College Football Group of 5 Preview & Week 0 Preview

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Cash everything around me.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Crag get the money's.

Speaker 1 (00:05):
Cash everything around me. Crag hit the moneys.

Speaker 3 (00:13):
You know a lot of boys and mes to c
see Danny Life and boy were right now locking up
your Saturday. So you'll poke you some payment out of pons.
But we only care about what statement. It's bosting Nady
cappas this fostin Natty kappas Jo. This bossin Natty cappas Jo.

(00:40):
It's Fostin Andy kappas Jeff Fussing and Capps.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Welcome back to episode number three of the Bostom Handicappers Podcast.
Today we are going to be talking about the Non
Power War Conference, the Group of Five as they call it.
I guess the h the average better. I'm here with
CT bets. I'm doing with hats here with CT bets,
and of course Julian Edlow of DK Network making sure

(01:08):
I get that correct this time making a.

Speaker 4 (01:10):
New host of DK and Daily Bets standing up with
the new host, which you can only find on DK network.

Speaker 2 (01:16):
That's that's very fun, Jewels. I love to hear that. Yeah,
all right, well there you go, so Jewels, you're doing
very well with your your DK network bets. I'm very
happy to hear that daily. Very very proud of you, pal,
and of course joining us ct bets. Fout them on
Twitter at ct bets sixteen ct bets.

Speaker 1 (01:33):
How you doing, Partner.

Speaker 5 (01:34):
Always a pleasure. You know, this is my favorite night
when we record the Group of five. Yes, that's my
favorite uh conferences to talk. So I'm very excited for tonight.
I actually they call them CTG five. That's right, yes,
not ct UFC anymore. CTG five.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
Ye.

Speaker 5 (01:51):
I're just switching over to college football season, so yep.
No excited to be back at it with you boys.

Speaker 2 (01:57):
All right, Yeah, so we're doing We're going to be
doing the Group five. We'll start with the Mountain West guys.
I'll just give quickly the odds here Boise favorite of
minus one fifty u NLV plus seven or plus seven hundred.
San Jose State nine to one, Fresno State twelve to one,
Air Force fifteen to one, Colorado State sixteen to one,
Hawaii seventeen the one the rest way way way further down.

(02:19):
H Let's start with Jewels, because I know Jewles has
a take on the Mountain West. I'll start with you, Jewles,
what do you like in the Mountain West this year.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
All right, well this is Is this a CT and
I combo or are you stas? Okay?

Speaker 4 (02:32):
So this is CT and I will There's only so
many bets that he and I are going to give
out on G five, and we happened to overlap on
about eighty percent of them, say from the two of us.
But I put out Boise in one of my articles
for DraftKings at minus one thirty to win the Mountain West.
I came back and said, hey, I want more than
a unit on this and added to it at minus

(02:54):
one forty.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
We're now at like one fifty range fifty. About where
I would go to.

Speaker 4 (03:00):
Boise is head and shoulders above not just the rest
of the Mountain West, but the rest of the G five,
I think, and smarter people than me will tell you
that the gent loss, I think is something that the
casual fan will say, well, that's arguably the best player
in college football.

Speaker 1 (03:20):
How do you rebound from that?

Speaker 4 (03:21):
They have a group of running backs that can fill
in the gap there and the rest of the team,
I mean, quarterback, you're covered. You got the same quarterback
coming back, veteran quarterback. You got a good offensive line,
you have a really solid defense. And this is a
conference where the championship game is home field, which mattered
last year. Playing UNLV on the smurf turf that was

(03:42):
a home field really mattered in that game. That was
a good revenge spot for UNLV coming off the home loss.
And because that game was in Boise, I think that
really helped them in that game. Schedule wise, you're gonna
be a big dog at Notre Dame, but that's great
that you get to go test yourself against legit competition
rest of the games your you're a big favorite CT

(04:03):
and I agree. I don't know why USF is down
from ten and a half to six, but it is.
I think Boise is a ten or eleven win team,
probably ten. We'll say they slip up once, but like
you're still gonna host that game, You're still gonna be
a monster favorite in that game. We have to make
the conference title. Odds up on DK sportsbook, Boise's like
minus four twenty five, four to fifty to make the game.

(04:26):
If you're telling me, they're almost a five dollars favorite
to make the game, and I can get him one
fifty to win the conference, I'm.

Speaker 5 (04:31):
In yeah, I mean I don't disagree at all, right,
I mean, Dan, I even went a further a step
further here. So if you think that they're gonna win
the Mountain West, which I do as well, you might
as well bet them than make the playoff. So I
bet to make the playoff, you get plus one eighty five.
I think right now on a few books and kind

(04:52):
of what Jewels says. I mean, they're gonna have to
lose two games as double digit favors for them not
to cash the O nine and a half. I know
the over nine and a half is juice right now,
and I think some books have gone has some books
gone to ten?

Speaker 1 (05:06):
Dan, I believe ten ten and a half.

Speaker 2 (05:08):
I'll take a look at I'll take a look at
the Bois. He wins a little most boys.

Speaker 5 (05:11):
I mean I laid some Boise over nine and a
half minus two hundred there. I mean, like Jewel says,
you know, the first game of the year, they're playing USF.
That line comes down from nine and a half down
the six and a half ten and a half. Okay,
I'm now in Boise is a money line parlay piece
for me?

Speaker 1 (05:29):
Now Week one.

Speaker 4 (05:30):
If it's in that tea, you don't tease college football.
But if it's in that teaser like six six and
a half range, that is a one leg of a
two leg money line parlay for me week one.

Speaker 5 (05:38):
I'm getting really really close to Tibatan Boise week one
versus USF. I think this is a little bit of
an overreaction here, and I don't agree with with the market.
I think six is way too low. I think the
game should be a lot higher. I'm probably closer to
eight and a half.

Speaker 1 (05:56):
Nine.

Speaker 5 (05:57):
No name their toughest game on the schedule, not even close,
obviously most likely a loss. I think Notre Dame is
gonna be a fifteen and a half, sixteen point favorite.
That game's the first Saturday of October, October fourth. I
believe you and know v they're down this year, and
you know Boise plays them in Idaho this year on

(06:18):
the smurf turf. Like Jules says, Maddox back under center.
From what I understand, they love the running back room
and they're not concerned one bit without with losing genty.
So this is a Boise team I think that is
going to plow through the Mountain West once again. CT
and j E square here Boise State over nine and

(06:39):
a half and then make the playoff here.

Speaker 2 (06:41):
Yeah, so I don't disagree. I mean, really looking at
their schedule outside of the South Florida road trip and
the Notre Dame road trip, the only other difficult game
that I even have them down for is the Air
Force game. Oh, I think is gonna be significantly better
than they were last year. Besides that, I mean, New
Mexico lost their head, which app State is, in my opinion,

(07:02):
is a nightmare, you know, disaster right now. Situation going
on there UNLV Fresno State, who I think is kind
of in the same boat there. Colorado State could be better,
but their their mount West road trips are Nevada, San
Diego State, and Utah State to wrap up the year.
So and I think Utah State could be better. But

(07:23):
I mean, this is just it's a cream puff schedule, man,
There's no other way to plat, especially in the Mountain West.
I mean, I so I bet minus won thirty five
a couple of weeks ago. I I agree on I
agree on this one, I certainly do. I mean, outside
of Notre Dame game, this team should be eleven.

Speaker 1 (07:38):
To one eleven, one eleven one team.

Speaker 4 (07:40):
Yeah, any other loss would be a bad loss. Yeah,
they got room for one of them. The conference USF or.

Speaker 2 (07:48):
The air Force game could be trippy. Air Force always
plays them super tough, like that might be the game
that I think.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
I think air Force is good this year. I just
can't get out. We're looking at like minus two hundred
over five, right, so like yeah, yeah, go there.

Speaker 5 (08:03):
But I like air Force, Okay, probably one of the
probably have the best defensive linemen in Dion Washington in
the league as well.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
Yep, transfer from I think the Rainbows one hundred percent.

Speaker 2 (08:14):
All right, So there you go. So that's Boise State. Uh,
I don't have a ton in this conference. I will
hand it off to the next play for you. Guys.
We talked about air Force. My strongest take in the
Mountain West is air Force over That's what I like.
I think the numbers kind of while ago to the
number has been gone hit.

Speaker 1 (08:35):
Now then where did you bet it?

Speaker 2 (08:36):
I bet minus won twenty over five and a half,
So that that was the bat numbers.

Speaker 1 (08:41):
Some places are going to be two twenty.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
That's that's the only that's the only bet I've made
in the Mountain West outside the Boise State game. The
only other one I'm considering and considering is a fun
little bet on New Mexico under because they've lost everything.
But outside that, and and San Diego stay two, I
think they've lost a lot, I know, but I don't

(09:03):
have any strong takes outside of that. So Jewels, I'll
turn it over to you. I know you have another
take in the Mountain West. I'll let you go there
because I know I'm needing CT do not have a
take on this one.

Speaker 1 (09:12):
Yeah, I did play some San Jose State.

