August 8, 2025 • 24 mins
Provides an engineer's perspective on power generation, covering historical and scientific aspects without delving into politics. It examines various energy sources, from fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas to renewables such as hydropower, wind, and solar, as well as nuclear fission and fusion. The text explores energy conversion principles, the dynamics of electrical grids, and the economic and environmental impacts of different power technologies, offering comparative analyses of their efficiencies, costs, and societal implications.
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You can listen and download our episodes for free on more than 10 different platforms:
https://linktr.ee/book_shelter
Get the Book now from Amazon:
https://www.amazon.com/Lights-Science-Generation-Mark-Denny-ebook/dp/B07DFND6PP?&linkCode=ll1&tag=cvthunderx-20&linkId=134907ec30502f5e4700c16497c4af02&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome curious minds to the deep dive. Today we're embarking
on really an extraordinary journey into something fundamental, power generation.
We're using Lights on the Science of Power of Regeneration
by Mark Denny as our guide, our mission to unpack
humanity's whole quest for energy from basics to breakthroughs, purely
through science and engineering.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
No politics here exactly, and it's not just a textbook.
Denny tells a story, really a story of ingenuity, challenges
and the physics behind it all. We're looking at the
what and why of our energy story, past, present and future,
and there are some really surprising facts in there.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
It's a whole narrative of how we power our world.
So let's keep the lights on, as they say, and
dive in. Okay, let's get started before jumping into the
big machines. The book lays some groundwork. What exactly are
energy and power? Right?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
The fundamentals. Energy simply put, is the ability to do work.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Like water turning a millstone, or gasoline moving.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
A car precisely, and power is the rate you do
that work, how fast the energy is used or converted.
Energy comes in different flavors, you know, Kinetic is motion,
a train, a spinning flywheel. Potential energy is stored, could
be positioned like a raised rock, or chemical bonds in fuel,
or even a compressed spring and heat.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
The book calls it the lowest form.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Yeah, sort of the common currency. Almost all other forms
can degrade into heat. Think of a meteor. All that
kinetic and potential energy just becomes intense heat in the atmosphere.
It's still kinetic energy, just at the molecular level.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Okay, So energy converts between forms, like in a hydro
dam exactly.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Water behind the dam has gravitational potential energy, it flows down.
That's kinetic energy. Spins a turbine rotational kinetic energy, which
drives a generator, making electrical energy.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
But never perfectly right.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
There's always loss, always some loss, Yeah, usually as heat.
That's just thermodynamics. Inefficiency is baked in.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Got it. What about the scale of power? The book
gives some mind bending numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Oh yeah, humanity consumes somewhere between fourteen and twenty tarrawats
on average. That's trillions of watts continuously.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Wow, compared to.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
What well, your electric kettle might use a couple of
kilowatts Niagara falls on average. It's expending about one point
three gigawats and lightning.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
I remember seeing a huge number.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
For that, right, A single bolt can peak at four tarrawats,
absolutely immense power.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So quick question then, if lightning is that powerful, why
don't we harness it?
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Huh? Good question. It's incredibly brief, unpredictable, and hard to capture.
But it also highlights why electricity is so useful for distribution.
It's fast, near light speed, and a cable and compact
much much easier to move around than say, cartloads of
coal or trying to pipe heat somewhere before it leaks away.
(02:45):
Electricity is just incredibly convenient convenience.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Right, yeah, that makes sense. And the book talks about
transducers for converting energy yep.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Any device that changes energy from one form to another,
and their efficiencies very wildly. Like the old incandition light
bulb terrible, maybe five percent efficient at making light, most
of the energy just becomes heat.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Fluorescent is better, LEDs even more.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
So, right soloressa maybe twenty percent. LEDs can hit thirty
five percent. Solar panels, though, are surprisingly low if you
consider the whole plant's land use. The book mentions less
than one percent conversion of incoming sunlight to electricity.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
But an electric heater is efficient.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Over ninety five percent because heat is what you want,
So efficiency really depends on the goal.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Okay, so we generate power, we convert it, but then
there's the grid balancing. It sounds like a nightmare. Demand
is always changing.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Constantly, daily cycles, seasonal shifts, even minute to minute spikes
and dips. It's a huge dynamic challenge.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
And if you don't balance it blackouts.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
If supply doesn't match demand precisely, the system frequency goes off,
generators trip offline, and things can cascade very quickly. You
need ways to smooth things out.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Which brings us to energy storage.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Exactly essential for managing those fluctuations.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What are the main options? The book mentions capacitors, but
says they're not really for large scale right.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
They store energy electrically but don't hold very much for
their size or weight. Good for quick bursts, not for
powering a city. The book even uses a thundercloud as
a quirky natural example.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
So batteries are more practical definitely.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
You've got your disposable ones alkaline, lithium, and rechargeables like
lithium ion, lead, acid, rechargeables are key. Obviously they can
handle hundreds, maybe thousands of cycles, but they do self
discharge and deep cycling shortens their life, plus disposal can
be an issue. Still crucial technology.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
What about bigger scale pumped hydro seems important.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Hugely important. Simple concept. Use cheap off peak power to
pump water uphill into a reservoir. Then when demand peaks,
let the water flow back down through turbines to generate electricity.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
And it's quick to respond pretty.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Quick yeah, usually within a few minutes. Great for balancing
those daily demand curves.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Then there's compressed air energy storage c eights, storing air underground.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, and salt caverns, old mines, aquifer You can press
air using off peak power instored under pressure, release it
through a turbine, usually heating it first to generate power
when needed. Finding suitable air tight underground locations is one. Also,
turbine efficiency drops as the cavern pressure decreases. But there
are big plants operating, like in Germany and Alabama, and
(05:18):
even bigger ones planned like one in Ohio aiming for
twenty seven hundred megawatts.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Wow. And flywheels they sound kind of cool.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They are basically a heavy cylinder spinning incredibly fast in
a near vacuum, stores kinetic energy. Their compact respond almost instantly,
lasts longer than batteries, and are about eighty percent efficient.
Great for ups, systems, data centers, even regenerative braking.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
What are they made of?
