August 13, 2025 • 41 mins
In this week's episode of Bet On It direct from Las Vegas: Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek break down the preseason odds for each of the AFC divisions, offer their personal AFC division winners, potential award winners, bet against teams and more!
Introduction 00:00
AFC East Futures 01:14
AFC West Futures 07:58
AFC North Futures 13:05
Marco on Burrow MVP? 18:35
AFC South Futures 20:15
KIV on Line Shopping 23:13
AFC Bet On/Bet Against Teams 25:39
AFC Make/Miss Playoffs 30:17
KIV Chiefs HOT Take! 34:20
AFC Super Bowl Champion 36:20
Introduction 00:00
AFC East Futures 01:14
AFC West Futures 07:58
AFC North Futures 13:05
Marco on Burrow MVP? 18:35
AFC South Futures 20:15
KIV on Line Shopping 23:13
AFC Bet On/Bet Against Teams 25:39
AFC Make/Miss Playoffs 30:17
KIV Chiefs HOT Take! 34:20
AFC Super Bowl Champion 36:20
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
With the NFL season right around the corner, what AFC
future bets did you be getting in right now?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Well, you're about to find out next. I'm bet on it.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Kelly Stewart here joined by Marco DiAngelo and Yanni. The
Greek boys football season is finally here.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I'm so excited.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
We're gonna discuss some division winners today, as well as
some teams to play on or against in the AFC,
some teams to make or miss the playoffs, of course,
some season win totals, and those Super Bowl champions.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Let's get right into it.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
VR and Iron lockstep early on here in the AFC.
So I'm gonna let him go first. Actually I lied,
all three of us. We've got a trio of three
of us, all like the Buffalo Bills. V. I'll let
you have the floor first, and here what you have
to say, I mean, this is unprecedentedly chalky and disgusting.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
I'm ashamed of us already, I know.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
But the thing is, you got to try to cash
a ticket. And the probability is that the Bills are
going to win this division. I think greater than minus
three hundred. I think there's even greater than a seventy
five percent chance they win this division. I mean, this
is a team that won thirteen games in twenty twenty four,
and if you look at the division, they're the only
team that had a positive point differential. Everyone else allowed
(01:35):
more points than they scored. So that's the first till
everyone else has to climb. Then they've overtaken the Patriots
a long time ago and they are now that team
that wins it every year. They're going for six three
in the AFC East. I don't see anything changing. You
have MVP quarterback in Josh Allen. Now last year was
(01:59):
his story type of season. He's going to regress off that.
It's it's going to be almost impossible to sustain that
kind of production. But you don't need to in that
division to still win it easily because they just have
so many weapons on offense. They're first in the AFC
as far as point differential goes, only second to the
Detroit Lions in the entire NFL. The only problem. The
(02:21):
only issue is health because they're not they don't have
a lot of depth at the skill position level. So
as long as they stay healthy again, this team is
only going forward because they have an upgraded defense. Now
they added some depth there. They added Joey Bosa, Hairstin,
Tradavius White like this. Now they're not just that offensive team,
(02:41):
they're just as loaded on the defense's side. They were
number one in turnover ratio. I don't love that at
plus twenty four, So they got a little bit lucky.
And the number two team was Pittsburgh and they had
eight less So shows you just how good of a
season Buffalo had. Like they did everything right and they
only gave away two fumbles in the entire season. So again,
(03:03):
their luck probably won't be that good, but it doesn't
need to be to win that division because you look
at everyone else. You look at New England. I know
everyone's excited about them with Josh McDaniel's coming back as
the OC, but you've got a new head coach in Brabele.
That's gonna take a little bit a while. And even
though they spent a lot of money in the offseason,
I think the most of the entire NFL and have
an easy schedule, they only won four games last year,
(03:24):
So how forward of the leaper are gonna make? What
are they gonna win eight more games than last year?
Nine more games than last year. That's not gonna happen Miami,
same thing. They only won eight games in twenty twenty four.
The offensive line is a concern to his durability is
a concern. He's gonna have weapons, but the defense allowed
least points in the division. I don't think they're gonna
have that kind of year again. Like I think they're
(03:47):
gonna take a step backwards. The Jets turned rebuilding mode
pretty much each and every year now with a new
head coach, rookie in fields of the production. Offense is
going to be a problem. They have an average defense.
I just don't see who's gonna overtake the bills. They
would have to Josh Allen would have to get injured,
they would have to have just so much bad happen
(04:08):
to them to not win this division. I'm surprised they're
not minus four hundred where they win it eight out
of ten times, because I think it's right around there.
It should be Marco.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
As you and I mentioned, there's a value here, right
VRE said, hey, they should be priced even higher. But
the reality is, even though there is no value and
we're probably not going to bet it, you can't make
a case for the Jets.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Maybe you could make a case for the Pats. You
mentioned in your notes that the Jets are undervalued eighteen
to one. I mean, the Jets aren't.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Gonna win this division.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
The Jets aren't gonna win this division. But well, I'm
talking about where the Jets are undervalue. This is all
the Bills division. Don't get me wrong. You know in
minus three hundred, I agree with Ace. It should be
higher than that. So if you want to say, hey,
there's a little bit of value here, you can do it.
You know, in horse racing, we have a thing where
they're called bridge jumpers, where they'll bet a horse that
(05:11):
can't lose. They'll bet them to show and take that
two ten return, you know, five percent on their money.
The problem or not the problem. The beauty of that
is their money's only tied up for two minutes, okay,
and then they get to get that five percent return
you're talking about. If you want to lay with Buffalo
for minus three hundred, you're laying your money for the
(05:35):
old football season before you can cash that. Now, for
people to do this for a living, and you know,
have your bank rolls, you can make a significant wager
and tie up that kind of money for the average better.
They can't. What do you know, how much money can
you tie up on, you know, for a bet that
you're going to only win, you know, laying three to one.
They're not going to do it. Where I see value
(05:58):
is I think the Jets are going to be under priced.
And I'm talking about on a weekly basis with the
points spread. I don't think the Jets are gonna be
as bad as everybody thinks they are. And there's a
couple of reasons for that. Everybody, well, oh, Aaron Rodgers
is gone. They couldn't get the job done with Aaron Rodgers.
How are they gonna get it done with Justin Fields? Well,
Aaron Rodgers was hurt the first year he was there,
(06:20):
and the second year he had a slow start because
he missed the entire season the year before. And he's
ancient okay in age, and we'll talk about him later
now help being with the Steelers, But Justin Field, speaking
of the Steelers, didn't get a fair shake last year.
He was four and two in the six games he
started for the Steelers. I think he's going to the
(06:43):
Jets with house money, basically because the expectations aren't high.
You're coming in after Aaron Rodgers. If Aaron Rodgers couldn't
get it done, what are the expectations are you. I
think he really has a chance to excel. And if
you look at this Jets team going back to the
last five years, they were a team that a lot
of people thought were just a quarterback away from being
(07:05):
a super Bowl contender, and they thought once they got
Aaron Rodgers that would happen. They have a mobile quarterback
that again was handcuffed with an offensive system when he
was at Chicago, which was a nightmare. He actually was
starting to show some signs of improvement in Pittsburgh, but
because they had the commitment to Russell Wilson, he never
(07:27):
got the chance. I think they are going to be
a betterable team this year. Plus the points you're going
to get them into dog a lot because of the undervalue,
I think they're going to surprise some themes.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
That's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
We're finding value in this division.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
All right, let's move along to the AFC West.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Now.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I think it's funny none of us pick the Chiefs here,
and I think that kind of is for obvious reasons.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Chiefs Chiefs achievements price to win this.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Division in the last five years, very very telling in
that because I think we're going to see two teams
take a step forward. I'll talk about one of them
and I'll let the boys talk about the other. John
Murray told me back in June when we did a
episode of Kelly and Murray that Broncos got bet to
win this division. They got bet to go over their
(08:16):
season win. Told him, I thought, well, well, wait a minute,
I thought the Broncos kind of superseded some expectations.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
That is coming from the girl with the Broncos helmet
behind her.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
But I do think bo Nix in his second year
is going to be very interesting with Sean Payton. I
think my biggest caveat here and why I thought, all right,
let's find a cheap team that can go had toe
to toe with the Chiefs, and everyone seems to like
the Chargers. Obviously, I'll get into that Chiefs disdain and
value later on in the show, as I know the
(08:45):
comments are going to want to say. And by the way,
while we're on that subject, give us the like hint
that subscribe button and if you think we're dead wrong,
tell us in the comments if you agree with us,
we like those comments as well. Vi Are I'm gonna
let you go first. Talk to me about the Chargers
and why you don't think it's gonna be the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, I really do think this Charger team is live
and if you know, things fall right for them, I
think they're gonna surprise a lot of people. They won
the eleven games in twenty twenty four, they had a
better point differential than the division winner Kansas City. That
offense scored the fifth most points in all of the AFC,
(09:24):
and the defense allowed the least points in all of football. Okay,
they made the playoffs in hardball's very first year. A
Bear has even more offensive weapons this time around. Now
the defense. All the talk is they lost Bosa, but
they're still solid. They're still solid. If you look at
their strength of schedule too, it's average mid level. It's
(09:47):
not as if they have the toughest strength of schedule
this year. Now. Kansas City is still the division favorite, obviously,
but with an revamped offensive line, sixth toughest strength of
schedule and all had the fifth best point differential in
the AFC in twenty twenty four, so even though they
represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, they were only
fifth in point differential. Got a little bit lucky there.