Speaker 4 (09:16):
I think that they're the second best team in the conference,
so I played them a couple of ways. I did
plus money on the over seven and a half wins,
and I played them at they were at one point
in time on DK Sports. BUTOK, plus two twenty to
make the conference title game. I like these make the
conference title game bets, you know, just because a lot
of times you bet a conference title because you think

(09:38):
they're gonna get there, and now you can literally bet
them to get there. And it was plus two twenty,
they went down to plus one ninety. They're now plus
one eighty. I think that's fine. All these are plus
money bets on them being successful. I like this Spartans team.
I think more than I can say about the roster
I can say about the schedule. Week two, they're at Texas.
They're gonna get smoked. But again, like I just talked

(10:00):
about Boise these are good measuring stick games, and you
get that early in the season to kind of polish yourself.

Speaker 1 (10:06):
A little bit.

Speaker 4 (10:06):
There they're they're big eleven twelve point favorites Central Michigan
that Thursday opener.

Speaker 1 (10:11):
And then here's the schedule. They go to Texas. You're
gonna get smoked there.

Speaker 4 (10:14):
Then you get a buy to reset Idaho at Stanford,
who we know I'm down on. If you listen to
our last episode, New Mexico at Wyoming at Utah State,
by Hawaii at Home, Air Force at Home at Nevada
at San Diego State, Fresno State, I think the schedule
just sets up really yep yep. And so they bring

(10:36):
plenty of guys back six on each side of the ball.
They're a veteran enough team, they're a strong enough coach
team that I think this should be an eight nine
win team that probably faces Boise State in that title game.
There's other teams capable if they're not there, I won't
be stunned. Maybe another team surprises and wins nine or
so games, but San Jose State, I feel pretty strongly

(10:59):
get to eight wins and you can get plus money
on that.

Speaker 2 (11:02):
Yeah. My only concern about about San Jose State. They
had that game at Texas. That's like an auto loss.

Speaker 1 (11:08):
I mean, I know there's definitely a sharfing loss. The schedule,
the game.

Speaker 2 (11:13):
They always struggle in Laramie like forever and always have
always struggled in Laramie forever. So I don't love the
Wyoming game for them, and then the Nevada San Diego
State back to back also, like I don't. I don't
love the way their schedule breaks, like they got the
Wyoming Utah State back to back.

Speaker 4 (11:31):
Although, like, so let's give him, let's give him a
Texas loss, let's give him a split on Wyoming Utah
State yep. And let's give him a split on Nevada
San Diego State yep. That's three losses.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
Yep.

Speaker 4 (11:43):
Now you can drop another and you're over. Plus money's
available too, yeah plus one ten.

Speaker 2 (11:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (11:48):
Yeah, sorry, I didn't hear you say that.

Speaker 2 (11:50):
Look, I get it. I'm I'm not I'm not against it.
I just I don't have a strong take on it. Honestly,
That's that's the way I feel. I don't have a
strong take on on a lot of the a lot
of the Mountain West this year, guys.

Speaker 5 (12:03):
But I think one team we should touch on, Dan,
because I'm sure you'll have something to say about them too,
because it's just a highly talked about team right now.
With Dan Mullen taken over as the head coach for
the Run Rebels, I mean they return virtually no starters,
and I get it. I mean they still have like
they hit the portal hard right pards like and you
have some good uh transfers coming in from power for conferences,

(12:27):
but like between Colandria, the triggerman that was at Virginia
the last two years who I thought was a complete
disaster and the Michigan transfer orgy. Uh. They haven't named
the starter yet, right, I think that they're still vying
for the job. I don't think Mullen has named it yet.
Can you confirm that, Dan.

Speaker 2 (12:45):
Yeah, I have not seen that.

Speaker 4 (12:46):
I've not seen everybody that they got the transferred in
as like a player that really let down where they were, that.

Speaker 5 (12:52):
Really let down where they were or really couldn't hack
it right. So that's that's why they're they're off to
the Mountain West.

Speaker 4 (12:58):
There was a voter the first the peat pole came
out since the last time we did this podcast, there's
a voter that voted U n l V twelfth in
the nation.

Speaker 1 (13:06):
Yeah. That's yeah, that's wild that even has a job.
But Dan, I mean you you.

Speaker 2 (13:14):
I heard you.

Speaker 5 (13:15):
Look at the schedule, right, I mean, they get U
c l A at home. They're gonna lose. They're gonna
lose that game they gotta play. They get Air Force
year team at home. They're at Boise at Colorado State.
H I don't think the WYI games roll the balls
out there when they're over eight and a half. I
think that's hard for this team with the first year coach,

(13:38):
a lot of first year players, new trigger man. After
everything that that team did last year, to go nine
and three, I think that's a little aggressive.

Speaker 2 (13:46):
And they also bring in the they do bring in
the quarterbacks. Coach Mohowa State Corey Dennis is going to
be the Overgota. Zach Garnett is going to be the
DC for them. I'm not a bowling guy.

Speaker 1 (14:00):
I've never been Mullen guy.

Speaker 2 (14:02):
I mean, Calandria seems like at least he has like
starting experience. He's a gunslinger, he's like perfect for Mullen.
I don't get the orders.

Speaker 5 (14:10):
He's kind of a little pitchy Dan, he really is.
I don't get the like in that conference in the
ACC he got lit up in the ACC. Dan, he
that kid cannot take a hit.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
And you guys know how I feel about the.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
That's why I brought it up.

Speaker 2 (14:26):
Is garbage. They also lose Ricky White and Jacob Jaesus,
who's by far their their two best wide receivers, so
you know they completely turn over the offensive line too.
Uh So there, Yeah, I I I don't like Mullen
teams at all. So if you're if you're telling me
that you want to fade a Dan Mullen team, by
all means not a not a not a no doubt

(14:48):
in my mind, now, bury Oedom obviously coming in. I
mean that's you know, Uh, I'm sorry, Burrio, I'm obviously
going out. Excuse me, that's a problem.

Speaker 5 (14:58):
I think Mullin's gonna be kind of a sh term fix,
kind of like uh Odom was partner I don't do
you really see him there for a long time. I
think he just wants to get his foot back in
the door. Yeah you know what I mean, see what
he could do and then see see where he could
go from there.

Speaker 2 (15:13):
Yeah, I mean he was, he was doing a ton
of media and now he's obviously moving over to UNLV.
I think it's gonna be I mean, it's an interesting fit.
I I'm not a bullling guy, like I'm just I'm not.
I never have been a bulling guy. So this is
gonna be interesting fit. I do think Calandria fits what
he wants to do offensively. The schedule them for though, though,
guys like at boise.

Speaker 1 (15:35):
U c l A at my I forgot that one.
That's a tough one too.

Speaker 2 (15:39):
And then they have a bye and then they go
to Laramie, and that Laramie game is before air Force
Air Force, right, And I also think they have they're
at Calado State later in the year when it's fucking
freezing cold, they still have to face they still have
to face Hawaii might be better this year the end
of the year at Reno. I mean again, I'm talking myself.

(16:00):
I'm talking to myself half to I mean, this is good.

Speaker 1 (16:02):
This is why we do this.

Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, I mean like.

Speaker 1 (16:04):
Listening to Dan ramble about how every single game is
so difficult.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
I mean, dude, they have a pretty difficult schedule. I
agree with that.

Speaker 1 (16:12):
I'm the one who brought this up. I agree.

Speaker 2 (16:14):
I mean, to be fair, who were their schedule is
pretty there's.

Speaker 1 (16:18):
This is all new kids playing together here.

Speaker 4 (16:20):
If you have a win total of eight and a half,
and like you just said, I was gonna say, you
have this entire new group of players that have generally
let down throughout their careers. Like you gotta win a
lot of games, and there's not layups on the schedule,
so you.

Speaker 5 (16:34):
Gotta figure Boise and the u c l A are
pretty much probably losses.

Speaker 1 (16:39):
Right, Yeah, you're at Boise.

Speaker 2 (16:42):
Yeah you get.

Speaker 1 (16:44):
Is gonna go in there and want to make a
freaking statement. I would think, right, Boise is an auto loss.

Speaker 2 (16:49):
The u c l A game feels, I mean, it's
gonna be it's a home game for UCLA and.

Speaker 1 (16:54):
Vegas, and you know, yeah, you and is gonna be
dogs in that game. L favor of that game.

Speaker 5 (16:59):
So I don't know, I might be talking to myself
into UNLV on their eight and half right now, and.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
Then they have two weeks off and then they go
to fucking Miami, Ohio, all right, which is a good
MAC team. Like d Kwan finn is the fucking quarterback there.

Speaker 5 (17:13):
This I keep forgetting he's back at this conference. That's
why after that they.

Speaker 2 (17:18):
Have another buy and then they go to fucking Layer
of Me before they face Air Force Boise State. Like,
I don't know, dude, Their schedule is brutal. They're not
winning nine games.

Speaker 1 (17:28):
No, I don't. I don't see it. I don't see
the path.

Speaker 2 (17:30):
No, I don't see it either.

Speaker 1 (17:32):
I mean, Dan, they lost.

Speaker 5 (17:33):
Three games last year. And remember, you know, our good
friend Rex Byers was all love this team so much. Oh,
UNLV running Rebels.

