it matters inthe plays you're gonna put on somebody.
You're gonna make a different play onsomebody who's drunk and somebody who's not.
Another easy one. How loud arethey in general? Just how loud are
they? Are they in the chatNonStop? Are they running their mouth and

(54:30):
a live draft NonStop making jokes?Are they outgoing? Are they a bit
crazy? You know what, They'regoing to be out of money soon.
If they are, they're going tobe out of money soon. But until
they are, they're dangerous as hell. Dangerous as hell because they're going to
ruin your draft if you let them. I'm not saying that because a person's
out going, they spend their money, they're an idiot. But you can

(54:51):
find the person that's going to bewild, and they're dangerous and more often
than not, just smart to stayaway from them. It's smart to really
watch what you're doing when you're dealingwith them. How about a person that's
quiet. There can be two differentreasons they're quiet. They're quiet because they
feel positive about what they're doing.They feel sure. They look at their
posture. Are they quiet and confidentbecause they're just relaxed. They're sipping a

(55:16):
beer, they're sipping their water,they're having a snack. You know,
they're thrown out a random bed,they're looking at everybody in the room.
They're relaxed and they're quiet. Thatdoesn't mean they're nervous. They look confident,
but quiet can be nervous. Lookat their eyes. Are their eyes
darting around the room. Do theylook intimidated? Are their shoulders down?

(55:36):
Are they crossing their arms like adefense mechanism, How do they handle the
pressure of the draft starting look attheir breathing. Breathing is really a big
one. And when we come backto the baseline, the baseline is the
most important thing, because, asI've said in Summer's Past, one of
the most easy things you can dowhen looking at human behavior in human psychology

(55:57):
is when they suddenly do something differentthan they've been doing all along, Just
like when you're playing at a pokertable with a raging agro player, a
player who just never stops raising andbetting and betting and betting, and then
all of a sudden, the flopcomes out and they check. All right,
they have nine aces. If theycheck on the flop they did something

(56:19):
different, that's gonna be the samething. The outgoing guy or girl who's
loud, is making jokes, who'stalking about this and that, and all
of a sudden they get quiet andthey start bidding. That means something.
The change in behavior means something.So when you're watching them, you're watching
what are those behaviors. The breathing, The breathing pattern is a really big
one. How is their body?Is their body still is it jiggling a

(56:42):
bunch are they nervous and pay attentionto clusters of tells. Two clusters of
micro tells, I call them microtells. What are they doing with the
pen in their hand? What arethey doing with the mouse? Are they
clicking it over and over? Arethey staring at their screen? Are they
staring at you? Are their eyesdarting around the room? I lean back
and looking at the ceiling. Whatare they doing? What are these microtels?

(57:04):
And a lot of times they comein clusters. They're a little bit
nervous, so they're breathing speeds up, their legs start shaking, they start
tapping, they start clicking the endof their pen. Those are clusters of
microtels. Those all tell you thatthey're nervous. Are they nervous because they
want the player? Are they nervousbecause they're not going to get the player?
What's the reason for their nervousness?Zoom back, figure it out.

(57:28):
Say, Hey, this person bidforty one dollars. It doesn't seem like
a lot of money, but theydon't have an RB one yet and they're
trying to land their RB one.They're nervous about whether or not that forty
one dollars is going to work becausethey need the player. Okay, all
that should go into your calculus,all right, they really need the player.
They're nervous about it. Forty two, they're probably going to bid forty
three. Again, just an exampleI'm pulling out of my head. But

(57:52):
you see what I'm talking about.These clusters of microtels all add up to
a picture that we have. Sowhat it comes down to is all of
these different things create that picture,and the accumulation of those things create that
picture. And what it is isit really is a picture. And that's
what I want to end this portionof the show with. It really is

(58:15):
a picture. It's a snapshot,and it's a sense that you get.
And I hate saying that because it'sso nebulous. But people talk about instinct
all the time. Well, hehad a great instinct for it, But
I'm here to tell you that veryfew people sit down at anything they do
and have an instinct for how todo it well. You can have athletic

(58:35):
ability and be good at something justbecause you have athletic ability, but learning
how to play the game, learninghow to be to cover two, learning
how to manipulate the linebackers with youreyes, before the snap. All that
stuff is stuff that you learn onhow to play the game, and that's
all instinct that's developed through repetition.And I understand that you can't always do

(58:59):
auction when you want to, butthat repetition is what develops the instinct.
And don't ever let anybody tell youthat instinct just oh, it just happens
to you. No, it happensthrough hard work and through grinding through all
these tells and looking at all thedifferent factors that could be involved in what
you are staring at or what ishappening on the computer screen. And so

(59:22):
I hate saying, well, youjust get a sense of it, but
I'm sorry to tell you that isexactly what happens. And when you pull
all these things together, you geta sense of this person's presence. You
get a sense of their emotional presencein the room. It doesn't have to
be in person, it can beonline. You get a sense of this

(59:44):
person. And I can't define itany further than that, but you're pulling
together all the different threads and whatit does is it all braids together in
a beautiful tapestry that leads to apicture that you can see an you can
see it in your mind's eye.And I say this all the time,
and I know that it's frustrating forpeople that haven't spent a lot of time

(01:00:06):
with this kind of thing. Butjust spend your time working through these things
during an auction, in fact,practice it in everyday life, and it
gets easier and easier and easier.And I can't tell you how many times
I've been sitting there at a pokertable or in an auction and I think
to myself, he's about to doX because of why, and then it

(01:00:30):
happens, And that is going tohappen to you think about all these things.
Go back, listen to this allagain for the rules, the general
principles that you want to apply,but also the ways that you go about
figuring out all of this stuff arethe ways that you end up with what
we call quote instinct, but alsoa sense of a person's presence. And

(01:00:53):
that sense is how you are goingto crush your options. Well, holy
crap, that took forever. I'mlike goad him ry goad. I was
hoping to do forty five minutes onthat, about fifteen minutes on players.
But let's run right into the playersbecause I think that stuff was fun and

(01:01:15):
I enjoyed that conversation. Wait aminute, what conversation. I enjoyed that
part of the show. But let'stalk about my get Greedy players. And
I picked out four guys that Ithink are pretty interesting. From one simple
perspective, I think that sometimes wemake this game a little bit too hard,

(01:01:38):
and so my get Greedy players arethe players that I'm thinking to myself
right now, I think we're alljust going at this a little bit too
hard. I think we're like adog that got a bone back in March
and he's just gonna wear that thingout until it's gone. And that's what
we're doing right now with some ofthese players. And so I've got four

(01:01:59):
guys that I really believe or getgreedy players, because I think there is
certain there's a certain perfect storm wherewe could grab these four players plus a
couple other elite players and end upwith an absolutely unbelievable roster if things fall
right. So I'm gonna tell youabout somebody that I think can be your
wide receiver three, somebody I thinkcan be your wide receiver four, and

(01:02:22):
somebody who could be your RB oneand another running back that I think can
be your RB two. So we'refilling in your RB one, your RB
two, your wide receiver three,your wide receiver four. And I think
we're doing it in a really greedyfashion because it may not happen. Of
course that's not gonna happen. ButI love this because I love trying to

(01:02:44):
get greedy and put together this unbelievableroster. And we're gonna do it with
the you know, the old timeon a tradition here at the Oxen Breek.
What are we even doing here?What are we doing here? What
are we doing with these four guys? I think that we are just grinding,
We're not at the bone a littletoo hard, We're not yet into

(01:03:04):
the middle of July, and Ithink we just have a tendency to just
pick pick, pick, pick pick, instead of just taking that thirty thousand
foot view and saying, what dothese guys have to offer? And maybe
it's just a little bit more simplethan we actually think. So here's my
four get greedy players. Number oneis someone that I think that you can
get as your RB one who Ithink is not being treated like an RB

(01:03:29):
one right now, and that isSaquon Barkley. I am not a Saquon
Barkley fan, and if you hadBarkley last year, he was pretty frustrating.
And I also want to say Iunderstand that right now Barkley is being
drafted as the RB six, Sohe is being drafted as an RB one
right now. So people out thereyou're listening and saying, well, of
course you can get a measure RBone, he's the RB six. That's

(01:03:51):
not what I'm saying. I wantto use something that we talked about last
week to get Barkley cheaper. Andthat's the magnification of people's opinions about certain
players as we move through the summer, and one of those players that I
continue to see being devalued is SaguonBarkley. I'm not saying that people don't

(01:04:12):
like him because he's RB six.Of course he's up there. But like
I said earlier in the summer,he went for thirty dollars in a mock
that I did thirty bucks. Ibelieve that's the magnification of our general industry
malaise towards Barkley. I understand thathe's changing teams and sometimes that's not a
good thing for a running back.But isn't it possible we're picking a little

(01:04:34):
bit too hard at this? Hey, Jason Kelsey left. Oh they love
the toush push folks, step back, hit the you know, like you're
looking at your computer screen, Hitthe minus button a couple of times,
and look at the whole document.Barkley has never played for a winner.
He's always playing from behind. Henever gets to salt away the clock with
ten fourth quarter carries in a goalline touch. He's never had that in

(01:04:57):
his career. He's also been playingwith a bottom ten offensive line almost his
entire career as well. So whathappens when he changes teams? He goes
to the second best O line.I believe I saw that just earlier this
week that the Eagles O line evenwithout Kelsey because Jason Kelcey retired, Even
without Kelsey, they have the secondbest O line in the entire league.

