January 8, 2025 • 50 mins
NFL Week 18 Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets | Bet On It: Welcome to Bet On It, your ultimate source for NFL picks, NFL predictions, and the top best bets for Week 18! Our expert panel – Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Joe Raineri, Gianni the Greek, Andy Lang, Teddy Covers, and Ralph Michaels – provides deep analysis, insider tips, and exclusive betting strategies to give you the edge this NFL season. From odds and player props to teasers and underdog picks, we've got everything you need for a successful NFL Week 18 betting experience.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to bet on It. It is wild Card weekend.
We're gonna go over some of the primetime games. Of course,
We've got Prop Shop with Andy Lang, some TNA with
Ralph Michael, some Gold with VR. We're gonna check in
with Art from the Westgates super Book, and of course
give you guys some of those best bets. To end
the show, We're gonna go on in reverse orders. Today,
Teddy Covers, Joe Vernieri, Marco DiAngelo joined the show. Teddy,
(00:25):
You're gonna be up first here Saturday, eight pm on Amazon.
Sounds so weird to say. Pittsburgh ten nine and a
half on the Odds Logic screen playing the Baltimore Ravens
forty three and a half. You and I were talking
off air, kind of saying, hey, this is interesting. A
lot of people love Pittsburgh. Tomlin owns Harbaugh, but you disagree,
(00:47):
and I think you and I are on the same
side here. Well, truth be told, I'm just a little
biased because I'm holding a ten to one Ravens ticket.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
And that Ravens ticket should still be live after this week.
And I'm going to start with a comment from the
opening line report video that I make each and every
Monday with Drew Martin right here on Way You Talk
TV Live ten am Pacific time, one pm Eastern, and
a guy, any Smokey steam Beets who's a.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Prolific commentary comes in almost every week.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And he said, I have one rule when it comes
to wild Card weekend, and that's you do not want
to be backing teams that limped into the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Just look at recent examples of teams who peak too soon.
Talked about the.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Eagles last year, the Dolphins last year, Tampa on twenty
twenty three, Arizona, New England in twenty twenty two, all
recent teams that limped in. I agree one hundred percent
with that concept. This is a Pittsburgh Steelers team that
is limping into the postseason. Four straight losses four of
(01:51):
Pittsburgh and all the struggles they had against balt remembered.
They had a nightmare the Ravens did against this Steelers.
They lost what four straight and eight out of nine,
and Pittsburgh was covering every time. All that changed in
the last meeting where Baltimore dominated this Steelers.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
They only I think it was thirty four to seventeen
final they.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Win and a cover but it was the type of
wipe away those bad performances effort that matters to me.
And look what Pittsburgh's doing right now. This is a
team that hasn't won a playoff game in seven years,
all right. They've lost their last five in the postseason.
Last year they got rolled in Buffalo, lost that game
by two touchdowns. The last four games they lose twenty
(02:34):
seven to thirteen, thirty four to seventeen, twenty nine to ten,
nineteen to seventeen, and again the Bengals cell settled for
field goals in the game last week, and Pittsburgh may
have gotten another number depending on where you got it.
But the offense didn't work and the defense was on
the lucky side keeping since the out of the red zone,
of the out of the end zone and those red
zone stops. Pittsburgh's first five tries as dogs, they went
(02:57):
five to oh straight up their last four tries as dog,
and now the market's caught up oher and four straight
up three to one a ts.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I don't trust Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
We look at the Baltimore side of the equation right now,
all right, obviously we know the playoff failures for Lamar
Jackson two and four in the postseason. He's never reached
the super Bowl. You know, Lamar Jackson. You read the
quotes out of Baltimore. I'm not going to go through
them all, but that is a hungry and focused teams,
and there's no comparison between these two teams. Baltimore's elite.
(03:31):
Baltimore is a Super Bowl contender, Pittsburgh is not. If
I'm playing im Way and I'm looking for a blowout
on Saturday night, I.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Like the sound of that, and I think my good
friend Eryl Epstein will appreciate a nice win in person
as well. All right, Marco, you're up next Sunday eight
fifteen Eastern on NBC. Washington is a three point favorite
at Tampa Bay. Fifty and a half is the total.
I want to bet the Bucks and I might go
(04:02):
to this game. Am I going to be disappointed if
I do?
Speaker 4 (04:06):
No, I don't think you're going to be disappointed at all.
You know, Washington was posted twelve wins in Jadon Daniels
a rookie season, exceeding everybody's expectations. But it's got to
be noted that of those twelve wins, only two of
them came against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati in
Week three, and if you remember the beginning of the season,
(04:27):
the Bengals had all kinds of problems and you had
Joe Burrow coming off, you know, an injury last year.
Took him a while to get going. And then they
beat Philadelphia two weeks ago. Well, Philadelphia was without Jalen Hurts.
They started my former quarterback Kenny Pickett in that game.
Whenever they beat Philly and that one and it took
(04:47):
a miracle for them to do that. I'm looking at
this one and I got to say, the defense of
Washington concerns me. We know what that offense has done
all year. Yes, it's been great, and nobody expected Daniels
they have the season that he did. But that defense
in the last three weeks has given up four hundred
(05:07):
and eighty seven yards on the ground the last three games,
nearly five yards a pop. And if there's any team
that can run the football, it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They've rushed for one hundred and fifty or more yards
in six of their last seven games. And again, that's
what Tampa does good and what that does when that
running game is working, I say it all the time.
(05:30):
You give me an average quarterback with a good running game,
he's going to be a good quarterback. If he's a
good quarterback and a strong running game, he's going to
be a great quarterback. In Baker Mayfield. You know, he's
found a home in Tampa. He's throwing for yardage two
hundred and fifty or more yards in eight of the
last twelve games. The balance this team has makes them
(05:53):
tough to stop. And you look at this, Tampa had
to win six of their last seven games to get
in to the playoffs, and it came down to the
final week of the season. Kind of piggyback off of
what Teddy said with his game about teams limping into
the playoffs, I am the other way with a dangle
that I like. I like the teams that had to
(06:15):
go to the final Sunday to get in. You know why,
because they already played a playoff game. They got a
playoff game under their belt that was last week. Having
to win to get in. That's a great advantage for them. Also,
put in the fact Baker Mayfield has playoff experience. Jayden Daniels,
this will be you know, a rookie making a start
(06:38):
on the road in the playoffs. That's tough to do.
And the Tampa defense has held eight straight opponents to
under one hundred yards rushing. That's gonna make things a
little tougher for Daniels. If they've got to become one
dimensional in this game, and Tampa can pin their ears
and put some pressure on him, I think they're able
(06:59):
to get the job done.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Now.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
I know that if he does have time to pass,
and that they do throw the ball downfield, Tampa has
been vulnerable to the pass. We saw last week. They
gave up some yardage to the Saints in that game
and actually had to come from behind. But I just
think the experience of this team playing at home, and
remember Tampa won last year at home, then went on
(07:23):
the road and many thought they could have beat Detroit
in that game. They ended up losing that game in Detroit,
and we know how good the Lions were last year.
I think that experience last year they take the next
step this year with another win at home. Kelly, So
take grandma, have some beers or whatever grandma drinks, shall
(07:44):
have fun at the game. Tampa gets the job done.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Sorry about that, guys, I was looking for tickets online.
We'll see if I end up going h like Tampa
as well. Marco Monday Night Joe Ranieri eight point fifteen
on ABC Minnesota. It's taken on the La Rams here.
This one's been interesting and there's maybe even some talks
about this game being moved. We got a few days.
(08:11):
This is Wednesday. We'll see how the firefighting efforts in
La go. But let's talk about that hypothetical. If the
game is moved. What are we gonna see here? In
terms of line movement? This one opened Minnesota minus one
and a half. Forty seven and a half looks really
easy to tease the rams too.
Speaker 6 (08:31):
Yes, and most people are doing that. The question is
does it remain indoors somewhere cal I think that would
be the first question I'd want to know if they're relocating,
where does it go? Because if it's outside, I guarantee
you the total will drop in this game. If it
is indoors and remains where it is, well, then I
(08:52):
would expect the total to keep rising. And right now
we're seeing forty eight starting to pop up here, and
if that's the case, is probably be pretty good reason.
Since teams that have played playoff games at indoor stadiums
thirty five and eighteen to the over sixty six percent
since two thousand and three. And you're talking about two
(09:13):
teams that can certainly get it going, especially now you've
got a Rams team where it appears everyone is healthy.
The big trio there is going to be healthy with
Matt Stafford, Pokaonakoa and of course the playoff and touchdown machine,
and that is exactly what he has been over the
(09:35):
years in Cooper Cup, has been an absolute anytime touchdown
machine when it comes to playoff football. The Vikings listen
three of sixteen on third and fourth down, zero and
four in the red zone, maybe the single worst offensive
performance we've seen from them all year long. In fact,
it was, and it was all because the Lions, even
(09:57):
with a lot of injuries, came after, they came after
Sam Donald, and boy was he a little gun shy
by the time that game got into the second half. Here. Now,
whether or not the Rams are going to be able
to pull off that same strategy remains to be seen,
but I do think that the Vikings, certainly O'Donnell there,
(10:18):
o'con rather the head coach, will have a much better
game plan especially since they've already seen each other. As
the Rams took care of business against Minnesota earlier this year.
They ended up winning by ten. The big issue there
for the Vikings defense was stop blitzing Stafford, because he
lit you up every time you went after him. Here
(10:40):
now they do it at the highest rate that we've
seen a lot of teams this year. In fact, I
believe one number one or number two in blitz rate
here this defense.
Speaker 7 (10:50):
That's what they do.
Speaker 6 (10:52):
So if they continue to do that, and I don't
think they're going to try to be anything other than
what they are and what got him here, expect McVeigh
to get it going here with his big trio, including
Kyron Williams by the way, running the ball, who is
also healthy. Bottom line to me is that there is
no reason to think if this game remains indoors with
(11:14):
these two offenses, that we don't get points. I expect
Minnesota to be much better than what they were against
Detroit last game, and I expect what was essentially a
bye week for the offense for the Rams, I expect
them to have a good game plan on a fast track.
John Hussey, by the way, the lead referee NFL best
(11:37):
eleven and forty over this year. Those games average at
least fifty plus points a game. The only way I
would look at this game here, because I do think
it is a bit of a toss up, is give
me the over, because I think without a doubt points
are coming in this.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
One every week here on bet on it. The great
Gambler graces us with his presence and of course all
of that gold that you I so desperately seek. I
just take the training wheels off the bike and let
the man ride. Welcome in VR. Let's see what you
got for Wildcard weekend?
Speaker 8 (12:09):
Ready for the first of twenty twenty five. Forgive the scruff.
It's the busiest week I've had in a long, long
time tape in two UFC episodes tomorrow got the college
football playoffs, the wildcard, so just don't have time to
look pretty right now. Luckily, you guys got Kelly for
the rest of the show. So here' where we're going
to dive into it.
Speaker 7 (12:26):
With the NFL.
Speaker 8 (12:27):
We got to remember, yeah, everything changes, the playing field changes.
