April 2, 2025 • 40 mins
In this special March Madness Final Four themed edition of Bet On It, Kelly Stewart, Joe Raineri, Marco D'Angelo, Teddy Covers, Gianni the Greek, Ralph Michaels and Andy Lang gather to give picks and predictions surrounding the Final Four round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament!
Introduction 00:00
Florida vs Auburn 00:28
Final Four Betting Steam Report with Gianni 11:33
Houston vs Duke 18:55
Final Four Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 30:52
Final Four Props to Play with Andy Lang 36:08
Introduction 00:00
Florida vs Auburn 00:28
Final Four Betting Steam Report with Gianni 11:33
Houston vs Duke 18:55
Final Four Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 30:52
Final Four Props to Play with Andy Lang 36:08
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to bet on It. It's time to discuss the
final four and this is our final show of the
well year. If you will, We'll be back for a
new season this fall. College football, NFL, Barking Dogs.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
And all of the other good stuff.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Some TNA of course for today's show, some props for
Mandy Lang and VR is going to join us give
us a mini Steam report. But first let's bring in
Joe Teddy and Marco Florida ooh, taken on Auburn SEC
Central here on that side of the bracket. Florida's a
two and a half point favorite to the Auburn Tigers
(00:39):
one sixty and a half. Marco, and if you remember,
Florida went in to Auburn earlier in the season, they've
only played each other once and won. I believe they
were maybe a nine and a half point underdog, maybe
even a double digit underdog in that one. But they
had an absolutely perfect game plan against the Tigers. Do
you think they can replicate it again on Saturday?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, Kelly, Actually that game, the line closed it plus
eleven for Florida and they did take it to Auburn
in that one. You know, these two teams, you know
they're not the same teams right now. They've been two
of the best teams all year. But you've got to
say Florida is playing their best ball of the year
down the stretch in the SEC and when they played
(01:25):
them the first time, that's what started this winning streak,
this winning run for Florida. That was the second game
into that long stretch where Florida went on a role.
I'm looking at this one and you know, usually, Kelly,
I'm gonna back that a bit. I always tell you
I like to take better defense getting points. And if
(01:47):
you look at Auburn, in three of their last four games,
they've held the opponents to thirty seven percent or less shooting.
But I'll tell you what Florida's shown me some grit,
winning two of their tournament games in dramatic They knocked
off the back to back defending champs Yukon in the
second round. That was a dogfight. They got the win
(02:08):
seventy seven seventy five. What do I always say, you know,
in the tournaments, I love to take teams that are
coming off those narrow wins. And what did they do well?
The next game? They blew out I believe it was Maryland.
Then you look at the last game, they were dead
in the water, and I know you had to be
(02:29):
sweating a little bit with that future bet you have
on Florida, and they were able to come back get
the win against Texas Tech. Did Texas Tech run out
of gas? Maybe they had a tough game to night
in their previous game when they had the miraculous comeback
against Arkansas, it was just the opposite. You know, they
came from the grave against Arkansas and then they blew
(02:52):
the game against Florida. But you got to get Florida credit.
They didn't panic, they found a way to win, and
I'm gonna ride that momentum with Alburn's had, you know,
pretty much an easy time of it. They haven't been
tested in this one. I know they only beat Michigan
State by six, but that was probably one of the
(03:12):
least concerning six point wins against Michigan State because they
had a big lead early. That game was never really
in doubt for Auburn. They were on cruise control. I
think Florida's got more weapons, more balanced. I know Alburn's
got one of the best players in the country that's
having a great tournament. He's a little bit banged up Broom,
(03:32):
but he'll be fine for Saturday. I still like the
Florida team. I'm gonna ride the Gators on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
I love to hear that from me, Marco.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
And before we get to Joe Ranieri, I'd love for
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(04:14):
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Speaker 1 (04:57):
All right, Joe Ranieri, I am really hopeful with this
Florida Gator team. You told me don't hedge, and in fairness,
we probably should have taken the points with Tech and
definitely the points with the Yukon.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But the Maryland game, it is what it is.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
I know we're gonna be talking about this a lot
on the show, so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Should I be putting a little bit on Auburn plus
two and a half looking for a minuscule middle Auburn
moneyline or am.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Letting it ride? Listen?
Speaker 4 (05:25):
In fairness, I said, don't hedge with Maryland because Maryland
only hedge with a team you think can actually win
the game, and I don't think Maryland had a choice
or a chance. Rather than that game, Texas Tech was
the decision to make on whether you wanted to do it.
But quite honestly, what we've been seeing from Florida. If
it ain't broke, well, we ain't fixing it.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
In this spot.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
They've already beaten Auburn once this year. Is a ten
and a half point dog in their own building. They
are playing their best basketball bar not now. And I'll
go back to it with Florida. The depth on the
team is just scary at any given moment. It can
be the guys off the bench, it can be the
biggs we already know Walter Clayton Junior shows up when
(06:10):
it matters the most, having that kind of weakon weapon.
And listen, Johnny Broom for a forty year old, the
guy looks great. Honestly, he's only been playing nineteen years
in college basketball now, and I think it's wonderful. But
he is a little hurt, and he is kind of
the heart and soul of that team. But I don't
think he's enough here. I love, absolutely love Florida early
(06:36):
in this game, and I'll tell you why people are
gonna get faked out thinking that while Auburn had this
big lead finally against Michigan State, well, they finally met
a team that was worse in the first half than
they've been over this last two months of the season. Here,
keep in mind that Michigan State four and thirteen against
(06:57):
the number in the first half there last seventeen games.
Do you know what Auburn is in their last eight?
They've covered one first half in their last eight eight games.
And who was that against the team that was worse
than them Michigan State. They are four and eleven in
the first half in their last fifteen games. This is
going back since the beginning of February. They start slow,
(07:21):
and I agree with Marco coming off of that Texas
Tech game, I think Florida comes out does exactly what
they did in Maryland early. I think they're the one
to take control of this game in the first half.
I'm back in Florida early. I'm backing them late. I
think it's just a matter of do we hedge by
the time we get to the Duke Houston win whoo.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
I will say it's a little difficult.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I really wish Houston played first. If Houston somehow upsets Duke,
I definitely would like the Florida beat ride, all right, Teddy,
it covers this Florida team.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Will they don't live and die? By Walter Clayton junior.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
I feel like he's got to score at least twenty
points if they're gonna win this game and especially cover
this game. I need your Uh, let's say this. We
got two guys on Florida. Marco says Florida. Joe basically
said Florida, but he said Florida first half.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Are we going to full sweep here? What are your
thoughts on this one?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
Probably?
Speaker 6 (08:26):
Look, the only time that we've ever had four number
one seeds reach the Final four came back in two
thousand and eight. And what did we see in this round?
In two thousand and eight we saw two blowouts in
Kansas beat North Carolina b eighteen, Memphis beat UCLA by fifteen. So,
even though these points spreads are short, history tells us
(08:46):
and again small sample size, but history tells us these
games might not be quite as competitive as the point
spreads would indicate. That being said, we are talking about
teams one, two, three, and four in Ken pop of
all the college basket, of all teams, all four of
the teams remaining top ten Ken Palm adjusted offensive efficiency,
(09:06):
all four teams remaining top ten Ken Palm adjusted defensive efficiency,
a combined record of one thirty five and sixteen, although
we take out a one on one because Florida got
a win against Auburn and Auburn got a loss. So
a combined record of one, thirty four and fifty for
these four teams against everybody but each other. Clearly we're
(09:30):
talking about a leed squad, and when we're talking about
teams at this level, my gut reaction is to take.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
Points and not lay points. All right.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
That being said, both of these guys have already made
really strong points about why Florida to me is the
right side, and even though in general I'm looking to
take points and not lay them. The first meeting was
no contest, all right. The Gators were double digit dogs.
They led by ten at half time, they led by
twenty one in the second half.
Speaker 5 (09:56):
They ended up winning by nine.
