August 13, 2025 • 51 mins
In this college football edition of Bet On It direct from Las Vegas: Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek break down the 2025 College Football season from a sports betting perspective, sharing their NCAAF best bets and predictions for the biggest conferences.
Join the crew every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the college football slate from a variety of betting angles.
Timestamps:
Intro 00:00
ACC Future Bet 1:20
Big 10 Future Bet 5:00
Big 12 Future Bet 10:30
Mountain West Future Bet 17:25
SEC Future Bet 20:45
Athletic Conference Future Bet 26:15
Sleeper teams to Make CFB Playoffs 28:34
Regular Season Win Totals 35:26
Team to Win National Championship 42:30
Join the crew every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the college football slate from a variety of betting angles.
Timestamps:
Intro 00:00
ACC Future Bet 1:20
Big 10 Future Bet 5:00
Big 12 Future Bet 10:30
Mountain West Future Bet 17:25
SEC Future Bet 20:45
Athletic Conference Future Bet 26:15
Sleeper teams to Make CFB Playoffs 28:34
Regular Season Win Totals 35:26
Team to Win National Championship 42:30
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
College football season is right around the corner. What futures
vets should you be getting in right now? You're about
to find out next on bet on It. What a
(00:24):
blast from the past. I guess we're gonna use our
same intro from twenty twenty one. That's right, guys, that's
the last time US three did a solo show together.
But we listened to everybody in the comments. We listened
to our wager talk, friends and family. We decided to
bring it back myself, Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, and Yanni
the Greek we call him Ace, we call him VR.
(00:46):
You're gonna hear me give him various names throughout the show.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
And this is our college football preview.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
We're gonna go through some of the powerful conferences, plus
a couple of extras.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
We're gonna talk national champions here at the end.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
We've got some regular season win totals for you guys
as well.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
We're gonna get right into it.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Marco di'angelo VR, You guys are gonna have to wait
in the wings because I'm gonna talk about the ACC first.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Because of alphabetic quarder.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Look, Clemson plus one oh five is the obvious choice here,
and I do think we will talk about those Miami
Hurricanes here later on in the regular season win segment,
but right now I think that there is a longer
shot to win the ACC and it's Louisville plus seven fifty.
As you guys know, they lost their quarterback to the NFL,
but they did get USC transfer Miller moss over twenty
(01:36):
five hundred passing yards eighteen touchdowns last year with the Trojans,
and what a better coach for him to play under
than Jeff Brohm.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
I think Jeff brom is gonna have one of the.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Best offenses we've seen in his tenure there at Louisville.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
And I look for the Cardinals not.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Only to win ten games this season, but to give
Clemson a run for their money on November fourteen. How
this is gonna kind of work for this previous shows,
I'm gonna give both guys a chance to interjected.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Marco thoughts on the ACC.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Well, I think the ACC is one of the more
wide open conferences, Kelly. I agree with you. There are
several teams that could make some noise. Moss a, you
know he's coming from USC. We'll see if the new
scenery is good for him. But you know, remember at
the end there at USC the old UNLV quarterback ended
(02:29):
up finishing up there the last couple of games last season,
So we'll see what happens with him. But if there's
a coach that can groom a quarterback, I agree with
you Jeff Baum is the guy that can get it done.
There's gonna be a lot of hype watching Bill Belichick
in the ACC this year and what he's gonna do
with North Carolina, So you might sign find value with
(02:52):
other teams because obviously he's gonna command some attention, and
then you always have the usual suspect of clin We
saw Clemson get off to a slower start last year.
They rallied got themselves into the championship game against SMU
last year, so maybe they can return to the glory days.
(03:13):
But too short of a price for me. So I
don't have a problem with your play, Kelly. As I said,
you like dogs. That is a live one. I gotta
give you that much.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
All right, V are your thoughts on the ACC before
we move on to the Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah, I mean Clemson's got some ground to make up
at the last season, but they aren't still the cream
of the crop, and when you look at them, they're
a top.
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Ten power rated team.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
The problem is, I think they're a little bit over
value coming into the season, having them as fourth right
now in the AP pole, sixth in the coaches poll.
I think that's a little bit too high for Clemson.
I think they should be a little bit lower than
that as far as the rankings go. But that's going
(03:59):
to play itself out as the season progresses. Again, Clemson's
coming off a season where they held opponents. They gave
up one hundred and seventy four total points overall. For
this I mean three hundred and nine total points overall,
had almost a two hundred point one hundred and fifty
point differential. Like the thing is, you know, can they
(04:21):
get back in where they were a few seasons ago.
I'm not sure this version is up the par Again.
I don't dislike your pick. I do think it's live
and again, even though Clemson's the cream of the crop,
I do think they're they're beatable. They're they're top ten,
maybe barely top ten. I don't think they're top five.
(04:44):
I don't see them as a top five team yet.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
High line I said we were going to Big twelve
next we're actually going to Big ten, which is who
Marco selected to break down Marco, there's on a four
horse race here in this conference.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
Well on Kelly, there's one team that stands out above
everybody else. Okay, and at his Penn State. They are
absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. This is
the best team on paper in the Big Ten. This
is the big the best team that James Franklin has
had at it since his tenure at Penn State. But
(05:20):
there's one problem. There's still James Franklin there. And that's
my biggest conferred. You know, if this offense doesn't wake
up this year with everything they've got, I don't know
that James Franklin will be there next year. They're there
to do it. Do I trust Penn State until he
shows me that he can open up an offense. No,
(05:43):
I don't, and not at the price that they're gonna be. Well,
then there's this next choice. You've got Ohio State, the
national champions. Ryan Day finally got that monkey off his back,
got the championship last year. This is a team though
if you look, man, they were dead made it with
talent that moved on to the NFL from last year,
(06:04):
and now we know that the big programs don't rebuild,
they just reload. So Ohio State's gonna be fine as
far as talent goes, but there's gonna be a little
bit of a learning curve blending all the new players
in there. And you know, it's the first season, first
show of the season. I got to get a fat
and sassy in there somewhere. If there's any team that
has a right to be a little bit of fat
(06:26):
and sassy coming into this season, it would be Ohio State.
After getting it done last year. Remember there was a
point of the season where people were calling for Ryan Day,
you know, job, and then they got the job done,
got themselves back in position after the devastating loss to Michigan,
laid in the season and got it done. So where
(06:47):
am I going to go for value? I think there's
a team that's getting overlooked and it was one of
the newcomers to the Big Ten last year, and that's Oregon. Now,
Oregon's never going to be totally overlooked. But as far
as coming into this season, it starts with Penn State
in Ohio State. So for me, The value to win
this conference lies with Oregon. They did well with their
(07:12):
reloading after last season. Last year had to be a
little bit of an adjustment for them, you know, having
to come and play those games you know in the
Midwest and you know on the East Coast where you've
got games where you know those West Coast teams. You
don't have to play some of these Big Ten teams
traveling to penn State and so forth. Those were going
(07:34):
to be tough spots doing it for the first time
and getting through it and now know what to expect.
That's got to be a big advantage coming into this year.
I'll take Oregon at plus three twenty to be the
sleeper to win the Big Ten. Sorry, James Franklin until
you show me, I can't do it with you. I'll
(07:55):
be rooting for you as a Pennsylvania native, but you
got to show me first.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Kelly, Yeah, Marco, I'm kind of with you here.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
VR.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
I'm curious if you like to do the same or
at least the groups that you work for.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
You kind of buck the narrative.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Right when I turn on Fox, ESPN, CBS, NBC, any
sports show, and the number one thing they're talking about
in May is how Penn State's gonna win the national championship.
I'm going, huh so your thoughts on this Big Ten Conference?
As I mentioned, I really I could make a case
for three or four teams here to win this one.
(08:29):
I think that there's a five dog race. Talk to
me about the Big Ten and maybe anything that Marco
didn't touch.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
On, you nailed it.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
And that's why I'm so excited about this college football
season is because if you don't have that one elite
team that's three plus points better than everybody else. In fact,
if you look at the top five teams in the country,
most respected power raiders are going to have them within
two points of each other. That's five or six teams
within two points of each other. At the top, you've
got to have Penn State in Ohio State, it's one A,
(08:56):
one B. Before the season starts, you know those two
right there. I think on on neutral field, you make
it a pick them and let the market decide who
they'd make the favorite. But who I think is being
overlooked is Michigan. I really think Michigan the price that
they're offering may be a little bit too good to
pass off because this is a possible playoff team and
(09:17):
they're giving you like thirty five forty to one in
the future. Again, I don't expect them to win the
national championship, but it's a team that can make a
run because they are being overlooked.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Loaded loaded loaded.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
On defense, especially on the line, Like it's going to
be tough to put up points against Michigan, and that's
going to give them time to figure out the quarterback
situation because you have the transfer and Nikey Keane and
then you have the freshman in Bryce Underwood who's supposed
to be a start. Those guys got time to figure
it out. Why this defense keeps the scoring low because
(09:51):
you have a running backs, that duo back there that
could get the job done and put up points for you.
So for me, I think Michigan's that team that's being
overlooked this year because of just how good Penn State is,
just how good Ohio State is, and I think they
could sneak up on some of these teams. And more importantly,
(10:13):
I think the price that you're getting on.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
Michigan makes sense.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
It's tough to choose between Penn State and Ohio State,
but for a long shot, I like Michigan.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Who let's see who you like for the Big Twelve.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
I'm sitting here looking at VR's notes and I'm going, man,
you've got k State, Texas Tech, Utah, Baylor, Arizona State
all basically in the running here to win the Big twelve. VR,
tell me why you think it's gonna be Arizona State
without Cam Skataboo.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Because they came out of nowhere last season, and I
think that's gonna like propel them forward. Here's why. It's
a conference that has a ton of parody. Forty three
percent of conference games last year were decided to bite
less than one one score or less, so there were
a lot of coin flip results last season. And then
(11:07):
you look at Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Utah,
and Baylor. That's five teams that are giving you between
plus five fifty and plus seven hundred, so again amongst each.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
Other, they're all almost a coin flip.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
But here's why I like Arizona.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
State because even though Skataboo was thirty nine percent of
the team's yardage from scrimmage, which tied him for fourth
in FBS, they return about seventy nine eighty percent of
their total production.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
That's the key.
Speaker 5 (11:40):
So I think you'll be able to fit.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
In running backs that Again, they're not going to be
Camp Scatiboo, but I think if you all you know
run like now, even in the NFL, we don't see
those backs that have fifteen hundred yards, you know, you
have multiple backs. I think Arizona State's going to have
to do something like that until someone steps forward and
really tries to replace them. But I think they'll be
(12:02):
fine just with that because they have an a Heisman
hopeful quarterback, they have weapons at wide receiver, offensive line
to protect them, and the bulk of the defense is
returning that only allows twenty two and a half points.
Like I think that the again, you're losing a huge piece.
