June 23, 2025 • 60 mins
In this explosive debut episode of Chakravyuh, India Today’s Gaurav Sawant is joined by Lt Gen Raj Shukla (Retd) to unpack the chaos behind The Great Wall of China. Why has Xi removed almost 100 top PLA generals? Are we witnessing the biggest power purge since Mao? How should India—especially after Operation Sindoor—read between the red lines? What we know so far: Xi’s closest military aides have disappeared Some generals have died by suicide, others jailed The buzz in Beijing: growing internal dissent or deep-rooted corruption? As speculation mounts and China’s military faces its biggest leadership churn in decades, this podcast reveals what’s really at stake—for China, for India, and for Asia’s future.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is India Today podcasts Namaskar and jahind I'm God
a seventh. India was able to sort out Pakistan in
Operation Sindur, But is there a bigger challenge for India.
What's happening on the other side of the China Wall?
(00:21):
How strong is the Chinese army, the PLA People's Liberation Army.
We've seen the Chinese equipment. Is that actually the best
that China has to offer? Because an O Sindur Indian
assessment was that the Chinese equipment isn't as good as
they claimed.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
It would be.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Chle to Chantak, Nato Rattak and who better than left
Genil Raj Shukla, former Army commander, our track to tell
us more about what's happening on the other side of
the Chinese Wall. Of the China WALLUKA, welcome on India Today.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
So thank you or sub speltho KA podcast is kiagas
perapco should come. I hope you do well and all
the best, good luck.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Thank you very much up and you know, with the
God's grace and your good wishes, hopefully we will. But
how well is she Jinping doing?
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yes? So you know China, let's look at it this way.
If you just go back a couple of years, twenty
fifteen twenty sixteen was when the strategic competition between China
and US started intensifying, and it did seem for a
while that the China story would exceed the American rejuvenation.
(01:45):
So I'll just give you two points, you know, two
three points to say, say why I say that. Look
at Deep Sea ken Qan. It has leveled the AI race.
The Americans thought they were ten to twelve years ahead
of China, and suddenly Deep Seek and Ai. So this,
you know, led one to think that China was not
(02:08):
a copycat story. There was something deep innovation. Is that
let's look at the military balance in the First Island
chain on Admiral Paparo's admission, so American admission, the Chinese
ratio of ship combatant ships China to USA six point
(02:31):
eight is to one wall over the.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Last fast they're building the ship.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
And see what they're doing. The escalations have increased three
hundred percent over last year. Twenty seventeen, they employed two brigades.
This year they employed forty two brigades. The amphibious ships
which are exercising two thirds of their fleet is exercising,
(02:57):
so they hat starts from ten percent two thirds. Next
time it may just be the attack. So Paparo has
been warning that these are no longer exercises, they are
rehearsals for attack to ach thre of two Yeah, no so,
and all kinds of stuff when it comes to their hardware.
But I have been observing this and now it's over
(03:19):
the South China Morning Post and everywhere else. Apart from
their other issues of real estate collapse, unemployment, inflation growth
being as low as three percent, comes this bad news
of Z being cornered politically and his PLA letting him down.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
So that's the very big point you're making. And I
want to pick up on this thread. Shi Jinping is
called chairman of everything, but is that chairman of everything
truly being cornered? And if I if I pick up
one aspect real estate has been written about extensively, the
real estate collapse. Why is the PLA and is the
(03:57):
PLA collapsing? With reports of between seventy to one hundred
generals being purged in ten years, that's a huge number.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
What would you make of it? So the PLA is
the personal project of Z. If you go back ten
fifteen years Z realized that if China has to grow,
the PLA was outdated technologically, a lagguard. So he invested
in the PLA. And people say that the PLA has
(04:29):
undergone the most massive military modernization in the history of mankind,
history of mankind, and it has to be understood. Z
ten twelve years back used to spend six days in
the artllery school, four days in their evation academy, so
he nursed it. He made mind boggling changes, getting Naval
(04:51):
Air Force officers into the Central Military Commission, appointing some
of his best minds to the Rocket Force Strategic Support
Force see Strategic Support for Jabrezui the Salpele. It was
the world's first effort to ai enable the military. He
was thinking years and years ahead, but what has happened
(05:13):
of late? He constantly got reports of two to three things.
One is corruption, One is taking money for promotions. This
is a deep malase in the PLA, taking you pay
your way through promotions. And the third was that after
ten years of investments over the last two years, when
he's going and asking these people that are you ready
(05:35):
for the Taiwan contingency, all kinds of excuses. So seventy
two hundred generals have either been sacked or they have
left to their suicide for three to four reasons, corruption,
for incompetence, and for not being ready for the Taiwan contingency.
Not just see two hundred is not a small number.
(05:58):
And now his ticle rivals hu Jintaou and benja Abau
and all they've been saying, what is happening to your pla,
These are all your choices, They were not our choices.
You personally picked them. And two defense ministers get sacked
and rocket falls generally yvo. And then what happened of
late the day I tweeted the week before that will
(06:19):
schedule subsist? As the Kido generals think I put their
names in their tweet.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
He whom June and he we don't.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yeah, so they're all he who something. But the point
is his closest generals committed suicide or they were executed
or skipash or Jo Karibi, they were arrested. One of
them is commander and Northern Theater Command. It's like our
Western Army commander committing suicide Eastern Army commander. This sets
me to think that while they're hardware may be good.
(06:49):
Maybe question mark, is there hard work actually good, but
he'll come to that question. But their software is definitely
in trouble. Agraki so leads top generals are caught up
in all this, and therefore these politicians have chosen their
moment to corner him on this or on Kejo Central
(07:10):
Military Commission chairman and j what's his name, zang Zuzia
U zang Zuzia was not from the Z camp, but
now he's controlling the shots. And these five and two
have been accused of plotting against Anzuzia. So for the
first time in the PLA, he's being cornered. And now
(07:32):
Hu Jintao, whom he humilated a year back or something
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
In fact, both the swedempt what are viewers to look
at those images? How unceremoniously a former president was lifted
and evicted from the meeting.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
He's got back and he's got support. Ben Ziabia has
got support. So I'm not saying that there are visible cracks,
but there are certainly signs of something not being right.
So let's take this is just one more point I
want to make. See why this Taiwan is so important
(08:07):
to him, our previous presidents they came, so Deng said
hide and buyed. Z said loud and proud a moment
and will go loud and proud. And when he was
asked give buy up Jack Brkichacha, he said, enough of wealth.
Now the time has come to convert that wealth into power,
(08:31):
into strength. Taiwan plain part of the BOULDERYE are attacker hard.
I'll give you one piece of statistics. USA today has
just seven days of missiles musicians to fight in Taiwan.
China is churning out ten thousand cruise missiles a week
(08:54):
a week. The hardware metho, the co American admissions that
Chinese or zipping past.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
But he's a software failure.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Rapness.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
I come to Shindur in just a moment, sir, and
I'm very keen to talk about Sindur because just that
has a Chinese equipment. One section of the media or
one section of the you know experts, they're hailing the
jay ncs and then the pl fifteen's and the other
are saying, but I want to stay for a moment
(09:28):
on he hum Jun and he widow the CMC vice
president if the Central Military Commission vice chairman is being
driven to commit streetside. What does that indicate?
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I'm telling you deeply wedding signs and therefore, I really
I'm wondering why the Indian media has not picked this
up India today I did thank you and thank you
for hirating this in the podcast. Now it needs deeper investigation.
Off the offline, we were talking of intelligence. I'll give
you interesting bit about intelligence. Deep Seek it shocked the world.
(10:07):
You ask any chap in the computer space it space American,
he will tell you it didn't come as a surprise.
