NFL Conference Championship Picks & Predictions | Bet On It: Betting Odds, Barking Dogs & Best Bets

We kick things off with NFL picks, predictions and everything you need to know about both Conference Championship matchups: Bills vs Chiefs and Commanders vs Eagles.

Bet On It NFL Conference Championship Time Stamps:
00:00 AFC: Buffalo at Kansas City
14:06 VR's GOLD
28:34 WestGate Superbook Art DiCesare
35:15 NFC: Washington vs Philadelphia
49:31 Which Team Has a Coaching Edge?
54:13 Prop Shop w/ Andy Lang
56:00 Trends & Angles w/ Ralph Michaels
60:00 Recap

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Championship weekend is upon us. We are down to four
teams fighting their way into the Super Bowl here in
a couple of weeks in New Orleans. I'm Kelly Stewart
at Kelly and Vegas, and this is beat on it.
Every single week we get here, we come in, We
work our asses off just for you guys, to bring you,
guys awesome picks. Marco DiAngelo, Joe Vernieri, Teddy Covers. You

(00:23):
guys were so close to the finish line. I can
almost taste the vacation. All jokes aside. We're gonna break
down the AFC Championship game. We're gonna talk to Vegas Runner,
Greek Gambler, Ace, the Man of many Names. We're gonna
talk to Andy Lang bought some prop bets, Ralph Michael's
got some TNA. We're gonna talk to NFC Championship Game.
And of course we're gonna check in with Art to

(00:43):
Caesar from the Westgates super Book. We've got lots to
break down today, guys, even though we only have two games,
so we're gonna get right into it. The AFC Championship Game.
This one's kind of interesting. I got the odds logic
screen open right now, Bills. Immediately Guy went out tease him.
I said, Bill's one and a half teaser, open it up.
Put some in with the Ohio State just down, you know,

(01:08):
to just win the game right minus two minus two
and a half. And I felt pretty smart after Ohio
State one. And then I had a buddy text me
there was a Chiefs fan and said, you know exactly
what's gonna happen. I go, oh wait, I can't wait
to lose this game. The good news is if it
goes to overtime, guess what happens. I can't lose my
teaser bet. You can't lose the teaser betting overtime. I

(01:29):
am terrified to take the two here, terrified. I know
what happens when I bet against Patrick Mahomes or in
this case, last week, you bet on Patrick Mahomes. Luckily,
some people got lucky if they got in early. If
you got in late, that safety. Marco Dangel, I'm gonna
go to you first, help me make sense of this game. Playoff, Patty?

(01:51):
Are we betting against him?

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, Kelly, First of all, go back to last week.
If you bet the Kansas City Houston game and you
you lost your bet.

Speaker 3 (02:01):
Please stop betting right now.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
Because the winning number was available no matter which side
you had. You could have taken Case earlier in the
week at eight eight and a half, and you could
have gotten Houston at nine and a half late on
game day. So you know, that's why we always talk
about getting the best of the number. Try to anticipate
which way the market's going to go and when you

(02:24):
think you can jump in and get the best number.
But now for this game, Kelly, you look at Buffalo
in Kansas City. It's like we're watching the movie Groundhog Day.
The same thing generally always happens. Buffalo wins during the
regular season, Kansas City wins the playoff matchup. But you know,
we still got the narrative with Kansas City that they're

(02:46):
gonna get every call. And once again, we couldn't go
through a game without a questionable call, the roughing the
passer or unnecessary roughness, whatever you want to do against
Houston last week when the two guys actually hit one
another in the head, Patrick Mahomes slid under it and.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
There's a penalty.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
I don't know exactly what the rules are for these penalties,
because if that was a penalty in the Kansas City game, Holly,
they helped call the penalty when Golf got almost decapitated.
I can't figure that out. But we got to take
on Kansas City and the refs, and again the Chiefs
find a way. They only had two hundred and twelve

(03:27):
yards of offense last week. Now, granted, the Houston Texans
do have a decent defense. I would rate Houston's defense
obviously better than Buffalo's, but when you compare the offenses,
there's no comparison between Houston and Buffalo.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
With Josh Allen, I look at.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
That game last week with Case and the things that
you know, really bother me, and nobody's really talking about it.
But what was the Mico Ryans thinking about? Or Miko Ryans,
I'm sorry, head coach for you, Houston. It's the fourth quarter,
it's an eight point game, you're just over midfield, and

(04:06):
it's fourth and ten and you in CJ. Stroud had
been running for his life the entire series because they
started sending blitz packages at him. He decides to go
for it on fourth and ten when he's only down
one score in still nine minutes to play, where he
could have punted and pinned them back. Not only did

(04:26):
they not make the first down, he gets sacked on
the play for a big loss and sets up Kansas
City needing just one, you know, one first down and
he can kick the field goal, which guess what, that's
what they did and that's how they got to that
eleven point margin. I just I'm gonna step in front
of Kansas City here. I lean to Buffalo. I had
Buffalo is a big play last week against Baltimore, and

(04:48):
you know, look great at halftime coming out getting the
ball to start the second half. Give Baltimore credit, they
almost pulled it out, but Buffalo got the job done.
Whether you want to call it lucky or ugly, however
you want to do it, I like it because that
gets us line value the following week, and that's why
we're seeing Buffalo plus two. If you remember, this game

(05:09):
opened up on the strip at a pick them. It
didn't last long, but it did open up in a
pick them. And I do respect our buddies that are
at the sports books, and I think they had it
right when they had it at pick I think the
value is on Buffalo.

Speaker 1 (05:25):
Joe Ranieri, I'd like to start off the show by
congratulating you on your new head coach. I don't know
if you've seen, but the Jets just hired Aaron Glenn.
I feel like that's like you should be happy.

Speaker 4 (05:36):
Yeah, it's great, it's gonna work out great.

Speaker 5 (05:38):
You know, hire the head coach before the general manager.
Now you gotta find a general manager that's gonna be
okay with the head coach. So no, things working really
well for the Jets. They do everything really by the book.
It's amazing why they suck so bad there. Cabo welcome in.
You know, former New York Jet anyway, so he has
been part of the Jet family as a player for

(05:59):
many many I.

Speaker 4 (06:01):
Just wish they would have kind of.

Speaker 5 (06:03):
Found that GM first because this team needs a lot
of help there, Pal, But I'm already looking for that
win total under by the way neck whatever it is
come could be four games that's still going under.

Speaker 1 (06:14):
He and Aaron Rodgers are gonna get along great. I
can see it. Now, let's get it into the AFC
Championship game here, Joe Josh Allen I said he was
my MVP. I still bet against him last week. Well
not really. Let's just put it this way. I didn't
hedge my Ravens ten to one ticket. In hindsight, I
don't feel like it was the wrong thing to do.

(06:36):
I could have guaranteed myself at least to break even
if you will. But sometimes when games have three turnovers
that just don't go your way, you kind of just
brush it off as a product of bad luck. What
do you think about the game versus the Ravens and
how it correlates to the game this week versus well,
the Kansas City Chiefs.