Speaker 2 (17:42):
They're so good.

Speaker 1 (17:42):
I mean, they went nine and three last year, and you're.

Speaker 5 (17:45):
Gonna tell me they're gonna reciprocate that this year with
the first year head coach Dan Mullen who's been out
of the game for a while, and all new players.

Speaker 1 (17:52):
I don't see it.

Speaker 4 (17:53):
I just want to reiterate that my favorite bet here
is Boys to win the conference because I think after
this rant that you two are on, people are thinking
that UNLV under is the strongest bet in this conference,
because you guys have been going on this.

Speaker 1 (18:06):
No, I agree with you. Boise's my strongest here too.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
I agree. I'm just saying it was just it was.
It was just an interesting thing because I I have
not bet unlv under, but I think I have to
bet you NLV under now. I think that's gonna do.
Absolutely have to be a bet.

Speaker 1 (18:19):
All right, next conference, let's move on.

Speaker 2 (18:21):
Let's move on from the mountain lest let's move over
to another conference. That about this. I have literally no
takes about this conference. I'm still diving into it, to
be honest with you, because I think there's a lot
of moving pieces in this one. My one, I'll give
you my one take. I think UTEP might be decent conference. USA. Jules,
you and CT have a bet that you guys both

(18:42):
like in this conference as well. Tell me about it.

Speaker 1 (18:44):
I started on Boise, you can start on this.

Speaker 2 (18:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (18:47):
I mean it's not a strong play for me, Dan,
and it's it's pretty freaking square.

Speaker 2 (18:52):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (18:53):
And it's liberty. Uh.

Speaker 5 (18:54):
When the when the conference, I just think they're so
head over heels above everybody else. Power ratings will that,
especially with what happened to this team last year with
the high expectations, and they really didn't come out to
anywhere near where everybody thought they would be at all,
not even close. I mean, the talent is there, and

(19:16):
the rest of the conference the talent isn't there. So
I think going into the season that you're betting Liberty
right now to win the conference. I don't think you're
getting a better number at any point than you are
now at like plus one ten plus one fifteen. So
Liberty to win Conference USA is a play for me
because you go down the board here, I mean, the

(19:39):
next best odds is Western Kentucky Okay plus four to
sixty partner. After that it's LA Tech plus nine fifty
Jacksonville State plus eleven hundred. The drop off is so significant.
I just think Liberty is just so far head over
heels better than everybody in that conference that you're never
gonna get plus.

Speaker 4 (19:59):
Money again the rest the year. So these are the
kind of you say it's a square bet. These are
the smaller conferences are I think where you want to
be more square because there's generally one of these teams
that really stands out and if you're gonna bet them
to win the conference. You know, two teams make the game,
and all you need to do is make the game

(20:20):
to make money essentially, So there's just they would have
to completely let down and two other teams be well
ahead of expectations for them for Liberty to not make
this game. So that's how I think of it. It's
just what are the chances that Liberty is not playing
in this game, just like Boise not playing in the game.

(20:41):
And I would say there's a pretty high chance they're
gonna play in the game. So if I can get
plus money, even money on them to win, I'll just
hedge that all back in December. I have no problem
doing that. It's not like I'm gonna sit here and
pretend to be a Conference USA expert.

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Same and I'm not either.

Speaker 4 (20:59):
It's just I feel that Liberty, from everything that we see,
is head and shoulders above the conference. It would be
stunning if they're not in the game, and I will
take them to win the conference and most likely play
a portion of that back when we get there. However,
I have been known to be a little bit stubborn
and just let it ride on the game, and I
think CT is probably the same way. But I'm betting

(21:23):
him to win the conference anything. You know, let's call
it minus one fifteen or better. I'm good with that.

Speaker 1 (21:28):
No, I mean plus money.

Speaker 5 (21:29):
I know it's not out where you work, but there
is plus money available on some legal shops and bobber
before you take over here, I do want to throw
this out there because there's a friend of ours that
we respect, and I'm looking at Brad powers as power
ratings right now. Okay, Liberty, he has power rated seventy eighth. Okay,

(21:50):
the next team in the Conference USA. Next highest team
that he has power rated is Western Kentucky at one
oh two.

Speaker 1 (21:59):
I mean that's just based off that. That just needs
to be a bet. It has to be a bet.

Speaker 4 (22:03):
Do you have third easily available? Yeah, it's a lot
of tack power rated one oh six. Okay, so you
got a good like twenty five and then it kind
of all they all kind of trickle in there.

Speaker 1 (22:14):
Yeah, you know, right right next to each other if
you will.

Speaker 2 (22:17):
So, So, if that's the case, and you guys are
looking at the Liberty schedule, they have a three game
I think they have a three game stretch, which is difficult.
You can argue four if you think Bowling Green is
good this year. I think they're gonna be down. But
Bowling at Bowling Green, James Madison at Old Dominion, who
might be down this year, and at utub if they
go four and oh in that stretch, aren't they making

(22:37):
the playoffs?

Speaker 1 (22:39):
Well, there'll be.

Speaker 4 (22:40):
I mean they could if they win their conference and
Boise wins their conference, boiss is still better.

Speaker 2 (22:46):
Yeah, but right, but if Liberty is twelve and oh,
you're putting them in.

Speaker 5 (22:50):
If Liberty is twelve and oh, I don't see how
and they they win Conference USA, I don't see how
you can.

Speaker 1 (22:55):
You can't leave them out.

Speaker 4 (22:55):
Yeah, you can't, especially because you could leave him out.
If Boise is twelve and one with a loss at
Notre Dame, right, or twelve and one white, which means
they win, they are the car. Yeah, twelve and one
with a loss of Notre Dame.

Speaker 1 (23:07):
You could. We can fight over this all night, but
there is.

Speaker 2 (23:10):
Between I think, honestly, in that case, I think both
of them get it.

Speaker 1 (23:13):
I think I was gonna say, I think they throw
them both in. Yeah, that's I mean, I think boys
will do the same thing.

Speaker 5 (23:18):
I don't think with the twelve team playoff right now,
Right even though it's a group of five and you
go twelve and zero when you're I don't think you
could get left out.

Speaker 2 (23:26):
I think there's so many teams this year. They have
freshman quarterbacks, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Like we're gonna see
the least amount of experience you've seen at quarterbacks and
like high standard programs in a long time.

Speaker 1 (23:39):
This could be a year.

Speaker 2 (23:40):
Where anything fucking happens, like I kind of, I truly
do believe that.

Speaker 4 (23:44):
Yeah, scheduled thing, the schedule thing that Dan's talking about
is that September sixth they're at Jacksonville State. September thirteenth,
that bowling Green.

Speaker 1 (23:54):
I don't think jackson stated host.

Speaker 4 (23:56):
James Madison at Old Dominion by at UTEP. I say
this to say that four out of five games are
on the road between September sixth and October eight.

Speaker 2 (24:07):
I know, I'm just I'm just playing hypothetical here. If
you can get fifteen to one better or fifteen to
one or better on the playoffs, I think that might
be worth it.

Speaker 5 (24:16):
Now.

Speaker 2 (24:16):
I think I think most points I'm seeing like ten
to one eleven. The one I'm just saying I'm throwing
it out there for fun. I think if you can
get fifteen the one or better, it might be worth
a little nibble on that, just just from where they are.

Speaker 1 (24:27):
Sure, Yeah, that's all. Sure, I think that that's a
good point.

Speaker 2 (24:30):
I don't have any by way, Liberty returns the fifteenth
most production in golf football this year against sixty six
percent Poise.

Speaker 1 (24:37):
Eight starters on each eight starters on each side of
the ball.

Speaker 2 (24:39):
Boise State number nine. It's sixty nine percent basically to
basically the two most group of five, with the exception
of Kennesaw State, who returns.

Speaker 5 (24:47):
Like everyone love the coach too, love Chadwell yeap, just
just such a he's just a good coach that fits.

Speaker 1 (24:54):
This conference as in this in this team perfectly.

Speaker 2 (24:56):
Great Iren, Yeah great, Ire all right, So do you
guys have any any other takes in Conference USA?

Speaker 1 (25:02):
That's all I got there, Partner, absolutely not.

Speaker 2 (25:05):
Okay, all right, let's move over to another conference. I
don't have a ton to think about, but I think
this one's interesting at least in terms of pricing here, uh,
the AAC Conference. Guys, any strong takes in this one?
Right now? Tulane four to one, UTSA four to twenty,

(25:25):
Navy four seventy, Memphis five to one, South Florida five
fifteen in a major drop off, Army eleven to one,
North Texas thirteen to one, ECU fifteen to one, and
an e massive drop off to FAU at fifty five
to one. The rest probably not worth talking about, although
Charlotte's interesting. They brought in a shitload of guys from
Ohio who just won the MAC. I don't know how

(25:48):
all if the conference is all that much better than
MAP but MAC, but nonetheless, Tulane gets Jake Retz laugh.
I mean, simple as that, like, do you guys believe
that this is a team that all of a sudden
can win a bunch of games? I mean, he's he
moves over to Gila. As simple as that. He's the best.

Speaker 5 (26:10):
I mean he was going to be a starting trigger
man at a top twenty five team preseason and a
power for I mean, yeah, I think that that's worth noting.