We were seeing them coming to that. Who was taken
by surprise? The national security community. If the American national
security community couldn't spot Deep Sea, what about us? They
are our neighbor. True, we should be looking at these things.
(10:30):
So you just see how weak intelligence across national security
communities is if you didn't spot Deep Seek, these Americans DIDs.
The lesson is what God that we have to step
up our game in all these issues or intelligence and
absolutely and the professionals know about it. To johamare In, yeah,
(10:53):
the professional Hey, DEPTHNYM analysis may all these things are
not important.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Now if there was a revolt by former premier and
reformist wen Jiabao. What is your assessment of Hu Jintao
October twenty twenty two was when he.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Was ushered out and rather unceremoniously. Is he now as
former president? And in China they anyways say that elders
are respected. She didn't respect the elders. Is he in
in a sticky on a sticky wicket there?
Speaker 2 (11:34):
So they go, I mean the Chinese system is opaque.
But in the Chinese system, if you go back to
the visuals dispute Kathy Joe Politburoka composition Tha he was
assured that they will be certain names. Now when he
wants to pick that up to see you notice or
(11:59):
so it was a breach of promise. So they may
be a communist country, but they also have deals. Deals
are to be honored abij officially though my name ah
Benjobia is only yai ki. Why did you violate the deal?
You backstapped us internal gatherings, I'm told that there is
very open speech making. So while they may be communists,
(12:23):
internally they speak and internally they also have stature. They
have backers, both Menjabau and all I think one month
back they were a series of meetings where they hounded
z on him and the words they used was let
us get us back to transparency, rule of law and
standards and collectively and not individually. You picked a very
(12:44):
good point because the Chinese Apex political apex had concluded
that we should no longer have personalities like Mao because
cultural revolution they killed millions and.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
All that too.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Leadership should be collected. So in the previous areas of
Jiang zy Men and all, while there was a face,
it was collective. He changed that became too powerful. It
seems that his power is receding now and Mansunai it
has to combined with some serious ailments he's going through
(13:18):
apparently strain, some surgery, so you know, everything has come
together health PLA. But what will hurt him most is
the PLA because he really invested in the PLA and
it has let him down at least in terms of
corruption and all this.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
So let's for a moment focus on PLA. There are
analysts who are now saying, and you've been, you've been
tracking PLA very closely. It's very brittle. It may look strong,
but egdaka or though or what to tegi is that
(13:53):
your assessment.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
See My assessment of PLA is like this if you
go by their capacity investments. An example, Chinese manufacturing civilian
capacities in manufacturing in two thousand and two half of
that of USA civil. By twenty twenty two, their manufacturing
(14:17):
capacities civil become twice of that of USA. In consequence,
their military industrial complex today is five to six times
more efficient than USA. To yejo Chize Henna ten to
thousand cruise missiles a week manufacturing capacities j thirty six
(14:39):
million million drone swarms are being swarmed along the LAC
five G military robotics to smical name, but part of
it is cognitive warfare jes. The true chaps who have
churned out that drone mothership is the Ukrainians. They've worked
(15:00):
on it for three years JS Ukraine nik yeah AI
enabled FORHOTNICALI, and the whole world is thinking they have
gotten awn. Mother is just beginning an AI enabled so
couch yeahe their air forces suspect because they really haven't
you know, and they've never been tested in an air
war abi jos J ten J seventeen. They don't seem
(15:24):
to have done too well, so I say that they
have some capacities. Some of it is social media fluff.
What is happening in their general ship is very welcome news.
But you can't plan on the basis that they will crumble,
So you have to plan on facts, yes, and then
if they.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Crumble, good for us Zada. They just have Pakistan Zada strong.
Akha I just you know, did we assess that Pakistanis
are stronger than they were the manner in which they
fought on day one and the mander in which they
just collapsed on May nine ten. Let's look at the
military heart way of the pakistaniese Kurtsea China J ten
(16:04):
C fighter jets twenty twenty one, thirty six aircraft HQ
nine SAM system twenty nineteen, one h Q nine SAM
missiles seventy since twenty nineteen, the C H four A
the medium Multitude Long Endurance drone since twenty nineteen ten.
The PLC won at one hundred and fifty five mmspg
(16:25):
is self propelled gun twenty eighteen onwards, two hundred and
thirty six Wing Loong to armed drones forty eight Wing
Loong one armed drone since twenty nineteen forty eight. The radars,
and you've studied radars so extensively. Their their you know
one fifty air searcher radar, the YLC two A, the
(16:45):
h Q seven SAM system, and I have this entire
list YLC two, YLC six, YLC eighteen gap filler radars,
the HQ nine B, h Q sixteen, HQ seven sharads, FMA,
t FM ninety FN six manportable ed system. Yes, sub
Pakistani pas he to Hamari missile basis called nine terror
(17:07):
bases called.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
LAMB. But I'll simplify it for you. You name one
equipment on the park in Wentry which is not Chinese.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Eight Chinese nines.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
When I was commanding the division in Baramullah Joey opposite
in engineer's infrastructures charged Pakistani to b I they are
making their milky bridges in Fra. It doesn't surprise me
one bit. Pakistan army is nothing but Chinese army in manpower,
(17:51):
in equipment. What they have done off late is Turkey
over droneses is bar Dan was se We missed this
came to Pakistan Indonesia militia. He's positioning himself as the
new caliph, caliph and caliph with Western proficiencies to NATO Army,
(18:12):
Neatro military, Pasabi, but Islamic world. And when he visited
these three countries he did major military deals are President
Katcha in Pakistan, Marisa.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
The corvette and I think.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Gizbar Kawaki he just had come two months back to
Saman Mariss So Pakistan, is China and Turkey. That should
surprise us one bit. These people who are questioning us.
You know, Peli Ratko some losses, Barti said it. We
(18:53):
will not quantify it because you don't quantify. You tell
me what did you lose? Argument losses? Gay but boxing
about just my pass around America? Bye up rathme so
you were naked, vulnerable, exposed, Hey nor Khan when we
(19:19):
were in my career, we hit these bases only in
war games. He's two under Cub not Punjab. What you're saying,
raval Okay, I commanded thirty ten core opposite thirty Marcus
(19:41):
and I not a Marcas. It is a training academy
which swimming pool, obstacle course, mind training ring. You know
when mind training ring training in conference halls, classrooms, it
will push put an I m to shame was not
being released. There was a thought of firing rams and
(20:01):
the General Rava had come to my headquarters and we
had discussed whether we will can engage it. But released
is bam Kumara. This is dream. We were told that
if you touch Punjab, you know he will not spare you.
What did he do? What did you do? Or tenth
morning May when nor Khan base was hit and unreliable information,
(20:26):
I can tell you their command and control complex was
hit Jupula Air Power Cook that's why the DJMO came
currying for cover for a if your Jayden seventeen were
so good, we were there on the second, third and
fourth night. Tell me where was your fancy h Q nine.
(20:49):
So it was a complete collapse of the air force.
Any sharp military mind will know it. Complete collapse. I'm related.
The reason is, you know we used to talk of
limited air superiority here they had lost air control. Can
you imagine your skies are bear it? Bear they know
(21:14):
it because they actually prided themselves on the Physiah and
we must grant it. Passia held on the first night.
