April 21, 2021 • 22 mins
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Your local radio station, Leslie Talk Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome along to Sonetti Talk Radios podcast. We are getting
closer and closer to the Seneth elections on the sixth
of May. We've had a number of polls over recent
(00:34):
months putting various parties in the lead. Labor predominantly have
been there at number one. A recent Paul put Labor
sort of falling down the listing, really losing a considerable
(00:55):
number of seats, making it one of the closest Seneth
elections in history twenty years. But the latest Paul actually
puts Labor way ahead again. What are the connotations for
that another labor government twenty years of laboring, wills no
(01:16):
change at all? Or could it be a coalition with
Critcamri with Ard and Price as the deputy First Minister.
To answer these questions, we have, as always our political
analyst Guinoro Jones in the studio. Chris or Guinoro you're
(01:42):
listening to the Clinically Online podcast. Gwinoro Jones, Welcome along
to the studio. Good to have you as usual. Let's
look at some of these polls and these predictions that
we have, and we should point out that they are
only predictions only polls, and only a certain percentage of
the population take part in these, sometimes a couple of thousands,
(02:05):
sometimes maybe you know, five, ten thousand. It depends on
who's conducting the polls. How accurate do you think they are?
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Well the polls generally, people, by the way, always say
that I noticed that all over the years, are there's
only a thousand people, last only two thousand people. And
I've never been asked at any opinion poll. Peoples generally
are not far off the mark. They're not supposed to
be accurate, and sometimes they're at a forecast of what's
(02:33):
going to happen. It's a that's how the mood is
when they were when they were questioned those thousand people.
I was involved in market research in my first job
with either little bearing, so I know a fair bit
about market research. These samples are closely put together as
a representative sample of the population as a whole, and
(02:56):
they are not far off the mark in that respect,
but very pole has plus or minus three percent as
a as a margin. In other words, if you have
thirty three percent voting labor in any poll, it could
be thirty six, or it could be thirty and so on.
The sword for other parties. So it is not an
(03:18):
accurate predictor, but it's a very good guide.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Looking at those results. Should they be sort of upheld,
then that Labor get in or without the majority, then
that they need somebody to come into coalition. We've looked
at some of the polls and you know, not surprisingly
probably for you, is that about twenty eight to thirty
percent of people are voting for independence for Wills, and
(03:43):
yet Adam Price is in third place behind the Conservatives
and New Arti Davis in the popularity contest really for
who would make the best first minister, and they stand
to be in third place for the number of seats
in the senith what do you make of that?
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Well, first of all, it's not automatic that they're going
to be third in the in the in the seats
as compared to the Tourist, it's going to be a
close run thing. Who's going to be second between Pride
and the Conservatives. I say that who knows the tourists
could outperform everybody for the first time in a long time.
But who knows? Politics is funny. Well, these which one
(04:25):
is the preference for prime minister or the most popular
tends to go with how you feel about politics. If
Labor are getting thirty thirty one percent, Drake wrote, has
a higher standing than Andrew or Adam. So I'm not
surprised by that. I think I've said before. The big
surprise for me is that ply Henry are not performing
(04:50):
up to the level that the polls show of support
for independence. Support for independence is invariably hire at the
vote for people who are going to vote for Plyicumbriy.
Now that is an issue for Pricumriy to sort out.
It is a strategic issue and it's not working, so
(05:11):
they need to look at that because it is a problem.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Clearly, it may become an issue for any subsequent government,
the Labor government, because if the people's will, the power
and so on aims that way is directed that way,
then maybe they will go down the road of referendum. Anyway,
that's for the future. Let's just look at the polls.
You said there, Now, you know you weren't quite confident
(05:34):
that that's the way it will follow that Plthcomery would
be third. But again when we look at the regional list,
Plydcomery a third. The prediction in the polls are that
they are behind the Conservatives.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Yeah, as I said, there's a bit about two or
three poles in recent times which have given different results.
As we've indicated, poles can be like that. What now
says that Labor has made a strong comeback. The toy
is a second play can be a third. One before
(06:08):
said the reverse Labor were in trouble, would go they
will going to lose seven or eight seats and plied
for a second. Are the Tories third? So it's we're
in that ballgame at the moment. There's still two weeks
to go, it's only a third of the way through.
It's an open season, and these poles will get closer
(06:30):
and closer to the decision as time goes on. So
I wouldn't necessarily be over worried if Applied a third.
