January 15, 2025 • 45 mins
Welcome to Bet On It, your ultimate source for NFL picks, NFL predictions, and the top best bets for the Divisional Weekend! Our expert panel – Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Joe Raineri, Gianni the Greek, Andy Lang, Teddy Covers, and Ralph Michaels – provides deep analysis, insider tips, and exclusive betting strategies to give you the edge this NFL season. From odds and player props to teasers and underdog picks, we've got everything you need for a successful NFL Divisional betting experience.
Bet On It NFL Divisional Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Texans vs Chiefs
04:40 Commanders vs Lions
07:59 3-Day All Access Special!!
08:22 Rams vs Eagles
12:08 Ravens vs Bills
14:37 VR's GOLD
20:09 Prop Shop with Andy Lang
23:50 TNA with Ralph Michaels
28:07 Best Bets
Bet On It NFL Divisional Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:15 Texans vs Chiefs
04:40 Commanders vs Lions
07:59 3-Day All Access Special!!
08:22 Rams vs Eagles
12:08 Ravens vs Bills
14:37 VR's GOLD
20:09 Prop Shop with Andy Lang
23:50 TNA with Ralph Michaels
28:07 Best Bets
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to bet on It, Kelly Stewart. Here for the
divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, We've got Marco DiAngelo,
Joe verneering. Of course, Teddy Covers sitting there on the
in seat, but he does get to go first. Saturday,
four thirty pm on ABC, we got the Houston Texans
all the way up to some nines here on the
(00:21):
wager Talk odds screen Teddy at Kansas City forty one
and a half. We know those odds are well closer
to eight and a half, but the books are protecting
themselves from those elusive teasers that we know they got
hammered on early.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
And of course we talk about nine as being a
teaser protection line, and certainly the books that take a
lot of teaser action have a nine on this game.
Eight eight and a half the more prevailing number for
Houston and Kansas City. Hey, look, the Texans did something
last week that Super Bowl winners do. In fact, the
last three teams to do it all won the Super Bowl.
(00:57):
Of course, the last time it happened was two thousand
and two, the Buccaneers, the Ravens and the forty nine Ers.
In eighty nine, were all Super Bowl winners that all
had four interceptions the interception retur for a touchdown in
four sacks in a playoff game, and that dates back
to nineteen sixty three. So only four previous teams have
won it and have done it, and the last three have.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
All won the Big Game in February.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So certainly that seems a bit ambitious Fort Houston at
this stage. And of course, I mean the Texans, they
had that entire game changed on one play. You know,
they're third and sixteen, there's two and a half minutes
left in the first half. They've been trailing throughout, they
haven't done anything offensively.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
CJ. Snoud CJ.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Stroud fumbles the snap and next thing you know, boom,
he picks it up, fires downfield for a thirty four
yard completion and all of a sudden, the Texans going nuts,
lead at halftime, control of the second half. So we'll
give Stroud credit for making a big play when they
needed it. You know, he said he was mad at
himself afterwards, even dropping the ball. You know, tomco ryans
the play you made in that fumble snap to throw
(02:02):
a hunches and that's a play that just sparked our
entire team, seeing the way our guys responded after we
made the play. Outstanding performance by CJ.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Great.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
That was against a very flawed Chargers team, a Charger
team that really only had one pass catcher, a Chargers
team that had major issues on the offensive line, And
of course that was last week. Now, these two teams
played a very meaningful game in Wink sixteen for both
teams twenty seven to nineteen Kansas City one. They covered.
They were minus four slash minus three and a half
(02:31):
in that ball game. That was a Saturday game in
the midst of that stretch where both teams played three
games in eleven days, both teams seven to thirteam on
third downs, both teams five point five point four yards
were playing that game. The difference two Texans turnovers and
one to three for Houston in.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
The red zone. Will that happen again?
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Because it was a very even box scorer, and you
don't normally see that when you talk about laying more
than a touchdown in a playoff game. So there's certainly
reasons to point towards Houston here. I ain't gonna to
do it, though, all right, The Chiefs played their best
football in December. Make no mistake about it. This team
was riddled with injuries early on that all kinds of
offensive issues. That was not the case down the stretch. Mahomes,
(03:12):
of course six and zero in the divisional rounds, the
most wins without a loss in any playoff round in
NFL history, and Kansas City after resting their starters week
eighteen as healthy and of course having the buyo last week,
there is healthy. They've been all year. Chris Jones is healthy.
He hasn't played since Week fifteen. Isaia Pacheco was supposed
to play, Juan Taylor is supposed to play. Starting quarterback
(03:33):
Jalen Watson, who's been on injured reserve since Week seven.
He's been practicing and could be activated. And let's not
forget a receiving corp that was very limited all year. Well,
they traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquis Brown, Hollywood. Brown came
back from injury, Xavier Worthy showing a lot of growth
late in the season, Travis Kelcey. You know they've been
(03:53):
treating with kid gloves all year. All right, So I
think Casey's offense right now for this game probably better
than what we saw most of the season. And their
defense is still elite. How does Houston score if they
fall behind?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
That worries me a lot. I understand it's not easy
to lay with Kansas City. I get it.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
They went on an zero to seven ats stretch from
October through December, but their last three tries as favorites
two against playoff teams, three and oh straight up, three
and oh against the spread. Kansas City is a class here.
It's only look for this matchup. I don't think Houston
will respond well if they fall behind. It's Chiefs or
pass for this better.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Chiefs are passed for Teddy, and I'll be patiently waiting
to see if I can't find a spot to tease
that same Chiefs team. Next game up is Saturday, eight
pm on Fox Washington nine and a half point underdog
at Detroit fifty five and a half. Marco. This game
is my best bet, so I'm not going to do
(04:52):
any follow up questions. Tell me about this one.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
All right, Kelly.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
This one might be a little square, and sometimes you
know it is hip to b square. There's only one
way I can look at this game, and that is
I look at these two offenses. I see fifty five
and a half, and I think it's not enough. You
look at what Detroit did last week. They did something
that was totally not their mo They surprised Tampa Bay.
(05:18):
They had sixty nine offensive plays to just forty four
for Tampa Bay. Now we know that the Washington offense
can go up and down the field, but they did
it methodically last week. They had a seventeen play drive
against Tampa. Tampa just couldn't get on the field with
the number of plays that they were able to run.
(05:40):
And then a couple costly turnovers, the one by Baker
Mayfield late in the game really hurt them and ended
up losing. But more importantly, the teams didn't take chances
in the game because it was always a one possession game.
Nobody ever got separation. When you look at this Lion's offense,
nobody has stopped them all year. And what makes you
(06:02):
think that Washington's going to be able to stop them
like they stopped Tampa Bay last week? They're not last
five games of the season, the Lions scored thirty one
or more points in every single game. What's that mean
for this game in the total? Well, when they score,
Washington's going to have to answer or vice versa. If
(06:23):
the Detroit defense that we saw most of the season
shows up and gives up points, they're going to continue
to trade points. It's not going to be a field
goal battle. We did see the Lions play their best
defensive game of the year the final game of the
regular season against Minnesota, but was that really the Lions
(06:44):
or was it a combination of that bad offensive line
from Minnesota, because we saw the same exact thing happen
to Minnesota the very next week against the Rams. I
think both teams go up and down the field, and
as they said, whenever the game gets separation where it's
ten points or more, you're gonna have whoever's trailing's not
(07:05):
gonna settle for field goals. They're gonna go on fourth down,
on the fourth and twos, the fourth and threes, and
we will get points in this game. Personally, I see
this game as like a thirty eight to twenty seven game.
I do lean to Detroit in the game. I got
them with the thirty eight, but we got eleven point
margin there on a nine and a half point spread.
(07:27):
I like the total better. I think there's more room there.
I think this game gets into the sixties. I don't
see how the winning team is not at thirty five
or more points in this one. It's square, But sometimes
it's okay to be SpongeBob square pants. When you cash
a ticket, Oh.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Boy, that's gonna turn into a meme. You just wait,
Marco DiAngelo. One of these days, I'm gonna figure out
how to use the internet and do that to you Sunday.
Wait before I get into Sunday, I forgot to tell you,
guys about our three day all access pass, get one
day free. So if you buy a three day you're
getting a free date four days for the price of three.
(08:07):
For just sixty nine dollars, you guys can maximize your
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No coupon code needed. Wager talk dot Com. Joe Ranieri,
You're up next. And this is a game that I
have not quite been able to figure out. And that's
because I haven't been able to figure out the Philadelphia
(08:28):
Eagles all season long. Sunday, three pm Eastern on NBC.
The Rams are a six point underdog total forty four.
Let me guess you've got a first half play for
me here, d Shoker.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
I'm shocked you went that way, cav really, I have,
of course, I have my first half play for you here,
and it makes total sense in this game. By the way,
this is I think there's only one matchup of teams
that have not already played each other this season. Here
these two teams faced the.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Back in week twelve.
Speaker 5 (09:02):
The Eagles went into La that week I believe it
was a Sunday night game in fact, and they beat
the Rams thirty seven to twenty. Now, I'll tell you this,
that was a pretty close game. In the first half
cal it was seven to six. Rams were leading until
about the last minute in thirty and then the Eagles
scored a touchdown before the half ended. And quite honestly,
(09:25):
like they have done all season long, they have dominated
the third and fourth quarter of games. They eventually outscored
the Rams twenty four to seven in the second half,
and outside of a late empty net or touchdown what
about a minute left, that game wasn't even remotely close
except for the first half, which is usually where we see. Actually,
(09:50):
both of these teams start very very slow throughout this season.
But Philadelphia, no doubt not great in the first quarter,
much better in a six second dominate time of possession,
and the ball in the third and fourth quarter. The
bottom line is since Week five for Philadelphia, they win
football games by running the ball and playing great defense.
