The Value of Rookies in Redraft; Guest Marcas Grant from the NFL Network

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome to the Auction Brief.

Speaker 2 (00:07):
There's a joy in these games.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Taking you on a journey through fantasy football, the law,
and life.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
We saw your day. It depends on how much you want.
And now you're legal analyst and auction draft expert here
to help you dominate your fantasy drafts. Your host, Drew Dadamport,
there are full hearts. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Auction Brief.

(00:39):
As the lady said, I'm your host, Drew Davenport, you're
fantasy football lawyer. Thank you so much for joining me
for another week of the Auction Brief. Last week we
got off to a roaring start. We hit the ground
running with Scott Pianowski from ya Who's Sports. That was
a really fun conversation, and I think I really enjoyed
the three lessons that I learned last year. And I
know sometimes that it's a little tedious to look back

(01:01):
and be like, hey, I want to get focused on
twenty twenty five. I get it, and we're getting there.
This week, we're going to do a little bit of that,
but we are going to start to turn our eyes
towards twenty twenty five and what we should be doing.
But I want to go over a couple more topics
from twenty twenty four that I think are going to
help you, They're going to help us going forward. It's

(01:22):
really important, I believe, to deconstruct what happened before we
can go forward successfully. So sometimes we just got to
eat our vegetables. It's not always going to be super amazing, happy,
fun time, but I do think that last week was
a fun start to the summer, and I think that
this week's topic is going to be interesting as well.

(01:44):
We have a legal update on Jordan Addison. He had
his court date on Monday the sixteenth, so I got
something to report there. We also are going to talk
a little bit about rookies and redraft, and I gotta say,
I know that you guys are probably your eyes are
probably rolling back in your head at this point, like
bro He's still on rookies in redraft. But hey, look

(02:04):
it's middle of June. This is important stuff, and I
think it's an important enough topic that we really need
to dial it in and we've got to get it right.
So I'm going to do that this week, and I
believe I'm gonna give it the treatment, and the treatment
is that it's going to be a one topic episode.
This week, we're going to talk rookies in Redraft, and
I think you're going to really enjoy the three conclusions

(02:24):
that I came to because I dug into the numbers,
and I'm going to give you the numbers for how
the rookies finished last year, my three conclusions I drew
from that, and a real simple plan going forward for
how we're going to capitalize on rookie madness in the
fantasy community. You know, I think that's going to be interesting.
And then we're gonna get Marcus Grean on here for
discussions Withdrew. Marcus has been on the show more than

(02:45):
anybody in the history the Auction Brief. He's a great
friend of the show. And I've never once texted Marcus
and asked him to come on where he said, no, no,
I don't have the time. Sorry. Marcus has been a
great supporter of the Auction Brief since day one. Can't
say enough about Marcus. And it's a fun conversation that
we're going to have here in discussions Withdrew. So that's
what we're going to do. Legal update Rookies in Redraft.

(03:06):
Marcus Grant on discussions with Drew don't forget. You can
find me on Twitter at Drew Davenport FF. You can
find me on TikTok on as the Fantasy Football Lawyer,
as well as my Patreon network, The Fantasy Football Lawyer.
Get over there. The content is I promised coming. We
had a weird outage last week where I tried to
record a little hit for the Patreon folks and we

(03:29):
couldn't get on stream yard. So that all appears to
be resolved and we're going to get back on the
horse there and the Patreon network. So just a couple
bucks a month to get my insights on auction specifically,
but also the legal stuff as well, in detail, more
than you can find just about anywhere except for maybe
the auction brief. So in an effort to keep things

(03:50):
moving along, let's get started. I know it's a little
bit early. I haven't rambled for forty five minutes about nonsense,
but I want to get into this because I'm really
excited about today's topic. Spent a lot of time looking
over the fantasy finishes for all the rookies last year,
and I've got all the numbers that you were going
to find really interesting because there's some things that I
found in here that I was very surprised about. I've

(04:13):
split it up into the first month of the season,
the first eight weeks of the season, and then the
second half of the season to see how the rookies
performed and how well they were helping us if we
had them on our rosters at various points in the year.
I think you're really going to enjoy that, and the
conclusions are not necessarily surprising, but I think you're going

(04:34):
to find that I've softened my stance a little bit.
It's no longer f them rookies. It's f most of
them rookies. No. But look, when I talk about redraft stuff,
I wanted to be very clear here, and I know
some people are listening and probably wondering, like what exactly
that word means. Redraft just means. We're not talking dynasty,

(04:55):
we're not talking best ball. We're talking just straight up,
like you show up at your home league, you draft
a team, you have them for a year, and then
you draft a whole new team next year. That's what
redraft means. It's your typical, straightforward fantasy league, and that's
what I'm going to talk about with rookies this week.
We're not talking about dynasty, so get that stuff out
of your head. We are heading into redraft season and

(05:15):
that's what we do here on the auction brief, So
let's get into that. But first I think we need
to talk a little bit about Jordan Aison. This is
a quick legal update, but it is an extremely important
one because the timeline is advancing. Let's do a quick
legal update.

Speaker 3 (05:29):
Now it's time for your legal update.

Speaker 2 (05:33):
Okay, your Fantasy Football legal update, your f f legal
update if you will. You can find that hashtag anywhere
on TikTok or Twitter to find all my takes on
the legal situations happening around the league. There is no
update on Rice right now, which again means that we're
advancing ever closer to there'd be no indictment for us
to worry about whatsoever for the whole season this year,

(05:53):
which is that's my stance. But there is an update
in Jordan Aison because, as I told you last week,
he had a court date on Monday, June sixteenth, and
that was what's called a jury trial setting date. And
like I said, I believe that Kevin Seffert from ESPN
was reporting that was the jury trial date, and I
told you, nope, hold on a second, that's the date
when they're going to pick the date. And that's exactly

(06:16):
what they've done. They've got a July fifteenth jury trial
date on the books. Now, that doesn't mean it's absolutely
set in stone that it's going to go forward on
July fifteenth, but I do believe that that is a
pretty strong date. That's not one of these civil dates
that we see, like in the Rashie Rice case or
something that's going to get pushed out fifteen more times.

(06:38):
Criminal jury trial dates are generally pretty straightforward. Now, sometimes
there can be continuances for whatever reason by the state
or the defense for something on happening, and that could happen, okay,
But for right now, we're looking at July fifteenth, and
I don't believe that's a coincidence because I think Addison's
team probably wants this over before he gets to training camp.

(06:59):
So that July fifth teenth date I believe fits both
the court's motives because they need a case to move along.
This case is getting to be almost a year old,
and I believe it supports Addison's interest to get the
case over with before the season begins. So if you
follow me on TikTok and you listen to me last week,
you'll know that my timeline was that this was going

(07:20):
to be done before the season, and it looks like
that's exactly what's happening now. I know there's some people
speculating today like, oh, this is going to a jury trial.
He's in trouble. I don't necessarily know that that's what
that means. All right, we don't know what's going on
behind the scenes. But what I can tell you is
if they don't have a deal yet, my premonition about
this case was that this is going to be a

(07:41):
hard case to deal for both sides because Addison needs
to take something that's not impaired. He needs to take
a charge that doesn't involve impairment. Okay, and the prosecutor,
the district attorney, whatever they're call in LA, they have
a tough time dealing away a case of a guy
who's passed out on the roadway. It seems to be
a pretty simple case for the state, but I bet

(08:02):
you there's a lot of stuff that goes into the field.
Sobriety tests, how he smelled, how he looked, how he acted,
what's on those videos. We don't know any of that stuff,
so just keep that in mind. We don't know a
lot of the evidence. But it's important that this is
now set for a jury trial date because that's gonna
make these parties come together and have to negotiate. I

(08:23):
still believe that there is a very good chance this
case gets settled. It's not very often that you actually
go to a jury trial on an OVII it's excuse me,
operating a vehicle under the influence DUI. It's not very
common that you go to a jury trial on this
type of a case. So I'm not saying it's not
gonna happen, because it absolutely still could. But I err

(08:46):
on the side of if I had to put a
percentage on it, I'd say it's probably sixty five to
seventy percent that this case gets dealt before that jury
trial date and he ends up taking a plea to something. Again,
I think we're still talking in that one to three range.
But I think if he takes some sort of deal
that he likes, he's going to get a couple of games,
and that's going to be it. Maybe the league says, hey,
this is still alcohol related, We're still going to suspend

(09:08):
you three, put you in the program to get counseling,
blah blah blah. But I still believe that we're talking
about a relatively short suspension of less than four games,
and I still think it's going to get dealt. So
I have nothing to other than my gut instinct from
doing this job for almost twenty five years, and I
think that's where something. But that's where we are because
we are actually moving forward, folks. That Addison case, I

(09:32):
believe is going to be behind us in the next
couple of weeks, maybe even you know, before that jury
trout date. We're going to get some sort of plea.
But we shall see. All right. That is this week's
update on Jordan Addison, and let's move on to some
discussion on rookies in Redraft. So I want to start

(09:58):
this topic by telling a quick story that I've told
on the show before, but it's been a couple of
years since I told the story. I'm hoping that most
of you will still get something out of it by
hearing it again. But it's a short one. It's from
a TV show, but I haven't found a better example
of this yet, So I continue to use it, not
only on this show, but just I think about it

(10:19):
all the time. It's something that sort of like haunts
me from time to time where I always have to think, like,
am I doing things the most efficient possible way in
everything I do? And I know that I'm not, So
it's always kind of in the back of my mind.
Is that the right way to do this, is that
the right way to get here, is that the right
way to do that, is that the right way to

(10:39):
say things to my kids or to get them to
do this or that. It's always kind of there on
the back of my mind. And it's a story from
the show West Wing. There is a political operative on
the show by the name of Bruno Gianelli, and Bruno's
hired to get people elected and he doesn't really care
which side he's working for. He just knows the electorate
well and he knows that he's got to get votes.

(11:00):
And he tells a story about how sometimes candidates have
a problem letting him do his thing and running the
efficient campaign that he should be doing. Sometimes they get
in the way. And I think that we get in
the way of ourselves sometimes. And this is all going
to relate back to the topic today. So again I
talked about this last week, but I want to say
it again. These stories are not for you to fast

(11:20):
forward and say, ah, this is crap. Get to the fantasy.
This is the fantasy, folks. This is how you get
better at fantasy. This story is incredibly important because, just
like in poker, in fantasy football, people have leaks in
their game. What does that mean. It means that where
you're leaking expected value, where you're leaking profit, where you're

(11:41):
losing to your competitors who are doing things better and
more efficiently than you. So the way to get better
at fantasy football is to plug those leaks. All right,
I'm going to get back to the story in just
one second. But a couple of years ago, I remember
that I was really fighting myself on my starting lineups.
And this was because I'm a big problem because I

(12:02):
was drafting really deep teams. And then I was spending
hours and hours looking at matchups and trying to play
matchups and putting guys in and out of my lineup.
And I finally figured out to two simple things that
could plug that leak. And it was a massive leak.
But it wasn't easy to get over because I had
the curse of knowledge of having too much knowledge at
my fingertips. I could look up every possible cornerback wide

(12:23):
receiver matchup, and I could look up every possible slot
percentage and how many targets they get, and how efficient
they are, what's their quarterback rating when they're getting that target.
I could look up all that crap. It was paralysis
by analysis, all right. And so I plugged that leak
by doing a couple of things. I started drafting teams
that were a little bit shallower, pushing money towards the

(12:43):
top of my roster. And then I started just plugging
in the guys that I know are my guys every week.
And sometimes that means you're going to miss out on
a guy on your bench that goes off. But that's
all right, because long term positive expected value was figuring
out not to be playing lineup bingo. So I had
to fix that leak in my game. It was a
pretty big one. Everyone needs to be honest with themselves

(13:06):
about what leaks they have in their game, and I'm
here to tell you that I believe one of the
biggest leaks in everyone's game. The fantasy community at large
you meet everybody is how they handle rookies and redraft.
I believe it is a huge leak in people's games.
Back to the story, Bruno tells the story about how

(13:28):
he is on a crew manning a yacht in a race. Now,
if you're a voter, if you're somebody who knows this
stuff really well, I apologize for how I'm going to
butcher the terminology here. I know zero things about voting. Okay,
let me just say the terms the best I think
I can and tell the story the best I can.
But Bruno tells the story about being on this crew

(13:51):
and he's sort of on the bottom of the crew
doing a lot of the dirty work. And they're in
a race in which they have a big piece of
kelp that is stuck on their hole. So they're trying
to go through the water at the most efficient way possible,
and you want that hole to cut through the water
as efficiently as it can with no obstructions, and they

(14:11):
got this big piece of kelp on the hole. He's
assigned to go over and lean over the side of
the boat with this big hook and knock the kelp
off the hole so they can run at the most
efficient maximum possible pace. All right, So what does he do?
He runs over and he jams the hook into the
water to get the kelp off, and everyone freaks out, like,

