March 26, 2025 • 58 mins
In this special March Madness Sweet 16 themed edition of Bet On It, Kelly Stewart, Joe Raineri, Marco D'Angelo, Teddy Covers, Bill Krackman, Gianni the Greek, Ralph Michaels and Andy Lang gather to give picks and predictions surrounding the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament!
Introduction 00:00
Arizona vs Duke 00:15
Sweet 16 Betting Steam Report with Gianni 13:37
Bill Krackman's Sweet 16 Best Bet 23:30
Purdue vs Houston 29:36
Sweet 16 Props to Play with Andy Lang 37:12
Sweet 16 Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 40:53
Best Bets 46:50
Introduction 00:00
Arizona vs Duke 00:15
Sweet 16 Betting Steam Report with Gianni 13:37
Bill Krackman's Sweet 16 Best Bet 23:30
Purdue vs Houston 29:36
Sweet 16 Props to Play with Andy Lang 37:12
Sweet 16 Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 40:53
Best Bets 46:50
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to bet on It Sweet sixteen edition. We're gonna
go through some of the Thursday and Friday games for
your betting pleasure. Let's get right into it. Marco DiAngelo,
Joe Vernieri, Teddy Covers. I am Kelly Stewart. Thursday night.
We'll call this the primetime game because it's past my
bedtime there on the East Coast. Arizona at nine, maybe
(00:21):
even nine and a half some spots in the Odds
logic screen Underdog versus Duke total one fifty three and
a half one fifty four. Marco DiAngelo, what say you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Well, Kelly, I'm looking at this one in You know,
Arizona they went five and two down the stretch. They
did lose two games. Those two games that they lost, though,
if you look at them, one of them was the
final game of the regular season, really didn't mean anything.
They were at Kansas. Kansas needed a win, but Arizona
was coming off the game before at home they hung
(00:55):
one hundred and thirteen up on their in state rival,
Arizona State. So I think that was a mel in
game for Arizona. And their other loss, well, who was
that against? Well, I was against Houston in the conference tournament,
and Houston is a lot of people's choice to make
the final four. So this is a team that I
think is playing good basketball at the right time. They're
(01:17):
coming off a dog fight in their last game. Kelly,
if you remember when you and I did some of
my tournament tips, one of the things I like is
to take a team that come off of dog fight
in their previous game. Why well, because if they're in
another dog fight, you know that they can handle it.
They've had the pressure of every bucket being important down
the stretch. They're going to be playing a Duke team that,
(01:40):
let's be honest, they haven't had many type games. They've
rolled in their two tournament games, and as we know,
Duke is one of the best teams in the country,
if not the best, But they did come out of
a conference that wasn't deep, and as we saw, Duke's
the only one standing from that AC conference. We saw
(02:01):
the other three teams, the next three in that conference
all will make early exits in Clemson, Louisville, and North Carolina.
So if you look at it right now, the stock
can't be any higher on Duke, and I think it's
just a little bit too high. I think the value
is with Arizona, and that's where I'm gonna be. Arizona
played well their first year moving into the Big twelve,
(02:23):
They've played teams that go up tempo. I think they'll
be fine in this one. I think this goes down
to the wire. Give me the points with Arizona, Joe.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I'm gonna mix this one up and three little curveball.
So my friends at the hard Rock posted this tweet. Right,
five dollars to win, I don't know, three hundred some thousand.
If Duke plus eleven hundred cashes, the other legs are
already in and I said, don't have the cash out button,
And of course that costs an issue. And I said,
just hedge. If you were the guy holding Duke eleven
(02:56):
to one, would you hedge as a nine and a
half point favorite against Arizona? And I say this as
somebody who had Florida minus nine and a half and
was in a sheer and utter panic up until the
last thirty seconds of that Yukon game.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Yes, I would. Now you know me, Hedging is for gardeners.
Don't believe in it, especially when you're dealing with the
team that's going to have the number one NBA pick
coming up that has, without adapt the best team. And
while yes, I get it, they played in the ACC,
which means they played a bunch of YMCA Rec League
teams this season here, but there is no denying that
(03:34):
this Dupe team is number one for a reason. And
you know, styles make fights here and you've got an
Arizona team who all year long has shown flashes of greatness,
but they have also struggled for as long as I
can remember. Against the better teams that they have played.
They beat up on the mediocre teams or the teams
(03:55):
that they are better than. Everything else is a struggle,
especially against some of the more elite squads that they
have faced. There is no better team that they will
have faced than the one they're about to here in Duke.
But instead of picking a side, I'm gonna go ahead
and look at this and go why in the world
we're talking about Every Duke game since the middle of
(04:18):
February that has had Cooper Flag in it has resulted
in eighty or more points for the Duke Blue Devils.
Now we've got an Arizona team that's gonna want to
push the pace to their detriment, by the way, is
what it's going to be. But they're gonna want to
push the pace. They're not nearly the quality defensive team,
(04:38):
not like what Duke is gonna bring to the table.
Duke also gets plenty of turnovers, and Duke is the
best free throw shooting team that remains in this tournament.
Arizona is going to be chasing Duke this entire game,
especially late. I say, just take the Duke team total
over eighty one to eighty one and a half here.
(05:00):
I don't see how the winner of this game is
going to have ninety points, and I think Duke will
eventually get there, but I'll take there over. I think
the value is in their team total. If it ain't broke,
why are we fixing it. It's not like Arizona's going
to try to slow this down and make it a
half court game. I think over the Duke team total
of eighty one eighty one and a half is the
(05:20):
way to go.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Here, All right, Teddy cover Since Joe didn't want to bite,
if someone did want to hedge on their Duke ticket,
would you let it ride this round and wait till
the next or would you put a little bit on
Arizona money line.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
You want, I have to put something on Arizona money
line here because you can find it plus four hundred,
so you can risk a quarter of a unit to
win a unit you know, or depend on. I don't
know what the numbers are here, but obviously we're talking
about what a multi hundred thousand dollars payout with some
guy that's already hit a bunch of previous long shot
champions or plus price champions. In my mind, you have
(05:59):
a positive, extremely positive expectation scenario because you can get
a plus price on every team that Duke's going to
face through the final four and maybe even beyond depending
on who their opponents are. So absolutely, you know, don't
take the cash out option. You nail that part kel
one hundred percent and look for a plus four hundred
(06:21):
Arizona money line. And again at plus four hundred, you
don't need to make a big win, you know, but
win something either way. And when you're not making a
big bet to hedge, it allows you to hedge a
little bit more next time, and a little bit more
of the time after that, should you want to continue
that strategy. All that being said, I mean Duke's a
(06:41):
really hard team for me, all right. I haven't played
hon Or against Duke in the tournament. I don't know
if I played Honor against Duke all year. Why are
they so hard? Well, what do we look for? We
look for teams that offer value. Duke is the most
public team in basketball, in college basketball, the betting markets
haven't slept on how good they are. This is not
a value laden team any stretch of the imagination. But
(07:05):
fading Duke isn't easy either. I did. I played against
Duke once. I remember one time, and I got lucky.
I was catching plus twenty three and they lost by
twenty one or something like that. It wasn't a right
side by any stretch of the imagination, because Duke is
that good. So when you have a team that is
that good and then being priced like they're that good,
I tend not to get involved with them all that much.
(07:26):
All that being said, we have a previous meeting this year,
all right, where Arizona hosted Duke at the Michale Center
in Tucson, and boy, that game was all Duke. I
think it was sixty nine fifty five. Caleb Love completely
shut down in that game. Three of thirteen shooting, Cooper
Flag went nuts, Knupple had a big day and it
(07:49):
might have been what we could say the low point
of the season for Arizona. Tommy Lloyd after the games,
it was a tough night for me in the program,
and he promised to play. He pledged to figure out
quote why the pace aren't fitting together as he would
have liked. And obviously they had some injuries in early
season play. That's not the case anymore. Their bench was
(08:09):
unproductive early in the season. After the Duke came, we
saw Tommy Lloyd kind of solidify what his bench rotations
are for the rest of the year. And again you're
to talk about Carter Bryant, Henry Vaser, Anthony Delorso and
Tobyo Waka combined for two of seven shooting in the
(08:30):
first meeting when they beat Oregon on Sunday. That the
four some thirty two points on eleven of twenty two
from the floor. So Arizona's depth has gotten a whole
lot better. They've answered the questions that Duke kind of
gave them early in the season. It's a triple circle
game for Love, who obviously played all those years at
North Carolina I think the Wildcats are live dogs in
(08:51):
this one. Don't know they can win, but nine nine
and a half seems a little bit rich for this
better it's dogg or pass for.
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Me, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I want to jump in and answer that question as
well as these other two guys danced around it. This
is an absolute no brainer. Okay, you're getting nine points
play one unit on Arizona plus the points. Okay, you
can win both bets. You don't have to lose Duke,
and you've got an insurance policy to get your original
(09:23):
bet back. Right. It's simple, that's I know, you know
Joe and the gardener joking at you got a chance
to win both bets. You're gonna do that every time.
If a guy wants to cash out, I'll take his
cash out price, I'll pay him, give it to me,
and I'll make my I'll make my money with the hedges.
(09:43):
Because if Duke does go all the way and wins,
you know, the remaining four games, you know, the two
this week and then the final four game in the
championship game, are you're gonna tell me they're going to
cover all four of them? You know, we saw Connecticut
do that last year and the bookmakers are making the
(10:04):
line high. They're not going to let that happen again.
Just hedge one unit every route on the dog plus
the points. Mail it in.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Would you do a half on the points, half on
the money line, because like to me, now I get it,
he's a five dollars better. That's the argument, Kelly. He
bets five dollars. He doesn't have ten thousand dollars laying around,
And I'm like, I don't think you need to bet
ten grand. I think you could bet thirty five hundred.
Cut it in half, right, let's just for basic knowledge
to say three grand fifteen hundred on the plus nine
fifteen hundred on the money line, right, Like you're guaranteeing
(10:36):
yourself a profit. VR talks about this all the time
on Last Call with me. I also am like Joe,
where I'm like, you have a team at eleven to
one that is currently the favorite, that is going to
be a favorite the whole way through. You bet five
dollars because the map says you need to guarantee yourself
a profit. So anything over said five dollars is the
problem is everybody else is looking at that. I think
(10:57):
it's like forty eight or forty nine thousand dollars money
line cash out.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
But I'll also say it is cal I just listen again.
Styles make fights. Arizona's not beating Duke. I think the
chance to hedge is when Alabama plays Duke. I think
next week is when you have the better opportunity, because
I think that's when you have Duke who could actually lose. Outright,
if they're gonna lose at all, you're talking about a
(11:22):
team seventeen of their last twenty one wins have come
by ten points or more. They've already destroyed this Arizona team.
I don't see anything changing in this game. I think
Alabama is your best shot at Duke being up ended
in the hedge.
Speaker 6 (11:35):
All right, all right, if we're all gonna go in twice,
I want to jump in twice. So I'm gonna talk
about the difference between Marco's style of hedging versus my
style of heading.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Marco wants to take the points and I'm going to
take the money. Lit Marco's style gives you the chance
to win both bets, which is a pretty big bonus.
If Duke wins not by margin, you can catch both sides. However,
you'll need to risk more to make the same amount.
The reason I prefer to do it on the money line.
(12:07):
I'm not trying for the little scores. I'm not trying
for the little hedges. I want the big score, and
I want to hedge as little as possible between now
and then. So I'm betting against myself on the money line. Yes,
but it's a smaller size bet because I'm getting a
four to one return. So it's just two different ways
of looking at the same problem. Marcos says, take the points,
you can catch them both, and I say take the
(12:27):
money line because I don't want to hedge off the
this incredible value, this incredible bet that I've already made.
Let's cash as much as we can.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
So just two ways of lot holding a Florida forty
to one. I want nothing more than for Duke to lose,
but I agree with Joe. I don't think this is
the spot for Duke to lose, So I would press
it again. I pressed it last week versus Yukon. I
was kind of kicking myself there for a better part
of two halves. But I'm gonna get it over here
at a VR because we're gonna mark see Marco's gonna
(12:58):
talk again.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Go ahead, Marco, Les Jelly, if you would have bet
Connecticut against Florida, you would have cashed the ticket plus
the points.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
Take the points.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Listen.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
The difference here is watch Marco eat a chicken wing
and watch Teddy do it, and you'll understand why Marco
wants to win both sides of the same bet.
Speaker 7 (13:18):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Marco is gluttnss and he wants to win all everything,
So I get it. Teddy is willing to hedge half
that chicken win now just to be still in the game.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
So there you go, Ken, love.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
It, love it, love it.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Let's go talk to VR. You get some steam report
and to get away from this nonsense. You can catch
him on Last Call with me every single Saturday and
Sunday and of course Thursdays and Fridays during the NCAA tournament. VR.
Speaking of Thursdays and Fridays, we've got the Sweet sixteen
tomorrow and Friday, And like I do on Last Call,
I'm just gonna let you do your thing. We've got
(13:53):
eight games to go over. What have you seen from
your side of the counter.