Speaker 6 (09:57):
They had five players in double digits, twenty two assists
on thirty one buckets, forty eight percent shooting, only eleven
turnovers in that game Arburn and Holme, they had fifteen
offensive rebounds. Bruman Kelly combined the forty points between him
sixteen to thirty seven shooting, but they were shut down
from the three point line, only seven three pointers and
they didn't hit free throws fourteen to twenty three compared
(10:19):
to fifteen of eighteen for Florida. So the Gators a
better free throw shooting team, the Gators a better defensive
team the three point line, the Gators a better three
point shooting team in that contest. I expect more of
the same. And we talk about betting bandwagons. That matters
a lot to me this time year and again. It's
that's something that both Marco and Joe mentioned. Flora's only
(10:39):
one in three ats in the Big Dance. I mean,
ay had the Norfolk State game. Remember they led forty
two to fourteen. It was garbage time by midway through
the first half. They only won by twenty six. Didn't
cover Yukon took them to the wire, all right, Texas
Tech took them to the wire minus nine, minus six
and a half. Two high in those ball games, Well
Auber takes to the wire. They could still cut this
(11:00):
number on Auburn to one. With the betting bandwagon right now,
they got the cover, gets creating the cover, gets Michigan
the cover against Michigan State. So in the last two
weekends you made a lot more money back in Auburn
than backing Florida. That tells me number night. Even though
I want to take dogs, two cheaps take the dog here.
I think Florida's a better team. Gators are pass for me.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
All right.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I hope that's good news. We're gonna check in with
VR right now. See what he's got for the Steam report,
Maybe something to back up this lots of love on
the panel for Florida, because there's only two games left here, VR,
what are you guys seeing. I mean, we know the
lines get so tight as the game start to dwindle down.
I'm kind of in a conundrum myself here with both
(11:43):
of these.
Speaker 7 (11:44):
Yeah, and we're not seeing much line movement at all. Again,
nobody's really in a rush to bet these games, because,
as you said, the lines are really tight. Most recreational
betters they're still trying to choose what side they're going
to be on, because remember we're looking at four number ones,
so it's not as if you know, one team is
that much better than the other, at least on paper.
(12:05):
But I think what most of the sharp betters are
going to try to do is sit back and see
if the public knocks any of these lines out. Of
whack like comes in heavy on one side and opens
up a little bit of value. The only thing we've
seen so far is under in the Duke in Houston game,
and that kind of makes sense. You're looking at the
(12:25):
two best defenses that are remaining. Florida Auburn barely top ten,
Houston Duke both top five. I mean, Duke Houston's arguably
even better than Duke on the defensive side of the basketball.
So I wasn't surprised to see them pick off any
one thirty seven's that been out there. That's why you're
looking at one thirty six right now. In that second
(12:47):
game Florida Auburn, another line move towards the under there.
I haven't seen any buy orders. It seems like they
came out a little bit too high. The first book
that went the market was at one sixty four. That
got bet immediately, probably a limit better. Two dropped at
the one sixty two and a half. That's pretty much
where everyone else opened up around one sixty two, one
sixty two and a half, and since then, again a
(13:09):
little bit under money from sharp betters. It doesn't look
like syndicate money, because syndicate money will move a lot
more significantly, and it will to get painted across the
screen when it gets hit boom like that one buy
order that sent out. This seems more like respected college
basketball betters that are coming in betting limit bets on
(13:30):
the unders, forcing the books to adjust. That's what it
looks like to me on both these totals, even though
the Houston Duke won. Again, anytime there's a thirty seven
out there, it's been picked off. In fact, some of
the Sharper books are even charging you a little juice
to go under not only one thirty six and a half,
but one thirty six. So again, definitely some sharp money
(13:52):
on both of these unders. I agree with the Houston
Duke under again, usually two great defenses. I talk about
it all the time in the NFL. It doesn't necessarily
mean under. In fact, it's usually the perfect storm for
and over because two good defenses means that the totals
probably shorter than it should be and coupled with turnovers
(14:13):
short fields, and I think it carries over to basketball
as well. That's what's made me pause a little bit.
I haven't bet either of these totals, but I do
agree with the moves. Again, they're at a new arena now,
not where they were for the Sweet sixteen and Elite eight.
This is for playing on Monday in the National Championship.
(14:35):
And again you're looking at four number ones, which on
paper are very comparable teams. So I do agree with
those unders. As far as the signs go, I find
myself in a good position. I have a future on Auburn.
They were my pick before the tournament started, and then
on Sunday, I liked Houston in their Elite eight game,
but I said, let me get a little creative, and
(14:57):
I sent out a two percent play on Houston on Sunday,
and then a two percent play on Houston plus seven
to fifty because I said, if they win on Sunday,
there's no way they should be plus seven to fifty
to win the National Championship. I know how good Duke is,
but defensively, Houston's the only team that is actually better
than them. And as good as Duke is offensively top five,
(15:18):
Houston's a top ten offense as well. So I kind
of like where I'm sitting there need in Houston, need
in Auburn. I don't think we're going to see both
favorites get in there again, they're very close. When you
look at Florida Auburn offensively, you're looking at a number
one verse number two defensive side of the ball. You're
looking both in the top ten, and I think that's
(15:40):
why that line is a lot shorter than the Duke
Houston line. Where it's on the offensive side of the ball,
that Duke will have the advantage over Houston. Again, Houston
top ten barely offensively, but Duke, without a doubt is
top five. And I think that coupled with the recency
bias of how good Duke look. Again, they shut down
(16:02):
on Alabama offense that nobody was able to shut down.
What they did carried over, I think, and affected this
point spread a little bit more, at least than that
Houston game. They kept Alabama to sixty five points and
the total was one seventy five, and yet they continue
to put up eighty plus in every single tournament game.
(16:25):
So this is a defense offense. It's going to be
hard to stop. But if anyone can stop them, I
think it's going to be Houston. I like the five
and a half. I think there's some value there. I
think there's some value on the money line as well.
That's why I haven't looked a hedge yet. I think
Auburn Florida that one is a coin flip. I really,
on paper, it's a coin flip again, Number one verse
number two offensively barely both top ten defensively. I think
(16:48):
you're looking at a matchup that is a coin flip.
They played earlier in the season. They played in February.
It was that Auburn Florida was catching double digit points
in that game and they won the game outright, so
there is some revenge on the Auburn side. They've scored
one hundred and seventy one points in that game, so
(17:09):
it shows you the adjustment that's been made. But if
you'll dig into that game, what you'll notice is that
Florida hit eighty three percent from the three point from
the free throws, they shot forty three pointers forty eight
percent from the field, like Florida was able to score,
where Auburn had a lot of problems. They couldn't shoot
(17:31):
from the foul line. They missed eight or nine free throws.
They were seven for twenty two from the three point line.
So it was a bad game for Auburn, great game
for Florida. Again, I'm a little biased because I need
both dogs, at least one of them to get into
the National Championship for me to make a decision. But
I don't think they're bad bets at all. Favorites have
been getting the money, but now they were looking at
(17:52):
four number ones and some coin flip games. I think
the only way you could look at it is grab
the points, sprinkle a little money line, and all you
have to do is split. Let's not forget if you're
getting plus money. All you need is one of those
teams to beat the favorite, and you're gonna make money
if you bet them on the money line. So I
think that's a good approach. I don't think we're gonna
(18:13):
see Florida Duke final. I know that's what most want
to see, but I don't think that's common.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Well, I'm a little biased.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
I want to see a Florida Houston final so I
can National Championship game it one more time in Calvinar.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
There we'll see.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
I have yet to decide what I'm gonna do here
as of Wednesday at one thirty Eastern VR, but kind
of weighing my options.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
You and I will discuss it Saturday morning.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Last call, but we both decide how we're gonna hedge
it out or we're gonna let it ride. Dr I
always appreciate you and your insight. We'll see you on Saturday. Now,
let's take it back to the guys to break down
that Houston Duke game just a little bit further. Teddy
covers I'm gonna go to you first. Houston is a
(18:59):
five point underdog to the Duke Blue Devils Saturday night.
The second game, one thirty six and a half is
going to be the total.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
And hey, I love the underdogs.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
I do, but this has not been an underdog tournament.
Can you talk me off taking the points here with Houston?
I know I have the ten to one to get
With John Murray from the Kelly and Murray Show, I
think I just have to let that probably ride. For
a lack of better words, I'm not betting Duke money
line here.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
I want Duke.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
I want Houston to win the game, obviously, and I
think that they have real opportunities to do so.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
But again, the dogs just have not been barking.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
Yeah, that's you know again, what we've seen so far,
that's all rear view mirror. Kelly, you know, what we're
going to see this weekend is we're trying to project
and just because we've seen a chalk heavy Final four
and a chalk heavy tournament does not mean that we're
going to see a chalk heavy last three games of
the college basketball season. And look Sweet sixteen matchup last
(20:01):
year between these two teams, Houston was minus four. Duke
won fifty four to fifty one. Both team shot forty
one percent from the floor in that ballgame, the last
four minutes of that game three to two, one empty
possession after the next, and I expect more of the
same this time around. This is an under matchup. Forget
about the side here, let's talk about the total.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
All right.