(10:13):
That's how it works with Philly. For the Rams, they've
got a situation here where they're gonna have a little
less rest now because their game was on Monday. It
has been just a world win with this team, with
the fires in LA and scheduling and everything else. Not
to mention, we know going to Philadelphia, looking at the weather,
(10:35):
not exactly going to be a great sunny day there
in Philly for this game. Weather could also play a
role in this, but the Rams defense the Eagles defense
thrive on getting turnovers. Both of these teams don't turn
the ball over a ton. To me, instead of trying
(10:56):
to figure out whether or not the Eagles can pull
away and if they do, and it likely is going
to happen in the second half, I think looking at
this game and splitting in half and looking at that
first half under to me, expecting a big defensive effort here. Listen,
we've seen Philadelphia twelve two and one to the under
(11:17):
in the last fifteen home playoff games, their game's average
closing number of around forty three forty three and a half.
In those home playoff games, the totals thirty six. That's
what they end up scoring. So I like the full
game under in the ear. I certainly like twenty one
and a half. Why you can get it. I like
(11:38):
the under in this game. I think the defenses for
both these teams is what's gonna shine. And we already
have documented Philadelphia and their ability to run away with
games in the second half. Don't know that they'll do
it here, but I have a pretty good feeling that
this game is going to be one score heading into
the break, and I don't think we get over three touchdowns.
(11:58):
I'm looking at the first half under in this one.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
Yeah, I like the game under, Joe, So if you
like the first half under, that is a nice little correlation,
all right. A game that I kind of got stuck
with breaking down and reality is I hadn't really dig
deep to the side a side that I liked here.
Sunday six thirty pm Eastern on CBS Baltimore is a
one point favorite now at Buffalo total fifty one and
(12:23):
a half. This one opened the Bills being the favorite.
I thought, all right, the Bills. Last week, I took
the Broncos. Broncos marched right down the field, score seven.
I am amped. I'm going all right, here's Bonnicks. I
owe him an apology. I will be buying a jersey.
But that one's pretty much all she wrote. The Broncos
(12:45):
threw out all their trick plays and everything else, just
could not get this Bills team stopped one of the
best red zone offenses. And then you got on the
flip side, you got the Ravens who just absolutely throttled
the Steelers. Yeah, they let them come back there a
little bit in the second half. But my first thought
press is do I really want to bet against Lamar
Jackson and Derrick Henry here? And then my chat with
(13:06):
Pam Maldonado and aerl Epstein reminded me that I said
Josh Allen was going to be the MVP this year,
and I think that still holds true. Josh Allen is
by far the most valuable player for his team. But
I have to kind of coincide with my original Super
Bowl winner in the Ravens. This team is insanely talented.
(13:27):
This team has absolutely showed they are one of the
best rushing defenses in the country. They're giving up less
than seventy eight yards on the ground per game. Let's
also not forget these two played each other in Week
four and if you remember, the Ravens just curb stomped
the Bills thirty five to ten. So keep in mind
here when looking later on in the season, I think
(13:49):
that the Ravens have more mark he wins. They are
eight and three this season against playoff teams and the
Bills are currently three and three against teams that made
the postseason. Is much which I love Josh Allen. I
think that he is an intricate part to his team.
I like the Ravens here. Nine and three on the
road this year will last twelve road games. Sorry. I
(14:10):
know that the Bills were slotted as favorites, and I
think that sometimes those opening numbers are really telling. But
I think that sharp money coming in on the Ravens
fast and furious right out of the gate was the
right side here. I like the Ravens to upset Bills
Mafia in a absolutely other close one. I think this
one would not shock anybody in the slightest twenty seven
(14:32):
to twenty four finals still squeaks under the total there
by half a point each and every week VR joins
us to give us some of that golds and this
week is no different.
Speaker 6 (14:43):
VR.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
One of you dug up for us this week in
the NFL.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
All right, the public hasn't really gotten to the window yet,
as we know, when it comes to the playoffs, just
like the regular season, most of the recreational money comes
in late, meaning twenty four hours to about an hour
before kickle rest ashore that money is overwhelming as opposed
to the sharp money bettingsen to get money that may
come in earlier in the week. That's why we see
(15:07):
it all the time, especially come playoffs and Super Bowl,
where there's just a ton of value, especially leading in
the kickoff because the lines get shaded even more so
towards those biases. We see it in the Super Bowl
with the overs being bet by the recreational betters jacked
up jack dub jack dump and Super Bowl Sunday. The
(15:29):
betting sin that gets come in and pick off a
lot of those unders, and the books are just fine
with it because it helps limit their risk as long
as they don't get middled. So far here's what we're
seeing in the NFL. Start off with Houston and Kansas City.
I mean, Houston's coming off a really good game at
home quarterback a higher success rate Den's expected against a
(15:52):
better defense than he's ultimately going to be facing this week.
But the line isn't reflecting Houston's decide because Kansas City
money continues to come in from the sharp betters, and
more importantly, you see the books having defense against the teaser.
We know how powerful they are in the playoffs, and
that's why you're seeing this Kansas City line continue to
climb up. Problem is this we already know we have
(16:14):
a line to compare it to Kansas City closed as
a three and a half point favorite against this same
team just a few weeks ago. Now, you got to
add in home field advantage in the playoffs, you got
to add in the return of some injured players, plus
the extra rest. But how many points is all that worth?
I think this line's gotten a little bit away from
Kansas City. I think there's some value if you could
(16:35):
tease Kansas City down through those long numbers, especially if
some public money comes in on Houston to help lower that.
But I just can't lay it right now. I know
some guys that did buy the half a point when
it came out it's seven and a half and laid
the seven on Kansas City.
Speaker 8 (16:49):
I think that was a good bet.
Speaker 7 (16:50):
Also short money on the under under forty two and
a half under forty two as well.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
Commander's Lions.
Speaker 7 (16:57):
Another teaser protection move where the books are jacking it up,
where you now have to use about a seven point
teaser to go through the wong numbers that we know
that's no good. You don't need to use the teaser,
especially when it comes to the playoffs and we know
you pick the winner more times than not, you're going
to cash your ticket. Favors blowout the dogs or the
dogs win out right more times than not. We saw
it last week and it's a trend that continues year
(17:18):
after year in the playoffs, and I think that's why
you're seeing this line climb more and more and more.
Listen as well as Jaden Daniels has played. Eventually, I
think the regression towards the mean is common.
Speaker 8 (17:28):
You got a rookie quarterback on the road.
Speaker 7 (17:31):
Detroit's a hype team that's been waiting all season getting
it done throughout the season. More importantly, they've been winning
by margin, unlike Kansas City. So when it comes to
this game, I do like the Lions a little bit,
Rams and Eagles.
Speaker 8 (17:45):
This is what I can tell you.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
I don't have an opinion on this game, but I
did see some Eagles money when this line opened, but
the resistance came in at six.
Speaker 8 (17:53):
That's why you don't see sixes across the board.
Speaker 7 (17:55):
It'll be interesting to see when the betting public gets
to the window if they fire on the Eagles, especially
if they use them in teasers, because they.
Speaker 8 (18:01):
Don't care about wonging.
Speaker 7 (18:02):
They just care about bringing down the favorite to a
pretty much a money line, or if they start money
line parlaying this Eagles team just to win at home.
We have a game to compare to just November twenty fourth,
the Eagles were three point favorites, so you could do
the adjustment yourself, coupled with the playoff home field advantage.
And then finally, Bill's Ravens, we have a flip of
(18:23):
the favorite. Bill's open as the favorite, no surprise, they're
at home, but the money's come in on Baltimore, at
least from some of the sharp betters.
Speaker 8 (18:32):
Not a big move.
Speaker 7 (18:32):
When you go from plus one to minus one doesn't
tell you all that much, especially when the opportunity is
there to lock in both money lines at plus money.
What'll be interesting to see is will it get to
one and a half. Because if it gets to one
and a half, rest the short you will see even
the betting sent to gets and sharp betters come in
and tease that buffalo side up through that three, through
that six, seven, excuse me, and get it up to
(18:55):
seven and a half. I think that's why we're seeing
minus one, even with some juice on that one more sign.
Speaker 8 (19:00):
I have one set of.
Speaker 7 (19:01):
Power ratings that made Born and More about a three
point favorite in this game. I have another set of
power ratings that make them about a two point favorite.
But add in home field advantage and you got the
game pretty much where it is at a pick them.
We have seen under money from the sharp betters on
pretty much every game, no surprise weather, coupled with jacked
(19:21):
up totals to protect against the public betting these ones over.
But if you miss any of the under numbers you liked,
if you liked it under, just wait till closer to
game time. I think these starts should start to trickle
up until unless you get terrible weather. Pretty much what
we're looking at. Don't forget. Last call is on Saturday
and Sunday where we will have up to the minute
(19:43):
information for you.
Speaker 8 (19:44):
So hope you do some damage this divisional weekend.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
Yeah, we have a great time on Saturdays and Sundays
with VR. We get college basketball, we get tennis. Sometimes
we get just the most off the wall things. We
don't care. If it's making us money, I want to
bet it. VR. We'll see you this weekend, bright and
early there on the West Coast before the divisional round
of the NFL playoffs. Good luck this week and do
(20:08):
some damage. All right, let's welcome in the proptologists, Andy
Lang at Bump Sports and at Landy Lang Betts. Andy,
what are you gonna do? I mean, you've been a
TikTok star. Where are we gonna move all these great
is this trend your friend video?
Speaker 6 (20:26):
Well, all the videos are up on all the different ones,
you know, Twitter, Instagram, so we'll just keep going. I
have my own or I have my handle a blue
Sky if that's your cup of tea, So they'll still
be out there. But yeah, it's a bummer that we're
losing TikTok. It's such such a confusing situation going on there,
but still plenty of places to see the videos we
(20:47):
do every day. As this trend your friend.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
As a TikTok hater, I'm not mad because now I
don't have to use it. But I did really enjoy
recording on there because they have a great editing feature.
I digress. Our audience is here because well, they want
to know the best prop bet for the weekend. Andy.
I dabbled in some college props last weekend, kind of frustrating.