Speaker 8 (13:58):
I'll go get through the meet kill and let you
know what I got a lot of action already, and
as I talked about throughout the tournament, a lot of
betters look to get ahead of these games by tying
in stuff earlier in the week, So they're parlaying CBI,
n NBA, NHL with what they already like for Thursday
and Friday. So it's already starting to stick out, and
(14:18):
the biggest thing that's sticking out is over over over over.
I don't see a single game that the recreational betters
have bet under yet, and because of that, you've seen
the betting sit gets get out ahead of some of
these overs. Keep in mind, though they may come back
game day, especially if the line gets jacked a little
too high, and come in on the under. A lot
(14:39):
of times that's their initial move. They want to bet
the under, but knowing public money outweighs sharp money, especially
when you get to the sweet sixteen, the lead eight,
Final four championship game. That many times they'll get a
better number by sitting back, And even though it's a
zero sum game and another group may come in and
take that under at a decent number, alls it's doing
is eliminating some of the book's risk, but not enough
(15:02):
of it that they're going to adjust it significantly so
many times. By waiting, they'll be able to get a
much better number of coming under later in the week,
So keep your eyes on that. Just check Odd's logic,
you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. We'll start off
with Duke Arizona. This is the number one verse, number
four over money immediately from the groups at one fifty
(15:22):
two and one fifty three. But here's one of those spots.
When he got the one fifty four, you saw some
resistance on the under. So it looks like a game
that the sharp betters want to bet under, just looking
for a higher total than the opener was. All the
money's coming on Duke seven out of ten bets already,
if not eight out of ten bets, and.
Speaker 7 (15:40):
The over as well BYU Alabama.
Speaker 8 (15:43):
It's about sixty percent on Alabama, what you'd expect from
a minus four, minus four and a half five type
of favorite. But the over is what got bet at
one seventy three and one seventy four. Another one where
at one seventy six you saw resistance. So again once
the line moved that significantly, you did get sharp money
on the under. But here's one where nine out of
(16:05):
ten bets if higher than that, even if you could
get higher than that, are on the over from the
recreational betters. They love BYU Alabama over. It's probably the
highest total on the board. I think in the sweet
sixteen Arkansas Texas tech over money again groups got out
laying the one forty six going over one forty seven.
Not much on the side. This is one where you're
(16:27):
getting a little more Arkansas money. Arkansas's also getting a
little money line action as well from the recreational betters.
They're taking the points and they're also taking the money
line on Arkansas, Maryland and Florida. This is one of
the lowest number one verse number fours because you got
Duke Arizona and you got Houston vers Purdue. Both of
those are number one verse number four, but with lines
(16:49):
of minus eight minus nine, this one's a lot tighter.
Not surprisingly, Maryland, most power ratings have them as a
top fifteen team. Some guys have them as close as
top ten, and I think that's why you're seeing a
much shorter number. But they laid the minus five on
the Florida side, getting out ahead of the public because
that's getting eight plus out of ten.
Speaker 7 (17:11):
Bets already and the money on Florida.
Speaker 8 (17:13):
As well as the over seven out of ten, eight
out of ten on the over also, but what did
we see on Tuesday when the line was seven? They
blasted Maryland Maryland plus seven hit by multiple groups, pushing.
Speaker 7 (17:25):
That back down.
Speaker 8 (17:26):
So you probably minus six right now if you look
at the board on Florida, which you know it got
steamed earlier in the week. Move on the Friday, Michigan
Auburn one verse five, Michigan getting some money. Also another
dog that seems to be live according to the public,
and the over is about sixty forty, which is what
you'd expect. The biases always towards the over, but this
one looks legit because you did get the betting sin
(17:48):
against that laid over fifty one over fifty two, came
back and went over fifty two.
Speaker 7 (17:52):
And a half as well.
Speaker 8 (17:54):
That's why you're looking at that higher total. But it's
pretty balanced from the recreational betters. And again Auburn god
hit at minus seven and a half, also got hit
at minus eight last night.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
I believe that happened then.
Speaker 8 (18:07):
Mississippi, Michigan State, Michigan State money another about sixty forty
a little less than that. This one isn't as heavily
bet as the other games. Same thing with the total
a little bias sixty forty, so you got favored and
over about sixty forty what you get on most games.
That's the bias of the public. The initial move was
on Mississippi. The Mississippi at plus four got bet. Got
(18:31):
a little under plus three and a half as well,
But if you looked at the screen, you'll see Michigan
State came in and got hit and minus two and
a half money line, minus three and money line, So
Michigan State at three or better definitely the sharp side there.
Purdue Houston another one sided game, a number one, no surprise.
(18:52):
Nine out of ten tickets are on Houston. The overs
a little more balanced, about sixty forty. Again, that's what
you expect. That's not like saying it's you know, public
money's on the over, because you expect that bias.
Speaker 7 (19:03):
More towards the over.
Speaker 8 (19:05):
But this is one of the few unders that got
hit early at under one thirty three and a half.
Nothing the report on the side there, it seems like
it's going to be the public versus the sportsbooks unless
you get some sharp money getting involved between now and
tip off. But so far it's just been eighty plus
percent of the Houston money from the public and being
(19:27):
tied into early parlays, Houston money line and Houston minus
the points, and finally Kentucky Tennessee two versus a three.
But you have a spread that opened about five and
a half and Kentucky money came in at plus five
and a half, at plus five all the way to
plus four and a half. One of the groups I
worked with took the plus four and a half. Then
(19:47):
last night was four across the board. That's when you
saw Tennessee money come in. So if you agree with
the early sharp money, you could still get pretty much
the first and second number that they got down on.
Speaker 7 (19:59):
And this is another other rarity.
Speaker 8 (20:01):
Where bettings think gets weren't wait and see if the
public's going to bet it up. They went under immediately
under one forty seven, under one forty six and a
half all the way to under one forty five and
a half, even though it's another spot where about sixty
forty towards the over, so real quickly the three that
stick out the most, no surprise, it's the number one teams, Duke, Florida,
(20:24):
and Houston, all three not only being tied up in
all kinds of parlays ats, but money line parlays. Those
three are tied into a ton of money line parlays.
Three team money line parlay. One of those teams go
down on the money line, it's gonna be a great
day for the book. It's gonna wipe out so many parlays,
(20:45):
so much of the risk from parlays. If one of
those teams or two of them go down ATS, it'll
be another phenomenal day for the books, will wipe out
a ton of the risk. Got to remember, recreational betters
don't care about negative v bets.
Speaker 7 (20:58):
They are teasing.
Speaker 8 (20:59):
They're using the teaser to get these teams down, to
get Arizona down, to get Florida down, to get duked down.
So they're ats in it, money lining it, and teasing
it every possible way. They want money on the three
number one teams that are standing right now going into
the action. It's Florida that's not getting I mean, Florida
is getting it. It's the where's that other number one? No,
(21:22):
it's those three that are getting all the money. Yeah,
those three are getting all Auburn. Auburn's the number one
that's not getting much love. Like I said a little
more on Michigan, which is kind of surprising, but Auburn's
getting the least amount of love from the betting public.
In fact, it's not being used as a money line parlay.
It's those three that they're tying in even with other
(21:43):
teams before they.
Speaker 7 (21:44):
Do it with Auburn. So I got Auburn as a
future So it's a good sign for me.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Yeah, it is a good sign for you. And after
Florida had their scare there against yukon the other day,
does not make me feel good as a Florida better
VR question. So right now, i've Florida at forty to one.
If they were to beat Maryland and Texas Tech beats Arkansas,
they end up playing each other. So there's kind of
a hedge if you will, built in there, right because
(22:10):
they're going to play each other. But would you hedge
either one of those plays going into the Sweet sixteen?
I mean both of them. Our favorites headed into the
Elite eight favorites have done very well in this tournament,
maybe not always against the spread, but definitely winning out right.
As you mentioned with those moneyline parlays.
Speaker 8 (22:27):
Florida is about seven eight points better than Texas Tech, So.
Speaker 7 (22:31):
You have both pending. Yes, I let them ride. You
got a number one, you got a number one there,
and you got a number three sneaking in. Let that go.
You let that go because you have you got decent.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Numbers on them.
Speaker 7 (22:46):
Yeah, and just watching and let them play out. Let
them play out.
Speaker 8 (22:52):
You placed a good bed early on, and then revisit it,
revisit it after the weekend. Hopefully you know you're still alive,
You're still standing. One's going to be there. I'm pretty
sure of it. It's almost definite. See which one's alive.
But I think you're good.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
I would just let it go. I would just let
it go, all.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Right, VR, giving me that push to not be a wuss.
I always appreciate it. Greek Underscore Gambler on all your
social channels, Greek Underscore Gambler seven over on TikTok. He
does a great job over there as well. VR. I'm
gonna see you tomorrow morning, last Ball, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
and Sunday with you. I cannot wait our special guests
from last week's episode is back this week. Bill Krackenberger
(23:32):
newer to wager talk dot com. He has had a
very great start to joining us, and he is here
to give you a best bet for the Sweet sixteen.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
Hey, kel, how about this after going like zero to
five on Friday, which with every other gambling syndicate in
the world at every other sharp, I don't know how
I'm ahead like seven units, but I am still. You know,
it's all about bank roll management and playing more. You know,
I usually go one two units on games on the
strength of it, So you know it's going to be
(24:04):
a very profitable time of the year and everything. I
can't wait till baseball comes. I can't wait until preseason football.
You guys will see. So, uh, it's been about a
year and a half by the way of Kelly and
Johnny and Pres all these wooing me over Marco at
dinner and uh yeah, so I'm glad to be over
here with you guys. So this week we have you know,
(24:27):
once it gets deeper and deeper, uh to hit that
final four gets tougher and tougher, The market gets more
much more efficient. So I have a couple of games
that I want to talk about real quick, nothing crazy again.
Bank roll management means everything here, and uh, you know,
just betting, you know some someone just because the games
on TV and it's the last game of the day.
(24:48):
There's no reason to just fire on everything. But I
want to give you Arkansas Texas Tech. Uh, this should
be an exciting game. The highest seated team left as
the hen seed Arkansas taking on this ree seed Texas Tech.
First of all, I know a lot of people don't
like Kyler Parry. Everyone doesn't like people successful. Though. I
(25:10):
think Cali Perry will have Arkansas and the team ready here.
They're gonna speed the game up, probably put a lot
of pressure on Texas Tech. And you know, Texas Tech
doesn't turn the ball over as much as you you know,
as much as you see some of these you might
just see some quick and easy buckets right out of
the gate here. So I'm looking for maybe some points
(25:33):
in this game. Also, this is one of those tournament
games that you have a chance at a foul fest
towards the end of the game. If it's a five, six, seven,
eight point game under a minute, you may see another
dozen points here. You know, these fouls It's amazing what
happens at the end of these games. It's the reason
why when I met my Unders, I like the bet
Unders first half, so you stay away from the foul fest.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (25:58):
So the other game I'll get into real quick is
is Kentucky Tennessee. It's rare to see conference foes head
to head in the Sweet sixteen, but this is what
you get when you have fourteen teams from one conference.
Seven of the fourteen in the SECS. He's still still available,
still out there, Kentucky Tennessee go head to head in Indianapolis.
(26:22):
I love to watch as it gets deeper and deeper.
I love to watch now that most of the Cinderella's
are really gone. This is the Kentucky team that can
beat anyone when they're playing their best though. They're one
of the three teams that can beat Duke. I'll just
tell you in my opinion, and they've already beating Tennessee
twice this year, once when Lamar Butler got hurt and
(26:47):
once when he didn't even play. So as long as
he can stay healthy in this game, I think Kentucky
has a real chance, maybe even to take it out right.
But I see the lines like four and a half everywhere,
but you know, I like to buy it at the five.
But wait until Leaven closer to the game time. You
may get some favorite money here, so you may get that.
You may get that five. So there's a couple of
(27:08):
games for you. Nothing crazy, everyone enjoy relax and you
know the weather broke out here. It's eighty eight degrees
in Vegas. I'm looking forward to get outside and a
little bit today and looking forward to these games, the
Sweet sixteen and then the big weekend.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Absolutely crack. I'll be there in a couple of weeks
for the National Championship Game. I hope to see you
there before we.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
Let you go.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Can you tell everybody about your baseball? Patnage, you have
a overtwager talk dot com.
Speaker 5 (27:36):
You know baseball. Even though I grew up on baseball
and it's my favorite thing to watch, there's nothing like
you know, we can't do it yet here in Vegas,
but if the A's come here, it's gonna be great
for everybody. The road teams that come in, all the fans,
just like the Raiders, but the Raiders only get to
do it eight times a year, so they're gonna do
it eighty times a year for baseball. Like I said,
(27:56):
I grew up on baseball. Absolutely love it. Nothing like
going to Peck, going Sandy Diego watching the game. I
love doing that. And you know, baseball is literally one
of my really good sports. I've done very well at
it since I started my service, and like I said,
it's something I grew up on. But however, I know
for a fact a lot of the sports books they
(28:17):
love baseball, love it because they make more money than NFL.
That's right, they make more money than the NFL season
because it's every day, one hundred and sixty two games.
