January 29, 2025 • 45 mins
We kick things off with NFL picks, predictions and everything you need to know about Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and Eagles.
Bet On It Super Bowl 59 Time Stamps:
Introduction 00:00
SBLIX Sides 00:40
Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 13:24
SBLIX Total 19:15
SBLIX Props 33:25
Bet On It Parting Words 42:10
Bet On It Super Bowl 59 Time Stamps:
Introduction 00:00
SBLIX Sides 00:40
Trends and Angles with Ralph Michaels 13:24
SBLIX Total 19:15
SBLIX Props 33:25
Bet On It Parting Words 42:10
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome into the last NFL edition of bet on It
for the season. That is, because, of course the Super
Bowl is right around the corner. We wanted to get
to you guys early, as soon as we had some
of our stuff ready to go. We wanted to be
here to give you guys our opinion on the game.
Although we haven't really seen much movement since the opener.
We'll get into that here in a minute. Let's bring
(00:22):
in Marco DiAngelo, Joe Vernieri, and Teddy Covers, and of
course I am Kelly Stewart, your bright green host, and
we'll get to that here in a minute. Guys. Lots
of twos floating around there on the wager Talk or
Odds Logic screen, depending on where you like to view
and shop around, and this one's going to be interesting, guys.
(00:42):
We'll get to the total after we talked to Ralph Michaels,
but first I really want to focus on the side.
This one opened really quickly at a pick him in
a couple spots one and a half, then immediately two.
And I got this at the hard rocket two, thinking,
all right, that is our threshold. Now here were are
no movement, and Mark, I'm gonna go to you first. I, well,
(01:05):
I kind of upset Chiefs Fandom, Kingdom whatever they call
themselves last weekend because I said, hey, listen, it's my
fault for bet against the Chiefs. Granted, I had bills
in a teaser and I had the over, so I
didn't really bet against the Chiefs, but I did think
that there were some interesting things, right. I have some
friends who are not Chiefs fans say you can't bet
(01:25):
against playoff Patty, and other people say, Kelly, you gotta
be on the same side as the refs. Whatever your
conspiracy theory may or may not be, do you think
that there may be is just a little little truth
to some of that.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Marco Well asking somebody that Ben Buffalo if that might
not be a fair answer for me. But yeah, the
dual possession catch that is correct. Whenever two players simultaneously
catch the ball, it goes to the offense. No, I
(01:58):
have no qualms with that. What I you have a
qualm with is that as they came to the ground,
Worthy only had one arm around the ball, his other
hand was on the ground catching his fall, and the
tip of the football did hit the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
To me, it should have been an incomplete pass.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
There was a penalty on the play would have still
given Kansas City a first down, but they would have
been at the twenty instead of at the five to start.
But that's neither here nor there. My problem is with
the fourth down call. You had two guys come in
from opposite sides of the field, one guy north of
the yard to gain and the other guy south of
(02:38):
the yard to gain, and they end up going with
the guy on the south side of it and it's
not a first down. What drives me nuts is the
guy that they went with his spot on the ball
had jo or Josh Allen's back to him. He could
not see where the ball was at as he was
(03:01):
holding it where the guy that put it over the
line of scrimmage was running right at Alan saw where
his ball where the ball was being held, which he
actually was holding it way high up by his neck
as he was going through to make sure he had
the first down.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
That's my problem with it.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
But yes, Kansas City finds a way to win these games,
and give them credit. I just don't like that Allen's
getting so much grief for being zero and four because
he's done nothing wrong. If you look at the two
quarterback stats for that head four game playoff career. They're identical,
absolutely identical, and yet one guy is zero and four.
(03:42):
But Kelly getting to this game. Here's my problem. I
lean to a side, and I'll tell you who that
side is. We are taping on Wednesday, ten or eleven
days ahead of.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
The Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I have not locked in my official side, but I
am definitely leaning to one side in that site is Philadelphia. However,
I have met against Kansas City in the last two
Super Bowls and I thought I should have won both
of them. Definitely should have won last year's that was
just brutal with the forty nine ers. But I will
point something out, and this is a stat that gives
(04:17):
me a little bit of pause. Teams who score forty
points or more in their conference championship game. Dan, you
better hang up, plug your ears. You don't want to
hear this. They are just three and seven in the
Super Bowl. Okay, straight up. And we saw the Eagles,
which I was very glad, very happy to see because
(04:39):
I had a five percent play on the Eagles last week.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
But they hung up a fifty five and that just a.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Little bit concerned me that you know, maybe just a
little too easy last week. Obviously, the four turnovers were
a big factor. Speaking of turnovers, that's the other thing
that concerns me. You know, I know turnovers are a
product of, yes, luck and good defense, but this stat
(05:05):
is ridiculous. Do you realize Philadelphia has gone five straight
games without a turnover in their last six games, and
I had to double check this, they have a turnover
margin of twenty to two. Okay, that is just absolutely insane.
A credit to defense for a lot of it, but still,
(05:26):
I mean, every fumble that hits the ground, they're falling
on it. The luck is going their way. So that's
a problem for me. A little bit of a concern
is does the luck factor continue? Did they have it
too easy in that championship game against the Washington team
that I felt was in an absolutely horrible spot, fourth
game on the road. I don't care how good this
(05:47):
rookie season has been, You're still a rookie. At some point,
Cinderella strikes the midnight hour, and it did for Washington
last week. I'm leaning to Philly, and I'll give you
more reasons on that when we break down the total
later in the show, Because it kind of all goes
together with it. But right now my official lean is Philadelphia,
(06:09):
and no, I'm not wearing a red jacket because sending
subliminal messages to Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
You got a preview of my golf Stream jacket for Saturday.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
I am in Florida at the moment, going to be
going to golf Stream for the Holy Bulls.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
We start to get ready for the road to the
Triple crowd.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
I'm very jealous. I'm not gonna get to go to
golf Stream. I am wearing this jacket and I don't
have any subliminal messages. Joe Ranieri, put on your tenfoil hat.
Kind of tell me what you think as far as
this game goes. Because last year I was on San Francisco.
I laid the point in a half with that team,
and by all means, it felt great for a better
(06:49):
part of four and a half quarters. And then well
what does Patrick Mahomes do. He does what Patrick Mahomes does,
and he shoved it that ticket right up you know where,
and I proceeded to go to better at the West
Gates super Book. I said I had enough, and you know,
our good friend hen Keem prophet pam Aldonado. Everybody that
was holding a Chiefs ticket got the middle finger for me,
not really, but the Irish goodbye if you will. I said,
(07:12):
all right, I've had enough, And yet here I am,
almost one year later, doing it again.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (07:17):
Yeah, it's like it's like groundhog Day here, Kelly, it
really is. It feels like this because it wasn't that
long ago, or maybe it was that long ago, I
don't know. It all seems to blend in here. But
there came a point in my life where instead of
hating tom Brady and wanting him to lose so bad
(07:41):
that all I would do, Kelly, is every chance in
the big games, in the playoffs, I would try to
bet against him and be like, screw you, tom Brady.
Eventually I think I have to like, oh no, no,
Like the fourth Superbot was like what am I doing? Like,
you might as well just appreciate the greatness while you
can here, So if you can't beat him, you might
(08:01):
as well join them here. And you know, we're gonna
go for almost two decades of Tom Brady to I
don't even know how long we're gonna have to deal
with this with Patrick Mahomes. But it's the same situation here,
is that we're so we were so Tom Brady and
Patriots out, we're getting to the point where we're so
Kansas City and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. We're just like,
(08:24):
come on, enough is enough. But much like last week
when I said, I don't understand what we're doing here,
it's a coin flip game. If I can tease Buffalo
up over a touchdown, I'm good. I don't care who
wins then at that particular point, and I feel we're
exactly in the same spot here cal with Kansas City
(08:46):
and Philadelphia. With being able to get Philadelphia over a
touchdown at seven and a half, I have a pretty
good idea where the total is going in this one.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I'm not opposed at all to.
Speaker 5 (08:59):
Go in the same game teaser way here giving me
Philadelphia at seven and a half, and we'll talk about
the total a little bit later here. But I think
there's a correlation here in a big, big way. Work
last week with Buffalo and Kansas City came down to
a field goal. I ultimately think this game is gonna
(09:19):
come down to a field goal when it's all said
and done. I think The bigger question is gonna be
we know the public is gonna run to the window
late and bet the over. The question is are the
pros going to agree with it or not. I think
I have a pretty good idea where this game is
going now from a defensive perspective, But as far as
I'm concerned, instead of trying to thread a needle here
(09:41):
with the side, I'm just going to use Philadelphia. I'm
gonna I'm gonna tease them up to over seven and
a half and come back with a bet on the total,
and that will be my super Bowl play here.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
All right, we'll get into the totter into a little bit,
but do not disagree Joe Ranieri. That bears excuse me
that Bill Teazer was never in doubt, Not for one
second was I concerned about not catching that ticket in
the over was very easy as well. Teddy covers, I
know you have a five percent play up on the
Super Bowl, so we're not going to get a ton
from you here, But I gotta I gotta know, talk
(10:15):
to me a little bit about your uh, your rationale
when betting the Super Bowl. Give us a little bit
of insight into what you're like, what you like to
look for what we should be avoiding. Little little I'm
trying to think of the right word, little help for
our more recreational betters.
Speaker 6 (10:32):
Sure well, one.
Speaker 7 (10:33):
Thing that I don't like to do in the Super
Bowl is lay a lot of points. In fact, I've
made a rule, and you know rules are made to
be broken. This is rule I followed every year since
I made it, and that's I'm not laying more than
a field goal with anyone in a Super Bowl. If
I'm laying it better be a short favorite, because the
teams have proven to be very, very even. Of course,
(10:53):
this is a game in which the rule doesn't come
into play because nobody's laying more than a field goal,
not now, not a week from now, not five minutes
for a kickoff. This line's not getting a three. I
don't think it's getting a two again. All right, one
and a half. Paste it on the way you talk
live odd screen right now, an area two to be found.