We are now in the playoffs. The public money doesn't
just outweigh wise guy money. It so overwhelms the sports
books here's what's going on. You can't forget this, pick
the winner, cash a ticket, none greater than during the playoffs.
We say it in the NFL all the time. If
you could pick the winner of the game, you're gonna
(12:47):
make a lot of money because they usually cover the spread.
Either the favorite blows out the dog or the dog wins.
Speaker 7 (12:53):
Out right where points aren't really needed. This is that
time where that really matters.
Speaker 8 (12:58):
In fact, in the wildcard round, I think it's highers
where just pick the winner, you're going to cash the ticket.
I can't wait to hear all of Rolf's trends on
these playoffs and this wildcard round.
Speaker 7 (13:09):
But keep that in mind. Also keep in mind this
is the.
Speaker 8 (13:11):
Time of the year that the teaser is most important
because the lines are as efficient as they come. In fact,
by championship weekend, those books that are letting you bet
six figures on teasers earlier on the year may take
a nickel a dime because they believe that you should
be laying minus one fifty minus one sixty for those
(13:31):
six extra points by that time. So we're going to
find any opportunity to one. We want to lock it in.
Unlike during the regular season, where we wait until about
ten to fifteen minutes before kickoff. With the playoffs, that
information is factored into the price well before the day
of the game, well before two days of the game,
unless there's some huge surprise. Believe me, it's all baked
(13:54):
into the cake. So if you see an opportunity to tease,
you jump on it. Unlike during the season, and a
perfect example of that, we saw the rams that's no
longer wannabule. It was just twenty four hours ago. In fact,
I sent that out to subscribers with side B as well.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
So here's some of the stuff that's going on.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
The betting public has bet every single game over, every
single one they bet over except for Washington Tampa Bay.
That one's kind of split the flip side of the coin.
The short money has.
Speaker 7 (14:24):
Bet every single one of these totals under.
Speaker 8 (14:27):
And what more better reflection we have of this being
a zero sum game. These guys aren't working with each
other that much. I know because I share information with
different guys that move, and they're all we're all battling
each other to that number. Otherwise, this is all you
gotta do. These bening syndicats could just sit back and
wait for the betters to get through the window, because
once they do on Saturday, once they do on Sunday,
(14:49):
they're gonna bet these games over, just like we're seeing
it earlier in the week. So if I know I'm
going to get a better number on the under later
in the week, why not just wait?
Speaker 7 (14:57):
Why not wait? Because there's five six have an other.
Speaker 8 (15:01):
Groups that are waiting to pounce on that value as well.
That's why you saw some under money come in already
on some of these totals.
Speaker 7 (15:09):
Look at that Pittsburgh Baltimore game.
Speaker 8 (15:11):
Look at that Chargers Houston game, both both heavy under
steam and yet more than enough public money to outweigh
the risk. The risk of the books comes if it
lands somewhere in the middle.
Speaker 7 (15:23):
Now real quickly.
Speaker 8 (15:24):
I do know threes been bought off on the Houston side.
Couple of sharp betters did take the three, went down
to two and a half. But again, more than enough
public money is going to be on the Chargers that
there's no reason they need to continue discounting it at
two and a half. That's why you're seeing threes at
a lot of the books. Baltimore Pittsburgh. This one's that
continuing the climb in the direction of Baltimore. But let's
(15:45):
not forget Pittsburgh's owned them in this series. If I'm
not mistaken, I think they've won eight of the last ten.
We know they split the series this year with each
team winning at home. So that one's another one where
now it's no longer teasable.
Speaker 7 (16:00):
Second at eight and a half, and that was about it.
Speaker 8 (16:02):
Now you gotta lay double digits to bet the Baltimore side,
and that total has dropped significantly from that forty six.
Speaker 7 (16:08):
They came back and bet under forty five as well.
Speaker 8 (16:11):
Going on to Sunday Action, not much the report in
the Buffalo Denver game, except that groups that don't regularly
tease during the regular season.
Speaker 7 (16:21):
Got locked in on Buffalo at a teaser.
Speaker 8 (16:23):
That's why if you look at the sharpest books on
the screen right now, go to wagittalk dot com, hit
the live odds.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
And here's what you're gonna see. You know, be able
to get eight and a.
Speaker 8 (16:31):
Half at some of the squares shops, but the ones
that already got hit, that's up to nine and a half.
Blocking the teaser on the Buffalo side. Green Bay, Philadelphia
all one sided action on Philadelphia. Remember, out of these
six games, four of them or three of them are
rematches from earlier in the season. You know, Pittsburgh Baltimore,
(16:51):
they play each other twice every year because of the.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
Being in the same division.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
But we have a lot to go on with Washington,
Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota Rams.
Speaker 7 (17:00):
We already have.
Speaker 8 (17:01):
A first game and you're already seeing some of the biases,
even though in the case of like Washington and Philadelphia,
those were so early in the season.
Speaker 7 (17:09):
But yet you notice the price is being factored in.
Speaker 8 (17:13):
One sided money from the public on Green Bay, one
sided money from the sharps on Tampa Bay. I'm interested
to see what happens with that game because.
Speaker 7 (17:24):
They're not coming off three.
Speaker 8 (17:25):
I can tell you not only did the group I
work with hit Tampa Bay, but I know another group
hit Tampa Bay as well. I thought we were going
to see three and a half. We saw it for
a minute, and that's when it went back to three.
So the bottom line here is there is a lot
of disagreements because every half point matters.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
When you get to the playoffs. It's one of those
times where you want.
Speaker 8 (17:45):
To wait to take advantage of that public influence later
in the week because they will move some of these
lines when they bet a lot of money. But also
you're noticing the sharp betters. They dive right in and
extract most of the value. And then when they're really
going to dig in on is the prop bets team
totals things like that. But anytime they see a side
or total, they're gonna hit that one early. And just
(18:07):
to summarize, a little bit sharp under in the Chargers
Houston sharp under, Pittsburgh, Baltimore sharp, Buffalo sharp, Philadelphia sharp,
Tampa Bay. Those I could confirm guys that I bet
with or guys.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
That share with me confirm those as sharp.
Speaker 8 (18:29):
And I'm also seeing a little bit of under money
in that Philadelphia and Green Bay game as well.
Speaker 7 (18:37):
So that's what we got this early in the week.
Speaker 8 (18:40):
I'll be back on last Coal to get that latest information.
Whether you follow fate, hope you do some damage this
weekend in the wildcart and the rest of the NFL playoffs.
Speaker 7 (18:51):
Great time, great time to be betting.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Absolutely, we're gonna go on a horrifical ris I can't
even say the right word historical, I think is the
word I was looking for there VR because the NFL
has been so horrific for myself this year. I'm excited
for twenty twenty five. Maybe something was in the cards
there for us last week. You and I always like
to joke about that. You guys can catch VR every
(19:16):
single Saturday and Sunday with me here on wager Talks
Last Call, giving you that last minute, up to date
information before kickoff. You guys can also get his premium
plays WT dot Buzz, backslash vr R mentioned the Wager
Talk Odds Screen guys, it is one of the best
free tools you can use if you're looking for a
premium version. The makers of the Down, Best and Sports Options.
(19:40):
While Odds Screen has brought you Odds Logic right now.
You guys can get thirty days for free with me
Oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas again. You're getting
free thirty days that's gonna take you to the Super Bowl.
That gives you breaking injury alert. You can customize your
odds screen too preferred books. You're also gonna get betting
(20:02):
percentages and of course tells you when you're at halftime
any breaking alerts. It is absolutely awesome if you guys
have not got a chance to try it. Odds Logic
dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas, it's time to see
the proptologist, Andy Lang. What kind of diagnosis do you
have for us this week?
Speaker 9 (20:21):
Oh, this is a quick diagnosis. This is a play
that we cashed on easily last week. We're gonna go
right back to it. It's Lamar Jackson over one and
a half passing touchdowns to minus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
To some.
Speaker 9 (20:31):
That may sound like a lot of juice. To me,
it sounds like a bargain. Six games in a row,
he's gone over this. He's also gone over in ten
out of the last eleven games, and the last time
he played Pittsburgh he had three touchdown passes. The previous
game against Pittsburgh was at Pittsburgh where he only had one.
This isn't the same Pittsburgh defense. You keep writing these
streaks as long as the books keep giving up to us.
(20:53):
So Lamar Jackson, very very easy diagnosis and as always,
take two and call me in the morning.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Wait a minute, Zay Flowers, his best receivers not doing
so hot. Does that concern you at all?
Speaker 6 (21:06):
Here?
Speaker 9 (21:07):
No, because Pittsburgh has been absolutely awful against tight ends.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
As a little addendum to this.
Speaker 9 (21:13):
Play, I might sprinkle Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews at
plus money to each have a touchdown Mark Andrews touchdown
and six out of seven games. Those are the two
guys that I think he's gonna be targeting in the
red zone.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Ooh, I like that little extra prescription you wrote us
there at bumpsports on x at Andy lnkbacks on TikTok
and Instagram. Andy does a lot of stuff every single day.
Is the trend your friend free prop bets lots of
great information. You can also get his premium plays wt
dot buzz backslash al. Thank you, Andy, We'll see you
(21:47):
up for the divisional round. Now it's time let's check
in with Art to Caesar from the Westgates Super Book
to get a look behind that counter. All right, I
hope you guys have your pen and paper ready because
Art to Caesar is gonna give us a look behind
that counter there over the Westgate Super Book. Art wild
Card Weekend is always a fun one. We know that
(22:09):
there's some unwritten rules, right, Like a lot of people
are just gonna about the money lines, right because it's
just picked the winner. Is that what you guys typically
see is the public coming in strong lots of moneyline parlays.
Give us a little insight what goes on there at
the super book.
Speaker 10 (22:27):
Yeah, and you know what Kelly as I'm sure you know,
and I'm sure a lot of the listeners know. In
these playoff games too, when the winner, you know, when
the favorite wins, they really win, they cover. So there
are a lot of those. You have two big favorites
as well, in Baltimore and Buffalo, which are going to
(22:47):
carry a lot of the moneyline parlays. They're going to
be involved in all the teasers. So those two really
key a lot of that type of public action that
you'll see with teasers of favorites under a field goal,
and obviously all the moneyline favorites that will be you know,
not only the NFL games, but will be connected to
(23:09):
the college games as well.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Yeah, those are always interesting from the public perspective. But
let's go what the sharps are betting, because that's what
everybody here on BATANT wants to know. What is the
big money, what is the sharp money? Tell me if
you guys have already had some big bets here by
Wednesday morning or if it's been more like a slow
trickle throughout the week.
Speaker 11 (23:35):
It's really hasn't.
Speaker 10 (23:36):
I mean, you know, people get excited for these playoff games,
so we've seen a lot of action roll in. I
would say the two or three biggest sharp things we've seen.
We've seen the big favorites reach maybe a high point
on a number and get bet. We saw Pittsburgh at
ten take sharp action from a respected guy. Same guy
(23:57):
also bet the Broncos plus nine, so he felt good
about taking the shot with the two big underdogs. And
I'd say the sharpest total move has been in the
first game Chargers and Texans. We open forty four, we're
now forty two and a half on that game. That
was early sharp money.