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Modern ones use advanced materials like carbon fiber reinforced polymer,
much stronger and lighter than steel, allowing higher speeds and
more energy storage. The book also mentions hydrogen high energy
density made via electrolysis and thermal storage like making ice,
even superconducting magnets, though they're still very expensive.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Okay, switching gears a bit. This is where the book
really becomes a story, right, taking us back through history.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Absolutely, it tracks our energy use per person over time.
Started Simple one hundred thousand years ago, it was just
the energy in our food. Then king fire cooking warmth
a big step up, and animals right agriculture around three
thousand BCE brought draft animals, oxen horses, more power for
plowing transport, and.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Then the first big machines water wheels.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
A huge leap really common From around five hundred CE
started Simple evolved into more efficient vertical wheels engineers like
John Smeaton in the eighteenth century really studded them, figured
out how to get more power. Overshot wheels hit sixty
percent efficiency, much better than undershot at thirty percent, and
inventions like the flyball governor made them more.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
Stable, setting the stage for steam.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Exactly the Industrial Revolution kicks off. Thomas Savory sixteen ninety eight,
Thomas Nucoman seventeen twelve. Their engines were mostly for pumping
water out of mines, low pressure. Quite an efficient but.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Vital w James wats big idea.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
The separate condenser seventeen sixty five brilliant. Before what you
cooled the cylinder itself to condense the steam, wasting huge
amounts of heat. Wa condensed the steam in a separate vessel,
keeping the main cylinder hot. Massive efficiency game.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
And he didn't stop there, No.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
He and Matthew Bolton built a business. They developed sun
and planet gears to get rotary motion, better governors, double
acting pistons really refined the steam engine, though the book
notes they were pretty ruthless about suppressing competition like Trevithick's
high pressure.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Engines, and the ultimate evolution was the steam turbine.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yes, Charles parsons eighteen eighties. Instead of pistons going back
and forth, steam flows continuously over blades, spinning a shaft directly,
much smoother, much more efficient, hitting forty five percent right away,
compared to maybe ten percent for Watt's later engines.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah, incredibly, Turbines still generate most electricity today.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Astonishing, isn't it? About eighty percent globally? Just the heat
source has changed for many of them, and for a.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Long time they heat source was overwhelmingly coal.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Yep, fossilized plants used here and there earlier, but it
exploded in thirteenth century England when forests got scarce. Then
the Industrial Revolution absolutely ran on it, iron making steam engines.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Creating those grimy industrial cities exactly.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
The pollution was terrible, smoke stacks everywhere, respiratory diseases rampant,
and the human cost of mining it horrific. The book
mentions the eighteen forty two Mines Act in Britain, but
deadly accidents still happened like in China today.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Yet coal is still a huge player.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Immense forty percent of global electricity. Yeah, almost half in
the US, eighty percent in China. Why it's abundant, maybe
one hundred and sixty years of reserves left. It's cheap.
The book quotes one dollar per gigadule versus six fourteen
for natural gas in Western Canada, and its secure, easy
to stockpile, unlike gas needing pipelines or oil kneading tankers.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
And that surprising fact about radioactivity.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, that coal ash is roughly one hundred times more
radioactive than the routine emissions from a similar size nuclear plant. Counterintuitive,
but it's due to naturally occurring radioactive elements concentrated in
the coal.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
But the environmental downsize are significant. Particulates huge health impact.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
One US study from two thousand estimated thirty thousand deaths
a year just from coal plant particulates. The CO two
major source. Atmospheric CO two is up thirty percent since
pre industrial times. The book explains the carbon cycle Nature
handles huge amounts, but our extra three percent from burning
fossil fuels is like a sharp shove, potentially causing wild
and violent oscillations in the climate system.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
The book mentions power area density.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
For coal right the smell drill, it calls it. Coal Plants,
including mines and transport, generate a lot of power per
square meter of land used, maybe one hundred to one
thousand watts per square meter. That's ten to one thousand
times more power dense than most renewables, less land needed,
which matters.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
How do we actually use coal? Mine it, burn it.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Mining is either surface or underground. Then it's cleaned, crushed
to powder, blown into a furnace, superheats water and tubes
into high pressure steam. Steam spins the TWE turbine generator
makes electricity. Steam is condensed in cooling towers. Water cycled efficiency.
Conventional plants are maybe thirty thirty five percent efficient. Next
Gen aims for forty five percent, limited by basic physics
(10:12):
the Rankine cycle.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
What about clean coal? Is it really clean?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Well, it's cleaner. Two main approaches IGCCC Integrated Gasification Combined
cycle turns coal into singus first, removing sulfur and heavy
metals before burning, cleaner emissions. The other is CCS. Carbon
Capture and Storage captures eighty ninety percent of the CO
two after burning, and stores it underground like in old
oil fields. It costs more significantly, adds maybe forty percent
(10:37):
for the cost of electricity. So cleaner, yes, but not
cheaper okay.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
Moving from coal to oil. Petroleum fuel of the Second
Industrial Revolution right comes in.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Different types, sweet, sour, light, heavy, think WTI Brent benchmarks,
and now with conventional oil getting harder to find, we
rely more on tar sands and oil shale.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Oil seems prone to volatility, prices.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Up and down hugely, partly geological risk, but mostly political instability,
especially in the Middle East. Think nineteen seventies oil embargo,
the Iranian revolution in seventy nine, big price shocks.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
How do we get it out of the ground?
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Drilling Obviously modern techniques like directional drilling let one rig
tap multiple parts of a reservoir. Extraction happens in stages.
Primary uses natural pressure, Secondary injects water or gas to
push more out. Tertiary might use steam or co two
gets maybe fifty sixty percent out in total. And fracking
injecting high pressure fluid to break the rock and release
(11:31):
trapped oil or gas. Very effective, but raises environmental concerns
about water use and potential groundwater contamination.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
And getting it to refineries. Pipelines and tankers vulnerable points.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Extremely pipelines like the Trans Alaska system face engineering challenges
and security risks. The book mentions a rifle shot incident
in two thousand and one. Supertankers have choke points like
the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption hits the global economy hard,
and US dependence on imports gives producers level.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Refining basically sorts the oil out. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Crude oil is a mix of hydrocarbon chains. Refining separates
them by boiling point into gases like propane, gasoline, components
like optane, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, and heavier stuff like
wax and asphalt.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
What about peak oil? Are we running out?