Speaker 2 (26:19):
Brendan. Brendan Sullivan gets hurt. Yeap, So Retslov comes in
and Red better. Redslav is better, oh for sure, definitely better,
and so Retslav is going to start here. I mean,
Utsa is great Navy I'm sure is going to be
good again this year.

Speaker 5 (26:37):
Our buddy Captain k Man has been screaming from the
mountaintops about Navy again.

Speaker 2 (26:42):
I get it, I get it. I mean I guess
saying good any any strong takes here, guys, I don't
have anything strong. I just think that the redslav stuff
like immediately puts them into why are you fucking kidding me?
A territory. They're four to one right now. I think
five to one probably be the press in for but
I think that's probably where i'd go. I'd, you know,

(27:03):
right now, eight and a half heavily juiced to the
under on the winds total. I don't have anything, you know,
I don't have anything whatever, But I'll probably end up
on some two lane AAC championship, you know, at like
five to one if I can find it.

Speaker 4 (27:17):
Any This is one of those spots where to make
the game. Type of markets probably matter, Yeah, because sure,
if you can get good plus money on them to
get there, I think that's valuable. I'll say this and
then you guys can can finish the whole conference. I
have no AAC bets.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (27:37):
I will sit, I will sit. Okay, then we'll all
sit the segment.

Speaker 4 (27:40):
Now, one thing I'll say is Memphis hosts Arkansas the
week before Arkansas host Notre Dame. Yes, great look ahead spot.
Memphis is going to be a dog to an SEC team.
I have that as a spot where I want to
bet Memphis as a home dog. Otherwise I will sit
back and guys can finish the conference.

Speaker 1 (28:01):
I mean, I mean Caveman is not wrong.

Speaker 5 (28:03):
Like when you look at it Navy on paper, I
mean they return almost everybody on offense and Horrorvath who is.

Speaker 1 (28:09):
Just absolutely filthy, uh last year.

Speaker 5 (28:11):
So they get a new OC there, and I mean
they're gonna they're gonna have the firepower like they did
last year. It's not your your grandfather's Navy. Still right, No,
I completely agree.

Speaker 2 (28:24):
I mean the the team that I've that I keep
hearing about this year is is South Florida in that conference.
And I think that there's a lot of people who
are very sharper like.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
That big On. I don't get that. I love Browne.
That makes sense to me. Damn, Maybe you can't because
I don't see it with Brown.

Speaker 2 (28:39):
So Brown and Archie they're both back, like I think
Archie is not as good as Brown. I think he
has the mobility. Brent Brown got hurt, he couldn't do anything.

Speaker 1 (28:49):
Brown is going to be the starter.

Speaker 2 (28:50):
Yeah, I mean, but they get bring back four to
five on the offensive line. Uh, they need some guys
in the wide receiver room to step up. I mean,
I think the offense takes a step forward defensively, they
lose they do lose some quality, need you know, they
they need to replay some key contributors. But still, you know,
probably being forward. I think they're they're better and and

(29:11):
Golas has been really really good there. So I think
they they kind of a shot to compete outside of
the non con Their schedule is really easy, Like they
don't face two Lane. They do face Memphis on the road,
but Memphis and Navy on the road, but they get
Utsa at home. And I mean they avoid most of
the big dogs in that conference. That's all. So I

(29:34):
think South Florida is like the big the big hot
lotto ticket that everyone loves in that conference right now.

Speaker 5 (29:39):
So anyway, well, I mean I still don't agree with
Boise only laying six on the on the road that right,
It's just.

Speaker 1 (29:46):
That's the one thing I was going to add is
that I don't get the USF.

Speaker 2 (29:49):
Well, like I can love well, well, I can tell
you it's the the projected weather for that is like
it's gonna be like fucking a million degrees.

Speaker 5 (29:56):
Yeah, yeah, and I get that, but that that that
just means that, like Boise just kids can't go down
there and take care of business because isn't you I
don't know.

Speaker 4 (30:04):
The first game though, Like, isn't USF. I get there,
they're doing camp in that weather, but like, aren't they
going to be gassed too? And like Boise is playing
at another level affect two teams not one. It's yeah,
like they're both playing and US first. It's the first game.
Everyone's going to get tired. It's the same thing as
like the Miami Notre Dame game, and it's Miami, but

(30:28):
both teams.

Speaker 5 (30:28):
Are going to get gassed in that heat, right, isn't
Boise I think I read something like that. They're practicing inside,
they're turning the heat off. I'm sure they're prepping.

Speaker 4 (30:36):
Like that's technically this is their second hardest game of
the year behind Notre Dame. Absolutely, and it's the opener,
so they have for it. Then open ten and a half.

Speaker 2 (30:45):
Right, yep, no again, I'll be on Boise week one,
I know, I obviously I don't. I don't know if
I'll be on Bois, but it would not shock me.

Speaker 1 (30:54):
If Dan's going to be on US.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
No I won't. I will certainly not be on usf
No again, I don't money line, No, no, no, I'm
not on the fucking hype week one. Man. That that
that's definitely a thing Lift does not do. I do
not bet hype early on. I usually try and fade
that ship as much as humanly.

Speaker 5 (31:12):
I know one thing that I will be doing differently
this this week, because, as the three of us will
remember real quick, Week one was college last year was
one of my worst weeks of the entire year. I
think I was one in seven. And yes, of course
I did come out on top for college football season.

Speaker 4 (31:31):
No, no, it was worse for me Week one after
horrible Week one one two? Yeah, I mean Week one
last year. Remember we went out to stats last year
and started off great.

Speaker 1 (31:42):
Iowa came back.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
Had that awesome covered State covered.

Speaker 4 (31:45):
That's right, Okay, that's right. I had two state first
two weeks. Oklahoma State helped and then they did dog
ship the rest of thee we keep bringing back that
night mare of a team, but there was a good
college football season after a hellhole of Week one and
Week two.

Speaker 1 (32:00):
For me, I guess yeah.

Speaker 5 (32:02):
The long and short of it I'm trying to say
is I'm not going to have as many crazy as
many graze as I did last year.

Speaker 1 (32:09):
Week one, Week one, We're going to learn a lot.

Speaker 5 (32:11):
Bober Jules and I were talking about that dinner tonight.
We are going to learn a lot. I agree, because
there's just so many marquee matchups where you're really going
to learn who's who's here, who's here to play this
year in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 2 (32:25):
All right, let's move over to these sun Belt guys.
Fun Belt, sun Belt and a conference that I would
argue has been, in my opinion, arguably better than the
ACC the past few years. I don't know if that's say,
not exactly a popular take amongst most college football fans,
but nonetheless, I think the ACC blows and the sun
Belt has been notoriously getting better each and every year.

(32:50):
I think there's no no doubt that this year will
continue to be the same. With Texas State, you know,
team teams like again Texas State, Louisiana James Madison, who
I think have all gotten better. You can argue that
Troy as well, another team that's gotten better in that conference.
Even Georgia Southern as well. So let's get into it first. Jules,

(33:12):
I'll start with you an he takes in the Sun
Belt this year.

Speaker 1 (33:15):
Yeah, so I'm gonna roll these all into into one.

Speaker 2 (33:18):
Okay.

Speaker 4 (33:19):
Now, I think the thing that has gotten the most coverage,
at least on my Twitter timeline in the Sun Belt
is the Marshall and Southern miss combo deal. Here, everybody
from Marshall head coach, and twenty plus players right included,
go from this really solid Marshall team that made the

(33:41):
conference title game made a bowl game over to Southern Mississippi.
Now I bet these early and didn't put them out.
I bet Marshall under five and a half at minus
one twenty too. I bet Southern Mississippi.

Speaker 1 (33:56):
Right at no. No, I got it. It was four
and a half plus money.

Speaker 2 (33:59):
It was four and as Jesus Okay, So here's.

Speaker 4 (34:02):
How far off I am. I bet at over four
and a half at minus one fifty, which is a
great number because now it's like two twenty yep. So
this is a rare time where I think two wind
totals are correlated. You can almost never say that. But
it's taking poppers agree, which yet Popper's agreeing with me
on a parlay. Wow, we're taking a Marshall two. He's

(34:25):
not gonna, but I have to at this point. So
Marshall is taking a good team and putting the whole
thing on Southern Miss. On DraftKings, last I looked, you
can parlay Marshall under five and a half and Southern
Miss over four and a half was plus one thirty three.
So I'm gonna put them together at that and say

(34:48):
that they tie together.

Speaker 2 (34:51):
Again. I don't think they're directly.

Speaker 4 (34:53):
Not directly, but there's something. There has to be something
to that, Like coach and twenty five, I have thirty
players from one team to the other. At this point,
that's the only way you can do it unless you
want to lay minus two hundred on something.