Speaker 5 (06:58):
Well, it's interesting. First, I think this is the game
that many of us thought we were going to get
for a title for the AFC Championship and onto the playoffs.
I'm sure the NFL is pretty excited for it as well,
since this is probably the best ongoing rivalry among these types,

(07:18):
these front end teams that really the league has to
offer at this particular point. So in the history tells
us cal that Buffalo finds a way, like Marco said,
to win these games in a regular season, it's a
different story in the playoffs. The Bills have won four
consecutive regular season matchups against these teams, and now what's

(07:38):
interesting about that, And of course the Chiefs have won
all three playoffs well, what's interesting is that we have
the same head coaches, we have the same quarterbacks, and
we have pretty much a pretty consistent front office. These
two teams, bottom line, know each other better than anybody.
And if you think that, history will just continue and

(08:01):
these trends will continue. While we saw Buffalo defeat Kansas
City thirty to twenty one at home in Week eleven,
and for those of you that may not recall what
that game was like, it was sixteen to fourteen at
the half. The game was twenty three to twenty one
till about two minutes and twenty seven seconds left in

(08:23):
the game, and that's when Josh Allen closed things out
with a twenty six yard touchdown run on of all things,
fourth and two. That has been the story with Josh
Allen and Patrick Mahomes. When you consider the past five
times these teams have gone up against one another, the
games have been decided by a total of you ready, nine, three, three, six,

(08:47):
and four. All of those games also happen to be
within four points heading into the fourth quarter. This is
a spot at home that Kansas City has thrived in
nine to zero at home this season. They not going
to impress you with how they win the games. They

(09:08):
just win the games. I can say the same thing
about Buffalo. Was there anything impressive about Buffalo last week
against Baltimore that everyone went, wow?

Speaker 4 (09:18):
They are just they are no.

Speaker 5 (09:20):
Nothing but what they have been impressed at. And when
you dig down to the numbers, to me, there are
a few statistical ledges, certainly on offense, I think that
favor Buffalo here. First of all, the Bills have converted
almost eighty seven percent of their red zone trips for
touchdowns this year. That's second in the NFL. Kansas City,

(09:41):
by the way, twenty fourth in the league in converting
red zone trips to touchdowns. And also, is there any
team that has been better this year at not beating
themselves than the Buffalo Bills. They don't give up a
ton of sacks, right lead the turnover margin in the

(10:01):
NFL plus twenty seven. That is ten more than the
next highest team. They have scored a league high one
hundred and thirty eight points off of those turnovers. You
know how many points they've allowed when they turned it over?
Twenty seven? That was the difference last week in Baltimore.
And as sure as I'm sitting here, it's gonna be
the issue again this week. Which one of these two

(10:23):
offenses makes that one mistake. Mahomes early in the season
kept throwing it to the other team. Josh Allen's got
six interceptions all year. Both of these guys have done
a great job of not turning the ball over here.
It is a coin flip game, and a coin flip
game for a reason. But I will repeat the last

(10:43):
five times these teams have met, they have been decided
by nine, three, three, six and four. What's the teaser
in this game right now? Cal what can I get
Buffalo for seven and a half seven and a half,
eight points?

Speaker 4 (10:58):
I you know, I just why if it ain't broke,
why fix it right? So? You can bet Kansas City
all you want.

Speaker 5 (11:04):
I'll take Buffalo in any teaser I can get him
in across the board here this week.

Speaker 4 (11:10):
I don't think this is more than a field goal game.

Speaker 1 (11:13):
I love to hear it. Let's hear from Teddy Covers.
I always appreciate his insight. Teddy, give me give me
your opinion on the AFC Championship game. I know Marco's
broke it down, Joe's broke it down. Anything that they
haven't mentioned that maybe we're missing here in this matchup.

Speaker 6 (11:30):
Well, there's a couple of things that I think that
they were worthy of mansion. First, when it comes to
this postseason narrative that oh, Casey Buffalo will win in
the regular season but they can't win in the postseason.
The last two postseason meetings, one of them job with
the Patrick Mahomes with the thirteen seconds left, It drives

(11:51):
him down the field and the Buffalo easily could have
won that game. The other one wasn't overtime, all right,
so that won and over there there was a three
point the game last year. It's not like there's been
this huge edge for Casey and the postseason. They've just
managed to eke out close wins. So when it talks

(12:12):
about postseason history recent postseason history, I don't think there's
any advantage for case in that regard. You know the
coins flip that has come out heads of the post details.
Casey's won the coin flip games. That doesn't give them
an edge here. We talk about the history of the league,
all right. Kansas City is one of four teams in
NFL histories that have won that have sorry followed up

(12:35):
back to back Super Bowl championships by getting to the
conference title game. No team in the history of the
league has ever won three straight Super Bowls. The three
teams that won two straight and reached the conference championship game.
That would be the seventy six Pittsburgh Steelers, the nineteen
ninety Sampsonusco forty nine Ers, the nineteen ninety four Dallas Cowboys.

(12:56):
Again old old history, but it's worth no. All those
three teams in this very spot, they all lost. And
when you try to gauge hunger, you know how hungry
a team is as opposed to how a fet and
satisfied they are. We know Kansas City is searching for history,

(13:20):
but Buffalo sure looks like a pretty hungry team. That
being said, Ben against Patrick Mahomes has not been a
successful methodology in the postseason. This is a game, Kel,
I'm still thinking about it. I have not made a
bet on Buffalo Kansas City yet. I'm not convinced that
I will. But if I'm gonna make a bet on
the game, it's not going to be based on regular

(13:44):
season stats. Don't matter. Recent series history, in my mind,
is not a key key factor. We're gonna see if
we can feel something on the nuance because my gut
says Buffalo has something to dig down deep in. But
my gut also says Kansas City is a team that
when you fade them in the spots, you don't do well.
Sixteen and three in the postseason.

Speaker 1 (14:03):
For Patrick Mahomes, if you're new here and you have
never heard of the Greek gambler, because you've living under
a rock, he is back as he has every single
week to give us some of that gold. He also
joins us on Saturdays and Sundays on Wager Talk. Last
Call takes us right up to well Gonnas soon be
only tip off, but usually kickoff of the NFL slate VR.

(14:25):
Welcome in interesting. You know divisional round will say some
close calls, some blowouts, and you know whether that safety
was intentional or not. It definitely middled the sportsbooks. Also
college basketball season's Wanderway. It's Wednesday. Normally the show is
so long, we don't have time to give out some

(14:46):
of that college basketball bull But you told me before
the show you had a few that you wanted to
share with our audience.

Speaker 7 (14:51):
I do, I do.

Speaker 8 (14:52):
Let's get them out of the way real quickly, so
then we could dive into the NFL isolated some sides
for you. Seven ten Oakland at A pick, seven thirty
five Georgia plus two, seven thirty seven Texas A and
M plus four. Three sides confirmed multiple groups, and I actually.

Speaker 7 (15:11):
Had a lean on the A and M side myself.

Speaker 8 (15:13):
So those are the three sides that I would isolate
as true steam for Wednesday Night's college basketball Slate.

Speaker 1 (15:20):
I love that VR Georgia on my long list. I
guess I'm gonna have to go ahead and fire there.
I really love that basketball team, especially as underdogs this season.
Let's talk about some underdogs this weekend. We only have
two games, the AFC and the NFC Championship. Are you
seeing guys play these are you guys seeing them teased?
Are you seeing team totals, player props? What's going on

(15:40):
for the championship weekend?

Speaker 7 (15:43):
Great way to set it up.

