Guest Mike Wright of the Fantasy Footballers; Plus Auction Bidding Strategies

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Auction Brief.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
There's a joy in this game, sir.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Not taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the
law and life.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
These saw yours take. It depends on how much you want.
And now you're legal analyst and auction draft expert here
to help you dominate your fantasy drafts.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
Your host, Drew Davenport.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
There are full hearts.

Speaker 4 (00:33):
Go play some football.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Hey, everybody, welcome into the Auction Brief. As the lady said,
I am your host, Drew Davenport. You're fantasy football lawyer,
and thank you so much for joining me in episode
nine of season four. As I talk to you today,
it is August first, Oh my lord, we are in August,
and there's going to be real football on the TV

(00:59):
any minute now, well if it hasn't already, I don't
know when you're listening to this, but there's going to
be real football on because it's Hall of Fame game time,
and that means we are getting ever closer to our
fantasy drafts. That is a wild thought to me, but
I think we've accomplished a lot on the show this summer.
I'm stoked about where we are, and I feel great

(01:20):
about the plan for the rest of the year. And
we have an amazing guest today, one of the bigger
guests we've ever had on the show. That would be
mister Mike Wright from the Fantasy Footballers. I know a
lot of you are fans out there of those three
guys over there and that company in general. I'm pumped
about that. I've never actually met Mike, so I'm going

(01:41):
to get to do that and enjoy a conversation with him.
So I think you're going to really love that. And
you know, we have a couple more great guests coming
up in the next few weeks, and then we still
have the auction Manifesto near the end of August to
prepare you for your drafts. But there's a lot of
little housekeeping to get together, so let me get to

(02:01):
some of that real quickly. Again, no details on the
Listener League yet. I'm putting together. You know, I can
pick some people for the Listener League. Y'all know that
I'm still gonna have plenty of spots up for grabs.
I'm trying to have maybe six seven spots at least.
They're gonna be up for grabs in a contest coming up.
But I haven't finalized the rest of the league yet,
so just hang tight, Hang tight. We've got plenty of time.

(02:24):
We got like three weeks before we're gonna draft. There's
plenty of time to get your name in. Do not worry,
the listener. League details are coming. No FF legal update
this week because there really isn't a lot of movement
on either the Rashly Rice case or the Jordan Addison case. Addison,
Nothing's happened at all. Rice. We haven't heard a peep

(02:44):
in a while. Go to my Twitter account Drew Davenport FF.
Check out my latest thread that I dropped this week. Really,
what it amounts to is you want to be operating
on a sliding scale here, and as the summer goes on,
the further it goes, the greater the chances are that
Rice is the entire twenty twenty four season. And that's
something that not a lot of people out there are

(03:06):
talking about.

Speaker 4 (03:07):
Dial that in.

Speaker 2 (03:08):
I'm not saying that's definitely gonna happen, folks, That's not
what I'm saying. But I am saying there is a
decent chance now, and it grows every day because we
haven't heard anything, and I'm not sure why that is.
But I speculate about that on my Twitter account, about
the fact that maybe there's a deal in the works
or maybe the deal making hit a snag. Either way,

(03:29):
it's quite possible that criminal case gets pushed out past
the twenty twenty four season. So go check that out.
But hey, the best way to be up on this
kind of stuff is my Patreon. I gave this to
my subscribers about a month ago. It's just four bucks
a month, and I'm putting out all kinds of content,
not just legal stuff, all kinds of content out there.

(03:50):
And like I said, just four bucks a month. That's
the Fantasy Football Lawyer Patreon network. And also, don't forget
that we have a fun little deal with FJF Fantasy Sports,
the best draft boards in the business. Get ten percent
off your order with my code Auction one zero or
Auction Brief one zero. So what are we doing today? Today?

(04:11):
We are going to talk about bidding strategies for the
first time all season. When I'm looking into what I'm
going to do this week and how I'm going to
present this, I felt like I could get through it
all in one nice little thirty to forty five minute segment,
and I don't always feel that way about the topics
because some of them are so monstrously large. I could

(04:33):
probably do a week on nomination stuff. I could probably
do a week on inflection points, which we're going to
hit here in a couple weeks. But with bidding, I
think it's just a little bit simpler. It's a less
nuanced part of auction drafting. And I think I can
walk you through that today, sort of step by step,
and I think you're just gonna get done and be like,
all right, Hey, I'm good. I can do bidding stuff.

(04:53):
There's just very little nuance to it. The few nuanced
things that I believe are in there, I'm going to
talk to you about those. So we'll talk about all
that stuff today with bidding strategies. Don't forget to stick
around for discussions with Drew and Mike Wright from the
Fantasy Footballers. Let's get to it, folks, Let's do some
auction talk.

Speaker 3 (05:12):
Auction talk.

Speaker 2 (05:15):
So, yeah, I did want to start out today's episode
with a long poker story or anything like that, because
we're getting into crunch time and I feel the pressure.
I feel the pressure and the urgency from people's dms
and their messages. People want to get things done, they
want answers. Now I understand that it is getting to
crunch time. I have one of the most important drafts,
if not the most important draft of my entire draft season,

(05:38):
coming up here in about ten days. So I'm feeling
that pressure myself. So I'm not going to do a
long poker story or any intro introduction like that. No
philosophy quote, nothing like that.

Speaker 4 (05:47):
Today.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
We're going to do it right now. We're going to
get into bidding strategies because I think that I can
hit this whole thing, and I'm excited about this neat
little package I've got here for you on what you
should be thinking about with your bidding. So I've divided
it up. You know me, I can't do this without
some sort of organization. It's been beaten to me. I
can't help it. I went through the US public education system.

(06:11):
This is what they do to me. So I've got
three little sections today. The first one is just some
overall thoughts I have about bidding strategies, because there's three
things that I think of over and over as being
sort of just overarching themes. So the first part is
just three overall ideas, quick easy stuff that you have

(06:33):
to just think about all the time when you're thinking
about bidding. The second part is going to be really
the mediast part of the topic today, and that's two
huge areas that really I call them basically engines that
drive the whole bidding process, the central ideas that are
pushing you where you should go and telling you what
to think. That is the push and pull of price

(06:58):
versus need. And then the other one one is what
do we do with price enforcing as far as market
price enforcing or bidding people up that we know we
can bid them up, what's the difference there and what
we should be thinking about. Those are the two main
engines of you know that drive you're bidding. But then
I want to end with five sort of quick hitters,
and I just call them dues and don'ts, some things

(07:19):
that I just see all the time, and I hesitate
to just try to shove these into one of the
different categories today because I just think they're things I
see all the time and they're kind of miscellaneous, but
they're super important because they're things I see a lot
of the dues and don'ts. At the end, are going
to be fun. I've just got five of them, and
those are pretty quick. A couple examples. I think you're
going to enjoy that. So let's get into it here

(07:41):
with some overarching ideas that you have to think about
all the time when you're bidding. The first one I
want you to always be thinking about is don't try
to be too fancy. I've said this on the show before.
I'm not sure we talked about it in twenty twenty three,

(08:03):
but I definitely did in twenty two. Don't get fancy. Okay,
what do I mean by getting fancy? Well, generally you
just want to put one dollar above what the previous
person bid if you're bidding on a player the end.
I can move on to the next topic now, but seriously,
it's that simple, one dollar ahead of the previous bid,
and that's really all you want to do when you're

(08:24):
starting out, And I think that's just a general rule
of thumb for most people at most times. There are occasions,
which we are going to talk about on the show today.
You want to use different bid amounts. You want to
bid a little bit more, you want to maybe blow
people away with something you want to not give them
time to think about their bids. There are situations when

(08:46):
you can change things up a little bit, but in general,
just don't get fancy. All right, Oh but I like fancy.
What do you mean by I love fancy?

Speaker 4 (08:56):
Getting there and make me some liver and onions.

Speaker 2 (08:59):
That's what today is. Today is liver and onions. I've
been told on the Patreon by I think it was Hollis.
Shout out to Hollis for listening to the show. He
is correct. We have not talked about the planes settlers
this year. I'm not sure that's a bad thing. I
don't think the planes settlers are that important here. But hey,

(09:20):
this is your liver and onions today. This is really
good stuff, a lot of protein and vitamins that are
gonna make your auction game better. Don't get fancy. That's
number one. Number two is something that I know you
are sick of me saying, but I'm gonna say it again.
Have a reason, folks. If there's nothing else you learn

(09:41):
from the entire summer, just walk in the draft and say,
have a reason for everything you do, nominations, bids, everything.
So I have to say it again, have a reason.
And that reason is not I like this guy. This
guy makes me happy. Okay, that's not a reason. Reason
is one of the things that we've talked about this summer.

(10:02):
That is the factors. It drives your par sheet, it
bids up another player, it targets another player. Whatever you're
doing has to have a reason. Okay, that's number two.
Don't get fancy, have a reason. And the third one
is one that I think is going to surprise you
a little bit. Sometimes you just need to shut up.

(10:23):
Sometimes you need to stop clicking the mouse and quiet
your mind.

Speaker 4 (10:28):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (10:29):
I have told you over and over and over that
I want you to be pressuring people, and that is important.
I want you to be active. That is a hallmark
of this show. You can't be a good auction drafter
if you're not active, both because it lets your mind
rest and then you drift off and you're not sharp,
but also because you're always involved and you're never thinking
about the things you need to be thinking about. So

(10:51):
sometimes just stop shut up, stop clicking the mouse, stop
chatting in the draft chat. You don't owe it the
league to be the sheriff one percent of the time.
Scott Pianowski and I talked about this a couple of
weeks ago. Go listen to our auction conversation. I thought
that was a fun one. He made a great point.

(11:11):
Don't always be the sheriff, because then the league expects
you to do it, and then that's your role for
the whole draft. Sometimes shut your mouth. Okay, I think
that one's pretty clear. All right, So that's that's fairly
quick stuff. But I want you to think about it.
Apply it like you're putting it over the top of everything,

(11:32):
like it's a lens through which you cannot see all
this other stuff unless you remember those three things. Don't
get fancy, have a reason, and sometimes just stop, quiet
your mind and figure out where you're supposed to be
in the draft. All right, Those are the overarching themes.
Let's talk about the main engines that drive this entire

(11:52):
bidding process. The two big concepts that I think you
absolutely have to master in order for you to really
understand bidding and the bidding thought process that you should
be going through while you're in the moment deciding whether
or not to put in another bid. The first one

(12:17):
that I always talk about is sort of a variation
on the nomination one from last week, where I said Okay,
think about your roster, their roster, your cap, their cap,
total cap, total players, total, scarcity, scarcity in tears. You
go through all that stuff too, but it breaks down
to an even more simple process. There is a push

(12:38):
and pull that goes on between two different factors in
the draft, one being what is the price of the
player that is up forbid? And number two, what is
your need or want for that particular situation. Those two

(13:00):
up against each other and they act like a rope
and a tug of war that goes back and forth.
And the reason I say that rope is because one
can't move without the other moving. It necessarily matters to
the other one if the one moves. So let's talk
about what that means, the push and pull of price
versus need or want. Here's an example that I always

(13:21):
like to give. Let's imagine that you're in a draft
and you have your top three wide receivers already, You've
already locked them down. It's getting later in the draft,
so player prices are dropping a little bit and you're
going to have to make some decisions about whether or
not you're going to take some of these deals that
come up. We're going to talk about this in just
a minute under price enforcing. But sometimes you just have

(13:43):
to pass up deals again, refer you back to Scott
Pianowski and I talking about that stuff. You can't always
take every good deal that comes up. That just isn't possible,
and it locks you in far too early. When you
start taking too many deals, it takes away the biggest
capital you have near the end of the draft, which
is your roster spots and your ability to move around

(14:03):
your construction as you see fit. In this example, you've
already got your three wide receivers, and so you're at
that point where you realize that there are going to
be some players that come up that are deals that
you're going to have to decide how good of a
deal is it for me to bid when I don't
technically need that player. So if you have your top

(14:25):
three wide receivers, then DK Metcalf comes up. Let's say
that you've got fifty two dollars left. Okay, but you
still have to fill quite a few spots on your team,
including a couple of starters and then your whole bench,
and you've only got fifty two bucks. Now that's okay,
I'm not saying you're out of it, but you really
can't afford DK metcalf right, now, can you. I mean,
the guy's not going to really go for less than

(14:46):
eighteen bucks, probably, and more than likely he's going to
go in the mid twenties, sometimes upper twenties. Depends on
the room, depends on what people are doing, and when
he comes up. Obviously all that stuff. But for the
most part, when you have your top three wide receivers
and you've got fifty d two bucks and you need
to fill a bunch of spots, you can't bid on
DK metcalf right, But sometimes sometimes you can. And that's

(15:10):
what I want to talk about with the push and
pull of price versus need, Because do you need DK
metcalf No? Do you want him?