Speaker 2 (35:08):
Yeah. So again, Marshall brings in Tony Gibson to be
the head coach. Gibby, who I'm just gonna say this.
I think this dude fucking is a moron. I think
he's absolutely terrible at his job. I don't know why
the fuck they hired him. I know that he has,
like Marshall knnecks and whatever. I think this is going
to be a borderline disaster higher for Marshall, and they
have very very high standards for everything they do. Rod Stewart,

(35:30):
the OC from Jacksonville State, comes in to run the offense.
Shannon Morrison, the defensive backs coach, is now the DC.
I think it's a fucking mess, guys, as Jules, as
you said, like they bring in Zion Turner from Jacksonville
State and Jack Clarity from South Dakota.

Speaker 4 (35:46):
Marshall has nothing left. They've been ripped to the studs
as much as like any team to think of.

Speaker 2 (35:51):
Quarterback gone, top six guys by target all gone, including
the including or sorry, the wide receivers, the tight end.
Toby Payne is back, though one starter back on the
offensive line for Marshall. Running back here, running room, running
back room decimated by the portal, so basically they have
to replace everything. Same with the defensive line. Almost every

(36:12):
starter is gone. They got three returning guys on the
defensive line who got snaps, not not started, just snaps.
Linebacking no one returning secondary Green, Nick Knight and Smith
are back at the cornerback spot and knows we're good.
That's one starter back for the entire defense.

Speaker 4 (36:31):
They lose, not just starters, but then the guys playing
haven't played right and they have.

Speaker 2 (36:37):
To come in with a brand new head coach coming
over from Encias State, who has to bring in his guys.
I mean it's gonna be This is gonna be brutal. Meanwhile,
and by the way, they lose. They're known for their
defense rules up and Marshall was known for for years.
Charles Huff's guy who is still the defense Well, he
went to Southern Miss, which is why you're talking about
the corral. Every year. They bring in Blake Anderson, who

(36:58):
was the head coach at Utah State couple years ago.
He now runs the offense there. Jason Seymour, the defensive
coordinator from Marshall. He comes over to Southern Miss. They
bring in everyone from the Southern They bring in Brayln Baxton,
the quarterback is going to be there as well. They
also bring in Blake Lady from UAB wide receiver. They

(37:19):
bring in a bunch of dudes from Marshall Montgomery and Metcalf.
They bring in Nunnery's back on the offensive line, but
who they bring in a bunch of dudes from Marshall
as well as other guys in the power for so
like you and I are, you and I are very
much on the same page here defensively, they did the
exact same thing outside the line backing room they took
they did. They added a shitload here, guys, I mean

(37:40):
they added a ton. So it's almost completely new roster,
but half of it is fucking Marshall. So who was
who won the conference last year?

Speaker 1 (37:49):
Exactly?

Speaker 2 (37:49):
So I don't get it. I mean, to me, I
pointed them seventy to one to win the conference. That's
down the twenty to one I still think, and you
can find better prices out there.

Speaker 1 (38:00):
I still think they were seventy to one, seventy to
one Southern Miss.

Speaker 2 (38:04):
Wow, Yeah, I still think that's too long.

Speaker 1 (38:08):
I agree. I got a little twenty five to one
in pocket on Southern Miss and I was happy about that.

Speaker 2 (38:14):
Yeah. Well, when I when I played the seventy, of course,
that that was the That was the Windal price.

Speaker 1 (38:19):
That was the win.

Speaker 2 (38:19):
When I played the Windal, that was the price just
to give you an idea. Marshall is twenty five to
one to win the conference. Southern Miss is twenty to one.
I mean it's well, that makes no sense. It makes
no fucking sense. Well again, Southern Miss over five and
a half. I'll just go through the schedule very quickly.
Mississippi State to open the year, they're eleven point dogs.
You guys think they can win?

Speaker 4 (38:39):
Oh? I played, so yeah I did. I did plus
thirteen on them in that game. And yeah, like anything
plus miss anything, Yeah, fourteen alf would be great. I
have thirteen anything double digits I'm fine with on that game.
And that's one that if you're doing like an underdog
money line or an underdog money line, parlay on a
couple teams like that. Southern Miss Week one, they have

(39:01):
a home game against Mississippi State on ESPN. Yep, they're
gonna be hyped for that. That is one to throw
in your Week one underdog like money line dark lay.

Speaker 2 (39:12):
Yeah, I agree, I agree, Jackson State, we need to
win app State home Week three against app Stated got decimated.
They have a new coach and knew everything. I think
Southern missis is gonna kill them at law Tech I
like them in that game. I like them at home
Bridge Jacksonville State. Their conference schedule is very difficult. At
Georgia Southern at Louisiana back to back weeks, tough. Monroe

(39:36):
at home is a win. That's a brutal Monroe team.
At Arkansas State, I think is a tough game. But
they get Texas State at home and Troy at home
and in South Alabama, so they have to face the gauntlet,
no doubt about it. They have the hardest, the hardest
schedule in the conference. But Jackson State, app State, LA Tech,
Jacksonville jack State. I have them beating Monroe, I have

(39:58):
them beating Arkansas State, and they'll absolutely probably win another
game or two in the conference. I have them like
good for like seven maybe eight wins. I think they
I think, I think I think they're live. Week one
too agains Mississippi State, who is just bad. I mean
we saw who di Mississippi State lose to last year
week one, I think it was most of the year

(40:23):
two and either way, they just they're just bad. They're
just bad. And and I think Southern miss is gonna
kill the Meanwhile, Marshall Other on the opposite end at
Georgia open the year, Missouri State probably win, Eastern Kentucky
probably win. After that, here we go. It's brutal at
Middle Tennessee, at Louisiana. I don't think they're winning either

(40:44):
one of those. Homebress Old Dominion, not great homebress. Texas
State at Coastal Home versus James Madison. Now here's a
game that they can win, I think at Georgia State,
but it's still in Georgia State at app State Home
versus Georgia Southern. I don't think they're gonna be favored
in almost any of those games. I don't think they'll

(41:05):
be favored in any of those games outside of maybe
Georgia State, and that's still on the road. I think
this is probably a two to three win team here, Marshall,
I think it's gonna be a longer year. I am
on the under for Marshall. I am on the over
for Southern miss With you and then my only other
thought in this conference, I'm not gonna have anything. I
think Texas State is being devastatingly again undervalued in conference.

(41:29):
Seven to one. I think there's better prices out there.
There's nine to one out there. James Madison lost a
lot last year. They are the favorite. I get it,
They're still They're probably the most talented team in the conference.
Two seventy is just a bad price. I think Texas
State seven to one. I think Georgia Southern, who I
think got better ten to one, are both decent looks.
And if you really want another long shot, if need

(41:51):
this conference, if you're crazy and you want another long shot,
Troy got significantly better in my opinion, thirteen to one.
I think one of those three teams is probably making
it into the conference championship. I don't think Southern miss
will because of the schedule. I just had a bet
at because I thought that price was just fucking loopy stupid.
But yeah, I this is gonna be a really, really,
really interesting Sunbell year. I'm this is my favorite conference

(42:15):
in the group of five. I'm excited for this conference
this year. The only pretty much all the conference good
besides Marshall Monroe in Georgia State.

Speaker 4 (42:23):
The only thought that I'll add is that I kind
of like old Dominion. Phil Steele's got him third in
the conference. The win total, you either have to go
uh five and a half at like close to minus
two hundred DraftKings were now six and a half plus
one thirty to the over. The schedule's tough first three weeks.
They have it at Indiana at Virginia Tech coming out

(42:45):
of a bye. After Virginia Tech, they host Liberty, then
they host Coastals off of bye. Then they go to
Marshall Marshall's off of bye. I still we know how
we feel about Marshall. And then they go to at
James Madison and one of the final games at Georgia Southern,
who is projected second to the conference. So the schedule's
tough on Old Dominion. But I like the team, I
like the roster. It's just if can they get there?

(43:08):
I at a juiced five and a half, I don't
know about minus two hundred, but at a juice five
and a half, I think Old Dominion, if you're projecting
them third in the conference, can be a five hundred
bowl team.

Speaker 1 (43:19):
But that's all the rest that I got here.

Speaker 2 (43:20):
I didn't love Colton Joseph. That's my only thing. Wilson
transfers out. I didn't love Colton Joseph. I know he
was he completed a lot of passes, but twenty turnover
worthy plays like.

Speaker 1 (43:31):
That's hopefully that improves.

Speaker 2 (43:34):
Took eighteen sacks and then it lost every They lost
their top six pass catchers from the wide receiver in
ten end rum. That's to me, that's the big thing there.
In their secondary too. They lost their entire starting secondary.
So everything else on the team looks great. It's just
lost the whole secondary, lost the whole wide receiver room.
If they rebuild that jewels, they'll be fine. That's my concern.

Speaker 5 (43:56):
Race, I just I don't know, has been going nuts.
Maybe you think that you can put it on silent,
going non.

Speaker 1 (44:04):
Probably a good idea.

Speaker 5 (44:05):
My phone's on silent, all right, all right, Yeah, So
I don't have any plays here in this conference. I
thought you guys did a good job. But two teams
that we haven't hit on that I feel like we
should say something. Is so, I have a really good
friend Dan, who I went to Baylor with grad school,
and he is a beat writer for the Texas State Bobcats,
and a lot of people were really high on the

(44:26):
Bobcats this year, even with how much they lost. They
lost a ton in the portal twenty three. Twenty four
kids in the portal graduated twenty two seniors. Uh, this
is a team that really went remember Jewels, I'll bring
this game up. There's another one went toe to toe
with Arizona State. I don't know how they didn't win

(44:46):
that game.