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The debate isn't so much if production will peak, but
when experts disagree, But the book suggests demand exceeding supplies,
likely within ten years or so. Unconventional sources like tarsans push.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
The peak back, but they have their own issues.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Big issues. Tarsans are very heavy sour oil mixed with
sand oil. Shale has carriage and locked in rock. Both
require huge amounts of energy to extract. The book mentions
getting maybe one hundred units of energy out for seventy
units put in for shale.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
And environmental impact.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Massive water use, potential, toxins, leaching, impacts on wildlife, higher
co two emissions than conventional oil. The Keystone exl pipeline
debate really highlighted these concerns.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Let's touch on natural gas quickly, oil's cleaner sibling.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Generally yeah, cheaper than oil currently more abundant reserves maybe
sixty years globally one hundred for the US burns cleaner
less CO two often found with oil transported mainly by
pipeline or liquefied as LNG for shipping. Big reserves in
Russia Qatar Uran expected to generate a growing share of electricity. O.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Ways, we have all these sources generating power, how does
it actually reach our homes? The grid? Again?
Speaker 2 (13:22):
The electrical grid an amazing feat of engineering, but also yeah, precarious.
Sometimes it starts with basic electrodynamics atoms, electrons, conductors. Maxwell's
work in eighteen sixty one unified electricity and magnetism explaining induction,
which is key to generators and motors.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
And transmission uses high voltage.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Why again, to minimize energy loss as heat. Power loss
is proportional to current squared, So if you increase the
voltage by ten times, you can decrease the current by
ten times for the same power cutting resistive losses by
one hundred times.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Transformers handle stepping voltage.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Up and down efficiently. Yes for AC, and Tesla's three
AC system from eighteen eighty eight one out because it
uses less wire, delivers constant power, and makes motor simpler.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
But the grid itself is tricky to manage power slashes around.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
It does, and the whole AC network has to be
perfectly synchronized in frequency and phase. It travels near light speed,
so a fault in one place can destabilize a huge
area almost instantly.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Like the two thousand and three blackout.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Textbook example, affected fifty five million people started with sagging
power lines hitting trees in Ohio than cascading failures, overloaded lines,
tripped operators, missed warnings, Software bugs contributed showed how interconnected
and vulnerable the system can be. North America actually has
three main grids that aren't usually connected.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Our transmission loss is significant.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
About seven percent on average and developed countries, but much
higher elsewhere twenty seven percent in India due to inefficiencies,
and theft DC is actually better for very long distances
like under sea cables, because it avoids some AC losses
like the skin.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Effect overhead lines versus underground trade offs.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Overhead is much cheaper to install, easier to repair, but
less esthetically pleasing, and more vulnerable to weather. Underground looks better,
is safer, but costs vastly more, is harder to fix,
and has limitations for ac over long distances due to capacitance.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
The future is smart grids.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
That's the idea using digital communication and control to react faster,
optimize powerflow, manage demand better, and integrate lots of small
distributed sources like rooftop solar or even electric cars feeding power.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Back to the grid Vehicle to grid BTG.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Exactly, or carpetrage charging your car when power is cheap,
selling it back when it's expensive. Smart grids aim to
make the system more resilient, efficient, and capable of handling renewables.
Aggregation reduces variability.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
As the book says, okay, let's talk renewables. Hydro power first,
water water everywhere.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Well not quite everywhere you need it for power. Hydroid
provides about six percent of total global power sixteen percent
of electricity. It's cheap to run maybe zero point nine
cents per kilowatt hour versus two point two for fossil fuels,
and it's dispatchable. You can ramp it up or down quickly.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Bigger dams are better.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Generally yes, volume increases faster than surface area, so efficiency
scales up. Different designs exist, embankment, gravity arch dams, most
use Francis turbines.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Pros seem clear cons limited.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Sites with the right geography and geology, very high upfront cost,
huge social impact. The Three Gorgeous Dam displaced over a
million people and downstream environmental effects reduced silt, changed water quality.
So while important, hydro alone can't solve everything, the book
estimates it might only ever meet five to seven percent
of total world demand, a small slice.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Ultimately, what about wind blowing in the wind? Its capacity
has grown fast, very fast.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Usually horizontal axis turbines hats power output is sensitive depends
on the square of blade length, but the cube of
wind speed and wind speed increases with height, so taller
turbines are much better.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Costs challenges.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Installation is expensive maintenance too. The biggest challenge, though, is intermittency.
It's unpredictable grid operator face variable demand and variable supply.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
How is that managed?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Spreading wind farms out help smooth the output. Aggregation reduces variability.
Coordinating with hydro can also help balance the grid. The
US DOE thinks wind could reach twenty percent of US
electricity by twenty thirty, but globally it's unlikely to be
the main source due to that erratic nature.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And solar. Here comes the sun, but only.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Sometimes exactly two main types. Concentrated solar power uses mirrors
to focus heat driving turbines. Photovoltaics PV convert sunlight directly
to electricity.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Efficiency and cost still hurdles.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah. PV efficiency is still relatively low, and cost per
kilo what hour is often higher than conventional sources, though
dropping The book quoted bural dollars and twenty two cents
cents arts in Europe versus daryl dollars or five cents
for nuclear at the.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Time, and the sun doesn't always shine.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
The core problem requires storage or backup. Subsidies like Germany's
feed in terrace boosted installations significantly but became very expensive,
leading to cutbacks.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
The book mentions a wild idea satellite solar power.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Huh yeah, a very distant future possibility. Satellites in permanent
sunlight beaming power down as microwaves. One satellite might generate
seven hundred and thirty five miliw.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
How many would we need.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
To power the whole world? Maybe twenty thousand. The cost
of launching all that the technology it's centuries away. Realistically
fascinating idea though.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Which brings us inevitably to nuclear power controversial, but the
book suggests essential.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
That's the argument it builds. It starts with the science,
the strong nuclear force holding nuclei together binding energy peaks
around iron fifty six emcire means tiny amounts of mass
convert to huge energy, powering the world for a year,
and needs maybe a few hundred kilograms of mass conversion.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Fission versus fusion.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Fission is splitting heavy atoms like uranium two thirty five
with neutrons, causes a chain reaction controlled and reactors uncontrolled
in bombs, releases energy and more neutrons. Fusion is joining
light atoms like hydrogen isotopes, releasing even more energy. That's
how stars work, much harder to achieve controllably on Earth.