Same thing with the odds logic live Odds screen, which
we'll talk about in a minute. But it's all one
(11:15):
and a half. That's the line for the Super Bowl
in this one, and I won each to the last
three years with my side play last year he had
a teaser side. In total, we won the previous two years,
one with Kansas City minus one with the Cincinnati plus.
Speaker 6 (11:29):
Maybe it was Kansas. I think it was Case.
Speaker 7 (11:31):
Plus actually in Cincinnati plus. But three straight winners, and
this is one. You know, there are years where Super
Bowl Sunday is rapidly approaching and I'm sitting there sweating,
you know, what am I gonna do? What am I
gonna play? Going back and forth. This is not one
of those years. This is the year where on Sunday night,
(11:51):
when the Super Bowl line came out, I'm like, I
know who I'm on and it's a strong opinion, and
I'm like, let's load up five percent ticket available right
now on pagebt dot buzz Backslash TC for Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
We will, of course talk props and totals before all.
Speaker 7 (12:08):
Is said and done, but this is one that jumped
off the page at me call, and when they're jumping
off the page at me, I'm interested.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
So no hesitation for me on Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Yeah, I love it.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
No hesitation, just just both of us. We just went
straight to the window to place our wagers. That that
is really great confidence. I love that.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
Yeah, So, I mean the five percents have been fantastic.
You know, across sports, every sport that I do, the
five percents have made money. They're well over sixty percent
long term, I think twelve and five seventy percent since
September with the five percent, the NFL five percents have
been great. So I can get it right now on
my pagebt dot Buzz, Backslash, TC, but not hype.
Speaker 6 (12:48):
Let's give you guys some total info before all said done,
and some props as well.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Love it.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Teddy's also been doing very well in the NBA, so
he's going to be joining us on last Call to
discuss that as well. You guys also know who joins
us on last call. Arn't just Caesar and of course
VR joins us every single Saturday and Sunday, but both
of them are out for this week. It is an
early show. They said, hey, we're gonna pump the brakes
bring you some later information, so we're gonna go right
(13:14):
into it. Time for some TNA with Ralph Michaels. It's
time for the guy with all the guides, including your
super Bowl guide at wager talk dot com. Ralph Michaels TNA,
I heard you off screen. We've got one that I
think I'm really gonna like.
Speaker 8 (13:33):
Yeah, you know, and there's not many, Kelly, It's the
Super Bowl. We're talking one game, you know what I mean.
So when I go through these angles, you're not going
to change the way you bet, but at least you're
informed on what's happened, so you know. Before we talk
about the wager Talk prop guide, let me just go
through some Super Bowl numbers so you have them. The favorite,
of course, oh and three. The last three years, the
underdog has gone two and one straight up, but three
(13:57):
and zero against the spread.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
The favors are three and three.
Speaker 8 (14:01):
The last six years, but if you go all the
way back to two thousand and seven, underdogs in the
Super Bowl eleven and six against the spread.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
As far as totals go, last year was a push.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
The year before over In the last six years, though,
there were four straight unders.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
So in the last six years.
Speaker 8 (14:17):
The over under is one four and one one over
four unders, and the push teams that got out gained
at home in the conference championship like Kansas City did,
are one in.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Five against the spread.
Speaker 8 (14:32):
Since twenty ten, but then I also have a one
in four trend for Philadelphia. Teams that scored forty points
or more in their conference championship are one and four
against the spread since two thousand and two. And if
both teams went over in the conference championships like Case
and Philadelphia did, the over unders actually three and six
(14:56):
since two thousand and two and kel This one shocked me.
I had to run this three times, and then I
had to manually go through each year to make sure
it was accurate.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
I figured there was something wrong.
Speaker 8 (15:10):
The team that had a first round by, like Kansas City,
playing an opponent that did not have a first round by.
Since two thousand and three, it's occurred ten times. The
team that had a first round by oh and ten
against the spread. The team that had a first round
by is also one and eight straight up, and the
(15:33):
only team that won with a first round by was
back in two thousand and nine, the Steelers beat the
Cardinals but did not cover, and that was on a
last second touchdown. I mean, can you imagine that? It's
almost on an h to nine straight up in eights streak?
So never ran that angle before. I'm shocked at the results.
We'll see what plays out this year. So you know,
(15:55):
I have a few props to go over. But let's
talk about the prop guide call and it is. I
love doing it. It teaches you a lot. It shows
you some of the past history. And there's about thirty
five props over the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
What occurred? Did they go over, did they go under,
did they win? Did they lose?
Speaker 8 (16:17):
And then I also have the last six years team stats,
so at an easy glance, you can read how many
first downs the team had, how many third down conversions,
how many fourth downs, so you can see the history
of that. Then I have individual player stats the last
six years, and then a fun thing, I show exactly
what each combination of squares were so you could see
(16:40):
if you're a square, ever had one before, how many
opportunities it's occurred. So the guide absolutely free on my homepage,
WT Buzz backslash RM and I just want to quickly
share four things from the guide that you can take
out of it. The team to score last in the
Super Bowl, will they win the game?
Speaker 3 (17:02):
Yes or no? Kelly?
Speaker 8 (17:05):
The Super Bowl goes back the last fifteen years. On
I prop sheet, that prop is fifteen to zero. And
in fact it goes back three more years, it has
cashed eighteen straight times. The team to score last in
the game won the game eighteen straight is amazing. But
I will say this, about two years ago it was
minus one fifty five, minus one sixty. The early number
(17:28):
I saw this year was juiced all the way to
minus two to twenty. So I'm going to blame the
Way to Talk Super Bowl prop Guide the last few
years that pointed that out that these casinos really aren't
juicing it that much. Team to score in the first
six minutes of the game, I've only scored one time
the last eight years, seven knows. So if you bet
(17:52):
no score in the first six minutes of the game,
you are seven and one the last eight years and
eleven and four of the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Will there be a score the last two minutes of
the second half?
Speaker 8 (18:06):
Yes is three and zero, and yes is six and
three the last nine years. And longest TD under forty
eight yards the under has cashed back to back years,
and the under is six and one the last seven years.
One more I'll share for you as well. The shortest
(18:27):
TV under a yard and a half. People think, oh,
that's pretty hard to get to there's so many one
yard touchdowns because of pass interference or the tush push
for Philadelphia, the shortest TV under one and a half
yards has cashed six times and lost twice.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
So again, download the prop sheet.
Speaker 8 (18:43):
There's about thirty props there for you to take a
look at, and it'll help you become an informed better
when you're having fun with these Super Bowl props.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
What a guide. I just downloaded it, WT dot buzz
backslash RM. It is completely free. Ralph does a lot
of free stuff there over on his homepage. We appreciate
him at CALA Sports LV. You guys are following him
on x I'm sure he's got some little tidbits coming
up over there, as well as the wager talk, TikTok
and Instagram pages. Thank you, Ralph, and happy betting. Let's
(19:13):
bring it back to the guys and get these glasses
off before I get a headache and talk some totals.
You guys may have recognized that I did not mention
the proptologists.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Well.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
In fact, Andy and I have decided that as soon
as the Westgate super Books prop packet comes out late
Thursday night, we're gonna get to work Friday morning, we're
gonna film a special standalone episode of bet On It Extra,
if you want to call it with Andy Lang. We're
gonna go through all of his favorite props and of
course get you guys some the best of your information.
(19:46):
Ralph already gave us a ton, which was wonderful. Now
we're gonna bring the guys back. Of course, let's get
into that Super Bowl total. You know, Teddy mentioned this
one had not moved a ton as far as what
we saw from the last couple of days. Right now
on the wager Talk odd screen, we're seeing this one
pretty much across the board, and no books are really
(20:10):
making big moves here on what day is it? January
twenty ninth, twenty twenty five, forty nine and a halfs
There is a couple of forty nine's and then our
good friends over at Draftings the only one forty eight
and a half. This one's going to be interesting because
you'd think a book like that, Teddy would want to
get ahead of it. Most of their audience is going
(20:30):
to bet the over, right, So yes.
Speaker 7 (20:33):
Most of the Draftings audience is likely to bet the over,
but in terms of their odds making and their line
making capabilities. They're a book that how do we phrase
this politely, I'm not going to strive. That's why there's
stock price as well. All right, that's I'll just leave
it at that. Sometimes the issues with putting up the
(20:56):
appropriate number at the right time. And I'm not worried
about what one book is versus another book versus another book.
Speaker 6 (21:01):
Total here, forty nine is last forty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (21:03):
If DK has an outlier line by a and it's
forty eight and a half minus one fifteen to the
over right now as we speak, So it's.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Not even that much of an outlier line.
Speaker 7 (21:12):
Now, everyone remembers last week what we see, two shootouts,
both games flying over the total. Everyone remembers last time
these two teams met in February, shootout, thirty eight to
thirty five, flying over the total. I'm not expecting more
of the same. I'm really not. First, we're talking about
(21:33):
two elite defenses. Philadelphia number one in the NBA, in
the NBA, in the NFL, Phillies number one in the
NFL yards per play allowed this season.
Speaker 6 (21:44):
What have we seen in the postseason?
Speaker 7 (21:46):
Their defense has absolutely lived up to the hype, and
they lived up to the stats, and that's why they're here.
Speaker 6 (21:51):
Now, we took at Kansas City.
Speaker 7 (21:54):
Their yards per play numbers not quite as off the
charts good as Philadelphia. Nonetheless, we're talking about a two
time one of each the last two Super Bowls. They've
dominated here in the postseason when not facing Josh Allen,
and we know how good Kansas City's defense has been.
Speaker 6 (22:09):
It's been elite.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
That's why they are two time defending champs, every bit
as much as Patrick Mahomes and company.
Speaker 6 (22:15):
So we're talking about two elite defenses. We're also talking
about two teams that are.
Speaker 7 (22:21):
Very very comfortable, slow, methodical drives, killing clock, grinding first downs.
