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March 19, 2025 • 42 mins
In this special March Madness themed edition of Bet On It, Kelly Stewart, Joe Raineri, Marco D'Angelo, Teddy Covers, Bill Krackman, Gianni the Greek, Ralph Michaels and Andy Lang gather to give picks and predictions surrounding the 2025 NCAA Tournament! Who are the underdogs to target? Which favorites will punch their tickets to the Final Four? Join the crew for Bet On It as we break down the 2025 NCAA Tournament from a betting perspective while helping you complete your brackets!
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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to bet on It. The March Madness edition games
are going to be tipping off here really shortly. We're
gonna get through those Thursday and Friday games. Of course,
we've got some TNA with Ralph Michaels VR. You guys
know him as Yochni. The Greek's gonna be here with
the Steam Report, Andy Lang with some props for everyone,

(00:20):
and we have a new segment here. We're getting the
best bet from Bill Krackenberger himself, of course, best bets
from all my guys, Joe, Marco and Teddy. Welcome in.
I'm very excited to you know, sit down on my
couch or do nothing for the next four days. We
are going to have last Call, so I do have
to work a little bit where you can answer all

(00:41):
of your questions there on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
But first I want to get you guys' opinion on
a couple of these bigger marquee matchups. Let's get into Thursday.
This one's one that I already bet seven pm, well,
seven to ten pm Eastern, excuse me. Arkansas is a
five point underdog to the University of Kansas total one six.

(01:02):
Margo already bet KU earlier today minus four and a half.
I like them in this spot, but I'm gonna let
you give some of the analysis.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
Well, Kelly, you look at this one and we've got,
you know, contrasting styles here.

Speaker 3 (01:15):
Arkansas is gonna want to.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Go up tempo in this game, where Kansas is gonna
want to slow things down. There's gonna be a lot
of love for Arkansas getting points here. They're the SEC
team and everybody, that's all they've talked about in the SEC,
it's the greatest conference in college basketball. How many teams
they got into the tournament. But this line is telling

(01:36):
you something. Yeah, there's a lot of teams from the
SEC that deserve to be in the tournament obviously, but
they're not getting the respect with the guys that do
this professionally. And that's the Vegas lines makers is we
see Arkansas and underdog, and when you dig deeper and
you look at Arkansas outside of the conference play this year,

(01:57):
they were just four and nine against the spread. I
believe the Kansas defense is going to be the difference
in this game in the way they control the tempo.
As they said to me, this is a correlated parlay.
If you like Arkansas, you're gonna like the over. If
you like Kansas, you're gonna like the under. Well, I
lean to Kansas in this game. But I'm gonna go

(02:19):
ahead and take the under in this one. I think
that's the better play right now for the show, I'm
gonna go under. Kansas has played eleven non conference games
this year. In those eleven games, the under cash ten
of eleven times, let's go ahead take under. Lean to Kansas.

(02:40):
But again correlated parlay Kansas and the under.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
Joe Rinier, You're up next. I have a feeling you
also like the Kansas Jayhawks like I do here. I
understand that they have had a little bit of a
down season, right, Losing twelve games is just unacceptable there
west of Kansas City. But I do think that they're
still a very talented team, there by far the most
experienced team in college basketball.

Speaker 4 (03:05):
Well, and that's the whole thing, cal Right, how much
does experience really matter to you in these types of situations.
We certainly know there's not a whole lot of coaching
edge here between these two guys. They got a whole
lot of experience themselves. But I agree with what Marco
had to say because I believe that if you leaning

(03:25):
towards Arkansas, then they're gonna have to score, and they're
gonna have to score. I think a lot they're gonna
want to go up tempo here. We've seen Kansas have
some issues sometimes with these up tempo teams. Here, I
think points are coming. I do think Arkansas is gonna
have a shot to win this game late, and I

(03:46):
do think Kansas ultimately will pull it out ultimately because
of that experience and Bill self. But I don't see
how we're not getting it over in this one. More importantly, Kel,
I think we're gonna get a ton of points early
in this game as well. So I'm also looking at
that first half total, and I think once adjustments come in,

(04:09):
that might be a different story in the second half.

Speaker 3 (04:11):
But this would not shock me at all.

Speaker 4 (04:12):
Both these teams come out firing and we get a
whole lot of points very quickly in this game.

Speaker 1 (04:18):
Sendy Covers, my favorite contrarian on the panel. Tell me
why you like Arkansas here?

Speaker 5 (04:24):
Yeah, all this Kansas love, Kansas love, I'm not seeing it,
all right, And let's talk about Kansas first, all right.
I know Kansas hasn't lost in the first round since
two thousand and six. That being said, they've been bounced
in the first weekend four times the last five years.
Was Kansas good down the stretch? This team was good early. Heck,

(04:45):
they beat Arkansas on an exhibition back in October.