(19:05):
No commercial fusion yet, likely not this century. And radioactivity
that's from the weak nuclear force causing unstable fission products
to decay, things like strown TM ninety five, xenon one
thirty nine. That's the health hazard, not the reactor exploding
like a bomb.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
What about fuel? Will we run out of uranium?
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Uranium two thirty five is only point seven percent of
natural uranium, But uranium itself isn't that rare. Current estimates
based on known reserves and current reactor types suggest maybe
eighty year supply only eighty years ah, but that's nuanced.
It depends heavily on price. If the price doubles, reserves
effectively increase tenfold because lower grade ores become economical. And
the big picture, current reactors are very inefficient, using maybe
(19:43):
two percent of the potential energy. Fast breeder reactors could
change that dramatically. US breeders can use the abundant uranium
two thirty eight, converting it to plutonium two thirty nine,
which is fissile. They can actually create more fuel than
they consume, potentially extending reserves by a factor of fifty.
We'd have fuel for thousands of years. Plus there are
stockpiles and fuel from decommissioned weapons.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
What about the reactors themselves.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
PWRs are common pressurized water reactors. Yes, Most in the
West use ordinary water as a moderator, which absorbs some neutrons,
so they need enriched uranium three to five percent U
two thirty five. Compact safe designs evolve from submarine reactors
and CHANDYU reacts. Cadium design uses heavy water toterium oxide
as moderator. Heavy water absorbs very few neutrons, so they
(20:27):
can run on natural, unenriched uranium. They can also burn
plutonium from spent PWR fuel. A key advantage is non proliferation,
no enrichment tech needed, and those fast breeders still mostly prototypes,
use liquid metal coolants like sodium that don't slow neutrons much.
They breed plutonium two thirty nine from uranium two thirty eight,
can potentially increase fuel supply by thirty percent, not yet
(20:49):
economically competitive. And enthusiasm cooled a bit after Fukushima in
some places.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Which leads to public perception fear. The book calls it
disquiet and fear. It feels very deep seated.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
It absolutely is very emotional. Fukushima was a severe accident, earthquake, tsunami,
cooling failure, melt downs, radiation release. Can't downplay that, but
the book urges perspective. Compare risks Chernobyl deaths are sighted
anywhere from thirty one officially to hundreds of thousands or
even a million by some groups. The reality is complex,
but statistically, wind farms have caused more fatalities per unit
(21:24):
of energy than nuclear. Air pollution from coal kills tens
of thousands annually in the US alone. Car accidents kill tens.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
Of thousands in the Radiation from coal ash.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Right, more routine radiation exposure near a coal plant than
a properly functioning nuclear plant. It's about perceived risk versus
actual statistical risk. Like tanning beds versus cell phones. People
worry more about the less statistically dangerous one. Nuclear's power
density is high too, Yeah, very high, comparable to fossil fuels.
Around six h fifty willam is beenworn for the Bruce
plant example, way way higher than renewables, less land needed,
(21:57):
and economically the screening curve showed. So nuclear makes sense
for base load running constantly because its high initial cost
is offset by very low fuel costs when operated at
high capacity factors above seventy percent.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
So, wrapping up, what's the book's outlook for the future. Pragmatic?
Speaker 2 (22:13):
You said, very pragmatic, long long term, two hundred years.
Maybe electricity too cheap to meter, probably from fusion, but
expect fusion disasters along the way.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
It predicts, and the transition the next fifty.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Years still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, coal, maybe cleaner
oil gas. Why existing infrastructure, economic inertia, abundance, They won't
disappear overnight.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
What about renewables in that timeframe?
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Hydro is limited, wind is growing, but erratic, solar is intermittent.
Load density still costly relative to baseload. The book estimates
renewables might optimistically provide barely a third of our needs
when fossil fuels dwindle.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
So if renewables can't fill the gap.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Entirely, nuclear fission becomes the necessary bridge. The book argues,
it's reasonably economical for base load, it's low carbon compared
to coal, and statistically it's safe compared to other major
energy sources and even common activities like driving.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
The biggest challenge isn't technical.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Then, arguably it's overcoming that natural but irrational fear of
nuclear power, while of course continuing to make reactors as
safe as humanly possible. And there's the underlying link. GDP
and power use are tightly correlated, reducing consumption might mean
fundamentally changing lifestyles. AH tough questions.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
So a final provocative thought from the book to leave listeners.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
With, consider this quote. There may be wars over energy resources,
there will be casualties from the energy sources that we
do use, but nuclear power will contribute only a small
part to both these causes of human unhappiness.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And the ultimate takeaway.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
The bottom line is this, even if we push the
more lovable renewable alternatives as far as they will go,
we have no choice but to employ nuclear fission power.
A stark conclusion.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
Wow, definitely food for thought. Thank you for walking us
through that deep dive into the science of power generation.
Incredibly complex, it really is.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Hopefully this journey through lights On provides a clearer, maybe
more nuanced view of our energy reality and the big
choices ahead.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Keep those neurons firing, keep asking questions, and keep exploring.
We'll be back soon with another deep dive.
Welcome curious minds to the deep dive. Today we're embarking
on really an extraordinary journey into something fundamental, power generation.
We're using Lights on the Science of Power of Regeneration
by Mark Denny as our guide, our mission to unpack
humanity's whole quest for energy from basics to breakthroughs, purely
through science and engineering.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
No politics here exactly, and it's not just a textbook.