I mean, the sportsbooks love it. That's why you have
to make sure you have multiple outs for baseball. Living
in this town, when I first moved here twenty some
years ago, every single spot had ten cent lines. What
(28:38):
that means is minus a dollar twenty, come back a
dollar ten. Now we only have certain spots that have
that ten cent line, and then we have breakoffs that
teams that break at a dollar fifty come back one
thirty five.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
And so forth.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
So the idea is to have lots of places to
bet at. It's very important. I can still play very
close to no big baseball, because I do have all
these spots in town, the places that threw me out
for winning, like stations. You know, they they have decent lines.
So I'm gonna even though you guys threw me out,
I'm gonna tell the customers and the fans make sure
(29:11):
you have stations. William Hill, they threw me out too
over winning. Uh but uh Westgates, I mean point they.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Threw both of those places threw me out. So like,
I really expect you to not be able to bet
there as well.
Speaker 5 (29:24):
Yeah yeah, So I look forward to it and have
some fun and join us over here. A way to
talk nice.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Thanks cal absolutely crack. We will see you here in
about a week and a half. Good luck for the
Sweet sixteen. All right, let's get into the Friday primetime
game ten to oh nine Eastern. I'm gonna take the
over on that star time. By the way, Purdue versus Houston.
They are an eight point underdog total one thirty two. Teddy,
I'm gonna start off with you, Calvin Sampson. Houston. They've
(29:51):
done a really good job this year. I know Purdue's
kind of been one of those wishy, washy teams, not
a team that I really want to back here, especially
as an underdog. Better. I have a ten to one
future on Houston And no, I'm not going to ask
you about hedging it.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
No, and Houston's one I might not hedge in this game. Look,
Perdue has been in the Sweet sixteen. This is six
times and eight years for Purdue in the Sweet sixteen.
You know, they had a great weekend in Providence. That
being said, who did they beat? They beat High Point
and McNee State. And McNee State, by the way, was
hungover after beating Clemson in the first round. It was
(30:30):
not a good game for them at all. So I
don't know that any team had it easier to get
here than Perdue. To reach the Sweet sixteen. They got
the right team to the right time. And you know
we've seen Perdue the last couple times underdogs. Well, let's see,
they haven't won. Illinois beat them, Michigan beatam Michigan State
beat him, and Houston's real all right, The Koogs are
(30:54):
as the lade as the lead gets. This team's won
thirty games five times in the last six seasons. All right.
They're the best defensive team in the country, number one
in points allowed per game. What number five and opponents
field goal percentage. And it's not just defensively that Houston
has been able to dominate. They're really good from three
(31:16):
point range. Obviously, they're a really good shot blocking team.
And they don't turn the ball over, just six in
the country when it comes to turn of rate nine
point two turnovers per game. Some of that has to
do with the fact that they play at a slower pace.
But when you have a team that plays defense, takes
care of the basketball, and hits three point shots, that's
(31:38):
a recipe for going a long, long way in this tournament.
Here's the only lost four games all year. Three of
those losses came in overtime. The other came by five
against Auburn in the second game of the season. Now,
I do worry. This is basically a home game for Perdue,
what an hour away from their campus, So Houston with
a disadvantage in that regard, But that's also keeping this
(32:00):
price down. I think the Coops are the superior team
if I'm playing I'm laying.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Kelly all right, Joe Ranieri Teddy mentioned the dichotomy of
some of these teams that like to play fast versus
some of these teams that like to play slow talk
to me about this breakdown with the boiler Makers and Houston.
Like I said, I've got Houston ten to one in
pocket with our good friend John Murray from the Kelly
and Murray Show. Shout out to our audience for at
least getting us to the Sweet sixteen. Thoughts on this
(32:29):
one and how Houston can exploit Purdue at least from
a size advantage.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
Well, it's yeah, Well I think we also have to
keep in mind, I mean Teddy's right, Houston is like
watching pain try their number three hundred and fifty ninth
in pace according to Ken Palm in the country. But
don't mistake it, Purdue is not running up and down
the court. They're not Arizona right there. They're not going
to want to be running and scoring their number two
(32:57):
hundred and ninety eighth in Ken Palms pay statistics. So
given the fact that with Purdue it becomes very hit
or miss sometimes with whether or not they're hitting their
shots right, But the reality is Houston can suffocate and
has suffocated quality offenses like Purdues all year long. I
(33:20):
also don't think now.
Speaker 7 (33:21):
Purdue doesn't turn.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
A ball over a whole lot so I don't know
that Houston's going to be able to take advantage like
they do against teams that are a little bit more
lack of days ago with the with the handling of
the ball, specially in transition. But the reality is they're
not going to get a ton of second chance points here.
They're going They're not very good against the rebounding anyway.
(33:42):
They're certainly not going to dominate Houston on the boards here.
So I thought the under was the way to look here.
I saw it at one thirty three, one thirty three
and a half. I think it's down to one thirty
two and a half. And I agree with the move here.
Speaker 7 (33:56):
I've got two.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Teams that aren't in a rush to do anything. I
do think that all the points Purdue get they're gonna
have to earn. But this is a different animal Houston
defensively than what Purdue has played. Again, Purdue offensively has
shown an ability to be able to shoot guys out
of the gym. I don't see that happening here. I
(34:18):
think this game is played in the low sixties. I
think this stay is way under. I don't think we
get to one hundred and thirty. I think the under
is the way to look here.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
Marco, first glance, I completely agree with Joe here on
the under. But as we know, this first couple of
rounds has been over City and both of these teams
are excellent three point shooting teams. So that worries me
just a bit.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Yeah, it does. It is a low number, and they've
adjusted it accordingly because of the way Houston has played
defense this year. For me, I'm gonna, you know, piggyback
on what Teddy had said. You know, yeah, there's no
question Purdue has had the easiest path to this S
Week sixteen, and they caught the major break whenever McNee
(35:04):
upset Clemson. But on the flip side to that, Houston,
for being as high of a seed as they are,
they drew a tough assignment in their last game. Gonzaga
was playing good basketball at the end of the season. Gonzaga,
you know, came through the West Coast Tournament. They beat
Saint Mary's, another team that was in the tournament in
(35:27):
you know, won their first game, lost their second game.
But the difference in that Gonzaga game, you know, they
had to battle and they had to do everything, and
if you look at the stats from that game, the
fact that they were able to still come out of
that game victorious. Gonzaga shot fifty percent for the game,
forty from three point range, and they were fifteen to
(35:49):
fifteen from the foul line. Gonzaga couldn't do anything more
in that game and they still lost the game. That
is going to be bad news for Purdue because I
don't think Purdue is going to have success against this
defense of Houston. Houston's holding opponents to thirty eight percent
shooting this year a big difference between the two defenses.
(36:09):
I think they get the job done. The other part
of it is you look at this Houston team, and yes,
we know Purdue has been to the tournament how many times,
has had success, but I don't think this year's team
is as good as the teams we've seen in the past.
Whereas this Houston team they've had success too. I think
this is the best edition we've seen of them. And
(36:31):
when you get and look at their top eight scorers,
four of their top eight scorers are seniors in this game,
including starting guard and leading scorer L. J.
Speaker 7 (36:43):
Cryer.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
I just think Houston has too many weapons. Purdue may
hang around for a while. But this one is they're
going to pull away in the second half. I like Houston.
They move on to the next round.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
Well note for programming, Houston's been one of the best
first teams over the last couple of years. That's what
I've got circled for this one. Let's go hang out
with the proptologist Andy Lang and see what he's got
for us as a best bet. The Proptologist Andy Lang.
The doctor is in, except he's not wearing his lab coat,
(37:17):
and everybody in the comments wants to know how the
hell some drunken high school kid wrote a shopping cart
into your pond. At least that's my theory.
Speaker 7 (37:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 9 (37:27):
The wind couldn't have blown it in there, like you
have to work to get it in there, and it
is at the bottom of a hill.
Speaker 5 (37:33):
There had to be a lie.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
I think you just write it down the hill like.
It's not like it made it up the hill magically,
like somebody was probably riding in a jackass style, a
couple too many beers.
Speaker 7 (37:43):
No, it's cold, it's just the water is still cold.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
But what would you go flying into the water like that?
I don't know. Why do people do the polar Bear plunge.
They just do people do dumb things, especially when alcohol
is involved. That's my theory. Maybe you'll get an answer
one day. If you guys miss Andy's TikTok slash Instagram,
it's pretty funny. Go over to his page at andy
(38:07):
Langbats and you guys can see what the heck we're
talking about. But today we were talking about March madness,
and you have a best prop bet for us up
right now at wagertalk dot com. Nice special as well.
Tell me about that first well special.
Speaker 9 (38:23):
We're calling it warm Weather and Hotter bank rolls. It's
warming up, Kelly, and we need to do a three
month special. Went back and looked, did a little deep
dive into our profits, and in the last seventeen months
we have been profitable in fourteen out of those seventeen months.
So getting a month special is really good. But what
Tiba better is getting a three month special. We're up
ninety three units in twenty twenty three, one hundred and
(38:45):
twenty seven units in twenty twenty four. We're up sixty
five units early in twenty twenty five, so we are
often running and we turned a profit in January. In
February and March. We're batting one hundred percent on that,
so you can get an instant disc out down to
five forty nine on that special over at wager Talk
WT dot bus slash al, these are bets that we
(39:06):
bet with our own money. This or plays that we
bet with our own bankrolls. And this is how we've
taken small bankrolls and made them into big ones. He
can get three months thirty percent discount. WT dot buzz
slash al.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Love to hear that. Let me know why you laughed.
I logged in to film this segment and you started
laughing when the graphic went up. Cooper Flag twenty one
and a half points that laughable?
Speaker 5 (39:29):
Huh.
Speaker 9 (39:30):
Well, I just don't know where they get this number for, Like,
can I just see him get over this number?
Speaker 7 (39:37):
Please?
Speaker 1 (39:37):
Can I just can I just watch it once before I.
Speaker 9 (39:40):
Buy into this Listen, Kelly, nobody likes paying taxes, but
nobody likes paying a Cooper Flag tax, which is what
you're getting here. He's gone under ten out of the
last eleven games. The two games since return from injury,
he's only had twelve and eleven shot attempts. He's only
made one three pointer in each game. I just don't
see where this number comes from. Zone is not great defensively.
(40:01):
They give up a lot of points to guards and forwards,
but Duke is just loaded. They have three guys averaging
over twelve and a half points, and they have seven
guys averaging over five points. This is you know, Cooper
Flag gets all the headlines, but he's not the only
guy that can score on this team. This is just
wildly inflated. Twenty one and a half. I would play
it under twenty and a half. I just don't think
(40:21):
that they're going to need him to go ballistic. They're
too complete of a team. So give me the under
on Cooper Flag's points.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
All right, the proptologist is always here giving you that prescription.
He didn't even bring any of the props.
Speaker 7 (40:35):
It's only for NFL.
Speaker 9 (40:36):
It was there was an NFL thing. I feel more
comfortable when I'm working from.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
No more telehealth. Get the hell out of here, Andy Lang.
We appreciate you. Cooper Flag under twenty one and a
half points. And these glasses, of course mean one thing,
and one thing only. It's time for TNA. Rob Michaels
in another off this week. Shout out to Marco D'Angelo.
For you're letting Ralph hang out there in Vegas. It's
always a good time to be back, Ralph. I'll be
(41:07):
back there unvisually. I'm gonna miss you, but you know what,
I'm not gonna miss this week's t NA. We've got
some systems for round three, We've got some systems for
round four aka the Elite eight as well. Break them
down for me, and then of course leave our audience
with your best bet.
Speaker 10 (41:23):
Okay, let's remember this, Round one has twice the volume
of round two. Round two has twice the volume of
round three. So as we progress, the sample size gets
smaller and smaller, which makes the trends less relative.
Speaker 5 (41:37):
But I do want to.
Speaker 10 (41:38):
Share the numbers with you round three, some situations, and
then round four as well before I get to my
best bet. So I went back to twenty sixteen. Guys,
if you blindly bet every favorite since twenty and sixteen
and round three, you've gone twenty one and thirty with
some pushes forty one point two percent, so the dogs
(41:59):
are very solid fifth eight percent. How about the totals, well,
Round three totals twenty overs, thirty three unders. That is
sixty two point three percent to the under, so very
easy to say that lean dogs, lean unders. How about
round three? If teams are awful win as a dog,
(42:20):
straight up win as a dog ats in round three,
they're twenty two and twenty fifty two percent over under
nineteen and twenty four forty four percent, so no real
trends in that situation. If they are off back to
back wins as a dog like Mississippi and Arkansas, those
teams twelve and six against the spread sixty seven percent,
(42:41):
five overs, thirteen unders. That is seventy three percent to
the under. And finally, how have number one seeds done
in round three? They've gone eighteen and twelve with couple pushes,
sixty percent against the spread, and when roundt when round
when number one seeds play in round three, they are
thirteen and eighteen over under forty one point nine percent.
(43:04):
So those were all round three. Let me go through
the exact same data in round four. I'll go through
it a little quicker. Favorites in round four eighteen and
twenty five forty two percent against the spread over under
in round four forty point nine percent to the over,
so fifty one point excuse me, fifty eight point one
(43:26):
percent to the under.
Speaker 7 (43:28):
Off a win is a dog.