Speaker 8 (15:45):
Here's what we got with the Washington Let's talk Washington Philadelphia. First,
Philadelphia line moved. Obviously, wise guys bet the Philadelphia side,
expecting that the public would probably come in on that side. Actually,
I thought they'd come in more on the Washington side
because they like betting those you know, put up a
little to win a lot, and Washington's been doing that
for him by cashing the money line. But I think

(16:05):
this is what the Sharps looked at. Washington's coming off
a game. Yes, they beat Detroit, but they had to
be plus five in turnovers to get it done. Their
stock is at its highest, at a point where at
least the box score shows they've gotten their luckiest. They
got a first year a head coach, they got a
rookie quarterback on the road, and you got a Philadelphia
team that we already had a spread to compare to.

(16:26):
They've already played twice. The first time in Philadelphia, Philadelphia
closed minus four and a half forty nine. They covered
that game. They were plus one in turnovers, They got
the cover and it stayed under I believe. Second game
in Washington, they went in US four point favorites with
Kenny Pickett, were plus three in turnovers and lost that game.
It's almost never going to happen in the NFL where

(16:46):
you're plus three and turnovers and you.

Speaker 4 (16:47):
Lose the game.

Speaker 7 (16:48):
So you got to chalk that up to luck once again.

Speaker 8 (16:51):
So you have a Washington team that continues to get lucky,
and I think that's just, you know, one of those
automatic bets for sharps where they think the team's going
to regress or progress towards the mean. Again, I wouldn't
be all that short Philadelphia, not one hundred percent on
the offensive side of the ball or on the defensive
side of the ball.

Speaker 7 (17:09):
But I can't overlook the hypothetical.

Speaker 8 (17:11):
Prior to the divisional games, we had a hypothetical matchup
and they had made Philly.

Speaker 7 (17:16):
Actually in the steam room.

Speaker 8 (17:17):
Someone asked me, what would you make the line, and
I said, probably around above a touchdown if I think
a fair line would be above of a touchdown, and
they brought it out. Eight and a half was the hypothetical.
So that's another reason. I think that the bettingston thin
gets got out ahead of the public. But it'd be
interesting to see what the public does come Sunday.

Speaker 7 (17:36):
I do like the under. I'll give that to you now.
I haven't bet it yet.

Speaker 8 (17:40):
Art the Caesar just was on wager Talk today and
he talked about how they just moved with the market.
None of their sharp betters came in on them under,
but they just followed the market. I think the sharp
betters haven't steamed that under yet because there's really no
reason to. I think that's that one game where you're
gonna get the over money. Because you have four or
five in this series that have gone over, but the

(18:00):
average total is forty four point eight. You're looking at
three point adjustment off that number, coupled with recency bias,
three of the last five for both teams coming in
having gone over. So I think it sets up nicely
to get some value on the yonder. Again, I haven't
fired yet, but that's the side I'm looking at. I'm
going to just roll right into Buffalo and Kansas City.

Speaker 1 (18:21):
Actually have a quick question. You know, John Murray and
I joke all the time that kicking is for losers, right,
Jake Elliott missed two pats and that was a differentiating
factor as somebody who leans the commanders, and I do
think it is going to be the public side. As
you mentioned that Commander's team. I threw a few shekels
on the money line. Of course I did the R
Did I really expect them to win?

Speaker 4 (18:41):
Out right?

Speaker 9 (18:42):
No?

Speaker 1 (18:42):
I came right here on this program and said, I
don't blame you if you tease the Lions. I understand
it's non traditional the books are protecting themselves. But things
like that are Jake Elliott right, So Dan Alexander, our producer,
and I talked about it on last call. Guys like
him that have been inconsistent all season long, is a
little bit more than a luck factor. So would you

(19:04):
consider certain things like that where he may miss a
field goal late, he may miss a pat or two
so they end up going for two. Do you break
those types of things down into your handicap whatsoever?

Speaker 8 (19:16):
Absolutely, because you have to differentiate between, like you said,
is it actually luck or is that just simply probability
because it's probable that he's not a perfect kicker. He's
not that guy you want in that clutch situation. So
that's where with the luck factor, especially when it comes
to the NFL where they're single games, that's the key there.
There's single games, so there's a lot of randomness involved. Sure,

(19:39):
if someone gets really lucky, they will regress to the mean.
Your luck can't stay forever. But what is that mean?
And more importantly, what is the long term? Because in
the short term you could continue to outperform the market,
you could continue to define probability.

Speaker 7 (19:53):
And that's what I think most are thinking Washington's.

Speaker 8 (19:56):
Doing But are they really doing that or are they
just beating these tea teams and creating their own luck?
Because when you're plus five and turnovers, you have to
be a part of that. Like they didn't just give
you the ball, They didn't just drop the ball on purpose,
They didn't just throw it to the other team on purpose.
You are creating those turnovers, You're creating those opportunities.

Speaker 7 (20:15):
So I do think we kind of flipped the.

Speaker 8 (20:18):
Narrative to what supports our bet or what supports are
losing or winning bet, And I think.

Speaker 7 (20:24):
I'm seeing a lot of that.

Speaker 8 (20:25):
With the Washington side, because I know I touched them
as much as I can that the wise Guy teaser
last week was Detroit, Kansas City.

Speaker 7 (20:32):
It wasn't just the recreational betters.

Speaker 8 (20:34):
It was the betting sin that gets taken advantage of
the Wong teaser, and they got beat. There was also
moneyline parlace they got beat. And I think everyone has
that little ego and everyone has that little bad beat
that they kind of still sticks in their tummy.

Speaker 7 (20:49):
And these guys are a human like all of us, and.

Speaker 8 (20:51):
It's almost, I think a revenge bet against Washington. As
much as it is like in Philadelphia. I think anyone
that did bet Philly was getting out ahead of the number.
Good for you, you did a good job. But I
think now we got to handicap it from that minus
six and a half. Art says, you don't expect the seven.
We'll see that may appear at least that some of
the square books, especially if this Philadelphia money continues to

(21:14):
come in, So a long way of saying, can you
conclude they're lucky? Maybe, but if they keep creating this
luck for themselves, it doesn't mean it's going to go away.

Speaker 3 (21:24):
All right.

Speaker 1 (21:24):
Art di Caesar is going to be joining us to
reiterate some of the stuff that he also said on
Wager Talk today, So we will, you know, cross reference
with VR saying with that as well, VR is somebody
who suffers from chief derangement syndrome. Yes, that is one
of my guy friends told me. Is my problem because
I did bet Buffalo and teasers. As soon as it

(21:44):
came out, I said, Ohio state buffalo, and I banged
that around for a few and I left a couple
open buffalos in case it moved out of that range.
I don't really think I have Chiefs derangement syndrome. I
just think that there is always a premium to pay
for this team. Right, So last week I didn't really
like the Texans. I had to pick one of the
sides in my pools. Luckily for me, I either had

(22:09):
seven and a half eight or eight and a half,
because if I had nine and a half, I think
I would have blown in absolute under gasket. Chiefs once
again don't cover the closing number, but win the game.
Is that what was gonna happen here? Is this gonna
be like a twenty one to twenty final. Chiefs are
somehow gonna pull out the win and beat Buffalo. Josh
Allen up until last weekend was zero and three as

(22:30):
an underdog in the playoffs. I was holding at Ravens ticket.
I know you were as well. The three turnovers too
much to overcome there, whether it was Lamar, whether it
was for Andrews, you know, dropping that two point conversion.
I think there was a lot of blame to go around.
I think the Ravens really beat themselves, but I still

(22:52):
do have the Bills as a better team over the Chiefs.
I made the Ravens one, Bills one beat Lions I
made the Chiefs, So I do have some questions about
this game. Was I too quick to jump on the
bills We're gonna see a ton of Chiefs some money
coming in? Or are they just not trusting this team? Still?

