The Monday Opener - August 25th

The Monday Opener with CT Bets & Dan Lifshatz - August 25th, 2025

This Weeks Guest: Julian Edlow of DK Network

The guys cover some line movement of the Week 1 College Football card, while reviewing the Week 0 Games.

This Weeks List:
Iowa State/Kansas State Week 0 Review
UNLV/Idaho State Week 0 Review
Kansas/Fresno State Week 0 Review
Western Kentucky/Sam Houston State Week 0 Review
Hawaii/Stanford Week 0 Review

Boise State/South Florida Week 1 Preview
Auburn/Baylor Week 1 Preview
UNLV/Sam Houston Week 1 Preview
Ohio State/Texas Week 1 Preview
Arizona/Hawaii Week 1 Preview
Oregon State/Cal Week 1 Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
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(00:22):
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Speaker 2 (00:31):
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Speaker 3 (00:41):
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So your pokey pain a lot of pants, but we
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Speaker 4 (00:58):
Its fossing Eddy Copas.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Welcome into the Boston Handicappers Opener. I am Dan Liftschatz
here with our guys ce t Bets and of course
our guest Julian Edlow's. You can see we have the
three of us there. I hope everyone is having a
wonderful Monday. To you the of course, the uh Boston
Handicappers opener, brought to you by Viva Tequila, Seltzer Live, Long,

(01:25):
Lift Fast, grab a fucking viva. That's right. We can swear.
We can swear, guys, because no one, no one cares anymore.
We can do whatever you want anymore. Up there you go.
Let's bring jewels back over here. See if I can
find see if I can find him.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
There he is, Hey, guys, here he is.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
I found him. I brought him back in. He's back in.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
You notably left me out of the tweet today, so
you might as well just leave me off the show, right, Dane.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
I mean to be fair, to be perfectly, to be
perfectly fair. You know you you did ask for jewels,
You did ask for This is something that you that
you openly ask for.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
So I just want to make And then I knew
I could ask for whatever I wanted on the show.
I probably would have asked you to wear sleeves to
the first game.

Speaker 1 (02:09):
Sleep sleeveless today, sleeveless today in the in the studio,
UH coming to you from UH from parts unknown. We'll
call it like that. But our ear, we're ready to go. Look,
we have some real fucking football to talk about, guys.
We had some real football games to talk about, uh
last week, but before we get to that, I kind
of want to everyone know what the deal is going
to be moving forward on this show. We're gonna be

(02:30):
doing the opener every Monday, discussing you know, the lines
that come out the week before, I guess the day before,
and that day as well, be discussing NFL, we discussing
college football, talking about the lines, maybe giving out some
early plays moving you know, and talk about the movement
that week. Big games, small games, any games that you
guys would like to talk about, we will get to.

(02:51):
So that's uh, that's probably what we're doing moving forward.
This week is going to be a little bit different
just because of the fact that there are uh you know,
these these lines have been out for months and so
we are gonna have to take a little bit of
a different approach this week. We are gonna talk about
some movement from last week, I guess last week to
this week. We're gonna talk about some other stuff as

(03:13):
well in games that we do like we of course
will be doing all this all over again, uh coming
up on Wednesday when we go over the actual podcast,
but we're gonna be talking about you know, a couple
of games here and there. We'll also we were reviewing
the games from week zero. We'll be going through all
of that. But let's, uh, let's go through everything. Ct
bets this here at ct bets sixteen on Twitter Julian

(03:33):
Edlow of DK Network To make that abundantly clear, DK Network,
Julian Edlow is here. Uh, and Jewels will be a
feature guest each and every week as well, so heavily featured,
heavily featured guests. Of course, the heavily featured uh Julian Edlow.
So we'll be going through that. Anyways, fellas, let's uh,
let's start. Let's recap our week zero because we did

(03:55):
give out three plays on the on the group of
five podcasts. Let's start here. Let's uh, let's start with
the good ones. Let's start with Kansas where Kansas absolutely
dominates Fresno in really what was a you know, non
competitive game for the most part, crush them and uh, hey,
you know, nice, nice win to cover the twelve and

(04:18):
a half. We'll get into that one for sure, but
no problem that one closes Kansas fourteen, easy winner there,
bada boom bada bing, No problem there. We also talk
about Hawaii Hawaii money line minus won twenty closed around
the minus one thirty ish area. I think we got
a little lucky on that one to be perfectly to

(04:39):
be perfectly transparent, but yeah, sometimes a little a little
luck is involved there, and so we do we do
end up getting the w and uh, you know, finally
we had the Kansas State game. That one doesn't go
our way, does feel like probably the wrong side, but hey,
uh you know, maybe if they don't fumble the fucking

(04:59):
pun things go a little bit different than that one.
Of course, I'll see obviously losing Doanu Wards a big
part of that one too, So.

Speaker 4 (05:06):
More Climbing kicks the field goal to tie the game
instead of going going for it there on fourth and short.
I don't. Yeah, I lost a lot of respect for
Climbing during that game. Someone who I used to consider
the best coaching the Big twelve partner, Yeah, him and
Wells did not have their their fastball in Dumblin.

Speaker 1 (05:24):
No, not at all, and not Campbell owns that owns
that relationship right now. But let's uh, let's kind of
get into a little bit here with with some of
the games and we'll we'll we'll do the stack over here.
Let's get into the first game over here, the the
Iowa State Kansas State game. Here, guys, i Iowa State

(05:47):
wins twenty four one, three or five, three or six
matchup case State goes off minus three and a half
minus three actually, I think was the was a number
their dame game does go under. Any guy, any thoughts
on what you guys? Any thoughts on the game? Chris,
I'll start with you, because you were the one who,
like you were the one who liked the k States side,
probably more than I think, probably more than most of us.

(06:09):
What were your thoughts on that one? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (06:11):
I did the game. It got very public towards kickoff,
which doesn't mean that the game is not going to cash,
but uh, it didn't work out this time. It did
not cash, and uh, you know, unfortunate for the unfortunately
for the Cats. Dylan Edwards he gets hurt on pretty much.

Speaker 2 (06:28):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (06:28):
I think it was the first punt of the game,
muffs the pop punt, sprains his ankle. There. He's gone
for the rest of the game. So Joe Jackson comes
in and I was terrified. We were texting. I was terrified.
Right when Edwards goes out because I just knew in.

Speaker 3 (06:44):
The rain just like that that they probably weren't gonna
want to run Avery Johnson that many times, being with
week zero overseas in the rain in the ship, so
I didn't think that Joe Jackson was gonna be able
to carry the load.

Speaker 4 (07:01):
They actually didn't even really give it to him that
many times. I think he only had twelve carries Avery Johnson.
I thought they were gonna at least hand it off
to him or let him go more than eight carries. Dan,
I don't know. I didn't like the game plan from
from Matt Wells all the way up to Kleinman. Thought
the K State d played pretty well, got some great stops.

(07:23):
Tip of the cap to Iowa State. Matt Campbell is
a great coach and rocc obeck Man tough kid. I mean,
he picked up some big time, big time third downs
running the ball himself. There's a reason why those uh,
those kids love him because he's one of the toughest
kids on the team, and he really showed it on Saturday.

(07:44):
Wasn't wasn't really impressed with K State. I think in
case State might have some issues, especially if Edwards can't
get healthy. Soon really wasn't impressed with with Brown. You know,
he had that one big touchdown pass there, but he
dropped a couple.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Uh.

Speaker 4 (07:59):
I thought he should that had there and that's uh,
that's Avery's go to guy. Uh, So I think it's
gonna be Uh. I don't think k State is done
by any means. First game of the year, Climbing came
out and said, you know, you know this is game
one here and uh, you know, we made some strides
there in the second half, and I don't think it's

(08:19):
a team you could count out, but not the k
State team. I thought we were gonna say.

Speaker 1 (08:25):
Yeah, it was was a little bit disappointing to uh
to see the way that Avery Johnson played as well. Guys,
I thought Avery Johnson really really struggled in that game.
I'm it looks like I'm having some some camera trouble here,
so apologies.

Speaker 2 (08:44):
And Dan's going, all right, I'll pick us up from
here as long as we're still alive. I dipped out
for a minute before Dan did as well, so I'm back.
Here comes Dane, and my main takeaway, you see the
yards per play KSE State was out gaining by more
than two yards per play, and we don't even think
they played well. Right, So you and i CT and

(09:07):
Day and like are all in the same look ahead spot. Now,
not that it's week one, but Iowa State has to
come back and at least play a week one game.
I don't even have in front of me who they're playing.
They're gonna win it, they're huge favorites. But the hangover
spot I think comes week two, and that's the Iowa
game Iowa on the road. We remember a game we

(09:27):
all had Iowa last year when they dominated the first half.
Iowa State came back and won the game the second half.
I think where this sets up for Iowa State did
not impress me at all in that win, much like
Hawaii did not impress me at all in that win.
So I think this sets up for a really good
hangover spot, even with it being a home game Week
two with an angry Iowa team who you pointed out today,

(09:50):
what is it, cet, how many games in a row
have they won there?