(10:09):
Now you look at Denver bo Nicks second season, more
weapons but little regressions. Should be expected from an offense
to score the most points in the division and the
defense that allowed the second least in all of the AFC.
But they benefited from an easy schedule last year, that's
for sure. You look at Vegas rebuilding mode, Carrol's first year.
(10:32):
Everybody knows about that Geno Smith, rookie running back. They
just need a lot of help. Only two teams scored
less points in the AFC than the Raiders, so they're
just way behind. And they were tied for second and
worse in turnover ratio. Zero wins in the division in
twenty twenty four. They posed absolutely zero threat. I like
the Chargers to overtake Kansas City, and they're giving me
(10:54):
three to one at that shot. Got to take it
at one in four times they surpassed KC.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Marco anything to add to the Chargers analysis from vr.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Oh Kelly, it's more where I'll go is I'll say
why I didn't take Denver. The narrative is Kansas City
is slipping back to the field and Denver and the
Chargers are moving closer forward. You're gonna be Team Harbaugh
or you're gonna be Team Peyton. The reason I think
you're gonna see a better stump or step forward from
(11:29):
the Chargers is this. They've got the veteran quarterback with
Justin Herbert versus bo Nicks. He had a great rookie season.
Can he duplicate that? I talked about it in the
other video that we did Sophomore Jinx. The rest of
the league has game film on him. Now, I think
(11:49):
you've got a veteran quarterback that remember with the old
coaching staff, and we made a lot of fun with
the you know, the gambling that he did and everything.
When I say gambling, the chances he took on fourth
downs and different things. This team was still very close
to getting over the hump. Now they've got a good
(12:11):
coach that is in his second year. And compare what
happened last year with Sean Payton. From year one to
year two, you saw the big jump up. You're gonna
see that big jump up this year with the Chargers,
and I think they have a better core in the
veteran quarterback to make a bigger leap. I think this
is the Chargers year to get it done.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
All right, Let's move along to the NFC North where
VR and I are in agreement here, and look, Ravens
pretty chalky, not horrifically chalky, but chalky enough that I
don't think I would actually get to the window with them.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's not so much to.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Play on the Ravens as I just don't see it
being the Steelers, who, by the way, Aaron Rodgers and
I are the same age. I know how I feel
just sitting in this chair these shows, let alone getting
hit by two hundred and fifty pound men. Let's talk
about Joe Burrow his sixth season running a little short
on time. I do believe Lamar has finally bought into
the system with Derrick Henry.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
By his side.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
VR, tell me if there's some value here in laying
the chalk with the Ravens.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Minus one sixty five now currently is pretty steep.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
A ton of value. KEL, And here's the key. Here's
what you got to remember. I know that many recreational
betters don't want to tie up their money for three
or four months at a minus one sixty. They don't
mind doing it at plus four hundred plus five hundred.
But the goal is to place good bets and move on.
And if you're bet sizing correctly based on your bankroll,
(13:44):
then you shouldn't be worried about tying up your money
long term. The only reason that becomes a problem is
if you're over betting your bank roll or you're underfunded.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Otherwise, you should want to place a bet where you're
getting the best of it, and right now the Ravens
at anything less than minus two hundred, he's giving you
the best of it. This is a team that won
twelve games in twenty twenty four. They were tied for
first in the AFC in point differential with the Bills.
Number one in yards per play? Was this Baltimore team? Okay,
(14:16):
they're the highest. At the end of the season, they
were my highest power rated team in the AFC. The
fact they didn't win the Super Bowl is irrelevant. This
is the NFL. They don't play seven game series. The
cream doesn't always rise to the top. There's a lot
of randomness in the sixty minute football game. But when
that season ended last year, Baltimore was the highest power.
There was no one in the AFC that was going
(14:37):
to be favored over Baltimore. Okay, they were a top
three offense and a top three defense, the most balanced
out of everyone that made the playoffs, and they're trying
to be the first team now in division history to
win it three straight. Shows you how competitive this division
has been. Hard Ball's now signed through twenty twenty eight.
There's comfort there. They return their offensive and defensive court,
(15:00):
so no new face is there. The defense was elite
and they just added more to it through the draft.
On offense, they're loaded. The only question mark is the
kicking game because Justin Tucker's finally going. But he's aged now,
so they're doing the right thing. You look at the
rest of the division because that's what you have to fade.
Cincinnati offense. Coton scored third most points in the AFC,
(15:24):
but they also allow the third most points in the AFC.
They got a new defensive coordinator and they picked up
some draft picks. But you're not tested yet, so you
can't take a flyer on them yet. I just don't
think going out on that risk curve the return is
good enough so far. Pittsburgh the end of the season.
You saw how they unfolded. They lost four straight. They
(15:46):
have a top ten toughest schedule in twenty twenty five,
and Aaron Rodgers isn't in his rookie season, so there's
gonna be questions weren't there with the age and durability. Finally,
Cleveland worst turnover ratio six more than the second worst,
so they should get a little more lucky this year.
But they won three games last season? How far are
(16:06):
they going to progress with the second toughest schedule in
all of football? How the Ravens aren't minus two hundred
is beyond me ton of value at anything less than that,
Ravens win this one easy, all.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
Right, Marco, tell me why you're being the contrarian here
and taking the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Well.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
To use one of your sayings, Kelly, I could have
been a chalk eating weasel and went with you.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Guys.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
I don't disagree that the Ravens aren't the best team
in the division, but you know, we want to find
some value, and I really do believe that the Cincinnati
Bengals present value. And what a said is one hundred
percent true. This team offensively is loaded. They are going
to put up this year. I think you're gonna be
(16:52):
talking about like video game numbers. Okay, with this offense.
The question mark was the defense last year. Yeah, they
made some improvements in the off season, you know, but
will those transform onto the field. We'll have to wait
and see. Obviously it can't be any worse than it was.
But what is going to be better is the start
(17:13):
of the season. If you remember the last few years,
the Bengals have dug themselves holes every year at the
beginning of the season. Whatever the reason was, they got
off the slow starts. Part of the reason a few
years ago Joe Burrow had his appendix taken out in
you know, the middle of summer and then wasn't ready
for the start training camp, missed valuable time. Slow start
(17:36):
last year he was coming off of season ending injury.
The year before there was Russ. He was one of
this coach doesn't like to play his starters in pre season,
so they never got hit the ground running. This year,
coming in what they do week one, starter saw time
they got the reps. They are making a concerted effort
(17:58):
to get off to a good start, not dig themselves
a whole, because at the end of the season everybody said,
you know one team you don't want to play in
the playoffs would be Cincinnati. Okay, you don't want to
face that offense. And no matter how bad the defense was,
playing that offense is a threat. The other thing, you
know what, Joe Burrow, I think this is his year,
(18:22):
and this is a spot where I am going to
give you a bonus play. I'm gonna take Cincinnati for
the division at plus two seventy five. But here's your
bonus play for the division. I'm taking Joe Burrow to
win the MVP this year. You can get him at
plus six hundred. Why Well, if everybody's right and this
(18:42):
defense is as bad as it they think it's gonna be,
and Joe Burrow's offense is as good as it is,
he's gonna light up the scoreboard and he's gonna carry
this team and he'll put up those video game numbers.
And yeah, when you talk MVP, what comes to mind.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, all of those guys
(19:06):
have won the MVPs in recent years. Okay, this is
a league that sometimes when they hand out these awards,
they'll give it to this somebody on the do factor
instead of giving it to a repeat and one thing
that other than Patrick Mahomes that Joe Burrow has in
his corner that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen don't have yet,
(19:27):
he's actually made it to a Super Bowl. I'll take
the Bengals plus money for the division, and I'll take
Joe Burrow MVP.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
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Speaker 2 (19:56):
And of course much much more.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
You to choose your act spurt or you can switch
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we are all in locks up here, and it makes
sense when we're all locks up on the chalk, but
now we're all in Lockstep on a dog, A plus
(20:20):
three fifty dog Marco. I'm gonna let you go first.