Denny tells a story, really a story of ingenuity, challenges
and the physics behind it all. We're looking at the
what and why of our energy story, past, present and future,
and there are some really surprising facts in there.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
It's a whole narrative of how we power our world.
So let's keep the lights on, as they say, and
dive in. Okay, let's get started before jumping into the
big machines. The book lays some groundwork. What exactly are
energy and power? Right?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
The fundamentals. Energy simply put, is the ability to do work.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
Like water turning a millstone, or gasoline moving.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
A car precisely, and power is the rate you do
that work, how fast the energy is used or converted.
Energy comes in different flavors, you know, Kinetic is motion,
a train, a spinning flywheel. Potential energy is stored, could
be positioned like a raised rock, or chemical bonds in fuel,
or even a compressed spring and heat.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
The book calls it the lowest form.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Yeah, sort of the common currency. Almost all other forms
can degrade into heat. Think of a meteor. All that
kinetic and potential energy just becomes intense heat in the atmosphere.
It's still kinetic energy, just at the molecular level.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Okay, So energy converts between forms, like in a hydro
dam exactly.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Water behind the dam has gravitational potential energy, it flows down.
That's kinetic energy. Spins a turbine rotational kinetic energy, which
drives a generator, making electrical energy.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
But never perfectly right.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
There's always loss, always some loss, Yeah, usually as heat.
That's just thermodynamics. Inefficiency is baked in.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Got it. What about the scale of power? The book
gives some mind bending numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:56):
Oh yeah, humanity consumes somewhere between fourteen and twenty tarrawats
on average. That's trillions of watts continuously.
Speaker 1 (02:04):
Wow, compared to.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
What well, your electric kettle might use a couple of
kilowatts Niagara falls on average. It's expending about one point
three gigawats and lightning.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
I remember seeing a huge number.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
For that, right, A single bolt can peak at four tarrawats,
absolutely immense power.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
So quick question then, if lightning is that powerful, why
don't we harness it?
Speaker 2 (02:25):
Huh? Good question. It's incredibly brief, unpredictable, and hard to capture.
But it also highlights why electricity is so useful for distribution.
It's fast, near light speed, and a cable and compact
much much easier to move around than say, cartloads of
coal or trying to pipe heat somewhere before it leaks away.
(02:45):
Electricity is just incredibly convenient convenience.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Right, yeah, that makes sense. And the book talks about
transducers for converting energy yep.
Speaker 2 (02:52):
Any device that changes energy from one form to another,
and their efficiencies very wildly. Like the old incandition light
bulb terrible, maybe five percent efficient at making light, most
of the energy just becomes heat.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Fluorescent is better, LEDs even more.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
So, right soloressa maybe twenty percent. LEDs can hit thirty
five percent. Solar panels, though, are surprisingly low if you
consider the whole plant's land use. The book mentions less
than one percent conversion of incoming sunlight to electricity.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
But an electric heater is efficient.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Over ninety five percent because heat is what you want,
So efficiency really depends on the goal.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Okay, so we generate power, we convert it, but then
there's the grid balancing. It sounds like a nightmare. Demand
is always changing.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Constantly, daily cycles, seasonal shifts, even minute to minute spikes
and dips. It's a huge dynamic challenge.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
And if you don't balance it blackouts.
Speaker 2 (03:42):
If supply doesn't match demand precisely, the system frequency goes off,
generators trip offline, and things can cascade very quickly. You
need ways to smooth things out.
Speaker 1 (03:51):
Which brings us to energy storage.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
Exactly essential for managing those fluctuations.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What are the main options? The book mentions capacitors, but
says they're not really for large scale right.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
They store energy electrically but don't hold very much for
their size or weight. Good for quick bursts, not for
powering a city. The book even uses a thundercloud as
a quirky natural example.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
So batteries are more practical definitely.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
You've got your disposable ones alkaline, lithium, and rechargeables like
lithium ion, lead, acid, rechargeables are key. Obviously they can
handle hundreds, maybe thousands of cycles, but they do self
discharge and deep cycling shortens their life, plus disposal can
be an issue. Still crucial technology.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
What about bigger scale pumped hydro seems important.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Hugely important. Simple concept. Use cheap off peak power to
pump water uphill into a reservoir. Then when demand peaks,
let the water flow back down through turbines to generate electricity.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
And it's quick to respond pretty.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Quick yeah, usually within a few minutes. Great for balancing
those daily demand curves.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Then there's compressed air energy storage c eights, storing air underground.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Yeah, and salt caverns, old mines, aquifer You can press
air using off peak power instored under pressure, release it
through a turbine, usually heating it first to generate power
when needed. Finding suitable air tight underground locations is one. Also,
turbine efficiency drops as the cavern pressure decreases. But there
are big plants operating, like in Germany and Alabama, and
(05:18):
even bigger ones planned like one in Ohio aiming for
twenty seven hundred megawatts.
Speaker 1 (05:23):
Wow. And flywheels they sound kind of cool.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
They are basically a heavy cylinder spinning incredibly fast in
a near vacuum, stores kinetic energy. Their compact respond almost instantly,
lasts longer than batteries, and are about eighty percent efficient.
Great for ups, systems, data centers, even regenerative braking.
Speaker 1 (05:41):
What are they made of?
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Modern ones use advanced materials like carbon fiber reinforced polymer,
much stronger and lighter than steel, allowing higher speeds and
more energy storage. The book also mentions hydrogen high energy
density made via electrolysis and thermal storage like making ice,
even superconducting magnets, though they're still very expensive.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Okay, switching gears a bit. This is where the book
really becomes a story, right, taking us back through history.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Absolutely, it tracks our energy use per person over time.
Started Simple one hundred thousand years ago, it was just
the energy in our food. Then king fire cooking warmth
a big step up, and animals right agriculture around three
thousand BCE brought draft animals, oxen horses, more power for
plowing transport, and.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Then the first big machines water wheels.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
A huge leap really common From around five hundred CE
started Simple evolved into more efficient vertical wheels engineers like
John Smeaton in the eighteenth century really studded them, figured
out how to get more power. Overshot wheels hit sixty
percent efficiency, much better than undershot at thirty percent, and
inventions like the flyball governor made them more.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
Stable, setting the stage for steam.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Exactly the Industrial Revolution kicks off. Thomas Savory sixteen ninety eight,
Thomas Nucoman seventeen twelve. Their engines were mostly for pumping
water out of mines, low pressure. Quite an efficient but.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
Vital w James wats big idea.