Speaker 4 (15:19):
Well?

Speaker 2 (15:19):
Sure, if I could get him cheap enough, yeah, I'd
want him. What would it take for you to need
to open your mouth there and go against the previous
comment I made about just shutting your mouth when DK
metcalf comes up. This is one of those moments when
you need to shut your mouth because you really can't
afford him. What are you doing if you're just bidding
and then you get stuck, So you really have to

(15:41):
be careful here. But what happens if it slows down.

Speaker 4 (15:44):
At fourteen dollars?

Speaker 2 (15:46):
All right, I'm picking that number purposely because that's a
really good price for DK Metcalf. It slows down at
thirteen bucks and you can say fourteen to get DK Metcalf.
Do you have to say it? I would argue that
you do. You don't need him, but that locks up
another difference maker on your squad for a ridiculously low price.

(16:08):
The thing is as the price drops, and this is
where the rope analogy comes into play, the tug of war.
As the price drops, it becomes easier and easier for
you to say I want this guy and I can
do it, or hey, I need this guy. It's depth
or it's a flex or whatever. But as the price drops,
it becomes easier and easier to say yes, and as

(16:29):
the price goes up, it becomes harder and harder to
say yes. We're not here to talk about the easier
the hard ones. We're here to talk about the middle right,
because that price, that push and pull versus need or
want is something that you have to be brutally honest
with yourself about. Do I need this player or do
I really just want this player, and that all comes
in to have a reason. What is the reason I'm

(16:50):
bidding on this player? Well, for DK metcalf, what would
your reason there be? Your reason would be that price
is too good and he is a difference maker. And
at that point, there can't be a lot of difference
makers left based on what I've already described that I
don't have a lot of money left, that I've already
got three wide receivers. So we're pretty deep into this draft, right,
there's probably not a lot of DK metcalfs left. Right,

(17:13):
So that also gives you a different perspective that's less
want and that's more needs, as in, I'm going to
accumulate more top level talent, and especially for this price,
this is an easy conversation. If he's eight bucks, right,
you have to bid, that's absolutely one hundred percent.

Speaker 4 (17:29):
You have to.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
If he's thirty two, you can't zero, you can't. You
have fifty two bucks left, you can't bid thirty two.
That's but that's not what we're doing here. What happens
if it's twelve fourteen, sixteen, You tend to get caught
up in that kind of thing and you say oh
my gosh, it's slowing down at thirteen, and you bid fourteen,
and then somebody says fifteen, and you go, oh, well,

(17:51):
you know, sixteen, that's not bad. And they say seventeen.
You say, oh, well, eighteen still in the low end
of what I've seen him go for. I'm going to
bid eighteen. Then all of a sudden you're pushing twenty
bucks and you only got fifty two bucks left. Again,
have these conversations in your head. At what point does
it pass that critical point where I can't bid anymore?
Where the price is too high and the price overshadows

(18:11):
the need or the want. And be brutal with yourself
about whether it is a need or a want. That's
really important. A lot of times one is disguised as
the other, and you know which one it is. Want
is disguised as need. Oh I really you don't want
to bid sixteen on Josh Allen. Okay, yeah, that's a
good price. You want to bid sixteen, But what if

(18:31):
it's going to ruin your draft? What if you have
four dollars down as your QB one? Again, at what
point does the one outweigh the other? And be honest
with yourself about what your roster needs and whether you
need that player or whether you want them all right,
So that's the one thing think about, that push and pull.
I like that first of all, because it's really the

(18:51):
main thing when you're thinking about whether or not to bid.
That's the first spot your brain should go to. This
right here is where you should start the thought process
in the moment in a draft. Where is the push
and pull? Here, where's the price point? Where's my need?
And that's how you springboard into number two here. Number
two is one of the more nuanced things we're going

(19:13):
to talk about today, and that's when you should be
price enforcing or bidding people up. Because one of the
most critical concepts that people sort of gloss over when
they talk about auction drafting is that this is still
a game. Okay, we are trying to compile the best
fantasy football roster. But it wouldn't matter if you're sitting

(19:33):
around with your buddies on a Friday night and you're saying, Okay,
we're going to draft fast food restaurants. You're still playing
a game to attempt to compile the best fast food restaurants. Okay, Well,
the game is you're trying to draft the best fast
food restaurants based on how much money they make every year. Okay,
so you're going to try to get McDonald's, that's a

(19:53):
number one pick. You're going to try to get Wendy's.
You know, you're going to try to get Taco Bell.
It doesn't matter matter what it is. It's a game.
Don't forget that. It's a game. And this game is
based on market analysis, and that market analysis says, do
I know this room? Do I know this situation better

(20:14):
or worse than you? And that's where price enforcing and
bidding people up comes in, because I don't believe that
you can be an elite auction drafter unless you master
these two things, and unless you put these two things
into play during every auction you do. That's price enforcing
or bidding people up if you have tells on them.

(20:35):
But I want to caution you to say this is
also where you can make the most mistakes. But go
back to the very beginning of the summer when I said,
when you're trying to have a perfect auction, you're supposed
to be on the knife edge. You're supposed to be
close to making a big mistake. And that's okay, because
that's how we learn as we make those mistakes. And

(20:55):
every once in a while you're going to make one
of those big ones. You're going to get hot under
the collar and you're on the knife edge when you're
bidding people up, when you're market price enforcing, you have
to be very careful and pressure is important here, but
precision is the name of the game in price enforcing
and bidding people up. It is by far one of
the best things that you can do to affect the

(21:16):
overall available cap dollars in the room on a consistent basis.
But again, don't forget. Don't mess with this stuff if
you don't know what you're doing. All right, refer back
to the intro, which is don't get fancy, And I'd
say this is as close as we're going to get
to be in fancy. Oh no, I was really hoping
we get all dressed up, go out to dinner and

(21:40):
be all fancy tonight, have a bathtub Gin and Tonic Paula.
Be real for a second. Okay, we're trying to win
fantasy drafts. We're trying to win titles. We don't care
about getting fancy and going into Town. All right, Paula.
So what is the difference between price enforcing and bidding

(22:01):
people up? Because a lot of times people have the
tendency to conflate these two to say these two are
the same thing, but they are definitely not the same thing.
Price enforcing is the act of bidding on a player
who is too low in price simply to get their
price to a better level where you can then let

(22:22):
them go. And what is a better level. It's a
level at which your league mates aren't profiting to greatly
from a price they're paying. I want to harken back
to something the great David Dodds said in the first
summer of My show. He said, I'm going to bid
sometimes because there simply is no way another player in
that draft is going to profit that greatly from a

(22:45):
price being too low. And I love the way you
put it. He said, There's just no way I'm going
to let certain things happen. You know, Patrick Mahomes is
at twelve dollars, You're saying, thirteen, okay, you cannot let
I don't care if you already have Jalen Hurts for
two six dollars. You cannot let Patrick Mahomes go to
somebody for twelve bucks, you just can't, and you're not

(23:07):
going to get them for thirteen. And if you say thirteen,
you're not going to get him. Point being, there are
just profit margins that are too high that you can't
let them happen when they're about to happen, all right,
So that's really important to remember. Price enforcing is all
about and getting their market price up to a palatable
level where you can back off then and the risk

(23:29):
is gone from bidding too high. You just get him
into that range where you feel comfortable that they should
be there, and then you back off and you're done.
But it's really important stuff because sometimes people aren't paying attention,
and if you're the one paying attention, you have to
be the one to step in and do it. And
more often than not, I am going to be that

(23:50):
person if the price is just too low. And this
is a market based thing, it isn't the same in
every room, so I can't tell you, oh, if this
player is this price, you have to bid. But I
tried to give you some guidelines. My rankings dropped on
the Patreon and I put a column on there that
says market price and what I really am saying is

(24:12):
don't let these players go for less than this money.
Get them to this dollar amount, and then you can
kind of shrug and say, oh, well, the person's still
getting a deal, but I got them up there enough,
so a twenty two dollars player. Don't let this player
go for less than twelve bucks, okay. And what's really
the main difference between these two is that when you're
market price enforcing, you don't really mind if you get

(24:34):
that player because they're so cheap. Go back to the
first point here, which is the price versus need or want.
They're so cheap that if you land them, you're okay
with it. And again this is subject to the main
caveat here, which is you have to pass on some
deals at some point. But for the most part, price
enforcing market price enforcing simply means that you're probably gonna

(24:56):
be okay for the eighty five percent of the time
you're gonna be okay landing that player at that price
that you're bidding on because the price is simply too low.
Otherwise you wouldn't need to market price inforce, right, that's
by definition, that's just a definitional thing here. You wouldn't
need to enforce it if the price wasn't super low.
So when somebody calls out T. Higgins, you're not that

(25:19):
excited about him. But the bidding starts to slow down
at eight bucks, and you think, Okay, I got to
get in here and I got to get this thing going.
So you say nine and somebody says ten, you say eleven.
Now you know quickly that you're fine with eleven for
Higgins because you're prepared and you're ready to go. They
may not be, but it's flustering them a little bit,
and they're thinking, oh, he really wants him. Oh yeah,

(25:40):
it's T. Higgins, let's go. And then you've kind of
given the bidding a little injection, a little shot in
the arm to get it moving. And after you say eleven,
if nobody says it anything else, so what, Okay, maybe
you didn't plan on having T. Higgins, maybe you don't
really like it, but eleven bucks, yeah great, I mean
not even say like okay, twelve, thirteen bucks like that
is almost like a noe at that point. But you're

(26:01):
starting to get into that range where you're crossing over
the threshold of do I want to keep bidding the
point being, this is something that I think you're going
to recognize fairly easily in the draft room. But you
have to be paying attention. And I know that sounds simple,
but it's not really, because your attention can wane and
you can come back and see, oh, hey, I want

(26:22):
to get a drink because I didn't care about this player,
and you come back and see they went way too cheap.
You can't do that kind of stuff. You have to
be paying attention because sometimes you are going to be
the sheriff. You don't need to be the shriff of
one hundred percent of the time, like I said, but
you do need to do it sometimes and think of
it like this. I know you think to yourself, well,
what does it matter if I get this a couple

(26:42):
bucks here or there. Think of it like this. You're
in a twelve team league. If there are fifteen times
during the draft that you believe a player's price is
too low, and you bid a couple times, just twice,
Let's say you bid only two times on each of
those fifteen players. You can do the math right there, say,
right then, a person paid four more dollars than they

(27:04):
should have because you bid twice So if it stopped
at fourteen and you said fifteen, and then they said sixteen,
you said seventeen, it went up to eighteen. So instead
of fourteen they played eighteen, they paid eighteen. So that
four dollars right there that you pulled from that person
times fifteen instances during the draft, that's sixty dollars right

(27:25):
there that you pulled out of the room. That's a
significant amount of money if you continue to compile these
small edges through your bidding. So that's just an example
in price enforcing, and I would say that's a really
low side example. I think that when you get tells
on people when your market price enforcing, when you're doing
the things that you should be doing to put the