Speaker 4 (09:53):
They've won their last six and names.

Speaker 2 (09:55):
Yeah, the Hawkeys have won six in a row on
the road in this rival and they have a perfect
revenge spot after how last year fell a spot and
a great spot to catch Iowa State kind of overvalued
and sleeping off of this win in Ireland. So as
soon as that game ended, my thought process went to,
what's the best number I'm gonna get on Iowa in

(10:17):
week two?

Speaker 4 (10:18):
Yep, And sorry, Dan, I mean they'll cut you off there.
But I was talking to our good friend Chuck Bridge today.
You know, he just chimed in right there, and you know,
he brought up a really good point. Kirk is kind
of getting to the end of his career, right and
this is one that he has. Obviously Iowa State does

(10:39):
too with Matt Campbell, but not sure how many more
of these games Kirk is going to have here. And
this is the healthiest that Kirk, healthiest team that Kirk
has had to start the season in a very very
long time.

Speaker 1 (10:55):
No, I completely agree. I was a little bit more
impressed with Iowa State than the than the EPA, and
then the kind of the statism show. I thought, again,
quarterback was phenomenal in the key situations and that was
kind of the difference. They didn't turn They didn't you know,
have the incredibly stupid turnovers that I thought was was
wildly frustrating over nowher for Kansas State. I'm also just

(11:17):
gonna say this, and I'm probably gonna be on an
island here. I do not believe in Avery Johnson. I
just haven't fucking seen I don't see it with the kid.
I don't see it like I see the untapped potential,
but I don't see the production. I was really looking
for that jump from from last year this year and
again in a big time spot in a neutral site.

(11:38):
I mean, that is that's not ames in a neutral site.
They still didn't get it done, and I just have
a lot of questions about this Kansas State team moving forward. Guys,
I'm very very concerned about Avery Johnson. I'm very concerned
about this this Kansas State team. Their massive transfer didn't
show up either in the wide receiver spot obviously. You
know they had a couple of transfers in neither of

(11:59):
them show up in that game. I was just I
was incredibly disappointed by everything that they really did. To
be perfectly fair with you, and so you know, again,
I loved rock Obeck. I thought he was the much
better the team. But yeah, Jiron Tibbs four catches thirty
five yards basically didn't do shit and Jacon Brown was
the most explosive player I thought on their entire team,

(12:20):
and you know, he had that big carry for the
you know what was it like the twenty nine yeard
run or whatever it was. Yeah, but you know, Joe
Jackson was terrible. I'm very concerned about this team, and again,
like man, that super concerning moving forward for this for
this team, Iowa State again didn't love them, but Matt
Campbell just owns owns that relationship and owns Kansas State

(12:44):
right now, everything that's going on there, all right, guys,
what's what's move on to the next game here, which
is the big, a big one, which is Western Kentucky
Sam Houston. I don't know if you guys watched a
lot of this game, but late in the uh maybe
not late like mid third quarter, Sam, he's a twenty
four to twenty one lead in this game, ended up
get getting shell ACKed from there, Western Kentucky up forty

(13:06):
one to twenty four. Now, I don't have a ton
in this game. I do want to point out that
both that the Sam Houston State team does play this week,
and we are going to talk about that game looking
forward here, But I do think that this was a
very very one sided game. And there's been a lot
of people who are very down on this, uh, this

(13:28):
Sam Houston team, or vers very high on the Sam
Newston team, even though they're not the same team as
last year. I would be a little concern. They did
not look good from the quarterback position, you know, once again,
and I was a little I was a little concerned there, guys,
you know, seeing once again where where this team is

(13:49):
Western Kentucky kind of a trappy spot for them. They
found a way to get it done, and uh it
got the win and you can see, you know, just
a very very dominant performance, especially in the second half.
Solid epa for play. You know. I thought it was
a very good offensive performance for Western Kentucky. Little concerned
about Gunner Watson. We're definitely gonna talk about him, the

(14:10):
quarterback for Sam Houston, who was like kind of in
the uh you know, like a quarterback race at the
end of the year here to see if he was
gonna he got He got every single snap. He had
an incredibly high turnable worthy play rate in that game.
Something to know. Even though Sam Houston was pretty good
at times, I I'm a little concerned about the quarterback

(14:31):
spot for for Sam Houston there Western Kentucky. I think
very very clear path to UH to moving forward in
the Conference USA at this point now, and UH probably
should challenge Liberty, you know, for for for stuff there.
Let's let's obviously you guys. You said, Jules, did you
ended up watching this game at all? Or no?

Speaker 2 (14:51):
You got all that ct bober had a lot of
same Houston thumbs. I know, I don't have anything on
this game.

Speaker 4 (14:59):
On this game, I to snap of that game. Didn't
make a bet on that game. I knew you would
have plenty of notes on it. Oh yeah, okay, I
have nothing to say.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Great, Well, so do you want to go to Sam
Houston UNLV.

Speaker 1 (15:12):
Well well, well what what's what's let's continue the review
that okay, that, well, let's not jump too far ahead
of guy.

Speaker 2 (15:19):
Then, yeah, I got ahead of myself.

Speaker 1 (15:20):
That's right. That then we got the game that I
like the most, guys. It was Kansas Fresno State. Kansas.
I think I think dominated that game. Outside of the
first opening drive for Fresno State, I didn't think that
was a competitive ball game at all. Pretty much an
ass kicking. You can see the the win probability here.
It was just I mean, it was a it was
a fucking ship show. And you can see the the

(15:42):
Fresno expected points chart just really after the first ten minutes,
just completely fucking drop after, you know, after the first
ten plays there, just down, down, down. Now again, they're
they're going to a new offense, right, They're going from
a you know, kind of like an aired out type
offense to a ground and pound offense. So you expect
President to kind of change things this year, maybe not

(16:03):
be as good, but I mean, again, you know, under
almost a point two negative EPA for play. The yards
per play was in the fourth percentile, which is fucking awful.
The yards per dropback was bad. And I'm a big
you know, I'm a big EJ. Warner guy. I just
bad game plan. I think this Kansas team wildly underrated. Guys,

(16:28):
and I wonder I want to know your thoughts moving forward,
if there is any sort of thought on Kansas maybe
looking at a Big twelve play here, because I thought
they were incredibly impressive.

Speaker 2 (16:40):
The Big twelve is just so wide open, as we
keep talking about, like I don't have a feel at
all for who's gonna win the conference. I don't like
what we saw from k State and Iowa State. Right,
So a team like Kansas, we don't know what Fresno is,
but they come out and look really solid. I'll say
that I'm higher on Kansas than then Market. And I'm

(17:02):
glad that you gave out the play on them because
I tailed you, Dan.

Speaker 1 (17:04):
Yeah, oh good, glad. I'm glad, And I know I
know Chris ended up jumping on it too.

Speaker 4 (17:09):
Yeah No, I mean Dan put us on this, and uh, myself,
being a Big twelve guy, I looked into it and
I agreed and I gave it out as well after you.
So appreciate you, Bopper. And yeah, I mean I liked
what I saw after them. But I think Jewels makes
a pretty good point there. I mean, this, this was Fresno.
Let's see what they do when Big twelve plays starts here.

(17:32):
I think the back seven still needs some work and
needs needs to come together on defense there. But the
running game I talked to both of you about this before.
I thought Williams, even though he only had six carries,
I thought he was great. Every time he touched the ball.
We knew we were gonna get out of High Shaw.
So kind of get that that one two punch. I
know it's not Devin Neil what they lost lash after

(17:55):
last year, but it's nice seeing that running game there.
And they lost a lot of wide receivers, damn. I
was it was nice to see guys catching the ball there,
got like a Pickett and Henderson junior. But they had
nice games and and Daniels looked great. If Daniels could
stay healthy, like Jules says, the big twelves wide open.
So I mean, as long as he's healthy, they got

(18:15):
a shot.

Speaker 1 (18:16):
I agree.

Speaker 4 (18:17):
And uh so we're getting out of the out of
k state, and I would say it wasn't too impressed.

Speaker 1 (18:22):
Our our guy Captain Caveman talking about the Western Kentucky game,
the G five disrespect is awful. I completely agree, guys,
the G five disrespect here, not not not showing out
for the Western Kentucky Sam Houston steak and how how
how dare you Jesus Christ?