Speaker 3 (04:48):
They were fourteen and four.

Speaker 5 (04:50):
In late January, they were leading Houston with twenty seconds
to play in overtime. They blew that game and since
that time, twelve ats their last eighteen games. Kansas has
the talent, but they're not executing particularly well. So I
understand this team has been there, but Arkansas is a

(05:14):
very different team right now than they were all year
flat out. The Hogs went to the SEC Tournament, they
had five healthy players.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
That's not going to be the case here.

Speaker 5 (05:24):
You know, we says if it should be back Flann,
the point guard who started at point the first eighteen
game of season.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
He's not starting at the point here. I would not
be on.

Speaker 5 (05:34):
The Arkansas side if Flann was supposed to start in
this ball games.

Speaker 3 (05:38):
Don't want a team transitioning point guards at this stage
of the season. But he's supposed to come off the bench.

Speaker 5 (05:44):
Arkansas has been real good in these first round games,
all right, six and one. Since two thousand and eight
Arkansas started SEC play, they lost five in a row.
They had a bad loss at LSU. Since that time,
this team has just gotten better and better. Coach cal
catching points count me in. Razorbacks are live on Thursday.

Speaker 1 (06:06):
Coach Cali Perry thirty two, twenty five and three during
the NCAA Tournament. It's a lot of games. Speaking of experience,
very experienced head coach there as well. All right, we're
gonna move along. Go check out the Steam report from
VR where he's gonna bring us a look behind the
laptop screen and let us know where all that chart
money is coming from.

Speaker 6 (06:27):
Thanks Kel, I got a lot of good information for you,
and real quickly. If you want to see my bracket,
just on a head on over to Greek Underscore Gambler
on Twitter. I got my bracket up. I picked Auburn
to win the National Championship, picking Auburn power rating wise.
I do have Duke and Florida at the top like
everyone else, but I went with Auburn and have Gonzaga

(06:51):
getting there pretty far too. They're one of my long
shots that I'm pretty high on. Now let's jump into
some of the sharper action.

Speaker 3 (06:58):
On Thursday.

Speaker 6 (07:00):
We'll start off with seven seventy four BYU minus the
two and a half on BYU and some moneyline action
as well. Clemson at minus seven and a half. That's
opposite public money that likes McNee. State jumped down to
Kansas minus four to four and a half against Arkansas.
Also Texas A and m minus the seven. It's seven

(07:23):
and a half in a lot of places. Whenever the
seven it dropped the seven somebody picked that one off.
Yale is a public darling on Thursday, and Wisconsin minus
sixteen and a half, Montana another public darling, and finally
Ucla getting short money early at minus four and a
half and minus five. Some of the Friday action for you.

(07:49):
Not as heavy for Friday, but here come some of
the signs for you. Michigan State minus the seventeen against
Brian Brian also public darling on Friday, Alibama minus to
twenty two, another one where the public's on Robert Morris,
and finally Arizona at minus fourteen.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
Akron is one of the more.

Speaker 6 (08:09):
Heavily one sided public bet games, so you may not
see too much line movement because of the influx of
recreational money that comes in during March Madness. So even
though the wise guys are steaming some of these sides,
if anything, is just minimizing the risk that the books have,
so they don't really need to move it as significantly

(08:31):
as a lot of these totals. That's why I'm not
sharing totals because a lot of those lines moved already.
You could pick them off on your own, and I've
shared on wade to Talk today. I've shared in the
steam room the easiest way that you can determine the headfakes,
so you could come back the other way and get
a really good number late when they've manipulated a line.

(08:51):
So I'll throw prop at is too kel. Finally, we
bet Saint John's to get to the Final four at
a nice price, and like I said, Olburn to cut
down the nets.

Speaker 3 (09:05):
That's going to do it.

Speaker 6 (09:06):
I wish you'd do some damage throughout the March Madness.
Don't forget we got Sweet sixteen Elite eight Final four
championship games. So make sure you have some dry powder
on the side, because the value that you will find
over the next three or four weeks unprecedented in college basketball.

Speaker 3 (09:25):
Best of luck, to do damage.

Speaker 1 (09:27):
Thank you to the Greek gambler. You guys can check
him out every single day for the next four days
with me on wager Talk's Last Call, taking you guys
right up until tip off. I mentioned to start the show,
we have a new segment where Bill Krackenberger joins us
and brings us a best bet for the first round
in the NCAA tournament.

Speaker 7 (09:47):
Hey, Bill Krackenmerger out in about town here running around,
still making some plays. You know, this first half market
shocked me this year. You know, literally we have twenty
hours to go, and some of the biggest sportsbooks in
the world do not have first half lines up yet.
Some of them just put them up though. Laying one
ten on both sides very important to me. Uh there's
some of these new books to the country, some of

(10:09):
the biggest ones one fifteen both sides. I mean one
of these just use a mask and a gun.