Tell me why we all like the Colts, because I
think we're taking some crazy bills here.
Speaker 5 (20:30):
I'll tell you what, Kelly, when I saw the sheet
and saw that we all agreed on the dog, it
scared the hell out. I mean, He'll be honestly, because
you're right to land on a logical choice. Makes sense
for all three of us to take the reach. On
the Colts where we don't even know.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
For sure who the starting quarterback is gonna be. You know, yeah,
they want it to be Anthony Richardson, but you know
he's been injury pro, he's underperformed. They got it an
insurance policy this year. And Daniel Jones personally, I think
at some point Daniel Jones is going to take over
the quarterback and duties of this team and it will
(21:10):
be his the rest of the season when he does it.
You look at the Colts and the reason I'm on
him is I think Houston's going to take a step back.
And we look at this Colts team in over the
last few years, they've been close. What they've missing was
a quarterback. Okay, they tried a couple of years when
(21:34):
they tried somebody at the end of their career. Rivers
come in here, Ryan, come in here. Then they went
the rookie route that didn't work out. I think one
of two things is going to happen. Either Anthony Richardson
finally has the light bulb go on and he gets
it and he stays healthy and everything's fine. I'll ride that.
(21:57):
Or Daniel Jones gets the shot in a new system.
He was in the Giants. We know what a nightmare
of that team has been over the last several years.
Getting a fresh start here, I think he's better suited
for this offense. This is a team that's got a
solid offensive line, they've got a good defense. If they
(22:18):
just get quality, consistent play at quarterback. I think they're
a playoff team out of this division. And once you
get into the playoffs, then anything can happen. I'll go
ahead and take the Colts plus the three point fifty
and let's see what happens as the season progresses. But wow,
all three of us on a dog, Kelly, how often
(22:39):
does that happen?
Speaker 1 (22:41):
It is not but the good news that you can
even get plus three seventy at the Westgate Super BOWLK
because I'm guessing that's where our social media producer John
Hoglan got that odd So definitely chop around, guys, and
that is really important when looking for these have multiple
books at your disposal.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
They're all going to move off what they need.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
You can find an extra ten twenty thirty forty cents
in some of these futures markets, so keep an eye there.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
I have much to.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
Add in addition to what Marco said, doesn't matter if
it's Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, I don't think so.
I think Shane Steichen is a great coach. They've got
an upgraded defense and a healthy offensive line.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
VR.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
I know you're gonna get into their schedule a little
bit more amongst the running game.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
I mean they were in eight nineteen last year with
a minus fifty point differential, but this is a different
year altogether for them. They're gonna have the twelfth easiest schedule,
and I like what Marco said as far as the
quarterback situation. That's the problem. It's the inconsistency of Anthony
Richardson because he's got so.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Many weapons on the offensive side of the.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Board, got Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, a solid offensive line.
They should be better on the offensive side of the
bowl and I think they will improve this year. Defensively.
You have a defensive coordinator with unimproved defense. Based on
the players they picked up through the draft as well,
(24:05):
you know that they're going to be extra motivated this
year with the passing of ERSA. I just think this
is a team that's completely being overlooked and it's in
a weak division. And getting that plus three to fifty
is what is really attractive to me, because when I
look at Houston, they won their third straight title in
twenty twenty four with ten wins, and they have a
(24:26):
solid defense. They allowed the least amount of points. But Shroud,
he's gonna regress this year for sure. I expect because
of that week offensive line, new offensive coordinator, a toughest schedule.
It's not going to be easy for this Houston team
to repeat Jacksonville. They only won four games last year
because the injury to Trevor Lawrence. A lot of weapons
(24:48):
he returns. I even took a small flyer on him
at MVP at fifty to one. I don't suggest you do,
because the defense is still weak. Only one team allowed
more points than them in the AFC, so they need
the shirt. Add up, I think you have Tennessee, who
only won three games in twenty twenty four, they allowed
the most points defensively, second worst toneover ratio in the
entire NFL. They got cam Ward for it, but it's
(25:11):
gonna take a while. They're in rebuild mode. Colts are
live at plus three fifty. I think anything better than
plus two two fifty is good. At three fifty, I
think that's why we're all jumped on the same side.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Okay, let's keep this train moving. We're gonna talk about
teams we're betting on or against. VR and Marco have
one in common. Marco, I'm gonna let you go first.
Let's talk about why you don't like my Denver Broncos
or your Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 4 (25:43):
You see, I can see how I'm going against my
Pittsburgh Steelers. I have no problem going against the hometown team.
I look every year when we enter the NFL season,
what teams are getting the hype in the talk and
where the excitement is in off season. Okay, and the
remarkable surge that you saw last year from the Denver
(26:07):
Broncos in year two of Sean Payton being the head coach,
everybody automatically, you know, assumes it's gonna be another step
forward this year. I'm not sure about that. I talked
about that with the Broncos and can bow Nicks carry
that into the you know, his second season. That's a
team that's gotten a lot of hype. That's why I
(26:28):
think they're gonna be overpriced. Will they be a good team, Yeah? Probably.
Are they gonna contend with the Chargers to try to
overthrow the Kansas City Chiefs? Yeah, but I'm talking on
a week to week basis. I think they're going to
be priced overvalued. I think when they are a favorite,
they're gonna be laying too many points. When they're an underdog,
(26:50):
you're not going to be getting what you should be
getting with them. So I'm looking to go against Denver.
And as far as the Steelers go, was there any
more drama than any team in the off season? Then
where's Aaron Rodgers gonna be? Where's Aaron Rodgers going? Is
he signing with Pittsburgh? Is he not signing with Pittsburgh?
That was his last hope, but he still didn't sign.
(27:11):
He waited and waited, and finally he signed. Well, now
the Steelers, everybody remember how good of a start they
had last year and then it all come crumbling down.
When Russell Wilson flamed out at the end of the season.
So everybody's assuming that won't happen this year. It wasn't
just Russell Wilson where the problems were last year. You
(27:33):
know one of them. They got rid of pickets. He's
no longer there, he's at Dallas. But I just don't
see this team being able to do what they're gonna
need to do regarding the points spread on a week
to week basis, They're gonna be just like I said
with Denver. When they are a favorite, they'll be too
big of a favorite. When they're a dog, they're gonna
be undervalued. Let's wait and see what Aaron Rodgers does.
(27:56):
But I'm gonna tell you first few weeks of the season,
I'm gonna be looking for the spots to go against
the Steelers on a weekly basis.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Yanni, add to what Marco said about the Steelers and
why you are saying they are also a bet against
team for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
They got very lucky last year. Number they were plus
sixteen in turnover ratio, putting them in second best in
all of the NFL. They have the top ten toughest schedule,
like we touched on multiple times. They really outperformed the
betting market last year. Pay attention to at they win
eleven and six against the spread. I don't see that
(28:37):
happen in this year, especially with the Aaron Rodgers text
that's going to be attached to that Pittsburgh Steelers team.
I think they're a fade. You saw them crumble down
the stretch when they needed to win some ballgames, and
I think they're gonna have some problems in that division,
especially with the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah, I think it's a
fade of the Steelers. Got Baltimore there, you have since there.
(29:00):
I think since Pitzer is gonna have a lot of problems,
bade Pittsburgh to look for spots throughout the season as well,
especially early on, because if Rogers gets banged up, it's
a different story. They may be on their valued at
that point, but to start the season it's a different story. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
As if we haven't talked about the Buffalo Bills enough,
they are going to be a bet on team for me.
They exceeded their season win total for eight straight seasons
now under McDermott, So keep an eye on betting their
season win total over does that mean, though, that there
is value week to week.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I actually do think so.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
One of their biggest issues has been their defense, and
this season they used all five draft picks to fill
those holes. We know, as we've talked about with several
other teams, it is Super Bowl or bust. I think
Buffalo is one of those bet on teams again for
the season. And if you missed the analysis for the
first fifteen minutes of the show while we sat there
(29:56):
and talked about the Buffalo Bills, scroll on back and
listen over there.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Now we're gonna get into the playoffs. I asked the
guys that said.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
Hey, I need a plus money team to either make
the playoffs or a heavy favorite to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I'm gonna let Marco go first.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Marco, tell me why you like the Texans plus one
twenty five not to make the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
Oh, it's simple, you know, we all like the Colts.