Speaker 2 (18:37):
But yeah, it was it was up against a lot
of other things that were that were on our screens.

Speaker 1 (18:42):
I was flipping. I've seen cts. Uh basically I have
the gods there with the twenty different screens.

Speaker 2 (18:49):
I think he could have well we weren't at CT sportsbook.

Speaker 1 (18:52):
I know you weren't. I know you were.

Speaker 2 (18:53):
Cet and I were actually at a bar in CT.
They turned into a night club. By the time we left,
after Hawaii was gone, we were shoulder to shoulder with
twenty two year olds.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
How about that, Oh, I bet you love that Jewels.
That's that's that's absolutely.

Speaker 4 (19:05):
You're getting a little too young. We have to get
out of there.

Speaker 1 (19:09):
Speaking of which, let's let's talk about that Hawaii Stanford game.

Speaker 4 (19:12):
Here.

Speaker 1 (19:13):
Hawaii wins twenty three to twenty in a game where
if Gabranson doesn't throw that fucking pass, I think Stanford
probably wins that game. It was absolutely looney Tunes that
game here, and you can see the just the craziness
of this game CT. I'll start with you with thoughts
on this game from a from from I guess from

(19:35):
both team standpoint, Really, it doesn't matter.

Speaker 4 (19:37):
I think you said it perfect, Like, if they don't
get away from handling the ball off to micah Ford,
Stanford wins that game. I thought we were extremely lucky
to cast that ticket. I didn't understand why you put
that ball in their I mean, Ford was great all
day long, even Irvin. He was getting some carries and
Hawaii just could not stop the run. I must say though,

(20:01):
on Hawaii side, I mean that that kid could throw
the ball, kids got an arm. Kind of reminded me
of uh, you know, the the two days right slinging
it left hander.

Speaker 1 (20:15):
I don't know.

Speaker 4 (20:16):
The kids showed me a lot. I liked how you
texted uh, Jules and I after he got hurt and
said Hawaii season is over.

Speaker 1 (20:23):
Absolutely got overreacting game, you know, but I.

Speaker 4 (20:28):
Thought and was was really good. And uh, I think we,
along with a lot of other people that are respected
uh in this business, kind of uh might have been
a little off on uh on on the bows.

Speaker 1 (20:44):
So Jules, let me ask you this, because do you
do you still believe you know, you were a big
proponent of the of the Stanford under after seeing their
their run game, which I thought was pretty impressive. Now
Hawaii couldn't stop the run game. You see the fucking
uh you know the success rate there. You know, obviously

(21:04):
Stanford epa per rush almost almost point two ePaper rush,
which is pretty impressive. Look at the defensive stuff right there,
seven percent in the zero percentile. Neither of these teams
could stop the fucking run, which is just absolutely insane.
But I mean, Jules, do you still feel good about
the Stanford team moving forward knowing that they were able
to kind of run the football? Do you are you think?

(21:26):
Are you still on the under here?

Speaker 2 (21:28):
They ran the football because Hawaii blows. Both of these
teams suck. Watch this whole game with CT I was like,
both of these teams suck, So thank you Hawaii forgetting
me the cash week zero. Not a fan of you
moving forward. You had a dinged up quarterback, you can't
stop the run, You're poorly coached, not good by Hawaii.

(21:50):
You escape with the win. Didn't really like anything from
Stanford either, aside from okay, a decent running game, but
I think Hawaii's run defense played a huge role in that.
So we'll get to some like splits and movement on
Hawaii's next game because they play again. I will say,
like right away, they're playing Arizona. If we got player

(22:12):
props up on that on DK Sportsbook, which I'm I
don't think we're gonna have like that game yet, but
I'm looking Arizona's like rushing props. I'm very interested now
in now all of a sudden because I think that
is a Hawaii problem, cannot stop the run. But yeah,
both of those teams were bad, so I just felt
fortunate to get the win and both teams are a fade.

(22:37):
But to answer the question, I feel great about Stanford
under three and a half. They're now two and a half.
The in season win total, at least on DK sportsbook
has moved to two and a half. I don't know
if they're gonna get three. The Hawaii game was a
big piece of the handicap on the three and a half.
They have three winnable games. They're on against BC San
Jose State, who I like, and cap three there unless

(23:03):
you're gonna pull a double digit upset. The rest of
the schedule is like Miami, FSU, Notre Name U NC,
Like there's not wins on there.

Speaker 1 (23:13):
I get it. I'm just again, look look at that
rushing e p a almost seven and seven point five
e p a just in the running game for Stanford.

Speaker 2 (23:22):
Yeah, it could be about focus on Hawaii and play
some Arizona rushing props next week.

Speaker 1 (23:27):
I got a look at the offensive line yards here.
Incredibly just a very dominant performance by the Stanford in
my opinion the Stanford team. There, I'm a little bit
more impressed than you are, Jewels.

Speaker 2 (23:38):
I thought Dan's teakaway is that Stanford's dominant from no.

Speaker 1 (23:41):
No, no, no, no, no no.

Speaker 2 (23:42):
I lost to Hawaii and why I played like shit.

Speaker 1 (23:45):
Hawaii did play? I mean they did, But yeah, I
guess I will say, if Reike isn't a fucking moron,
they probably win the game.

Speaker 4 (23:51):
I would agree if if isn't a moro on, they
win that game.

Speaker 1 (23:55):
Yeah, all right, final game. We got a review, and
did you guys watch any of this game either.

Speaker 4 (24:00):
I don't even want to talk about this game because
I don't understand how after we did the G five podcast,
how after this gets bet up to like thirty one
and a half that we don't.

Speaker 2 (24:14):
Have from the low twenties, from the low twenties.

Speaker 4 (24:16):
Iawa State, Idaho State. I just don't understand that. I'm
so mad, That's all I got. I'm pissed that you
and me is everything we said they were gonna be.

Speaker 1 (24:29):
I agree. I actually I feel great about our UNLV
under Yeah right now.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
That was gonna be My identical takeaway is okay, they
didn't lose if they lost this game, we pretty much
win under eight and a half. They didn't, but you
gotta feel great about where it's at right now.

Speaker 1 (24:45):
Look, they were never not favored to win the game.

Speaker 4 (24:48):
But it.

Speaker 1 (24:52):
Just look at the expected points here. Idaho State was
ass on the negative EPA per play and they all
most won the game. I mean that that's that's as
bad as it gets. Man, Yeah, absolutely ridiculous. I I
will say this. I will say this, U n l
V is in a isn't a world of trouble? And

(25:14):
then later in their schedule they're in a world of
trouble there because and I'm sorry, alex Orgy was this
is my takeaway from this one. Alex Orgy not an
FBS quarterback. That kid fucking sucks. And it was just
reported right before the show started. Guys, they're gonna go
once again next week with co starters Calandria and Orgy,

(25:36):
and I'll give you a preview. I kind of like
UNLV this week. I don't know if I can bet
it now because because of the fact that Orgy is
gonna play, if this kid plays, it's just it's it's
a negat it's a negative thing every single play. I mean,
I don't know if they do negative e PA per play. Here,
let's see he had a positive EPA for play and

(25:57):
yards per play. And I thought he was awful, Like
again three or four thirty times, just four times, but
I mean it was it was awful. I mean, look
at that. Look look at that again. He surprisingly has
the the advanced analytics say, hey, he was good, but
look at the rushing yards. The rushing yards are terrible.

(26:19):
I just I know I'm out on this kid. So
there you go that. That's my takeaway. Is unlv in
a world of her uh this year? All right, that's
our review, that's our review. Weeks here, let's get into
the games for this week.

Speaker 4 (26:34):
Guys.

Speaker 1 (26:35):
Now, just we're all doing a podcast on Thursday or Wednesday.
We're gonna put it up on Thursday. So we're not
gonna go over every game. We're not gonna give out
a million plays today. I just want to make that
abundant week clear. But we're gonna do this every week,
give out some early plays. Whatever. All these lines have
been up, let's talk about them. We're gonna talk about
some movement plays here. Okay, Boise State, South Florida. This

(26:57):
number is actually old. This says six sixty three. This
is now five and a half sixty three. This one
was actually at one point eleven and a half in
this game. Then it got back down the eight eight
and a half as you see there, eight and a
half sixty five. Now I'm listening six sixty three. I'm
gonna let you guys start on this one here because

(27:18):
the move, the move is getting I think is now
we're now entering territory where the buyback on on boise
is almost.

