December 31, 2024 • 48 mins
Welcome to Bet On It, your ultimate source for NFL picks, NFL predictions, and the top best bets for Week 18! Our expert panel – Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Joe Raineri, Gianni the Greek, Andy Lang, Teddy Covers, and Ralph Michaels – provides deep analysis, insider tips, and exclusive betting strategies to give you the edge this NFL season. From odds and player props to teasers and underdog picks, we've got everything you need for a successful NFL Week 18 betting experience.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy New Year. Welcome to bet on It.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Kelly Stewart here Kelly in Vegas, joined by Marco DiAngelo
at Marco and Vegas, Joe Ranieri at Joe Ranieri, and
of course.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Teddy Covers at Teddy Underscore Covers.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
We're been hanging out with you guys for the last
eighteen weeks, and frankly, I don't want to talk about
this week. I'm gonna pull a John Murray and bitch
about how awful this NFL season's been. But I will
spare you guys, so I'm gonna keep it really light
this week. I'm gonna let our experts dive deep to
try to find you.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Guys some winners.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
We're gonna go over some primetime slash meaningful games. Of course,
we've got some traps or sandwiches. Joe's got a total
that's not high enough per usual, Teddy's gonna break down
some of the playoff scenarios and teams that must win.
I may have a barking dog, dear God, they're gonna
get obliterated. And of course Andy Lang coming in with
(00:51):
a well we'll call it a comeback player. Prop Ralph
Michaels TNA and of course, some best bets. I'm gonna
try to put a smile on my face because thank God,
this NFL season is almost over. We're gonna get right
into the Saturday night primetime game. Cincinnati is a one
and a half point favorite at Pittsburgh. Total is forty
eight and a half. Here's the reality, Joe Burrow and
(01:14):
this Bengals team would be so much better off if
they just had a defense. I know, if well they had,
he might be in the contention for the MVP.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
I mean, the guy has been awesome.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Forty six hundred yards, forty two touchdowns, and boy, oh boy,
would it be interesting to see him play a team
named the Buffalo Bills or somebody else later on in
the season. But I'm not sure that's gonna happen. They
need a lot of things to go their way. As
I already mentioned, Teddy's gonna break down some of those
(01:46):
playoff scenarios and maybe what you should be looking on
or looking against about a team. But this one is
Saturday night, so what happens on Sunday doesn't matter. Cincinnati
has to win here, right, and of course they do
need a little bit of help to make the playoffs.
But that win over Denver certainly helped. If you guys
had the Denver Broncos like I did, plus three.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
And a half. I'm really sorry.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I don't know what to say, but that was a
grueling game and a grueling overtime, but the Bengals did
come out victorious. Now look at the Steelers. They had
a gauntlet of games in eleven days. They played the
Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs.
And not only did they go oh and three straight up,
they went oh and three against the spread. What else
(02:31):
does Pittsburgh have to play for? And that is really
the question here. I would love to have said, Okay,
I want to tease Pittsburgh in the scenario, but the
total is just a little too high. Ultimately, I think Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Holds their own here.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
And at least makes it a possibility to get into
the playoffs. Also, guys, as always, whenever looking at some
of these games on the Upper East Coast, check the weather.
It could get a really spicy come Saturday. Again, we
are filming on a two Tuesday because of New Year's Eve,
So keep.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
A little asterisk there.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
So give me a slight lean here towards the Bengals
minus one and a half at the Pittsburgh Steelers, Marco
in a really interesting divisional game here Why I don't know,
But talk to me about the New Orleans Saints catching
thirteen at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Well, Kelly, this is a game for Tampa Bay. Last
week they had to win, but they needed a little
help from their friends. And their friends were the Washington
Commanders who took care of beating Atlanta in overtime. So
now Tampa controls their own destiny. They went and their
in and I'm gonna look at this one. No, I'm
(03:43):
not doing the obvious and laying the points with the
Tampa Bay Bucks, but I'm not taking the points either.
I'm looking at the total in this one. And if
you look at last week's game first glance, you're gonna
see Tampa Bay won forty eight to fourteen and it
was just a romp went the total. You're gonna want
to take the over in this one. Then you're gonna
(04:04):
also look at the first meeting between Tampa Bay and
the Saints and see that that was a fifty one
to twenty seven game, way over the total. So it's
a no brainer. This total is only forty three and
a half. We're going over right, Nope, wrong, we're going
under here. And why Well, because everything changed for Tampa
(04:26):
I always say teams that need to win but don't
control their own destiny, those teams actually play looser whenever
they're out there because they can only do what they
can do and wait and see what happens with the
other games. But now they control their own destiny and
they know all they got to do is win, and
they don't need to win by a margin, they don't
(04:47):
need style points. Just win in your in and a
lot of times you're gonna play a little bit more conservative.
You're not gonna take chances, and that's gonna result in
a lower score. Plus the fact, once you do get
the lead in this game, you got next week to
think about. You're gonna be playing again next Saturday or Sunday.
(05:07):
I like Tampa Bay in this one to win the game,
but I like this game to go under the total.
You're gonna see a lot of running in this game.
The Saints can't stop the run. Tampa Bay has run
for one hundred and fifty or more yards in five
of their last six games, and in the one game
that they didn't run for one hundred and fifty or more,
they ran for one hundred and thirty four, but they
(05:28):
only rushed at twenty three times because they had to
abandon the run to throw the ball because they were behind.
In that game. The Saints have scored fourteen or less
in four of their last five games. They just want
this season to end. And if you go back to
that fifty one to twenty seven game earlier in the season,
(05:48):
there were six turnovers in that game, three by each team,
and they were turnovers that resulted in quick scores. I'm
going under forty three and a half in this one.
This numbers low for a reason. Man, they're begging you
to take the over. I'm not biting. We're going under
the total.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Marco.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Now, I don't know if I want to take Grandma
to that football game, Like I who wants to go
see a boring game with one team that well has
nothing to really play for other than a little divisional rivalry.
Speaking of that, Chiefs nine and a half point underdogs
at the Denver Broncos thirty eight and a half. Here, Teddy,
(06:28):
I don't know what to make.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Of this line.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I know that the Chiefs are going to be resting everybody,
but these two teams still hate each other, and you know,
the Broncos have just super seded expectations all season long.
I'm just waiting for them to falter.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
Yeah, i mean, look at the wayer talk live odd screen.
I'm seeing Casey at plus ten just about everywhere against Denver,
and of course take advantage of that way you talk
free a live odd screen. I've got a running on
one of my screens pretty much twenty four to seven.
You want to know where the money's going and why,
and the free way you talk live on screen will
(07:06):
help you in that regard. So it seem plus tens.
And of course it's a meaningless game for Kansas City
and Denvers in must win mode to make the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
I get it.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
But as you mentioned, Kelly, the pointsprit is a great
equalizer and the amin must win stands for mediocre and
Andy Reid squad has a pretty proven track record of
strong performances to close out the season. How about nine
and one straight up the last ten, week seventeen slash
week eighteens in the Andy Reid era, and many of
(07:39):
those times have come, starters are sitting, We've clinched spots.
It's not a big deal, and yet Kansas City still
shows up and plays. It's worth noting the Chiefs they
just had a mini bye week. They've been off since
they had that brutal stretch of three games in eleven days.
But they've been off since last Wednesday, Christmas Net. They
won't play another game until January eighteenth or nineteenth. If
(08:04):
the starters don't go this week, that's like three and
a half weeks. That's too long of a break. Andy
Reid knows it. That's why he hasn't said, oh, I'm
sitting all my starters this week. Now we could see
guys play for a little bit and sit. That wouldn't
shock me at all for Kansas City. But I don't
care if the Chiefs are resting starters. This isn't preseason
where we're talking about ninety man rosters and guys who
(08:25):
are never going to see an NFL field. This is
NFL backups. Kansas City's deep, they're a veteran team. Those
backups have been excellent. And again, they rested starters Week eighteen.
Last year, they still won out riders underdogs on the
road against the Chargers. Reed's been outstanding in this role.
I'll take my shot with Carson Wentz here. We've seen
quarterbacks like oh, I don't know, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield
(08:47):
revitalize their careers with limited opportunities. Wentz is getting that
chance here and all the quotes from Andy Reid say,
I trust this guy. I like this guy. So I
don't care if it's wins or Mahomes this week. I
really don't. All the pressures here is on the slumping
Broncos team. They're off back to back losses. They're just
one and nine straight up their last ten meetings with KC.
(09:07):
It's not like they're battle tested in pressure pack games
like this one. This team hasn't made the playoffs since
Peyton Manning retired after winning the Super Bowl in twenty fifteen.
They've only had one game all year as favorites of
a touchdown or more. That came against Carolina. If Denver
wins this game, and yes that's an if, I'm not
expecting it to come by margin. I mean the Chiefs,
(09:28):
whats the points?
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Oh boy, that does not warm my little Denver Broncos
to make the playoffs. Heart Sunday Night Football, Minnesota is
a two and a half point underdog at the Detroit
Lions fifty seven and a half here, Joe, like I
mentioned when I started the show, I didn't have high well,
I did have high hopes to win at all, because
I had a fifty five point lead going into Sunday
(09:52):
Night Football. But I thought, okay, maybe Andy Reid or
Andy Reid, maybe Dan Campbell excuse me, is going to
rest some of his starters. Nevertheless, they played basically the
entire game. Do you think that was smart in headed
into this divisional clash versus a Vikings team that everybody
I know about their season win total under everybody I
(10:13):
know about the note about might not make the playoffs
after the JJ McCarthy injury and a couple others. Everybody
just wrote.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
This team off. Now they have a chance to win
the NFC North.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
Yeah, it's kind of crazy, right, Okay, I mean, listen,
anybody that thought Dan Campbell is not a few fries
short of a happy meal. He goes into that game
yesterday having lost or Detroit having lost fourteen straight games
on the road against the forty nine ers, and Dan
Campbell strikes me as the kind of guy that wants
(10:45):
to wipe the slate clean of all of those kinds
of feudal records that Detroit is handled over the last
couple of years. It's a different Detroit team, and quite honestly,
with that defense, the only chance that they have of
winning games this point moving forward is the fact that
they can drop forty points on anybody, and they did
(11:08):
it again last night on the road against the forty
nine ers outdoors. Nothing of coming out of Dan Campbell
leads me to believe they are going to do anything
other than lay it all out on the field and
on the line to get that number one seed. Now,
it's interesting because the loser of this game is the
number five seed, which means then they've got to take
(11:31):
on either Tampa Bay if they win, or the Rams.