Speaker 7 (24:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I kind of correlates with what VR said there in
an earlier segment. What do you guys think here in
regards to these totals, Like, we know that the public
loves to bet overs, but then we've got sharp money
coming in early. Should we be sitting back waiting closer
to game time thinking that that public money is going
to push the lineup because during the traditional NFL season,
(24:40):
we don't see them coming as hot and heavy during
the playoffs. We know that they love to infiltrate the market.
Speaker 11 (24:47):
They do, and there will be plenty of public money.
Speaker 10 (24:50):
And it's a great question, Kevin, It's a great way
to look at Let's just say that charger total. Normally
in a spot, sharp money comes in on forty four.
You miss that number, you never get back there. But
with the public money the first game of the day,
public probably wants to come in and bet overs because
that's what they do. Maybe you get back to forty
(25:12):
three and a half, Maybe you get to the forty four.
Probably not the forty four, but maybe the market and
the public money pushes that total back up and you
can get back in closer to where the original sharp
money came in at. So that is something that you
definitely can watch because it's not Super Bowl public money,
but there's plenty of playoff public money during these games.
(25:35):
It's not just the sharp guys dictating all the moves.
Sometimes the public money can move the action and the market.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
All right, last question for our tell me your best
bet for Wildcard weekend. I know on Laska on Saturdays,
it's always in the comments section. They love getting your
opinion on your favorite game.
Speaker 10 (25:58):
I'm gonna be a little square here like the Eagles.
I think the Eagles are the move. I Green Bay
did not finish the season. Well, they're banged up. I
understand Hurts is also banged up, but he basically had
like it feels like a month off to get ready
for this game. And I just feel like the Eagles
at home, their defense is really good.
Speaker 11 (26:18):
And I don't put.
Speaker 10 (26:19):
Any stock into what I saw them play in Week one.
They played in Brazil. That feels like eons ago. I
know it's a bigger number you're sitting, you know, four
to four and a half, But I like the Eagles
to run away with that game by seven or more.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
I feel good about the Eagles sucking up to our producer, Dan,
the big Eagles fan. I love to hear that art
to seize. You guys can catch him almost every single
Saturday with me on wager Talks Last Call. You can
also watch him on Wager Talk Today on Wednesdays. He's
the best. Even when he's not working, he always is
all right. Tell us what's going on throughout the playoffs
(26:55):
there at the Westgate Superbook.
Speaker 11 (26:58):
Yeah, it's always kind of listen, we're gonna have a
lot going on.
Speaker 10 (27:00):
Obviously a lot of parlay cards and different parlay cards too.
We like to add parlay cards now where they're kind
of like Super Bowl cards where we put some player
props on the cards. We do some different things there.
Obviously we're always doing our minus one of weight reduced juice,
and might even go a little bit further with some
of our reduced juice on these playoff games, So keep
an eye out for that. And you know, as always,
(27:22):
I've say it all the time and all the Wage
to Talk shows, I go on coming and say hi.
Speaker 11 (27:26):
I have plenty people coming and say hi.
Speaker 10 (27:29):
They want a couple of minutes, and I always come
out and talk to everyone, and everyone is always so
gracious and nice, you know, and they're all Water Talk fans.
So if you're in town for the weekend, coming and
say hi.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
I love it. Don't bother trying to say hi to
John Murray. Just go say hi to Art to Caesar.
Make sure you guys are also following him at Art
Dice twenty one on your social channels. He's a great
follow over there as well. All right, guys, let's uh
see what we need to do next. Oh, wait these
(27:59):
glasses up. You guys know what they're here for. I'm
ready to nerd out with the stat daddy, Ralph Michaels.
Welcome in, Ralph. If you guys have never heard of Ralph,
never seen Ralph, never known Ralph, you are years behind.
This man has spent his entire career building well spreadsheets, databases,
(28:20):
and of course guides. Right now up on his page
and as well as his son Jeff's page over on
wager talk dot com, you can get his playoff guy
twenty five situations Ralph. I cannot wait to dive into that,
but you're gonna give us the situations right here on
bet on it for Wildcard weekends, well.
Speaker 5 (28:41):
Cal I tuned in to watch VR, and I have
to because I enjoy it so much, so he made
me do a little extra work. So I went to
the database and looked at the wildcard games as VR
was talking about. And since twenty eighteen, there's been thirty
two Wildcard games. The team that has won has gone
twenty six five and one eighty four percent against the spread.
(29:04):
But Kelly, there's a caveat three of those were as
a favorite of eight, nine or ten points. So if
you look at dogs and favorites up to eight, the
twenty five teams that applies to those teams have gone
twenty two to two and one against the spread ninety
one point seven percent. So VR did nail it on
(29:25):
the head. That just quantifies what he said. So, Kelly,
the chart, as you said, has twenty five situations in there.
Some of them are very small sample sizes, like how
do playoff teams do, like Denver that shut out their
last foe. There's not many of them, but I at
least put the data in so you can see. So
I'm going to knock off a few of those. But
(29:46):
first I just want to simply go over wild card
results since twenty ten. I'm going to reference to VR again.
He talked about how Joe Public bet all the overs,
the sharps all the unders. Why have the sharps bet
the unders? Kelly? Since twenty ten, if you bet every
under in the wild card game, you have gone thirty
(30:09):
nine and twenty five, you have cash sixty one percent
of the time. That's why the sharps are betting the
unders in the wild card games. When I look at
big home favorites in the NFL Wildcard rounds since twenty ten,
those are favorites of seven or higher. They've gone sixty
two point five percent against the spread over under seven
(30:33):
and nine, so two games under five hundred one situation
that has been a negative home favorites of minus one
to minus six and a half, so you're a home
favorite of under a touchdown. Those teams have only gone
twelve nineteen and two against the spread, that is thirty
nine percent, and they've gone thirteen and twenty over under
(30:57):
that is sixty one percent to the under. And finally,
there's only been fifteen home dogs in the wild card
rounds since twenty ten. Against the spread they've gone eight
six and one fifty seven percent and the over unders
five and ten thirty three percent. So you're not going
to base a play on the under and those situations.
(31:17):
But again, when you have a sample size of thirteen years,
it is pretty significant to realize that these teams are
so evenly matched. So those small favorites do get upset
very often in couple situations. I just want to go
over Kelly Road teams with more wins. I get asked
this very often. The Vikings, the Commanders, and the Chargers
(31:39):
all have better records, but they have to go on
the road because their opponents won their division. Well, road
teams with more wins have gone twelve and twenty one
straight up, that is thirty six point four percent, and
they've only gone twelve twenty to one thirty seven point
five against the spread. So again, more wins does not
(32:01):
mean you are the better team. I often get asked
how teams do that finish the season strong or poorly?
I have multiple situations in the guide. Two specifics. I
wanted to point out teams off back to back wins
by twenty points or more in a wild card game.
This goes all the way back to two thousand and one.
(32:22):
Only one team applies. That's the Baltimore Ravens. Teams that
are off back to back wins by twenty points or
more are only seven to fifteen thirty two percent against
the spread. And another situation I looked at yet Baltimore
defense has been elite. They allowed under thirty two points
their last three games combined since two thousand and one.
(32:47):
Teams that have done that have only gone forty five
point eight percent against the spread. But listen to this
cl You think a team that has allowed under eleven
points per game the last three games would have a
great defensive presence in the playoffs. In the wildcard round,
teams like the Ravens thirty seven overs thirteen unders. That
(33:08):
is seventy four percent to the over, so again opposite
of what you would think. And lastly, here's a pretty
wild one to talk about a total. If you have
a wildcard team with a total of thirty nine or
more and the teams have not met this year so
they are not division foes, they were now part of
(33:29):
the regular season schedule. It applies to the Bills and
Broncos and Texans and Chargers since two thousand and three,
those teams have five overs and twenty five unders. That
is eighty three percent to the under so Bills, Broncos,
and Texans, Chargers, so twenty five situations. I have the
(33:51):
playoffs by round for each of the last four years,
including the seedings. I have the team logs of how
the NFL teams did against team that had a winning
record when they played them. All of that in the
guide absolutely free WT dot buzzbackslash RM or WT dot
buzzbackslash JMS to get that guide for free.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
Ralph is the best Even if he did not say
some great things about my best bet, he told you,
guys where you can get his guide, wt Dot Buzz,
Backslash RM. You can also get his premium plays for
this weekend in the NFL. Make sure you guys are
giving Ralph a follow on social media at cow Sports LV.
Ralph will see you for the divisional round. It's time
to get into those best bets, all right. Marco DiAngelo
(34:44):
is up first. Marco, tell me about your seven day
all access pass for seventy seven bucks.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
Well, Kelly, you know we had a great twenty twenty
four and we're rolling into twenty twenty five. We want
to keep things rolling, and what we've got for you
you can get a seven day all access package. Now,
you know, a seven day all access is ninety nine dollars,
but if you use q pon code MD seven to seven,
the number seven seven MD, you will get seven days
(35:15):
all access all sports for just seventy seven dollars. We
are the number one handicapper at wager talk since October
first in money one. You can join me in on
my four percent best bet plays. We're on an eleven
and three run. We've had great success. With the five percents.
As you know as well, those aren't as frequent. Join
(35:36):
us for this winning run in Kelly, speaking of winning runs,
let's get the playoffs off to a start with a
winner on the best bets. And I'm gonna go to
the LA Chargers at Houston for my best bet. And
the Chargers are gonna be a very popular play my opinion,
people are gonna want to run to coach Harbaugh what
(35:58):
he's done in the first season and in LA with
the Chargers, He's got them to the playoffs. They won
their way into the playoffs over the last couple of
weeks of the season. But you know what, if I
am the head coach of Houston, all I am doing
all week long in the locker room is playing the
sound bites from the Pittsburgh Cincinnati game with the announcers
(36:21):
and the Chargers Raiders game sound bites. Because all you
heard on Saturday when Pittsburgh was taking on Cincinnati was
obviously Cincinnati was in a must win situation to keep
their playoff hopes alive, and once Baltimore had already won
earlier in the day, the narrative was Pittsburgh Steelers want
(36:41):
to win this game so that they can go to Houston. Okay,
they're calling out the Houston Texans. Everybody wanted to play
the Texans. Well, the Steelers lost that game and that
opened the door for the Chargers on Sunday. And that's
all you heard on that game. And you saw that
line shoot up the minute the Steelers lost on Saturday,
because it became meaningful for the Chargers. They were the
(37:04):
team that could win the rights to play Euston. The
other thing that I would do is I would put
the spread up on the chalkboard and remind them, not
only does everybody want to play you, Vegas thinks you're
an underdog at home and you won your division. This
team has been totally disrespected coming in here and everybody
(37:24):
is drinking the Chargers kool aid. Well, before you take
a sip of that Chargers kool aid, let me point
out that the Chargers have eleven wins on the season.