We think the Colts have a big shot to win
that division because I expect regression from the Texans and
this is a division playing and simple two teams aren't
coming out of here for the playoffs. Okay, it's gonna
be the division winner and that's it, and I don't
think the Texans win the division, so I don't see
(30:43):
them making the playoffs as a wild card. You've got
too many other divisions that have much better teams that
are gonna have better records. We talked about probably two
teams out of the AFC North with Baltimore in Sincy.
We got Buffalo will be one and done there. But
you've got Kansas City, the Broncos, and the Chargers. All
(31:06):
three of those teams could make the playoffs. So where's
Houston gonna fit in if they don't win their division.
That's why I'm going with Houston not to make the
playoffs at plus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
Okay, VR, you also like Houston not to make the playoffs.
But before you add on to what Marco said, please
let us know what you have going on for.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Football season over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Yeah, you want even want to jump on board twenty
twenty five. Really excited for NFL and college football right now.
I have up my futures package which includes NFL and
college football combo over about nine or ten already in there,
including a five percent big move. The rest will be
four percents because only best bets are going into that package.
(31:53):
You'll get a lot more between now and kickle. Otherwise,
it's week by week looking forward said and especially make
sure bet on it each and every week. I will
be sharing a ton of gold. I'll have a lot
throughout the season. So excited for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
We are excited for that gold, those steam plays that
we love to see every single week. But first we
are You have to tell me why you think the
Texans take a step back. As Marco mentioned, we all
like the Colts and that usually correlates with the teams
above them stepping back, but nobody's.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Really talked about the Jags.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Do we also think the Jags are going to regress
even further than they did the last two seasons.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
No, not really, because I'm hoping a healthy Trevor Lawrence
improves that team. But I just think they're just way behind,
like they have a lot to make up. Having won
only four games last year, this Texas team was as
the Texans, howarres phony is a three dollars bill. I
mean again, they won ten games, they won the division,
but they had a negative zero point differential. That's not
(32:59):
like you play that teason out ten thousand times. They're
not going to win ten games with a zero point
differential in the NFL. So they really got lucky. That's
not going to happen back to back year, especially when
you have an eighth toughest schedule in all of football. Again,
a healthy Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. You know, Tennessee, what's
Tennessee really gonna do? They didn't. They were the worst
(33:19):
team in all football. But they're excited with the number
one draft pick. And then you have the Colts, which
I think are on the up. So this is gonna
be a big test for Texas. And I just don't
think they're that team. They're not that team that's going
to like take over and now be dominant in that
in that division. So fade the Texans look for spots
(33:40):
throughout the season as well, especially early on another overvalued
team going into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
All right, and everybody to break themselves. Do not freak
out because I can hear the comments section.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Now Colleys are just a Chiefs hater. That is not
the case.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
But I do think there is a lot of value
here in betting Chiefs not to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
Plus three forty.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Not only is their schedule just absolutely brutal, they play
nine playoff teams in seven primetime games. Also, let's take
a step back. When's the last time Kansas City lost
to Super Bowl? Oh, that's right to the Bucks. And
then they followed it up with an eight to nine season.
I will say this, I was reading Mark Lawrence a
(34:26):
couple of weeks ago, and he almost scared me off
this bet. With the stat forty of the last fifty
seven Super Bowl losers have still made the playoffs the
following season. But as we've spoken about the AFC West
and the Broncos and Chargers both looking very competitive, I'm
gonna take the Chiefs and Andy Reid to take that
step backwards and not make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Time to get into those Super Bowl champions.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
Marco DiAngelo, I'm gonna let you go first, but please
let everybody.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Know what you have going on on at wager Talk.
In terms of specials, Well.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
We've got a special going right now. You can get
the entire football season, college and pro through the Super Bowl,
not only me, but pairing up we're packaging it with
Ben Burns. You can buy me by myself. That's still
available But if you want to get the top two
football handicappers from last year college and football combined money won.
(35:26):
Ben was number one, I was number two. You can
get both of us for fourteen and ninety eight dollars.
That's a discount off of buying us individually, and it
also has a bonus. You'll pick up a seven day
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for Baseball, WNBA, any other plays that we have. Whenever
(35:50):
we have a big play or something and you want
to grab it, you'll have seven opportunities to do it
with a seven day flex package that you can stretch
that out whenever you like. So check that out over
at wager talk dot com right now.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
Okay, Marco, tell me why you like the Cincinnati Bengals
to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Well, Kelly, I was between two. I could have went
with the Chargers or I could have went with Cincinnati.
Those were my two picks for the long shot to
win the Super Bowl. But I have been talking the
Bengals the entire show, So why stop now. I'm gonna
go ahead and take the Bengals in. As I mentioned
when I talked about him for MVP, the one thing
(36:34):
that Joe Burrow does have on his resume that Josh
Allen and Lamar Jackson doesn't. Is he was able to
beat the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC playoff game
to get to the Super Bowl, where those other guys
have not yet. I think they have a big shot
this year. But if you want to split the bet,
(36:55):
I have no problem taking the Bengals at twenty two
to one for the Super super Bowl and to take
the Chargers at plus twenty five to one. I think
the AFC is more wide open and more vulnerable. I
know everybody likes the top two Buffalo and Buffalo in Baltimore,
(37:18):
but Kansas City is still there, which gives value because
people still believe in them. In Patrick Mahomes and the
Swifties had to get one swiftly in on the show
The Swifties.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
Just as you were saying that, I was on Instagram
and I noticed Travis Keltic's GQ.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Shoot.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Yeah, anyway, VR, you're going to take the Chargers since
Marco was undecided, So tell me why you think. John
Harbaugh excuse me, Jim Harbaugh, good grief, Jim Harbaugh is
going to win a Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (37:51):
And I just put a dying right now on the
Chargers at twenty five to one. They're now twenty four
plus twenty four to seventy five at Sports four to
one one. So if you're looking at your odd screen
and I like your Chargers play, and that's what I
gave out, I like Cincinnati as well, Marco, and that
was a short play. Burrow to win the MVP at
five to one or greater, and you could get six
to one out there. That scares me a little bit.
(38:12):
Cincinnati's probably worth a sprinkle. But I really do think
this Chargers team should not be twenty five to one Baltimore.
It's better than six to one. Surprises me as well.
To be honest with you, I thought they should be
a little higher than that, And in fact, I'm seeing
Baltimore at seven to one in some spots. But at
twenty five to one, again, this doesn't eleven win football team.
(38:35):
Last year, they had a better point differential than Kansas City.
I'll repeat that Kansas City lost the Super Bowl last year.
Like Kelly gave that trend may make the playoffs, but
I do think they're going to take a step back.
This is one of the most potent defenses in all
of football. I think the overreaction to the Bosa loss
isn't warranted because again they're just loaded everywhere there, and
(38:59):
I think the offense takes another step forward. Hopefully they
protect the football as well as last season. They have
a tough schedule this year, I mean an average schedule
this year compared to a tougher schedule prior. So I
think the Chargers again at twenty five to one, just
get into the playoffs and with all that equity, we
should be able to make some money off then.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
And that's exactly why VR. I like the Denver Broncos
at twenty five to one. We mentioned Bo nicks possible
sophomore slump, and I think that he is going to
be able to come out of this under Sean Payton
and not regress. Another thing that I think is we're
going to see a better defense. Yes, they had one
(39:40):
of the best defenses in the league last year, so
that helped Bo Knicks in making some of those rookie mistakes.
But this defense is going to be a top three
defense in the league. I know last year they had
no running game and it was so frustrating with Javonte
Williams in the backfield, but they got two rookie whe
receivers to take his place, a great offensive line for
(40:04):
those two, and bow Nicks to play behind. And speaking
of positive regression, which has been the name of the
show Broncos last season one in six and one score games,
we're gonna see if things don't start to go their way.
Are the Broncos gonna win the Super Bowl? No, of
course they're not going to. Is there value in them
at twenty five to one? Yes, I actually think the
Baltimore Ravens are finally gonna get the monkey off their
(40:26):
back and win the Super Bowl this year. But it's
not a lot of things there, guys, just my personal opinion.
Let's bring back into Marco and VR say goodbye to you, guys.
I won't see you guys for a whole week. If
you guys want to catch the NFC version of this show,
you can watch it right here on the wager Talking
(40:47):
YouTube channel. And if you're into betting college football, you
can check out our college football preview of bet on
It both up right now on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Guys will be back for NFL Week one for the
NFL edition to bet On.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
Of course, we'll be back next week.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
I'll be live from Ireland to talk about those five
college football games.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Until next week, let's bet on it.
With the NFL season right around the corner, what AFC
future bets did you be getting in right now?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Well, you're about to find out next. I'm bet on it.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Kelly Stewart here joined by Marco DiAngelo and Yanni. The
Greek boys football season is finally here.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I'm so excited.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
We're gonna discuss some division winners today, as well as
some teams to play on or against in the AFC,
some teams to make or miss the playoffs, of course,
some season win totals, and those Super Bowl champions.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
Let's get right into it.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
VR and Iron lockstep early on here in the AFC.