(21:09):
Dabbling in the wild card round even more frustrating, helped
me make sense of what we need to be looking
for for the divisional round. I feel like all season long,
I want to be a little contrarian and I want
to take unders, and I want to take no's or
yes to throw an interception or some of those types
of things in some of my lineups, and that just
hasn't been the case over the last few weeks. It
(21:30):
seems well rather square.
Speaker 6 (21:34):
Well, guess who's back back again. No, it's not me,
it's David Montgomery. I didn't know if we were going
to see this guy and Kelly. This is a guy
who's been seeing the doctor and he's back healthy, and
I am happy to have him back in my life
because his over receiving yards prop was dynamite before he
got injured. The number is fourteen and a half and
I will happily take to overhear. This is a guy
(21:55):
who has gone over seven games in a row that
he started, and not only that, he's had twenty yards
at least in all of those games. I think people
got to picture David Montgomery is the muscle in the backfield,
the guy that gets the short yardage. He's a very
good receiver. Multiple games he's had not one, not two,
but three catches and this fourteen and a half, this
(22:16):
is this is doable in one catch. I love that
he's coming back from injury, fresh legs, full participant, so
he doesn't have any limitations. I saw an interview with him.
He looks happy to be back, and those fresh legs.
I bet they have a few calls. I bet they
have a few tricks up their sleeve with him. Jamier
Gibbs has done a great job filling in, but what
a great time to bring in David Montgomery and give
(22:37):
Gibbs a little bit of a rest because of the
workload that he's had to endure. So David Montgomery over
fourteen and a half receiving, I think he's going to
be one hundred percent. And this is a Washington team
that gives up twenty three yards receiving per game to
running backs. Dave Montgomery best bet and as always, Kelly,
take two. Do what David Montgomery did. Take two of
these and call me in the morning. That apparently has
worked for him.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
I love that for David, not so much for my
best bet, but we'll get into that later on in
the show. Andy, anything you'd like to leave our audience with.
Speaker 6 (23:07):
Yeah, we've got NFL best bets that are up. We've
finished the season really strong and continued into the playoffs
twelve and six the last two weeks, and we're running
that special by three days Get the Fourth Free. We
have a five percent UFC best bet that is up,
so that'll come with it, as well as all of
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four days. By three days, get the fourth Free.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Love it at Bump Sports at Andy Laning Betts. Make
sure you guys are given him a follow. He's one
of the best, and of course he's our resident proptologist. Now,
normally I'd be welcoming in art to Caesar from the
Westgates Superbook, but he is a little under the weather,
so we're going to wish him well and hope he
will be back Saturday for last call to give us
a look behind the counter there at the super Book.
(23:51):
But now we're on to Ralph Michaels. He brings us
trends and angles all football season long College football NFL.
But Ralph, I'm a special loaded right now at wager
talk dot com, a five percent play for the National
Championship New customers only. You're gonna get it for one
dollar using coupon code new thirty four. I'm excited, and
(24:13):
I hope we're on I hope you're on the same side.
Speaker 9 (24:16):
You know what, Kel, I just want to mention this
number one in college football bowls going eleven and two
eighty five percent, My college football best bets four percent,
five percent eight n O. And listen to this My
football best bets four percent and five percent, fourteen and
one ninety three percent New customers, if you've never bought it,
way to talk. This is the reason why, and my
(24:39):
five percent top play will cost you one dollar.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
That is wonderful. You know what else is wonderful, Ralph.
That guide you put together for the playoffs, filled with
tons of great info WT Dot Buzz backslash RM give
us some tidbits for the divisional round.
Speaker 9 (24:57):
Now, I just want you guys to know this is
gonna be a pretty vanila one. Why because we have
a small sample size, But I just want it's important
to know history when you're picking the future. So let's
just look at the numbers and you can make your
own determinations. Since twenty ten, Kelly Playoff teams that have
had a buy have gone thirty six and twelve straight up,
(25:18):
that is seventy five percent. They've gone twenty three and
twenty four against the spread forty nine percent. This one
surprised me though. In this round, teams that have had
a buy twenty eight overs and twenty unders. That is
a strong fifty eight point three percent to the over.
When I break down those teams off a by those
(25:40):
teams that are a home favorite of seven or more,
they've gone forty five percent against the spread and fifty
five percent to the over, and when you have a
small home favorite, they have actually done better. Small home
favorites have gone fifty six percent against the spread and
over under twelve overs, seven unders since two thousand and six.
(26:03):
That is sixty three point two percent to the under
couple subsets.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
I ran col.
Speaker 9 (26:10):
If you have a bye and your team is off
an away win, like the Commanders, you have to go
on the road for the wild Card round. And this round,
the home team like Detroit with a bye only eleven
and fourteen against the spread forty four percent. The overunder
exactly the same eleven and fourteen forty four percent. And
(26:31):
if a team like the Commanders one as an away
dog and are now playing a team off a bye,
those teams like Detroit have only gone seven and eleven
thirty nine percent, So not quite what you would think
when you have a rested team versus the team on
back to back road games off a dog win. Two
(26:53):
more things I just want to share with you. In
this round, with the team off a bye, if the
road team went over the last game, we have twelve
overs and six unders.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
And in this.
Speaker 9 (27:08):
Round, if both teams played in the wildcard the home
team is exactly fifty to fifty. The over under is
fifty five points six percent to the over. That is
the Bills, Ravens and Eagles Rams. But in this round,
if both teams played in the wildcard and they each
scored twenty five points, it's only happened nine times since
(27:29):
two thousand and six. Those teams eight and one to
the over, So the strongest trend, again a small sample size,
actually leans Bills and Ravens over the total.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Ooh, I'm happy to know that my best bet got
included in there. A couple of tidbits. Speaking of best bets,
we're gonna get Ralph out of here wt dot buzz
backslash RM guys. New customers get his five percent play
on the National Championship for just one dollar using kupon
code new thirty four. All right, guys, let's get into
(28:03):
some of those best bets. Time to bring back Joe,
Teddy and Marco. Per usual, Marco DiAngelo gets to go
up first. Marco, I'm excited to hear about your best bet,
but more excited to hear about what you've got going
on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 4 (28:19):
Well, Kelly, we ran it last week, We're running it
again this week. You guys like the special tremendous response
and whatould we do? Well? We delivered winners again, another
five percent winner on Saturday. It was with the Houston Texans.
First quarter looked a little shaky, but after that they
settled down in what a second half they had easy
(28:41):
win on the Texans. Probably are going to have another
five percent this weekend, just waiting on confirming weather and
everything else. But you won't miss a play if you
grab the seven day package all Access use coupon code
m D seven to seven. You'll pick up Sex seven
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those five percent plays by themselves are thirty five dollars.
All right, let's get to this week's best bet, and
we are gonna go to this city of brotherly love.
And I know our beloved producer maybe he was sweating
a little bit in the first half as Philadelphia got
off to a very slow start in that game, Jalen
(29:26):
hurts well, he looked like he was rusty that he
missed the final three weeks of the season. But they
found a way to win that game, or did green
Bay find a way to lose it? Green Bay definitely
Gift wrapped that game for Philadelphia last week with the
four turnovers. But there's no question of last week's winners,
(29:47):
Philadelphia was the least impressive. So why am I jumping
on them? Well, that's when I like a team, because
I love public perception because it's usually wrong and people
are gonna look at Philadelphia and say, just how I
opened it. Green Bay gave them the game. I look
at that game and I'm looking at the Rams. The
Rams are coming off an impressive win on Monday night.
(30:09):
We were on the Rams. Why were we on the Rams? Well,
a couple different reasons. First of all, we knew that
why we didn't know, but we thought for sure that
Minnesota might have a carryover effect from that Detroit game.
On the final week of the regular season, they went
from the number one seed to the number five seed,
and unfortunately for Sam Darnold, he got to see those
(30:32):
ghosts again. He had a horrible game against Detroit and
he had probably just as bad or even worse against
the Rams last week. The Rams had a lot of
things going for them. One everybody questioned what was going
to be the mental psyche of the Rams with everything
going on in California with the fires. They came out
(30:55):
and they played that they were playing for a city
and trying to give everybody, you know, three and a
half hours of distraction.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
They did that.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
But let's also not forget facing Minnesota was very easy
for that defense. Okay, the offensive line for Minnesota hasn't
played well the last couple of weeks, but when you're
preparing a game plan for Minnesota, it should have been
pretty easy for Sean McVay because it was like looking
in a mirror Kevin O'Connell, coach of the Vikings, where'd
(31:27):
he cut his teeth? Yeah, with Sean McVay being on
the offense, so he basically was defending his own offense
and they did it very well.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
It's gonna be a.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Different story this week. And what I liked last week,
you've got to expect Jalen Hurts to play better. This
week showed a little bit of the rest. It was
a horrible first half. Still didn't have a lot of
yards last week, only through for one twenty one. But
as bad as the passing game was, Barkley still got
one hundred and nineteen yards four point eight per yards
(32:00):
per carry. He'll get more this week against the Rams,
they'll have a little bit of better balance. And the
one thing that the Rams have to concern themselves with
that they didn't have to last week. They've got a
quarterback that can run the football versus a quarterback that
was a deer cotton headlights and was a complete statue
(32:21):
in the pocket last week. I like Philadelphia to get
the job done. I like taking teams that win ugly,
and there's no question that that win for Philadelphia was ugly,
but they got it done. I like to take those
teams the next week. And let's be honest about the Rams.
They're six and one down the stretch, so yeah, they
look like they got a ton of momentum. But the
(32:42):
only playoff teams they faced over the final seven games
of the season they faced Buffalo. They beat them in
that shootout game forty four forty two. But if you remember,
I mean, I think you were on it as well, Kelly.
We were all over the Rams in that game because
it was an absolute horrible scheduling spot. Were the Buffalo Bills.
They were coming off the revenge game against Kansas City.