(01:05:21):
And let me tell you a surprisingstat that I bet you didn't know.
DeAndre Swift was eighth in the leagueand carries inside the ten yard line almost
tied with one Jalen Hurts. Now, I understand Hertz is not good for
his goal line proposition. I getthat and I get the red flags we
have with Barkley, but use that, use those red flags, and use

(01:05:42):
the general nervousness from the fantasy community, because I think that you can get
Saquon Barkley cheaper than you should beable to get him as your RB one,
so that is, get greedy playernumber one. I just think that
we are picking apart Barkley far toomuch. He's going to a vastly improved
situation, and we know he isa top runner. I think it's no

(01:06:04):
more complicated than that. Turn yourbrain off and if you can land Barkley
in the low thirties, says you'rRB one, you just got to do
it. Let's see, let's moveon to a wide receiver, a wide
receiver that I think you can getas your wide receiver three on your team.
And this is how it's done,folks. Mister Mike Evans, I've
talked about him already this summer,but I'm going to continue to talk about

(01:06:25):
him until that ridiculous ADP changes.He's still sitting right down at wide receiver
fourteen and ADP and I understand thered flags Dave Canalis leaves. People are
talking about how he's the QB whisperer, and it's good for the offense when
Canalis is there, Evans is ayear older. I get those red flags,
but let me tell you a coupleof things that are completely wild to

(01:06:46):
me. He's played ten seasons inthe NFL. Guess how many times he's
missed more than one game once,folks, Once, he's played in fifteen
or more games, and nine ofhis ten seasons and he's played thirteen or
more games in every single season.Now, another incredible stat. He only
has two seasons in his entire careerunder seventy receptions. In those two seasons,

(01:07:11):
he had sixty eight and sixty sevencatches. He's never had a season
under one thousand yards. He's hadthirteen or more touchdowns than three of his
last four years. And what doeshe get. He gets more disrespect.
I disrespected him last summer. I'mnot doing it again this summer because I
can hear the narrative about Evans justlike it was last summer. Oh well,
we're not sure about this and we'renot sure about that. But let

(01:07:32):
me tell you something. Every timeyou turn around and look at an advanced
metric for quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield popsnear the top of the list. He
had a great year. Now itmay he may stumble a little bit without
Canalis in the fold. But Igot Mike Evans for nineteen bucks in a
mock draft a few weeks ago.Nineteen dollars, that's stupid. But if

(01:07:54):
you can get Mike Evans for lowtwenty dollars range, that's exactly how you
build a monster ross. Who cares. If the guy has sixty seven catches
for one thousand yards and six touchdowns, he's your wide receiver three. That's
fantastic numbers for your wide wide receiverthree. Both of these players are suffering
from the multiplication, the non linear, the exponential hate that the auction room

(01:08:20):
allows you to take advantage of.How about another wide receiver. I bet
you think you know who I'm goingto say here, Christian Watson. Right,
you got half of it right.It's not Christian Watson. It's Christian
Kirk. And I believe we canland Christian Kirk as our wide receiver four,
which would make him a beautiful flexplay on a weekly basis. But

(01:08:44):
right now I'm seeing him go inthe mid teens and some drafts. But
he goes cheaper than that in alot of drafts, And we're also parlaying
the magnification and the exponential hate inan auction draft room with Christian Kirk right
now, his the general range.He's being drafted as a low end wide
receiver three. And what did hedo when he was on the field in

(01:09:10):
the last couple of years with Jacksonville. Well, let me say this,
the Jaguars added two field stretchers thisoffseason, gave Davis Brian Thomas. Those
guys are guys that do different thingsthan Christian Kirk does. Last season,
Kirk was ninth in the league inslot targets. He had sixty one targets

(01:09:30):
from the slot and he had atwo point one to eight yards per route
run number out of the slot,both fantastic numbers. So he's top ten
in slot targets and he's got overtwo yards per route run from the slot
as well. Those are good numbers. But how about in twenty twenty two
he was the wide receiver thirteen atthe end of the year, the wide
receiver twenty two in points per game, and then last year he was wide

(01:09:55):
receiver twenty three before he got hurtwide receiver twenty seven in points per game.
But right now he's going as alow end wide receiver three. That
means that he is literally being draftedbelow the floor we've seen from him in
the past two years in Jacksonville.I don't know what we need to talk
about here. What are we doingwith Christian Kirk in low end wide receiver

(01:10:17):
three territory? I just don't understandit. Last year, through the games
that he played before he got hurt, he averaged seven point six targets,
five point one catches, and almostseventy yards a game. His pace was
one hundred and twenty nine targets,eighty seven catches, and almost twelve hundred
yards. You give him six touchdowns, just six touchdowns with those numbers,

(01:10:41):
and he would have been Dan dingDing wide receiver thirteen last year. So
he finishes wide receiver thirteen in twentytwenty two, and he was on pace
to finish as wide receiver thirteen againlast year. So we're talking about a
guy who is in wide receiver twoterritory for points per game, but underline
wide receiver one territory in total pointsfor the year. If he had stayed

(01:11:04):
on the field, and right now, is it unreasonable to think that you
can get Christian Kirk for twelve dollarsin an auction? No, not unreasonable
at all. Fourteen bucks. Fifteenbucks. Who cares If you go into
a draft and you say I'm goingto spend forty bucks on my wide receiver
one, and then I'm going toturn around and spend thirty on my wide

(01:11:24):
receiver two. That's seventy bucks,and you've got a dynamite top four wide
receivers because you can get greedy withplayers like Kirk and Evans that people are
just not respecting. And there's onefinal guy that I want to talk about.
By four get greedy players. I'vetalked about Barkley, Evans and Kirk.
Here we go. I might payfor this. But the final guy

(01:11:48):
I want to talk about is KyronWilliams. I've gone back and forth about
Kyron Williams about fifty times since theseason ended about whether or not I'm going
to care about him. But there'sa couple big reasons why I I'm going
to draft him in my auctions ifI can grab him as my RB two.
The first problem that I have withthe analysis that he's not going to

(01:12:09):
do what he did last year.Is that Blake korm wasn't exactly drafted really
high. He was drafted in thethird round. That's not a lot a
ton of draft capital for a runningback. I know that the NFL is
not drafting running backs as high.So I understand that Koram is a threat.
I'm not trying to say he's not. But he's a third round draft
choice. He's not exactly a worldbeater at any one certain thing. I

(01:12:33):
think he's a nice player, andI think that he's a threat there.
But really, what people are talkingabout is chopping off the high snap shares
that Kyrien Williams had last year.And that's okay, But let's talk about
something that nobody else is talking about, and that is the unbelievable consistency that
Kyron Williams showed when he was onthe field. Last year. He played

(01:12:55):
twelve games. He was a topfive running back in half of those twelve
games. Six out of twelve gameshe was a top five running back.
And how about top twelve? Howabout an RB one? He was an
RB one and nine of his twelvegames last year, seventy five percent of
his games, he was an RBone. Those are incredible numbers. And

(01:13:17):
let me say this, the pointsper game, the PPR points per game
is a really interesting stratification for runningbacks. Christian McCaffrey had twenty four point
five points a game, and thenKyron Williams was second with twenty one point
three. Nobody else topped eighteen pointsper game last year, So Kyron Williams

(01:13:38):
was a full four points clear ofthird place in points per game. So
let's say that he takes a haircut, and let's say that McVeigh decides suddenly
to do something that he really hasn'tever done in the past, which is
to employ a committee. Let's putthat aside for the moment. Let's just
say that Korum spells him more oftenbecause they want to try to keep Kyvienn

(01:13:58):
Williams on the field. Let's takeeighty percent of Kien Williams numbers and see
what it does. Okay, what'seighty percent of his twenty one points a
game. It's about seventeen points agame. And where would that have put
him last year? RB six RBsix. So right now, you can
get Kyen Williams for a low endRB one price in most snakes. But

(01:14:21):
in the auction we're leaning into theidea again that we did with the other
three players, which is that thereis a non linear double counting happening in
auction draft rooms. The magnification theexponential height for Kyron Williams in most auction

(01:14:41):
draft rooms says that he's going tobe a better deal than we think he's
going to be. Now, maybethat doesn't happen, maybe he's more expensive
than we think. And I'm nothere to tell you that any one of
these four picks are a locked foranything. But I think that we all
come back to the same idea thatI always talk about on the auction brief.
What are we doing here? Whatare we doing here? We've got

(01:15:03):
Saquon Barkley, who's an immensely talentedrunning back, playing behind the best offensive
line of his career, playing ina system that allows him to get carries
inside the ten, no matter whatpeople say about the toush bush. We've
got Mike Evans, who's never beenunder a thousand yards. We've got Christian
Kirk who's who's at wide receiver thirteenpotential going in the bottom of wide receiver

(01:15:26):
three territory. We've got Kyrien Williams, who put up an incredible season fighting
a third round running back. Whatare we doing here, folks, get
greedy, isolate these players. Tryto go after these types of players in
your auction and then pair them withelite players that everybody wants. Okay,
I gave you. I gave youa couple of top running backs there,

(01:15:47):
but I gave you a wide receiverthree and four. You can still go
out and get AJ Breen Brown,AJ Green. You can still go out
and get AJ Brown, Jaylen Wattell. You can still go get players like
that and put them with Evans andKirk. This is not saying that you
have to pick these four guys,but get greedy. Ask yourself, what
are we doing here? Don't makethings so difficult on yourself. Sometimes fantasy

(01:16:10):
football is just not that hard.And again I'm not saying that these are
shoeings, but sometimes the analysis isn'thard. Maybe these guys don't have great
years that I think they're gonna have, but the analysis itself, sometimes it
just isn't that difficult. And Ibelieve that ties together with the entire theme
of today's show, don't make itany more difficult. On yourself than you

(01:16:32):
have to. When you see somebodyas nervous, when you see their breathing
heavy, when you see they juststarted a bid and hadn't bid before,
when you see that they nominate somebodyand then they always end up with them.
When you see that they nominate somebodyand they never end up with them,
when you see that they bid forthe first time in three rounds.
You don't have to make it difficult. You just have to be present.