But I think it's there's that overreaction. We talk about
(12:24):
it all the time in the NFL, like no players
worth as much as we think they're worth. We talk
about it with non quarterbacks. Skill position players are worth
very little to the betting line. And I think this
is an overreaction and I think Arizona State will prove
that they're just much better than these teams even though
they're all grouped up. I was ready to fire. Kansas
(12:46):
State's right there, Kansas State's right there. I think it's
gonna come down to who's healthier, you know, when it
comes to football, that's the key. Who's they able to
stay healthier or who gets some of the bounces, you know,
who has good luck or bad luck. But I do
like the favorite, Arizona State at plus five point fifty
to repeat all.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Right, I'll tell you this much.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
I have a little bit of faith in Kansas State,
but they kind of remind me of Penn State. A
lot of those sports writers seem to be well high
on my Wildcats, and that usually makes me, as a fan,
a little apprehensive. But I do think Avery Johnson now
getting all of those reps last year, finally getting to
be the starter, finally getting to spend time as the
(13:27):
first TERRN quarterback in this offense. He made a lot
of mistakes last year, and I think he can actually
start to capitalize on some of those. I know Dj
Giddens left for the NFL, but guess what we got.
Fillin's right behind him, another two headed monster in the
backfield there with Avery Johnson's best friend and Dylan Edwards.
And of course finally Kase got a five star recruit
and Link and Cure a lot of expectation there. Running
(13:49):
a two tight end set is going to be very,
very interesting. I'll say this. I did bet Baylor over
seven and a half wins and that was another team
that Vre mentioned. And I will get to Texas Tech
here at the end of the show, because of course
I had to pick some crazy long shot that's never
gonna hit. Marco your thoughts on the Big twelve. I
(14:09):
know you have some things to say about Utah later
on in the show as well.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
Yeah, I got a lot to say about Utah later
in the show. And just to rebuttal a little bit,
my concern with Arizona State with them is they caught
a lot of teams by surprise last year in VR
mentioned at and you had a coach that, can we
say it, he had probably one of the biggest set
of balls in college football, some of the trick plays
(14:35):
and stuff that he ran at different times in games.
I don't think that teams are going to get caught.
They're going to prepare for things from him. Remember, they
moved over from the Pac twelve just like Utah, and
I got a lot to say about Utah later, but
I expect Arizona State to take a step back, losing
(14:56):
that bit scataboo, the way that he did so many
things for that team, taking away that element of surprise
because new team in the conference from last year, and
then will the coach do the same thing and take
the same chances this year? Last year, nobody expected anything
from them. This year, there are expectations because of last
(15:17):
year's success, So maybe he won't gamble as much. That's
my concern there at Kelly, you know, I mean, if
there was ever a lock, if I could have put
a five percent out for this show, I would say,
Kelly's gonna give Kansas State luck. Okay, all right, you're
always going to give them love.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
Okay, let me give some let me say some things.
Their secondary is horrendous. I'm absolutely terrified about some of
their losses on defense. But I do think Austin Romaine
is going to be a great leader for them. And hey,
I'm so not sure who they're starting wide receivers are
going to be, because there's about six guys that are
mediocre at best.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Is that what you wanted me to say.
Speaker 4 (15:53):
The day that you would say somewhere.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
To go see this team in person. Okay, I'm gonna
give you that much.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
Yeah, I know, that's it. You gotta admit. Okay, when
it comes to k State and you can compare me
to Pittsburgh, I trash the Steelers more often on a
weekly basis. I don't know. And maybe Dan can check
the archives if you've ever actually on record how to
play against Kansas State.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
I didn't have a play on them. How about that?
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Well, okay, let's.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Get into this newest promotion we have over wager Talk.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
It's seven days of unlimited access flex picks only sixty
nine bucks.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
You get seven days of all access or flex picks
for just sixty nine dollars. That's less than ten dollars
a day for NonStop action. Get your expert picks from
your favorite wager Talk handicappers or everything preseason NFL, MLB, UFC, WNBA,
soccer and more. You can pick your go to expert
or switch things up with Flexpix All Access. All right, Marco,
(16:55):
We're gonna go right back to you. You've been to
the Mountain West for your proximity out there in Las Vegas.
This was a conference that I used to follow so much.
They're awesome football teams, but they just don't quite hit
the mark all the time. There's a team, though, in
the Mountain West that every once in a while gets
a lot of love. Right last year with Ashton john T,
(17:16):
they got a lot of hype surrounding him and a
lot of people say, you should have got into the
college football playoff.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I want to hear why you think they're gonna win
the Mountain West.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
Well, obviously they're the favorite to win the Mountain West
and they should be. The Mountain West this year is
really bad in my opinion, and one of the teams
that people are giving a little bit of love too.
I'm just gonna blow them up later in the show.
But I'm not gonna take Boise State at minus one
(17:46):
point fifty five to win the conference and really no
value there in that wager. So how can we make
Boise State that we want to take them and we
want to turn them into a plus proposition. Well, let's
just go ahead and take Boise State right now to
make the college football playoffs. The team is loaded, where
(18:07):
everybody else is either rebuilding or has a new coach.
I haven't seen more coaches carousel one season in a
particular conferences we have this year in the Mountain West.
So where are they gonna get beat from their schedule?
They always schedule somebody, you know, tough early. They have
that game this year again. But I see them running
(18:29):
the table after that. I see this team is eleven
and one. They win the Mountain West eleven and one,
that's going to get them into the college football playoffs.
And at plus one seventy two right now, you can
get them for the yes to make the playoffs. That's
where I'm gonna go with them now. As I said,
the team that people have a little bit of hype
(18:52):
and they have a new coach is UNLV. I'm going
to talk about them later in more detail when we
get to a segment here. But this is a team that, yeah,
UNLV came out of nowhere for the last two seasons.
But when you have success, what happens your small program.
You have success, you can kiss your coach goodbye. And
(19:12):
that's what's happened to UNLV. So not only does you
and LV have a new coach, they lost a lot
of people will go into that detail, and then they've
got a new coach, a coach that Kelly's familiar with
from his former coaching job a few years ago. I
wasn't impressed there when he was there. I'm not going
to be impressed here, and I'll explain why later. But
(19:35):
take Boise to make the playoffs. That's the best play
to make out of the Mountain.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Westr I can't really disagree with Marco here.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Do you have any thoughts on the Mountain West Conference?
Speaker 4 (19:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
And actually I don't mind laying some chalk for them
to win this conference because I do think the ROI
is worth tying up your money for a couple months.
They have one of the East faltest strength of schedules,
like in the top twenty as far as easy strength
of schedule goes. You got a potent offense with a
(20:07):
stud quarterback. You know, even though they got to replace
Jantia at running back, they have the pieces to do that.
They got two good guys back there competing. They have
a solid defense with all their key pieces returning. Yeah,
I think this team wins the conference with ease. And
more importantly, I like Marco's bett as far as making
(20:27):
the playoffs, because I think it's gonna be hard to
turn them away, especially if they run the table.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
All right, let's get into the SEC. This is kind
of an interesting conference this year. Right, last year was
pseudo interesting because of Texas and Oklahoma joining. But now
all of a sudden, here comes the Texas love no
different than the Big twelve.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Everybody thinks they're gonna win the SEC.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Everybody thinks they're gonna win the national championship game with
Arch Manning under the helm. Tell me who you like
to win the SEC? And are you faiting the Texas
hype or you just think this team is exponentially better?
Speaker 5 (21:07):
No, Texas? Is they all well deserved?
Speaker 3 (21:10):
I mean all the attention you're getting is very well
deserved with Texas. I mean, look at what they did
last year. Look at the defense, the amount of points
they allowed. It's not just offense now with the excitement
with Manning, but because of that, we're able to get
some value that otherwise would not be on the board.
Because one, I think the best teams in college football
right now are completely being overlooked.
Speaker 5 (21:32):
And that's Georgia.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
I mean, you're talking they're talking about Penn State, they're
talking about Ohio State. Obviously they're talking about Texas in
the SEC. They're even putting Alabama up there in the
SEC too, all the surprise.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Possibly at LSU they're the sexy pick. But Georgia continues
to be overlooked.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
And if you look over the last four season, few
teams have won as many games as Georgia. In fact,
they finished eleven and three last year, but over the
last four seasons they went fifty three and five.
Speaker 5 (21:59):
They've lost five games.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
In four seasons, and those losses they came to Alabama,
Michigan and Ohio State. Only two other teams lost less
than ten games in the last four seasons. That's Michigan
and that's Ohio State. And again, rarely will we get
this kind of value on a team like Georgia, who
has that recency of being really good over these last
(22:25):
four seasons. And you have a head coach in Smart
who in his six seasons three SEC titles, two national championships,
so he knows how to win when it matters, knows
how to.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Win the big games.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Then started quarterback with Gunner Stockton finally going to get
to play the full season after he was filling in
last year for Beck when he got injured.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
He looked great.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
Now he's going to have an entire.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Season, entire camp, the defensive stat all NFL talent all
over that defense, and you have a top five power
rating team. That's what's most important. In the twenty twenty
five season. There's five teams that are separated, like I said,
within two points, some even say within one point of
each other, and Georgia's right there.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
Like going on the.
Speaker 5 (23:13):
True line on a neutral field, I.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Wouldn't make Penn State, Ohio State, or Texas more than
a one point favorite over Georgia. The market may disagree
with me and bet them up to minus three, but
I don't think the true line would be much more
than one one and a half, maybe two max. But
it won't be a field goal of that key three
or I'd be all over Georgia. So I think Georgia
(23:36):
offers a ton of value at plus three sixty to
win arguably a very tough conference.
Speaker 5 (23:42):
But I think that's the team that's being overlooked.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, I've got another team to win the SEC at
eighteen to one, and we're going to get into them
here in a little bit for them to make the playoff, possibly, Mark.
I want to get your thoughts on the SEC as
I mentioned the Texas hype. Of course, Alabama's always in
the mix. Out an Alabama fan tex Me this.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Morning, saying, cal, do you think they're gonna get in?
Of course they're probably gonna get in. They're gonna let
in a three lost SEC team. Why wouldn't they?
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Of course, Kelly. But you know what, with Ace's brilliant
breakdown of the SEC as, I'm listening to all of this,
this is a carbon copy to me of the big Tag.
All of the hype goes to Texas. Okay, on paper,
they're the best team in the country, and there's so
much hype with arch Manning. But the problem is, just
(24:30):
like with Penn State with James Franklin, you've got Steve
stare gaging at Texas. The only way that we could
have poetic justice is if somehow Texas and Penn State
find their way to the National Championship Game. Then finally
one of those two coaches will win the big game
and can get the monkey off their back. But until
(24:52):
they do, I can't buy them at short prices. I
think that the SEC is wide open. I think the
SEC he has a chip on their shoulder because the
Big ten is taking a line light the last two seasons.
I mean, for how long it was just you know,
a parade of SEC national champions whether it was Georgia,
whether it was LSU a few years back. Alabama's dominance.
(25:16):
They want that back. So the rest of this conference
is coming to play. I think it's wide open after
Texas if they don't do what they're supposed to do.