It's not about big plays for Philly. Yeah, they gotten
a bunch of big plays in the running game here
in the postseason and throughout the regular season. I'm not
convinced those big players are going to be there against
Kansas City's defense. We think about Patrick Mahomes, we think
about him firing downfield. We think about Tyreek Hill making
(22:43):
that great catch last time the squadron the Super Bowl.
Not this year, not this team. Dinkin and Duncan, long
slow drives, two elite defenses and a total that is
a little bit inflated, and everyone remembers all the overs.
Speaker 6 (23:00):
All the way I can look here is under.
Speaker 7 (23:01):
All right, It's not a debate in my mind as
to which way I want to go with this total,
under or pass for this better and let's root against overtime.
Speaker 6 (23:12):
If you have the under this year, Oh.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Boy, overtime already making me nauseous with my Eagles money line.
Bet there, Teddy, Joe Vernira, you mentioned that you like
the Eagles and the teaser. Here's the problem. Not everybody
has the ability to do an open teaser. And then, oh,
by the way, football season's over, so then what do
you start doing Teasing it with a national championship? In
college basketball, it gets a little dicey right now. With
(23:36):
the Bills last week, it was easy because I had
already teased them with Ohio State. The next night after
as soon as the game ended versus the Ravens, I
teas him with Ohio State. So I had him in there,
locked and loaded. A little non traditional. But now here's
a standalone are we looking at teasing it with the total?
I agree with Teddy. I leaned towards the under in
this one. Should we be teasing the total on fifty
(23:58):
four and a half is the is the under pretty
much if you have forty eight and a half on
your screen. So talk to me about a non traditional
teaser here in regards to the total, or if you
actually like a play on the total itself.
Speaker 4 (24:12):
Well I do it.
Speaker 5 (24:13):
There's a couple of things I like in it's because
I think there's a whole lot of props that correlate
to exactly what Teddy was just talking about, to what
I'm going to talk about and likely what Marco is
going to talk about. I think there's a big correlation.
We saw it last week with Kansas City and Buffalo.
You know, unlike Kansas City in Buffalo, we don't have
(24:34):
a previous game or two.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Like Philadelphia and Washington during the regular.
Speaker 5 (24:40):
Seasons, these two teams have not met, so this will
be the first time now. Yes, I also believe this
is only the second time in Super Bowl history in
which we have a two teams meeting for the second
time within a three year period. And that's exactly what
we have here, as Kansas City was able to barely
(25:01):
get by Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia last time out, but
now They've got another crack at it with most of
the pivotal players still being apart, certainly the coaching staff
as well as the quarterbacks. Here, I love getting Philadelphia
up over a touchdown seven and a half in a teaser,
and I'm very much with Teddy in the total believing
(25:25):
this this will actually, I do think go higher before
it goes lower here, because I do think the public
will absolutely be running to the window to look for
an over given what we just saw here over the
last couple of weeks in the playoffs. But unlike last
year or even a couple of years prior, you know,
the Chiefs don't have a consistent running game. They don't
(25:48):
have that go to back to lean on like the
Eagles do. The Eagles have a great front seven. Teddy
talked about it Vic Fangio in this remade defense, this
is a tough team to be able to run against.
In fact, I think what's gonna have to happen here
is because the Chiefs don't have a consistent running game,
(26:12):
it's gonna require Patrick Mahomes to dink and dunk a
lot in this game here, especially with the Vic Fangio
two high safeties, They're not gonna give up that big
play down the field.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
They're gonna keep everything in front of them.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
I think this correlates to a big time under because,
like Teddy just talked about, I think both of these
teams are gonna be very methodical vic Fangio run defenses.
I believe Mahomes has had a lot of success against
them over the years. Don't forget he was in Denver.
Now of course he's here with Philly. Mahomes has done
(26:47):
a pretty good job, but they've never been these big, wild, crazy,
blowout kinds of games because they're gonna make you have
to beat them in other ways. So I think anything
would patrick Mahomes completions. I think the number was twenty
three and a half is a good look because I
think dink and dunk is coming. I think that correlates
(27:08):
to an under, and you know me, wouldn't be a
hell of a way to finish the year if I
wasn't looking at a first half play here and telling you,
I think the twenty four and a half is a
little much for these two teams. Given the time off
some of these distractions. I don't think the offenses are
going to be as Chris but I also don't think
either of these two teams are going to take any
(27:32):
unnecessary risks early in this game.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
I think we get a bunch of field goals early.
Speaker 5 (27:38):
I think maybe we get a touchdown or two, but
I don't think we're going over twenty four and a
half points in the first half. So I will absolutely
look at the under twenty four and a half in
the first half of this one, and I will tease
not only the Eagles up, but I'll tease the total
down in the same game here cal to finish out
(27:58):
the year.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
And I am on board with that said teaser. Marco.
I watched the same Super Bowl a few years ago
when we first moved into the house here in Florida,
and I have a couple of fans from Kansas that
are actually fans that have been fans our entire life,
so I don't want to discredit them, right. And then
I have some neighbors that are Eagles fans, and boy
are they obnoxious. We made the mistake of watching the
(28:21):
Packers game with them, and I think it's going to
be interesting because last time I was on Kansas City
versus the Eagles, and the Eagles fans left like early
fourth quarter, and this time I think that the inverse
is going to happen. And of course they are going
to be the happy ones and maybe the Chiefs fans
leave early. But I think everybody's gonna hate me if
(28:41):
I bet this under.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
I mean, how boring of this game?
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Is this going to be? Like, I'm now cheering for
defense on both sides. Talk to me about this total.
And if you also like said under.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I do like said under. And I'm going to talk
about what we're seeing with the number right now. I mean,
other than DraftKings, we're talking everybody else is sitting at
the forty nine and a half and it's been sitting there.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
What that tells me?
Speaker 4 (29:07):
You know, when you.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Look at people talk about looking at the lines, reading
the line, moves and so forth. You know, when I
see a number that sits there and doesn't move, Okay,
that tells me I know where the Sharps are going
to end up. They're gonna be on the under. They
haven't made a move yet. Why well, if they're on
the under, they know that this is the biggest game
(29:30):
of the year, it's the heaviest bet game of the year,
and they know that if you line up one hundred
average betters that are aren't considered sharp and tell them
to pick aside. Do you want the over or the under.
They're betting the over because in their gambling mind, they're
never out of the bet. They're still live. You bet
(29:51):
an under. Once it hits that number, you're dead. You
can't watch any more of the game. There's no fun
in that. So they know the smart move for them
is to wait later and closer to game time is
we will see this line bump up. The problem is
it's gonna be a mass rush from the sharps to
(30:11):
grab the number. It's what they think is the highest
point of where it's gonna be to grab the under.
I'm in total agreement on the under. And here's the thing. Everybody,
as Teddy said, saw last week's games. The difference in
last week's games is both teams had good offenses, but
(30:31):
only one team in each game out of an elite defense.
That's the difference. And we saw Philadelphia go up and
down on Washington's defense, and because Washington fell so far behind,
they had to keep throwing the football. Do you remember
how that game started. Washington had a double digit drive.
(30:54):
It plays in the first one that settled in a
field goal, and then they got the quick touchdown Philadelphia
followed by a quick turnover, and all of a sudden,
you're down eleven points, and it changes the whole complexion
of the game. And in the Kansas City Buffalo game,
you're dealing with Josh Allen that you can't stop. I
(31:15):
don't care how good your defense is. He kept taking
them down the field. But the Buffalo defense is not elite.
We've seen how many shootouts they were in. I see
this one as a snail's pace. You look at this
team for Philadelphia and they've held fifteen of its last
sixteen opponents to twenty three points or less. I've looked
(31:38):
at what Philly's done in the playoffs. In the three
playoff games, they've rushed for six hundred and eighty three yards.
That's six and a half yards of carry. They're winning
the time of possession battle by wearing you down with
that offense. And the great thing is when you're trying
to protect the lead and you can run the football.
I say it over and over again, you're doing what
(32:00):
you do best. So often you have a passing team
that when they're trying to protect the lead. They don't
know how to kill the clock, and then it's three
and out and the other team gets the ball back.
That doesn't happen with Philly, so they'll keep the clock moving.
And then to what Joe's analysis was about the dinks
and dunks, Yeah, that's the way Kansas City's going to
(32:20):
have to move the ball. But what happens those are
high percentage plays, there's not a lot of incompletions. The
clock keeps running after every play as you're dinking and dunking,
shortening the game. For me, I'm all over the under
in this one. I agree with it, and that is
the way that I look at this one, first half,
(32:41):
full game, however you want to do it, and I
would be looking at some player props as well, geared
to the unders, because you know there's going to be
several more key players in this game that are going
to have totals that people are not gonna want to
bet the under. And the same rule applies if you're
betting unders with the props bet them On Sunday, my friends, all.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Right, we have a big game special over at wager
talk dot com. All picks until Super Bowl LX that
Super Bowl next year, guys for just eleven ninety nine.
If you buy now, you start now. The sooner you start,
the more you get. You can pick any handicapper you want.
You're gonna get all their plays, every single sport, and
of course all those five percent best bets. Wager talk
(33:24):
dot com. Marco D'Angelo, you have a prop bet for
us as your best bet on the show.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
We do have a prop bet for you, and I'm
gonna take Mahomes under thirty five and a half pass attemps.
And the reason for that is you've heard me in
the segment where we did the total. I think this
game is gonna get shortened. I don't think he's gonna
get as many attempts as he would a many drives
(33:52):
as he will need to get to that thirty five
and a half pass attempts. There's also another prop that
I'm going to tell you that haven't found it yet.