Only two of those wins on the season came against
the playoff team, and that team they beat twice. That
was the Denver Broncos with a rookie quarterback. They had
(37:44):
to come from behind at home in the second game
to win that one. Houston went three and two over
the last five games, and people were talking about how
you know they slid in and they had the easy division. Yeah,
they did have an easy division, but three two slate
at the end. The two losses came against Kansas City
and Baltimore, two of the best teams in the AFC,
(38:07):
and that Kansas City loss was on the road and
it was a one possession game. Those two teams also
have something in common, both dynamic quarterbacks. Well, Justin Herbert's
a good quarterback too, but what is he that the
other two? What is he not that the other two
are mobile? You have Lamar Jackson that destroyed Houston with
(38:30):
his mobility in the running game. And then you have
Patrick Mahomes who isn't a runner by design, but man
does he extend the plays. And when he does run,
he runs calculated runs to extend plays. That's not what
you're gonna get from Justin Herbert. Houston has playoff experience
from last year. They went to the playoffs with a
(38:51):
rookie quarterback. They won the first playoff game against Cleveland,
and then they ran into that nemesis of them, the
Baltimore Ravens. I think that experience last year will help
them in this particular game. And let's not forget too
the Chargers are going to be playing their third straight
road game. That's not easy. I don't care if it's
(39:11):
playoffs or not. You've still been on the road for
three very meaningful football games for them. They had to
go on the road and win in New England. Granted
it's New England's bad, but they had to win that
game so they had to have the pedal to the medal.
Then they had to beat Denver in that stretch as well,
(39:33):
and last week go on the road and beat a
division rival, the Raiders. I also like the fact that
Houston has the better defense and they're now a home underdog.
Speaker 7 (39:45):
Over the last.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
Nine games, they've held six of nine opponents to one
hundred and five yards or less rushing, and of the
three teams that rushed for more than one hundred and
five yards, as I mentioned, two of them was Kansas
City and Baltimore. I'm gonna go ahead and take Houston
in this one. I think they've overreacted to this one.
(40:07):
At worst, this should have been a pick them, not
two and a half or three point line. I will
take Houston I think they win it out right. I'll
also say I can't argue if this thing settles at
two and a half with putting that old teaser in
there as well.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Kelly took the words right out of my mouth, Marco,
I already tease the Houston Texans. So I am with
you there, Joe Vernieri. Wild Card weekend is always interesting,
but we hardly ever see big dogs. Went outright, and
I thought maybe you were gonna come here with like
(40:43):
a big barking dog, and yet you're just back with
another under.
Speaker 6 (40:48):
I am back, and I am way too high for this,
I'll tell you right now, Kelly. And so is this
damn game between the Ravens and the Steelers. Here listen,
here's what we know. First, this game opened up forty six,
forty six and a half, and we've seen nothing but
Underbuddy come in and hit this down to forty three
(41:08):
and a half. And quite honestly, given what we've seen
from the Steelers offense over the last month, the last
four games in which they have not been able to
muster up more than seventeen points in any one game.
In fact, they took on one of the worst defenses
they are in Cincinnati and managed, yeah, just seventeen points
(41:30):
in that game. They are getting worse. These are two
teams going in two totally different directions right now. So
I do think Pittsburgh, well, they're almost a double digit
dog for a reason. And I know a lot of
people are They're gonna regurgitate Tomlin as a as an
underdog and his record and yat yualla. Here's a couple
(41:52):
out of the numbers you need to know. Lamar Jackson
and Ravens together have played seven playoff games. Those games
five and two to the Under, and not one of
those games has ever seen more than forty four points
scored in them. These two teams alone have played nine
times since twenty twenty, the Under eight and one. In
(42:14):
those nine games since twenty twenty, in fact, only one
time has the winner of that game got more than
twenty points. You want to know when that was? Oh yeah,
the last game when the Ravens just scored thirty four
points again them, But that game was absurd and it
was an outlier. They went five of seven together inside
the red zone, They were three of three on field goals.
(42:37):
There was even a defensive touchdown scored. But more importantly,
Zay Flowers absolutely smoked the Steelers in that last game.
Eight targets, team high, five receptions, team high, had over
one hundred yards team high. In fact, no other wide
receiver had more than fourteen yards in that game. They
(42:59):
play man coverage in Pittsburgh. There's only one guy on
that roster of Baltimore that can actually beat their man coverage,
and it's Jay Flowers. Well there's another guy too, but
he's a tight end, uh and I guarantee you he's
not gonna be going eighty yards to the house anytime
soon in this game. So Mark Andrews is the most
(43:19):
dependable receiver that they're gonna have for the defense the
Pittsburgh Steelers play. But Jay Flowers him not being available
for the Ravens in this game is a big, big problem.
Why because over the years, I mean, he's already beaten
the Steelers for one hundred and thirty nine receiving yards
this year. Outside of Andrews and maybe the Isaiah likely
(43:42):
the entire rest of the Ravens wide receiver roster has
a total of one hundred and twelve receiving yards versus
the Steelers. Here in a couple of games and then,
by the way, that's only on twenty three targets. So
his favorite two targets are Andrews and Jay Flowers, and
only one of those guys can stretch the field without
him in a lineup. This is going to be a
(44:03):
much different Ravens offense. So congrats on scoring thirty four
to the last game. You ain't getting thirty four in
this game. Cal It's a matter of whoever gets to
twenty first wins this game. And my feeling is the
Steelers are going to be struggling all day against this
revamped Ravens defense, which nobody wants to see him to
talk about, but yet has been absolutely dominating over the
(44:25):
last month and a half. Forty three and a half
to me, still way too high here. This has got
twenty to three written all over it. And that's exactly
what I'm planning on happening here.
Speaker 1 (44:37):
All right, Teddy Covers going with the total himself back
to that Commander's Bucks game. Am I gonna see some
fireworks on Sunday night?
Speaker 2 (44:48):
I expect that we'll see some fireworks on Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (44:50):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (44:51):
I mean both these teams have been overteam all year.
Tampa twelve and five to the over, Washington eleven and
six to the over. Both these offenses is in good
current form. Washington scored thirty plus three times in their
last five games. Tampa scored twenty four plus each of
the last seven games, catching six overs or sorry, five
(45:12):
to one and one to the over during that span.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
The Bucks have the buck.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
The difference in this Tampa offense is here Bucky Irving
a Rashad White, but they've been able to run the
football effectively. And when you can have a balanced offense
against Washington defense, you can move the football up and
not a field against them. Liam Cohen, the Bucks offense cornator,
he's going to be a head coach next year, and
he's done a heck of a job designing that offense.
(45:38):
Cliff Kingsbury, too, may well be a head coach again
next year.
Speaker 3 (45:42):
Washington's offense corenador.
Speaker 2 (45:43):
And we look at what Kingsbury has been able to
do with a rookie QB. And let me go back
to rookie QB's here for a minute, because obviously Jaydon
Danils got a rookie QB on the road, you're playing
them all over the total. Well, let's start with this
Jadon Daniels is far more battle tested than your average ROOKIEQB,
and it comes to what he did in college. He's mobile.
Look at what other rookie qbs have done. This isn't
(46:04):
Skyler Thompson starting a playoff game, or John Woolford or.
Speaker 7 (46:08):
Connor Cook or AJ mccern.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
And all those guys who started playoff games in the
last decade rookie qbs, and they've all been off. But
this isn't a backup quarterback. This is a superstar quarterback.
CEJ Stroud last year playoff opener hung forty five on
Cleveland over and he cashed over Baltimore too the next week.
Brock Perdy in twenty twenty two as a rookie against
Seattle hung forty one on the Seahawks in the opener
(46:32):
forty one twenty three. That game flew over the total.
So yeah, I understand Jay Daniels a rookie. He's a
good rookie, all right. Neither team has a giveaways problem
with turnovers on offense. Neither team has a takeaways problem
on defense. You know, neither team's giving the ball away
and neither team is Both teams in the bottom half
of the NFL turnovers forced, So I don't see turnovers
(46:52):
being the factor in this ballgame. They met once already
this year. It was back in Week one and Daniel
didn't know what he was doing yet. Oh by the way,
that game finished with fifty seven points in that contest.
So which team to be trusted to get stops neither.
Let's not forget the cluster injuries in the secondary. The
Bucks have injuries in the secondary. Even if and both
these guys are very questionable Jordan Whitehead and Jamal Dean
(47:14):
suit up, they still have injuries in the secondary. Michel Lattimore,
he's been out for Washington. He's very questionable this week
as well. So weather looks fine. It's not going to
be raining in theory. And this is the highest total
on the betting board for good reason. I like Tampa
and Washington over the total. And I got a promo
(47:35):
code as well. Teddy seven gets you seven day all
access just seventy seven bucks at checkout Again. Teddy seven
at Checkout is a seven day all access pass. You
can save twenty two dollars and get every play every
day in every sport.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
Teddy's homepage WT Dot Buzz backslash t C all Right, Well,
I asked, how come nobody else is playing a big dog,
So I guess I have to do it. We don't
have a bark dog segment this weekend, and I'm not
so sure that Denver is really barking, But I do
think Sean Payton and this Denver Broncos team can scare
(48:12):
the crap out of this Bills team. Look, the reality
is the Broncos were picked to win five games, six games,
give or take by Vegas. Now here they are in
the playoffs. I was wrong about bow Knicks. Speaking of
bo Nicks, this is obviously his first postseason appearance because
(48:32):
he is a rookie, and maybe it should scare me
that you know he's gonna make his first postseason appearance
as a rookie on the road. But I'm not betting
on bow Knicks. I'm betting on this Denver defense. They
rank in the top three in red zone defense this
(48:52):
season long, and I understand what the Bills in Josh
Allen are capable if Josh Allen by all means, has
cleaned up those turnovers and has done really well in
the red zone. But I say this because I do
think this is where the rubber meets the road, and
we see this game go under the total, making those
eight and half points just a little bit juice here.
Speaker 7 (49:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
Of course, if you watched last week's game, we're not
gonna give Denver any pats on the back for beating
Kansas City, who basically all but lied down so that
they didn't have to face Sincy here in the playoffs.
And I know Buffalo is eight to NOO at home
this year, so I can see where everybody's gonna have
Buffalo in their money line parlays. Everybody's gonna tease Buffalo,
and I don't blame you for that, but keep an
(49:38):
eye here, Denver. Broncos six and three. That's sixty six
point seven percent against the spread on the road in
the last two seasons, five and two straight up in
their last seven games now, albeit their losses have come
to Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson. Again, I
want to give Josh Allen, who is I am VP,
(50:00):
all of those flowers, but I do think eight and
a half is too many points. No, I will not
be sprinkling on that money line. Broncos plus eight and
a half and that's the show this week. Guys, it's
gonna get shorter every single week because well, we're running
out of games, but we'll be back for the divisional
round next week. Me, Ralph fi R, Marco, Teddy, Andy Art.
(50:27):
Who else is on the show? Uh yeah, Joe and
myself Until then, guys, up, Joe's just hiding off at
things because I let's everybody until next week. Guys, let's
bet on it.
Welcome to bet on It. It is wild Card weekend.