(14:33):
what are you doing? What are you doing? You don't
just jam the hook into the water. Now, what you
do is you stick the hook in the water at
the head of the hole ahead of the piece of kelp,
and then you let the hook run down the hall
and knock the kelp off as it runs down the hall.
Then you pull the hook back up. That's the most
efficient way to get the kelp off the hole, because

(14:56):
the minute you jam that hook into the water trying
to get the kelp off the hole, slowing them down
even more than the kelp is might as well just
leave the kelp on there, all right. So where are
we going with this story. We all have a huge
league in our game, and it's rookies in redraft, and
I believe that the way that we try to handle
it sometimes is kind of clumsy. I think that we

(15:18):
go out there and we say, okay, we're just gonna
spray and we're gonna get a bunch of rookies, and
one of these guys is going to turn into pooka
and akua. One of these guys is going to be
Brian Thomas. But really what that amounts to is we're
going around with rookies in our drafts and we're jamming
that hook in the water. We have a small problem
with rookies where we've got the kelp on the whole

(15:40):
that's slowing us down a little bit if we're not
addressing this problem. But the minute we try to start
brute force breaking the matrix of how we handle rookies
in redraft by just throwing a bunch of rookies in there,
or by by trying to be perfect, like you know,
this fourth round rookie is going to do it. This
sixth around, rookie is our next puka akua instead of

(16:04):
kelp on the whole. Now we got a big hook
in the water that's dragging us down. Now we've got
this hook jammed in the water and our boat is
slowing down and it is. It may be imperceptible to us,
but over thousands and thousands of decisions that we make
in our drafts, it will drag us down and it

(16:24):
will make us slower. We're not operating at the most
efficient way we can if we don't pay attention to
the finer points of what's going on with rookies and
redraft leagues. So that's why I'm giving it the treatment today.
You can't just jam the hook in the water and
brute force break the code. That's not going to happen.
We have to fix this leak, but we can do

(16:46):
it in a more artful fashion. So what I want
to do is go position by position and tell you
the results of what I found. When to do a
short little summation at the end of each position by
telling you sort of my quick one liner conclusion. But
then at the end, after I go through all four
positions quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. At

(17:07):
the end, I've got three major conclusions that I drew
from looking at these numbers. I think you're really going
to enjoy those three conclusions. All right, let's start at
the quarterback positions. I looked at everybody that we would
consider a starter would be in the top twelve. Okay,
because we're going to do typical twelve team leagues. At
quarterback and tight end, your starters are your top twelve.

(17:31):
Your rosterable players are basically top twenty four. But that
at running back, your starters are going to be top
twenty four, and at wide receiver theyre top thirty six. Okay,
assuming we're going to start two running backs three wide receivers.
But I went and looked at the most impactful rookies
and what I did was I broke it down each
part of the year. I wanted to say, first of all,

(17:52):
how do they perform in the first month of the season.
We know that's going to be kind of a train
wreck for the most part, But I wanted to talk
about how do they perform in the first month of
the season, how did they perform in the first half
of the season, how do they perform in the second
half of the season, and what was their overall finish.
So we've got an overall finish and we've also got

(18:12):
a points per game finish. Now, I treated the weeks
one to four, one to eight. In weeks nine to seventeen,
I used fantasy points per game to try to filter
out some of the injury luck and that kind of thing.
So I used points per game on that. I'm going
to give you the overall finish and then also the
points per game finish for the whole season. But for
weeks one to four, one to eight, and nine to seventeen,

(18:34):
I used points per game. At the quarterback position, we
have an obvious one, Jaden Daniels. He finished overall quarterback five,
bow Knicks finished overall quarterback ten. That means we had
two rookies that were fantasy level starters. All right now,
I'm going to talk about this a little bit. My conclusion,
But bow Knicks quarterback ten. Is that really exciting? No?

(18:56):
But if you drafted a dud at quarterback and you
picked up nixt he certainly was hell. But Daniels, the
obvious superstar last year, finished as a QB five in
points per game. Daniels finished as a QB five Nicks ten.
They were the same. Caleb Williams finished QB eighteen and
Drake May finished QB twenty one in points per game. Now,

(19:18):
and I also want to say, this is six point
passing touchdowns. Okay, So what we had was we had
two guys in the top ten, and then we had
four guys overall in the top twenty four in super
flex formats. Of course, Kayleb Williams and Drake May were
helpful in regular formats. One QB which is typically what
we're talking about. We only had two guys. We had

(19:40):
Daniels at five and Nicks at ten. Now, in the
first month of the season, Daniels was again the QB five.
There were no other quarterbacks in the top twenty four
in the first month of the season, all right, that
you'd tell you something, right, There no quarterbacks in the
top twenty four other than jayde and Daniels over the
first month of the season. Over the first half of

(20:01):
the season, Daniels was actually only QB eight, Nicks was
QB fifteen, and Caleb Williams was QB twenty. So again,
only one guy would be a starter over the first
half of the season. That was Daniels. He was QB eight.
Over the second half of the season, Daniels again really shined.
He was QB five. Nicks was QB eleven over the

(20:22):
second half of the season, not ten. So it's something
to think about because we always talk about backloaded production.
Knicks was actually better season long than he was in
the second half of the year. And then Caleb Williams
was QB fourteen and Drake May was QB seventeen. So
again we've only got two quarterbacks that were considered to
be starters and only one guy was a high end starter. Now,

(20:42):
I threw a lot of numbers out to you there,
but I think we can boil this down to one
pretty simple sentence. How often do we see a quarterback
come in and finish in the top five at the position?
Not very often it does happen. And we're going to
talk about outliers in my conclusion, because I don't want
you to sit here and listen to this whole thing
and be like, well, that's what's important. I could have

(21:04):
got Jayden Daniels in the tenth, thir eleventh round and
that's how you win your league. Yes, you're right, And
Daniels was one of those guys that we talked about
last summer that had an X factor to him that
we weren't really sure if maybe Daniels later was just
Kyler Murray, you know, five rounds later it turned out
that he was way better. Point being, I think the
one line conclusion can be pretty simple. How often does

(21:27):
this really happen that we get elite production from a
rookie quarterback? So who cares? Right? I mean, who cares?
Go back in your head and name all of the
quarterbacks that you have taken a shot on, versus the
ones who produced a top five fantasy season like Jayden Daniels.
He appears to be a really special player that was

(21:48):
in a special situation, and you're gonna hear me say
that several times. But I think it boils down to
how often does this happen? So big shrug, like, who cares?
All the shots you're going to take on those guys
you're gonna miss so often that the opportunity cost of
just going out and drafting a reliable veteran it doesn't

(22:10):
make any sense. So I'm not telling you not to
draft Jade Daniels. I think it's a fine choice. If
you say, hey, I'm waiting on quarterback, I'm gonna go
try to go for a special guy like Daniels and
then doubletap, you know, some other guy like Justin Herbert later.
That's a fine strategy. I'm fine with that. But if
you want to talk about the overall what happened with quarterbacks,

(22:30):
how many people who took a shot on Kayleb Williams
in the draft. I know there's a lot of you
listening who did and sat on him all year thinking
he's gonna get better. He's gonna get better. He's gonna
get better. He didn't. He wasn't a starter. Drake May
he came in, everyone thought, oh, he's so good, he's
looking at this rushing production, look at this, and that
he won a starter, went even close to being a starter.

(22:52):
So the images that we have about these guys, oh,
he's about to take a step, he's about to take
a Nope. No, for fantasy products, you've got to be
ruthless about it. And those shots did not pay off.
The only one that did that is Daniels. And you
can look back over the years over the number of
times we've talked ourselves into a guy being a top
five guy who didn't come close. Again, I'm going to

(23:15):
talk about the outliers. Stay with me, don't get upset like, well,
we need to draft those guys. Yes we do, and
that's going to be one of my conclusions. Let's move
on to the running back spot. I think we knew
this going into last year, but the running backs were
a pretty putrid group. I think that we have a
different situation in twenty twenty five. So I don't want
you to write off running backs by and large. I

(23:36):
believe that they can have some excellent production, especially over
the second half of the season, guys like Amari and Hampton,
Treveon Henderson, stuff like, I'm still interested in those guys.
But listen to how bad this was last year. Overall,
Bucky Irving finished as RB fifteen. He didn't even finish
as an RB one last year. Tyrone Tracy finished as

(23:58):
RB twenty eight. Nobody else finished in the top thirty six. Nobody,
not one rookie. Remember how often people were talking about
Blake Koram last year, draft of Ray Davis, draft Blake Koram.
These guys are coming in and they're ready to no. No,
they're not No, They're not okay. Don't listen to the

(24:19):
hot take guys. Like I said last week, it's not
enough to just have a reason and go with it.
You have to have a good reason. And everybody that
told you that Blake korm was gonna come in and
steal the work from Kyron Williams doesn't know. Sean McVay.
And one of the first things I said last summer
was draft Sakuon Barkley and draft Kyron Williams. Last year,

(24:39):
two guys finished in the top thirty six. Only one
guy was a starter in a start two running back league,
and that was Bucky Irving RB fifteen In points per game,
Bucky was only twentieth. He finished overall fifteenth, but he
was twentieth in points per game. Tyrone Tracy was thirty second.
Nobody else was in the top thirty six. There was
one guy who was a low end RB two at

(25:01):
running back. Think of all the draft picks people wasted
on running backs, taking a shot on random dudes like
Kamani of it All, Blake Korum, Ray Davis Audrick estimate,
all these guys that people wasted draft capital lot when
you could have been taking a solid producer at the
position to help you in fantasy. You're taking these wild
ass picks on Audric estimate. Now, I'm not getting mad

(25:23):
at you, guys. I had plenty of those wild ass
picks last year at rookie running back. Okay, so I'm
not here to like like. I don't want this to
sound like I'm lecturing or coming off preaching to you.
I want you to see how stark the numbers are
in weeks one to four, the first month of the season,
zero guys, zero running backs, were in the top thirty

(25:44):
six in the first two months of the season weeks
one through eight, So the first half of the year,
Bucky Irving running back twenty nine. The end, there was
not a single running back who was considered a fantasy
starter and a typical twelve team league over the first
half of last year, Not one, folks, not one. In
the second half of the season, we had the Bucky revival.

(26:07):
He started to take over the job for Mishad White.
He finished as the RB eleven over the second half
of the season. That was a big finish. Tyrone Tracy
finished as RB twenty five in points perag game over
the second half of the season. But again, if you
got it right with Tyrone Tracy, what did you get?
You get a low end RB two, high end flex

(26:27):
or RB three. Is that a big hit? Is that
something that you want to throw out all of these
all of this draft capitol on somebody in order to
hit an RB twenty five. Bucky was awesome over the
second half of the year. He was an RB one,
He was a low end RB one, but inn RB one,
that's pretty solid. He was number eleven, that's great. But
again we're focusing on the hits, and people tend to

(26:50):
get into the summer start talking about these hits. I
told you Bucky Irving. Okay, but let me ask you something.
Last summer, when people were all hyped up about Rooi running,
how many people were telling you to draft Bucky Irving.
I mean we heard it here and there. Certainly some
people said it. Of course, just by sheer numbers, somebody's
gonna say Bucky Irving. But was he the hot name?