But you hit the nail on the head, Kelly, You're
gonna get definitely two teams out of this conference in
possibly three. That's gonna give them a chance to get
somebody into the national championship game. So if you're gonna
(25:39):
look for value, it's not on Texas. There's two or
three other teams in here that present good value, like
we talked in the Big Ten. I will be talking
about one of them later.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
All right, I appreciate you guys hanging out with us
here on bat on It.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
If you guys are new.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
To the Wager Talking YouTube channel, please give us a
thumbs up and hit that subscribe. But I'm going to
talk about the team or excuse me. The conference formally
named the ACC, it's now just the Athletic Conference. And
I think this might be the toughest conference to break down.
You've got Tulane, UTSA, Navy, USF, and Memphis who I
(26:15):
can make a case for each and every one of
those teams to win it. I think it is a
very top heavy conference. But one of the games that
I or one of the teams excuse me, that I
thought was worth betting over nine games plus one point
thirty are good friends at fan Duel is Tulane. I
think John Summerl has done a terrific job as a
head coach, and back to back seasons he's went over
(26:37):
this season win total. Again, Memphis scares me a little
bit with their defense. USF, we've seen them play great
first halves and faltered in the second. Navy is always
going to give their best effort, and of course those
road runners there from San Antonio have made things really
interesting over the last couple of years. I do not
have a pick for this conference, and I apologize, Marco.
(26:59):
If you do have anything to add about the Athletic Conference,
please do so now.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
Yeah, you hit the nail on the head to start, Kelly,
this conference is wide open. I don't see a clear
cut favorite in this one. I like you, I can
make a case for several teams. Navy, you know, they're
always tough to prepare for. This is a team that
you know that's gonna come to play every single week.
(27:24):
Texas San Antonio. That's a team that I found some
spot plays on them last year. They are a team
that's up and coming moving into this conference. This is
a wide open conference. Don't take chalk here. Okay, find value.
But for me, I made no plays, no futures in
(27:44):
this one. I'm gonna just try to take this conference
week by week and try to find my spots and
hope that one of these teams gets a little bit
over value after starting the season out with maybe one
or two impressive wins and then everybody jumps on the bandwagon.
That's when we go the other way.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
All right, V Are any thoughts here before we move along?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Yeah, and I don't want to waste the viewers' time.
I don't have much to add at all. I agree
with Marco. I think you take this conference on a
week by week basis and look for some of those
teams that may become over or undervalued. I could look
at Memphis, but I just don't got to see what
their defense does this year. Like that was just two
week of a defense, even in a conference like that,
So pass past.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
For me, Pass past pass.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I'll take the over nine wins there at plus money.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Let's talk about playoffs, guys.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
I asked the guys to pick me a team to
sneak into.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
The twelve team college football.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Playoffs, and I said it has to be plus money,
and VR barely missed the mark.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Plus one twenty five there for LSU. VR, give me,
give me your thoughts on why you think LSU is
going to be that third SEC team to get in.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
And it's because I talked about Michigan a little earlier,
so I wanted to share some more information. But more importantly,
I didn't want to give a team that you know,
would just just throw it out there and not having
a real probable chance to get there. So I know
plus one twenty five isn't the biggest dog, but I
think it's a coin flip at worse for LSU, and
if you could get plus one twenty five on a
(29:10):
coin flip, not a bad bet. I did read Marco's
analysis and he's been talking about LSU a little bit later,
and I think his is a lot more in depth,
and it actually helped convince me even more so that
actually placed this bet because they're just so talented on
both sides of the ball. And Blake Baker now in
his second year at defense, and if you look, the
weakness for LSU was the secondary, and what did they do.
Speaker 5 (29:33):
They went out there and revamped that.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
Secondary, did exactly what you're supposed to do, so the
defense got even better. You got a fifth year starter
at quarterback. Texas and Georgia had a lot have those
tough schedules as well. And when I look at LSU,
they're a top ten power rated team right now to
start the season, at least in my numbers, and Kelly's
got a lot of motivation seeking his first playoff berth.
(29:56):
For a team like LSU, they expect to get to
the playoffs at least, if not challenge for a national championship.
I know the talk from him is like national championship
or bust, that's all we're aiming for. But right now,
just get in the playoffs, brother, and then take it
from there, because you haven't been there in a while,
and you've had the teams to get there. At plus
one twenty five again, I think it's a coin flip
and you're getting plus one twenty five.
Speaker 5 (30:18):
Do you want to lock up your money for that long?
Speaker 3 (30:19):
It's a tough sec but that's the dog that jumped
out at me as far as actually having a legit
shot to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
All right, Marco's going with the Big twelve team. Marco,
my first question is how many Big twelve teams do
you think we'll get in the college football playoff? And
why do you think one of them is Utah?
Speaker 4 (30:36):
I think you're gonna probably get two of them in there, Kelly,
be totally honest with you. You gave us the opportunity
to pick what conferences we wanted to do. I'll be
honest with you. My first choice would have been the
Big twelve. But being the gentleman that I am, I
saved at thinking that you would want the Big twelve.
Speaker 5 (30:57):
I snatched it, bro I snatched.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
It, all right. So I just want that out there.
I love Utah. Okay, and let's start with the narrative. Okay,
is Cam Rising questionable? He was questionable every single week
last year, never played and it was a disruption to
this team. This team moved over from the Pac twelve.
(31:21):
Last year, a lot of people thought high things from Utah,
and they should have. They had a great defense. They
had a veteran quarterback that's been injury prone, but if
he was going to be healthy, this team could go far.
Last year, well, he was never healthy, but he was
always hanging around that there was a possibility that he
was going to play, and he never got any continuity
(31:43):
on offense and that killed them. And even though the
offense didn't have that continuity last year, the defense never quit.
It kept them in ball games. Now this year, we
don't have to worry about Cam Rising. He's gone, and
what we've got is a new offensive coordinat this offensive coordinator,
Jason Beck comes in from New Mexico along with he's
(32:05):
bringing the quarterback with him, Devin Dampier, who hit the
transfer portal and followed his offensive coordinator to Utah. This
is a team that's loaded. They've got a big offensive
line to protect the quarterback and they're going to be
able to play that physical brand of football. When you
go back to their success that they had the last
(32:26):
few years in the Pac twelve, why was it? It
was the brand of football they played. They played defense,
which we've seen in the Pac twelve, not many teams
played defense. They were physical. I always referred to the
Pac twelve as a finesse conference, and they didn't like
the physicality of Utah, and it got them success. It
got them to the Pac twelve championship games. Now they
(32:50):
moved to the Big twelve. Isn't that just an extension
of what the Pac twelve was. You've got pass happy teams,
You've got teams that don't play defense. They want to
go up and down the field, play in shootouts. Utah
is a team that will frustrate most of the Big
twelve teams this year and getting the price that we're
(33:10):
getting on them at plus four to ninety to make
the playoffs. I gotta do that because if they win
the Big Twelve, they're getting in plus four ninety to
make the playoffs. We're there. And even if they have
a respectable second place finish in the Big Twelve, because
of the conference and being the big conference that it
(33:32):
is the Big Twelve, you're gonna get two teams in.
So I got two shots to make the playoffs at
plus four ninety with a team I think can win
this conference.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
There are three games Marco. That really concern me about
that Utah team, Arizona State, Texas Tech, and of course
my Kansas State Wildcats. On that note, I'm going to
take another big dog to make the college football playoff.
And it was funny I gave their season win total
out over with my friends at Picket Sports.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
I went on.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Vsin I talked about this team and I said, hey,
I think that they're a good long shot to win
the SEC.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
But I do think that the most amount.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Of value lies within this team getting in the college
fotball playoff, and.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
That is Florida. And in fact, Matt Humans called me
a homer for saying that. I'm like, wa wait a minute,
Wait a minute.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
I getting that they've won the national championship for me
in college basketball having a forty to one ticket in pocket,
but this is a completely different team and sport. Anyway,
I don't know how in the world I could possibly
be a homer of this team because I have done
nothing but bet against them as a favorite. And I've
kind of told you guys some spots as home underdogs,
particularly against.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Tennessee, when to play on this team.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
You guys talk a lot about the coaches and who's
in the hot seat and who has to take a
big step forward this season or they may no longer
have a job. One of those guys' names is Billy Napier.
Look seven wins in twenty twenty three, nine wins in
twenty twenty four. He's going over a season win total.
Second year, started with DJ Lagway and have plenty of
offensive weapons. I think this team has a real shot
(35:05):
to sneak into that twelve team college football playoff. I
mentioned the possibility of a three loss SEC team getting in.
I think Florida having two losses has a real shot
sneak in here.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
I like them plus three sixty.
Speaker 1 (35:19):
We're gonna go around the horn again and keep this
show rolling, similar to the last segment, but this time
we're going season wins and VR now agrees with Marco
Yeah on the Utah youths.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
I love this bet.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
In fact, I released a four percent best bet to
my subscribers on this over seven and a half at
minus one point fifty moving for multiple college football groups,
the same that back in twenty twenty twenty twenty one.
So when I'm getting confirmation, I'm feeling very confident. And
this one now has moved up to minus one seventy five,
so the market agrees with us, and I thought it
(35:55):
had value up the minus two hundred. I thought three
out of four times it actually gets there. Listen, they
finished two and seven in their first year in the
Big twelve, five and seven overall, but they had a
positive thirty five point differential, so if you look at
the Pythagorean wins and losses, the record should have been
much better than five and seven. I like that that
(36:17):
they underperformed based on point scored points allowed.
Speaker 5 (36:20):
Again, their offense only scored.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Twenty three point three points a game, putting them at
one hundred and sixth in college football. But it was
the defense top twenty five defense that only allowed twenty
point seven points. Okay, now the offense is going to
be much improved. You got an offensive coordinator and quarterback
coming from New Mexico, solid offensive line to protect them,
good weapons for the pass game and rushing, and anything
(36:44):
less than minus two hundred I think's gold here. They
only got improved three games from last season. This team's
got the ability to improve four to five games easily.
Give me over seven and a half. Utah to minus
two hundred all right.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Marco mentioned this in his Mountainous breakdown and now he's
going UNLV under eight and a half wins.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
A little chopping here for the show, Marco.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
Minus one thirty four, little little, little less jockey. But
you know, here's where we're going, Kelly. It's just hard
for me to get excited about this UNLV team this year.
This is a team that the last two years brought,
you know, excitement to Vegas. The unl V football program
(37:28):
has been non existent. They played, you know, in a
beautiful stadium. You would think that the program would do better. Well,
they finally had their guy. Barry Otom brought a sense
of swagger to this team. They had a toughness to them,
and they had two successful seasons. But as I said,
when you're a smaller program like UNLV and you have success,
(37:51):
one thing's gonna happen, and it's gonna happen quickly. That
success is going to land your coach somewhere else. And
Barry otom got the head coach job at Purdue. Now
in comes Dan Mullen and I just talked about that
toughness that Barry Odom had. Do you know last year, Kelly,
you would love this Barry Odom for charity went to
(38:14):
the South Point during a rodeo and actually rode a bull.
Took the team and he rode a bull for charity,
just to show that toughness. And when your coach does
something like that, you're gonna run through walls for him.
I don't see Dan Mullen getting on any bull anytime soon.
