December 25, 2024 • 53 mins
In this week's episode of Bet On It direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Joe Raineri, Ralph Michaels, and Gianni the Greek break down College Football Bowl Games & Playoffs from a sports betting perspective, sharing their college football best bets and predictions for the biggest games on this weekend's slate. Join the crew every Wednesday for Bet On It as we break down the college football slate from various betting angles.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, ho ho ho, tis this season to get some
winners here in college football as we are that much
closer to get into a national championship game. Still plenty
of bowl games on tap, and we're gonna do our
best here to break down a few of these games.
Point you in the right direction as we welcome in
(00:20):
Kelly Stuart and Marco unfortunately is on vacation, So Marco
Claus is here today along with Kelly the Rudolph Stewart.
Pleasure to see you guys here as we get ready
for Round two of the college football playoffs. Not to
mention gonna get really good here with some of these
bowl games coming up. But let's start with the Sugar
(00:43):
Bowl here and take apart this game where Notre Dame
we'll be taking on Georgia. Both of these teams got
hit with some bad news as far as injuries. Beck
we know, had elbow surgery. He's out for the rest
of the player That means the backup Stockton is under center.
And then Notre Dame we found out that they're sack leader.
(01:07):
They're edge rusher Riley Mills. He's also out now. So
both teams dealing with some injuries here Khaled is pretty
much priced to to pick them, which is what we
all thought it would be. Who do you have more
faith with at this particular point in the Sugar Bowl?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Of course I have more faith with Notre Dame.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
This is a team that's covered nine straight versus Georgia,
who's like limping into the playoffs. You mentioned no Carson back. Hey, listen,
I don't think that they would have won that SEC
Championship game without Gunner Stockton, a.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Sophomore guy coming in.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
He only threw for seventy one yards, but he did
have an interception, so keep in mind on that.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
But what did they figure out what to do?
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Wait, they finally started running the ball.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
With ETN and that is how they won the SEC Championship.
I'll give Kirby Smart the nod for having the playoff experience, right,
He's been in the National championshi two out of the
last three years. But Georgia has just been susceptible all
season long. Like I mentioned, whether it was Georgia Tech,
(02:09):
whether it was that Texas game where they did nothing offensively,
whether it was that Florida game on a neutral site
in Jacksonville, I was not impressed with this dog's team whatsoever.
On the other hand, what happened with that Indiana game?
First first up, Ryan Lennard throws an interception. I'm going,
(02:30):
oh my god, I can't believe. John Murray told me
to bet on this team, that they were the biggest
need of the weekend. And then of course Rourke got
picked off ninety eight yard touchdown interception run and that
was all she wrote. Notre Dame just absolutely throttled that
team and made them look like they did not deserve
to be there. On the defensive side of things, we
(02:52):
got to give Notre Dame the huge step up here.
I think that this defense, while the argument's going to be,
hasn't played anybody.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Let's look at the.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Last few weeks with Georgia's defense. They give up a
ton of yards on the ground, They've given up a
ton of passing yards. Now we're talking about a neutral field.
Of course, they're gonna march out Georgia as the one
and a half point favorite.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
Here.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
I said this early in the week before the other
playoff games. I said, when Ohio State waxes Tennessee and
Notre Dame beats Georgia, are we gonna finally hear everybody
shut up about the sec No, of course George is
gonna say they lost because they had a backup quarterback.
The excuses are already starting to unravel, and hey, good
(03:37):
for them. I totally get it. I expect this Georgia
Bulldogs team to well do what they've done over the
last twelve games, not cover spreads just three and nine,
that's twenty five percent. I think Notre Dame keeps it
rolling here. Give me Notre Dame on the money line.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Cool, look at Notre Dame on the mL Marco, how
much does no back and Stockton? I'm sorry, Marco clause,
how much does that affect the way you look at
this game? Because the market doesn't seem to think it's
a big deal. I think the look aheadline was right
around this price to begin with, and we didn't know
(04:14):
Beck was out then, So what do we think we're
gonna get here?
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Well, I think Kelly's getting a lump of call because
I'm going against her. I'm taking Georgia in this one,
and yes, no Carson Beck. But how can you go
wrong when your backup quarterback is called gunner? Gunner Stockton,
let's go I mean, was there ever a quarterback named
better than that. I'm looking at this winning guy. Yeah,
(04:40):
the offense struggled against Texas. That's one of the best
defenses in the country. Notre Dames played well in their
defense has put up good numbers. But Kelly, you said
it yourself. The question is the quality of teams that
Notre Dame has gone up against. Also, you got to
remember Stockton come into that game cold, all right. When
(05:03):
you're preparing for a game, the starter is getting all
of the reps. You have a game plan, it's devised
for him, and he's getting the reps. Stockton had to
come in cold run the offense game plan that was
set for the other guy. I think this is actually
an advantage for Georgia because there's really not a lot
(05:24):
of game film on Stockton. Okay, he's you know, he
only played last week, or I should say in the
SEC Championship game, and then he only had some cameo
appearances during the season when games got out of reach
where he got a little bit of playing time. They're
gonna have a game plan devised for him, They're gonna
(05:45):
have all of the reps. He's gonna be ready. He's
had three plus weeks to get ready for this game,
and they've had nothing to do but prepare for Notre Dame. Yeah,
they prepared a little bit for Indiana, but everybody was
talking how Indiana didn't belong here. All their focus would
have been on Notre Dame and that element of surprise.
(06:06):
Notre Dame doesn't know what to expect of what the
game plan is gonna be with Georgia. I think that's
an advantage. We talked about coaching both coaches I like,
but you've got to give a little bit of a
check mark to Kirby Smart. He has gotten the most
out of the least this year with this team. And
you can't erase all of the experience that Georgia has
(06:28):
had over the last several years. With the success they've
had two national championships. They should have been in the
playoffs last year they weren't, and here they are. They
found a way to get themselves back into the playoffs
this year. I think they get the job done this week.
I'm gonna go with Georgia. I think it'll be a
close game, but I think it's Georgia getting the win
(06:52):
on Saturday. And the other thing that Kelly mentioned about
Georgia not covering this year, That's true, they haven't, but
they've been laying a lot of big points. All you
got to do is win this game. We don't have
to worry about covering anything.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
Kind of like that.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
There, am I the only one that also recognizes now
you've got a backup quarterback and you're a team that
started slow in every big game this year. Georgia, they
are a second half team, big time, which is part
of the reason why they were able to come back
there against Texas, even with Stockton at QB. I think
(07:29):
Notre Dame comes into this one, and I'll split the
difference with you. You guys have Kelly's got Notre Dame
in the full game. Marco's got Georgia full game. I'm
going Notre Dame in the first half. I've seen Georgia
start far too slow in a lot of these games
coming up, and I'm not sure how the week off
is going to work here. I think Notre Dame will
(07:50):
be ready. I think Georgia in the second half, especially
if they're trailing, might not be a bad look live
as well. So that game is the Ugar Bowl. That's
one part of the Final four. If you will be
four and a four games here as we try to
get to a national championship. Also, we've got another interesting
(08:11):
one call on the other side there with Texas taking
on Arizona States in the not the Fiesta Bowl, the
actual Peach Bowl, right, so that'll be New Year's Day.
I believe that's the early game. Arizona State just kind
of sitting their mind in their own business. But yet
now they get Texas and nobody seems to think they
seem to be betting this game, like they already know
(08:33):
the outcome as well. Can you gibn I didn't see
Clemson scoring that many points against this Texas defense. Clemson
had an opportunity to stick it to him Cal and
they just couldn't get it done. Does Arizona State have
a puncher's chance in this one?
Speaker 3 (08:48):
I have not gotten to the window with Arizona State yet.
I've just been kind of sitting back. The whole world
is going to bet all four favorites this weekend after
what we saw last weekend.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
It makes a lot of sense. It looks like Indiana
SMU don't belong, which is gonna quite too. Neither does
Boise State. Neither does Arizona State, And I think that
is a very drastic mistake. Those first round of games
were on home turf. Now we're on neutral sites. Texas
fans are not going to travel to this game because
they've already got their sites on the National Championship. But
(09:20):
there's still a lot of issues going on in that
quarterback room, arch Manning waiting in the wings. Quinn Ewers
did not play a perfect game by any means. You
know who did play pretty damn well, Clemson, and that's
because they rush for almost three hundred yards. Do you
know anything about this running back from Arizona State.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
No, of course, nobody's been paying attention all year long.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Nobody thought Arizona State was gonna go out there and
win the Big twelve in their first year, not a
single person including me. But guess what, Cam Scataboo, Yeah,
he is going to have himself an absolute field day.
You can throw coach Sark off his game. We've seen
it time and time again. And what does Texas do
exactly what I said they were.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Gonna do lest last week? They let teams hang around.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
We'll see Jordan Tyson's gonna be out for Arizona State.
And that concerns me. He fractured a collarbone versus Arizona,
but they sure as hell didn't seem to miss him
in the Big twelve Championship game.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
This is the high flying Big Twelve.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
I know everybody's gonna want to run back to bet
that Texas under yet again, but I think Arizona has
their way with the Arizona State, excuse me, has their
way with this defense. Arizona State looked very good in
the Big twelve Championship.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Game, almost too good.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Unfortunately, it's where I think this one's at thirteen and
a half.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I would love to get a fourteen.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
And I would love to get a plus four ten
four fifteen, four to twenty on the money line.
Speaker 5 (10:46):
Ye know, Caat, we saw this even with the Clemson spot.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
It was as high as fourteen, fourteen and a half
and then it started to drop just before kickoff down
to thirteen thirteen and a half. It's all about getting
the best number call, and if you're looking for a
fourteen and a half, you're waiting to see if that hooked,
then there's probably, I don't know, some sort of tool
you could probably utilize right to make sure you're on
(11:11):
top of that, I'm asking.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Absolutely, odds Logic is the newest, latest, fastest tool that
you need at your disposal, whether it's for live betting, arbitraging,
whether it's for injury alerts, looking for betting percentages from
all of the books.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
It is fully customizable.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Right now oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
You can get it.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Free for the next thirty days, so guys check it out.
You don't even need a credit card. It is a
great tool you need at your disposal. One last thing
about Arizona State here, Joe. Four times they've won as
an outright underdog this year. Four times. That's how much
they've been doubted. I'm not doubting Arizona State. Here, Texas
(11:54):
feeling pretty happy that they got away with it there
against Clemson.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I'm not sure they're gonna get away with it here
in the Peach Bowl.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
And I'm pretty sure our good friend ct Betts was
betting against him and every one of those four. It's
unfortunately a lot of us lost money waiting for them
to fall off at cliff and they never did. We'll
see if they've got one more upset in them here
in the meantime, Marco, let's go to that Fiesta ball
(12:23):
another game. They seem to be betting like they already
know the score here with Penn State taking on Boisey State. Now,
I don't know what Marco D'Angelo would do, but I'm
pretty sure Marco Claus wouldn't be laying this kind of number,
or would he?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
No, he wouldn't. Joe, And I don't want you to
feel left out because Kelly's getting a lump of coal
for Christmas Stanley to forget you, Joe, He's bringing you
a three pack of your favorite beer, A three pack.
You know why, a three pack because you only watch
the first half in six is way too many beers
(13:02):
for you for one alf Thank you, all right, no problem,
nothing but the best for you, Joe. All Right, we're
gonna take a look here. And I don't want to
forget Dan. We've got a present for you, Dan too,
and forget you. I've got a slightly used Kenny Pickett Jersey.
