September 3, 2025 • 39 mins
Dive into the heart of NFL betting with our expert panel! Join Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo and Gianni the Greek as they provide in-depth analysis and professional insights on Week 1 NFL games.
Intro 00:00
Thursday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles 1:18
NFL Week 1 Teasers 5:00
Sunday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills 8:05
Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears 9:47
Steam Report with Gianni the Greek 13:50
Barking Dogs 16:00
Marco Barko 16:30
VR’s Dog 19:15
KIV’s Dog 22:37
Marco D’Angelo’s Trap Game of the Week 25:00
Best Bets 28:00
VR’s Best Bet 28:10
Marco’s Best Bet 31:59 (77 deal)
KIV 35:40
Recap 38:12
Outro 38:27
Intro 00:00
Thursday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles 1:18
NFL Week 1 Teasers 5:00
Sunday Night Football: Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills 8:05
Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears 9:47
Steam Report with Gianni the Greek 13:50
Barking Dogs 16:00
Marco Barko 16:30
VR’s Dog 19:15
KIV’s Dog 22:37
Marco D’Angelo’s Trap Game of the Week 25:00
Best Bets 28:00
VR’s Best Bet 28:10
Marco’s Best Bet 31:59 (77 deal)
KIV 35:40
Recap 38:12
Outro 38:27
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Super Bowl felt like an eternity ago, but now
Week one is back. This is bad on it. Let's
get into the Week one NFL slate. Kelly Stewart here
(00:26):
with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek guys. We've been
anticipating this moment for a really long time. These lines
have been out basically since May. I feel like we
have talked about the NFL at nauseum here at wager
talk dot com, whether it's divisional previews, super Bowl previews,
regular season win totals. I'm ready for the season to
(00:48):
get started, but I'm already sweating my survivor pick. We're
gonna get into some of those here in just a
little bit, but first we're gonna geto those primetime games.
Thursday Night football. Dallas is an eight point under dog
at Philadelphia forty seven and a half. Here is the
total VR break down this NFC East rivalry.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, listen, gun to my head. You're going to force
me to take the points here with the Dallas Cowboy,
especially now that it's up over a touchdown. This was
at six and a half at one point, got the seven,
seven and a half, now eight, You could even find
eight and a half and who knows where it will
end once the teasers start rolling in, and the books
have to protect themselves against the teaser. So the possibility
(01:29):
that gets up to that nine is a lot greater
than it getting back to seven, because if the betting
syndicates were going to get down on Dallas, they would
have done it already able to get eight. Eight and
a half's out there, So be cautious there. And if
you like Dallas, I think you should wait. If you
like the Eagles, you probably missed the boat because, like
(01:49):
I said, it should just continue to climb as the
teasers start rolling in. But look at the history of
this series. Last year Eagles dominated. That's a rarity. If
you look over the last ten games, I don't even
have to look flip a coin. I bet they're close
to fifty to fifty. You look over the last twenty
games between these two, don't have to look flip a coin.
(02:10):
Close to fifty to fifty. Whom away really doesn't matter.
Like they each team is probably one five or the
last ten straight up, the other team won five at
the other five. One cover five, the other covered the
other five. Like that, they just split. They play tough
games regardless of the type of season. It's just that
kind of rivalry. And I think Dallas is I don't
(02:32):
expect Dallas to have a great season. I bet to
know that they will not make the playoffs. But this
is Week one. You've had time to prepare for one
team and one team only, and you know the super
Bowl champs are who you're playing. Not only a rival,
but they're now they're defending super Bowl champs. I think
all the concern about Dallas is now defensive line. I
(02:54):
don't think that's going to be a problem. They were
loaded before that. I think they're going to give the
Eagles some pressure there because that's what the Eagles are
gonna have to do. Protect Hurts, get that running game going.
But let's not forget Barkley's coming off of two thousand
yard season, you got to expect a regression. In fact,
you got to expect the regression from the entire Eagles
(03:16):
offense that had that kind of outlier season. Just look
at the red zone efficiency. Finally talking about the red
zone efficiency, if you look at the Eagles have one
of the top five home field advantages in the NFL
going into twenty twenty five season, With that said, for Dallas,
it really doesn't matter. In fact, they did better on
(03:36):
the road last season, and that was one of their problems,
that red zone efficiency. They were thirty first in the NFL.
You got to be able to put points up on
the board when you get into the red zone. That
has to do with a lot of luck, and luck
tends to regress and progress towards the mean, like you
can't continue to get lucky or unlucky forever. And I
(03:58):
think Dallas had a lot of bad luck last year,
especially if you look at turnover margin and all of that.
But like I said, with them doing better offensively in
the red zone, book more so defensively in the red zone,
regardless of playing home or away, it's almost been the same,
something better on the road at times. I got to
take the points here again, rivalry game. I haven't gotten
(04:20):
to the window yet. They may force me if it
continues to climb, But I like the dog here, dogger
pass for me.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
All right, Viera, let's kind of talk about some of
those teasers. I know you and I break them down
on Last Call every single Sunday this year, it's gonna
be hosted by Aaron Epstein, so I can have a
day off. That being said, I'll still be watching because
I want to know the most efficient markets, as we
know in the NFL, will be Sunday morning. So you
always say wait to bet the teasers. Yeah, I do
a show on Monday. It's called Opening Line Report, and
(04:49):
I don't want to see if you agree with Teddy Covers,
he said he's not betting any Week one teasers and
there's so many available. Tell me why you don't think
anybody should or should not be betting teasers this week
and including the Philadelphia Eagles in it.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
No, I think you should. In fact, it's even better
in Week one to use teasers in the NFL because
the mean absolute error is closer, meaning the average NFL
game okay, finishes ten point two points off the point
spread on average. So even though we say that Vegas
is is so sharp, they're so on point the fact
(05:27):
that they're not trying to predict the outcome with a
point spread. This is a perfect reflection of that because
again on average, they are ten point two points off
of the point spread compared to the final score. In
Week one that drops to nine point nine okay, so
even a little less when you're using the teaser, that's
(05:50):
what you want. You want the game to fall near
the point spread. That's where it helps you. But what
you have to remember with the teaser is this. Okay,
the even money teasers are no longer available. Okay, if
you could find minus one twenty on a six point teaser,
your break even is seventy four point one percent. That's
(06:13):
what your break even is. Okay. If you're able to
go through the key numbers of three and seven, you
will win about seventy six percent of those bets, so
your break even is seventy four. You'll win about seventy
six so you'll have about a two percent edge over
the books. At minus one twenty, most can still even
(06:36):
get minus one twenty. Most are in betting one twenty
five's even one thirties. You can't go above one thirty.
I say, don't even go above moneth twenty five if possible,
because again you're making your edge even smaller, maybe a
one percent edge, and you're gonna have a lot of
volatility that way, which is why we've changed it up.
(06:56):
With how I do it, I like to look at
more closer to the closes the line because I want
the market to be as efishing as possible. You don't
want an inefficient market with teasers, because you're only going
to catch your teaser if the game lands near the number.
Keep that in mind. So again, going through three and six,
if you're able to lay one twenty or better, you'll
(07:16):
have about a two percent edge over the books laying
one twenty five or worse. That edge lessons because again,
you gotta win seventy four point one percent at getting
six points on the teaser. That's your break even at
minus one twenty at minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
All right, I appreciate that look into some of the
teasers and your opinion on Week one teasers. There's just
so many. We'll get to some more of these games
that fall with in that, but first we got to
go to Sunday night football. We've seen this one balance
all over the place. Buffalo minus one and a half
Baltimore pick them fifteen and a half is pretty much
where the total has started to subside. I know some
(07:56):
under money came in early. And here's how I have
to look at this one. All right, These two teams
have played six times since twenty eighteen. I got three
wins apiece Baltimore did have that nice home win last
year during the regular season, but guess what the Bills
got the one that mattered in the playoffs. That one
was no fun for me and my Lamar Jackson and
(08:19):
Baltimore ravens super Bowl future which would have cashed because
it was parlayed with the Florida Gators. I don't want
to talk about it. I know why the under money's
come in six one and one in the last eight
meetings between these two. Look, let's take out everything we
saw in preseason. Let's take out everything we saw last year.