Speaker 10 (43:29):
In round four, you're twenty and eleven against the spread
sixty four point five percent. You're thirteen and nineteen forty
one percent over under. If you're off a win back
to back games is a dog nine and three against
the spread, five and seven over under, and number one
seeds in round four twelve and ten against the spread,
seven and sixteen over under. So just some numbers to remember.
(43:51):
You're not going to base a play on it, but
it is important to know what's happened in the past
to see if it continues on in the future.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
All right, round, before you give me your best bet
for the Sweet sixteen, please let me know you've got
going on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 10 (44:06):
Well, you know, we're looking at loading some plays. I
have yet to load one yet. I don't see a
five percent in this round. We'll see what happens moving
into the Elite eight. So just make sure you check
out my package and excited at baseball starting and having
a great NHL season and college basketball as well. Nice
current run of sixty four percent my last thirty nine plays. Overall,
(44:27):
my best bet. I'm gonna look at a Friday game.
Cal Well, remember I started a segment by saying thirty
seven point three percent of every game has.
Speaker 2 (44:35):
Gone over the total in round one. That means over
sixty two percent have gone under.
Speaker 10 (44:40):
I'm looking at Michigan State and Old Miss under the
total on Friday. Michigan State comes in with a temple
of number one seventy. Old Miss comes in with the
temple of one thirty one. So both are slightly above
the five hundred or below the median mark in tempo.
Speaker 7 (44:58):
So we have two teams.
Speaker 10 (45:00):
Either are fast, neither are horribly slow. Michigan State does
not turn the ball over. They're number one thirty eight.
Michigan State does not force turnovers. They're number two forty five.
And Michigan State also does not shoot threes. In fact,
they're number three hundred and fifty six in the country
in percentage of points that come from threes. And oh yeah,
by the way, they're number three hundred and twenty three
(45:21):
in three point shooting percentage. Old Miss tempo again, number
one thirty one. They don't turn the ball over at all.
They're number three in the country with the fewest number
of turnovers and they don't shoot a huge amount of threes.
They're number one hundred and fifty eight in the percentage
of three point shots, and they're number one hundred and
twenty two in three point shooting percentage, but the equalizer
(45:44):
there Michigan State the number one best three point defense
in the country this season. Finally, if a team like
Michigan State is off back to back ATS wins in
round three and later, they've gone under the toe total
sixty one point five percent. If the opponent is also
(46:04):
off an ATS win, the under has gone under sixty
four percent, and in that situation, with a total under
one sixty the under is sixty seven percent. Michigan State
eleven and twenty four over under this season, Michigan State
is a favorite of UH two or more with a
total under one fifty one. How about four and thirteen
(46:27):
over under With six straight unders the last six games
added up a Friday best bet Michigan State Old miss
under the total.
Speaker 1 (46:37):
An under for the Sweet sixteen. At cal Sports LV
is where you guys can follow Ralph. He's pretty famous
on TikTok, at least on the wager talk TikTok. That
is all right, guys, We're gonna get out of here,
but first we got to give you some of those
best bets. It's the moment you've all been waiting for.
The best bets for the Sweet sixteen are here. We're
gonna start off with Joe Venieri, mainly because, oh well,
(47:00):
he's telling me I don't need to hedge my Florida
forty to one ticket.
Speaker 3 (47:04):
I'm not hedging the Florida fourteen to one ticket. So
there is absolutely no reason for us to go there. Again,
not the opportunity to hedge if you're holding future tickets
on teams.
Speaker 4 (47:16):
Like either Duke and or Florida.
Speaker 3 (47:19):
Here. Listen this number six, six and a half right now,
and there's a couple of reasons why I think Florida absolutely.
Speaker 5 (47:29):
Wins this game by double digits.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Here.
Speaker 3 (47:32):
The depth number one in this game is a huge mismatch.
Maryland one of the best starting fives in the country.
Arguments could be made it is one of the best
starting fives, but I can also point out that their
bench is one of the worst in the country. Here,
so they live or die with the five guys that
they roll out there each and every game. The Gators
(47:55):
have more big bodies to be able to throw at
Reese and than most teams ever Will or any team
in fact that Maryland has played to this point. Listen,
you can walk with the ball Derrek Queen all you
want and bank it off and win a shot in
a game that, quite honestly, you got out played. And
(48:15):
here's another big point, Cal out coach that entire damn
game Nico Medven made will. It looked like an absolute
fool most of that game there. Colorado State should have
won that game, but unfortunately Maryland made the bucket when
it mattered the most. Now they're gonna take on a
totally different animal, a Gator team, and quite honestly, cal
(48:39):
I am so happy that the Gators got pushed in
that game against Yukon, two time defending champions. Anybody thought
that the Gators or that Yukon was just gonna somehow
roll over and the Gators are gonna run them over
has not been paying attention here. I love the fact
that the Gators back was against the wall. I love
that they went to who they can go to all
(49:01):
the time. Every guy on this team. The depth is huge.
Any one particular guy, including of course they're all American
point guard who is you know, the guy that we
know when the game is on the line is going
to take control here. But it's the bigs in this game,
the depth of Florida and the shooting. I think, quite honestly,
(49:23):
what in the world is Maryland going to do when
all of a sudden Derrek Queen or Jullian Reeser and
foul trouble in the second half with six seven minutes
to go. They're never grabbing another rebound. They've got problems
when they have to go to that bench. And if
it's a tight whistle. I like Florida even more by
double digits here. I think Florida was pushed. I think
(49:46):
they dug deep, they understand what it takes, and I
think they roll this Maryland team this weekend. And then
it's a matter of whether or not you think hedging
against Texas Tech is going.
Speaker 4 (49:58):
To be the right move.
Speaker 1 (50:00):
I got Texas Tech thirty to one. Not when I
get to sit back and relax, this is here right now.
I like you said, I got the scare out of
the way, and I'm talking like went to home depot,
the game tipped off, the game looked good, came home,
all hell started breaking loose. I was like, do I
go back to home depot?
Speaker 5 (50:20):
Like, what do I? What do I do?
Speaker 1 (50:21):
If I went over to the neighbor's house. Big Gator
fan Brett walked in the door to watch the second
half the game with this, I kicked Tim out. I
was like, you have to go. It has nailed a
three as you walk in it. It was just a
really anyway, snay, long story story. I'm going to the
neighbor's house tomorrow night to watch the game. It's gonna
be a great time. Marco DiAngelo, You're taking the team
that nobody's talking about. It seems like everybody has written
(50:43):
them off for dead.
Speaker 4 (50:46):
They have.
Speaker 2 (50:46):
And you know, Auburn, they entered the tournament losing three
of their last four, and people wanted, you know, to
look at that with one of those losses coming to
Texas A and M. Oh, Texas A and M. Didn't
Michigan just beat Texas A and M. How many people
are gonna do the old ABC comparison there and say, well,
look at that, Oh, Michigan just beat Texas A and M,
(51:08):
and Auburn lost to them. Hey, just pump the brakes.
When Auburn lost to Texas A and M. They were
coming off a blowout win at Kentucky the game before
is Oh, who did they have on deck? Yeah, there
are Tribal Alabama and that was a big sandwich spot
late in the year, so right that went off. I
(51:29):
hope everybody makes the comparison to Texas A and M game,
because that's gonna be fine for me and give me
a little line value. This is an Auburn team that
went thirty and four in the best conference in college basketball.
Auburn has seven different players who average twenty minutes or
more per game. Six of those players are seniors. Five
(51:51):
of them average double digits. They've got balanced scoring, they
don't turn the football or football basketball over. Second in
adjusted offensive efficiency, twelfth in defensive efficiency. This is a
complete team. They've been there all year. I like them here.
They hold teams three point shooting just twenty nine percent.
(52:14):
I just don't see Michigan. They came out of the
Big Ten. Yeah, the Big Ten wasn't as bad as
the ACC, no question about that. But how many times
this year did we watch a Michigan game and they
were life and death to get the win. They found
a way to win it, but they were life and death,
and to be honest with you, they should have lost
(52:35):
to Uce San Diego. The coaching at the end of
that game just absolutely wanted me to pull out what
little hair I have left. They got the win, they
moved on. It ends for Michigan. Here, take Auburn, lay
the points in this one, and if you have any
Auburn futures, you don't have to do any hetching.
Speaker 1 (52:52):
Kelly, All right, now that that has been the entire
topic of this show, Teddy covers This is a game
that I've been asked to talk about our good friends
over at out Kick, our big SEC fans, and we
have an SEC matchup in the Sweet sixteen, And honestly,
I'm just gonna steal your cliff notes because I don't
know what to make of this game. These guys did
(53:14):
not play three times in the regular season, as we
know that sometimes people do in the SEC tournament, but
for two SEC teams to be playing each other in
the Sweet sixteen is unheard of. I text off Michaels
I said, is there any data to back this up?
He said, yeah, we got one game sample size from
twenty eighteen the Ohio Bobcats, And I'm like, thanks, but
Kentucky did win both regular season games against them. Now
(53:36):
Tennessee is a favorite. Here's my problem with the balls.
I feel like I cannot get two halves from them.
I either get a great first half or a great
second half, so third down and half. I'll be looking
at them at halftime. But you like them for the
full game? Here, why do you trust this team?
Speaker 5 (53:50):
So?
Speaker 4 (53:51):
I don't think there's in the comparison between Tennessee and
Kentucky showing out for the goals for these two teams
this year, you know, I mean the Sweet sixteen is
a dream a dream season for Kentucky considering where Mark
Pope started, where they bring a nine transfers, everybody left.
I mean it was a complete rebuild job. Kyli Pari
gone empty roster, whereas Tennessee is you know, they got
(54:14):
Final four talent and they're not surprised to be here.
And the fact that Rick Barnes was able to win
and cover a game in the round of thirty two
where he'd been zero to seven ats in his previous
seven dries tells us that this Tennessee team is legit.
Now the guard play here is key, all right. We
had two regular season meetings between these two teams, and
(54:36):
Kentucky's guards dominated both games defensively. Now we've got three
seniors in the backcourt for Tennessee, got Chanslamir you know,
ze Guy Ziegler and Jamal Mashik Okay Maschik had one
made shot in fifty five minutes versus this team in
two games. Lenaer went five of fourteen and three of
thirteen shooting in the two games, only had one assists.
It's not like Ziegler was great in either game. Combined,
(55:00):
in those two regular season meetings, we saw Tennessee fourteen
of sixty three from three point range. These are not systematic,
fundamental mismatch problems. These are problems that Tennessee had in
a couple of regular season meetings against a wildcat scene.
(55:21):
They're certainly good defensively, but Kentucky wants to play fast.
Tennessee's not gonna let them play fast. The balls have
certainly shown in this tournament that they're capably hitting some jobs.
And again the win over UCLA, no one's gonna look
at it as being anything impressive, necessarily one by nine,
But considering Barnes tracker in those games and considering the
(55:43):
guard play that they got, and that's what this bets on.
I'm betting on Tennessee's guards, and I think that'll get
us to a win by five points or more in
this Sweet sixteen matchup.
Speaker 1 (55:56):
As you guys know, the favorites just absolutely obliterated in
the first two rounds, and coincidentally, every single one of
us is taking a favorite. We're a bunch of chalk
eating weasels here, you guys, and I apologize for that,
but I am gonna lay it here with Texas Tech
as my best bet. I understand that Tech has got
(56:16):
some woes. Sometimes they tend to fall all over themselves
in that slow play and make mistakes, most notably against
Arizona in the Big twelve tournament. But overall, I have
been very impressed with this team. That's why I bet
them back in late January thirty to one to win
the whole thing, even though the defense is not as
(56:38):
top twenty five, right, that fits that metric to win
the whole thing. I thought, all right, we're gonna see
them start to clean it up again. They faltered against Arizona,
TCU Houston and then Arizona again down the stretch but
this is an Arkansas team with some well two outright
underdog wins. Kansas and Saint John's both teams that I
bet on. So why am I betting against Arkansas who's
(57:00):
covered eleven two and two in their last fifteen games.
And that's because I think they're kind of a farce.
They can't hit a three point shot to save their lives.
They're gonna want to play fast, and I think that's
gonna play right into Texas Tech's hands. We talked about
the slow teams earlier in Houston and whatever other slow
team Joe was talking about it now escapes my mind.
(57:22):
But that being said, Texas Tech is slow, they are methodical,
and I don't think they beat themselves here. They had
a really weird game against Drake coming off of that
outright win over Mazoo, but they got the cover for
us and Drake also a very slow playing team. So
these are like a clash of styles. But the Razorbacks
run comes to an end here. Sorry, guys, I know
(57:46):
the SEC fans and the mentions are not gonna like it.
I understand they do have a top defense, but they're
not going to get offensive rebounds and they're not going
to hit those shots and oh, by the way, when
they start fouling down the stretch, that's how Tech is
going to cover this five point. Yes, okay, guys, it's
been a fun season. Oh don't worry, we're going to
be back for the final four. All jokes aside, we're
(58:06):
not leaving you just yet. Good luck this week. Thank
you to Marco, Joe and Teddy. Of course, thanks to
Bill Krackenberger, Ralph Michaels, Andy Lang and Yanni Corrales. You
guys are the best for hanging out with me every
single week here on bet on It. Good Luck this
week and we'll see you for the Final four.