(13:26):
I am going to gift you. I am going to
have the I have the call instead take the call. Hey,
you know what, you guys can blame Kelly for this,
all right? You got to put up with my sick
jokes because Kelly made me put the Santa suit on today.
(13:47):
All right, Okay, let's get to the festival.
Speaker 6 (13:55):
Kid, Yes, our f You know the ratings would go
up if Kelly would have had the Bell sweater.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Okay, my my sweatshirt that I'm wearing tomorrow would have
got me anseled again.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
I'm good.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Of all of my family members that are going to
know exactly how I feel.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
I would stand up Marco, but I'm fairly certain we
would get pulled down from from ok.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
Yes, listen, let's everybody stay seated. Okay, yes, the ball
Penn State, This line is absolutely absurd, all right. They
are totally overreacting to what happened last week in Happy Valley.
How can you have Penn State eight and a half
nine point favorite at home against SMU and be laying
(14:54):
eleven on a neutral to Boise State. Boise State's a
better team than SMU. Everybody screen that SMU shouldn't have
been in the playoffs, and they played like it. But
you know what, if you really watched that game, they
were their own worst enemy. It started on the opening drive.
They had fourth in one or two, they went for it.
(15:15):
He could have walked for the first down. Instead, he
stops and tries to make the big play and to
throw the pass for the touchdown and ends up incomplete.
He could have had the first down that had first
in goal. This would have taken the crowd out of
the game. To start the game, you go up early
on Penn State. I'm not saying they would have beat
(15:36):
Penn State, but I don't think you would have seen
the blowout that you did. Then what do they do?
Two interceptions in the game, both picked sixes. Then James Franklin,
this is something you got a factor in as well.
What was he doing when his team had not done
anything offensively yet they had the lead because of the
(15:58):
defense their own twenty yard line and he goes on
fourth and one and gets stopped. Thank god, his defense
belled him out again on another interception that saved them
when he set SMU up at the twenty yard line.
I said when the brackets came out, Penn State had
the easiest route to the semi finals, and they still do.
(16:21):
That doesn't mean they're going to cover this big number
Boise State. His only can do who's in front of
them and the one loss they had was a three
point loss to the only undefeated team in the country, Oregon.
I am going to look at Boise State on the
neutral field getting all of these points, which is way
(16:43):
too many in my opinion. I thought this line would
be the Penn State would be a touchdown favorite whenever
I was mapping it out at the beginning of the playoffs,
because if you remember, I said, take Penn State instead
of taking them on the futures at six to one,
do them on the rollover. There's no way I figured
them to be an eleven point favorite in this game.
(17:03):
Boise State doesn't beat themselves. I told you SMU self
destructed last week with the turnovers. You know many turnovers
Boise State has had this year? Eight that's it, eight
turnovers all year. And oh, by the way, what do
you want to do if you want to shorten a
game and try to keep the other team's offense off
(17:24):
the field, you want to run the football. I know
Penn State has a great defense, but they're going to
be facing the best running back in college football with
Ashton Genty for Boise State. And then throw in again
the head coaching factor. James Franklin. Somewhere along the line
is either going to be too aggressive or too conservative.
(17:48):
There's no happy medium for him. He's going to make
a mistake in this game. I think Penn State escapes
with the win, but I see this as a three
to four point game either way. Coming right down to
the end, I'll take Boise State plus the points. This
one will be a lot closer than the public thinks.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Got to love it a little bit closer, says Marco
Clause than most people think in that one. Well, that
leaves us, of course, the granddaddy of them all right,
the Rose Bowl, where we're going to get a rematch.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
With two behemoths hero Ohio State taking.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
On Oregon, with Ohio State opening up as that slight
favorite here fifty four as a total, and listen, there
is what else can you say about what we saw
from Will Howard and Ohio State in that game against Tennessee.
Speaker 5 (18:44):
If you go back to.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
When they played and they were just a playaway from
actually beating Oregon into Oregon, and they have probably been
stewing in this for a little while here, but I
think the difference was don't forget in that game, iiO
State lost not one but two of their offensive linemen
that they had to try and reassign and regroup in
(19:08):
game live against Oregon. They well, they've they've had an
entire season to be able to adjust to that offensive
line and the issues we have heard over the last
month month and a half about all that offensive line
of Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Oh, it's a mess. You can't trust them.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Well, they lost their starting tackle there, Josh Simmons, in
the first half of that game against the Ducks in October,
and they had to scramble there. But then we just
watched them with down two starting offensive line and go
up against one of the best off defensive fronts.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
In all of football with Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Did those backups look like they had a problem moving
and bulldozing them?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
The answer is no. Now.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
On the flip side, Oregon also healthier than they have
been going into this game than they have over the
last month. Jordan Birch, their edge rusher, their leading pass rusher,
looks like he is back now they have had to
go the last couple of games without him, and their
go to receiver Tes Johnson also back near full strength.
(20:16):
So unlike the first time these two teams met, there
were injuries on both sides, that both teams had to
deal and it was a great game. It was a
high scoring game. Well guess what we go round to
in a neutral site game. It's a coin flip any
which way you cut this, it's a coin flip game.
But it's one that I would much rather focus on
(20:39):
the total because I definitely think points are coming in
this one. Here you're talking about an Oregon defense. Guys,
that's not even top one hundred in red zone defense.
It's what cost him in the first game points. And
every time they play a quality team they are given
(21:00):
up points. I mean they have given up what thirty
points or more, at least thirty points or more when
they have faced some of these playoff teams this year.
They end up winning the games in shootouts because they can,
but my goodness, that defense is not good. I would
compare it to the Detroit Lions here, where they're capable
of dropping forty points. But on the better teams, the
(21:21):
better offenses, they're gonna give up points here. I think
it comes down to the wire again. There is no
way I'm sweating an under in this game. I don't
care that that Landing and company have had a couple
of weeks now to get ready for this, and Ohio
State's been thinking about it. Both defenses certainly capable, but
I don't think they are going to be capable enough
(21:43):
to stop each of these offenses.
Speaker 5 (21:45):
I like the over.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
I think this thing lands in the sixties again, way
more so than it landing under fifty four points. All right, there,
you got it. So we've got all the playoff games
out of way. We do have, of course, a couple
of best bets that we're gonna break down in some
of the upcoming bowl games. But first time for some goal,
(22:08):
let's bring in our man VR. We're that much closer
to getting to a national championship here, Yanni and your
boys from Ohio State, who you've been literally screaming, screaming
at the top of your lungs that they're the best
team in the country, are going to have a chance
to prove it this week.
Speaker 5 (22:24):
What are you hearing though?
Speaker 1 (22:25):
From a steam perspective, what kind of gold is being
pushed out?
Speaker 7 (22:30):
There?
Speaker 8 (22:31):
Was not surprised, Joe to see that Ohio State steam
come in because we talked about it. Listen, with four
minutes left, they were about a minus two hundred to
win the game at Oregon, one of the toughest venues
to play. They closed about three point favorites there, so
we the market decided that Ohio State was close to
a touchdown better than Oregon when this season started. Sure,
(22:52):
they lost that game randomness towards the end, but the
sharp betters aren't going to over react to any one final.
They continued to believe that Ohio State was the better
team on a neutral field. This betting line reflects exactly that.
But don't rush if you missed the Ohio State side.
Rest assured. The Oregon money's going to come in because
(23:14):
the betting public hasn't spoke yet. They're not rushing out
to bet these playoff games. They're not tying up that
capital yet. They still have Christmas Seve, they got Christmas Day,
they got Bowl games between now and the weekend. So
rest assured and next week that there are no rush
to bet thos. It's the sharp money that's betting them,
and the fact that they got out ahead on Ohio
(23:36):
State shows you that it's a zero sum game. These
groups are not working with each other. So if I
have Ohio State and I think they should be about
a three point favorite, even though I know the betters
are going to take Oregon, I can't miss that pickum
or minus one, minus one and a half because I
know the other sharp guys looking at the exact same thing,
so they're going to lay it. That's what happened there
(23:57):
with Ohio State. Again, I think the two best team
the power rating wise, the guys I respect think Notre
Dame is probably the strongest team in the country by
about a quarter of a point through half a point
over Ohio State. But my futures that I'm holding a
ticket on, I have Ohio State at a little better
than five to one and I got Penn State at
a little better than five to one, and I'm comfortable
(24:17):
with both of those. As far as some sides and
totals that I could touch on and share with you.
With college bowl games I talked to in the beginning
bowl games, bull season playoffs, that's where the money is.
I've been firing nothing but four percent plays pretty much.
It's one percent of bank roll, and I think number
one in profit in December in college football. This is
(24:38):
what we live for. I'll give you a couple sides. Now,
we did bet North Carolina, but I think you're too
late to the party. Because I laid minus two. That's
up to the key number of three. So it's on
you whether you want to take the risk. I took
Toledo as well. I'm on Toledo plus seven. You can
still get seven there again, follow fade.
Speaker 5 (24:55):
It's up to you.
Speaker 8 (24:56):
I talked about it a couple of weeks ago. We
had taken Michigan as soon as this opened up. We
had taken Michigan plus the ten over Alabama. Alabama's now
a thirteen point favorite. So that's a terrible bet. Even
if Michigan covers this spread. I made a bad bet.
That's one of the downside risks of getting out ahead
of the market. But if you could be right, six
out of ten times you're ahead of the game, seven
(25:18):
out of ten times you're crushing it, eight out of
ten times you're in that half percent. But it's gonna
happen where some of those numbers go against us. So
obviously we took the Michigan side, but it doesn't look
like at a very good bet because early on, Joe,
remember there's a lot of changes of coaches and guys
not going to play and going into the draft, portal
and all that stuff. So a lot changes between when
(25:40):
these lines first went up and when they kick off.
But for the most part, we did pretty good. Like
we took Baylor plus one and a half. I think
Baylor went to favorite. They're about a two point favorite now.
We took Buffalo as a dog. I think Buffalo's now
a favorite in that game as well over Liberty. What
else can I get? Oh, Louisiana Tech. I just gave
(26:02):
those out to subscribers yesterday. We took Louisiana Tech. I
think plus seventeen and a half and plus seventeen, and
like I said, I had the over tonight, but I
gave it my guys at sixty two. That's something like
sixty six. I probably wouldn't bet it. I wouldn't release
it now, and I do like the sand Who's eighth
state side, but there has been resistance. I actually talked
(26:22):
about it with pres I bet more on San Jose
State than I should have because I thought it was
gonna go to three and a half or four and
I was going to have a nice two and a
half and plus four middle. That didn't happen as we
saw South Florida money start to come in. But that's
pretty much what's going on. It's gonna be interesting again
as we approach New Year's Day what really happens, because
when the public speaks, they bet big. Come New Year's Eve,
(26:44):
come New Year's Day, there will be a lot of
money bet at the window, and these lines will reflect
that money. So if you like Oregon, I really think
you shouldn't wait. I don't think you're gonna get much
better than two and a half of out. You're gonna
get that three. If you like Ohio State, I think
you could wait. You'll probably get a better number, at
least on the money line. Because let's not forget guys
that are gonna bet Oregon on New Year's Day. They're
(27:06):
not gonna take two and a half points. They're gonna
take the money line. So that's gonna give you a
discount or Ohio State, if you like them on the
money n you'll be able to get them at a
cheaper price than what the points braver reflects. Like an
arbitrary number, if a minus two and a half should
be minus one forty, that two and a half will
be minus one twenty five because of the excess money
(27:27):
line bets on Oregon. So I'm excited to see how
that game breaks out. Sorry, Joe, not to go along.