Let's look at these two teams on Sunday night football.
(08:40):
I don't think there's a lot of value here. The
Bills don't lose games at home. Baltimore the rubber is
meeting the road. I had the pleasure of recording the
press yesterday and he said, Lamar Jackson is two in
consistent and I said, wait what, we are not blaming
Lamar for that playoff loss last year. I do think
(09:01):
that betting against Josh Allen is not fun. I also
think betting against Lamar is not fun. I do also
think you've got to take the better defense here, and
that is Baltimore, So give me the pick them, give
me the plus one and a half, of course, because
you should be shopping around on your odds logic screen.
Marco DiAngelo, I'm kicking it to you. I know that
(09:22):
wasn't a very definitive Ravens at a pick them because
I'm not going to get there with my hard earned money.
But something for our audience to look at, Will you
beginning to the window on Monday Night football with your
hard earned money? Vikings minus one and a half Chicago
forty three and a half is the total?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Well, Kelly, you look at this one in We've seen
the line move in this one as well. Chicago opened
the favorite in this one minus one and a half,
and we've seen it do a complete flip to the
Vikings being one and a half point favorite, And to
be honest with you, they should have been the favorite
from the start. They are fundamentally the better team. While
(09:59):
a public opinion and sees it differently, most people expect
the Bears to be improved this year, especially with the
hiring of the Detroit Lion offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as
the head coach. We all know how bad the head
coaching has been in Chicago the last few years, so
definitely an upgrade there. Also, it's an automatic public opinion
(10:23):
that a rookie quarterback is going to have a better
year in his second year. That's just, you know, the
way you think of progression. But don't be sold on that.
A couple of reasons we've seen quarterbacks in the past.
The one that comes to mind most recently is CJ.
Stroud had a fantastic rookie season and then took a
(10:45):
little bit of a step backwards in the year two.
We're going to see that the question be presented in
Washington this year. We saw Daniels have a great rookie season.
Will he duplicate that this year year. Here's the thing
when a quarterback of rookies in there, you don't know
what their tendencies are. You don't know what their strengths
(11:06):
and weaknesses are. Yet you've got gain film from college. Okay,
you don't know properly how to gain plan them when
you've had a full year of them in the NFL.
Defensive coordinators are going to prepare differently now to make
matters worse. But it could be plus as well for Chicago.
Depends which way you look at it. Caleb Williams is
(11:29):
going to have to learn a new offense this year, Okay,
And I go back to Cleveland and Baker Mayfield and
remember how many offensive coordinators and head coaches he went
through early on his career, and I think it really
hurt him because he had no consistency early on. We've
seen he's played much better since he's had stability at Tampa.
(11:50):
Caleb Williams, this could be a breakout season for him
under Ben Johnson, but there's gonna be a learning curve. Okay.
They didn't get a lot of playing time in pre season,
and again, what do you learn in preseason going against
vanilla defenses. He is going against one of the best
defenses in the NFL. And the question mark with Minnesota
(12:11):
this year is JJ McCarthy. What's he going to be
at quarterback? We know what the Vikings did last year.
Sam Donald had a career year, led them to the
playoffs and it fell apart in the end there, but
they had a fantastic season. If you remember, before Sam
Donald took over, the only reason he took over was
(12:32):
JJ McCarthy got hurt in preseason. This was supposed to
be McCarthy's team. So that great success last year that
Minnesota had, was it Donald or was it the system.
I'm gonna go with the system and Kevin O'Connell. I
think he's a great offensive mind, and I think Minnesota
is going to be just fine. I think heading into
(12:53):
week one, going on the road on a Monday night
football's not ideal. The crowd will be crazy night home
field slight home dog. But I've got the better team,
I think roster wise with Minnesota, I think they are
better set to start the season. It's just gonna be
(13:13):
plug and play with McCarthy and I'm gonna go with
the better defense here and we're gonna take Minnesota. Should
be a fun game on Monday night football. Don't expect
to shootout, but I'm gonna take the Vikings on Monday
night to open up the season.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
All right, Bear's another possible teaser spot there, but we're
gonna just digress and get right into the steam report.
Get those odds Logic screens, open oddslogic dot com, backslash
ace Ace to get yourself a one week free trial VR.
That train is running down the tracks and I need
(13:50):
to know these lines have been out for months. But
let's hear who's getting steamed here leading up to NFL
Week one.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Yeah, and I'm gonna focus in on the moves that
got multiple groups on top of them, and where I
haven't seen resistance. Start off Friday, Kansas City and the
Chargers over forty four over forty five is the public
that's also betting that game over that'll probably keep pushing
that number. Go on to Sunday four fifty eight, Indianapolis
(14:21):
Colts at a pick them for sixty, Jacksonville minus two
and a half and three for sixty four, Cleveland plus
the six and over forty five for six seven, Arizona
for minus four and a half up to minus six,
Detroit and green Bay under forty nine and a half,
forty nine and under forty eight, Houston and the Rams
(14:44):
under forty six four seventy nine, Baltimore plus two and
the under fifty three and fifty two, and finally Minnesota
from plus one to minus one. So those are some
of the NFL moves, But keep your eye on odds
lit heading into the weekend, you'll start to see a
lot of movement. That's when they'll start taking advantage of
(15:08):
a lot of the first quarter lines, first half lines
player props, especially as the public gets to the window
and starts forcing a lot of line moves, because again,
even though the public doesn't get respect, they bet a
lot of money when it comes to the NFL, and
money moves lines. When the books have a ton of risk,
(15:28):
they're going to try to entice action the other way.
They got to write some tickets on the other side,
and that's where you'll see a lot of bettings that
gets getting involved on game day. So best of luck,
whether you follow or a fade, hope you do some damage
with the info.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
All right, let's get into those barking dogs, my favorite
segment of course of each show, because I want to
know who's running out right. I'm addicted to that plus money.
There's been a lot of overlap. I'll say, I do
a script for us on Mondays, Marco's like, damn, and
I wanted this game. And then I go to type
it in in VRS already on it, and I try
(16:02):
to give you guys a lot of a parody here, right,
instead of overlapping. But this was a game that I
wanted as well. Marco, you like the New York Giants,
tell me why maybe the Commanders are not a good
survivor pick this week.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
All right, Kelly, Well, there's plenty of excitement in Washington.
I alluded to that in the last segment. You've got
a rookie quarterback that had a sensational season, they made
the run to the playoffs, they won a playoff game,
so obviously expectations are high in Washington. Well, you know what,
when expectations are high, that also means the line's going
(16:43):
to be inflated. And we look at this one. Washington
comes in here as a six point favorite. Last year
when they played in the first meeting in Washington, the
Commanders were just a one point favorite. Now, Washington did
win both me last year against the Giants, but they
only won them by three and five points. Are you
(17:04):
going to tell me, really that there's that much of
a difference, uh this year from last year to this
year and these two teams that there's justifies a five
point move from what the line was last year. Washington, Yeah,
on paper, they should be better, and you would expect
Daniels to have a progression this year, but as we said,
(17:26):
that's not always the case. And the Giants, a division rival,
that knows this team well. And I've got to look
at this giant roster from this year to last year.
You know, last year they were coping with life without Barkley. Uh,
this is year two. I think they're gonna be better.
You know, the quarterback situation, whether you like it or not,
(17:49):
Russell Wilson is going to be a little more have
stability for them. I think they stay in this game
right to the end. And Washington is a young team
that's just learning how to win again. I can't lay
six points with them in this one. In the home opener,
I'm gonna go ahead take the Giants. I think this
game goes right down to the wire fueld goal either way.
(18:12):
Let's go ahead and make Kelly happy and make it
the Giants twenty three to twenty pulling out the upset.
And just you know, remember the last couple of years,
there's been one of those favorites that's been a home
favorite that on paper has not looked like they could
lose out right. Remember last year when the Cincinnati Bengals
(18:33):
took out I think about half of the survivor pool
here in town. Who's gonna be that monstrosity this year?