Speaker 3 (10:13):
I don't.

Speaker 7 (10:13):
I don't understand what's going on here. I really don't.
Uh So, yesterday, guys, the first day, first big day
of my plays. Really with wader Talk, we start right
out with getting ahead of the market, ahead of the
moves is vital to your sports betting success so vital.
The first game was north Bridge that I had the
north Bridge and Stanford over one fifty two and a

(10:37):
half I sent out, had it out for you guys,
went up to one fifty seven and a half one
fifty eight. I even seen that close. Sure enough, Lan's
one fifty seven. That's why you have to be on
the right side of the moves, and you have to
get ahead of the market. You know, it's really vital
to your success. Even the other game that I sent out,
I sent out markotsas state minus three minus twenty and

(10:58):
it closed minus six everywhere. Literally, I see minus six
minus some money. Now granted it didn't matter in that game.
They blew them out, but still, these are key numbers.
Three five, three four five, key numbers. Get ahead of
the market. Listen, my stuff, it's different than a lot
of other people. I understand. I'm gonna have you ahead
of the moves eighty percent of the time. If I

(11:20):
put something out there, it's gonna move in your favor.
So you're gonna have CLV, which is closing line value,
and don't I don't want don't. There's some people on
Twitter and stuff, total idiots saying closing line value doesn't matter.
Trust me, I'm doing this almost thirty years. If you
have closing line value in the end, you don't have
to know a single guy on a team. You don't
have to know what color their uniform is, you don't

(11:41):
have to know anything. You don't to know the coach.
If you lay three and a line six by the
time the game tips off, brother, that's as strongest morphine
you will win in the end. I'll just tell you
that long term today. So I'm gonna give you guys
a couple of little a couple of little freebies here
to talk about. I am betting Montana first half plus
ten line just came up. I'm actually running around town

(12:04):
right now putting some money in one of the apps
that I usually don't use. Because I've seen a plus
ten minus so five. I'm so sick. I can't just
lay one ten. I gotta get the best of the
line by five cents, only because I'm trying to bet
a couple thousand on it. So Nebraska, Omaha. I talked
about also plus eleven and a half. You may even
get plus eleven and a half minus so five. These
numbers are vital of course I'm talking about first halfs

(12:26):
even but you may even get a better number on
some of these dogs because the public's coming in now.
The town is sold out. This is unbelievable. Maybe the
first year ever that I've ever seen the town be
more sold out, more people coming in than the super Bowl.
We just had the super Bowl here. There was like
fifty dollars rooms in town. March madness. Different story. Town's packed.

(12:47):
Everyone's here, which means a lot of those little volume
betters that are fifties, one hundreds, and thirties and twenty.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
They add up.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
The sportsbooks have to.

Speaker 7 (12:55):
Move those lines a lot on volume because they'll have
so much money on one side. May be able to
find a half a point here and there again on
these dogs. So make sure when you if you come
to town, you should have more than one app. I'll
tell you right now, even though I'm not allowed to
play at stations. They threw me out for winning stations
William Hill. You should have to win maybe Boyd which

(13:18):
is over there at the Bolt Coast or Orleans. Have
those places funded. If you're serious, and I mean serious.
When I say serious, I mean you bet one hundred
dollars that's serious to me. One hundred dollars or more.
You should have multiple apps funded and know that you
need those apps because here in town you're gonna get
that little extra half a point here and there. So anyway,

(13:39):
good luck, good luck, guys. I wanted to stop in
here and says I'm on the road running around, and
we had a nice day. We started out three and one,
the only ones we had lost by a point, and
good start with over here at wager Talk. Appreciated and
talk to you guys real soon.

Speaker 1 (13:53):
Thank you to Crack. You guys can catch him on
wager talk dot com. He's gonna be all over the
place here shortly. Let's get into the Friday game that
I have to talk about, another one that I bet.
Maybe that's why I did the show schedule. Marco DiAngelo.
Friday nine to twenty five. Eastern Oklahoma is a five
and a half point underdog to the back to back champs,

(14:15):
the Yukon Huskies. Total one forty seven and a half. Marco,
you know who I bet in this one. Let's just
be real. I took Porter Mo Moser and the Oklahoma
Sooners and I already hate myself, Like, let's be wrong.
I complain about a lot of these teams for a
better part of the season, and then we get to
March and I say, I want to put my hard
earned money on them one last time. Dan Hurley one

(14:38):
of the best coaches against the spread in the NCAA tournament,
and I'm all nervous.