I just want to see if anything else stuck out.
Speaker 9 (27:35):
Uh.
Speaker 8 (27:36):
Yeah, that's pretty much it. Man, That's pretty much it
for college football. But again, a lot between now and
New Year's Day to get excited about.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
I don't want to read between the lines, Yanny, but
it sounds to me like the winner of this Ohio
State Oregon game is your national champion.
Speaker 8 (27:53):
Fair to say, I if it were a Joe, if
it was a three game series, I'd say it's a lock.
I be mortgaging things because the cream would rise to
the top and there's nobody better. But in a random
sixty minute game with some idiot that could throw a
fly out of nowhere for a holding call that happened
fifteen other times that he overlooked that when I walked
(28:15):
through the window broke. I swear to you that's what's
going on in my head. Every bad beat I ever
suffered goes through my mind because all I want to
do is bet every last penny. Like sometimes I have
that much conviction that I would to bet every last penny.
And then, as I remind myself, is I'm walking up
to the window. Dude, Remember that holding call, Remember that
that ninety nine yard fumble returned for a touchdown that
(28:36):
you didn't need with time running out, Like those things
are the flashbacks. You got to remember. There are no locks.
There are no locks.
Speaker 5 (28:42):
There are no locks.
Speaker 8 (28:43):
But Ohio State I believe will win the National Championship.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Certainly the tougher side of the bracket coming from over there,
that is for sure. Yann need a greeg lockloaded ready
to go. Here, my man, listen, I have a safe
and happy and profitable Christmas. Brother.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
We'll see you again come National Championship time.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
In the meantime, we got to bring in the pen,
mister Ralph Michaels in the house to talk a little TNA.
You're gonna head two Saturday, December to twenty ninth for
the Military Ball in Annapolis as North Carolina State taking
on the East Carolina And how are you looking at
this one.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
In state game? But not a rivalry.
Speaker 9 (29:25):
The last time these two played, Joe was nineteen ninety two.
The interesting thing is they're going to play twice in
a row the bowl game and then they start off
against each other in twenty twenty five as the season
opener for both teams. NC State, much like my NFL
best bet, started the season poorly oh and seven ats,
(29:47):
but they finished covering four of the last five. Now,
can you can you give a reason why that is?
And I absolutely can remember. NC State had some high hopes.
Grayson McCall came over as a transfer quarterback, played the
first two games, a win against Western and then a
loss against Tennessee, and then got Kurt game three, so
(30:09):
they had to go to CJ.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
Bailey. CJ.
Speaker 9 (30:12):
Bailey, a true freshman who wasn't expected to play this year,
then gets put into the starting lineup again. He struggled early,
but as I said, he has come on significantly and
they finished covering four.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Of the last five games.
Speaker 9 (30:28):
You look at their offense and production, it is night
and day from where they were to where they finished,
and with that passing game improving, they were able to
rush for two hundred and fifty three and two hundred
and twenty yards the last two games, both were on
the road at Georgia Tech and at North Carolina, and
they averaged over six yards per carry in those final
(30:50):
two games. When I look at Bowl teams that are
six and six versus an opponent that has seven or
more wins. We've talked about this before, but this team
and this coaching staff has a legacy to play for
moving forward. Was this twenty twenty four NC State wolffag
(31:12):
team a winning team or a losing team. So six
and six teams facing a team with more than six
wins that is off a win sixty six point seven
percent against the spread since two thousand and eight. And
if they're off a win and their opponents off a
loss in a bowl game, that is a sixty three
(31:33):
point four percent situation. Now, if the team is also
a favorite like NC State that won is a favorite
their last game and their opponent lost as a dog,
all about eleven and three seventy eight point six percent
against the spread. So a six and six bowl team
off a win against the positive against a team with
seven or more wins, a bowl team off a win
(31:57):
in a and is a favorite against the opponent off
of loss, and an opponent that won their last game
as a favorite versus an opponent that lost their last
game as a dog. Are the three play on situations
for North Carolina. When I look at East Carolina, they
had a quarterback injury as well. They needed to switch
quarterbacks mid They only played three teams that finished the
(32:19):
season within winning record.
Speaker 5 (32:21):
And listen to this.
Speaker 9 (32:22):
If you look at their points per game diff against
those three teams, they were minus fourteen points per game.
That is number ninety six in the country. NC State
their problem was turnovers. They played six teams that finished
the season with winning records, and in those six games,
they were minus six turnovers. If NC State doesn't turn
(32:42):
the ball over here again, you can't. You can't always
promise that's the case. But they win this game handily.
Give me the NC State Wolfpack to get to seven
and six and finish this season with a positive record.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
All right, looking for NC State to get it done.
Ralph still play in college football. Left in the season. Here, Ralph,
as we wind down twenty twenty four, what do you
have available for folks at your page at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 9 (33:11):
Getting ready to load a few more bullpages. Off to
a perfect four no start this year in the Bulls,
A couple games that have had circled I've been waiting,
it seems now last year, it seems the information we
have now came in quicker and more thorough than in
the past. Last year we're having people opt out the
day before in the game before we've sort of seen
where that's not the case this year. Hopefully that continues.
(33:34):
But again that's the delay on me loading bull plays
too early. It's worked so far. So a couple of
great specials, and don't forget, guys, from Christmas to New
Year's every day, every package, absolutely no restrictions. Fill your
cart and save twenty five percent off every purchase you make.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
All right, it's time to talk to our good friend
Art de Caza here at the Westgates Superbook in Las Vegas,
as we're that much close to Art. Now that we've
gotten rid of the SMUs of the world and the
Indianas of the world, now we get down to the
nitty grittia. Though some are saying, I don't know, does
Arizona State really deserve to be here as a fourteen
(34:17):
point dog? It is Boise State going to be even
competitive against Penn State. What is the market telling you
in some of these games coming.
Speaker 5 (34:26):
Up so far?
Speaker 10 (34:28):
Well, all I'll say is the committee is going to
look real bad here with the Indiana and SMU performances
and now three of their four buy teams are underdogs,
and two of them are enormous underdogs. But obviously you
get two really good games, and I think you have
to look at it like this. Obviously the two big
games Penn State Boise at Texas in a issue with
(34:50):
the big spreads. They won't generate as much action as
the other two. And obviously those are four name brands,
and when you have spreads basically with in a point
or two everything under a field goal, those are going
to generate really good two way action type handles on
those games. So we look for those two games Ohio
(35:12):
State and Oregon and Georgia Notre Dame to really carry
kind of the days for us on these you know,
a couple of days.
Speaker 7 (35:20):
I know it's split between one day and then a
triple header.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Yeah, I guess maybe the good news art for the
committee is that, you know, it used to be when
we get blowouts in those games leading up to the championship,
you'd have to wait a month, got to wait like
a little more of a week, I guess, out of sight,
out of mind, if the games are competitive, all will
be well. The problem is those spreads and some of
these totals are interesting too. Are we seeing anything in
(35:47):
the totals market at all in any of these games
being pushed one way or the other.
Speaker 10 (35:51):
You know, the only thing I can say on totals
is the Ohio State Oregon total has gone up from
our opener fifty four to fifty five. Obviously, when they
play it, I believe that was a thirty eight to
thirty five games, something in that range. So you know,
that game was obviously in the low seventies, so that's
no surprise. But honestly, the other three games, Penn State, Boise,
(36:13):
we opened fifty three, we're still fifty three. Texas Arizona
State we opened fifty two and a half. We're still
fifty two and a half. Georgia Notre Dame we were
forty four and a half, So that's gone down half
a point to forty four. But nothing crazy. We just
moved with the market on that. The Ohio State Oregon
is really sharp money that came in on over fifty
four moving us to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (36:36):
We'll get to some ball games here in just a second.
But is there any movement in the futures market of
you seeing are we getting a lot of Ohio State
you know, champion money. Are we getting Georgia? Are we
getting Texas? You're seeing anything being pushed one way or
the other in the futures.
Speaker 7 (36:54):
Not really, Joe, But this is what I'll say to everyone.
Speaker 10 (36:56):
Everyone looks at it and goes, Okay, Texas is the favorite,
and we have Texas as the favorite, with obviously Ohio
State and Oregon right behind them. What is going to
happen is the second the winner of the Oregon Ohio
State game happens. Unless Texas went sixty three to nothing,
which I guess could happen, the Ohio State Oregon winner
(37:17):
is going to instantly be installed as the bet on favorite.
They're just gonna be. They're gonna end up being the favorite.
They're both highly more highly power rated than Texas. It's close,
but both teams will be favored against Texas, you know,
no matter what that matchup is. I guess, like I said,
unless Texas really goes out there and crushes Arizona State.
(37:39):
But for us, our big thing is we got to
get Bois out of there. We get crushed on Boise.
We feel good that it is Penn State, you know,
Penn State. Now we open nine and a half they're
an eleven point favorite. So we feel good about Penn
State going out there and beating Boise and knocking Bois
out of the future. But for US, Ohio State, Oregon,
Notre Dame, Georgia, we do really well on all those teams.
Speaker 7 (37:59):
So it's shaping up to be a pretty good future
book for US.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
In Notre Dame beats Georgia, I would expect the Notre
Dame money to come flooding and everybody back in the
fighting Irish here. They got such a such a big
popular fan base, that's kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
Here.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
What about some of these other Bowl games though, we've
got a bunch, only got one on Christmas Eve, but
we got a bunch coming up towards the weekend before
we get to those playoff games.
Speaker 6 (38:26):
Here.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
Are you seeing anything? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (38:29):
You are?
Speaker 10 (38:29):
I mean, I think an interesting one is you look
at the Oklahoma Navy game, and you know that thing
was as high as eight eight and a half. Obviously,
we no, Navy's not gonna lose anyone to transfer portals
or anything like that. They're gonna play their hearts out.
Oklahoma's now just a three point favorite. Washington State looks
like they can barely feel the team geez, And I
(38:51):
mean we're the highest on the market. We're seventeen. There's
still some sixteens out there that to me is a
game that could move potentially get to twenty one by kickoff.
It just feels that way. It feels like it could
go all the way up that high. I mean, like
I said, we're the highest you could be right now.
(39:11):
We took some chart money on Nebraska minus two and
a half. We're up to three and a half. That's
against Boston College. We took chart money on Alabama at
ten and a half against Michigan. We're all the way
up to thirteen on that game. And then we started
to see the sharp by on BYU. We saw sharp
by on BYU plus five plus four and a half.
We're now all the way to four against Colorado. Because
(39:34):
I think there's still a lot of people real skeptical
on Shador and Travis Hunter playing. That's basically the number
one and number two picks in the draft. Why would
those kids play It feels impossible to me. Maybe they
play a series, but for them to play the full game,
it seems crazy. So I think the Sharps are leaning
into that and trying to take the best of the number.
Speaker 5 (39:54):
Right now, that's kind of crazy here I'm seeing.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Also, it's interesting the Baylor line I think flipped at
one point right with LSU here it looks like are
you getting nothing but Baylor money as well?
Speaker 10 (40:09):
Yeah, it's a good call, Joe. We did move Baylor
to the favorite. That was basically like a pick them
type game. But you know, when we were sitting pick them,
we saw some money come in on Baylor.