Some of these props will come out later. And one
of the props that I like is the time of
possession prop, and obviously that goes to Philadelphia. In this one,
I think that the Eagles will dominate the game with
(34:13):
their running game and keep Kansas City on the sidelines
for periods, long periods of time, and I look for
them to win the time of possession battle. So for me,
my top prop is Patrick Mahomes under thirty five and
a half pass attempts.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
But as they.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Said, wait till game day to do that and take
advantage of that Super Bowl special. It does include all
of those five percent plays, and we have had a
tremendous year's run on those five percent plays twenty one
and six on our five percent plays at wager Talk,
(34:50):
the last twenty seven after last week's laugher with the
Philadelphia Eagles, So take advantage of that. Just eleven ninety
nine gets you to next year's Super Bowl all place,
and that includes as they said, I alluded to the
road to the Triple Crowns starting up with all of
the three year olds for the Kentucky Derby. We will
(35:10):
have horse racing coverage as well, included on all all
axis clients.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
I love some of those exacted Blox trifectas. Next thing
I know, I've got five hundred dollars on a horse
race I know nothing about, but that's what Marco Dandle's for,
So I don't have to learn how to handicap the ponies.
Joe Ranieri, did you get the invite to golf stream
or are we just so ol here in Florida?
Speaker 4 (35:35):
No, no, no, No.
Speaker 5 (35:36):
It's hard with Marco because I don't know what happens.
My phone doesn't, the text never come through, the phone
never rings. I don't know if I am blocked or
what's going on. But I never seem to get any
of those tips anymore, or invites over to golf Stream.
You have no I can fall out of bed and
be there. But that's all right, Marco. I hope you
ask at sunburned.
Speaker 4 (35:56):
All right? So I will say this.
Speaker 5 (35:58):
Though, Kelly, as long as we're going to go on
the prop market, I do have a couple of props
that I do like one for Kansas City, which I
think we just talked about earlier. I do think that
Dink and Dunk will be in full effect. I love
the Mahomes completions prop over twenty three and a half.
I think he is that's gonna be part of their
running attack here against his Philadelphia front seven. It would
(36:21):
not shock me at all if he has well over
twenty three and a half completions in this one. But
on the Philadelphia side, somebody's got to represent Dan and
Philadelphia here, and I'm gonna go to Dallas Goddard, and
I'm gonna go over his receiving yards prop here. Why
because the Chiefs gave up more yards per game to
(36:42):
opposing tight ends than any team in the league. And
we've also, what do you have seven catches eighty five
yards against the Commanders last week. He's had at least
fifty five yards in three of the last four games.
I think this number is a little low. It was
forty seven and a half. Forty eight and a half.
(37:02):
Don't forget he went for I think sixty yards when
they played a couple of years ago. Listen, they're gonna
have enough this defense with Spags and Phillida, Kansas City
worrying about trying to maybe stock the box a little
bit here and make sure Saquon doesn't burn them. I
think this is gonna be a great opportunity and a
great security blanket for Jalen Hurts to have Goddard there.
(37:24):
I expect them to have plenty of receptions, and I
expect big yards from him, maybe even the one receiver
that has the most yards in the game when it's
all said and done, So I'll look to Dallas Goddard
here over his receiving yards in this one.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Love that I did bet his over four and a
half receptions. Teddy Covers also has a prop bet for us. Teddy,
this one is an interesting one because I'm trying to
figure out how it correlates and if I should join
you or not.
Speaker 7 (37:54):
So I don't know if it correlates at all with anything.
But what am I looking for with props on Super
Bowl Sunday. I'm looking for low hanging fruit. The other
thing I'm looking for is I'm not trying to bet
a little to win a lot. I much rather lay
juice than take these plus prices on Super Bowl Sunday.
And that's something that I've learned through my first twenty
(38:17):
seven Super Bowls here in Las Vegas as being the
quote unquote winning strategy at least for this better. So
what's low hanging fruit right here? How about Johann Dotson
under three and a half receiving yards. Let's see, he
wasn't targeted and didn't get a catch. Last week, he
wasn't targeted and last week, by the way, Jalen Hurts
flew over his passing number. Phillies offense marched up and
(38:39):
down the field, and Dotson was a complete non factor.
Same story in the previous game. No catches, no targets.
He did have one catch in the first playoff game,
but we're not talking about a consistent focal point for
Philadelphia's offense.
Speaker 6 (38:58):
And that's putting it mild.
Speaker 7 (39:00):
And we don't even take him under a half a reception,
all right, we have two choices. You can take him
under over under half a reception, take him over runner
three and a half yards, all right. He can catch
a pass for a yard or two, get tagled a
line of scrimmage and we'll still catch this problem. So again,
I'm not trying to overthink things. We're talking about a
non meaning, a non factor player. And we all know
(39:24):
what happens with Super Bowls on everything gets tilted towards
the over, everything over over over. One wants to bet
for things not to happen. This is one I think
is not gonna happen. Dodson's not going over three and
a half yards and that's my best bet for full So.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
See, I think it correlates. I think it absolutely correlates.
As we all know, I bet the Eagles. Hello, That's
why I have Golden black on Golden Black, green and black.
I am so ready to get to Moorlands till this
damn Super Bowl. It's only Wednesday and I am already
just absolutely done. So Eagles money line is my best bet,
as you guys can see up here. But I did
(40:00):
give some different bets out on a couple of different avenues,
and one that I wanted to share with you guys
is Saquon Barkley MVP here at the hard Rock in Florida.
I just beout at plus two point fifty again because
I do really think it correlates to what Teddy said
as far as the receivers going under, to what Joe said,
as far as the game going goes under, to what
Marco said as far as the game going under, and
(40:21):
of course to what I have to say with Eagles
money line. The games weren't in which success The Eagles
had most success this year was absolutely on the back
of Saquon Barkley. Now, I know a running back has
not won MVP since I was what in middle school
nineteen ninety eight or something crazy, was the last time
a running back on this But I will say this,
(40:42):
Saquon has had his moments, albeit against worse defenses than
the Chiefs. Okay, Chiefs fans, I will give you guys
that against teams name the Cowboys, the Commanders, and so forth.
It is what it is. But I do really like
him to have an absolutely electric game. It has just
been an uphill trajectory and him having those types of
(41:06):
yards in the last few games against the playoffs tells
me that he is the most valuable player on this
Eagle's offense right, And I think he's going to provide
a lot of issues for Steve Magnolo and this Chiefs defense.
I understand that they have had some real upward swings
over the last couple of years because they were sure
(41:27):
they are Achilles heel years ago. But Philadelphia became the
first team in NFL history to rush for seven touchdowns
in a playoff game. You think they're going to bandon
that in the Super Bowl? I think not. I think
Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown holds no value. You guys, is
he going to score a touchdown? Absolutely? So if you
want to throw it in your I don't know your
parlays if you will, if it actually is going to
(41:48):
help you, go for it. But I think if you
like Saquon to have a monster game, putting some money
on the plus two to fifty for him to be
MVP is the way to go. All right, guys, I'm
really sad. Is our last NFL edition of bet on
it first year with Teddy in the books. He didn't
even yell at me one time like he used to
do it press, so that was a win. Any parting words,
(42:11):
you guys would like to say, Marco, are you ready.
Speaker 3 (42:16):
Yet?
Speaker 2 (42:17):
I just want to say to everybody we know this
is the biggest game of the year. Remember it's one game,
don't you know? Bet ridiculous. I know people like to
get carried away, and when you are betting props, you
want to look at your handicap of the game because
obviously that's going to be your correlation. But it is
(42:38):
one game. Don't have forty bets with all you know,
a bunch of props and everything tied to one handicap
and if you're wrong, you have an absolute disastrous day.
Try to diversify your portfolio with a couple of different
thoughts of the ways you things that you could see.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
It can go both ways.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
It doesn't have to be a one sided scenario for you,
and have fun with the game.
Speaker 3 (43:03):
Obviously, the way I play the.
Speaker 2 (43:05):
Super Bowl, my biggest plays are going to be the
game or the total, and then I'll have smaller plays
on the props that I end up doing. But don't
destroy one a good season over one game. That's my
tip for you.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
And Marco has had a great season. Teddy has also
had a really great season. Teddy, any parting words before
we let you guys go.
Speaker 7 (43:27):
So, I guess the most important thing is we're not
going anywhere. We're wager Talk. The show's not on every week. Okay,
we'll be back for what March madness March Madness show
I mean, So it's not like where we're disappearing. And
of course, the many of us do free play videos
each and every day, tons of free content from wager
Talk dot com. Visit our YouTube channel like subscribe. You
(43:50):
guys know the drill, and thank you so much for
joining the being a part of the wayger Talk family.
Speaker 6 (43:57):
Good Luck on Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 1 (43:59):
Cheers, And the guy who is in charge of all
of this, Joe Ranieri, you have the final word.
Speaker 5 (44:05):
Yeah, listen, I just I'm saying a prayer for our
wonderful and fantastic producer Dan because if this game does
not land where I think he wants it to land,
we are going to take applications for a new producer
because he might be in a straight jacket some way
before it's all said and done.
Speaker 4 (44:24):
I'm just saying we might lose Dan after this big.
Speaker 5 (44:27):
Game, cal So we want to make sure that he
has got the proper support when it's all said and down.
Speaker 6 (44:34):
Afterwards.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Yeah, well, after nine days in New Orleans, my liver
might leave me too. So good luck to all of
you guys. Good luck to every single one of you
watched the show. We would not be here without you.
Don't forget to like subscribe, and of course check out
all of our other content on the wager Talk YouTube
channel Saturdays and Sunday's Last Call with Me in the
host chair, of course, wager Talk Today with the Press,
(44:58):
and a slew of other show. Again, if you guys
are looking for Andy's props, we are going to have
a standalone segment for the proptologist himself. Again. Good luck
in the super Bowl, good luck on the rest of
your bets for this week and next, and we'll see
you guys next football season.
Welcome into the last NFL edition of bet on It
for the season. That is, because, of course the Super
Bowl is right around the corner. We wanted to get
to you guys early, as soon as we had some
of our stuff ready to go. We wanted to be
here to give you guys our opinion on the game.
Although we haven't really seen much movement since the opener.