So I'm gonna let him go first. Actually I lied,
all three of us. We've got a trio of three
of us, all like the Buffalo Bills. V. I'll let
you have the floor first, and here what you have
to say, I mean, this is unprecedentedly chalky and disgusting.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
I'm ashamed of us already, I know.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
But the thing is, you got to try to cash
a ticket. And the probability is that the Bills are
going to win this division. I think greater than minus
three hundred. I think there's even greater than a seventy
five percent chance they win this division. I mean, this
is a team that won thirteen games in twenty twenty four,
and if you look at the division, they're the only
team that had a positive point differential. Everyone else allowed
(01:35):
more points than they scored. So that's the first till
everyone else has to climb. Then they've overtaken the Patriots
a long time ago and they are now that team
that wins it every year. They're going for six three
in the AFC East. I don't see anything changing. You
have MVP quarterback in Josh Allen. Now last year was
(01:59):
his story type of season. He's going to regress off that.
It's it's going to be almost impossible to sustain that
kind of production. But you don't need to in that
division to still win it easily because they just have
so many weapons on offense. They're first in the AFC
as far as point differential goes, only second to the
Detroit Lions in the entire NFL. The only problem. The
(02:21):
only issue is health because they're not they don't have
a lot of depth at the skill position level. So
as long as they stay healthy again, this team is
only going forward because they have an upgraded defense. Now
they added some depth there. They added Joey Bosa, Hairstin,
Tradavius White like this. Now they're not just that offensive team,
(02:41):
they're just as loaded on the defense's side. They were
number one in turnover ratio. I don't love that at
plus twenty four, So they got a little bit lucky.
And the number two team was Pittsburgh and they had
eight less So shows you just how good of a
season Buffalo had. Like they did everything right and they
only gave away two fumbles in the entire season. So again,
(03:03):
their luck probably won't be that good, but it doesn't
need to be to win that division because you look
at everyone else. You look at New England. I know
everyone's excited about them with Josh McDaniel's coming back as
the OC, but you've got a new head coach in Brabele.
That's gonna take a little bit a while. And even
though they spent a lot of money in the offseason,
I think the most of the entire NFL and have
an easy schedule, they only won four games last year,
(03:24):
So how forward of the leaper are gonna make? What
are they gonna win eight more games than last year?
Nine more games than last year. That's not gonna happen Miami,
same thing. They only won eight games in twenty twenty four.
The offensive line is a concern to his durability is
a concern. He's gonna have weapons, but the defense allowed
least points in the division. I don't think they're gonna
have that kind of year again. Like I think they're
(03:47):
gonna take a step backwards. The Jets turned rebuilding mode
pretty much each and every year now with a new
head coach, rookie in fields of the production. Offense is
going to be a problem. They have an average defense.
I just don't see who's gonna overtake the bills. They
would have to Josh Allen would have to get injured,
they would have to have just so much bad happen
(04:08):
to them to not win this division. I'm surprised they're
not minus four hundred where they win it eight out
of ten times, because I think it's right around there.
It should be Marco.
Speaker 1 (04:18):
As you and I mentioned, there's a value here, right
VRE said, hey, they should be priced even higher. But
the reality is, even though there is no value and
we're probably not going to bet it, you can't make
a case for the Jets.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
No, the Dolphins.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Maybe you could make a case for the Pats. You
mentioned in your notes that the Jets are undervalued eighteen
to one. I mean, the Jets aren't.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Gonna win this division.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
The Jets aren't gonna win this division. But well, I'm
talking about where the Jets are undervalue. This is all
the Bills division. Don't get me wrong. You know in
minus three hundred, I agree with Ace. It should be
higher than that. So if you want to say, hey,
there's a little bit of value here, you can do it.
You know, in horse racing, we have a thing where
they're called bridge jumpers, where they'll bet a horse that
(05:11):
can't lose. They'll bet them to show and take that
two ten return, you know, five percent on their money.
The problem or not the problem. The beauty of that
is their money's only tied up for two minutes, okay,
and then they get to get that five percent return
you're talking about. If you want to lay with Buffalo
for minus three hundred, you're laying your money for the
(05:35):
old football season before you can cash that. Now, for
people to do this for a living, and you know,
have your bank rolls, you can make a significant wager
and tie up that kind of money for the average better.
They can't. What do you know, how much money can
you tie up on, you know, for a bet that
you're going to only win, you know, laying three to one.
They're not going to do it. Where I see value
(05:58):
is I think the Jets are going to be under priced.
And I'm talking about on a weekly basis with the
points spread. I don't think the Jets are gonna be
as bad as everybody thinks they are. And there's a
couple of reasons for that. Everybody, well, oh, Aaron Rodgers
is gone. They couldn't get the job done with Aaron Rodgers.
How are they gonna get it done with Justin Fields? Well,
Aaron Rodgers was hurt the first year he was there,
(06:20):
and the second year he had a slow start because
he missed the entire season the year before. And he's
ancient okay in age, and we'll talk about him later
now help being with the Steelers, But Justin Field, speaking
of the Steelers, didn't get a fair shake last year.
He was four and two in the six games he
started for the Steelers. I think he's going to the
(06:43):
Jets with house money, basically because the expectations aren't high.
You're coming in after Aaron Rodgers. If Aaron Rodgers couldn't
get it done, what are the expectations are you. I
think he really has a chance to excel. And if
you look at this Jets team going back to the
last five years, they were a team that a lot
of people thought were just a quarterback away from being
(07:05):
a super Bowl contender, and they thought once they got
Aaron Rodgers that would happen. They have a mobile quarterback
that again was handcuffed with an offensive system when he
was at Chicago, which was a nightmare. He actually was
starting to show some signs of improvement in Pittsburgh, but
because they had the commitment to Russell Wilson, he never
(07:27):
got the chance. I think they are going to be
a betterable team this year. Plus the points you're going
to get them into dog a lot because of the undervalue,
I think they're going to surprise some themes.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
That's what I mean.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
We're finding value in this division.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
All right, let's move along to the AFC West.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Now.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I think it's funny none of us pick the Chiefs here,
and I think that kind of is for obvious reasons.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
Chiefs Chiefs achievements price to win this.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Division in the last five years, very very telling in
that because I think we're going to see two teams
take a step forward. I'll talk about one of them
and I'll let the boys talk about the other. John
Murray told me back in June when we did a
episode of Kelly and Murray that Broncos got bet to
win this division. They got bet to go over their
(08:16):
season win. Told him, I thought, well, well, wait a minute,
I thought the Broncos kind of superseded some expectations.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
That is coming from the girl with the Broncos helmet
behind her.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
But I do think bo Nix in his second year
is going to be very interesting with Sean Payton. I
think my biggest caveat here and why I thought, all right,
let's find a cheap team that can go had toe
to toe with the Chiefs, and everyone seems to like
the Chargers. Obviously, I'll get into that Chiefs disdain and
value later on in the show, as I know the
(08:45):
comments are going to want to say. And by the way,
while we're on that subject, give us the like hint
that subscribe button and if you think we're dead wrong,
tell us in the comments if you agree with us,
we like those comments as well. Vi Are I'm gonna
let you go first. Talk to me about the Chargers
and why you don't think it's gonna be the Denver Broncos.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
Yeah, I really do think this Charger team is live
and if you know, things fall right for them, I
think they're gonna surprise a lot of people. They won
the eleven games in twenty twenty four, they had a
better point differential than the division winner Kansas City. That
offense scored the fifth most points in all of the AFC,
(09:24):
and the defense allowed the least points in all of football. Okay,
they made the playoffs in hardball's very first year. A
Bear has even more offensive weapons this time around. Now
the defense. All the talk is they lost Bosa, but
they're still solid. They're still solid. If you look at
their strength of schedule too, it's average mid level. It's
(09:47):
not as if they have the toughest strength of schedule
this year. Now. Kansas City is still the division favorite, obviously,
but with an revamped offensive line, sixth toughest strength of
schedule and all had the fifth best point differential in
the AFC in twenty twenty four, so even though they
represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, they were only
fifth in point differential. Got a little bit lucky there.
(10:09):
Now you look at Denver bo Nicks second season, more
weapons but little regressions. Should be expected from an offense
to score the most points in the division and the
defense that allowed the second least in all of the AFC.
But they benefited from an easy schedule last year, that's
for sure. You look at Vegas rebuilding mode, Carrol's first year.