(27:46):
pressure on other people, I'd say that your ability to
pull dollars out of the room is going to get
up into the hundreds of dollars that you're going to
be able to pull out of the room. And you
don't need to push all these advantages to the edge
where you make a mistake. I mean, that's again we're
on the knife edge there. If you're going to keep
pushing hard, you can push really hard, but you don't

(28:06):
have to do that you don't have to put yourself
out there with a ton of risk to be able
to affect the bottom line here. And I really believe
there is a cumulative effect of pulling two dollars four
dollars every time there's a player up for bid that
is going too cheaply and you do that, that has
a dilatorious effect on the rest of the rosters in

(28:28):
the room, and it helps you that much more. So
that's market price enforcing. But what about bidding people up?
I like to say that there's you can think of
it like this. In price enforcing, it's a market based thing,
but in bidding people up, it's really a human based thing.
It's a game theory thing. It's a hey, this person

(28:49):
really needs this wide receiver. They're going to keep going
because they have to get them. They have no top
level players. This is the last top level player. I'm
going to keep going. They're going to keep going too.
It's a game based, psychology based thing, and so therefore
it's much more risky because there's far fewer bright line
rules or ideas price enforcing. Market price enforcing is really

(29:12):
it's more of like a gradient. It's not a bright
line rule but it is much easier to see the
edge of where you should be stopping. Bidding someone up
is a field thing. It's totally a field thing. You
have to be able to read that person. Sometimes behind
the computer you can't even read them at that point.
You're only reading they're bidding and they're nominating and how

(29:32):
much money and space they have left. You're just reading
things on a computer screen and you have to you
have to kind of look into that and see what
that means. But in a live draft, this is human based.
But either way, it's it's a game theory thing, so
there is a lot of room for mistakes. And I
just have to say this over and over. You need

(29:53):
to be comfortable using these strategies, otherwise don't do them.
It's one of the most advanced things you can do
in an auction after room is trying to bid someone
up because you think you have a toell on them.
And I'm here to say that what I told you
in the episode a couple of weeks ago about tells
they're not always super reliable and sometimes people change, they

(30:14):
do different things. You just can't always rely on the
things that you think you're seeing. And I don't want
you to ruin your draft by trying to do this stuff.
But I do think, but I do think, bidding people
up is something you have to learn how to do eventually.
So make some mistakes, but make them on the small side.
Try to pull a couple bucks from somebody, and if

(30:35):
it doesn't work, you didn't get stuck with somebody really
for a really high price. And try not to just
be bald face saying I don't think they're going to stop.
It goes back to have a reason again, why don't
you think they're going to stop? What is it about
their roster, their cap space, their needs, whatever that tells
you that they're going to continue to bid. So come

(30:56):
up with those reasons, and then if you're wrong, you
go back. I can say, okay, well why was I wrong?
How did I miss on this? And why did this
person stop bidding when I thought they were going to
keep bidding. So you're really going to try to affect
the bottom line of every manager in that room through
your market price enforcing and through bidding them up when
you think you.

Speaker 4 (31:17):
Can get it done.

Speaker 2 (31:18):
You're going to come upon a lot of situations where
you think you can do that. There's two managers left
in the room that need a tight end, and there's
only one good, starting startable tight end left. You know
you're going to see a bidding war between those couple
of players, and you can start that off by doing
the nomination and then by jumping in there and clicking

(31:38):
some bids. They need that player, now, don't do it.
If it's David and Joku. I don't think they're going
to feel entitled to David and Joku. But if it's
George Kittle, they're gonna bid. So there are situations that
you can see like that. They come up all the time.
Don't be scared to try to exploit them. I think
it is a massive part of becoming an elite auction

(31:59):
drafter is raining cap dollars from the room with your
bidding strategies and your aggressive bid enforcement. So let's get
into the dus and don'ts, because I think there's some
pitfalls here that you can fall victim to, and I

(32:19):
don't want you to make mistakes because we're trying to
be too aggressive with the bidding. So let's talk about
some dues and don'ts and some things that I see
in draft rooms that I want you to be aware
of my first on the first of five dues. And
don'ts that I want to talk to you about is
a really simple one, but one that we tend to
gloss over sometimes. If you know you're going to bid,

(32:42):
just bid, So do put in your bid as quickly
as you know you're going to bid. Don't play games
with your bidding online. That can lead to disasters. Number One,
if you're waiting until there's three or two seconds left
on the clock, sometimes it's going to glitch and you're
not going to get that bid in don't play games.
But the other thing is I talked about this a
couple of weeks ago, and I want to say it again.

(33:04):
There is a weird tendency out there for people to
save their bid until the players about to be sold,
and then they jump right in and they say their
bid at the last second. For some reason, drafters believe
that that is going to help them get a lower price.
And I don't know where that comes from. It's a
psychological thing, and it's something I've had to really police

(33:25):
with myself too, because I've done that for many years.
Like I'm gonna wait and act like I'm not gonna
bid and then I'm gonna bid at the last second.
I don't know why this thing persists, but it does.
So the first thing I'm going to say is, if
you know you're gonna bid, just bid. Don't play games.
You're trying to project something to another person that's likely
not even paying attention at all to what you're doing. Okay,

(33:48):
that is the stark reality of these auction draft rooms.
We have to think of it like this. Look, if
I'm here constantly preaching to you that if you do
these things, you're ahead of eighty five percent or ninety
five percent or ninety eight percent of auction drafters out there,
then what does that tell you that we have to
have that same baseline when we're acting. So just because

(34:09):
you're trying to project something with I'm going to wait
till the very end and click it at the last second.
First of all, i'd ask you, what are you trying
to project there? What are you trying to tell them?
I honestly think it seems weaker if you bid at
the end, like, oh, if I just bid again, this
person didn't want to bid just now, they're going to fold.
So every time you act like you're unsure and bid
at the last second. I think that gives the other

(34:31):
person more reason to believe that you're going to quit.
So I do know what it is that you're trying
to project there, but again it's likely lost on the
other person. I'll make a quick poker analogy here. There's
a lot of times when I'm sitting at a poker
table and I'm sitting there with not very good players,
and I think to myself, these aren't very good players
just play ABC poker, play right up the middle poker

(34:54):
because they're not watching what you're doing or paying attention
to the nuances that you may be trying to project.
For example, on a paired board board comes out king
king five. How would I play that if I had
a king, Well, I'd probably check the flop and bet
the turn, or i'd check and if a person bets,
i'd check raise them. That's how i'd play it. But
you can't do that against bad players because all they

(35:15):
think is, oh, he's trying to run me over. No way,
he's got a king. That's just how they're built. You
can't be that way. And I can't sit there and
try to represent that I have that king, because it
doesn't work. I can't sit there and say, oh, well,
how would I play a king? I would check, and
then I would go for a check raise or a
check and I'd bet the turn. They're not thinking about that.

(35:37):
They don't know that. They're not thinking about what you're doing.
They barely even notice that you're alive, let alone analyzing
how you'd play a flop set. Okay, that's the same
thing here. If you're doing something that's some psychological trick
with your bidding, at the end of the clock, it's
not working. The projection is likely lost number one and
number two. If we're going to give them a baseline

(36:00):
of they're not studying the same things you are, then
don't try to put moves on them as though they are.
I'm not calling all the people in your draft rooms dumb.
I'm calling them not tuned in to some of the
advantages in the auction game that they could have if
they're paying attention more. They're not auction brief listeners. They're
not working as hard as you. They're not getting all

(36:22):
this advice because frankly, they're not here, so you can't
treat them as though they are. So whatever you're trying
to do with that. Don't just stop it, okay, do
put in your bids when you know you're going to bid.
The end of the story right there, that's part of
not getting fancy, all right. Number two on the dues
and don'ts is don't walk the bid up one dollar

(36:43):
out of time. If the player is a somewhat elite
player or a player that should be going let's say
over twenty or twenty five dollars, don't walk it up
one dollar at a time because you're giving your opponent
an advantage. You're taking off the pressure. Now, there are
some pros cons to it. Sometimes you need time to think.
And I've said this before. If you need the time,

(37:05):
take the time, use the clock, wait and do your thinking.
That's okay, one hundred percent. If that's the priority, that's
the priority. Use it. It also gives you time to
get used to the idea that you're spending money on
a player. Maybe you didn't think you wanted to, or
you're back into a corner like I have to get
this player, or I didn't want to pay over forty,
but now I'm into the forties. It gives you some

(37:26):
time to get used to it. That's cool, But in general,
I just don't believe in walking the bid up one
dollar at a time for the higher level players. Now,
when it gets into ten and twelve and fifteen dollars territory, yes,
absolutely do it one at a time. And I know
I've just spent the whole episode telling you don't get fancy. Generally,
just make it one dollar per bid. But I think

(37:48):
on the higher dollar players you have to make an
exception because you're taking the pressure off of the other
party by just letting them think about that player all
while it's going eighteen nineteen, twenty twenty one, when it's
going to get all the way up to thirty eight,
you're giving them too much time. It gives them time
to get used to spending the money. It gives them
time to think, who's more prepared here? You are, right,

(38:10):
if you're more prepared, you're losing your advantage by letting
them walk that bid up. So when it comes Tyreek Hill,
you know whether or not you're in or out on
Tyreek Hill, you've already thought about, You've already gained it.
Like we talk about earlier in the summer, you know,
and you know what you're going to pay for him too.
So I'm not saying to jump it way up. And
we're going to talk about that right here in just

(38:31):
a second with the Priceline bid that Scott Pianowski talked about.
I don't want you to jump it up to fifty immediately.
That's not what I'm saying. But on Tyreek Kill, somebody
calls him out for one, two, three, and it's eight, nine, ten,
Throw thirty five out there, Okay, boom thirty five or forty.
You know he's not going for less than forty bucks.
Throw forty out there. Don't get crazy, okay, don't get crazy.

(38:54):
That can get dangerous. But get a big number out
there to get it moving so that people don't have
time to think. That's about pressure, okay, and you should
know the general idea about where those players are going
to go. Again, don't do this when you don't know. Okay,
maybe the room doesn't care about wide receivers and you
yell out forty five and that's the top receiver for

(39:16):
the day, then you just landed a receiver. Don't do
that if you know the room. You're doing this if
you don't know the room, Okay, Tyreek Hill, call out
thirty call out thirty five. You get my point here,
don't allow the other party time to think. Keep the
pressure on by putting in that bid on the top
level players that gets it moving, and even the wide
receiver twos, the RB twos, if they're going to be

(39:39):
over I'd say twenty or twenty five bucks is really
my cutof there for using that tactic. Okay, let's go
on to number three. Number three is one that's that's
a pretty specific situation. But I want to say this,
do force your way to the top of the pile
near the end of the draft. What do I mean
by the top of the pile. I want you to
have at some point point. I want you to have

(40:02):
the most money in the room to be able to
drop the hammer on one of the best players left.
You can't always do this, but I really like the
idea that you want to force your way to the
top at some point to land the last top player,
because it's going to happen in just about every draft
where you get deep in the draft and there's a

(40:22):
player there that you know shouldn't still be on the board,
and everybody in the room knows it, but nobody's talking
about it. Let's say that somebody. Let's say that Tank
Dell is left. Okay, he's not a super high level player,
but this is the kind of player that when you're
in round thirteen and people don't have very many roster spots,

(40:44):
they don't have very much money left, and Tank Dell
is still sitting out there, that's a big player at
that point in the draft. It's not a big deal
in round two, it's a huge deal in round thirteen.
And this is going to happen a lot. Okay, everyone's
hoping nobody else notices they're gonna get Dell cheap when
you've spent your money or clogged up your team. But

(41:05):
you need to make that guy yours, all right, because
that's the last player and you have near the most money,
but you don't have the most money yet. The only
goal you have at that point is to get yourself
to the top of the heap. Let's say that your
max is seventeen dollars at this point, and you have
one rival in the room that has a little bit
more money. That rival has nineteen dollars. You're both sitting

(41:28):
there looking at Tank Dell. Now everybody in the room
is looking at Tank Dell and somebody's probably gonna ruin
your plans here in just a minute by calling him
out because they know they're not getting them, so they
want you to spend some money. So before that happens,
you need to fight your way to the top of
the heap. You need to do everything you can to
get that person to spend a couple bucks to take
their max bid down. You need to get that max

(41:50):
bid of they're nineteen below you're seventeen, or even with
your seventeen, in which case you need to be yelling
out seventeen for Dell when he comes up. Do whatever
you can. This means nominations, this means bidding. It means
a lot of times shutting up when they're about to
buy somebody. Because again, I want to tell you this
is where the lack of watching these situations can hurt

(42:14):
other players and where it's going to help you. A
lot of times that we're having a massive storm as
I'm talking to you right now, But jeez, where was
I that hit close? A lot of times, I've got
a secret for you, folks. That person with the nineteen bucks,
they don't even know that they're in competition with you.
You might be the only one that knows between the
two of you, so they might not even know. You

(42:38):
got to get them to spend that money. So they're
not going to be sitting back and saying, Oh, I
can't spend any money because I want tank Dell. No,
they're just going to be thinking, Oh, I need my
backup tight end, or I need my second quarterback, or
I need my final running back, whatever they need. Get
that player out there. Or if they bid and they
get to two or three dollars on a player, I

(42:59):
don't care who that player is unless it's tanked del
You are not bidding to take them off the hook.
Let them get the player. They need to take that
player to get below you.