We'll get into that here in a minute. Let's bring
(00:22):
in Marco DiAngelo, Joe Vernieri, and Teddy Covers, and of
course I am Kelly Stewart, your bright green host, and
we'll get to that here in a minute. Guys. Lots
of twos floating around there on the wager Talk or
Odds Logic screen, depending on where you like to view
and shop around, and this one's going to be interesting, guys.
(00:42):
We'll get to the total after we talked to Ralph Michaels,
but first I really want to focus on the side.
This one opened really quickly at a pick him in
a couple spots one and a half, then immediately two.
And I got this at the hard rocket two, thinking,
all right, that is our threshold. Now here were are
no movement, and Mark, I'm gonna go to you first. I, well,
(01:05):
I kind of upset Chiefs Fandom, Kingdom whatever they call
themselves last weekend because I said, hey, listen, it's my
fault for bet against the Chiefs. Granted, I had bills
in a teaser and I had the over, so I
didn't really bet against the Chiefs, but I did think
that there were some interesting things, right. I have some
friends who are not Chiefs fans say you can't bet
(01:25):
against playoff Patty, and other people say, Kelly, you gotta
be on the same side as the refs. Whatever your
conspiracy theory may or may not be, do you think
that there may be is just a little little truth
to some of that.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Marco Well asking somebody that Ben Buffalo if that might
not be a fair answer for me. But yeah, the
dual possession catch that is correct. Whenever two players simultaneously
catch the ball, it goes to the offense. No, I
(01:58):
have no qualms with that. What I you have a
qualm with is that as they came to the ground,
Worthy only had one arm around the ball, his other
hand was on the ground catching his fall, and the
tip of the football did hit the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
To me, it should have been an incomplete pass.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
There was a penalty on the play would have still
given Kansas City a first down, but they would have
been at the twenty instead of at the five to start.
But that's neither here nor there. My problem is with
the fourth down call. You had two guys come in
from opposite sides of the field, one guy north of
the yard to gain and the other guy south of
(02:38):
the yard to gain, and they end up going with
the guy on the south side of it and it's
not a first down. What drives me nuts is the
guy that they went with his spot on the ball
had jo or Josh Allen's back to him. He could
not see where the ball was at as he was
(03:01):
holding it where the guy that put it over the
line of scrimmage was running right at Alan saw where
his ball where the ball was being held, which he
actually was holding it way high up by his neck
as he was going through to make sure he had
the first down.
Speaker 3 (03:16):
That's my problem with it.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
But yes, Kansas City finds a way to win these games,
and give them credit. I just don't like that Allen's
getting so much grief for being zero and four because
he's done nothing wrong. If you look at the two
quarterback stats for that head four game playoff career. They're identical,
absolutely identical, and yet one guy is zero and four.
(03:42):
But Kelly getting to this game. Here's my problem. I
lean to a side, and I'll tell you who that
side is. We are taping on Wednesday, ten or eleven
days ahead of.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
The Super Bowl.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
I have not locked in my official side, but I
am definitely leaning to one side in that site is Philadelphia. However,
I have met against Kansas City in the last two
Super Bowls and I thought I should have won both
of them. Definitely should have won last year's that was
just brutal with the forty nine ers. But I will
point something out, and this is a stat that gives
(04:17):
me a little bit of pause. Teams who score forty
points or more in their conference championship game. Dan, you
better hang up, plug your ears. You don't want to
hear this. They are just three and seven in the
Super Bowl. Okay, straight up. And we saw the Eagles,
which I was very glad, very happy to see because
(04:39):
I had a five percent play on the Eagles last week.
Speaker 3 (04:41):
But they hung up a fifty five and that just a.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Little bit concerned me that you know, maybe just a
little too easy last week. Obviously, the four turnovers were
a big factor. Speaking of turnovers, that's the other thing
that concerns me. You know, I know turnovers are a
product of, yes, luck and good defense, but this stat
(05:05):
is ridiculous. Do you realize Philadelphia has gone five straight
games without a turnover in their last six games, and
I had to double check this, they have a turnover
margin of twenty to two. Okay, that is just absolutely insane.
A credit to defense for a lot of it, but still,
(05:26):
I mean, every fumble that hits the ground, they're falling
on it. The luck is going their way. So that's
a problem for me. A little bit of a concern
is does the luck factor continue? Did they have it
too easy in that championship game against the Washington team
that I felt was in an absolutely horrible spot, fourth
game on the road. I don't care how good this
(05:47):
rookie season has been, You're still a rookie. At some point,
Cinderella strikes the midnight hour, and it did for Washington
last week. I'm leaning to Philly, and I'll give you
more reasons on that when we break down the total
later in the show, Because it kind of all goes
together with it. But right now my official lean is Philadelphia,
(06:09):
and no, I'm not wearing a red jacket because sending
subliminal messages to Kansas City.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
You got a preview of my golf Stream jacket for Saturday.
Speaker 2 (06:19):
I am in Florida at the moment, going to be
going to golf Stream for the Holy Bulls.
Speaker 3 (06:24):
We start to get ready for the road to the
Triple crowd.
Speaker 4 (06:27):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
I'm very jealous. I'm not gonna get to go to
golf Stream. I am wearing this jacket and I don't
have any subliminal messages. Joe Ranieri, put on your tenfoil hat.
Kind of tell me what you think as far as
this game goes. Because last year I was on San Francisco.
I laid the point in a half with that team,
and by all means, it felt great for a better
(06:49):
part of four and a half quarters. And then well
what does Patrick Mahomes do. He does what Patrick Mahomes does,
and he shoved it that ticket right up you know where,
and I proceeded to go to better at the West
Gates super Book. I said I had enough, and you know,
our good friend hen Keem prophet pam Aldonado. Everybody that
was holding a Chiefs ticket got the middle finger for me,
not really, but the Irish goodbye if you will. I said,
(07:12):
all right, I've had enough, And yet here I am,
almost one year later, doing it again.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Yep.
Speaker 5 (07:17):
Yeah, it's like it's like groundhog Day here, Kelly, it
really is. It feels like this because it wasn't that
long ago, or maybe it was that long ago, I
don't know. It all seems to blend in here. But
there came a point in my life where instead of
hating tom Brady and wanting him to lose so bad
(07:41):
that all I would do, Kelly, is every chance in
the big games, in the playoffs, I would try to
bet against him and be like, screw you, tom Brady.
Eventually I think I have to like, oh no, no,
Like the fourth Superbot was like what am I doing? Like,
you might as well just appreciate the greatness while you
can here, So if you can't beat him, you might
(08:01):
as well join them here. And you know, we're gonna
go for almost two decades of Tom Brady to I
don't even know how long we're gonna have to deal
with this with Patrick Mahomes. But it's the same situation here,
is that we're so we were so Tom Brady and
Patriots out, we're getting to the point where we're so
Kansas City and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. We're just like,
(08:24):
come on, enough is enough. But much like last week
when I said, I don't understand what we're doing here,
it's a coin flip game. If I can tease Buffalo
up over a touchdown, I'm good. I don't care who
wins then at that particular point, and I feel we're
exactly in the same spot here cal with Kansas City
(08:46):
and Philadelphia. With being able to get Philadelphia over a
touchdown at seven and a half, I have a pretty
good idea where the total is going in this one.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I'm not opposed at all to.
Speaker 5 (08:59):
Go in the same game teaser way here giving me
Philadelphia at seven and a half, and we'll talk about
the total a little bit later here. But I think
there's a correlation here in a big, big way. Work
last week with Buffalo and Kansas City came down to
a field goal. I ultimately think this game is gonna
(09:19):
come down to a field goal when it's all said
and done. I think The bigger question is gonna be
we know the public is gonna run to the window
late and bet the over. The question is are the
pros going to agree with it or not. I think
I have a pretty good idea where this game is
going now from a defensive perspective, But as far as
I'm concerned, instead of trying to thread a needle here
(09:41):
with the side, I'm just going to use Philadelphia. I'm
gonna I'm gonna tease them up to over seven and
a half and come back with a bet on the total,
and that will be my super Bowl play here.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
All right, we'll get into the totter into a little bit,
but do not disagree Joe Ranieri. That bears excuse me
that Bill Teazer was never in doubt, Not for one
second was I concerned about not catching that ticket in
the over was very easy as well. Teddy covers, I
know you have a five percent play up on the
Super Bowl, so we're not going to get a ton
from you here, But I gotta I gotta know, talk
(10:15):
to me a little bit about your uh, your rationale
when betting the Super Bowl. Give us a little bit
of insight into what you're like, what you like to
look for what we should be avoiding. Little little I'm
trying to think of the right word, little help for
our more recreational betters.
Speaker 6 (10:32):
Sure well, one.
Speaker 7 (10:33):
Thing that I don't like to do in the Super
Bowl is lay a lot of points. In fact, I've
made a rule, and you know rules are made to
be broken. This is rule I followed every year since
I made it, and that's I'm not laying more than
a field goal with anyone in a Super Bowl. If
I'm laying it better be a short favorite, because the
teams have proven to be very, very even. Of course,
(10:53):
this is a game in which the rule doesn't come
into play because nobody's laying more than a field goal,
not now, not a week from now, not five minutes
for a kickoff. This line's not getting a three. I
don't think it's getting a two again. All right, one
and a half. Paste it on the way you talk
live odd screen right now, an area two to be found.
Same thing with the odds logic live Odds screen, which
we'll talk about in a minute. But it's all one
(11:15):
and a half. That's the line for the Super Bowl
in this one, and I won each to the last
three years with my side play last year he had
a teaser side. In total, we won the previous two years,
one with Kansas City minus one with the Cincinnati plus.
Speaker 6 (11:29):
Maybe it was Kansas. I think it was Case.