(27:11):
Be honest with yourself. Was Bucky Irving the hot name
last summer at running back? Let's be honest with ourselves. No, No,
he wasn't. And congratulations for the few of you that
are listening to you said, oh I had Bucky Irving everywhere. Cool,
But the point is you're in the strong minority. I
don't know if that's a thing. It sounds like an oxymoron,

(27:33):
but there are not many people who had Bucky Irving
on their teams coming out of the drafts all right,
And it took him until week nine to get going.
In the first eight weeks of the season, he wasn't
even a starter in two RB leagues. Okay, so let's
not fool ourselves. So what's the one sentence conclusion. I
just want to say that right there, The one sentence
conclusion is, was Bucky the big name last summer? Was

(27:57):
Bucky the big name? No? And you know we're going
to talk about Ashton Genty all summer long, but I
think it's kind of given that he's almost not really
a rookie. Although I want to comment on that a
little bit at the end here about what it takes
to be a pro. But I want to kind of
throw Ashton Genty out. He's like a he He's the

(28:17):
top of the heap, and that's part of the conclusion
that we're going to draw that those are the guys
we should be after. But at ourb at running back
last year, folks, it was it was appalling how bad
it was. Now I think it's going to be much
better this year. And I don't want to draw conclusions
from small sample sizes, because there's plenty of years where
running backs have big impact and I want you to

(28:37):
continue to chase that impact. Having said that, don't forget
who were the big names last summer, And the big
names were none of them were Bucky Irving. All right, now,
let's move on to wide receiver. This is a really
important one. We had quite a few strong rookie wide
receiver performances, and right out of the gate, I'm going

(28:58):
to acknowledge that this is where I'm sawing oftening my
stance a little bit. I do believe that wide receivers
are coming into the league more ready to play than ever.
We're seeing this go all the way down to eighth graders. Okay,
they're coming into high school ready to throw the ball.
They're coming into college ready to run spread offenses and
throw for five thousand yards. These guys, they're just getting

(29:20):
better younger. So we have to acknowledge that, and I
am acknowledging that. But let me tell you the results
here and then tell you what my conclusion is from that. Overall,
at the end of the year, Brian Thomas was wide
receiver four, Holy Cow, wide receiver four. What an unbelievable year.
Malite Neighbors was wide receiver six. McConkie Lad McConkie was

(29:43):
wide receiver twelve, Xavier Worthy was wide receiver thirty one,
and Marvin Harrison was wide receiver thirty four. So we
had five wide receivers finish in the top thirty six.
So those would be considered starters if you were in
start three wide receiver league typical twelve team league. In

(30:03):
points per game, Neighbors was the top finisher at wide
receiver seven, Brian Thomas was wide receiver thirteen in points
per game, McConkie was twenty second, and then Xavier Worthy
and Marvin Harrison fell out of starter territory down to
forty second and forty third at points per game. So
I know the cumulative numbers look good for the wide receivers,

(30:26):
but really we had one guy that was a wide
receiver one, and two guys that fell into the wide
receiver two category, and then nobody else. Okay, so we
really had three guys that were starters in three wide
receiver leagues. So over the first month of the season
weeks one to four, Malik Neighbors was a wide receiver
two in points per game, Marvin Harrison was wide receiver sixteen,

(30:50):
Brian Thomas was wide receiver twenty, and then nobody else
was in starter territory. Worthy was thirty seventh and McConkie
was forty second. So over the first month of the season,
we just Neighbors, Harrison, and Thomas. Over the first half
of the season weeks one to eight in points per game,
Neighbors slipped to wide receiver six, Thomas to wide receiver fourteenth,

(31:11):
McConkie jumped up to wide receiver twenty seven, and Marvin
Harrison was at wide receiver thirty three. So we did
end up over the first half of the season having
five guys that were starter worthy, two of them were
wide receiver threes. But we did have I'm sorry, that's
four guys that were starter worthy, two of them wide

(31:32):
receiver threes, won a wide receiver two and one a
wide receiver one. Over the second half of the season,
this is where it gets really interesting. I think you'd
be surprised. Over the second half of the season, the
highest points per game of any rookie was Brian Thomas
at wide receiver twelve. Malik Neighbors was at wide receiver thirteen.
He slowed down a little bit, McConkie jumped up to

(31:53):
wide receiver fifteen. Jalen McMillan was wide receiver twenty five
over the second half of the year, he jumped sitting
in the conversation, and Xavier Worthy was wide receiver thirty four.
So we had Thomas twelve Neighbors thirteen, Mconkie fifteen. So
we had three guys over the second half of the
season that were top fifteen wide receivers. That's pretty strong.

(32:16):
And then McMillan, I don't know, that's pretty weird. It
feels like an outlier. And I'm going to talk to
some people about McMillan this summer. I don't want to
spend a lot of time on him right now. But
then Worthy at thirty four and Harrison at forty seven.
So again, what I want to tell you is, and
this is going to be important to the conclusion of
the entire thing, we talked about the cake versus the

(32:37):
frosting last summer, and I'm going to say it again.
The quick analogy is this, my kids don't really like cake,
all right, they're ten and eight. They like sweets, but
they don't really like cake. They like frosting, they don't
like cake. So I've talked about Rookie Redraft for three
years now with that analogy that we want to chase
the frosting. We love the frosting, but we don't always

(33:00):
want to go after the cake. And a lot of
times guys like Xavier Worthy are the cake. It sounds
great and the kids are like, ooh, it's dessert. But
then they look down they're like, that's cake, and it's like, Ooh,
I got a rookie and he's startable. That's Xavier worthy.
You know, Oh I got this rookie Marvin Harrison. Eh,
he was wide receiver forty seven over the second half

(33:21):
of last year in points per game forty seven. He
almost wasn't even flexworthy over the second half of last year.
But I bet you're running him out there still, right.
So my point being with wide receivers, I think we
have to chase a couple of different things with wide
receivers and be done. My one sentence conclusion on wide
receivers is going to be real simple. They're ready earlier

(33:43):
than they've ever been, but we're still only chasing the frosting,
not the cake. There are too many guys out there
pumping you up on fifth round rookies, even fourth round rookies.
They hit rate, folks, is gross from third round rookies on.
It is gross. Third round on rookie wide receivers have

(34:04):
a horrendous hit rate. And we're not just talking about
hit rate for redraft. We're talking about hit rate ever
in their whole career as an NFL wide receiver. And
now you're trying to tell me that you're going to
find lightning in a bottle on this incredibly low hit
rate and third round wide receiver, or later you're going
to find the lightning in a bottle to find the
puka and akua. It's incredibly difficult. So chase the frosting.

(34:28):
Let's forget about the cake. Xavier Worthy was the cake
last year, and if Rashie Rice hadn't got hurt, I
don't think we'd be talking about Worthy at all. So
look the wide receivers. I do believe there is profit here,
I really do, and I think that it's important to
be paying attention to the top guys, and we're going
to talk about that here in a minute. It's got

(34:48):
to be the frosting, not the cake. Let's finish with
the tight ends because I want to get to you.
I want to get my final conclusions here, because I
think you're going to enjoy the final three conclusions that
I drew from this and my plan going forward, which
is as simple as it could possibly be at tight end,
the overall tight end one at the end of the
year was Brock Bowers. That's insane, incredible year. Nobody else

(35:10):
was in the top twenty four in points per game.
Bowers was second again, nobody else in the top twenty four,
so we had it was really the Bowers show. Okay,
in weeks one to four, brock Bowers was the tight
end three in points per game. Believe it or not,
Eric All snuck in the top twenty four, but he
was averaging five points per game, so you know, just

(35:32):
complete garbage, all right, So Bowers tight end three. Over
the first month of the season, Bowers was tight end two.
Nobody else was in the top twenty four. Over the
second half of the season, brock Bowers was again the
tight end two and fantasy points per game. THEO Johnson
snuck in there at tight end thirteen over the second
half of the year. Let's take a moment to talk

(35:52):
about THEO Johnson because the guy has the athletic profile
and was starting to earn targets at the end of
last year before he got hurt. There are worst picks
than THEO Johnson as your tight end too when you're
leaving a draft this summer. But back to the point,
we had exactly one guy in the top twenty four

(36:13):
for almost the entire season until Theo Johnson got in
there at tight end thirteen. I'm gonna say it again,
just like I did at quarterback, if we're not looking
at some sort of generational talent, some sort of special talent,
my conclusion is the same at tight end as it
is at quarterback. Who cares skip it? Skip it? Stop

(36:36):
trying to nail that one guy that's gonna have that
massive year when you're doing it at the exclusion of
other players who could be producers for you. I'm not
saying that we shouldn't have chased brock Bowers last year,
because that's how you win leagues, and we're gonna get
to that in just a second. But if you just
completely took tight ends off the board that are rookies,

(36:57):
you would be profitable long term playing fantasy football. And
if you just went after those generational talents. I know
it didn't work out for Kyle Pitts, but we got
to go after a guy like that. He had the
profile that we got to go after him. We had
to go after brock Bowers right now. Sam Laporta, he
he had a weird year last year. I don't necessarily
think that we can draw any conclusions from Sam Laporta's year,

(37:18):
but I think we can from brock Bowers. He was
considered to be a really special player. We need to
chase special players. Refer back to point number three less
than number three from last week. Elite players do elite things.
We knew brock Bauers was an elite player. We just
needed to take him on faith and have faith that
he would punch through that horrendous situation in Las Vegas.

(37:41):
I had zero brock Bowers last year. I hate it.
I hate that I just didn't think about it. Okay,
And if you believe Colston Lovelin is one of those players,
go for it. If you believe Mason Taylor is one
of those players, Tyler Warren's one of those players, go
for it. But I'm here to tell you that the
record of tight ends producing as rookie is pathetic. And

(38:01):
I think you can cross apply the idea that, yes,
they're more ready than they ever were coming into the league,
and I think you can use that as justification to
go after a warrant or a loved one. That's okay,
that's okay. I'm not telling you not to do that.
I'm telling you that when you look at the numbers,
they're pretty stark. And I want to say, as we
get to the end here, now we've looked at all

(38:23):
four positions, quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, all
four positions. Weren't you pretty surprised at what you heard?
Because I was. I overestimated the impact of some of
these rookies later in the year. In fact, I thought
the wide receivers were much more impactful down the stretch
than they were. So when you really go back and
look at the numbers, it isn't as easy of a

(38:46):
conversation as people want it to be because they're going
to say, well, well, I want to league that with Puka.
I get it. I totally get it, because so did I.
And it's intoxicating. It's fun to go draft those guys.
So I'm not here to tell you don't do it.
I'm here to tell you put the governor on and
here's how we're going to do it. I have three
conclusions from what we saw because at quarterback, we had

(39:11):
two guys that were considered starters, although one guy was
at the bottom of startered territory. One running back, three
wide receivers and one tight end. That means out of
all the rookies last year that people talked about all
summer long and all the rookies people were drafting, seven
guys finished as starters. Seven guys. All right, So let's

(39:33):
take that into our conclusions. What does this mean? Number one,
we're not just drafting rookies. We're also experiencing what we
call opportunity costs. It's the economic concept that's pretty simple.
Opportunity cost means when you do one thing, you necessarily
lose the ability to do the other. If I want

(39:54):
to sleep, I lose the ability to work on my show.
If I want to eat, I have to pay money
for it. Point being, when you choose one thing, you
lose something else. That's opportunity cost. We're not just drafting rookies. Okay,
I think there's a tendency to say we're drafting this rookie.
What a great idea. No, you have the opportunity cost

(40:17):
of losing a veteran who may be a proven player.
This is a perfect example. I did a mock tonight
where I was able to get Jacoby Myers. I believe
eighth round, ninth round, something like that some late and
somebody took Tet McMillan in the fourth round. Now, folks,
I'm not here to tell you that McMillan isn't going
to be a thing, because I think that he's the

(40:39):
frosting this year. You got to give him a shot.
With that draft capital and with the way that offense
started to run at the end of last year, Tep McMillan.
He's a fine pick. But when you're talking about McMillan
versus Jacoby Myers, somebody booked marked this for me, who's
going to finish higher? If you had to put odds
on it right now, what would the odds be? Would
it be that crazy to say Jacoby Myers is going

(40:59):
to have a better season than the Tet McMillan. Now
I'm not saying that's gonna happen. I'm saying, what are
the odds? And that's the entire point here, Okay, it's
the opportunity cost of what you could be drafting when
you're taking that rookie right now, Omarion Hampton and I
know we're deep into best ball seasons, So that's part
of the problem here. The ADP that we're seeing right

(41:20):
now isn't going to be entirely accurate as we get
later in the summer. But I'm going to argue here
that Omarion Hampton's ADP is probably gonna rise, not go down.
But right now he's being drafted around guys like Alvin Kamara,
Joe Mixon, Chuba Hubbard, Ken Walker. Now, Folks, I love
Amarion Hampton. I love that he landed in LA, but

(41:43):
he's also fighting for touches with Najee Harris, and he's
a rookie and you're wanting him over these four guys
that we know can produce at a high level in
the NFL. Now, I'm not saying I'm never gonna make
that choice. I'm saying, let's not make that choice all
the time. We're going to talk about that in just
a second, on how we're going to operate going forward
with these rookies. But I think it's borderline nuts that

(42:07):
Omari and Hampton's ADP is higher than those four guys.
I think that's nuts. I'm sorry. I love Omari and Hampton.
I think he's a great player, but we're doing the thing, okay,
and if he's special and he turns out to be
a league winner. I'll eat my words. But the ADP
for some of these guys, it's about opportunity cost. Okay,

(42:27):
it's not just about where you had last summer. You
had to take Marvin Harrison at the one two turn,
you had to take Mo League Neighbors at the two
three turn. There were really good players available at the
bottom of one and two that you missed out on
because you took Harrison. There were good players at the
two three turn. Now, if that hadn't worked out with Neighbors,
we'd be saying, what were we doing with these two

(42:49):
guys this high? Now it worked out for one of them. Okay, great,
The point being, there's a really low hit rate here,
especially for that high of an ADP. Let's not make
the mistake again. The ADP is too high on some
of these guys because we're too obsessed with finding the
next guy that's gonna break out, that's gonna go nuts,
that's gonna have that Jamar Chase seventh round rookie season.