Speaker 2 (07:02):
The separate condenser seventeen sixty five brilliant. Before what you
cooled the cylinder itself to condense the steam, wasting huge
amounts of heat. Wa condensed the steam in a separate vessel,
keeping the main cylinder hot. Massive efficiency game.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
And he didn't stop there, No.
Speaker 2 (07:15):
He and Matthew Bolton built a business. They developed sun
and planet gears to get rotary motion, better governors, double
acting pistons really refined the steam engine, though the book
notes they were pretty ruthless about suppressing competition like Trevithick's
high pressure.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Engines, and the ultimate evolution was the steam turbine.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yes, Charles parsons eighteen eighties. Instead of pistons going back
and forth, steam flows continuously over blades, spinning a shaft directly,
much smoother, much more efficient, hitting forty five percent right away,
compared to maybe ten percent for Watt's later engines.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah, incredibly, Turbines still generate most electricity today.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Astonishing, isn't it? About eighty percent globally? Just the heat
source has changed for many of them, and for a.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
Long time they heat source was overwhelmingly coal.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Yep, fossilized plants used here and there earlier, but it
exploded in thirteenth century England when forests got scarce. Then
the Industrial Revolution absolutely ran on it, iron making steam engines.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Creating those grimy industrial cities exactly.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
The pollution was terrible, smoke stacks everywhere, respiratory diseases rampant,
and the human cost of mining it horrific. The book
mentions the eighteen forty two Mines Act in Britain, but
deadly accidents still happened like in China today.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Yet coal is still a huge player.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Immense forty percent of global electricity. Yeah, almost half in
the US, eighty percent in China. Why it's abundant, maybe
one hundred and sixty years of reserves left. It's cheap.
The book quotes one dollar per gigadule versus six fourteen
for natural gas in Western Canada, and its secure, easy
to stockpile, unlike gas needing pipelines or oil kneading tankers.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
And that surprising fact about radioactivity.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Yeah, that coal ash is roughly one hundred times more
radioactive than the routine emissions from a similar size nuclear plant. Counterintuitive,
but it's due to naturally occurring radioactive elements concentrated in
the coal.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
But the environmental downsize are significant. Particulates huge health impact.
Speaker 2 (09:07):
One US study from two thousand estimated thirty thousand deaths
a year just from coal plant particulates. The CO two
major source. Atmospheric CO two is up thirty percent since
pre industrial times. The book explains the carbon cycle Nature
handles huge amounts, but our extra three percent from burning
fossil fuels is like a sharp shove, potentially causing wild
and violent oscillations in the climate system.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
The book mentions power area density.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
For coal right the smell drill, it calls it. Coal Plants,
including mines and transport, generate a lot of power per
square meter of land used, maybe one hundred to one
thousand watts per square meter. That's ten to one thousand
times more power dense than most renewables, less land needed,
which matters.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
How do we actually use coal? Mine it, burn it.
Speaker 2 (09:51):
Mining is either surface or underground. Then it's cleaned, crushed
to powder, blown into a furnace, superheats water and tubes
into high pressure steam. Steam spins the TWE turbine generator
makes electricity. Steam is condensed in cooling towers. Water cycled efficiency.
Conventional plants are maybe thirty thirty five percent efficient. Next
Gen aims for forty five percent, limited by basic physics
(10:12):
the Rankine cycle.
Speaker 1 (10:13):
What about clean coal? Is it really clean?
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Well, it's cleaner. Two main approaches IGCCC Integrated Gasification Combined
cycle turns coal into singus first, removing sulfur and heavy
metals before burning, cleaner emissions. The other is CCS. Carbon
Capture and Storage captures eighty ninety percent of the CO
two after burning, and stores it underground like in old
oil fields. It costs more significantly, adds maybe forty percent
(10:37):
for the cost of electricity. So cleaner, yes, but not
cheaper okay.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
Moving from coal to oil. Petroleum fuel of the Second
Industrial Revolution right comes in.
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Different types, sweet, sour, light, heavy, think WTI Brent benchmarks,
and now with conventional oil getting harder to find, we
rely more on tar sands and oil shale.
Speaker 1 (10:55):
Oil seems prone to volatility, prices.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Up and down hugely, partly geological risk, but mostly political instability,
especially in the Middle East. Think nineteen seventies oil embargo,
the Iranian revolution in seventy nine, big price shocks.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
How do we get it out of the ground?
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Drilling Obviously modern techniques like directional drilling let one rig
tap multiple parts of a reservoir. Extraction happens in stages.
Primary uses natural pressure, Secondary injects water or gas to
push more out. Tertiary might use steam or co two
gets maybe fifty sixty percent out in total. And fracking
injecting high pressure fluid to break the rock and release
(11:31):
trapped oil or gas. Very effective, but raises environmental concerns
about water use and potential groundwater contamination.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
And getting it to refineries. Pipelines and tankers vulnerable points.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Extremely pipelines like the Trans Alaska system face engineering challenges
and security risks. The book mentions a rifle shot incident
in two thousand and one. Supertankers have choke points like
the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption hits the global economy hard,
and US dependence on imports gives producers level.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Refining basically sorts the oil out. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Crude oil is a mix of hydrocarbon chains. Refining separates
them by boiling point into gases like propane, gasoline, components
like optane, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, and heavier stuff like
wax and asphalt.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
What about peak oil? Are we running out?
Speaker 2 (12:15):
The debate isn't so much if production will peak, but
when experts disagree, But the book suggests demand exceeding supplies,
likely within ten years or so. Unconventional sources like tarsans push.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
The peak back, but they have their own issues.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Big issues. Tarsans are very heavy sour oil mixed with
sand oil. Shale has carriage and locked in rock. Both
require huge amounts of energy to extract. The book mentions
getting maybe one hundred units of energy out for seventy
units put in for shale.