Speaker 7 (40:19):
Move Baylor. I think we're as high as one and
a half.
Speaker 10 (40:21):
Think believe we're now back to one, so that's still
kind of a pick them game, But most of the
money and the sharp early money did come in on Baylor.
Speaker 7 (40:29):
You're correct on that.
Speaker 5 (40:31):
I got some Baylor money. It is all right.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
I won't hold it to you, but who it feels
like the Ohio State and Oregon winner will be your
national champion. Anything can happen, but it feels like it's
coming from that side of the bracket.
Speaker 5 (40:47):
Are you on that page as well?
Speaker 7 (40:50):
I am, and I'm on the Ohio State Bamwigon.
Speaker 10 (40:52):
I think they're the best team in the country if
they play the way they played on Saturday against Tennessee
and that's a good Tennessee team win.
Speaker 7 (41:00):
They're gonna win the national championship.
Speaker 10 (41:02):
Texas to me, is a little spotty offensively, their defense
is obviously really good. Ohio State just has so many weapons. Now,
Oregon's gonna put up a fight here. That to me
is going to be a tremendous game.
Speaker 7 (41:13):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 10 (41:14):
I think the winner of that game, like I said,
will be the new national championship favorite and should be,
and I believe it's going to be Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (41:22):
All right. One final question here.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
I didn't see it at the West Gate though, but
I would imagine the North Texas Texas State total?
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Are you at eighty yet?
Speaker 5 (41:31):
Because I can't imagine how high that total.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Is going to get before kickoff on the on the
what is it the second or third of January?
Speaker 5 (41:40):
I can't Where are you at right now on that total?
Speaker 10 (41:43):
That's a great question. I don't know it off the
top of my head, but you are right now. It's funny,
side is totally moving that. It's been a lot of
Texas State money, you know what I mean? Texas State? Yeah, huge,
I mean we're basically at two touchdowns now. Because I
remember we moved that, I believe from ten and a
half to thirteen yesterday. But you're right, that's one of
those totals where you know, we probably can't make it
(42:04):
high enough. And you know on these low tier bowl
games show you know a game that's gonna kick off
on January, you know, two, three, four of those type
of things.
Speaker 7 (42:13):
We'll get most of our action day of game.
Speaker 10 (42:16):
Because I think most people are like they'll wake up
that day and be like, oh, there's a Bowl game,
and then they want to go out and bet it.
Speaker 5 (42:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
I started as high as sixty seven and a half
when it opened, so I can only imagine what's going
to happen by the time we get to game.
Speaker 5 (42:28):
They there, Art does Caesar of the West Gate.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Of course you can check him out every weekend here
on Last Call on Wage to Talk TV. Art have
a very safe, profitable, and happy Christmas man. We appreciate
it as always. As we get ready here for some
best bets. All right, Kelly, let's start off here with
(42:53):
a ball game we just heard from Art to Caesar
says that, well, we kind of got a line flip
here in this Bowl game where LSU might have been
a slight favorite, but now it looks like the Baylor
Bears are a slight favorite.
Speaker 5 (43:08):
What are you thinking about this game?
Speaker 3 (43:10):
Yeah, I think Baylor plus one and a half. But
I'm not gonna sit here and say it's not a
significant line move. But I think it's the correct line move.
And that's because, man, the Tigers are just bleeding out.
Not only do they lose both their starting offensive tackles,
they're tight end who are leaving for the NFL Draft early.
(43:30):
They got a lot more going right behind them in
the transfer portal CJ.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Daniels as well. So look, Baylor's rosters almost all but intact.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
They won six straight games to close up the season,
and I think not only did Dave Ronda save his job,
but he's got his team ready to play here in
the Texas Bowl.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
I know nus Meyer is going to play for.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
The Tigers, which is pretty good news for them, but
that team still has dropped three of their last five
and only covered one game over that time span. As
I mentioned Baylor peaking at the right time, I think
you lay it here with the Baylor Bears, and no.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
I don't think this one's coming back.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
I think it's headed to two, So do not wait
until New Year's Eve to bet this one.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Get it in Baylor Bears, dan Fred Elly and our
best bets Marco Clause.
Speaker 5 (44:26):
Boy.
Speaker 1 (44:26):
I've been trying to figure this one out here when
it comes to the transfer portal and who might be
in or out. One of these teams seems to be
in better shape than the other. But my goodness, USC
and Texas A and M, how are you breaking this
one down?
Speaker 8 (44:44):
Well?
Speaker 4 (44:44):
Joe? Before I get into this one, just a quick
reminder this week at wager Talk Holiday twenty five, it'll
save you twenty five percent on any package at wager Talking.
You can use that pick up a seven day package,
thirty day package, whatever you want from Anny Kapper and guys,
we've had a great run in twenty twenty four. Number
(45:06):
one in hockey currently this year, number one in hockey
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We're number one at wager Talking money won as well.
So check it out, save yourself twenty five percent. Just
(45:29):
put in Holiday twenty five at checkout, Joe. I'm going
to take a look at the game right here in
Vegas with USC. And you know what, when I first
looked at this, I'll be honest, my first reaction was
I'll probably be fading USC. How excited can USC be
to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. This is
(45:50):
a program with a rich tradition that expects to be
competing for a national championship, at least make the playoffs whatever,
especially with the expanded format this year, they thought they
would be there, but they're not. But public opinion is
going to be in this game. It's an SEC team
(46:11):
playing a defunct PAC twelve team now in the Big Ten.
And we know the SEC is the best conference in football.
That's what everybody says. Well, it wasn't this particular year.
And when I dug deeper into this game, and as
we get closer to game day and I start listening
to the different players and the sound bites and the interviews,
(46:34):
the more I'm warming up to USC. Lincoln Riley wants
to build for next year. This is obviously a disappointing
season for him, but the fact that he has shifted
gears in looking forward to next year goes with the
fact that he went ahead and benched his highly talented quarterback,
Miller Moss. He replaced him with Jadeen have And this
(46:58):
is a quarterback that played three games, completed sixty one
percent of his passes, nine hundred and six yards over
those three starts, and a seven to two touchdown to
interception ratio. USC sits at six and six. Why is
that significant? Well, obviously, as I said, that's not the
(47:20):
goal to have a seven and six season if you're
a USC. But you also don't want to be a
losing team. You don't want to be labeled the twenty
twenty four losing edition of USC. It's a mental motivator
to get to that seventh win and be have the
winning season. Also, there's a couple of intangibles here. Heading
(47:41):
into their last two games, Texas A and M was
in control of their own destiny. They could have been
playing in the SEC Conference championship game. But what happened.
They had an absolutely gut wrenching loss to Auburn in
the second to last game of the Sea went to overtime.
Lost that game in overtime. I got to six or
(48:05):
it was crazy because they were doing the two point
conversions in that game and then they played Texas hard
fought game, lost seventeen to seven. They got to be
deflated to be where they're at in the Las Vegas Bowl.
And as you know, there's a few distractions here in Vegas.
(48:26):
Teams that come to Vegas for the first time, it
could be a challenge to stay focused. That should not
be a problem for USC. They've played here before. The
PAC twelve Championship game has been played in Vegas for
several years now. Also, USC played here earlier this year.
(48:46):
They played in the Kickoff Classic against LSU in one
on this field, Allegiance Stadium. But here's the other part.
The quarterback that is not quarterbacking for USC, Well, he
came to USC through the transfer portal. You want to
guess where he quarterback last year? Yeah, that breakout season
(49:07):
for the UNLV running Rebels. He knows this stadium, this town.
This is gonna be a homecoming for him. I'm gonna
go ahead and ride USC that all of the vibes
I'm hearing and seeing says that this team's ready to play.
Give me the dog with USC against Texas A and.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
M oh with USC getting it done against Texas A
and m kind of crazy there when you think about it,
as we're all trying to piece together exactly who's playing
and who's not playing, and there is one game in
which is just absolutely bonkers when you think about it,
(49:48):
because trying to figure out who's playing and who's not playing, well,
do it in the Texas A and M and the
techne Texas Tech rather an Arkansas game in which, yeah,
let's start with Texas Tech. Who's got well, let's see
a defensive coordinator, fired, offensive coordinator. Well, guess what, he
(50:14):
is no longer there because he took the head coaching
job at FAU. So now we're scratching our head, going
you gotta be kidding me. However, coach McGuire still there
in this game, and he is one of the big
reasons why I love Texas Tech. Here and a slight
plus money price is that even though you have the attrition,
(50:37):
and even though Morton won't be playing in this game,
the quarterback for Texas Tech, freshman Will Hammond, who saw
some action this year, will be under center. What's really
got me is as much as you have defensive coordinator, fired,
offensive coordinator gone, still got your head coach when you
look at what happened over at Arkins. This team literally
(51:01):
has not enough scholarship offensive linemen to fill the line.
Speaker 5 (51:08):
That is correct.
Speaker 1 (51:09):
They have got everybody gone on the offensive side of
the ball, and Taylor Green we backed in a number
of spots here. One heck of a playmaker at the
quarterback position former Boise State quarterback. His ability to make
plays is great. But the problem is the Red Raiders
with McGuire, and I don't care that they fired the
(51:30):
defensive coordinator. He should have been fired.
Speaker 5 (51:32):
He was terrible.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
They are going to be able to get home against him.
They are going to make his life miserable. Why because
he has none protection. Arkansas is left with absolutely zero
protection and experience to protect him on the offensive line.
There are not any scholarship linemen left on the roster.
(51:55):
They also have nothing left at the skill positions, as
all of their starting and backup wide receivers as well
as running backs are gone. So when you put it
all together, Arkansas has far, far too many portal.
Speaker 5 (52:12):
And guys that are left.
Speaker 1 (52:14):
There far too much experience not in this game. For
my liking, I love coach McGuire in this spot. He
will have this team ready. Even though the coaching staffs
a little different. He'll have these guys ready to go.
I think Texas Tech wins this game, and I think
they win it rather easily. Great opportunity to get him
at a slight plus money price.
Speaker 5 (52:36):
And there you got it.
Speaker 1 (52:37):
We got best bets and bowl games. We broke down
the college football playoffs. As we continue, Marco Clause is
giving everyone gifts, whether it be lumps of coal, Kenny
Pickett jerseys. I'm getting three beers because six, apparently it's
too many.
Speaker 5 (52:56):
Keep the beer, Marco Claus, just give me the burn.
We're good to go. Don't forget Hit that like button,
hit that subscribe button.
Speaker 1 (53:04):
Take advantage of the fill your Card promo twenty five
percent off right now at your favorite handicapper at wager
talk dot com. As we look to close out twenty
twenty four on a winning note. We will be back again,
of course, next week, as we get ready for all
of those big games coming up January first and beyond,
(53:25):
including a national championship. But until then, have a very
safe but profitable Christmas. Enjoy your holiday. We'll see you
again on another edition of the College Football bet on It.
Speaker 5 (53:38):
Enjoy guys, have a marry
Well, ho ho ho, tis this season to get some
winners here in college football as we are that much
closer to get into a national championship game. Still plenty
of bowl games on tap, and we're gonna do our
best here to break down a few of these games.
Point you in the right direction as we welcome in
(00:20):
Kelly Stuart and Marco unfortunately is on vacation, So Marco
Claus is here today along with Kelly the Rudolph Stewart.