Speaker 2 (27:25):
Like it's actually so it is happening at DraftKings, I
can tell you. Yeah, I'm looking so.

Speaker 4 (27:33):
Kind of going away right now. But so Sports four
one one has five and a half one.

Speaker 1 (27:40):
Way, I think that's that right now. Which is which
is again, Yeah, that's crazy. That's the sharpest I mean
that's again Bookmaker, Pinnacle, those are the sharpest places that
you're looking.

Speaker 2 (27:48):
So so this is this was ten and a half
down to six on DraftKings. Now we're six and a half.
But what I can tell you just from looking at
our splits, this one was like something along I'm making
these numbers up. These are ballpark. It was something along
the lines of like eighty percent of tickets Bois thirty

(28:09):
percent of dollars Bois. We're now back up to six
and a half. From six, it's seventy seven percent tickets
for sixty one percent handle. The money line was also
extremely lopsided. Now it's eighty nine tickets for seventy four
handle on Boise. I know those don't sound like much,
but I don't have the broken down splits of like

(28:30):
the last twenty four hours or forty eight hours. But
from where that was, that means a ton of Bois
money has has at least been bet at DraftKings over
the last day or two. Given where it was, it
was way off from this for a long time.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
And yet and yet the places that are taking you know,
six dimes like a click are going the other way.

Speaker 2 (28:51):
Yeah, So I don't the splits to the splits to
flip that much, like I would be surprised if this
is all public money. There has to be a big
Bois bit somewhere in there on DraftKings to move it
that much. But uh, yeah, I don't know. That's interesting.
This is an interesting game.

Speaker 4 (29:10):
Chris minus five and a half one oh eight money
line two minus two fifteen. Yeah, that was so that
just moved fifteen cents a couple hours because it was
minus two thirty a couple hours ago.

Speaker 1 (29:22):
Yeah, again, I'm just I'm just being I'm just being
realistic about what we are. And again this is these
are the twenty four and twenty four stuff. This stuff
really ultimately doesn't mean fuck all for the previews here,
the game, the advanced analytics I'm putting up there, so
it really doesn't mean anything. But what I will say
is the movement on this game, the South Florida hype,

(29:43):
in my opinion, is getting that we're We're it's now
getting a little bit too much. So I made the
game seven. That's where I made the game. I made
the game seven, seven and a half right around that number.
I don't want to come in on Boise, but now
I feel like maybe I'm going to at least consider
a Bois here at five and a half six probably
not five and a half. I think it is probably

(30:05):
the area i'd start to consider a little buyback on Bois.
And I don't have a good number on Bois. I
have some bad Bois numbers because I wanted to play
a middle in this game but ended up not going
my way in that one. But my the bois five
and a half is in my opinion, it is getting
a little silly here. So I don't know what your
thoughts here, but yeah, that that seems ridiculous.

Speaker 4 (30:28):
So, like I get the love for South Florida a
little bit, Like I know, I mean, does everybody forget
Brown's coming off an injury that put him out for
the entire year last year? Yeah, and now it's his
first game back. Uh, I think what is it? Is
his knee?

Speaker 1 (30:45):
Right?

Speaker 4 (30:45):
Yeah, he went out for the year with a knee injury,
so this is his first game back. And like, I
get it. They were turned a ton and and I
think that the problem is the defense. And I don't
think the defense is there yet for them to be
considered a team that could win this conference, first of all,
and a team that should be a game that should

(31:08):
that opened nine and a half ten. I don't think
that should be. I don't think it's warranted to them
to be five and a half point dogs from from
the opener, from from ten. I just don't. I really
Like we talked about this on the G five pod,
Like I like this Boise team. I like Maddox back
on the center here so like the running back room,

(31:28):
I like, and everybody's talking about they're they're gonna be
fine at that position. Five and a half's getting I don't.
I don't think we're gonna see better than five and
a half.

Speaker 2 (31:37):
Maybe I'm wrong, No, we're not.

Speaker 1 (31:40):
I mean I think I think that's I think that's
probably that's probably right. Yeah, yeah, I think so. I
mean again I'm not. And again I do expect Brown
to make a billion of a leap this year. I do.
But last year again wasn't phenomenal by any standard. And
you know, again I know that they played a rather
difficult schedule beginning, but again, you know, taking a look

(32:02):
at yeah, but take a look at what he did
last year, Like, you know, it wasn't like he was
phenomenal in any of the games. I mean, you know,
again a negative e p a per dropback, you know,
taking a look at his his rushing stats, you know,
the e p a per rush was was solid, but
not elite. I mean, Archie had a better e p

(32:24):
a per rush even though he ran less. Like it
does feel a little concerning how how much people are
falling in love with this team. I am a little
bit a little bit too concerned here, and we we
do have a comment here. I know you're not supposed
to choose college football. Absolutely not. Do not fucking tease
this number. Dude, if you here's the deal, don't don't

(32:45):
you do not tease the number. I'm telling you.

Speaker 2 (32:47):
I can address. I can address this one. So I'm
gonna use Boising in money line paralys. If it's five
and a half, maybe I'll do a little five and
a half. I do believe in Boise, but I wouldn't
put it with Ohios eight Ohio State. We're down to
minus one twenty two on DraftKings. You can just bet
the Buckey's money line. That can be a straight play
for you. You don't need to put that with anything.

(33:09):
So I put Boise with Utah. Utah's at UCLA Pac
twelve after dark, even though it's Big twelve versus Big
ten after dark. I like Utah a lot this year
to bounce back from last year. Devin dan Pierre at quarterback,
and his offensive coordinator, Whittingham says he has the best

(33:31):
offensive line yet and he's had some damn good offensive lines,
and I always trust his defense, don't trust Ucla. So
that is my I mean that's essentially a teaser. But
Boise and Utah money line parlay, you're looking at plus
one oh five. I'm very much on board with that.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
The way the way we're trending jewels, I think I
think that member might get better for.

Speaker 2 (33:55):
Your Yeah, I mean I'm eating bad numbers here, but
anything plus money on Boise Utah, Uh, I'm good with yeah.
And you know, watch it keep going against me and
I still I still think it's gonna cash and put
it that way, you're just leaving money on the table
if you can get a better number.

Speaker 1 (34:15):
I'm interested in looking at Boise, I would I'm interested
in the five and a half. I'm wondering if I
look should look at more of a live number on
this team.

Speaker 4 (34:23):
Especially behind the side right now too about yeah.

Speaker 1 (34:26):
Again, trying to the South harda the South Florida hype
does feel a little bit overblown earlier. This number, of
my opinion, I think is now, I think we've now
gotten a little bit too far. The other way, I
get the sixes in the six and a half. You
you you know we're off by a point, you know,
a bit of a much, But I get it points
and a half. You know, week one, it feels like

(34:49):
a lot. All right, guys, let's move over to a
game that I know our guy CT Bets is dying
to talk about. One sixty three, one sixty four Auburn
and Baylor. Auburn the current favorite two and a half,
fifty seven and a half. This was pick'em guys, and
was fifty seven a couple of days ago. I know
that there were a couple releases by some sharp groups

(35:09):
here on this game, and you know there has been
a decent amount of Auburn love recently. I don't know
if it has to do with you know, what you
think is maybe an injury to a big key player
for Baylor. CT. I'll let you kind of discuss that
one as well. But I'm a little bit I'm a

(35:30):
little bit worried that this is, you know, one of
those games where I certainly don't feel like I have
a great feel for it, because I think you can
make a legitimate argument for both sides. I want to
hear your thoughts on this one, CT, and your thoughts
on this this Baylor team and especially against this SEC
Auburn team.

Speaker 4 (35:49):
Yeah, sure, I met plus three Baylor plus three gave
it out when we did the Power Power four Conference
pretty much two and a half across the board. Right now,
I'll give you guys a little info right about the game.
This is the first sold out game since twenty twenty
two for Baylor, I think since they played Oklahoma State

(36:12):
back when they were both ranked, and that was three
years ago. Now, this is gonna be Friday night game
home opener, blackout game on the Brazos. There really hasn't
been this much hype on a Baylor team in a
few years. And Dan, like I'm honest with you, every
year about Baylor. This is the first time in a

(36:32):
while that I've liked the Baylor team this much. Now,
with all that being said, camp went really well, but
they suffered some big time injuries that that's worth noting. Obviously,
one is the most notable Pendergrass. Everybody knows that the
backup quarter or backup running back to Washington. He's done
for the year. Talk a little bit about that when

(36:55):
we when we did the pod. But the good news
is that Cayden Knighton is He's a freshman and they
just named him the number two running back and everybody
absolutely loves what he did in camp, very excited about
what this kid's gonna do. So I think at that position, Dan,
they're gonna be fine. They're loaded with other running backs. Anyways,

(37:15):
the defensive side of the ball with the injuries kind
of really really is gonna be costly to Baylor. Right
talking about the Northwestern transfer at corner, I think that
was Devin Turner. He's out for the entire year. And
then recently we thought Carl Williams was gonna be able

(37:36):
to play on Friday at the star position. Obviously, you
remember that Baylor likes to use the star position, Dan,
Remember Jalen Petrie played the star position for Baylor a
few years ago and he was an absolute animal. Williams
isn't gonna be able to play on Friday, so they're
gonna be without a starting safety, as is Turner. But

(38:01):
now the Ohio State transfer, he's gonna slide over and
play the safety. So they're only gonna be down one
starter there because of the star position. But it's still
really unfortunate to be that banged up on defense because
they're really really short on corners as is this year.