At the moment, I think there's a bigger issue for
Applied is that they're not performing up to the percentage
of people who believe in independence for Wales. They're not
reaching that level. That is the question for them.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
There is another crucial element here in that. Okay, these polls,
I one would expect would take a cross section of society,
maybe a certain age group or whatever. Are you confident
maybe that that that would include an element of sixteen
year olds, this new generation, who are going to be
able to vote. And do you think that we are
going to see the polls really being proven wrong in
(07:18):
a way when if the sixteen year olds come out
on mass and if they do get interested in politics,
if they do come out there's a high turnout of
young people voting, do you think that will be the
surprise card that will propel either one of those parties
to a far greater number of seats.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Well, traditionally the young vote should favor Pricabrie. In this
day and age, that is the general feeling. But of
course there a medisus here. How many of the young
people have actually registered? Have they all registered? How belly
will turn out to vote? How committed will they be?
So there are variants there. This election is going to
(08:02):
be a funny election. It's in the middle of COVID,
campaigning has been restricted. What will the turnout be? Sadly,
turnout for Sender the elections and previously Assembly have not
been all that good, you know, quite quite unacceptable in
my terms, that only about half the people, if that
(08:23):
of the Welsh people bother to vote in their own Assembly.
Is it going to be a higher turnout or a
lower to it? So that is that is what this you.
So it's a difficult election to predict, and maybe the
polls could get it wrong. Who knows. It's difficult. A
lot of it depends on turnout to see, and because
(08:44):
then the portions between the parties will vary depending on turnout,
let's see what happens. Not going to be an easy
one to call.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I think the qunotations for a result that puts Labor
without the majority are quite wide reaching really that Obviously,
Labor could could form a coalition with with Plygomery, could
form a coalition with the Conservatives. Conversely, Conservatives could form
a coalition with Plyde and so on. And then there
(09:13):
comes a point where some of the minor parties will
make a big difference in a coalition. Should some of
the parties decide, you know, to go down that route.
Adam Prices ruled this out, you know, categorically, I would
Imaginete Davis would rule it out, Mark Drake would rule
o Jane Dodds certainly rule it out. Said I will
never ever, you know, going to coalition with Conservatives or
(09:36):
abolish or anyone else. But the reality is for them
is that they will possibly have to do that.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Well, the reality of any election has to be that
there's the result, it's on the table. What do we do.
So whatever they say beforehand is i material. You understand
why they're saying it, because if you say you go
to be in coalition with someone, then you're either go
to upset the chunk of your party that doesn't support
the other party. You're going into coalition whether they're not happy.
(10:05):
So that everybody's hedging their bets and playing it safe
and close to their chest. But remember we've had coalition
governments effectively the last five Senate elections. The only clear
cut labor victory was the first one in nineteen ninety nine.
Since then there's been a coalition with the Lib Dems.
(10:28):
There's been a coalition replied and the latest the last
one's course was Kirsty Williams and David Allis Thomas went
to do their personal coalitions with Curry Jones and Mark Drickford.
So we're used to trip we're used to coalitions. The
(10:48):
biggest attempt at the non labor coalition was in two
thousand and seven, of course, when it was a close
run thing that the Conservatives applied other Lib Dems would
form a government of his own. Now, that almost happened,
(11:09):
within a whisper, within a whisker, that almost almost happened.
I don't think we're in that situation again, because what
happened then was I understand, even though there were people
implied in favor of it, Leyandwood, wasn't. I think the
Liberal Democrats, even though they were moving towards that the coalition,
(11:29):
they had cold feet at the very last moment. So
I don't know. I don't know. It's difficult to say,
but I think why hand she is, Wales needs a shakeup.
You know, Wales needs We've spoken before in an earlier
podcast about the new politics. I think Wales does need
new politics. Same old, same old does no good. But
(11:53):
whether this is the time is going to happen, I
can't tell you that yet.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We you know, you take a drive around and you
go down through Snelly and you can see, you know,
at the at the Westminster elections and even though at
the Senate you know Lee Waters, the boards are up,
the windows are posteds are working class, traditional labor town,
Gwendroy Valley. You go through Pontietze, Ponti, ber m and
amand Foot and Swan. You can see the plied comriy
you know dominance there. Take a drive up towards mid
(12:21):
Wales Keddigion, well you'd be hard pushed to see anything
other than Ellen Jones posters and under David Llewellyn placards
and so on. I guess what you're saying there is
the no change, no change and same old, same old.