(33:04):
Then that Sunday night blizzard Laugher they had against the
forty nine ers and oh who did they have after
the Rams? Yeah, a team called the Detroit Lions. That
was a horrible scheduling spot, the sandwich of all sandwiches,
and the Rams delivered in that one. They still gave
up forty two points in that one, and then we
(33:25):
look at them going down the stretch. I just I'm
not impressed with the teams they beat. I'll go ahead,
I'll take Philly. They get the job done.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
Lay it.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
I know Dan smiling. Let's hope we're both smiling after
Sunday lay it with the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
God, Marco's such a suck up. I just can't handle
it anymore. No, all jokes aside Marco Marcus is. I
think Marco's been one of the hottest guys at Wader
Talk all season long, so I can't be against him here.
And it is what it is. So next up to Joel,
who probably hasn't know the first half play for.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
You guys, Yeah, pretty much, Yep, that's what we do.
We're gonna go to Kansas City. If it ain't prompt people,
we ain't fixing it here and you guys know that.
So we're gonna go to that Kansas City and Houston game,
and again another one of these matchups that we've already
seen this season. You may recalled it was Week sixteen
(34:24):
in fact, where Tank Dall ended up getting hurt there
and that kind of changed the trajectory of everything. However,
prior to that, this was a pretty darn good game
between these two teams. And now the Texans get that
playoff win last week against the Chargers. And how did
they get it against the Chargers. Well, they got it
(34:46):
because of that pass rush and because of that defense.
And I think, having already seen Patrick Mahomes here and
this Kansas City offense, I think that is going to
help their effort here early. And why early, Well, you
guys know, if you've been watching the show all season long,
we've been telling you here that when it comes to
(35:07):
first half plays, the Texans and Allions were the two
teams that you wanted to back because they were the
best against the number early in games. Unlike Detroit, however,
Houston fell apart in the second half all year long.
But there is absolutely no doubt fourteen and four against
(35:28):
the first half spread this season. Demiko Ryans in fact,
twenty six, eleven, twenty six and eleven against the number
in the first half. As as a head coach here
to Houston Texans twenty six and nine in the first half.
When CJ. Stroud is his quarterback, this team comes out firing.
They game plan very well. Their in game adjustments, however,
(35:53):
are a bit head scratching. Keep in mind also that
the kin City Chiefs. While and I'm not suggesting that
Houston is winning this game in any way, shape or form, however,
it's been a few minutes since Kansas City has had
to play any meaningful football. In fact, I believe the
last meaningful snap that their starters took we're back on
(36:15):
December twenty fifth. What does that mean, Well, the Chiefs
usually come out slow, but that usually works to their advantage.
Why because nobody wins games in the second half like
the Kansas City Chiefs. They have been absolutely unbelievable this year. Now,
(36:37):
keep in mind, I mean they went when the starters played,
they went pretty much across the board here and lost
only what one game this season here, But they have
done an amazing job. When their back is against the
wall in the third quarter or the fourth quarter. This
team plays its best in the second half when they
(37:00):
are usually trailing. I mean, it is unbelievable when you
look at the numbers here on what this team has
been able to do when trailing at the halftime. In fact,
it shouldn't be new to you guys. Since twenty twenty
the Chiefs twenty one to twelve straight up when trailing
at the half at sixty four percent. That it's nobody's
(37:21):
even remotely close to what they do is. In fact,
the rest of the NFL only wins about twenty three
percent of the games outright when they are trailing at
the half. Not my homes, not Andy Reid, not the
chief So hopefully what's gonna happen here's the Texans are
going to keep this thing close early and then guess
(37:41):
what the second half bet is going to be in
this game. Yes, if it ain't broke, we ain't fixing it.
I expect the Texans to be very competitive early. I
expect Kansas City to win it late. If it ain't broke,
we ain't fixing it. Col I'll take the Texans in
the first half in this one.
Speaker 1 (37:59):
I don't blame you if you like the dog betam Early,
the Kansas City Chiefs will find a way to win
and possibly cover Setdy covers a game that I broke
down earlier. Baltimore now at one point favorite at Buffalo.
Is that your best bet? Or we opposite?
Speaker 2 (38:18):
No, we're together on this one. Kel.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
But before I talk about Baltimore and Buffalo, do you
want to let you know about the Teddy seven special
right now? Seven day all access just seventy seven dollars
if you use promo code Teddy seven at checkout sixty
seven percent wild Card weekend.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
We made money for the clients last week.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
There is a five percent big ticket available sixty nine
percent run sixty nine dude with five percent big tickets
in the NFL. So again, promo code Teddy seven at
checkout to get that seven day.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
All access pass.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
So Baltimore has done this before, all right, Ravens have
won their initial playoff game and they've been unable to
follow up with victories. It's happened repeatedly in the Lamar
Jackson her He's never more Lamar Jackson E or the
never more than one playoff game in a season. And
obviously last week a pretty dominant performing against Pittsburgh. Very
(39:16):
interesting quotes after the game boy, they sounded like a mature,
veteran team. Rakwan Smith, We're just getting started. This is
the appetizer to what we have.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
On the menu.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Derrick Henry We're not gonna get two ahead of ourselves
and go off the walls about how great we are.
I'm gonna stay level headed, enjoy this one, watch the film,
see what we can get better at, and move on
to the next one. That's a veteran mentality for Baltimore,
a team I think that has learned from previous failures.
He got only two playoff wins in Lamar Jackson's previous
(39:48):
six seasons. I don't usually put too much emphasis on
the regular season, meaning I'm not gonna put too much
emphasis on this one.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
It was back in September.
Speaker 3 (39:56):
Both teams very different now than what they were that
being said Derek Henryder eighty seven yard touchdown on the
first Ravens drive. It was twenty one to three by
middew for the second. But the key Buffalo only had
twelve first downs in that game, all right. They could
not move the football against Baltimore's defense. Ravens seven point
nine yards per play, Bills just four point one. And
(40:17):
I know that Buffalo has gotten better season degressed. I
know this is probably the best season Josh Allen has
ever had, all right, Lois sach rate second in turnover rate,
an offsive line that's ranked third and past block win rate,
and the Buffalo's offsitive line of state's healthy all season.
But this is a different animal when you're talking about
Baltimore right now. The Ravens, since they moved Kyle Hamilton
(40:40):
back to deep safety in Week eleven, number one in
the NFL in expected points allowed per play on defense
that includes the postseason. We watched these two teams all year.
My gut says the Ravens are better, especially on the
defense side of the ball. The betting markets are saying
Baltimore is the best team in the end. I agree
(41:02):
right now. The Ravens certainly have that the number one
of the NFL and the yards wuld play on offense.
Their zero point yards per play better on offense in
the Bills the number five on d in yards per
play full season, they weren't even good in September. Buffalo's
died for twentieth in that regard. I'm not fading Baltimore
Ravens or pass for this big.
Speaker 1 (41:22):
All right, And that's kind of how I feel about
my best bet.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Now.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
Look, I know I can tend to be a real
contrarian here, and I know that the Lions fans are
going to be really mad at me. And hey, look,
Jared Goff deserves his flowers. He is probably also in
my top three to be VP. He has played his
proverbial but off all season long. I know the Lions
(41:45):
don't lose games as favorites except for that one time
to the Bucks way back in Week two. The overs
hit in basically six of the last games that the
Commanders have been an underdog, So points being at a
premium doesn't really fit this narrative here. And Jared Goff
doesn't really beat himself right three games at last fourteen
(42:09):
he's thrown an interception that means eleven mistake free games.
So why the hell am I betting the Washington football team. Well,
let's be honest. We know that David Montgomery is going
to be back, but that doesn't mean that there aren't
still injuries lingering, specifically on the defensive side of this
(42:29):
Lions team. Yes, the bye week is helpful. Sometimes you
get some of those guys back and sometimes you don't.
And there's a lot of question marks there.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Now.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
I know this isn't college football, but I found it
really interesting. During the college football playoffs, every team that
got to buy ended up being a detriment. The Lions
have been rocking and rolling for weeks. Maybe that buy
hurts them, maybe it doesn't. But the Commanders won six
straight to get themselves into this position. I have thought
(42:59):
Jalen Daniel Jayden Daniels, excuse me, all season long, has
just done a terrific job. Nine interceptions for a rookie
quarterback is almost phenomenal over thirty five hundred yards and
of course, twenty five touchdowns. He's got a trio of
wide receivers, most notably the veteran on that side of
the ball, Terry McLaurin, who has done a great job
(43:20):
to make this offense explosive. I know, nine and alf
points seems like, hey, just take the Lions in a teaser,
even though it's non traditional, take the Lions in a
money line parlay. Fine. I'm not calling for the outright
upset here. I'm just saying that nine and a half
(43:41):
points is a lot for a Commander's team who showed
excellent poise in a hostile environment last week in Tampa.
Not one second did Daniels show me that he was
a rookie quarterback on that road and that Bucks defense
you've heard me talk about all season long. I like
this Commander's team. I know we joke about their namesake
(44:02):
quite often, but I think this is going to be
a closer game than the spread indicates. I do think
it is going to be high flying with these dynamic offenses,
and if the Commander's defense can show up like they
did last week, put some pressure on Jared Goff and
company be able to shut down the run, that is
going to be the difference maker here. Again, I think
(44:25):
Washington has all the momentum in the world, and they
didn't necessarily expect to make the playoffs when this season started.
I do think as far as that coaching staff goes,
Cliff Kingsbury is awesome at play calling. I think there
are so many reasons to like the Lions here that
everybody is discrediting this Washington team. But do not do that.
(44:46):
Nine and a half points is too many. Give me
the Washington Football whatever their team name is now. I
like them plus the points, and good luck to all
those that put the Lions in a moneyline parlay. I hope,
I hope you don't get caught up being too choky.
All right, let's bring the guys back for a farewell.
(45:07):
We'll be back next week for the AFC and NFC
Championship games. It's gonna be a real fun one, guys,
Marco D'Angelo, Joe Ranieri, Teddy covers Yanni, the Greek, Andy Langen,
of course Ralph Michaels until next week. Let's bet on it.