Speaker 4 (43:09):
So do force your way.

Speaker 2 (43:11):
To the top of the heap at some point so
that you can land that last impact player. I love
this move, and it's just a move that requires patience
and a little bit of looking into what does that
player need and where are they vulnerable if I nominate
or bid or choose to stop bidding again refer to
the beginning. Sometimes you just need to shut up. You
got to get your way to the top of the

(43:32):
pile to land that hammer and get that last player
to land that tank Dell level player late in the draft.
All right, two more and these, like I said, they're
not super quick hitters, you know. I mean, I don't
do anything quick. But yeah, I got two more, and
I like them because they are things that I see.

(43:52):
I want to talk about Scott Pianowski's price Line bid,
so I'm gonna go ahead and call this one. Don't
use the price line bid with an important caveat. I'm
not here to say Scott is wrong. Scott Pianowski called
it the price line bid because they have that feature
on price Line where you can name the price of
the hotel and they'll see whether they can find that

(44:14):
hotel price for you. I don't even know if they
still do that anymore, but yes, name your price. And
he talked about it, saying, okay, well, I'm going to
call out this number because I'm comfortable having that player
with that number, and if I land him, great. If
I don't, then somebody's overpaying because they're paying more than
I wanted to pay. I don't mind the idea behind it,

(44:36):
and I think that Scott is a very advanced auction
drafter so he can pull it off. But in general,
I want to do that, but I want to do
it a little bit more conservative. So the reason I
say don't use the price line bid, maybe I should
change that too. Don't be too aggressive with the price
line bid, because I think it's dangerous to assume what
the opinions are in the room about a certain player

(44:56):
at any certain time, because you can tell yourself, oh,
I'm go to bid fifteen and that's the perfect price
line bid, and then if you hear crickets, maybe you
were wrong. And like Scott said, you know, sometimes you're
going to be wrong. He's okay with accepting that. I
get it, but I'm a little bit more conservative from
the standpoint that I think instead of saying fifteen, maybe
you should have said ten or twelve. You never know.

(45:19):
But the price line bid, I know the whole point
of it is to shock people into quitting and not bidding. Like, Okay,
well I really believe that. I don't know Cooper Cup.
I don't believe this. I'm just saying, let's say, if
you really believe Cooper Cup's gonna come back and be
a top twelve wide receiver, and you know you're gonna
pay up to twenty four bucks for him, you know
that your valuation of him is he's a twenty eight

(45:41):
or thirty dollars player. So when he comes up for bid,
yell out twenty one.

Speaker 4 (45:45):
That's okay.

Speaker 2 (45:46):
That's completely okay, because you value that player enough that
that twenty one is a decent number. But what I'd
rather have you do is, say sixteen or eighteen. If
you're trying to blow somebody out of the water and
they say four, say eighteen. See what they do.

Speaker 4 (46:01):
Now.

Speaker 2 (46:01):
Maybe it doesn't work, and it's not gonna work a
lot of the time, but again, you've put the pressure
on them. And I also just want to submit to
you that you don't know what people in that room
think about Cooper Cup. Maybe that room is the Cooper
Cup hatingist group of people that you've ever met, and
maybe you're gonna get Cup for eighteen or sixteen or whatever,
or maybe there's just not enough money in the room.

(46:22):
I think the price line bid is dangerous, so I
think you can use it conservatively, but I think in
general I want this rule to be don't use the
price line bid. I think there's just too much room
for it to backfire. Calling out a number that's too
close to the maximum price that you want to pay
is just asking for trouble, and I think it gets
you into trouble, all right. The last one that I

(46:42):
want to talk about before I get a lightning bolt
through this microphone. I feel like a plane settler right now,
like my house is about to come down on top
of me.

Speaker 4 (46:54):
Ugh.

Speaker 2 (46:55):
Yes, before I get a lightning bolt through the microphone,
let me say the last one. The fifth of my
dues in Don't's list is do remember how important each
bid becomes near the end of a draft. Remember how
important each bid gets near the end of a draft.
The later you get in the draft, I want you

(47:17):
to think of it like a sliding scale. The later
you get in the draft, the less you want to
have your mouth open. Do not be bidding all the
time late in a draft, because there's far lower prices,
far less money in the room, less roster spots, all
that stuff. It means that mistakes are easier, that it's
way easier to make a mistake. And on top of that,

(47:38):
each dollar and roster spot at that point takes on
greater significance. So whereas early in a draft, if you're
being slopping, you yell out thirty seven. Somebody might say
thirty eight because the players are much higher priced. But
if you're slopping, you say three and nobody cares about four.

Speaker 4 (47:55):
You've really hurt.

Speaker 2 (47:56):
Yourself by losing a roster spot in three important dollars.
Each dollar, each roster spot becomes more important, and as
they're more critical, I want you to keep your mouth
shut more. The further you get into the draft, the
more I want you to just shut up, think, listen,
and figure out what your endgame moves are going to be.

(48:17):
So that's how I want to end it today. Don't
forget how critical the end of the auction is to
your success and to the final team that you put together.
Just ask people last year who drafted Pukainakua at the
end of their draft. It is important who you end
up with at the end of your draft. It's almost
the most critical portion of any auction draft is that

(48:39):
last twenty percent, where each roster spot and each dollar
is so important to your success. Okay, well that's going
to do it for the auction talk this week. I've
enjoyed going through the nuts and bolts the last couple
of weeks. We're going to end the season with some
more sort of nebulous stuff. We're going to talk about
inflection points. We're going to talk about a couple of

(48:59):
my fas favorite moves that I use in an auction room,
and then we're going to end it with the auction Manifesto.
So we've only got three episodes left after this week.
I think we've hit a lot of the stuff that
I wanted to hit this summer, but we've got a
few more episodes to really hammer it home. Let's finish
up the auction talk for this week. We've got an
amazing guest for Discussions with Drew, Mike right from the

(49:20):
Fantasy Footballers. What do you say we get over and
talk to Mike right now, Let's do another Discussions with Drew.

Speaker 3 (49:28):
Time for Discussions with Drew, in depth conversations with the
brightest minds in the fantasy industry.

Speaker 2 (49:37):
Welcome into this week's Discussions with Drew. Our guest this
week needs no introduction, the fantasy hit man, mister Mike Wright,
is joining the show today. He is, of course, the
co host of the number one fantasy football podcast in
all of the land, as well as the co host
of the Spitballers Pod, which I want to get into
just a little bit today and hear what that's all about.

(49:58):
Welcome to the show, Mike. Thanks for making time for
the auction brief.

Speaker 1 (50:01):
You got it, man, I like the I don't need
an introduction, but I'm gonna do. But you do it anyway,
so I appreciate that.

Speaker 2 (50:09):
Thank you, you bet you bet well. You've earned all that.
So I do want to hear about this Spitballer's podcast.
But I always like to lead off by if there's
anybody out there who doesn't know who you are, just
tell them where they can find you. But also I
want to hear a little bit about the Ultimate Draft Kit.

Speaker 4 (50:23):
And you know what else?

Speaker 2 (50:25):
Do you want people to have eyes on this time
of year for the work you're doing?

Speaker 4 (50:28):
Sure?

Speaker 1 (50:29):
So, hey, everybody a Mike from the Fantasy Footballer's Podcast.
We are a We're a year round fantasy football podcast.
We our main show does focus on redraft. We touch
a little bit on Dynasty, but hey, if Dynasty is
your thing, we got a show for that too. What
I mean, August is coming up, so we're about to

(50:49):
be five times a week. So if you need a
commuter show that's going to make you a better fantasy
football player, keep you updated and you know it's going
to give you some chuckles along the way. You're just
gonna have a good time. You can check us out
wherever your podcasts are available. The Ultimate Draft Kit. That
is our that's our baby. That is the flagship product

(51:12):
of the Fantasy Footballers where like, this thing launches on
June first, and then we keep it updated all throughout
the off season. It's everything you need to get ready
for a draft. You know, we provide tools so you
can do your own research. You get our rankings, our
full projections, our tiered rankings, cheat cheet creators.

Speaker 4 (51:30):
I mean, it's just it really.

Speaker 1 (51:32):
Is a one stop shop for anyone who's getting ready
for a draft.

Speaker 4 (51:36):
It's got it.

Speaker 1 (51:37):
We got an app companion, and we're just it's something
that we're always very very proud of it because of
the months and months and months of work that go
into it. So you can check that out Ultimate Draftkit
dot com. Oh in Spitballers, So let's talk Tom. I
feel like I'm on a stump speech right now. The
Spitballers podcast is. Look, if you enjoy, which I hope

(52:01):
you do, if you enjoy the nonsense of the fantasy
footballers that breaks out from time to time.

Speaker 4 (52:08):
That's what the Spitballers is.

Speaker 1 (52:10):
So it's not football, but we do just absolute ridiculous
would you rather questions? We play games and then we
always do a of like a fun draft at the end,
like this week, what do we do.

Speaker 4 (52:25):
Like?

Speaker 1 (52:26):
I mean, it's it's outrageous, like from the best movie
deaths to the best things that are the color yellow.
I mean, it's it's all over the place and we
just have a good time and it's something that you
can listen to in front of your kids and still
enjoy yourself.

Speaker 4 (52:42):
So that new episodes drop every Monday for Spitballers.

Speaker 2 (52:46):
Every Monday for the Spitballers. Okay, well, so about to
be five times a week for the main show, Yes, sir,
I know. Hey, I've got friends that like my show,
but I compete with you guys, they're my actual I'm
sorry for that, but listen to you so now, hey, no,
that's great, and that's they're excited that you're coming on.
Uh and they are looking forward to this episode more

(53:07):
than hearing me run my mouth. But I have to
ask you, because I've always heard the fantasy hitman Moniker,
where's that come from?

Speaker 1 (53:17):
So it's really it's it's such a bad story that
I think now it's a good story. It's it's don't
get your hopes some but uh we we uh.

Speaker 4 (53:30):
The Fantasy Footballer started.

Speaker 1 (53:32):
It was just me and Andy and we were what
we originally were doing was a podcast just for our league,
just for the other ten people in the Fantasy football league,
and we would do it once a week during our
lunch hour at work, and it was so much fun,
and everyone in the in the league like.

Speaker 4 (53:51):
I mean, we're talking about them, so it's it's it's
easier to get excited. But it was just it.