(43:13):
We're too obsessed with it, all right, So it's not
just where you draft him. It's the opportunity cost of
what you lose when you draft them. That's less than
number one that I drew the conclusion from these numbers,
and that leads into number two because I think we
had an exceptionally healthy year for some of these players.
And I'm not here to say that rookies get hurt

(43:35):
more than veterans. I'm not here to say that, but
I do believe it's a real thing to learn how
to adjust to the NFL game. And Marcus Grant's gonna
have a great point. I don't want to steal his thunder,
but I'm going to anyway. He had a point about
rookies after their bye weeks, and I think it's a
fantastic point because he was talking to somebody who said,

(43:55):
you know, a lot of these guys, they go through
their college season and then it's right under the combine,
and then it's right into the draft, and it's into
mini camps and blah blah blah, and by the time
they get to their week seven by of their rookie season,
it's the first time they've had to breathe and not
just be buried with football with what they have to do.
They get a few days off, maybe they spend that

(44:16):
time in the playbook a little bit more. After the
bye weeks. Sometimes these rookies can take off because they
need that rest and they need to be able to
adjust to what the NFL is throwing at them. So
that's a reason we see a lot of post by
bumps on rookies. But I want to bring it back
to the main point, which is there are a lot

(44:38):
of parts of being a pro that rookies have to
figure out. And I don't know if this alarms you
at all, but I heard Kyle Pitts's offensive coordinator talking
the other day about how they want them to become
a more complete tight end, and I'm thinking to myself, Bro,
how long have you been in the league that they
don't consider you a complete tight end? No wonder you're
not getting on the field, no wonder. His hart share

(45:00):
is so low and his rot rate, his route participation
is so low. He doesn't even know what it means
to be an NFL tight end yet. And he's been
in the league thirty seven years. Pitts has been around
long enough. He should be a pro. Folks, this stuff matters.
You think it doesn't matter, But why are we sitting
here debating Kyle Pitts when his offensive coordinator is trying
to make him a complete tight end. Brock Bauers is

(45:24):
a bit of a unicorn in what he did last year,
and I'm not saying it's never gonna happen again, because again,
I think people are more ready than they've ever been.
But my point is very simple. There are many facets
to becoming a pro, taking care of your body, learning
that when you're at the highest level, you can't maybe
just go out and drink all the time and eat
poorly and still go produce on Sundays. Maybe the best

(45:46):
guys can. I mean, Rod Smith used to eat frudy
pebbles and McDonald's, but he was special. These rookies have
to learn what it means to be in the NFL,
and that means staying healthy. And a lot of people
will be like, oh, well he got hurt or oh
well they didn't work him until oh they didn't. Those
are things, guys, Those are That's the point. That's that

(46:07):
is the essence of what it means to be a rookie.
Oh well he didn't start getting snaps until yeah, because
he's a rookie. So when you draft him, we're talking
about typical rosters. Now, as your rosters expand you can
go more crazy with this again, talk about that in
just a second. But that's the point, folks. There are
many facets of being a pro and to learn all

(46:30):
of them requires time and it requires special players. So
that's point number two. And then point number three is this.
I want to bring it back to the seven starters
because I don't want to sit here and bore you
with a list of rookies that missed last year, but
I want you to spend a little bit of time
being honest with yourself. We pulled seven starters from the

(46:52):
entire rookie class. Seven starters, and not all of those
guys were top level starters, were they because even if
they were starters, sometimes they weren't that great. Yeah, we
love lad McConkey. Put over the first half of the season,
he was wide receiver twenty seven. What was that doing
for you over the first half of that season. I'm
not saying you shouldn't hold on to McConkey and wait

(47:13):
for him to finish wide receiver fifteen over the second
half of the year. But if we know certain things
about veterans that are being drafted around the rookies, I
believe that we can lower our risk and fix a
little bit of a leak in the game by not
getting over our skis with how many guys were drafting

(47:33):
from the rookie pool. If I were to tell you
this year the over under on how many rookies are
going to be startable guys week in and week out,
and I said six and a half, what would you take?
Would you take the over of the under? Go through
your mind and say, well, how many guys are really
special at wide receiver? Not many this year? How many

(47:54):
running backs? Yeah, we got a few more this year
than last year. What about a quarterback? Is Cam wore
He's gonna comit and be a top twelve guy? I
don't know what about it? Tight end. I don't know
that we have any brock Bowers in this year's class.
So again, go through the entire pool of rookies. Set
it at five and a half six and a half.
Do you think it's going to be over under guys
that we're going to see that are starters? How many

(48:16):
guys last year did people talk to you about all
summer long that did nothing? That did absolutely nothing? And
that's what I want you to remember. Maybe you need
to write that on a post it. And that's the
end of my lessons, okay, because that's the most important one.
You can remember the hits all you want, but if
you're not being honest with yourself about all the misses,

(48:37):
you're going to be the guy jamming the hook in
the water trying to hit on these rookies when you
should just be letting the hook gently slide by the
kelp and take the kelp off the hole. And how
do we do that? How are we the guy that
lets the hook glide through the water and doesn't impede
our progress. I have a very simple plan for you.

(48:58):
I'm going to talk about it with Marcus a little bit,
but I talked about it with Scott last week. Folks.
I think it's real simple. I don't know that there's
a lot of mid round ability to go after players
that are going to be difference makers, that are going
to be league winners. Now. I know we had, you know,
Jefferson and chasing those guys, but I think that the
way we have to take shots on rookies is quite simple.

(49:21):
If we have a normal sixteen man roster where we've
got six or seven guys on the bench, I don't
think you can go over two guys on your bench
that are rookies. Now, if you draft one of them
and they're a starter, I understand maybe you can squeeze three,
but I think that's really our limit. So I really
want you to go into this your fantasy drafts this summer,

(49:41):
and I want you to limit yourself. And I want
you to tell yourself how many rookies am I allowed
to draft, Because before you know what, you're going to
look up and you're going to be like, well, I
have Kyle Williams and Trey Harris and Amari and Hampton
and Jack Betch and whatever I don't know how to
say his name, and then all of a sudden, you've
got all these rookies and it's like, dude, you're going
to be cutting all those guys, okay, So don't fall

(50:02):
prey to everybody pushing the rookies on you all summer.
Remember this, I'm going to say something that I know
nobody likes when I say it, but I think it's important.
If you just took the rookies out of the pool completely,
take him out of the playerpool, and say I'm never
drafting a rookie on a redraft team. Ever, again, you

(50:23):
would still win money at fantasy football. You would still
be successful. I am not telling you to do that.
I'm telling you the very simple plan is this to
be the guy that sticks the hook in the water
un lets it glide gently down to not impede your progress.
You cannot be drafting four and five rookies to your

(50:43):
redraft teams. It just isn't profitable. It's a huge leak
that many people in this industry have. And maybe I'm
going to be the only guy screaming about this from
now until the time I retire from fantasy football, But
I believe it is the biggest leak in the fantasy
community game, and I'm going to harp on that until
I'm blue in the face. I think it's that important,

(51:05):
and I think it's that important that we get it right.
So before you go into a draft, look at your
league and say, how excited are they going to be
about rookies? Which guys am I going after? And which
guys am I going to limit myself to. Which guys
are the frosting for me, which guys are the cake
for me? Which guys do I not care about? And
which guys am I going to go after and I
think it's important if you're going to take a shot

(51:26):
on a big guy, do one and then take a
shot on somebody late. My favorite thing to do is
just to take two guys late.

Speaker 1 (51:34):
Now.

Speaker 2 (51:34):
I had Harrison and Thomas on one team last year
because I got a deal on Harrison I didn't expect
to get. But for the most part, I think taking
a shot on one top guy and then one late
or too late is how I want to play it,
and that's how I want you to play it, because
I really believe looking at these numbers, it's a stark
reminder that we are indoctrinated with the rookie hype, with

(51:59):
the brand new shiny toy every summer, and I think
it's a big leak in our game. So we're gonna
be done with this topic now because I think we've
hit it, We've get given it the treatment, and I'm
gonna move on because we need to start looking forward
to twenty twenty five. And I think we've done most
of the looking back that we're gonna do about ninety
percent of it. I got a little bit more I

(52:20):
want to do next week, but after that we are
approaching July, and that's when we're gonna start building our
house back up. We've torn it down, We've looked at
all the insides to see if we're sound, if we've
got the foundation to build for twenty twenty five, and
I think we're very, very close to being ready to
look ahead to next year. Without further rambling from your host,

(52:44):
let's get you on to NFL Networks. Marcus Grant, one
of my favorite people in the business, and we're gonna
have a fun conversation. All right, here's this week's discussions
with Drew and Marcus Grant.

Speaker 3 (52:57):
Time for Discussions with Drew, Conversations with the brightest minds
in the fantasy industry.

Speaker 2 (53:05):
Hey, everybody, welcome into this week's discussions with Drew. I
have a returning guest for us that has officially taken
the title that everybody out there wants, but only one
person can have, and that title is most appearances on
the auction Brief, my friend mister Marcus Grant from the
NFL Network at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. Marcus, thank you

(53:27):
for coming on for like the three hundred and fifty
seventh time. We really appreciate the time you've given this show.
I don't say that lightly. I do appreciate it. How
you bet, man, I'm good man. It's good to be back. Yeah,
I always sort of can. There are a few things
during the summer that I can sort of set my
watch to right.

Speaker 3 (53:44):
It is like it's like the scott Fish Bowl, and
it's getting the text to want to ask you whether
or not I want to come back on this show.
So I'm glad to be back here. I do want
to know, like who am I am? I in competition
with somebody who else has like a lot of appearances
on this show.

Speaker 2 (53:57):
So I think second place is dra because you know,
he's the guy who really got me on the air
and said, hey, yeah, we'll carry your show over at
fighting chance. So I always asked Brian to come on.
But you I think you've got him by two appearances
right now.

Speaker 3 (54:13):
Oh, Okay, when I see him in Canton, I'm gonna
have to, you know, rub it in and let him know.

Speaker 2 (54:18):
Yeah. I mean, you know, because that's what everybody's going
to be talking about, is who on the Auks. Okay, So,
but you will be back in Canton.

Speaker 3 (54:30):
I will be, Yeah, I am. I got my ticket
to the expo. I have a hotel room. As always,
I'm dragging my feet on getting the actual flight, but
that'll happen.

Speaker 2 (54:38):
Sure understood, And just said, well, I'm glad you're going
to be back, and like we were just saying before
I came on the air, got to meet your I
guess would it be co host on the show? Is
that what you're mister Florio? There he's he was fun
hang last year, so I'm excited to do that again
this year. What are you working on right now? Like
where can people find you? Number one? And what are

(55:00):
you working on right now that you want people to
know about?

Speaker 3 (55:02):
Yeah, right now, most of which are what I'm doing
is at NFL NFL Media, So the NFL Fantasy Football Show.

Speaker 1 (55:09):
It's myself, as you mentioned, Michael f Florio.

Speaker 3 (55:11):
Don't forget the f because apparently the other Florio gets
bent out of shape about it. So Michael f Florio
Lakwan Jones are still doing a show usually a couple
times a week that you can find there. We'll be
back on Sirius starting in about a month, little less
than a month, doing a show for Matthew Berry's Fantasy

(55:31):
Life on Sirius XM that's normally gonna be Saturdays from
ten am to noon. I host that with a guy
named Chris Manzo, who is a football and fantasy football fanatic,
but his day job is actually running an Italian restaurant
on the Jersey Shore. But it's a fun show, so
you can find us every Saturday doing that as well.
So that's that chicks back up in middle of July.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
Middle of July. Okay, well, it is a pretty weird
time right now because we're in that spot where we
got to see some guys running around in shorts catching passes.
But we've got a little break here, which honestly, hey,
that's when the fantasy football lawyer can shine, because we
know somebody's going to go out and do something dumb.
Let's hope they don't. Let's hope I don't have any

(56:16):
work between now and training camp. But we're still kind
of early in the summer. And so the show sheet
that I gave you today had some stuff like, hey,
what do you think about what happened in the offseason
on some of this stuff? And that's one of the
things that I really enjoy doing. I know it's not
as exciting for a lot of people. Because they want
to say who should I draft this year? But I

(56:37):
really think it helps us to look back at some
stuff that happened last year and think, hey, how can
I use this going forward? So I'm going to ask
you a couple of general questions first, and those are, like,
I feel like I have to teach myself over and
over some lessons that I may not have learned very
well in the past, or something new that popped up
that I did wrong. Is there something that sticks out

(56:58):
in your head from twenty twenty four, or just generally
that in fantasy football, you're telling yourself, hey, I got
to remember that going forward.

Speaker 1 (57:05):
I always have to remember. And this is not just
this year thing.