Speaker 8 (23:11):
No, I don't think you're gonna see a ton of
money on the bills Keil, and I don't think it's
going to three. There's no way, especially because the way
Buffalo got the job done in history where you know
they've choken that spot. They outplayed it seemed like they
got outplayed, at least according to the box score. But
they got the win. That's the bottom line. And Buffalo's

(23:32):
done that all year. They are number one in the
NFL in turnover ratio. They are plus twenty four. Now,
you could chalk a lot of that up the luck
because plus ten of that is their interceptions. Plus fourteen
of that is on the fumble side. Listen, when the
ball hits the ground, it's fifty to fifty who's going to.

Speaker 4 (23:50):
Pick it up?

Speaker 8 (23:50):
But this team managed to pick it up a lot
more than their opposition. And yet when they dropped the ball,
only two times did the opposition recover.

Speaker 7 (23:59):
So again, is that luck?

Speaker 8 (24:00):
Where's Buffalo just playing so much better that the luck
factor keeps falling their way. Because again, that's when you
look at this matchup, at least on paper, it looks
like Kansas City is the better team, meaning offensively, defensively
their quarterback rating of the other team they allow less
the defense for Buffalo allows the ninety three point three,

(24:22):
the Chiefs allow ninety point six. You look at against
the run, Buffalo allows four point five yards for US
they allow four point one. Even look at special teams, kicking, punting, returning.
All those favor the Kansas City side. But they haven't
been able to win by margin at all this year.
That's what makes it scary. But they don't have to

(24:42):
win by margin here. They simply have to win this
football game against Buffalo. That's why I think you'll see
more balanced action.

Speaker 7 (24:49):
Kel.

Speaker 8 (24:49):
I think a lot of the trend players are like listen, Casey,
nobody's ever repeated.

Speaker 7 (24:54):
They probably won't get their super bown get that opportunity.

Speaker 8 (24:57):
And those that had the Buffalo side over Baltimore there
was a of one side at action late. I think
they're happy and they're going to roll that over into
the Kansas City game. I think you're gonna see good
balanced action here, and even from the sharp betters.

Speaker 7 (25:09):
Because they laid the pick.

Speaker 8 (25:11):
But I've been seeing some take back on the Buffalo side,
and I heard a lot of guys I respect that
are on the Buffalo side.

Speaker 7 (25:18):
And more importantly, I know a lot of guys I.

Speaker 8 (25:20):
Respect who have Buffalo on a teaser from the Ohio
State side on Monday night, myself included again, I don't
tease college football, but I don't say always or never.
There's always a spot where you could break your rules
if it's beneficial, and I did.

Speaker 7 (25:34):
That and it worked out for me.

Speaker 8 (25:36):
So I find myself in a good position as far
as Buffalo in Kansas City, no one's here to hear
about my bets.

Speaker 7 (25:41):
I will tell you this. It's another game that I
lean under. I lean under once again.

Speaker 4 (25:45):
And here's why.

Speaker 8 (25:46):
This will be the third time these two teams met
over the last twelve months. Both of those games went over,
yet if you look the average closing line, it was forty.

Speaker 7 (25:54):
Six and a half forty six and a half.

Speaker 8 (25:57):
They scored fifty one points in both of those games
did go over by less than a touchdown. The adjustment,
I don't think is warranted. Again, I don't think just
because of those two games that the adjustment even up
is warranted. I think in a playoff game, if anything,
you're gonna bring the total down a little bit. And

(26:17):
that didn't happen because we have a little bit recency
bias surrounding this game. Just like the Philadelphia game, I
think no one wants to make the mistake.

Speaker 7 (26:25):
Like, if you're Washington, the last thing you want to
do is fall behind.

Speaker 8 (26:28):
In Philadelphia, it's not gonna go good for a rookie quarterback,
first year head coach that most people believed shouldn't even
be here. And I think Kansas City Buffalo is the
same way. I don't think Buffalo wants to fall behind. Dude,
is Kansas City team who has the history of getting
the job done and getting to the Super Bowl. I
don't think it's going to be as wide open as
a game as some expect. I think you're going to

(26:49):
see a lot more slower paced let's not make mistakes,
let's put ourselves in a position to win with five
minutes left from both of these teams. I think that's
what you're going to see. Because again I'm not to
go along, but Kansas City. I had a lot of
players back on offense and did not use them. They
didn't do much for them in that playoff game. Again,
we have a sample size of one, so you know,
you can't really take too much out of it. But

(27:10):
still they're winning with defense and what got you here.
I don't think they're going to change. So I think
Kansas City will slow the pace down and they don't
want to get in a shoot out with Buffalo because
that has not worked for them this year, which is
evident by them not being able to win by margin.
And I think Buffalo on the road doesn't win to
fall behind you a Chiefs team that knows how to.

Speaker 7 (27:29):
Get to the Super Bowl.

Speaker 8 (27:30):
So I think under in both these games is where
the value is, and if it goes to and over,
obviously I look like the fool. But I do think
we're gonna see lower scoring games in both. I'm looking
to see where this total goes. I haven't bet it yet,
but I like the undering both these games.

Speaker 1 (27:46):
He is a great gambler. As I mentioned, you can
check him out every single Saturday and Sunday on wager
Talks Last Call with Me and of course Premium subscribers
get free access to his steam room, WT dot Buzz,
Backslash What is it VR? I keep wanting to say
Backslash VR, but is it GG?

Speaker 7 (28:06):
I'm not even sure. I just go to Greek on
the score Gambler.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
V because that's the reality. I have to remember all
these short links, and I'm like, I call him VR.
Does everybody else? Nobody else calls him VR, Johnny calls
you Ace, you call yourself the Greek Gambler Backslash VR.
Do not miss out on any of his premium plays.

(28:30):
He has been absolutely red hot and that is why
he joins us every single weekend on Last Call, Next up,
guess who's back? I love it Art, the Caesar Westgate
super Book Art. I'm glad you are feeling better enough
to grace us with your presence. If you guys miss
last Call on Saturday. Art sent me a very extensive
text message that we read off and pushed me two

(28:52):
extra winners. I'm very glad faded that lovely Miami of
Florida team and Faded Kentucky. So shout out to Art
always bringing us great stuff. And if I would have
thought ahead, I'd ask them and bring some college Basketball
for today. That being said, Art is the best. He
gives us a look behind the counter. So Art, let's
get into some of these games. Well there's only two

(29:12):
of them this weekend. But most importantly, I want to
talk some liability stuff. Right Obviously, each book has different
liability on the Super Bowl. But over at the Westgates
Super Book, you guys are cheering against the Kansas City.

Speaker 10 (29:24):
Chiefs, that's for sure. Kelly, We're definitely rooting against the Chiefs.
We're rooting against the Eagles a little bit. Bills is
our best outcome out of the four. If Buffalo could
go on and win the Super Bowl, it would be
our best look in the future book. Washington not you know,
not that bad, be right behind Buffalo. But Buffalo number

(29:45):
one for us right now that we want to see
win the Super Bowl. Number one we want to avoid
is Kansas City.