Speaker 1 (53:56):
We had such a good time doing it, and we're like, hey,
what if if we had a public facing podcast, and
we just we like, we know what we're talking about.
Let's try and get out there and educate and entertain people.
So we start doing the Fantasy Footballers. Well, part of
the process was what's the name gonna be? And we
land on the Fantasy Footballers. One of them was the

(54:18):
Fantasy hit Men, and that one didn't go very far.
So we are just like two weeks into this show
and Andy has a vacation plan and I'm like, for
two weeks in man, I got to keep the show going.

Speaker 4 (54:33):
So I literally go into our office.

Speaker 1 (54:36):
There's another guy, there's other people in our league that
are in the office with us at our previous job,
and I go, hey, Nick, I need you to be
my co host this week. And he's like okay. So
he comes in. He really doesn't end up saying much
and I just dominate the show. And part of the
bit that I went with was Andy's not here, so
I get to do whatever I want to do. And

(54:58):
then I was like, Nick refer to me as the
fantasy hit Man and I so, so that was just
like a bit during the show. And Andy comes back
and he's like, what is this fantasy hit man stuff?

Speaker 4 (55:10):
And I laugh. I'm like it's because it's so stupid.

Speaker 1 (55:12):
And then I then spend like the remainder of the
episodes whenever Andy introduces me, I like, no, no, this
is the fantasy hit Man over here. So I kind
of spoke it into existence. I mean, my name is
Mike Wright, Like, there's there's ten bajillion of us on
the planet. I need something that at least stands out

(55:33):
a little bit. So it worked out.

Speaker 4 (55:35):
I got a.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
I got a funny branding and it was just out
of sheer will of my own that I made it stick.

Speaker 2 (55:43):
Well, you know, it's a pretty good story, even though
you think it's not, because it really you know, if
if you don't know the genesis of the story, it
sounds pretty ominous and cutthroat and tough.

Speaker 4 (55:54):
No, it's not me at all.

Speaker 2 (55:58):
That's all right, that's all right. Well, I'll tell you
what my I we talked about this off air, But
I love the shirt. You can't you all can't see
the shirt. He's got the Randy Moss straight cash. I
love it. My buddy pat Is that's his team name
in my league is my home league, So excellent. Love
love the shirt. Well, hey, I could talk to you

(56:19):
guys all day because I find what you guys built
fascinating as well as you know, something that I always
just keep my eye on because you guys are doing
it right, and you're doing it well. But let's get
into some fantasy stuff, because of course that's what we
want to talk about. We are in training camps, we're
turning the corner to August, and we got a lot
of stuff we want to we want to know about

(56:41):
and you're a great person to ask. So we're going
to play a little game here called this or that,
And I've just lined up some of the toughest picks,
or at least, in my opinion, some of the toughest
picks in the first few rounds here. And what your
opinions are. Obviously, we're splitting hairs here. We're talking about
first and second round. So it's not something where we

(57:03):
hate one person or the other, but we have to
split hairs because that's what we're doing when we're on
the clock. So in round one, one of the toughest
things that I find I'm up against here if I'm
not going to look at the receiver, if I'm at
that right spot in the first round, I'm staring at
Breise Hall or Bjeon Robinson and I have gone back
and forth between those two all summer long. I'm a

(57:24):
little bit nervous about the fact that Hall's PPR value
was so bullied by the checkdown rates from the guys
he was playing with last year. Sure, so that makes
me concerned. What is your opinion Hall or Robinson?

Speaker 1 (57:35):
Yeah, I'm with you that it is a brutal decision
of I have right now in my projections, I have
Breese Hall number two in terms of running backs. Bijon
is behind him at three, and they are separated by
five total points. So this is not a I'm coming
in here with a slam dunk argument for Briess Hall,
but it's just a like, I'm I'm slightly more confident

(58:01):
in Breis Hall's ability. That's and that's what comes down
to of like the the electric week winning play, not
you know, not just the volume, because it would be
wild this year if Briesshall or Bijeon don't get true
workhorse volume. But it's just I know for sure that

(58:22):
Breezehall can house it from anywhere on the field, and
I'm not saying Bijeon can't. I'm just saying I'm a
little bit more confident in briss Hall between the two.
It's funny of you know, like we these two running
backs are set up perfectly with our two Achilles tear
old men quarterbacks. And if you want to like split

(58:44):
hairs there Kirk Cousins toward the Achilles on his plant leg.
Does that affect a QB more?

Speaker 4 (58:50):
We don't know.

Speaker 1 (58:51):
There is a fantastic social science experiment that's gonna unveil
in front of our eyes with both of these guys.
So it's just a slight bet more on Aaron Rodgers
his recovery. And on top of that, I don't like
the last time we saw a real healthy Rogers in

(59:12):
Green Bay. He was okay for fantasy football, he wasn't fantastic,
but we have seen this was hot off the heels
of what was the MVP type of stuff that he's
putting out there on the field. Where Kirk Cousins has always,
in my opinion, been an underrated quarterback, that doesn't mean
I think he is an elite quarterback because he his

(59:33):
numbers like they got real juiced up once he finally
had justin Jefferson, where Aaron Rodgers has, Yeah, he had
Adams and he's had all these great players. But there's
still part of Green Bay's wide receiver corp where you
go was that the player or was that Aaron Rodgers
greatness making that player great. So that's just a long

(59:54):
winded argument to say I'm a little more confident five
points more confident in Breeste Hall over Bijon.

Speaker 2 (01:00:02):
Well, yeah, I mean we are splitting hairs here that
five points That doesn't shock me because that is what
we're doing. And I think you make a great point
about this is fascinating to see what's going to happen. Yeah,
these two older quarterbacks and their achilles and and how
these how that's going to play out because we really
don't have a lot of data on quarterbacks, specifically with
with achilles hears. We have it on running backs and

(01:00:24):
that kind of thing. But so I think that's it
is going to be fascinating to see. Let's slide into
round two. I've got two more running backs I'm interested
in because I've heard specifically from my guests all summer
both answers here. But yeah, it's a tough one Jonathan
Taylor or Saquon Barkley. We do have two guys that

(01:00:44):
were doubting a little bit whether or not their PPR
value is going to be intact with two running quarterbacks,
So how do we feel about the running quarterback angle?
But who are you picking here?

Speaker 1 (01:00:57):
That's all that's It's two good names to pit against
each other, right of the they both have the exact
same problem of their quarterback. Their superpowers are their running ability,
not that they're like Jalen Hurts is a good quarterback,
a good thrower of the ball, if you will. Where
that's still TBD on Anthony Richardson's side, But what we

(01:01:20):
know for fantasy football is what a quarterback can run.

Speaker 4 (01:01:24):
They scramble out of the pocket and.

Speaker 1 (01:01:25):
Then instead of being Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger where
they can't do that. So there the outlet is I
throw the ball to my running back. The mobile quarterback says, no,
I don't have to throw to that guy. I'm gonna
do it myself. I'm gonna get the five yards. Maybe
I see an opportunity for a big play. So you
have that problem. Then you have the goal line. That's

(01:01:47):
another problem for these running backs. Of what Jalen Hurts
was like, what fifteen rushing touchdowns something right around there.
I mean it was, yeah, fifteen rushing touchdowns last year.
Another question the absence of Jason Kelcey. What the tush push?
The power of the tush push? We get it was
it Kelsey, was it Hurts? Was it the combination of

(01:02:08):
the two. That that'll be a really fun thing to
find out, uh, because it's we've seen other teams try
to do it right and they can't do it the
way that the Eagles have been successful doing it, So
we get maybe and maybe they'll be able to do
it just fine.

Speaker 4 (01:02:26):
Maybe the the the lore of.

Speaker 1 (01:02:28):
Every time you see it happen. Of course it's Gerald
Jalen Hurts squad six hundred and fifty pounds or whatever
it is. So maybe it's just Jalen Hurts. But I'm
gonna go with I'm gonna go with Jonathan Taylor here
between the two of them.

Speaker 4 (01:02:45):
Sequon Barkley like.

Speaker 1 (01:02:47):
He has some red flags of no, I mean number one,
he does, like guys aren't injury prone, but some guys
do have an injury history. It's that's then turn and
do you get injured a little bit more? That's kind
of what happens, uh swear. Not that Jonathan Taylor of
course doesn't have that, But Jonathan Taylor is the younger guy,

(01:03:10):
Uh theoretically can recover faster. Saquon Barkley is at that
not age cliff, but that season Cliff, where he's been
in the league long enough, and we see running backs
at that point in their career, that's when stuff can
start to fall off. Is he a true outlier? And
the and the and the cliffs don't matter to Saque.

(01:03:31):
We're gonna find out about that, and he it's he'll
need the offensive line. If the offensive line is what
it was last year, like when we saw those the
wide gaping margins and gaps for for DeAndre Swift, Saquon
Barkley will be able to take care of that for sure.
Just you know, small concerns over there on the Eagle side,

(01:03:52):
but I'm gonna take Jonathan Taylor.

Speaker 4 (01:03:54):
I think they.

Speaker 1 (01:03:56):
Will lean on Taylor a little bit more as Richardson
is not a fully established quarterback just yet compared to Hurt.
So again nitpicking, but those are the margins where that
has me lean to the Taylor side.

Speaker 2 (01:04:09):
Okay, well, so far I think that we are one
for one here. I'm with you on Bresee. I would
take Barkley only because I just don't think he's ever
played behind an offensive line like this before. Certainly, I'm
excited to see what that means.

Speaker 4 (01:04:26):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:04:26):
It could mean six rushing touchdowns because Jalen Hurt says
thirteen and fifteen, but it could also mean some fun things.
I don't know. I'm wanting to bet on that, but again,
we're splitting Harrors here because I like Taylor quite a
bit as well. Let's talk about a round three spot
here with a couple of wide receivers. We just saw
DJ Moore signed his extension, and he had a heck

(01:04:48):
of a season last year with a kind of motley
collection of throwers there with I mean, I don't know,
Justin Fields probably would not appreciate being called a motley
quarterback here.

Speaker 1 (01:05:00):
But but there's a reason he doesn't.

Speaker 4 (01:05:04):
Have a job anymore.

Speaker 2 (01:05:05):
Yeah, exactly, there's a reason why he looks terrible in
shorts and T shirts too. So we you know, I
think I'm impressed with what Dj Moore did last year.
But then again, on the other side, we've got Jalen Waddle,
who is of course buried behind Tyreek Hill sometimes by
the targets and the target share there, but whenever Hill

(01:05:26):
comes off the field, Wattle is absolutely dynamite and he
still has a nice little seven eight target floor every week,
even if he's not the guy who do we like
in round three here with the uncertainty of all the
targets in Chicago and Waddle sitting behind Tyreek Hill.

Speaker 1 (01:05:43):
So this one, this one's easy for me. This one
is Jaylen Waddle all right. Also, so the DJ Moore side, yeah,
it was. It was an absolutely electric season. It was
you know, pretty spike wiki you know, like real hot
or cold. Of course, you want players who can run
that hot and win you a week just all on
their own, which DJ Moore had a few of those

(01:06:05):
throughout the course of the season. But the optimism for
Caleb Williams is, I mean it's at a peak, like
people are expecting huge things. If you look at the ADP,
we have three Bears wide receivers inside the top thirty
six wide receivers who are being drafted like this is.

Speaker 4 (01:06:27):
It can't work.

Speaker 1 (01:06:29):
I hate to be the bearer of that bad news,
but that cannot work. Over the course of rookie quarterbacks careers,
we've seen that two thirds of the time for a
rookie quarterback, they fail to sustain one top thirty six
wide receiver by the end of the season, and we're
drafting three of them. It's just it doesn't make sense

(01:06:49):
because Caleb Williams can have a good year and yet
it's just rookie quarterbacks historically don't throw outrageous numbers of
touchdowns and that's why by the second year. Okay, then
I'll then I'll be in on DJ Moore. I need
a year of Caleb Williams. So there's just so and
on top of that, that's like to get us a

(01:07:11):
top thirty six guy.