Welcome to bet on It, Kelly Stewart. Here for the
divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, We've got Marco DiAngelo,
Joe verneering. Of course, Teddy Covers sitting there on the
in seat, but he does get to go first. Saturday,
four thirty pm on ABC, we got the Houston Texans
all the way up to some nines here on the
(00:21):
wager Talk odds screen Teddy at Kansas City forty one
and a half. We know those odds are well closer
to eight and a half, but the books are protecting
themselves from those elusive teasers that we know they got
hammered on early.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, no doubt.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
And of course we talk about nine as being a
teaser protection line, and certainly the books that take a
lot of teaser action have a nine on this game.
Eight eight and a half the more prevailing number for
Houston and Kansas City. Hey, look, the Texans did something
last week that Super Bowl winners do. In fact, the
last three teams to do it all won the Super Bowl.
(00:57):
Of course, the last time it happened was two thousand
and two, the Buccaneers, the Ravens and the forty nine Ers.
In eighty nine, were all Super Bowl winners that all
had four interceptions the interception retur for a touchdown in
four sacks in a playoff game, and that dates back
to nineteen sixty three. So only four previous teams have
won it and have done it, and the last three have.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
All won the Big Game in February.
Speaker 3 (01:22):
So certainly that seems a bit ambitious Fort Houston at
this stage. And of course, I mean the Texans, they
had that entire game changed on one play. You know,
they're third and sixteen, there's two and a half minutes
left in the first half. They've been trailing throughout, they
haven't done anything offensively.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
CJ. Snoud CJ.
Speaker 3 (01:41):
Stroud fumbles the snap and next thing you know, boom,
he picks it up, fires downfield for a thirty four
yard completion and all of a sudden, the Texans going nuts,
lead at halftime, control of the second half. So we'll
give Stroud credit for making a big play when they
needed it. You know, he said he was mad at
himself afterwards, even dropping the ball. You know, tomco ryans
the play you made in that fumble snap to throw
(02:02):
a hunches and that's a play that just sparked our
entire team, seeing the way our guys responded after we
made the play. Outstanding performance by CJ.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Great.
Speaker 3 (02:10):
That was against a very flawed Chargers team, a Charger
team that really only had one pass catcher, a Chargers
team that had major issues on the offensive line, And
of course that was last week. Now, these two teams
played a very meaningful game in Wink sixteen for both
teams twenty seven to nineteen Kansas City one. They covered.
They were minus four slash minus three and a half
(02:31):
in that ball game. That was a Saturday game in
the midst of that stretch where both teams played three
games in eleven days, both teams seven to thirteam on
third downs, both teams five point five point four yards
were playing that game. The difference two Texans turnovers and
one to three for Houston in.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
The red zone. Will that happen again?
Speaker 3 (02:49):
Because it was a very even box scorer, and you
don't normally see that when you talk about laying more
than a touchdown in a playoff game. So there's certainly
reasons to point towards Houston here. I ain't gonna to
do it, though, all right, The Chiefs played their best
football in December. Make no mistake about it. This team
was riddled with injuries early on that all kinds of
offensive issues. That was not the case down the stretch. Mahomes,
(03:12):
of course six and zero in the divisional rounds, the
most wins without a loss in any playoff round in
NFL history, and Kansas City after resting their starters week
eighteen as healthy and of course having the buyo last week,
there is healthy. They've been all year. Chris Jones is healthy.
He hasn't played since Week fifteen. Isaia Pacheco was supposed
to play, Juan Taylor is supposed to play. Starting quarterback
(03:33):
Jalen Watson, who's been on injured reserve since Week seven.
He's been practicing and could be activated. And let's not
forget a receiving corp that was very limited all year. Well,
they traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquis Brown, Hollywood. Brown came
back from injury, Xavier Worthy showing a lot of growth
late in the season, Travis Kelcey. You know they've been
(03:53):
treating with kid gloves all year. All right, So I
think Casey's offense right now for this game probably better
than what we saw most of the season. And their
defense is still elite. How does Houston score if they
fall behind?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
That worries me a lot. I understand it's not easy
to lay with Kansas City. I get it.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
They went on an zero to seven ats stretch from
October through December, but their last three tries as favorites
two against playoff teams, three and oh straight up, three
and oh against the spread. Kansas City is a class here.
It's only look for this matchup. I don't think Houston
will respond well if they fall behind. It's Chiefs or
pass for this better.
Speaker 1 (04:31):
Chiefs are passed for Teddy, and I'll be patiently waiting
to see if I can't find a spot to tease
that same Chiefs team. Next game up is Saturday, eight
pm on Fox Washington nine and a half point underdog
at Detroit fifty five and a half. Marco. This game
is my best bet, so I'm not going to do
(04:52):
any follow up questions. Tell me about this one.
Speaker 2 (04:55):
All right, Kelly.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
This one might be a little square, and sometimes you
know it is hip to b square. There's only one
way I can look at this game, and that is
I look at these two offenses. I see fifty five
and a half, and I think it's not enough. You
look at what Detroit did last week. They did something
that was totally not their mo They surprised Tampa Bay.
(05:18):
They had sixty nine offensive plays to just forty four
for Tampa Bay. Now we know that the Washington offense
can go up and down the field, but they did
it methodically last week. They had a seventeen play drive
against Tampa. Tampa just couldn't get on the field with
the number of plays that they were able to run.
(05:40):
And then a couple costly turnovers, the one by Baker
Mayfield late in the game really hurt them and ended
up losing. But more importantly, the teams didn't take chances
in the game because it was always a one possession game.
Nobody ever got separation. When you look at this Lion's offense,
nobody has stopped them all year. And what makes you
(06:02):
think that Washington's going to be able to stop them
like they stopped Tampa Bay last week? They're not last
five games of the season, the Lions scored thirty one
or more points in every single game. What's that mean
for this game in the total? Well, when they score,
Washington's going to have to answer or vice versa. If
(06:23):
the Detroit defense that we saw most of the season
shows up and gives up points, they're going to continue
to trade points. It's not going to be a field
goal battle. We did see the Lions play their best
defensive game of the year the final game of the
regular season against Minnesota, but was that really the Lions
(06:44):
or was it a combination of that bad offensive line
from Minnesota, because we saw the same exact thing happen
to Minnesota the very next week against the Rams. I
think both teams go up and down the field, and
as they said, whenever the game gets separation where it's
ten points or more, you're gonna have whoever's trailing's not
(07:05):
gonna settle for field goals. They're gonna go on fourth down,
on the fourth and twos, the fourth and threes, and
we will get points in this game. Personally, I see
this game as like a thirty eight to twenty seven game.
I do lean to Detroit in the game. I got
them with the thirty eight, but we got eleven point
margin there on a nine and a half point spread.
(07:27):
I like the total better. I think there's more room there.
I think this game gets into the sixties. I don't
see how the winning team is not at thirty five
or more points in this one. It's square, But sometimes
it's okay to be SpongeBob square pants. When you cash
a ticket, Oh.
Speaker 1 (07:46):
Boy, that's gonna turn into a meme. You just wait,
Marco DiAngelo. One of these days, I'm gonna figure out
how to use the internet and do that to you Sunday.
Wait before I get into Sunday, I forgot to tell you,
guys about our three day all access pass, get one
day free. So if you buy a three day you're
getting a free date four days for the price of three.
(08:07):
For just sixty nine dollars, you guys can maximize your
sports betting experience at wager talk dot com. Now this
is for a limited time only, so head over there.
No coupon code needed. Wager talk dot Com. Joe Ranieri,
You're up next. And this is a game that I
have not quite been able to figure out. And that's
because I haven't been able to figure out the Philadelphia
(08:28):
Eagles all season long. Sunday, three pm Eastern on NBC.
The Rams are a six point underdog total forty four.
Let me guess you've got a first half play for
me here, d Shoker.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
I'm shocked you went that way, cav really, I have,
of course, I have my first half play for you here,
and it makes total sense in this game. By the way,
this is I think there's only one matchup of teams
that have not already played each other this season. Here
these two teams faced the.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Back in week twelve.
Speaker 5 (09:02):
The Eagles went into La that week I believe it
was a Sunday night game in fact, and they beat
the Rams thirty seven to twenty. Now, I'll tell you this,
that was a pretty close game. In the first half
cal it was seven to six. Rams were leading until
about the last minute in thirty and then the Eagles
scored a touchdown before the half ended. And quite honestly,
(09:25):
like they have done all season long, they have dominated
the third and fourth quarter of games. They eventually outscored
the Rams twenty four to seven in the second half,
and outside of a late empty net or touchdown what
about a minute left, that game wasn't even remotely close
except for the first half, which is usually where we see. Actually,
(09:50):
both of these teams start very very slow throughout this season.
But Philadelphia, no doubt not great in the first quarter,
much better in a six second dominate time of possession,
and the ball in the third and fourth quarter. The
bottom line is since Week five for Philadelphia, they win
football games by running the ball and playing great defense.
(10:13):
That's how it works with Philly. For the Rams, they've
got a situation here where they're gonna have a little
less rest now because their game was on Monday. It
has been just a world win with this team, with
the fires in LA and scheduling and everything else. Not
to mention, we know going to Philadelphia, looking at the weather,
(10:35):
not exactly going to be a great sunny day there
in Philly for this game. Weather could also play a
role in this, but the Rams defense the Eagles defense
thrive on getting turnovers. Both of these teams don't turn
the ball over a ton. To me, instead of trying
(10:56):
to figure out whether or not the Eagles can pull
away and if they do, and it likely is going
to happen in the second half, I think looking at
this game and splitting in half and looking at that
first half under to me, expecting a big defensive effort here. Listen,
we've seen Philadelphia twelve two and one to the under
(11:17):
in the last fifteen home playoff games, their game's average
closing number of around forty three forty three and a half.