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Yeah, I know, trust me. I've looked at Eagles on
Thursday night. I've looked at the Commanders. I don't want
to play the divisional game. We're gonna get doing the
best bat segment because it worked for me last year,
at least from a survivor standpoint. We are the Jets.
If you guys look on the odds logics and you
can maybe find yourself a three VR. Let's talk about
(19:04):
the Jets why you like them on the money line
and the difference between that two and a half and
of course that three j.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
E Ts Jets, Jets, Jets baby. Yeah again the NFL three.
They're charging so much now, like you can't even get
it for less than minus one thirty in most spots
taking off the two and a half, like to go
from minus from plus two and a half to plus three.
Most are now charging over that one thirty price. And
(19:34):
if that's what you're paying, don't do it. You're not
getting a better number. You're paying for it, and based
on the money line that you're being charged, you're overpaying.
So I know it makes you feel a little better
because three being such a key number and you thinking
if the game lands three at least, I'll push the
probability of it happening isn't high enough based on the
(19:58):
vig they're charging for that half a point, So unless
you're getting it below the minus one thirty price, I
would not be buying half a points on and off
of the three. Again, there was a long time you
were able to take advantage of that before it was
so widespread of how key of a number three is
(20:19):
and you were able to buy half a pointed a discount.
That is no longer the case here with the Jets.
We did take the three. I released that through my
subscribers as a premium play. I like it on the
money line as well. It's almost a fade of Pittsburgh
as much as a bet on the Jets. What's Pittsburgh
gonna do? I mean, they're a huge transformations taking place
(20:43):
in Pittsburgh, and it needed to because the way they
just collapsed down the stretch last year. You gotta remember,
this team got so lucky and they were still bad,
meaning only one team did better than them in turnover ratio,
and that was the Buffalo Bills. Otherwise, Pittsburgh was number
two with the number three team like four, turnovers were
(21:05):
less than Pittsburgh got. So Pittsburgh got very lucky and
they still couldn't win and cover football games. That doesn't
bode well coming into the twenty twenty five season. Now
all the hype around Rogers, not only Rogers in Pittsburgh,
but now Rogers returning to play against his old team,
(21:26):
which you know, I didn't play long for the Jets.
Too much hype around that and just not enough time
for that offense. Which I get it. He got the
names there with Metcalf and Rogers, but it's going to
take a while to see how this offense plays together cohesively.
And I just think you're being charged for that already.
(21:49):
You're being charged for potential over credentials, and that's never
a good idea, especially laying points on the road. If
they could contain JJ Watt, I think this is the
Jets game to lose. I like them here at home.
I like what I'm seeing out of their new coach,
defensive minded, defense, defense, defense, and against this Pittsburgh Steeler team,
(22:13):
that's exactly what you need to do. Give me the Jets,
take the points, sprinkle that money line. Jets start off
one and oh all.
Speaker 1 (22:21):
Right, I'm gonna take a small little doggie here myself,
because this is a tough week. We know there's gonna
be upsets. We just have to kind of sit back
and relax. But here is a game that I think
is a winnable game for the LA Chargers. Sounds so
weird not to call them San Diego all these years. Look,
Kansas City has one eight of the last ten meetings,
(22:44):
So why am I calling for them to lose this game? Well,
the last three have been decided by a total of
ten points. The Chargers have a real opportunity to win
this one on a neutral field, which we hope the
conditions are better than the last time they played in Brazil.
Patrick Mahomes basically has an all new receiving corps, plus
(23:06):
Rashie Rice is suspended. They had a turnover, a couple
turnovers on the offensive line. No Joe Sony, no DJ Humphrees.
I expect the Chargers to take advantage here of the
team with the Super Bowl hangover. We all know how
bad it is for the team that loses the Super
Bowl to come out in the next season and get
a win Week one. I get it. It's the Kansas
(23:29):
City Chiefs. You guys think that me betting against this
team is not the smartest thing I've ever done. Would
I have liked to have gotten the three and a half,
of course, But I do think that moved from three
and a half down to three over the summer tells
us exactly what we need to know. Hey, look, Andy Reid,
Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnolo and the Chiefs four and ten
(23:51):
against the spread in the last fourteen games. Think you're
paying a premium here once again for the Chiefs. It's
just not that necessary. Could be a twenty one twenty final,
and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see
the Chiefs win by a game winning field goal. But
give me the Chargers plus the three. Give me the
(24:13):
Chargers on the money line. All right, guys, let's get
into get your trap. The trap game of the week
can't be the sandwich unless Marco's feeding me open face sandwiches.
And it's right around lunchtime, so of course I'm hungry Marco.
Let's hear it. Who is the biggest trap on the
board this week?
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Okay, I'm just gonna make note, Kelly, you gave me
a lot of grief last year about always having a
small dog, but I had the biggest dog this week.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
Just making notice that you did, and I'm very proud
of you. Listen. I would love to say that this
team that is your trap game, This is who I
was gonna put in as my dog, by the way,
but you're gonna get them out of your trap game.
And I was like, we can't run it back to.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Back, no problem. And Kelly, much like I did with
the college trap game in week one, what did I say?
I like to I like to listen to the noise,
hear all the noise, and then I'm gonna go against
the noise and the noise that we heard last week.
It worked out well for us with Auburn against Baylor
(25:13):
in this spot for the trap game. Now I'm gonna
do it here with going against Cincinnati. And I know
I'm high on Cincinnati coming into this season, but I'm
not high on them in this first game because all
we heard about all summer long is how they get
off the slow starts, and to take care of that,
(25:35):
they played the starters in preseason. Joe Burrow, Zach head
coaches Zach Taylor said, we're gonna play players, We're gonna
be ready. We're not having that slow start. And what
have we seen? They put up big numbers in the preseason.
We know this offense can score a lot of points.
And then what's the noise we heard about Cleveland all
(25:55):
summer long? The quarterback room. We've made so many jokes
about that quarterback room. They had four quarterbacks. You know
what do you have when you have four quarterbacks? No quarterbacks?
When Joe Flacco is your starter, you know you're in trouble. Well, okay,
all jokes aside. Joe Flacco will be the starter and
(26:17):
he can move the football. Why because he's going against
the Cincinnati Bengals defense. That is the one Achilles Heel
to the Cincinnati Bengals defense to this team this year. Yeah,
they're gonna put up crazy numbers offensively, but defensively, they're
gonna have trouble stopping teams and they're gonna have to
outscore them. So you think, well, that shouldn't be a
(26:38):
problem because Cleveland, with that quarterback that they have, they're
not gonna move the football this year. Yeah, they'll be
able to move against this defense enough to stay in
this game. And I'm gonna bring out my Golden rule.
Give me the better defense getting points. This is a
home opener, and we've got an underdog, a division rival.
(26:58):
Are you kidding me? Too much love for the Bengals here?
They should not be this type of favorite on the road.
We saw this number at six down to five and
a half. I'm taking Cleveland and don't be surprised until
they get that monkey off their back. Cincinnati with those
slow starts losing this game outright again, but I feel
(27:20):
very comfortable with Cleveland plus the five and a half.
I think it's going to come down to a field goal.
Let's go ahead and take Cleveland winning it on a
late field goal twenty three to twenty one.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
This is Joe burrow sixth season in the NFL and
he has one and four. That's his first five starts,
one and four. B buyer beware if you are going
to use the Cincinnati Bengals again any Week one of
survivor VR eure up first here because it is time
for best best. Please let everybody know what you've got
going on over at wager talk dot com and then
(27:53):
tell me why we need to be looking at the Giants.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Plus six Sunday, NFL Week one packages up already premiums
in there, and we'll have the steam rooms Sunday leading
into kickoff. Also, NFL season packages up college football as well.
Currently sitting number one in college football. I expect the
same damage in the NFL set up nicely for a
(28:21):
good regular season, and playoffs have always been good to
us as well. So jump on board for the entire season.
That's way you get the weekly steam rooms, which will
come with all that time sensitive information that we get
player props, first quarters, all that stuff leading up the kickoff.