(01:16:54):
Pull it all together. It doesn'thave to be difficult. You just have
to be present, all right,Well, good Guylly Molly. That's the
longest I've talked all season long,except for the first episode. I knew
that this was going to be alittle bit longer. I didn't know it
was going to go that long.But I just love this topic. And
I tell you what I could tellpoker story after poker story that tells you,

(01:17:14):
these tells, that tells you thesetells. I felt like last week,
like I said, was a littlebit whatever, But this week,
I feel like, was super fun. And I hope you enjoyed this conversation.
So I'm not going to delay thingsany further. We have a fun
guest this week, and keeping withthe theme a fun for episode six of
the Auction Brief, we have IanHarditz from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. Ian

(01:17:40):
is just a really fun guy tolisten to, and hey, if you
don't follow him on Twitter, you'remissing out. He is absolutely hilarious and
his Twitter account is one of myfavorite follows, if not my favorite follow
out there, So go follow himon Twitter. We'll get all that information
here in a second, but let'swelcome in Ian Hartitz to this week's Discussions
with Drew. Time for Discussions withDrew, in depth conversations with the brightest

(01:18:04):
minds in the fantasy industry. Welcomeinto this week's Discussions with Drew. Our
guest this week is Ian hard It'sfrom Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. And Ian
is somebody that I think you allknow. But if you don't follow him
on Twitter, you need to becausehe's one of my favorite Twitter follows because

(01:18:25):
of not only the video and actualpoints that he makes about fantasy football,
but really, I mean I followhim for the memes. Let's be honest.
Anyway, Ian's become a good friendof mine and a fantastic fantasy football
analyst. So we're going to hitsome tough situations on the show today.
But thank you so much, myfriend for coming in for a second summer
in a row. Yeah, bro, great to be back. And you

(01:18:46):
know, really been loving playing pokerwith you and the fellas you know pretty
often here over the last few years. Has been a lot of fun.
We were talking before about getting theexpo going and Canton where we get to
all hang out again. So dude, it's a fun little fantasy circle we
got going here in the great stateof Ohio. It is, and it
just you know, I sort ofstumbled upon this group of fantasy folks here

(01:19:08):
in Ohio and it is so muchfun. Got a poker game coming up
there with a great Chris Allen herein about ten days. So excited for
that. And of course the Cantonget together was one of my the highlights
of my year every year, butlast year especially we had a blast that
Saturday night poker game was fuzzy atbest, that was so much fun.

(01:19:31):
You're going back this year? Ohyeah, I am. I mean,
shout out Chris Allen for having theparty house for everyone to hang out at.
And this year I'm staying at thehouse, so they're certainly ready to
turn it up. But yeah,man, you're not kidding. I remember
stumbling out of there probably close tofour am, and I couldn't find an
uber and it was a good fourmile trek back to my hotel room,

(01:19:51):
and I was like I started offI had enough, you know, confidence
where I was like, oh,I can do this. I walk all
the time, and I got maybelike two blocks down to road and I
was like, you know what,I'm gonna check the uber app one more
time, and luckily we got backin one piece after that. Man.
But yeah, it's again a tonof fun every year just seeing everyone in
the industry. You know, whenI know, you got you know,

(01:20:12):
your loss stuff going on, soyou're not exactly at a loss of hanging
out and seeing people every day oranything. But you know, for me
and a lot of other people thatare you know, full time and kind
of work from home in the industry, you know, I don't miss going
into an office every day, butat least a couple of times a year.
Man, it is good to seethe folks that would otherwise just seeing
through the screen. It is andit does something for you, you know.
It fills you up because there arejust people that I have met through

(01:20:36):
only this job, and that's theonly way that I know them, and
they become some of my best friends. You know. I count you and
Chris and there you know, Brian, Drake and and I get to see
those some of those people once ayear. Now it's better for you and
Chris living closer than me. Butlike I said, Drake, you know,
he's one of my best friends.Talk to him almost every day,
but I see him once a year. So Canton is awesome. And look,

(01:20:59):
folks, I say this every timeI bring up Canton, but you
don't have to be in the industryto come out and hang out. Ian
and I will. We'll do youknow, buy you a drink, do
a shot with you whatever. Weare fun and approachable, folks. I
can promise we're not intimidating whatsoever.So come out to Canton. But well,
hey, we've we've got less thana month. But right around the

(01:21:23):
corner, you know, as wesit here and talk, it's July tenth.
This will be released tomorrow on theeleventh, but we are only about
ten days away from training camps.Rookies reporting reports too long, Oh,
my gosh, it's exciting. Andthere are so many situations that I look
at at this time of year andI tell myself that I need help.
I'm supposed to be the guy inthe mic who has all the answers,

(01:21:45):
but I need help on some ofthese things because it is hard figuring out
what we're doing here. And wewill get some answers in training camp,
but I want to hit some ofthose hard situations because hey, let's face
it, I look up to youas an analyst and a guy who knows
what he's doing, and that's whythey pay you the big bucks. We're
gonna give you the hard ones today. Okay, sounds good, brother,
All right, man. So thefirst one is out in LA and I

(01:22:05):
keep talking about the Chargers because wereally just don't know exactly what that's going
to look like because of all thechanges. But the Chargers wide receivers are
interesting to me because nobody cares aboutthem, and there's got to be somebody
there catching some passes that's going tohave some fantasy value. Now I don't
know how much fantasy value. Maybethat's something you can tell us, but

(01:22:26):
right now I'm looking at Josh Palmer. And Quentin Johnston, they're ADPs are
low fifties, upper sixties, youknow, so just really almost free.
And DJ chark Is is free atwide receiver eighty nine. None of these
guys are exciting to anybody in thefantasy community right now. Palmer wasn't terrible
last year. He had a onepoint seventy one yards per route run and

(01:22:50):
he appears to be the guy whowe want, and that's what the ADP
tells us. But nobody's excited aboutit because nobody thinks that there's gonna be
any pass attempts to go around,somebody's gonna catch the ball. What do
we do here? Man? Itis arguably the single worst group of skill
position players in the league, becauseas much as you want to say hardball,
he's gonna run the ball. He'sdone it at every step of his

(01:23:12):
NFL career, you know, incollege as well, obviously, and all
the great things he achieved at Michiganand before that Stanford. But you would
think looking at this wide receiver roomthat we could look at the running back
room and then be like, oh, okay, well, these guys are
obviously going to be fed, butthey're really cheap too, because we also
don't know what's going on, andwe haven't already banged up Gus Edwards Dobbins
coming back from the Achilles. Andthen you know everyone's favorite sleeper Kamani Vidal,

(01:23:33):
who at the end of the dayisn't even guaranteed a roster spot after
being drafted in the freaking six rounds. So really is just you know,
the opposite of an embarrassment of riches, you know, surrounding Justin Herbert right
now, I have not gone outof my way really for any of these
offensive weapons, you know, earlyon in drafts. I think there's a
case in best ball Land where you'retrying to do some things, you know,

(01:23:55):
especially with week seventeen correlation, wherethese guys are cheap enough, miss
out on your stacks. Okay,then I can look at Palmer and Herbert
and grab a Patriot bring back sortof player. But you know, for
most people out there in an auctionleague and in redraft league, where you
know you're just trying to beat yourbuddies, you know from home and all
that, I just have a hardtime getting behind anyone. I mean,
yeah, I hear you on JoshPalmer, and I think once you get

(01:24:16):
outside the top fifty or so widereceivers in fantasy, you do see his
name pop up when you're just lookingfor raw targets, and could he maybe
make you know a good amount returnyou know, wide receiver four production at
wide receiver five price tag. Sure, but again it's just more of a
Okay, is this ever gonna bea guy I'm actively going and you know,
feeling confident about putting into my fantasylineup, And I just don't get

(01:24:39):
that impression really from anyone. SoLat McConkey, you know, I do
think deserves to be the first oneoff the board. But even then,
man, the guys he's going around, I'd rather take Brian Thomas Junior,
who's going to be in a morepass happy Jaguars offense, has a great
chance to just really eat into that, you know, fantasy friendly role that
Calvin Ridley had last season. I'mtaking Deontay Johnson over at lat MC,

(01:25:00):
who again is a target hog,one of the best separators in the league.
Christian Watson, who I think willbe Jordan Love's number one wide receiver
if those hamshrinks ever quit barking athim, so you know they are all
cheap, but when we do haveyou know, down passing volume and honestly
down passing efficiency as well. It'sone of those things where I am of
the belief that Justin Herbert is areally freaking good NFL quarterback. But you

(01:25:24):
know, justin fields average of samal yards pretentp is Justin Herbert last season.
So I do think a lot ofthat had to do with the supporting
cast and everything. But we justgot done talk about how bad the supporting
cast is. So I think thisis an offense that's gonna be low on
volume, low on efficiency, probablylow on scoring opportunities. And because of
that, man, even though theprices aren't really all that expensive, I

(01:25:45):
have a hard time, you know, getting behind anyone as anything other than
just this late round start. Soif anything at cost Quinton Johnston, you
know, bid a couple of dollarson him, I guess that's fine.
I do hope that the Chargers usehim more than just that low eight OTTs.
Give him some touches, because theone thing he flashed last year was
the ability after the catch. Hehad a one against the Bears where he
broke two or three tackles and lookedlike a first round pick for once,

(01:26:09):
you know, throughout the entire season, but again, most likely answer for
what charge you want to draft.I think it's just now I think I
agree with you, and I didn'teven put the rookie in there because I
wanted your takes on the veterans becauseI just don't understand what they're doing here
or what their play is. Maybethat's going to become more clear when we
get into training camp. Hopefully weget a few answers there. But yeah,

(01:26:30):
you know, the Quentin Johnston thingis weird too, because, like
you said, they liked his runafter the catch ability, and that's what
Staley went out of his way tosay was a reason they wanted him,
that was why they brought him in. And then I feel like they misused
him. I don't know, though, that we saw enough for us to
care too much. So let's moveon to the next situation here, and

(01:26:54):
that is also another LA situation,and this time it's the Rams. We
have a backfield that is a muchdiscussed backfield because we had Kyron Williams last
year, and when I went backand looked at the points per game finishes
of the runt top running backs.It was surprising to me that only Christian
McCaffrey and Kyron Williams finished over twentypoints per game. No other running back