Speaker 6 (20:24):
Duke just held Alabama to sixty five. Alabama to sixty five.
The game stayed more than three touchdowns under, and again
they played. They had a defensive game plan for the
Crimson Tide that BYU didn't or we're gonna switch, and
it worked. And that's what we would expect from Duke
in the situation. And of course, we talk about this
(20:47):
elite defensive team and I know how good their offense is,
but Houston's allowed sixty five or more only twice since
February first, their last seventeen games since that overtime lost
to Texas Tech on February first, So seventeen games allowed
sixty five plus twice Colorado with the Big twelve Attorney
opener not exactly max intense, and the Zags in round two,
and I'll tell you if you watch that game, you
(21:08):
know Gonzaga played a near perfect contest. Kelvin Sampson team
told pace against everyone. All Right, we're talking about truly
an elite defensive team, points allowed, the advanced metrics, and
Duke's right there with them, and especially if we talk
about Duke playing in the ACC, they haven't seen.
Speaker 5 (21:25):
A whole lot of defenses like this. You know, I'm.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
Expecting a lower scoring affair. I'm not expecting a bunch
of scramble points at the end. And I would look
first half under full game under four Duke and Houston.
Before I let you go kel, before I kick it back,
I do want to let you know about what's going
on right now. Over at wagertalk dot com, Running good
this week six and oh the last two days picked
(21:49):
up a quick eighteen point three units for the clients
on Monday and Tuesday I'm riding a seventy eight percent
NBA run over the last couple of weeks fourteen and four.
I won eighth straight in the first round of the
NBA Playoffs last year and closed out the playoffs hitting
eighty percent in the finals nine to three with my
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day in the NBA for the rest of the year.
(22:11):
What ninety five get the playoff package, get the rest
of the regular season free. And I do like the
back half or not the back half the back portion
of this NBA season.
Speaker 5 (22:21):
The betting markets kind of fall asleep. We make money,
We pay attention back to you.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Kill love that WT dot buzz backslash TC to get
to Teddy's page faster Joe Vernieri Teddy likes the under
there we mentioned VR had said, Hey, listen, this is
where the sharp money is going to come in.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Do you agree with him there on the total or
do you.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Think I'm crazy for riding off Houston as an underdog.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (22:49):
No, Look, I agree with him wholeheartedly here. I think
the under for sure has to be in consideration. I'd
even dare say maybe even in the first Also not
a bad look here. This is a fascinating matchup to
me Kel because it's perception versus reality. Here, the perception
(23:10):
of the Houston Cougars is that it is a Samson
coach team that is just absolutely elite defensively, and that's true.
Speaker 5 (23:19):
It is.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
It is, as far as I'm concerned, in a lot
of metrics here the number one rated defense in the country.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Great.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
They also played in one of the toughest conferences in
the country here, Duke played in one of the easiest
conferences of the year and wrapped up a whole lot
of metrics that, yes, while it looks great along the
way and the height that they've gotten is tremendous. Duke
(23:47):
has only played three games this year against teams rated
in the top twenty in defensive raiding cal three games.
They lost. Two of those three games. They lost to
Kansas and they lost the Clemson and oh, by the way,
they beat Auburn, who was the third team there in
the top twenty defensive rated team and they beat them
by six. We also have seen elite offenses go up
(24:11):
against Houston. We've seen Houston well, they've handled business here.
They went up against Auburn, they went up against Alabama,
they split games against Texas Tech, so all three of
those losses Auburn, Alabama, and Tech all came by five
points or less. All three of those teams extremely elite offensively. Here,
(24:33):
the bottom line to me is that when you look
at the Duke Blue Devils, their competition along the way
has allowed them to rack up a whole lot of
stats that people are falling in love with here heading
into this game, and I think people forget while the
perception is Houston is a defensive team, helly offensively, this
(24:55):
is the number one three point shooting team in the country.
And oh, by the way, Duke hasn't faced a real
elite three point shooting team, and they're just two and
two straight up against top fifty teams that shoot the three. Well,
they lost to Kentucky and the Clemson, they beat SMU,
and they beat Virginia. All those teams are top fifty
(25:15):
in three point shooting, but none of them are in
the league of what Houston is. So to me, I
don't think we need a whole lot offensively or over
the top for Houston to win this game outright. I
think if they shoot thirty four to thirty five percent
from three, given what we know they do defensively. I
think they win this game out right. I think five
(25:35):
points cal. I don't know if it hits five and
a half because I think the public's gonna love Duke
in this one. But I'd grab the five why I
can here, I'd be all over Houston and sprinkle a
little something on the money line as well. I think
they win this game out right.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
I Marco. Marco helped me out here.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
I am like this close to putting in a Houston bat.
I'm also this close to just saying all right, John Murray,
I'm going to make the Executi decision.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
We are no longer rolling over.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
Let's take a little bit of profit on the US future.
I am like Teeter Dottering, Listen, I'm a broken woman
right now.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
We had no dogs went out right. For the last
three weeks.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
We had no dogs went out right except for Arizona State,
who did cover in the College of Wall playfaic. It
has been just tough sledding for me in this nil
and transfer portal era.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
The cream has risen to the top.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
I like Joe's point, though, and this is something that
I didn't really want to dive deep on. He's right
about the ACC outside of Clemson and a mediocre KU team.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Maybe that's enough of the push here to get me
on the Houston Cougars at least plus the points.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Well, Kelly, I'm going to be the contrarian on the
panel today because if I hear one more person talk
about the ACC and how easy it's been for Duke,
it has been easy for Duke. But people, this is
an elite team. Okay, have you watched them play? They are?
This is gonna be, to me, the best offense that
(27:11):
Houston has played. And I know Joe made a good
point about, you know, Houston such a good three point
shooting team. Well, I'm gonna say two things. First, I'm
gonna say, wasn't Alabama supposed to be a good three
point shooting team? Didn't They just put up one hundred
and thirteen points in the game before, and Duke made
them look silly. You know, I think when this is
(27:33):
all said and done, you know, people are gonna say
Duke is better than we actually thought. You know, we
smashed the ACC too much. You know, they could only
play who was in front of them. Now, Houston's done
a great job and Teddy alluded to the fifteen of
seventeen opponents that they held to sixty five points or less.
That was part of my notes, But I also had
(27:54):
the last the asterisk to that is, one of the
two teams that did score over sixty five points was
Gonzaga in that second game. Why because Gonzagua is an
elite offense. Duke's an elite offense. Duke is gonna be
able to find ways to score. They have too many weapons.
You know, everybody knows about Cooper Fly, but this team
(28:16):
has other weapons on him. The top three who are
you going to stop?
Speaker 5 (28:20):
You know?
Speaker 3 (28:20):
And then they've got other role players. I like this spot.
And as far as Houston banging down those threes, well,
Duke plays defense, like I said, And you know what,
it's a lot easier shooting those wide open threes when
you're playing with the lead. What's gonna happen when Duke
has a lead in the second half and you've got
(28:40):
to half pressure making those three point plays. And trust me,
Houston's got a soft spot in my art because I
had my biggest play of the tournament on them on
Sunday when they just steamrolled Tennessee. But Why did I
have them against Tennessee. Well, it was the perfect storm.
They were coming off one of those tight wins against
(29:01):
Purdue the game before one which some people said they
were lucky to win because they got the benefit of
the no pushoff call and then had that crazy inbounds
play to win it at the end. But I like
teams that come off those close games. And who did
they play Tennessee, who was coming off a very satisfying
(29:23):
route of Kentucky. Remember Kentucky beat them twice during the
regular season. They got the revenge in the most important game. Now,
the one asterisk that I have with Duke in this game,
and it is you know, I always say revenge is
the most overused term in sports betting, But I say
there is one that I take note of, and that
(29:44):
is you always remember who ended your season. Well, it
was Duke that ended their season last year, fifty five
fifty one in a paint dry game. And that's what
a lot of people expect this game to be this year.
Duke's offense is way better than they were allowed next year.
You know, Houston is good as well and improved, and
(30:05):
they you know, tournament tested, got some experience last year.
But when it comes to tournament experience, nobody has as
much experience as Duke over the years. How many final
fours they've reached. I'll go ahead, I'll go with Duke.