In those home playoff games, the totals thirty six. That's
what they end up scoring. So I like the full
game under in the ear. I certainly like twenty one
and a half. Why you can get it. I like
(11:38):
the under in this game. I think the defenses for
both these teams is what's gonna shine. And we already
have documented Philadelphia and their ability to run away with
games in the second half. Don't know that they'll do
it here, but I have a pretty good feeling that
this game is going to be one score heading into
the break, and I don't think we get over three touchdowns.
(11:58):
I'm looking at the first half under in this one.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
Yeah, I like the game under, Joe, So if you
like the first half under, that is a nice little correlation,
all right. A game that I kind of got stuck
with breaking down and reality is I hadn't really dig
deep to the side a side that I liked here.
Sunday six thirty pm Eastern on CBS Baltimore is a
one point favorite now at Buffalo total fifty one and
(12:23):
a half. This one opened the Bills being the favorite.
I thought, all right, the Bills. Last week, I took
the Broncos. Broncos marched right down the field, score seven.
I am amped. I'm going all right, here's Bonnicks. I
owe him an apology. I will be buying a jersey.
But that one's pretty much all she wrote. The Broncos
(12:45):
threw out all their trick plays and everything else, just
could not get this Bills team stopped one of the
best red zone offenses. And then you got on the
flip side, you got the Ravens who just absolutely throttled
the Steelers. Yeah, they let them come back there a
little bit in the second half. But my first thought
press is do I really want to bet against Lamar
Jackson and Derrick Henry here? And then my chat with
(13:06):
Pam Maldonado and aerl Epstein reminded me that I said
Josh Allen was going to be the MVP this year,
and I think that still holds true. Josh Allen is
by far the most valuable player for his team. But
I have to kind of coincide with my original Super
Bowl winner in the Ravens. This team is insanely talented.
(13:27):
This team has absolutely showed they are one of the
best rushing defenses in the country. They're giving up less
than seventy eight yards on the ground per game. Let's
also not forget these two played each other in Week
four and if you remember, the Ravens just curb stomped
the Bills thirty five to ten. So keep in mind
here when looking later on in the season, I think
(13:49):
that the Ravens have more mark he wins. They are
eight and three this season against playoff teams and the
Bills are currently three and three against teams that made
the postseason. Is much which I love Josh Allen. I
think that he is an intricate part to his team.
I like the Ravens here. Nine and three on the
road this year will last twelve road games. Sorry. I
(14:10):
know that the Bills were slotted as favorites, and I
think that sometimes those opening numbers are really telling. But
I think that sharp money coming in on the Ravens
fast and furious right out of the gate was the
right side here. I like the Ravens to upset Bills
Mafia in a absolutely other close one. I think this
one would not shock anybody in the slightest twenty seven
(14:32):
to twenty four finals still squeaks under the total there
by half a point each and every week VR joins
us to give us some of that golds and this
week is no different.
Speaker 6 (14:43):
VR.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
One of you dug up for us this week in
the NFL.
Speaker 7 (14:47):
All right, the public hasn't really gotten to the window yet,
as we know, when it comes to the playoffs, just
like the regular season, most of the recreational money comes
in late, meaning twenty four hours to about an hour
before kickle rest ashore that money is overwhelming as opposed
to the sharp money bettingsen to get money that may
come in earlier in the week. That's why we see
(15:07):
it all the time, especially come playoffs and Super Bowl,
where there's just a ton of value, especially leading in
the kickoff because the lines get shaded even more so
towards those biases. We see it in the Super Bowl
with the overs being bet by the recreational betters jacked
up jack dub jack dump and Super Bowl Sunday. The
(15:29):
betting sin that gets come in and pick off a
lot of those unders, and the books are just fine
with it because it helps limit their risk as long
as they don't get middled. So far here's what we're
seeing in the NFL. Start off with Houston and Kansas City.
I mean, Houston's coming off a really good game at
home quarterback a higher success rate Den's expected against a
(15:52):
better defense than he's ultimately going to be facing this week.
But the line isn't reflecting Houston's decide because Kansas City
money continues to come in from the sharp betters, and
more importantly, you see the books having defense against the teaser.
We know how powerful they are in the playoffs, and
that's why you're seeing this Kansas City line continue to
climb up. Problem is this we already know we have
(16:14):
a line to compare it to Kansas City closed as
a three and a half point favorite against this same
team just a few weeks ago. Now, you got to
add in home field advantage in the playoffs, you got
to add in the return of some injured players, plus
the extra rest. But how many points is all that worth?
I think this line's gotten a little bit away from
Kansas City. I think there's some value if you could
(16:35):
tease Kansas City down through those long numbers, especially if
some public money comes in on Houston to help lower that.
But I just can't lay it right now. I know
some guys that did buy the half a point when
it came out it's seven and a half and laid
the seven on Kansas City.
Speaker 8 (16:49):
I think that was a good bet.
Speaker 7 (16:50):
Also short money on the under under forty two and
a half under forty two as well.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
Commander's Lions.
Speaker 7 (16:57):
Another teaser protection move where the books are jacking it up,
where you now have to use about a seven point
teaser to go through the wong numbers that we know
that's no good. You don't need to use the teaser,
especially when it comes to the playoffs and we know
you pick the winner more times than not, you're going
to cash your ticket. Favors blowout the dogs or the
dogs win out right more times than not. We saw
it last week and it's a trend that continues year
(17:18):
after year in the playoffs, and I think that's why
you're seeing this line climb more and more and more.
Listen as well as Jaden Daniels has played. Eventually, I
think the regression towards the mean is common.
Speaker 8 (17:28):
You got a rookie quarterback on the road.
Speaker 7 (17:31):
Detroit's a hype team that's been waiting all season getting
it done throughout the season. More importantly, they've been winning
by margin, unlike Kansas City. So when it comes to
this game, I do like the Lions a little bit,
Rams and Eagles.
Speaker 8 (17:45):
This is what I can tell you.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
I don't have an opinion on this game, but I
did see some Eagles money when this line opened, but
the resistance came in at six.
Speaker 8 (17:53):
That's why you don't see sixes across the board.
Speaker 7 (17:55):
It'll be interesting to see when the betting public gets
to the window if they fire on the Eagles, especially
if they use them in teasers, because they.
Speaker 8 (18:01):
Don't care about wonging.
Speaker 7 (18:02):
They just care about bringing down the favorite to a
pretty much a money line, or if they start money
line parlaying this Eagles team just to win at home.
We have a game to compare to just November twenty fourth,
the Eagles were three point favorites, so you could do
the adjustment yourself, coupled with the playoff home field advantage.
And then finally, Bill's Ravens, we have a flip of
(18:23):
the favorite. Bill's open as the favorite, no surprise, they're
at home, but the money's come in on Baltimore, at
least from some of the sharp betters.
Speaker 8 (18:32):
Not a big move.
Speaker 7 (18:32):
When you go from plus one to minus one doesn't
tell you all that much, especially when the opportunity is
there to lock in both money lines at plus money.
What'll be interesting to see is will it get to
one and a half. Because if it gets to one
and a half, rest the short you will see even
the betting sent to gets and sharp betters come in
and tease that buffalo side up through that three, through
that six, seven, excuse me, and get it up to
(18:55):
seven and a half. I think that's why we're seeing
minus one, even with some juice on that one more sign.
Speaker 8 (19:00):
I have one set of.
Speaker 7 (19:01):
Power ratings that made Born and More about a three
point favorite in this game. I have another set of
power ratings that make them about a two point favorite.
But add in home field advantage and you got the
game pretty much where it is at a pick them.
We have seen under money from the sharp betters on
pretty much every game, no surprise weather, coupled with jacked
(19:21):
up totals to protect against the public betting these ones over.
But if you miss any of the under numbers you liked,
if you liked it under, just wait till closer to
game time. I think these starts should start to trickle
up until unless you get terrible weather. Pretty much what
we're looking at. Don't forget. Last call is on Saturday
and Sunday where we will have up to the minute
(19:43):
information for you.
Speaker 8 (19:44):
So hope you do some damage this divisional weekend.
Speaker 1 (19:48):
Yeah, we have a great time on Saturdays and Sundays
with VR. We get college basketball, we get tennis. Sometimes
we get just the most off the wall things. We
don't care. If it's making us money, I want to
bet it. VR. We'll see you this weekend, bright and
early there on the West Coast before the divisional round
of the NFL playoffs. Good luck this week and do
(20:08):
some damage. All right, let's welcome in the proptologists, Andy
Lang at Bump Sports and at Landy Lang Betts. Andy,
what are you gonna do? I mean, you've been a
TikTok star. Where are we gonna move all these great
is this trend your friend video?
Speaker 6 (20:26):
Well, all the videos are up on all the different ones,
you know, Twitter, Instagram, so we'll just keep going. I
have my own or I have my handle a blue
Sky if that's your cup of tea, So they'll still
be out there. But yeah, it's a bummer that we're
losing TikTok. It's such such a confusing situation going on there,
but still plenty of places to see the videos we
(20:47):
do every day. As this trend your friend.
Speaker 1 (20:49):
As a TikTok hater, I'm not mad because now I
don't have to use it. But I did really enjoy
recording on there because they have a great editing feature.
I digress. Our audience is here because well, they want
to know the best prop bet for the weekend. Andy.
I dabbled in some college props last weekend, kind of frustrating.
(21:09):
Dabbling in the wild card round even more frustrating, helped
me make sense of what we need to be looking
for for the divisional round. I feel like all season long,
I want to be a little contrarian and I want
to take unders, and I want to take no's or
yes to throw an interception or some of those types
of things in some of my lineups, and that just
hasn't been the case over the last few weeks. It
(21:30):
seems well rather square.