Speaker 3 (57:07):
This is like an every year thing of Man, you
don't have to overspend on a quarterback, right that it's
you know, look, it's not a bad thing. If you're
spending up and you're getting Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, what
have you like, it's not a terrible thing. But the
thing that I always forget is that there's always a
handful of quarterbacks that show up later, that get nominated

(57:31):
a little bit later and end up going for like,
you know, three to five dollars, and you're always sort
of frustrated kicking yourself, like I knew better. I knew
better than to go out and spend twenty dollars on
a quarterback and when I could still get a really
quality one for like five. And so it's always a
thing that I tell myself after the draft that I

(57:52):
need to remember. And so I'm I'm actually now that
I'm say this, I'm gonna write it down or put
it in my phone or something to remind myself that
I don't necessarily have to go out and break the
bank to get a quarterback, that I can still find
one that's going to be nominated undoubtedly later in the
draft and still going to be a pretty good option
for me at my starting spot.

Speaker 2 (58:11):
This is a great point because I was just talking
about this with Scott Pianowski last week, because I spent
twenty I think twenty or twenty one right about what
you were saying at the King's Classic last year in
Jalen Hurts, because I was just surprised that the bidding
stopped that early, and I thought, well, hey, if I can,
you know, get double digit rushing touchdowns in this format,

(58:33):
it's going to provide a nice little baseline for a
fourteen team league for my scoring. But you know what
I found out was in the past couple of years,
the quarterbacks at the top, they're so pricey, and at
the bottom, I don't really want that for one or
two dollars. There's a nice little pocket in there, like
you said, five six bucks, you can get some really

(58:53):
good players. And hey, if you're aggressive on the wire,
guys like Bownix, you know, come out of nowhere, and
that's possible too. So well, how about an auction lesson?
That sounded a little bit like an auction lesson there too.
Is there anything that happened to you in an auction
drafts that, like you thought, hey, I really need to
lock into this next year.

Speaker 3 (59:13):
I do need to be I think a little more
aggressive early on. Like the last couple of years. I
think I've just sat back in kind of wait, like
maybe I get one early and then I sit back
and I wait.

Speaker 1 (59:22):
But I think it's okay to be a little bit
more aggressive early on in drafts.

Speaker 3 (59:26):
And I think there's there's a balance, right, It's not
necessarily you know, jumping all in, Like I don't want
to be the person that you know, spends one hundred
and thirty bucks and then I'm just sitting around waiting
for the rest of the afternoon. But I think it's
it's finding that line between being too aggressive and too
passive when it comes to bidding on guys, because I

(59:47):
think the last few years, I've decided, you know what,
I want to.

Speaker 1 (59:50):
Let everybody else spend all their minds. I'm gonna go
get somebody, and I feel like I've missed out on
guys that you know.

Speaker 3 (59:55):
Maybe I was on the fence about, but could have
maybe taken a shot at. And if for no other reason,
you know, you know this words drive the price up,
and even if you don't end up with that player,
somebody else maybe has to pay a couple extra bucks
because you decided you wanted to kind of stir the
pod a little bit.

Speaker 2 (01:00:10):
Yeah, that was a point of emphasis for me last summer.
I said, Hey, I'm way too enamored with sitting there
and being like I'm going to have the most money left.
I'm way too excited about that. So I told myself
spend some money, and I did. Last year, certainly at
the Kings, I spent early on Jonathan Taylor, and Chris
o'love because I thought the prices were good and they
were going to be good. It turned out that they
were good prices. Well, Lave is a different story, you know,

(01:00:33):
results oriented. I don't want to be a results oriented
point being I was definitely pushing myself last summer. So
I think that's a great point. You can't sit there
because if you sit there too long, then you're going
to look back and say, ah, boy, that thirty eight
bucks on Jamior Gibbs was really a nice deal. So
that's a good one. So well, I want to turn
to a topic on this show that I beat to death,

(01:00:57):
and I'm sure my listeners are tiring, but it's rookies.
And one of the things that I say every year
is the hit rate is so low on rookies that
I think you could almost just ignore them all together
and you would still be fine and be successful in
fantasy football. I don't want to do that, That's not
what I'm saying, but the hit rate is so low
it's difficult. And so I always like to ask my guests, hey,

(01:01:18):
how do you handle this stuff? And I guess the
first thing I would say is when you're in a
typical redraft league. We're not talking dynasty or anything like that,
or we're holding we have a limited amount of bench spots.
You know, in most leagues you're getting six to eight
bench spots if you're lucky eight. Most of the time
it's six. You have to hold onto those rookies. Sometimes
you have to commit to being you know, to being

(01:01:39):
sticky with them on your roster, and then buys come
around and injuries come around. What's your approach in the
draft for roster construction when it comes to rookies.

Speaker 3 (01:01:48):
So lately I've been started taking late round shots at
guys right, like, I don't mind taking that shot in
the back part of the draft, where hey, look there's
a guy that has an opportunity and understanding to your
point that chances are you're gonna have to wait and
be patient, so you're gonna have to be willing to
burn a bench spot potentially for a month, maybe more,
depending on how things shake out. But I'm willing to

(01:02:09):
kind of take that swing in the back part of
the draft, the double digit round, seeing what happens, because
you can sort of get a sense early on and
for the most part about how a guy's going to develop. Right,
If you see early on in the season that this
guy's getting opportunity, you can sort of believe that those
opportunities will grow as long as he's playing relatively well
throughout the season. You know, like, I look at a

(01:02:33):
guy like Ashton Genti, for instance, and the asking price
is going to be very high. Now, granted, in some
best ball drafts, I've taken him a couple of times,
but you have to understand that this is a guy
who's going to command a first round draft price, and
you have to sort of judge whether or not you
feel like a Raiders running back is going to be

(01:02:54):
worthwhile on a team that you know might be a
mediocre at best offensive team.

Speaker 1 (01:02:58):
Will the offensive line be good enough to open holes
for him?

Speaker 3 (01:03:02):
So that's kind of a calculated risk that I don't
think I'm gonna do on a ton of redraft leagues.

Speaker 1 (01:03:08):
And I don't know. I just I'm not over the
moon about this year's draft class altogether.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
Right.

Speaker 1 (01:03:15):
I know everybody talked about.

Speaker 3 (01:03:16):
The depth of the running back class, but it does
feel like a lot of the guys that we like
ended up in situations where they're really going to have
to share opportunity. I think the wide receiver class is okay.
I don't think anybody thought this was a great one,
but it feels like the guys that we really did
like in this wide receiver class ended up in situations
where I don't love their quarterback or I don't love

(01:03:36):
the offense. So this is a year I probably won't
draft as many rookies as I have in the past,
but when I do, it'll probably be sort of late
round guys that I think have a path.

Speaker 1 (01:03:46):
To later production than you would see normally. And also
do I.

Speaker 3 (01:03:50):
Still do believe in the the rookies after a bye
week that you know, after you get that one week off,
you sort of had some games to get under your belt.
You guys ask Fucky Brooks about this too, like, how
is this really a thing? And he said it is
because what happens is, you know a lot of these rookies,
you go through your entire college season, then you go

(01:04:10):
through draft season where you're working out getting ready for
the Combine. You're doing Combine workouts and interviews, and the
draft happens, and then you do mini camps. He's like,
for a lot of these guys, that bye week is
the first time they've had to really slow down and
maybe rest for you know, close to a calendar year.
So he's like, there is a reason you see rookies
get that bye week bump. It's because it finally got

(01:04:32):
to get to get off their feet and at least
take their mind off football for a week, which hasn't
happened for a really long time.

Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
That's a that's a great point because that post rookie bump,
I actually screwed up. I think was it this year
last year, dropping somebody right before that rookie bye and
it really came back to hurt me. I can't remember
the name. But that is an excellent point, and it's
something you have to factor. And it's so hard for
me because as much as I rail against rookies being

(01:05:00):
so popular, there are exceptions lately, and those outliers, those
exceptions like Neighbors and Jefferson and those guys that can
win you titles. At the same time, the hit rate
is so low. It's a real it's a balancing act
between how much time you want to spend with that
guy sitting on your bench. You could have Ken Coleman
sitting on your bench all last year and it never

(01:05:21):
really materialized. So you know it's tough. It's tough out there. Well,
are there any guys that, off the top of your
head that you're targeting or have been targeting in best
Ball rookie specifically, that you're thinking, Hey, I really I
always like to say, I'm scared to not have some
of this guy. Are there any of those guys that
you're thinking about, maybe besides Genty because we all know

(01:05:43):
that he's a big talent, anybody else that you're thinking about.

Speaker 3 (01:05:47):
So I would say that coming into the NFL Draft,
I was a big Tyler Warren guy. I just don't
love the situation in Indianapolis. So I've kind of pivoted
a little bit to Colston Loveland in the draft. The
price is not going to be really high on a
tight end, a rookie tight end on a team with
a lot of target competition. But I do think there's

(01:06:08):
a reason they drafted him as the first tight end
in the NFL draft, and with Ben Johnson coming there,
I'm excited about Colston Loveland. I have been for a
long time a cam Scataboo guy. In fact, by our
pod with myself and Florio and Lakwan. We're we're sort
of a Cam Scataboo friendly podcast, and I get it,

(01:06:29):
Tyrone Tyrone Tracy is probably gonna be the RB one
there in New York. But I do think we're going
to see Skataboo carve out a pretty nice role, especially
as a pass catcher. And he's sort of a different player,
but in some ways it kind of gives me Austin
Eckler type vibes in terms of what he can do
and what they may ask him to do. So and

(01:06:50):
again it's another situation where the ADP is not going
to be outrageous for Cam Scataboo, so I can get
him kind of in the later rounds there. So those
are those are two guys that I'm really going out
of my way to try and get this year.

Speaker 2 (01:07:04):
Okay, So anybody that you think everyone's kind of flipping
out over that is a little mispriced, that you think
we should be calming down a little bit on a rookie.

Speaker 3 (01:07:14):
I think in redraft leagues, I'm not ready to pay
the price on Omari and Hampton just yet. And you know, look,
I know I will probably talk about Najie Harris a
little bit later, but you know, I still think that
they brought in Nase for a reason.

Speaker 1 (01:07:29):
I think they were talking to JK. Dobbins.

Speaker 3 (01:07:32):
I mean, I know, you know, ultimately he's not going
to go back to LA But there was a reason
I think they were talking about bringing him back is
that I don't know that they're ready in year one
to hand over a huge workload to Hampton. Now in
year two, I'm willing to entertain that conversation. Year one,
I'm not sold the other guy that people seem to love.
That for me, it's not about Him's about the situation.

Speaker 1 (01:07:53):
It's R. J.

Speaker 3 (01:07:54):
Harvey speaking of you know, JK. Dobbins and the Denver Broncos.
Most because I just don't trust on Peyton. He does right,
He does not care about us. He does not care
about our fantasy teams. We have seen so many times
with him not really giving opportunity to rookies or to
young players. You know, I don't know how many times

(01:08:17):
we kept hearing I should get Marvin Mims more involved,
and somehow Marvin Mims was never more involved in the offense.
You know, it was like a few weeks ago Peyton
was talking about Audric Estimate. I think it's gonna have
a really nice role. Then they go out, they bring
in JK. Dobbins, you know who knows. Maybe Harvey is
the lead back there in Denver. But I still think
so many of these other guys I haven't mentioned Julia McLoughlin, somebody,

(01:08:39):
these other guys are gonna get opportunities. I just think
it's gonna be unsatisfying no matter which Broncos running back
you have. So I know a lot of folks are
really excited about our j Harvey. I think he's a
talented player. I just don't love the situation, and I
don't like the fact that his coach tends to tell
us falsehoods a lot.

Speaker 2 (01:08:57):
Yeah, and that Harvey thing is interesting for those of
us old enough to remember the fawns jumping a shark,
it feels like that has we've reached that point already
in the middle of June here that the hype on
Harvey's jumped the shark. For me, it's just it's going
to that point where it's just way too expensive to
get him for exactly all the reasons you mentioned. If

(01:09:18):
you can get him for a smaller price or a
later round pick, mitigate some of that risk that we
have in the Peyton with the Peyton Shenanigans. So I'm
with you on that. You know, the Hampton thing's interesting
too because and again we're going to talk about this
in a little bit, but guys like Dajie Harris and
Kyraen Williams, they do things that their coaches love and

(01:09:39):
it's not necessarily flashy to us as fantasy guys, but
they get up the field. They're not messing around, they
know how to read the blocks and they just get upfield.
And sometimes it's two yards, but the coaches love that
instead of it being minus three. So I think Harris
is going to play a bigger role than anybody thinks.
But then again, i'm mister anti rookie, so why listen

(01:09:59):
to me? All right, let's get off the rookies for
a minute here. And we had a pretty big off
season for quite a few different big fantasy producers, and
I'm wondering what your thoughts are on some of these
developments in the off season. We can say, you know,
is this a positive development? Is it negative? Do we
not really care? But the first guy right out of
the gate that pops into my head constantly when I'm

(01:10:21):
thinking about the season, is Malik Neighbors Because I've been
I'm on record already last week and saying I was
way underweight on Neighbors. I think I had him in
one league. I was going to use some colorful language there.
My dumb ass just kept, you know, talking about them
all summer, like, hey, I don't know about Daniel Jones.