I don't know over towagestalk dot com. And don't overlook
the free picks page. I put free premiums every time
(28:45):
I put out a free pick. They're not just opinions.
It's a premium play off. The card best bet. I
gotta fade the Washington Redskins. Few teams are expecting the
regress like Washington. You gotta remember this is a team
that won how many fot ball games in twenty twenty three,
like four football games, and then came back and won
twelve the very next season in twenty twenty four. Historically,
(29:08):
those teams always regress. We have the flip side for
the Giants, where they won six games in twenty twenty three,
then dropped the three games in twenty twenty four. Only
one place they could go is more or less up
from there. And I like what I see on the
defensive side of the ball, and that's what you want
for your dog. If you're gonna bet a dog, you
want two things in the NFL. One you want sixty
(29:29):
minutes of effort, and you've seen against Washington this is
more or less NFC East rivalry. The history shows split,
at least recent history.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
If you look over the.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Last ten, twelve, fifteen games, you'll see close to fifty
to fifty point spread and straight up with both of
these teams. They played close games, even last year, which
was an outlier, and Washington won both they played. Both
of those games were very close, and that's what you
want from your dog. You want them to give you
sixty minutes of effort. That always leaves the back door open.
(30:04):
You know what I mean. You're down ten points, but
if a team's gonna got heart with two minutes left
and get the ball, that back door touchdowns always open,
and you want them to have the ability to win
the game out right. That's key, especially in the NFL
where we see you know, even double digit dogs can
win out right, and this is one of those dogs
that I think really can win out right because it's
(30:26):
such a big game for them in Week one that
the Giants can't allow what's happened to them in the past.
And they've been outscored in the first two the first
game of the season over the last two years sixty
eight to six, so they've they've they've played back to
blowouts in game one. I think you have a lot
of new pieces, new attitude coaching. I think you're gonna
(30:49):
get a full effort from the New York Giants. I
think you're gonna get a regression from the Washington Redskins.
You have almost the perfect storm overvalued versus undervalued. Give
me the six points with the Giants rest ashore. Washington
will be one of the most heavily teased signs on Sunday.
Be careful with that. Be careful. I sprinkled the little
(31:10):
something on the Giants money line. I think it's a
very winnable game for them. Ooh, I like to hear that.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
From a survivor perspective. I know a lot of people
will be using the Commanders on Sunday, Marco D'Angelo, it's
time for your best bet. I'm kindie, Connie, I'm kind
of curious to hear this one. Are we fading the
Green day packers noise? But before you get into it,
let's hear what you've got going on this weekend overtwagertalk
(31:36):
dot com.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Well, Kelly, we're promoting the seven day package that's available sitewide.
You can get seven days for seventy seven dollars, and
remember that includes any five percent play. Those five percent
plays sell for thirty five dollars by themselves. Good opening
week for us, last week in college football for and
oh for us. And remember last year we where the
(32:00):
number two combined college in NFL football in money one
at wager Talk. So great season last year, off to
a running start this year. Get on board and that
will include also those seven days. You'll get my baseball
plays and the WNBA plays WNBA fifty three and twenty
(32:21):
five with our selections in the WNBA, so you will
get everything. The playoffs are about to start, So seven days,
seventy seven dollars. Head over to wager Talk for this one.
We're going to take a look at Detroit and green Bay.
And you know what green Bay was getting a lot
of love during the offseason is people expect Detroit to
(32:42):
take a step backwards this year. They lost both their
offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator. Both got head coaching
jobs this year, and people expect Jordan Love, with another
year under his belt, as the starter to take that
next step forward having that experience. Well, I can't totally
(33:02):
disagree with that, But then you add what happened last
week Micah Parsons the trade from Dallas. Nobody saw this coming.
He's now a green Bay Packer and the expectations are
off the chart. Now with Green Bay, did he improve
the Packer defense by being traded there? Absolutely? But how
(33:25):
much of an impact can he possibly make him one week?
You know, they say he's going to be available, but again,
you know, you don't know the system, you don't know
playing with one another. There's gonna be growing pains at
the team, gelling to one another. People got to be
in the right positions. Will this defense be even better
(33:45):
than it was before? Yeah, but give it a couple
of weeks. If this game was played a month from now,
I probably would have a totally different opinion, But right now,
I have to look at the facts, and the facts
are Detroit has owned this series with the Packers. They've
won six of the life seven. Last year when they
played here, green Bay was a two and a half
(34:05):
point underdog and they lost by ten. Now they're a
two and a half point favorite. Are you seriously going
to tell me that the Packers have improved five points
from last year and made up that difference of the
ten points that they lost the game from I don't
think so. Until you knock the king off his crown,
(34:27):
he's still the king, and the Lions have owned this
division the last few years. I don't see green Bay
knocking them off just yet. Like I said, give me
a month and I might have a different opinion. But
for Week one, I think Detroit is better prepared to
hit the ground running, and I'm gonna go ahead and
take Detroit plus the two and a half and yeah,
(34:51):
I'll be looking at some teasers probably on Sunday as well,
with Detroit, because even if they do lose this game,
I don't see green Bay getting separation from the Lions
with that offense. That will be a very juicy looking
teaser for me.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Kelly, Yeah, Green Bay's getting a lot of love in
the marketplace this year. I'm not sure. Maybe, as you mentioned,
we should tune out some of that noise until we
see otherwise. Okay, guys, here's what I did last year
for my best bets. I gave them out on the
show because they were my survivor picks, and then they
subsequently didn't cover, but they didn't lose. So we're gonna
(35:30):
go with it again now just for personal this is
for my personal benefit only, all jokes aside. I saw
a tweet this morning and I went back and forth
on the Denver Broncos. As you can see, I grew
up a Denver Broncos fan. I have not been a
Denver Broncos fan since they won the Super Bowl. I
found great spots to bet on and against this team.
(35:51):
I think this is the week to bet on this team.
There have been twenty eight quarterbacks taking the number one
pick since the merger of nineteen seventy and their first start.
There are five twenty two to one straight up and
eight and twenty against the spread. Cam Ward making his
debut in Denver this weekend. We've talked about rookie quarterbacks
(36:11):
in their first start, especially on the road. Yeah, I know,
this Titans team went two and fifteen against the spread
the season, so we should be looking to see that reverse.
Maybe they also finished the season in minus sixteen turnover margin.
I pretty much wrote that team off Week one after
somehow losing that game to Chicago. Different quarterback, different scenario,
(36:38):
probably the same defense. Maybe they can take a step
forward this year. We'll see Broncos head coach Sean Payton
in his third year. Bo Nicks great passing attack, but man,
that running game was very frustrating. The Broncos finished in
the bottom half of the league in their rushing metrics.
So what they do. They brought in former charger JK.
Dobbins and they drafted rookie RJ.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Harvey.
Speaker 1 (37:01):
I expect the Broncos to run the ball here. I
expect them to open up that passing game for bow Nicks,
and I expect that Tennessee defense to get exploited once again.
We'll see cam Ward can't pull out some of that
magic there that he had in Miami last season, where
they somehow won every single game, well at least the
first nine. I actually even rewatched that col game on
(37:25):
Saturday with Grandma, don't ask. It was not fun again.
We'll see what that defensive line is capable of. Can
they stop the run? I don't think so. I think
this Titans team is a big time work in progress,
and I know a lot of people are gonna be
wanting to bet against them and survivor. I think the
Broncos get the win, but I also think the Broncos
win convinsively. I'm gonna lay eight with the Broncos. I'm
(37:48):
gonna put him in a ton of teasers. I expect
Sean Payton to run back that double digit win season
this season. Give me the Broncos minus the eight. Late
to the party, but not too late yet. Marco VR
thank you guys always for your contributions here on bet
on It, the NFL edition, of course, the college football edition,
(38:12):
and if you guys missed the college football edition, you
guys can go right here and absolutely watch that thirty
seven thousand if you guys watched it last weekend and
Marco and br had a great weekend, me not so much.