But for those particular communities, those unique sort of rural
locations such as Keerydigion, all that matters to them is
(12:43):
that they have applied Cumery representative and Ellen Jones is on.
She's on a safe seat, she's on a you know,
a very good wage. Do you think that's how it is.
Do you think that people take the national picture and
I'm more concerned with that, or do you they're just
happy to say locally, we want this and that's what
(13:03):
we're going to have. I don't think local politics is
as important as it should be for the Senate elections.
I think general politics, even general UK politics, affects the
voting in the Senate. Hence the Tories are doing very
very well in the polls at the moment, I would
(13:26):
much rather to have seen a situation where the local
candidates they have the predominance as opposed to parties. But
as we know, parties predominant. I have always taken the
view that parties are too important in politics and too weaken.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Parties is a good plus. But then I'm I'm an
odward out there, I suppose in many many ways. No,
what you have is pockets of the of Wales that
are traditional labor tradition, replied, one or two used to
be more liberal Democrats, chunks of Tory areas. That's how
(14:08):
it is, and that's how we speed for generations. How
we change that, I do not know. But the local
candidate plays a part, but not as big a part
as we think. I used to remember what I was
in politics back in the sixties, in the seventies, of
the eighties, of the nineties, that an individual candidate was
worth one thousand votes as a person, not more than that,
(14:32):
around one thousand. So therefore, yes, party politics plays the
main part.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Okay, so we're looking at some of the let's just
look at a couple of the ones that are are
going to be quite challenging. The seats we're looking at
internetly for instance, it's a very slim majority that Lee
Waters has a last election and the you know, the
forecast is that Helen Mary Jones may just steal this
(14:59):
and then the Gower we've got Rebecca Evans and forgive me,
I'm just trying to find the Miles Langston of the Conservatives.
Two ones to watch, and we will be reporting on
the night, hopefully with links to some of these people.
Those are those are going to be the big seats
to watch, aren't they?
Speaker 1 (15:20):
When there are yes, those in our area here, yes,
that's true. But across Wales there are about eight seats
that are going to be very interesting. Remember in the
twenty nineteen general election the Conservatives did very very well
in Wales and they won Anglesey, they run Wrexham, they
won Bridge End as examples. Now is that trend going
(15:45):
to happen again for the said of the elections? Is
Anglesy going to be conservative? Or for reading, is Gower
going to go conservative? It's an unknot question. What do
you talk OFTTI is a peculiar situation and it's very
odd really, It's hard to believe that you are talking
(16:08):
of Cleanelli being very very marginal an old labor seat
like that. But it has arrived at that situation now
and is Helen Mary in with a chance and I
think she is. She's had one or two bad political
publicity issues in recent times, so has Lee of course
(16:29):
during the COVID guidance iterves. I don't know anything would happen.
As I said earlier, it's a peculiar election. What will
turn out be the postal vote will be high across Wales.
What's going to be the implication of that? Which party
will benefit most from the postal votes? These are a
(16:52):
knowables at the moment, but there are certainly six to
eight seats in Wales worth looking at Rex a bridge
ed goer, but Birth of course because but both the
city Tory am was ditched. Wasn't the Nick Rumsey? Yeah,
(17:13):
but he's studying as an independent against the Conservative now
cold Liberal win in Manemouth highly possible if the dependent
Ruddy and the Conservative split the right ring vote.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Well that's my next question there with the form ringing
it doesn't matter. My next question to you really is
that looking at the Goer, I mean there are seven
candidates there, you know, two realistic being of the chance.
Myis Langstone and Rebecca Events, the rest Coomery collad Reform,
Green Party, Liberal Democrats. Do you think we talked about
(17:50):
new politics. Do you think that in those situations that
those people should give way, much like you know when
the speaker is on the floor in Parliament, that they
should give way withdraw and and not risk losing their
deposit and so on. When the reality is these two
parties are massive and they cannot compete, but they will
(18:11):
take away the chances of one or other winning because
of that sort of minimal amount of vote that they
are stealing away.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Politics is a funny gay baland if you're if you
are in politics, politics one thing for sure, you've got
to be an optimist. You don't get anyway if you
don't believe in your cause. And if you don't believe, well,
I'm going to do fairly well, not necessarily win, do
fairly well. So obviously lived Ebs and Gower, lad Propel
(18:44):
Reform UK. In many ways they new kids of the
blog though or the block, those last three they've got
to put them name forward. If you want to make
an advance in politics, you've got to take it one
step at the time. So no, they should stand down.