Pleasure to see you guys here as we get ready
for Round two of the college football playoffs. Not to
mention gonna get really good here with some of these
bowl games coming up. But let's start with the Sugar
(00:43):
Bowl here and take apart this game where Notre Dame
we'll be taking on Georgia. Both of these teams got
hit with some bad news as far as injuries. Beck
we know, had elbow surgery. He's out for the rest
of the player That means the backup Stockton is under center.
And then Notre Dame we found out that they're sack leader.
(01:07):
They're edge rusher Riley Mills. He's also out now. So
both teams dealing with some injuries here Khaled is pretty
much priced to to pick them, which is what we
all thought it would be. Who do you have more
faith with at this particular point in the Sugar Bowl?
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Of course I have more faith with Notre Dame.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
This is a team that's covered nine straight versus Georgia,
who's like limping into the playoffs. You mentioned no Carson back. Hey, listen,
I don't think that they would have won that SEC
Championship game without Gunner Stockton, a.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Sophomore guy coming in.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
He only threw for seventy one yards, but he did
have an interception, so keep in mind on that.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
But what did they figure out what to do?
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Wait, they finally started running the ball.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
With ETN and that is how they won the SEC Championship.
I'll give Kirby Smart the nod for having the playoff experience, right,
He's been in the National championshi two out of the
last three years. But Georgia has just been susceptible all
season long. Like I mentioned, whether it was Georgia Tech,
(02:09):
whether it was that Texas game where they did nothing offensively,
whether it was that Florida game on a neutral site
in Jacksonville, I was not impressed with this dog's team whatsoever.
On the other hand, what happened with that Indiana game?
First first up, Ryan Lennard throws an interception. I'm going,
(02:30):
oh my god, I can't believe. John Murray told me
to bet on this team, that they were the biggest
need of the weekend. And then of course Rourke got
picked off ninety eight yard touchdown interception run and that
was all she wrote. Notre Dame just absolutely throttled that
team and made them look like they did not deserve
to be there. On the defensive side of things, we
(02:52):
got to give Notre Dame the huge step up here.
I think that this defense, while the argument's going to be,
hasn't played anybody.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Let's look at the.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Last few weeks with Georgia's defense. They give up a
ton of yards on the ground, They've given up a
ton of passing yards. Now we're talking about a neutral field.
Of course, they're gonna march out Georgia as the one
and a half point favorite.
Speaker 5 (03:16):
Here.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
I said this early in the week before the other
playoff games. I said, when Ohio State waxes Tennessee and
Notre Dame beats Georgia, are we gonna finally hear everybody
shut up about the sec No, of course George is
gonna say they lost because they had a backup quarterback.
The excuses are already starting to unravel, and hey, good
(03:37):
for them. I totally get it. I expect this Georgia
Bulldogs team to well do what they've done over the
last twelve games, not cover spreads just three and nine,
that's twenty five percent. I think Notre Dame keeps it
rolling here. Give me Notre Dame on the money line.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
Cool, look at Notre Dame on the mL Marco, how
much does no back and Stockton? I'm sorry, Marco clause,
how much does that affect the way you look at
this game? Because the market doesn't seem to think it's
a big deal. I think the look aheadline was right
around this price to begin with, and we didn't know
(04:14):
Beck was out then, So what do we think we're
gonna get here?
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Well, I think Kelly's getting a lump of call because
I'm going against her. I'm taking Georgia in this one,
and yes, no Carson Beck. But how can you go
wrong when your backup quarterback is called gunner? Gunner Stockton,
let's go I mean, was there ever a quarterback named
better than that. I'm looking at this winning guy. Yeah,
(04:40):
the offense struggled against Texas. That's one of the best
defenses in the country. Notre Dames played well in their
defense has put up good numbers. But Kelly, you said
it yourself. The question is the quality of teams that
Notre Dame has gone up against. Also, you got to
remember Stockton come into that game cold, all right. When
(05:03):
you're preparing for a game, the starter is getting all
of the reps. You have a game plan, it's devised
for him, and he's getting the reps. Stockton had to
come in cold run the offense game plan that was
set for the other guy. I think this is actually
an advantage for Georgia because there's really not a lot
(05:24):
of game film on Stockton. Okay, he's you know, he
only played last week, or I should say in the
SEC Championship game, and then he only had some cameo
appearances during the season when games got out of reach
where he got a little bit of playing time. They're
gonna have a game plan devised for him, They're gonna
(05:45):
have all of the reps. He's gonna be ready. He's
had three plus weeks to get ready for this game,
and they've had nothing to do but prepare for Notre Dame. Yeah,
they prepared a little bit for Indiana, but everybody was
talking how Indiana didn't belong here. All their focus would
have been on Notre Dame and that element of surprise.
(06:06):
Notre Dame doesn't know what to expect of what the
game plan is gonna be with Georgia. I think that's
an advantage. We talked about coaching both coaches I like,
but you've got to give a little bit of a
check mark to Kirby Smart. He has gotten the most
out of the least this year with this team. And
you can't erase all of the experience that Georgia has
(06:28):
had over the last several years. With the success they've
had two national championships. They should have been in the
playoffs last year they weren't, and here they are. They
found a way to get themselves back into the playoffs
this year. I think they get the job done this week.
I'm gonna go with Georgia. I think it'll be a
close game, but I think it's Georgia getting the win
(06:52):
on Saturday. And the other thing that Kelly mentioned about
Georgia not covering this year, That's true, they haven't, but
they've been laying a lot of big points. All you
got to do is win this game. We don't have
to worry about covering anything.
Speaker 5 (07:06):
Kind of like that.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
There, am I the only one that also recognizes now
you've got a backup quarterback and you're a team that
started slow in every big game this year. Georgia, they
are a second half team, big time, which is part
of the reason why they were able to come back
there against Texas, even with Stockton at QB. I think
(07:29):
Notre Dame comes into this one, and I'll split the
difference with you. You guys have Kelly's got Notre Dame
in the full game. Marco's got Georgia full game. I'm
going Notre Dame in the first half. I've seen Georgia
start far too slow in a lot of these games
coming up, and I'm not sure how the week off
is going to work here. I think Notre Dame will
(07:50):
be ready. I think Georgia in the second half, especially
if they're trailing, might not be a bad look live
as well. So that game is the Ugar Bowl. That's
one part of the Final four. If you will be
four and a four games here as we try to
get to a national championship. Also, we've got another interesting
(08:11):
one call on the other side there with Texas taking
on Arizona States in the not the Fiesta Bowl, the
actual Peach Bowl, right, so that'll be New Year's Day.
I believe that's the early game. Arizona State just kind
of sitting their mind in their own business. But yet
now they get Texas and nobody seems to think they
seem to be betting this game, like they already know
(08:33):
the outcome as well. Can you gibn I didn't see
Clemson scoring that many points against this Texas defense. Clemson
had an opportunity to stick it to him Cal and
they just couldn't get it done. Does Arizona State have
a puncher's chance in this one?
Speaker 3 (08:48):
I have not gotten to the window with Arizona State yet.
I've just been kind of sitting back. The whole world
is going to bet all four favorites this weekend after
what we saw last weekend.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
It makes a lot of sense. It looks like Indiana
SMU don't belong, which is gonna quite too. Neither does
Boise State. Neither does Arizona State, And I think that
is a very drastic mistake. Those first round of games
were on home turf. Now we're on neutral sites. Texas
fans are not going to travel to this game because
they've already got their sites on the National Championship. But
(09:20):
there's still a lot of issues going on in that
quarterback room, arch Manning waiting in the wings. Quinn Ewers
did not play a perfect game by any means. You
know who did play pretty damn well, Clemson, and that's
because they rush for almost three hundred yards. Do you
know anything about this running back from Arizona State.
Speaker 2 (09:41):
No, of course, nobody's been paying attention all year long.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Nobody thought Arizona State was gonna go out there and
win the Big twelve in their first year, not a
single person including me. But guess what, Cam Scataboo, Yeah,
he is going to have himself an absolute field day.
You can throw coach Sark off his game. We've seen
it time and time again. And what does Texas do
exactly what I said they were.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Gonna do lest last week? They let teams hang around.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
We'll see Jordan Tyson's gonna be out for Arizona State.
And that concerns me. He fractured a collarbone versus Arizona,
but they sure as hell didn't seem to miss him
in the Big twelve Championship game.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
This is the high flying Big Twelve.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
I know everybody's gonna want to run back to bet
that Texas under yet again, but I think Arizona has
their way with the Arizona State, excuse me, has their
way with this defense. Arizona State looked very good in
the Big twelve Championship.
Speaker 2 (10:33):
Game, almost too good.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Unfortunately, it's where I think this one's at thirteen and
a half.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I would love to get a fourteen.
Speaker 3 (10:40):
And I would love to get a plus four ten
four fifteen, four to twenty on the money line.
Speaker 5 (10:46):
Ye know, Caat, we saw this even with the Clemson spot.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
It was as high as fourteen, fourteen and a half
and then it started to drop just before kickoff down
to thirteen thirteen and a half. It's all about getting
the best number call, and if you're looking for a
fourteen and a half, you're waiting to see if that hooked,
then there's probably, I don't know, some sort of tool
you could probably utilize right to make sure you're on
(11:11):
top of that, I'm asking.
Speaker 3 (11:13):
Absolutely, odds Logic is the newest, latest, fastest tool that
you need at your disposal, whether it's for live betting, arbitraging,
whether it's for injury alerts, looking for betting percentages from
all of the books.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
It is fully customizable.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Right now oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
You can get it.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
Free for the next thirty days, so guys check it out.
You don't even need a credit card. It is a
great tool you need at your disposal. One last thing
about Arizona State here, Joe. Four times they've won as
an outright underdog this year. Four times. That's how much
they've been doubted. I'm not doubting Arizona State. Here, Texas
(11:54):
feeling pretty happy that they got away with it there
against Clemson.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
I'm not sure they're gonna get away with it here
in the Peach Bowl.
Speaker 1 (12:02):
And I'm pretty sure our good friend ct Betts was
betting against him and every one of those four. It's
unfortunately a lot of us lost money waiting for them
to fall off at cliff and they never did. We'll
see if they've got one more upset in them here
in the meantime, Marco, let's go to that Fiesta ball
(12:23):
another game. They seem to be betting like they already
know the score here with Penn State taking on Boisey State. Now,
I don't know what Marco D'Angelo would do, but I'm
pretty sure Marco Claus wouldn't be laying this kind of number,
or would he?
Speaker 4 (12:40):
No, he wouldn't. Joe, And I don't want you to
feel left out because Kelly's getting a lump of coal
for Christmas Stanley to forget you, Joe, He's bringing you
a three pack of your favorite beer, A three pack.
You know why, a three pack because you only watch
the first half in six is way too many beers
(13:02):
for you for one alf Thank you, all right, no problem,
nothing but the best for you, Joe. All Right, we're
gonna take a look here. And I don't want to
forget Dan. We've got a present for you, Dan too,
and forget you. I've got a slightly used Kenny Pickett Jersey.
(13:26):
I am going to gift you. I am going to
have the I have the call instead take the call. Hey,
you know what, you guys can blame Kelly for this,
all right? You got to put up with my sick
jokes because Kelly made me put the Santa suit on today.
(13:47):
All right, Okay, let's get to the festival.
Speaker 6 (13:55):
Kid, Yes, our f You know the ratings would go
up if Kelly would have had the Bell sweater.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
Okay, my my sweatshirt that I'm wearing tomorrow would have
got me anseled again.