Speaker 1 (44:47):
Blew it. I forget.

Speaker 5 (44:50):
I'm bringing up another bad memory of last year's and
I'm having Vietnam. Arizona State wound up being and they
were right there to whin they game right it that way,
Texas State should have.

Speaker 2 (45:01):
Been the Texas State wins that fucking game. I don't
think they probably not.

Speaker 1 (45:06):
I don't probably not.

Speaker 5 (45:09):
So he's down on them, you know, he even though
they have a ton of transfers coming in and and
decent power for transfers.

Speaker 1 (45:17):
He he doesn't see it this year.

Speaker 2 (45:19):
Uh.

Speaker 5 (45:19):
And then the other one is we should obviously touch
on James Madison and Matthew Sluka, who left you on
LV opted out, gets paid, He gets reunited with uh
Chesney who they used to be together back in Holy
Cross in the Massachusetts and our home state here. So
James mass and the favorite to win that that conference.

(45:40):
So but then again, just I have nothing there, but
just figured it's worth noting.

Speaker 2 (45:44):
Yeah, no, I I I I think I think that
that that's a an interesting one for sure. CT I mean, yeah, seriously,
I I still love Texas State and I still love them.
I still think they'll be very very good. I have no, no,
like super strong thoughts on them, but I still like

(46:05):
Texas State and I still think they'll be better than
your friend expects. But that's just my opinion. The sloop
is star again. They're just they're two seventy. Like it.
It's a ridiculous, ridiculous, ridiculous price. Outside of that, like
whatever is what it is.

Speaker 4 (46:18):
All right, So really quickly before we go pack two
and independence, I've pulled up a three team Week one
money line parlay all on underdogs that we have somewhat
discussed on this podcast. They're all G five week one underdogs.
It is three teams and on DK sportsbook it is
paying eighty seven to one on a money back parlay.

(46:41):
All right, ready, Dan says Buffalo, we've both taken seventeen.
Dan says, Buffalo is live against Minnesota. So Buffalo money
line Southern miss at home against Mississippi State on the
money line. Yep, here's the one that I don't know
if you guys are quite as on board with Toledo
is at Kentucky. Taledo has been bet down from twelve
and a half to eight and a half on k

(47:02):
sports books, seven and a half showing in the market.
I do think they came and Toledo. Listen to this
Toledo on the money line at DK, the splits nine percent.
Ninety one percent of the bets are on Kentucky to
win the game. Sixty one percent of the handle is
on Toledo to win the game. Sharp those three teams
to win is eighty seven to one. I've made much

(47:27):
dumber bets. Are we putting one hundred pizza dollars? I
think I think we could, probably, we could, probably probably should.
That's thunder if you have if you have a bonus
bet sitting in your account entering college football Week one,
you put that on Buffalo's Southern Miss and Toledo to
win outright at eighty seven to one, and you sit

(47:50):
back and if it loses, it loses.

Speaker 2 (47:52):
It's not bad, okay. So just going through things, going
through things now, we did record this earlier, recording that
second part here because we kind of got into up.
I'm not sure if our mac preview got held over,
so I say, we quickly go over it again.

Speaker 1 (48:07):
Oh boy, we didn't say this part.

Speaker 2 (48:09):
Dan, I'm not sure. I'm not sure if our MAC
part got held over?

Speaker 1 (48:12):
Do we do?

Speaker 2 (48:13):
We do?

Speaker 5 (48:13):
Do we?

Speaker 2 (48:13):
Guys? Remember if we did the MAC first of the
Sunbell first?

Speaker 1 (48:17):
I did?

Speaker 2 (48:19):
Well, guess what our MAC preview didn't carry over? So
quickly tell me what you got. Your guys thoughts are
on Buffalo C.

Speaker 5 (48:26):
Yeah, so Buffalo over seven and a half minus one
ten is a play for me one unit to win
the MAC plus five point fifty.

Speaker 1 (48:35):
We talk about this all the time, at least Dan
and I do.

Speaker 5 (48:37):
I'm a huge Lemo guy, and he knows how to win,
and he knows how to win manage a team in
that conference.

Speaker 1 (48:45):
He's perfect fit for for Buffalo.

Speaker 2 (48:48):
Uh.

Speaker 5 (48:49):
He comes back from from last year. UH goes six
and two in the MAC in his first year. I
think there's a really good chance that this team's in
the MAC title game. It's really going to come down
to the transfer at the triggerman position here, and that's
with Taekwon Roverson and he was a starter for Yukon
back in twenty twenty three. Started his career at Penn

(49:11):
State as a backup and then last year kind of
didn't play at all for he's a backup for k
State and the defense is gonna be a crew to
be reckoned with return a ton of starters, pick up
some key pieces in the transfer portal there and they
avoid playing Toledo, which Jules and I have talked about, and.

Speaker 1 (49:31):
They get there too.

Speaker 5 (49:32):
They get two really tough non conference games versus Yukon
and Troy this year at home. Also end the year
with Miami Ohio and Ohio they're both at home. So
I like Lembo as a coach. I think he's perfect
for this program and he's really been building it here.
I think over seven and a half is very attainable.

(49:53):
I think this is an eight to nine to ten
team win here. Get the cash over seven and a half,
and I think they probably in the MAC title game,
so plus five point fifty is as a play as well.

Speaker 2 (50:04):
I think they're live in every single game, including the
Minnesota game. At Minnesota, I don't I don't like that team.
I think they've lost way too much again, including our
boy Max Brozman, who just played very well in the
preseason game for the Minnesota Vikings. I think Buffalo is
live in every game they have Saint Francis and Kent State.
I mean they have a tough schedule. I'm not gonna

(50:25):
say you're n tell they they don't have a tough schedule,
but UMass Akron, Bowling, Green, Kent State, Saint Francis. That
should be five easy wins and sorry in Central Michigan six.
You should have six wins right there. If you can't
beat two of Minnesota, Troy, Yukon, Eastern Michigan and Miami,

(50:46):
Ohio and Ohio, we have a problem. Then they're not
as good as we thought. But I think this is
an over team too. I agree.

Speaker 4 (50:53):
Yeah, obviously we're working in reverse here. I just gave
it out an eighty seven to one part lay that
includes Buffalo. So yeah, I'm with CT. I'm over seven
and a half on Buffalo. I'm Buffalo to win the Mac,
and I'm plus seventeen on Buffalo as a real play
Week one against Minnesota. You can get that at minus
one twenty. I think going with the full seventeen is

(51:17):
I'm going that route over the sixteen and a half.
But obviously if we're sprinkling in some money line, then.

Speaker 1 (51:21):
We believe in them. The game.

Speaker 4 (51:22):
And I'll just also dish out the DK sportsbook splits
here because Buffalo is crazy sharp to win the MAC.
Most of these conferences have heavy favorites. Handle Buffalo has
thirteen percent of the tickets for forty seven percent of
the money to win the MAC. So better's very much
believe in the Buffalo bowls this season in the MAC.

Speaker 2 (51:44):
Yeah, I am, which is It's something I'll talk about.

Speaker 1 (51:49):
Toledo. I feel like it might be.

Speaker 4 (51:51):
Toledo, by the way, has half of the HANDLE for
only twenty two percent of the sorry excuse me, half
of the tickets for only twenty two percent of the
hand in that conference.

Speaker 2 (52:01):
Yeah, that's just that's too much my MAC take. I'm
on the under seven and a half wins on for
the Ohio Bobcats. They bring in or they lose coach
Tim Alban he goes to Charlotte. They bring in half
their team over the Charlotte. They do still have quarterback
Parker Navarro who was very good last year, and they
have they bring back ce bengera from Minnesota who went

(52:24):
from Ohio to Minnesota and now back from Minnesota to
Ohio because he sucked last year. They bring they promote
offensive coordinator Bryant Smith to their permanent head coach. I
did not think he was great, but at least there's
some offensive continuity there, but nonetheless lose a ton offensively
and defensively to the transfer portal and mostly to Charlotte.

(52:47):
I just think that this is gonna be like a
common theme here where they'll be good and they have
some flashy stuff, especially a quarterback and running back, but
the rest of the roster is really beat up, and
I'm very concerned about again going from a guy like
Alvin to a guy like Brian Smith. I mean, that's
just it feels like a very big leap for them.
I don't see them having a lot of success here.

(53:10):
I am on the under on the Ohio Bobcats and
the third best odds in the mac Toledo plus two
twenty Ohio plus three, forty, Buffalo five fifty, Miami six
six to one, Northern Illinois thirteen to one, Bowlden Green
thirteen to one, Western Michigan fourteen to one, and then
a whole bunch of after that. My one long shot.
I do like in this conference guys. I like Emu,

(53:30):
I like Chris Crane. I think the team is gonna
be better this year. I think they can. They were
able to actually hold on to a bunch of their
talent this year, guys, and so I do believe this
team is gonna be better. Chris Craide always has his
team up for big games, and I do think that
this is gonna be another one of those years where
he gets he gets his team ready for big games. Now,
obviously the lows Cole Slinder. That sucks, but they bring

(53:52):
in Noah Kim started at Colston Carolina, started in Michigan State.
I like him. I think he is He's going to
be a stud there, and so I'm I'm very very
pleased with what Eastern Michigan is building there. I think
they're gonna be better then than most people do. I
I know that, I know that it's a disagree but
I think quarterback quarterback upside here big one for them.