Speaker 6 (21:34):
Well, guess who's back back again. No, it's not me,
it's David Montgomery. I didn't know if we were going
to see this guy and Kelly. This is a guy
who's been seeing the doctor and he's back healthy, and
I am happy to have him back in my life
because his over receiving yards prop was dynamite before he
got injured. The number is fourteen and a half and
I will happily take to overhear. This is a guy
(21:55):
who has gone over seven games in a row that
he started, and not only that, he's had twenty yards
at least in all of those games. I think people
got to picture David Montgomery is the muscle in the backfield,
the guy that gets the short yardage. He's a very
good receiver. Multiple games he's had not one, not two,
but three catches and this fourteen and a half, this
(22:16):
is this is doable in one catch. I love that
he's coming back from injury, fresh legs, full participant, so
he doesn't have any limitations. I saw an interview with him.
He looks happy to be back, and those fresh legs.
I bet they have a few calls. I bet they
have a few tricks up their sleeve with him. Jamier
Gibbs has done a great job filling in, but what
a great time to bring in David Montgomery and give
(22:37):
Gibbs a little bit of a rest because of the
workload that he's had to endure. So David Montgomery over
fourteen and a half receiving, I think he's going to
be one hundred percent. And this is a Washington team
that gives up twenty three yards receiving per game to
running backs. Dave Montgomery best bet and as always, Kelly,
take two. Do what David Montgomery did. Take two of
these and call me in the morning. That apparently has
worked for him.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
I love that for David, not so much for my
best bet, but we'll get into that later on in
the show. Andy, anything you'd like to leave our audience with.
Speaker 6 (23:07):
Yeah, we've got NFL best bets that are up. We've
finished the season really strong and continued into the playoffs
twelve and six the last two weeks, and we're running
that special by three days Get the Fourth Free. We
have a five percent UFC best bet that is up,
so that'll come with it, as well as all of
our Australian Open plays, NBA, NHL everything for the next
four days. By three days, get the fourth Free.
Speaker 1 (23:29):
Love it at Bump Sports at Andy Laning Betts. Make
sure you guys are given him a follow. He's one
of the best, and of course he's our resident proptologist. Now,
normally I'd be welcoming in art to Caesar from the
Westgates Superbook, but he is a little under the weather,
so we're going to wish him well and hope he
will be back Saturday for last call to give us
a look behind the counter there at the super Book.
(23:51):
But now we're on to Ralph Michaels. He brings us
trends and angles all football season long College football NFL.
But Ralph, I'm a special loaded right now at wager
talk dot com, a five percent play for the National
Championship New customers only. You're gonna get it for one
dollar using coupon code new thirty four. I'm excited, and
(24:13):
I hope we're on I hope you're on the same side.
Speaker 9 (24:16):
You know what, Kel, I just want to mention this
number one in college football bowls going eleven and two
eighty five percent, My college football best bets four percent,
five percent eight n O. And listen to this My
football best bets four percent and five percent, fourteen and
one ninety three percent New customers, if you've never bought it,
way to talk. This is the reason why, and my
(24:39):
five percent top play will cost you one dollar.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
That is wonderful. You know what else is wonderful, Ralph.
That guide you put together for the playoffs, filled with
tons of great info WT Dot Buzz backslash RM give
us some tidbits for the divisional round.
Speaker 9 (24:57):
Now, I just want you guys to know this is
gonna be a pretty vanila one. Why because we have
a small sample size, But I just want it's important
to know history when you're picking the future. So let's
just look at the numbers and you can make your
own determinations. Since twenty ten, Kelly Playoff teams that have
had a buy have gone thirty six and twelve straight up,
(25:18):
that is seventy five percent. They've gone twenty three and
twenty four against the spread forty nine percent. This one
surprised me though. In this round, teams that have had
a buy twenty eight overs and twenty unders. That is
a strong fifty eight point three percent to the over.
When I break down those teams off a by those
(25:40):
teams that are a home favorite of seven or more,
they've gone forty five percent against the spread and fifty
five percent to the over, and when you have a
small home favorite, they have actually done better. Small home
favorites have gone fifty six percent against the spread and
over under twelve overs, seven unders since two thousand and six.
(26:03):
That is sixty three point two percent to the under
couple subsets.
Speaker 2 (26:08):
I ran col.
Speaker 9 (26:10):
If you have a bye and your team is off
an away win, like the Commanders, you have to go
on the road for the wild Card round. And this round,
the home team like Detroit with a bye only eleven
and fourteen against the spread forty four percent. The overunder
exactly the same eleven and fourteen forty four percent. And
(26:31):
if a team like the Commanders one as an away
dog and are now playing a team off a bye,
those teams like Detroit have only gone seven and eleven
thirty nine percent, So not quite what you would think
when you have a rested team versus the team on
back to back road games off a dog win. Two
(26:53):
more things I just want to share with you. In
this round, with the team off a bye, if the
road team went over the last game, we have twelve
overs and six unders.
Speaker 2 (27:07):
And in this.
Speaker 9 (27:08):
Round, if both teams played in the wildcard the home
team is exactly fifty to fifty. The over under is
fifty five points six percent to the over. That is
the Bills, Ravens and Eagles Rams. But in this round,
if both teams played in the wildcard and they each
scored twenty five points, it's only happened nine times since
(27:29):
two thousand and six. Those teams eight and one to
the over, So the strongest trend, again a small sample size,
actually leans Bills and Ravens over the total.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Ooh, I'm happy to know that my best bet got
included in there. A couple of tidbits. Speaking of best bets,
we're gonna get Ralph out of here wt dot buzz
backslash RM guys. New customers get his five percent play
on the National Championship for just one dollar using kupon
code new thirty four. All right, guys, let's get into
(28:03):
some of those best bets. Time to bring back Joe,
Teddy and Marco. Per usual, Marco DiAngelo gets to go
up first. Marco, I'm excited to hear about your best bet,
but more excited to hear about what you've got going
on over at wager talk dot com.
Speaker 4 (28:19):
Well, Kelly, we ran it last week, We're running it
again this week. You guys like the special tremendous response
and whatould we do? Well? We delivered winners again, another
five percent winner on Saturday. It was with the Houston Texans.
First quarter looked a little shaky, but after that they
settled down in what a second half they had easy
(28:41):
win on the Texans. Probably are going to have another
five percent this weekend, just waiting on confirming weather and
everything else. But you won't miss a play if you
grab the seven day package all Access use coupon code
m D seven to seven. You'll pick up Sex seven
days all Access all plays for seventy seven dollars. Remember
(29:05):
those five percent plays by themselves are thirty five dollars.
All right, let's get to this week's best bet, and
we are gonna go to this city of brotherly love.
And I know our beloved producer maybe he was sweating
a little bit in the first half as Philadelphia got
off to a very slow start in that game, Jalen
(29:26):
hurts well, he looked like he was rusty that he
missed the final three weeks of the season. But they
found a way to win that game, or did green
Bay find a way to lose it? Green Bay definitely
Gift wrapped that game for Philadelphia last week with the
four turnovers. But there's no question of last week's winners,
(29:47):
Philadelphia was the least impressive. So why am I jumping
on them? Well, that's when I like a team, because
I love public perception because it's usually wrong and people
are gonna look at Philadelphia and say, just how I
opened it. Green Bay gave them the game. I look
at that game and I'm looking at the Rams. The
Rams are coming off an impressive win on Monday night.
(30:09):
We were on the Rams. Why were we on the Rams? Well,
a couple different reasons. First of all, we knew that
why we didn't know, but we thought for sure that
Minnesota might have a carryover effect from that Detroit game.
On the final week of the regular season, they went
from the number one seed to the number five seed,
and unfortunately for Sam Darnold, he got to see those
(30:32):
ghosts again. He had a horrible game against Detroit and
he had probably just as bad or even worse against
the Rams last week. The Rams had a lot of
things going for them. One everybody questioned what was going
to be the mental psyche of the Rams with everything
going on in California with the fires. They came out
(30:55):
and they played that they were playing for a city
and trying to give everybody, you know, three and a
half hours of distraction.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
They did that.
Speaker 4 (31:03):
But let's also not forget facing Minnesota was very easy
for that defense. Okay, the offensive line for Minnesota hasn't
played well the last couple of weeks, but when you're
preparing a game plan for Minnesota, it should have been
pretty easy for Sean McVay because it was like looking
in a mirror Kevin O'Connell, coach of the Vikings, where'd
(31:27):
he cut his teeth? Yeah, with Sean McVay being on
the offense, so he basically was defending his own offense
and they did it very well.
Speaker 2 (31:36):
It's gonna be a.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Different story this week. And what I liked last week,
you've got to expect Jalen Hurts to play better. This
week showed a little bit of the rest. It was
a horrible first half. Still didn't have a lot of
yards last week, only through for one twenty one. But
as bad as the passing game was, Barkley still got
one hundred and nineteen yards four point eight per yards
(32:00):
per carry. He'll get more this week against the Rams,
they'll have a little bit of better balance. And the
one thing that the Rams have to concern themselves with
that they didn't have to last week. They've got a
quarterback that can run the football versus a quarterback that
was a deer cotton headlights and was a complete statue
(32:21):
in the pocket last week. I like Philadelphia to get
the job done. I like taking teams that win ugly,
and there's no question that that win for Philadelphia was ugly,
but they got it done. I like to take those
teams the next week. And let's be honest about the Rams.
They're six and one down the stretch, so yeah, they
look like they got a ton of momentum. But the
(32:42):
only playoff teams they faced over the final seven games
of the season they faced Buffalo. They beat them in
that shootout game forty four forty two. But if you remember,
I mean, I think you were on it as well, Kelly.
We were all over the Rams in that game because
it was an absolute horrible scheduling spot. Were the Buffalo Bills.
They were coming off the revenge game against Kansas City.
(33:04):
Then that Sunday night blizzard Laugher they had against the
forty nine ers and oh who did they have after
the Rams? Yeah, a team called the Detroit Lions. That
was a horrible scheduling spot, the sandwich of all sandwiches,
and the Rams delivered in that one. They still gave
up forty two points in that one, and then we
(33:25):
look at them going down the stretch. I just I'm
not impressed with the teams they beat. I'll go ahead,
I'll take Philly. They get the job done.
Speaker 5 (33:33):
Lay it.