Either way, all of a sudden, you've got a fourteen
You've got a fourteen win team that's going to be
the fifth seed and is not going to be an
underdog no matter who they play in that wildcard round.
So I do believe Dan Campbell at home. All the
(11:53):
records and all the trends point towards them, including the
fact that you know, the single most profitable quarterback against
the NFC North over the last few years has been
one Jared Golf. When you look at this total at
fifty seven and a half, which I believe is the
highest total that we have seen in a game since
(12:16):
twenty twenty one, I believe a Tennessee Titans game, if
you can believe it. Actually twenty twenty one it was
Chiefs Titans that one closed at fifty nine. Wouldn't shock
me if this thing gets a little closer to fifty
eight to fifty eight.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
And a half.
Speaker 5 (12:33):
And keep in mind, since two thousand and three, anytime
we've seen a total of fifty seven or more the
over eighteen and seven. So it's high for a reason,
and it's hied because both these teams we saw sixty
to first go around. There's no reason for me to
believe we're gonna get anything else but another wild shootout.
(12:53):
But we're gonna get a wild shootout at home for Detroit,
a place in which they have been the single most
profitable team the back on the spread over the last
three seasons. Dan Campbell will have these guys ready to go. Listen.
My best bet last week was Minnesota. I loved Minnesota
over Green Bay in that spot, and it proved to
(13:15):
be a profitable proposition.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
I think you got it.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
If it ain't broke, we ain't fixing it with Detroit.
Speaker 5 (13:22):
Give me the Lions lay the two and a half
and oh yeah, by the way, yeah, you might as
well look at the team total going up and over
as well, because the first one, the forty, is gonna
win this game as well.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Of course, the Lions and the over.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Something that has been profitable if you've been betting it
all season long. Apologies, there is no VR today or
Art to Caesar from the Westgate super Book, but they
will both be back with us for a Saturday's Last
Call every single Saturday and Sunday. You guys can join
us here on the wager Talk YouTube channel eleven am
(14:01):
Eastern on Saturday, twelve am Eastern on Sunday. I know
Teddy's talked about the free wager Talk Odds service, which
is a great tool to use, but we also have
a premium version called Odds Logic, and right now you
can get thirty days for free with me, no credit
card needed. You're going to get the fastest updates from
(14:22):
all of the top sports books in the world. You
can also customize it, so for example, I have my
super Book, I have my hard Rock, I have I
think Heritage third online, just like to kind of be
able to shop around and look and see where the
best advantageous numbers are. You can also get breaking injury alerts.
You will get halftime notifications of course, live betting, public
(14:45):
betting percentages, and more. Oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly and
Vegas to give it a trial run for the next
thirty days. Marco DiAngelo time for the sandwich segment. This
is kind of weird in an open face.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Well, Kelly, you know you do have little dicey situations
when you get to the end of the season. Can
you really call something a sandwich? But you'll see where
I'm going with it when we break it down, and
we're going to take a look at Washington and Dallas. Now,
Washington's won four in a row, including beating Philadelphia two
weeks ago in come from behind fashion. They had five
(15:24):
turnovers in that game and still was able to pull
the win out. And then last week, well they punched
their ticket to the playoffs when they beat Atlanta in overtime.
Great game, on Sunday night football, And what do you
do now for an Encore? Yeah this is Dallas, and
yeah you hate Dallas, and Dallas still has the name.
(15:46):
But here's a young football team and you just punched
your ticket to the playoffs and you'll be playing next week.
How excited do you get this week for this matchup?
You've got a rookie quarterback. The team is just learning
how to win. I'm gonna look to the home dog here.
I think Dallas is a spot where at least they
(16:08):
are trying to play well to finish out the season.
The last week was a total excuse me shit show
in Philadelphia. Is they turned the football over four times
in that game. They shot themselves in the foot it
got routed. But they have won four of their last
six games. The offense has been moving and one thing
(16:29):
about Washington, they are exciting to watch offensively. But just
like Kelly mentioned about Cincinnati in an earlier segment, Man,
this defense leaves a lot to be desired and I
don't want to be laying points on the road with
a defense like that in a game where I've got
a question the total motivation coming off a playoff clinching
(16:52):
win in a playoff game on deck, This game really
doesn't mean anything. I'll go ahead and look to Dallas.
Go against the Sassey Washington team laying points. Now, give
me the Dallas Cowboys, who are, for whatever reason, maybe
trying to say Mike McCarthy's job. I don't know. Be
(17:12):
careful what you wish for with that one. Close it
out with their fifth win in their last seven games.
Give me the Cowboys and do a little sprinkle. I
got the Cowboys winning this one out right, twenty seven
to twenty four.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
All right, Joe, Well, what if here Marco is high
for taking the Dallas Cowboys during Week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
And it would appear you're not high enough once again?
Speaker 5 (17:38):
Yeah, no, calm, I am trying absolutely to try and
stay as level headed as humanly possible here, But I
just don't think that's going to happen. And I'm gonna
go again where it's just not high enough. And actually
not just this game, but when we look at the
NFC South in general this year, have you noticed a
(18:02):
trend in any of these games when they've gone head
to head. I have. They're usually all shootouts and there
are always usually games in which they go flying over
the total and if we're being honest, how are we
getting anything but an over in this game? Here? Listen,
(18:22):
I'd like Michael Pennix Junior. I think for a rookie
thrown into an impossible situation in week sixteen of an
NFL season and a team trying to make it to
the playoffs, I thought he did a pretty good job here,
outside of that opening interception there and not getting a
whole lot of help for some other guys on that team.
(18:44):
I think he is more than capable of going up
against his Carolina team at let it fly with those weapons.
The Atlanta defense sorry, not getting it done, still pretty
soft there, not to give him a chance to get
the ball back in that overtime game against Washington tells
you everything you need to know about this Atlanta defense. Here.
(19:06):
These teams are nine and one to the over in
the division. Atlanta averages at home fifty three and a
half fifty four points. Carolina also pretty big average here
in points. These two produced fifty eight points in the
first meeting. And I'm sorry, but the Falcons are not
just gonna be able to play ball control the offense
(19:28):
in this one. They're gonna need to score some points.
I think Bryce Young as well as Michael Pennick Junior.
This should be an entertaining game, one that I think
Lanz escal much more so in the fifties than anywhere
in the forties. So again, if it ain't broke in
week eighteen, I ain't fixing it. The NFC South games,
(19:50):
they average fifty four points. I think that's exactly what
we get in this one. Not high enough for me
at forty eight.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
All right, Joe, just gonna and keep on smoking it
through the playoffs. Teddy covers, who also likes to part
take every once in a while, at least whenever we're
hanging out the Westgates Super Book.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Wait, I'm not allowed to say that on the air.
All jokes aside.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
We love Teddy because each week he brings us just
the tip where he's saying, all right, here's some teams
we want to buy on, here's some teams we want
to sell on.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
And Teddy, a few weeks ago you said.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Kelly, just because the game is meaningless doesn't mean it's meaningless.
And the Giants proved that to me last weekend, and
basically he said, no worries, we don't want the first
round draft pick.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
We'd rather completely screw Kelly over in her survivor pool.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
So again, the players on the team, the coaching staff
on the current team, they're not worried about next year.
They don't want the number one pick. They want to
win that game. And we saw that from the Giants
last week. This week, we'll talk about selling the must
win teams in Week eighteen. I said it earlier, I'll
say it again, the m and must win stance for
mediocre and of all the teams that we want to
(21:01):
fade when it comes to selling these must win teams,
teams including their playoff seeding, that is not a motivator.
Twenty seven years in Las Vegas, you can go through
year after year, Oh, this team can win if they
they'll move up two spots in the playoff. It's not
a motivator. That's what something my experience has clearly taught me.
(21:22):
You've already heard my case against the Broncos this weekend.
What other must win teams are out there? Well, let's
see the Ravens or minus seventeen and a half against Cleveland.
They need to win to clinch the AFC North. And
I'll try to go quickly here the Steelers, but they
also face must win Cincinnati, so they'll need to win.
If Baltimore loses, and then they win the tie breaker
against the Chargers, but Bengals are in a comparable spot,
(21:42):
so there's no must win advantage for that game. The
Chargers minus five and a half against the Raiders, they
need the win to get the number five seed. If
LA wins and Pittsburgh loses, they're five and Steelers are six.
So that's a in theory, a must win game for
the Chargers. The Broncos we talked about that, they win
and they're in the DAWs. If the minus one and
a half against the Jets, if Denver loses and Miami wins,
(22:05):
Miami's in and then of course, if Denver Miami both lose,
Cincinnati's in against Pittsburgh, they're minus one and a half
in that ball game. So all three of those teams
in theory are must win squads. In the NFC, the
Vikings and Alliances must win for both teams. It doesn't count.
The Rams plus five against Seattle, they need a win
or at Tampa Bay loss to clinch the three seed.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Seawan.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
McVay doesn't care about seeding. He's resting his starters, so
that's not must win, not so much. The Buckser must
win minus thirteen against New Orleans and they have to
win the NFC South. That they lose and the Falcons win,
they're out. The Falcons minus Satin and alf against Carolina,
they must win two. Obviously Washington minus four against the
minus four and a half Againt Dallas. They win, they
(22:47):
get the sixth seed, and a loss with the Packers
win gets them the seventh seed. The Packers the opposite
side of that story. So when Theory Washington Green Bay
both must wins in order to prove their playoff seeding,
I say, if you take the Browns plus the Raiders
plus the Chiefs plus the Jets plus New Orleans plus
Seattle minus the Panthers plus Dallas plus and Chicago plus,
(23:09):
you'll make more money than if you lay with Baltimore, La, Denver, Miami, Tampa, Washington,
Green Bay and you take with lare. It's been a
chalky year in the NFL, for sure, I get it.
But Week eighteen can be very problematic for chalk players
because the value has already been sucked right out of
there and is clearly on the nothing to play for sides.
(23:30):
Beware laying a price this week with any of these
must win teams, especially the teams that must win to
improve their playoff seating.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
That's my take, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Just as I say I'm out, Teddy sucks me right
back in. God you diag it, Teddy, I do not.