Speaker 1 (12:43):
And environmental impact.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Massive water use, potential, toxins, leaching, impacts on wildlife, higher
co two emissions than conventional oil. The Keystone exl pipeline
debate really highlighted these concerns.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Let's touch on natural gas quickly, oil's cleaner sibling.
Speaker 2 (12:59):
Generally yeah, cheaper than oil currently more abundant reserves maybe
sixty years globally one hundred for the US burns cleaner
less CO two often found with oil transported mainly by
pipeline or liquefied as LNG for shipping. Big reserves in
Russia Qatar Uran expected to generate a growing share of electricity. O.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Ways, we have all these sources generating power, how does
it actually reach our homes? The grid? Again?
Speaker 2 (13:22):
The electrical grid an amazing feat of engineering, but also yeah, precarious.
Sometimes it starts with basic electrodynamics atoms, electrons, conductors. Maxwell's
work in eighteen sixty one unified electricity and magnetism explaining induction,
which is key to generators and motors.
Speaker 1 (13:40):
And transmission uses high voltage.
Speaker 2 (13:41):
Why again, to minimize energy loss as heat. Power loss
is proportional to current squared, So if you increase the
voltage by ten times, you can decrease the current by
ten times for the same power cutting resistive losses by
one hundred times.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Transformers handle stepping voltage.
Speaker 2 (13:57):
Up and down efficiently. Yes for AC, and Tesla's three
AC system from eighteen eighty eight one out because it
uses less wire, delivers constant power, and makes motor simpler.
Speaker 1 (14:06):
But the grid itself is tricky to manage power slashes around.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
It does, and the whole AC network has to be
perfectly synchronized in frequency and phase. It travels near light speed,
so a fault in one place can destabilize a huge
area almost instantly.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Like the two thousand and three blackout.
Speaker 2 (14:21):
Textbook example, affected fifty five million people started with sagging
power lines hitting trees in Ohio than cascading failures, overloaded lines,
tripped operators, missed warnings, Software bugs contributed showed how interconnected
and vulnerable the system can be. North America actually has
three main grids that aren't usually connected.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
Our transmission loss is significant.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
About seven percent on average and developed countries, but much
higher elsewhere twenty seven percent in India due to inefficiencies,
and theft DC is actually better for very long distances
like under sea cables, because it avoids some AC losses
like the skin.
Speaker 1 (14:56):
Effect overhead lines versus underground trade offs.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Overhead is much cheaper to install, easier to repair, but
less esthetically pleasing, and more vulnerable to weather. Underground looks better,
is safer, but costs vastly more, is harder to fix,
and has limitations for ac over long distances due to capacitance.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
The future is smart grids.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
That's the idea using digital communication and control to react faster,
optimize powerflow, manage demand better, and integrate lots of small
distributed sources like rooftop solar or even electric cars feeding power.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Back to the grid Vehicle to grid BTG.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
Exactly, or carpetrage charging your car when power is cheap,
selling it back when it's expensive. Smart grids aim to
make the system more resilient, efficient, and capable of handling renewables.
Aggregation reduces variability.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
As the book says, okay, let's talk renewables. Hydro power first,
water water everywhere.
Speaker 2 (15:47):
Well not quite everywhere you need it for power. Hydroid
provides about six percent of total global power sixteen percent
of electricity. It's cheap to run maybe zero point nine
cents per kilowatt hour versus two point two for fossil fuels,
and it's dispatchable. You can ramp it up or down quickly.
Speaker 1 (16:02):
Bigger dams are better.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Generally yes, volume increases faster than surface area, so efficiency
scales up. Different designs exist, embankment, gravity arch dams, most
use Francis turbines.
Speaker 1 (16:13):
Pros seem clear cons limited.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Sites with the right geography and geology, very high upfront cost,
huge social impact. The Three Gorgeous Dam displaced over a
million people and downstream environmental effects reduced silt, changed water quality.
So while important, hydro alone can't solve everything, the book
estimates it might only ever meet five to seven percent
of total world demand, a small slice.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
Ultimately, what about wind blowing in the wind? Its capacity
has grown fast, very fast.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
Usually horizontal axis turbines hats power output is sensitive depends
on the square of blade length, but the cube of
wind speed and wind speed increases with height, so taller
turbines are much better.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Costs challenges.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Installation is expensive maintenance too. The biggest challenge, though, is intermittency.
It's unpredictable grid operator face variable demand and variable supply.
Speaker 1 (17:02):
How is that managed?
Speaker 2 (17:04):
Spreading wind farms out help smooth the output. Aggregation reduces variability.
Coordinating with hydro can also help balance the grid. The
US DOE thinks wind could reach twenty percent of US
electricity by twenty thirty, but globally it's unlikely to be
the main source due to that erratic nature.
Speaker 1 (17:20):
And solar. Here comes the sun, but only.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Sometimes exactly two main types. Concentrated solar power uses mirrors
to focus heat driving turbines. Photovoltaics PV convert sunlight directly
to electricity.
Speaker 1 (17:32):
Efficiency and cost still hurdles.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
Yeah. PV efficiency is still relatively low, and cost per
kilo what hour is often higher than conventional sources, though
dropping The book quoted bural dollars and twenty two cents
cents arts in Europe versus daryl dollars or five cents
for nuclear at the.
Speaker 1 (17:47):
Time, and the sun doesn't always shine.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
The core problem requires storage or backup. Subsidies like Germany's
feed in terrace boosted installations significantly but became very expensive,
leading to cutbacks.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
The book mentions a wild idea satellite solar power.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Huh yeah, a very distant future possibility. Satellites in permanent
sunlight beaming power down as microwaves. One satellite might generate
seven hundred and thirty five miliw.
Speaker 1 (18:14):
How many would we need.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
To power the whole world? Maybe twenty thousand. The cost
of launching all that the technology it's centuries away. Realistically
fascinating idea though.