We're gonna try to run it back down, of course,
if you guys are missing TNA, Ralph Michaels now has
his own standalone segment here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
(38:34):
We're gonna have stock Watch with Teddy Covers up there,
as well as the Prop Shop with Andy Lang. So
your full show is still here, it's just a little
bit more segmented. We wanted to bring back the old
school VR and Marco's put up that recap graphic for
everybody who scrolled to the end. The least you guys
can do is give us that thumbs up and of
(38:55):
course hit that subscribe button so you never miss another
episode of bet On It.
The Super Bowl felt like an eternity ago, but now
Week one is back. This is bad on it. Let's
get into the Week one NFL slate. Kelly Stewart here
(00:26):
with Marco DiAngelo and Yanni the Greek guys. We've been
anticipating this moment for a really long time. These lines
have been out basically since May. I feel like we
have talked about the NFL at nauseum here at wager
talk dot com, whether it's divisional previews, super Bowl previews,
regular season win totals. I'm ready for the season to
(00:48):
get started, but I'm already sweating my survivor pick. We're
gonna get into some of those here in just a
little bit, but first we're gonna geto those primetime games.
Thursday Night football. Dallas is an eight point under dog
at Philadelphia forty seven and a half. Here is the
total VR break down this NFC East rivalry.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Well, listen, gun to my head. You're going to force
me to take the points here with the Dallas Cowboy,
especially now that it's up over a touchdown. This was
at six and a half at one point, got the seven,
seven and a half, now eight, You could even find
eight and a half and who knows where it will
end once the teasers start rolling in, and the books
have to protect themselves against the teaser. So the possibility
(01:29):
that gets up to that nine is a lot greater
than it getting back to seven, because if the betting
syndicates were going to get down on Dallas, they would
have done it already able to get eight. Eight and
a half's out there, So be cautious there. And if
you like Dallas, I think you should wait. If you
like the Eagles, you probably missed the boat because, like
(01:49):
I said, it should just continue to climb as the
teasers start rolling in. But look at the history of
this series. Last year Eagles dominated. That's a rarity. If
you look over the last ten games, I don't even
have to look flip a coin. I bet they're close
to fifty to fifty. You look over the last twenty
games between these two, don't have to look flip a coin.
(02:10):
Close to fifty to fifty. Whom away really doesn't matter.
Like they each team is probably one five or the
last ten straight up, the other team won five at
the other five. One cover five, the other covered the
other five. Like that, they just split. They play tough
games regardless of the type of season. It's just that
kind of rivalry. And I think Dallas is I don't
(02:32):
expect Dallas to have a great season. I bet to
know that they will not make the playoffs. But this
is Week one. You've had time to prepare for one
team and one team only, and you know the super
Bowl champs are who you're playing. Not only a rival,
but they're now they're defending super Bowl champs. I think
all the concern about Dallas is now defensive line. I
(02:54):
don't think that's going to be a problem. They were
loaded before that. I think they're going to give the
Eagles some pressure there because that's what the Eagles are
gonna have to do. Protect Hurts, get that running game going.
But let's not forget Barkley's coming off of two thousand
yard season, you got to expect a regression. In fact,
you got to expect the regression from the entire Eagles
(03:16):
offense that had that kind of outlier season. Just look
at the red zone efficiency. Finally talking about the red
zone efficiency, if you look at the Eagles have one
of the top five home field advantages in the NFL
going into twenty twenty five season, With that said, for Dallas,
it really doesn't matter. In fact, they did better on
(03:36):
the road last season, and that was one of their problems,
that red zone efficiency. They were thirty first in the NFL.
You got to be able to put points up on
the board when you get into the red zone. That
has to do with a lot of luck, and luck
tends to regress and progress towards the mean, like you
can't continue to get lucky or unlucky forever. And I
(03:58):
think Dallas had a lot of bad luck last year,
especially if you look at turnover margin and all of that.
But like I said, with them doing better offensively in
the red zone, book more so defensively in the red zone,
regardless of playing home or away, it's almost been the same,
something better on the road at times. I got to
take the points here again, rivalry game. I haven't gotten
(04:20):
to the window yet. They may force me if it
continues to climb, But I like the dog here, dogger
pass for me.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
All right, Viera, let's kind of talk about some of
those teasers. I know you and I break them down
on Last Call every single Sunday this year, it's gonna
be hosted by Aaron Epstein, so I can have a
day off. That being said, I'll still be watching because
I want to know the most efficient markets, as we
know in the NFL, will be Sunday morning. So you
always say wait to bet the teasers. Yeah, I do
a show on Monday. It's called Opening Line Report, and
(04:49):
I don't want to see if you agree with Teddy Covers,
he said he's not betting any Week one teasers and
there's so many available. Tell me why you don't think
anybody should or should not be betting teasers this week
and including the Philadelphia Eagles in it.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
No, I think you should. In fact, it's even better
in Week one to use teasers in the NFL because
the mean absolute error is closer, meaning the average NFL
game okay, finishes ten point two points off the point
spread on average. So even though we say that Vegas
is is so sharp, they're so on point the fact
(05:27):
that they're not trying to predict the outcome with a
point spread. This is a perfect reflection of that because
again on average, they are ten point two points off
of the point spread compared to the final score. In
Week one that drops to nine point nine okay, so
even a little less when you're using the teaser, that's
(05:50):
what you want. You want the game to fall near
the point spread. That's where it helps you. But what
you have to remember with the teaser is this. Okay,
the even money teasers are no longer available. Okay, if
you could find minus one twenty on a six point teaser,
your break even is seventy four point one percent. That's
(06:13):
what your break even is. Okay. If you're able to
go through the key numbers of three and seven, you
will win about seventy six percent of those bets, so
your break even is seventy four. You'll win about seventy
six so you'll have about a two percent edge over
the books. At minus one twenty, most can still even
(06:36):
get minus one twenty. Most are in betting one twenty
five's even one thirties. You can't go above one thirty.
I say, don't even go above moneth twenty five if possible,
because again you're making your edge even smaller, maybe a
one percent edge, and you're gonna have a lot of
volatility that way, which is why we've changed it up.
(06:56):
With how I do it, I like to look at
more closer to the closes the line because I want
the market to be as efishing as possible. You don't
want an inefficient market with teasers, because you're only going
to catch your teaser if the game lands near the number.
Keep that in mind. So again, going through three and six,
if you're able to lay one twenty or better, you'll
(07:16):
have about a two percent edge over the books laying
one twenty five or worse. That edge lessons because again,
you gotta win seventy four point one percent at getting
six points on the teaser. That's your break even at
minus one twenty at minus one twenty.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
All right, I appreciate that look into some of the
teasers and your opinion on Week one teasers. There's just
so many. We'll get to some more of these games
that fall with in that, but first we got to
go to Sunday night football. We've seen this one balance
all over the place. Buffalo minus one and a half
Baltimore pick them fifteen and a half is pretty much
where the total has started to subside. I know some
(07:56):
under money came in early. And here's how I have
to look at this one. All right, These two teams
have played six times since twenty eighteen. I got three
wins apiece Baltimore did have that nice home win last
year during the regular season, but guess what the Bills
got the one that mattered in the playoffs. That one
was no fun for me and my Lamar Jackson and
(08:19):
Baltimore ravens super Bowl future which would have cashed because
it was parlayed with the Florida Gators. I don't want
to talk about it. I know why the under money's
come in six one and one in the last eight
meetings between these two. Look, let's take out everything we
saw in preseason. Let's take out everything we saw last year.
Let's look at these two teams on Sunday night football.
(08:40):
I don't think there's a lot of value here. The
Bills don't lose games at home. Baltimore the rubber is
meeting the road. I had the pleasure of recording the
press yesterday and he said, Lamar Jackson is two in
consistent and I said, wait what, we are not blaming
Lamar for that playoff loss last year. I do think
(09:01):
that betting against Josh Allen is not fun. I also
think betting against Lamar is not fun. I do also
think you've got to take the better defense here, and
that is Baltimore, So give me the pick them, give
me the plus one and a half, of course, because
you should be shopping around on your odds logic screen.