Speaker 4 (01:07:12):
We have a pretty focused target share. You know.

Speaker 1 (01:07:16):
I believe Keenan Allen is one of those guys with
Justin Herbert because Keenan Allen's seeing all of the targets
for the Chargers at the time. None of these three
guys are going to see the target share at least
in my projection that we really need for a rookie
quarterback to hit the numbers we want. Jalen Waddell on
the other side, last year, big time Bummer, Absolutely big

(01:07:38):
time Bummer finishes as the wide receiver thirty four and
a half points scoring format only appears in fourteen games.
It was just a year ago though he was the
number seven Fantasy wide receiver on the year.

Speaker 4 (01:07:50):
With Tyreek Hill on the team.

Speaker 1 (01:07:52):
Like, this isn't a we don't know what's gonna Like
can they both succeed?

Speaker 4 (01:07:55):
Yeah they can, Like they're like two.

Speaker 1 (01:07:59):
Both of these guy two. It just got paid. Wattle
just got paid. Because this is the offense that they
are committed to. It is a very focused target share. Yeah,
Tyreek Hill is the true number one on the team,
but that's not gonna get in the way. In my
opinion of Jalen Wattle seeing what twenty five percent plus
of the targets like, I think that is in it

(01:08:20):
is very possible for both of them to keep going.
And last year is the numbers on Jalen Waddle are
If you just look at box score and you don't
remember the games, I can see the the thought process
of what an awful year for Wattle. Injuries were so
bad for this guy. You know again, he only appeared

(01:08:41):
in fourteen games, and in games where he was playing,
he was only let me pull it up, he was
seeing an average of sixty eight percent of the snaps.
Like that's he If you watch the games so many
times he was you'd go down. You go, oh, Wattle's
done for the game for the year. You're freaking out.
He goes off and then eventually fights his way back

(01:09:02):
on the field, but he's clearly hurt for the majority
of the season. Just the unreported injuries that were not
because we're like, are you inter you out?

Speaker 4 (01:09:13):
Just tell me are you playing.

Speaker 1 (01:09:14):
You know, it's it, but guys are playing through injury
all the time.

Speaker 4 (01:09:17):
And I think that that's what happened to Jalen Waddle.

Speaker 1 (01:09:20):
I think that he is an incredible, dynamic, emerging superstar
wide receiver that I don't care that Tybreek Kill is there,
Like they're going to have one of the best offenses
in the league. TA will push for league leader in
receiving yards as long as we can get those touchdowns
where we need him to be. Jalen Wattle comes through

(01:09:41):
it as ADP.

Speaker 2 (01:09:43):
Yeah, and I think the last thing you said there
is is huge because people don't like to hear it.
But sometimes it's just bad luck. And I think he
had some bad TD luck last year. I mean there
was some you know, he was on the poor end
of the variants there.

Speaker 1 (01:09:55):
Yeah, only four eight the previous year and dropped down
to four. I mean, and we knew that the sophomore season.
The yards were completing at eighteen point one, Like that's
not sustainable, rights, that's an outlier number, but fourteen point one,
that's fine.

Speaker 4 (01:10:10):
He can do that. Which the eighteen point one that's
also there's a wide.

Speaker 1 (01:10:15):
Receiver who did that last year, and I think he's
being a little drafted as overdrafted. That's Brandon Ayuk, which
contract negotiating negotiation issues aside, he would Brandon Ayuk was
unbelievably efficient last year and will certainly regress, maybe not
as much as Wattle did, but that's just what I

(01:10:37):
don't know. It reminded me of that, so I'm throwing
it out.

Speaker 2 (01:10:39):
Yeah, yeah, No, it's a valid point because Wattle and
you mentioned the injuries too, Wattles whatever it was the
hip or the core, I can't remember.

Speaker 4 (01:10:47):
Yeah, I don't.

Speaker 1 (01:10:48):
The final one was. So the final one was the ankle.
Week three was a concussion, Yeah, and then he had
other stuff going on.

Speaker 2 (01:10:56):
Yeah, there was some hip or core injury that was
really bothering him, and that kind of stuff can just
linger the whole year. So hopefully that's going to be
something we can get past this year. But I'm with
you on this, so I think we're in agreement on
Waddle there more you hit on it. The target share
really scares me. With the rookie quarterback and those there's
these are three guys who can earn targets at a

(01:11:19):
high level and we don't know how that's going to
shake out, and that worries me, especially with the quarterback.
The volume, all of that stuff is very concerning to
me for his current price tag. So I'm with you
on Waddle. Let's head over to round four. This one
might be easy. I don't it's easy for me, but
I'm not going to spoil who that is. But it's

(01:11:40):
going back to the running backs here in round four.
James Cook or Joe Mixon. What are your thoughts there?

Speaker 1 (01:11:47):
So this one is actually easy for me. I've been
fading Joe Mixon all off season. I'm I'm in on
James Cook. Joe Mixon is like he is at the
a cliff part of his career where I do have
tremendous worries he has been he is for me, he
has been the ultimate, uh, the breaking bad meme of

(01:12:11):
he can't keep getting away with this on Cincinnati, of
just being so inefficient and yet being their guy just
like I mean, the guy absolutely volumed his way and
I can't take it away from him. Like the guy
was great for fantasy football the last couple of years,
especially last year was fantastic, But.

Speaker 4 (01:12:34):
I just can you keep doing that?

Speaker 1 (01:12:36):
I know that he's they that he's traded for and
they like bumped up the money and he's already dealing
with a hamstring injury, which camp hamstring injuries.

Speaker 4 (01:12:47):
Are bad news.

Speaker 1 (01:12:48):
So hopefully he gets back on the field soon. But
my my larger question comes down to Joe Mixon was
such a PPR dominator because of like the scheme that
they had his connection with with Joe Burrow over there
last year sixty four targets, seventy five the year before that.

(01:13:09):
I mean like he's always had a huge target share.
Now we go to the Texans, it is definitely a
chicken or egg situation for the Texans that we don't
have the information yet. Some quarterbacks check down to their
running back all the time. Some guys just don't, and c. J. Stroud,
at least last year was a guy who didn't. Fifteen

(01:13:31):
percent of the targets of the team targets went to
the running back position, thirtieth in the NFL, and you
could see it. Stroud was more of a I'll wait
that fraction of a second and I'm gonna see if
Nico or Tank Dell can break open down the field.

Speaker 4 (01:13:46):
That's what he wants.

Speaker 1 (01:13:48):
And maybe was that a Devin Singletary problem of not
really trusting him, which Singletary had some a decent target
share at the end of the season. I can agree
with that, but now you add Stefan Diggs. Does Stefan
Diggs have gas left in the tank? That's TBD, but
he's going to get a target share you just paid

(01:14:08):
Nico Tank. Like the way that c J.

Speaker 4 (01:14:11):
Stroud talks about.

Speaker 1 (01:14:12):
Tank Dell is I wish I wish anyone cared about
me the way that Stroud cares about Tank Dell. I
don't know if you've seen these clips of like they're
c J. Stroud talking to I can't remember who they're
building basically fantasy lineups. So he's listing off like, no,
I'll give me Devanta Adams at X and then and
I don't remember who the other superstar wide receiver was,

(01:14:33):
and then it's okay, who's in the slot?

Speaker 4 (01:14:34):
Tank Dell? Like immediate answer from c J.

Speaker 1 (01:14:38):
Stroud if you could pick anyone in the NFL, he's
already picking Tank Dell.

Speaker 4 (01:14:42):
So he loves this guy. He's gonna get him targets.

Speaker 1 (01:14:45):
So that's the question of can these three wide receivers
eat into the target shair like we expect them to.
And then Joe Mixon has any enough left right, So
that's that's my biggest question for him, on top of
his age, on top of how many seasons played, and
then j Cook over the second half when they changed
the offense and when Stefan Dicks was phased out, James

(01:15:05):
Cook was getting more and more work, especially in the
passing game. He's James Cook can't probably can't. I won't
use I won't use definitive language. He probably can't be
a top three guy because Josh Allen is gonna take
the rushing touchdowns or they're gonna put in They they
love the big beef boys up there in the in Buffalo.
Like if they're old, we don't care. Like we got

(01:15:28):
Latavius Murray. Let's feed this old man near the goal line.
Ray Davis is kind of I mean, he's an old
man for a rookie, so maybe he ends up with
the goal line opportunities. But I'm taking the youth, I'm
taking the upside where I think Joe Mixon is fine
at his ADP.

Speaker 4 (01:15:44):
It's just fine. It's not an exciting pick though.

Speaker 2 (01:15:47):
Again we agree here because mixing, Yeah, it's just been
something that's just I just he comes up and I
can't click the button. I just can't do it. If
you watch him in Cincinnati, you know the volume was
all it was. There's just nothing there anymore. In my opinion,
as you see him on a football field, it's all

(01:16:08):
volume based. And if that is not there to prop
him up, we have serious problems. And I don't believe
he belongs there right now. I'm actually going to just
push back a little bit and say I don't really
like him at adp Okay, He's okay, yeah, and I'm fine.
I guess fine is a good word, but I just
right there every time there's somebody else around him that
I'm more interested in. But yeah, James Cook easily for

(01:16:31):
me there. Totally agree. And you know, this is a
guy that's everybody was really excited about a couple of
years ago. Then all of a sudden they draft somebody
and people start to think, oh, what about this new guy.
But hey, yeah, the other guy had a lot of
touches over the second half of the season, and they
really remade that offense into a run first offense. So
I don't know what we could not like about that
idea with James Cook. But all right, well, hey, we

(01:16:54):
are getting a little deep here, so I'm going to
skip the round five to one. I'm want to talk
a little bit about some training camp narratives because there
is a couple things coming out and these may be
going a little bit deep, but hey, that's what we
do here. These are some of the questions we're going
to have when we're getting into our drafts in the
eighth and ninth or whatever tenth rounds, and I think
that stuff is important, just as it is to talk

(01:17:16):
about the round one and two guys. So there's a
narrative coming out of Cincinnati. There's actually two narratives. Why
don't we just hit the Cincinnati narratives right out of
the gate. All right, there's two of them that are
coming in right now that are interesting to me because
I've been a bit of a Zach Moss guy. Not
that I expect him to be some top twelve running back,
but I think that his current ADP's right around RB

(01:17:37):
twenty six, and I felt like if he carved out
an early down roll and then had some goal line work,
that was going to be a smash. But I'm concerned
because right now, the narrative is Chase Brown is the
early favorite to lead this backfield in touches, So there's
got to be one of these guys that's got to
be mispriced because Chase Brown's right about RB forty right now.
So if we're believing that, then Brown is woefully under

(01:18:00):
and Moss is being overdrafted. I don't know what to
think right now. Is that just a narrative? Are you
starting to feel like Brown's going to be the guy?

Speaker 1 (01:18:07):
So my concern is moving now towards they both will
just destroy each other. That's my fear is moving that way.
And it's been a it's been quite the ride of
the offseason for me.

Speaker 4 (01:18:23):
We just on the most recent Dynasty.

Speaker 1 (01:18:25):
Podcast we talked about who is a player that you
have now cooled on, and for me, it was Zach Moss.
I came into the process really excited one and like
all the kind of negative things that we just said
about Joe Mixon, that was like, well, if Zach Moss
can at least do that which Jack Moss looked good

(01:18:46):
at times last year, If he can just do that
and he gets I don't know, eighty five ninety percent
of what they gave to Joe Mixon. How can you
not be good for fantasy football? Like volume is the
king at the running back position. And just over the
course of the offseason, I was watching his ADP like
it's so low, it's staying and then it just keeps

(01:19:06):
staying low, and it's okay. The people who are playing basketball,
like we have sharp people over here. They're putting their
money on the line. Let me look into this deeper.
So I start building out some ADP research and a
stat that really it's a historical stat, but it really

(01:19:28):
impacted me of So this is just buckle up because
it's a little bit longer. Since twenty fourteen, running backs
drafted since twenty fourteen, we have seen seventy one of
them finish at least top twenty four. So seventy one
guys since twenty fourteen have finished in the top twenty four.