Dan Mullen, I didn't like him at Florida. I'm sorry,
(38:36):
and I'm probably never gonna talk to him on a
radio show that I do here in Vegas if he
watches this. But I wasn't a fan of him there,
didn't last at Florida, got fired, Then he went behind
the mic. You know, he was on camera for ESPN
as an analyst, and now he's coming out of the team,
converting this team and another bad sign for UNLV. Nobody's left, Okay,
(39:01):
everybody departed. Anybody that could have stayed didn't. This team
that cupboard's bear. So if the players weren't buying what
Dan Mullen was selling, neither am I. I'm taking under
eight and a half wins. I don't see them getting
near it.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
All right, last, but not least, I will go And
if you guys, watch bet on it the last.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
Couple of years.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
You know, we made fun of Mario Cristoball a lot,
and it wasn't, you know, by his own doing. You
don't want to get Crysta balled, as our good friend
Joe Ranier used to say. And somehow this man won
ten games by the grace of God last year. And
you know what, he's never been able to do do
that back to back in his career. If you guys
recall we bet against the team four times last season
(39:45):
and it took Georgia Tech to finally get us the
outright winner.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
That CAL game.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Virginia Tech Louisville man cam Ward pulled out tricks against
us to somehow get that w And now we've been
replaced by Carson beck Georgia transfer. And I'm sure that
the Georgia Bulldog fans in the comment section are not
gonna be very happy with me. But let's remember he
was replaced due to injury after being down in the
(40:12):
SEC championship game to Texas. Stockton came in and was
able to win them that.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Game, and that was all she wrote.
Speaker 4 (40:18):
Now.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Beckett started his tenure in Coral Gables with a bunch
of drama if you guys follow along on social media.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
And I'm just not sure Miami is the place for
a guy like this. I could be dead wrong. I
could have to eat my words.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
But I think the ultimate test on how Florida and
Miami are both gonna do this year is that game
coming right up around the corner here for week one.
Then Florida's gonna get the win for a week one,
and that is going to solidify Miami under eight and
a half wins plus one thirty Marco really quickly, because
I totally forgot. You were supposed to promo yourself after
(40:55):
your Utah breakdown, and I did not give you that opportunity.
So I want to give you that opportunity right now.
Speaker 4 (41:00):
I appreciate It's probably because I was busting your you
know what with Kansas State. But Kelly, we got a
special deal going over at wager Talk. Last year, Ben
Burns was the number one football handicapper money won college
and pro combined. I was the number two football handicapper
(41:21):
college and pro football money won combined. So what did
we do at wager Talk. We put a special deal together.
You can get both Ben and myself for the entire
football season, college and Pro. You'll go all the way
through the Super Bowl. Get all of our plays, both
handicappers for a combined price of fourteen ninety eight. That
(41:43):
in itself is a fantastic offer for the football season,
but you also get two bonuses. You're gonna get a
seven day flex option for both cappers where you could
use that anytime you want, whenever we have baseball down
the stretch, so you're locked in for all of your football.
(42:05):
You can save those flex picks to use on a
baseball day if one of us have a big play
or something and you want to follow along, or if
you bet the WNBA. And I know everybody just turned
off whenever I said that because people don't like to
bet the WNBA. I have been killing it. See me
with a WNBA play and you like money, you don't
have to watch it, just cash it. We've done extremely
(42:27):
well with WNBA number two the last two years in
money one. So check that offer out at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
All right, let's get into those National Championship picks.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
And as I told the guys, is there anything worse
than someone picking the chalk plays to win the National Championship.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
Yeah, Texas is the front runner.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
You got the usual suspects in Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State.
But I told these guys give me fifteen to one
or better, right, Like, that's fine. You want to tell
me that you think Texas is gonna win it all,
but give me something juicy.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
Just for reference.
Speaker 1 (43:03):
The five biggest underdogs to ever win the national championship
twenty excuse me two thousand and two, Ohio State was
nineteen to one. USC won at the following year as
a twenty to one underdog LSU in twenty nineteen thirty
three to one, Ohio State twenty fourteen, forty four to one,
(43:24):
and the biggest dog to ever win the national championship,
the Auburn Tigers, as at.
Speaker 2 (43:31):
Fifty to one. So VR, let's get into your national
championship pick.
Speaker 1 (43:37):
But before we do, tell me what you got going
on over for the college football season at wager Talk.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I wish this was live because I just bet a
doubles Cincinnati atp the men's doubles, So hopefully if this
was live, I'd be giving that out. But yeah, I
got the season package of NFL and college football. I
combined it together so you get all those futures already
nine in therecluding a five percent best bet season win
total in the NFL. There'll be a lot more between
(44:05):
now and when the season kicks off. Staying more selective,
but definitely worth tying up some money on those futures
because the RII just has been so good long term.
And yeah, other than that, week by week, and of
course I got a five percent going in the UFC
this Saturday.
Speaker 5 (44:22):
So excited.
Speaker 3 (44:23):
Busy couple of days, busy couple of months ahead and
this college football season, NFL season ready to do some damage.
Speaker 5 (44:30):
So make sure you tune in weekend week out. Bet
on it baby.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
Yeah, I just realized you and Marco both have the
same national champion pick. So I'm gonna let you take
the helm first. Then we'll go to Marco to see
if he's got anything to add.
Speaker 3 (44:44):
Yeah, and it's because we had to go with fifteen
to one or higher. And it's funny, it was probably
fourteen to one, and then yesterday when I look at
got the the it was a fifteen to one, and
just going back, I don't want to take the time
to repeat myself, but I just think LSQU is that
team that if things go right, like they could really
make a run. They're that loaded on both sides of
the ball. That the problem is they're in one of
(45:05):
the toughest conferences and because of that, you got to
have some luck go your way, like you know, some
injuries on other not wishing bad on others, but that's
what you need.
Speaker 5 (45:15):
Some bad things to happen to the Georgias of the world, to.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
The Alabamas, to Texas, and then they have a shot
to make a run again four seasons in. You gotta
do something, bro like you have the talent. So again,
I'll let Marco take it from there, but I like
LSU at fifteen to one.
Speaker 5 (45:35):
I think it's live.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
All right, Marco, let's hear your analysis on why you
think Brian Kelly is headed back to the national championship.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
Okay, Kelly, I've given you a lot of grief on
the show so far. I'm gonna give VR a little bit.
I think he fabricated that fifteen to one just because
he was scared to get yelled at by you and
see band slide. Okay, because Kelly wanted fifteen to one
or more. My opening line, guys in our slack channel
for our notes for the game is I've got LSU
(46:06):
at fourteen and one, fourteen to one, just to piss
Kelly off because it's not fifteen to one, all right,
So I do Like.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
God, I'm just a nice girl from Kansas. Why would
I ever get mad at you?
Speaker 4 (46:21):
If you guys ever heard her yell at me when
I screw up on social media? The sixty four year
old trying to do TikTok and Instagram. She forgets how
old I am. But we're trying. She has given me
some love lately on it, so I'm getting I must
be getting better. Look at LSU. I look at this team,
and the first thing I'm gonna say, yes, this is
(46:43):
year four from coach Kelly. That's important because now there
is no more excuses. You've got all the players that
you want. You know, normally it used to be, you know,
year two to year three were the big years where
you saw it. But now because of the portal, it
has to be even fatter. Teams expect results quicker because
you're bringing that big influx and making wholesale changes. They's
(47:08):
got everybody they won, and it starts at quarterback. You've
got a fifth year senior quarterback in Garrett neuss Meyer
going for that. This team is going to be good defensively,
they're going to be excellent offensively. And you look at him.
He's coming off a season where he threw for over
four thousand yards, he had twenty nine tds and as
(47:29):
I said, it looks even better this year on paper
for that offense. The LSU defense was good last year.
They held nine of thirteen opponents to twenty seven or
fewer points. And I know twenty seven maybe sounds a
little bit high, but in today's college football, no, it's not.
We've seen a lot more scoring in college football. Holding
(47:52):
nine of thirteen to twenty seven or less is huge,
and I look for this team to continue what they
did last year. They were a balanced offense. What that
translated to was over thirty two minutes per game time
of possession that was sixteenth best in the country. Those
are all the ingredients that you need to win a
(48:13):
national championship. Good defense, a playmaker at quarterback, and be
able to have a balanced offense that you're not one dimensional.
I think they make a serious run in the SEC,
gets them into the playoffs, and once they're in the playoffs.
I'll take my chances with this team at that eye
popping fourteen to one.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
Sorry, Kelly, uh see, Then then I just had to
go do something like this, a team that's not ever
going to win the national championship, but I do think
there's an immense amount of value. We mentioned the amount
of parody in the Big Twelve. There's a five horse
race there. We mentioned that we think at least two
Big twelve teams are going to get in to the
college football playoff, and I thought, you know what, I'm
(49:00):
kind of a little crazy. This isn't gonna happen. But
let's look at the team that has spent a godly
amount of money oil money. In fact, they spent more
money than ninety four percent of.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
The schools in college football. And in fact, the past.
Speaker 1 (49:18):
Two years they have fifteen x their nil spending budget.
They got seventeen guys part as part of their new
rebuild just for this year. Yeah, I'm talking about Joey
McGuire's squad Texas Tech. At one hundred to one, I
think this team has a real opportunity to play last
year's Arizona State, right, A team that kind of came
(49:39):
out of nowhere and got into the College Football Playoff
after winning the Big Twelve. I think Texas Tech has
value going over their season win total. I think they
have value going to win the Big Twelve. And no,
they're not going to win the National Championship. And I
know I'm supposed to pick a national champion, but everything
is so chalky. Vre mentioned there was not one team
that was one and a half points two points better
(49:59):
than so I thought, you know what, I'm just gonna
go off the deep end. Texas Tech is currently one
hundred to one to win the Natty.
Speaker 2 (50:06):
Again.
Speaker 1 (50:07):
I just want to see this team be able to
get into the College Football Playoff, and being able to
do that means that we're alive and we have other
opportunities to make some money. So give me Texas Tech
over their season win total' to give me Texas Tech
to win the Big Twelve, and why not throw a
little flyer on them to win the National Championship. Let's
(50:28):
bring the guys back in. This was our first show
back together as the Gang. We're also currently going to
do some NFL preview shows, which we're very excited about.
If you're looking for more information on that, head over
to the wager Talking YouTube channel and then of course
live from Ireland. That's all right, guys, I'm gonna be
doing the first college football bat on An episode. There's
(50:50):
only five games, but we've got to do an episode
and I'm gonna try not to drink too.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Many Guinnesses before that one.
Speaker 1 (50:56):
So thank you guys again for hanging out with us
here on the wager Talk YouTube channel as well as
your various social platforms. Don't forget to hit that like
button and of course subscribe so you never miss another
episode of bet On It
College football season is right around the corner. What futures
vets should you be getting in right now? You're about
to find out next on bet on It. What a
(00:24):
blast from the past. I guess we're gonna use our
same intro from twenty twenty one. That's right, guys, that's
the last time US three did a solo show together.
But we listened to everybody in the comments. We listened
to our wager talk, friends and family. We decided to
bring it back myself, Kelly Stewart, Marco DiAngelo, and Yanni
the Greek we call him Ace, we call him VR.