An ah last factor. When they do have the lead
late in the game and Houston has to file, Duke
(30:25):
makes their file shots, I'll go ahead. I'll lay it
with Duke. I'll be out there by myself, all right.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Enjoy your public island, Marco.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
We're gonna go see your buddy, the stat daddy, Ralph
Michaels brush off a plane from Vegas. We appreciate you
tuning in hanging out with us. Let's hear what Ralph
has got dug up for the last edition of this
year's TNA. Because in Ralph forgot his glasses in Vegas,
Jonathan for being here after taking a red eye back
(30:56):
to Florida last night. That is never a good time.
But Ralph, you kind of dug into some different numbers here.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Maybe you can give our audience some insight. Again.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
I know these lines are tight and the public has
yet to come in on necessarily a side, maybe a
little bit on some totals, But I'm really curious how
the raw data looks for both of these games.
Speaker 8 (31:18):
First to shout out to Marco and his lovely wife
Lori for hosting me. Thank you so much, Kelly. I'm
going to go through four things. I want to go
through the bar Torvik numbers since March the first, some
Final four numbers, some national championship numbers, and my best bet.
So I'm just going to run through them now. I
love Ken Palm, but I even like bar torbick Moore
(31:39):
because you can adjust the dates. You can adjust the
home and away games or away neutrals, you can adjust
conference only, and you get all the metrics for offense, defense, temple,
and all the categories. So while Vir was talking about
Duke and Houston being the number one and number two defenses,
if you look since the last week of April, Houston
(32:00):
is number nineteen in offense, number two in defense. Duke
is number two on offense and number twenty three on defense.
So while they had a great game against Alabama, Duke
is an elite three point defense and not a great
two point defense. It was the perfect matchup against the Tide.
When you look at Florida and Auburn, Florida the number
one offense in college basketball since the last week of February,
(32:24):
and the number thirty five defense, Auburn number twenty five
and number twenty two. So those are just a couple
different ways to look at it. Temple wise, the fastest
team by far Florida number forty two, Auburn one sixty six,
Duke two forty four. And we know Houston is slow
since the last week of February, they're number three twenty seven.
(32:46):
Now I'm going to talk some Final four numbers. Now,
let's remember this, guys. I only have the last eleven years,
so we're talking twenty two games. And while eleven years
seems like a big sample size, when we're only talking
about twenty two games, you can't put nearly as much
stock in as you can season to date numbers. But
let me share them with you. In the Final four
(33:06):
the last eleven years, small favorites up to four and
a half are three, five and one against the spread.
Favorites of minus five and higher eight and five against
the spread, nothing great either way. Totals in the Final
four Totals under one thirty are zero to three, but
Kelly Final four totals of one point thirty and higher
(33:29):
actually thirteen five and one over under. That is seventy
two percent. And that is surprising because while we played
in NBA arenas, the final four are actually always in
football arenas, so it easin is a different site line.
So that over under number in the final four did
surprise me. And I know the like you like knowing
this number, Kelly. Since twenty twelve, the straight up winner
(33:53):
in the Final four has gone fifteen to six and
one against the spread. So there have been six dogs
that have covered out of those twenty two games. Let's
look at the National Championship. The outright winner in the
National Championship has gone ten to one against the spread.
The only dog that has covered in the last eleven years,
(34:15):
North Carolina was plus four against Kansas back about seven
or eight years ago. They won by three, So that's
the only dog that covered the spread and did not
win the game. When you look at favorites of minus
six and higher in the National Championship, there's three and
zero smaller favorites three and five against the spread. And
(34:37):
when we look at totals totals under one forty in
the National Championship, three and one over under. If a
total is one forty or higher, the over under one
and six the only over covered by one point in
two thousand and fifteen. So just some bart metrics, some
Bartrovic metrics, some Final four numbers, national Championship numbers, and
(35:01):
for the final bet on it, I'm going to leave
you with my best bet. It's going to be Florida
team total over eighty one or over eighty one and
a half. I talked about Florida having the number one
tempo team since late April, the number one offense in
late April, the number forty two tempo team, the best
of the remaining teams. Florida started this season eleven and
(35:24):
sixteen over under. That's fifty nine point three percent to
the over to the under. Kelly, Florida has gone over
the total eleven straight times and they've covered those games
by nine point three points per game. When they're off
three straight overs, they've gone eight and oh to the over,
and Auburn seven and three over under versus up tempo teams,
(35:46):
Florida over the total currently eighty one or eighty one
and a half. And thank you everyone that tuned into
the TNA segments its entire year of bet on it.
I appreciate each and every one of.
Speaker 2 (35:58):
You being it to Ralph is the best.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
Make sure you guys are giving him a fall at
follow excuse me at cal Sports LV, so you never
miss out on any of that. Tna the Proptologist here
for one more episode of prop Shop, at least until
football season. Andy Lang, thank you for dressing up for me,
because while I was getting really annoyed at every single
(36:21):
color of hoodie that you own, you look like a
Lakers I don't know what today. So I made him
put on the doctor's outfit because he is well. Got
some medication because I'm gonna need it after seeing this one.
I hope it goes in my favor. He wants to
talk about Cooper Flag, the guy who ripped my heart
and soul out in the first half versus Arizona.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Let's hear it.
Speaker 9 (36:44):
Yeah, we're going back to Cooper Flag under seventeen and
a half points. He had the huge game, as you
well know, Kelly thirty points against Arizona, but then against
Alabama he comes up just short. He was only six
of sixteen from the field. And this Houston defense is
absolutely brutal. They only allow fifty eight point five points
per game eleven point seven points to guards eleven point
(37:05):
four points to forwards. They're just menacing. Actually, both these
teams have been playing incredible defense. But I think this
is a rock fight, an absolute slug fest. Cooper flags
shooting numbers not terribly great, uh forty seven percent from
the field goal but three pointers less than forty percent there,
and this is gonna be the best defense I think
(37:25):
he faces all year. So I expect the volume of
shooting to be there, but I expect a lot of
trouble with him making a lot of shots. Let's go
under seventeen and a half points.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Ooh, I hope that bodes well for my Houston future.
Ah Andy Lang, I'm gonna miss you and uh your
little bottle of prescriptions. I know you didn't. I know
you didn't have a handy. I knew you didn't have it, handy.
Can you give yourself a little bit.
Speaker 9 (37:47):
After at they were expired, the big spier flag expired drugs.
I wasn't I wasn't giving them out. It was a
prop that I kept for the entire football season, just
for my just for the Wednesday spot. So out with
the old one with the new I thought, I.
Speaker 1 (38:03):
Was gonna have to call like, I don't know the
FDA or somebody on you give me your little promotion.
What you got going on here for the summer sports
season and see in August.
Speaker 9 (38:15):
Yeah, we're doing what years past and it comes out
to ninety nine dollars per month. Why not, Kelly, We
always preach long term. We're up ninety units in twenty
twenty three, one hundred and twenty seven units in twenty
twenty four. We're already up sixty one units after a
six no start here in April, so we're looking to
continue that run and an incredible fourteen out of seventeen
months profitable. So that's a streak that we're really really
(38:36):
proud of. All three months in twenty twenty five profitble.
So you can take advantage of that WT dot buzz
slash al short term profits, long term profits. We've got
you covered. Good luck on your place.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
And he does a lot of well we'll call it
obscure sports. If you want to know about darts, slap wrestling, boxing,
I'm not sure what of course, golf. I'm very excited
for your master's plays, Andy, and you know all of
the sports in between prop related. He is the best
at bump sports over on TikTok, excuse me, Andy lank
(39:08):
Betts over on TikTok and Instagram at bump sports on
x make sure you guys give him follow because he
has out a ton of free information on social media
every single day.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Now.
Speaker 1 (39:16):
Normally this is where you guys would expect to see
some best bets, but because there's only two games, we
are going to just say thank you guys for hanging
out with us all season long here on bet on It,
from myself, Marco DiAngelo, Joe Vernieri, Teddy Covers, VR, Andy
Lang and.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
Of course Ralph Michaels.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
Shout out to our producer Dan Alexander Demand behind the
scenes as well. Either way, guys, we appreciate you hanging
out with us as always here on bet on It until.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
Next year aka football season.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
I think I'm gonna use a VR quote do damage,
do damage? Have a profitable final four, Go Gata as
Welcome to bet on It. It's time to discuss the
final four and this is our final show of the
well year. If you will, We'll be back for a
new season this fall. College football, NFL, Barking Dogs.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
And all of the other good stuff.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Some TNA of course for today's show, some props for
Mandy Lang and VR is going to join us give
us a mini Steam report. But first let's bring in
Joe Teddy and Marco Florida ooh, taken on Auburn SEC
Central here on that side of the bracket. Florida's a
two and a half point favorite to the Auburn Tigers
(00:39):
one sixty and a half. Marco, and if you remember,
Florida went in to Auburn earlier in the season, they've
only played each other once and won. I believe they
were maybe a nine and a half point underdog, maybe
even a double digit underdog in that one. But they
had an absolutely perfect game plan against the Tigers. Do
you think they can replicate it again on Saturday?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, Kelly, Actually that game, the line closed it plus
eleven for Florida and they did take it to Auburn
in that one. You know, these two teams, you know
they're not the same teams right now. They've been two
of the best teams all year. But you've got to
say Florida is playing their best ball of the year
down the stretch in the SEC and when they played
(01:25):
them the first time, that's what started this winning streak,
this winning run for Florida. That was the second game
into that long stretch where Florida went on a role.