Phasia held held on the first night. The supremacy, superiority
or the pride of the Pakistan Air Force. The other
thing is, since you've raised it, we are very poor
in strategic communications. When he whatever losses inflicted on the
(21:39):
first night, Orze was doing a podcast with air chiefs
and all and selling it to the world. What has
happened in our case since we were a little late,
Why that we should correct what happened that by the
time we sent out our messages the narrative in the
West had hardened.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
But the West? Why does the West dislike us? But
I'll come to that question in just a moment, because
you know that that's a topic I really want to
talk on. But we will digress.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
I want to us come to the West. I want
to make some points about the West.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
Okay, you know since you mentioned Chinese equipment the Indian force. Okay,
day one, he had his J tencs and he has
its J seventeen's, which.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
We have about first round. Martha Pakistan, I hate you,
but boss on the fifth day so you were lying
knocked down? So when the chap is knocked down, do
you say, man so that the wise military analyst should
(22:46):
ask this? Now, I come to this West, I mean
I really questioned their i Q one is for this
will you go by the outcomes or this clerical question.
Are you here a military and is the other thing
I questioned them or just nuclear theology. See I'll give
you an ar. I was a left in colonel when
(23:07):
Parkrum happened in two thousand and two, and I was
Inchuk right next to Now what happens? You remember terrible
I covered it. This generation will not know, but you must.
You must describe it from the soldiers. But in parliament
was as bad as Palkhan.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
The country was shocked.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
General viche Rights in his book A Kilometer Army head
Quarters say they were told that Parliament is under siege
us in tom Budge Gay we could have lost some
very political personality. Now when you are mobilized and you
are threatening them with war in Cogumption de Goo Kalu
chuk mate soldiers, sleeping soldiers, women, children, including including a
(23:52):
child doing a child, could they be a graver provocation?
Prime mister Washbay said our parkiller I was a left
We thought three days and nothing happens. What happens now
you just understand this and then get the west hal
(24:14):
These nuclear weapons are not nuclear cap museum pieces, honey,
They are not to be you know, we will use them. Now,
look at this What word shall I use for them?
The the juvenile West, the innocent West. Washington gets scandalized
by this complicit West. You have to complicit y baf SO, USMC,
(24:40):
Western embass businesses exist and their media, our media lectures
the Indian state and says you are irresponsible. You are
threatening war in a nuclearized subcontinent. You are being irresponsible.
And we say, oh, we are being responsible, good strategic restraint.
(25:03):
And now let me tell you there's somebody whom I respect.
Seeing Kaluchak. What happens how they waved the nuclear attle?
This is very important to understand. Just one thing. He
writes in the book that the purpose of Parakhram was
to contain terrorism without conflict. Just decode it for me.
What does it mean with a chap like Pakistan? Do
(25:25):
the understanding language. Then, he says he the purpose of
Parakram was to assolge the feelings, hurt feelings of the Indians.
And the third point is extremely important. He says, my
most taxing challenge as a defense minister was to teach
restraint to my service chiefs. Imagine now a service chiefs
(25:48):
meant to exercise restraint or they meant to war fight.
Now you see this West Parking narrative is bought by
the West. We also buy it. In the army. Strategic
Christrain became a matter of high brow intellect. So if
you were a you know, well read soldio, you said Christraint,
if I am a clever Pakistan in Como yesterday. Such
(26:16):
was the mood and frustration of those times that aren't
sure it made that famous thing he said when he
was asked, he said, you know, it is not an
eye for an eye, not a tooth for a tooth
for one eye, both the eyes for a tooth, the
whole jaw. You have to understand the background, which is
what has happened happened. Second point, another luminary, let's say,
(26:39):
made front of friend fun of the instrument of force
very interestingly he said, air force and a general sub
gal zoom. But he's right, he was right. And then
there was professional advice. K P. S. Gil Gil said,
(26:59):
you will when the war on terror by chasing terrorists
or merely chasing terrorists, which is what we have done,
you will win it by overwhelming the adversary a pressure
to Bumia. You will realize how Obsen Dour is so
significant because it has converted the mood, the frustration, the despair,
(27:22):
even the wisdom of those times into a new strategic reality.
So I say my conclusion about ops and theur is two,
it has underlined the utility of fos. We have understood
what force can do. And two it has called this
schoolboy nuclear bluff on terror, schoolboy nuclear bluff. And here
I again get my Western counterparts. Tell me what is
(27:45):
this nuclear theology? Nuclear weapons are to be used when
you are threatened existentially? Yaha. Thesematos were using the rattle
to launch a nuclear go on a nuclear terror rampage.
Can this be any any logic in this? Should they
(28:06):
have questioned the logic or said no, no, no, no nuclearized subcontinent.
This is the nonsense. Now what has the government primes
to MOOI and the current dispensation done. They have said,
de boss, terror is no longer a low cost option,
so low you do it, No Khan will be it.
(28:26):
This is what has changed.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
Every d We'll do a separate podcast on it. Because
I was anchoring, anchored through the night both when the
terror bases were hit and subsequently when eleven Pakistans is
more than eleven of their air bases and radar stations
were hit. And then when I met some of the
soldiers would hit them, including Pasur and uh Tunia. And
(28:51):
with the armen is about the operation. Army. Army did
a great job, so while air force walks away with
a cake and doing a tell a job.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Good job. But I'm told of the nine targets seven seven,
and I met those soldiers who hit always nanimous doesn't
take credit.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
But Barkune soldiers videos they came. I went down on
ground and met them.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
The Pakistani counter attack incidenttly when they use their high
speed missiles.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
They also tried to target some white classes vital points.
They were intercepted. Fortunately, but again the Chinese system, the
Chinese missiles didn't work. So even if they're building, as
you said, ten thousand missiles, those missiles are intercepted.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
So therefore you tell me the j ten Jason is
a party man. Mari insurgents have.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Brought seventeen, but seventeen China is not flying the Pakistan Pakistan.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Number hardware Kraft, the Chinese Krave Pakistan Capilot Bay for
both is good news for us. But see now what
have they done? This is what we have to see
now to the new Trinity forty J thirty five a
stellth HQ nineteen not HQ nine nineteen kJ five hundred
(30:17):
new ad system by paper with the way. But I'm impressive.
But you can't plan on this basis. Of course, you
have to pray. At least. The Indian military is told
that you must never underestimate your adversary. True, so I
will say, don't underestimate them. But a the military component
(30:43):
of the power differential with China is four fifty billion
dollars four fifty billion dollars. Now they are limits to valor.
So the Indian state has to decide can we spend more?
Should we spend more? And here I'll oil attention though
have they palay? Two young Indian economists so not the
(31:04):
old school ones. They wrote a very good article saying
that this guns versus growth is a false debate one.
But more interestingly they said, investments in defense courting American
peer review journals and all have a fiscal multiplier close
to two. This is economics. Now economy is saying that.
(31:25):
So they are saying that it is a misnomer and
you must get him on your show. Everybody keep a
current defense. May it adds one rep to your GDP.
Absolutely what have you been told? All these defense is
a wastage of money? So we must pick these lies.
And I'm saying, revisit the the medrics of your economic
(31:48):
state craft or quch khushbarrow because my favorite line deterans
may be costly, but what is that costly? Ask the Ukrainians.
So all these issues need to be revisited. So I'm saying,
there is very good news one hundred generals getting sacked
JF seventeen not working, jen not working. But you can't
(32:09):
base your planning on these parameters. Not no, but you
know one they're being sacked.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Two they're committing or they're being driven to committing suicide
or dying by suicide. Or they're being killed either by
those close to she or those opposed to she. So
for example, you were talking about you know, he Hung
Jun and part of my pronunciation the deputy chief of
CMC died by suicide within a year of appointment.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Critic is Admiral Miao Hua. He too was purged, and
he was seen as someone who was loyal to Jen Ping.
So when someone loyal to Jen Ping is being removed
and his promotion had been fast tracked.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
What does that indicate?
Speaker 2 (32:53):
So you know that is all part of Chinese palace
intrigues and China phrase have that to scare the lion,
kick the monkey. So if you want to get at Z,
kick his lieutenants. So all this is going on over there.