Speaker 4 (33:34):
I know Dan smiling. Let's hope we're both smiling after
Sunday lay it with the Eagles.
Speaker 1 (33:41):
God, Marco's such a suck up. I just can't handle
it anymore. No, all jokes aside Marco Marcus is. I
think Marco's been one of the hottest guys at Wader
Talk all season long, so I can't be against him here.
And it is what it is. So next up to Joel,
who probably hasn't know the first half play for.
Speaker 5 (34:02):
You guys, Yeah, pretty much, Yep, that's what we do.
We're gonna go to Kansas City. If it ain't prompt people,
we ain't fixing it here and you guys know that.
So we're gonna go to that Kansas City and Houston game,
and again another one of these matchups that we've already
seen this season. You may recalled it was Week sixteen
(34:24):
in fact, where Tank Dall ended up getting hurt there
and that kind of changed the trajectory of everything. However,
prior to that, this was a pretty darn good game
between these two teams. And now the Texans get that
playoff win last week against the Chargers. And how did
they get it against the Chargers. Well, they got it
(34:46):
because of that pass rush and because of that defense.
And I think, having already seen Patrick Mahomes here and
this Kansas City offense, I think that is going to
help their effort here early. And why early, Well, you
guys know, if you've been watching the show all season long,
we've been telling you here that when it comes to
(35:07):
first half plays, the Texans and Allions were the two
teams that you wanted to back because they were the
best against the number early in games. Unlike Detroit, however,
Houston fell apart in the second half all year long.
But there is absolutely no doubt fourteen and four against
(35:28):
the first half spread this season. Demiko Ryans in fact,
twenty six, eleven, twenty six and eleven against the number
in the first half. As as a head coach here
to Houston Texans twenty six and nine in the first half.
When CJ. Stroud is his quarterback, this team comes out firing.
They game plan very well. Their in game adjustments, however,
(35:53):
are a bit head scratching. Keep in mind also that
the kin City Chiefs. While and I'm not suggesting that
Houston is winning this game in any way, shape or form, however,
it's been a few minutes since Kansas City has had
to play any meaningful football. In fact, I believe the
last meaningful snap that their starters took we're back on
(36:15):
December twenty fifth. What does that mean, Well, the Chiefs
usually come out slow, but that usually works to their advantage.
Why because nobody wins games in the second half like
the Kansas City Chiefs. They have been absolutely unbelievable this year. Now,
(36:37):
keep in mind, I mean they went when the starters played,
they went pretty much across the board here and lost
only what one game this season here, But they have
done an amazing job. When their back is against the
wall in the third quarter or the fourth quarter. This
team plays its best in the second half when they
(37:00):
are usually trailing. I mean, it is unbelievable when you
look at the numbers here on what this team has
been able to do when trailing at the halftime. In fact,
it shouldn't be new to you guys. Since twenty twenty
the Chiefs twenty one to twelve straight up when trailing
at the half at sixty four percent. That it's nobody's
(37:21):
even remotely close to what they do is. In fact,
the rest of the NFL only wins about twenty three
percent of the games outright when they are trailing at
the half. Not my homes, not Andy Reid, not the
chief So hopefully what's gonna happen here's the Texans are
going to keep this thing close early and then guess
(37:41):
what the second half bet is going to be in
this game. Yes, if it ain't broke, we ain't fixing it.
I expect the Texans to be very competitive early. I
expect Kansas City to win it late. If it ain't broke,
we ain't fixing it. Col I'll take the Texans in
the first half in this one.
Speaker 1 (37:59):
I don't blame you if you like the dog betam Early,
the Kansas City Chiefs will find a way to win
and possibly cover Setdy covers a game that I broke
down earlier. Baltimore now at one point favorite at Buffalo.
Is that your best bet? Or we opposite?
Speaker 2 (38:18):
No, we're together on this one. Kel.
Speaker 3 (38:20):
But before I talk about Baltimore and Buffalo, do you
want to let you know about the Teddy seven special
right now? Seven day all access just seventy seven dollars
if you use promo code Teddy seven at checkout sixty
seven percent wild Card weekend.
Speaker 2 (38:35):
We made money for the clients last week.
Speaker 3 (38:36):
There is a five percent big ticket available sixty nine
percent run sixty nine dude with five percent big tickets
in the NFL. So again, promo code Teddy seven at
checkout to get that seven day.
Speaker 2 (38:50):
All access pass.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
So Baltimore has done this before, all right, Ravens have
won their initial playoff game and they've been unable to
follow up with victories. It's happened repeatedly in the Lamar
Jackson her He's never more Lamar Jackson E or the
never more than one playoff game in a season. And
obviously last week a pretty dominant performing against Pittsburgh. Very
(39:16):
interesting quotes after the game boy, they sounded like a mature,
veteran team. Rakwan Smith, We're just getting started. This is
the appetizer to what we have.
Speaker 2 (39:26):
On the menu.
Speaker 3 (39:26):
Derrick Henry We're not gonna get two ahead of ourselves
and go off the walls about how great we are.
I'm gonna stay level headed, enjoy this one, watch the film,
see what we can get better at, and move on
to the next one. That's a veteran mentality for Baltimore,
a team I think that has learned from previous failures.
He got only two playoff wins in Lamar Jackson's previous
(39:48):
six seasons. I don't usually put too much emphasis on
the regular season, meaning I'm not gonna put too much
emphasis on this one.
Speaker 2 (39:55):
It was back in September.
Speaker 3 (39:56):
Both teams very different now than what they were that
being said Derek Henryder eighty seven yard touchdown on the
first Ravens drive. It was twenty one to three by
middew for the second. But the key Buffalo only had
twelve first downs in that game, all right. They could
not move the football against Baltimore's defense. Ravens seven point
nine yards per play, Bills just four point one. And
(40:17):
I know that Buffalo has gotten better season degressed. I
know this is probably the best season Josh Allen has
ever had, all right, Lois sach rate second in turnover rate,
an offsive line that's ranked third and past block win rate,
and the Buffalo's offsitive line of state's healthy all season.
But this is a different animal when you're talking about
Baltimore right now. The Ravens, since they moved Kyle Hamilton
(40:40):
back to deep safety in Week eleven, number one in
the NFL in expected points allowed per play on defense
that includes the postseason. We watched these two teams all year.
My gut says the Ravens are better, especially on the
defense side of the ball. The betting markets are saying
Baltimore is the best team in the end. I agree
(41:02):
right now. The Ravens certainly have that the number one
of the NFL and the yards wuld play on offense.
Their zero point yards per play better on offense in
the Bills the number five on d in yards per
play full season, they weren't even good in September. Buffalo's
died for twentieth in that regard. I'm not fading Baltimore
Ravens or pass for this big.
Speaker 1 (41:22):
All right, And that's kind of how I feel about
my best bet.
Speaker 2 (41:25):
Now.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
Look, I know I can tend to be a real
contrarian here, and I know that the Lions fans are
going to be really mad at me. And hey, look,
Jared Goff deserves his flowers. He is probably also in
my top three to be VP. He has played his
proverbial but off all season long. I know the Lions
(41:45):
don't lose games as favorites except for that one time
to the Bucks way back in Week two. The overs
hit in basically six of the last games that the
Commanders have been an underdog, So points being at a
premium doesn't really fit this narrative here. And Jared Goff
doesn't really beat himself right three games at last fourteen
(42:09):
he's thrown an interception that means eleven mistake free games.
So why the hell am I betting the Washington football team. Well,
let's be honest. We know that David Montgomery is going
to be back, but that doesn't mean that there aren't
still injuries lingering, specifically on the defensive side of this
(42:29):
Lions team. Yes, the bye week is helpful. Sometimes you
get some of those guys back and sometimes you don't.
And there's a lot of question marks there.
Speaker 2 (42:38):
Now.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
I know this isn't college football, but I found it
really interesting. During the college football playoffs, every team that
got to buy ended up being a detriment. The Lions
have been rocking and rolling for weeks. Maybe that buy
hurts them, maybe it doesn't. But the Commanders won six
straight to get themselves into this position. I have thought
(42:59):
Jalen Daniel Jayden Daniels, excuse me, all season long, has
just done a terrific job. Nine interceptions for a rookie
quarterback is almost phenomenal over thirty five hundred yards and
of course, twenty five touchdowns. He's got a trio of
wide receivers, most notably the veteran on that side of
the ball, Terry McLaurin, who has done a great job
(43:20):
to make this offense explosive. I know, nine and alf
points seems like, hey, just take the Lions in a teaser,
even though it's non traditional, take the Lions in a
money line parlay. Fine. I'm not calling for the outright
upset here. I'm just saying that nine and a half
(43:41):
points is a lot for a Commander's team who showed
excellent poise in a hostile environment last week in Tampa.
Not one second did Daniels show me that he was
a rookie quarterback on that road and that Bucks defense
you've heard me talk about all season long. I like
this Commander's team. I know we joke about their namesake
(44:02):
quite often, but I think this is going to be
a closer game than the spread indicates. I do think
it is going to be high flying with these dynamic offenses,
and if the Commander's defense can show up like they
did last week, put some pressure on Jared Goff and
company be able to shut down the run, that is
going to be the difference maker here. Again, I think
(44:25):
Washington has all the momentum in the world, and they
didn't necessarily expect to make the playoffs when this season started.
I do think as far as that coaching staff goes,
Cliff Kingsbury is awesome at play calling. I think there
are so many reasons to like the Lions here that
everybody is discrediting this Washington team. But do not do that.
(44:46):
Nine and a half points is too many. Give me
the Washington Football whatever their team name is now. I
like them plus the points, and good luck to all
those that put the Lions in a moneyline parlay. I hope,
I hope you don't get caught up being too choky.
All right, let's bring the guys back for a farewell.
(45:07):
We'll be back next week for the AFC and NFC
Championship games. It's gonna be a real fun one, guys,
Marco D'Angelo, Joe Ranieri, Teddy covers Yanni, the Greek, Andy Langen,
of course Ralph Michaels until next week. Let's bet on it.
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