(01:27:17):
finished over eighteen points per game.So you had Alvin Kamara at seventeen point
nine was number three points per game. It was that's pretty stark. So
for a guy that had that goodof a year last year, Kyron Williams
is really getting no respect at thispoint. I know he's still right around
RB seven or eight, which youknow, you could say, hey,

(01:27:38):
he's still a top ten running back. I get that, But the Rams
brought in Blake Korum as a thirdround selection. He's going right around bottom
of RB four territory. Why arepeople so nervous about Kyron Williams? And
do you think Korum is going togive him that much of a haircut on
his snap share? I think withKiren and he's still being drafted as a

(01:27:59):
top ten RB, I think thenerves is more so the kind of where
he's going overall. You're seeing himfall to around three a lot of times
in drafts. That's also just kindof the way the industry tends to be
moving a little bit more, particularlyin best ball, am, But I
think the argument is if you lookat what actually happened last year. I
mean, in Week one cam Akersled the backfield in touches, that happened,

(01:28:20):
and yes, Kyen was out therefor you know, more snaps slightly,
and then Acres had like seven carriesin the final driver too. But
they didn't enter last season saying okay, Kyroen, workhorse, here's your eighty
percent snapper. We had the restof the season. You know, that's
it. It really did take anotherdoghouse, another falling out from Acres for

(01:28:41):
Sean McVay to make that decision.So I think they want to try to
utilize multiple running backs at least toan extent more so than they did last
year. And that is obviously whythey used the Day two pick on Blake
Korum, who, not for nothing, does seem like, you know,
he kind of presents a lot ofthe same skills as Kyraen Williams. So
honestly, man, I do wonderwhy Kyroing gets a little bit of the

(01:29:03):
benefit of doubt ahead of someone likeJames Connor. And I don't want to
make the mistick I did last yearwhere I tended to look at you know,
Arbitrag's versions of guys the big one. I remember, I, you
know, one hundred percent wrong here, but I thought Darren Waller was going
to be, you know, thenext big thing, all the targets and
stuff. I thought he could stillplay very very wrong on that obviously.
But basically, even if I thoughtWaller could have been ranked as like the

(01:29:25):
tight end two or tight end three, that doesn't inherently mean the guys that
are ranked tight end two or tightend three or overpriced, they might just
be properly priced. So that's kindof where I am on Kien, where
I'm not actively avoiding him, butI do think there's some cost for concern
man like he is not like theleast injury prom running back in the NFL.
And while I don't make a habitof going into every single selection going,

(01:29:46):
oh, this guy's just gonna gethurt, I mean there are you
know, good resources out there,specifically Draft Sharks, you know, their
injury predictor and just injury history tool. It is fantastic, and they actually
go out and try to assign apercentage chance of guys being injured. And
Kyen this year has the fourth highestmark among all rbs, among all rbs,
one spot ahead of even James Connor. I mean, the dude had

(01:30:06):
how many you know, fractured foothigh ankle sprain was happening his first year.
Last year he broke his hand.At the end, he had another
ankle injury. I believe that kepthim sidelined for a few weeks. So
he's not a big dude. He'snot, you know, this really athletic
freak. There's a reason why hefell to the fifth round in the first
place. So good last season,for sure. I'm we only see him

(01:30:27):
he score more PPR points per game, but just we have this guy who
really did rely a lot more onthe touchdown upside. We didn't see him
consistently involved as a receiver, andI think Koran could do enough to again
just take away I don't know,thirty percent of that early down work,
and that could be enough to renderKyeren more so as a touchdown dependent RB
two as opposed to you know,the RB one game breaker he was last

(01:30:50):
year. So a lot of wordsto say, you know, I just
think Kyen isn't exactly someone that weneed to be going out of our way
for. I think he can getthe archetype that he is probably gonna give
us this year in the far laterrounds. Okay, that's fair, and
I was talking about it by myselfearlier in the show and saying, hey,
we could shave twenty percent off ofhis numbers and he still ends up

(01:31:12):
as a top six guy. Butif we're gonna shave thirty percent, yeah,
you're talking more top end RB tworange than you are talking RB one.
So I can understand the pricing doesn'tlook right there if that's the case.
So again we'll be looking at trainingcamp to see how much they are
raving about Blake Korum there. Iwant to talk about another offense that people
are just going crazy about, andthat's the Atlanta Falcons offense. There seems

(01:31:36):
to be it feels to me asthough there's some double counting happening here because
they lost Arthur Smith and then theyget Kirk Cousins. Now. I understand
how important quarterback is, and thequarterback play was not great last year,
but losing Smith getting Cousins is thatreason to have these guys push so high
up the board. I understand JonRobinson at RB three, that's that's reasonable,

(01:32:00):
But we've got Drake London as atop twelve wide receiver. Right now
we've got Kyle Pitts as I thinktight end seven. I like the players.
It feels like we're double counting theimpact of all the changes there in
Atlanta. What do you think Iwill say with Pitts? I mean,
the three things that really impacted themlast year were the bad quarterback play.
Okay, even if Cousins and Iam on the record, I think a

(01:32:24):
lot of people are assuming we're goingto get just the best version of Cousins.
Again, the best version of Cousinswas last year being propped up heavily
by a baller supporting cast. Youknow, Jay Jetta is obviously Addison and
Hockinson doing their thing, and youknow an offense that we saw Kevin O'Connell
get a lot out of guys likeNick Mullins with in as well. So
let's not pretend like Cousins has justbeen this consistent top five quarterback over the

(01:32:45):
last five six years. Man,we've been alive a bit longer than that.
But still versus you know, Desmondfreaking Rider and Mariota, it's a
quarterback upgrade. John Smith I thoughthe was better than the injured version of
Kyle Pitts last year John who's gonein Miami. And the injury side of
things, yes, we dig atconfirmation that was you know, they the
PCL and MCL or the patella.It was more than just an MCL injury.

(01:33:09):
It made sense that Pits again wascoming back longer. And doctor Jeff
Mueller, who's one of my favoritefollows in the industry, is on the
record, you know, saying hedoes believe Pits is going to be closer
to one hundred percent. So fromPitts's standpoint, I do think again,
if any of those three categories hadnot been checked, I would call the
tight end seven price tag a bitof an overpriced But he really has run

(01:33:29):
exceptionally hot this offseason, and that'skind of where it comes down to with
Drake London as well. Man.There's only so many wide receivers that are
actually you know, talented, havea good quarterback, they're in the age
range where we're not worried about redflags there they're healthy and everything, and
then also just are on an offensewhere we can realistically project them for one
hundred and thirty plus targets and again, Drake is just checking a lot of

(01:33:51):
those boxes. I mean, ifthey would have added Roma Dunze at one
oh eight instead of you know,their backup quarterback, I think that could
have changed a lot here. Butnow all they did was sign you know,
career complimentary number two, who Ijust honestly shocked they gave him that
much money in the first place,Darnol Mooney, and then traded for Rondeo
Moore, who personally I think shouldprobably be a running back full time at

(01:34:12):
this point. So it's one ofthese things where I think the Falcons offense
will maybe like seventy five eighty percentas good overall as a lot of people
you know, are kind of projecting. But when we have all the volume
probably being condensed around these three guys, I do see where the price points
are coming from. Because again,just once we start looking at the wide
receiver rankings, like if you wantto rank Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Junior

(01:34:33):
against some of these just baller,clear cut wide receiver ones ahead of Drake
London, I don't think you're wrong, But once we start looking at someone
like Brandon Ayuc, you know,is he better than Drake London, I
believe, so obviously a lot morecrowded offense. Chris Lave also dealing with,
you know, some questionable quarterback stuffgoing on, Nico Collins, crowded,
DeVante Adams age waddles number two inMiami. It's just, you know,

(01:34:56):
how much of the Cousins, youknow, increase can really you know,
be held against the London projection becauseagain he does seem to be checking
the four main box we have,so long story short, I'm pretty much,
you know, fine with the pricesthese guys are at. I think
Kirk Cousins and just the team overallis where I you know, I'm a
little hesitant. We shouldn't be rulingout Man the potential for Cousins, who

(01:35:18):
is thirty six coming back from aright torn achilles, not the left.
He's got to be pushing off thisthing so like they're remember how Burrow freaking
looked in the first four weeks oflast year when his arm strength, you
know, and his ability to pushoff was a little bit hindered. Was
not pretty. We've seen Peyton Manning, Drew Brees great. I'm Hall of
Fame quarterbacks still playing awesome at theend of the career, and then when

(01:35:39):
father time comes completely dead. Imean Ben Roethlisberger after his elbow of surgery,
all of a sudden, couldn't throwthe football, you know, more
than twenty yards downfield with any levelof zips. So I think it's possible
that we see Cousins, you know, sadly have to go through something like
that. I'm not ruling it out, so again, more so, I'm
fitting the overall Falcons hype. Ithink the volume and even eighty percent of

(01:36:00):
Kirk that will be enough to getthese scope position guys probably you know,
meeting their expectation. Well, I'mglad to hear you say that about Cousins,
because I feel like I'm screaming intothe wind and nobody's hearing me.
I just don't know how we cansit back and say, yeah, Kirk
Cousins, this is awesome when weknow what debilitating injury he comes off of,
and he's not young. So thenon zero chance that we never see

(01:36:24):
the same Kirk Cousins again is there, and certainly early in the season that's
elevated as well. So I'm notsure that the risk is baked into these
prices. However, you make areally compelling argument there as far as London
and Pitts goes that there are someimportant boxes that were checked in the offseason,
and I need to get my mindaround that a little bit. We'll

(01:36:44):
pitch this last thing, like FancyLife projections. Joy McFarland does a great
job. He's one of only sevenguys projected for over one hundred targets.
So just removing the stuff that weknow from the past, and if we
just really focus on who is goingto begin the most opportunities, which tends
to relate correlate the best of fantasypoints. Again, I just think you're
gonna be hard pressed to start,like if you want to put Evan Ingram

(01:37:06):
over them just because of pure targetpotential, Okay, but I don't think
he's getting the same downfield opportunities.You know, I'm I totally get ranking
George Kittle ahead of Kyle Pits,But then we're getting the guys like Jake
Ferguson and David ni Joku and DallasGodder, who I'm not saying they can't
outscore Kyle Pitts. But again,I think once you start looking at the

(01:37:27):
bigger landscape, the guys being pricedaround them, their ADPs make a little
more sense. Yeah, great point. I think you've You've given me a
lot to think about there, becauseI've just been nervous about the Falcons rise
all off season. But okay,let's talk a little bit about another offense
that's on the other end of thespectrum, that is the Carolina Panthers offense.