(01:19:50):
Guys who did it for the first time in year five.
Three of those seventy one. Now, there's a lot of
reasons for that because generally in the NFL, if you're good,
we're gonna know right away because teams will put you
on the field right away. It's been a journey here
for Zach Moss and he seems to have finally earned

(01:20:11):
his way into a starting position. But it's like the
cautionary tale is literally it happened last year Alexander Madison.
I thought it could work for Alexander Madison and it
went about as terrible as it can go. Guess who
was in year five of his career getting his first

(01:20:32):
opportunity and complete failure. So I that stat was like, okay,
so historically you're telling me the percentage chance is extremely low,
and that's not even going to factor in the draft
capitol because if you factor him where he was drafted,
it's just one one guy who fits that profile. Uh,
And it's these like und you know, undrafted guys or

(01:20:55):
guys who are pass catchers. Then the Chase Brown news
comes out and you go, oh, because I had dismissed
Chase Brown, Like this guy's he's not what the Chase
Brown hive his seeing. He really like to me, he
was like he had one really good play last year.
He was not allowed on the field third third down.
They don't trust him for pass protection, which they will

(01:21:17):
trust Zak Moss. I mean, Mos graded out as I
think the best pass protector at running back last year,
so that does matter. But it is just like the
probability is so against him his ADP, both of them. Honestly,
Another ADP is like, I'm gonna sprinkle these guys into
some teams.

Speaker 4 (01:21:36):
I'm not. They are not off my board. It's just
the level of excitement.

Speaker 1 (01:21:41):
And if I'm going zero RB, like and I draft
Zak Moss, I'm not pumping my fist going.

Speaker 4 (01:21:47):
I did it. I got the guy who is the
savior of my team.

Speaker 1 (01:21:50):
It's okay, I got a guy who it might work,
but three out of seventy one is that's a bad percentage.

Speaker 2 (01:21:58):
Well, in my business as a lawyer, you've built one
hell of a case there against Zach Moss being a
guy that we can really count on making that next step.
And you know the Chase Brown thing. If this continues,
if the drum beat continues, that RB forty price tag
is going to be a mirage. He's going to move
up so quickly. Then I start to worry about your

(01:22:19):
first point, which is do they cannibalize each other? And
then it makes neither player really draftable. A couple other
narratives I want to hit here, and then I just
want to get a little personal opinion thing about some
guys you like and guys you don't. Before I get
you out of here, I want to talk about Jamison Williams. Oh,
I'm sorry, you know what, I didn't hit the other
Cincinnati guy. The other Cincinnati guy. I want to talk about,
just real briefly, what do you think about this andre

(01:22:40):
Usibas conversation here? Because I mean, you know they've run
the Bengals played. I believe I my research said the
fourth most eleven personnel last year. So their third wide
receiver is important. He's going to be relevant. Do we
really believe that he's going to be the guy that's
going to soak up all those targets as the third
wide receiver? Is that gonna be a committee there?

Speaker 4 (01:23:02):
I yeah, I don't care.

Speaker 2 (01:23:05):
You don't care. That's a fine answer.

Speaker 1 (01:23:07):
I'm fine with that because it's like it's the career
of Tyler Boyd that makes me not care. Where you
can care for these I mean, if you're in a
deep league, you know, and you need to take real
lottery scratcher tickets that could turn into something. T Higgins
has been destroying my soul because he's been on my

(01:23:30):
team the last two years, as well as a lot
of fantasy football players out there. Higgins, when he's on
the field, he comes through for us most of the time,
but it's been such a hit or miss injuries, him
saying he's gonna play and then he goes out to
you it takes like two snaps and he's done for
the day, Like so much, so much pain has been

(01:23:51):
inflicted on me personally from T Higgins, and yet I
will continue to draft him at his ADP. But the
point is like it took Higgins being off the field
for Tyler Boyd to really do anything of note. Last year,
Tyler Boyd's at seventy six percent of the snaps and
yet finishes with six hundred sixty seven yards and two touchdowns.

Speaker 4 (01:24:13):
It's like, if they'll you know.

Speaker 1 (01:24:16):
If that if his target share is focused to one
other player, is that player better than Tyler Boyd?

Speaker 4 (01:24:23):
You know?

Speaker 1 (01:24:23):
Like, I don't know, he could be, and we just
haven't seen him because he's a young player who hasn't
been able to get on the field just yet. But
I'm betting against him doing anything in Dynasty. Heck yeah, man,
if he's on the way as soon as that news
came through, I went, I double checked all my Dino
waiver wires because I've seen him dropped because of the

(01:24:44):
the Burton Draft selection. So that's where I'm paying attention.
But in redraft, I'm I'm probably not. Maybe I'll fight
for him on the waivers should an injury happen.

Speaker 2 (01:24:55):
Yeah, okay, fair point, all right, So let's move on
to the guy. I think that's a little more exciting.
We're talking about Detroit because they've got to you know,
we know now what a powerful offense that is. They're
building such a rich group of pass catchers over there.
Can Jamison Williams fight his way through the guys ahead

(01:25:16):
of him to make a difference this year? I mean,
we keep hearing the same thing. He's turning heads, he's
ready to make the step, He's all those platitudes we
hear this time of year, Right, are we buying it
on Jamison Williams this time around?

Speaker 1 (01:25:30):
I am leaving a small margin, like the doors just
at least cracked for Jamison Williams because the athleticism is there.
It's it's hard to gauge him because for the most part,
you can say, hey, I don't care if you're a
top ten draft pick. If you're a top ten draft
pick that has done literally nothing in your first two years,

(01:25:53):
that is a huge marker of just cut your losses.

Speaker 4 (01:25:58):
It's not going to work.

Speaker 1 (01:26:00):
His ride is a little different, of course, because the
first year is the acl the second year is the gambling.
But then he's when he's played. He's been on the
field a good amount and still not out there earning targets.
Let's say that he has improved. Okay, now we're in
the offense. Where is he Because amen Ra is a

(01:26:22):
true alpha wide receiver who's going to command targets.

Speaker 4 (01:26:25):
Just got paid like he's the dude.

Speaker 1 (01:26:28):
Jamier Gibbs is already a smashing success at the running
back position. He is going to earn so many targets
because that is his true superpower. Oh, Sam laporta smash
hit right on a tight end, who is going to
be utilized in the red zone and he's going to
demand a target share. It's like Jamison that puts him forth.

(01:26:51):
Now there's going to be if he's actually good, he'll
have games here and there. But it's just a a
consistent wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (01:27:00):
Two.

Speaker 1 (01:27:01):
I don't know that there is that much to go around,
despite Jared Goff, the resurgence of him and actually being
a good quarterback when he has protection from an offensive line,
so that his adp On Jamison Williams, I'm fine with it,
Like he is a true upside sleeper. Where you're trying
to paint the path for these guys, it's so narrow,

(01:27:26):
So at least go.

Speaker 4 (01:27:27):
With guys where you go.

Speaker 1 (01:27:28):
If it hits, it's gonna be great, not guys of
like Oh, I think they're gonna be number three in
target share for this team, No chase some talent. Jamison
Williams at least has that. But my act, my true
personal belief is it's not going to work. But I
think part of being a good fantasy football analyst is

(01:27:51):
understanding that I get things wrong a lot, so I
will I'm willing to be wrong on Jamison Williams.

Speaker 2 (01:27:58):
Well, you know, I say this with ampletely serious face,
that that may be a little peek into why you
guys are successful, because I get frustrated hearing draft this guy.
He's going to smash like these absolutes, they just don't
help us, and they don't help us when we're getting
into a draft room, and I think that Williams is
a perfect example. Another guy that I've been talking about

(01:28:19):
is Christian Watson. When you're talking about guys being drafted
in the you know, wide receiver forty nine or wide
receiver fifty three or whatever the case may be, you're
looking for that smash upside, and there really isn't a
lot of benefit to drafting a guy who might get
a thirteen percent target shar as the wide receiver three.
I'd rather be in on a guy like Williams, And
you know you're gonna know, I think fairly quickly on

(01:28:41):
whenever he's going to be able to fight his way through,
and then that's an easy cut if it's not working. Okay,
one more, one more, one more question for you, but
and then I'm gonna let you give out your favorite
picks here.

Speaker 4 (01:28:53):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (01:28:54):
I'm concerned about the New York Giants. I mean, who
isn't with the what we've seen in the past couple
of years. But all I can see now right when
I log into Twitter these days is Daniel Jones making
a bad pass. And I like Malik Neighbors the player,
but can he save this offense or is Daniel Jones,

(01:29:15):
he just is what he is at this point. Do
we think he can improve enough to make this offense
relevant for fantasy purposes? What do you think about the
narrative coming out right now that Jones just can't get
it going.

Speaker 1 (01:29:26):
I'm gonna give Jones a little bit of leeway here
as he is recovering, like his knee is still getting
back into shape. Daniel Jones is, unfortunately for him, the
like he was set up to fail in terms of
public criticism. He got super overdrafted in the eyes of

(01:29:51):
the public by the New York Giants. He goes to
New York, he goes to a media market where your
margin for error is zero percent. You cannot fail or
you're gonna get destroyed. And he just so it's real.
It's been very easy to dunk on Daniel Jones.

Speaker 4 (01:30:09):
It's kind of fun. It's kind of fun to dunk
on Daniel Jones, like, like maybe he's a good guy.
I don't know, but we're just talking.

Speaker 1 (01:30:15):
We play fantasy football, and actually, Daniel Jones, I guess
he did come through for us a couple of years
ago with what the seven hundred rushing yards whatever it was,
So I think that that is part of the issue
for Daniel Jones is his bad throats are gonna be
so consumed by us on Twitter. Life of my priors

(01:30:36):
for or confirmed Daniel Jones stinks. So I'm gonna give
him a little bit of grace here and let him recover.
But the Molik Neighbors ADP has won has been one
of my biggest sticking points of I don't get it.
He's being drafted as the wide receiver twenty. I wish

(01:30:57):
I had the number in front of me, but because
we've referenced it, believe that is the second highest ADP
for a rookie wide receiver ever because number one goes
to Marvin Harrison Junior, who's being drafted in the top twelve.
But like Neighbors is being drafted kind of similar to
where Amari Cooper was as a rookie, right and to

(01:31:19):
return value for that, And I'm with you, I love
Molik Neighbors. Over the draft season, I was on the
side of, no, it's not just Marvin Harrison Junior. If
teams want to build around Elak Neighbors.

Speaker 4 (01:31:34):
From what I have seen, that doesn't bother me. Like
if he gets drafted before Marv.

Speaker 1 (01:31:38):
I'm not going to be out tearing my shirt off,
protesting in the street of what a stupid call that is. No,
Lake Neighbors is extremely talented, just a different type of player.
How do you want to run your offense? So that's
where I am at his talent level. But to be
drafted as the wide receiver twenty, the target share that
he would require has to be so outrageous. It has

(01:32:02):
to be high twenties, maybe even low thirties for what
Daniel Jones has shown us historically of this is what
I produce throwing the ball again, chicken her egg. Has
Daniel Jones really played with a good wide receiver? That's
I think that's a fair conversation to have that you
could say, no, he hasn't been supplied with the weapons

(01:32:23):
he needs. So maybe something clicks. Maybe there's a josh
Allen Stefon Diggs thing that happens. I'm just betting against
it at wide receiver twenty. I think it is. It's
just it's way way too expensive because the fantasy football community,
I think we're trying to fast forward things of rookie
wide receivers lately have been an excellent bet in fantasy

(01:32:46):
football because they come through in the second half of
the year, they get acclimated. But we're drafting these guys
in the eighth round or later. We're not spending our
really high equity picks where there are I know there's
great players like Melik Neighbors. Right now, I'm looking at
the adp on sleeper. He's being drafted in front of

(01:33:07):
DK Metcalf devont To Smith, like these are maybe neighbors.
You could say Neighbor's ceiling is higher than Smith's. But
I know Smith's a good player. I know he's in
a good situation. Is Malik Neighbors in a good situation that?
It's just it's such a expensive bet. I'll put it
that way. It's a really expensive bet. It's not that
I can't pay off. It's just it's too rich for

(01:33:29):
me to draft a rookie in what I think is
a bad situation that high.