(10:32):
Everybody knows about that Geno Smith, rookie running back. They
just need a lot of help. Only two teams scored
less points in the AFC than the Raiders, so they're
just way behind. And they were tied for second and
worse in turnover ratio. Zero wins in the division in
twenty twenty four. They posed absolutely zero threat. I like
the Chargers to overtake Kansas City, and they're giving me
(10:54):
three to one at that shot. Got to take it
at one in four times they surpassed KC.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Marco anything to add to the Chargers analysis from vr.
Speaker 4 (11:05):
Oh Kelly, it's more where I'll go is I'll say
why I didn't take Denver. The narrative is Kansas City
is slipping back to the field and Denver and the
Chargers are moving closer forward. You're gonna be Team Harbaugh
or you're gonna be Team Peyton. The reason I think
you're gonna see a better stump or step forward from
(11:29):
the Chargers is this. They've got the veteran quarterback with
Justin Herbert versus bo Nicks. He had a great rookie season.
Can he duplicate that? I talked about it in the
other video that we did Sophomore Jinx. The rest of
the league has game film on him. Now, I think
(11:49):
you've got a veteran quarterback that remember with the old
coaching staff, and we made a lot of fun with
the you know, the gambling that he did and everything.
When I say gambling, the chances he took on fourth
downs and different things. This team was still very close
to getting over the hump. Now they've got a good
(12:11):
coach that is in his second year. And compare what
happened last year with Sean Payton. From year one to
year two, you saw the big jump up. You're gonna
see that big jump up this year with the Chargers,
and I think they have a better core in the
veteran quarterback to make a bigger leap. I think this
is the Chargers year to get it done.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
All right, Let's move along to the NFC North where
VR and I are in agreement here, and look, Ravens
pretty chalky, not horrifically chalky, but chalky enough that I
don't think I would actually get to the window with them.
Speaker 2 (12:50):
It's not so much to.
Speaker 1 (12:51):
Play on the Ravens as I just don't see it
being the Steelers, who, by the way, Aaron Rodgers and
I are the same age. I know how I feel
just sitting in this chair these shows, let alone getting
hit by two hundred and fifty pound men. Let's talk
about Joe Burrow his sixth season running a little short
on time. I do believe Lamar has finally bought into
the system with Derrick Henry.
Speaker 2 (13:12):
By his side.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
VR, tell me if there's some value here in laying
the chalk with the Ravens.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Minus one sixty five now currently is pretty steep.
Speaker 3 (13:22):
A ton of value. KEL, And here's the key. Here's
what you got to remember. I know that many recreational
betters don't want to tie up their money for three
or four months at a minus one sixty. They don't
mind doing it at plus four hundred plus five hundred.
But the goal is to place good bets and move on.
And if you're bet sizing correctly based on your bankroll,
(13:44):
then you shouldn't be worried about tying up your money
long term. The only reason that becomes a problem is
if you're over betting your bank roll or you're underfunded.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
That's it.
Speaker 3 (13:55):
Otherwise, you should want to place a bet where you're
getting the best of it, and right now the Ravens
at anything less than minus two hundred, he's giving you
the best of it. This is a team that won
twelve games in twenty twenty four. They were tied for
first in the AFC in point differential with the Bills.
Number one in yards per play? Was this Baltimore team? Okay,
(14:16):
they're the highest. At the end of the season, they
were my highest power rated team in the AFC. The
fact they didn't win the Super Bowl is irrelevant. This
is the NFL. They don't play seven game series. The
cream doesn't always rise to the top. There's a lot
of randomness in the sixty minute football game. But when
that season ended last year, Baltimore was the highest power.
There was no one in the AFC that was going
(14:37):
to be favored over Baltimore. Okay, they were a top
three offense and a top three defense, the most balanced
out of everyone that made the playoffs, and they're trying
to be the first team now in division history to
win it three straight. Shows you how competitive this division
has been. Hard Ball's now signed through twenty twenty eight.
There's comfort there. They return their offensive and defensive court,
(15:00):
so no new face is there. The defense was elite
and they just added more to it through the draft.
On offense, they're loaded. The only question mark is the
kicking game because Justin Tucker's finally going. But he's aged now,
so they're doing the right thing. You look at the
rest of the division because that's what you have to fade.
Cincinnati offense. Coton scored third most points in the AFC,
(15:24):
but they also allow the third most points in the AFC.
They got a new defensive coordinator and they picked up
some draft picks. But you're not tested yet, so you
can't take a flyer on them yet. I just don't
think going out on that risk curve the return is
good enough so far. Pittsburgh the end of the season.
You saw how they unfolded. They lost four straight. They
(15:46):
have a top ten toughest schedule in twenty twenty five,
and Aaron Rodgers isn't in his rookie season, so there's
gonna be questions weren't there with the age and durability. Finally,
Cleveland worst turnover ratio six more than the second worst,
so they should get a little more lucky this year.
But they won three games last season? How far are
(16:06):
they going to progress with the second toughest schedule in
all of football? How the Ravens aren't minus two hundred
is beyond me ton of value at anything less than that,
Ravens win this one easy, all.
Speaker 1 (16:20):
Right, Marco, tell me why you're being the contrarian here
and taking the Bengals.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Well.
Speaker 4 (16:26):
To use one of your sayings, Kelly, I could have
been a chalk eating weasel and went with you.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
Guys.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
I don't disagree that the Ravens aren't the best team
in the division, but you know, we want to find
some value, and I really do believe that the Cincinnati
Bengals present value. And what a said is one hundred
percent true. This team offensively is loaded. They are going
to put up this year. I think you're gonna be
(16:52):
talking about like video game numbers. Okay, with this offense.
The question mark was the defense last year. Yeah, they
made some improvements in the off season, you know, but
will those transform onto the field. We'll have to wait
and see. Obviously it can't be any worse than it was.
But what is going to be better is the start
(17:13):
of the season. If you remember the last few years,
the Bengals have dug themselves holes every year at the
beginning of the season. Whatever the reason was, they got
off the slow starts. Part of the reason a few
years ago Joe Burrow had his appendix taken out in
you know, the middle of summer and then wasn't ready
for the start training camp, missed valuable time. Slow start
(17:36):
last year he was coming off of season ending injury.
The year before there was Russ. He was one of
this coach doesn't like to play his starters in pre season,
so they never got hit the ground running. This year,
coming in what they do week one, starter saw time
they got the reps. They are making a concerted effort
(17:58):
to get off to a good start, not dig themselves
a whole, because at the end of the season everybody said,
you know one team you don't want to play in
the playoffs would be Cincinnati. Okay, you don't want to
face that offense. And no matter how bad the defense was,
playing that offense is a threat. The other thing, you
know what, Joe Burrow, I think this is his year,
(18:22):
and this is a spot where I am going to
give you a bonus play. I'm gonna take Cincinnati for
the division at plus two seventy five. But here's your
bonus play for the division. I'm taking Joe Burrow to
win the MVP this year. You can get him at
plus six hundred. Why Well, if everybody's right and this
(18:42):
defense is as bad as it they think it's gonna be,
and Joe Burrow's offense is as good as it is,
he's gonna light up the scoreboard and he's gonna carry
this team and he'll put up those video game numbers.
And yeah, when you talk MVP, what comes to mind.
Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, all of those guys
(19:06):
have won the MVPs in recent years. Okay, this is
a league that sometimes when they hand out these awards,
they'll give it to this somebody on the do factor
instead of giving it to a repeat and one thing
that other than Patrick Mahomes that Joe Burrow has in
his corner that Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen don't have yet,
(19:27):
he's actually made it to a Super Bowl. I'll take
the Bengals plus money for the division, and I'll take
Joe Burrow MVP.
Speaker 1 (19:36):
Get seven days of unlimited access or flex picks for
just sixty nine dollars unlocked seven days of all access
picks or flex picks for just sixty nine bucks. Guys,
that is less than ten dollars a day for all
of the NonStop action you're gonna get NFL, MLB, UFC, WNBA, soccer, golf.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
And of course much much more.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
You to choose your act spurt or you can switch
things up daily with your flex access. This is the
unlimited deal for the fans who want it all. All right, guys,
we are all in locks up here, and it makes
sense when we're all locks up on the chalk, but
now we're all in Lockstep on a dog, A plus
(20:20):
three fifty dog Marco. I'm gonna let you go first.
Tell me why we all like the Colts, because I
think we're taking some crazy bills here.
Speaker 5 (20:30):
I'll tell you what, Kelly, when I saw the sheet
and saw that we all agreed on the dog, it
scared the hell out. I mean, He'll be honestly, because
you're right to land on a logical choice. Makes sense
for all three of us to take the reach. On
the Colts where we don't even know.