(38:22):
So that's a position with how good that well, how
good everybody says that these Auburn transfer wide receivers are
they might be able to get a little exposed there.
And we all know the defense was Baylor's achilles heel
last year. Randa made it a big emphasis to focus
on it. Hit the portal hard. Just kind of unfortunate,

(38:44):
but well, that being said, almost everybody's back on offense here.
I'm a big story Robertson guy. I think he has
the potential to lead them to a Big twelve championship
and this place is gonna be rocking on Friday night.
I think these two teams, when you look at him there,
they're too op right. These are transfers versus returning guys
that came back to Baylor, so now you have to

(39:05):
mix in. Hugh Free is saying that he's gonna play
three quarterbacks. I'm assuming Jackson are and will start. The
other two are gonna play. I'm just not sure that
that's a game. I would want to try something out
on playing a Baylor team and in the opener here
playing three quarterbacks, I think that's a You're not playing
an FCS team, You're not playing a MAC team. UH,

(39:28):
playing Baylor, which is going to contend for the for
the Big twelve here. So I made I made Baylor
a slight favorite in this game. I like the Bears
to get it done. So Baylor plus three was a
play for me.

Speaker 1 (39:39):
Okay, Jules, any thoughts here?

Speaker 2 (39:42):
Yeah, I took Baylor with the points as well. Uh So.
Phil Steele came on my podcast DK and Daily Bits
over at DraftKings Network. Phil Steel, who Dan called washed,
I believe, among other words, he here's what I'll say
about when Phil comes on my podcast. I think this

(40:03):
is the fifth year in a row that I've talked
to Phil preseason. He talks to every coach in the
nation who's gonna tell you good things, and so some
teams can get hyped up and sometimes he's wrong about
the hype. The things that he's told me that I'm like,
okay is when he says something negative. One year, he

(40:25):
told me something negative about Virginia. I think their win
total was seven and a half. I said, oh, Phil's like,
never negative on here. I took Virginia under seven and
a half. It was the year that they had that
unfortunate shooting. I think they were two and eight and
didn't play the games the rest of their season. So
had that not happened, they were gonna be a two
or three win team. When he advised under seven and

(40:46):
a half. When he says something negative, my ears go
up and I listen. He said he's concerned about the
Auburn quarterback situation and that they are having to instill
confidence in Jackson Arnold. And that's not that you know,
he doesn't that like they don't necessarily believe in him,
and the coaches are trying to make him believe in himself.

(41:08):
And maybe that's why Hugh Freeze. This conversation was probably
before Hugh Freeze had that interview where he said, maybe
we will play multiple two three quarterbacks in the game
so you can transfering good wide receivers. You're still on
the road against at Baylor on Friday night, going against
an offense returning ten starters that average thirty five points
a game last season. I know it's sec defense. Like,

(41:31):
I'm not disrespecting Auburn here. I just think if they
if Auburn doesn't get the quarterback situation correct, then all right,
now you've got a quarterback advantage. You're on the road
and Baylor's getting points. So that's that's Baylor for me.

Speaker 1 (41:48):
All right. Interesting. I my one perspective on this. I
thought both Kansas State and Iowa State were better defensively
that I expected on Saturday. If we see the improvement
of Baylor defensively, I saw the improvement of Kansas already defensively.
I'm gonna start telling you I think maybe the Big
twelve might be slightly underrated this year compared to even

(42:09):
last year, if we if we start continue this trend,
because I saw the routines at the top played very
solid defensively. Now, obviously Kansas stay very sloppy, but nonetheless
I think defensively that's the case. If we can see
that again with Baylor against against Auburn, that'd be impressive.
But Jules, that is that's certainly something that's interesting to note,

(42:31):
no doubt about it, that that's really something interesting to
note that Phil mentioned the Jackson Arnoldson because there has
been a lot of hype on him, No doubt about it.
There there really has been. Do you just want to
stop and say again, this the show the week one
Boston handicap Opener sponsored by Viva Tequila Seltzer Seed. A
little logo up here in the top Rikle, give them

(42:51):
some love. Fantastic product, Live long, Live, Happy Viva. All
right's go on, and let's talk about a game guys
that I know you guys don't get a shit about
at all. But I put on this list because both
these teams played last week and I am interested in
this game from both a total perspective and a side perspective.
I did bet the over fifty eight and a half

(43:15):
when it kind of, you know, after the game the
other day, I think the UNLV defense is not great,
definitely leaves a lot to be desired. You can run
on them, at least I think. I think there's a lot,
you know, that you can kind of do on them
there not to mention. Here's the other thing about them.
I will say they go for a lot of turnovers.

(43:36):
They were very much trying to turn over the Idaho
State quarterback multiple times and Gunner Watson, the Sam Houston quarterback,
four turnover worthy plays in that game. All four guys
were quoted as potential pick six plays, meaning I think
there's a real opportunity here for a UNLV pick six.

(43:59):
I thought Gonna Watson was terrible throwing the football. He
was dying the might running the football guys, and so
I think this is one here that we do need
to pay attention to. First off, the explosive offensive potential
on the run game for you know, for the Sam
Houston side, but also potentially maybe a defensive touchdown look

(44:23):
though you know, those props are not widely available, but
certainly something that might be interesting as a look there.
I like the over in this game, and I am
reluctantly interested in UNLV. You know, again, I I did
think Calandria was decent in the game. I'm again not

(44:44):
an Orgy guy. I'm really hoping that Orgy kind of
pois in a similar type role he did last week,
more of a goal line guy, and they kind of
continue to roll with Calandria. If that's the case, I
would feel better about this number. But I'm gonna give
this one out right now because I think this is
my only play tonight. I'm gonna take UNLV minus ten
minus one twenty, which is currently out there in some places. Again,

(45:07):
I'm not in love with this play, but I think
there's a bit of an overreaction to that game on
you know, on Saturday, and I do think this is
kind of a decent spot to buy a little bit
low on NLV. Not high in this team at all
this year, but I'm also not high on you know,
the Sam Houston team, and I'm kind of down on them,
and I thought, especially late in that second half, they

(45:29):
got taken advantage of. I think that's exactly what Calandria
can do to this team as well. So to me,
I'm gonna buy in. Not a big play, but I'm
gonna buy in on U NLV minus ten minus one
twenty or better in this game. I think there are
some one on minus one fifteens in market as well, guys,
So that is gonna be uh my play in this game.
And again I know I'm not not trying to go

(45:50):
out there. There are a bunch of ten and a half's
right now bet online ten minus one twenty. That is
gonna be my play. There is a nine and a
half I think at fan Duel actually as well, that
people want to go out there. I'm gonna I'm gonna
double check that as well. But it looks like the
oddscreen says a nine and a half at fan Duel
right now, guys.

Speaker 2 (46:09):
The total has a total crept up.

Speaker 1 (46:12):
Yeah, total one from fifty eight and a half now
currently sitting sixty one and a half to get it
almost immediately, which is uh which I think is probably
the better look in this game. Honestly, guys. Yeah, right now,
UNLB is ten and a half. I've handled that. That
number is the.

Speaker 4 (46:27):
Only it's pretty much ten and a half. But there
are tens out there, Dan, like you said, I had
a few books. I see a ten minus one sixteen.

Speaker 1 (46:35):
So yeah, ten minus one twenty as well at bet
online is a I.

Speaker 2 (46:41):
Don't know if I don't know if I'll bet this
game or not. If I did, I would bet it
over not getting the best of the number. Uh. DK
betters agree with that. Seventy six percent of the tickets
for ninety nine percent of the handle on the over.
Obviously probably not the most heavily bet game in the
world right now, but it's all over. UNLV opened minus

(47:03):
fourteen and a half. In this game, DraftKings got down
as low as ten today it's now ten and a half,
thirty one percent of the ticket, sixty percent of the
handle on Sam Houston. So people are basically just fading
UNLV here. The thing is they this isn't a game
where you don't know the Week one team. We got
to see both them in Week zero as well, which

(47:25):
I think makes it really interesting. They got mopped at
Western Kentucky.