(00:46):
You're gonna hear me give him various names throughout the show.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
And this is our college football preview.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
We're gonna go through some of the powerful conferences, plus
a couple of extras.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
We're gonna talk national champions here at the end.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
We've got some regular season win totals for you guys
as well.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
We're gonna get right into it.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Marco di'angelo VR, You guys are gonna have to wait
in the wings because I'm gonna talk about the ACC first.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Because of alphabetic quarder.
Speaker 1 (01:12):
Look, Clemson plus one oh five is the obvious choice here,
and I do think we will talk about those Miami
Hurricanes here later on in the regular season win segment,
but right now I think that there is a longer
shot to win the ACC and it's Louisville plus seven fifty.
As you guys know, they lost their quarterback to the NFL,
but they did get USC transfer Miller moss over twenty
(01:36):
five hundred passing yards eighteen touchdowns last year with the Trojans,
and what a better coach for him to play under
than Jeff Brohm.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
I think Jeff brom is gonna have one of the.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Best offenses we've seen in his tenure there at Louisville.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
And I look for the Cardinals not.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Only to win ten games this season, but to give
Clemson a run for their money on November fourteen. How
this is gonna kind of work for this previous shows,
I'm gonna give both guys a chance to interjected.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Marco thoughts on the ACC.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Well, I think the ACC is one of the more
wide open conferences, Kelly. I agree with you. There are
several teams that could make some noise. Moss a, you
know he's coming from USC. We'll see if the new
scenery is good for him. But you know, remember at
the end there at USC the old UNLV quarterback ended
(02:29):
up finishing up there the last couple of games last season,
So we'll see what happens with him. But if there's
a coach that can groom a quarterback, I agree with
you Jeff Baum is the guy that can get it done.
There's gonna be a lot of hype watching Bill Belichick
in the ACC this year and what he's gonna do
with North Carolina, So you might sign find value with
(02:52):
other teams because obviously he's gonna command some attention, and
then you always have the usual suspect of clin We
saw Clemson get off to a slower start last year.
They rallied got themselves into the championship game against SMU
last year, so maybe they can return to the glory days.
(03:13):
But too short of a price for me. So I
don't have a problem with your play, Kelly. As I said,
you like dogs. That is a live one. I gotta
give you that much.
Speaker 1 (03:24):
All right, V are your thoughts on the ACC before
we move on to the Big twelve.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Yeah, I mean Clemson's got some ground to make up
at the last season, but they aren't still the cream
of the crop, and when you look at them, they're
a top.
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Ten power rated team.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
The problem is, I think they're a little bit over
value coming into the season, having them as fourth right
now in the AP pole, sixth in the coaches poll.
I think that's a little bit too high for Clemson.
I think they should be a little bit lower than
that as far as the rankings go. But that's going
(03:59):
to play itself out as the season progresses. Again, Clemson's
coming off a season where they held opponents. They gave
up one hundred and seventy four total points overall. For
this I mean three hundred and nine total points overall,
had almost a two hundred point one hundred and fifty
point differential. Like the thing is, you know, can they
(04:21):
get back in where they were a few seasons ago.
I'm not sure this version is up the par Again.
I don't dislike your pick. I do think it's live
and again, even though Clemson's the cream of the crop,
I do think they're they're beatable. They're they're top ten,
maybe barely top ten. I don't think they're top five.
(04:44):
I don't see them as a top five team yet.
Speaker 1 (04:46):
High line I said we were going to Big twelve
next we're actually going to Big ten, which is who
Marco selected to break down Marco, there's on a four
horse race here in this conference.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
Well on Kelly, there's one team that stands out above
everybody else. Okay, and at his Penn State. They are
absolutely loaded on both sides of the football. This is
the best team on paper in the Big Ten. This
is the big the best team that James Franklin has
had at it since his tenure at Penn State. But
(05:20):
there's one problem. There's still James Franklin there. And that's
my biggest conferred. You know, if this offense doesn't wake
up this year with everything they've got, I don't know
that James Franklin will be there next year. They're there
to do it. Do I trust Penn State until he
shows me that he can open up an offense. No,
(05:43):
I don't, and not at the price that they're gonna be. Well,
then there's this next choice. You've got Ohio State, the
national champions. Ryan Day finally got that monkey off his back,
got the championship last year. This is a team though
if you look, man, they were dead made it with
talent that moved on to the NFL from last year,
(06:04):
and now we know that the big programs don't rebuild,
they just reload. So Ohio State's gonna be fine as
far as talent goes, but there's gonna be a little
bit of a learning curve blending all the new players
in there. And you know, it's the first season, first
show of the season. I got to get a fat
and sassy in there somewhere. If there's any team that
has a right to be a little bit of fat
(06:26):
and sassy coming into this season, it would be Ohio State.
After getting it done last year. Remember there was a
point of the season where people were calling for Ryan Day,
you know, job, and then they got the job done,
got themselves back in position after the devastating loss to Michigan,
laid in the season and got it done. So where
(06:47):
am I going to go for value? I think there's
a team that's getting overlooked and it was one of
the newcomers to the Big Ten last year, and that's Oregon. Now,
Oregon's never going to be totally overlooked. But as far
as coming into this season, it starts with Penn State
in Ohio State. So for me, The value to win
this conference lies with Oregon. They did well with their
(07:12):
reloading after last season. Last year had to be a
little bit of an adjustment for them, you know, having
to come and play those games you know in the
Midwest and you know on the East Coast where you've
got games where you know those West Coast teams. You
don't have to play some of these Big Ten teams
traveling to penn State and so forth. Those were going
(07:34):
to be tough spots doing it for the first time
and getting through it and now know what to expect.
That's got to be a big advantage coming into this year.
I'll take Oregon at plus three twenty to be the
sleeper to win the Big Ten. Sorry, James Franklin until
you show me, I can't do it with you. I'll
(07:55):
be rooting for you as a Pennsylvania native, but you
got to show me first.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Kelly, Yeah, Marco, I'm kind of with you here.
Speaker 4 (08:01):
VR.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
I'm curious if you like to do the same or
at least the groups that you work for.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
You kind of buck the narrative.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Right when I turn on Fox, ESPN, CBS, NBC, any
sports show, and the number one thing they're talking about
in May is how Penn State's gonna win the national championship.
I'm going, huh so your thoughts on this Big Ten Conference?
As I mentioned, I really I could make a case
for three or four teams here to win this one.
(08:29):
I think that there's a five dog race. Talk to
me about the Big Ten and maybe anything that Marco
didn't touch.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
On, you nailed it.
Speaker 3 (08:36):
And that's why I'm so excited about this college football
season is because if you don't have that one elite
team that's three plus points better than everybody else. In fact,
if you look at the top five teams in the country,
most respected power raiders are going to have them within
two points of each other. That's five or six teams
within two points of each other. At the top, you've
got to have Penn State in Ohio State, it's one A,
(08:56):
one B. Before the season starts, you know those two
right there. I think on on neutral field, you make
it a pick them and let the market decide who
they'd make the favorite. But who I think is being
overlooked is Michigan. I really think Michigan the price that
they're offering may be a little bit too good to
pass off because this is a possible playoff team and
(09:17):
they're giving you like thirty five forty to one in
the future. Again, I don't expect them to win the
national championship, but it's a team that can make a
run because they are being overlooked.
Speaker 4 (09:28):
Loaded loaded loaded.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
On defense, especially on the line, Like it's going to
be tough to put up points against Michigan, and that's
going to give them time to figure out the quarterback
situation because you have the transfer and Nikey Keane and
then you have the freshman in Bryce Underwood who's supposed
to be a start. Those guys got time to figure
it out. Why this defense keeps the scoring low because
(09:51):
you have a running backs, that duo back there that
could get the job done and put up points for you.
So for me, I think Michigan's that team that's being
overlooked this year because of just how good Penn State is,
just how good Ohio State is, and I think they
could sneak up on some of these teams. And more importantly,
(10:13):
I think the price that you're getting on.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
Michigan makes sense.
Speaker 3 (10:17):
It's tough to choose between Penn State and Ohio State,
but for a long shot, I like Michigan.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Who let's see who you like for the Big Twelve.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
I'm sitting here looking at VR's notes and I'm going, man,
you've got k State, Texas Tech, Utah, Baylor, Arizona State
all basically in the running here to win the Big twelve. VR,
tell me why you think it's gonna be Arizona State
without Cam Skataboo.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Because they came out of nowhere last season, and I
think that's gonna like propel them forward. Here's why. It's
a conference that has a ton of parody. Forty three
percent of conference games last year were decided to bite
less than one one score or less, so there were
a lot of coin flip results last season. And then
(11:07):
you look at Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Utah,
and Baylor. That's five teams that are giving you between
plus five fifty and plus seven hundred, so again amongst each.
Speaker 5 (11:19):
Other, they're all almost a coin flip.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
But here's why I like Arizona.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
State because even though Skataboo was thirty nine percent of
the team's yardage from scrimmage, which tied him for fourth
in FBS, they return about seventy nine eighty percent of
their total production.
Speaker 4 (11:39):
That's the key.
Speaker 5 (11:40):
So I think you'll be able to fit.
Speaker 3 (11:42):
In running backs that Again, they're not going to be
Camp Scatiboo, but I think if you all you know
run like now, even in the NFL, we don't see
those backs that have fifteen hundred yards, you know, you
have multiple backs. I think Arizona State's going to have
to do something like that until someone steps forward and
really tries to replace them. But I think they'll be
(12:02):
fine just with that because they have an a Heisman
hopeful quarterback, they have weapons at wide receiver, offensive line
to protect them, and the bulk of the defense is
returning that only allows twenty two and a half points.
Like I think that the again, you're losing a huge piece.
But I think it's there's that overreaction. We talk about
(12:24):
it all the time in the NFL, like no players
worth as much as we think they're worth. We talk
about it with non quarterbacks. Skill position players are worth
very little to the betting line. And I think this
is an overreaction and I think Arizona State will prove
that they're just much better than these teams even though
they're all grouped up. I was ready to fire. Kansas
(12:46):
State's right there, Kansas State's right there. I think it's
gonna come down to who's healthier, you know, when it
comes to football, that's the key. Who's they able to
stay healthier or who gets some of the bounces, you know,
who has good luck or bad luck. But I do
like the favorite, Arizona State at plus five point fifty
to repeat all.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
Right, I'll tell you this much.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
I have a little bit of faith in Kansas State,
but they kind of remind me of Penn State. A
lot of those sports writers seem to be well high
on my Wildcats, and that usually makes me, as a fan,
a little apprehensive. But I do think Avery Johnson now
getting all of those reps last year, finally getting to
be the starter, finally getting to spend time as the
(13:27):
first TERRN quarterback in this offense. He made a lot
of mistakes last year, and I think he can actually
start to capitalize on some of those. I know Dj
Giddens left for the NFL, but guess what we got.
Fillin's right behind him, another two headed monster in the
backfield there with Avery Johnson's best friend and Dylan Edwards.