But the serious point is that you see what we
(33:13):
now call is politico military convict convergence. No strategic military
system can be built on palace intrigues. There has to
be trust between the CDs and the Prime Minister, between
the CDs and the Daksha man Thri, which leads to
good decisions cohesion. So we have all that advantage. Our
(33:35):
biggest advantage people don't realize is a professional military under
political control. Absolutely, Pakistan is an unprofessional military bucking political control.
Yeto palace intrigues. The same way, I I and you
are two generals. This time i'll make you the Chinese general.
I hope you'll accept it. The fact is trusting. I'm chackering.
(33:59):
So these are all good side.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
So I also want to now come to from generals
to their ministers. November twenty twenty four, there were reports
that quoted intelligence officials saying Admiral Dung Jun, China's minister
was being proved for corruption their defense minister. Then when
she took par in twenty twelve, he promoted all these
(34:21):
thirty first Army Group generals. He brought his people to
the top. Li shong Fu removed as Defense Minister October
twenty twenty three. The statement made severely polluting military procurement systems.
So the generals are corrupt, their ministers are corrupt.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
So exactly you see when z came to par, he
came to bar on the slogan of of not only
the flies, but also the Tigers club, your corruption mayor
chot also the tigers, and he said, I will get
my men and I will take out corruption. It was
a major plank with him, a low cares up jinku,
aplae where he corrupted corupt. So what is your political
(35:03):
locus STANDI what was this whole mission about flies and tigers?
So he's been questioned on multiple fronts or real estate.
So these are certainly bad days for the Chinese. But
let me tell you one more thing. One last week China.
One Western guide wrote a book on China, The Bubble
(35:24):
That Never Pops, and he says China downfall theory. That
is true. I may also be victim of one of those,
but awfully time seeing serious strains in it. But the
point is you have to keep a very close watch
on plea because Chinese, I am very clear, China khan
(35:49):
one tiger on a hill and they are going to
take it. They take this fight to the finish. So
what is their priority Taiwan or India or these? You know,
as they say that.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
These five fingers they want, they want Tibet, they want
lad Dak, they want Achal, Pradesh, uh Nepal, Bhutan, they
said the other five fingers, and Tibet is the palm?
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Do they actually I know?
Speaker 1 (36:17):
But would they focus on this or would they focus
on Taiwan?
Speaker 2 (36:20):
See, we must focus on one Chinese saying, which loosely translated,
is like this. It says, the first time I slap you,
it is my fault. The second time I slap you,
it is yours. Oh absolutely, so we have been slapped
once since sixty two. Now I make this point. For
the first time in history, you have the words number
(36:42):
one and number three economies in PPP terms, first time
in history, growing in close proximity and now no Himalayas.
Himalayas have been breached by technology in Tibet, Kibaki, no
buffer like Tibet. Your geostrategic trajectories are bound to clash.
The only way to keep this intersect peaceful is by
(37:04):
investing in deterance and not hoping that nothing will happen,
because that hope did what it did to us in
nineteen sixty two when mister Nero was told and he
said no, no, no, I will take care, and he wanted
to disband the army at all that, and he died
a broken man. Taiwan Valley.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
So.
Speaker 2 (37:24):
I was an army commander during Gulwan, so two years
before Galwan, one year when all this build up was
taking place in the WTC. Each time we asked Kibai,
what is this build up being taken, we were told no.
The word was no, no. His primary orientation is Taiwan.
Dominica's our primary orientation Taiwan. Then we were told, you know,
(37:48):
these agreements generals were breach. You can't be breached.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
But they had already been breached in twenty seventeen in Doleums.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
But here too he breached them with impunity, with impunity, punity.
So Babar never trust all this primary orientation Taiwan. This
is all that high brow intellect primary. It sounds very
good and they have never been breeched general they preached.
So I'm saying the only thing will works with the
Chinese is deterance. After Galwan, when we have hit them
(38:20):
at many places and you would know that it's never
been made public. They were driven to do what they
did in Kazan. So the lesson with China is deterans,
invest in deterance and not hope. And see now one
more thing about China. There is no evidence, but I
am very clear what is China doing to us? It
(38:40):
is saying they go one tiger on a hill in
say amaramkab. You know when the Prime mister was in Kazan.
You see the readout. The readout said multipolar world, but
quite on Asia. India says multipolar world, multipolar Asia. They
keep quiet on that. They are very clear. It is
one tiger on a hill, a good bay Kufe. Pakistan
(39:07):
is Colorado, test your equipment laboratories with him. So here
you have terror Pakistan and Turkey and China terror. If
you've been following Aurev. I think last week was before that,
at least I saw it for the first time, the
formation of the Theik Taliban Kashmir. So you now have
(39:29):
T T A T T P T TK. I'm telling
you at this point they will be plotting something. I
have no doubt in what is worse, and I've been
saying this for the last one two months. We have
a new national security reality in banglades You just see
a few things. Look at this whole business. The eyes
(39:51):
side chief has visited three to four times. Waker Zaman,
who's pro India, Q whoa radical Islamis type terrorists, Jamats Islamists.
Look what they are doing to you know, the minorities Hindus.
(40:17):
Suddenly La, this guy starts seeing the landlockedness of the
Seven States, LA Monhart Air Base, The Bangladesh inventry is
seventy to seventy five Chinese. The Rakein Corridor will get
weaponized for terror fueled by drug I am reasonably certain
the next terror attack will come from banglades from What
(40:39):
will you do? So either they heep Pakistan, Bangladesh, China,
instabilities in myanmarra problem. Now if I'm China, I mean
in India WA and then there is this four hundred
ship navy which is not going to patrol its coastlines.
(41:02):
So we have to realize that we are in a
very grim strategic environment.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
When you look at this situation on ground in our
you know, you you give the example that you hit
the monkey and scare the time tiger. There's also that
other saying that you slaughter the chicken to scare the monkey.
If we've slaughtered the chicken in Absindur, does the monkey
get the signal? Because how many A bases do they
(41:29):
have in occupied Tibet? If we can take down eleven
bases in Pakistan, how many bases god forbid? Should the
balloon go up can be taken down? And does he
have the air defense system?
Speaker 2 (41:41):
I mean, I'm only speculating as a total civilian, a
man to ask you a very very very apt question.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
So see, I look at it, and if you can
take down his access to Tibet.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
So my answer to that is this that I don't
think that we have a threat from the LAC. My answer,
we have rebalanced suption troops, meg armor, logistics, force multipliers,
which he thinks is aggressive, thinks we know what we
are doing. The only thing where he's beating us is
(42:15):
in persistent surveillance AI, drones, swarms, rocket force, strategic support force.
Look at his nuclear posture. So in this technologically driven
domains we are behind the Maria theory. Here that now
that you have got a very robust posture along the
LAC and your startups have grown for ten years. Now
(42:38):
they are ripe. You use some of these startups to
give technology to the LAC. The posture plus that technology
will is good enough to provide failed proof deterance along
the LAC. Only as far as the larger China challenge
is concerned. In technology, AI, all that stuff, he is good.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
You have to.
Speaker 2 (43:00):
Acknowledge he's leading in quantum. We must get into what
I call the thong hide and bide. Invest in that
so fail proved veterans along the LAC make sure that
doesn't fall and that can be done. And the larger
challenge we have to invest and build. So I make
this point, you know at the end of it. When
I was young, we were told India strategic outlook Mara outlook,
(43:25):
a peaceful external environment, a benign internal environment, and focus
on the growth of your one forty three core citizenry,
good idea first class, except it's not happening in the
real world. India has to learn to plot its rise
through multiple crisis, conflict and confrontations. Sindur is only the
(43:46):
beginning and humkakering abi Sindhuru do me pio the debates
will go. I'm saying, not episodic nourishment of the military,
but enduring capacities and through made in India equipment and
as far as possible certainly and critical operations apps. You
(44:08):
will have to do with that. So it is entirely doable.