Speaker 2 (14:45):
Well, Kelly, you know you shouldn't be. Oklahoma was an
ATM down the stretch, covering seven in a row for
their backers as they enter the tournament. Oklahoma twelve and
two against the spread when they faced the team with
a percentage of sixty percent or better. So they did
it against the good teams as well. Yukon for most

(15:06):
of the season was a money burner, but they did
go five and one straight up down the stretch, four
to one and one against the spread. So have they
turned the corner. Well, you know what you're gonna get
with Yukon. They're gonna play tenacious defense, as they have
held eight of their last twelve opponents to forty percent
shooting or less. But the reality has been because Yukon

(15:30):
has been back to back national champs, and everybody remembers
of how dominant they were last year. In the year
before against the point spread in the tournament. I think
they're a little bit overpriced. They've been overpriced all year,
and I think they're overpriced here coming into this one.
Yukon's had a habit. Whether it's been that they just

(15:52):
you know, board with the regular season and waiting for
the tournament, or you had to replace a lot of
pieces from last year and this team just has those
slow starts. But if you were betting against Yukon first
half all year, you were making money twenty and five
to the spread. If you bet against Yukon first half wager,

(16:14):
you know what, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
We've got an Oklahoma team that's hot against the spread.
I think Yukon's been overpriced all year. I'm gonna ride
that first half wager. Gonna go ahead and take Oklahoma
plus the two and a half first half. I'm still
in Joe's Thunder. Maybe I'm getting old and I want
to take a nap for the second half, but whatever,

(16:35):
I'm going first half Oklahoma on Friday.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
You know, Marko, you got to get your own stitch
here for the show. Like we've only been doing this
for like five years now. It's still Jones, come on,
I gotta go wait. I can't wait for Oklahoma to
get blown out of the second half. And then I
hate myself. Teddy covers I was giving over Joe because
now I have to find a new bet instead of
go home the first half. This total is really interesting

(17:03):
to me. As Marco mentioned, the Yukon Huskies have been
a better second half team, right, and a lot of
people rush to back them there, and that is because
they can put points on the board. One for seven
and a half seems a little low if you will
not for you Ukon.

Speaker 3 (17:20):
I mean, let's put it this way.

Speaker 5 (17:21):
Yukon last year in the tournament six and oh straight up,
six and Oh against the spread, winning all those games
by double digit margins. I think all of them by
fifteen points or more, and six and Oh to the
under as well. My clients and I cast a couple
of tickets in the final four last year backing Yukon
under the total, and obviously in the previous tournament Yukon
six and oh straight up six and Oh against this

(17:42):
president of the LEA did cash overs.

Speaker 3 (17:44):
On that first run.

Speaker 5 (17:45):
But this ain't those teams, all right, This is a
different Yukon team. This is Yukon twenty twenty five, and
I mean, look the frost. You know Liam McNeely and
three with him in the lineup. That being said, Joel
Nardi actually wrote something that I thought was intelligent, but
I don't always love. But he said he called them

(18:07):
a hack happy roster, and I agree. They're number three
hundred and twenty five in the nation in free throw
late rate allowed. Last year they had kling on in
the low post and they didn't foul. This year, they're
fouling everyone and they don't have that low post muscle.
And look, let's not understate what Porter Moser's teams has done.

Speaker 3 (18:26):
All right.

Speaker 5 (18:27):
You know, Moser and sister Jean got Loyola Chicago to
the Final four and a truly memorable run. All right,
there's seven and oats their last seven all is underdogs,
four outright wins during that span. But the three losses
I want to talk about. They lost to Kentucky twice,
both by a single point. Both games they led with
twenty seconds left. They had a three point lost to

(18:48):
Old Miss another game that they led with less than
twenty seconds left. So even when they're losing, they're in
these games right to the final buzzer. This time of year,
I worry about NBA talent. The NBA talent Jeremiah Fears.
If you haven't watched this frosh point guard play, watch.

Speaker 3 (19:04):
Them this weekend.

Speaker 5 (19:07):
And certainly by saying this weekend, I think Oklahoma's live
to win the game, you can. I didn't say. I
had this whole rock chalk go home thing ready for
the Kansas, and I forgot to deliver it. But let's
go national title, National title, first round exit.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
Yukon's going home.

Speaker 1 (19:27):
Oooh, Teddy, I got my little list of my three
team underdogs Oklahoma money line. Oh, there's Summers circles. I
might have to join you there. We'll see who else
I end up coming up with for the three outrights.
Joe Ranieri, This is gonna be an interesting thing if
Teddy covers is correct and Oklahoma does win this game.

(19:49):
But I got to hear your thoughts my sprinkling on
the money line.

Speaker 3 (19:53):
Well, it's interesting.