Speaker 1 (47:29):
So well, I think the score is a little misleading on.

Speaker 2 (47:33):
That, maybe a little bit.

Speaker 1 (47:34):
But they're up twenty four to twenty one, like mid
third quarter in that game.

Speaker 2 (47:38):
So well, okay, so you compete, but like you let
go of the rope. They're home now, but they're not
playing at home their stadiums like under construction. They're playing
forty five minutes away from campus. I don't know this
would this would be over a pass for me, but
I just line movement wise and splits wise. People want

(48:01):
to fade un l V, which I think is a
good call in the season, but maybe this isn't the
week to do it because you're playing another Week zero
team who's also on a short week, who's playing at
home but not really at home, And isn't that good?

Speaker 4 (48:15):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (48:15):
I do actually think that the the the orgy situation
too here is actually okay because I do think.

Speaker 2 (48:20):
That again the situation day.

Speaker 1 (48:22):
The orgy situation, that's right, they cut that, okay cut that.
I do think the the Alice orgy situation will be
okay again, assuming that Bullen uses them correctly, which I'll
give him a little bit of credit. He did kind
of use him, okay in that game. He realized this
kid can't fucking throw and then utilized him on the
goal line packages. And that's exactly where I think they
should utilize him. So I'll give Dan Mullen, who I

(48:45):
think is a fucking blithering idiot, I'll give him a
little credit. There you go, bet online minus ten right
now for our guy Fandle, I just want to give
a shout out your Viva Tequila. We got a mic
and Ross love it, loving the Vivas as well.

Speaker 4 (48:58):
All right, guess want to point out that that is
a nine to thirty game on Friday, So Fred, we
got a little underrated Friday card here.

Speaker 2 (49:05):
Friday's pretty loaded.

Speaker 4 (49:06):
A lot more going on than outside of the Baylor
Auburn game, you know. V Sam Houston, Jah Tech, Colorado.
We'll probably touch on that game on the pod. Uh,
Western Michigan, Michigan State. I mean, got some games.

Speaker 1 (49:19):
Here, Chris, Now, Chris, let me let me let me
ask you guys, because now right now I'm looking, there
are no threes available in the Auburn Baylor game at
this point in time, would you guys still be comfortable
laying taking the two and a half in that game?

Speaker 4 (49:30):
Yeah, that's fine. Two and a half my play for
the show. I apologize if you listen to our our
pod the summer, you got three there.

Speaker 1 (49:38):
Okay, yep, hundred percent you are correct. But we'll we'll
we'll be we'll be tracking both probably three and two
and a half. There you go. I have no problem
with that, all right, Jules, anything else on NL here?
You want to move on to a really good game,
a game that people actually probably want to talk about.

Speaker 2 (49:52):
Let's move it alone.

Speaker 1 (49:53):
Okay, there you go. Let's move on to one eighty
seven Ohio State and Texas minus two and a half
forty seven and half. Now, this number is a little
bit of everywhere. There's some two and a half in market,
there are some two in market, there's some one and
a half in market. I don't think it makes a
massive difference, although the one and a half obviously very
important in a potential overtime situation. Just putting that out there.

(50:14):
So if you have if you like Texas, you probably
should try and find some two and a half looking
at a bookmaker right now, it's Texas plus two and
a half minus one oh three. There has been some
money coming in. Sharp money guys coming on Ohio State
minus two and a half minus one thirteen at four
on one right now. Just for those interests in that one.

(50:36):
But I'll start with you, Jules, because I know that
you have an interesting play on this one. What are
your thoughts in this game? Knowing what knowing what we
know in this one.

Speaker 2 (50:46):
So we talked about, like how on other weeks, this
opener show on Monday is going to be much different
because we're having lines bounce out yep pop up within
twenty four to forty eight hours or less. I bet
Texas plus four and a half in like March. I
looked back at my account. Cool, great, got a good number,
knew where it was going. I'm all Ohio State money

(51:08):
line in this game, and we're down the neighborhood where
you can do that at like minus one twenty. If
the buck Eys wanna want to win by four or less, great,
that'll that'll kick some extra cash into my pocket. But
I've brought it all back plus more on Ohio State
money line for a couple of reasons. Ohio State has

(51:29):
the best player on offense at the receiver position, Ohio
State as the best player on defense in the defensive backfield.
They're at home. Yes, arch Manning is more experienced than Julian,
saying he has played snaps in big games, he hasn't started.
I still think this is gonna be a difficult road
game for arch Manning. The one thing that scares me

(51:51):
is the unknown of Julian, saying if he's not good
enough against a really good Texas defense. So I really
hope that he is. But I believe in the positions
all across the field for Ohio State and the big
like a lot of the key matchups that I'm targeting
in this week one oh And Ohio State's d line

(52:11):
is not that good Bio State standards. But we know
nothing about this Texas offensive line. They return one starter,
they have no experience. The weak Texas offensive line is
the key to this game in my opinion. In fact,
you bring in the noise, you bring in arch Matings.
First start the road atmosphere. I think that they're gonna
have some trouble moving the ball downfield, so I don't

(52:33):
have much bad to say about Texas. Their defense is
really good. I just think Ohio State at home with
a few key advantages, and like again we see the other.
Like the Hawaii win was a dumb win in Week zero,
Like maybe this comes down to a dumb win on
a ball that you chuck up to Jeremiah Smith. I'm
not chalking it up that way, but like, I like
having that guy on my side. If this game is

(52:55):
neck and neck, I like the Buckeyes in this.

Speaker 1 (52:58):
One, say tell you over to you any any thoughts
on this one?

Speaker 4 (53:02):
Yeah, I got some thoughts on it. I thought I
thought Jewles did a good job there. But I mean,
you know, all this hype like that we've been here
and from Texas, you know, kind of since the season ended,
and all the arch Manning hype here, I think it's uh.
I think it might be a little overhyped.

Speaker 2 (53:20):
Jules people are still betting him on DraftKings to be
the number one overall pick after his family said he's
not entering the draft.

Speaker 1 (53:28):
Oh yeah he did. He did say I don't know
where after that he did say, yeah.

Speaker 2 (53:33):
Sure whatever. But like every maning goes to school for
four years.

Speaker 4 (53:40):
I think it's worth noting saying this too, right. So
I learned this from our good friend Brett McMurphy. Actually
a little bit for before the show. If you're betting
arch Manning to win the Heisman plus six fifty, you
should know that even in eleven years, the odds on
favorite has not won the Heisman, actually since Marcus Mariota.

(54:04):
So take that for what you will. I thought that
was an interesting, uh little little stat there, Dan. I
think that these two teams match up pretty well on paper.
It's pretty even man to man. But the Buck guys
have the best two players in the country and I

(54:24):
don't think it's even close with the Jeremiah Smith at wideout,
and I think the best player in all around player
in the country is Caleb Downs. Now you're gonna go
into the Shoe and play the champs with arch Manning,
you know, with a whole new, rebuilt offensive line for

(54:45):
four new starters now that they played, they played games,
and they're they're not just new to the this system here,
but now these are four new starters protecting him at
home in the Shoe with day orchestra trading you know,
the offense and hand it over to Brian Hartline but
you know, Ryan's gonna have a lot of say in

(55:08):
the plays that they are caught here called here. I
hear the running back room. I talked about this one
on ninety eight five. Is Ryan day say is very
underrated and people they're going to catch people by surprise here.
After losing Henderson and john Kins, I think the talent's
there on both teams. But even with losing fourteen to

(55:29):
the Pros, I think that Saying's going to be just
fine under center, throwing to the best wide receivers in
the country, Texas offensive line and experience. I think it
allows the Buckeyes to take care of business, cover the
short number and I trust the buck guys in the
trenches more than I trust Texas, and I trust Ryan
Day way more than I trust Sart. So, Ohio State,

(55:54):
what's the best out there? Minus one twenty? Yeah, that's
a play for me. We got popper here?

Speaker 1 (56:04):
Yeah, sorry, sorry now my now, my my headphones there
crapped out on me. The brand new headphones and spots
there you.

Speaker 4 (56:10):
Go, all right, there you go two plays for me tonight.

Speaker 1 (56:13):
Okay, So you ended up taking Oho Stay minus two
and a half for money.

Speaker 4 (56:16):
Line minus one twenty.