Speaker 4 (14:15):
I'm good.
Speaker 3 (14:17):
Of all of my family members that are going to
know exactly how I feel.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
I would stand up Marco, but I'm fairly certain we
would get pulled down from from ok.
Speaker 4 (14:29):
Yes, listen, let's everybody stay seated. Okay, yes, the ball
Penn State, This line is absolutely absurd, all right. They
are totally overreacting to what happened last week in Happy Valley.
How can you have Penn State eight and a half
nine point favorite at home against SMU and be laying
(14:54):
eleven on a neutral to Boise State. Boise State's a
better team than SMU. Everybody screen that SMU shouldn't have
been in the playoffs, and they played like it. But
you know what, if you really watched that game, they
were their own worst enemy. It started on the opening drive.
They had fourth in one or two, they went for it.
(15:15):
He could have walked for the first down. Instead, he
stops and tries to make the big play and to
throw the pass for the touchdown and ends up incomplete.
He could have had the first down that had first
in goal. This would have taken the crowd out of
the game. To start the game, you go up early
on Penn State. I'm not saying they would have beat
(15:36):
Penn State, but I don't think you would have seen
the blowout that you did. Then what do they do?
Two interceptions in the game, both picked sixes. Then James Franklin,
this is something you got a factor in as well.
What was he doing when his team had not done
anything offensively yet they had the lead because of the
(15:58):
defense their own twenty yard line and he goes on
fourth and one and gets stopped. Thank god, his defense
belled him out again on another interception that saved them
when he set SMU up at the twenty yard line.
I said when the brackets came out, Penn State had
the easiest route to the semi finals, and they still do.
(16:21):
That doesn't mean they're going to cover this big number
Boise State. His only can do who's in front of
them and the one loss they had was a three
point loss to the only undefeated team in the country, Oregon.
I am going to look at Boise State on the
neutral field getting all of these points, which is way
(16:43):
too many in my opinion. I thought this line would
be the Penn State would be a touchdown favorite whenever
I was mapping it out at the beginning of the playoffs,
because if you remember, I said, take Penn State instead
of taking them on the futures at six to one,
do them on the rollover. There's no way I figured
them to be an eleven point favorite in this game.
(17:03):
Boise State doesn't beat themselves. I told you SMU self
destructed last week with the turnovers. You know many turnovers
Boise State has had this year? Eight that's it, eight
turnovers all year. And oh, by the way, what do
you want to do if you want to shorten a
game and try to keep the other team's offense off
(17:24):
the field, you want to run the football. I know
Penn State has a great defense, but they're going to
be facing the best running back in college football with
Ashton Genty for Boise State. And then throw in again
the head coaching factor. James Franklin. Somewhere along the line
is either going to be too aggressive or too conservative.
(17:48):
There's no happy medium for him. He's going to make
a mistake in this game. I think Penn State escapes
with the win, but I see this as a three
to four point game either way. Coming right down to
the end, I'll take Boise State plus the points. This
one will be a lot closer than the public thinks.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
Got to love it a little bit closer, says Marco
Clause than most people think in that one. Well, that
leaves us, of course, the granddaddy of them all right,
the Rose Bowl, where we're going to get a rematch.
Speaker 5 (18:23):
With two behemoths hero Ohio State taking.
Speaker 1 (18:26):
On Oregon, with Ohio State opening up as that slight
favorite here fifty four as a total, and listen, there
is what else can you say about what we saw
from Will Howard and Ohio State in that game against Tennessee.
Speaker 5 (18:44):
If you go back to.
Speaker 1 (18:45):
When they played and they were just a playaway from
actually beating Oregon into Oregon, and they have probably been
stewing in this for a little while here, but I
think the difference was don't forget in that game, iiO
State lost not one but two of their offensive linemen
that they had to try and reassign and regroup in
(19:08):
game live against Oregon. They well, they've they've had an
entire season to be able to adjust to that offensive
line and the issues we have heard over the last
month month and a half about all that offensive line
of Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Oh, it's a mess. You can't trust them.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Well, they lost their starting tackle there, Josh Simmons, in
the first half of that game against the Ducks in October,
and they had to scramble there. But then we just
watched them with down two starting offensive line and go
up against one of the best off defensive fronts.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
In all of football with Tennessee.
Speaker 1 (19:45):
Did those backups look like they had a problem moving
and bulldozing them?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
The answer is no. Now.
Speaker 1 (19:53):
On the flip side, Oregon also healthier than they have
been going into this game than they have over the
last month. Jordan Birch, their edge rusher, their leading pass rusher,
looks like he is back now they have had to
go the last couple of games without him, and their
go to receiver Tes Johnson also back near full strength.
(20:16):
So unlike the first time these two teams met, there
were injuries on both sides, that both teams had to
deal and it was a great game. It was a
high scoring game. Well guess what we go round to
in a neutral site game. It's a coin flip any
which way you cut this, it's a coin flip game.
But it's one that I would much rather focus on
(20:39):
the total because I definitely think points are coming in
this one. Here you're talking about an Oregon defense. Guys,
that's not even top one hundred in red zone defense.
It's what cost him in the first game points. And
every time they play a quality team they are given
(21:00):
up points. I mean they have given up what thirty
points or more, at least thirty points or more when
they have faced some of these playoff teams this year.
They end up winning the games in shootouts because they can,
but my goodness, that defense is not good. I would
compare it to the Detroit Lions here, where they're capable
of dropping forty points. But on the better teams, the
(21:21):
better offenses, they're gonna give up points here. I think
it comes down to the wire again. There is no
way I'm sweating an under in this game. I don't
care that that Landing and company have had a couple
of weeks now to get ready for this, and Ohio
State's been thinking about it. Both defenses certainly capable, but
I don't think they are going to be capable enough
(21:43):
to stop each of these offenses.
Speaker 5 (21:45):
I like the over.
Speaker 1 (21:47):
I think this thing lands in the sixties again, way
more so than it landing under fifty four points. All right, there,
you got it. So we've got all the playoff games
out of way. We do have, of course, a couple
of best bets that we're gonna break down in some
of the upcoming bowl games. But first time for some goal,
(22:08):
let's bring in our man VR. We're that much closer
to getting to a national championship here, Yanni and your
boys from Ohio State, who you've been literally screaming, screaming
at the top of your lungs that they're the best
team in the country, are going to have a chance
to prove it this week.
Speaker 5 (22:24):
What are you hearing though?
Speaker 1 (22:25):
From a steam perspective, what kind of gold is being
pushed out?
Speaker 7 (22:30):
There?
Speaker 8 (22:31):
Was not surprised, Joe to see that Ohio State steam
come in because we talked about it. Listen, with four
minutes left, they were about a minus two hundred to
win the game at Oregon, one of the toughest venues
to play. They closed about three point favorites there, so
we the market decided that Ohio State was close to
a touchdown better than Oregon when this season started. Sure,
(22:52):
they lost that game randomness towards the end, but the
sharp betters aren't going to over react to any one final.
They continued to believe that Ohio State was the better
team on a neutral field. This betting line reflects exactly that.
But don't rush if you missed the Ohio State side.
Rest assured. The Oregon money's going to come in because
(23:14):
the betting public hasn't spoke yet. They're not rushing out
to bet these playoff games. They're not tying up that
capital yet. They still have Christmas Seve, they got Christmas Day,
they got Bowl games between now and the weekend. So
rest assured and next week that there are no rush
to bet thos. It's the sharp money that's betting them,
and the fact that they got out ahead on Ohio
(23:36):
State shows you that it's a zero sum game. These
groups are not working with each other. So if I
have Ohio State and I think they should be about
a three point favorite, even though I know the betters
are going to take Oregon, I can't miss that pickum
or minus one, minus one and a half because I
know the other sharp guys looking at the exact same thing,
so they're going to lay it. That's what happened there
(23:57):
with Ohio State. Again, I think the two best team
the power rating wise, the guys I respect think Notre
Dame is probably the strongest team in the country by
about a quarter of a point through half a point
over Ohio State. But my futures that I'm holding a
ticket on, I have Ohio State at a little better
than five to one and I got Penn State at
a little better than five to one, and I'm comfortable
(24:17):
with both of those. As far as some sides and
totals that I could touch on and share with you.
With college bowl games I talked to in the beginning
bowl games, bull season playoffs, that's where the money is.
I've been firing nothing but four percent plays pretty much.
It's one percent of bank roll, and I think number
one in profit in December in college football. This is
(24:38):
what we live for. I'll give you a couple sides. Now,
we did bet North Carolina, but I think you're too
late to the party. Because I laid minus two. That's
up to the key number of three. So it's on
you whether you want to take the risk. I took
Toledo as well. I'm on Toledo plus seven. You can
still get seven there again, follow fade.
Speaker 5 (24:55):
It's up to you.
Speaker 8 (24:56):
I talked about it a couple of weeks ago. We
had taken Michigan as soon as this opened up. We
had taken Michigan plus the ten over Alabama. Alabama's now
a thirteen point favorite. So that's a terrible bet. Even
if Michigan covers this spread. I made a bad bet.
That's one of the downside risks of getting out ahead
of the market. But if you could be right, six
out of ten times you're ahead of the game, seven
(25:18):
out of ten times you're crushing it, eight out of
ten times you're in that half percent. But it's gonna
happen where some of those numbers go against us. So
obviously we took the Michigan side, but it doesn't look
like at a very good bet because early on, Joe,
remember there's a lot of changes of coaches and guys
not going to play and going into the draft, portal
and all that stuff. So a lot changes between when
(25:40):
these lines first went up and when they kick off.
But for the most part, we did pretty good. Like
we took Baylor plus one and a half. I think
Baylor went to favorite. They're about a two point favorite now.
We took Buffalo as a dog. I think Buffalo's now
a favorite in that game as well over Liberty. What
else can I get? Oh, Louisiana Tech. I just gave
(26:02):
those out to subscribers yesterday. We took Louisiana Tech. I
think plus seventeen and a half and plus seventeen, and
like I said, I had the over tonight, but I
gave it my guys at sixty two. That's something like
sixty six. I probably wouldn't bet it. I wouldn't release
it now, and I do like the sand Who's eighth
state side, but there has been resistance. I actually talked
(26:22):
about it with pres I bet more on San Jose
State than I should have because I thought it was
gonna go to three and a half or four and
I was going to have a nice two and a
half and plus four middle. That didn't happen as we
saw South Florida money start to come in. But that's
pretty much what's going on. It's gonna be interesting again
as we approach New Year's Day what really happens, because
when the public speaks, they bet big. Come New Year's Eve,
(26:44):
come New Year's Day, there will be a lot of
money bet at the window, and these lines will reflect
that money. So if you like Oregon, I really think
you shouldn't wait. I don't think you're gonna get much
better than two and a half of out. You're gonna
get that three. If you like Ohio State, I think
you could wait. You'll probably get a better number, at
least on the money line. Because let's not forget guys
that are gonna bet Oregon on New Year's Day. They're
(27:06):
not gonna take two and a half points. They're gonna
take the money line. So that's gonna give you a
discount or Ohio State, if you like them on the
money n you'll be able to get them at a
cheaper price than what the points braver reflects. Like an
arbitrary number, if a minus two and a half should
be minus one forty, that two and a half will
be minus one twenty five because of the excess money
(27:27):
line bets on Oregon. So I'm excited to see how
that game breaks out. Sorry, Joe, not to go along.