Marco DiAngelo, I'm kicking it to you. I know that
(09:22):
wasn't a very definitive Ravens at a pick them because
I'm not going to get there with my hard earned money.
But something for our audience to look at, Will you
beginning to the window on Monday Night football with your
hard earned money? Vikings minus one and a half Chicago
forty three and a half is the total?
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Well, Kelly, you look at this one in We've seen
the line move in this one as well. Chicago opened
the favorite in this one minus one and a half,
and we've seen it do a complete flip to the
Vikings being one and a half point favorite, And to
be honest with you, they should have been the favorite
from the start. They are fundamentally the better team. While
(09:59):
a public opinion and sees it differently, most people expect
the Bears to be improved this year, especially with the
hiring of the Detroit Lion offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as
the head coach. We all know how bad the head
coaching has been in Chicago the last few years, so
definitely an upgrade there. Also, it's an automatic public opinion
(10:23):
that a rookie quarterback is going to have a better
year in his second year. That's just, you know, the
way you think of progression. But don't be sold on that.
A couple of reasons we've seen quarterbacks in the past.
The one that comes to mind most recently is CJ.
Stroud had a fantastic rookie season and then took a
(10:45):
little bit of a step backwards in the year two.
We're going to see that the question be presented in
Washington this year. We saw Daniels have a great rookie season.
Will he duplicate that this year year. Here's the thing
when a quarterback of rookies in there, you don't know
what their tendencies are. You don't know what their strengths
(11:06):
and weaknesses are. Yet you've got gain film from college. Okay,
you don't know properly how to gain plan them when
you've had a full year of them in the NFL.
Defensive coordinators are going to prepare differently now to make
matters worse. But it could be plus as well for Chicago.
Depends which way you look at it. Caleb Williams is
(11:29):
going to have to learn a new offense this year, Okay,
And I go back to Cleveland and Baker Mayfield and
remember how many offensive coordinators and head coaches he went
through early on his career, and I think it really
hurt him because he had no consistency early on. We've
seen he's played much better since he's had stability at Tampa.
(11:50):
Caleb Williams, this could be a breakout season for him
under Ben Johnson, but there's gonna be a learning curve. Okay.
They didn't get a lot of playing time in pre season,
and again, what do you learn in preseason going against
vanilla defenses. He is going against one of the best
defenses in the NFL. And the question mark with Minnesota
(12:11):
this year is JJ McCarthy. What's he going to be
at quarterback? We know what the Vikings did last year.
Sam Donald had a career year, led them to the
playoffs and it fell apart in the end there, but
they had a fantastic season. If you remember, before Sam
Donald took over, the only reason he took over was
(12:32):
JJ McCarthy got hurt in preseason. This was supposed to
be McCarthy's team. So that great success last year that
Minnesota had, was it Donald or was it the system.
I'm gonna go with the system and Kevin O'Connell. I
think he's a great offensive mind, and I think Minnesota
is going to be just fine. I think heading into
(12:53):
week one, going on the road on a Monday night
football's not ideal. The crowd will be crazy night home
field slight home dog. But I've got the better team,
I think roster wise with Minnesota, I think they are
better set to start the season. It's just gonna be
(13:13):
plug and play with McCarthy and I'm gonna go with
the better defense here and we're gonna take Minnesota. Should
be a fun game on Monday night football. Don't expect
to shootout, but I'm gonna take the Vikings on Monday
night to open up the season.
Speaker 1 (13:29):
All right, Bear's another possible teaser spot there, but we're
gonna just digress and get right into the steam report.
Get those odds Logic screens, open oddslogic dot com, backslash
ace Ace to get yourself a one week free trial VR.
That train is running down the tracks and I need
(13:50):
to know these lines have been out for months. But
let's hear who's getting steamed here leading up to NFL
Week one.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Yeah, and I'm gonna focus in on the moves that
got multiple groups on top of them, and where I
haven't seen resistance. Start off Friday, Kansas City and the
Chargers over forty four over forty five is the public
that's also betting that game over that'll probably keep pushing
that number. Go on to Sunday four fifty eight, Indianapolis
(14:21):
Colts at a pick them for sixty, Jacksonville minus two
and a half and three for sixty four, Cleveland plus
the six and over forty five for six seven, Arizona
for minus four and a half up to minus six,
Detroit and green Bay under forty nine and a half,
forty nine and under forty eight, Houston and the Rams
(14:44):
under forty six four seventy nine, Baltimore plus two and
the under fifty three and fifty two, and finally Minnesota
from plus one to minus one. So those are some
of the NFL moves, But keep your eye on odds
lit heading into the weekend, you'll start to see a
lot of movement. That's when they'll start taking advantage of
(15:08):
a lot of the first quarter lines, first half lines
player props, especially as the public gets to the window
and starts forcing a lot of line moves, because again,
even though the public doesn't get respect, they bet a
lot of money when it comes to the NFL, and
money moves lines. When the books have a ton of risk,
(15:28):
they're going to try to entice action the other way.
They got to write some tickets on the other side,
and that's where you'll see a lot of bettings that
gets getting involved on game day. So best of luck,
whether you follow or a fade, hope you do some damage
with the info.
Speaker 1 (15:40):
All right, let's get into those barking dogs, my favorite
segment of course of each show, because I want to
know who's running out right. I'm addicted to that plus money.
There's been a lot of overlap. I'll say, I do
a script for us on Mondays, Marco's like, damn, and
I wanted this game. And then I go to type
it in in VRS already on it, and I try
(16:02):
to give you guys a lot of a parody here, right,
instead of overlapping. But this was a game that I
wanted as well. Marco, you like the New York Giants,
tell me why maybe the Commanders are not a good
survivor pick this week.
Speaker 3 (16:19):
All right, Kelly, Well, there's plenty of excitement in Washington.
I alluded to that in the last segment. You've got
a rookie quarterback that had a sensational season, they made
the run to the playoffs, they won a playoff game,
so obviously expectations are high in Washington. Well, you know what,
when expectations are high, that also means the line's going
(16:43):
to be inflated. And we look at this one. Washington
comes in here as a six point favorite. Last year
when they played in the first meeting in Washington, the
Commanders were just a one point favorite. Now, Washington did
win both me last year against the Giants, but they
only won them by three and five points. Are you
(17:04):
going to tell me, really that there's that much of
a difference, uh this year from last year to this
year and these two teams that there's justifies a five
point move from what the line was last year. Washington, Yeah,
on paper, they should be better, and you would expect
Daniels to have a progression this year, but as we said,
(17:26):
that's not always the case. And the Giants, a division rival,
that knows this team well. And I've got to look
at this giant roster from this year to last year.
You know, last year they were coping with life without Barkley. Uh,
this is year two. I think they're gonna be better.
You know, the quarterback situation, whether you like it or not,
(17:49):
Russell Wilson is going to be a little more have
stability for them. I think they stay in this game
right to the end. And Washington is a young team
that's just learning how to win again. I can't lay
six points with them in this one. In the home opener,
I'm gonna go ahead take the Giants. I think this
game goes right down to the wire fueld goal either way.
(18:12):
Let's go ahead and make Kelly happy and make it
the Giants twenty three to twenty pulling out the upset.
And just you know, remember the last couple of years,
there's been one of those favorites that's been a home
favorite that on paper has not looked like they could
lose out right. Remember last year when the Cincinnati Bengals
(18:33):
took out I think about half of the survivor pool
here in town. Who's gonna be that monstrosity this year?
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Yeah, I know, trust me. I've looked at Eagles on
Thursday night. I've looked at the Commanders. I don't want
to play the divisional game. We're gonna get doing the
best bat segment because it worked for me last year,
at least from a survivor standpoint. We are the Jets.
If you guys look on the odds logics and you
can maybe find yourself a three VR. Let's talk about
(19:04):
the Jets why you like them on the money line
and the difference between that two and a half and
of course that three j.
Speaker 2 (19:12):
E Ts Jets, Jets, Jets baby. Yeah again the NFL three.
They're charging so much now, like you can't even get
it for less than minus one thirty in most spots
taking off the two and a half, like to go
from minus from plus two and a half to plus three.