If you're talking of standing down, I'm far more interested
(19:05):
in a bigger picture. When you come to the next
general election, I think the parties of the center left
need to get together. I mean Labor, Liberal Democrats, applic
Henry in order to counteract the threat too Whales via
Westminster in the attempt to undermine democracy. But now I'm
(19:27):
talking Progressive Alliance, progressive politics. But of course that also
is not easily accepted every party. Why should they ever
give in a seat and let clients stand instead if
they even though they think that would be a better chance,
they don't do it. People just don't do these things. No,
(19:50):
I have no problem with parties studing, fighting their corner,
stating their case. Otherwise, how do you advance Otherwise? If
none of that had happen, we'd always would have had
Labor and Torri since nineteen ten, nineteen eighteen or whatever,
or before that, you would have had Conservative and Liberal
(20:13):
before the Labor Party came into being. There's got to
be an advancement, doesn't there. No, I've got no problem
with that. What is a disseries? Of course? Will they
lose their deposits? What will be the financial impact upon them?
Morale the future of that's a different issue.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Your local radio station, Leslie Talk Radio. You've been listening
to the Tetley Talk Radio podcast with myself, Alan Evans
and Gwynoro Jones. We hope you've enjoyed listening into our
(20:54):
sort of political commentary political analysis as the Senith elections
fast approach. As always, we'd love to hear from you
your suggestions, your questions for Cleanelli Talk Radio. Email editor
at clanellionline dot news. Will the politicians honor the pledges,
(21:29):
the contracts with the people of Willes You decide who
governs Willes at the Senate elections on May the sixth.
We would love to hear from you listening to our
next podcast, which looks in depth at the manifestos of
the various political parties. For now, this is me Alan
(21:55):
Evan saying goodbye man.
Your local radio station, Leslie Talk Radio.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome along to Sonetti Talk Radios podcast. We are getting
closer and closer to the Seneth elections on the sixth
of May. We've had a number of polls over recent
(00:34):
months putting various parties in the lead. Labor predominantly have
been there at number one. A recent Paul put Labor
sort of falling down the listing, really losing a considerable
(00:55):
number of seats, making it one of the closest Seneth
elections in history twenty years. But the latest Paul actually
puts Labor way ahead again. What are the connotations for
that another labor government twenty years of laboring, wills no
(01:16):
change at all? Or could it be a coalition with
Critcamri with Ard and Price as the deputy First Minister.
To answer these questions, we have, as always our political
analyst Guinoro Jones in the studio. Chris or Guinoro you're
(01:42):
listening to the Clinically Online podcast. Gwinoro Jones, Welcome along
to the studio. Good to have you as usual. Let's
look at some of these polls and these predictions that
we have, and we should point out that they are
only predictions only polls, and only a certain percentage of
the population take part in these, sometimes a couple of thousands,
(02:05):
sometimes maybe you know, five, ten thousand. It depends on
who's conducting the polls. How accurate do you think they are?
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Well the polls generally, people, by the way, always say
that I noticed that all over the years, are there's
only a thousand people, last only two thousand people. And
I've never been asked at any opinion poll. Peoples generally
are not far off the mark. They're not supposed to
be accurate, and sometimes they're at a forecast of what's
(02:33):
going to happen. It's a that's how the mood is
when they were when they were questioned those thousand people.
I was involved in market research in my first job
with either little bearing, so I know a fair bit
about market research. These samples are closely put together as
a representative sample of the population as a whole, and
(02:56):
they are not far off the mark in that respect,
but very pole has plus or minus three percent as
a as a margin. In other words, if you have
thirty three percent voting labor in any poll, it could
be thirty six, or it could be thirty and so on.
The sword for other parties. So it is not an
(03:18):
accurate predictor, but it's a very good guide.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Looking at those results. Should they be sort of upheld,
then that Labor get in or without the majority, then
that they need somebody to come into coalition. We've looked
at some of the polls and you know, not surprisingly
probably for you, is that about twenty eight to thirty
percent of people are voting for independence for Wills, and
(03:43):
yet Adam Price is in third place behind the Conservatives
and New Arti Davis in the popularity contest really for
who would make the best first minister, and they stand
to be in third place for the number of seats
in the senith what do you make of that?