Speaker 1 (29:53):
I kind of figured that, and I kind of would
love to not see Kansas City in the Super Bowl myself,
but again, I just want to see some new blood
Bill's Commies would be awesome. Let's talk a few more
angles for the Super Bowl. John and I discussed it
on Kelly and Murray, but I want to give like
a big I don't know, shout out to the Westgate.

(30:14):
I know you're always working, but as somebody who's always
a patron during the Super Bowl, I've done it all.
I've been in the theater, I've been in the sports book,
I've been in the convention Center, and they all provide
a different experience for the Super Bowl. But kind of
talk about what super Bowl Week is like, not only
in Vegas, but specifically at the Westgate super Book.

Speaker 10 (30:32):
Yeah, I mean, Kelly, listen, you know, I know a
lot of places all for unique experiences, but I think
ours is singular. I mean, you have the thrill and
the energy of being in the sports Book with just
the normal crowd that you're always going to have, but
then you have a lot of other things that you mentioned,
the convention Center, the theater. You know, if you want

(30:52):
to be someone who wants to rent the pod or
rent the clubhouse. I know you guys were in the
clubhouse last year. It's just such a fun atmosphere, a
fun event, a lot going on. So I think we
do it as good as anyone.

Speaker 4 (31:05):
Or even better.

Speaker 10 (31:06):
I know I'm a little biased, and listen, I've worked
for other sports books, and it hasn't been as good
as it is at the West Game.

Speaker 1 (31:13):
You know, I get accused of smoking cigarettes all the
time because I have this like awful, deep raspy voice,
and in fact, I am so anti cigarette smoke, and
I know that. I say, the gluten free pizza is
the number one thing I love about the Westgates Superbook,
But it's actually the fact that it's smoke free. If
you guys are like me, you want to have, you know,
a really fun environment without the smell. I love it

(31:34):
over there. It's one of my favorites. Right before we
get into these two games, let's talk about some what
if scenarios. I love that you guys do look aheadlines.
They're at the Westgates Superbook. Last week we saw Bills
would be one and a half point favorites to the
Chiefs at a couple of sports books, but you guys
marched them out as one and a half point underdogs.
Let's talk about some interesting scenarios. Bills, Eagles, Bills, Commedes, Chiefs,

(31:58):
Eagles Command Chiefs.

Speaker 10 (32:02):
Yeah, I mean, we try to put out these potential
lines if we can, and you know, sure, maybe you
see the Bills that were one point favorites in a
lot of places. At Kansas City. I mean, we open
Buffalo one, so it wasn't like it was that crazy.
But you know, when you look at basically Bills Eagles,
Chiefs Eagles, that's gonna be right around you know, one,
one and a half, two in that range. Obviously, if

(32:24):
Washington gets into the game, you start to be more
in the range of where we are with this Eagle game,
where you're gonna talk anywhere of a low four and
a half, maybe a high.

Speaker 3 (32:34):
Six and a half.

Speaker 10 (32:36):
If Washington gets into the game, the total really goes up.
The total is going to be in the fifties if
Washington's in the game. So there's obviously different scenarios there.
And as always, you can bet the potentials and if
the matchup doesn't happen, you obviously get your money back.
The matchup has to happen for you to have actions.

(32:56):
Always remember that.

Speaker 1 (32:59):
Absolutely. Let's talk about some of that said action sharp
action this week. Interesting bets. I know it is Wednesday,
so the public has yet to really start to get involved,
but what have you seen so far behind the counter.

Speaker 10 (33:10):
Yeah, it's a great call, Kelly. You got to keep
that in mind public really hasn't gotten involved yet. But
let's look at the Washington Philadelphia game. We opened five
and a half forty eight, and we've seen a steady
stream of Philly money come in, got us the six.
Now we're at six and a half. Total's gone down
half a point. That was just us.

Speaker 3 (33:27):
Moving with the market.

Speaker 10 (33:28):
We didn't want to be the only forty eight out there,
so we got to forty seven. Obviously, Philly's gonna be
very popular starting teasers. They're gonna be the team that
everyone teases to pick, and then they'll figure out which
side they like in the AFC Championship game. When people
do come in and at Washington, it's gonna be kind
of like it was last week with some of the
bigger spreads.

Speaker 7 (33:49):
They might take a chance with Washington on the money line.

Speaker 10 (33:52):
We haven't seen that yet, but sometimes that happens because
the money lines are a little bit inflated. When we
talk Bill's Chiefs. This is a game we open one
and a half, also forty eight. We're now Kansas City too,
and this to me has the feel of the Baltimore
Buffalo game, where maybe you don't see a lot of
spread action on the game, where I do think Buffalo

(34:12):
will get teased up. I think you'll see the seven
and a half and eight on Buffalo and teasers, but
I think this is gonna be more of who you like.
You take the money line, whether you lay one thirty
with Kansas City or you take plus one ten with Buffalo.
I think you're gonna see that, and you see that
a lot more when these spreads are tight. Total has
also gone down to forty seven and a half, once

(34:33):
again just moving with the market on that. I know
there was some forty sevens out there as well. I
think we got there for a little bit, but then
bounce backed up to forty seven and a half. So
both of those totals have moved, but it's just been
market stuff.

Speaker 1 (34:46):
You're the best at Art Dice twenty one over there
on AX. You can also catch him on Wager Talk
Today and of course Saturdays Wager Talk Last Call. We're
gonna be taking it through college basketball season and may
have a special guest hosting for baseball season, but Art
is going to be joining us there as well, maybe
some John Murray there on Sundays. I've always make sure

(35:07):
you guys head over to the Westgates Superbook. Anytime you
guys are in Las Vegas. Their book in the action
game day at reduced juice to always save yourself a
couple of bucks. All Right, I got my Odds Logic
screen open because this one is on the move. Washington
opened as a five point underdog at Philadelphia and that
was a blip on the raidar immediately went to fit

(35:27):
five and a half. Then we started seeing six popping
up today. The Westgates Superbook is the lone six at
two twenty two pm Eastern six and a half. Excuse me,
and I found that very interesting and not conducive. Here, guys,
I like Washington in this spot. I think they're really fun,
scrappy underdog team. I said it last week on the show.

(35:49):
I said, I like Washington. Go ahead, tease the lines.
That looks so easy to do. So Washington had a
lot of things go their way in that game. I
was very happy. I sprinkled on the money line. But boy,
oh boy, beaten Alliance. Now going on the road to
Philly in the cold, hostile environment. Teddy covers you went

(36:09):
last during the AFC previous so you gonna go first
this time. Talk to me about this one. I mean,
I have just been super impressed with Washington for a
better part of the season. Jayden Daniels Rookie of the Year.
What else do we have to break down on this one?