(54:13):
I think they could be better. I like I leaned
the over on them as well. But that's it.

Speaker 1 (54:17):
I don't have any Did we just have to redo
a conference and you added a play?

Speaker 2 (54:21):
I did, That's right, I didn't. We hadn't finished, We
hadn't finished the conference. We hadn't finished the conference when
we stopped. Okay, sure we hadn't finished the conference yet,
Julian Julien, All right, let's move on. Move over to
the pack two, guys, the Pack two quickly. Only two
teams to talk about here, Oregon State and Washington State.

(54:43):
Any thoughts from you guys on these two teams here?

Speaker 4 (54:46):
So we shared the news today amongst ourselves that a
true freshman at CAL is going to be the starting
quarterback over Devin Brown from Ohio State, which is relatively surprising.
I did bet some Cal under five and a half
a while ago. It was plus money. Now it's pretty schemed.
I discussed it really briefly on our last podcast. I
like that probably more now. That's obviously an acc team.

(55:09):
But I say this because Oregon State hosts CAL Week one.
That has gotten bet up a little bit. It's the
Beaver's laying three now. But seeing this news, now you've
got a true freshman quarterback going on the road to
Corvallas week one. I don't love with a team with
not a lot of talent. Yeah, I have nothing nice
to say about Oregon State, but I am kind of

(55:33):
thinking the minus three in this game because I have
a lot bad to say about Cal.

Speaker 2 (55:36):
You don't like, you don't like Meleek Murphy quarterback, Yeah,
quarterback from transfers. I like Murphy.

Speaker 1 (55:42):
Yeah, Like, they're fine.

Speaker 4 (55:43):
They're a team I didn't have like a real stance
or take on coming into the season, but I'm now
warming up to. Like the week one home game laying
a short number against Cal.

Speaker 1 (55:52):
Everybody thought Murphy was gonna be the horn saving grace, right.

Speaker 2 (55:55):
Yeah, I mean he was pretty good at Duke last year.

Speaker 4 (55:58):
Yeah, I agree, Yeah, it was pretty good. I'm probably
a good fit for the Leaves. I'm gonna bet this
like I'm yeah, I'm gonna wind up at organ Steam.
I like the way you're talking, right, and you're talking
me into it as well.

Speaker 2 (56:10):
Here I completely agree. I think I think we can
see if we can find some two and a half,
because it looks like there's some two and a half
out there too. I'm a little worried about the Oregon
State secondary, but this is going to be against a
true freshman in fucking Corvallius.

Speaker 1 (56:23):
That's yeah, make them prove it against the second I
mean Oregon.

Speaker 2 (56:26):
Struggles in fucking Corvallis is true freshman, Yeah, yeah, with
with basically nothing. I mean they've lost at they've lost
basically their entire offense. Yeah. I like that Bat Jewels,
I think I think that's a I think that's a.

Speaker 1 (56:38):
Pretty That's why we keep them around partners. I agree.
You know it's okay. How about this partner? Right? So
that's week one.

Speaker 5 (56:46):
Uh, and you got the l s U Clemson game
at seven thirty Eastern. That is the late night special
along with you might be together.

Speaker 2 (56:56):
We're going to be together for that. I'm excited for that.

Speaker 1 (57:01):
You t is eleven. Yes, it goes all night. Yes, Wow,
the show goes on. Wow.

Speaker 2 (57:06):
At least we'll be able to watch some games together.

Speaker 5 (57:08):
Why Arizona's so busy during the day. I got to
memory with pads.

Speaker 4 (57:12):
Remember, Yeah, I'm going to be sleeping at eleven, but
you guys can wake me up for the good parts.

Speaker 2 (57:18):
Well.

Speaker 1 (57:18):
As long as Clemson gets it done, that's all that matter.
That'll make me happy.

Speaker 2 (57:22):
I have the over in that game. I like over
fifty six in that game.

Speaker 1 (57:25):
So over is very sharp. It's got that up. I
mean it's fifty eight. It's fifty eight, fifty eight at
circa fifty seven.

Speaker 4 (57:33):
Well, Dan's got Southern miss seventy to one to win
the conference, and they're fourteen on the board.

Speaker 2 (57:37):
Partner said, I don't look, I don't think something mess
is gonna win. I just couldn't. I couldn't resist the number.

Speaker 1 (57:42):
I couldn't resist twenty five. Okay, Organs, I got nothing
else on either. The Wazoos pass pass.

Speaker 2 (57:48):
The Oregon State schedule, by the way, is absolutely fucking brutal,
like at Texas Tech, at Oregon back to back they
got they have to go to Washington State the final
week of the year.

Speaker 1 (57:58):
That that's all the more reason to out Week one
at home right and.

Speaker 2 (58:01):
In Washington State. Win total right now in Oregon State
six and a half, by the way, heavily juice to
the over. Washington's day over five and a half, heavily
juice to the under. I I know they lost my
tear and I know they lost and obviously lost to
row C. I still think this team could be decent.
I'm still a little bit lost in them. But they
brought in basically the entire South Dakota team. It's like

(58:23):
the entire South Dakota team basically is now in and
that's a that was a very good FCS team. I
I kind of think they're being a little bit slept
on here.

Speaker 4 (58:32):
You're talking to yourself on this one, BOPRAA. I just
watched C check his emails.

Speaker 2 (58:37):
All right, fine, I'll talk to myself. I did. I think.
I think Wazoo over five and a half is a
decent play. You get some four and a half in there.
I think Wazoo over four and a half would be
a bet for me. Cool. I have not seen that
number anymore. All Right, Finally, we already talked about Notre
Dame last week. You guys have anything else on on
the car situation there.

Speaker 5 (58:54):
I just think it's it's kind of that he doesn't
know what to do, he doesn't know who the team
is so talented that with the schedule, Dan, here's my
question to you, how much will the trigger man matter?

Speaker 2 (59:09):
I think it matters in certain games, Like I think
it's gonna matter again Week one for sure. Yeah, like
those games, but.

Speaker 1 (59:15):
Like in general, well, like A still lose that game
and still cruise to the playoffs. Yeah, after that game.

Speaker 4 (59:22):
After that game, they're favored by a touchdown or more
in every game they get to buy it. They get
to buy after Miami, and then they host Texas A
and m Minus seven is the DK Sportsbook game of
the year line and then they're double digits the rest
of the world. So I did I bet Notre Dame
early at minus one fifty five to make the college
football playoff. I did do an article on DK network
minus one eighty. I'm in for Notre Dame to make

(59:43):
the college football playoff at minus one eighty.

Speaker 2 (59:45):
Just so.

Speaker 4 (59:46):
Quarterback wise, okay, look, they just run the ball and
win the game, but they can. So the quarterback is whatever.
The running back room really quick. Running back room is
number two. I'm going phild Steel's unit rankings here. Running
back is number two, behind only Penn State that brings
back two studs. Notre Dame also brings back two studs.
Offensive line is number three on phild Steel. So those

(01:00:07):
two studs are gonna be running behind a great offensive line.
D line number four unit in the nation. Linebackers three
in the nation, DB's first in the nation. These are
the unit rankings that should equal out to roughly the
number one defense in the country. If you put those
years and you can hand the ball off and run.

Speaker 2 (01:00:28):
It, they have He has them as the number one rated, second.

Speaker 1 (01:00:31):
Number rated secondary head of Alabama and Clemson.

Speaker 2 (01:00:34):
They lose Watts, Clark, and Morrison. No fucking way are
they not.

Speaker 1 (01:00:38):
They have a new coordinator fucking away. All right, maybe
they're wrong, but a good defense. I agree, it's gonna
be a very good defense.

Speaker 2 (01:00:46):
They're just not the number one second. What seriously, Phil
Steele fucking washed? My god, I do agree. Offensive line
is gonna.

Speaker 1 (01:00:54):
Be coming on my podcast tomorrow. Phil Steele's washed.

Speaker 2 (01:00:57):
Ask him why he's so fucking washed. I do think
offense gets better. They have the best running back in
the country. But if they don't have a fucking quarterback
man and they can't stop the pass, and I don't know.
I'm just saying, look at the stew.

Speaker 4 (01:01:10):
We're going from the number one ranked secondary, which you
disagree with, to can't stop the pass.

Speaker 2 (01:01:15):
Fair enough, Okay, fair enough, fair enough. They're probably a
top ten secondary, to be fair. But they lost a lot.

Speaker 1 (01:01:22):
But still, I'm just saying I like them to make
the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (01:01:24):
Have you guys seen the schedule for them. It's a
little bit more difficult than you guys think. Miami to
lose any game.

Speaker 4 (01:01:32):
They lost the game that they were the biggest favorite,
the biggest favorite of the year.