I've literally be the last few weeks. I'm like, why
am I betting? I need to be taking it light
and here we are. This is not the week to
be a chalk eating weasel.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Sure, it's not.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Sure has been in chalk e since about week six.
I would say the week I went five to zero
was the pinnacle of my season and it's been all
downhill since there. Speaking of must win, the Las Vegas
Raiders have not needed to win any of these games,
yet they just keep winning games. And I don't fully
(24:20):
understand it either. I do like the Raiders plus six,
and I'll give you guys a minimal breakdown because one
of our experts has this as their best bet and
I wasn't willing to change it because I didn't see
any other barking dogs.
Speaker 5 (24:33):
Look.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Bottom line is, I don't think Harball is going to
be the type of guy to rest any of his players.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
But the Chargers did just clinch a playoff spot.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
They just dominated last week's barking dog that was the
Patriots Jim Harbaugh first year, this time as an NFL
head coach, getting right into the postseason. But I find
this really interesting because again, the Raiders were not supposed
to win two weeks ago, they did, and then last
week we hear all about these flight delays.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
They didn't get in until less than.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Twelve hours before kickoff, and then they just absolutely dominated
the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Brock Bauers had a nice game, and.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
I thought that was gonna get me and well a
fantasy championship, and it did not. But no, I digress.
Nobody cares about your fantasy team, Kelly. But look, here's
the reality. Chargers could be playing for a fifth seed
and they'd be playing Houston if they win this game.
I think they probably do win this game. But I
don't think Vegas goes down without a fight. So I'm
gonna take the plus six here with the hometown team,
(25:37):
and we'll let you guys get a little bit more
synopsis at the end of the show. Now it's time
to spend some time with the proptologists. Doctor Andy Lang,
what have you prescribed for us this week? Because I
am sick to my stomach after last week's NFL slate,
I lost my survivor p I lost the Fantasy Football
(26:01):
Championship and all of my dignity basically because I have
a league where you have to pick every single game
on the board.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
I think I picked two winners.
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Ouch. Ouch, Well, listen, it didn't go well for me
last week on the show either. I had Caleb Williams
to not have an interception and he threw one on
the final play of the game.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
He didn't have one.
Speaker 6 (26:24):
Yeah, it was that last play where it was fourth
and long and he just lobs one up for grabs
and the guy the wrong team catches it. So all right,
let's take a four to one shot on Sam Darnald
to be comeback Player of the Year, Kelly. This would
really interest me because Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite,
(26:44):
but I think I could make the case Darnald could
catch and pass him in this category this week. So,
first off, the Bengals need a lot to go right
for them to make the playoffs, and they play on Saturday.
There's a chance they lose to Pittsburgh and they're eliminated,
or a couple of other teams win and they get eliminated.
Then I get Sam Darnald in probably the game of
(27:04):
the year for the number one seed in the NFC.
And if he goes out and puts on a good
display and they win. Kelly, this is the Sunday night game.
This is the last thing you'll see from the regular season.
Is Sam Darnald beating the Detroit Lions to get the
number one seed. How much more of a comeback story
do you need from this guy? It plays for the Jets,
(27:26):
not that great, plays for Carolina, not that great. San
Francisco only plays ten games and then has this insane
resurgent year, a career high in yards, career high in touchdowns,
not a career high in interceptions. He's kept those down
to a minimum. This guy only played ten games for
San Francisco, only attempted forty six passes, and now he
(27:48):
might be the number one seed in the NFC.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
I think he's got.
Speaker 6 (27:52):
A real chance here. If he puts on a good
show and he makes the playoffs his number one seed
and Joe Burrow and the Bengals don't make it at
plus four hundred. It's too good to pass up. That
is what the doctor has prescribed today.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
All right, doctor, I know sometimes we have to use
certain websites to get the good drugs. I'm looking on
a couple of my sites right now. I need to
log into a couple apps. Where can you bet this?
Speaker 1 (28:14):
Still? I'm not seeing it thus far.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Any fan dual DraftKings bet MGM, tell me where to look.
Speaker 6 (28:22):
I got this line from DK this morning, so should
be available there. Like I said, individual props for this
week have not come out yet, but for good reason.
This is a very bizarre week. You've got teams sitting players.
Just be really careful with player props this week. A
lot of wonky things could happen. But I think you
could do a lot worse than this. Four to one
on Darnold to be comeback player of the year.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Absolutely. I like the narratives.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Speaking of narratives, any advice for those chasing kind of
some of those incentives, things like that.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I know we spoke about it last year during Week eighteen.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
But give our audience some advice on what to be
looking for and what to be avoiding.
Speaker 6 (28:59):
Yeah, it's not going to be a huge week for incentives.
Mike Evans is going to be the big win. You're
gonna want to take a look at zach Ertz had
incentives that he needed to cash over the last two
weeks of the season. I think he cashed all of
them last week. But Mike Evans needs some yards and
need some catches. That's going to be a very popular play.
And Baker's got a couple of incentives. But Baker has
been openly talking about getting Mike Evans to a thousand
(29:21):
yards and getting his incentives. It's a must win for Tampa.
If they win, they win the division and they're in
and they play the lowly Saints, So talk about a
great game to put up a lot of stats in.
Mike Evans is going to be a very popular play.
I would really look at laddering him up to get
over one hundred yards to have a ton of receptions.
So Mike Evans is going to be the big win
for the incentives this week.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
All right.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
At bump sports on ax, Andy's over there posting bet
slips and wreaking havoc with his mentions. Make sure you
guys are giving him a follow. Also does a lot
of great stuff there on TikTok.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
And Instagram at Andy laying bets.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
All right, it's sign for the last TNA of the year.
We're all really sad, Ralph Michaels. We'll just have to
see you there for the playoffs. All jokes aside. Appreciate
you hanging out with this every single week here on
Beat on it, bringing us all of the trends and angles,
and of course a best bet for the show.
Speaker 7 (30:15):
Well, kel, you know, let's start off by saying this.
My best bet is going to be on the Miami Dolphins.
And the one thing I don't want people to think
is that I'm using the Miami Dolphins because of playoff need.
I traditionally like to play against teams with playoff need
because number one, they have pressure, number two, they have
inflated lines, and number three, the opponent's playing with house money.
(30:39):
Miami was in the situation a few years ago playing
the final game of the regular season. They won that
game and advanced.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
This to me is more of the eye test.
Speaker 7 (30:49):
I will say this, a system that is sixty four
percent says to play on a team off a win
that they covered versus aw and off a loss that
they failed to cover with the lines between the threes
and the team off a win is on the road
sixty four and thirty six sixty four percent, and when
(31:10):
you look at that situation later in the season, from
game ten on, that actually goes to sixty seven percent.
Now I look at the Jets, teams like the Jets
that are late in the year the last two games
of the season have under seven wins and have lost
back to back games. They're out of the playoff race.
(31:32):
They've had a bad end of the season. Those teams
only thirty seven point five percent since two thousand and eight.
So another situation I want to fade. Yes, we have
to think about the TUA situation, but I'm okay if
two A doesn't play. Tyler Hunley proved he went into
Cleveland played a solid game. Remember this though, he also
(31:56):
started game three and four against Tennessee, against New England,
and then he played against Indy where he got hurt. Well,
that New England game, they won on the road fifteen
to ten. Against Indianapolis, they did lose that game, but
they had a seventy three yard edge. So I have
no problems with Hunley playing on the flip side. What
are they gonna do. Who's going to be the coach,
(32:17):
who's going to be the GM, who's going to be
the quarterback When you have a team in disarray that
at the end of the season, and you have a
quarterback who thinks like Rogers, who got polled last game,
who doesn't know if he's going to play this week,
who's looking at a situation where he openly mocked the
ownership this past week. It is just it is just
(32:39):
one team playing a positive mode in a must win game.
I understand that against a team that has only won
two games since the fourth game of the season, and
those two games the only reason they won against Houston.
They got out gained against Jacksonville to win, they were
plus two turnovers, and over seventy five percent of NFL
teams win with plus two turnovers. Miami Dolphins get it done.
(33:03):
If they make the playoffs, we'll see what happens. Obviously,
they need Denver to lose. If Denver wins, they're gonna
have the edgee there. But they play the same time.
In this situation, I am happy to fade the New
York Jets by making the Miami Dolphins. My Week eighteen
best bet.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
What a way to end the twenty twenty four regular
NFL season by fading the Jets just one more time.
If you've been fading the Jets all season long, you've
been making a lot of money. Ralph Michael's at cal
Sports LV thereover on X and of course you can
check them out on our wager Talk Instagram page. He
provides tons of daily content over there, wt Dot Buzz,
(33:45):
backslash RM that is Ralph's homepage on wager Talk.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
And that was bet on it. Oh wait, we still
have best bets. Marco DiAngelo is up first.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mentioned somebody else liked the Raiders with me?
Speaker 1 (33:59):
All right, Marco, give them a little bit more of
a thorough breakdown, all right, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (34:04):
Before I do it, I just want to remind everybody
we've got a special going. It kicks off New Year's
Day at wager Talk. You can buy any cap or
you want, and I would highly suggest maybe taking a
look at yours truly, as we're on a twenty one
and four run over the last eleven days, it's been
an incredible run. You can pick up a ninety day
(34:25):
subscription and we'll throw thirty days in free. Get one
hundred and twenty days all access service for the price
of ninety That comes out to like seven bucks a
day through the math. It's a great deal. It kicks
off New Year's Day. What better way to ring in
twenty twenty five than with this promotion?
Speaker 1 (34:46):
All right?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Talking about the final week of the season and how
dicey that can be sometimes and people say, you know,
the Raiders the last two weeks, why in the world
are you trying to win? You had the insight track
to possibly the number one draft pick. Well, I can
tell you that from a player standpoint, the organization may
(35:08):
think one thing and want to have a draft pick,
but from a player standpoint coaching standpoint, that's not really
what they want to do. And one of the benefits
of getting to do a lot of radio and getting
to talk to a lot of sports personalities, former players,
they have confirmed that no player wants to lose because,
(35:28):
you know what, you could go ahead and tank for
that better draft pick. That doesn't mean you're going to
get the benefit from it. There's no guarantee you're going
to be on that team next year. These guys are
playing for their jobs. And we'll start with the quarterback
for the Raiders. O'Connell. He's playing for a job next year.
(35:49):
He wants to prove that he's the guy that should
be the starter. You've got a head coach and tier
Antonio Pierce that inherited this job from the interim job
too years ago. He really hasn't impressed too many people.