Speaker 4 (19:54):
Good. I think Teddy brings up a couple of good points. Listen,
I'm a big Porter Moser fan, but let's not also,
let's not forget they were what six and twelve in
the SEC and somehow still manages to get into the tournament.
Let's just keep adding teams. Really, no, I'm sure there's
no mediocre basketball coming up over the next couple of
days at all. But I will say this, down the stretch,

(20:17):
it feels like OHU has been playing desperation basketball because
of the lack of success they've had in the SEC.
Where I mean, over the last month, every game has
been do or die for them, and they have been
showing up some might say maybe playing a little bit
above their head. And the problem that I have here
with Yukon is the fouling. Well, listen, Yukon is going

(20:40):
to have the height advantage. Oklahoma not a very big team,
actually one of the smaller sized teams in the country.
Yukon's going to dominate the glass. They're going to dominate
at the rim. But along with that comes with Yukon
big men fouling all the damn time. And the one
thing that Portamoser and oh You can do is they

(21:01):
can hit their free throws. It feels like there are
going to be opportunities for ou to rack up the
points in this one here, and let's be realistic. I
can't I think Yukon has the advantage where it matters
in this game. I don't think there's a better coaching
staff as far as scouting and game planning goes in

(21:22):
the country than what they have there in Yukon. They
are not the Yukon of old. They're a little overvalued.
But if they can cut back on the fouling dominate
the boards, they're gonna win this game. They'll probably win
it rather easily, but knowing how much they just love
to get the whistle blown their way and we all
love to see how Hurley screams and yells, I'm thinking

(21:45):
maybe an OU team total over Kelly.

Speaker 3 (21:48):
How is that?

Speaker 4 (21:49):
Because I think they're gonna have an opportunity to put
plenty of points on this board. I think it's gonna
be close, and ultimately wouldn't be a shock if this
thing lands where who wins it at the free throw line,
which would give all you a pretty good opportunity to
get it done.

Speaker 1 (22:04):
All right, we're getting spicy now. I don't think this
is a good transition, so I'm just gonna cut that off.
Time to talk to the proptologist Andy Lang. There is
a joke there about spicy and I just I just
had to let it go.

Speaker 8 (22:18):
Thanks Kelly. Let's do a couple props have some fun here.
Let's take a look at Bennett starts over one and
a half made threes. This is in the Drake Missouri game.
Starts has gone over and eleven out of his last
fourteen games. I love his attempts five and a half
threes per game the last eleven and he's shooting forty
four zero point five percent from three, So if he

(22:38):
gets another five or six attempts, I like him to
hit two. Best part about this play is Missouri is
two hundred and thirteenth in three point percentage defense, so
he does get a nice matchup. Take Bennett Startz over
one and a half made threes, and then let's also
take a look at MARKL. Sutton forward for the Omaha Mavericks.
This is a fifteen versus number two seed against Saint
John's and listen is tough matchup. Say John's is a

(23:01):
really good defensive team. Something's gone over in fourteen straight games,
last ten games, fifteen shots per game, and he's shooting
fifty two percent from the field. Also sneaky is he's
making six point one free throws. Per game the last ten,
so you get five or six made free throws. It
makes this prop much easier to obtain any averaging thirty
three point six minutes. So I feel like he's gonna

(23:22):
get a lot of usage in this game, even though
it's a very, very tough matchup. So those are a
couple props to have fun with in the first round, Kelly,
if it could be just serious for just a minute.
There is a lot of money to be made in
the tournament, but there's also a lot of money to
be made outside the tournament, and that is what we
specialize in. We are running a seven day pass. We
are up twenty eight units in the last seven days,

(23:44):
and we're up over eighty units in twenty twenty five,
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(24:04):
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Speaker 3 (24:17):
Al Oh, you.

Speaker 1 (24:18):
Guys know what these glasses are four and that means
it's time for some TNA with Ralph Michaels, the guy
with all the guides over at wager talk dot com. Ralph,
what have you dug up for us for the first
round of March Madness.

Speaker 9 (24:32):
I am starting off with a Friday best bet and
giving you two March Madness trends and angles, including a
system that is twenty and four eighty three percent and
applies to three teams. You see, I have the pink
pen today and the background may be familiar. A little
editing magic coming up here as I had a dog

(24:55):
said Kelly's Dogs for the last few days. Let's talk
March Madness, guys. I'm going to look at a Friday game.
It tips off at seven ten in eastern and it's
Detroit Trojans plus the points versus Kentucky. Couple systems to
share with you from the free wager Talk March Madness

(25:15):
guide that's on my homepage. When a team is off
three consecutive double digit wins like Troy, and they're a
dog of seven or higher. Those teams since twenty thirteen
have gone seventy six point two percent against the spread.
They've obviously won their conference tournament. They wanted an impressive

(25:37):
fashion with three double digit wins again, and that's positive
momentum into Round one. If you want to know what
the record is for teams off back to back wins,
is a double digit dog and a dog now of
seven or more almost as good twenty seven to nine,
seventy five percent for that record. So both situations very positive. Now,

(26:01):
how about this, how about teams that have more than
ten days of rest versus an opponent with six days
of rest. When you have the Big Ten and the
SEC and those conferences that play that final weekend, teams
that play two, three, four, sometimes five straight games really
can get worn out and they're playing four days later.