Speaker 2 (01:01:36):
The text, would you guys be surprised if Elko got
revenge against them? Mhm, Saturday September thirteenth, freshman quarterback against
it against an SEC defense.

Speaker 1 (01:01:50):
Yeah, I guess I wouldn't be shocked.

Speaker 2 (01:01:51):
Then they have to go to Arkansas before they play Boise.

Speaker 4 (01:01:55):
Okay, I just tried to slip one quick bed in
and now's gonna argue with me?

Speaker 2 (01:01:59):
For they USC and Pittsburgh. I don't know.

Speaker 5 (01:02:02):
I think they're really talented. They are talented, and you know,
after losing that game in Northern Illinois in the run
they go on. I just think they're very well coached.
And it doesn't matter whether it's car you know, I
mean who's on their center there between the defense and
the run game, I mean they could they could pound you.

Speaker 2 (01:02:22):
I got it. I mean you're you're not wrong. Finally, Connecticut,
Connecticut any takes on them hard pass Okay, yeah, take it, Bob,
I lean over that. I'll just I'll give you that one.
I lean over. I think they're they're much improved.

Speaker 1 (01:02:34):
I make Buffalo slight favorite over them versus Yukon at home.

Speaker 2 (01:02:38):
I I agree slight favorite. But I think that's a
really good game.

Speaker 1 (01:02:42):
That's going to be a big game for for.

Speaker 2 (01:02:43):
The BO people they're playing Yukon make the playoffs because
they might because they're scheduled.

Speaker 1 (01:02:48):
Well, that's all right. They ended the year strong versus
U n C once of that game.

Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
All right, anything else from you guys? We have now
touched on the A, A C. Right, we touched on
Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt,
and of course both independents. Anything else from you guys.

Speaker 1 (01:03:07):
You guys want to talk about air and the Pack
two and the Pack two?

Speaker 2 (01:03:10):
Thank you? How could I possibly forgot the Pack two,
which will finally be the Pack not too next year?

Speaker 1 (01:03:16):
That's all for me. Okay, we're gonna talk. We're gonna
have plenty of time in the talk Week one next week?

Speaker 2 (01:03:22):
All right? So do you guys want to do Week
zero now or should we save it for the NFL pod?

Speaker 1 (01:03:28):
I guess we had.

Speaker 4 (01:03:29):
This is college so we have to but I think
we touched on it. The only thing I've bet is
Hawaii US three. Haven't Rainbow Warriors plus three? It's now
minus one twenty one thirty money line. I'm good with that.

Speaker 1 (01:03:43):
I spoke.

Speaker 4 (01:03:45):
Go back and listen to the last podcast if you
want to hear why I hate Stanford. I'm down on Stanford.
I'm under three and a half wins. Now they're going
on the road to the island. Why he has been
five and seven consecutive years. This is a good way
to get off with a win and set your season
off right to become Bowl eligible. I like Timmy Chang.
I like what Hawaii brings back. They retain a lot
of talent. They're playing on the island. It's the Saturday night,

(01:04:07):
Week zero primetime game, and Stanford just lost all their
top end talent and really hitting the reset button. So
I will be a Rainbow Warrior fan. We will be
Rainbow Warrior fans on Saturday night of week zero.

Speaker 2 (01:04:22):
And that is my probably minus one twenty right now,
jeweles a book.

Speaker 1 (01:04:26):
Fine by me.

Speaker 5 (01:04:26):
Jules and I are watching the game together in Connecticut.
We might be yeaht watching in CT, CT.

Speaker 2 (01:04:32):
And say I'll be I'll be uh watching by myself.

Speaker 5 (01:04:36):
I'll talk to Newton game uh slightly because I'll probably
gonna put a half a unit on this game.

Speaker 1 (01:04:40):
And that's case State minus three. I just like climbing here,
you know, over in Ireland.

Speaker 5 (01:04:48):
So our good buddy Joe thought it was a home
game for case State, but it's a neutral site.

Speaker 1 (01:04:53):
Minus three would be really good there, and I agree
with Dan.

Speaker 5 (01:04:57):
I think it's a big advantage for I always say
not having to go to Manhattan this year, but I
just like the way that they're gonna have this offense
around Avery Johnson. I just feel like the potential for
this offense to break out it is there. So climbing
for me and a team that a lot of people
talking to win the Big Twelve think that the talent

(01:05:21):
is there and the coaching is there. I'm a huge
climbing guy and that's coming from a Baylor grad in
the Big twelve. So not a huge play for me,
but I'll give out k State mystree.

Speaker 2 (01:05:31):
Okay, so official play for CT half unit.

Speaker 1 (01:05:33):
Yeah, half you unit okay?

Speaker 2 (01:05:34):
And Jewles you are a full unit on Hawaii minus.

Speaker 1 (01:05:37):
One twenty works for me?

Speaker 2 (01:05:38):
Okay? All right, Then I'll give one out too, even
though I have not played it yet, I'm going to
be on it. I'm gonna take Kansas minus twelve and
a half right now. It's current number of book maker
as of ten eleven PM twelve and a half minus
one to eight jewles minus one, twenty CT minus three
minus one ten. There you go. I'll take Kansas minus
twelve and a half minus one away. I think it's good.

(01:05:59):
This is good up to thirty team. I probably wouldn't
play it past that. But look, first off, I think
Lipold is maybe. I think he's a top five head
coach in college football. I'm sure's a lot people will
disagree with that. But they have a new OC, a
new DC this year. They get the cornerbacks coach DK
McDonald gets that promoted there, and they bring in the
Zabrowski kid, the quarterbacks coach from Kansas State CE team,

(01:06:19):
which I I was a big guess YEP for Kansas State,
but I love love Jalen Daniels. He got hurt last
year at the end of the game, at the end
of the season, no one's really talking about it, and
he just couldn't figure it out from there. He just
couldn't do what he wanted to do. I still think
he is a top twenty quarterback in college football. I

(01:06:39):
think this whole team is being super super undervalued. They
have a ton returning on the offensive line. They have,
they have you know, the quarterback returning. They have some
interesting stuff at wide receiver. I like the defense outside
of the secondary. They lose their entire secondary group. But
I just don't think that this number is right on them.

(01:07:01):
I think Fresno new coach, new quarterback, both new coordinators
lost its und defensively, lost its on offensively. I think
this number is a little short. I think this is
probably a two touchdown game. I just trust Jaylen Daniels.
I trust the coach in this situation in Lawrence. I
think Fresno bites off a little bit more than they
can chew here. I think this is probably a twenty

(01:07:22):
plus point game. So give me Kansas minus twelve and
a half as my official play for Week zero.

Speaker 5 (01:07:29):
So there you go, one officialt My attention there, partner.
I agree with you too. I think there's a little
too much hype for Fresno in that game. Then yeah,
and again, we're gonna get some good I could get.
I could say this on the pod, We're gonna start
to get some very good Fresno info, guys, because I
forgot if I told you or not. But I won't
mention his name but our good pal, uh is friends

(01:07:51):
with Brian Farrence. And Brian Farrence is now at Fresno State,
Yes he is, which is our good pal.

Speaker 1 (01:07:58):
Who we get the Iowa info?

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
What do you think about that fit? By the way,
not the OC, not the d C. Yeah, not the
head coach.

Speaker 1 (01:08:06):
I don't know.

Speaker 2 (01:08:06):
I mean, I I like ends. I just think that
this is a lot to ask for. I mean they EJ.
Warner is the quarterback man. He's a I think he's
a pretty big step down upside.

Speaker 5 (01:08:16):
But not to mention the running back room is still
great for Kansas, right, Yeah, I shaw back and that
Iowa transfer Lashawn Williams backing them up.

Speaker 2 (01:08:25):
I mean, they lose Neil and it's I don't even
think it's gonna I don't even think it's.

Speaker 1 (01:08:28):
Gonna skip a beat.

Speaker 2 (01:08:30):
Yeah. Fresno, by the way, loses all three of their
top three wide receivers in the room. They lose four
their top they lose four their five offensive line starters. Uh.
They do return both the running backs there, But I
mean either of them are great. I think I think
is uh. I mean I think I think they're in
a lot of trouble and that the livebacker looked terrible
this year. Uh, secondary has no experience. I think this

(01:08:53):
is gonna be a Jayalen Daniels feast. I think they're
gonna fucking feast all over them. I'm looking at team
total on this one too. I think can't this is
gonna put up points against this Fresno team. So we'll see.

Speaker 1 (01:09:05):
Okay, brdle one there for them, all right?

Speaker 2 (01:09:07):
All right, one play week zero for each of us,
A bunch of future bets as well. Uh and next
week we will be back with the Week one College
Football Podcast. We'll give out our plays. It will be
like obviously you've probably heard some of us talk about it,
but yeah, we will get to all that next week.
Anything else from.

Speaker 1 (01:09:27):
You guys, set partner, it's going to be back to
get back in the saddle with you guys.

Speaker 2 (01:09:31):
Football baby, It's finally fucking here.

Speaker 1 (01:09:34):
All right, cash up for us.

Speaker 2 (01:09:36):
This has been episode three of the Bus and Handicappers Podcast.
We will talk to you next week or more college football.
We out of here.

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