(01:37:48):
Nobody cares about the Carolina Panthers offenseright now, as you can tell
from the prices of whatever pieces arethere that people are interested in, and
I would say interested with be stretchingit a little bit. People don't seem
to be interested at all. Iguess my first question is I want to
ask you about specific pieces, butis the Dave Canalis thing? Is it

(01:38:09):
that big of a deal, becauseI see I've seen some pushback on Twitter
recently that maybe Canalis wasn't the reasonfor all the success in Tampa. But
we've seen him make two stops ina row now with you know, Smith
and Baker Mayfield where he's really hada strong impact. Do you believe he
can have that impact on Bryce Young? I mean, I always believe that,

(01:38:29):
you know, the Jims and Joe'sare going to supersede whatever the ex's
nose are doing. But you cancertainly help what's going on. It should
be pretty easy to help things andCarolina Lord knows, the bar isn't very
high here. But similar to whatwe talked about with Kyle Pitts, I
mean, for Bryce Young, ifyou just want to focus on the three
main issues from last year, Okay, the offensive line was horrendous, constantly
under pressure. What did they do? They gave Dolphins right guard Robert Hunt

(01:38:53):
one hundred million in free agency andSeahawks left guard Damian Lewis fifty three million,
A lot of money to help fourto five the offensively, not saying
it's going to take them from youknow, PFF's twenty ninth rank group to
fifth or anything, but there's reasonto believe they could more approach average.
Same thing at wide receiver. Imean, this was I mean only the
Patriots actually had a worse combined openscore from ESPN, which helps track,

(01:39:15):
you know, separation going on.They got Deontay Johnson, who's been you
know, the poster child for separationover the past five or so years since
he entered the league. First roundpick on Xavier Leggett again, reason to
believe that part is going to increase. And then with the coaching staff,
I'm with you. I'm not youknow, ready to crown Dave Canalis as
you know, the next freaking youknow, Shanahana McVeigh out here or anything

(01:39:36):
like that. But the bar isso low here. I think he can
help things out and just things likeyou know, pre snap shift in motion.
We see teams like the Dolphins,the forty nine ers, the Rams,
you know, a top the leaguein this last year, the Panthers
were twenty eighth play action. Youknow, everyone's pretty aware at this point
of how much a cheat code thatcould be for offenses. Panthers last year

(01:39:56):
thirtieth. I mean even the screenrate, they were just twenty seven.
So even Canalis, you know,isn't exactly gonna take this team from worse
to first. I mean, ifthey can just be average man to your
point, they're gonna make some ofthese ADPs look awfully you know, affordable
and really smashable with some of thetalent they have out there. So you
know, Barr isn't high, buthey, the dude did help turn around
Gino and Baker and certainly got somegood fantasy production out of him. So

(01:40:19):
I will say, you know,out of all these guys, Deontay Johnson
Xavier Lega, those are the twoat costs that I think I'm looking the
most at because as we saw lastyear in the Canalis's Tampa Bay offense,
yes, Mike Evans put up thebiggest numbers, but I was more happy
to see just how condensed the passinggame was around the clear cut top two
options. Evans had one hundred andthirty six targets and govern had one hundred

(01:40:41):
and thirty So fully expecting this defenseto be horrible. You know again,
they didn't even really replace Brian Burns. They didn't have draft capital because they
traded all of it for Bryce Young. To make any meaningful additions. Focus
more on the offense should be youknow more. I know Canally says,
you know he's going to be stubbornwith how much he to run the football.
All coaches say that type of shitin the offseason. So a passing

(01:41:03):
game, it really centered around Deontayand Leggett. Hopefully Bryce Young just plays
a little bit better. We've seenTee Long, We've seen Golf do it
under similar circumstances. The guy wasthe first overall pick for a reason.
So I'm bullish on them approaching somethingcloser to average. And again, if
they can do that should yield someat least decent fancy results for people not

(01:41:23):
named Adam Delon this time around.Well, yeah, Deontay Johnson's slipped too
wide receiver for territory. Just nobodywants him. He's the only guy.
He's the only guy Drew that ourcommunity holds drops against. Not a single
person has brought up or cared thatPuka Nakua had four more drops than any
other player in the NFL last season, because guess what. They correlate with
targets, And I've had people belike, okay, well what about drop

(01:41:45):
rate. Deontay has a lower droprate, meaning that he's dropped less passes
relative to his targets and Tyreek Hillthan Jamar Chase and Deebo Samuel over these
past three seasons. So it's justall these Pittsburgh wide receivers man pickings.
Everyone's oh about that time he didn'tblock for you know, his player Chase
Claypool celebrated a first down, youknow, an opportune time, and just

(01:42:06):
something about Pittsburgh wide receivers. Ijust feel like they have these non issues,
kind of not saying they aren't nonreal life issues, but man,
give Deonte a freaking break. Andwhat quarterbacks has he gotten to play with
throughout his career? Right? Imean in wide receiver thirty nine, I
mean, what do we really investingif, especially in an auction, if
you can get him as your fifthwide receiver? Holy? Now, I

(01:42:28):
just I feel like in PPR leaguesthat's an absolute smash. Let me ask
you about Jonathan Brooks. He's rightaround bottom of white of RB three territory.
We saw Miles Sanders struggle mightily lastyear, and then we saw what
Canalis did with Rashad White and Tampa. How optimistic are you for Brooks coming
off the ACL and being a rookieand you know in that offense I've drafted

(01:42:53):
him. Sometimes it's an interesting rangehe usually goes in. He's not,
you know, my main target there. But I will say, on teams
where you get to him, youalready got your two rbs and you're just
looking for you know, some lateseason upside. That's more so kind of
like the lineup archetype that I'm morewilling to take a shot on him.
But man, you know, RamandreStevenson goes right around him, just got
paid. I'm far more, youknow, just thinking that Stevenson is gonna

(01:43:16):
have the chance to return this threedown role just one year removed from an
actual RB one finish. The Steelersrunning backs I think could have a chance
to again just be in a morerun first offense. Jalen Moore in best
case scenario, is a lot higher, I think than what Brooks can bring
to the table. I'm just youknow, it was a fun ten games
at Texas against Pac twelve defenses.Are we sure that Jonathan Brooks is really,

(01:43:38):
you know, this just game changingprospect. That's kind of where I'm
just a little bit worried about it. So coming back from the ACO,
I don't think it's surprised anyone it. Brooks just isn't overly efficient this year
because he is coming back from theinjury. I mean, how many guys
this year are we just saying,like, you know, post type buyback
on Tony Pollard, who's now gonnabe fully recovered. On Javonte Williams is

(01:43:59):
gonna be fully recovered. I mean, there's a good chance that Brooks.
I don't think he's gonna start theyear on the pup list, but he
probably is going to be on thatBreese Hall sort of trajectory where he gets
ramped up. And yes, BreceHall ended up meeting things just fine in
fantasy thanks to that sweet, sweetvolume. But man, Breese Hall's efficiency
freaking fell off a cliff last season. So it's a good thing he had
Trevor Simmy and Pepperingham with you know, sixteen targets and meaningless December games last

(01:44:24):
season. So you know, whenwe look at these running backs, it's
like, all right, how talentedare they? I think Brooks is a
good talent. I'm not trying tohate on that. I'm just not ready
to sit here and say he's histop five, top ten, exceptional talent
or anything. How's the offense goingto be? As much as I think
as I can take a step forward, if we had to sit down here,
you and me and rank all thirtytwo offenses with how many points we
think they're gonna score. I havea feeling the Panthers will wind up,

(01:44:46):
you know, in the bottom ten. And then even like what the workload
is going to be like Rashab Whitegot it done with Dave Canallys by dominating,
you know, just the overall kindof snap usage. He was always
on the field and every thing.But he had to because this really wasn't
a fantasy friendly offense in Tampa Baylast year. Their overall RB targets were
actually pretty low relative of the restof the league. It was just that

(01:45:09):
Rareshab White had the dominant role.So I don't think Chuba Hubber and Miles
Sanders are going to displace you know, Brooks atop the depth chart. But
could they actually just maintain something closeto a committee role that renders you know,
Brooks is more of this low endor you know RB two. I
think it's possible, So not goingout of my way for him. I
think he's a I mean, hopefullygets the pass down role. There's a

(01:45:30):
lot of question marks here for arunning back who again is probably going to
be operating in a not so greatoffense. Okay, well that's an excellent
breakdown. And I have to saythat Brooks's I have the same feeling every
time I get to him. Ireally want him to not be a starter
for me that I have to counton coming out of the draft. That's
just not anything I'm interested in.I will say he is one of those

(01:45:51):
if you're in a keeper league,like he's not. I've done some research
on this in the past, butif you look at day one, Day
two running backs, they're eighty pHe just regularly leaps bounds up between year
one and year two, so comingoff the injury and stuff, if you're
in a keeper league, I'd bemore willing to go at Brooks because get
him around eight, round nine orsomething like that. I think next year,

(01:46:13):
maybe after we see the Panthers hopefullytake a little bit of a step
forward. He has a nice,you know stretch in November December. That's
when I think we could actually seethis dude, you know, ramping up
into more of a top fifteen,top twelve ADP starting ahead of twenty twenty
five. All right, all right, well, look, I have a
couple other guys I want to talkabout. We're pushing thirty minutes here,
so let me get to a coupleguys that I am really interested to.