And what we should not do what Pakistan is doing.
We should focus on our growth, focus on technology, technological renaissance.
We have talent. This is our moment. We should just
be careful on the national security front. Otherwise, you know,
this journey to I'm with Karl is not going to
(44:30):
be a smooth ride. But can we get too of
hi said Barata. I have no doubt provided we are
little cautious about our national security about these investments, but
there are challenges. I'm also of the view that our
strategic environment maybe as grim, if not grimmer than Israel.
You tell me who is these kind.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Of threats true, So we really have to pick up.
Speaker 2 (44:51):
Our game in national security.
Speaker 1 (44:52):
That's the large and that's exactly why the conversations are
very interesting that a lot of those conversations are happening.
For example, it's people driven initiative that you must invest
in your caver E engine so that you have your
domestic fighter jet engine. So you in the interim you
may have to buy an engine, whether you get it
from France or Russia for your fighter jets. But then
we're also focusing on maiden and now let's be honest.
(45:15):
And now let's be honest.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
There's a lovely line in Hindi. It says saamatka sahasma both.
So you took the engine. So let me say I'm
making this point. Amka is not happening with these two
point five like engineers. Sure, if you want to get AMCA,
pay them cross So flexible recruitment models for our HL
(45:37):
and DADO. Yeah, startups, Johann Le may contem chant. They
are hiring du scrow Q engineers. The competition is different.
Let's take technology another issue. I'll give you one piece
of data two thousand and three to two thousand and
seven in all critical emerging technologies. There are sixty five
(46:00):
of them tabled by SPO, Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The
sole superpower USA leads in sixty out of sixty five,
but then China does its thousand talents planned as Boras strategy.
By twenty nineteen, China is leading in fifty seven out
of sixty five. Look at the dramatic inversion and technology.
(46:23):
So can India not pick ten technologies and saying by
does sal me? Does may argue only yea amri kamiam
ye kernel and one thing. I'll say technological innovation has
picked up, but it's not going to happen unless we
deregulate jo i fa system here. It has to change.
(46:43):
It is meant for a different era, or it will
kill innovation. It will kill energy and enterprise. Financial advisor
rakshamantra Imajo hota he vowala system.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
You're saying has has to go, and I.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Am appealing to them kipna system banadi, but you otherwise
it's not going to.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Work for the benefit of this podcast. Do you think
the Chinese army is at war with itself? Is that
what is happening between various gangs and groups and generals
within the Chinese army. Because I was reading someway. So
there's a there's a shansi and if I'm pronouncing that correctly,
there's a shansi gang. There's a fuji and clique, and
(47:24):
they're going after each other.
Speaker 2 (47:26):
See the way the Chinese system works is that each
of their generals have a political mentor, so they are aligned.
So there will be people in Zi's gang, they will
people in hu Jin Thou's gang and hope that your
guy comes to power. You see, unlike us, which is
a very professional military, we don't get politically mentored. They
their system is like that or political commissioner who from
(47:50):
the party, because their army is also that belongs to
the party and not to the country. You take your gamble.
So if I'm a bright general, I will choose a.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (48:01):
You make a choice. That's the way it happens.
Speaker 1 (48:04):
No, but canon army like that, and your professional assessment.
If an army where generals are going after each other,
and you've seen them up close and personally. You saw
what happened in Dolom in twenty seventeen, you've seen what
happened in sixty seven at Nathula at Sundorong Chu through
through nineteen eighties and nineties. You've seen them through and through.
(48:25):
Are they a professional war fighting army or do they
only believe in either scaring you or using, you know,
threatening to use their rockets and missiles, Because when you
also start using your rockets and missiles, then it's who
fights better on day one and day four? And are
they using elements within our country to weaken us mentally?
Because I've seen so many people in our own country
(48:46):
who would like you, those intellectual generals I'll talk about
intellectual journalists so called, and analysts who would talk about
strategic restraints when it comes to Pakistan or pedal Pakistan's agenda,
the amankeiyashawalas that. But the brigade of Vaga and those
who say Chinese army is way too strong. You cannot
deal with them. So you know what's the haham?
Speaker 2 (49:06):
If you give up more territory to them, that's a
spicious argument. Why should we give have territory? See if
you see them over the last six, seven, eight years,
in any of these physical contests, we have hammered them.
So physically we are stronger, we are more hardy than them.
They are many stories of that.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
Then they say robots sake lading, and we'll have robots
who will fight in high multitudes.
Speaker 2 (49:31):
So we'll come to that. So that is one part
of it. When it comes to professionalism. For all the
reasons that I've said, we are superior sunk basic problem.
A CEO of a battalion is also supervised by a
political commissar. Just put it in India. If an infantry battalion
is supervised by some member of Congress or somebody, how
would that thing work? So those are inherent problems in
(49:54):
their military. So to at least a professional military mind,
these are major weaknesses. Palace entry, one hundred genders lived.
These are all very welcome science because generalship all these things,
leadership and all matters. But that other piece of technology
and capacity. I will put it like this. So, actually
the Chinese are only five feet tall. What they are
(50:16):
biologically true, but what they do and what we make
excuses and don't do makes them eight feet tall. By
what they do and by what we don't do, they
become ten feet tall. If a system true HAMARII quick
(50:38):
atas have you know they are autocracy. We are a democracy.
I say, open society, closed minds, close society, open minds
a constitutions. So, of course the Chinese are just five
feet tall, so the argument is complicated. They could be
(50:59):
so social media fluff. There is a lot of weaknesses
in their HR system. These are plus signs, but technologies
those things matter. Now what is the final argument. The
final argument is go to Ukraine, Ukraine, Mikiahurai. You have
World War One trench warfare, ulood and gore. You have
Cold War legacy systems, but don't forget that cutting edge
(51:23):
technology is taking warfare to a new high. Look at
it rules absolutely. Now Chinese are known to be masters
out rown, but not battle proven, not battle.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
Proven unless they're not giving their best to Pakistan and
saving it for themselves.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
Perhaps perhaps I think there they won't give their best
to them and see look at their whole design. This
winning without fighting has to be seen restrict in to Taiwan.
I gave you that data. Two thirds amphibious force, forty
two brigades, Hooker, care Rose a hypothetically trump phil As Paparo.
(52:04):
Can you match him? Paparo will say no, now no,
So I'll give you a larger example, which has to
be understood how these yaps do it. Nineteen forty eight,
Mao is waiting to cross the Taiwan street. He says
they are soaw kilometer, Hey chay then lagging unopposed, Hey,
Taiwan will be ours. When he says that the Americans
(52:27):
send their seventh fleet, he backs off. This is repeated
in fifty eight. This time the Americans threatened nuclear weapons.
He again backs off. Nineteen ninety five, then again the
Taiwan crisis happens. Bill Clinton sends two aircraft carriers. The
(52:47):
Chinese back off for the third time. But now they
say A two a d ANTI excess area denial. Thus,
Pandra sal when they were making these missiles, Americans were
writing articles how these missiles will miss the ships. Today
Paparo says, I cannot send my aircraft carriers into the
(53:08):
first talent chain because they will be destroyed. Now, if
American power can't project into the first talent chain, what
does it do to the geopolitical outcomes? And now you
just see a very transactional Trump. If Trump is told
that we will lose blood, share them horey cat Trump
commit Taiwan, May I have my teep touts so winning
(53:33):
without fighting. They haven't fought just by posturing. They have
told the pose the question to the adversary. Kibos, this
is the bigger worry. And the last time they fought
in seventy nine, they were a disaster and they.