And of course finally Kase got a five star recruit
and Link and Cure a lot of expectation there. Running
(13:49):
a two tight end set is going to be very,
very interesting. I'll say this. I did bet Baylor over
seven and a half wins and that was another team
that Vre mentioned. And I will get to Texas Tech
here at the end of the show, because of course
I had to pick some crazy long shot that's never
gonna hit. Marco your thoughts on the Big twelve. I
(14:09):
know you have some things to say about Utah later
on in the show as well.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
Yeah, I got a lot to say about Utah later
in the show. And just to rebuttal a little bit,
my concern with Arizona State with them is they caught
a lot of teams by surprise last year in VR
mentioned at and you had a coach that, can we
say it, he had probably one of the biggest set
of balls in college football, some of the trick plays
(14:35):
and stuff that he ran at different times in games.
I don't think that teams are going to get caught.
They're going to prepare for things from him. Remember, they
moved over from the Pac twelve just like Utah, and
I got a lot to say about Utah later, but
I expect Arizona State to take a step back, losing
(14:56):
that bit scataboo, the way that he did so many
things for that team, taking away that element of surprise
because new team in the conference from last year, and
then will the coach do the same thing and take
the same chances this year? Last year, nobody expected anything
from them. This year, there are expectations because of last
(15:17):
year's success, So maybe he won't gamble as much. That's
my concern there at Kelly, you know, I mean, if
there was ever a lock, if I could have put
a five percent out for this show, I would say,
Kelly's gonna give Kansas State luck. Okay, all right, you're
always going to give them love.
Speaker 1 (15:34):
Okay, let me give some let me say some things.
Their secondary is horrendous. I'm absolutely terrified about some of
their losses on defense. But I do think Austin Romaine
is going to be a great leader for them. And hey,
I'm so not sure who they're starting wide receivers are
going to be, because there's about six guys that are
mediocre at best.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Is that what you wanted me to say.
Speaker 4 (15:53):
The day that you would say somewhere.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
To go see this team in person. Okay, I'm gonna
give you that much.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
Yeah, I know, that's it. You gotta admit. Okay, when
it comes to k State and you can compare me
to Pittsburgh, I trash the Steelers more often on a
weekly basis. I don't know. And maybe Dan can check
the archives if you've ever actually on record how to
play against Kansas State.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
I didn't have a play on them. How about that?
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Well, okay, let's.
Speaker 2 (16:24):
Get into this newest promotion we have over wager Talk.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
It's seven days of unlimited access flex picks only sixty
nine bucks.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
That's right.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
You get seven days of all access or flex picks
for just sixty nine dollars. That's less than ten dollars
a day for NonStop action. Get your expert picks from
your favorite wager Talk handicappers or everything preseason NFL, MLB, UFC, WNBA,
soccer and more. You can pick your go to expert
or switch things up with Flexpix All Access. All right, Marco,
(16:55):
We're gonna go right back to you. You've been to
the Mountain West for your proximity out there in Las Vegas.
This was a conference that I used to follow so much.
They're awesome football teams, but they just don't quite hit
the mark all the time. There's a team, though, in
the Mountain West that every once in a while gets
a lot of love. Right last year with Ashton john T,
(17:16):
they got a lot of hype surrounding him and a
lot of people say, you should have got into the
college football playoff.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I want to hear why you think they're gonna win
the Mountain West.
Speaker 4 (17:26):
Well, obviously they're the favorite to win the Mountain West
and they should be. The Mountain West this year is
really bad in my opinion, and one of the teams
that people are giving a little bit of love too.
I'm just gonna blow them up later in the show.
But I'm not gonna take Boise State at minus one
(17:46):
point fifty five to win the conference and really no
value there in that wager. So how can we make
Boise State that we want to take them and we
want to turn them into a plus proposition. Well, let's
just go ahead and take Boise State right now to
make the college football playoffs. The team is loaded, where
(18:07):
everybody else is either rebuilding or has a new coach.
I haven't seen more coaches carousel one season in a
particular conferences we have this year in the Mountain West.
So where are they gonna get beat from their schedule?
They always schedule somebody, you know, tough early. They have
that game this year again. But I see them running
(18:29):
the table after that. I see this team is eleven
and one. They win the Mountain West eleven and one,
that's going to get them into the college football playoffs.
And at plus one seventy two right now, you can
get them for the yes to make the playoffs. That's
where I'm gonna go with them now. As I said,
the team that people have a little bit of hype
(18:52):
and they have a new coach is UNLV. I'm going
to talk about them later in more detail when we
get to a segment here. But this is a team that, yeah,
UNLV came out of nowhere for the last two seasons.
But when you have success, what happens your small program.
You have success, you can kiss your coach goodbye. And
(19:12):
that's what's happened to UNLV. So not only does you
and LV have a new coach, they lost a lot
of people will go into that detail, and then they've
got a new coach, a coach that Kelly's familiar with
from his former coaching job a few years ago. I
wasn't impressed there when he was there. I'm not going
to be impressed here, and I'll explain why later. But
(19:35):
take Boise to make the playoffs. That's the best play
to make out of the Mountain.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Westr I can't really disagree with Marco here.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Do you have any thoughts on the Mountain West Conference?
Speaker 4 (19:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (19:45):
And actually I don't mind laying some chalk for them
to win this conference because I do think the ROI
is worth tying up your money for a couple months.
They have one of the East faltest strength of schedules,
like in the top twenty as far as easy strength
of schedule goes. You got a potent offense with a
(20:07):
stud quarterback. You know, even though they got to replace
Jantia at running back, they have the pieces to do that.
They got two good guys back there competing. They have
a solid defense with all their key pieces returning. Yeah,
I think this team wins the conference with ease. And
more importantly, I like Marco's bett as far as making
(20:27):
the playoffs, because I think it's gonna be hard to
turn them away, especially if they run the table.
Speaker 1 (20:33):
All right, let's get into the SEC. This is kind
of an interesting conference this year. Right, last year was
pseudo interesting because of Texas and Oklahoma joining. But now
all of a sudden, here comes the Texas love no
different than the Big twelve.
Speaker 2 (20:50):
Everybody thinks they're gonna win the SEC.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Everybody thinks they're gonna win the national championship game with
Arch Manning under the helm. Tell me who you like
to win the SEC? And are you faiting the Texas
hype or you just think this team is exponentially better?
Speaker 5 (21:07):
No, Texas? Is they all well deserved?
Speaker 3 (21:10):
I mean all the attention you're getting is very well
deserved with Texas. I mean, look at what they did
last year. Look at the defense, the amount of points
they allowed. It's not just offense now with the excitement
with Manning, but because of that, we're able to get
some value that otherwise would not be on the board.
Because one, I think the best teams in college football
right now are completely being overlooked.
Speaker 5 (21:32):
And that's Georgia.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
I mean, you're talking they're talking about Penn State, they're
talking about Ohio State. Obviously they're talking about Texas in
the SEC. They're even putting Alabama up there in the
SEC too, all the surprise.
Speaker 5 (21:44):
Possibly at LSU they're the sexy pick. But Georgia continues
to be overlooked.
Speaker 3 (21:49):
And if you look over the last four season, few
teams have won as many games as Georgia. In fact,
they finished eleven and three last year, but over the
last four seasons they went fifty three and five.
Speaker 5 (21:59):
They've lost five games.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
In four seasons, and those losses they came to Alabama,
Michigan and Ohio State. Only two other teams lost less
than ten games in the last four seasons. That's Michigan
and that's Ohio State. And again, rarely will we get
this kind of value on a team like Georgia, who
has that recency of being really good over these last
(22:25):
four seasons. And you have a head coach in Smart
who in his six seasons three SEC titles, two national championships,
so he knows how to win when it matters, knows
how to.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Win the big games.
Speaker 3 (22:37):
Then started quarterback with Gunner Stockton finally going to get
to play the full season after he was filling in
last year for Beck when he got injured.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
He looked great.
Speaker 5 (22:48):
Now he's going to have an entire.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
Season, entire camp, the defensive stat all NFL talent all
over that defense, and you have a top five power
rating team. That's what's most important. In the twenty twenty
five season. There's five teams that are separated, like I said,
within two points, some even say within one point of
each other, and Georgia's right there.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
Like going on the.
Speaker 5 (23:13):
True line on a neutral field, I.
Speaker 3 (23:15):
Wouldn't make Penn State, Ohio State, or Texas more than
a one point favorite over Georgia. The market may disagree
with me and bet them up to minus three, but
I don't think the true line would be much more
than one one and a half, maybe two max. But
it won't be a field goal of that key three
or I'd be all over Georgia. So I think Georgia
(23:36):
offers a ton of value at plus three sixty to
win arguably a very tough conference.
Speaker 5 (23:42):
But I think that's the team that's being overlooked.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, I've got another team to win the SEC at
eighteen to one, and we're going to get into them
here in a little bit for them to make the playoff, possibly, Mark.
I want to get your thoughts on the SEC as
I mentioned the Texas hype. Of course, Alabama's always in
the mix. Out an Alabama fan tex Me this.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
Morning, saying, cal, do you think they're gonna get in?
Of course they're probably gonna get in. They're gonna let
in a three lost SEC team. Why wouldn't they?
Speaker 4 (24:09):
Of course, Kelly. But you know what, with Ace's brilliant
breakdown of the SEC as, I'm listening to all of this,
this is a carbon copy to me of the big Tag.
All of the hype goes to Texas. Okay, on paper,
they're the best team in the country, and there's so
much hype with arch Manning. But the problem is, just
(24:30):
like with Penn State with James Franklin, you've got Steve
stare gaging at Texas. The only way that we could
have poetic justice is if somehow Texas and Penn State
find their way to the National Championship Game. Then finally
one of those two coaches will win the big game
and can get the monkey off their back. But until
(24:52):
they do, I can't buy them at short prices. I
think that the SEC is wide open. I think the
SEC he has a chip on their shoulder because the
Big ten is taking a line light the last two seasons.
I mean, for how long it was just you know,
a parade of SEC national champions whether it was Georgia,
whether it was LSU a few years back. Alabama's dominance.
(25:16):
They want that back. So the rest of this conference
is coming to play. I think it's wide open after
Texas if they don't do what they're supposed to do.
But you hit the nail on the head, Kelly, You're
gonna get definitely two teams out of this conference in
possibly three. That's gonna give them a chance to get
somebody into the national championship game. So if you're gonna
(25:39):
look for value, it's not on Texas. There's two or
three other teams in here that present good value, like
we talked in the Big Ten. I will be talking
about one of them later.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
All right, I appreciate you guys hanging out with us
here on bat on It.
Speaker 2 (25:54):
If you guys are new.
Speaker 1 (25:54):
To the Wager Talking YouTube channel, please give us a
thumbs up and hit that subscribe. But I'm going to
talk about the team or excuse me. The conference formally
named the ACC, it's now just the Athletic Conference. And
I think this might be the toughest conference to break down.
You've got Tulane, UTSA, Navy, USF, and Memphis who I
(26:15):
can make a case for each and every one of
those teams to win it. I think it is a
very top heavy conference. But one of the games that
I or one of the teams excuse me, that I
thought was worth betting over nine games plus one point
thirty are good friends at fan Duel is Tulane. I
think John Summerl has done a terrific job as a
head coach, and back to back seasons he's went over
(26:37):
this season win total. Again, Memphis scares me a little
bit with their defense. USF, we've seen them play great
first halves and faltered in the second. Navy is always
going to give their best effort, and of course those
road runners there from San Antonio have made things really
interesting over the last couple of years. I do not
have a pick for this conference, and I apologize, Marco.