Speaker 1 (18:22):
Which brings us inevitably to nuclear power controversial, but the
book suggests essential.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
That's the argument it builds. It starts with the science,
the strong nuclear force holding nuclei together binding energy peaks
around iron fifty six emcire means tiny amounts of mass
convert to huge energy, powering the world for a year,
and needs maybe a few hundred kilograms of mass conversion.
Speaker 1 (18:42):
Fission versus fusion.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Fission is splitting heavy atoms like uranium two thirty five
with neutrons, causes a chain reaction controlled and reactors uncontrolled
in bombs, releases energy and more neutrons. Fusion is joining
light atoms like hydrogen isotopes, releasing even more energy. That's
how stars work, much harder to achieve controllably on Earth.
(19:05):
No commercial fusion yet, likely not this century. And radioactivity
that's from the weak nuclear force causing unstable fission products
to decay, things like strown TM ninety five, xenon one
thirty nine. That's the health hazard, not the reactor exploding
like a bomb.
Speaker 1 (19:18):
What about fuel? Will we run out of uranium?
Speaker 2 (19:20):
Uranium two thirty five is only point seven percent of
natural uranium, But uranium itself isn't that rare. Current estimates
based on known reserves and current reactor types suggest maybe
eighty year supply only eighty years ah, but that's nuanced.
It depends heavily on price. If the price doubles, reserves
effectively increase tenfold because lower grade ores become economical. And
the big picture, current reactors are very inefficient, using maybe
(19:43):
two percent of the potential energy. Fast breeder reactors could
change that dramatically. US breeders can use the abundant uranium
two thirty eight, converting it to plutonium two thirty nine,
which is fissile. They can actually create more fuel than
they consume, potentially extending reserves by a factor of fifty.
We'd have fuel for thousands of years. Plus there are
stockpiles and fuel from decommissioned weapons.
Speaker 1 (20:03):
What about the reactors themselves.
Speaker 2 (20:04):
PWRs are common pressurized water reactors. Yes, Most in the
West use ordinary water as a moderator, which absorbs some neutrons,
so they need enriched uranium three to five percent U
two thirty five. Compact safe designs evolve from submarine reactors
and CHANDYU reacts. Cadium design uses heavy water toterium oxide
as moderator. Heavy water absorbs very few neutrons, so they
(20:27):
can run on natural, unenriched uranium. They can also burn
plutonium from spent PWR fuel. A key advantage is non proliferation,
no enrichment tech needed, and those fast breeders still mostly prototypes,
use liquid metal coolants like sodium that don't slow neutrons much.
They breed plutonium two thirty nine from uranium two thirty eight,
can potentially increase fuel supply by thirty percent, not yet
(20:49):
economically competitive. And enthusiasm cooled a bit after Fukushima in
some places.
Speaker 1 (20:53):
Which leads to public perception fear. The book calls it
disquiet and fear. It feels very deep seated.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
It absolutely is very emotional. Fukushima was a severe accident, earthquake, tsunami,
cooling failure, melt downs, radiation release. Can't downplay that, but
the book urges perspective. Compare risks Chernobyl deaths are sighted
anywhere from thirty one officially to hundreds of thousands or
even a million by some groups. The reality is complex,
but statistically, wind farms have caused more fatalities per unit
(21:24):
of energy than nuclear. Air pollution from coal kills tens
of thousands annually in the US alone. Car accidents kill tens.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
Of thousands in the Radiation from coal ash.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Right, more routine radiation exposure near a coal plant than
a properly functioning nuclear plant. It's about perceived risk versus
actual statistical risk. Like tanning beds versus cell phones. People
worry more about the less statistically dangerous one. Nuclear's power
density is high too, Yeah, very high, comparable to fossil fuels.
Around six h fifty willam is beenworn for the Bruce
plant example, way way higher than renewables, less land needed,
(21:57):
and economically the screening curve showed. So nuclear makes sense
for base load running constantly because its high initial cost
is offset by very low fuel costs when operated at
high capacity factors above seventy percent.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
So, wrapping up, what's the book's outlook for the future. Pragmatic?
Speaker 2 (22:13):
You said, very pragmatic, long long term, two hundred years.
Maybe electricity too cheap to meter, probably from fusion, but
expect fusion disasters along the way.
Speaker 1 (22:23):
It predicts, and the transition the next fifty.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
Years still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, coal, maybe cleaner
oil gas. Why existing infrastructure, economic inertia, abundance, They won't
disappear overnight.
Speaker 1 (22:35):
What about renewables in that timeframe?
Speaker 2 (22:37):
Hydro is limited, wind is growing, but erratic, solar is intermittent.
Load density still costly relative to baseload. The book estimates
renewables might optimistically provide barely a third of our needs
when fossil fuels dwindle.
Speaker 1 (22:49):
So if renewables can't fill the gap.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Entirely, nuclear fission becomes the necessary bridge. The book argues,
it's reasonably economical for base load, it's low carbon compared
to coal, and statistically it's safe compared to other major
energy sources and even common activities like driving.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
The biggest challenge isn't technical.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
Then, arguably it's overcoming that natural but irrational fear of
nuclear power, while of course continuing to make reactors as
safe as humanly possible. And there's the underlying link. GDP
and power use are tightly correlated, reducing consumption might mean
fundamentally changing lifestyles. AH tough questions.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
So a final provocative thought from the book to leave listeners.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
With, consider this quote. There may be wars over energy resources,
there will be casualties from the energy sources that we
do use, but nuclear power will contribute only a small
part to both these causes of human unhappiness.
Speaker 1 (23:42):
And the ultimate takeaway.
Speaker 2 (23:44):
The bottom line is this, even if we push the
more lovable renewable alternatives as far as they will go,
we have no choice but to employ nuclear fission power.
A stark conclusion.
Speaker 1 (23:53):
Wow, definitely food for thought. Thank you for walking us
through that deep dive into the science of power generation.
Incredibly complex, it really is.
Speaker 2 (24:02):
Hopefully this journey through lights On provides a clearer, maybe
more nuanced view of our energy reality and the big
choices ahead.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
Keep those neurons firing, keep asking questions, and keep exploring.
We'll be back soon with another deep dive.
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