Speaker 1 (56:17):
Okay, there you go, minus one twenty by way available
that that insane you want you want to do with that? Okay,
I'll put it in.

Speaker 2 (56:25):
And Baylor I'm on both of those, so okay, I'll
take them.

Speaker 1 (56:28):
Okay, there you go. Well the the right now. Just
for people looking for that number, state minus one twenty
currently at FanDuel, MGM and Caesars all currently minus one twenty,
got Captain kve Man on it as well. Uh So
just for people looking at that available number of those,
there's a bunch of numbers there and uh in that way.

(56:48):
So my my take on this game is a little
bit different from your guys. And again I do want
to go back to the uh the side profile from
last year of this team. Look look at the defense
for Texas. The defense this is gonna be phenomenal. We
know that. Look at the offensive profile for what Texas
did last year. They were a dominant team on the
protecting the passer, that's what they did. They were able

(57:11):
to move the ball through that. I mean, look at
the total EPA win passing. Look at the total EPA
win rushing. Okay, top seventy win rushing, top twenty win passing.
They now have to replace four offensive linemen and really
five because their swing tackles also gone guys, so they're
really replacing five of their top six guys there. We

(57:32):
don't really know what to expect. It's a huge crapshoot.
Week one. You're going in the Columbus in the shoe
and you're facing, in my opinion, a borderline elite defense. Guys,
if not an elite defense, probably probably shouldn't even say
border on. They are an elite defense now. A lot
of unknowns there, but still an elite defense. I know
Julian saying is a huge question mark as well. The

(57:53):
way I'm looking at this, and I bet under forty
nine and a half this one. I think that the other.
I think forty seven and a half is still good.
I made it forty five. I'm probably a little bit
off market here. I'm probably a little bit more down
on these offenses then I should be. But I'm not
high on arch Manning at all this year. I just
I'm not. I think that this is gonna be a
really difficult adjustment for him behind a brand new offense line.

(58:16):
I think it's gonna take four or five games for
this Texas team to really start humming offensively. I think
they will at some point. I think it's gonna happen.
I think Arch will then take the steps, but early
on on the road against a very good defense, and
then you have a true freshman against what I consider
another elite defense. I look at the under on this one.
To me, I think that's probably where you know where
I would bet. I bet under forty nine and a

(58:37):
half a couple of weeks ago. I still think forty
seven and a half is a decent bet. I'm not
gonna give it out officially right now, because I do
think maybe we'll see that tick up a little bit
in next couple of days.

Speaker 4 (58:48):
I think it's gonna take up two partner. I think
the you know, public money comes in and bets the
over right before kick.

Speaker 1 (58:53):
Yeah, And so I do think that maybe I'll maybe
I'll talk about a Wednesday more or maybe Saturday more.
But I do think that that is some that has
at least peaked my interest a little bit. I think
two very good defenses versus two very young quarterbacks.

Speaker 2 (59:06):
Keith makes a good point on the first half under
because I was going to bring that up. And if
we think it's going to tack up. Maybe we wait
for it to tick up. But like two quarterbacks making
their first start in this type of atmosphere, this has
a game with a slow start written all over it,
where maybe it picks up later in the second half,
like we just saw on the Iowa State case. State, Like,
I have some interest in first half under here and

(59:29):
want to see what I can get. I'll wait on
that one a little bit throughout the week.

Speaker 4 (59:33):
Yeah, I agree, both sark and and Ryan come out
pretty conservative.

Speaker 1 (59:39):
I think that's fair, especially with Arch on his you know,
his first real true road start in a real legitimate place,
and obviously Sayam's first true start. I understand that, and
I agree with that. Keith's other point, if you look
at if Texas's old house, then you may get a
better number for Arch on Heusman. So I'll just say this,
I think looking at Arch for Hosman until week three,

(01:00:01):
week four, because I think they they they I'll take
a look at the schedule off the top of my
head because I can't remember it, but I feel like
they have another losable game early on in that schedule,
and I'll have to see if I can find it again. Okay,
but but again, I would be very weary of taking
arch Manning Heisman. That's that's all I'm saying. In any

(01:00:22):
in any sort of capacity. This year, four new offensive linemen,
five pretty much of the swing tackle. I think you're
asking for a lot with a guy who has to
you know, who kind of moves the offense to there.
There's a there's a lot of uh uh, you know,
moving parts there offensively for this team. I just don't
think that this is the year for him. Now. I

(01:00:43):
could be wrong. I could be looking at a completely
Alreadio a couple of weeks from now, but I really don't.
I would really tend to avoid the arch Manning Heisman
be's this year by all means. I also will say
this Aileen Ohio State. I am an Ohio State fan.
I feel like I'm pretty not I'm pretty impartial when
it comes to Ohio State. I feel like this is
a pretty good spot where they're being completely disrespected in

(01:01:05):
this game. I made the game three. I'm probably it's
not a game I'm super interested in. I think there's
bigger edges as I talked about, but I think that
this is if I'm going to bet it I'm probably
betting Ohio State on the side, at least that's that's
my point of view. And that's being from a completely
and not bias stample, because I think Ohio State is
going to lose multiple games this year, no doubt about it.

Speaker 4 (01:01:27):
So Texas is at Ohio State home ver San Jose
State home versus UTEP home verse Sam Houston State by
at Florida the US Oklahoma, those two.

Speaker 2 (01:01:39):
It's the Florida game for me, So at Florida and
then Oklahoma's obviously neutral compa.

Speaker 4 (01:01:44):
That's right.

Speaker 2 (01:01:44):
Sorry, So they have two losable games there. I mean
they're getting I think they're six and a half point
favorites Florida nine and a half Oklahoma, but both losable.
They could they could split those.

Speaker 1 (01:01:56):
I have a feeling that those numbers will be lower
by the time we got close of the game. I
think both Florida and Oklahoma probably slightly better than market.

Speaker 2 (01:02:03):
Both are down. Oklahoma opened double digits and Florida was
getting seven and a half. I know, so both are down.

Speaker 1 (01:02:11):
Okay, let's move on to another game, guys. I don't
want to I don't want to take too long. We've
already gone an hour here, but this one is important.
Arizona Hawaii. The only reason I want to talk about
this game is there was a massive move on this
one earlier today and last night. This one came last
night thirteen and a half, fifty seven and a half.
You now see the numbers currently Arizona minus eighteen, eighteen

(01:02:32):
and a half and the total sitting at fifty two.
My guest, guys, and I'm just guessing here is some
of this has to do with the Hawaii side, which
I think is completely fair given what we saw in
the running game. I think the other part of this
is I wonder what the quarterback health situation is there

(01:02:52):
for Hawaii, and I do wonder if that's something that
we may need to see if we can get some
information there. Obviously, with the foot injury, you know, everything
that was going on there, I wonder if that's certainly
something that I've got now. I would say at this point,
if I was gonna bet this, I'd probably be looking
Hawaii just no way has an idea. You want fears

(01:03:17):
if you want to fund stat jewels, teams that play
week zero against teams that do not play Week zero.
In the past eleven years, jewels right now, in the
past eleven years. So just going back to I think
it was twenty fourteen was the last year that I
pulled on this one. Okay, a last eleven years cover
rate of seventy eight percent week one.

Speaker 2 (01:03:39):
I could have sworn that trend was like close to
the other way, No, because I remember that was popular
like oh, we have a game under our belt, but
it was really actually more valuable for a while to
have film of the other team when you hadn't played
seventy That surprises me.

Speaker 1 (01:03:54):
Yeah, and there last five years, jewels, so this might
be this might be a little bit more to you.
Last five years, that number is only sixty eight percent,
so maybe maybe it's down. Still not good, right, Okay,
So I'm telling you the week.

Speaker 2 (01:04:08):
Ride with the twenty two percent here.

Speaker 1 (01:04:10):
I'm just saying, I'm just saying I I I have
no no taking this one. I actually don't have any
any bets in this one. I think the number is
starting to get too crazy. And I'm a big guy.
I'm a big Arizona guy. This year, I think this.

Speaker 4 (01:04:23):
On Arizona, and I think the numbers got gotten a
little out of control too. If if the kid's healthy.

Speaker 1 (01:04:28):
Right now that that again, that it's it's always it's
always questionable, you know, health, health pertainning. You know what
I mean.

Speaker 2 (01:04:33):
This opened we have in parentheses. Here was thirteen and
a half. This open ten and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:04:39):
Right, The number after the game was thirteen.

Speaker 2 (01:04:42):
Yeah, yeah, no, I know it opened ten and a half.
I know Brad Powers gave it out early in the season.
Would have loved to have been there, and this.

Speaker 1 (01:04:51):
Was out the other night. He just gave it out.