(01:10:41):
I don't know about Daniel Jones. I could not stop
seeing what about Daniel Jones instead of paying attention to
the fact that Neighbors is the truth. So what do
we think now about Malie Neighbors this year with a
different quarterback situation. We're out with Daniel Jones, but now
we've got this weird hodgepodge of guys who are very capable,
but nobody's exciting Russe Wilson, you know, Jameis Winston, and

(01:11:04):
then they draft the rookie. What do you think about Neighbors?
Is this arrow up? Or do we not really care
about the change at quarterback?

Speaker 1 (01:11:10):
Yeah don't. I don't know that it matters to me.

Speaker 3 (01:11:13):
I think he continues to be productive regardless of who's
at quarterback. You know, I think you can make an
argument that moving from Daniel Jones to Russell Wilson is
a net positive. I don't know if it's a significant upgrade,
but I don't think it can certainly be any worse
than what he had before. And last year we saw
him put up over twelve hundred yards and seven touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (01:11:34):
So I don't.

Speaker 3 (01:11:35):
See anything really changing in that regard, especially when you
look at that wide receiver room and there haven't been
any major changes, Like, okay, they add Zach paskeal if
that does anything for you, But you know, but beyond that,
everything remains pretty much status quo there in the wide
receiver room in New York. So you know, I think

(01:11:57):
he continues to excel. He's got quarterbacks can get him
the ball, whether it's Russ. If something were to happen
to Russ, we know Jamis is going to stand back
there and throw yolo balls, which isn't a terrible thing
for Elie neighbors, you know. I mean, we'll see, like
if look, if it gets down to Jackson Dart, then
things have gone even more terribly wrong for the Giants
than we possibly could have imagined.

Speaker 1 (01:12:18):
I just I don't really see that happening.

Speaker 3 (01:12:19):
But on the whole I'm I haven't really changed, I
haven't moved off of a leak neighbor.

Speaker 1 (01:12:25):
I'm kind of with you.

Speaker 3 (01:12:26):
I didn't draft a ton of him, kind of for
the similar reasons that you said about Daniel Jones. But
now that we've seen what he can do, I don't
know that a changing quarterback is going to make me
feel any better or worse about the neighbors this year.

Speaker 2 (01:12:41):
Yeah, and his draft cost obviously says that everyone thinks
that's his floor and that it's got to be some
sort of positive development. I'm with you. I don't know
where Russ is right now. I know the receivers are
talking about how much different it is to catch a
ball from Russ. So I tend to try not to
listen to players because they're the worst source of information.
But when they say, hey, that he throws a catchable

(01:13:02):
ball or he's reading the safety. I heard Darius Slayton
say today he's reading the safety. When the safety drops down,
he throws it over the top. And I don't think
that's something that we had last year very much with
Daniel Jones. So I'm hoping that helps. We shall see
another big receiver that switched teams this year, so obviously
he's switching quarterbacks. As DK Metcalf, he goes to Pittsburgh.

(01:13:24):
We got all sorts of weird stuff happening in Pittsburgh.
You know, we got Art Smith, who everyone loves to
hate me included. But then you know, then we got
old man Rogers in here. Metcalf goes from a fairly
reasonably decent situation for him to just a lot of
moving parts in Pittsburgh. What do you think about Metcalf's offseason.

Speaker 3 (01:13:44):
I don't want any part of the Steelers' offense, like
at all. I just don't want to deal with it.
I mean, I think, I think when you look at it,
if you're gonna make an argument in favor of DK Metcalf,
it's the standard, you know, old fashioned. Well, somebody's got
to catch the ball, right, I mean, like somebody's got
to get off the targets.

Speaker 1 (01:14:02):
There, right.

Speaker 3 (01:14:03):
Like you know, as much as I love Robert Woods,
fight on forever, you know, Trojan guy, but like you know,
I mean, this is this is the very tail end
of Robert Woods' career. Calvin Austin hasn't shown that he's
gonna be a big time target earner.

Speaker 1 (01:14:17):
I mean, I'm looking.

Speaker 3 (01:14:18):
At Scotty Miller, Roman Wilson, Ben Scaronic, like, stop me
when somebody looks like they can steal a whole bunch
of targets from DK, you know. So, I mean, I
think that's the argument in favor of him.

Speaker 1 (01:14:29):
But look what.

Speaker 3 (01:14:30):
We've seen out of Aaron Rodgers, what we saw out
of him most of last year, just a guy who
was an all time great, but now is starting to
look every bit of forty one years.

Speaker 1 (01:14:41):
Oh he'll be forty.

Speaker 3 (01:14:42):
Two before the season ends. He's starting to look every
bit of that. And so I don't know that I
want to lean on DK metcalf. I mean, if I
were to take the shot, I don't think I want
him is more than like a low end wide receiver too,
probably more wide receiver three. But generally speaking, I think
everything in Pittsburgh offensively at least is a mess, and

(01:15:02):
I'm generally just staying away from it.

Speaker 2 (01:15:05):
Yeah, And if you want him in that range, that
end of wide receiver two, top of wide receiver three territory,
most of the times, he's not going to be there,
And I'm completely content with letting someone else take on
that risk. If I'm wrong. I'm wrong. I just don't
see him going for you know, fourteen and ten to
make me wrong. So hey, let's let's bookmark that bad

(01:15:27):
boy and we'll talk week four after he has this
third straight two touchdown game. Anyway, apparently I was excited
about receivers when I put together the show sheet because
I got another guy. I want to ask you about
Brian Thomas and Jacksonville. And we've got two huge moving
parts here, which are you know, the new offensive minded

(01:15:48):
coach that we saw coach forty four touchdowns out of
Baker Mayfield last year. And then we've got Travis Hunter
now there to compete for targets. Now, I'm not necessarily
that excited about Hunter for redraft, but what does that
do to Thomas's value? Is it going to create some
depression in some of his games this year that we
should be concerned or do we flip it on its

(01:16:10):
head and say, hey, we're pretty excited. This is a
legit option opposite Thomas to keep the defenses.

Speaker 3 (01:16:16):
Honest, I think that there's a little bit of reason
to be concerned, mostly because again, what the asking price
is for Brian Thomas. You're talking about into the first round,
start of the second round.

Speaker 1 (01:16:28):
For a guy who had a good year.

Speaker 3 (01:16:31):
But when it's one of those things, when you start
to dig into it a little bit, I think there
are reasons to have questions. Right, is that he really
started to come on kind of in the latter part
of the season. And when you go back and look one,
as Florio pointed out on our podcast, he had more
success with Mac Jones than he did with Trevor Lawrence.

(01:16:54):
And you know Mac Jones now reflects his mail in
San Francisco. The other part of it is a lot
of this happened later in the year when there were
so many injuries up and down the wide receiver room
for Jacksonville, right, I mean, you know you had Evan
Ingram tied end, but he was out later in the season.
Christian Kirk ended up missing about half the season with injuries.

(01:17:16):
I mean, you had a lot of big time pass
catchers that just weren't there, and that is when you
saw Thomas start to get a lot of his targets
at the latter part of the season.

Speaker 1 (01:17:27):
So that's a little bit concerning.

Speaker 3 (01:17:29):
And then yeah, I mean, if we're talking about Travis Hunter,
I think whether or not you are in the market
to draft him.

Speaker 1 (01:17:36):
I think there's something to be.

Speaker 3 (01:17:38):
Said for the Jaguars one spending the number two overall
pick on him, and then on top of it, Liam
Cohen immediately saying, oh no, we're playing him at wide
receiver and then he will moonlight sort of as a
defensive back. I mean, that had been the big question
for a lot of us is, hey, look, he's a
really talented wide receiver. But if he's going to be

(01:18:00):
mostly a defensive back and some occasional wide receiver snaps,
then it's going to be hard to draft him in fantasy.
With the Jaguars saying oh no, we want him to
be a wide out and then he'll have some packages
on defense, suggests they want to get him targets, and
so that needs some more target competition.

Speaker 1 (01:18:16):
For a guy that didn't have a lot of it
in the back half of the year.

Speaker 3 (01:18:18):
So that worries me a little bit about Thomas. I'm
the only thing I can combat that with is remember
at the end of a Monra Saint Brown's rookie year,
the Lions had a lot of guys hurt, and Saint
Brown ended up with a lot of targets, and he
really balled out at the end of the year, and
a lot of people, not me, but a lot of
other people because I'm a usc homer, but a lot

(01:18:39):
of other people said, hey man, you only got those
targets because everybody was hurt. And then the next year
he came back and he immediately balled out from the beginning,
and we kind of put that whole conversation to bed. So,
while I'm saying all this about Thomas, if he comes
out and in the first month he's just eating and
he's getting ten to twelve targets a game and he's
putting up ninety to one hundred yards and scoring touchdowns,

(01:19:00):
then I'll shut up about this whole thing.

Speaker 1 (01:19:02):
But I do have I do have some concerns about
him right now.

Speaker 2 (01:19:06):
And that's fair certainly for the price tag too. And
that's that's really how you started, you know, the answer,
which is exactly where we're at. It really takes a reach.
Reach is a bad word. It really you have to
stretch to get him, though, because everybody's excited about him
and I don't know what's going to happen with this
Hunter thing, I'll plead ignorance right now on you know,

(01:19:27):
in the middle of June about what my opinion is
on the effect that that hunter is going to have.
So I like hearing your thoughts on that. Let's talk
about yet another receiver, a guy who has switched teams.
That's George Pickens. So part of the fallout the Steelers
had with their receiver room was they were looking for

(01:19:47):
somebody and they wouldn't say it out loud, but we
knew they were trying to move Pickens. They finally do
to Dallas. Now they get Dak Prescott back. Everyone says, hey,
he's mostly going to be healthy. But some of the
Twitter docs that you know that I listened to, say,
this is a really serious injury. We don't know if
he's going to be one hundred percent yet to start
the year. That worries me a little bit. But also

(01:20:09):
how much is there in this offense for a guy
that likes to throw to the tight end and who
has ceedee lamb. What do we think about George Pickens
and do we care about him?

Speaker 3 (01:20:19):
I mean, I think we care, but it is sort
of predicated upon the health of Dak Prescott.

Speaker 1 (01:20:25):
I think with a healthy Dack, I.

Speaker 3 (01:20:28):
Actually think that Pickens sort of stays steady. I think
I think his production kind of remains constant, in part
because he's not going to necessarily get more targets in
Dallas because he's got CD Lamb there. But I think
with a healthy Dack, I think he gets more quality targets,
and especially in an offense that's going to be a

(01:20:48):
lot more pass heavy than what we saw in Pittsburgh.
Right the Steelers wanted to run the football, it didn't
necessarily have the kind of offense that was going to
open up and throw at a ton. Dallas wants to
throw at they can't really run it. I don't think
anybody's excited about their backfield. As much as I love
Javonte Williams coming out of college, I can admit that,
you know, it just hasn't turned out the way I

(01:21:09):
would have hoped it would be. This is going to
be an offense that throws the football a lot, especially
once Dak is healthy. So I think what Pickens may
miss in terms of volume from his time in Pittsburgh,
he will make up for in terms of quality once
Dak is ready to go. So in that respect, I
sort of think, you know, he sort of statistically remains
the same. What I think is going to be interesting

(01:21:30):
to watch is how does George Pickens coexist in Dallas?

Speaker 1 (01:21:36):
Right?

Speaker 3 (01:21:36):
I mean, it is a place that is filled with distractions,
and George Pickens has not proven to be the most
level headed character to this point in his career. So
you know, when you've got tourists coming through the Star
during practice, or you got all these cameras and microphones
in your face, and if things don't go well, right,
if the Cowboys lose a few in a row and

(01:21:58):
Pickens maybe isn't getting targets the way he hoped, you know,
how will that go?

Speaker 1 (01:22:04):
You know? Will it blow over? So I think that's
sort of an interesting subplot to watch.

Speaker 3 (01:22:07):
But I just think in terms of on the field,
I think what you got out of George Pickens the
last year or two is probably what you're gonna get
out of him again this year at Dallas.

Speaker 2 (01:22:15):
Okay, Yeah, I'm interested to see how he reacts on
a you know, a Ceedee Lamb sixteen target day when
he gets four you know, and Ferguson catches two touchdowns,
So it's going to be interesting. I'm not writing him off,
but he's certainly one of those guys that again, just
like I forget who we were talking about just a
minute ago, there's gonna be somebody who probably wants him

(01:22:37):
more than I do. But you know that it's weird
and auctions, especially a guy like that, could end up
being super cheap, and he's certainly got the upside that
I want to bet on that sometimes. Let's talk about
the aforementioned Najie Harris now for a second, because I
initially thought that the signing was a home run for
his fantasy value, just because I think they have a

(01:22:59):
better all offense and a better quarterback and the running
game is going to be better and it's going to
fit his style. And then they go and slam Amari
and Hampton in there. Boy, it's frustrating for both of
those guys in my opinion, because I feel like we
could have had some strong fantasy value for both of
them and now they're together. Is this just kind of

(01:23:19):
a thing where like, Hey, I'm going to draft Harris,
I'm going to try to get Hampton too, Like what's
your approach on this backfield? And what do you think
about Harris with the exciting rookie there?