Speaker 6 (36:25):
So certainly we have a pretty interesting series history between
these two teams, being that the last time they played,
Washington turned the ball over five times and still won
the ballgame. This is a Washington team that has one
punt in their first two postseason games this year. And

(36:45):
that being said, and of course, Philly's got injury issues,
all right. Jalen Hurts, who what do he takes? Seven
sacks last week? Eight sacks last week? We're not just
seeing that year at injured his knee. He's not listed
on the injury report, but I'm not convinced hisnees at
one hundred percent. Obviously, the rookie cornerback Queenyon Mitchell got
hurt last week, and n Kobe Dean on the defensive

(37:07):
side of the football, these are impact injuries for the
Philadelphia Eagles. That being said, all right, Philly sixteen and three.
They were one point lost to Atlanta Week two. They
had a bad loss in Week four, and then the
Commanders lost Week sixteen, a game where Jalen Hurts didn't
even play. It was Kenny Pickett behind center after Hurts

(37:29):
went one to four and got hurt in the first quarter.
Washington's played as well as they could play. Obviously, you
talked about all the turnovers last week plus five turnover edge.
You're supposed to win that game. You're supposed to win
it by margin. But much like we talk about Buffalo
and Kansas City, we're talking about the history. History matters
here and this is where teams like Washington go to lose.

(37:53):
I mean, that's been the case in the NFL. We
can go back, I can list when you start throwing
out example, the upstart teams get bounced when they reached
the conference championship game. Philly's been the class all season,
and for as good as Washington has been, this is
a step up for them, and they're coming off two

(38:16):
pretty significant victories. Now I worry a lot about the
Eagles laying the points in this. I worry about the
fatigue factor.

Speaker 4 (38:24):
All right.

Speaker 6 (38:26):
Last week's game in the snow took on you know what,
took a point what's the appropriate expression here. It took
a lot out of both teams all right, and obviously
Philadelphia is one that's playing this week. But when we
saw it, by the second half of that game, defensively, offensively,
everyone was gassed, and I think there may be some

(38:46):
carryover effect for that. Let's not forget Philadelphia played on
Sunday as opposed to Washington, who gets the extra days
worth the rest here, So there's case to be made
for the Commanders in this game. I just think that
when all said and done this time of the year,
I want the class, not the upstart. I'm looking at Philly,
but the stronger play here might well be on the total.

(39:06):
But that one, sorry, guys, it's for the clients.

Speaker 1 (39:09):
Ooh, I like that, Teddy play on the total for
the clients. Joe Ranieri, you're usually our totals guy. We're
both in agreement on the bills. Talk to me about
this Commander's Eagles matchup. I feel like I'm kind of
on an island here, being the one who likes the
scrappy underdog with lots to play for this Eagles team,

(39:33):
I'm just not sure I really believe that they are
well rounded enough. I mean, there was a lot of
kicking for Losers moments we know Hurts has been hurt,
although he had a nice fifty yard touchdown run there
against the Rams. Looked pretty healthy then obviously some offensive
line woes and so forth. Talk to me about this
Eagles team and whether they or not well, whether you

(39:57):
should be laying it with them. I mean starting to
get up here in the six and a half. I
don't think we see a seven, but you never know.

Speaker 5 (40:04):
It's interesting, Cale because this is you know, we just
we talked earlier about Buffalo and Kansas City and how
this is a rivalry that we have seen when it
comes to the playoffs a lot. It's interesting that divisional
rematches this late in the playoffs. We've only had four
in the last two decades where we've had teams playing

(40:26):
for a third time this late in the season, the
favorite four and ZHO straight up three and one against
the numbers. The games are usually really really close here.
But to me, this comes down to Jade and Daniels
because he has been unbelievable in the postseason from the

(40:48):
standpoint off he's only been he's only been sacked once,
and he hasn't.

Speaker 4 (40:53):
Turned the ball over at all.

Speaker 5 (40:55):
And we know that if that is going to be
the case, while with the amount of weapons and his
ability to be able to get outside the pocket, you
gotta worry about not only the wide receivers that have
been playing out of their mind. McClaren is absolutely nuts
Brown now the tight end has been his go to
guy because now defenses don't know who to cover here,

(41:18):
and he has been the guy rushing the ball.

Speaker 4 (41:21):
Robinson has been nowhere to have been found.

Speaker 5 (41:23):
This is all about Jayden Daniels in the Philadelphia Eagles
ability to make him one dimensional. If they can do that,
they will win this game. They will win it rather easily.
If they can't, if they can't get off the field
this defense. I mean, listen, they turned them over five
times in that game got about in Week sixteen. They

(41:44):
still figured out a way to lose. And as far
as I'm concerned, I don't know what Jalen hurts. His
situation is going to be. If he lacks mobility, that's
a big part of the offense for Philadelphia that could
go bye bye there and all of the sun.

Speaker 4 (42:00):
They become extremely one dimensional.

Speaker 5 (42:03):
So this is a little tougher game simply because I
don't know what we're gonna get from Jalen hurts and
then if and I'm sure Marco's breaking out in hives
thinking about mister Pickett under center again and how he
wishes he was still the quarterback for his Pittsburgh Steelers,
but sorry, Marco, he's not. He might actually have a
big role in helping the Eagles get past Washington and

(42:27):
head to the super Bowl. If that's the case, The
bottom line to me here, Cal is Listen, dan Quinn
defensively has been great. I think if you are backing
Philadelphia and think Philadelphia is the right side here, then
you gotta believe that that defense is going to make
Jayden Daniels extremely one dimensional and they're gonna be playing

(42:49):
from behind the entire time. And if that's the case,
I don't see how we're getting over forty seven and
a half points in this game.

Speaker 4 (42:57):
If you think.

Speaker 5 (42:58):
Washington's got a legit shot at outright doing and winning
this game and doing the unthinkable with a rookie quarterback,
then they better be able to score some points on
this Philadelphia defense. If they do, you probably lean the
under the over to me, this is all about the under, Cal,
and I think it's about the under in the first half,
and I think we're gonna learn a lot about these

(43:20):
two teams offensively and the defenses early on. So I
don't mind a full game under, I don't mind the
first half under. I don't see this game getting closer
to fifty. I think this game is closer to forty
than it is anything else in Philadelphia, in all likelihood,
might be that other half of the teaser we talked

(43:42):
about with Buffalo.

Speaker 1 (43:44):
I was waiting for you to get there and to say,
just take them down to a pick them Marco DiAngelo. Last,
but not least, anything that Teddy or Joe miss that
you think is noteworthy here in the NFC Championship game.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
Well, Kelly, the first thing I think that is noteworthy
is we want to tell the listeners about the special
guy going and wait, you talk this week, any any caffer,
you can get seven day all access package for just
seventy seven dollars. Now that's a special lit I had
been running the last couple of weeks, and you guys

(44:20):
have responded to that so well that mister Johnny Detroit
decided to do it sitwide this week, and you can
pick up your favorite kapper for seventy seven dollars and
I'll throw my hat in the ring there. If you
want to jump on me, good time to do it.
Because we're forty eight and twenty six over the last
thirty three days for a profit of over forty four

(44:41):
hundred dollars. So check us out for this game, Kelly.
Here's the way I'm looking at it. You've got Washington,
they've won seven in a row, and they're coming off
just destroying the number one seed Detroit Lions.

Speaker 3 (44:56):
So right now I.