(26:23):
Teams in Round one with at least ten days of
rest versus teams with six days of rest or less
twenty nine to nineteen, sixty point six percent against the spread. Now,
when you look at the Troy Trojans, they hide for
the Sun Belt regular season crown. They won the Sunbelt Tournament.
They're on a six and Oats run an impressive six

(26:45):
and Oats run covering by seven point five points per
game away from home, twelve and three against the spread
their last fifteen games. That is eighty percent as a
dog since the seven first four and one against the spread.
And guess what that Ats loss by half a point.

(27:07):
Troy's biggest weakness this year, no question, turno over the
ball on offense. They are number three thirty three in
the country. It's a positive matchup peer as Kentucky is
one of the worst teams forcing turnovers. On defense, they
are number three hundred and forty one in the country.
So Troy's biggest efficiency isn't in this matchup. Troy is

(27:31):
a very good two point shooting team, number seventy seven.
Kentucky's three point d is very good number thirty in
the country, but their two point defense is over two fifty.
And lastly, when I look at Kentucky away from home
that means road games or neutral games. Kentucky is not
only zero to six ats this season, they have failed

(27:55):
to cover by ten point seven points per game. Guys,
I am so proud of the twenty twenty five March
Madness Guide that's free at wager talk dot com. You
can head to my homepage wt buzz backslash RM. It
talks about picking national champions with the Ken Palm Rating,

(28:16):
Conference rankings over the last four years. Team rankings over
the last four years, see by seed and round by
round and nineteen trends and angles to hopefully get you
several extra winners for this March Madness tournament. Two situations
I want to share for you. First, friends, don't let

(28:37):
friends bet many overs in round one of March Madness.
Going back the last three years, if you bet every
game under the total in round one, you've cashed fifty
nine point eight percent of the time. That's right, fifty
one overs and seventy six unders. And if you eliminate

(28:58):
those totals under one twenty eight, those lowest totals, that
number goes to thirty seven point six to the over
or sixty two point four percent to the under. So
I always look at unders first. I'm not saying not
that over in round one, but be cognizant of what
the recent history has shown us. As teams playing in

(29:21):
these big new NBA venues with different site lines, do
tend to go under the total, and finally from the
guide as well. Let's take a look at top three seeds.
So you have the four number one seeds, the four
number two seeds, and the four number three seeds in
round one, the top twelve teams in the country. If

(29:42):
you blindly bet them the last three years, you've gone
twenty three to thirteen sixty three point nine percent. If
those teams didn't play the final couple days of the
tournament and they have at least four days of rest,
that number goes to sixty five point six percent. And
how about this. If those top three seed teams have

(30:05):
more rest than four days and a low total of
one forty eight or less, those teams are twenty and
four against the spread eighty three point three percent. Three
teams lineup, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Houston all apply
to the eighty three percent system. Best of luck, March Madness.

(30:28):
It's been a great college basketball season, and thanks for
tuning in to my segment.

Speaker 1 (30:33):
All right, thanks sir Ralph. He is the best, and
now that I got him out of my office, I'm
back to work because it's time for best mats. Let's
get into a quick little promotion before we hear from everybody.
Right now at wager talk dot com, you can get
sixteen days free if you buy the month of April.
We're giving you the rest of March free of charge.

(30:57):
Marco D'Angelo, can you please give me your best bet
for of the NCAA tournament.

Speaker 2 (31:04):
Yeah, Kelly, we're gonna take a look at a game.
We're gonna look at Saint Mary's as they play Vanderbilt.
Just tell you that special that we've got running good
time to do it. You're gonna get April. You know,
college basketball will be over, but you'll have hockey playoffs,
NBA playoffs, baseball season, and guys, you'll pick up the

(31:25):
rest of March free. I've got a five percent coming
in the first round, so be sure to check that out.
That play alone would sell for thirty five dollars, and
you know the record twenty four and seven with those plays.
The last thirty one for my best bet for the show,
we're gonna lay the points with Saint Mary's Vanderbilt. They
come in here out of the SEC. And I thought

(31:48):
it was funny. You know, the best conference in basketball,
fourteen teams in and how many of those powerhouse SEC
teams are getting points in the first round. So much
for them being the best conference. There are some better
teams out there and this is one of them. Saint
Mary's lost their last game. Okay, it was an absolute,

(32:09):
you know, fistfight type of a game. It was fifty
eight fifty one against Gonzaga. It was for the West
Coast Conference championship. That game was here in Las Vegas. Now,
those two teams, it seems like it's an annual passage
between those two playing for the championship game. They are
the two elite teams out of that conference. But Saint
Mary's had won the two regular season games against Gonzaga.