So he's trying to finish on a strong note. And
I'm gonna do that here in their home finale, they're
(36:10):
playing the Chargers. The Chargers punched their ticket to the
playoffs last week. Yeah, they could better their position by
one spot, but it might not even be an option
for them come Sunday. If the Steelers beat Cincinnati, they
have This game is absolutely meaningless to the Chargers. And
(36:31):
we know coach Harboy's done a great job for his
first year. And look at the leaps and bounds by
quarterback Justin Herbert, the improvement he's made under one year
of his coaching. But he also knows this means nothing.
Next week is when it all begins, the second season,
the playoffs, and we know by nature that he is
(36:53):
a conservative coach. You'll see a lot of running in
this game. If they have a lead, I look for
the Raiders to stay in this one all the way
to the end. The Raiders defense, Granted, they've played some
not great teams down the stretch, but they have held
four of their last five opponents to nineteen points or less.
(37:15):
And oh, by the way, one of those opponents was
the Kansas City Chiefs, the two time defending champs and
the number one seed in the AFC. I'm gonna go ahead,
take the Raiders plus the points, and yeah, I gotta
tell you this is a sprinkle spot as well as
the Raiders as a division rival. If there is meaning
(37:37):
in the Chargers do have something to play for. If
the Steelers lose on Saturday, that's only gonna make the
Raiders want to win this game even more. Give me
the Raiders as my best bet this week.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Maybe we can hit this barking dog because Marco says
the Raiders are his best bet. I always love when
he and I agree. Joe Verniery, you and are slightly
head to head on this one. I'll get to that
at the end of Bess Bets. But tell me why
you like the Buffalo Bills minus the two and a half.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
Mostly because the Patriots suck. But I'll go even a
little further than that, because listen, first of all, Josh
Allen is going to start this game. I'm assuming it'll
be the proverbial. He'll go out there, take the first snap,
and then Mitch Trubisky will be into the game. The
(38:30):
reason he is starting, and Sean McDermott has already said
that is because he does have quite the iron Man
streak going right now. I think one dred and fifteen
straight starts for Josh Allen, and it looks like they
want to keep that rolling here. So he'll go out
there and get the first snap, and then Mitch Trubisky
(38:52):
will be there. And let's face it, if we're being
honest here, Buffalo has already got the number two seed
in the AFC. Are good to go. There's really nothing
here except for the fact that Buffalo's backups are on
par as far as I'm concerned with whatever the hell
is left here with the New England Patriots and sixteen
(39:13):
actually seventeen and pending free agents on this Buffalo Bills teams,
teams guys like Ty Johnson, MATC Collins, guys that absolutely
have incentive to play and play well, and Mitch Trubisky
isn't a guy that obviously has been around long enough
here going up against a Patriots secondary that is decimated,
(39:35):
and the defense of the Patriots they're not stopping anybody.
They've allowed over thirty points a game during this six
game losing streak. We've already heard in all likelihood, Drake
may may not play in this game simply because they
he's hurting. And of course he's hurting because he's taken
(39:58):
nineteen sacks, eight touchdowns, five interceptions during this six game
losing streak. The kid is getting absolutely destroyed. I wouldn't
play them either, And again, I think good organizations have depth,
and Buffalo has the depth and the quality of the
players with the incentives they have the play well, leads
(40:20):
me to believe that, yes, there is no reason not
to think the Bills backups can't have some success against
this Patriots team, who let's face it, what are they winning?
You're winning so you don't get the number one draft pick.
I don't think they end the season on a winning note.
I think Buffalo continues to roll on into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
All right, Teddy covers Let's hear it.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
Always could use another best bet for this non chalk
week tell me, you have an underdog that got well,
what the heck you told me that?
Speaker 1 (41:01):
This is not even.
Speaker 4 (41:04):
I said, I don't want to be laying points with
must win teams in this instance. I'm very comfortable laying
points with the team that's already been eliminated from the
playoff chase. That team the Arizona Cardinals. And the money's
pouring on Arizona. Literally as we speak. It was minus
three this morning. It's minus four right now looking at
the free a Wager Talk Live odd screen. I would
(41:25):
not be surprised if it goes higher between now and kickoffs.
This has all the makings of a no show game
for San Francisco. I'll give the forty nine ers credit.
They fought hard on Monday night against the Lions despite
a truly ugly injury report. Going to that game, finding
that same energy on the last day of an extremely
(41:45):
disappointing campaign. A team that had Super Bowl aspirations that
isn't going anywhere, a team that left it all on
the field last week and now has to go to
play a meaningless Week eighteen road game. I oh, by
the way, brock Perties quote quote, the elbow doesn't feel
the best. We could very well see Brandon now on
this week at QB for San Francisco or Josh Dobbs
(42:07):
playing behind a makeshift offensive line where they had a
starter at left tackle who they was on an opposing
team's practice squad two weeks ago on Monday Night. The
defensive injuries are real for San Francisco, and again, you
fight and fight and fight. They fought Monday night. This
(42:27):
is exhal for a team that is absolutely nothing to
play for. And again, the veteran teams with expectations are
not teams that I want when they're out of the
playoff race in week eighteen. So we got bet against
for San Francisco. Before I talk about Arizona, I do
want to talk about that great promotion that's running right now,
starting midnight on New Year's Day or New Year's Eve,
(42:51):
three month. You know that's a good deal. You get
a ninety day all access, get thirty days included. That'll
get you everything through the end of April. We're talking
March Madness, Super Bowl, NBA playoffs, to start a baseball season.
Everything all included, no bait and switched, no nonsense. What
less than seven bucks a day in that range right now?
(43:13):
So visit my page or anyone's page at wager talk
dot com and take advantage of that free month when
you buy a ninety day all access pass. So we
talked about why seeing Franz a bet against this week.
I think Arizona's bet on this has been a character
team since the preseason. The team chemistry has been there internally,
the effort has been there week in week out, and
(43:35):
they played far better than the final score would indicate
against the Rams last week. Kyler Murray threw for more
than three hundred yards. Arizona had twenty four first downs
convert to only twelve for LA. But they had three
different fourth quarter drives in a Rams territory and they
resulted in a total of three points. They had a
crucial extra point blocked, they had a tip pass inter
shipted in the end zone on the final drive. The
(43:56):
postgame quotes, Yeah, we had our unlucky game. Not we're
done with our season. This is short chalkworth laying, and
there may well be some urgency here. As I mentioned,
it was minus three this morning, it's minus four right now,
and I'm not anticipating the forty nine er is gonna
take a whole lot of money between now and kickoff,
even if Perty does suit up, Arizona minus the points
(44:18):
is the week eighteen best bet for this better.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Uh, this is kind of a cop out or an
opt out or whatever you wanna call this, but I'm
gonna tease two legs for my best bet Week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
It's really tough picking.
Speaker 2 (44:32):
I already had to pick the same barking dog as
Marco's best bet, and well, ultimately this one seemed like
the easiest. And I hate to go against Joe Ranire's
two picks because that's not what I'm.
Speaker 1 (44:45):
Purposely doing here.
Speaker 2 (44:46):
He already told you why he likes the Bills minus
two and a half, so I guess I have to
tell you why I like the Paths plus eight and
a half. Right, So sixteen two point teaser. The first
leg is the Patriots. To remember, a couple weeks ago,
they did only lose by three at Buffalo. Kind of
a down spot for Buffalo, But bottom line, the Bills
(45:07):
already locked into the two seed.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
If they don't rest some players.
Speaker 2 (45:10):
Here, I'm gonna lose a lot of respect for this
coaching staff because I thought Dan Campbell really screwed up
last night by not doing that.
Speaker 1 (45:19):
But man, they're.
Speaker 2 (45:22):
The last thing you want to do is get somebody
hurt in a truly meaningless game.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Now.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
I understand that New England is has been miserable all
season long, but they have been competitive in several of
those miserable losses. I know because the Mad Rush and
Jeff Petch and I from wager talk dot com had
a bet that the Patriots would win five games and
they should have.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Won at least six.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
I think they win this one here on Sunday, but
instead of trusting them to do so, I'm gonna put
them in a teaser where they just have to lose
by less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
Coupled up with the Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (45:58):
Vikings, Hey, everybody wrote off this Minnesota team all season long,
and this is the most important game for both of
these teams because the number one or the winner gets
the number one seed in the NFC, not only winning
the NFC North, but the loser is going to become
a five seed. And that's what makes this really really interesting.
I understand Dan Campbell played his teams because you want
(46:22):
everybody to be fresh, and by the point zero zero
one percent chance this game would have ended in a tie.
He needed that win over San Francisco. But Minnesota nine
and one in one possession games this year, and that
makes me very happy to think that they can put
up an absolute dogfight. If you guys remember about six
(46:42):
weeks ago, Minnesota was my best bet. They did not
show up at home. I do think that they show
up here. They have a little bit more rest. Obviously,
Detroit played Monday night on the West Coast and Minnesota
had a really nice three quarters against the Packers ultimately
ended up getting the win and cover there. I like
(47:03):
Minnesota over the touchdown here in Detroit. No disrespect to
Joe Ranieri, but I'm gonna play some advantageous numbers here.
Pats plus eight and a half, Vikings plus eight and
a half. And that is my last cop out for
this year. We're gonna go back to We're gonna go
back to college football. If you guys have missed our
bowl video for college football, it has been up for
(47:27):
over a week on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, so
if you're looking for any of the college football playoff stuff,
it is there. There's also tons of clips on the
wager Talk x as well as the Instagram and TikTok pages.
Anybody else have anything to add before we say goodbye
to the horrific twenty twenty four NFL season.
Speaker 3 (47:49):
I've enjoyed it. It's been a good year. I'm sorry,
but happy New Year, everybody.
Speaker 1 (47:55):
Let's go jats oh boy.
Speaker 7 (48:03):
On that.
Speaker 2 (48:04):
We're wish you guys are a very happy new year
until next year, let's bet on it.
Happy New Year. Welcome to bet on It.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Kelly Stewart here Kelly in Vegas, joined by Marco DiAngelo
at Marco and Vegas, Joe Ranieri at Joe Ranieri, and
of course.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Teddy Covers at Teddy Underscore Covers.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
We're been hanging out with you guys for the last
eighteen weeks, and frankly, I don't want to talk about
this week. I'm gonna pull a John Murray and bitch
about how awful this NFL season's been. But I will
spare you guys, so I'm gonna keep it really light
this week. I'm gonna let our experts dive deep to
try to find you.