Speaker 1 (53:49):
Were given of bloody nose. In fact, I was reporting
from Taiwan when that big thread happened, and when Nancy
Pelosi visited Taiwan, I was reporting from Taiwan, and I
visited the i which is clear nearest to the Chinese mainland.
So the Taiwanese army and the government, they insist that
their policy of porcupine defense, we have so many missiles
(54:13):
that we will take the Chinese down at least the
first couple of waves of attacks. After that will help
come or not. But will Japan let that happen, Will
other countries let that happen? And will America.
Speaker 2 (54:25):
Then meekly surrender even if you know Taiwan has fought
off the Chinese two rounds.
Speaker 1 (54:31):
Or three rounds.
Speaker 2 (54:31):
If you see the recent statements of Hexit, then Bridge,
Colby and all, it's very clear they have told Taiwan
spend more is difficult, so they have told them spend
ten percent. We will see whether we come or not.
They're leaving it ambiguous. With Japan, they are firm because
they know that if Japan folds up Korea flds up,
(54:56):
then that is the end of American power. So I
suspect they will come to the aid of say Japan's
South Korea, Taiwan, there are question marks, question marks, and
see why they may let Taiwan go but not Japan
in South Korea because if Japan and South Korea fall,
that will be like the suize moment for US American
(55:18):
power will collapse. So I'm going I'm saying that Taiwan
question mark. You know. So with India also, they are
hoping this key by Pakistan Ladega Bangladesh. If you actually
ask me, if I'm an non military guy, what is
the geopolitical risk of a full fledged war with China,
I'll say two percent. They are going to fight. They
(55:40):
will make Bangladesh and Pakistan all this. But in a crisis,
now she look at the rocket force. If we know
that one hundred thousand missiles are pointing at us and
we do not have AD and we do not have that,
what decision will you take? So I'm saying create the capacities.
He will not fight, he will back off and you
(56:02):
can grow hamari. Unfortunately, what is the theory why spend now?
You cannot take care of China at one you cannot.
Like Maharanata also needed Bahamasha to fight. We need a
bahmashas right now. So if we are sensible about this,
China is not a threat. But sometimes we are not
so sensible. That's the whole point.
Speaker 1 (56:24):
No, I think with with the strategic conversations uh and
and now in this interconnected world, there is realization. Now
nobody will buy the Hindi chini bai bai, even if
anybody tries to force it down our throat.
Speaker 2 (56:38):
That is the new generation. The new generation thankfully is visor.
It's not so innocent.
Speaker 1 (56:44):
But I wish that stop buying the made in China
equipment or everything made in China. I mean, we seem
to still buy everything made in China, or we still
want those Pakistani artists in our movies. I don't understand
this at all. There is no man kiyasha when they
want to kill you, when when the reason exist as
gazbay hind But.
Speaker 2 (57:02):
Seeing prince in reality, what are the difficulty? So we've
had ten years of making India defense. We have today
about one hundred hundred and fifty drone companies. The tragedy
is key drone may Bara's components. Bara may say eleven
are imported and nine are imported from China. So that
(57:24):
larger military industrial base has to come up. War Johannes,
we have, you know, not let that base come up
for decades. Can't be changed overnight. This is our problem
with China, even in the military domain, were across the world.
Speaker 1 (57:38):
We need to kind of completely think how we can
cut away from that. But on this discussion that that
one line which always impresses me about Ramdhari Singh Dinker
is from Shakti and Shama, which I'm total is also
your favorite. Yes, you know because Lord ram also for
three days he kept requesting the ocean give me way,
(58:02):
and the ocean didn't. Now the moment he pulled his
bow and arrow, the ocean gave way and said, how
you can go to.
Speaker 2 (58:10):
This point we were making about Western elites are elites.
Look at their lack of clarity and look at the
clarity that ram Hari Singin has. He was just a
street poet, just a street street poet. But look at
the clarity he had on diplomacy, state craft and all those. Absolutely,
(58:30):
when he says, what is that bust the head?
Speaker 1 (58:34):
He bust the head deep the Niki Sanka just may shut.
Speaker 2 (58:40):
The common sense. So it's not.
Speaker 1 (58:43):
Only the brave are respected.
Speaker 2 (58:45):
No, yeah, obviously, and common sense military power not to
jackboot around the world, but precise, calibrated, technologically enabled military power.
See next time, what should we do. We should not
take out the brother in laws of Masuda or his
four wives. We should take out Masuds or himself. For that,
you need even more refined capacities in space. So that
(59:09):
is the kind we need.
Speaker 1 (59:11):
More lower the orbiting satellites, that's where we need. I
will leave that for another day because that's again an
area where India needs to focus a lot on AliOS.
We need to do that absent in the ALIO, Absent
the low earth orbiting.
Speaker 2 (59:27):
All military capacities come only from the ALIO. I'm told
some projectors on it will take five to six years,
but I say this year they need to spirit it up.
Speaker 1 (59:36):
But I want to end and Jener, thank you very
much for joining me. So what an outstanding discussion with you.
We can go on and on and on, but perhaps
we such.
Speaker 2 (59:46):
Pleasure for another than thank you very much for having
me and all the best you. Once again, thank you
very much, and I want to end with that line
of Ramdhari dinkar in Shakti and Shama Shama shobut just
get past girl, Hey Uskoka, Joe, wish heen wish beneath sa.
(01:00:08):
You have to be strong to be in a position
to forgive, because nobody respects a weak person, a week leader,
or a weak country.
Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
And this we can see from our scriptures, our culture,
our history, our civilizational history.
Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
Many thanks for watching
This is India Today podcasts Namaskar and jahind I'm God
a seventh. India was able to sort out Pakistan in
Operation Sindur, But is there a bigger challenge for India.
What's happening on the other side of the China Wall?
(00:21):
How strong is the Chinese army, the PLA People's Liberation Army.
We've seen the Chinese equipment. Is that actually the best
that China has to offer? Because an O Sindur Indian
assessment was that the Chinese equipment isn't as good as
they claimed.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
It would be.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Chle to Chantak, Nato Rattak and who better than left
Genil Raj Shukla, former Army commander, our track to tell
us more about what's happening on the other side of
the Chinese Wall. Of the China WALLUKA, welcome on India Today.
Speaker 2 (00:58):
So thank you or sub speltho KA podcast is kiagas
perapco should come. I hope you do well and all
the best, good luck.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Thank you very much up and you know, with the
God's grace and your good wishes, hopefully we will. But
how well is she Jinping doing?
Speaker 2 (01:21):
Yes? So you know China, let's look at it this way.
If you just go back a couple of years, twenty
fifteen twenty sixteen was when the strategic competition between China
and US started intensifying, and it did seem for a
while that the China story would exceed the American rejuvenation.
(01:45):
So I'll just give you two points, you know, two
three points to say, say why I say that. Look
at Deep Sea ken Qan. It has leveled the AI race.
The Americans thought they were ten to twelve years ahead
of China, and suddenly Deep Seek and Ai. So this,
you know, led one to think that China was not
(02:08):
a copycat story. There was something deep innovation. Is that
let's look at the military balance in the First Island
chain on Admiral Paparo's admission, so American admission, the Chinese
ratio of ship combatant ships China to USA six point
(02:31):
eight is to one wall over the.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Last fast they're building the ship.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
And see what they're doing. The escalations have increased three
hundred percent over last year. Twenty seventeen, they employed two brigades.
This year they employed forty two brigades. The amphibious ships
which are exercising two thirds of their fleet is exercising,
(02:57):
so they hat starts from ten percent two thirds. Next
time it may just be the attack. So Paparo has
been warning that these are no longer exercises, they are
rehearsals for attack to ach thre of two Yeah, no so,
and all kinds of stuff when it comes to their hardware.