Welcome to bet on It Sweet sixteen edition. We're gonna
go through some of the Thursday and Friday games for
your betting pleasure. Let's get right into it. Marco DiAngelo,
Joe Vernieri, Teddy Covers. I am Kelly Stewart. Thursday night.
We'll call this the primetime game because it's past my
bedtime there on the East Coast. Arizona at nine, maybe
(00:21):
even nine and a half some spots in the Odds
logic screen Underdog versus Duke total one fifty three and
a half one fifty four. Marco DiAngelo, what say you.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Well, Kelly, I'm looking at this one in You know,
Arizona they went five and two down the stretch. They
did lose two games. Those two games that they lost, though,
if you look at them, one of them was the
final game of the regular season, really didn't mean anything.
They were at Kansas. Kansas needed a win, but Arizona
was coming off the game before at home they hung
(00:55):
one hundred and thirteen up on their in state rival,
Arizona State. So I think that was a mel in
game for Arizona. And their other loss, well, who was
that against? Well, I was against Houston in the conference tournament,
and Houston is a lot of people's choice to make
the final four. So this is a team that I
think is playing good basketball at the right time. They're
(01:17):
coming off a dog fight in their last game. Kelly,
if you remember when you and I did some of
my tournament tips, one of the things I like is
to take a team that come off of dog fight
in their previous game. Why well, because if they're in
another dog fight, you know that they can handle it.
They've had the pressure of every bucket being important down
the stretch. They're going to be playing a Duke team that,
(01:40):
let's be honest, they haven't had many type games. They've
rolled in their two tournament games, and as we know,
Duke is one of the best teams in the country,
if not the best, But they did come out of
a conference that wasn't deep, and as we saw, Duke's
the only one standing from that AC conference. We saw
(02:01):
the other three teams, the next three in that conference
all will make early exits in Clemson, Louisville, and North Carolina.
So if you look at it right now, the stock
can't be any higher on Duke, and I think it's
just a little bit too high. I think the value
is with Arizona, and that's where I'm gonna be. Arizona
played well their first year moving into the Big twelve,
(02:23):
They've played teams that go up tempo. I think they'll
be fine in this one. I think this goes down
to the wire. Give me the points with Arizona, Joe.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
I'm gonna mix this one up and three little curveball.
So my friends at the hard Rock posted this tweet. Right,
five dollars to win, I don't know, three hundred some thousand.
If Duke plus eleven hundred cashes, the other legs are
already in and I said, don't have the cash out button,
And of course that costs an issue. And I said,
just hedge. If you were the guy holding Duke eleven
(02:56):
to one, would you hedge as a nine and a
half point favorite against Arizona? And I say this as
somebody who had Florida minus nine and a half and
was in a sheer and utter panic up until the
last thirty seconds of that Yukon game.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Yes, I would. Now you know me, Hedging is for gardeners.
Don't believe in it, especially when you're dealing with the
team that's going to have the number one NBA pick
coming up that has, without adapt the best team. And
while yes, I get it, they played in the ACC,
which means they played a bunch of YMCA Rec League
teams this season here, but there is no denying that
(03:34):
this Dupe team is number one for a reason. And
you know, styles make fights here and you've got an
Arizona team who all year long has shown flashes of greatness,
but they have also struggled for as long as I
can remember. Against the better teams that they have played.
They beat up on the mediocre teams or the teams
(03:55):
that they are better than. Everything else is a struggle,
especially against some of the more elite squads that they
have faced. There is no better team that they will
have faced than the one they're about to here in Duke.
But instead of picking a side, I'm gonna go ahead
and look at this and go why in the world
we're talking about Every Duke game since the middle of
(04:18):
February that has had Cooper Flag in it has resulted
in eighty or more points for the Duke Blue Devils.
Now we've got an Arizona team that's gonna want to
push the pace to their detriment, by the way, is
what it's going to be. But they're gonna want to
push the pace. They're not nearly the quality defensive team,
(04:38):
not like what Duke is gonna bring to the table.
Duke also gets plenty of turnovers, and Duke is the
best free throw shooting team that remains in this tournament.
Arizona is going to be chasing Duke this entire game,
especially late. I say, just take the Duke team total
over eighty one to eighty one and a half here.
(05:00):
I don't see how the winner of this game is
going to have ninety points, and I think Duke will
eventually get there, but I'll take there over. I think
the value is in their team total. If it ain't broke,
why are we fixing it. It's not like Arizona's going
to try to slow this down and make it a
half court game. I think over the Duke team total
of eighty one eighty one and a half is the
(05:20):
way to go.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
Here, All right, Teddy cover Since Joe didn't want to bite,
if someone did want to hedge on their Duke ticket,
would you let it ride this round and wait till
the next or would you put a little bit on
Arizona money line.
Speaker 4 (05:36):
You want, I have to put something on Arizona money
line here because you can find it plus four hundred,
so you can risk a quarter of a unit to
win a unit you know, or depend on. I don't
know what the numbers are here, but obviously we're talking
about what a multi hundred thousand dollars payout with some
guy that's already hit a bunch of previous long shot
champions or plus price champions. In my mind, you have
(05:59):
a positive, extremely positive expectation scenario because you can get
a plus price on every team that Duke's going to
face through the final four and maybe even beyond depending
on who their opponents are. So absolutely, you know, don't
take the cash out option. You nail that part kel
one hundred percent and look for a plus four hundred
(06:21):
Arizona money line. And again at plus four hundred, you
don't need to make a big win, you know, but
win something either way. And when you're not making a
big bet to hedge, it allows you to hedge a
little bit more next time, and a little bit more
of the time after that, should you want to continue
that strategy. All that being said, I mean Duke's a
(06:41):
really hard team for me, all right. I haven't played
hon Or against Duke in the tournament. I don't know
if I played Honor against Duke all year. Why are
they so hard? Well, what do we look for? We
look for teams that offer value. Duke is the most
public team in basketball, in college basketball, the betting markets
haven't slept on how good they are. This is not
a value laden team any stretch of the imagination. But
(07:05):
fading Duke isn't easy either. I did. I played against
Duke once. I remember one time, and I got lucky.
I was catching plus twenty three and they lost by
twenty one or something like that. It wasn't a right
side by any stretch of the imagination, because Duke is
that good. So when you have a team that is
that good and then being priced like they're that good,
I tend not to get involved with them all that much.
(07:26):
All that being said, we have a previous meeting this year,
all right, where Arizona hosted Duke at the Michale Center
in Tucson, and boy, that game was all Duke. I
think it was sixty nine fifty five. Caleb Love completely
shut down in that game. Three of thirteen shooting, Cooper
Flag went nuts, Knupple had a big day and it
(07:49):
might have been what we could say the low point
of the season for Arizona. Tommy Lloyd after the games,
it was a tough night for me in the program,
and he promised to play. He pledged to figure out
quote why the pace aren't fitting together as he would
have liked. And obviously they had some injuries in early
season play. That's not the case anymore. Their bench was
(08:09):
unproductive early in the season. After the Duke came, we
saw Tommy Lloyd kind of solidify what his bench rotations
are for the rest of the year. And again you're
to talk about Carter Bryant, Henry Vaser, Anthony Delorso and
Tobyo Waka combined for two of seven shooting in the
(08:30):
first meeting when they beat Oregon on Sunday. That the
four some thirty two points on eleven of twenty two
from the floor. So Arizona's depth has gotten a whole
lot better. They've answered the questions that Duke kind of
gave them early in the season. It's a triple circle
game for Love, who obviously played all those years at
North Carolina I think the Wildcats are live dogs in
(08:51):
this one. Don't know they can win, but nine nine
and a half seems a little bit rich for this
better it's dogg or pass for.
Speaker 5 (08:57):
Me, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
I want to jump in and answer that question as
well as these other two guys danced around it. This
is an absolute no brainer. Okay, you're getting nine points
play one unit on Arizona plus the points. Okay, you
can win both bets. You don't have to lose Duke,
and you've got an insurance policy to get your original
(09:23):
bet back. Right. It's simple, that's I know, you know
Joe and the gardener joking at you got a chance
to win both bets. You're gonna do that every time.
If a guy wants to cash out, I'll take his
cash out price, I'll pay him, give it to me,
and I'll make my I'll make my money with the hedges.
(09:43):
Because if Duke does go all the way and wins,
you know, the remaining four games, you know, the two
this week and then the final four game in the
championship game, are you're gonna tell me they're going to
cover all four of them? You know, we saw Connecticut
do that last year and the bookmakers are making the
(10:04):
line high. They're not going to let that happen again.
Just hedge one unit every route on the dog plus
the points. Mail it in.
Speaker 1 (10:14):
Would you do a half on the points, half on
the money line, because like to me, now I get it,
he's a five dollars better. That's the argument, Kelly. He
bets five dollars. He doesn't have ten thousand dollars laying around,
And I'm like, I don't think you need to bet
ten grand. I think you could bet thirty five hundred.
Cut it in half, right, let's just for basic knowledge
to say three grand fifteen hundred on the plus nine
fifteen hundred on the money line, right, Like you're guaranteeing
(10:36):
yourself a profit. VR talks about this all the time
on Last Call with me. I also am like Joe,
where I'm like, you have a team at eleven to
one that is currently the favorite, that is going to
be a favorite the whole way through. You bet five
dollars because the map says you need to guarantee yourself
a profit. So anything over said five dollars is the
problem is everybody else is looking at that. I think
(10:57):
it's like forty eight or forty nine thousand dollars money
line cash out.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
But I'll also say it is cal I just listen again.
Styles make fights. Arizona's not beating Duke. I think the
chance to hedge is when Alabama plays Duke. I think
next week is when you have the better opportunity, because
I think that's when you have Duke who could actually lose. Outright,
if they're gonna lose at all, you're talking about a
(11:22):
team seventeen of their last twenty one wins have come
by ten points or more. They've already destroyed this Arizona team.
I don't see anything changing in this game. I think
Alabama is your best shot at Duke being up ended
in the hedge.
Speaker 6 (11:35):
All right, all right, if we're all gonna go in twice,
I want to jump in twice. So I'm gonna talk
about the difference between Marco's style of hedging versus my
style of heading.
Speaker 4 (11:46):
Marco wants to take the points and I'm going to
take the money. Lit Marco's style gives you the chance
to win both bets, which is a pretty big bonus.
If Duke wins not by margin, you can catch both sides. However,
you'll need to risk more to make the same amount.
The reason I prefer to do it on the money line.
(12:07):
I'm not trying for the little scores. I'm not trying
for the little hedges. I want the big score, and
I want to hedge as little as possible between now
and then. So I'm betting against myself on the money line. Yes,
but it's a smaller size bet because I'm getting a
four to one return. So it's just two different ways
of looking at the same problem. Marcos says, take the points,
you can catch them both, and I say take the
(12:27):
money line because I don't want to hedge off the
this incredible value, this incredible bet that I've already made.
Let's cash as much as we can.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
So just two ways of lot holding a Florida forty
to one. I want nothing more than for Duke to lose,
but I agree with Joe. I don't think this is
the spot for Duke to lose, So I would press
it again. I pressed it last week versus Yukon. I
was kind of kicking myself there for a better part
of two halves. But I'm gonna get it over here
at a VR because we're gonna mark see Marco's gonna
(12:58):
talk again.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Go ahead, Marco, Les Jelly, if you would have bet
Connecticut against Florida, you would have cashed the ticket plus
the points.
Speaker 4 (13:06):
Take the points.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Listen.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
The difference here is watch Marco eat a chicken wing
and watch Teddy do it, and you'll understand why Marco
wants to win both sides of the same bet.
Speaker 7 (13:18):
I get it.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
Marco is gluttnss and he wants to win all everything,
So I get it. Teddy is willing to hedge half
that chicken win now just to be still in the game.
Speaker 7 (13:28):
So there you go, Ken, love.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
It, love it, love it.
Speaker 1 (13:32):
Let's go talk to VR. You get some steam report
and to get away from this nonsense. You can catch
him on Last Call with me every single Saturday and
Sunday and of course Thursdays and Fridays during the NCAA tournament. VR.
Speaking of Thursdays and Fridays, we've got the Sweet sixteen
tomorrow and Friday, And like I do on Last Call,
I'm just gonna let you do your thing. We've got
(13:53):
eight games to go over. What have you seen from
your side of the counter.
Speaker 8 (13:58):
I'll go get through the meet kill and let you
know what I got a lot of action already, and
as I talked about throughout the tournament, a lot of
betters look to get ahead of these games by tying
in stuff earlier in the week, So they're parlaying CBI,
n NBA, NHL with what they already like for Thursday
and Friday. So it's already starting to stick out, and
(14:18):
the biggest thing that's sticking out is over over over over.
I don't see a single game that the recreational betters
have bet under yet, and because of that, you've seen
the betting sit gets get out ahead of some of
these overs. Keep in mind, though they may come back
game day, especially if the line gets jacked a little
too high, and come in on the under. A lot
(14:39):
of times that's their initial move. They want to bet
the under, but knowing public money outweighs sharp money, especially
when you get to the sweet sixteen, the lead eight,
Final four championship game. That many times they'll get a
better number by sitting back, And even though it's a
zero sum game and another group may come in and
take that under at a decent number, alls it's doing
is eliminating some of the book's risk, but not enough
(15:02):
of it that they're going to adjust it significantly so
many times. By waiting, they'll be able to get a
much better number of coming under later in the week,
So keep your eyes on that. Just check Odd's logic,
you'll see exactly what I'm talking about. We'll start off
with Duke Arizona. This is the number one verse, number
four over money immediately from the groups at one fifty
(15:22):
two and one fifty three. But here's one of those spots.