I'm looking at this one and you know, usually, Kelly,
I'm gonna back that a bit. I always tell you
I like to take better defense getting points. And if
(01:47):
you look at Auburn, in three of their last four games,
they've held the opponents to thirty seven percent or less shooting.
But I'll tell you what Florida's shown me some grit,
winning two of their tournament games in dramatic They knocked
off the back to back defending champs Yukon in the
second round. That was a dogfight. They got the win
(02:08):
seventy seven seventy five. What do I always say, you know,
in the tournaments, I love to take teams that are
coming off those narrow wins. And what did they do well?
The next game? They blew out I believe it was Maryland.
Then you look at the last game, they were dead
in the water, and I know you had to be
(02:29):
sweating a little bit with that future bet you have
on Florida, and they were able to come back get
the win against Texas Tech. Did Texas Tech run out
of gas? Maybe they had a tough game to night
in their previous game when they had the miraculous comeback
against Arkansas, it was just the opposite. You know, they
came from the grave against Arkansas and then they blew
(02:52):
the game against Florida. But you got to get Florida credit.
They didn't panic, they found a way to win, and
I'm gonna ride that momentum with Alburn's had, you know,
pretty much an easy time of it. They haven't been
tested in this one. I know they only beat Michigan
State by six, but that was probably one of the
(03:12):
least concerning six point wins against Michigan State because they
had a big lead early. That game was never really
in doubt for Auburn. They were on cruise control. I
think Florida's got more weapons, more balanced. I know Alburn's
got one of the best players in the country that's
having a great tournament. He's a little bit banged up Broom,
(03:32):
but he'll be fine for Saturday. I still like the
Florida team. I'm gonna ride the Gators on Saturday.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
I love to hear that from me, Marco.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
And before we get to Joe Ranieri, I'd love for
you to tell everybody about your new promotion. One year
all excess pass over at wager Talk.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Yeah, guys, if you want all of my plays all sports,
the best way to go is all Access go long term.
You'll save yourself. Money comes out to just ninety nine
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for eleven hundred and eighty eight dollars. This gets you everything.
And right now, man, you're in my sweet spot. You're
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(04:14):
You're gonna have the Hockey playoffs starting in a couple
of weeks. Baseball underway in my favorite time of the year.
It's Triple Crown season. We got the final prep races
this weekend. You'll get all of the plays I have there.
We gave out the winner in the Florida Derby last Saturday,
so we are locked in, ready to go. You'll get
(04:34):
all of the Triple Crown races included anything I release
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saves you off of the two ninety nine per month
regular rate.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
All right, Joe Ranieri, I am really hopeful with this
Florida Gator team. You told me don't hedge, and in fairness,
we probably should have taken the points with Tech and
definitely the points with the Yukon.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
But the Maryland game, it is what it is.
Speaker 1 (05:13):
I know we're gonna be talking about this a lot
on the show, so I'll keep it short and sweet.
Should I be putting a little bit on Auburn plus
two and a half looking for a minuscule middle Auburn
moneyline or am.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Letting it ride? Listen?
Speaker 4 (05:25):
In fairness, I said, don't hedge with Maryland because Maryland
only hedge with a team you think can actually win
the game, and I don't think Maryland had a choice
or a chance. Rather than that game, Texas Tech was
the decision to make on whether you wanted to do it.
But quite honestly, what we've been seeing from Florida. If
it ain't broke, well, we ain't fixing it.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
In this spot.
Speaker 4 (05:48):
They've already beaten Auburn once this year. Is a ten
and a half point dog in their own building. They
are playing their best basketball bar not now. And I'll
go back to it with Florida. The depth on the
team is just scary at any given moment. It can
be the guys off the bench, it can be the
biggs we already know Walter Clayton Junior shows up when
(06:10):
it matters the most, having that kind of weakon weapon.
And listen, Johnny Broom for a forty year old, the
guy looks great. Honestly, he's only been playing nineteen years
in college basketball now, and I think it's wonderful. But
he is a little hurt, and he is kind of
the heart and soul of that team. But I don't
think he's enough here. I love, absolutely love Florida early
(06:36):
in this game, and I'll tell you why people are
gonna get faked out thinking that while Auburn had this
big lead finally against Michigan State, well, they finally met
a team that was worse in the first half than
they've been over this last two months of the season. Here,
keep in mind that Michigan State four and thirteen against
(06:57):
the number in the first half there last seventeen games.
Do you know what Auburn is in their last eight?
They've covered one first half in their last eight eight games.
And who was that against the team that was worse
than them Michigan State. They are four and eleven in
the first half in their last fifteen games. This is
going back since the beginning of February. They start slow,
(07:21):
and I agree with Marco coming off of that Texas
Tech game, I think Florida comes out does exactly what
they did in Maryland early. I think they're the one
to take control of this game in the first half.
I'm back in Florida early. I'm backing them late. I
think it's just a matter of do we hedge by
the time we get to the Duke Houston win whoo.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
I will say it's a little difficult.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
I really wish Houston played first. If Houston somehow upsets Duke,
I definitely would like the Florida beat ride, all right, Teddy,
it covers this Florida team.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Will they don't live and die? By Walter Clayton junior.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
I feel like he's got to score at least twenty
points if they're gonna win this game and especially cover
this game. I need your Uh, let's say this. We
got two guys on Florida. Marco says Florida. Joe basically
said Florida, but he said Florida first half.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Are we going to full sweep here? What are your
thoughts on this one?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
Probably?
Speaker 6 (08:26):
Look, the only time that we've ever had four number
one seeds reach the Final four came back in two
thousand and eight. And what did we see in this round?
In two thousand and eight we saw two blowouts in
Kansas beat North Carolina b eighteen, Memphis beat UCLA by fifteen. So,
even though these points spreads are short, history tells us
(08:46):
and again small sample size, but history tells us these
games might not be quite as competitive as the point
spreads would indicate. That being said, we are talking about
teams one, two, three, and four in Ken pop of
all the college basket, of all teams, all four of
the teams remaining top ten Ken Palm adjusted offensive efficiency,
(09:06):
all four teams remaining top ten Ken Palm adjusted defensive efficiency,
a combined record of one thirty five and sixteen, although
we take out a one on one because Florida got
a win against Auburn and Auburn got a loss. So
a combined record of one, thirty four and fifty for
these four teams against everybody but each other. Clearly we're
(09:30):
talking about a leed squad, and when we're talking about
teams at this level, my gut reaction is to take.
Speaker 5 (09:34):
Points and not lay points. All right.
Speaker 6 (09:37):
That being said, both of these guys have already made
really strong points about why Florida to me is the
right side, and even though in general I'm looking to
take points and not lay them. The first meeting was
no contest, all right. The Gators were double digit dogs.
They led by ten at half time, they led by
twenty one in the second half.
Speaker 5 (09:56):
They ended up winning by nine.
Speaker 6 (09:57):
They had five players in double digits, twenty two assists
on thirty one buckets, forty eight percent shooting, only eleven
turnovers in that game Arburn and Holme, they had fifteen
offensive rebounds. Bruman Kelly combined the forty points between him
sixteen to thirty seven shooting, but they were shut down
from the three point line, only seven three pointers and
they didn't hit free throws fourteen to twenty three compared
(10:19):
to fifteen of eighteen for Florida. So the Gators a
better free throw shooting team, the Gators a better defensive
team the three point line, the Gators a better three
point shooting team in that contest. I expect more of
the same. And we talk about betting bandwagons. That matters
a lot to me this time year and again. It's
that's something that both Marco and Joe mentioned. Flora's only
(10:39):
one in three ats in the Big Dance. I mean,
ay had the Norfolk State game. Remember they led forty
two to fourteen. It was garbage time by midway through
the first half. They only won by twenty six. Didn't
cover Yukon took them to the wire, all right, Texas
Tech took them to the wire minus nine, minus six
and a half. Two high in those ball games, Well
Auber takes to the wire. They could still cut this
(11:00):
number on Auburn to one. With the betting bandwagon right now,
they got the cover, gets creating the cover, gets Michigan
the cover against Michigan State. So in the last two
weekends you made a lot more money back in Auburn
than backing Florida. That tells me number night. Even though
I want to take dogs, two cheaps take the dog here.