But I have been observing this and now it's over
(03:19):
the South China Morning Post and everywhere else. Apart from
their other issues of real estate collapse, unemployment, inflation growth
being as low as three percent, comes this bad news
of Z being cornered politically and his PLA letting him down.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
So that's the very big point you're making. And I
want to pick up on this thread. Shi Jinping is
called chairman of everything, but is that chairman of everything
truly being cornered? And if I if I pick up
one aspect real estate has been written about extensively, the
real estate collapse. Why is the PLA and is the
(03:57):
PLA collapsing? With reports of between seventy to one hundred
generals being purged in ten years, that's a huge number.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
What would you make of it? So the PLA is
the personal project of Z. If you go back ten
fifteen years Z realized that if China has to grow,
the PLA was outdated technologically, a lagguard. So he invested
in the PLA. And people say that the PLA has
(04:29):
undergone the most massive military modernization in the history of mankind,
history of mankind, and it has to be understood. Z
ten twelve years back used to spend six days in
the artllery school, four days in their evation academy, so
he nursed it. He made mind boggling changes, getting Naval
(04:51):
Air Force officers into the Central Military Commission, appointing some
of his best minds to the Rocket Force Strategic Support
Force see Strategic Support for Jabrezui the Salpele. It was
the world's first effort to ai enable the military. He
was thinking years and years ahead, but what has happened
(05:13):
of late? He constantly got reports of two to three things.
One is corruption, One is taking money for promotions. This
is a deep malase in the PLA, taking you pay
your way through promotions. And the third was that after
ten years of investments over the last two years, when
he's going and asking these people that are you ready
(05:35):
for the Taiwan contingency, all kinds of excuses. So seventy
two hundred generals have either been sacked or they have
left to their suicide for three to four reasons, corruption,
for incompetence, and for not being ready for the Taiwan contingency.
Not just see two hundred is not a small number.
(05:58):
And now his ticle rivals hu Jintaou and benja Abau
and all they've been saying, what is happening to your pla,
These are all your choices, They were not our choices.
You personally picked them. And two defense ministers get sacked
and rocket falls generally yvo. And then what happened of
late the day I tweeted the week before that will
(06:19):
schedule subsist? As the Kido generals think I put their
names in their tweet.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
He whom June and he we don't.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yeah, so they're all he who something. But the point
is his closest generals committed suicide or they were executed
or skipash or Jo Karibi, they were arrested. One of
them is commander and Northern Theater Command. It's like our
Western Army commander committing suicide Eastern Army commander. This sets
me to think that while they're hardware may be good.
(06:49):
Maybe question mark, is there hard work actually good, but
he'll come to that question. But their software is definitely
in trouble. Agraki so leads top generals are caught up
in all this, and therefore these politicians have chosen their
moment to corner him on this or on Kejo Central
(07:10):
Military Commission chairman and j what's his name, zang Zuzia
U zang Zuzia was not from the Z camp, but
now he's controlling the shots. And these five and two
have been accused of plotting against Anzuzia. So for the
first time in the PLA, he's being cornered. And now
(07:32):
Hu Jintao, whom he humilated a year back or something
twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (07:37):
In fact, both the swedempt what are viewers to look
at those images? How unceremoniously a former president was lifted
and evicted from the meeting.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
He's got back and he's got support. Ben Ziabia has
got support. So I'm not saying that there are visible cracks,
but there are certainly signs of something not being right.
So let's take this is just one more point I
want to make. See why this Taiwan is so important
(08:07):
to him, our previous presidents they came, so Deng said
hide and buyed. Z said loud and proud a moment
and will go loud and proud. And when he was
asked give buy up Jack Brkichacha, he said, enough of wealth.
Now the time has come to convert that wealth into power,
(08:31):
into strength. Taiwan plain part of the BOULDERYE are attacker hard.
I'll give you one piece of statistics. USA today has
just seven days of missiles musicians to fight in Taiwan.
China is churning out ten thousand cruise missiles a week
(08:54):
a week. The hardware metho, the co American admissions that
Chinese or zipping past.
Speaker 1 (09:01):
But he's a software failure.
Speaker 2 (09:04):
Rapness.
Speaker 1 (09:06):
I come to Shindur in just a moment, sir, and
I'm very keen to talk about Sindur because just that
has a Chinese equipment. One section of the media or
one section of the you know experts, they're hailing the
jay ncs and then the pl fifteen's and the other
are saying, but I want to stay for a moment
(09:28):
on he hum Jun and he widow the CMC vice
president if the Central Military Commission vice chairman is being
driven to commit streetside. What does that indicate?
Speaker 2 (09:42):
I'm telling you deeply wedding signs and therefore, I really
I'm wondering why the Indian media has not picked this
up India today I did thank you and thank you
for hirating this in the podcast. Now it needs deeper investigation.
Off the offline, we were talking of intelligence. I'll give
you interesting bit about intelligence. Deep Seek it shocked the world.
(10:07):
You ask any chap in the computer space it space American,
he will tell you it didn't come as a surprise.
We were seeing them coming to that. Who was taken
by surprise? The national security community. If the American national
security community couldn't spot Deep Sea, what about us? They
are our neighbor. True, we should be looking at these things.
(10:30):
So you just see how weak intelligence across national security
communities is if you didn't spot Deep Seek, these Americans DIDs.
The lesson is what God that we have to step
up our game in all these issues or intelligence and
absolutely and the professionals know about it. To johamare In, yeah,
(10:53):
the professional Hey, DEPTHNYM analysis may all these things are
not important.
Speaker 3 (11:02):
Now if there was a revolt by former premier and
reformist wen Jiabao. What is your assessment of Hu Jintao
October twenty twenty two was when he.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
Was ushered out and rather unceremoniously. Is he now as
former president? And in China they anyways say that elders
are respected. She didn't respect the elders. Is he in
in a sticky on a sticky wicket there?
Speaker 2 (11:34):
So they go, I mean the Chinese system is opaque.
But in the Chinese system, if you go back to
the visuals dispute Kathy Joe Politburoka composition Tha he was
assured that they will be certain names. Now when he
wants to pick that up to see you notice or
(11:59):
so it was a breach of promise. So they may
be a communist country, but they also have deals. Deals
are to be honored abij officially though my name ah
Benjobia is only yai ki. Why did you violate the deal?
You backstapped us internal gatherings, I'm told that there is
very open speech making. So while they may be communists,
(12:23):
internally they speak and internally they also have stature. They
have backers, both Menjabau and all I think one month
back they were a series of meetings where they hounded
z on him and the words they used was let
us get us back to transparency, rule of law and
standards and collectively and not individually. You picked a very
(12:44):
good point because the Chinese Apex political apex had concluded
that we should no longer have personalities like Mao because
cultural revolution they killed millions and.
Speaker 1 (12:57):
All that too.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Leadership should be collected. So in the previous areas of
Jiang zy Men and all, while there was a face,
it was collective. He changed that became too powerful. It
seems that his power is receding now and Mansunai it
has to combined with some serious ailments he's going through
(13:18):
apparently strain, some surgery, so you know, everything has come
together health PLA. But what will hurt him most is
the PLA because he really invested in the PLA and
it has let him down at least in terms of
corruption and all this.