(32:32):
They also won the championship game last year against Gonzaga.
So Gonzaga came to play that night. They didn't want
to lose four in a row to Saint Mary's and
Saint Mary's had their worst game of the season. They
shot thirty eight percent for the game, They were zero
for sixteen from three point range, and they were just

(32:53):
getting killed on the inside by Gonzaga. Even with everything
that went wrong, and they had a season high eighteen
turnovers in a game. They generally have only seven, eight
or nine turnovers on average, and they turned it over
eighteen times and they still only lost by seven. That
tells me how good this team is. And getting that

(33:16):
loss out of the way. They had won eighteen in
a row before that, I think that's better. You don't
have all of that pressure of a long winning streak
as you're heading into March Madness. This team got some
experience last year in the tournament. They didn't hang around long,
but still they got the experience, and those guys are
back this year. This is a senior laded team. Five starters.

(33:40):
Three of the five are seniors. Two of them are guards,
and that's what you want. You want that experience in
the guard position when you're in tournament time. The other senior, yeah,
he's the center. The three key pieces of this team.
I look for Saint Mary's to roll over Vanderbilt, lay
the points with them. And you talk about defense, this

(34:03):
team plays defense. They have held twelve straight opponents to
sixty seven or fewer points. Seven of those twelve didn't
even make it out of the fifties. We're gonna go ahead,
take Saint Mary's. Lay it in this one. I look
for them to win by double digits.

Speaker 1 (34:22):
I like it. Marco double digit winner, Joe Ranieri, do
you have a double digit winner?

Speaker 2 (34:28):
Oh?

Speaker 4 (34:29):
I think I might here Cow because I'm gonna go
to old reliable.

Speaker 3 (34:35):
And if it's one thing I believe we.

Speaker 4 (34:37):
Can all agree on is that when it comes to
coaching in March Madness, there is one guy that seems
to be heads and tails over most, and that is
Dana Altman and the Oregon Ducks, who find themselves having
to travel oh a good five miles. It feels like
given the fact that they are in the western part

(35:00):
of the country or cal and they get to welcome
in a team that's got to travel all the way
from Virginia in Liberty to take on what is going
to be a very shall we say, pro Oregon crowd
in nearby Seattle here, and not to mention that you've
got a one trick pony here with Liberty. They're a

(35:21):
three point shooting team. If they hit him, it's going
to be interesting. If they don't, it's not going to
be interesting. It's going to be a double digit blowout
for Oregon. I'm not quite sure exactly how Liberty, being
one of the smaller sized teams in the country, not
playing at a particularly fast pace either. I don't know

(35:42):
what their answer is going to be to the seven
foot or Nate Biddle that Oregon has, he is going
to feast all day in the paint. And let's face it,
I mean, the numbers don't lie when it comes to
Dana Altman and having his teams ready.

Speaker 3 (35:58):
This time of year. He's one of the best at it.

Speaker 4 (36:02):
And it's not just the same old, same old, Right,
He's eight no straight up in the first round of
the NCAA Tournament with Oregon, and he hasn't been seated
very high either. The public is gonna run to the
window looking for one of these what twelve five upsets.
They're gonna automatically think Liberty is the team that's gonna
do it.

Speaker 3 (36:22):
I don't think so.

Speaker 4 (36:24):
I think this has got Oregon easily winning by ten
or more points. I have them as a double digit
winner in this game. I love that it's in the backyard.
Sorry Liberty, great season, nice job, but unfortunately too big,
too much side, and Nate Biddle is just going to
eat them alive in the middle there in the paint.

(36:45):
I think Oregon and Dana Altman do it again. They
move on here to the round of thirty.

Speaker 1 (36:50):
Two Dana Altman sixteen seven and one in the Big Dance.
Don't want to betting against, at least not in the
first round another day, another favorite. I guess we're all
a bunch of chock eating weasels. Who you got, Well.

Speaker 3 (37:06):
That's the beauty of it, all right.

Speaker 5 (37:07):
We talk all about upsets, upsets, upsets, and yet for
my clients and I I'm mostly on favorites in the
first round.

Speaker 3 (37:16):
We'll get the.

Speaker 5 (37:16):
Upsets later in this tournament. But the first round I
find a lot of value with the favorites because everyone
is looking for upsets. Before I start talking about Clemson
and McNee state, I do want to mention what Kelly
talked about before that promo. By the month of April,
get the rest of March for free. That's a good deal,

(37:37):
all right, It really is if you want to get
on board. Obviously, NBA Playoffs going for me, MLB and
we'll take center stage as April continues, and of course
the entirety of the NCAA tournament, including a five percent
big ticket available right now on my page wt dot
buzz Backslash TC.