When he got the one fifty four, you saw some
resistance on the under. So it looks like a game
that the sharp betters want to bet under, just looking
for a higher total than the opener was. All the
money's coming on Duke seven out of ten bets already,
if not eight out of ten bets, and.
Speaker 7 (15:40):
The over as well BYU Alabama.
Speaker 8 (15:43):
It's about sixty percent on Alabama, what you'd expect from
a minus four, minus four and a half five type
of favorite. But the over is what got bet at
one seventy three and one seventy four. Another one where
at one seventy six you saw resistance. So again once
the line moved that significantly, you did get sharp money
on the under. But here's one where nine out of
(16:05):
ten bets if higher than that, even if you could
get higher than that, are on the over from the
recreational betters. They love BYU Alabama over. It's probably the
highest total on the board. I think in the sweet
sixteen Arkansas Texas tech over money again groups got out
laying the one forty six going over one forty seven.
Not much on the side. This is one where you're
(16:27):
getting a little more Arkansas money. Arkansas's also getting a
little money line action as well from the recreational betters.
They're taking the points and they're also taking the money
line on Arkansas, Maryland and Florida. This is one of
the lowest number one verse number fours because you got
Duke Arizona and you got Houston vers Purdue. Both of
those are number one verse number four, but with lines
(16:49):
of minus eight minus nine, this one's a lot tighter.
Not surprisingly, Maryland, most power ratings have them as a
top fifteen team. Some guys have them as close as
top ten, and I think that's why you're seeing a
much shorter number. But they laid the minus five on
the Florida side, getting out ahead of the public because
that's getting eight plus out of ten.
Speaker 7 (17:11):
Bets already and the money on Florida.
Speaker 8 (17:13):
As well as the over seven out of ten, eight
out of ten on the over also, but what did
we see on Tuesday when the line was seven? They
blasted Maryland Maryland plus seven hit by multiple groups, pushing.
Speaker 7 (17:25):
That back down.
Speaker 8 (17:26):
So you probably minus six right now if you look
at the board on Florida, which you know it got
steamed earlier in the week. Move on the Friday, Michigan
Auburn one verse five, Michigan getting some money. Also another
dog that seems to be live according to the public,
and the over is about sixty forty, which is what
you'd expect. The biases always towards the over, but this
one looks legit because you did get the betting sin
(17:48):
against that laid over fifty one over fifty two, came
back and went over fifty two.
Speaker 7 (17:52):
And a half as well.
Speaker 8 (17:54):
That's why you're looking at that higher total. But it's
pretty balanced from the recreational betters. And again Auburn god
hit at minus seven and a half, also got hit
at minus eight last night.
Speaker 7 (18:06):
I believe that happened then.
Speaker 8 (18:07):
Mississippi, Michigan State, Michigan State money another about sixty forty
a little less than that. This one isn't as heavily
bet as the other games. Same thing with the total
a little bias sixty forty, so you got favored and
over about sixty forty what you get on most games.
That's the bias of the public. The initial move was
on Mississippi. The Mississippi at plus four got bet. Got
(18:31):
a little under plus three and a half as well,
But if you looked at the screen, you'll see Michigan
State came in and got hit and minus two and
a half money line, minus three and money line, So
Michigan State at three or better definitely the sharp side there.
Purdue Houston another one sided game, a number one, no surprise.
(18:52):
Nine out of ten tickets are on Houston. The overs
a little more balanced, about sixty forty. Again, that's what
you expect. That's not like saying it's you know, public
money's on the over, because you expect that bias.
Speaker 7 (19:03):
More towards the over.
Speaker 8 (19:05):
But this is one of the few unders that got
hit early at under one thirty three and a half.
Nothing the report on the side there, it seems like
it's going to be the public versus the sportsbooks unless
you get some sharp money getting involved between now and
tip off. But so far it's just been eighty plus
percent of the Houston money from the public and being
(19:27):
tied into early parlays, Houston money line and Houston minus
the points, and finally Kentucky Tennessee two versus a three.
But you have a spread that opened about five and
a half and Kentucky money came in at plus five
and a half, at plus five all the way to
plus four and a half. One of the groups I
worked with took the plus four and a half. Then
(19:47):
last night was four across the board. That's when you
saw Tennessee money come in. So if you agree with
the early sharp money, you could still get pretty much
the first and second number that they got down on.
Speaker 7 (19:59):
And this is another other rarity.
Speaker 8 (20:01):
Where bettings think gets weren't wait and see if the
public's going to bet it up. They went under immediately
under one forty seven, under one forty six and a
half all the way to under one forty five and
a half, even though it's another spot where about sixty
forty towards the over, so real quickly the three that
stick out the most, no surprise, it's the number one teams, Duke, Florida,
(20:24):
and Houston, all three not only being tied up in
all kinds of parlays ats, but money line parlays. Those
three are tied into a ton of money line parlays.
Three team money line parlay. One of those teams go
down on the money line, it's gonna be a great
day for the book. It's gonna wipe out so many parlays,
(20:45):
so much of the risk from parlays. If one of
those teams or two of them go down ATS, it'll
be another phenomenal day for the books, will wipe out
a ton of the risk. Got to remember, recreational betters
don't care about negative v bets.
Speaker 7 (20:58):
They are teasing.
Speaker 8 (20:59):
They're using the teaser to get these teams down, to
get Arizona down, to get Florida down, to get duked down.
So they're ats in it, money lining it, and teasing
it every possible way. They want money on the three
number one teams that are standing right now going into
the action. It's Florida that's not getting I mean, Florida
is getting it. It's the where's that other number one? No,
(21:22):
it's those three that are getting all the money. Yeah,
those three are getting all Auburn. Auburn's the number one
that's not getting much love. Like I said a little
more on Michigan, which is kind of surprising, but Auburn's
getting the least amount of love from the betting public.
In fact, it's not being used as a money line parlay.
It's those three that they're tying in even with other
(21:43):
teams before they.
Speaker 7 (21:44):
Do it with Auburn. So I got Auburn as a
future So it's a good sign for me.
Speaker 1 (21:49):
Yeah, it is a good sign for you. And after
Florida had their scare there against yukon the other day,
does not make me feel good as a Florida better
VR question. So right now, i've Florida at forty to one.
If they were to beat Maryland and Texas Tech beats Arkansas,
they end up playing each other. So there's kind of
a hedge if you will, built in there, right because
(22:10):
they're going to play each other. But would you hedge
either one of those plays going into the Sweet sixteen?
I mean both of them. Our favorites headed into the
Elite eight favorites have done very well in this tournament,
maybe not always against the spread, but definitely winning out right.
As you mentioned with those moneyline parlays.
Speaker 8 (22:27):
Florida is about seven eight points better than Texas Tech, So.
Speaker 7 (22:31):
You have both pending. Yes, I let them ride. You
got a number one, you got a number one there,
and you got a number three sneaking in. Let that go.
You let that go because you have you got decent.
Speaker 4 (22:44):
Numbers on them.
Speaker 7 (22:46):
Yeah, and just watching and let them play out. Let
them play out.
Speaker 8 (22:52):
You placed a good bed early on, and then revisit it,
revisit it after the weekend. Hopefully you know you're still alive,
You're still standing. One's going to be there. I'm pretty
sure of it. It's almost definite. See which one's alive.
But I think you're good.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
I would just let it go. I would just let
it go, all.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Right, VR, giving me that push to not be a wuss.
I always appreciate it. Greek Underscore Gambler on all your
social channels, Greek Underscore Gambler seven over on TikTok. He
does a great job over there as well. VR. I'm
gonna see you tomorrow morning, last Ball, Thursday, Friday, Saturday
and Sunday with you. I cannot wait our special guests
from last week's episode is back this week. Bill Krackenberger
(23:32):
newer to wager talk dot com. He has had a
very great start to joining us, and he is here
to give you a best bet for the Sweet sixteen.
Speaker 5 (23:41):
Hey, kel, how about this after going like zero to
five on Friday, which with every other gambling syndicate in
the world at every other sharp, I don't know how
I'm ahead like seven units, but I am still. You know,
it's all about bank roll management and playing more. You know,
I usually go one two units on games on the
strength of it, So you know it's going to be
(24:04):
a very profitable time of the year and everything. I
can't wait till baseball comes. I can't wait until preseason football.
You guys will see. So, uh, it's been about a
year and a half by the way of Kelly and
Johnny and Pres all these wooing me over Marco at
dinner and uh yeah, so I'm glad to be over
here with you guys. So this week we have you know,
(24:27):
once it gets deeper and deeper, uh to hit that
final four gets tougher and tougher, The market gets more
much more efficient. So I have a couple of games
that I want to talk about real quick, nothing crazy again.
Bank roll management means everything here, and uh, you know,
just betting, you know some someone just because the games
on TV and it's the last game of the day.
(24:48):
There's no reason to just fire on everything. But I
want to give you Arkansas Texas Tech. Uh, this should
be an exciting game. The highest seated team left as
the hen seed Arkansas taking on this ree seed Texas Tech.
First of all, I know a lot of people don't
like Kyler Parry. Everyone doesn't like people successful. Though. I
(25:10):
think Cali Perry will have Arkansas and the team ready here.
They're gonna speed the game up, probably put a lot
of pressure on Texas Tech. And you know, Texas Tech
doesn't turn the ball over as much as you you know,
as much as you see some of these you might
just see some quick and easy buckets right out of
the gate here. So I'm looking for maybe some points
(25:33):
in this game. Also, this is one of those tournament
games that you have a chance at a foul fest
towards the end of the game. If it's a five, six, seven,
eight point game under a minute, you may see another
dozen points here. You know, these fouls It's amazing what
happens at the end of these games. It's the reason
why when I met my Unders, I like the bet
Unders first half, so you stay away from the foul fest.
Speaker 4 (25:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (25:58):
So the other game I'll get into real quick is
is Kentucky Tennessee. It's rare to see conference foes head
to head in the Sweet sixteen, but this is what
you get when you have fourteen teams from one conference.
Seven of the fourteen in the SECS. He's still still available,
still out there, Kentucky Tennessee go head to head in Indianapolis.
(26:22):
I love to watch as it gets deeper and deeper.
I love to watch now that most of the Cinderella's
are really gone. This is the Kentucky team that can
beat anyone when they're playing their best though. They're one
of the three teams that can beat Duke. I'll just
tell you in my opinion, and they've already beating Tennessee
twice this year, once when Lamar Butler got hurt and
(26:47):
once when he didn't even play. So as long as
he can stay healthy in this game, I think Kentucky
has a real chance, maybe even to take it out right.
But I see the lines like four and a half everywhere,
but you know, I like to buy it at the five.
But wait until Leaven closer to the game time. You
may get some favorite money here, so you may get that.
You may get that five. So there's a couple of
(27:08):
games for you. Nothing crazy, everyone enjoy relax and you
know the weather broke out here. It's eighty eight degrees
in Vegas. I'm looking forward to get outside and a
little bit today and looking forward to these games, the
Sweet sixteen and then the big weekend.
Speaker 1 (27:24):
Absolutely crack. I'll be there in a couple of weeks
for the National Championship Game. I hope to see you
there before we.
Speaker 3 (27:30):
Let you go.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
Can you tell everybody about your baseball? Patnage, you have
a overtwager talk dot com.
Speaker 5 (27:36):
You know baseball. Even though I grew up on baseball
and it's my favorite thing to watch, there's nothing like
you know, we can't do it yet here in Vegas,
but if the A's come here, it's gonna be great
for everybody. The road teams that come in, all the fans,
just like the Raiders, but the Raiders only get to
do it eight times a year, so they're gonna do
it eighty times a year for baseball. Like I said,
(27:56):
I grew up on baseball. Absolutely love it. Nothing like
going to Peck, going Sandy Diego watching the game. I
love doing that. And you know, baseball is literally one
of my really good sports. I've done very well at
it since I started my service, and like I said,
it's something I grew up on. But however, I know
for a fact a lot of the sports books they
(28:17):
love baseball, love it because they make more money than NFL.
That's right, they make more money than the NFL season
because it's every day, one hundred and sixty two games.
I mean, the sportsbooks love it. That's why you have
to make sure you have multiple outs for baseball. Living
in this town, when I first moved here twenty some
years ago, every single spot had ten cent lines. What
(28:38):
that means is minus a dollar twenty, come back a
dollar ten. Now we only have certain spots that have
that ten cent line, and then we have breakoffs that
teams that break at a dollar fifty come back one
thirty five.
Speaker 4 (28:49):
And so forth.
Speaker 5 (28:50):
So the idea is to have lots of places to
bet at. It's very important. I can still play very
close to no big baseball, because I do have all
these spots in town, the places that threw me out
for winning, like stations. You know, they they have decent lines.