Speaker 1 (00:29):
Guys some winners.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
We're gonna go over some primetime slash meaningful games. Of course,
we've got some traps or sandwiches. Joe's got a total
that's not high enough per usual, Teddy's gonna break down
some of the playoff scenarios and teams that must win.
I may have a barking dog, dear God, they're gonna
get obliterated. And of course Andy Lang coming in with
(00:51):
a well we'll call it a comeback player. Prop Ralph
Michaels TNA and of course, some best bets. I'm gonna
try to put a smile on my face because thank God,
this NFL season is almost over. We're gonna get right
into the Saturday night primetime game. Cincinnati is a one
and a half point favorite at Pittsburgh. Total is forty
eight and a half. Here's the reality, Joe Burrow and
(01:14):
this Bengals team would be so much better off if
they just had a defense. I know, if well they had,
he might be in the contention for the MVP.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
I mean, the guy has been awesome.
Speaker 2 (01:25):
Forty six hundred yards, forty two touchdowns, and boy, oh boy,
would it be interesting to see him play a team
named the Buffalo Bills or somebody else later on in
the season. But I'm not sure that's gonna happen. They
need a lot of things to go their way. As
I already mentioned, Teddy's gonna break down some of those
(01:46):
playoff scenarios and maybe what you should be looking on
or looking against about a team. But this one is
Saturday night, so what happens on Sunday doesn't matter. Cincinnati
has to win here, right, and of course they do
need a little bit of help to make the playoffs.
But that win over Denver certainly helped. If you guys
had the Denver Broncos like I did, plus three.
Speaker 1 (02:05):
And a half. I'm really sorry.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
I don't know what to say, but that was a
grueling game and a grueling overtime, but the Bengals did
come out victorious. Now look at the Steelers. They had
a gauntlet of games in eleven days. They played the
Philadelphia Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs.
And not only did they go oh and three straight up,
they went oh and three against the spread. What else
(02:31):
does Pittsburgh have to play for? And that is really
the question here. I would love to have said, Okay,
I want to tease Pittsburgh in the scenario, but the
total is just a little too high. Ultimately, I think Cincinnati.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
Holds their own here.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
And at least makes it a possibility to get into
the playoffs. Also, guys, as always, whenever looking at some
of these games on the Upper East Coast, check the weather.
It could get a really spicy come Saturday. Again, we
are filming on a two Tuesday because of New Year's Eve,
So keep.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
A little asterisk there.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
So give me a slight lean here towards the Bengals
minus one and a half at the Pittsburgh Steelers, Marco
in a really interesting divisional game here Why I don't know,
But talk to me about the New Orleans Saints catching
thirteen at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Well, Kelly, this is a game for Tampa Bay. Last
week they had to win, but they needed a little
help from their friends. And their friends were the Washington
Commanders who took care of beating Atlanta in overtime. So
now Tampa controls their own destiny. They went and their
in and I'm gonna look at this one. No, I'm
(03:43):
not doing the obvious and laying the points with the
Tampa Bay Bucks, but I'm not taking the points either.
I'm looking at the total in this one. And if
you look at last week's game first glance, you're gonna
see Tampa Bay won forty eight to fourteen and it
was just a romp went the total. You're gonna want
to take the over in this one. Then you're gonna
(04:04):
also look at the first meeting between Tampa Bay and
the Saints and see that that was a fifty one
to twenty seven game, way over the total. So it's
a no brainer. This total is only forty three and
a half. We're going over right, Nope, wrong, we're going
under here. And why Well, because everything changed for Tampa
(04:26):
I always say teams that need to win but don't
control their own destiny, those teams actually play looser whenever
they're out there because they can only do what they
can do and wait and see what happens with the
other games. But now they control their own destiny and
they know all they got to do is win, and
they don't need to win by a margin, they don't
(04:47):
need style points. Just win in your in and a
lot of times you're gonna play a little bit more conservative.
You're not gonna take chances, and that's gonna result in
a lower score. Plus the fact, once you do get
the lead in this game, you got next week to
think about. You're gonna be playing again next Saturday or Sunday.
(05:07):
I like Tampa Bay in this one to win the game,
but I like this game to go under the total.
You're gonna see a lot of running in this game.
The Saints can't stop the run. Tampa Bay has run
for one hundred and fifty or more yards in five
of their last six games, and in the one game
that they didn't run for one hundred and fifty or more,
they ran for one hundred and thirty four, but they
(05:28):
only rushed at twenty three times because they had to
abandon the run to throw the ball because they were behind.
In that game. The Saints have scored fourteen or less
in four of their last five games. They just want
this season to end. And if you go back to
that fifty one to twenty seven game earlier in the season,
(05:48):
there were six turnovers in that game, three by each team,
and they were turnovers that resulted in quick scores. I'm
going under forty three and a half in this one.
This numbers low for a reason. Man, they're begging you
to take the over. I'm not biting. We're going under
the total.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Marco.
Speaker 2 (06:08):
Now, I don't know if I want to take Grandma
to that football game, Like I who wants to go
see a boring game with one team that well has
nothing to really play for other than a little divisional rivalry.
Speaking of that, Chiefs nine and a half point underdogs
at the Denver Broncos thirty eight and a half. Here, Teddy,
(06:28):
I don't know what to make.
Speaker 1 (06:29):
Of this line.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
I know that the Chiefs are going to be resting everybody,
but these two teams still hate each other, and you know,
the Broncos have just super seded expectations all season long.
I'm just waiting for them to falter.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
Yeah, i mean, look at the wayer talk live odd screen.
I'm seeing Casey at plus ten just about everywhere against Denver,
and of course take advantage of that way you talk
free a live odd screen. I've got a running on
one of my screens pretty much twenty four to seven.
You want to know where the money's going and why,
and the free way you talk live on screen will
(07:06):
help you in that regard. So it seem plus tens.
And of course it's a meaningless game for Kansas City
and Denvers in must win mode to make the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
I get it.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
But as you mentioned, Kelly, the pointsprit is a great
equalizer and the amin must win stands for mediocre and
Andy Reid squad has a pretty proven track record of
strong performances to close out the season. How about nine
and one straight up the last ten, week seventeen slash
week eighteens in the Andy Reid era, and many of
(07:39):
those times have come, starters are sitting, We've clinched spots.
It's not a big deal, and yet Kansas City still
shows up and plays. It's worth noting the Chiefs they
just had a mini bye week. They've been off since
they had that brutal stretch of three games in eleven days.
But they've been off since last Wednesday, Christmas Net. They
won't play another game until January eighteenth or nineteenth. If
(08:04):
the starters don't go this week, that's like three and
a half weeks. That's too long of a break. Andy
Reid knows it. That's why he hasn't said, oh, I'm
sitting all my starters this week. Now we could see
guys play for a little bit and sit. That wouldn't
shock me at all for Kansas City. But I don't
care if the Chiefs are resting starters. This isn't preseason
where we're talking about ninety man rosters and guys who
(08:25):
are never going to see an NFL field. This is
NFL backups. Kansas City's deep, they're a veteran team. Those
backups have been excellent. And again, they rested starters Week eighteen.
Last year, they still won out riders underdogs on the
road against the Chargers. Reed's been outstanding in this role.
I'll take my shot with Carson Wentz here. We've seen
quarterbacks like oh, I don't know, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield
(08:47):
revitalize their careers with limited opportunities. Wentz is getting that
chance here and all the quotes from Andy Reid say,
I trust this guy. I like this guy. So I
don't care if it's wins or Mahomes this week. I
really don't. All the pressures here is on the slumping
Broncos team. They're off back to back losses. They're just
one and nine straight up their last ten meetings with KC.
(09:07):
It's not like they're battle tested in pressure pack games
like this one. This team hasn't made the playoffs since
Peyton Manning retired after winning the Super Bowl in twenty fifteen.
They've only had one game all year as favorites of
a touchdown or more. That came against Carolina. If Denver
wins this game, and yes that's an if, I'm not
expecting it to come by margin. I mean the Chiefs,
(09:28):
whats the points?
Speaker 2 (09:30):
Oh boy, that does not warm my little Denver Broncos
to make the playoffs. Heart Sunday Night Football, Minnesota is
a two and a half point underdog at the Detroit
Lions fifty seven and a half here, Joe, like I
mentioned when I started the show, I didn't have high well,
I did have high hopes to win at all, because
I had a fifty five point lead going into Sunday
(09:52):
Night Football. But I thought, okay, maybe Andy Reid or
Andy Reid, maybe Dan Campbell excuse me, is going to
rest some of his starters. Nevertheless, they played basically the
entire game. Do you think that was smart in headed
into this divisional clash versus a Vikings team that everybody
I know about their season win total under everybody I
(10:13):
know about the note about might not make the playoffs
after the JJ McCarthy injury and a couple others. Everybody
just wrote.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
This team off. Now they have a chance to win
the NFC North.
Speaker 5 (10:24):
Yeah, it's kind of crazy, right, Okay, I mean, listen,
anybody that thought Dan Campbell is not a few fries
short of a happy meal. He goes into that game
yesterday having lost or Detroit having lost fourteen straight games
on the road against the forty nine ers, and Dan
Campbell strikes me as the kind of guy that wants
(10:45):
to wipe the slate clean of all of those kinds
of feudal records that Detroit is handled over the last
couple of years. It's a different Detroit team, and quite honestly,
with that defense, the only chance that they have of
winning games this point moving forward is the fact that
they can drop forty points on anybody, and they did
(11:08):
it again last night on the road against the forty
nine ers outdoors. Nothing of coming out of Dan Campbell
leads me to believe they are going to do anything
other than lay it all out on the field and
on the line to get that number one seed. Now,
it's interesting because the loser of this game is the
number five seed, which means then they've got to take
(11:31):
on either Tampa Bay if they win, or the Rams.
Either way, all of a sudden, you've got a fourteen
You've got a fourteen win team that's going to be
the fifth seed and is not going to be an
underdog no matter who they play in that wildcard round.