Speaker 3 (37:56):
Four Round one.

Speaker 5 (37:58):
So here's Clemson Lands and a half. All right, this
is an elite eighteam. Last year the New Mexico Baylor
in Arizona and they took Alabama to the wire with
a chance to go to the final four. They went
eighteen and two in the ACC. This year, they're a
loaded senior leaden team. Chase Hunter the senior stud. He
has a longer tenure at Clemson than fifteen of the

(38:23):
eighteen coaches in the ACC. You know, now the Keiths
has been fired and Hamilton's gone. I think it might
be more than that now. But you want to talk
about an experienced stud. It's his sixth season at Clemson.
He's been dominant in the tournament last year, he was
dominant in the ACC tournament last weekend. He's the type
of guy you can make money with. They got two

(38:44):
strong big men and Hean Shefflin and Victor Alan and
plenty of rebounding, plenty of rimprotections. Ken Palm has a
number eighteen team in the country. And here's the key.
Top twenty five offensively, top twenty five defensively. Clems is
no joke, all right. Now, they did suffer a big loss.
Dylan Hunter, kid brother, he's going to be out for this,
and I think that's why the number is as low
as it is. And McNeice made the tourney last year too,

(39:06):
but they were six and a half point hundred dogs
in the first round. They lost by twenty one. When
you talk about a team that hasn't stepped up in
class all right, since the second week of December. The
last twenty two games, mcne has been a double disit
favorite nineteen of those games, and the three games they
weren't a double don favorite minus eight, minus nine, minus nine.

Speaker 3 (39:26):
All right.

Speaker 5 (39:27):
They covered a couple of early season games against Mississippi
State and Alabama. Both those games stayed way under They
didn't play at pace, and I those contest. That being said,
those are December during finals for the Bulldogs and the
Crimson tied. They were not fully focused. Clemson's fully focused
here and that matters. I'm laying with the Tigers in
a game I expect them to win by margin.

Speaker 1 (39:48):
I am too laying with the Tigers, the Missouri Tigers.
This one's come down pretty much six on the Odds
logic screen, and I get it. Drake has a wonderful story.
Thirty and three on the season. Ben McCollum's team loves
to play that slow, methodical, boring basketball. But they've got

(40:10):
a couple of faults, and these are teams that I
like to bet against. Number one, they turned the ball
over way too much, and number two, they cannot hit
their free throws. Look, they didn't play anybody either played.
Vanderbilt beat my Kansas State Wildcats in overtime.

Speaker 3 (40:25):
Miami.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
I mean, come on, guys, this schedule was a piece
of cake. They should have only lost three games. And well,
I get it. They're one of the least experienced teams
in college basketball, and now they're facing well a team
that does all of the things that can exploit that.
You've got a top five offense in the Missouri Tigers.
They like to play a little more up tempo. They

(40:48):
have one of the best effective field goal percentages in
the country. They don't turn the ball over, and while
they do get frustrating sometimes for me because they also
don't make their free throws and they make stupid fouls.
They are one of the more experienced teams in the country.
They're one of the taller teams in the country, and
I owe Dennis Gates somewhat of an apology. Yes, they

(41:08):
had that ugly three game losing streak there to finish
off the season. But this team does play pretty solid ball,
and I think he's going to have them ready here
against a Drake team that I think is getting a
little overvalued because they've won and covered seven straight. Right,
Like you start hearing these narratives over and over and
over again, I'm fading the narratives of the nation's active

(41:32):
longest win streak. There By our good friend Ken Palmeroy
go to lay six with the Missouri Tigers for my
best bet on the show. All Right, guys, that's all
I've got. It's time sit on our couch for the
next four days be completely gluttonous. I will also be
hosting wager Talk's Last Call right here live on the
wager Talk YouTube channel. I know Teddy's got a ton

(41:55):
of videos he's doing right now. Game previews, Marco Deanne,
Do you have a big week slated?

Speaker 9 (42:04):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (42:04):
We do actually be broadcasting Thursday and Friday live from
the Westgate. I do radio show here in Las Vegas
with TC Martin will be there, So if you're at
the Westgate for the Madness, give us a hauler. We'll
be up on the perch, good seats up on the perch.
They're doing the radio show. And of course, as I said,

(42:25):
we've got a five percent play going in the first round,
so be sure to check that out as well. Good
luck to everybody as well. Let the madness begin, Kelly, let.

Speaker 1 (42:36):
The madness begin for myself, Marco, Joe and Teddy. We'll
see you guys next week. Can't wait to do it
all over again. Now let's cash some tickets.
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