Speaker 7 (11:31):
Plus actually in Cincinnati plus. But three straight winners, and
this is one. You know, there are years where Super
Bowl Sunday is rapidly approaching and I'm sitting there sweating,
you know, what am I gonna do? What am I
gonna play? Going back and forth. This is not one
of those years. This is the year where on Sunday night,
(11:51):
when the Super Bowl line came out, I'm like, I
know who I'm on and it's a strong opinion, and
I'm like, let's load up five percent ticket available right
now on pagebt dot buzz Backslash TC for Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 6 (12:05):
We will, of course talk props and totals before all.
Speaker 7 (12:08):
Is said and done, but this is one that jumped
off the page at me call, and when they're jumping
off the page at me, I'm interested.
Speaker 1 (12:15):
So no hesitation for me on Sunday night.
Speaker 3 (12:18):
Yeah, I love it.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
No hesitation, just just both of us. We just went
straight to the window to place our wagers. That that
is really great confidence. I love that.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
Yeah, So, I mean the five percents have been fantastic.
You know, across sports, every sport that I do, the
five percents have made money. They're well over sixty percent
long term, I think twelve and five seventy percent since
September with the five percent, the NFL five percents have
been great. So I can get it right now on
my pagebt dot Buzz, Backslash, TC, but not hype.
Speaker 6 (12:48):
Let's give you guys some total info before all said done,
and some props as well.
Speaker 3 (12:52):
Love it.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Teddy's also been doing very well in the NBA, so
he's going to be joining us on last Call to
discuss that as well. You guys also know who joins
us on last call. Arn't just Caesar and of course
VR joins us every single Saturday and Sunday, but both
of them are out for this week. It is an
early show. They said, hey, we're gonna pump the brakes
bring you some later information, so we're gonna go right
(13:14):
into it. Time for some TNA with Ralph Michaels. It's
time for the guy with all the guides, including your
super Bowl guide at wager talk dot com. Ralph Michaels TNA,
I heard you off screen. We've got one that I
think I'm really gonna like.
Speaker 8 (13:33):
Yeah, you know, and there's not many, Kelly, It's the
Super Bowl. We're talking one game, you know what I mean.
So when I go through these angles, you're not going
to change the way you bet, but at least you're
informed on what's happened, so you know. Before we talk
about the wager Talk prop guide, let me just go
through some Super Bowl numbers so you have them. The favorite,
of course, oh and three. The last three years, the
underdog has gone two and one straight up, but three
(13:57):
and zero against the spread.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
The favors are three and three.
Speaker 8 (14:01):
The last six years, but if you go all the
way back to two thousand and seven, underdogs in the
Super Bowl eleven and six against the spread.
Speaker 3 (14:09):
As far as totals go, last year was a push.
Speaker 8 (14:12):
The year before over In the last six years, though,
there were four straight unders.
Speaker 3 (14:16):
So in the last six years.
Speaker 8 (14:17):
The over under is one four and one one over
four unders, and the push teams that got out gained
at home in the conference championship like Kansas City did,
are one in.
Speaker 3 (14:31):
Five against the spread.
Speaker 8 (14:32):
Since twenty ten, but then I also have a one
in four trend for Philadelphia. Teams that scored forty points
or more in their conference championship are one and four
against the spread since two thousand and two. And if
both teams went over in the conference championships like Case
and Philadelphia did, the over unders actually three and six
(14:56):
since two thousand and two and kel This one shocked me.
I had to run this three times, and then I
had to manually go through each year to make sure
it was accurate.
Speaker 3 (15:07):
I figured there was something wrong.
Speaker 8 (15:10):
The team that had a first round by, like Kansas City,
playing an opponent that did not have a first round by.
Since two thousand and three, it's occurred ten times. The
team that had a first round by oh and ten
against the spread. The team that had a first round
by is also one and eight straight up, and the
(15:33):
only team that won with a first round by was
back in two thousand and nine, the Steelers beat the
Cardinals but did not cover, and that was on a
last second touchdown. I mean, can you imagine that? It's
almost on an h to nine straight up in eights streak?
So never ran that angle before. I'm shocked at the results.
We'll see what plays out this year. So you know,
(15:55):
I have a few props to go over. But let's
talk about the prop guide call and it is. I
love doing it. It teaches you a lot. It shows
you some of the past history. And there's about thirty
five props over the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
What occurred? Did they go over, did they go under,
did they win? Did they lose?
Speaker 8 (16:17):
And then I also have the last six years team stats,
so at an easy glance, you can read how many
first downs the team had, how many third down conversions,
how many fourth downs, so you can see the history
of that. Then I have individual player stats the last
six years, and then a fun thing, I show exactly
what each combination of squares were so you could see
(16:40):
if you're a square, ever had one before, how many
opportunities it's occurred. So the guide absolutely free on my homepage,
WT Buzz backslash RM and I just want to quickly
share four things from the guide that you can take
out of it. The team to score last in the
Super Bowl, will they win the game?
Speaker 3 (17:02):
Yes or no? Kelly?
Speaker 8 (17:05):
The Super Bowl goes back the last fifteen years. On
I prop sheet, that prop is fifteen to zero. And
in fact it goes back three more years, it has
cashed eighteen straight times. The team to score last in
the game won the game eighteen straight is amazing. But
I will say this, about two years ago it was
minus one fifty five, minus one sixty. The early number
(17:28):
I saw this year was juiced all the way to
minus two to twenty. So I'm going to blame the
Way to Talk Super Bowl prop Guide the last few
years that pointed that out that these casinos really aren't
juicing it that much. Team to score in the first
six minutes of the game, I've only scored one time
the last eight years, seven knows. So if you bet
(17:52):
no score in the first six minutes of the game,
you are seven and one the last eight years and
eleven and four of the last fifteen years.
Speaker 3 (18:01):
Will there be a score the last two minutes of
the second half?
Speaker 8 (18:06):
Yes is three and zero, and yes is six and
three the last nine years. And longest TD under forty
eight yards the under has cashed back to back years,
and the under is six and one the last seven years.
One more I'll share for you as well. The shortest
(18:27):
TV under a yard and a half. People think, oh,
that's pretty hard to get to there's so many one
yard touchdowns because of pass interference or the tush push
for Philadelphia, the shortest TV under one and a half
yards has cashed six times and lost twice.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
So again, download the prop sheet.
Speaker 8 (18:43):
There's about thirty props there for you to take a
look at, and it'll help you become an informed better
when you're having fun with these Super Bowl props.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
What a guide. I just downloaded it, WT dot buzz
backslash RM. It is completely free. Ralph does a lot
of free stuff there over on his homepage. We appreciate
him at CALA Sports LV. You guys are following him
on x I'm sure he's got some little tidbits coming
up over there, as well as the wager talk, TikTok
and Instagram pages. Thank you, Ralph, and happy betting. Let's
(19:13):
bring it back to the guys and get these glasses
off before I get a headache and talk some totals.
You guys may have recognized that I did not mention
the proptologists.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
Well.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
In fact, Andy and I have decided that as soon
as the Westgate super Books prop packet comes out late
Thursday night, we're gonna get to work Friday morning, we're
gonna film a special standalone episode of bet On It Extra,
if you want to call it with Andy Lang. We're
gonna go through all of his favorite props and of
course get you guys some the best of your information.
(19:46):
Ralph already gave us a ton, which was wonderful. Now
we're gonna bring the guys back. Of course, let's get
into that Super Bowl total. You know, Teddy mentioned this
one had not moved a ton as far as what
we saw from the last couple of days. Right now
on the wager Talk odd screen, we're seeing this one
pretty much across the board, and no books are really
(20:10):
making big moves here on what day is it? January
twenty ninth, twenty twenty five, forty nine and a halfs
There is a couple of forty nine's and then our
good friends over at Draftings the only one forty eight
and a half. This one's going to be interesting because
you'd think a book like that, Teddy would want to
get ahead of it. Most of their audience is going
(20:30):
to bet the over, right, So yes.
Speaker 7 (20:33):
Most of the Draftings audience is likely to bet the over,
but in terms of their odds making and their line
making capabilities. They're a book that how do we phrase
this politely, I'm not going to strive. That's why there's
stock price as well. All right, that's I'll just leave
it at that. Sometimes the issues with putting up the
(20:56):
appropriate number at the right time. And I'm not worried
about what one book is versus another book versus another book.
Speaker 6 (21:01):
Total here, forty nine is last forty nine and a half.
Speaker 7 (21:03):
If DK has an outlier line by a and it's
forty eight and a half minus one fifteen to the
over right now as we speak, So it's.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Not even that much of an outlier line.
Speaker 7 (21:12):
Now, everyone remembers last week what we see, two shootouts,
both games flying over the total. Everyone remembers last time
these two teams met in February, shootout, thirty eight to
thirty five, flying over the total. I'm not expecting more
of the same. I'm really not. First, we're talking about
(21:33):
two elite defenses. Philadelphia number one in the NBA, in
the NBA, in the NFL, Phillies number one in the
NFL yards per play allowed this season.
Speaker 6 (21:44):
What have we seen in the postseason?
Speaker 7 (21:46):
Their defense has absolutely lived up to the hype, and
they lived up to the stats, and that's why they're here.
Speaker 6 (21:51):
Now, we took at Kansas City.
Speaker 7 (21:54):
Their yards per play numbers not quite as off the
charts good as Philadelphia. Nonetheless, we're talking about a two
time one of each the last two Super Bowls. They've
dominated here in the postseason when not facing Josh Allen,
and we know how good Kansas City's defense has been.
Speaker 6 (22:09):
It's been elite.
Speaker 7 (22:10):
That's why they are two time defending champs, every bit
as much as Patrick Mahomes and company.
Speaker 6 (22:15):
So we're talking about two elite defenses. We're also talking
about two teams that are.
Speaker 7 (22:21):
Very very comfortable, slow, methodical drives, killing clock, grinding first downs.
It's not about big plays for Philly. Yeah, they gotten
a bunch of big plays in the running game here
in the postseason and throughout the regular season. I'm not
convinced those big players are going to be there against
Kansas City's defense. We think about Patrick Mahomes, we think
about him firing downfield. We think about Tyreek Hill making
(22:43):
that great catch last time the squadron the Super Bowl.