Most are now charging over that one thirty price. And
(19:34):
if that's what you're paying, don't do it. You're not
getting a better number. You're paying for it, and based
on the money line that you're being charged, you're overpaying.
So I know it makes you feel a little better
because three being such a key number and you thinking
if the game lands three at least, I'll push the
probability of it happening isn't high enough based on the
(19:58):
vig they're charging for that half a point, So unless
you're getting it below the minus one thirty price, I
would not be buying half a points on and off
of the three. Again, there was a long time you
were able to take advantage of that before it was
so widespread of how key of a number three is
(20:19):
and you were able to buy half a pointed a discount.
That is no longer the case here with the Jets.
We did take the three. I released that through my
subscribers as a premium play. I like it on the
money line as well. It's almost a fade of Pittsburgh
as much as a bet on the Jets. What's Pittsburgh
gonna do? I mean, they're a huge transformations taking place
(20:43):
in Pittsburgh, and it needed to because the way they
just collapsed down the stretch last year. You gotta remember,
this team got so lucky and they were still bad,
meaning only one team did better than them in turnover ratio,
and that was the Buffalo Bills. Otherwise, Pittsburgh was number
two with the number three team like four, turnovers were
(21:05):
less than Pittsburgh got. So Pittsburgh got very lucky and
they still couldn't win and cover football games. That doesn't
bode well coming into the twenty twenty five season. Now
all the hype around Rogers, not only Rogers in Pittsburgh,
but now Rogers returning to play against his old team,
(21:26):
which you know, I didn't play long for the Jets.
Too much hype around that and just not enough time
for that offense. Which I get it. He got the
names there with Metcalf and Rogers, but it's going to
take a while to see how this offense plays together cohesively.
And I just think you're being charged for that already.
(21:49):
You're being charged for potential over credentials, and that's never
a good idea, especially laying points on the road. If
they could contain JJ Watt, I think this is the
Jets game to lose. I like them here at home.
I like what I'm seeing out of their new coach,
defensive minded, defense, defense, defense, and against this Pittsburgh Steeler team,
(22:13):
that's exactly what you need to do. Give me the Jets,
take the points, sprinkle that money line. Jets start off
one and oh all.
Speaker 1 (22:21):
Right, I'm gonna take a small little doggie here myself,
because this is a tough week. We know there's gonna
be upsets. We just have to kind of sit back
and relax. But here is a game that I think
is a winnable game for the LA Chargers. Sounds so
weird not to call them San Diego all these years. Look,
Kansas City has one eight of the last ten meetings,
(22:44):
So why am I calling for them to lose this game? Well,
the last three have been decided by a total of
ten points. The Chargers have a real opportunity to win
this one on a neutral field, which we hope the
conditions are better than the last time they played in Brazil.
Patrick Mahomes basically has an all new receiving corps, plus
(23:06):
Rashie Rice is suspended. They had a turnover, a couple
turnovers on the offensive line. No Joe Sony, no DJ Humphrees.
I expect the Chargers to take advantage here of the
team with the Super Bowl hangover. We all know how
bad it is for the team that loses the Super
Bowl to come out in the next season and get
a win Week one. I get it. It's the Kansas
(23:29):
City Chiefs. You guys think that me betting against this
team is not the smartest thing I've ever done. Would
I have liked to have gotten the three and a half,
of course, But I do think that moved from three
and a half down to three over the summer tells
us exactly what we need to know. Hey, look, Andy Reid,
Patrick Mahomes, Steve Spagnolo and the Chiefs four and ten
(23:51):
against the spread in the last fourteen games. Think you're
paying a premium here once again for the Chiefs. It's
just not that necessary. Could be a twenty one twenty final,
and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see
the Chiefs win by a game winning field goal. But
give me the Chargers plus the three. Give me the
(24:13):
Chargers on the money line. All right, guys, let's get
into get your trap. The trap game of the week
can't be the sandwich unless Marco's feeding me open face sandwiches.
And it's right around lunchtime, so of course I'm hungry Marco.
Let's hear it. Who is the biggest trap on the
board this week?
Speaker 3 (24:31):
Okay, I'm just gonna make note, Kelly, you gave me
a lot of grief last year about always having a
small dog, but I had the biggest dog this week.
Speaker 1 (24:38):
Just making notice that you did, and I'm very proud
of you. Listen. I would love to say that this
team that is your trap game, This is who I
was gonna put in as my dog, by the way,
but you're gonna get them out of your trap game.
And I was like, we can't run it back to.
Speaker 3 (24:51):
Back, no problem. And Kelly, much like I did with
the college trap game in week one, what did I say?
I like to I like to listen to the noise,
hear all the noise, and then I'm gonna go against
the noise and the noise that we heard last week.
It worked out well for us with Auburn against Baylor
(25:13):
in this spot for the trap game. Now I'm gonna
do it here with going against Cincinnati. And I know
I'm high on Cincinnati coming into this season, but I'm
not high on them in this first game because all
we heard about all summer long is how they get
off the slow starts, and to take care of that,
(25:35):
they played the starters in preseason. Joe Burrow, Zach head
coaches Zach Taylor said, we're gonna play players, We're gonna
be ready. We're not having that slow start. And what
have we seen? They put up big numbers in the preseason.
We know this offense can score a lot of points.
And then what's the noise we heard about Cleveland all
(25:55):
summer long? The quarterback room. We've made so many jokes
about that quarterback room. They had four quarterbacks. You know
what do you have when you have four quarterbacks? No quarterbacks?
When Joe Flacco is your starter, you know you're in trouble. Well, okay,
all jokes aside. Joe Flacco will be the starter and
(26:17):
he can move the football. Why because he's going against
the Cincinnati Bengals defense. That is the one Achilles Heel
to the Cincinnati Bengals defense to this team this year. Yeah,
they're gonna put up crazy numbers offensively, but defensively, they're
gonna have trouble stopping teams and they're gonna have to
outscore them. So you think, well, that shouldn't be a
(26:38):
problem because Cleveland, with that quarterback that they have, they're
not gonna move the football this year. Yeah, they'll be
able to move against this defense enough to stay in
this game. And I'm gonna bring out my Golden rule.
Give me the better defense getting points. This is a
home opener, and we've got an underdog, a division rival.
(26:58):
Are you kidding me? Too much love for the Bengals here?
They should not be this type of favorite on the road.
We saw this number at six down to five and
a half. I'm taking Cleveland and don't be surprised until
they get that monkey off their back. Cincinnati with those
slow starts losing this game outright again, but I feel
(27:20):
very comfortable with Cleveland plus the five and a half.
I think it's going to come down to a field goal.
Let's go ahead and take Cleveland winning it on a
late field goal twenty three to twenty one.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
This is Joe burrow sixth season in the NFL and
he has one and four. That's his first five starts,
one and four. B buyer beware if you are going
to use the Cincinnati Bengals again any Week one of
survivor VR eure up first here because it is time
for best best. Please let everybody know what you've got
going on over at wager talk dot com and then
(27:53):
tell me why we need to be looking at the Giants.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
Plus six Sunday, NFL Week one packages up already premiums
in there, and we'll have the steam rooms Sunday leading
into kickoff. Also, NFL season packages up college football as well.
Currently sitting number one in college football. I expect the
same damage in the NFL set up nicely for a
(28:21):
good regular season, and playoffs have always been good to
us as well. So jump on board for the entire season.
That's way you get the weekly steam rooms, which will
come with all that time sensitive information that we get
player props, first quarters, all that stuff leading up the kickoff.
I don't know over towagestalk dot com. And don't overlook
the free picks page. I put free premiums every time
(28:45):
I put out a free pick. They're not just opinions.
It's a premium play off. The card best bet. I
gotta fade the Washington Redskins. Few teams are expecting the
regress like Washington. You gotta remember this is a team
that won how many fot ball games in twenty twenty three,
like four football games, and then came back and won
twelve the very next season in twenty twenty four. Historically,
(29:08):
those teams always regress. We have the flip side for
the Giants, where they won six games in twenty twenty three,
then dropped the three games in twenty twenty four. Only
one place they could go is more or less up
from there. And I like what I see on the
defensive side of the ball, and that's what you want
for your dog. If you're gonna bet a dog, you
want two things in the NFL. One you want sixty
(29:29):
minutes of effort, and you've seen against Washington this is
more or less NFC East rivalry. The history shows split,
at least recent history.