Speaker 4 (20:49):
For sure who the starting quarterback is gonna be. You know, yeah,
they want it to be Anthony Richardson, but you know
he's been injury pro, he's underperformed. They got it an
insurance policy this year. And Daniel Jones personally, I think
at some point Daniel Jones is going to take over
the quarterback and duties of this team and it will
(21:10):
be his the rest of the season when he does it.
You look at the Colts and the reason I'm on
him is I think Houston's going to take a step back.
And we look at this Colts team in over the
last few years, they've been close. What they've missing was
a quarterback. Okay, they tried a couple of years when
(21:34):
they tried somebody at the end of their career. Rivers
come in here, Ryan, come in here. Then they went
the rookie route that didn't work out. I think one
of two things is going to happen. Either Anthony Richardson
finally has the light bulb go on and he gets
it and he stays healthy and everything's fine. I'll ride that.
(21:57):
Or Daniel Jones gets the shot in a new system.
He was in the Giants. We know what a nightmare
of that team has been over the last several years.
Getting a fresh start here, I think he's better suited
for this offense. This is a team that's got a
solid offensive line, they've got a good defense. If they
(22:18):
just get quality, consistent play at quarterback. I think they're
a playoff team out of this division. And once you
get into the playoffs, then anything can happen. I'll go
ahead and take the Colts plus the three point fifty
and let's see what happens as the season progresses. But wow,
all three of us on a dog, Kelly, how often
(22:39):
does that happen?
Speaker 1 (22:41):
It is not but the good news that you can
even get plus three seventy at the Westgate Super BOWLK
because I'm guessing that's where our social media producer John
Hoglan got that odd So definitely chop around, guys, and
that is really important when looking for these have multiple
books at your disposal.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
They're all going to move off what they need.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
You can find an extra ten twenty thirty forty cents
in some of these futures markets, so keep an eye there.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
I have much to.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
Add in addition to what Marco said, doesn't matter if
it's Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones, I don't think so.
I think Shane Steichen is a great coach. They've got
an upgraded defense and a healthy offensive line.
Speaker 2 (23:21):
VR.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
I know you're gonna get into their schedule a little
bit more amongst the running game.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23:26):
I mean they were in eight nineteen last year with
a minus fifty point differential, but this is a different
year altogether for them. They're gonna have the twelfth easiest schedule,
and I like what Marco said as far as the
quarterback situation. That's the problem. It's the inconsistency of Anthony
Richardson because he's got so.
Speaker 2 (23:41):
Many weapons on the offensive side of the.
Speaker 3 (23:43):
Board, got Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, a solid offensive line.
They should be better on the offensive side of the
bowl and I think they will improve this year. Defensively.
You have a defensive coordinator with unimproved defense. Based on
the players they picked up through the draft as well,
(24:05):
you know that they're going to be extra motivated this
year with the passing of ERSA. I just think this
is a team that's completely being overlooked and it's in
a weak division. And getting that plus three to fifty
is what is really attractive to me, because when I
look at Houston, they won their third straight title in
twenty twenty four with ten wins, and they have a
(24:26):
solid defense. They allowed the least amount of points. But Shroud,
he's gonna regress this year for sure. I expect because
of that week offensive line, new offensive coordinator, a toughest schedule.
It's not going to be easy for this Houston team
to repeat Jacksonville. They only won four games last year
because the injury to Trevor Lawrence. A lot of weapons
(24:48):
he returns. I even took a small flyer on him
at MVP at fifty to one. I don't suggest you do,
because the defense is still weak. Only one team allowed
more points than them in the AFC, so they need
the shirt. Add up, I think you have Tennessee, who
only won three games in twenty twenty four, they allowed
the most points defensively, second worst toneover ratio in the
entire NFL. They got cam Ward for it, but it's
(25:11):
gonna take a while. They're in rebuild mode. Colts are
live at plus three fifty. I think anything better than
plus two two fifty is good. At three fifty, I
think that's why we're all jumped on the same side.
Speaker 1 (25:23):
Okay, let's keep this train moving. We're gonna talk about
teams we're betting on or against. VR and Marco have
one in common. Marco, I'm gonna let you go first.
Let's talk about why you don't like my Denver Broncos
or your Pittsburgh Steelers.
Speaker 4 (25:43):
You see, I can see how I'm going against my
Pittsburgh Steelers. I have no problem going against the hometown team.
I look every year when we enter the NFL season,
what teams are getting the hype in the talk and
where the excitement is in off season. Okay, and the
remarkable surge that you saw last year from the Denver
(26:07):
Broncos in year two of Sean Payton being the head coach,
everybody automatically, you know, assumes it's gonna be another step
forward this year. I'm not sure about that. I talked
about that with the Broncos and can bow Nicks carry
that into the you know, his second season. That's a
team that's gotten a lot of hype. That's why I
(26:28):
think they're gonna be overpriced. Will they be a good team, Yeah? Probably.
Are they gonna contend with the Chargers to try to
overthrow the Kansas City Chiefs? Yeah, but I'm talking on
a week to week basis. I think they're going to
be priced overvalued. I think when they are a favorite,
they're gonna be laying too many points. When they're an underdog,
(26:50):
you're not going to be getting what you should be
getting with them. So I'm looking to go against Denver.
And as far as the Steelers go, was there any
more drama than any team in the off season? Then
where's Aaron Rodgers gonna be? Where's Aaron Rodgers going? Is
he signing with Pittsburgh? Is he not signing with Pittsburgh?
That was his last hope, but he still didn't sign.
(27:11):
He waited and waited, and finally he signed. Well, now
the Steelers, everybody remember how good of a start they
had last year and then it all come crumbling down.
When Russell Wilson flamed out at the end of the season.
So everybody's assuming that won't happen this year. It wasn't
just Russell Wilson where the problems were last year. You
(27:33):
know one of them. They got rid of pickets. He's
no longer there, he's at Dallas. But I just don't
see this team being able to do what they're gonna
need to do regarding the points spread on a week
to week basis, They're gonna be just like I said
with Denver. When they are a favorite, they'll be too
big of a favorite. When they're a dog, they're gonna
be undervalued. Let's wait and see what Aaron Rodgers does.
(27:56):
But I'm gonna tell you first few weeks of the season,
I'm gonna be looking for the spots to go against
the Steelers on a weekly basis.
Speaker 1 (28:04):
Yanni, add to what Marco said about the Steelers and
why you are saying they are also a bet against
team for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3 (28:13):
They got very lucky last year. Number they were plus
sixteen in turnover ratio, putting them in second best in
all of the NFL. They have the top ten toughest schedule,
like we touched on multiple times. They really outperformed the
betting market last year. Pay attention to at they win
eleven and six against the spread. I don't see that
(28:37):
happen in this year, especially with the Aaron Rodgers text
that's going to be attached to that Pittsburgh Steelers team.
I think they're a fade. You saw them crumble down
the stretch when they needed to win some ballgames, and
I think they're gonna have some problems in that division,
especially with the Cincinnati Bengals. Yeah, I think it's a
fade of the Steelers. Got Baltimore there, you have since there.
(29:00):
I think since Pitzer is gonna have a lot of problems,
bade Pittsburgh to look for spots throughout the season as well,
especially early on, because if Rogers gets banged up, it's
a different story. They may be on their valued at
that point, but to start the season it's a different story. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:15):
As if we haven't talked about the Buffalo Bills enough,
they are going to be a bet on team for me.
They exceeded their season win total for eight straight seasons
now under McDermott, So keep an eye on betting their
season win total over does that mean, though, that there
is value week to week.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I actually do think so.
Speaker 1 (29:35):
One of their biggest issues has been their defense, and
this season they used all five draft picks to fill
those holes. We know, as we've talked about with several
other teams, it is Super Bowl or bust. I think
Buffalo is one of those bet on teams again for
the season. And if you missed the analysis for the
first fifteen minutes of the show while we sat there
(29:56):
and talked about the Buffalo Bills, scroll on back and
listen over there.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Now we're gonna get into the playoffs. I asked the
guys that said.
Speaker 1 (30:05):
Hey, I need a plus money team to either make
the playoffs or a heavy favorite to miss the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I'm gonna let Marco go first.
Speaker 1 (30:16):
Marco, tell me why you like the Texans plus one
twenty five not to make the playoffs.
Speaker 4 (30:22):
Oh, it's simple, you know, we all like the Colts.
We think the Colts have a big shot to win
that division because I expect regression from the Texans and
this is a division playing and simple two teams aren't
coming out of here for the playoffs. Okay, it's gonna
be the division winner and that's it, and I don't
think the Texans win the division, so I don't see
(30:43):
them making the playoffs as a wild card. You've got
too many other divisions that have much better teams that
are gonna have better records. We talked about probably two
teams out of the AFC North with Baltimore in Sincy.