So I'm gonna even though you guys threw me out,
I'm gonna tell the customers and the fans make sure
(29:11):
you have stations. William Hill, they threw me out too
over winning. Uh but uh Westgates, I mean point they.
Speaker 1 (29:18):
Threw both of those places threw me out. So like,
I really expect you to not be able to bet
there as well.
Speaker 5 (29:24):
Yeah yeah, So I look forward to it and have
some fun and join us over here. A way to
talk nice.
Speaker 1 (29:29):
Thanks cal absolutely crack. We will see you here in
about a week and a half. Good luck for the
Sweet sixteen. All right, let's get into the Friday primetime
game ten to oh nine Eastern. I'm gonna take the
over on that star time. By the way, Purdue versus Houston.
They are an eight point underdog total one thirty two. Teddy,
I'm gonna start off with you, Calvin Sampson. Houston. They've
(29:51):
done a really good job this year. I know Purdue's
kind of been one of those wishy, washy teams, not
a team that I really want to back here, especially
as an underdog. Better. I have a ten to one
future on Houston And no, I'm not going to ask
you about hedging it.
Speaker 4 (30:07):
No, and Houston's one I might not hedge in this game. Look,
Perdue has been in the Sweet sixteen. This is six
times and eight years for Purdue in the Sweet sixteen.
You know, they had a great weekend in Providence. That
being said, who did they beat? They beat High Point
and McNee State. And McNee State, by the way, was
hungover after beating Clemson in the first round. It was
(30:30):
not a good game for them at all. So I
don't know that any team had it easier to get
here than Perdue. To reach the Sweet sixteen. They got
the right team to the right time. And you know
we've seen Perdue the last couple times underdogs. Well, let's see,
they haven't won. Illinois beat them, Michigan beatam Michigan State
beat him, and Houston's real all right, The Koogs are
(30:54):
as the lade as the lead gets. This team's won
thirty games five times in the last six seasons. All right.
They're the best defensive team in the country, number one
in points allowed per game. What number five and opponents
field goal percentage. And it's not just defensively that Houston
has been able to dominate. They're really good from three
(31:16):
point range. Obviously, they're a really good shot blocking team.
And they don't turn the ball over, just six in
the country when it comes to turn of rate nine
point two turnovers per game. Some of that has to
do with the fact that they play at a slower pace.
But when you have a team that plays defense, takes
care of the basketball, and hits three point shots, that's
(31:38):
a recipe for going a long, long way in this tournament.
Here's the only lost four games all year. Three of
those losses came in overtime. The other came by five
against Auburn in the second game of the season. Now,
I do worry. This is basically a home game for Perdue,
what an hour away from their campus, So Houston with
a disadvantage in that regard, But that's also keeping this
(32:00):
price down. I think the Coops are the superior team
if I'm playing I'm laying.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Kelly all right, Joe Ranieri Teddy mentioned the dichotomy of
some of these teams that like to play fast versus
some of these teams that like to play slow talk
to me about this breakdown with the boiler Makers and Houston.
Like I said, I've got Houston ten to one in
pocket with our good friend John Murray from the Kelly
and Murray Show. Shout out to our audience for at
least getting us to the Sweet sixteen. Thoughts on this
(32:29):
one and how Houston can exploit Purdue at least from
a size advantage.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
Well, it's yeah, Well I think we also have to
keep in mind, I mean Teddy's right, Houston is like
watching pain try their number three hundred and fifty ninth
in pace according to Ken Palm in the country. But
don't mistake it, Purdue is not running up and down
the court. They're not Arizona right there. They're not going
to want to be running and scoring their number two
(32:57):
hundred and ninety eighth in Ken Palms pay statistics. So
given the fact that with Purdue it becomes very hit
or miss sometimes with whether or not they're hitting their
shots right, But the reality is Houston can suffocate and
has suffocated quality offenses like Purdues all year long. I
(33:20):
also don't think now.
Speaker 7 (33:21):
Purdue doesn't turn.
Speaker 3 (33:22):
A ball over a whole lot so I don't know
that Houston's going to be able to take advantage like
they do against teams that are a little bit more
lack of days ago with the with the handling of
the ball, specially in transition. But the reality is they're
not going to get a ton of second chance points here.
They're going They're not very good against the rebounding anyway.
(33:42):
They're certainly not going to dominate Houston on the boards here.
So I thought the under was the way to look here.
I saw it at one thirty three, one thirty three
and a half. I think it's down to one thirty
two and a half. And I agree with the move here.
Speaker 7 (33:56):
I've got two.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Teams that aren't in a rush to do anything. I
do think that all the points Purdue get they're gonna
have to earn. But this is a different animal Houston
defensively than what Purdue has played. Again, Purdue offensively has
shown an ability to be able to shoot guys out
of the gym. I don't see that happening here. I
(34:18):
think this game is played in the low sixties. I
think this stay is way under. I don't think we
get to one hundred and thirty. I think the under
is the way to look here.
Speaker 1 (34:27):
Marco, first glance, I completely agree with Joe here on
the under. But as we know, this first couple of
rounds has been over City and both of these teams
are excellent three point shooting teams. So that worries me
just a bit.
Speaker 2 (34:43):
Yeah, it does. It is a low number, and they've
adjusted it accordingly because of the way Houston has played
defense this year. For me, I'm gonna, you know, piggyback
on what Teddy had said. You know, yeah, there's no
question Purdue has had the easiest path to this S
Week sixteen, and they caught the major break whenever McNee
(35:04):
upset Clemson. But on the flip side to that, Houston,
for being as high of a seed as they are,
they drew a tough assignment in their last game. Gonzaga
was playing good basketball at the end of the season. Gonzaga,
you know, came through the West Coast Tournament. They beat
Saint Mary's, another team that was in the tournament in
(35:27):
you know, won their first game, lost their second game.
But the difference in that Gonzaga game, you know, they
had to battle and they had to do everything, and
if you look at the stats from that game, the
fact that they were able to still come out of
that game victorious. Gonzaga shot fifty percent for the game,
forty from three point range, and they were fifteen to
(35:49):
fifteen from the foul line. Gonzaga couldn't do anything more
in that game and they still lost the game. That
is going to be bad news for Purdue because I
don't think Purdue is going to have success against this
defense of Houston. Houston's holding opponents to thirty eight percent
shooting this year a big difference between the two defenses.
(36:09):
I think they get the job done. The other part
of it is you look at this Houston team, and yes,
we know Purdue has been to the tournament how many times,
has had success, but I don't think this year's team
is as good as the teams we've seen in the past.
Whereas this Houston team they've had success too. I think
this is the best edition we've seen of them. And
(36:31):
when you get and look at their top eight scorers,
four of their top eight scorers are seniors in this game,
including starting guard and leading scorer L. J.
Speaker 7 (36:43):
Cryer.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
I just think Houston has too many weapons. Purdue may
hang around for a while. But this one is they're
going to pull away in the second half. I like Houston.
They move on to the next round.
Speaker 1 (36:57):
Well note for programming, Houston's been one of the best
first teams over the last couple of years. That's what
I've got circled for this one. Let's go hang out
with the proptologist Andy Lang and see what he's got
for us as a best bet. The Proptologist Andy Lang.
The doctor is in, except he's not wearing his lab coat,
(37:17):
and everybody in the comments wants to know how the
hell some drunken high school kid wrote a shopping cart
into your pond. At least that's my theory.
Speaker 7 (37:26):
I don't know.
Speaker 9 (37:27):
The wind couldn't have blown it in there, like you
have to work to get it in there, and it
is at the bottom of a hill.
Speaker 5 (37:33):
There had to be a lie.
Speaker 1 (37:34):
I think you just write it down the hill like.
It's not like it made it up the hill magically,
like somebody was probably riding in a jackass style, a
couple too many beers.
Speaker 7 (37:43):
No, it's cold, it's just the water is still cold.
Speaker 1 (37:47):
But what would you go flying into the water like that?
I don't know. Why do people do the polar Bear plunge.
They just do people do dumb things, especially when alcohol
is involved. That's my theory. Maybe you'll get an answer
one day. If you guys miss Andy's TikTok slash Instagram,
it's pretty funny. Go over to his page at andy
(38:07):
Langbats and you guys can see what the heck we're
talking about. But today we were talking about March madness,
and you have a best prop bet for us up
right now at wagertalk dot com. Nice special as well.
Tell me about that first well special.
Speaker 9 (38:23):
We're calling it warm Weather and Hotter bank rolls. It's
warming up, Kelly, and we need to do a three
month special. Went back and looked, did a little deep
dive into our profits, and in the last seventeen months
we have been profitable in fourteen out of those seventeen months.
So getting a month special is really good. But what
Tiba better is getting a three month special. We're up
ninety three units in twenty twenty three, one hundred and
(38:45):
twenty seven units in twenty twenty four. We're up sixty
five units early in twenty twenty five, so we are
often running and we turned a profit in January. In
February and March. We're batting one hundred percent on that,
so you can get an instant disc out down to
five forty nine on that special over at wager Talk
WT dot bus slash al, these are bets that we
(39:06):
bet with our own money. This or plays that we
bet with our own bankrolls. And this is how we've
taken small bankrolls and made them into big ones. He
can get three months thirty percent discount. WT dot buzz
slash al.
Speaker 1 (39:17):
Love to hear that. Let me know why you laughed.
I logged in to film this segment and you started
laughing when the graphic went up. Cooper Flag twenty one
and a half points that laughable?
Speaker 5 (39:29):
Huh.
Speaker 9 (39:30):
Well, I just don't know where they get this number for, Like,
can I just see him get over this number?
Speaker 7 (39:37):
Please?
Speaker 1 (39:37):
Can I just can I just watch it once before I.
Speaker 9 (39:40):
Buy into this Listen, Kelly, nobody likes paying taxes, but
nobody likes paying a Cooper Flag tax, which is what
you're getting here. He's gone under ten out of the
last eleven games. The two games since return from injury,
he's only had twelve and eleven shot attempts. He's only
made one three pointer in each game. I just don't
see where this number comes from. Zone is not great defensively.
(40:01):
They give up a lot of points to guards and forwards,
but Duke is just loaded. They have three guys averaging
over twelve and a half points, and they have seven
guys averaging over five points. This is you know, Cooper
Flag gets all the headlines, but he's not the only
guy that can score on this team. This is just
wildly inflated. Twenty one and a half. I would play
it under twenty and a half. I just don't think
(40:21):
that they're going to need him to go ballistic. They're
too complete of a team. So give me the under
on Cooper Flag's points.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
All right, the proptologist is always here giving you that prescription.
He didn't even bring any of the props.
Speaker 7 (40:35):
It's only for NFL.
Speaker 9 (40:36):
It was there was an NFL thing. I feel more
comfortable when I'm working from.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
No more telehealth. Get the hell out of here, Andy Lang.
We appreciate you. Cooper Flag under twenty one and a
half points. And these glasses, of course mean one thing,
and one thing only. It's time for TNA. Rob Michaels
in another off this week. Shout out to Marco D'Angelo.
For you're letting Ralph hang out there in Vegas. It's
always a good time to be back, Ralph. I'll be
(41:07):
back there unvisually. I'm gonna miss you, but you know what,
I'm not gonna miss this week's t NA. We've got
some systems for round three, We've got some systems for
round four aka the Elite eight as well. Break them
down for me, and then of course leave our audience
with your best bet.
Speaker 10 (41:23):
Okay, let's remember this, Round one has twice the volume
of round two. Round two has twice the volume of
round three. So as we progress, the sample size gets
smaller and smaller, which makes the trends less relative.
Speaker 5 (41:37):
But I do want to.
Speaker 10 (41:38):
Share the numbers with you round three, some situations, and
then round four as well before I get to my
best bet. So I went back to twenty sixteen. Guys,
if you blindly bet every favorite since twenty and sixteen
and round three, you've gone twenty one and thirty with
some pushes forty one point two percent, so the dogs
(41:59):
are very solid fifth eight percent. How about the totals, well,
Round three totals twenty overs, thirty three unders. That is
sixty two point three percent to the under, so very
easy to say that lean dogs, lean unders. How about
round three? If teams are awful win as a dog,
(42:20):
straight up win as a dog ats in round three,
they're twenty two and twenty fifty two percent over under
nineteen and twenty four forty four percent, so no real
trends in that situation. If they are off back to
back wins as a dog like Mississippi and Arkansas, those
teams twelve and six against the spread sixty seven percent,
(42:41):
five overs, thirteen unders. That is seventy three percent to
the under. And finally, how have number one seeds done
in round three? They've gone eighteen and twelve with couple pushes,
sixty percent against the spread, and when roundt when round
when number one seeds play in round three, they are
thirteen and eighteen over under forty one point nine percent.
(43:04):
So those were all round three. Let me go through
the exact same data in round four. I'll go through
it a little quicker. Favorites in round four eighteen and
twenty five forty two percent against the spread over under
in round four forty point nine percent to the over,
so fifty one point excuse me, fifty eight point one
(43:26):
percent to the under.
Speaker 7 (43:28):
Off a win is a dog.