We're gonna go over some of the primetime games. Of course,
We've got Prop Shop with Andy Lang, some TNA with
Ralph Michael, some Gold with VR. We're gonna check in
with Art from the Westgates super Book, and of course
give you guys some of those best bets. To end
the show, We're gonna go on in reverse orders. Today,
Teddy Covers, Joe Vernieri, Marco DiAngelo joined the show. Teddy,
(00:25):
You're gonna be up first here Saturday, eight pm on Amazon.
Sounds so weird to say. Pittsburgh ten nine and a
half on the Odds Logic screen playing the Baltimore Ravens
forty three and a half. You and I were talking
off air, kind of saying, hey, this is interesting. A
lot of people love Pittsburgh. Tomlin owns Harbaugh, but you disagree,
(00:47):
and I think you and I are on the same
side here. Well, truth be told, I'm just a little
biased because I'm holding a ten to one Ravens ticket.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
And that Ravens ticket should still be live after this week.
And I'm going to start with a comment from the
opening line report video that I make each and every
Monday with Drew Martin right here on Way You Talk
TV Live ten am Pacific time, one pm Eastern, and
a guy, any Smokey steam Beets who's a.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Prolific commentary comes in almost every week.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
And he said, I have one rule when it comes
to wild Card weekend, and that's you do not want
to be backing teams that limped into the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Just look at recent examples of teams who peak too soon.
Talked about the.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Eagles last year, the Dolphins last year, Tampa on twenty
twenty three, Arizona, New England in twenty twenty two, all
recent teams that limped in. I agree one hundred percent
with that concept. This is a Pittsburgh Steelers team that
is limping into the postseason. Four straight losses four of
(01:51):
Pittsburgh and all the struggles they had against balt remembered.
They had a nightmare the Ravens did against this Steelers.
They lost what four straight and eight out of nine,
and Pittsburgh was covering every time. All that changed in
the last meeting where Baltimore dominated this Steelers.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
They only I think it was thirty four to seventeen
final they.
Speaker 2 (02:12):
Win and a cover but it was the type of
wipe away those bad performances effort that matters to me.
And look what Pittsburgh's doing right now. This is a
team that hasn't won a playoff game in seven years,
all right. They've lost their last five in the postseason.
Last year they got rolled in Buffalo, lost that game
by two touchdowns. The last four games they lose twenty
(02:34):
seven to thirteen, thirty four to seventeen, twenty nine to ten,
nineteen to seventeen, and again the Bengals cell settled for
field goals in the game last week, and Pittsburgh may
have gotten another number depending on where you got it.
But the offense didn't work and the defense was on
the lucky side keeping since the out of the red zone,
of the out of the end zone and those red
zone stops. Pittsburgh's first five tries as dogs, they went
(02:57):
five to oh straight up their last four tries as dog,
and now the market's caught up oher and four straight
up three to one a ts.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I don't trust Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
We look at the Baltimore side of the equation right now,
all right, obviously we know the playoff failures for Lamar
Jackson two and four in the postseason. He's never reached
the super Bowl. You know, Lamar Jackson. You read the
quotes out of Baltimore. I'm not going to go through
them all, but that is a hungry and focused teams,
and there's no comparison between these two teams. Baltimore's elite.
(03:31):
Baltimore is a Super Bowl contender, Pittsburgh is not. If
I'm playing im Way and I'm looking for a blowout
on Saturday night, I.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Like the sound of that, and I think my good
friend Eryl Epstein will appreciate a nice win in person
as well. All right, Marco, you're up next Sunday eight
fifteen Eastern on NBC. Washington is a three point favorite
at Tampa Bay. Fifty and a half is the total.
I want to bet the Bucks and I might go
(04:02):
to this game. Am I going to be disappointed if
I do?
Speaker 4 (04:06):
No, I don't think you're going to be disappointed at all.
You know, Washington was posted twelve wins in Jadon Daniels
a rookie season, exceeding everybody's expectations. But it's got to
be noted that of those twelve wins, only two of
them came against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati in
Week three, and if you remember the beginning of the season,
(04:27):
the Bengals had all kinds of problems and you had
Joe Burrow coming off, you know, an injury last year.
Took him a while to get going. And then they
beat Philadelphia two weeks ago. Well, Philadelphia was without Jalen Hurts.
They started my former quarterback Kenny Pickett in that game.
Whenever they beat Philly and that one and it took
(04:47):
a miracle for them to do that. I'm looking at
this one and I got to say, the defense of
Washington concerns me. We know what that offense has done
all year. Yes, it's been great, and nobody expected Daniels
they have the season that he did. But that defense
in the last three weeks has given up four hundred
(05:07):
and eighty seven yards on the ground the last three games,
nearly five yards a pop. And if there's any team
that can run the football, it's the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They've rushed for one hundred and fifty or more yards
in six of their last seven games. And again, that's
what Tampa does good and what that does when that
running game is working, I say it all the time.
(05:30):
You give me an average quarterback with a good running game,
he's going to be a good quarterback. If he's a
good quarterback and a strong running game, he's going to
be a great quarterback. In Baker Mayfield. You know, he's
found a home in Tampa. He's throwing for yardage two
hundred and fifty or more yards in eight of the
last twelve games. The balance this team has makes them
(05:53):
tough to stop. And you look at this, Tampa had
to win six of their last seven games to get
in to the playoffs, and it came down to the
final week of the season. Kind of piggyback off of
what Teddy said with his game about teams limping into
the playoffs, I am the other way with a dangle
that I like. I like the teams that had to
(06:15):
go to the final Sunday to get in. You know why,
because they already played a playoff game. They got a
playoff game under their belt that was last week. Having
to win to get in. That's a great advantage for them. Also,
put in the fact Baker Mayfield has playoff experience. Jayden Daniels,
this will be you know, a rookie making a start
(06:38):
on the road in the playoffs. That's tough to do.
And the Tampa defense has held eight straight opponents to
under one hundred yards rushing. That's gonna make things a
little tougher for Daniels. If they've got to become one
dimensional in this game, and Tampa can pin their ears
and put some pressure on him, I think they're able
(06:59):
to get the job done.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Now.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
I know that if he does have time to pass,
and that they do throw the ball downfield, Tampa has
been vulnerable to the pass. We saw last week. They
gave up some yardage to the Saints in that game
and actually had to come from behind. But I just
think the experience of this team playing at home, and
remember Tampa won last year at home, then went on
(07:23):
the road and many thought they could have beat Detroit
in that game. They ended up losing that game in Detroit,
and we know how good the Lions were last year.
I think that experience last year they take the next
step this year with another win at home. Kelly, So
take grandma, have some beers or whatever grandma drinks, shall
(07:44):
have fun at the game. Tampa gets the job done.
Speaker 1 (07:48):
Sorry about that, guys, I was looking for tickets online.
We'll see if I end up going h like Tampa
as well. Marco Monday Night Joe Ranieri eight point fifteen
on ABC Minnesota. It's taken on the La Rams here.
This one's been interesting and there's maybe even some talks
about this game being moved. We got a few days.
(08:11):
This is Wednesday. We'll see how the firefighting efforts in
La go. But let's talk about that hypothetical. If the
game is moved. What are we gonna see here? In
terms of line movement? This one opened Minnesota minus one
and a half. Forty seven and a half looks really
easy to tease the rams too.
Speaker 6 (08:31):
Yes, and most people are doing that. The question is
does it remain indoors somewhere cal I think that would
be the first question I'd want to know if they're relocating,
where does it go? Because if it's outside, I guarantee
you the total will drop in this game. If it
is indoors and remains where it is, well, then I
(08:52):
would expect the total to keep rising. And right now
we're seeing forty eight starting to pop up here, and
if that's the case, is probably be pretty good reason.
Since teams that have played playoff games at indoor stadiums
thirty five and eighteen to the over sixty six percent
since two thousand and three. And you're talking about two
(09:13):
teams that can certainly get it going, especially now you've
got a Rams team where it appears everyone is healthy.
The big trio there is going to be healthy with
Matt Stafford, Pokaonakoa and of course the playoff and touchdown machine,
and that is exactly what he has been over the
(09:35):
years in Cooper Cup, has been an absolute anytime touchdown
machine when it comes to playoff football. The Vikings listen
three of sixteen on third and fourth down, zero and
four in the red zone, maybe the single worst offensive
performance we've seen from them all year long. In fact,
it was, and it was all because the Lions, even
(09:57):
with a lot of injuries, came after, they came after
Sam Donald, and boy was he a little gun shy
by the time that game got into the second half. Here. Now,
whether or not the Rams are going to be able
to pull off that same strategy remains to be seen,
but I do think that the Vikings, certainly O'Donnell there,
(10:18):
o'con rather the head coach, will have a much better
game plan especially since they've already seen each other. As
the Rams took care of business against Minnesota earlier this year.
They ended up winning by ten. The big issue there
for the Vikings defense was stop blitzing Stafford, because he
lit you up every time you went after him. Here
(10:40):
now they do it at the highest rate that we've
seen a lot of teams this year. In fact, I
believe one number one or number two in blitz rate
here this defense.
Speaker 7 (10:50):
That's what they do.
Speaker 6 (10:52):
So if they continue to do that, and I don't
think they're going to try to be anything other than
what they are and what got him here, expect McVeigh
to get it going here with his big trio, including
Kyron Williams by the way, running the ball, who is
also healthy. Bottom line to me is that there is
no reason to think if this game remains indoors with
(11:14):
these two offenses, that we don't get points. I expect
Minnesota to be much better than what they were against
Detroit last game, and I expect what was essentially a
bye week for the offense for the Rams, I expect
them to have a good game plan on a fast track.
John Hussey, by the way, the lead referee NFL best
(11:37):
eleven and forty over this year. Those games average at
least fifty plus points a game. The only way I
would look at this game here, because I do think
it is a bit of a toss up, is give
me the over, because I think without a doubt points
are coming in this.
Speaker 1 (11:51):
One every week here on bet on it. The great
Gambler graces us with his presence and of course all
of that gold that you I so desperately seek. I
just take the training wheels off the bike and let
the man ride. Welcome in VR. Let's see what you
got for Wildcard weekend?
Speaker 8 (12:09):
Ready for the first of twenty twenty five. Forgive the scruff.
It's the busiest week I've had in a long, long
time tape in two UFC episodes tomorrow got the college
football playoffs, the wildcard, so just don't have time to
look pretty right now. Luckily, you guys got Kelly for
the rest of the show. So here' where we're going
to dive into it.
Speaker 7 (12:26):
With the NFL.
Speaker 8 (12:27):
We got to remember, yeah, everything changes, the playing field changes.
We are now in the playoffs. The public money doesn't
just outweigh wise guy money. It so overwhelms the sports
books here's what's going on. You can't forget this, pick
the winner, cash a ticket, none greater than during the playoffs.
We say it in the NFL all the time. If
you could pick the winner of the game, you're gonna
(12:47):
make a lot of money because they usually cover the spread.
Either the favorite blows out the dog or the dog wins.
Speaker 7 (12:53):
Out right where points aren't really needed. This is that
time where that really matters.