I think Florida's a better team. Gators are pass for me.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
All right.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
I hope that's good news. We're gonna check in with
VR right now. See what he's got for the Steam report,
Maybe something to back up this lots of love on
the panel for Florida, because there's only two games left here, VR,
what are you guys seeing. I mean, we know the
lines get so tight as the game start to dwindle down.
I'm kind of in a conundrum myself here with both
(11:43):
of these.
Speaker 7 (11:44):
Yeah, and we're not seeing much line movement at all. Again,
nobody's really in a rush to bet these games, because,
as you said, the lines are really tight. Most recreational
betters they're still trying to choose what side they're going
to be on, because remember we're looking at four number ones,
so it's not as if you know, one team is
that much better than the other, at least on paper.
(12:05):
But I think what most of the sharp betters are
going to try to do is sit back and see
if the public knocks any of these lines out. Of
whack like comes in heavy on one side and opens
up a little bit of value. The only thing we've
seen so far is under in the Duke in Houston game,
and that kind of makes sense. You're looking at the
(12:25):
two best defenses that are remaining. Florida Auburn barely top ten,
Houston Duke both top five. I mean, Duke Houston's arguably
even better than Duke on the defensive side of the basketball.
So I wasn't surprised to see them pick off any
one thirty seven's that been out there. That's why you're
looking at one thirty six right now. In that second
(12:47):
game Florida Auburn, another line move towards the under there.
I haven't seen any buy orders. It seems like they
came out a little bit too high. The first book
that went the market was at one sixty four. That
got bet immediately, probably a limit better. Two dropped at
the one sixty two and a half. That's pretty much
where everyone else opened up around one sixty two, one
sixty two and a half, and since then, again a
(13:09):
little bit under money from sharp betters. It doesn't look
like syndicate money, because syndicate money will move a lot
more significantly, and it will to get painted across the
screen when it gets hit boom like that one buy
order that sent out. This seems more like respected college
basketball betters that are coming in betting limit bets on
(13:30):
the unders, forcing the books to adjust. That's what it
looks like to me on both these totals, even though
the Houston Duke won. Again, anytime there's a thirty seven
out there, it's been picked off. In fact, some of
the Sharper books are even charging you a little juice
to go under not only one thirty six and a half,
but one thirty six. So again, definitely some sharp money
(13:52):
on both of these unders. I agree with the Houston
Duke under again, usually two great defenses. I talk about
it all the time in the NFL. It doesn't necessarily
mean under. In fact, it's usually the perfect storm for
and over because two good defenses means that the totals
probably shorter than it should be and coupled with turnovers
(14:13):
short fields, and I think it carries over to basketball
as well. That's what's made me pause a little bit.
I haven't bet either of these totals, but I do
agree with the moves. Again, they're at a new arena now,
not where they were for the Sweet sixteen and Elite eight.
This is for playing on Monday in the National Championship.
(14:35):
And again you're looking at four number ones, which on
paper are very comparable teams. So I do agree with
those unders. As far as the signs go, I find
myself in a good position. I have a future on Auburn.
They were my pick before the tournament started, and then
on Sunday, I liked Houston in their Elite eight game,
but I said, let me get a little creative, and
(14:57):
I sent out a two percent play on Houston on Sunday,
and then a two percent play on Houston plus seven
to fifty because I said, if they win on Sunday,
there's no way they should be plus seven to fifty
to win the National Championship. I know how good Duke is,
but defensively, Houston's the only team that is actually better
than them. And as good as Duke is offensively top five,
(15:18):
Houston's a top ten offense as well. So I kind
of like where I'm sitting there need in Houston, need
in Auburn. I don't think we're going to see both
favorites get in there again, they're very close. When you
look at Florida Auburn offensively, you're looking at a number
one verse number two defensive side of the ball. You're
looking both in the top ten, and I think that's
(15:40):
why that line is a lot shorter than the Duke
Houston line. Where it's on the offensive side of the ball,
that Duke will have the advantage over Houston. Again, Houston
top ten barely offensively, but Duke, without a doubt is
top five. And I think that coupled with the recency
bias of how good Duke look. Again, they shut down
(16:02):
on Alabama offense that nobody was able to shut down.
What they did carried over, I think, and affected this
point spread a little bit more, at least than that
Houston game. They kept Alabama to sixty five points and
the total was one seventy five, and yet they continue
to put up eighty plus in every single tournament game.
(16:25):
So this is a defense offense. It's going to be
hard to stop. But if anyone can stop them, I
think it's going to be Houston. I like the five
and a half. I think there's some value there. I
think there's some value on the money line as well.
That's why I haven't looked a hedge yet. I think
Auburn Florida that one is a coin flip. I really,
on paper, it's a coin flip again, Number one verse
number two offensively barely both top ten defensively. I think
(16:48):
you're looking at a matchup that is a coin flip.
They played earlier in the season. They played in February.
It was that Auburn Florida was catching double digit points
in that game and they won the game outright, so
there is some revenge on the Auburn side. They've scored
one hundred and seventy one points in that game, so
(17:09):
it shows you the adjustment that's been made. But if
you'll dig into that game, what you'll notice is that
Florida hit eighty three percent from the three point from
the free throws, they shot forty three pointers forty eight
percent from the field, like Florida was able to score,
where Auburn had a lot of problems. They couldn't shoot
(17:31):
from the foul line. They missed eight or nine free throws.
They were seven for twenty two from the three point line.
So it was a bad game for Auburn, great game
for Florida. Again, I'm a little biased because I need
both dogs, at least one of them to get into
the National Championship for me to make a decision. But
I don't think they're bad bets at all. Favorites have
been getting the money, but now they were looking at
(17:52):
four number ones and some coin flip games. I think
the only way you could look at it is grab
the points, sprinkle a little money line, and all you
have to do is split. Let's not forget if you're
getting plus money. All you need is one of those
teams to beat the favorite, and you're gonna make money
if you bet them on the money line. So I
think that's a good approach. I don't think we're gonna
(18:13):
see Florida Duke final. I know that's what most want
to see, but I don't think that's common.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Well, I'm a little biased.
Speaker 1 (18:19):
I want to see a Florida Houston final so I
can National Championship game it one more time in Calvinar.
Speaker 2 (18:26):
There we'll see.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
I have yet to decide what I'm gonna do here
as of Wednesday at one thirty Eastern VR, but kind
of weighing my options.
Speaker 2 (18:36):
You and I will discuss it Saturday morning.
Speaker 1 (18:38):
Last call, but we both decide how we're gonna hedge
it out or we're gonna let it ride. Dr I
always appreciate you and your insight. We'll see you on Saturday. Now,
let's take it back to the guys to break down
that Houston Duke game just a little bit further. Teddy
covers I'm gonna go to you first. Houston is a
(18:59):
five point underdog to the Duke Blue Devils Saturday night.
The second game, one thirty six and a half is
going to be the total.
Speaker 2 (19:06):
And hey, I love the underdogs.
Speaker 1 (19:09):
I do, but this has not been an underdog tournament.
Can you talk me off taking the points here with Houston?
I know I have the ten to one to get
With John Murray from the Kelly and Murray Show, I
think I just have to let that probably ride. For
a lack of better words, I'm not betting Duke money
line here.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
I want Duke.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
I want Houston to win the game, obviously, and I
think that they have real opportunities to do so.
Speaker 2 (19:33):
But again, the dogs just have not been barking.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
Yeah, that's you know again, what we've seen so far,
that's all rear view mirror. Kelly, you know, what we're
going to see this weekend is we're trying to project
and just because we've seen a chalk heavy Final four
and a chalk heavy tournament does not mean that we're
going to see a chalk heavy last three games of
the college basketball season. And look Sweet sixteen matchup last
(20:01):
year between these two teams, Houston was minus four. Duke
won fifty four to fifty one. Both team shot forty
one percent from the floor in that ballgame, the last
four minutes of that game three to two, one empty
possession after the next, and I expect more of the
same this time around. This is an under matchup. Forget
about the side here, let's talk about the total.