Speaker 2 (44:57):
Think there everybody's darling Badelphia won. They had the lead
in the game. It looked like it was going to
be a comfortable win, and then all of a sudden,
if you had Philadelphia, you were sweating bullets. Yes I'm
talking to you, Dan, late in that game last week
when the Rams make, you know, the furious comeback, give
them credit for that. But let's go back to Washington

(45:20):
and look at the reality. I think Detroit came in there,
and I know this is going to sound silly, and
I'm gonna get crucified in the comments section, which I love,
because you know what, when you crucify us, you help
the algorithm. So go ahead and yell at me, tell
me why I'm wrong. In thinking this way. But I
think Detroit winning the final game of the regular season

(45:42):
against Minnesota in the fashion that they did to lock
up the number one seed. They came in here fat
and sassy, thinking they just had to show up and
they were going to be able to win. Remember, we're
talking about a Detroit Lions team that was in uncharted water.
They won their first play off game and how long
last season. Now they're coming in with a bye week

(46:05):
in the number one seed. Maybe they didn't really know
how to handle that. I know, Dan Campbell's never been
in that situation. So let's mark that down for next
year for the Lions that they might have learned a
valuable life lesson. Now, speaking of the life lessons we've seen,
and Teddy alluded to it, these teams that you want
to talk about being you know, upstarts and come from

(46:27):
nowhere that you know, this is where they usually reality
sets in. It's because they're not going to be taken
for granted. And a team that's you know, overachieved means
they're playing on the road again. This is going to
be three straight playoff games on the road, four straight
road games for Washington.

Speaker 3 (46:45):
They didn't have a buye.

Speaker 2 (46:46):
And they're going from playing in perfect conditions in Detroit
to be playing in who knows what the weather's going
to be in Philadelphia come sat or Sunday. I know
right now, you know it's coder than hell all over
the place in Pennsylvania. So it's not gonna be perfect
conditions for Washington. I still can't get past the fact

(47:07):
that even though everybody's gonna look and say, you know,
Washington put up forty five points on Detroit. Yes, they did,
a lot of that was aided by the five turnovers.
I can't get past the fact they gave up thirty
one points and Detroit gave away five possessions. How many
points does Detroit get if they don't throw away all.

Speaker 3 (47:28):
Those possessions with the turnovers.

Speaker 2 (47:31):
This is a game where I think it's finally gonna
come down to they're playing a division rival, they know
one another. Philadelphia's had two games where they one but
really didn't look super impressive. But here's the thing. Does
Washington stop the running game? And nobody runs a football
better than Barkley. It would be better if hearts was

(47:53):
one hundred percent healthy, because then you got to worry
not only about Barkley. You got to worry about hearts
running the football, and then you also got to worry
about the passing game. If he's healthy, watch their injury reports,
find out what's going on from the beat writers during
the week in practice. If he's a full go and
can run everything in the offense, I think Philadelphia wins

(48:14):
this game. Twelve of their last fourteen opponents they've held
to twenty points or less. One of the one two
that they didn't do it too, Yes, was Washington in
that turnover field game. But if you remember that game
right here on bed on it, I gave out Washington
against Philadelphia. And my reason for that game was even

(48:35):
though that was a division game, it was a sandwich
spot for Philadelphia. They were coming off playing the Steelers,
which at the time the Steelers were on their winning streaks.
That was a big game. And then they had Dallas
the following week. And I know Washington was the better
team this year and they were a division rival, but
to me, you had Dallas on Decats always a bigger

(48:58):
game just because of the history Dallas. I think Philly
gets the job done. I think Philly goes to the
Super Bowl. I think there's two ways to look at it.
Joe had one of them under in the first half.
They're going to play phil position in not wanting to
make the first mistake, and we'll keep things simple for
Daniels two, this is his first conference championship game as

(49:21):
a rookie. I think they play tight in the first half.
I would lean to the under, but full game and yeah,
look at those teasers. I got to be looking at
the Philadelphia side. I think this is their game to
win and they get back to the super Bowl.

Speaker 5 (49:34):
I'm just curious as to who do we think Marco
has the coaching edge here if it comes down to
the fourth quarter, to fourth and three, fourth and four.
We've seen Dan Gunn playing with house money a lot,
and it's not like Siriatte. He's got this great January
track record in the playoffs. So who do we trust

(49:55):
here on the sidelines to make the right calls and
push the right buttons.

Speaker 2 (50:01):
Well, the best way that I can answer that question
for you, Joe is I'll give you, uh, you know,
an analogy. Would you rather be punched in the face
or kicked in the nuts? Because that's basically what your
two choices are here with the coach.

Speaker 3 (50:13):
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (50:15):
Tell me you have a logical answer here, please, So
I do.

Speaker 4 (50:24):
Very right.

Speaker 6 (50:27):
For all the love for dan Quinn, I ain't getting
twenty eight three out of my mind ever. Okay, ever,
all right, So dan Quinn's got a little something to
prove to me before I'm gonna annoint him as the
coach I had of Nick Sirian.

Speaker 2 (50:42):
So true, I still think it's a coin toss between
the two of them. I don't trust either as far
as that goes. I'm totally honest.

Speaker 1 (50:50):
And he has PTSD from a Super Bowl ten years ago.

Speaker 5 (50:53):
So Marco's I do you want to used car with
three wheels or two wheels?

Speaker 4 (50:59):
Which one do you want?

Speaker 6 (51:02):
There aren't many games in my life that I remember that.
I'm like, this game is completely over. Haha, we won.
I'm like, they can't possibly cut. They need two touchdowns
and two point of versions and look we're still in
field goal. We're in field goal range already. I'm like,
there's no possible way New England can win this game
and cover and of course then course then then then
none of they get the two touchdowns two point of

(51:23):
versions and then win the toss in overtime. And we
all know what happens. But I'm not that you know.
I'm like, this game is over, and I've been doing
this a long time. I don't say that unless the
game's freaking over. And that's one that wasn't. I will
always have PTSD off that win. That was gonna be
a huge day for me and it ended up not
being so much.

Speaker 5 (51:41):
That's something they got Kellen Moore, Kelly. That's all I'm
gonna say. I mean nothing, nothing screams confidence. Oh well,
maybe not.

Speaker 4 (51:50):
Try.

Speaker 6 (51:51):
I had Atlanta minus fourteen and a half. I had
Atlanta minus seven and a half. I think I had
a minus twenty one and a half.

Speaker 4 (51:56):
In that game.

Speaker 6 (51:57):
I was I was looking at a huge payday. Sorry,
come over now, clearly are you?

Speaker 1 (52:05):
I mean, I feel like we just need to have
like that on a therapy sessions, like when we just
sit around and we just hit the record button. We
just let our audience listen to us a bit about
our bad beats.

Speaker 2 (52:12):
They're either gone. Mine is the Super Bowl? Boy was
with you? I had Atlanta in that one, But to me,
I'll still never forget the Seattle, New England one went
on at yard line and I got more Sean Lynch
in the backfield to get some game winning touchdown. I'm
sorry that that's the one that sticks out to me. Yes,

(52:35):
the Atlanta was a huge meltdown, but I mine that
sticks in my cross Seattle against New England.

Speaker 6 (52:43):
So the dealers for me for those two, Marco, I
was on both of those with you. The Atlanta one,
I was at a friend's house, relaxing, having fun.

Speaker 4 (52:52):
We just won.

Speaker 6 (52:53):
The Seattle one, I was at the West Gate on
camera live betting Seattle right before the last Oh, I.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Just put a wrap on it.

Speaker 6 (53:07):
There's no huge coaching engine either game. There's not a
game where I'm sitting there going, oh McDermot, it's an
idiot and reads a genius or Syrian he's an idiot,
brings a genius.

Speaker 4 (53:16):
Everybody's an idiot.

Speaker 6 (53:17):
Everybody's a genius until proven otherwise. And I rate the
two coaching matchups as neutral.