I just want to see if anything else stuck out.
Speaker 9 (27:35):
Uh.
Speaker 8 (27:36):
Yeah, that's pretty much it. Man, That's pretty much it
for college football. But again, a lot between now and
New Year's Day to get excited about.
Speaker 1 (27:44):
I don't want to read between the lines, Yanny, but
it sounds to me like the winner of this Ohio
State Oregon game is your national champion.
Speaker 8 (27:53):
Fair to say, I if it were a Joe, if
it was a three game series, I'd say it's a lock.
I be mortgaging things because the cream would rise to
the top and there's nobody better. But in a random
sixty minute game with some idiot that could throw a
fly out of nowhere for a holding call that happened
fifteen other times that he overlooked that when I walked
(28:15):
through the window broke. I swear to you that's what's
going on in my head. Every bad beat I ever
suffered goes through my mind because all I want to
do is bet every last penny. Like sometimes I have
that much conviction that I would to bet every last penny.
And then, as I remind myself, is I'm walking up
to the window. Dude, Remember that holding call, Remember that
that ninety nine yard fumble returned for a touchdown that
(28:36):
you didn't need with time running out, Like those things
are the flashbacks. You got to remember. There are no locks.
There are no locks.
Speaker 5 (28:42):
There are no locks.
Speaker 8 (28:43):
But Ohio State I believe will win the National Championship.
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Certainly the tougher side of the bracket coming from over there,
that is for sure. Yann need a greeg lockloaded ready
to go. Here, my man, listen, I have a safe
and happy and profitable Christmas. Brother.
Speaker 5 (28:59):
We'll see you again come National Championship time.
Speaker 1 (29:03):
In the meantime, we got to bring in the pen,
mister Ralph Michaels in the house to talk a little TNA.
You're gonna head two Saturday, December to twenty ninth for
the Military Ball in Annapolis as North Carolina State taking
on the East Carolina And how are you looking at
this one.
Speaker 4 (29:23):
In state game? But not a rivalry.
Speaker 9 (29:25):
The last time these two played, Joe was nineteen ninety two.
The interesting thing is they're going to play twice in
a row the bowl game and then they start off
against each other in twenty twenty five as the season
opener for both teams. NC State, much like my NFL
best bet, started the season poorly oh and seven ats,
(29:47):
but they finished covering four of the last five. Now,
can you can you give a reason why that is?
And I absolutely can remember. NC State had some high hopes.
Grayson McCall came over as a transfer quarterback, played the
first two games, a win against Western and then a
loss against Tennessee, and then got Kurt game three, so
(30:09):
they had to go to CJ.
Speaker 4 (30:11):
Bailey. CJ.
Speaker 9 (30:12):
Bailey, a true freshman who wasn't expected to play this year,
then gets put into the starting lineup again. He struggled early,
but as I said, he has come on significantly and
they finished covering four.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Of the last five games.
Speaker 9 (30:28):
You look at their offense and production, it is night
and day from where they were to where they finished,
and with that passing game improving, they were able to
rush for two hundred and fifty three and two hundred
and twenty yards the last two games, both were on
the road at Georgia Tech and at North Carolina, and
they averaged over six yards per carry in those final
(30:50):
two games. When I look at Bowl teams that are
six and six versus an opponent that has seven or
more wins. We've talked about this before, but this team
and this coaching staff has a legacy to play for
moving forward. Was this twenty twenty four NC State wolffag
(31:12):
team a winning team or a losing team. So six
and six teams facing a team with more than six
wins that is off a win sixty six point seven
percent against the spread since two thousand and eight. And
if they're off a win and their opponents off a
loss in a bowl game, that is a sixty three
(31:33):
point four percent situation. Now, if the team is also
a favorite like NC State that won is a favorite
their last game and their opponent lost as a dog,
all about eleven and three seventy eight point six percent
against the spread. So a six and six bowl team
off a win against the positive against a team with
seven or more wins, a bowl team off a win
(31:57):
in a and is a favorite against the opponent off
of loss, and an opponent that won their last game
as a favorite versus an opponent that lost their last
game as a dog. Are the three play on situations
for North Carolina. When I look at East Carolina, they
had a quarterback injury as well. They needed to switch
quarterbacks mid They only played three teams that finished the
(32:19):
season within winning record.
Speaker 5 (32:21):
And listen to this.
Speaker 9 (32:22):
If you look at their points per game diff against
those three teams, they were minus fourteen points per game.
That is number ninety six in the country. NC State
their problem was turnovers. They played six teams that finished
the season with winning records, and in those six games,
they were minus six turnovers. If NC State doesn't turn
(32:42):
the ball over here again, you can't. You can't always
promise that's the case. But they win this game handily.
Give me the NC State Wolfpack to get to seven
and six and finish this season with a positive record.
Speaker 1 (32:55):
All right, looking for NC State to get it done.
Ralph still play in college football. Left in the season. Here, Ralph,
as we wind down twenty twenty four, what do you
have available for folks at your page at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 9 (33:11):
Getting ready to load a few more bullpages. Off to
a perfect four no start this year in the Bulls,
A couple games that have had circled I've been waiting,
it seems now last year, it seems the information we
have now came in quicker and more thorough than in
the past. Last year we're having people opt out the
day before in the game before we've sort of seen
where that's not the case this year. Hopefully that continues.
(33:34):
But again that's the delay on me loading bull plays
too early. It's worked so far. So a couple of
great specials, and don't forget, guys, from Christmas to New
Year's every day, every package, absolutely no restrictions. Fill your
cart and save twenty five percent off every purchase you make.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
All right, it's time to talk to our good friend
Art de Caza here at the Westgates Superbook in Las Vegas,
as we're that much close to Art. Now that we've
gotten rid of the SMUs of the world and the
Indianas of the world, now we get down to the
nitty grittia. Though some are saying, I don't know, does
Arizona State really deserve to be here as a fourteen
(34:17):
point dog? It is Boise State going to be even
competitive against Penn State. What is the market telling you
in some of these games coming.
Speaker 5 (34:26):
Up so far?
Speaker 10 (34:28):
Well, all I'll say is the committee is going to
look real bad here with the Indiana and SMU performances
and now three of their four buy teams are underdogs,
and two of them are enormous underdogs. But obviously you
get two really good games, and I think you have
to look at it like this. Obviously the two big
games Penn State Boise at Texas in a issue with
(34:50):
the big spreads. They won't generate as much action as
the other two. And obviously those are four name brands,
and when you have spreads basically with in a point
or two everything under a field goal, those are going
to generate really good two way action type handles on
those games. So we look for those two games Ohio
(35:12):
State and Oregon and Georgia Notre Dame to really carry
kind of the days for us on these you know,
a couple of days.
Speaker 7 (35:20):
I know it's split between one day and then a
triple header.
Speaker 1 (35:24):
Yeah, I guess maybe the good news art for the
committee is that, you know, it used to be when
we get blowouts in those games leading up to the championship,
you'd have to wait a month, got to wait like
a little more of a week, I guess, out of sight,
out of mind, if the games are competitive, all will
be well. The problem is those spreads and some of
these totals are interesting too. Are we seeing anything in
(35:47):
the totals market at all in any of these games
being pushed one way or the other.
Speaker 10 (35:51):
You know, the only thing I can say on totals
is the Ohio State Oregon total has gone up from
our opener fifty four to fifty five. Obviously, when they
play it, I believe that was a thirty eight to
thirty five games, something in that range. So you know,
that game was obviously in the low seventies, so that's
no surprise. But honestly, the other three games, Penn State, Boise,
(36:13):
we opened fifty three, we're still fifty three. Texas Arizona
State we opened fifty two and a half. We're still
fifty two and a half. Georgia Notre Dame we were
forty four and a half, So that's gone down half
a point to forty four. But nothing crazy. We just
moved with the market on that. The Ohio State Oregon
is really sharp money that came in on over fifty
four moving us to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (36:36):
We'll get to some ball games here in just a second.
But is there any movement in the futures market of
you seeing are we getting a lot of Ohio State
you know, champion money. Are we getting Georgia? Are we
getting Texas? You're seeing anything being pushed one way or
the other in the futures.
Speaker 7 (36:54):
Not really, Joe, But this is what I'll say to everyone.
Speaker 10 (36:56):
Everyone looks at it and goes, Okay, Texas is the favorite,
and we have Texas as the favorite, with obviously Ohio
State and Oregon right behind them. What is going to
happen is the second the winner of the Oregon Ohio
State game happens. Unless Texas went sixty three to nothing,
which I guess could happen, the Ohio State Oregon winner
(37:17):
is going to instantly be installed as the bet on favorite.
They're just gonna be. They're gonna end up being the favorite.
They're both highly more highly power rated than Texas. It's close,
but both teams will be favored against Texas, you know,
no matter what that matchup is. I guess, like I said,
unless Texas really goes out there and crushes Arizona State.
(37:39):
But for us, our big thing is we got to
get Bois out of there. We get crushed on Boise.
We feel good that it is Penn State, you know,
Penn State. Now we open nine and a half they're
an eleven point favorite. So we feel good about Penn
State going out there and beating Boise and knocking Bois
out of the future. But for US, Ohio State, Oregon,
Notre Dame, Georgia, we do really well on all those teams.
Speaker 7 (37:59):
So it's shaping up to be a pretty good future
book for US.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
In Notre Dame beats Georgia, I would expect the Notre
Dame money to come flooding and everybody back in the
fighting Irish here. They got such a such a big
popular fan base, that's kind of crazy.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
Here.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
What about some of these other Bowl games though, we've
got a bunch, only got one on Christmas Eve, but
we got a bunch coming up towards the weekend before
we get to those playoff games.
Speaker 6 (38:26):
Here.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
Are you seeing anything? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (38:29):
You are?
Speaker 10 (38:29):
I mean, I think an interesting one is you look
at the Oklahoma Navy game, and you know that thing
was as high as eight eight and a half. Obviously,
we no, Navy's not gonna lose anyone to transfer portals
or anything like that. They're gonna play their hearts out.
Oklahoma's now just a three point favorite. Washington State looks
like they can barely feel the team geez, And I
(38:51):
mean we're the highest on the market. We're seventeen. There's
still some sixteens out there that to me is a
game that could move potentially get to twenty one by kickoff.
It just feels that way. It feels like it could
go all the way up that high. I mean, like
I said, we're the highest you could be right now.
(39:11):
We took some chart money on Nebraska minus two and
a half. We're up to three and a half. That's
against Boston College. We took chart money on Alabama at
ten and a half against Michigan. We're all the way
up to thirteen on that game. And then we started
to see the sharp by on BYU. We saw sharp
by on BYU plus five plus four and a half.
We're now all the way to four against Colorado. Because
(39:34):
I think there's still a lot of people real skeptical
on Shador and Travis Hunter playing. That's basically the number
one and number two picks in the draft. Why would
those kids play It feels impossible to me. Maybe they
play a series, but for them to play the full game,
it seems crazy. So I think the Sharps are leaning
into that and trying to take the best of the number.
Speaker 5 (39:54):
Right now, that's kind of crazy here I'm seeing.
Speaker 1 (39:58):
Also, it's interesting the Baylor line I think flipped at
one point right with LSU here it looks like are
you getting nothing but Baylor money as well?
Speaker 10 (40:09):
Yeah, it's a good call, Joe. We did move Baylor
to the favorite. That was basically like a pick them
type game. But you know, when we were sitting pick them,
we saw some money come in on Baylor.