Speaker 5 (20:23):
All right.
Speaker 6 (20:24):
Duke just held Alabama to sixty five. Alabama to sixty five.
The game stayed more than three touchdowns under, and again
they played. They had a defensive game plan for the
Crimson Tide that BYU didn't or we're gonna switch, and
it worked. And that's what we would expect from Duke
in the situation. And of course, we talk about this
(20:47):
elite defensive team and I know how good their offense is,
but Houston's allowed sixty five or more only twice since
February first, their last seventeen games since that overtime lost
to Texas Tech on February first, So seventeen games allowed
sixty five plus twice Colorado with the Big twelve Attorney
opener not exactly max intense, and the Zags in round two,
and I'll tell you if you watch that game, you
(21:08):
know Gonzaga played a near perfect contest. Kelvin Sampson team
told pace against everyone. All Right, we're talking about truly
an elite defensive team, points allowed, the advanced metrics, and
Duke's right there with them, and especially if we talk
about Duke playing in the ACC, they haven't seen.
Speaker 5 (21:25):
A whole lot of defenses like this. You know, I'm.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
Expecting a lower scoring affair. I'm not expecting a bunch
of scramble points at the end. And I would look
first half under full game under four Duke and Houston.
Before I let you go kel, before I kick it back,
I do want to let you know about what's going
on right now. Over at wagertalk dot com, Running good
this week six and oh the last two days picked
(21:49):
up a quick eighteen point three units for the clients
on Monday and Tuesday I'm riding a seventy eight percent
NBA run over the last couple of weeks fourteen and four.
I won eighth straight in the first round of the
NBA Playoffs last year and closed out the playoffs hitting
eighty percent in the finals nine to three with my
last dozen. Right now, you can get every play every
day in the NBA for the rest of the year.
(22:11):
What ninety five get the playoff package, get the rest
of the regular season free. And I do like the
back half or not the back half the back portion
of this NBA season.
Speaker 5 (22:21):
The betting markets kind of fall asleep. We make money,
We pay attention back to you.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Kill love that WT dot buzz backslash TC to get
to Teddy's page faster Joe Vernieri Teddy likes the under
there we mentioned VR had said, Hey, listen, this is
where the sharp money is going to come in.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Do you agree with him there on the total or
do you.
Speaker 1 (22:45):
Think I'm crazy for riding off Houston as an underdog.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (22:49):
No, Look, I agree with him wholeheartedly here. I think
the under for sure has to be in consideration. I'd
even dare say maybe even in the first Also not
a bad look here. This is a fascinating matchup to
me Kel because it's perception versus reality. Here, the perception
(23:10):
of the Houston Cougars is that it is a Samson
coach team that is just absolutely elite defensively, and that's true.
Speaker 5 (23:19):
It is.
Speaker 4 (23:20):
It is, as far as I'm concerned, in a lot
of metrics here the number one rated defense in the country.
Speaker 2 (23:26):
Great.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
They also played in one of the toughest conferences in
the country here, Duke played in one of the easiest
conferences of the year and wrapped up a whole lot
of metrics that, yes, while it looks great along the
way and the height that they've gotten is tremendous. Duke
(23:47):
has only played three games this year against teams rated
in the top twenty in defensive raiding cal three games.
They lost. Two of those three games. They lost to
Kansas and they lost the Clemson and oh, by the way,
they beat Auburn, who was the third team there in
the top twenty defensive rated team and they beat them
by six. We also have seen elite offenses go up
(24:11):
against Houston. We've seen Houston well, they've handled business here.
They went up against Auburn, they went up against Alabama,
they split games against Texas Tech, so all three of
those losses Auburn, Alabama, and Tech all came by five
points or less. All three of those teams extremely elite offensively. Here,
(24:33):
the bottom line to me is that when you look
at the Duke Blue Devils, their competition along the way
has allowed them to rack up a whole lot of
stats that people are falling in love with here heading
into this game, and I think people forget while the
perception is Houston is a defensive team, helly offensively, this
(24:55):
is the number one three point shooting team in the country.
And oh, by the way, Duke hasn't faced a real
elite three point shooting team, and they're just two and
two straight up against top fifty teams that shoot the three. Well,
they lost to Kentucky and the Clemson, they beat SMU,
and they beat Virginia. All those teams are top fifty
(25:15):
in three point shooting, but none of them are in
the league of what Houston is. So to me, I
don't think we need a whole lot offensively or over
the top for Houston to win this game outright. I
think if they shoot thirty four to thirty five percent
from three, given what we know they do defensively. I
think they win this game out right. I think five
(25:35):
points cal. I don't know if it hits five and
a half because I think the public's gonna love Duke
in this one. But I'd grab the five why I
can here, I'd be all over Houston and sprinkle a
little something on the money line as well. I think
they win this game out right.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
I Marco. Marco helped me out here.
Speaker 1 (25:55):
I am like this close to putting in a Houston bat.
I'm also this close to just saying all right, John Murray,
I'm going to make the Executi decision.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
We are no longer rolling over.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
Let's take a little bit of profit on the US future.
I am like Teeter Dottering, Listen, I'm a broken woman
right now.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
We had no dogs went out right. For the last
three weeks.
Speaker 1 (26:15):
We had no dogs went out right except for Arizona State,
who did cover in the College of Wall playfaic. It
has been just tough sledding for me in this nil
and transfer portal era.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
The cream has risen to the top.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
I like Joe's point, though, and this is something that
I didn't really want to dive deep on. He's right
about the ACC outside of Clemson and a mediocre KU team.
Speaker 3 (26:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
Maybe that's enough of the push here to get me
on the Houston Cougars at least plus the points.
Speaker 3 (26:49):
Well, Kelly, I'm going to be the contrarian on the
panel today because if I hear one more person talk
about the ACC and how easy it's been for Duke,
it has been easy for Duke. But people, this is
an elite team. Okay, have you watched them play? They are?
This is gonna be, to me, the best offense that
(27:11):
Houston has played. And I know Joe made a good
point about, you know, Houston such a good three point
shooting team. Well, I'm gonna say two things. First, I'm
gonna say, wasn't Alabama supposed to be a good three
point shooting team? Didn't They just put up one hundred
and thirteen points in the game before, and Duke made
them look silly. You know, I think when this is
(27:33):
all said and done, you know, people are gonna say
Duke is better than we actually thought. You know, we
smashed the ACC too much. You know, they could only
play who was in front of them. Now, Houston's done
a great job and Teddy alluded to the fifteen of
seventeen opponents that they held to sixty five points or less.
That was part of my notes, But I also had
(27:54):
the last the asterisk to that is, one of the
two teams that did score over sixty five points was
Gonzaga in that second game. Why because Gonzagua is an
elite offense. Duke's an elite offense. Duke is gonna be
able to find ways to score. They have too many weapons.
You know, everybody knows about Cooper Fly, but this team
(28:16):
has other weapons on him. The top three who are
you going to stop?
Speaker 5 (28:20):
You know?
Speaker 3 (28:20):
And then they've got other role players. I like this spot.
And as far as Houston banging down those threes, well,
Duke plays defense, like I said, And you know what,
it's a lot easier shooting those wide open threes when
you're playing with the lead. What's gonna happen when Duke
has a lead in the second half and you've got
(28:40):
to half pressure making those three point plays. And trust me,
Houston's got a soft spot in my art because I
had my biggest play of the tournament on them on
Sunday when they just steamrolled Tennessee. But Why did I
have them against Tennessee. Well, it was the perfect storm.
They were coming off one of those tight wins against
(29:01):
Purdue the game before one which some people said they
were lucky to win because they got the benefit of
the no pushoff call and then had that crazy inbounds
play to win it at the end. But I like
teams that come off those close games. And who did
they play Tennessee, who was coming off a very satisfying
(29:23):
route of Kentucky. Remember Kentucky beat them twice during the
regular season. They got the revenge in the most important game. Now,
the one asterisk that I have with Duke in this game,
and it is you know, I always say revenge is
the most overused term in sports betting, But I say
there is one that I take note of, and that
(29:44):
is you always remember who ended your season. Well, it
was Duke that ended their season last year, fifty five
fifty one in a paint dry game. And that's what
a lot of people expect this game to be this year.
Duke's offense is way better than they were allowed next year.
You know, Houston is good as well and improved, and
(30:05):
they you know, tournament tested, got some experience last year.
But when it comes to tournament experience, nobody has as
much experience as Duke over the years. How many final
fours they've reached. I'll go ahead, I'll go with Duke.