Speaker 8 (12:58):
In fact, in the wildcard round, I think it's highers
where just pick the winner, you're going to cash the ticket.
I can't wait to hear all of Rolf's trends on
these playoffs and this wildcard round.
Speaker 7 (13:09):
But keep that in mind. Also keep in mind this
is the.
Speaker 8 (13:11):
Time of the year that the teaser is most important
because the lines are as efficient as they come. In fact,
by championship weekend, those books that are letting you bet
six figures on teasers earlier on the year may take
a nickel a dime because they believe that you should
be laying minus one fifty minus one sixty for those
(13:31):
six extra points by that time. So we're going to
find any opportunity to one. We want to lock it in.
Unlike during the regular season, where we wait until about
ten to fifteen minutes before kickoff. With the playoffs, that
information is factored into the price well before the day
of the game, well before two days of the game,
unless there's some huge surprise. Believe me, it's all baked
(13:54):
into the cake. So if you see an opportunity to tease,
you jump on it. Unlike during the season, and a
perfect example of that, we saw the rams that's no
longer wannabule. It was just twenty four hours ago. In fact,
I sent that out to subscribers with side B as well.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
So here's some of the stuff that's going on.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
The betting public has bet every single game over, every
single one they bet over except for Washington Tampa Bay.
That one's kind of split the flip side of the coin.
The short money has.
Speaker 7 (14:24):
Bet every single one of these totals under.
Speaker 8 (14:27):
And what more better reflection we have of this being
a zero sum game. These guys aren't working with each
other that much. I know because I share information with
different guys that move, and they're all we're all battling
each other to that number. Otherwise, this is all you
gotta do. These bening syndicats could just sit back and
wait for the betters to get through the window, because
once they do on Saturday, once they do on Sunday,
(14:49):
they're gonna bet these games over, just like we're seeing
it earlier in the week. So if I know I'm
going to get a better number on the under later
in the week, why not just wait?
Speaker 7 (14:57):
Why not wait? Because there's five six have an other.
Speaker 8 (15:01):
Groups that are waiting to pounce on that value as well.
That's why you saw some under money come in already
on some of these totals.
Speaker 7 (15:09):
Look at that Pittsburgh Baltimore game.
Speaker 8 (15:11):
Look at that Chargers Houston game, both both heavy under
steam and yet more than enough public money to outweigh
the risk. The risk of the books comes if it
lands somewhere in the middle.
Speaker 7 (15:23):
Now real quickly.
Speaker 8 (15:24):
I do know threes been bought off on the Houston side.
Couple of sharp betters did take the three, went down
to two and a half. But again, more than enough
public money is going to be on the Chargers that
there's no reason they need to continue discounting it at
two and a half. That's why you're seeing threes at
a lot of the books. Baltimore Pittsburgh. This one's that
continuing the climb in the direction of Baltimore. But let's
(15:45):
not forget Pittsburgh's owned them in this series. If I'm
not mistaken, I think they've won eight of the last ten.
We know they split the series this year with each
team winning at home. So that one's another one where
now it's no longer teasable.
Speaker 7 (16:00):
Second at eight and a half, and that was about it.
Speaker 8 (16:02):
Now you gotta lay double digits to bet the Baltimore side,
and that total has dropped significantly from that forty six.
Speaker 7 (16:08):
They came back and bet under forty five as well.
Speaker 8 (16:11):
Going on to Sunday Action, not much the report in
the Buffalo Denver game, except that groups that don't regularly
tease during the regular season.
Speaker 7 (16:21):
Got locked in on Buffalo at a teaser.
Speaker 8 (16:23):
That's why if you look at the sharpest books on
the screen right now, go to wagittalk dot com, hit
the live odds.
Speaker 7 (16:28):
And here's what you're gonna see. You know, be able
to get eight and a.
Speaker 8 (16:31):
Half at some of the squares shops, but the ones
that already got hit, that's up to nine and a half.
Blocking the teaser on the Buffalo side. Green Bay, Philadelphia
all one sided action on Philadelphia. Remember, out of these
six games, four of them or three of them are
rematches from earlier in the season. You know, Pittsburgh Baltimore,
(16:51):
they play each other twice every year because of the.
Speaker 7 (16:53):
Being in the same division.
Speaker 8 (16:55):
But we have a lot to go on with Washington,
Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Minnesota Rams.
Speaker 7 (17:00):
We already have.
Speaker 8 (17:01):
A first game and you're already seeing some of the biases,
even though in the case of like Washington and Philadelphia,
those were so early in the season.
Speaker 7 (17:09):
But yet you notice the price is being factored in.
Speaker 8 (17:13):
One sided money from the public on Green Bay, one
sided money from the sharps on Tampa Bay. I'm interested
to see what happens with that game because.
Speaker 7 (17:24):
They're not coming off three.
Speaker 8 (17:25):
I can tell you not only did the group I
work with hit Tampa Bay, but I know another group
hit Tampa Bay as well. I thought we were going
to see three and a half. We saw it for
a minute, and that's when it went back to three.
So the bottom line here is there is a lot
of disagreements because every half point matters.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
When you get to the playoffs. It's one of those
times where you want.
Speaker 8 (17:45):
To wait to take advantage of that public influence later
in the week because they will move some of these
lines when they bet a lot of money. But also
you're noticing the sharp betters. They dive right in and
extract most of the value. And then when they're really
going to dig in on is the prop bets team
totals things like that. But anytime they see a side
or total, they're gonna hit that one early. And just
(18:07):
to summarize, a little bit sharp under in the Chargers
Houston sharp under, Pittsburgh, Baltimore sharp, Buffalo sharp, Philadelphia sharp,
Tampa Bay. Those I could confirm guys that I bet
with or guys.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
That share with me confirm those as sharp.
Speaker 8 (18:29):
And I'm also seeing a little bit of under money
in that Philadelphia and Green Bay game as well.
Speaker 7 (18:37):
So that's what we got this early in the week.
Speaker 8 (18:40):
I'll be back on last Coal to get that latest information.
Whether you follow fate, hope you do some damage this
weekend in the wildcart and the rest of the NFL playoffs.
Speaker 7 (18:51):
Great time, great time to be betting.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
Absolutely, we're gonna go on a horrifical ris I can't
even say the right word historical, I think is the
word I was looking for there VR because the NFL
has been so horrific for myself this year. I'm excited
for twenty twenty five. Maybe something was in the cards
there for us last week. You and I always like
to joke about that. You guys can catch VR every
(19:16):
single Saturday and Sunday with me here on wager Talks
Last Call, giving you that last minute, up to date
information before kickoff. You guys can also get his premium
plays WT dot Buzz, backslash vr R mentioned the Wager
Talk Odds Screen guys, it is one of the best
free tools you can use if you're looking for a
premium version. The makers of the Down, Best and Sports Options.
(19:40):
While Odds Screen has brought you Odds Logic right now.
You guys can get thirty days for free with me
Oddslogic dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas again. You're getting
free thirty days that's gonna take you to the Super Bowl.
That gives you breaking injury alert. You can customize your
odds screen too preferred books. You're also gonna get betting
(20:02):
percentages and of course tells you when you're at halftime
any breaking alerts. It is absolutely awesome if you guys
have not got a chance to try it. Odds Logic
dot Com backslash Kelly in Vegas, it's time to see
the proptologist, Andy Lang. What kind of diagnosis do you
have for us this week?
Speaker 9 (20:21):
Oh, this is a quick diagnosis. This is a play
that we cashed on easily last week. We're gonna go
right back to it. It's Lamar Jackson over one and
a half passing touchdowns to minus one fifty.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
To some.
Speaker 9 (20:31):
That may sound like a lot of juice. To me,
it sounds like a bargain. Six games in a row,
he's gone over this. He's also gone over in ten
out of the last eleven games, and the last time
he played Pittsburgh he had three touchdown passes. The previous
game against Pittsburgh was at Pittsburgh where he only had one.
This isn't the same Pittsburgh defense. You keep writing these
streaks as long as the books keep giving up to us.
(20:53):
So Lamar Jackson, very very easy diagnosis and as always,
take two and call me in the morning.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Wait a minute, Zay Flowers, his best receivers not doing
so hot. Does that concern you at all?
Speaker 6 (21:06):
Here?
Speaker 9 (21:07):
No, because Pittsburgh has been absolutely awful against tight ends.
Speaker 5 (21:11):
As a little addendum to this.
Speaker 9 (21:13):
Play, I might sprinkle Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews at
plus money to each have a touchdown Mark Andrews touchdown
and six out of seven games. Those are the two
guys that I think he's gonna be targeting in the
red zone.
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Ooh, I like that little extra prescription you wrote us
there at bumpsports on x at Andy lnkbacks on TikTok
and Instagram. Andy does a lot of stuff every single day.
Is the trend your friend free prop bets lots of
great information. You can also get his premium plays wt
dot buzz backslash al. Thank you, Andy, We'll see you
(21:47):
up for the divisional round. Now it's time let's check
in with Art to Caesar from the Westgates Super Book
to get a look behind that counter. All right, I
hope you guys have your pen and paper ready because
Art to Caesar is gonna give us a look behind
that counter there over the Westgate Super Book. Art wild
Card Weekend is always a fun one. We know that
(22:09):
there's some unwritten rules, right, Like a lot of people
are just gonna about the money lines, right because it's
just picked the winner. Is that what you guys typically
see is the public coming in strong lots of moneyline parlays.
Give us a little insight what goes on there at
the super book.
Speaker 10 (22:27):
Yeah, and you know what Kelly as I'm sure you know,
and I'm sure a lot of the listeners know. In
these playoff games too, when the winner, you know, when
the favorite wins, they really win, they cover. So there
are a lot of those. You have two big favorites
as well, in Baltimore and Buffalo, which are going to
(22:47):
carry a lot of the moneyline parlays. They're going to
be involved in all the teasers. So those two really
key a lot of that type of public action that
you'll see with teasers of favorites under a field goal,
and obviously all the moneyline favorites that will be you know,
not only the NFL games, but will be connected to
(23:09):
the college games as well.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
Yeah, those are always interesting from the public perspective. But
let's go what the sharps are betting, because that's what
everybody here on BATANT wants to know. What is the
big money, what is the sharp money? Tell me if
you guys have already had some big bets here by
Wednesday morning or if it's been more like a slow
trickle throughout the week.
Speaker 11 (23:35):
It's really hasn't.
Speaker 10 (23:36):
I mean, you know, people get excited for these playoff games,
so we've seen a lot of action roll in. I
would say the two or three biggest sharp things we've seen.
We've seen the big favorites reach maybe a high point
on a number and get bet. We saw Pittsburgh at
ten take sharp action from a respected guy. Same guy
(23:57):
also bet the Broncos plus nine, so he felt good
about taking the shot with the two big underdogs. And
I'd say the sharpest total move has been in the
first game Chargers and Texans. We open forty four, we're
now forty two and a half on that game. That
was early sharp money.