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Well, first of all, it's not automatic that they're going
to be third in the in the in the seats
as compared to the Tourist, it's going to be a
close run thing. Who's going to be second between Pride
and the Conservatives. I say that who knows the tourists
could outperform everybody for the first time in a long time.
But who knows? Politics is funny. Well, these which one
(04:25):
is the preference for prime minister or the most popular
tends to go with how you feel about politics. If
Labor are getting thirty thirty one percent, Drake wrote, has
a higher standing than Andrew or Adam. So I'm not
surprised by that. I think I've said before. The big
surprise for me is that ply Henry are not performing
(04:50):
up to the level that the polls show of support
for independence. Support for independence is invariably hire at the
vote for people who are going to vote for Plyicumbriy.
Now that is an issue for Pricumriy to sort out.
It is a strategic issue and it's not working, so
(05:11):
they need to look at that because it is a problem.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Clearly, it may become an issue for any subsequent government,
the Labor government, because if the people's will, the power
and so on aims that way is directed that way,
then maybe they will go down the road of referendum. Anyway,
that's for the future. Let's just look at the polls.
You said there, Now, you know you weren't quite confident
(05:34):
that that's the way it will follow that Plthcomery would
be third. But again when we look at the regional list,
Plydcomery a third. The prediction in the polls are that
they are behind the Conservatives.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Yeah, as I said, there's a bit about two or
three poles in recent times which have given different results.
As we've indicated, poles can be like that. What now
says that Labor has made a strong comeback. The toy
is a second play can be a third. One before
(06:08):
said the reverse Labor were in trouble, would go they
will going to lose seven or eight seats and plied
for a second. Are the Tories third? So it's we're
in that ballgame at the moment. There's still two weeks
to go, it's only a third of the way through.
It's an open season, and these poles will get closer
(06:30):
and closer to the decision as time goes on. So
I wouldn't necessarily be over worried if Applied a third.
At the moment, I think there's a bigger issue for
Applied is that they're not performing up to the percentage
of people who believe in independence for Wales. They're not
reaching that level. That is the question for them.
Speaker 2 (06:54):
There is another crucial element here in that. Okay, these polls,
I one would expect would take a cross section of society,
maybe a certain age group or whatever. Are you confident
maybe that that that would include an element of sixteen
year olds, this new generation, who are going to be
able to vote. And do you think that we are
going to see the polls really being proven wrong in
(07:18):
a way when if the sixteen year olds come out
on mass and if they do get interested in politics,
if they do come out there's a high turnout of
young people voting, do you think that will be the
surprise card that will propel either one of those parties
to a far greater number of seats.
Speaker 1 (07:39):
Well, traditionally the young vote should favor Pricabrie. In this
day and age, that is the general feeling. But of
course there a medisus here. How many of the young
people have actually registered? Have they all registered? How belly
will turn out to vote? How committed will they be?
So there are variants there. This election is going to
(08:02):
be a funny election. It's in the middle of COVID,
campaigning has been restricted. What will the turnout be? Sadly,
turnout for Sender the elections and previously Assembly have not
been all that good, you know, quite quite unacceptable in
my terms, that only about half the people, if that
(08:23):
of the Welsh people bother to vote in their own Assembly.
Is it going to be a higher turnout or a
lower to it? So that is that is what this you.
So it's a difficult election to predict, and maybe the
polls could get it wrong. Who knows. It's difficult. A
lot of it depends on turnout to see, and because
(08:44):
then the portions between the parties will vary depending on turnout,
let's see what happens. Not going to be an easy
one to call.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I think the qunotations for a result that puts Labor
without the majority are quite wide reaching really that Obviously,
Labor could could form a coalition with with Plygomery, could
form a coalition with the Conservatives. Conversely, Conservatives could form
a coalition with Plyde and so on. And then there
(09:13):
comes a point where some of the minor parties will
make a big difference in a coalition. Should some of
the parties decide, you know, to go down that route.
Adam Prices ruled this out, you know, categorically, I would
Imaginete Davis would rule it out, Mark Drake would rule
o Jane Dodds certainly rule it out. Said I will
never ever, you know, going to coalition with Conservatives or
(09:36):
abolish or anyone else. But the reality is for them
is that they will possibly have to do that.