An ah last factor. When they do have the lead
late in the game and Houston has to file, Duke
(30:25):
makes their file shots, I'll go ahead. I'll lay it
with Duke. I'll be out there by myself, all right.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Enjoy your public island, Marco.
Speaker 1 (30:35):
We're gonna go see your buddy, the stat daddy, Ralph
Michaels brush off a plane from Vegas. We appreciate you
tuning in hanging out with us. Let's hear what Ralph
has got dug up for the last edition of this
year's TNA. Because in Ralph forgot his glasses in Vegas,
Jonathan for being here after taking a red eye back
(30:56):
to Florida last night. That is never a good time.
But Ralph, you kind of dug into some different numbers here.
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Maybe you can give our audience some insight. Again.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
I know these lines are tight and the public has
yet to come in on necessarily a side, maybe a
little bit on some totals, But I'm really curious how
the raw data looks for both of these games.
Speaker 8 (31:18):
First to shout out to Marco and his lovely wife
Lori for hosting me. Thank you so much, Kelly. I'm
going to go through four things. I want to go
through the bar Torvik numbers since March the first, some
Final four numbers, some national championship numbers, and my best bet.
So I'm just going to run through them now. I
love Ken Palm, but I even like bar torbick Moore
(31:39):
because you can adjust the dates. You can adjust the
home and away games or away neutrals, you can adjust
conference only, and you get all the metrics for offense, defense, temple,
and all the categories. So while Vir was talking about
Duke and Houston being the number one and number two defenses,
if you look since the last week of April, Houston
(32:00):
is number nineteen in offense, number two in defense. Duke
is number two on offense and number twenty three on defense.
So while they had a great game against Alabama, Duke
is an elite three point defense and not a great
two point defense. It was the perfect matchup against the Tide.
When you look at Florida and Auburn, Florida the number
one offense in college basketball since the last week of February,
(32:24):
and the number thirty five defense, Auburn number twenty five
and number twenty two. So those are just a couple
different ways to look at it. Temple wise, the fastest
team by far Florida number forty two, Auburn one sixty six,
Duke two forty four. And we know Houston is slow
since the last week of February, they're number three twenty seven.
(32:46):
Now I'm going to talk some Final four numbers. Now,
let's remember this, guys. I only have the last eleven years,
so we're talking twenty two games. And while eleven years
seems like a big sample size, when we're only talking
about twenty two games, you can't put nearly as much
stock in as you can season to date numbers. But
let me share them with you. In the Final four
(33:06):
the last eleven years, small favorites up to four and
a half are three, five and one against the spread.
Favorites of minus five and higher eight and five against
the spread, nothing great either way. Totals in the Final
four Totals under one thirty are zero to three, but
Kelly Final four totals of one point thirty and higher
(33:29):
actually thirteen five and one over under. That is seventy
two percent. And that is surprising because while we played
in NBA arenas, the final four are actually always in
football arenas, so it easin is a different site line.
So that over under number in the final four did
surprise me. And I know the like you like knowing
this number, Kelly. Since twenty twelve, the straight up winner
(33:53):
in the Final four has gone fifteen to six and
one against the spread. So there have been six dogs
that have covered out of those twenty two games. Let's
look at the National Championship. The outright winner in the
National Championship has gone ten to one against the spread.
The only dog that has covered in the last eleven years,
(34:15):
North Carolina was plus four against Kansas back about seven
or eight years ago. They won by three, So that's
the only dog that covered the spread and did not
win the game. When you look at favorites of minus
six and higher in the National Championship, there's three and
zero smaller favorites three and five against the spread. And
(34:37):
when we look at totals totals under one forty in
the National Championship, three and one over under. If a
total is one forty or higher, the over under one
and six the only over covered by one point in
two thousand and fifteen. So just some bart metrics, some
Bartrovic metrics, some Final four numbers, national Championship numbers, and
(35:01):
for the final bet on it, I'm going to leave
you with my best bet. It's going to be Florida
team total over eighty one or over eighty one and
a half. I talked about Florida having the number one
tempo team since late April, the number one offense in
late April, the number forty two tempo team, the best
of the remaining teams. Florida started this season eleven and
(35:24):
sixteen over under. That's fifty nine point three percent to
the over to the under. Kelly, Florida has gone over
the total eleven straight times and they've covered those games
by nine point three points per game. When they're off
three straight overs, they've gone eight and oh to the over,
and Auburn seven and three over under versus up tempo teams,
(35:46):
Florida over the total currently eighty one or eighty one
and a half. And thank you everyone that tuned into
the TNA segments its entire year of bet on it.
I appreciate each and every one of.
Speaker 2 (35:58):
You being it to Ralph is the best.
Speaker 1 (36:00):
Make sure you guys are giving him a fall at
follow excuse me at cal Sports LV, so you never
miss out on any of that. Tna the Proptologist here
for one more episode of prop Shop, at least until
football season. Andy Lang, thank you for dressing up for me,
because while I was getting really annoyed at every single
(36:21):
color of hoodie that you own, you look like a
Lakers I don't know what today. So I made him
put on the doctor's outfit because he is well. Got
some medication because I'm gonna need it after seeing this one.
I hope it goes in my favor. He wants to
talk about Cooper Flag, the guy who ripped my heart
and soul out in the first half versus Arizona.
Speaker 2 (36:41):
Let's hear it.
Speaker 9 (36:44):
Yeah, we're going back to Cooper Flag under seventeen and
a half points. He had the huge game, as you
well know, Kelly thirty points against Arizona, but then against
Alabama he comes up just short. He was only six
of sixteen from the field. And this Houston defense is
absolutely brutal. They only allow fifty eight point five points
per game eleven point seven points to guards eleven point
(37:05):
four points to forwards. They're just menacing. Actually, both these
teams have been playing incredible defense. But I think this
is a rock fight, an absolute slug fest. Cooper flags
shooting numbers not terribly great, uh forty seven percent from
the field goal but three pointers less than forty percent there,
and this is gonna be the best defense I think
(37:25):
he faces all year. So I expect the volume of
shooting to be there, but I expect a lot of
trouble with him making a lot of shots. Let's go
under seventeen and a half points.
Speaker 1 (37:33):
Ooh, I hope that bodes well for my Houston future.
Ah Andy Lang, I'm gonna miss you and uh your
little bottle of prescriptions. I know you didn't. I know
you didn't have a handy. I knew you didn't have it, handy.
Can you give yourself a little bit.
Speaker 9 (37:47):
After at they were expired, the big spier flag expired drugs.
I wasn't I wasn't giving them out. It was a
prop that I kept for the entire football season, just
for my just for the Wednesday spot. So out with
the old one with the new I thought, I.
Speaker 1 (38:03):
Was gonna have to call like, I don't know the
FDA or somebody on you give me your little promotion.
What you got going on here for the summer sports
season and see in August.
Speaker 9 (38:15):
Yeah, we're doing what years past and it comes out
to ninety nine dollars per month. Why not, Kelly, We
always preach long term. We're up ninety units in twenty
twenty three, one hundred and twenty seven units in twenty
twenty four. We're already up sixty one units after a
six no start here in April, so we're looking to
continue that run and an incredible fourteen out of seventeen
months profitable. So that's a streak that we're really really
(38:36):
proud of. All three months in twenty twenty five profitble.
So you can take advantage of that WT dot buzz
slash al short term profits, long term profits. We've got
you covered. Good luck on your place.
Speaker 1 (38:47):
And he does a lot of well we'll call it
obscure sports. If you want to know about darts, slap wrestling, boxing,
I'm not sure what of course, golf. I'm very excited
for your master's plays, Andy, and you know all of
the sports in between prop related. He is the best
at bump sports over on TikTok, excuse me, Andy lank
(39:08):
Betts over on TikTok and Instagram at bump sports on
x make sure you guys give him follow because he
has out a ton of free information on social media
every single day.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
Now.
Speaker 1 (39:16):
Normally this is where you guys would expect to see
some best bets, but because there's only two games, we
are going to just say thank you guys for hanging
out with us all season long here on bet on It,
from myself, Marco DiAngelo, Joe Vernieri, Teddy Covers, VR, Andy
Lang and.
Speaker 2 (39:35):
Of course Ralph Michaels.
Speaker 1 (39:36):
Shout out to our producer Dan Alexander Demand behind the
scenes as well. Either way, guys, we appreciate you hanging
out with us as always here on bet on It until.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
Next year aka football season.
Speaker 1 (39:50):
I think I'm gonna use a VR quote do damage,
do damage? Have a profitable final four, Go Gata as
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