Speaker 10 (43:29):
In round four, you're twenty and eleven against the spread
sixty four point five percent. You're thirteen and nineteen forty
one percent over under. If you're off a win back
to back games is a dog nine and three against
the spread, five and seven over under, and number one
seeds in round four twelve and ten against the spread,
seven and sixteen over under. So just some numbers to remember.
(43:51):
You're not going to base a play on it, but
it is important to know what's happened in the past
to see if it continues on in the future.
Speaker 1 (43:58):
All right, round, before you give me your best bet
for the Sweet sixteen, please let me know you've got
going on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 10 (44:06):
Well, you know, we're looking at loading some plays. I
have yet to load one yet. I don't see a
five percent in this round. We'll see what happens moving
into the Elite eight. So just make sure you check
out my package and excited at baseball starting and having
a great NHL season and college basketball as well. Nice
current run of sixty four percent my last thirty nine plays. Overall,
(44:27):
my best bet. I'm gonna look at a Friday game.
Cal Well, remember I started a segment by saying thirty
seven point three percent of every game has.
Speaker 2 (44:35):
Gone over the total in round one. That means over
sixty two percent have gone under.
Speaker 10 (44:40):
I'm looking at Michigan State and Old Miss under the
total on Friday. Michigan State comes in with a temple
of number one seventy. Old Miss comes in with the
temple of one thirty one. So both are slightly above
the five hundred or below the median mark in tempo.
Speaker 7 (44:58):
So we have two teams.
Speaker 10 (45:00):
Either are fast, neither are horribly slow. Michigan State does
not turn the ball over. They're number one thirty eight.
Michigan State does not force turnovers. They're number two forty five.
And Michigan State also does not shoot threes. In fact,
they're number three hundred and fifty six in the country
in percentage of points that come from threes. And oh yeah,
by the way, they're number three hundred and twenty three
(45:21):
in three point shooting percentage. Old Miss tempo again, number
one thirty one. They don't turn the ball over at all.
They're number three in the country with the fewest number
of turnovers and they don't shoot a huge amount of threes.
They're number one hundred and fifty eight in the percentage
of three point shots, and they're number one hundred and
twenty two in three point shooting percentage, but the equalizer
(45:44):
there Michigan State the number one best three point defense
in the country this season. Finally, if a team like
Michigan State is off back to back ATS wins in
round three and later, they've gone under the toe total
sixty one point five percent. If the opponent is also
(46:04):
off an ATS win, the under has gone under sixty
four percent, and in that situation, with a total under
one sixty the under is sixty seven percent. Michigan State
eleven and twenty four over under this season, Michigan State
is a favorite of UH two or more with a
total under one fifty one. How about four and thirteen
(46:27):
over under With six straight unders the last six games
added up a Friday best bet Michigan State Old miss
under the total.
Speaker 1 (46:37):
An under for the Sweet sixteen. At cal Sports LV
is where you guys can follow Ralph. He's pretty famous
on TikTok, at least on the wager talk TikTok. That
is all right, guys, We're gonna get out of here,
but first we got to give you some of those
best bets. It's the moment you've all been waiting for.
The best bets for the Sweet sixteen are here. We're
gonna start off with Joe Venieri, mainly because, oh well,
(47:00):
he's telling me I don't need to hedge my Florida
forty to one ticket.
Speaker 3 (47:04):
I'm not hedging the Florida fourteen to one ticket. So
there is absolutely no reason for us to go there. Again,
not the opportunity to hedge if you're holding future tickets
on teams.
Speaker 4 (47:16):
Like either Duke and or Florida.
Speaker 3 (47:19):
Here. Listen this number six, six and a half right now,
and there's a couple of reasons why I think Florida absolutely.
Speaker 5 (47:29):
Wins this game by double digits.
Speaker 2 (47:31):
Here.
Speaker 3 (47:32):
The depth number one in this game is a huge mismatch.
Maryland one of the best starting fives in the country.
Arguments could be made it is one of the best
starting fives, but I can also point out that their
bench is one of the worst in the country. Here,
so they live or die with the five guys that
they roll out there each and every game. The Gators
(47:55):
have more big bodies to be able to throw at
Reese and than most teams ever Will or any team
in fact that Maryland has played to this point. Listen,
you can walk with the ball Derrek Queen all you
want and bank it off and win a shot in
a game that, quite honestly, you got out played. And
(48:15):
here's another big point, Cal out coach that entire damn
game Nico Medven made will. It looked like an absolute
fool most of that game there. Colorado State should have
won that game, but unfortunately Maryland made the bucket when
it mattered the most. Now they're gonna take on a
totally different animal, a Gator team, and quite honestly, cal
(48:39):
I am so happy that the Gators got pushed in
that game against Yukon, two time defending champions. Anybody thought
that the Gators or that Yukon was just gonna somehow
roll over and the Gators are gonna run them over
has not been paying attention here. I love the fact
that the Gators back was against the wall. I love
that they went to who they can go to all
(49:01):
the time. Every guy on this team. The depth is huge.
Any one particular guy, including of course they're all American
point guard who is you know, the guy that we
know when the game is on the line is going
to take control here. But it's the bigs in this game,
the depth of Florida and the shooting. I think, quite honestly,
(49:23):
what in the world is Maryland going to do when
all of a sudden Derrek Queen or Jullian Reeser and
foul trouble in the second half with six seven minutes
to go. They're never grabbing another rebound. They've got problems
when they have to go to that bench. And if
it's a tight whistle. I like Florida even more by
double digits here. I think Florida was pushed. I think
(49:46):
they dug deep, they understand what it takes, and I
think they roll this Maryland team this weekend. And then
it's a matter of whether or not you think hedging
against Texas Tech is going.
Speaker 4 (49:58):
To be the right move.
Speaker 1 (50:00):
I got Texas Tech thirty to one. Not when I
get to sit back and relax, this is here right now.
I like you said, I got the scare out of
the way, and I'm talking like went to home depot,
the game tipped off, the game looked good, came home,
all hell started breaking loose. I was like, do I
go back to home depot?
Speaker 5 (50:20):
Like, what do I? What do I do?
Speaker 1 (50:21):
If I went over to the neighbor's house. Big Gator
fan Brett walked in the door to watch the second
half the game with this, I kicked Tim out. I
was like, you have to go. It has nailed a
three as you walk in it. It was just a
really anyway, snay, long story story. I'm going to the
neighbor's house tomorrow night to watch the game. It's gonna
be a great time. Marco DiAngelo, You're taking the team
that nobody's talking about. It seems like everybody has written
(50:43):
them off for dead.
Speaker 4 (50:46):
They have.
Speaker 2 (50:46):
And you know, Auburn, they entered the tournament losing three
of their last four, and people wanted, you know, to
look at that with one of those losses coming to
Texas A and M. Oh, Texas A and M. Didn't
Michigan just beat Texas A and M. How many people
are gonna do the old ABC comparison there and say, well,
look at that, Oh, Michigan just beat Texas A and M,
(51:08):
and Auburn lost to them. Hey, just pump the brakes.
When Auburn lost to Texas A and M. They were
coming off a blowout win at Kentucky the game before
is Oh, who did they have on deck? Yeah, there
are Tribal Alabama and that was a big sandwich spot
late in the year, so right that went off. I
(51:29):
hope everybody makes the comparison to Texas A and M game,
because that's gonna be fine for me and give me
a little line value. This is an Auburn team that
went thirty and four in the best conference in college basketball.
Auburn has seven different players who average twenty minutes or
more per game. Six of those players are seniors. Five
(51:51):
of them average double digits. They've got balanced scoring, they
don't turn the football or football basketball over. Second in
adjusted offensive efficiency, twelfth in defensive efficiency. This is a
complete team. They've been there all year. I like them here.
They hold teams three point shooting just twenty nine percent.
(52:14):
I just don't see Michigan. They came out of the
Big Ten. Yeah, the Big Ten wasn't as bad as
the ACC, no question about that. But how many times
this year did we watch a Michigan game and they
were life and death to get the win. They found
a way to win it, but they were life and death,
and to be honest with you, they should have lost
(52:35):
to Uce San Diego. The coaching at the end of
that game just absolutely wanted me to pull out what
little hair I have left. They got the win, they
moved on. It ends for Michigan. Here, take Auburn, lay
the points in this one, and if you have any
Auburn futures, you don't have to do any hetching.
Speaker 1 (52:52):
Kelly, All right, now that that has been the entire
topic of this show, Teddy covers This is a game
that I've been asked to talk about our good friends
over at out Kick, our big SEC fans, and we
have an SEC matchup in the Sweet sixteen, And honestly,
I'm just gonna steal your cliff notes because I don't
know what to make of this game. These guys did
(53:14):
not play three times in the regular season, as we
know that sometimes people do in the SEC tournament, but
for two SEC teams to be playing each other in
the Sweet sixteen is unheard of. I text off Michaels
I said, is there any data to back this up?
He said, yeah, we got one game sample size from
twenty eighteen the Ohio Bobcats, And I'm like, thanks, but
Kentucky did win both regular season games against them. Now
(53:36):
Tennessee is a favorite. Here's my problem with the balls.
I feel like I cannot get two halves from them.
I either get a great first half or a great
second half, so third down and half. I'll be looking
at them at halftime. But you like them for the
full game? Here, why do you trust this team?
Speaker 5 (53:50):
So?
Speaker 4 (53:51):
I don't think there's in the comparison between Tennessee and
Kentucky showing out for the goals for these two teams
this year, you know, I mean the Sweet sixteen is
a dream a dream season for Kentucky considering where Mark
Pope started, where they bring a nine transfers, everybody left.
I mean it was a complete rebuild job. Kyli Pari
gone empty roster, whereas Tennessee is you know, they got
(54:14):
Final four talent and they're not surprised to be here.
And the fact that Rick Barnes was able to win
and cover a game in the round of thirty two
where he'd been zero to seven ats in his previous
seven dries tells us that this Tennessee team is legit.
Now the guard play here is key, all right. We
had two regular season meetings between these two teams, and
(54:36):
Kentucky's guards dominated both games defensively. Now we've got three
seniors in the backcourt for Tennessee, got Chanslamir you know,
ze Guy Ziegler and Jamal Mashik Okay Maschik had one
made shot in fifty five minutes versus this team in
two games. Lenaer went five of fourteen and three of
thirteen shooting in the two games, only had one assists.
It's not like Ziegler was great in either game. Combined,
(55:00):
in those two regular season meetings, we saw Tennessee fourteen
of sixty three from three point range. These are not systematic,
fundamental mismatch problems. These are problems that Tennessee had in
a couple of regular season meetings against a wildcat scene.
(55:21):
They're certainly good defensively, but Kentucky wants to play fast.
Tennessee's not gonna let them play fast. The balls have
certainly shown in this tournament that they're capably hitting some jobs.
And again the win over UCLA, no one's gonna look
at it as being anything impressive, necessarily one by nine,
But considering Barnes tracker in those games and considering the
(55:43):
guard play that they got, and that's what this bets on.
I'm betting on Tennessee's guards, and I think that'll get
us to a win by five points or more in
this Sweet sixteen matchup.
Speaker 1 (55:56):
As you guys know, the favorites just absolutely obliterated in
the first two rounds, and coincidentally, every single one of
us is taking a favorite. We're a bunch of chalk
eating weasels here, you guys, and I apologize for that,
but I am gonna lay it here with Texas Tech
as my best bet. I understand that Tech has got
(56:16):
some woes. Sometimes they tend to fall all over themselves
in that slow play and make mistakes, most notably against
Arizona in the Big twelve tournament. But overall, I have
been very impressed with this team. That's why I bet
them back in late January thirty to one to win
the whole thing, even though the defense is not as
(56:38):
top twenty five, right, that fits that metric to win
the whole thing. I thought, all right, we're gonna see
them start to clean it up again. They faltered against Arizona,
TCU Houston and then Arizona again down the stretch but
this is an Arkansas team with some well two outright
underdog wins. Kansas and Saint John's both teams that I
bet on. So why am I betting against Arkansas who's
(57:00):
covered eleven two and two in their last fifteen games.
And that's because I think they're kind of a farce.
They can't hit a three point shot to save their lives.
They're gonna want to play fast, and I think that's
gonna play right into Texas Tech's hands. We talked about
the slow teams earlier in Houston and whatever other slow
team Joe was talking about it now escapes my mind.
(57:22):
But that being said, Texas Tech is slow, they are methodical,
and I don't think they beat themselves here. They had
a really weird game against Drake coming off of that
outright win over Mazoo, but they got the cover for
us and Drake also a very slow playing team. So
these are like a clash of styles. But the Razorbacks
run comes to an end here. Sorry, guys, I know
(57:46):
the SEC fans and the mentions are not gonna like it.
I understand they do have a top defense, but they're
not going to get offensive rebounds and they're not going
to hit those shots and oh, by the way, when
they start fouling down the stretch, that's how Tech is
going to cover this five point. Yes, okay, guys, it's
been a fun season. Oh don't worry, we're going to
be back for the final four. All jokes aside, we're
(58:06):
not leaving you just yet. Good luck this week. Thank
you to Marco, Joe and Teddy. Of course, thanks to
Bill Krackenberger, Ralph Michaels, Andy Lang and Yanni Corrales. You
guys are the best for hanging out with me every
single week here on bet on It. Good Luck this
week and we'll see you for the Final four.
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