(01:46:39):
I have gone from May to now, swinging back and forth like a pendulum
on both of these guys. Thereare two wide receiver twos with a ton
of upside that people really like.But people seem to be copying to the
idea that maybe we were overdrafting themlast year, and that's Jalen Waddle and
Davonte Smith. Love both of them. Last year, I looked over at

(01:47:01):
Wattle's numbers, and I had alot of Wattle last year, so I
noticed when the targets weren't coming hisway. The targets were fairly steady,
but he only got double digit targetstwice the entire season. And Davante Smith,
on the other hand, he hadeight games with five or fewer targets.
That's pretty boy, that is nervousright there, right now. Wattle's

(01:47:25):
going right around wide receiver nineteen,Davonte Smith right around wide receiver twenty two.
They were right next to each otherlast year, and their points per
game finish at twenty three and twentyfour, So that seems appropriately priced.
But part of me wants to rageagainst that and be like, hey,
these guys are really talented dudes witha ton of upside, But we saw
what having aj Brown and Tyreek Hilldid to their target shaars. Is there

(01:47:49):
anything that we can say there's roomfor optimism here or are they just kind
of stuck where they are? Ithink the Wattle optimism would be. I
mean, we saw in that Jetsthe one game that Tyreek miss last year
and he became the one and what'she do? Immediately goes for you know,
a buck fifty and a touchdown orwhatever it was, So you know,
I would say, straight up,give me waddle. He does have

(01:48:11):
the higher ADP. So it's nota hot take or anything like that,
but I'm with you, man,like those none of those guys in that
wide receiver range are jumping off thepage for me. Honestly, once you
get past Drake London, I thinkyou have this kind of ten to twelve
wide receiver stretch where I'm not overlysold on any one of them necessarily being
better than the other guys. Like, yeah, I think Chris Alave I'll
performs DJ Moore this year? AmI one hundred percent certain? No?

(01:48:33):
Of course not. I mean CooperCup what if he comes back and does
his thing. He's wide receiver twentytwo, a Lave's wide receiver eleven.
So honestly, man, I foundmyself in this range sometimes, and I
know it's different in auction, whichyou know, makes it such a cool,
you know, form of fancy andeverything. But when I'm around and
I just have all these wide receivers, hey just give me Jonathan Taylor,
give me Saquon Barkley, give methe running back that's gonna get three hundred

(01:48:56):
touches, and I'll get a widereceiver, you know, shortly thereafter that.
Again, I don't think it's twodissimilar from the guy that people are
going after in round two. SoI will say for Devonte Smith, things
should look a lot more smooth inthis version of the Eagles offense. I
mean I mentioned the pre snap shiftand motion rates. I mean Eagles were
dead last by over six percent.I mean, any Philly fans out there
know how just elementary that offense reallywas throughout the season, so static,

(01:49:20):
and guess what, when you gottalents like they do, they were still
able to make it work, youknow, to a pretty you know,
awesome degree, at least for thefirst you know, ten or so games
of the season. But adding somepre snap shift in motion, which More's
Chargers ranked I believe fifth in lastyear, it's just gonna make life a
lot easier, so hopefully, youknow, the passing volume does uptick.
But yeah, man, you saidit. I mean it is a situation

(01:49:42):
where as talented as these number twosare, they are number twos. Like
we've seen now two years of evidencein both offenses that it's not one A,
one B. It's Tyreek and AJBas the one and these guys as
the twos. So just comes downto again, you know, how many
wide receivers you're trying to rack upearly, but you know, someone like
t Higgins going wide receiver twenty sevenlast year, these three guys were we

(01:50:03):
priced right next to each other prettymuch, you know, after the top
twelve or so wide receivers were offthe board. So Higgins is the one.
I've actually been drafting a bit morethan both of them because I feel
like his price tag is honestly onlyas low as it is because of offseason
kind of speculation that he was goingto hold out or maybe even be traded.
So again, you know, don'tate the player hit the ADP.
I don't have Waddle and Devonte ranktoo low or anything, but I'm with

(01:50:26):
you, man, where I'm strugglingto really go out of my way for
him. I mean, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore going a good you know,
half round round after him. SometimesI'll take that value when it means
I can add a legit, youknow, top five RB in their place.
Okay, So I wanted to springboard off of a player that you've
mentioned a couple times during the conversation, and that's Chris Olave because I went

(01:50:48):
back and I looked at what DerekCarr did last year, and if you're
watching those Saints games, it's hardto say that Derek Carr was a good
quarterback last year. But you know, some of his number show us that
he wasn't that bad. You know, he ended up throwing twenty five touchdowns
with eight interceptions. And Pro FootballReference has a stat that Adam Harstad football

(01:51:12):
guy and stat nerd loves to talkabout, and that's adjusted netyards per attempt.
Derek Carr was tenth in the leagueand adjusted netyards per attempt. So
I know that Carr didn't look likehe was doing a whole lot of good
things last year, but he wasreasonably decent as a quarterback. Yet Olave
finished twenty first in points per gamein PPR leagues and he still has the

(01:51:36):
ADP as you mentioned, of atop twelve wide receiver. How do we
square those two things? Do youfeel as though that a lave price tag
is reasonable? And how are youfeeling about him in general? Yeah,
it's interesting. On Carr. Hedid actually, you know, he tied
CJ. Stroud for the most threehundred yard passing games last year. Never
would have expected that, but youknow, just such as zero in terms

(01:51:57):
of rushing, it's hard to everget too excited about him in fancy lamb.
But yeah, man, if hey, if the NFL ever just decides
to become a strictly seven on sevenleague, I mean, Derek Carr will
be one of probably the top tenbest quarterbacks. His numbers from a clean
pocket are legit awesome. But youknow when he does get pressured, things
break down in a hurry. Imade this you know, meaningless metric,

(01:52:17):
but that's what you know. Thesummer months or four called a you know,
playing scared, and I took thingslike scramble rate eight ott, average
time to throw and you know,different things like that, and you know
it was car like finished thirty sixout of thirty nine. So when I
saw that, I was like,I think I might be onto something a
little bit here. But all thataside with Chris Alave, I think the

(01:52:38):
absence of Michael Thomas helps. Man. I mean, you know, it
wasn't that long ago. Well,I guess it was. It's starting to
get kind of long ago that hedid lead the you know, broke the
NFL record for receptions. But hewas out there not resembling that same guy
but doing his thing at least toan extent for the first half of the
year. But once he left,man A Lave ripped off wide receiver nine
nineteen sixteen, twenty seven, thirteen, done at sixty three and then twenty

(01:53:00):
six finishes again after Thomas was goneafter week ten, So the opportunity was
there. So the goal is justthat if Car and Lave year two together
in a better system now led byClint Kubiak, can hopefully just connect on
even twenty five percent of their missedopportunities. Man, I think that's where
we get to jump in, youknow, actual fantasy production. Because one

(01:53:23):
of the things I love the trackwith my Shoe report every week that I
published on Fantacy Life is unrealized airyards and that's just a fancy way of
saying. You know, we're measuringthe distance that was missed out when a
quarterback's throwing the ball to a widereceiver. Just a distance between that,
because you know, big difference betweena running back having five incompletions on checkdowns
that's going to be maybe you know, five or ten total unrealized air yards

(01:53:45):
versus a lave being opened deep andthen getting missed. You know, on
five forty yard passes, those wouldbe you know, two hundred unrealized air
yards. So last year, Imean, the only five wide receivers that
had over one thousand unrealized air yardsDeAndre Hopkins, Chris Alov, DeVante Adams,
Calvin Ridley, and Garrett Wilson.So I hear you car being back.
You know, it would be coolerif we had a quarterback upgrade there.

(01:54:08):
But man, just what we've seenfrom a Lave, you know,
grinding the film. I do believehe has a special talent. He has
ESPN's ninth best open score over thepast two seasons. So you know one
of these guys where yeah, hasn'tquite met the high end. You know,
just again fantasy, I guess expectations, but wide receiver twenty six wide
receiver nineteen finishes in PPR points pergame. I mean, Drake London is

(01:54:30):
a freaking wide receiver forty eight duringthe first two years of his career.
So we are expecting a jump,but we're expecting a jump from a talented
young hopefully as sending player and anoffense with very very minimal target competition.
My coworker and you know great friends, Wayne Joey McFarland, Fantasy Life Director
of Analytics. I mean, hewas bringing up to me the other day,

(01:54:50):
Like again, if you just lookat those four pillars talent age ended
up, you know, just targetcompetition, and then the quarterback, you
can argue that Ceedee Lamb has thebest four combination of anyone in the NFL.
If Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr canbe good to really good just from

(01:55:10):
an efficiency standpoint, which obviously Rogershas been throughout his career in cars defense
in those Gruden years and even thetwenty sixteen potential MVP before he got hurt,
he's done it before. You canmake an argument that Garrett Wilson and
Chris Alave had the next most completeprofiles. So we'll see what happens.
But uh, Chris A. Laveis someone that again, I don't think
he deserves to be pricing the topten you should be going out of your

(01:55:32):
way for. But I think he'sright at home in that wide receiver two
group that we talked about before,and that's how I see him. And
so when I see him sneaking upinto there, into that ten eleven range
wide receiver ten eleven, I getnervous about that, but I do love
him if he slips just a littlebit. All right, Well, let
me ask you about two other guysthat I'm sure nobody is spending a lot

(01:55:55):
of time sitting around staring at thewall thinking about these two guys. But
I have a problem, and that'swhat I do. So I wanted to
ask you about Brandon Cook's and JacobyMyers because we had a conversation about Brandon
Cooks and Michael Gallup last year,and when I went back to look at
Cook's snap shares, I expected tofind a little bit more of a equal