So I do believe Dan Campbell at home. All the
(11:53):
records and all the trends point towards them, including the
fact that you know, the single most profitable quarterback against
the NFC North over the last few years has been
one Jared Golf. When you look at this total at
fifty seven and a half, which I believe is the
highest total that we have seen in a game since
(12:16):
twenty twenty one, I believe a Tennessee Titans game, if
you can believe it. Actually twenty twenty one it was
Chiefs Titans that one closed at fifty nine. Wouldn't shock
me if this thing gets a little closer to fifty
eight to fifty eight.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
And a half.
Speaker 5 (12:33):
And keep in mind, since two thousand and three, anytime
we've seen a total of fifty seven or more the
over eighteen and seven. So it's high for a reason,
and it's hied because both these teams we saw sixty
to first go around. There's no reason for me to
believe we're gonna get anything else but another wild shootout.
(12:53):
But we're gonna get a wild shootout at home for Detroit,
a place in which they have been the single most
profitable team the back on the spread over the last
three seasons. Dan Campbell will have these guys ready to go. Listen.
My best bet last week was Minnesota. I loved Minnesota
over Green Bay in that spot, and it proved to
(13:15):
be a profitable proposition.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
I think you got it.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
If it ain't broke, we ain't fixing it with Detroit.
Speaker 5 (13:22):
Give me the Lions lay the two and a half
and oh yeah, by the way, yeah, you might as
well look at the team total going up and over
as well, because the first one, the forty, is gonna
win this game as well.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
Of course, the Lions and the over.
Speaker 2 (13:40):
Something that has been profitable if you've been betting it
all season long. Apologies, there is no VR today or
Art to Caesar from the Westgate super Book, but they
will both be back with us for a Saturday's Last
Call every single Saturday and Sunday. You guys can join
us here on the wager Talk YouTube channel eleven am
(14:01):
Eastern on Saturday, twelve am Eastern on Sunday. I know
Teddy's talked about the free wager Talk Odds service, which
is a great tool to use, but we also have
a premium version called Odds Logic, and right now you
can get thirty days for free with me, no credit
card needed. You're going to get the fastest updates from
(14:22):
all of the top sports books in the world. You
can also customize it, so for example, I have my
super Book, I have my hard Rock, I have I
think Heritage third online, just like to kind of be
able to shop around and look and see where the
best advantageous numbers are. You can also get breaking injury alerts.
You will get halftime notifications of course, live betting, public
(14:45):
betting percentages, and more. Oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly and
Vegas to give it a trial run for the next
thirty days. Marco DiAngelo time for the sandwich segment. This
is kind of weird in an open face.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
Well, Kelly, you know you do have little dicey situations
when you get to the end of the season. Can
you really call something a sandwich? But you'll see where
I'm going with it when we break it down, and
we're going to take a look at Washington and Dallas. Now,
Washington's won four in a row, including beating Philadelphia two
weeks ago in come from behind fashion. They had five
(15:24):
turnovers in that game and still was able to pull
the win out. And then last week, well they punched
their ticket to the playoffs when they beat Atlanta in overtime.
Great game, on Sunday night football, And what do you
do now for an Encore? Yeah this is Dallas, and
yeah you hate Dallas, and Dallas still has the name.
(15:46):
But here's a young football team and you just punched
your ticket to the playoffs and you'll be playing next week.
How excited do you get this week for this matchup?
You've got a rookie quarterback. The team is just learning
how to win. I'm gonna look to the home dog here.
I think Dallas is a spot where at least they
(16:08):
are trying to play well to finish out the season.
The last week was a total excuse me shit show
in Philadelphia. Is they turned the football over four times
in that game. They shot themselves in the foot it
got routed. But they have won four of their last
six games. The offense has been moving and one thing
(16:29):
about Washington, they are exciting to watch offensively. But just
like Kelly mentioned about Cincinnati in an earlier segment, Man,
this defense leaves a lot to be desired and I
don't want to be laying points on the road with
a defense like that in a game where I've got
a question the total motivation coming off a playoff clinching
(16:52):
win in a playoff game on deck, This game really
doesn't mean anything. I'll go ahead and look to Dallas.
Go against the Sassey Washington team laying points. Now, give
me the Dallas Cowboys, who are, for whatever reason, maybe
trying to say Mike McCarthy's job. I don't know. Be
(17:12):
careful what you wish for with that one. Close it
out with their fifth win in their last seven games.
Give me the Cowboys and do a little sprinkle. I
got the Cowboys winning this one out right, twenty seven
to twenty four.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
All right, Joe, Well, what if here Marco is high
for taking the Dallas Cowboys during Week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
And it would appear you're not high enough once again?
Speaker 5 (17:38):
Yeah, no, calm, I am trying absolutely to try and
stay as level headed as humanly possible here, But I
just don't think that's going to happen. And I'm gonna
go again where it's just not high enough. And actually
not just this game, but when we look at the
NFC South in general this year, have you noticed a
(18:02):
trend in any of these games when they've gone head
to head. I have. They're usually all shootouts and there
are always usually games in which they go flying over
the total and if we're being honest, how are we
getting anything but an over in this game? Here? Listen,
(18:22):
I'd like Michael Pennix Junior. I think for a rookie
thrown into an impossible situation in week sixteen of an
NFL season and a team trying to make it to
the playoffs, I thought he did a pretty good job here,
outside of that opening interception there and not getting a
whole lot of help for some other guys on that team.
(18:44):
I think he is more than capable of going up
against his Carolina team at let it fly with those weapons.
The Atlanta defense sorry, not getting it done, still pretty
soft there, not to give him a chance to get
the ball back in that overtime game against Washington tells
you everything you need to know about this Atlanta defense. Here.
(19:06):
These teams are nine and one to the over in
the division. Atlanta averages at home fifty three and a
half fifty four points. Carolina also pretty big average here
in points. These two produced fifty eight points in the
first meeting. And I'm sorry, but the Falcons are not
just gonna be able to play ball control the offense
(19:28):
in this one. They're gonna need to score some points.
I think Bryce Young as well as Michael Pennick Junior.
This should be an entertaining game, one that I think
Lanz escal much more so in the fifties than anywhere
in the forties. So again, if it ain't broke in
week eighteen, I ain't fixing it. The NFC South games,
(19:50):
they average fifty four points. I think that's exactly what
we get in this one. Not high enough for me
at forty eight.
Speaker 2 (19:58):
All right, Joe, just gonna and keep on smoking it
through the playoffs. Teddy covers, who also likes to part
take every once in a while, at least whenever we're
hanging out the Westgates Super Book.
Speaker 1 (20:09):
Wait, I'm not allowed to say that on the air.
All jokes aside.
Speaker 2 (20:12):
We love Teddy because each week he brings us just
the tip where he's saying, all right, here's some teams
we want to buy on, here's some teams we want
to sell on.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
And Teddy, a few weeks ago you said.
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Kelly, just because the game is meaningless doesn't mean it's meaningless.
And the Giants proved that to me last weekend, and
basically he said, no worries, we don't want the first
round draft pick.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
We'd rather completely screw Kelly over in her survivor pool.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
So again, the players on the team, the coaching staff
on the current team, they're not worried about next year.
They don't want the number one pick. They want to
win that game. And we saw that from the Giants
last week. This week, we'll talk about selling the must
win teams in Week eighteen. I said it earlier, I'll
say it again, the m and must win stance for
mediocre and of all the teams that we want to
(21:01):
fade when it comes to selling these must win teams,
teams including their playoff seeding, that is not a motivator.
Twenty seven years in Las Vegas, you can go through
year after year, Oh, this team can win if they
they'll move up two spots in the playoff. It's not
a motivator. That's what something my experience has clearly taught me.
(21:22):
You've already heard my case against the Broncos this weekend.
What other must win teams are out there? Well, let's
see the Ravens or minus seventeen and a half against Cleveland.
They need to win to clinch the AFC North. And
I'll try to go quickly here the Steelers, but they
also face must win Cincinnati, so they'll need to win.
If Baltimore loses, and then they win the tie breaker
against the Chargers, but Bengals are in a comparable spot,
(21:42):
so there's no must win advantage for that game. The
Chargers minus five and a half against the Raiders, they
need the win to get the number five seed. If
LA wins and Pittsburgh loses, they're five and Steelers are six.
So that's a in theory, a must win game for
the Chargers. The Broncos we talked about that, they win
and they're in the DAWs. If the minus one and
a half against the Jets, if Denver loses and Miami wins,
(22:05):
Miami's in and then of course, if Denver Miami both lose,
Cincinnati's in against Pittsburgh, they're minus one and a half
in that ball game. So all three of those teams
in theory are must win squads. In the NFC, the
Vikings and Alliances must win for both teams. It doesn't count.
The Rams plus five against Seattle, they need a win
or at Tampa Bay loss to clinch the three seed.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
Seawan.
Speaker 4 (22:26):
McVay doesn't care about seeding. He's resting his starters, so
that's not must win, not so much. The Buckser must
win minus thirteen against New Orleans and they have to
win the NFC South. That they lose and the Falcons win,
they're out. The Falcons minus Satin and alf against Carolina,
they must win two. Obviously Washington minus four against the
minus four and a half Againt Dallas. They win, they
(22:47):
get the sixth seed, and a loss with the Packers
win gets them the seventh seed. The Packers the opposite
side of that story. So when Theory Washington Green Bay
both must wins in order to prove their playoff seeding,
I say, if you take the Browns plus the Raiders
plus the Chiefs plus the Jets plus New Orleans plus
Seattle minus the Panthers plus Dallas plus and Chicago plus,
(23:09):
you'll make more money than if you lay with Baltimore, La, Denver, Miami, Tampa, Washington,
Green Bay and you take with lare. It's been a
chalky year in the NFL, for sure, I get it.
But Week eighteen can be very problematic for chalk players
because the value has already been sucked right out of
there and is clearly on the nothing to play for sides.
(23:30):
Beware laying a price this week with any of these
must win teams, especially the teams that must win to
improve their playoff seating.
Speaker 1 (23:40):
That's my take, Kelly.
Speaker 2 (23:42):
Just as I say I'm out, Teddy sucks me right
back in. God you diag it, Teddy, I do not.
I've literally be the last few weeks. I'm like, why
am I betting? I need to be taking it light
and here we are. This is not the week to
be a chalk eating weasel.
Speaker 1 (23:56):
Sure, it's not.
Speaker 2 (23:57):
Sure has been in chalk e since about week six.