Speaker 7 (24:18):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (24:19):
I kind of correlates with what VR said there in
an earlier segment. What do you guys think here in
regards to these totals, Like, we know that the public
loves to bet overs, but then we've got sharp money
coming in early. Should we be sitting back waiting closer
to game time thinking that that public money is going
to push the lineup because during the traditional NFL season,
(24:40):
we don't see them coming as hot and heavy during
the playoffs. We know that they love to infiltrate the market.
Speaker 11 (24:47):
They do, and there will be plenty of public money.
Speaker 10 (24:50):
And it's a great question, Kevin, It's a great way
to look at Let's just say that charger total. Normally
in a spot, sharp money comes in on forty four.
You miss that number, you never get back there. But
with the public money the first game of the day,
public probably wants to come in and bet overs because
that's what they do. Maybe you get back to forty
(25:12):
three and a half, Maybe you get to the forty four.
Probably not the forty four, but maybe the market and
the public money pushes that total back up and you
can get back in closer to where the original sharp
money came in at. So that is something that you
definitely can watch because it's not Super Bowl public money,
but there's plenty of playoff public money during these games.
(25:35):
It's not just the sharp guys dictating all the moves.
Sometimes the public money can move the action and the market.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
All right, last question for our tell me your best
bet for Wildcard weekend. I know on Laska on Saturdays,
it's always in the comments section. They love getting your
opinion on your favorite game.
Speaker 10 (25:58):
I'm gonna be a little square here like the Eagles.
I think the Eagles are the move. I Green Bay
did not finish the season. Well, they're banged up. I
understand Hurts is also banged up, but he basically had
like it feels like a month off to get ready
for this game. And I just feel like the Eagles
at home, their defense is really good.
Speaker 11 (26:18):
And I don't put.
Speaker 10 (26:19):
Any stock into what I saw them play in Week one.
They played in Brazil. That feels like eons ago. I
know it's a bigger number you're sitting, you know, four
to four and a half, But I like the Eagles
to run away with that game by seven or more.
Speaker 1 (26:32):
I feel good about the Eagles sucking up to our producer, Dan,
the big Eagles fan. I love to hear that art
to seize. You guys can catch him almost every single
Saturday with me on wager Talks Last Call. You can
also watch him on Wager Talk Today on Wednesdays. He's
the best. Even when he's not working, he always is
all right. Tell us what's going on throughout the playoffs
(26:55):
there at the Westgate Superbook.
Speaker 11 (26:58):
Yeah, it's always kind of listen, we're gonna have a
lot going on.
Speaker 10 (27:00):
Obviously a lot of parlay cards and different parlay cards too.
We like to add parlay cards now where they're kind
of like Super Bowl cards where we put some player
props on the cards. We do some different things there.
Obviously we're always doing our minus one of weight reduced juice,
and might even go a little bit further with some
of our reduced juice on these playoff games, So keep
an eye out for that. And you know, as always,
(27:22):
I've say it all the time and all the Wage
to Talk shows, I go on coming and say hi.
Speaker 11 (27:26):
I have plenty people coming and say hi.
Speaker 10 (27:29):
They want a couple of minutes, and I always come
out and talk to everyone, and everyone is always so
gracious and nice, you know, and they're all Water Talk fans.
So if you're in town for the weekend, coming and
say hi.
Speaker 1 (27:38):
I love it. Don't bother trying to say hi to
John Murray. Just go say hi to Art to Caesar.
Make sure you guys are also following him at Art
Dice twenty one on your social channels. He's a great
follow over there as well. All right, guys, let's uh
see what we need to do next. Oh, wait these
(27:59):
glasses up. You guys know what they're here for. I'm
ready to nerd out with the stat daddy, Ralph Michaels.
Welcome in, Ralph. If you guys have never heard of Ralph,
never seen Ralph, never known Ralph, you are years behind.
This man has spent his entire career building well spreadsheets, databases,
(28:20):
and of course guides. Right now up on his page
and as well as his son Jeff's page over on
wager talk dot com, you can get his playoff guy
twenty five situations Ralph. I cannot wait to dive into that,
but you're gonna give us the situations right here on
bet on it for Wildcard weekends, well.
Speaker 5 (28:41):
Cal I tuned in to watch VR, and I have
to because I enjoy it so much, so he made
me do a little extra work. So I went to
the database and looked at the wildcard games as VR
was talking about. And since twenty eighteen, there's been thirty
two Wildcard games. The team that has won has gone
twenty six five and one eighty four percent against the spread.
(29:04):
But Kelly, there's a caveat three of those were as
a favorite of eight, nine or ten points. So if
you look at dogs and favorites up to eight, the
twenty five teams that applies to those teams have gone
twenty two to two and one against the spread ninety
one point seven percent. So VR did nail it on
(29:25):
the head. That just quantifies what he said. So, Kelly,
the chart, as you said, has twenty five situations in there.
Some of them are very small sample sizes, like how
do playoff teams do, like Denver that shut out their
last foe. There's not many of them, but I at
least put the data in so you can see. So
I'm going to knock off a few of those. But
(29:46):
first I just want to simply go over wild card
results since twenty ten. I'm going to reference to VR again.
He talked about how Joe Public bet all the overs,
the sharps all the unders. Why have the sharps bet
the unders? Kelly? Since twenty ten, if you bet every
under in the wild card game, you have gone thirty
(30:09):
nine and twenty five, you have cash sixty one percent
of the time. That's why the sharps are betting the
unders in the wild card games. When I look at
big home favorites in the NFL Wildcard rounds since twenty ten,
those are favorites of seven or higher. They've gone sixty
two point five percent against the spread over under seven
(30:33):
and nine, so two games under five hundred one situation
that has been a negative home favorites of minus one
to minus six and a half, so you're a home
favorite of under a touchdown. Those teams have only gone
twelve nineteen and two against the spread, that is thirty
nine percent, and they've gone thirteen and twenty over under
(30:57):
that is sixty one percent to the under. And finally,
there's only been fifteen home dogs in the wild card
rounds since twenty ten. Against the spread they've gone eight
six and one fifty seven percent and the over unders
five and ten thirty three percent. So you're not going
to base a play on the under and those situations.
(31:17):
But again, when you have a sample size of thirteen years,
it is pretty significant to realize that these teams are
so evenly matched. So those small favorites do get upset
very often in couple situations. I just want to go
over Kelly Road teams with more wins. I get asked
this very often. The Vikings, the Commanders, and the Chargers
(31:39):
all have better records, but they have to go on
the road because their opponents won their division. Well, road
teams with more wins have gone twelve and twenty one
straight up, that is thirty six point four percent, and
they've only gone twelve twenty to one thirty seven point
five against the spread. So again, more wins does not
(32:01):
mean you are the better team. I often get asked
how teams do that finish the season strong or poorly?
I have multiple situations in the guide. Two specifics. I
wanted to point out teams off back to back wins
by twenty points or more in a wild card game.
This goes all the way back to two thousand and one.
(32:22):
Only one team applies. That's the Baltimore Ravens. Teams that
are off back to back wins by twenty points or
more are only seven to fifteen thirty two percent against
the spread. And another situation I looked at yet Baltimore
defense has been elite. They allowed under thirty two points
their last three games combined since two thousand and one.
(32:47):
Teams that have done that have only gone forty five
point eight percent against the spread. But listen to this
cl You think a team that has allowed under eleven
points per game the last three games would have a
great defensive presence in the playoffs. In the wildcard round,
teams like the Ravens thirty seven overs thirteen unders. That
(33:08):
is seventy four percent to the over, so again opposite
of what you would think. And lastly, here's a pretty
wild one to talk about a total. If you have
a wildcard team with a total of thirty nine or
more and the teams have not met this year so
they are not division foes, they were now part of
(33:29):
the regular season schedule. It applies to the Bills and
Broncos and Texans and Chargers since two thousand and three,
those teams have five overs and twenty five unders. That
is eighty three percent to the under so Bills, Broncos,
and Texans, Chargers, so twenty five situations. I have the
(33:51):
playoffs by round for each of the last four years,
including the seedings. I have the team logs of how
the NFL teams did against team that had a winning
record when they played them. All of that in the
guide absolutely free WT dot buzzbackslash RM or WT dot
buzzbackslash JMS to get that guide for free.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
Ralph is the best Even if he did not say
some great things about my best bet, he told you,
guys where you can get his guide, wt Dot Buzz,
Backslash RM. You can also get his premium plays for
this weekend in the NFL. Make sure you guys are
giving Ralph a follow on social media at cow Sports LV.
Ralph will see you for the divisional round. It's time
to get into those best bets, all right. Marco DiAngelo
(34:44):
is up first. Marco, tell me about your seven day
all access pass for seventy seven bucks.
Speaker 4 (34:51):
Well, Kelly, you know we had a great twenty twenty
four and we're rolling into twenty twenty five. We want
to keep things rolling, and what we've got for you
you can get a seven day all access package. Now,
you know, a seven day all access is ninety nine dollars,
but if you use q pon code MD seven to seven,
the number seven seven MD, you will get seven days
(35:15):
all access all sports for just seventy seven dollars. We
are the number one handicapper at wager talk since October
first in money one. You can join me in on
my four percent best bet plays. We're on an eleven
and three run. We've had great success. With the five percents.
As you know as well, those aren't as frequent. Join
(35:36):
us for this winning run in Kelly, speaking of winning runs,
let's get the playoffs off to a start with a
winner on the best bets. And I'm gonna go to
the LA Chargers at Houston for my best bet. And
the Chargers are gonna be a very popular play my opinion,
people are gonna want to run to coach Harbaugh what
(35:58):
he's done in the first season and in LA with
the Chargers, He's got them to the playoffs. They won
their way into the playoffs over the last couple of
weeks of the season. But you know what, if I
am the head coach of Houston, all I am doing
all week long in the locker room is playing the
sound bites from the Pittsburgh Cincinnati game with the announcers
(36:21):
and the Chargers Raiders game sound bites. Because all you
heard on Saturday when Pittsburgh was taking on Cincinnati was
obviously Cincinnati was in a must win situation to keep
their playoff hopes alive, and once Baltimore had already won
earlier in the day, the narrative was Pittsburgh Steelers want
(36:41):
to win this game so that they can go to Houston. Okay,
they're calling out the Houston Texans. Everybody wanted to play
the Texans. Well, the Steelers lost that game and that
opened the door for the Chargers on Sunday. And that's
all you heard on that game. And you saw that
line shoot up the minute the Steelers lost on Saturday,
because it became meaningful for the Chargers. They were the
(37:04):
team that could win the rights to play Euston. The
other thing that I would do is I would put
the spread up on the chalkboard and remind them, not
only does everybody want to play you, Vegas thinks you're
an underdog at home and you won your division. This
team has been totally disrespected coming in here and everybody
(37:24):
is drinking the Chargers kool aid. Well, before you take
a sip of that Chargers kool aid, let me point
out that the Chargers have eleven wins on the season.