(01:56:16):
situation between Cook's and Gallup. Andwhat I found was that really wasn't true.
Cooks was on the field, youknow, way more than Gallup was
his route participation was over eighty percentmost of the year, courtesy of your
buddy Dwayne and my buddy Duane withhis utilization tool. By the way,
check out Dwayne's Fantasy Life utilization tool. It is amazing where I go for

(01:56:41):
route participations, snap shares, youknow, targets per run, stuff like
that. Check that out. Butyeah, so I expected to find that
maybe Gallup leaving was going to giveCooks a little shot in the arm,
but I don't know if that's true. And then on the other side here
talking about Jacoby Myers, we've gotDavante Adams still a top ten guy right

(01:57:02):
now in ADP because I think peoplethink, okay, well the quarterback situation
is going to be better with Minshew. Yet we've left Jakobe Myers for dead
down there at wide receiver fifty two. He was wide receiver twenty eight points
per game last year. What doyou think about these two ancillary pieces and
what you're doing with them. WithCooks, I mean, he's priced like

(01:57:23):
wide receivers sixty, And you know, I try not to go too hard
on anyone that's kind of that cheapand fantasy because they're not cheap for a
reason don't need to be bashing theguys. But we'll be thirty one in
September. And you said it.I mean, he really was the unquestioned
number two ahead of Gallop last year, particularly after their buye when they heavily
started rotating Gallup and honestly, JalenTolbert so Cook's nine year low and yards

(01:57:45):
per catch last season, he didscore the second most touchdowns of his career
and that surprisingly like actually made himwant a fantasy's more touchdown dependent wide receivers.
I mean, the highest percentage offantasy production from touchdowns among the top
fifty receivers last year, Courtland,Christian Watson, and then Brandon Cooks so
five or fewer targets than eleven ofseventeen games. So you know, could

(01:58:05):
they ramp it up this year?I guess, but you know, kind
of had every opportunity to last yearand what the Cowboys do? They just
for sped Ceedee Lamb more targets thanany other player in the NFL. So
you know, Cooks, as Dwaynehad a recent article on kind of age
close, it's not that we justneed to automatically fade anyone that's you know,
all of a sudden god in agestarting with the number three. But

(01:58:28):
when you do start seeing the declinein efficiency, then it starts to become
a red flag and a reason toget out sooner rather than later. So
for Cooks, you know, I'mfine, Mexico man, you want to
draft them as your wide receiver sixor seven, just as again ancillary part
of what should still be a goodpassing game. I'm fine with that.
But honestly, you might be thenumber three in Dallas, you know,
behind CD and maybe even Jacob Fergusonwhen everything is all said and done.

(01:58:53):
What Chakobe Myers, I will saya lot of his you know production last
year was being helped I think byJimmy g being under center early and he
was really, you know, almosthilariously distributing it pretty evenly between Jacobe and
DeVante Adams. But Aidan O'Connell tookover, you know, from week nine
on last season, and from thatpoint Adams had ninety four targets, Meyers
had forty nine. So that wasbefore they used the first round pick on

(01:59:15):
you know, what is widely believedto be one of the better you know,
receiving tight ends to come out ofthe draft in recent memory, obviously
talking about brock Bauers and Man,I just I have a hard time getting,
you know, overly excited about anyonein this Raiders organization. They were
a bottom ten scoring offense last year. I don't know why we think Gardner
Minshew coming in is automatically gonna youknow, improve that metric. I mean

(01:59:39):
completion percentage over expected, which formy money's worth, is probably the second
best you know quarterbacks that other thanthe EPA per dropback. I mean literally,
among thirty two quarterbacks last year,Minshew was thirty first and Aidan O'Connell
was thirty second. So yeah,I'm sure you know, would you take
the Raiders over the Giants? Iguess over the Panthers maybe, you know
in terms of quarterbacks. But again, if we had to sit down and

(02:00:00):
rank these quarterback rooms across the league, I'd be shocked if we need more
than one hand to count the numberof rooms that are actually worse than what
the Raiders are gonna be working with. So I think Jacoby's good, but
he's in a crowded offense. Ihave zero faith in this quarterback room.
And honestly, similar to Brandon Cookslike he really did get by more so
on touchdowns last season than anything else. So, you know, another guy

(02:00:24):
being exactly priced up. But ifwe had to kind of look at wide
receivers in that range, who couldyou know, exceed the expectations. I
think Curtis Samuel. I think rashould Shaheed have you know, more clear
pass to being a more definitive kindof number two in their offense. And
honestly, even the Green Bay guysare at least playing with a quarterback relative
to Jacoby, that's gonna give thema much better chance. So Jerry Judy

(02:00:45):
over both. Man, I knowit's gross, but hey, now that
he's going this cheap Deshaun Watson,I do think it's gonna be chucking that
ball around a bit. Got paid. Yeah, I just think there's a
lot better options than an aging BrandonCooks and Jacoby, who sadly is stuck
in one of the least fantasy friendlypassing environments in the NFL. Hey,
all I heard was that the situationis better because we went from thirty second

(02:01:08):
ranked Adan O'Connell the thirty first rankGardner Minshew, Come on, man,
but you know there's a disconnect therein the fantasy community because they still want
to draft Adams as number nine whenthe you know, he struggled with that
quarterback play, and yet they're leavingMyers down there at wide receiver fifty two
one or the other. I think, really we needed to be pushing Adams

(02:01:29):
down the board a little bit.But that's a different discussion. Now.
I'm with you. I have notbeen going on my way to draft Adams.
It's tough to move him down toofar because you start projecting targets and
you're like, all right, wellhim and he still had freaking one hundred
and seventy five targets last season.It was just you know, sixty seven
receiving yards per game. Man,that was the first time he was below
eighty since twenty seventeen. So justa bit of a red flag. And

(02:01:51):
you know when I just have sucha hard time getting past the quarterback room,
man, and Minshew's a lot offun, you know, yeah,
quirky Uncle Rico and all that stuff. But you know, the dudes on
what third fourth team and the sameamost seasons, you know that's happened for
a reason. That is happening fora reason. Absolutely, Well, let
me leave everyone with a little bitof your personal opinion because we've hit some

(02:02:14):
situations here and got some good insightfrom you. But I know you're a
big best ball guy. You cangive me best ball or you can give
me redraft whatever you want. Doyou have a guy or two that you
are fading consistently? That person popsup at the top of your your ADP
and you're like, I should probablytake this guy, and you just can't
click the button. And then onthe other side, who are guys that

(02:02:36):
maybe you're reaching for a little bitthat have you found to be really in
on that end up on a lotof your teams. Let's just keep pissing
off any Raiders fans that are happeningto be listening to us. I've just
not been drafting Zamir White hardly atall. Man. Yeah, he was
good down the stretch. He wasn'tgreat though. Man. Yeah he was
a pepr RB twelve, seventeen,sixteen, and twenty one during those final

(02:02:59):
four games. I do not seehim having many goal line opportunities. Maybe
he is the lead goal line back. I think he's better now Alexander Madison.
But again, expecting this to bea bad offense. Amyra Abdullah was
continuing to work as the lead passdown back during that stretch. We don't
have much belief that Zeus is goingto be getting that, and yeah,
guys, he's jacked. Okay,but if we learned nothing from the Mike
Davis AJ Dillon offseason pictures, Ireally thought Drew that it was more of

(02:03:23):
a joke that we were passing alongthis a mere white picture. But the
more that I continue to see it, I'm not so sure. So hell,
I mean, maybe even Dylan Labafrom New Hampshire actually ends up making
a bit more sense here. SoI'm not denying that he's gonna have some
volume and be the lead back withthe Raiders. But man, when we
can't pair the volume with actual fantasyfriendly receiving opportunities or goal line opportunities,

(02:03:47):
and we're just looking at a guywho again does never have the draft capital.
If the Raiders loves the mere Whiteso much, man, why do
he have literally like twenty career touchesbefore the last four weeks of last year
when Josh Jacobs literally just was tooinjured to go out there in play.
So you know, even if I'mhating on you know, a round eight,
round nine running back. Maybe incertain leagues he falls a bit.

(02:04:08):
I mean guys like Rimandre Stevenson,Jayleen Moore, and DeAndre Swift Zach Moss.
For me, they either have abetter chance of having a true three
down role or you know, inZach Moss's case, or at least in
an offense I don't expect to completelysuck, so I would say Zamir also,
Kouka, Nakua, man someone I'mnot making a habit of drafting overly
early. I mean, just wetalked about it with aj Brown, DeVonta

(02:04:31):
Smith, Tyreek killing Jaylen Waddell.We have two seasons of evidence that say
that Tyreek and AJB are being prioritized. They are the number one receivers the
Honestly, it's even more skewed towardsPooka in this offense over Cooper Cupp than
those two offenses are. Yet wesaw twelve full games of them together last
year. Pooka had one hundred targetsand Cooper Cupp had ninety nine. So

(02:04:53):
Yeskuoka did make more out of it. But man, I just really struggled
to completely count out the guy thatwas the wide receiver one back to back
seasons on a per game basis,at least because he was literally injured the
entirety of last year and now seeminglyhe is gonna be back to full health.
So you know, it's not likeI have Puka again ranked horrendously but

(02:05:14):
he's the wide receiver seven right now. Man. You know, I just
guys like AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Junior, even Drake London.
I will be, you know,pulling the trigger on those guys a
bit more so. One of thosethings where, you know, because I
have Puka ranked as the wide receiverten, not the wide receiver seven,
that means I just hate him asa person, his entire family and all
that. But dude, just it'sa lot for a guy who just broke

(02:05:35):
the rookie receiving record. I getit, But you know, do we
actually think that Puka is a topten wide receiver in the NFL? Or
do he get a ton of helpfrom Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford inside of
an offense that had zero other placesto go with the ball for large portions
of last season. I tend thelean towards the ladder a little bit.
Well, as much as it breaksmy heart, I feel the same way