Speaker 2 (01:04:52):
The gatut there again. Okay, so it was thirteen and
a half. Then given the Hawaii game. Yeah, the quarterback
limped off the field, hopped off the field, uh three times.
They didn't look good. They were at home. I didn't
like the coaching, didn't like the play call, didn't like
the ability to stop the run. I understand why. You
know we have a ten and a half open and

(01:05:13):
you can get eighteen. Now, I understand why you guys
might be interested in Hawaii. This one might be a Hey,
I don't care about the bad number. I'm still gonna
take Arizona game for me fair enough. However, However, like
I said towards the start of the pod, maybe I
don't need to lay with Arizona here and do what
I trust even more in and if I can get
again these are limited markets, these are markets not in

(01:05:35):
every state. But if I can get a running back
prop on Arizona, I'm going to take an over on that.

Speaker 1 (01:05:41):
Not legal in Massachusetts, just putting that a.

Speaker 2 (01:05:44):
Well, maybe I won't be in Massachusetts.

Speaker 1 (01:05:46):
Dan, Yeah, maybe you won't be, that's right.

Speaker 2 (01:05:47):
Or maybe I'm a man of many states.

Speaker 1 (01:05:49):
Maybe you are a man in many states, and maybe
you can go on the some of those offshore books
that we know you love so much, jewels and bet
it there.

Speaker 2 (01:05:56):
I will only love DraftKings sports books on drafting sports.

Speaker 1 (01:05:59):
Of course, I forgot. I will say this, Jules, I
will say this, how how do you feel about a
live under? Last week? That live under I think came
fifty one and a half early in that game. I
think maybe hot start from potentially your boys, Arizona. I
think maybe looking at a live under there might not
be the worst angle of this one either.

Speaker 4 (01:06:21):
Uh, partner, what what do you think about We've already
gone an hour in seven minutes here? What do you
what do you think about? Saving? I think that we
only have one or two games left and saving the
Clemson Alis two game for the pod. I think we
uh we wrap it here and save some goodies for
the pod.

Speaker 1 (01:06:39):
I want you to talk about one more game before
we wrap. Is that okay with you, guys? It's a
game all three of us have thoughts on it, and it's
you Mass Temple definitely not. It is Oregon State cow
which this number continuously is going down, down, down, which,
by the way, I am. I don't agree with this

(01:07:01):
at all, but I wanted to get your guys thoughts
because I know Jewels especially had a very strong take
on this one. Jules, tell me your thoughts on the
the Oregon State col game. Oregon State currently on the
money line minus won eighteen at four to one one
minus one and a half minus one nine is currently available.
I will tell you I took some Oregon State in
this one. I have a much worse price than this,

(01:07:23):
but Jewels want your thoughts on this game currently. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:07:28):
I wrote up an article on DK network on uh
Oregon State minus one forty eight money line and I
felt just fine about that. Now here we are at
like one t five. Okay, if you're gonna give me
that price, in Oregon State at home. Absolutely, go go
take that again. Here we are another PAC twelve after

(01:07:49):
dark game on Saturday night, Oregon State and Cal. Oh No,
it's an independent PAC two team against the acc whatever.

Speaker 1 (01:07:59):
It.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
I was leaning Oregon State in this game all summer,
and then we got the news that Devin Brown, Ohio
State transfer would not be Cal's starting quarterback. They're going
true freshmen. So okay, you're gonna build towards the future.
You like his potential. That makes sense in theory, but

(01:08:21):
your first start has to be Saturday night, late night
in Corvallis. That's a tough spot. Cal lost a ton
of talent on both sides of the ball. They're a
team I'm down on to begin with this season. They're
a team that was initially plus money to under five
and a half. Now they're like minus one fifty year
steeper to under five and a half wins. Oregon State

(01:08:43):
brings talent back too. I'm trying to bring this up here.
I think they returned like a significant piece of the
offensive line along with transfers.

Speaker 4 (01:08:55):
Well, I'll just start with while you start with the
trigger man, Malik Murphy, who.

Speaker 1 (01:08:58):
I like time.

Speaker 2 (01:09:00):
Yeah, quarterback you bring in a veteran from Duke Malik Murphy.
I'm picture you have like all your top receivers back in,
top two rushers, so with a good piece of the
offensive line, you transfer more in. So I'm really confident
in the offense. And then the defense looks like it improved.
They went four and three at home last year in
the first year new coaching regime, kind of shifting things

(01:09:21):
over three previous seasons, they were seventeen and two in
core Vallas. So like, if they can recapture any of
that mojo and make any progress forward in this new
coaching regime, bring the defense back a little bit. I
know they're experienced on offense. I feel really good. I
bet one unit at minus one forty eight. I might

(01:09:42):
add a unit at like minus one twenty range. I
really like Oregon State in this game.

Speaker 1 (01:09:48):
All of a sudden, yeah, I do feel again I
disagree with the move on this one freshman quarterback going
into Corvallas. And again I think the freshman quarterback, from
what I understand, this is not a he won the
job and we're starting him. For what I understand, this
is a necessity because I'll tell you this Brown did
not do well in calcamp this year, unfortunately. And again

(01:10:11):
I was a big brown guy obviously, being an Ohio
State guy, was an initial Ohio Steak Crew crew was
kind of rooting for him, but did not do well.
This is a starting out of necessity. Now you're going
into fucking corvallis your first start at night in what
I think is a very hostile environment. And not to
mention this, I'll say this too. Cal had a Bertieville
exodus recently off the roster. Wasn't just like a you know,

(01:10:35):
like a normal transfer period, it was a more recent
exodus for them. The other part of that, being guys,
is that this is a non conference game for them,
which when you don't have a conference with Oregon State,
does feel a little bit more important than a than
a just a regular non con game for a team
that obviously does not have any sort of championship aspirations.

(01:10:58):
So I am I'm just saying, obviously doesn't mean that much. Obviously,
both teams want to win. There's a lot of new
pieces here for this Colt team. Quarterback, running back, coach,
et cetera. Uh, there's a lot of new pieces there.
I think Oregon State upgraded at quarterbacks significantly with Milik Murphy.
I think that's a phenomenal game. I like the kid

(01:11:18):
a lot. I think he's a little bit undervalued, and
you got to face a true freshman in Core Vallas. Yeah,
I just I disagree with the movie. I understand the
thought process. I do think that Cal is probably a
little bit more talented than people are giving them credit for.
But I think the situation spot. Even though it's week
week one, I still think the situation was spot. Very
difficult to want to get behind this Cal team at

(01:11:40):
this number. I made the game. I made the game
three and a half. I'm way off market here. I'll
probably be on a in Oregon State play here as well.
I just I just disagree with the situation here. That
that's it for me. And you guys have anything else
you want to discuss here.

Speaker 2 (01:11:56):
We got to in two nights. We're gonna be back
with plenty more.

Speaker 1 (01:11:59):
Okay, there you go. So that is going to be
it for us tonight, everyone an hour and twelve minutes
talking about college football. Holy shit, it is truly college
football season, everyone, and we will be back Thursday with
our Week one college football podcast that will be available
Thursday afternoon. I'm going to try and push that out

(01:12:21):
for everyone. We'll record it Wednesday night, so I'll try
and get it out for everyone on Thursday afternoon. We'll
be back next week, of course with the Monday opener,
discussing the college football Week two lines, and we'll even
discuss some NFL Week one numbers on the move as well.
We we'll see you, guys, and it might be a
little bit later next week, might be pushing the might

(01:12:42):
be pushing it back a little bit to the seven thirty.

Speaker 4 (01:12:44):
So we will usually be this long on the opener either,
which is week one, so went a little longer here.
We like to keep it on there. Forty five minutes.

Speaker 1 (01:12:53):
Yeah, it will be. It'll be a forty five minute
show moving forward, guys, a little longer because there's no
Monday night football, but a little long. And we see
our guy Mike definitely enjoying some.

Speaker 2 (01:13:03):
Mike's getting hammered on.

Speaker 1 (01:13:04):
Viva tequila, Yo baby, Viva baby. All right, there you go,
So that's it for us. We'll catch everyone next week.
Appreciate everyone for listening again. The Boston Handicap Podcast, Dan Liftshaft,
Cigy Bets and of course Julian I Low of DK Network.
You like sharp bets just like the rest of us. Well,
here's one Viva Tequila Seltzer. It's the most refreshing seltzer

(01:13:26):
out there. Just eighty eight calories, zero carbs, zero sugar,
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don't sound good. They sound like a win. So when
your bets pay off, don't settle. Crack open Aviva, live long, live, well,
live it up. Viva