Speaker 1 (09:43):
Well, the reality of any election has to be that
there's the result, it's on the table. What do we do.
So whatever they say beforehand is i material. You understand
why they're saying it, because if you say you go
to be in coalition with someone, then you're either go
to upset the chunk of your party that doesn't support
the other party. You're going into coalition whether they're not happy.
(10:05):
So that everybody's hedging their bets and playing it safe
and close to their chest. But remember we've had coalition
governments effectively the last five Senate elections. The only clear
cut labor victory was the first one in nineteen ninety nine.
Since then there's been a coalition with the Lib Dems.
(10:28):
There's been a coalition replied and the latest the last
one's course was Kirsty Williams and David Allis Thomas went
to do their personal coalitions with Curry Jones and Mark Drickford.
So we're used to trip we're used to coalitions. The
(10:48):
biggest attempt at the non labor coalition was in two
thousand and seven, of course, when it was a close
run thing that the Conservatives applied other Lib Dems would
form a government of his own. Now, that almost happened,
(11:09):
within a whisper, within a whisker, that almost almost happened.
I don't think we're in that situation again, because what
happened then was I understand, even though there were people
implied in favor of it, Leyandwood, wasn't. I think the
Liberal Democrats, even though they were moving towards that the coalition,
(11:29):
they had cold feet at the very last moment. So
I don't know. I don't know. It's difficult to say,
but I think why hand she is, Wales needs a shakeup.
You know, Wales needs We've spoken before in an earlier
podcast about the new politics. I think Wales does need
new politics. Same old, same old does no good. But
(11:53):
whether this is the time is going to happen, I
can't tell you that yet.
Speaker 2 (11:58):
We you know, you take a drive around and you
go down through Snelly and you can see, you know,
at the at the Westminster elections and even though at
the Senate you know Lee Waters, the boards are up,
the windows are posteds are working class, traditional labor town,
Gwendroy Valley. You go through Pontietze, Ponti, ber m and
amand Foot and Swan. You can see the plied comriy
you know dominance there. Take a drive up towards mid
(12:21):
Wales Keddigion, well you'd be hard pushed to see anything
other than Ellen Jones posters and under David Llewellyn placards
and so on. I guess what you're saying there is
the no change, no change and same old, same old.
But for those particular communities, those unique sort of rural
locations such as Keerydigion, all that matters to them is
(12:43):
that they have applied Cumery representative and Ellen Jones is on.
She's on a safe seat, she's on a you know,
a very good wage. Do you think that's how it is.
Do you think that people take the national picture and
I'm more concerned with that, or do you they're just
happy to say locally, we want this and that's what
(13:03):
we're going to have. I don't think local politics is
as important as it should be for the Senate elections.
I think general politics, even general UK politics, affects the
voting in the Senate. Hence the Tories are doing very
very well in the polls at the moment, I would
(13:26):
much rather to have seen a situation where the local
candidates they have the predominance as opposed to parties. But
as we know, parties predominant. I have always taken the
view that parties are too important in politics and too weaken.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
Parties is a good plus. But then I'm I'm an
odward out there, I suppose in many many ways. No,
what you have is pockets of the of Wales that
are traditional labor tradition, replied, one or two used to
be more liberal Democrats, chunks of Tory areas. That's how
(14:08):
it is, and that's how we speed for generations. How
we change that, I do not know. But the local
candidate plays a part, but not as big a part
as we think. I used to remember what I was
in politics back in the sixties, in the seventies, of
the eighties, of the nineties, that an individual candidate was
worth one thousand votes as a person, not more than that,
(14:32):
around one thousand. So therefore, yes, party politics plays the
main part.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Okay, so we're looking at some of the let's just
look at a couple of the ones that are are
going to be quite challenging. The seats we're looking at
internetly for instance, it's a very slim majority that Lee
Waters has a last election and the you know, the
forecast is that Helen Mary Jones may just steal this
(14:59):
and then the Gower we've got Rebecca Evans and forgive me,
I'm just trying to find the Miles Langston of the Conservatives.
Two ones to watch, and we will be reporting on
the night, hopefully with links to some of these people.
Those are those are going to be the big seats
to watch, aren't they?