I would say the week I went five to zero
was the pinnacle of my season and it's been all
downhill since there. Speaking of must win, the Las Vegas
Raiders have not needed to win any of these games,
yet they just keep winning games. And I don't fully
(24:20):
understand it either. I do like the Raiders plus six,
and I'll give you guys a minimal breakdown because one
of our experts has this as their best bet and
I wasn't willing to change it because I didn't see
any other barking dogs.
Speaker 5 (24:33):
Look.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Bottom line is, I don't think Harball is going to
be the type of guy to rest any of his players.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
But the Chargers did just clinch a playoff spot.
Speaker 2 (24:42):
They just dominated last week's barking dog that was the
Patriots Jim Harbaugh first year, this time as an NFL
head coach, getting right into the postseason. But I find
this really interesting because again, the Raiders were not supposed
to win two weeks ago, they did, and then last
week we hear all about these flight delays.
Speaker 1 (25:04):
They didn't get in until less than.
Speaker 2 (25:05):
Twelve hours before kickoff, and then they just absolutely dominated
the New Orleans Saints.
Speaker 1 (25:11):
Brock Bauers had a nice game, and.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
I thought that was gonna get me and well a
fantasy championship, and it did not. But no, I digress.
Nobody cares about your fantasy team, Kelly. But look, here's
the reality. Chargers could be playing for a fifth seed
and they'd be playing Houston if they win this game.
I think they probably do win this game. But I
don't think Vegas goes down without a fight. So I'm
gonna take the plus six here with the hometown team,
(25:37):
and we'll let you guys get a little bit more
synopsis at the end of the show. Now it's time
to spend some time with the proptologists. Doctor Andy Lang,
what have you prescribed for us this week? Because I
am sick to my stomach after last week's NFL slate,
I lost my survivor p I lost the Fantasy Football
(26:01):
Championship and all of my dignity basically because I have
a league where you have to pick every single game
on the board.
Speaker 1 (26:09):
I think I picked two winners.
Speaker 6 (26:12):
Ouch. Ouch, Well, listen, it didn't go well for me
last week on the show either. I had Caleb Williams
to not have an interception and he threw one on
the final play of the game.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
He didn't have one.
Speaker 6 (26:24):
Yeah, it was that last play where it was fourth
and long and he just lobs one up for grabs
and the guy the wrong team catches it. So all right,
let's take a four to one shot on Sam Darnald
to be comeback Player of the Year, Kelly. This would
really interest me because Joe Burrow is the overwhelming favorite,
(26:44):
but I think I could make the case Darnald could
catch and pass him in this category this week. So,
first off, the Bengals need a lot to go right
for them to make the playoffs, and they play on Saturday.
There's a chance they lose to Pittsburgh and they're eliminated,
or a couple of other teams win and they get eliminated.
Then I get Sam Darnald in probably the game of
(27:04):
the year for the number one seed in the NFC.
And if he goes out and puts on a good
display and they win. Kelly, this is the Sunday night game.
This is the last thing you'll see from the regular season.
Is Sam Darnald beating the Detroit Lions to get the
number one seed. How much more of a comeback story
do you need from this guy? It plays for the Jets,
(27:26):
not that great, plays for Carolina, not that great. San
Francisco only plays ten games and then has this insane
resurgent year, a career high in yards, career high in touchdowns,
not a career high in interceptions. He's kept those down
to a minimum. This guy only played ten games for
San Francisco, only attempted forty six passes, and now he
(27:48):
might be the number one seed in the NFC.
Speaker 1 (27:51):
I think he's got.
Speaker 6 (27:52):
A real chance here. If he puts on a good
show and he makes the playoffs his number one seed
and Joe Burrow and the Bengals don't make it at
plus four hundred. It's too good to pass up. That
is what the doctor has prescribed today.
Speaker 2 (28:05):
All right, doctor, I know sometimes we have to use
certain websites to get the good drugs. I'm looking on
a couple of my sites right now. I need to
log into a couple apps. Where can you bet this?
Speaker 1 (28:14):
Still? I'm not seeing it thus far.
Speaker 2 (28:17):
Any fan dual DraftKings bet MGM, tell me where to look.
Speaker 6 (28:22):
I got this line from DK this morning, so should
be available there. Like I said, individual props for this
week have not come out yet, but for good reason.
This is a very bizarre week. You've got teams sitting players.
Just be really careful with player props this week. A
lot of wonky things could happen. But I think you
could do a lot worse than this. Four to one
on Darnold to be comeback player of the year.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
Absolutely. I like the narratives.
Speaker 2 (28:45):
Speaking of narratives, any advice for those chasing kind of
some of those incentives, things like that.
Speaker 1 (28:50):
I know we spoke about it last year during Week eighteen.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
But give our audience some advice on what to be
looking for and what to be avoiding.
Speaker 6 (28:59):
Yeah, it's not going to be a huge week for incentives.
Mike Evans is going to be the big win. You're
gonna want to take a look at zach Ertz had
incentives that he needed to cash over the last two
weeks of the season. I think he cashed all of
them last week. But Mike Evans needs some yards and
need some catches. That's going to be a very popular play.
And Baker's got a couple of incentives. But Baker has
been openly talking about getting Mike Evans to a thousand
(29:21):
yards and getting his incentives. It's a must win for Tampa.
If they win, they win the division and they're in
and they play the lowly Saints, So talk about a
great game to put up a lot of stats in.
Mike Evans is going to be a very popular play.
I would really look at laddering him up to get
over one hundred yards to have a ton of receptions.
So Mike Evans is going to be the big win
for the incentives this week.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
All right.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
At bump sports on ax, Andy's over there posting bet
slips and wreaking havoc with his mentions. Make sure you
guys are giving him a follow. Also does a lot
of great stuff there on TikTok.
Speaker 1 (29:54):
And Instagram at Andy laying bets.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
All right, it's sign for the last TNA of the year.
We're all really sad, Ralph Michaels. We'll just have to
see you there for the playoffs. All jokes aside. Appreciate
you hanging out with this every single week here on
Beat on it, bringing us all of the trends and angles,
and of course a best bet for the show.
Speaker 7 (30:15):
Well, kel, you know, let's start off by saying this.
My best bet is going to be on the Miami Dolphins.
And the one thing I don't want people to think
is that I'm using the Miami Dolphins because of playoff need.
I traditionally like to play against teams with playoff need
because number one, they have pressure, number two, they have
inflated lines, and number three, the opponent's playing with house money.
(30:39):
Miami was in the situation a few years ago playing
the final game of the regular season. They won that
game and advanced.
Speaker 3 (30:47):
This to me is more of the eye test.
Speaker 7 (30:49):
I will say this, a system that is sixty four
percent says to play on a team off a win
that they covered versus aw and off a loss that
they failed to cover with the lines between the threes
and the team off a win is on the road
sixty four and thirty six sixty four percent, and when
(31:10):
you look at that situation later in the season, from
game ten on, that actually goes to sixty seven percent.
Now I look at the Jets, teams like the Jets
that are late in the year the last two games
of the season have under seven wins and have lost
back to back games. They're out of the playoff race.
(31:32):
They've had a bad end of the season. Those teams
only thirty seven point five percent since two thousand and eight.
So another situation I want to fade. Yes, we have
to think about the TUA situation, but I'm okay if
two A doesn't play. Tyler Hunley proved he went into
Cleveland played a solid game. Remember this though, he also
(31:56):
started game three and four against Tennessee, against New England,
and then he played against Indy where he got hurt. Well,
that New England game, they won on the road fifteen
to ten. Against Indianapolis, they did lose that game, but
they had a seventy three yard edge. So I have
no problems with Hunley playing on the flip side. What
are they gonna do. Who's going to be the coach,
(32:17):
who's going to be the GM, who's going to be
the quarterback When you have a team in disarray that
at the end of the season, and you have a
quarterback who thinks like Rogers, who got polled last game,
who doesn't know if he's going to play this week,
who's looking at a situation where he openly mocked the
ownership this past week. It is just it is just
(32:39):
one team playing a positive mode in a must win game.
I understand that against a team that has only won
two games since the fourth game of the season, and
those two games the only reason they won against Houston.
They got out gained against Jacksonville to win, they were
plus two turnovers, and over seventy five percent of NFL
teams win with plus two turnovers. Miami Dolphins get it done.
(33:03):
If they make the playoffs, we'll see what happens. Obviously,
they need Denver to lose. If Denver wins, they're gonna
have the edgee there. But they play the same time.
In this situation, I am happy to fade the New
York Jets by making the Miami Dolphins. My Week eighteen
best bet.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
What a way to end the twenty twenty four regular
NFL season by fading the Jets just one more time.
If you've been fading the Jets all season long, you've
been making a lot of money. Ralph Michael's at cal
Sports LV thereover on X and of course you can
check them out on our wager Talk Instagram page. He
provides tons of daily content over there, wt Dot Buzz,
(33:45):
backslash RM that is Ralph's homepage on wager Talk.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
And that was bet on it. Oh wait, we still
have best bets. Marco DiAngelo is up first.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
I mentioned somebody else liked the Raiders with me?
Speaker 1 (33:59):
All right, Marco, give them a little bit more of
a thorough breakdown, all right, Kelly.
Speaker 3 (34:04):
Before I do it, I just want to remind everybody
we've got a special going. It kicks off New Year's
Day at wager Talk. You can buy any cap or
you want, and I would highly suggest maybe taking a
look at yours truly, as we're on a twenty one
and four run over the last eleven days, it's been
an incredible run. You can pick up a ninety day
(34:25):
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Speaker 1 (34:46):
All right?
Speaker 3 (34:47):
Talking about the final week of the season and how
dicey that can be sometimes and people say, you know,
the Raiders the last two weeks, why in the world
are you trying to win? You had the insight track
to possibly the number one draft pick. Well, I can
tell you that from a player standpoint, the organization may
(35:08):
think one thing and want to have a draft pick,
but from a player standpoint coaching standpoint, that's not really
what they want to do. And one of the benefits
of getting to do a lot of radio and getting
to talk to a lot of sports personalities, former players,
they have confirmed that no player wants to lose because,
(35:28):
you know what, you could go ahead and tank for
that better draft pick. That doesn't mean you're going to
get the benefit from it. There's no guarantee you're going
to be on that team next year. These guys are
playing for their jobs. And we'll start with the quarterback
for the Raiders. O'Connell. He's playing for a job next year.
(35:49):
He wants to prove that he's the guy that should
be the starter. You've got a head coach and tier
Antonio Pierce that inherited this job from the interim job
too years ago. He really hasn't impressed too many people.