We got Buffalo will be one and done there. But
you've got Kansas City, the Broncos, and the Chargers. All
(31:06):
three of those teams could make the playoffs. So where's
Houston gonna fit in if they don't win their division.
That's why I'm going with Houston not to make the
playoffs at plus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
Okay, VR, you also like Houston not to make the playoffs.
But before you add on to what Marco said, please
let us know what you have going on for.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
Football season over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 3 (31:31):
Yeah, you want even want to jump on board twenty
twenty five. Really excited for NFL and college football right now.
I have up my futures package which includes NFL and
college football combo over about nine or ten already in there,
including a five percent big move. The rest will be
four percents because only best bets are going into that package.
(31:53):
You'll get a lot more between now and kickle. Otherwise,
it's week by week looking forward said and especially make
sure bet on it each and every week. I will
be sharing a ton of gold. I'll have a lot
throughout the season. So excited for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
We are excited for that gold, those steam plays that
we love to see every single week. But first we
are You have to tell me why you think the
Texans take a step back. As Marco mentioned, we all
like the Colts and that usually correlates with the teams
above them stepping back, but nobody's.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
Really talked about the Jags.
Speaker 1 (32:30):
Do we also think the Jags are going to regress
even further than they did the last two seasons.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
No, not really, because I'm hoping a healthy Trevor Lawrence
improves that team. But I just think they're just way behind,
like they have a lot to make up. Having won
only four games last year, this Texas team was as
the Texans, howarres phony is a three dollars bill. I
mean again, they won ten games, they won the division,
but they had a negative zero point differential. That's not
(32:59):
like you play that teason out ten thousand times. They're
not going to win ten games with a zero point
differential in the NFL. So they really got lucky. That's
not going to happen back to back year, especially when
you have an eighth toughest schedule in all of football. Again,
a healthy Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. You know, Tennessee, what's
Tennessee really gonna do? They didn't. They were the worst
(33:19):
team in all football. But they're excited with the number
one draft pick. And then you have the Colts, which
I think are on the up. So this is gonna
be a big test for Texas. And I just don't
think they're that team. They're not that team that's going
to like take over and now be dominant in that
in that division. So fade the Texans look for spots
(33:40):
throughout the season as well, especially early on another overvalued
team going into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
All right, and everybody to break themselves. Do not freak
out because I can hear the comments section.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
Now Colleys are just a Chiefs hater. That is not
the case.
Speaker 1 (33:56):
But I do think there is a lot of value
here in betting Chiefs not to make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
Plus three forty.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Not only is their schedule just absolutely brutal, they play
nine playoff teams in seven primetime games. Also, let's take
a step back. When's the last time Kansas City lost
to Super Bowl? Oh, that's right to the Bucks. And
then they followed it up with an eight to nine season.
I will say this, I was reading Mark Lawrence a
(34:26):
couple of weeks ago, and he almost scared me off
this bet. With the stat forty of the last fifty
seven Super Bowl losers have still made the playoffs the
following season. But as we've spoken about the AFC West
and the Broncos and Chargers both looking very competitive, I'm
gonna take the Chiefs and Andy Reid to take that
step backwards and not make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Time to get into those Super Bowl champions.
Speaker 1 (34:54):
Marco DiAngelo, I'm gonna let you go first, but please
let everybody.
Speaker 2 (34:58):
Know what you have going on on at wager Talk.
In terms of specials, Well.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
We've got a special going right now. You can get
the entire football season, college and pro through the Super Bowl,
not only me, but pairing up we're packaging it with
Ben Burns. You can buy me by myself. That's still
available But if you want to get the top two
football handicappers from last year college and football combined money won.
(35:26):
Ben was number one, I was number two. You can
get both of us for fourteen and ninety eight dollars.
That's a discount off of buying us individually, and it
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(35:50):
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to grab it, you'll have seven opportunities to do it
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that out whenever you like. So check that out over
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Speaker 1 (36:05):
Okay, Marco, tell me why you like the Cincinnati Bengals
to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
Well, Kelly, I was between two. I could have went
with the Chargers or I could have went with Cincinnati.
Those were my two picks for the long shot to
win the Super Bowl. But I have been talking the
Bengals the entire show, So why stop now. I'm gonna
go ahead and take the Bengals in. As I mentioned
when I talked about him for MVP, the one thing
(36:34):
that Joe Burrow does have on his resume that Josh
Allen and Lamar Jackson doesn't. Is he was able to
beat the Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC playoff game
to get to the Super Bowl, where those other guys
have not yet. I think they have a big shot
this year. But if you want to split the bet,
(36:55):
I have no problem taking the Bengals at twenty two
to one for the Super super Bowl and to take
the Chargers at plus twenty five to one. I think
the AFC is more wide open and more vulnerable. I
know everybody likes the top two Buffalo and Buffalo in Baltimore,
(37:18):
but Kansas City is still there, which gives value because
people still believe in them. In Patrick Mahomes and the
Swifties had to get one swiftly in on the show
The Swifties.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (37:31):
Just as you were saying that, I was on Instagram
and I noticed Travis Keltic's GQ.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Shoot.
Speaker 1 (37:37):
Yeah, anyway, VR, you're going to take the Chargers since
Marco was undecided, So tell me why you think. John
Harbaugh excuse me, Jim Harbaugh, good grief, Jim Harbaugh is
going to win a Super Bowl.
Speaker 3 (37:51):
And I just put a dying right now on the
Chargers at twenty five to one. They're now twenty four
plus twenty four to seventy five at Sports four to
one one. So if you're looking at your odd screen
and I like your Chargers play, and that's what I
gave out, I like Cincinnati as well, Marco, and that
was a short play. Burrow to win the MVP at
five to one or greater, and you could get six
to one out there. That scares me a little bit.
(38:12):
Cincinnati's probably worth a sprinkle. But I really do think
this Chargers team should not be twenty five to one Baltimore.
It's better than six to one. Surprises me as well.
To be honest with you, I thought they should be
a little higher than that, And in fact, I'm seeing
Baltimore at seven to one in some spots. But at
twenty five to one, again, this doesn't eleven win football team.
(38:35):
Last year, they had a better point differential than Kansas City.
I'll repeat that Kansas City lost the Super Bowl last year.
Like Kelly gave that trend may make the playoffs, but
I do think they're going to take a step back.
This is one of the most potent defenses in all
of football. I think the overreaction to the Bosa loss
isn't warranted because again they're just loaded everywhere there, and
(38:59):
I think the offense takes another step forward. Hopefully they
protect the football as well as last season. They have
a tough schedule this year, I mean an average schedule
this year compared to a tougher schedule prior. So I
think the Chargers again at twenty five to one, just
get into the playoffs and with all that equity, we
should be able to make some money off then.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
And that's exactly why VR. I like the Denver Broncos
at twenty five to one. We mentioned Bo nicks possible
sophomore slump, and I think that he is going to
be able to come out of this under Sean Payton
and not regress. Another thing that I think is we're
going to see a better defense. Yes, they had one
(39:40):
of the best defenses in the league last year, so
that helped Bo Knicks in making some of those rookie mistakes.
But this defense is going to be a top three
defense in the league. I know last year they had
no running game and it was so frustrating with Javonte
Williams in the backfield, but they got two rookie whe
receivers to take his place, a great offensive line for
(40:04):
those two, and bow Nicks to play behind. And speaking
of positive regression, which has been the name of the
show Broncos last season one in six and one score games,
we're gonna see if things don't start to go their way.
Are the Broncos gonna win the Super Bowl? No, of
course they're not going to. Is there value in them
at twenty five to one? Yes, I actually think the
Baltimore Ravens are finally gonna get the monkey off their
(40:26):
back and win the Super Bowl this year. But it's
not a lot of things there, guys, just my personal opinion.
Let's bring back into Marco and VR say goodbye to you, guys.
I won't see you guys for a whole week. If
you guys want to catch the NFC version of this show,
you can watch it right here on the wager Talking
(40:47):
YouTube channel. And if you're into betting college football, you
can check out our college football preview of bet on
It both up right now on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
Guys will be back for NFL Week one for the
NFL edition to bet On.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
Of course, we'll be back next week.
Speaker 1 (41:03):
I'll be live from Ireland to talk about those five
college football games.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Until next week, let's bet on it.
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Gregg Rosenthal and a rotating crew of elite NFL Media co-hosts, including Patrick Claybon, Colleen Wolfe, Steve Wyche, Nick Shook and Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic get you caught up daily on all the NFL news and analysis you need to be smarter and funnier than your friends.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com