Speaker 7 (40:19):
Move Baylor. I think we're as high as one and
a half.
Speaker 10 (40:21):
Think believe we're now back to one, so that's still
kind of a pick them game, But most of the
money and the sharp early money did come in on Baylor.
Speaker 7 (40:29):
You're correct on that.
Speaker 5 (40:31):
I got some Baylor money. It is all right.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
I won't hold it to you, but who it feels
like the Ohio State and Oregon winner will be your
national champion. Anything can happen, but it feels like it's
coming from that side of the bracket.
Speaker 5 (40:47):
Are you on that page as well?
Speaker 7 (40:50):
I am, and I'm on the Ohio State Bamwigon.
Speaker 10 (40:52):
I think they're the best team in the country if
they play the way they played on Saturday against Tennessee
and that's a good Tennessee team win.
Speaker 7 (41:00):
They're gonna win the national championship.
Speaker 10 (41:02):
Texas to me, is a little spotty offensively, their defense
is obviously really good. Ohio State just has so many weapons. Now,
Oregon's gonna put up a fight here. That to me
is going to be a tremendous game.
Speaker 7 (41:13):
But I'm with you.
Speaker 10 (41:14):
I think the winner of that game, like I said,
will be the new national championship favorite and should be,
and I believe it's going to be Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (41:22):
All right. One final question here.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
I didn't see it at the West Gate though, but
I would imagine the North Texas Texas State total?
Speaker 4 (41:30):
Are you at eighty yet?
Speaker 5 (41:31):
Because I can't imagine how high that total.
Speaker 1 (41:34):
Is going to get before kickoff on the on the
what is it the second or third of January?
Speaker 5 (41:40):
I can't Where are you at right now on that total?
Speaker 10 (41:43):
That's a great question. I don't know it off the
top of my head, but you are right now. It's funny,
side is totally moving that. It's been a lot of
Texas State money, you know what I mean? Texas State? Yeah, huge,
I mean we're basically at two touchdowns now. Because I
remember we moved that, I believe from ten and a
half to thirteen yesterday. But you're right, that's one of
those totals where you know, we probably can't make it
(42:04):
high enough. And you know on these low tier bowl
games show you know a game that's gonna kick off
on January, you know, two, three, four of those type
of things.
Speaker 7 (42:13):
We'll get most of our action day of game.
Speaker 10 (42:16):
Because I think most people are like they'll wake up
that day and be like, oh, there's a Bowl game,
and then they want to go out and bet it.
Speaker 5 (42:21):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (42:22):
I started as high as sixty seven and a half
when it opened, so I can only imagine what's going
to happen by the time we get to game.
Speaker 5 (42:28):
They there, Art does Caesar of the West Gate.
Speaker 1 (42:32):
Of course you can check him out every weekend here
on Last Call on Wage to Talk TV. Art have
a very safe, profitable, and happy Christmas man. We appreciate
it as always. As we get ready here for some
best bets. All right, Kelly, let's start off here with
(42:53):
a ball game we just heard from Art to Caesar
says that, well, we kind of got a line flip
here in this Bowl game where LSU might have been
a slight favorite, but now it looks like the Baylor
Bears are a slight favorite.
Speaker 5 (43:08):
What are you thinking about this game?
Speaker 3 (43:10):
Yeah, I think Baylor plus one and a half. But
I'm not gonna sit here and say it's not a
significant line move. But I think it's the correct line move.
And that's because, man, the Tigers are just bleeding out.
Not only do they lose both their starting offensive tackles,
they're tight end who are leaving for the NFL Draft early.
(43:30):
They got a lot more going right behind them in
the transfer portal CJ.
Speaker 2 (43:36):
Daniels as well. So look, Baylor's rosters almost all but intact.
Speaker 3 (43:41):
They won six straight games to close up the season,
and I think not only did Dave Ronda save his job,
but he's got his team ready to play here in
the Texas Bowl.
Speaker 2 (43:52):
I know nus Meyer is going to play for.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
The Tigers, which is pretty good news for them, but
that team still has dropped three of their last five
and only covered one game over that time span. As
I mentioned Baylor peaking at the right time, I think
you lay it here with the Baylor Bears, and no.
Speaker 2 (44:13):
I don't think this one's coming back.
Speaker 3 (44:14):
I think it's headed to two, So do not wait
until New Year's Eve to bet this one.
Speaker 1 (44:19):
Get it in Baylor Bears, dan Fred Elly and our
best bets Marco Clause.
Speaker 5 (44:26):
Boy.
Speaker 1 (44:26):
I've been trying to figure this one out here when
it comes to the transfer portal and who might be
in or out. One of these teams seems to be
in better shape than the other. But my goodness, USC
and Texas A and M, how are you breaking this
one down?
Speaker 8 (44:44):
Well?
Speaker 4 (44:44):
Joe? Before I get into this one, just a quick
reminder this week at wager Talk Holiday twenty five, it'll
save you twenty five percent on any package at wager Talking.
You can use that pick up a seven day package,
thirty day package, whatever you want from Anny Kapper and guys,
we've had a great run in twenty twenty four. Number
(45:06):
one in hockey currently this year, number one in hockey
the last three years, number one in the NBA over
the last four years, and all all of our plays
including football, basketball, baseball, every play since September twenty fourth.
We're number one at wager Talking money won as well.
So check it out, save yourself twenty five percent. Just
(45:29):
put in Holiday twenty five at checkout, Joe. I'm going
to take a look at the game right here in
Vegas with USC. And you know what, when I first
looked at this, I'll be honest, my first reaction was
I'll probably be fading USC. How excited can USC be
to be playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. This is
(45:50):
a program with a rich tradition that expects to be
competing for a national championship, at least make the playoffs whatever,
especially with the expanded format this year, they thought they
would be there, but they're not. But public opinion is
going to be in this game. It's an SEC team
(46:11):
playing a defunct PAC twelve team now in the Big Ten.
And we know the SEC is the best conference in football.
That's what everybody says. Well, it wasn't this particular year.
And when I dug deeper into this game, and as
we get closer to game day and I start listening
to the different players and the sound bites and the interviews,
(46:34):
the more I'm warming up to USC. Lincoln Riley wants
to build for next year. This is obviously a disappointing
season for him, but the fact that he has shifted
gears in looking forward to next year goes with the
fact that he went ahead and benched his highly talented quarterback,
Miller Moss. He replaced him with Jadeen have And this
(46:58):
is a quarterback that played three games, completed sixty one
percent of his passes, nine hundred and six yards over
those three starts, and a seven to two touchdown to
interception ratio. USC sits at six and six. Why is
that significant? Well, obviously, as I said, that's not the
(47:20):
goal to have a seven and six season if you're
a USC. But you also don't want to be a
losing team. You don't want to be labeled the twenty
twenty four losing edition of USC. It's a mental motivator
to get to that seventh win and be have the
winning season. Also, there's a couple of intangibles here. Heading
(47:41):
into their last two games, Texas A and M was
in control of their own destiny. They could have been
playing in the SEC Conference championship game. But what happened.
They had an absolutely gut wrenching loss to Auburn in
the second to last game of the Sea went to overtime.
Lost that game in overtime. I got to six or
(48:05):
it was crazy because they were doing the two point
conversions in that game and then they played Texas hard
fought game, lost seventeen to seven. They got to be
deflated to be where they're at in the Las Vegas Bowl.
And as you know, there's a few distractions here in Vegas.
(48:26):
Teams that come to Vegas for the first time, it
could be a challenge to stay focused. That should not
be a problem for USC. They've played here before. The
PAC twelve Championship game has been played in Vegas for
several years now. Also, USC played here earlier this year.
(48:46):
They played in the Kickoff Classic against LSU in one
on this field, Allegiance Stadium. But here's the other part.
The quarterback that is not quarterbacking for USC, Well, he
came to USC through the transfer portal. You want to
guess where he quarterback last year? Yeah, that breakout season
(49:07):
for the UNLV running Rebels. He knows this stadium, this town.
This is gonna be a homecoming for him. I'm gonna
go ahead and ride USC that all of the vibes
I'm hearing and seeing says that this team's ready to play.
Give me the dog with USC against Texas A and.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
M oh with USC getting it done against Texas A
and m kind of crazy there when you think about it,
as we're all trying to piece together exactly who's playing
and who's not playing, and there is one game in
which is just absolutely bonkers when you think about it,
(49:48):
because trying to figure out who's playing and who's not playing, well,
do it in the Texas A and M and the
techne Texas Tech rather an Arkansas game in which, yeah,
let's start with Texas Tech. Who's got well, let's see
a defensive coordinator, fired, offensive coordinator. Well, guess what, he
(50:14):
is no longer there because he took the head coaching
job at FAU. So now we're scratching our head, going
you gotta be kidding me. However, coach McGuire still there
in this game, and he is one of the big
reasons why I love Texas Tech. Here and a slight
plus money price is that even though you have the attrition,
(50:37):
and even though Morton won't be playing in this game,
the quarterback for Texas Tech, freshman Will Hammond, who saw
some action this year, will be under center. What's really
got me is as much as you have defensive coordinator, fired,
offensive coordinator gone, still got your head coach when you
look at what happened over at Arkins. This team literally
(51:01):
has not enough scholarship offensive linemen to fill the line.
Speaker 5 (51:08):
That is correct.
Speaker 1 (51:09):
They have got everybody gone on the offensive side of
the ball, and Taylor Green we backed in a number
of spots here. One heck of a playmaker at the
quarterback position former Boise State quarterback. His ability to make
plays is great. But the problem is the Red Raiders
with McGuire, and I don't care that they fired the
(51:30):
defensive coordinator. He should have been fired.
Speaker 5 (51:32):
He was terrible.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
They are going to be able to get home against him.
They are going to make his life miserable. Why because
he has none protection. Arkansas is left with absolutely zero
protection and experience to protect him on the offensive line.
There are not any scholarship linemen left on the roster.
(51:55):
They also have nothing left at the skill positions, as
all of their starting and backup wide receivers as well
as running backs are gone. So when you put it
all together, Arkansas has far, far too many portal.
Speaker 5 (52:12):
And guys that are left.
Speaker 1 (52:14):
There far too much experience not in this game. For
my liking, I love coach McGuire in this spot. He
will have this team ready. Even though the coaching staffs
a little different. He'll have these guys ready to go.
I think Texas Tech wins this game, and I think
they win it rather easily. Great opportunity to get him
at a slight plus money price.
Speaker 5 (52:36):
And there you got it.
Speaker 1 (52:37):
We got best bets and bowl games. We broke down
the college football playoffs. As we continue, Marco Clause is
giving everyone gifts, whether it be lumps of coal, Kenny
Pickett jerseys. I'm getting three beers because six, apparently it's
too many.
Speaker 5 (52:56):
Keep the beer, Marco Claus, just give me the burn.
We're good to go. Don't forget Hit that like button,
hit that subscribe button.
Speaker 1 (53:04):
Take advantage of the fill your Card promo twenty five
percent off right now at your favorite handicapper at wager
talk dot com. As we look to close out twenty
twenty four on a winning note. We will be back again,
of course, next week, as we get ready for all
of those big games coming up January first and beyond,
(53:25):
including a national championship. But until then, have a very
safe but profitable Christmas. Enjoy your holiday. We'll see you
again on another edition of the College Football bet on It.
Speaker 5 (53:38):
Enjoy guys, have a marry
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