Speaker 5 (53:23):
It's kind of the chatroom Kelly that we have here.
See everyone's a genius after the game's over. In the chatroom,
it's the most amazing thing I've ever seen. Nobody knows
they're I mean, it's unreal how amazing the people are
in the chat room once the game is over and
the results are in unreal.

Speaker 1 (53:40):
Yeah, I mean, why do you think we go so
viral on TikTok? Like the games where I say the
most perfect outcome, everybody says nothing. I get no likes.
The one game here or there that I'm dead wrong
on goes viral one hundred and twenty thousand likes, and
it's like they just inbiscerate me in the comments, and
I'm like, it's because twelve year olds, like it's a

(54:02):
bunch of kids watching TikTok but no nothing and the
fact that I was wrong.

Speaker 6 (54:08):
On that.

Speaker 1 (54:09):
On that note, You've got more show to get to,
you guys. And yeah, all right, Andy, it is Championship weekend.
The prop market is getting smaller and smaller and smaller.
Except it's not because every single time I open up
the apps there's new names and new faces. The bookmakers
are really starting to expand, and I think that's really awesome,

(54:31):
especially for a guy like you that likes to dig deep.
How deep have you dug for this week's prop bet
of the week?

Speaker 11 (54:39):
Uh, you know, this one really jumped off the page
for me. I'm gonna go to Dallas Goddard and over
thirty eight and a half receiving yards. You know, he
was banged up for a while and missed some time.
Since he's come back in his last three games Kelly
fifty six, forty seven, and fifty five. So he's not
only just barely going over this, he's really going.

Speaker 7 (54:58):
Over this total.

Speaker 11 (54:59):
And I know what the near it is about the
Eagles passing attack, but listen, they're winning. I'm not really
sure what the problem is here. And Jalen Hurts doesn't
need need to throw for three hundred yards for the
Eagles to win. I would argue if he does throw
for three hundred yards, something's probably gone wrong. But Dallas
Goddard has just been steady Eddie. He's gone over his
longest reception in four straight games, so he's getting these big,

(55:21):
big chunks of yards. And Washington last time Goddard played
was on the fourteenth November. He had a thirty two
yard catch just in that game, and he had sixty
one yards total. This is a Washington team that gives
up forty five point seven yards per game. Goddard's their
main tight end talent, and I think he's gonna fly
over this thirty eight and a half. I like this

(55:43):
setup for him and Jalen Hurts a lot. So give
me Dallas Goddard is this week's best bet.

Speaker 3 (55:48):
You'll forget. Take two of these.

Speaker 11 (55:50):
It'll cure not all of your ills, but a couple
of them.

Speaker 4 (55:54):
Call me in the morning.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
There we go at Bump Sports on ax at Andy
Lang Betts on TikTok back. You guys don't have to
go to Blue Sky. Andy will see you for the
Super Bowl.

Speaker 4 (56:04):
Ralph.

Speaker 1 (56:04):
Michael has joins us for some TNA Championship weekend. Ralph,
I know that there's usually not a lot of data
right four team sample sizes, it gets a little convoluted,
but you have looked really hard through your database and
you found us some nice angles. Let's have them.

Speaker 9 (56:22):
Well, you know, Kelly, there's no wow numbers. But again,
even if the numbers aren't good, it's it's you should
be informed at what they are. But I will say this,
you have to remember that the playoffs have changed significantly
in two different times over the last five years. Remember,
prior to twenty twenty two, teams that buys, so you

(56:42):
had the number one seat and the number two seat
getting buys. Since that time, only the number one seat
has buys. And let's remember we went to a seventeen
game schedule, so we really have no long term data
to see how that affects teams. So let me just
throw out some numbers. Again, they're not wow numbers, but
at least you can understand what has happened in the

(57:03):
AFC and NFC Championships since twenty ten twenty fifteen. Since
twenty ten, the home team is nineteen and nine straight up,
sixteen and five since twenty thirteen against the spread fourteen
and fourteen. The over under thirteen fourteen and one, so
one game over five hundred. But in the last three

(57:26):
years the over under is one in five in championship week,
so five unders and one over. How have the number
one seeds done? Since twenty fifteen? The number one seed
is ten and four straight up, eight and six against
the spread and eight and six over under. If we

(57:46):
have a one versus a two seed like Casey and Buffalo. Again,
this is one of those situations where it's changed because
remember the two seed used to have a bye, but
the one seed is still three and zero against the
spread since twenty nineteen and six and two straight up
in ats going all the way back. Since twenty and fifteen,

(58:06):
that is the number one against the number two seed.
The number one seed has done very well. How about
teams like Kansas City, excuse me, like Washington that are
off back to back road wins. Well, those teams have
gone two and seven straight up and three and six
against the spread. But while that three and six record

(58:29):
is a negative, the last two times it's happened teams
that won back to back games are now playing in
this round are actually two and oh. They won in
twenty twenty and twenty and twenty one. Here's one to
circle Kelly for next week if Washington wins. Since two
thousand and ten, a Super Bowl team that played at

(58:51):
least their last two games on the road have gone
eight and oh against the spread. Obviously, Washington's the only
team that can apply to I know Dan listening giving
me the finger right now as he's going to enjoy
his Philadelphia Eagles next Sunday. But that's only if Washington wins.
Just a quick look ahead. In the AFC and NFC championships,

(59:11):
totals over fifty one have gone six and two to
the over. We don't have any of those totals of
under fifty one fifty one or less zero and four
over under the last three years, so four unders and
zero overs and seven to ten and one over under
since twenty ten, and teams with more rest both the

(59:33):
Chiefs and the Commanders have more rest this week. Those
teams ten and six ats the last eight years. And
I know VR talks about the playoffs and the straight
up winner and how they cover, well I can say
this the last twelve years, the straight up winner has
gone twenty and four. The only four teams that won

(59:53):
the game and failed to cover a seven and a
half point favorite last year, a seven and a half
point FAI favor in twenty seventeen, and eight point favorite
in twenty fourteen. So only one team that was favored
as a dog was a favorite of a touchdown or
less that won the game and failed to cover was

(01:00:14):
the twenty twenty one LA Rams against the forty nine ers.
They won by three length three and a half. So
again no wow numbers, but just to give you a
quick overview of what the Championship Series have done the
past few seasons.

Speaker 1 (01:00:29):
Thank you Ralph Michaels as always at Calsports LVWT dot Buzz,
backslash or mixture. You guys check out his wager tap
dot com page. Outside of his premium plays, he does
a ton of free stuff, including lots of great newsletters
as well. If you guys missed some of those playoff tidbits,

(01:00:49):
you're really messed out. All right, guys, we will be
back for the Super Bowl. Of course, Marco and Teddy
both have premium plays up for the AFC and NFC
Championship games over there on their page. And give a
shout out to all of you guys for hanging out
with us here all football season long. Also thank you
to VR the Greek Gambler as you guys know him,

(01:01:10):
Andy Lang, the Proptologist, Art de Caesar for always giving
us that look behind the counter they're at the Westgate
super Book and of course Ralph coming in saying you
didn't have anything that was that spicy and dropping in
a nice Commander's CNA that I can't wait to use
the rest of the week on the shows. Again, thanking
to all of you guys, best of luck this week.

(01:01:31):
We'll see you for the Super Bowl.