Not this year, not this team. Dinkin and Duncan, long
slow drives, two elite defenses and a total that is
a little bit inflated, and everyone remembers all the overs.
Speaker 6 (23:00):
All the way I can look here is under.
Speaker 7 (23:01):
All right, It's not a debate in my mind as
to which way I want to go with this total,
under or pass for this better and let's root against overtime.
Speaker 6 (23:12):
If you have the under this year, Oh.
Speaker 1 (23:14):
Boy, overtime already making me nauseous with my Eagles money line.
Bet there, Teddy, Joe Vernira, you mentioned that you like
the Eagles and the teaser. Here's the problem. Not everybody
has the ability to do an open teaser. And then, oh,
by the way, football season's over, so then what do
you start doing Teasing it with a national championship? In
college basketball, it gets a little dicey right now. With
(23:36):
the Bills last week, it was easy because I had
already teased them with Ohio State. The next night after
as soon as the game ended versus the Ravens, I
teas him with Ohio State. So I had him in there,
locked and loaded. A little non traditional. But now here's
a standalone are we looking at teasing it with the total?
I agree with Teddy. I leaned towards the under in
this one. Should we be teasing the total on fifty
(23:58):
four and a half is the is the under pretty
much if you have forty eight and a half on
your screen. So talk to me about a non traditional
teaser here in regards to the total, or if you
actually like a play on the total itself.
Speaker 4 (24:12):
Well I do it.
Speaker 5 (24:13):
There's a couple of things I like in it's because
I think there's a whole lot of props that correlate
to exactly what Teddy was just talking about, to what
I'm going to talk about and likely what Marco is
going to talk about. I think there's a big correlation.
We saw it last week with Kansas City and Buffalo.
You know, unlike Kansas City in Buffalo, we don't have
(24:34):
a previous game or two.
Speaker 4 (24:37):
Like Philadelphia and Washington during the regular.
Speaker 5 (24:40):
Seasons, these two teams have not met, so this will
be the first time now. Yes, I also believe this
is only the second time in Super Bowl history in
which we have a two teams meeting for the second
time within a three year period. And that's exactly what
we have here, as Kansas City was able to barely
(25:01):
get by Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia last time out, but
now They've got another crack at it with most of
the pivotal players still being apart, certainly the coaching staff
as well as the quarterbacks. Here, I love getting Philadelphia
up over a touchdown seven and a half in a teaser,
and I'm very much with Teddy in the total believing
(25:25):
this this will actually, I do think go higher before
it goes lower here, because I do think the public
will absolutely be running to the window to look for
an over given what we just saw here over the
last couple of weeks in the playoffs. But unlike last
year or even a couple of years prior, you know,
the Chiefs don't have a consistent running game. They don't
(25:48):
have that go to back to lean on like the
Eagles do. The Eagles have a great front seven. Teddy
talked about it Vic Fangio in this remade defense, this
is a tough team to be able to run against.
In fact, I think what's gonna have to happen here
is because the Chiefs don't have a consistent running game,
(26:12):
it's gonna require Patrick Mahomes to dink and dunk a
lot in this game here, especially with the Vic Fangio
two high safeties, They're not gonna give up that big
play down the field.
Speaker 4 (26:24):
They're gonna keep everything in front of them.
Speaker 5 (26:27):
I think this correlates to a big time under because,
like Teddy just talked about, I think both of these
teams are gonna be very methodical vic Fangio run defenses.
I believe Mahomes has had a lot of success against
them over the years. Don't forget he was in Denver.
Now of course he's here with Philly. Mahomes has done
(26:47):
a pretty good job, but they've never been these big, wild, crazy,
blowout kinds of games because they're gonna make you have
to beat them in other ways. So I think anything
would patrick Mahomes completions. I think the number was twenty
three and a half is a good look because I
think dink and dunk is coming. I think that correlates
(27:08):
to an under, and you know me, wouldn't be a
hell of a way to finish the year if I
wasn't looking at a first half play here and telling you,
I think the twenty four and a half is a
little much for these two teams. Given the time off
some of these distractions. I don't think the offenses are
going to be as Chris but I also don't think
either of these two teams are going to take any
(27:32):
unnecessary risks early in this game.
Speaker 4 (27:35):
I think we get a bunch of field goals early.
Speaker 5 (27:38):
I think maybe we get a touchdown or two, but
I don't think we're going over twenty four and a
half points in the first half. So I will absolutely
look at the under twenty four and a half in
the first half of this one, and I will tease
not only the Eagles up, but I'll tease the total
down in the same game here cal to finish out
(27:58):
the year.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
And I am on board with that said teaser. Marco.
I watched the same Super Bowl a few years ago
when we first moved into the house here in Florida,
and I have a couple of fans from Kansas that
are actually fans that have been fans our entire life,
so I don't want to discredit them, right. And then
I have some neighbors that are Eagles fans, and boy
are they obnoxious. We made the mistake of watching the
(28:21):
Packers game with them, and I think it's going to
be interesting because last time I was on Kansas City
versus the Eagles, and the Eagles fans left like early
fourth quarter, and this time I think that the inverse
is going to happen. And of course they are going
to be the happy ones and maybe the Chiefs fans
leave early. But I think everybody's gonna hate me if
(28:41):
I bet this under.
Speaker 4 (28:43):
I mean, how boring of this game?
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Is this going to be? Like, I'm now cheering for
defense on both sides. Talk to me about this total.
And if you also like said under.
Speaker 2 (28:54):
I do like said under. And I'm going to talk
about what we're seeing with the number right now. I mean,
other than DraftKings, we're talking everybody else is sitting at
the forty nine and a half and it's been sitting there.
Speaker 3 (29:05):
What that tells me?
Speaker 4 (29:07):
You know, when you.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
Look at people talk about looking at the lines, reading
the line, moves and so forth. You know, when I
see a number that sits there and doesn't move, Okay,
that tells me I know where the Sharps are going
to end up. They're gonna be on the under. They
haven't made a move yet. Why well, if they're on
the under, they know that this is the biggest game
(29:30):
of the year, it's the heaviest bet game of the year,
and they know that if you line up one hundred
average betters that are aren't considered sharp and tell them
to pick aside. Do you want the over or the under.
They're betting the over because in their gambling mind, they're
never out of the bet. They're still live. You bet
(29:51):
an under. Once it hits that number, you're dead. You
can't watch any more of the game. There's no fun
in that. So they know the smart move for them
is to wait later and closer to game time is
we will see this line bump up. The problem is
it's gonna be a mass rush from the sharps to
(30:11):
grab the number. It's what they think is the highest
point of where it's gonna be to grab the under.
I'm in total agreement on the under. And here's the thing. Everybody,
as Teddy said, saw last week's games. The difference in
last week's games is both teams had good offenses, but
(30:31):
only one team in each game out of an elite defense.
That's the difference. And we saw Philadelphia go up and
down on Washington's defense, and because Washington fell so far behind,
they had to keep throwing the football. Do you remember
how that game started. Washington had a double digit drive.
(30:54):
It plays in the first one that settled in a
field goal, and then they got the quick touchdown Philadelphia
followed by a quick turnover, and all of a sudden,
you're down eleven points, and it changes the whole complexion
of the game. And in the Kansas City Buffalo game,
you're dealing with Josh Allen that you can't stop. I
(31:15):
don't care how good your defense is. He kept taking
them down the field. But the Buffalo defense is not elite.
We've seen how many shootouts they were in. I see
this one as a snail's pace. You look at this
team for Philadelphia and they've held fifteen of its last
sixteen opponents to twenty three points or less. I've looked
(31:38):
at what Philly's done in the playoffs. In the three
playoff games, they've rushed for six hundred and eighty three yards.
That's six and a half yards of carry. They're winning
the time of possession battle by wearing you down with
that offense. And the great thing is when you're trying
to protect the lead and you can run the football.
I say it over and over again, you're doing what
(32:00):
you do best. So often you have a passing team
that when they're trying to protect the lead. They don't
know how to kill the clock, and then it's three
and out and the other team gets the ball back.
That doesn't happen with Philly, so they'll keep the clock moving.
And then to what Joe's analysis was about the dinks
and dunks, Yeah, that's the way Kansas City's going to
(32:20):
have to move the ball. But what happens those are
high percentage plays, there's not a lot of incompletions. The
clock keeps running after every play as you're dinking and dunking,
shortening the game. For me, I'm all over the under
in this one. I agree with it, and that is
the way that I look at this one, first half,
(32:41):
full game, however you want to do it, and I
would be looking at some player props as well, geared
to the unders, because you know there's going to be
several more key players in this game that are going
to have totals that people are not gonna want to
bet the under. And the same rule applies if you're
betting unders with the props bet them On Sunday, my friends, all.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Right, we have a big game special over at wager
talk dot com. All picks until Super Bowl LX that
Super Bowl next year, guys for just eleven ninety nine.
If you buy now, you start now. The sooner you start,
the more you get. You can pick any handicapper you want.
You're gonna get all their plays, every single sport, and
of course all those five percent best bets. Wager talk
(33:24):
dot com. Marco D'Angelo, you have a prop bet for
us as your best bet on the show.
Speaker 2 (33:31):
We do have a prop bet for you, and I'm
gonna take Mahomes under thirty five and a half pass attemps.
And the reason for that is you've heard me in
the segment where we did the total. I think this
game is gonna get shortened. I don't think he's gonna
get as many attempts as he would a many drives
(33:52):
as he will need to get to that thirty five
and a half pass attempts. There's also another prop that
I'm going to tell you that haven't found it yet.
Some of these props will come out later. And one
of the props that I like is the time of
possession prop, and obviously that goes to Philadelphia. In this one,
I think that the Eagles will dominate the game with
(34:13):
their running game and keep Kansas City on the sidelines
for periods, long periods of time, and I look for
them to win the time of possession battle. So for me,
my top prop is Patrick Mahomes under thirty five and
a half pass attempts.