Only two of those wins on the season came against
the playoff team, and that team they beat twice. That
was the Denver Broncos with a rookie quarterback. They had
(37:44):
to come from behind at home in the second game
to win that one. Houston went three and two over
the last five games, and people were talking about how
you know they slid in and they had the easy division. Yeah,
they did have an easy division, but three two slate
at the end. The two losses came against Kansas City
and Baltimore, two of the best teams in the AFC,
(38:07):
and that Kansas City loss was on the road and
it was a one possession game. Those two teams also
have something in common, both dynamic quarterbacks. Well, Justin Herbert's
a good quarterback too, but what is he that the
other two? What is he not that the other two
are mobile? You have Lamar Jackson that destroyed Houston with
(38:30):
his mobility in the running game. And then you have
Patrick Mahomes who isn't a runner by design, but man
does he extend the plays. And when he does run,
he runs calculated runs to extend plays. That's not what
you're gonna get from Justin Herbert. Houston has playoff experience
from last year. They went to the playoffs with a
(38:51):
rookie quarterback. They won the first playoff game against Cleveland,
and then they ran into that nemesis of them, the
Baltimore Ravens. I think that experience last year will help
them in this particular game. And let's not forget too
the Chargers are going to be playing their third straight
road game. That's not easy. I don't care if it's
(39:11):
playoffs or not. You've still been on the road for
three very meaningful football games for them. They had to
go on the road and win in New England. Granted
it's New England's bad, but they had to win that
game so they had to have the pedal to the medal.
Then they had to beat Denver in that stretch as well,
(39:33):
and last week go on the road and beat a
division rival, the Raiders. I also like the fact that
Houston has the better defense and they're now a home underdog.
Speaker 7 (39:45):
Over the last.
Speaker 4 (39:45):
Nine games, they've held six of nine opponents to one
hundred and five yards or less rushing, and of the
three teams that rushed for more than one hundred and
five yards, as I mentioned, two of them was Kansas
City and Baltimore. I'm gonna go ahead and take Houston
in this one. I think they've overreacted to this one.
(40:07):
At worst, this should have been a pick them, not
two and a half or three point line. I will
take Houston I think they win it out right. I'll
also say I can't argue if this thing settles at
two and a half with putting that old teaser in
there as well.
Speaker 1 (40:22):
Kelly took the words right out of my mouth, Marco,
I already tease the Houston Texans. So I am with
you there, Joe Vernieri. Wild Card weekend is always interesting,
but we hardly ever see big dogs. Went outright, and
I thought maybe you were gonna come here with like
(40:43):
a big barking dog, and yet you're just back with
another under.
Speaker 6 (40:48):
I am back, and I am way too high for this,
I'll tell you right now, Kelly. And so is this
damn game between the Ravens and the Steelers. Here listen,
here's what we know. First, this game opened up forty six,
forty six and a half, and we've seen nothing but
Underbuddy come in and hit this down to forty three
(41:08):
and a half. And quite honestly, given what we've seen
from the Steelers offense over the last month, the last
four games in which they have not been able to
muster up more than seventeen points in any one game.
In fact, they took on one of the worst defenses
they are in Cincinnati and managed, yeah, just seventeen points
(41:30):
in that game. They are getting worse. These are two
teams going in two totally different directions right now. So
I do think Pittsburgh, well, they're almost a double digit
dog for a reason. And I know a lot of
people are They're gonna regurgitate Tomlin as a as an
underdog and his record and yat yualla. Here's a couple
(41:52):
out of the numbers you need to know. Lamar Jackson
and Ravens together have played seven playoff games. Those games
five and two to the Under, and not one of
those games has ever seen more than forty four points
scored in them. These two teams alone have played nine
times since twenty twenty, the Under eight and one. In
(42:14):
those nine games since twenty twenty, in fact, only one
time has the winner of that game got more than
twenty points. You want to know when that was? Oh yeah,
the last game when the Ravens just scored thirty four
points again them, But that game was absurd and it
was an outlier. They went five of seven together inside
the red zone, They were three of three on field goals.
(42:37):
There was even a defensive touchdown scored. But more importantly,
Zay Flowers absolutely smoked the Steelers in that last game.
Eight targets, team high, five receptions, team high, had over
one hundred yards team high. In fact, no other wide
receiver had more than fourteen yards in that game. They
(42:59):
play man coverage in Pittsburgh. There's only one guy on
that roster of Baltimore that can actually beat their man coverage,
and it's Jay Flowers. Well there's another guy too, but
he's a tight end, uh and I guarantee you he's
not gonna be going eighty yards to the house anytime
soon in this game. So Mark Andrews is the most
(43:19):
dependable receiver that they're gonna have for the defense the
Pittsburgh Steelers play. But Jay Flowers him not being available
for the Ravens in this game is a big, big problem.
Why because over the years, I mean, he's already beaten
the Steelers for one hundred and thirty nine receiving yards
this year. Outside of Andrews and maybe the Isaiah likely
(43:42):
the entire rest of the Ravens wide receiver roster has
a total of one hundred and twelve receiving yards versus
the Steelers. Here in a couple of games and then,
by the way, that's only on twenty three targets. So
his favorite two targets are Andrews and Jay Flowers, and
only one of those guys can stretch the field without
him in a lineup. This is going to be a
(44:03):
much different Ravens offense. So congrats on scoring thirty four
to the last game. You ain't getting thirty four in
this game. Cal It's a matter of whoever gets to
twenty first wins this game. And my feeling is the
Steelers are going to be struggling all day against this
revamped Ravens defense, which nobody wants to see him to
talk about, but yet has been absolutely dominating over the
(44:25):
last month and a half. Forty three and a half
to me, still way too high here. This has got
twenty to three written all over it. And that's exactly
what I'm planning on happening here.
Speaker 1 (44:37):
All right, Teddy Covers going with the total himself back
to that Commander's Bucks game. Am I gonna see some
fireworks on Sunday night?
Speaker 2 (44:48):
I expect that we'll see some fireworks on Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (44:50):
Absolutely.
Speaker 2 (44:51):
I mean both these teams have been overteam all year.
Tampa twelve and five to the over, Washington eleven and
six to the over. Both these offenses is in good
current form. Washington scored thirty plus three times in their
last five games. Tampa scored twenty four plus each of
the last seven games, catching six overs or sorry, five
(45:12):
to one and one to the over during that span.
Speaker 3 (45:14):
The Bucks have the buck.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
The difference in this Tampa offense is here Bucky Irving
a Rashad White, but they've been able to run the
football effectively. And when you can have a balanced offense
against Washington defense, you can move the football up and
not a field against them. Liam Cohen, the Bucks offense cornator,
he's going to be a head coach next year, and
he's done a heck of a job designing that offense.
(45:38):
Cliff Kingsbury, too, may well be a head coach again
next year.
Speaker 3 (45:42):
Washington's offense corenador.
Speaker 2 (45:43):
And we look at what Kingsbury has been able to
do with a rookie QB. And let me go back
to rookie QB's here for a minute, because obviously Jaydon
Danils got a rookie QB on the road, you're playing
them all over the total. Well, let's start with this
Jadon Daniels is far more battle tested than your average ROOKIEQB,
and it comes to what he did in college. He's mobile.
Look at what other rookie qbs have done. This isn't
(46:04):
Skyler Thompson starting a playoff game, or John Woolford or.
Speaker 7 (46:08):
Connor Cook or AJ mccern.
Speaker 2 (46:10):
And all those guys who started playoff games in the
last decade rookie qbs, and they've all been off. But
this isn't a backup quarterback. This is a superstar quarterback.
CEJ Stroud last year playoff opener hung forty five on
Cleveland over and he cashed over Baltimore too the next week.
Brock Perdy in twenty twenty two as a rookie against
Seattle hung forty one on the Seahawks in the opener
(46:32):
forty one twenty three. That game flew over the total.
So yeah, I understand Jay Daniels a rookie. He's a
good rookie, all right. Neither team has a giveaways problem
with turnovers on offense. Neither team has a takeaways problem
on defense. You know, neither team's giving the ball away
and neither team is Both teams in the bottom half
of the NFL turnovers forced, So I don't see turnovers
(46:52):
being the factor in this ballgame. They met once already
this year. It was back in Week one and Daniel
didn't know what he was doing yet. Oh by the way,
that game finished with fifty seven points in that contest.
So which team to be trusted to get stops neither.
Let's not forget the cluster injuries in the secondary. The
Bucks have injuries in the secondary. Even if and both
these guys are very questionable Jordan Whitehead and Jamal Dean
(47:14):
suit up, they still have injuries in the secondary. Michel Lattimore,
he's been out for Washington. He's very questionable this week
as well. So weather looks fine. It's not going to
be raining in theory. And this is the highest total
on the betting board for good reason. I like Tampa
and Washington over the total. And I got a promo
(47:35):
code as well. Teddy seven gets you seven day all
access just seventy seven bucks at checkout Again. Teddy seven
at Checkout is a seven day all access pass. You
can save twenty two dollars and get every play every
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Speaker 1 (47:50):
Teddy's homepage WT Dot Buzz backslash t C all Right, Well,
I asked, how come nobody else is playing a big dog,
So I guess I have to do it. We don't
have a bark dog segment this weekend, and I'm not
so sure that Denver is really barking, But I do
think Sean Payton and this Denver Broncos team can scare
(48:12):
the crap out of this Bills team. Look, the reality
is the Broncos were picked to win five games, six games,
give or take by Vegas. Now here they are in
the playoffs. I was wrong about bow Knicks. Speaking of
bo Nicks, this is obviously his first postseason appearance because
(48:32):
he is a rookie, and maybe it should scare me
that you know he's gonna make his first postseason appearance
as a rookie on the road. But I'm not betting
on bow Knicks. I'm betting on this Denver defense. They
rank in the top three in red zone defense this
(48:52):
season long, and I understand what the Bills in Josh
Allen are capable if Josh Allen by all means, has
cleaned up those turnovers and has done really well in
the red zone. But I say this because I do
think this is where the rubber meets the road, and
we see this game go under the total, making those
eight and half points just a little bit juice here.
Speaker 7 (49:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (49:16):
Of course, if you watched last week's game, we're not
gonna give Denver any pats on the back for beating
Kansas City, who basically all but lied down so that
they didn't have to face Sincy here in the playoffs.
And I know Buffalo is eight to NOO at home
this year, so I can see where everybody's gonna have
Buffalo in their money line parlays. Everybody's gonna tease Buffalo,
and I don't blame you for that, but keep an
(49:38):
eye here, Denver. Broncos six and three. That's sixty six
point seven percent against the spread on the road in
the last two seasons, five and two straight up in
their last seven games now, albeit their losses have come
to Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson. Again, I
want to give Josh Allen, who is I am VP,
(50:00):
all of those flowers, but I do think eight and
a half is too many points. No, I will not
be sprinkling on that money line. Broncos plus eight and
a half and that's the show this week. Guys, it's
gonna get shorter every single week because well, we're running
out of games, but we'll be back for the divisional
round next week. Me, Ralph fi R, Marco, Teddy, Andy Art.
(50:27):
Who else is on the show? Uh yeah, Joe and
myself Until then, guys, up, Joe's just hiding off at
things because I let's everybody until next week. Guys, let's
bet on it.
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