Speaker 3 (01:23:29):
So in I think when it comes to redraft, I
will probably take Harris because he's going to be the
cheaper of the two.

Speaker 1 (01:23:37):
In best ball drafts.

Speaker 3 (01:23:38):
I will admit that I've taken some swings at Hampton
just because I think, you know, we all love new
shiny things, and he's the new shiny thing in Los Angeles,
and so I think there's upside there. So in best
ball situations, I'm willing to kind of take Hampton. But
I think I don't think this is going to be
unlike what we've seen in the past and a lot
of places, right, I mean, for the Chargers for those

(01:23:58):
years where they had stay Melvin Gordon and a young
Austin Eckler, or go back to Najie Harris's days in
Pittsburgh where it was him and Jalen Warren together. I
think you're gonna have a similar situation. The Chargers are
built to run the football. It was a thing they
told us last year.

Speaker 1 (01:24:14):
Right.

Speaker 3 (01:24:14):
They hired Jim Harbaugh, he brings in Greg Roman. You know,
they go out, they add at the time Gus Edwards
and JK. Dobbins, They draft Joe Alt. I mean, everything
they did last offseason told us they wanted to run
the football and they pretty much stuck to that. I
don't know that that changes a ton this year. And
so I think Najie Harris is going to have a
role in this offense. I wouldn't totally discount him. And so,

(01:24:36):
like I said, for that reason, if I'm looking at
a redraft situation, I think I'm willing to take the
guy who's ADP is a little bit nicer, and that
for me is Nase Harris, you know. And look, I
could end up being wrong on this. Maybe o'mari and
Hampton really is that dude and they start giving him
a whole lot of work. I just traditionally haven't seen

(01:24:57):
that out of Jim Harbaugh or Greg Roman. I mean,
you go back to the fact that, look, I think
Jim Harbaugh, if iwer I had Christian McCaffrey, it didn't
make him a full time workhorse back at Stanford, you
know what I'm saying.

Speaker 1 (01:25:10):
So, and McCaffrey was a ballering college. He's a baller
in the NFL.

Speaker 3 (01:25:14):
It was a baller in college, and he still didn't
get you know, full time work there at Stanford. So
I don't know that harball is something going to change
his stripes about having Omari and Hampton in Los Angeles.

Speaker 2 (01:25:23):
I just don't think Harris is going to disappear now.
I could see the split flipping a little bit later
in the season, certainly, I'm open to that. I just
don't see Harris disappearing. So I'm with you if he's cheaper,
and especially you know, I know that people love backloading production.
That's all very exciting because we want to win titles,

(01:25:44):
but getting out to a fast start is just as important.
And if I have Najie Harris early in the season,
get me some wins to help me get to four
and one or five and two or whatever, I'm okay
taking the hit at the end of the year if
that's indeed what happens, that it flips, But I just
don't see him dis appearing, So okay, how about let's
hit two more guys. And you know, folks, this you're

(01:26:06):
listening to the master right here, because I do these
shows and I have these long show sheets and I
end up going way too long and cutting stuff out.
But this is a TV guy here. Answers are always
in these like perfectly encapsulated, perfectly like timed out segments.
We're right on time here to hit everything on the

(01:26:26):
show sheet in like this perfect little forty minute block.
So I love it. I'm I'm being funny, but I do.
I love it because we can just march right through
this stuff and it's clear that you're polished and have
done this once or twice before. How about Deebo Samuel
So he switches teams. You know, we saw a weird
year from him with the pneumonia and all that stuff

(01:26:47):
that I think probably really affected him more than we think.
But now he gets a chance to go to Washington.
But it's an odd situation for us to try to parse.
I have no idea what debo we're going to see.
What do you think?

Speaker 3 (01:27:01):
Deebo is a guy that I've avoided the last couple
of years simply because he, to me, is one of
those players that is better in real football than fantasy football.
You know, I'm a Niner fan, so I watched that
team very closely with him.

Speaker 1 (01:27:18):
He does a lot of the dirty work.

Speaker 3 (01:27:19):
He did a lot of the things that Kyle Shanahan
needed for that offense to click. And yeah, he would
have some big games and make some big plays in there,
but you know, on a week two week basis, what
Deebo offered the forty nine ers didn't necessarily translate to
your fantasy team. And I also think part of it
is we got so hung up on that twenty twenty

(01:27:40):
one year right where he had the fourteen hundred receiving yards,
but he also had the big rushing yards, which, by
the way, yeah, three ndred sixty five rushing yards certainly
nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver. The eight
rushing touchdowns were huge, But I also think we sort
of over inflated the value of all of that, or
at least over inflated the of him to replicate that.

(01:28:02):
Part of why that happened was because the Niners, as
they tend to do, had a ton of injuries, especially
at the running back position, and so they asked Deebo
to do a whole lot more. Then they go out,
they get Christian McCaffrey. They didn't need, they didn't need
Debo to be that guy anymore, but they did still
ask him to do a lot of the dirty work.

(01:28:22):
So you look, I mean that that twenty twenty one
year is very much an outlier. In fact, it's the
only time in his career that he's been over nine
hundred receiving yards. He's only had over one thousand scrimmage
yards twice in his career.

Speaker 1 (01:28:38):
It was that year.

Speaker 3 (01:28:39):
It was twenty twenty three when he had eleven hundred
yards and twelve total touchdowns. I think in Washington it's
gonna be a similar thing where he can do so
many things, but I don't know that they're necessarily going
to translate on a week two week basis for fantasy.

Speaker 1 (01:28:53):
I think he'll have some spike.

Speaker 3 (01:28:54):
Weeks in there, but I think a lot of times
you're gonna get a lot of just kind of meth
numbers from Debo's Samuel. I think he's a good player
who doesn't necessarily translate to value in fantasy.

Speaker 1 (01:29:07):
So I'm probably.

Speaker 3 (01:29:09):
Going to avoid him again this year, unless you know,
he absolutely falls in my lap late. So you know,
it's a thing where I think he's a good player.
I just don't think he's a good fantasy option.

Speaker 2 (01:29:19):
Yeah, you made two points in there that I really love.
First of all, if you had said to me, how
many years has he had over a thousand total yards
in a season, and you'd put the number at two
and a half, I would have said over. So that's
excellent information there because I didn't even look at that,
and that surprises me, which is really leading into the

(01:29:40):
second thing that I really liked about what you said,
which is that the one year is the outlier. And
so often with fantasy players, we look at them, we're like, oh,
this is what he could do, this is what he
could be. But for the most part, the guys that
have been in the league as long as Debo has,
we know what they are and we just need to
let them tell us what they are. And he's told

(01:30:01):
us what he is. The one year was the outlier.
Everything else is what he is. So I think that's
an excellent point. He is what he is At this point.
I'm not sure that the commanders are going to unlock
him for another fourteen hundred yards, so I think I'm
going to let him lie as well. But like you said,
maybe he falls in my lap. But I'd be a
little bit surprised just on name value, especially in your

(01:30:21):
home leagues, I think that the casuals are going to
be more interested in that name than we want to be.
So all right, the last guy I'm going to ask
you about before I want to ask you about a
couple of your favorite targets and fades here before I
let you go. The last guy I want to talk
about Garrett Wilson. I've seen a lot of optimism on
my timeline for Garrett Wilson. I'm not saying I don't

(01:30:41):
love the player, because I absolutely do. Had quite a
bit of Garrett Wilson last year. But what do we
think about justin fields and the effect on Garrett Wilson.
I absolutely love the player, I don't love the quarterback.
But am I doing my thing again where I hated
Thelik Neighbors last year and he was fine, Like, I
don't know what to think about that justin fields effect

(01:31:02):
because I don't trust him as a passer. What's your
opinion on Garret Wilson. No, I'm with you on that one.

Speaker 3 (01:31:07):
I think Garrett Wilson's another guy that you know, when
he came out of Ohio State, we had these high
expectations for him, and you know he goes over one
thousand yards as a rookie. Interesting, I mean, he's been
over one thousand receiving yards every season of his career.
He already has more thousand yard seasons than Deebo Samuel
right in like half the time. But I also think,

(01:31:29):
you know, I don't know if it's because of quarterback
situation or the offense, or maybe we just sort of
over expected things from him.

Speaker 1 (01:31:38):
It feels like.

Speaker 3 (01:31:39):
Garrett Wilson is very close to his ceiling at this point.
He's the guy he's gonna get you. You know, between
one thousand, eleven hundred yards. He's gonna be somewhere between
you of five to seven touchdowns, that's generally up around
you know, ninety to one hundred catches. It's all fine
and good, but I think for what was the asking price,
at least earlier in his career, I think it was

(01:32:00):
sort of underwhelming.

Speaker 1 (01:32:02):
I think the expectations have come down.

Speaker 3 (01:32:04):
A little bit where now we're talking about him more
as kind of a high end wide receiver two than
before we had him as a wide receiver one. So
I think that sort of helped the price a little bit.
But you know, I think one I think we maybe
overinflated the expectations for him to begin with.

Speaker 1 (01:32:19):
And to your.

Speaker 3 (01:32:20):
Point about justin Fields, Fields, is that quarterback that we
like him as a fantasy quarterback for what he brings
We don't like him as a fantasy quarterback necessarily because
he's going to elevate the guys around him, you know.
We like that he's going to run with the football.
They'll get you those rushing touchdowns. But to this point,

(01:32:40):
as a passer, he has been underwhelming so far, right,
I mean his high watermark and touchdown passes was seventeen
his second year with the Bears. I mean, he's had
one season with twenty five hundred passing yards. And so
what we love is the fact that you can count
on he as a full time starter. You can get
seven eight hundred or more rushing yards out of justin Fields.

Speaker 1 (01:33:02):
But that does nothing for you if you.

Speaker 3 (01:33:04):
Have Garrett Wilson, right, you don't really get the benefit
of that.

Speaker 1 (01:33:08):
It's another you know, side notes to that.

Speaker 3 (01:33:10):
It's also why if I have Breecee Hall, I'm a
little bit concerned about that, right. I mean, instead of
maybe dumping it off to Breese Hall, for you know,
a quick pickup, Fields is likely to just tuck it
and take it himself, and so that takes some of
those targets away as well. So it's a thing where
I think for the Jets, I think they're they're hoping
they can unlock something with Fields and kind of get
that offense moving. But I don't know that it does

(01:33:33):
a ton for all the pieces around him. And so,
you know, if you're telling me I got to spend
a mid to late second round draft pick on Garrett Wilson,
I'm probably gonna say no thanks. If you're telling me
that I can get him somewhere the mid third round
or later, you know, maybe I'll consider it.

Speaker 2 (01:33:48):
At that point. Breesce Hall's certainly going to be a
topic of conversation on this show the rest of the summer,
because make a great point. I don't the price is falling,
and that's that's fun, But I don't know if we
should know a lot so much of his production was
the checkdown work that he got the last couple of years.
I am a little bit nervous myself, but yeah, the
Garrett Wilson thing is interesting. I think his price has

(01:34:10):
gotten more palatable. That makes me more likely to begin
on him. At the same time, you know, we saw
what Pickens did before before Russ Wilson took over last year,
and that worries me. That makes me nervous, all right, Well,
let's be done with the offseason moves before I let
you go. I know, I put on the show sheet, like, hey,
come up with one for every position, But just just
talk to me a little bit about some guys that

(01:34:32):
you've been chasing early in drafts, like, hey, I really
want to get this guy on my team, or maybe
I'll reach a little bit for this guy, and then
maybe on the other side of the coin, some guys
that you're fading because you think people are a little
too excited about him.

Speaker 1 (01:34:44):
Okay, So guys that I'm sort of chasing.

Speaker 3 (01:34:47):
I don't know if this is early in drafts necessarily,
but a couple of quarterbacks that I kind of like
in the later rounds and like, I'm not drafting these
guys as my every week starter, but certainly as upside guys.

Speaker 1 (01:34:56):
Hill Williams and Drake May and with I.

Speaker 3 (01:35:01):
So I went into last year he got drafted, and
everybody was really excited about Caleb Williams, and I was
sort of cautious about him and that, like I didn't
think in year one that he was going to go
out and do big things, right, Like everybody's still waiting
for the Bears to get their four thousand yard passer,
and you know, the expectation was that Caleb Williams is
going to be that guy. I still think he can

(01:35:22):
be that guy, but I never believed he was going
to be there in year one. Side note to that,
I feel like I got peer pressured so that by
the end of the summer, I was just like, Kaitleb
Williams is gonna be great. Like I think by the
end of the summer my bol predictions that he'd be
a top ten fantasy quarterback. And I feel like I
got peer pressured into doing that.