(26:59):
If you do have anything to add about the Athletic Conference,
please do so now.
Speaker 4 (27:04):
Yeah, you hit the nail on the head to start, Kelly,
this conference is wide open. I don't see a clear
cut favorite in this one. I like you, I can
make a case for several teams. Navy, you know, they're
always tough to prepare for. This is a team that
you know that's gonna come to play every single week.
(27:24):
Texas San Antonio. That's a team that I found some
spot plays on them last year. They are a team
that's up and coming moving into this conference. This is
a wide open conference. Don't take chalk here. Okay, find value.
But for me, I made no plays, no futures in
(27:44):
this one. I'm gonna just try to take this conference
week by week and try to find my spots and
hope that one of these teams gets a little bit
over value after starting the season out with maybe one
or two impressive wins and then everybody jumps on the bandwagon.
That's when we go the other way.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
All right, V Are any thoughts here before we move along?
Speaker 3 (28:04):
Yeah, and I don't want to waste the viewers' time.
I don't have much to add at all. I agree
with Marco. I think you take this conference on a
week by week basis and look for some of those
teams that may become over or undervalued. I could look
at Memphis, but I just don't got to see what
their defense does this year. Like that was just two
week of a defense, even in a conference like that,
So pass past.
Speaker 2 (28:24):
For me, Pass past pass.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
I'll take the over nine wins there at plus money.
Speaker 2 (28:29):
Let's talk about playoffs, guys.
Speaker 1 (28:31):
I asked the guys to pick me a team to
sneak into.
Speaker 2 (28:35):
The twelve team college football.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Playoffs, and I said it has to be plus money,
and VR barely missed the mark.
Speaker 2 (28:41):
I'm kidding.
Speaker 1 (28:41):
Plus one twenty five there for LSU. VR, give me,
give me your thoughts on why you think LSU is
going to be that third SEC team to get in.
Speaker 3 (28:49):
And it's because I talked about Michigan a little earlier,
so I wanted to share some more information. But more importantly,
I didn't want to give a team that you know,
would just just throw it out there and not having
a real probable chance to get there. So I know
plus one twenty five isn't the biggest dog, but I
think it's a coin flip at worse for LSU, and
if you could get plus one twenty five on a
(29:10):
coin flip, not a bad bet. I did read Marco's
analysis and he's been talking about LSU a little bit later,
and I think his is a lot more in depth,
and it actually helped convince me even more so that
actually placed this bet because they're just so talented on
both sides of the ball. And Blake Baker now in
his second year at defense, and if you look, the
weakness for LSU was the secondary, and what did they do.
Speaker 5 (29:33):
They went out there and revamped that.
Speaker 3 (29:34):
Secondary, did exactly what you're supposed to do, so the
defense got even better. You got a fifth year starter
at quarterback. Texas and Georgia had a lot have those
tough schedules as well. And when I look at LSU,
they're a top ten power rated team right now to
start the season, at least in my numbers, and Kelly's
got a lot of motivation seeking his first playoff berth.
(29:56):
For a team like LSU, they expect to get to
the playoffs at least, if not challenge for a national championship.
I know the talk from him is like national championship
or bust, that's all we're aiming for. But right now,
just get in the playoffs, brother, and then take it
from there, because you haven't been there in a while,
and you've had the teams to get there. At plus
one twenty five again, I think it's a coin flip
and you're getting plus one twenty five.
Speaker 5 (30:18):
Do you want to lock up your money for that long?
Speaker 3 (30:19):
It's a tough sec but that's the dog that jumped
out at me as far as actually having a legit
shot to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (30:26):
All right, Marco's going with the Big twelve team. Marco,
my first question is how many Big twelve teams do
you think we'll get in the college football playoff? And
why do you think one of them is Utah?
Speaker 4 (30:36):
I think you're gonna probably get two of them in there, Kelly,
be totally honest with you. You gave us the opportunity
to pick what conferences we wanted to do. I'll be
honest with you. My first choice would have been the
Big twelve. But being the gentleman that I am, I
saved at thinking that you would want the Big twelve.
Speaker 5 (30:57):
I snatched it, bro I snatched.
Speaker 4 (30:59):
It, all right. So I just want that out there.
I love Utah. Okay, and let's start with the narrative. Okay,
is Cam Rising questionable? He was questionable every single week
last year, never played and it was a disruption to
this team. This team moved over from the Pac twelve.
(31:21):
Last year, a lot of people thought high things from Utah,
and they should have. They had a great defense. They
had a veteran quarterback that's been injury prone, but if
he was going to be healthy, this team could go far.
Last year, well, he was never healthy, but he was
always hanging around that there was a possibility that he
was going to play, and he never got any continuity
(31:43):
on offense and that killed them. And even though the
offense didn't have that continuity last year, the defense never quit.
It kept them in ball games. Now this year, we
don't have to worry about Cam Rising. He's gone, and
what we've got is a new offensive coordinat this offensive coordinator,
Jason Beck comes in from New Mexico along with he's
(32:05):
bringing the quarterback with him, Devin Dampier, who hit the
transfer portal and followed his offensive coordinator to Utah. This
is a team that's loaded. They've got a big offensive
line to protect the quarterback and they're going to be
able to play that physical brand of football. When you
go back to their success that they had the last
(32:26):
few years in the Pac twelve, why was it? It
was the brand of football they played. They played defense,
which we've seen in the Pac twelve, not many teams
played defense. They were physical. I always referred to the
Pac twelve as a finesse conference, and they didn't like
the physicality of Utah, and it got them success. It
got them to the Pac twelve championship games. Now they
(32:50):
moved to the Big twelve. Isn't that just an extension
of what the Pac twelve was. You've got pass happy teams,
You've got teams that don't play defense. They want to
go up and down the field, play in shootouts. Utah
is a team that will frustrate most of the Big
twelve teams this year and getting the price that we're
(33:10):
getting on them at plus four to ninety to make
the playoffs. I gotta do that because if they win
the Big Twelve, they're getting in plus four ninety to
make the playoffs. We're there. And even if they have
a respectable second place finish in the Big Twelve, because
of the conference and being the big conference that it
(33:32):
is the Big Twelve, you're gonna get two teams in.
So I got two shots to make the playoffs at
plus four ninety with a team I think can win
this conference.
Speaker 1 (33:42):
There are three games Marco. That really concern me about
that Utah team, Arizona State, Texas Tech, and of course
my Kansas State Wildcats. On that note, I'm going to
take another big dog to make the college football playoff.
And it was funny I gave their season win total
out over with my friends at Picket Sports.
Speaker 2 (34:02):
I went on.
Speaker 1 (34:02):
Vsin I talked about this team and I said, hey,
I think that they're a good long shot to win
the SEC.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
But I do think that the most amount.
Speaker 1 (34:09):
Of value lies within this team getting in the college
fotball playoff, and.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
That is Florida. And in fact, Matt Humans called me
a homer for saying that. I'm like, wa wait a minute,
Wait a minute.
Speaker 1 (34:18):
I getting that they've won the national championship for me
in college basketball having a forty to one ticket in pocket,
but this is a completely different team and sport. Anyway,
I don't know how in the world I could possibly
be a homer of this team because I have done
nothing but bet against them as a favorite. And I've
kind of told you guys some spots as home underdogs,
particularly against.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
Tennessee, when to play on this team.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
You guys talk a lot about the coaches and who's
in the hot seat and who has to take a
big step forward this season or they may no longer
have a job. One of those guys' names is Billy Napier.
Look seven wins in twenty twenty three, nine wins in
twenty twenty four. He's going over a season win total.
Second year, started with DJ Lagway and have plenty of
offensive weapons. I think this team has a real shot
(35:05):
to sneak into that twelve team college football playoff. I
mentioned the possibility of a three loss SEC team getting in.
I think Florida having two losses has a real shot
sneak in here.
Speaker 2 (35:16):
I like them plus three sixty.
Speaker 1 (35:19):
We're gonna go around the horn again and keep this
show rolling, similar to the last segment, but this time
we're going season wins and VR now agrees with Marco
Yeah on the Utah youths.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
I love this bet.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
In fact, I released a four percent best bet to
my subscribers on this over seven and a half at
minus one point fifty moving for multiple college football groups,
the same that back in twenty twenty twenty twenty one.
So when I'm getting confirmation, I'm feeling very confident. And
this one now has moved up to minus one seventy five,
so the market agrees with us, and I thought it
(35:55):
had value up the minus two hundred. I thought three
out of four times it actually gets there. Listen, they
finished two and seven in their first year in the
Big twelve, five and seven overall, but they had a
positive thirty five point differential, so if you look at
the Pythagorean wins and losses, the record should have been
much better than five and seven. I like that that
(36:17):
they underperformed based on point scored points allowed.
Speaker 5 (36:20):
Again, their offense only scored.
Speaker 3 (36:21):
Twenty three point three points a game, putting them at
one hundred and sixth in college football. But it was
the defense top twenty five defense that only allowed twenty
point seven points. Okay, now the offense is going to
be much improved. You got an offensive coordinator and quarterback
coming from New Mexico, solid offensive line to protect them,
good weapons for the pass game and rushing, and anything
(36:44):
less than minus two hundred I think's gold here. They
only got improved three games from last season. This team's
got the ability to improve four to five games easily.
Give me over seven and a half. Utah to minus
two hundred all right.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Marco mentioned this in his Mountainous breakdown and now he's
going UNLV under eight and a half wins.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
A little chopping here for the show, Marco.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
Minus one thirty four, little little, little less jockey. But
you know, here's where we're going, Kelly. It's just hard
for me to get excited about this UNLV team this year.
This is a team that the last two years brought,
you know, excitement to Vegas. The unl V football program
(37:28):
has been non existent. They played, you know, in a
beautiful stadium. You would think that the program would do better. Well,
they finally had their guy. Barry Otom brought a sense
of swagger to this team. They had a toughness to them,
and they had two successful seasons. But as I said,
when you're a smaller program like UNLV and you have success,
(37:51):
one thing's gonna happen, and it's gonna happen quickly. That
success is going to land your coach somewhere else. And
Barry otom got the head coach job at Purdue. Now
in comes Dan Mullen and I just talked about that
toughness that Barry Odom had. Do you know last year, Kelly,
you would love this Barry Odom for charity went to
(38:14):
the South Point during a rodeo and actually rode a bull.
Took the team and he rode a bull for charity,
just to show that toughness. And when your coach does
something like that, you're gonna run through walls for him.
I don't see Dan Mullen getting on any bull anytime soon.
Dan Mullen, I didn't like him at Florida. I'm sorry,
(38:36):
and I'm probably never gonna talk to him on a
radio show that I do here in Vegas if he
watches this. But I wasn't a fan of him there,
didn't last at Florida, got fired, Then he went behind
the mic. You know, he was on camera for ESPN
as an analyst, and now he's coming out of the team,
converting this team and another bad sign for UNLV. Nobody's left, Okay,
(39:01):
everybody departed. Anybody that could have stayed didn't. This team
that cupboard's bear. So if the players weren't buying what
Dan Mullen was selling, neither am I. I'm taking under
eight and a half wins. I don't see them getting
near it.