Speaker 1 (15:20):
When there are yes, those in our area here, yes,
that's true. But across Wales there are about eight seats
that are going to be very interesting. Remember in the
twenty nineteen general election the Conservatives did very very well
in Wales and they won Anglesey, they run Wrexham, they
won Bridge End as examples. Now is that trend going
(15:45):
to happen again for the said of the elections? Is
Anglesy going to be conservative? Or for reading, is Gower
going to go conservative? It's an unknot question. What do
you talk OFTTI is a peculiar situation and it's very
odd really, It's hard to believe that you are talking
(16:08):
of Cleanelli being very very marginal an old labor seat
like that. But it has arrived at that situation now
and is Helen Mary in with a chance and I
think she is. She's had one or two bad political
publicity issues in recent times, so has Lee of course
(16:29):
during the COVID guidance iterves. I don't know anything would happen.
As I said earlier, it's a peculiar election. What will
turn out be the postal vote will be high across Wales.
What's going to be the implication of that? Which party
will benefit most from the postal votes? These are a
(16:52):
knowables at the moment, but there are certainly six to
eight seats in Wales worth looking at Rex a bridge
ed goer, but Birth of course because but both the
city Tory am was ditched. Wasn't the Nick Rumsey? Yeah,
(17:13):
but he's studying as an independent against the Conservative now
cold Liberal win in Manemouth highly possible if the dependent
Ruddy and the Conservative split the right ring vote.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
Well that's my next question there with the form ringing
it doesn't matter. My next question to you really is
that looking at the Goer, I mean there are seven
candidates there, you know, two realistic being of the chance.
Myis Langstone and Rebecca Events, the rest Coomery collad Reform,
Green Party, Liberal Democrats. Do you think we talked about
(17:50):
new politics. Do you think that in those situations that
those people should give way, much like you know when
the speaker is on the floor in Parliament, that they
should give way withdraw and and not risk losing their
deposit and so on. When the reality is these two
parties are massive and they cannot compete, but they will
(18:11):
take away the chances of one or other winning because
of that sort of minimal amount of vote that they
are stealing away.
Speaker 1 (18:20):
Politics is a funny gay baland if you're if you
are in politics, politics one thing for sure, you've got
to be an optimist. You don't get anyway if you
don't believe in your cause. And if you don't believe, well,
I'm going to do fairly well, not necessarily win, do
fairly well. So obviously lived Ebs and Gower, lad Propel
(18:44):
Reform UK. In many ways they new kids of the
blog though or the block, those last three they've got
to put them name forward. If you want to make
an advance in politics, you've got to take it one
step at the time. So no, they should stand down.
If you're talking of standing down, I'm far more interested
(19:05):
in a bigger picture. When you come to the next
general election, I think the parties of the center left
need to get together. I mean Labor, Liberal Democrats, applic
Henry in order to counteract the threat too Whales via
Westminster in the attempt to undermine democracy. But now I'm
(19:27):
talking Progressive Alliance, progressive politics. But of course that also
is not easily accepted every party. Why should they ever
give in a seat and let clients stand instead if
they even though they think that would be a better chance,
they don't do it. People just don't do these things. No,
(19:50):
I have no problem with parties studing, fighting their corner,
stating their case. Otherwise, how do you advance Otherwise? If
none of that had happen, we'd always would have had
Labor and Torri since nineteen ten, nineteen eighteen or whatever,
or before that, you would have had Conservative and Liberal
(20:13):
before the Labor Party came into being. There's got to
be an advancement, doesn't there. No, I've got no problem
with that. What is a disseries? Of course? Will they
lose their deposits? What will be the financial impact upon them?
Morale the future of that's a different issue.
Speaker 2 (20:31):
Your local radio station, Leslie Talk Radio. You've been listening
to the Tetley Talk Radio podcast with myself, Alan Evans
and Gwynoro Jones. We hope you've enjoyed listening into our
(20:54):
sort of political commentary political analysis as the Senith elections
fast approach. As always, we'd love to hear from you
your suggestions, your questions for Cleanelli Talk Radio. Email editor
at clanellionline dot news. Will the politicians honor the pledges,
(21:29):
the contracts with the people of Willes You decide who
governs Willes at the Senate elections on May the sixth.
We would love to hear from you listening to our
next podcast, which looks in depth at the manifestos of
the various political parties. For now, this is me Alan
(21:55):
Evan saying goodbye man.
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