Speaker 1 (01:35:39):
But I always believed in year two was when you
would see the big progression.

Speaker 3 (01:35:43):
Now that was before I knew Ben Johnson was going
to take over as the head coach of the Chicago Bears.
I just felt like with a year under his belt,
with a front office that seemed determined to build around him,
it did seem like Williams was set for a progress
end year two. So they go out, they add Ben Johnson,

(01:36:03):
they draft Colston Lovelin, they draft Luther Burden, you know,
to replace Keenan Allen potentially. So I see the vision,
and I see that year under his belt, and I
see a quarterback that last year, even though he didn't
put up big week to week numbers, the one thing
he did well was protect the football right, just six interceptions,
very few of them in the back half of the season,

(01:36:23):
so he wasn't necessarily, you know, forcing the ball and
making questionable decisions. So now if he can sort of
incorporate that playmaking ability we saw at USC, then I
think we see him take a step forward.

Speaker 1 (01:36:34):
I think similarly with Drake May.

Speaker 3 (01:36:36):
Drake May's rookie season I think was one of those
like you had to actually see it for yourself kind
of things, because if you just looked at the stats,
there was nothing about it that made you believe this
is going to be the guy. But when you watched
him play, you're like, oh, I see what the Patriots
see in him. I understand why the Patriots drafted him
where they did. So, you know, I still think they

(01:36:58):
need help at wide receiver. I mean, I'm curious what
Stefan Diggs has left. I'm curious what Kyle Williams maybe
can bring because this is a franchise that, for all
the wonderful things they did during those twenty years with
Belichick and Brady, one thing they never really did well
was scout and develop wide receivers, So we'll see if
they can sort of break out of that. But I
do like where Williams and May are going in terms

(01:37:19):
of draft price.

Speaker 1 (01:37:20):
So if I'm gonna if.

Speaker 3 (01:37:21):
I'm gonna wait on a quarterback and maybe kind of
get a mid level guy as my QB one, I'm
also gonna turn around and get either Caleb Williams or
Drake May as sort of my upside QB too. So
those are guys that I kind of like. So here's
my guy that I'm avoiding. And this might sound hot
take ish and I could end up looking like a
complete idiot by midway through the season.

Speaker 2 (01:37:43):
I'm here for it.

Speaker 3 (01:37:44):
I don't want any part of Saquon Barkley this year,
at least not where, not where I've got to take
him right.

Speaker 1 (01:37:49):
And here's the thing.

Speaker 3 (01:37:50):
I understand why his ADP is what it is, right,
I get it. Incredibly talented running back who had a
phenomenal season last year ran for for two thousand yards.
And it's that there that makes me nervous because when
you go back and you look at the history of
players who ran for two thousand yards, their follow up
years have not been particularly great.

Speaker 1 (01:38:12):
I went and mapped it out.

Speaker 3 (01:38:13):
I think there's you know, eight guys that have done
it previously, and you look at their follow up seasons,
the average falloff is about nine hundred yards rushing. That's
been the difference between the two. But I'll add this
year because one of those seasons was Terrell Davis, who

(01:38:33):
ended up getting hurt really really early. I think he
only played like two or three games and then got hurt.
So even if you take out his season, it's still
about eight hundred and fifty yards difference on average between
you know, a two thousand yard season and the follow
up season. The other part of this is, and I
can look this up real quick, but like, I think
there were twenty six games last year across the NFL

(01:38:56):
where a player ran for one hundred and forty or
more yards. Saquon had seven of those, right, So I
mean more than a quarter of those were one person. Like,
all of these things screamed regression at this point, and
so what I think happens is if if Saquon falls off,
let's you know, let's say he rushes for thirteen hundred yards,

(01:39:17):
even fourteen hundred yards, right, that's a good season. That's
a huge difference though, between what you were getting from
him last year versus this year, and so for him
to be going, as you know, the first running back
off the board or a top three pick, I think
a lot of folks are gonna be disappointed if history
repeats itself, because you look at that list. I mean there,

(01:39:38):
I know the argument is gonna be Saquon's built different. Yeah, well,
I mean so so was Adrian Peterson, so was Derek Henry.
These are guys who were quote unquote built different and
still had major falloff in their their follow up years
to the two thousand yard season. So again, look, we
could get to October and I could look like a
complete dunce because I said this, But I just I

(01:40:00):
I don't like what history has said about Saquon's chances
to repeat this year.

Speaker 2 (01:40:05):
You know, I think I saw somewhere that he had
almost five hundred touches last year including the playoffs. That's
an insane number.

Speaker 1 (01:40:11):
That's a lot, you.

Speaker 2 (01:40:13):
Gosh, you know, and the guys that I remember, just
anecdotally off the top of my head that had workloads
like that, Jamal Anderson, Larry Johnson, they both broke down
very quickly after that. And it's not like Saquon hasn't
had a little bit of a history of lower leg
injuries either. So I just boys scared the crap out
of me. But he's also the kind of guy who,

(01:40:34):
you know, again, I'm scared not to have any of
them because of what he did last year, right, But
you know, he made a great point like all of
those big rushing games, not only that, but most of
the long rushing like like he had all these long
fifty and sixty yard rushing touchdowns. That's a very volatile
thing that could come back to earth as well. So, Okay,

(01:40:56):
anybody else you want to talk about before I let
you go?

Speaker 3 (01:41:00):
No, I think I think that's sort of it. I
I'm very curious about the Bears. I think I think
they're they're kind of an interesting group this year, just
with Ben Johnson being there. I'm I'm sort of curious
about I'm curious about the Patriots in the sense of
I just want to see what they're able to develop
around Drake May. But other than that, I think I'm
just like you know, I'm this is our dead period, right,

(01:41:22):
It's this is the quiet the calm before the storm
a little bit, because about a month from now, training
camps will be open and then a lot of this
theoretical stuff sort.

Speaker 1 (01:41:31):
Of become less theoretical.

Speaker 3 (01:41:33):
I guess as we get more slow motion video of
guys in shorts and T shirts, we'll see we'll see
how that goes.

Speaker 2 (01:41:40):
Yeah, well, and like I said last week, we reserved
the right to change these opinions. In fact, we want
to change the opinions as we go through camp. But hey,
that's why we're seeing it right now at the beginning
of the middle of June. And that's part of the
reason I want to talk about last year so much
in the off season, because I think there's a lot
of valuable stuff because that gives us the context, the framework,

(01:42:00):
the foundation, whatever you want to call it, to then
begin assessing, Hey, what we're seeing in training camps. Is
it real? Is it coach speak? That kind of thing?
So all right, well, hey, this was awesome. I appreciate
you coming on, Marcus. I cannot wait to hang out
Expo and talk about peer pressure. If I put a shot,
usually will do it with me. So yeah, yeah, it

(01:42:20):
was a little bit there.

Speaker 3 (01:42:22):
So I speaking of which I mean, so, I you know,
I'm I'm from California born and raise your group here
what I want And I know it's not necessarily an
Ohio thing, but I want to try. And I may
regret saying this. I want to try a shot of
them alort. I don't know if there's somebody out there
who can make that happen. I don't want a whole bottle.

Speaker 1 (01:42:41):
I just I just I just want.

Speaker 3 (01:42:44):
I just want to know for myself what it's all about,
and I want to try it. I could very well
regret that after it's all said and done, but I'm
willing to take the leap.

Speaker 2 (01:42:54):
So yeah, I've heard enough about it that I'm curious,
but I also am scared. So maybe I'll want you
do it? How about that?

Speaker 3 (01:43:02):
I know, I mean, I get, I know it's a
Chicago thing, but Ohio's much closer to Chicago than Los Angeles.
Is maybe somebody could kind of facilitate this happening for me.

Speaker 2 (01:43:13):
I got this note in my brain. Now we're gonna,
we're gonna work on this. So all right, Well remind
everybody again where they can find you on socials and
where they can find your work, and I'll let you
get out of here. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:43:23):
Absolutely, most of it is either X or Blue Sky
and at Marcus g on both of those things there.
But you can check out the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast
twice a week. You can find that wherever you download
fine podcasts. And then starting July twelfth, you find me
on Sirius XM Saturday mornings from ten am to noon
Eastern Time, doing a fantasy live show with Chris Manzo.

(01:43:46):
So yeah, your set your DVRs whatever market calendars for
about a month from now, we'll be back on your
your satellite radio dials.

Speaker 2 (01:43:55):
Ten to twelve Eastern Yes. Oh that's an early one
for you.

Speaker 3 (01:44:00):
Uh yes, and no, I mean because I you know,
I have a six year old son, so I tend
to be up. I tend to be up at that
time anyway, and then it means that I'm done by
nine am.

Speaker 1 (01:44:11):
And I still have my whole Saturday what I want.

Speaker 2 (01:44:13):
So yeah, right on, all right, Well, hey, I'm looking
forward to August when we get to hang again. But
thank you so much for coming on the show. Like
I said, I was joking at the beginning how many
times Marcus has come on, but I appreciate it. Because
I've never once texted Marcus and said, hey, do you
want to come on and he said no, I don't
have time for you. Every single time he says yes,
he comes on, he delivers. Thank you so much and

(01:44:35):
we appreciate that, my listeners and certainly me as well.
So thank you again, Marcus Grant. That's m A r.
C ASG on Twitter. Don't forget to find and find
him over there. And as he always says, a little
stirred up mom and pop operation named the NFL Network,
you can find him on the television too. So anyway,
thank you again for Marcus, and that'll do it for
another week of discussions with Drew. Well, thank you again

(01:45:07):
to Marcus. You know, like I said, he's never turned
me down and he's always been there for the auction brief.
So please support Marcus like he supported the show. He's
m ARCASG on Twitter, and you know he's got a
baseball show talking about the Dodgers. He's got a podcast
with NB Fantasy Life, he's going to be on Serious.
The dude's all over the place. I mean, let's face it,

(01:45:28):
Marcus doesn't need our support. I need your support. I'm
just kidding. I love Marcus and I'm so happy that
he's supported the show. He's been a huge cornerstone of
what I've done going forward in this industry. So thank
you again to Marcus. Great discussions with Drew. It's been
a fun episode. And you know, one of the things
that Marcus brought up that I didn't even talk about
during I can't believe it. I talked long enough, I

(01:45:50):
should have hit this. But one of the things that
Marcus brought up that I think is a great point
is that with rookies a lot of times, what we
can do is we can count on other people to
get impatient with them, and then we can be there
to snap them up. You know, my buddy Joayne McFarland
over at Fantasy Life has this utilization tool, and this
tool is awesome. Go check it out. I think it's
free right now, I pay for it. But point being,

(01:46:13):
he has everything on there, snaps, routes, targets, per out run,
you know, market share, all the things that you need
to know to know whether or not a player is
actually playing. Sometimes you can see a rookie get three
catches for twenty yards on a touchdown. You get all
excited and you realize he was, you know, on the
field for ten snaps, so you have to get into

(01:46:34):
those numbers and then you strike during the season. I
think that might be the most optimal way to play.
It is not necessarily to draft them so heavily. We
draft a couple of them, but we wait for others
to get impatient, and then we use our skills on
the waiver wire to swoop in there and snap these
rookies up at the right time when they're starting to

(01:46:56):
show the signs of a breakout, when they're going into
their buy those are the times you want to snap
them up and put them on your team and hope
for that second half search. But that's going to do
it for this week's show. Thank you so much for
being here. I love doing this show, and I forget
how much I love it when you know when it's
my off season, because this is a typically a draft

(01:47:17):
centered show. So I'm going to do a little bit
more with trying to get on the mic during the season.
But yeah, you know this is this is fun for me.
I have a blast. I hope you enjoyed the analogy
this week, and I hope you remember it. I hope
it pops into the back of your mind because it's
not just a fantasy football thing, it's a life thing too.
We can always try to fix the leaks in our game,

(01:47:39):
and I think it helps us in everything we do,
and I certainly think it's going to help us in
our drafts this summer. So thank you again to a guest,
Marcus Grant from the NFL Network for his generous time.
Thank you so much for listening to me on the
Auction Brief. Don't forget you can find me on Twitter
at Drew Davenport FF. I'm also the fantasy football lawyer
on TikTok as well as Patreon. Just four bucks a

(01:48:00):
month to get in there and get some important auction
to help before you go into your drafts this summer.
Thank you so much for joining me. That's going to
do it for this week. The Auction Brief is adjourned
and I am out.

Speaker 3 (01:48:12):
The Auction Brief is adjourn that'll do it for this
week's episode. See you next time on the Auction Brief.

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