Speaker 1 (39:18):
All right, last, but not least, I will go And
if you guys, watch bet on it the last.
Speaker 2 (39:23):
Couple of years.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
You know, we made fun of Mario Cristoball a lot,
and it wasn't, you know, by his own doing. You
don't want to get Crysta balled, as our good friend
Joe Ranier used to say. And somehow this man won
ten games by the grace of God last year. And
you know what, he's never been able to do do
that back to back in his career. If you guys
recall we bet against the team four times last season
(39:45):
and it took Georgia Tech to finally get us the
outright winner.
Speaker 2 (39:49):
That CAL game.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
Virginia Tech Louisville man cam Ward pulled out tricks against
us to somehow get that w And now we've been
replaced by Carson beck Georgia transfer. And I'm sure that
the Georgia Bulldog fans in the comment section are not
gonna be very happy with me. But let's remember he
was replaced due to injury after being down in the
(40:12):
SEC championship game to Texas. Stockton came in and was
able to win them that.
Speaker 2 (40:16):
Game, and that was all she wrote.
Speaker 4 (40:18):
Now.
Speaker 1 (40:18):
Beckett started his tenure in Coral Gables with a bunch
of drama if you guys follow along on social media.
Speaker 2 (40:24):
And I'm just not sure Miami is the place for
a guy like this. I could be dead wrong. I
could have to eat my words.
Speaker 1 (40:32):
But I think the ultimate test on how Florida and
Miami are both gonna do this year is that game
coming right up around the corner here for week one.
Then Florida's gonna get the win for a week one,
and that is going to solidify Miami under eight and
a half wins plus one thirty Marco really quickly, because
I totally forgot. You were supposed to promo yourself after
(40:55):
your Utah breakdown, and I did not give you that opportunity.
So I want to give you that opportunity right now.
Speaker 4 (41:00):
I appreciate It's probably because I was busting your you
know what with Kansas State. But Kelly, we got a
special deal going over at wager Talk. Last year, Ben
Burns was the number one football handicapper money won college
and pro combined. I was the number two football handicapper
(41:21):
college and pro football money won combined. So what did
we do at wager Talk. We put a special deal together.
You can get both Ben and myself for the entire
football season, college and Pro. You'll go all the way
through the Super Bowl. Get all of our plays, both
handicappers for a combined price of fourteen ninety eight. That
(41:43):
in itself is a fantastic offer for the football season,
but you also get two bonuses. You're gonna get a
seven day flex option for both cappers where you could
use that anytime you want, whenever we have baseball down
the stretch, so you're locked in for all of your football.
(42:05):
You can save those flex picks to use on a
baseball day if one of us have a big play
or something and you want to follow along, or if
you bet the WNBA. And I know everybody just turned
off whenever I said that because people don't like to
bet the WNBA. I have been killing it. See me
with a WNBA play and you like money, you don't
have to watch it, just cash it. We've done extremely
(42:27):
well with WNBA number two the last two years in
money one. So check that offer out at wagertalk dot com.
Speaker 2 (42:34):
All right, let's get into those National Championship picks.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
And as I told the guys, is there anything worse
than someone picking the chalk plays to win the National Championship.
Speaker 2 (42:45):
Yeah, Texas is the front runner.
Speaker 1 (42:47):
You got the usual suspects in Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State.
But I told these guys give me fifteen to one
or better, right, Like, that's fine. You want to tell
me that you think Texas is gonna win it all,
but give me something juicy.
Speaker 2 (43:01):
Just for reference.
Speaker 1 (43:03):
The five biggest underdogs to ever win the national championship
twenty excuse me two thousand and two, Ohio State was
nineteen to one. USC won at the following year as
a twenty to one underdog LSU in twenty nineteen thirty
three to one, Ohio State twenty fourteen, forty four to one,
(43:24):
and the biggest dog to ever win the national championship,
the Auburn Tigers, as at.
Speaker 2 (43:31):
Fifty to one. So VR, let's get into your national
championship pick.
Speaker 1 (43:37):
But before we do, tell me what you got going
on over for the college football season at wager Talk.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
I wish this was live because I just bet a
doubles Cincinnati atp the men's doubles, So hopefully if this
was live, I'd be giving that out. But yeah, I
got the season package of NFL and college football. I
combined it together so you get all those futures already
nine in therecluding a five percent best bet season win
total in the NFL. There'll be a lot more between
(44:05):
now and when the season kicks off. Staying more selective,
but definitely worth tying up some money on those futures
because the RII just has been so good long term.
And yeah, other than that, week by week, and of
course I got a five percent going in the UFC
this Saturday.
Speaker 5 (44:22):
So excited.
Speaker 3 (44:23):
Busy couple of days, busy couple of months ahead and
this college football season, NFL season ready to do some damage.
Speaker 5 (44:30):
So make sure you tune in weekend week out. Bet
on it baby.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
Yeah, I just realized you and Marco both have the
same national champion pick. So I'm gonna let you take
the helm first. Then we'll go to Marco to see
if he's got anything to add.
Speaker 3 (44:44):
Yeah, and it's because we had to go with fifteen
to one or higher. And it's funny, it was probably
fourteen to one, and then yesterday when I look at
got the the it was a fifteen to one, and
just going back, I don't want to take the time
to repeat myself, but I just think LSQU is that
team that if things go right, like they could really
make a run. They're that loaded on both sides of
the ball. That the problem is they're in one of
(45:05):
the toughest conferences and because of that, you got to
have some luck go your way, like you know, some
injuries on other not wishing bad on others, but that's
what you need.
Speaker 5 (45:15):
Some bad things to happen to the Georgias of the world, to.
Speaker 3 (45:19):
The Alabamas, to Texas, and then they have a shot
to make a run again four seasons in. You gotta
do something, bro like you have the talent. So again,
I'll let Marco take it from there, but I like
LSU at fifteen to one.
Speaker 5 (45:35):
I think it's live.
Speaker 1 (45:36):
All right, Marco, let's hear your analysis on why you
think Brian Kelly is headed back to the national championship.
Speaker 4 (45:43):
Okay, Kelly, I've given you a lot of grief on
the show so far. I'm gonna give VR a little bit.
I think he fabricated that fifteen to one just because
he was scared to get yelled at by you and
see band slide. Okay, because Kelly wanted fifteen to one
or more. My opening line, guys in our slack channel
for our notes for the game is I've got LSU
(46:06):
at fourteen and one, fourteen to one, just to piss
Kelly off because it's not fifteen to one, all right,
So I do Like.
Speaker 2 (46:15):
God, I'm just a nice girl from Kansas. Why would
I ever get mad at you?
Speaker 4 (46:21):
If you guys ever heard her yell at me when
I screw up on social media? The sixty four year
old trying to do TikTok and Instagram. She forgets how
old I am. But we're trying. She has given me
some love lately on it, so I'm getting I must
be getting better. Look at LSU. I look at this team,
and the first thing I'm gonna say, yes, this is
(46:43):
year four from coach Kelly. That's important because now there
is no more excuses. You've got all the players that
you want. You know, normally it used to be, you know,
year two to year three were the big years where
you saw it. But now because of the portal, it
has to be even fatter. Teams expect results quicker because
you're bringing that big influx and making wholesale changes. They's
(47:08):
got everybody they won, and it starts at quarterback. You've
got a fifth year senior quarterback in Garrett neuss Meyer
going for that. This team is going to be good defensively,
they're going to be excellent offensively. And you look at him.
He's coming off a season where he threw for over
four thousand yards, he had twenty nine tds and as
(47:29):
I said, it looks even better this year on paper
for that offense. The LSU defense was good last year.
They held nine of thirteen opponents to twenty seven or
fewer points. And I know twenty seven maybe sounds a
little bit high, but in today's college football, no, it's not.
We've seen a lot more scoring in college football. Holding
(47:52):
nine of thirteen to twenty seven or less is huge,
and I look for this team to continue what they
did last year. They were a balanced offense. What that
translated to was over thirty two minutes per game time
of possession that was sixteenth best in the country. Those
are all the ingredients that you need to win a
(48:13):
national championship. Good defense, a playmaker at quarterback, and be
able to have a balanced offense that you're not one dimensional.
I think they make a serious run in the SEC,
gets them into the playoffs, and once they're in the playoffs.
I'll take my chances with this team at that eye
popping fourteen to one.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
Sorry, Kelly, uh see, Then then I just had to
go do something like this, a team that's not ever
going to win the national championship, but I do think
there's an immense amount of value. We mentioned the amount
of parody in the Big Twelve. There's a five horse
race there. We mentioned that we think at least two
Big twelve teams are going to get in to the
college football playoff, and I thought, you know what, I'm
(49:00):
kind of a little crazy. This isn't gonna happen. But
let's look at the team that has spent a godly
amount of money oil money. In fact, they spent more
money than ninety four percent of.
Speaker 2 (49:14):
The schools in college football. And in fact, the past.
Speaker 1 (49:18):
Two years they have fifteen x their nil spending budget.
They got seventeen guys part as part of their new
rebuild just for this year. Yeah, I'm talking about Joey
McGuire's squad Texas Tech. At one hundred to one, I
think this team has a real opportunity to play last
year's Arizona State, right, A team that kind of came
(49:39):
out of nowhere and got into the College Football Playoff
after winning the Big Twelve. I think Texas Tech has
value going over their season win total. I think they
have value going to win the Big Twelve. And no,
they're not going to win the National Championship. And I
know I'm supposed to pick a national champion, but everything
is so chalky. Vre mentioned there was not one team
that was one and a half points two points better
(49:59):
than so I thought, you know what, I'm just gonna
go off the deep end. Texas Tech is currently one
hundred to one to win the Natty.
Speaker 2 (50:06):
Again.
Speaker 1 (50:07):
I just want to see this team be able to
get into the College Football Playoff, and being able to
do that means that we're alive and we have other
opportunities to make some money. So give me Texas Tech
over their season win total' to give me Texas Tech
to win the Big Twelve, and why not throw a
little flyer on them to win the National Championship. Let's
(50:28):
bring the guys back in. This was our first show
back together as the Gang. We're also currently going to
do some NFL preview shows, which we're very excited about.
If you're looking for more information on that, head over
to the wager Talking YouTube channel and then of course
live from Ireland. That's all right, guys, I'm gonna be
doing the first college football bat on An episode. There's
(50:50):
only five games, but we've got to do an episode
and I'm gonna try not to drink too.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Many Guinnesses before that one.
Speaker 1 (50:56):
So thank you guys again for hanging out with us
here on the wager Talk YouTube channel as well as
your various social platforms. Don't forget to hit that like
button and of course subscribe so you never miss another
episode of bet On It
Popular Podcasts
NFL Daily with Gregg Rosenthal
Gregg Rosenthal and a rotating crew of elite NFL Media co-hosts, including Patrick Claybon, Colleen Wolfe, Steve Wyche, Nick Shook and Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic get you caught up daily on all the NFL news and analysis you need to be smarter and funnier than your friends.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com