So he's trying to finish on a strong note. And
I'm gonna do that here in their home finale, they're
(36:10):
playing the Chargers. The Chargers punched their ticket to the
playoffs last week. Yeah, they could better their position by
one spot, but it might not even be an option
for them come Sunday. If the Steelers beat Cincinnati, they
have This game is absolutely meaningless to the Chargers. And
(36:31):
we know coach Harboy's done a great job for his
first year. And look at the leaps and bounds by
quarterback Justin Herbert, the improvement he's made under one year
of his coaching. But he also knows this means nothing.
Next week is when it all begins, the second season,
the playoffs, and we know by nature that he is
(36:53):
a conservative coach. You'll see a lot of running in
this game. If they have a lead, I look for
the Raiders to stay in this one all the way
to the end. The Raiders defense, Granted, they've played some
not great teams down the stretch, but they have held
four of their last five opponents to nineteen points or less.
(37:15):
And oh, by the way, one of those opponents was
the Kansas City Chiefs, the two time defending champs and
the number one seed in the AFC. I'm gonna go ahead,
take the Raiders plus the points, and yeah, I gotta
tell you this is a sprinkle spot as well as
the Raiders as a division rival. If there is meaning
(37:37):
in the Chargers do have something to play for. If
the Steelers lose on Saturday, that's only gonna make the
Raiders want to win this game even more. Give me
the Raiders as my best bet this week.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
Maybe we can hit this barking dog because Marco says
the Raiders are his best bet. I always love when
he and I agree. Joe Verniery, you and are slightly
head to head on this one. I'll get to that
at the end of Bess Bets. But tell me why
you like the Buffalo Bills minus the two and a half.
Speaker 5 (38:10):
Mostly because the Patriots suck. But I'll go even a
little further than that, because listen, first of all, Josh
Allen is going to start this game. I'm assuming it'll
be the proverbial. He'll go out there, take the first snap,
and then Mitch Trubisky will be into the game. The
(38:30):
reason he is starting, and Sean McDermott has already said
that is because he does have quite the iron Man
streak going right now. I think one dred and fifteen
straight starts for Josh Allen, and it looks like they
want to keep that rolling here. So he'll go out
there and get the first snap, and then Mitch Trubisky
(38:52):
will be there. And let's face it, if we're being
honest here, Buffalo has already got the number two seed
in the AFC. Are good to go. There's really nothing
here except for the fact that Buffalo's backups are on
par as far as I'm concerned with whatever the hell
is left here with the New England Patriots and sixteen
(39:13):
actually seventeen and pending free agents on this Buffalo Bills teams,
teams guys like Ty Johnson, MATC Collins, guys that absolutely
have incentive to play and play well, and Mitch Trubisky
isn't a guy that obviously has been around long enough
here going up against a Patriots secondary that is decimated,
(39:35):
and the defense of the Patriots they're not stopping anybody.
They've allowed over thirty points a game during this six
game losing streak. We've already heard in all likelihood, Drake
may may not play in this game simply because they
he's hurting. And of course he's hurting because he's taken
(39:58):
nineteen sacks, eight touchdowns, five interceptions during this six game
losing streak. The kid is getting absolutely destroyed. I wouldn't
play them either, And again, I think good organizations have depth,
and Buffalo has the depth and the quality of the
players with the incentives they have the play well, leads
(40:20):
me to believe that, yes, there is no reason not
to think the Bills backups can't have some success against
this Patriots team, who let's face it, what are they winning?
You're winning so you don't get the number one draft pick.
I don't think they end the season on a winning note.
I think Buffalo continues to roll on into the playoffs.
Speaker 1 (40:46):
All right, Teddy covers Let's hear it.
Speaker 2 (40:49):
Always could use another best bet for this non chalk
week tell me, you have an underdog that got well,
what the heck you told me that?
Speaker 1 (41:01):
This is not even.
Speaker 4 (41:04):
I said, I don't want to be laying points with
must win teams in this instance. I'm very comfortable laying
points with the team that's already been eliminated from the
playoff chase. That team the Arizona Cardinals. And the money's
pouring on Arizona. Literally as we speak. It was minus
three this morning. It's minus four right now looking at
the free a Wager Talk Live odd screen. I would
(41:25):
not be surprised if it goes higher between now and kickoffs.
This has all the makings of a no show game
for San Francisco. I'll give the forty nine ers credit.
They fought hard on Monday night against the Lions despite
a truly ugly injury report. Going to that game, finding
that same energy on the last day of an extremely
(41:45):
disappointing campaign. A team that had Super Bowl aspirations that
isn't going anywhere, a team that left it all on
the field last week and now has to go to
play a meaningless Week eighteen road game. I oh, by
the way, brock Perties quote quote, the elbow doesn't feel
the best. We could very well see Brandon now on
this week at QB for San Francisco or Josh Dobbs
(42:07):
playing behind a makeshift offensive line where they had a
starter at left tackle who they was on an opposing
team's practice squad two weeks ago on Monday Night. The
defensive injuries are real for San Francisco, and again, you
fight and fight and fight. They fought Monday night. This
(42:27):
is exhal for a team that is absolutely nothing to
play for. And again, the veteran teams with expectations are
not teams that I want when they're out of the
playoff race in week eighteen. So we got bet against
for San Francisco. Before I talk about Arizona, I do
want to talk about that great promotion that's running right now,
starting midnight on New Year's Day or New Year's Eve,
(42:51):
three month. You know that's a good deal. You get
a ninety day all access, get thirty days included. That'll
get you everything through the end of April. We're talking
March Madness, Super Bowl, NBA playoffs, to start a baseball season.
Everything all included, no bait and switched, no nonsense. What
less than seven bucks a day in that range right now?
(43:13):
So visit my page or anyone's page at wager talk
dot com and take advantage of that free month when
you buy a ninety day all access pass. So we
talked about why seeing Franz a bet against this week.
I think Arizona's bet on this has been a character
team since the preseason. The team chemistry has been there internally,
the effort has been there week in week out, and
(43:35):
they played far better than the final score would indicate
against the Rams last week. Kyler Murray threw for more
than three hundred yards. Arizona had twenty four first downs
convert to only twelve for LA. But they had three
different fourth quarter drives in a Rams territory and they
resulted in a total of three points. They had a
crucial extra point blocked, they had a tip pass inter
shipted in the end zone on the final drive. The
(43:56):
postgame quotes, Yeah, we had our unlucky game. Not we're
done with our season. This is short chalkworth laying, and
there may well be some urgency here. As I mentioned,
it was minus three this morning, it's minus four right now,
and I'm not anticipating the forty nine er is gonna
take a whole lot of money between now and kickoff,
even if Perty does suit up, Arizona minus the points
(44:18):
is the week eighteen best bet for this better.
Speaker 2 (44:22):
Uh, this is kind of a cop out or an
opt out or whatever you wanna call this, but I'm
gonna tease two legs for my best bet Week eighteen.
Speaker 1 (44:31):
It's really tough picking.
Speaker 2 (44:32):
I already had to pick the same barking dog as
Marco's best bet, and well, ultimately this one seemed like
the easiest. And I hate to go against Joe Ranire's
two picks because that's not what I'm.
Speaker 1 (44:45):
Purposely doing here.
Speaker 2 (44:46):
He already told you why he likes the Bills minus
two and a half, so I guess I have to
tell you why I like the Paths plus eight and
a half. Right, So sixteen two point teaser. The first
leg is the Patriots. To remember, a couple weeks ago,
they did only lose by three at Buffalo. Kind of
a down spot for Buffalo, But bottom line, the Bills
(45:07):
already locked into the two seed.
Speaker 1 (45:09):
If they don't rest some players.
Speaker 2 (45:10):
Here, I'm gonna lose a lot of respect for this
coaching staff because I thought Dan Campbell really screwed up
last night by not doing that.
Speaker 1 (45:19):
But man, they're.
Speaker 2 (45:22):
The last thing you want to do is get somebody
hurt in a truly meaningless game.
Speaker 3 (45:28):
Now.
Speaker 2 (45:28):
I understand that New England is has been miserable all
season long, but they have been competitive in several of
those miserable losses. I know because the Mad Rush and
Jeff Petch and I from wager talk dot com had
a bet that the Patriots would win five games and
they should have.
Speaker 1 (45:44):
Won at least six.
Speaker 2 (45:45):
I think they win this one here on Sunday, but
instead of trusting them to do so, I'm gonna put
them in a teaser where they just have to lose
by less than a touchdown.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
Coupled up with the Minnesota.
Speaker 2 (45:58):
Vikings, Hey, everybody wrote off this Minnesota team all season long,
and this is the most important game for both of
these teams because the number one or the winner gets
the number one seed in the NFC, not only winning
the NFC North, but the loser is going to become
a five seed. And that's what makes this really really interesting.
I understand Dan Campbell played his teams because you want
(46:22):
everybody to be fresh, and by the point zero zero
one percent chance this game would have ended in a tie.
He needed that win over San Francisco. But Minnesota nine
and one in one possession games this year, and that
makes me very happy to think that they can put
up an absolute dogfight. If you guys remember about six
(46:42):
weeks ago, Minnesota was my best bet. They did not
show up at home. I do think that they show
up here. They have a little bit more rest. Obviously,
Detroit played Monday night on the West Coast and Minnesota
had a really nice three quarters against the Packers ultimately
ended up getting the win and cover there. I like
(47:03):
Minnesota over the touchdown here in Detroit. No disrespect to
Joe Ranieri, but I'm gonna play some advantageous numbers here.
Pats plus eight and a half, Vikings plus eight and
a half. And that is my last cop out for
this year. We're gonna go back to We're gonna go
back to college football. If you guys have missed our
bowl video for college football, it has been up for
(47:27):
over a week on the Wager Talking YouTube channel, so
if you're looking for any of the college football playoff stuff,
it is there. There's also tons of clips on the
wager Talk x as well as the Instagram and TikTok pages.
Anybody else have anything to add before we say goodbye
to the horrific twenty twenty four NFL season.
Speaker 3 (47:49):
I've enjoyed it. It's been a good year. I'm sorry,
but happy New Year, everybody.
Speaker 1 (47:55):
Let's go jats oh boy.
Speaker 7 (48:03):
On that.
Speaker 2 (48:04):
We're wish you guys are a very happy new year
until next year, let's bet on it.
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