Speaker 3 (29:41):
If you look over the.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Last ten, twelve, fifteen games, you'll see close to fifty
to fifty point spread and straight up with both of
these teams. They played close games, even last year, which
was an outlier, and Washington won both they played. Both
of those games were very close, and that's what you
want from your dog. You want them to give you
sixty minutes of effort. That always leaves the back door open.
(30:04):
You know what I mean. You're down ten points, but
if a team's gonna got heart with two minutes left
and get the ball, that back door touchdowns always open,
and you want them to have the ability to win
the game out right. That's key, especially in the NFL
where we see you know, even double digit dogs can
win out right, and this is one of those dogs
that I think really can win out right because it's
(30:26):
such a big game for them in Week one that
the Giants can't allow what's happened to them in the past.
And they've been outscored in the first two the first
game of the season over the last two years sixty
eight to six, so they've they've they've played back to
blowouts in game one. I think you have a lot
of new pieces, new attitude coaching. I think you're gonna
(30:49):
get a full effort from the New York Giants. I
think you're gonna get a regression from the Washington Redskins.
You have almost the perfect storm overvalued versus undervalued. Give
me the six points with the Giants rest ashore. Washington
will be one of the most heavily teased signs on Sunday.
Be careful with that. Be careful. I sprinkled the little
(31:10):
something on the Giants money line. I think it's a
very winnable game for them. Ooh, I like to hear that.
Speaker 1 (31:16):
From a survivor perspective. I know a lot of people
will be using the Commanders on Sunday, Marco D'Angelo, it's
time for your best bet. I'm kindie, Connie, I'm kind
of curious to hear this one. Are we fading the
Green day packers noise? But before you get into it,
let's hear what you've got going on this weekend overtwagertalk
(31:36):
dot com.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Well, Kelly, we're promoting the seven day package that's available sitewide.
You can get seven days for seventy seven dollars, and
remember that includes any five percent play. Those five percent
plays sell for thirty five dollars by themselves. Good opening
week for us, last week in college football for and
oh for us. And remember last year we where the
(32:00):
number two combined college in NFL football in money one
at wager Talk. So great season last year, off to
a running start this year. Get on board and that
will include also those seven days. You'll get my baseball
plays and the WNBA plays WNBA fifty three and twenty
(32:21):
five with our selections in the WNBA, so you will
get everything. The playoffs are about to start, So seven days,
seventy seven dollars. Head over to wager Talk for this one.
We're going to take a look at Detroit and green Bay.
And you know what green Bay was getting a lot
of love during the offseason is people expect Detroit to
(32:42):
take a step backwards this year. They lost both their
offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator. Both got head coaching
jobs this year, and people expect Jordan Love, with another
year under his belt, as the starter to take that
next step forward having that experience. Well, I can't totally
(33:02):
disagree with that, But then you add what happened last
week Micah Parsons the trade from Dallas. Nobody saw this coming.
He's now a green Bay Packer and the expectations are
off the chart. Now with Green Bay, did he improve
the Packer defense by being traded there? Absolutely? But how
(33:25):
much of an impact can he possibly make him one week?
You know, they say he's going to be available, but again,
you know, you don't know the system, you don't know
playing with one another. There's gonna be growing pains at
the team, gelling to one another. People got to be
in the right positions. Will this defense be even better
(33:45):
than it was before? Yeah, but give it a couple
of weeks. If this game was played a month from now,
I probably would have a totally different opinion, But right now,
I have to look at the facts, and the facts
are Detroit has owned this series with the Packers. They've
won six of the life seven. Last year when they
played here, green Bay was a two and a half
(34:05):
point underdog and they lost by ten. Now they're a
two and a half point favorite. Are you seriously going
to tell me that the Packers have improved five points
from last year and made up that difference of the
ten points that they lost the game from I don't
think so. Until you knock the king off his crown,
(34:27):
he's still the king, and the Lions have owned this
division the last few years. I don't see green Bay
knocking them off just yet. Like I said, give me
a month and I might have a different opinion. But
for Week one, I think Detroit is better prepared to
hit the ground running, and I'm gonna go ahead and
take Detroit plus the two and a half and yeah,
(34:51):
I'll be looking at some teasers probably on Sunday as well,
with Detroit, because even if they do lose this game,
I don't see green Bay getting separation from the Lions
with that offense. That will be a very juicy looking
teaser for me.
Speaker 1 (35:08):
Kelly, Yeah, Green Bay's getting a lot of love in
the marketplace this year. I'm not sure. Maybe, as you mentioned,
we should tune out some of that noise until we
see otherwise. Okay, guys, here's what I did last year
for my best bets. I gave them out on the
show because they were my survivor picks, and then they
subsequently didn't cover, but they didn't lose. So we're gonna
(35:30):
go with it again now just for personal this is
for my personal benefit only, all jokes aside. I saw
a tweet this morning and I went back and forth
on the Denver Broncos. As you can see, I grew
up a Denver Broncos fan. I have not been a
Denver Broncos fan since they won the Super Bowl. I
found great spots to bet on and against this team.
(35:51):
I think this is the week to bet on this team.
There have been twenty eight quarterbacks taking the number one
pick since the merger of nineteen seventy and their first start.
There are five twenty two to one straight up and
eight and twenty against the spread. Cam Ward making his
debut in Denver this weekend. We've talked about rookie quarterbacks
(36:11):
in their first start, especially on the road. Yeah, I know,
this Titans team went two and fifteen against the spread
the season, so we should be looking to see that reverse.
Maybe they also finished the season in minus sixteen turnover margin.
I pretty much wrote that team off Week one after
somehow losing that game to Chicago. Different quarterback, different scenario,
(36:38):
probably the same defense. Maybe they can take a step
forward this year. We'll see Broncos head coach Sean Payton
in his third year. Bo Nicks great passing attack, but man,
that running game was very frustrating. The Broncos finished in
the bottom half of the league in their rushing metrics.
So what they do. They brought in former charger JK.
Dobbins and they drafted rookie RJ.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Harvey.
Speaker 1 (37:01):
I expect the Broncos to run the ball here. I
expect them to open up that passing game for bow Nicks,
and I expect that Tennessee defense to get exploited once again.
We'll see cam Ward can't pull out some of that
magic there that he had in Miami last season, where
they somehow won every single game, well at least the
first nine. I actually even rewatched that col game on
(37:25):
Saturday with Grandma, don't ask. It was not fun again.
We'll see what that defensive line is capable of. Can
they stop the run? I don't think so. I think
this Titans team is a big time work in progress,
and I know a lot of people are gonna be
wanting to bet against them and survivor. I think the
Broncos get the win, but I also think the Broncos
win convinsively. I'm gonna lay eight with the Broncos. I'm
(37:48):
gonna put him in a ton of teasers. I expect
Sean Payton to run back that double digit win season
this season. Give me the Broncos minus the eight. Late
to the party, but not too late yet. Marco VR
thank you guys always for your contributions here on bet
on It, the NFL edition, of course, the college football edition,
(38:12):
and if you guys missed the college football edition, you
guys can go right here and absolutely watch that thirty
seven thousand if you guys watched it last weekend and
Marco and br had a great weekend, me not so much.
We're gonna try to run it back down, of course,
if you guys are missing TNA, Ralph Michaels now has
his own standalone segment here on the wager Talk YouTube channel.
(38:34):
We're gonna have stock Watch with Teddy Covers up there,
as well as the Prop Shop with Andy Lang. So
your full show is still here, it's just a little
bit more segmented. We wanted to bring back the old
school VR and Marco's put up that recap graphic for
everybody who scrolled to the end. The least you guys
can do is give us that thumbs up and of
(38:55):
course hit that subscribe button so you never miss another
episode of bet On It.
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