Speaker 3 (34:30):
But as they.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Said, wait till game day to do that and take
advantage of that Super Bowl special. It does include all
of those five percent plays, and we have had a
tremendous year's run on those five percent plays twenty one
and six on our five percent plays at wager Talk,
(34:50):
the last twenty seven after last week's laugher with the
Philadelphia Eagles, So take advantage of that. Just eleven ninety
nine gets you to next year's Super Bowl all place,
and that includes as they said, I alluded to the
road to the Triple Crowns starting up with all of
the three year olds for the Kentucky Derby. We will
(35:10):
have horse racing coverage as well, included on all all
axis clients.
Speaker 1 (35:17):
I love some of those exacted Blox trifectas. Next thing
I know, I've got five hundred dollars on a horse
race I know nothing about, but that's what Marco Dandle's for,
So I don't have to learn how to handicap the ponies.
Joe Ranieri, did you get the invite to golf stream
or are we just so ol here in Florida?
Speaker 4 (35:35):
No, no, no, No.
Speaker 5 (35:36):
It's hard with Marco because I don't know what happens.
My phone doesn't, the text never come through, the phone
never rings. I don't know if I am blocked or
what's going on. But I never seem to get any
of those tips anymore, or invites over to golf Stream.
You have no I can fall out of bed and
be there. But that's all right, Marco. I hope you
ask at sunburned.
Speaker 4 (35:56):
All right? So I will say this.
Speaker 5 (35:58):
Though, Kelly, as long as we're going to go on
the prop market, I do have a couple of props
that I do like one for Kansas City, which I
think we just talked about earlier. I do think that
Dink and Dunk will be in full effect. I love
the Mahomes completions prop over twenty three and a half.
I think he is that's gonna be part of their
running attack here against his Philadelphia front seven. It would
(36:21):
not shock me at all if he has well over
twenty three and a half completions in this one. But
on the Philadelphia side, somebody's got to represent Dan and
Philadelphia here, and I'm gonna go to Dallas Goddard, and
I'm gonna go over his receiving yards prop here. Why
because the Chiefs gave up more yards per game to
(36:42):
opposing tight ends than any team in the league. And
we've also, what do you have seven catches eighty five
yards against the Commanders last week. He's had at least
fifty five yards in three of the last four games.
I think this number is a little low. It was
forty seven and a half. Forty eight and a half.
(37:02):
Don't forget he went for I think sixty yards when
they played a couple of years ago. Listen, they're gonna
have enough this defense with Spags and Phillida, Kansas City
worrying about trying to maybe stock the box a little
bit here and make sure Saquon doesn't burn them. I
think this is gonna be a great opportunity and a
great security blanket for Jalen Hurts to have Goddard there.
(37:24):
I expect them to have plenty of receptions, and I
expect big yards from him, maybe even the one receiver
that has the most yards in the game when it's
all said and done, So I'll look to Dallas Goddard
here over his receiving yards in this one.
Speaker 1 (37:41):
Love that I did bet his over four and a
half receptions. Teddy Covers also has a prop bet for us. Teddy,
this one is an interesting one because I'm trying to
figure out how it correlates and if I should join
you or not.
Speaker 7 (37:54):
So I don't know if it correlates at all with anything.
But what am I looking for with props on Super
Bowl Sunday. I'm looking for low hanging fruit. The other
thing I'm looking for is I'm not trying to bet
a little to win a lot. I much rather lay
juice than take these plus prices on Super Bowl Sunday.
And that's something that I've learned through my first twenty
(38:17):
seven Super Bowls here in Las Vegas as being the
quote unquote winning strategy at least for this better. So
what's low hanging fruit right here? How about Johann Dotson
under three and a half receiving yards. Let's see, he
wasn't targeted and didn't get a catch. Last week, he
wasn't targeted and last week, by the way, Jalen Hurts
flew over his passing number. Phillies offense marched up and
(38:39):
down the field, and Dotson was a complete non factor.
Same story in the previous game. No catches, no targets.
He did have one catch in the first playoff game,
but we're not talking about a consistent focal point for
Philadelphia's offense.
Speaker 6 (38:58):
And that's putting it mild.
Speaker 7 (39:00):
And we don't even take him under a half a reception,
all right, we have two choices. You can take him
under over under half a reception, take him over runner
three and a half yards, all right. He can catch
a pass for a yard or two, get tagled a
line of scrimmage and we'll still catch this problem. So again,
I'm not trying to overthink things. We're talking about a
non meaning, a non factor player. And we all know
(39:24):
what happens with Super Bowls on everything gets tilted towards
the over, everything over over over. One wants to bet
for things not to happen. This is one I think
is not gonna happen. Dodson's not going over three and
a half yards and that's my best bet for full So.
Speaker 1 (39:38):
See, I think it correlates. I think it absolutely correlates.
As we all know, I bet the Eagles. Hello, That's
why I have Golden black on Golden Black, green and black.
I am so ready to get to Moorlands till this
damn Super Bowl. It's only Wednesday and I am already
just absolutely done. So Eagles money line is my best bet,
as you guys can see up here. But I did
(40:00):
give some different bets out on a couple of different avenues,
and one that I wanted to share with you guys
is Saquon Barkley MVP here at the hard Rock in Florida.
I just beout at plus two point fifty again because
I do really think it correlates to what Teddy said
as far as the receivers going under, to what Joe said,
as far as the game going goes under, to what
Marco said as far as the game going under, and
(40:21):
of course to what I have to say with Eagles
money line. The games weren't in which success The Eagles
had most success this year was absolutely on the back
of Saquon Barkley. Now, I know a running back has
not won MVP since I was what in middle school
nineteen ninety eight or something crazy, was the last time
a running back on this But I will say this,
(40:42):
Saquon has had his moments, albeit against worse defenses than
the Chiefs. Okay, Chiefs fans, I will give you guys
that against teams name the Cowboys, the Commanders, and so forth.
It is what it is. But I do really like
him to have an absolutely electric game. It has just
been an uphill trajectory and him having those types of
(41:06):
yards in the last few games against the playoffs tells
me that he is the most valuable player on this
Eagle's offense right, And I think he's going to provide
a lot of issues for Steve Magnolo and this Chiefs defense.
I understand that they have had some real upward swings
over the last couple of years because they were sure
(41:27):
they are Achilles heel years ago. But Philadelphia became the
first team in NFL history to rush for seven touchdowns
in a playoff game. You think they're going to bandon
that in the Super Bowl? I think not. I think
Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown holds no value. You guys, is
he going to score a touchdown? Absolutely? So if you
want to throw it in your I don't know your
parlays if you will, if it actually is going to
(41:48):
help you, go for it. But I think if you
like Saquon to have a monster game, putting some money
on the plus two to fifty for him to be
MVP is the way to go. All right, guys, I'm
really sad. Is our last NFL edition of bet on
it first year with Teddy in the books. He didn't
even yell at me one time like he used to
do it press, so that was a win. Any parting words,
(42:11):
you guys would like to say, Marco, are you ready.
Speaker 3 (42:16):
Yet?
Speaker 2 (42:17):
I just want to say to everybody we know this
is the biggest game of the year. Remember it's one game,
don't you know? Bet ridiculous. I know people like to
get carried away, and when you are betting props, you
want to look at your handicap of the game because
obviously that's going to be your correlation. But it is
(42:38):
one game. Don't have forty bets with all you know,
a bunch of props and everything tied to one handicap
and if you're wrong, you have an absolute disastrous day.
Try to diversify your portfolio with a couple of different
thoughts of the ways you things that you could see.
Speaker 3 (42:57):
It can go both ways.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
It doesn't have to be a one sided scenario for you,
and have fun with the game.
Speaker 3 (43:03):
Obviously, the way I play the.
Speaker 2 (43:05):
Super Bowl, my biggest plays are going to be the
game or the total, and then I'll have smaller plays
on the props that I end up doing. But don't
destroy one a good season over one game. That's my
tip for you.
Speaker 1 (43:20):
And Marco has had a great season. Teddy has also
had a really great season. Teddy, any parting words before
we let you guys go.
Speaker 7 (43:27):
So, I guess the most important thing is we're not
going anywhere. We're wager Talk. The show's not on every week. Okay,
we'll be back for what March madness March Madness show
I mean, So it's not like where we're disappearing. And
of course, the many of us do free play videos
each and every day, tons of free content from wager
Talk dot com. Visit our YouTube channel like subscribe. You
(43:50):
guys know the drill, and thank you so much for
joining the being a part of the wayger Talk family.
Speaker 6 (43:57):
Good Luck on Super Bowl Sunday.
Speaker 1 (43:59):
Cheers, And the guy who is in charge of all
of this, Joe Ranieri, you have the final word.
Speaker 5 (44:05):
Yeah, listen, I just I'm saying a prayer for our
wonderful and fantastic producer Dan because if this game does
not land where I think he wants it to land,
we are going to take applications for a new producer
because he might be in a straight jacket some way
before it's all said and done.
Speaker 4 (44:24):
I'm just saying we might lose Dan after this big.
Speaker 5 (44:27):
Game, cal So we want to make sure that he
has got the proper support when it's all said and down.
Speaker 6 (44:34):
Afterwards.
Speaker 1 (44:35):
Yeah, well, after nine days in New Orleans, my liver
might leave me too. So good luck to all of
you guys. Good luck to every single one of you
watched the show. We would not be here without you.
Don't forget to like subscribe, and of course check out
all of our other content on the wager Talk YouTube
channel Saturdays and Sunday's Last Call with Me in the
host chair, of course, wager Talk Today with the Press,
(44:58):
and a slew of other show. Again, if you guys
are looking for Andy's props, we are going to have
a standalone segment for the proptologist himself. Again. Good luck
in the super Bowl, good luck on the rest of
your bets for this week and next, and we'll see
you guys next football season.
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