(02:05:58):
about Puka. What I've had theopportunity to take him when I'm quote supposed
to, I haven't done it.And I will say I went out and
bought a Pooka jersey because he wonme two titles last year. And yeah,
and I just said, hey,I love this guy. He was
part of one of my favorite days. I've said this before on the show
Favorite Days of My Life. Iwas at Disney World with my family and

(02:06:21):
I'm watching on my phone. I'mwatching I think it was Brown's rams that
he ripped off a seventy yard touchdownas I'm as I'm riding rides in Disney
World, Like, I don't thinkyou can combine two better things. But
it hurts me to say that.I just I'm I've not been on Pooka
either, And so you know that'ssome confirmation biased there. What about some

(02:06:44):
guys that you're in on right now? Yeah, I cost and I just
had an article I'll go up onfanslap dot com if you guys want to
check out more. Just because again, I just went through all thirty two
teams. You know, Team previewsobviously had a lot of rankings adjustments along
the way, so definitely, youknow, I wanted to highlight some of
those. One So, Kyler Murrayis someone where I'm very confused why he's
going behind guys like CJ. Stroudand Joe Burrow when throughout his entire career,

(02:07:08):
man, he has been the epitomeof a fantasy cheek code, consistently
ripping off QB one performances. Nowfully healthy, we saw him come back
last year and still be a fantasyQB one and oh yeah, you add
Marvin Freakin Harrison Junior to the group. I certainly think Kyler Murray is going
to smash his current ADP. EzekielElliott is someone that, yes, is

(02:07:28):
gross, but guys, he's beengross for years and he can't be the
only running back that we hold inefficiency against. We've seen this with Joe
Mixon. There's another guy that I'mnot afraid to you know, draft that
cost. But like we look atsome of these players, Ezekiel Elliott had
as good, if not better,advanced rushing metrics as Saquon Barkley and Josh
Jacobs last year that happened. Zkafaster ball carrier speed than Tony Pollard,

(02:07:53):
Josh Jacobs and Austin Ecklert. Lastseason that happened, and Dallas, guess
what, guys, two years agohe was really bad. He have his
three point eight yards for carry andhe's still finished as a top twenty four
running back because he was the goalline back and he scored twelve freaking touchdowns.
So that's kind of my expectation again, man, And that was with
Tony Pollard taking away again a tonof work. So don't hate the player,

(02:08:15):
hite the ADP and to see thirtysix plus running backs go ahead to
zeke him and Gus Ewarts. Ithink stand out in that range as guys
that no aren't the sexiest to draft, but especially you know in standard or
half PPR leagues, man, Ithink they make a lot of sense to
see anyone else. Oh yeah,let's get really gross here. Late two
late round guys I do really like. And again it is because they're late

(02:08:37):
and you know, past one hundredand fifty picks. But Antonio Gibson now
with the Patriots, got three years, eleven million dollars, not workhorse money.
It's gonna be Rimandre Stevenson out theRB one there. But in terms
of pure handcuffs man, Gibson doeshave two seasons over a thousand total yards,
double digit touchdowns to his name,and we know that he is the
sort of theoretical three down back twohundred and twenty pounds you can actually run

(02:09:01):
between the tackles and catch the football. God forbid something happens to Remandre.
I think we could legit be firingup Gibson as a top fifteen RB as
early as in next week. Andthen you know, if I'm a little
bit down on Puka, should probablybe up on someone else on the Rams.
Don't hate Cooper Cup at cost,but guys, DeMarcus Robinson going wide
receiver eighty, my boy John Diago, I believe is with me where like

(02:09:24):
we both have drafted him more thanjust about anyone. But you look at
it down the stretch man final fivefull games of last regular season, d
rob finished as the wide receiver twentytwenty three, twenty five, fifteen,
and then twenty five again. SoI get it. You know he is
going to be thirty here and hedoesn't have a five hundred yard season to
his name, But we're talking abouta guy being priced is like the wide
receiver eighty huge contingency value if anythinghappens to Puka and Cooper Cup and I

(02:09:48):
think we can get a boom erbust wide receiver four type of season out
of him because the Rams have beenthe number one offense in the league and
eleven personnel three years running. Sohey, if we even want to go
further with that man. Once hegot introduced into the starting lineup in Week
thirteen, that final stretch, itwas Pooka and Cooper Cup I believe with
exactly fifty targets each. Robinson wasn'tthat far behind at forty, so they

(02:10:11):
didn't add any you know, meaningfulcompetition at wide receiver and free agency or
the draft certainly looks like co havethat you know, heavy role again.
So final point, Noah fense.We still believe Kolbe Parkinson, Will Disley
out of town, new offensive coordinator, former first round pick. I had
w a tight end freaking fourth inyours for target obs last two years.

(02:10:33):
I'ven't heard before, Drew. I'mready to be hurt again. I just
took in the Scott Fish Bowl becausethere you go, it's tight end heavy,
and he was my number three.I figured why not. But yeah,
I was actually just looking up DeMarcusRobinson when you said what he got
on the field after week thirteen,and his route participation just blew up and

(02:10:54):
he was out on the field forpretty much every passing play then over the
next four weeks. And McVeigh loveshis three wide receiver sets. I don't
understand why McVeigh wide receiver three isgoing that far down. But I've also
drafted quite a bit of DeMarcus Robinsonmyself. I'm also ready to be hurt.
But hey, look we are pushingan hour now, We've used up

(02:11:16):
enough of your time. I wantto thank you so much for being here.
Tell everybody where they can find yourwork and where they can find you
on socials. Fun time as always, bro. Looking forward to seeing you
here in real life a couple timesover next month. But yeah, check
me out Fancylife dot com. Wehave, you know, plenty of good
content. Fancy Life Show is ournew name for just you know, your
good old regular podcast. Going tostart calling you five times a week here

(02:11:39):
soon, so I'm sure I willbe reaching out to Drewid hopefully once again
get an auction themed episode going on. So I'm not in any I know,
uh, Drew, I had achance to, uh you reached out
to me last year. I oneof the auction leagues and we weren't able
to make it work. But anymoreyou got potentially. Man, holler at
your boy, because I'm not inone right now. Ever since I got
my King's class spot yanked at anew company. So really, is you

(02:12:03):
know, one of the more funI think draft day experiences out there,
So a lot of fun. Yeah, Fantasy Life at I Heeart. It's
on Twitter, you know, wholenine yards there. Yeah, Well,
I'm going to hit you up forthe auction brief listener league. Great,
he talked a little bit about that, and I think I'm gonna have some
spots and I always try to getsomebody from the industry in there with me,
So I think you're the perfect candidate. Right, Let's do it,

(02:12:24):
all right, all right, Well, I'm sure everybody listening we'll be excited
about that. Okay, Well,once again, Ian Herd, it's there
from Fantasy Life. Go check outhis work. Support him for supporting the
show. He's been on the shownow two summers in a row and always
brings the heat. You can tellhe is deep into those team projections.
Because, folks, lazy guy overhere. Now I shouldn't say lazy.

(02:12:46):
I was working my butt off lastnight, went about three thirty in the
morning, forgot to give Ian ashow sheet. He did this show off
the cuff, Folks. I don'tthink it gets any better than that.
So thanks again to Ian Herd.It's from a man Barry's fantasy life.
Appreciate you being here, and that'lldo it for another discussion. Swick grew

(02:13:11):
all right, great job, Ian. You know Ian's turned into one of
my favorite people in the industry.I think I say that just about every
week. But you know I havepeople on my show that I like,
and Ian's one of my favorite people. He's turned into a good friend.
He lives in Columbus, not thatfar away from me. It's been over
to play some poker, see himquite a bit, cross paths with him

(02:13:31):
quite a bit, just because welive in Ohio. And like I said,
he's turned into a friend. Ithink you can tell from our conversation
how smart the guy is about fantasyfootball, and I hope that you learned
a lot from today's episode, notonly talking to Ian, but talking about
the human psychology of an auction draftroom. It's been one heck of an
episode, but I'm not going todelay things any further because we got to

(02:13:54):
get you out of here. Thishas been a long one, but it's
been a fun one. So it'sepisode six of season four. We're halfway
through. Next week we have MattHarmon from Yahoo and Reception Perception. You're
not going to want to miss MattHarmon talking about the receiver situations that you

(02:14:15):
want to know about for your fantasydrafts. Matt is also a really smart
guy that's going to make you betterat fantasy football. Let's get you out
of here. Don't forget FJA Fantasydraft boards. Use my promo code Auction
one zero or Auction Brief one zerofor the best fantasy draft boards in the
business. Don't forget my Patreon networkthe Fantasy Football Lawyer. We're doing stuff
over there all the time to makeyou better at auctions and make you a

(02:14:37):
better informed fantasy drafter. I amstarting my analyst series over there. I've
already got Dave Richard from CBS linedup, and many other folks that are
going to talk to you about auctionsand about how to win your fantasy football
leagues, auction or not. We'redoing a ton of good stuff over there.
Thank you so much for listening tome talking about the human psychology of
auctions. It is an untapped reserveof a positive ev that you just gotta

(02:15:01):
have and you just got to startusing. And again, thank you to
Ian Hard. It's from Matthew Berry'sFantasy Life. Fantastic chat with him as
well. It's been a really funepisode. I can't wait for another one
next week where we're gonna dive intothe preparation of auction drafts and how we
get ourselves ready to go into aroom and crush it. We're getting you

(02:15:22):
ready to crush your drafts coming upin August. But it's still July and
we've got a lot of time totalk about these things and these concepts.
They're gonna make you better and theyare gonna make you win some championships.
I cannot wait to keep going.Thank you so much for joining me.
It's been another fun episode of theAuction Brief. I am your fantasy football
lawyer. Drew Davenport, The Auctionbrief is adjourned, and I am out.

(02:15:46):
The auction Brief is adjourn that'll doit for this week's episode. See
you next time on the Auction Brief.

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