Speaker 2 (01:33:35):
I couldn't agree more. I have been screaming about the
neighbors thing all season. I just can't figure it out.
And I was telling myself, well, it's the best ball thing,
and that's gonna calm down when the best ball grows,
you know, finish their finish their content, you know, and
we move heavily into redraft season, but it's not calming down.

(01:33:55):
And you know, the thing that I always come back
to is for a guy to have a rookie season
where he's got set how many catches, maybe seven hundred yards,
six touchdowns. That's a really good rookie season, right, And
for that to happen with Daniel Jones, that takes a
lot in and of itself. And then look at where
seventy seven hundred and six land you as a fantasy
wide receiver. It's wildly outsized for what we're seeing right

(01:34:18):
now for his ADP. So totally agree on that take.
Let's get you out of here. This clock starts running
in my head. I've kept you forty five minutes now,
so all right, we're good. I appreciate your time. Let
me get you out of here. Give me one or
two guys on either side of the coin that you
are enjoying drafting A lot of they come up in
the queue and you say, yep, that's my guy, I'm

(01:34:40):
going to hit it again. Or on the other side,
guys that you're fading that you're just really not that
interested and you can't seem to click the button.

Speaker 1 (01:34:47):
So a couple guys that I really like this year.
I am firmly on team Nico Collins of he's been
a wide receiver that we've been able to talk about
every once in a while on the foot Baller's Podcast
of like look at this guy in Houston, Like I I'm.

Speaker 4 (01:35:05):
Pretty sure that's a good player.

Speaker 1 (01:35:07):
He just keeps having a crappy situation and should a
good situation arrive now?

Speaker 4 (01:35:14):
I loved the Stroud pick.

Speaker 1 (01:35:15):
I don't think anyone saw or projected what happened last
year to happen, and it was so it was an
immediate yoh, Nico Collins is he's turning into a blue
chip dynasty player in front of your eyes. You better
go cash in, or like you better go pick him
up while you can't because he's about to become untouchable

(01:35:35):
and while there are the two other good players on
the team. I'm firmly on the side of Nico at
his ADP, I think he can outproduce it.

Speaker 4 (01:35:43):
I think he's the number one.

Speaker 1 (01:35:44):
Like there it's a fair argument to have of like
will it be Tink Dell, Can it somehow be Stefan Diggs?

Speaker 4 (01:35:51):
For me, it's it's Nico Collins and it's not close.

Speaker 1 (01:35:55):
I think he's a top ten type of guy that
you don't have to draft as a top ten type guy.
And the other one is it's Kyler Murray and we
get we get a lot of we get. We hear
from the people that where we have a hometown bias,
but I promise that we do not like this is
we're calling out value where we see it.

Speaker 4 (01:36:14):
Kyler.

Speaker 1 (01:36:16):
They let him fully recover from the ACL tear, which
we don't see that all the time with teams, but
the Cardinals took the long term, safer approach of here's
our franchise guy. We we know we're not going anywhere
this year, so let's let him completely heal. And he
comes back and he's immediately back to averaging over thirty

(01:36:39):
rushing yards a game like that. Of course we would
of course we want that higher, but that's for your
first games back. That's pretty solid. He finishes in just
a short amount of time. He put up at QB six,
QB nine twelve four, so I mean like four games,
four games out of eight, he was over twenty points.

(01:36:59):
And he is one of the the fantasy community has
caught on for the most part, two rushing quarterbacks, but
Kyler is still being left really low. And I think
that this is an offense that the addition of Marvin
Harrison Junior is humongous of. He's gonna be a true
number one his ADP. That's a different conversation, but I'm

(01:37:22):
talking about on the football field, really helping Kyler. I
think Marvin's going to I love Trey McBride. I think
that he was not an enigma of and not just
a product of circumstance last year. I think that he
is a truly great pass catching tight end and it
lets the other guys fall into the roles that they
need to be in. Greg Dortsch is like a good

(01:37:44):
slot wide receiver. Michael Wilson is not a number one guy?
Can he be number two? Let's let's find out, right,
So Kyler's over here, He's gonna run for a bunch
of yards. Historically he has been you know, QB seven
is a rookie, QB two, QB ten the next year
in only fourteen games, like he has always produced for

(01:38:04):
fantasy football, it just feels like forever since he hasn't
because he tore his ACL halfway through two years ago.
So let's let's all remember Kyler Murray, another guy that
season to make jokes about how tall he is, but
he's come through for Fantasy football and he's one of
the guys who gives you points with his legs and

(01:38:25):
he is not being drafted where Josh Allen Jalen hurts
Anthony Richardson, like, I like Richardson, but that's I mean,
if I can get it's Richardson in the fifth or
the fourth or Kyler in the seventh. Like I'm gonna
take my value on Kyler Murray.

Speaker 4 (01:38:41):
Who was? I know, Kyler's a good QB.

Speaker 2 (01:38:45):
The Kyler Murray thing has been I've been I've been
banging on the on the table especially you know, I
just lost some stuff. And Murray's been one of the
guys from like you can get this dude for four
or five bucks in your auction.

Speaker 4 (01:38:55):
Yeah, it's wild, it's crazy.

Speaker 2 (01:38:58):
Yeah, and if I don't know what the problem there is.
And a little bit the same thing with Nico Collins.
I've been getting him in the low twenties to mid twenties. That's,
in my opinion, a wide receiver two price tag with
all kinds of wide receiver one upside there, So enjoy
both of those picks from a confirmation bias standpoint, of course.
How about a couple guys you're fading ooh.

Speaker 1 (01:39:20):
I mean Joe Mixon is pretty strong on there. I
I mean, I just faded mylik neighbors.

Speaker 4 (01:39:27):
In that put.

Speaker 1 (01:39:28):
Roma Dunza is unfortunately in that category as well.

Speaker 4 (01:39:33):
We have our big.

Speaker 1 (01:39:34):
Ice and Fire episode of the Fantasy Footballers and and
I don't know if you're out before that episode, but
then just a little previ for your for your listeners,
that Roma Dunze is gonna be my ice pick. I'm
gonna lay out a bunch of stuff for there. Let
me let me just peruse here.

Speaker 2 (01:39:50):
OF's that's a pretty good list.

Speaker 1 (01:39:54):
I mean, and it's like, so I think that's a
mere White is a fascinating conversation because he has kind
of the similar stuff as.

Speaker 4 (01:40:05):
As as Zach.

Speaker 1 (01:40:06):
Moss, where you're like, I mean, I don't know, like
the numbers of guys who have broken out with his
draft capital in the season that he would break out in.

Speaker 4 (01:40:19):
It's a it would be.

Speaker 1 (01:40:21):
An outlier, yeah, And is he an outlier? I mean
he could be Yeah, Like Kyrin Williams was absolutely outlied.
They happen like, that's why we have a word for
that happening. It's just a making a bet on history
because history tends to repeat itself and we can learn

(01:40:41):
a lot from profiles and success of these types of
situations and players. So he is, I don't know that
I'm fading him. I'm just I'm real iffy on him
right now too, especially with what the Loubye hype that's
coming out of the Raiders training camp.

Speaker 2 (01:40:59):
Yeah, oh, absolutely, which means that they're gonna have some
confidence with him as a pass catcher, which is what
we've known from White all along that they don't care
about him as a pass catcher, right, And my big
question is why didn't the Raiders care about him before
they had to use him? So that that worries me too.

Speaker 1 (01:41:16):
It's very like the whole situation is strange of how
what are they seeing in practice that they keep going, Yeah, no,
we're going to give all the work to Josh Jacobs,
who is not anywhere close to the Jacobs of two
years ago, but we're gonna.

Speaker 4 (01:41:30):
Keep doing it.

Speaker 1 (01:41:32):
Then he comes on the field has massive success, Like
what were they seeing then then all the narratives, at
least the rumors that we were hearing, are they're really
trying to keep Josh Jacobs, and I think that it
was more of a surprise that they lost him. And
now they're like, uh, I guess you're up, Zamir. You know,
I know they it's always next man up in football,

(01:41:54):
but not now when free agencies rolling around, they're going
to try and find the best player they can. So
if it feels like a consolation prize, and I hope
I'm wrong, I hope I'm wrong on that one.

Speaker 4 (01:42:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:42:08):
I mean, and here's the sixth round rookie that's gonna
save us. I mean, maybe the answer is just stay
away from the raiders here. But all right, well listen,
Mike again, you've been very generous with your time. I
got to get you out of here. Let me just
give you a chance to bookend this with anything you
want to put out there. Make sure you check out
the Ultimate Draft Kit and support the fantasy footballers like

(01:42:31):
they've supported the auction briefs by coming on. Really appreciate
all your time, anything else you want to put out
there for everybody.

Speaker 4 (01:42:37):
No man, just remember August it's here.

Speaker 1 (01:42:39):
So five podcasts a week from the Fantasy Footballers and
if you have any if you want to check anything
out the Fantasy Footballers dot com.

Speaker 4 (01:42:48):
That's our hub.

Speaker 2 (01:42:48):
Everything's there, okay, And I would my buddy Morgan's gonna
kill me if I don't give him a shout out
on the show.

Speaker 4 (01:42:54):
He's a huge fan. What's that Morgan?

Speaker 2 (01:42:57):
Thanks, man, appreciate that he will enjoy that. So yeah,
this will drop tomorrow morning. Thank you so much for
coming on. It's been a really fun conversation and it's
really nice to meet you.

Speaker 4 (01:43:07):
So yes, excellent.

Speaker 2 (01:43:08):
Likewise, yep, thanks again for all your time, and that's
going to do it for another week of discussions with Drew. Well,
that was really fun. I enjoyed talking to Mike. Like
I said, we've never met before, so that was a
treat for me. I really appreciate him taking his time

(01:43:29):
to come on the show. Look, he's a big time star.
What can I say? He is a big time star.
And the fact that he made time for the auction brief,
I can't thank him enough for that. Thank you so
much to Mike Raik from the Fantasy Footballers, So go
support them for supporting the auction brief. I don't think
I have to say that to a lot of you,
because most of you, I believe listen to the fantasy footballers.

(01:43:50):
Well that me telling you to go do it. But
if you haven't checked him out, please go do that.
They've referenced my work on the legal stuff from time
to time, and I appreciate them for that. Well, all right,
Like I said, I feel like a plane settler under
siege here. My house is going to fall apart. I'm
going to get a lightning bolt to the face if
I don't get off of the mic here. I've had
a fun time talking to you tonight. Don't forget my

(01:44:14):
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(01:44:35):
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so much for being here, for being a part of

(01:44:55):
this journey. I'm on. I absolutely love it, love all
of you, and I'm having a great time this s summer.
Next week, I'm gonna drop an episode with Brian Drake
in a King's Classic Expo preview episode. That's gonna be
a lot of fun. Brian and I always have a
great time screwing around when we get together on the mic.
I think you're gonna find that one interesting. We're gonna
have a couple of drinks, we're gonna let loose, We're

(01:45:16):
gonna go nuts on next week's episode. I think you're
gonna enjoy that a lot, So tune in next week.
Thank you so much for being a follower of mine
and all the support you give me. It means the
world to me. We got a few more episodes to
do some more work, so get ready. Auction season is here, baby.
The Auction Brief is adjourned, and I am out.

Speaker 3 (01:45:36):
The Auction Brief is a journ That'll do it for
this week's episode, See you next time. On the auction brief,

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