Speaker 1 (13:33):
So let's for a moment focus on PLA. There are
analysts who are now saying, and you've been, you've been
tracking PLA very closely. It's very brittle. It may look strong,
but egdaka or though or what to tegi is that
(13:53):
your assessment.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
See My assessment of PLA is like this if you
go by their capacity investments. An example, Chinese manufacturing civilian
capacities in manufacturing in two thousand and two half of
that of USA civil. By twenty twenty two, their manufacturing
(14:17):
capacities civil become twice of that of USA. In consequence,
their military industrial complex today is five to six times
more efficient than USA. To yejo Chize Henna ten to
thousand cruise missiles a week manufacturing capacities j thirty six
(14:39):
million million drone swarms are being swarmed along the LAC
five G military robotics to smical name, but part of
it is cognitive warfare jes. The true chaps who have
churned out that drone mothership is the Ukrainians. They've worked
(15:00):
on it for three years JS Ukraine nik yeah AI
enabled FORHOTNICALI, and the whole world is thinking they have
gotten awn. Mother is just beginning an AI enabled so
couch yeahe their air forces suspect because they really haven't
you know, and they've never been tested in an air
war abi jos J ten J seventeen. They don't seem
(15:24):
to have done too well, so I say that they
have some capacities. Some of it is social media fluff.
What is happening in their general ship is very welcome news.
But you can't plan on the basis that they will crumble,
So you have to plan on facts, yes, and then
if they.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
Crumble, good for us Zada. They just have Pakistan Zada strong.
Akha I just you know, did we assess that Pakistanis
are stronger than they were the manner in which they
fought on day one and the mander in which they
just collapsed on May nine ten. Let's look at the
military heart way of the pakistaniese Kurtsea China J ten
(16:04):
C fighter jets twenty twenty one, thirty six aircraft HQ
nine SAM system twenty nineteen, one h Q nine SAM
missiles seventy since twenty nineteen, the C H four A
the medium Multitude Long Endurance drone since twenty nineteen ten.
The PLC won at one hundred and fifty five mmspg
(16:25):
is self propelled gun twenty eighteen onwards, two hundred and
thirty six Wing Loong to armed drones forty eight Wing
Loong one armed drone since twenty nineteen forty eight. The radars,
and you've studied radars so extensively. Their their you know
one fifty air searcher radar, the YLC two A, the
(16:45):
h Q seven SAM system, and I have this entire
list YLC two, YLC six, YLC eighteen gap filler radars,
the HQ nine B, h Q sixteen, HQ seven sharads, FMA,
t FM ninety FN six manportable ed system. Yes, sub
Pakistani pas he to Hamari missile basis called nine terror
(17:07):
bases called.
Speaker 2 (17:11):
LAMB. But I'll simplify it for you. You name one
equipment on the park in Wentry which is not Chinese.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
Eight Chinese nines.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
When I was commanding the division in Baramullah Joey opposite
in engineer's infrastructures charged Pakistani to b I they are
making their milky bridges in Fra. It doesn't surprise me
one bit. Pakistan army is nothing but Chinese army in manpower,
(17:51):
in equipment. What they have done off late is Turkey
over droneses is bar Dan was se We missed this
came to Pakistan Indonesia militia. He's positioning himself as the
new caliph, caliph and caliph with Western proficiencies to NATO Army,
(18:12):
Neatro military, Pasabi, but Islamic world. And when he visited
these three countries he did major military deals are President
Katcha in Pakistan, Marisa.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
The corvette and I think.
Speaker 2 (18:28):
Gizbar Kawaki he just had come two months back to
Saman Mariss So Pakistan, is China and Turkey. That should
surprise us one bit. These people who are questioning us.
You know, Peli Ratko some losses, Barti said it. We
(18:53):
will not quantify it because you don't quantify. You tell
me what did you lose? Argument losses? Gay but boxing
about just my pass around America? Bye up rathme so
you were naked, vulnerable, exposed, Hey nor Khan when we
(19:19):
were in my career, we hit these bases only in
war games. He's two under Cub not Punjab. What you're saying,
raval Okay, I commanded thirty ten core opposite thirty Marcus
(19:41):
and I not a Marcas. It is a training academy
which swimming pool, obstacle course, mind training ring. You know
when mind training ring training in conference halls, classrooms, it
will push put an I m to shame was not
being released. There was a thought of firing rams and
(20:01):
the General Rava had come to my headquarters and we
had discussed whether we will can engage it. But released
is bam Kumara. This is dream. We were told that
if you touch Punjab, you know he will not spare you.
What did he do? What did you do? Or tenth
morning May when nor Khan base was hit and unreliable information,
(20:26):
I can tell you their command and control complex was
hit Jupula Air Power Cook that's why the DJMO came
currying for cover for a if your Jayden seventeen were
so good, we were there on the second, third and
fourth night. Tell me where was your fancy h Q nine.
(20:49):
So it was a complete collapse of the air force.
Any sharp military mind will know it. Complete collapse. I'm related.
The reason is, you know we used to talk of
limited air superiority here they had lost air control. Can
you imagine your skies are bear it? Bear they know
(21:14):
it because they actually prided themselves on the Physiah and
we must grant it. Passia held on the first night.
Phasia held held on the first night. The supremacy, superiority
or the pride of the Pakistan Air Force. The other
thing is, since you've raised it, we are very poor
in strategic communications. When he whatever losses inflicted on the
(21:39):
first night, Orze was doing a podcast with air chiefs
and all and selling it to the world. What has
happened in our case since we were a little late,
Why that we should correct what happened that by the
time we sent out our messages the narrative in the
West had hardened.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
But the West? Why does the West dislike us? But
I'll come to that question in just a moment, because
you know that that's a topic I really want to
talk on. But we will digress.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
I want to us come to the West. I want
to make some points about the West.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
Okay, you know since you mentioned Chinese equipment the Indian force. Okay,
day one, he had his J tencs and he has
its J seventeen's, which.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
We have about first round. Martha Pakistan, I hate you,
but boss on the fifth day so you were lying
knocked down? So when the chap is knocked down, do
you say, man so that the wise military analyst should
(22:46):
ask this? Now, I come to this West, I mean
I really questioned their i Q one is for this
will you go by the outcomes or this clerical question.
Are you here a military and is the other thing
I questioned them or just nuclear theology. See I'll give
you an ar. I was a left in colonel when
(23:07):
Parkrum happened in two thousand and two, and I was
Inchuk right next to Now what happens? You remember terrible
I covered it. This generation will not know, but you must.
You must describe it from the soldiers. But in parliament
was as bad as Palkhan.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
The country was shocked.
Speaker 2 (23:28):
General viche Rights in his book A Kilometer Army head
Quarters say they were told that Parliament is under siege
us in tom Budge Gay we could have lost some
very political personality. Now when you are mobilized and you
are threatening them with war in Cogumption de Goo Kalu
chuk mate soldiers, sleeping soldiers, women, children, including including a
(23:52):
child doing a child, could they be a graver provocation?
Prime mister Washbay said our parkiller I was a left
We thought three days and nothing happens. What happens now
you just understand this and then get the west hal
(24:14):
These nuclear weapons are not nuclear cap museum pieces, honey,
They are not to be you know, we will use them. Now,
look at this What word shall I use for them?
The the juvenile West, the innocent West. Washington gets scandalized
by this complicit West. You have to complicit y baf SO, USMC,
(24:40):
Western embass businesses exist and their media, our media lectures
the Indian state and says you are irresponsible. You are
threatening war in a nuclearized subcontinent. You are being irresponsible.
And we say, oh, we are being responsible, good strategic restraint.
(25:03):
And now let me tell you there's somebody whom I respect.
Seeing Kaluchak. What happens how they waved the nuclear attle?
This is very important to understand. Just one thing. He
writes in the book that the purpose of Parakhram was
to contain terrorism without conflict. Just decode it for me.
What does it mean with a chap like Pakistan? Do
(25:25):
the understanding language. Then, he says he the purpose of
Parakram was to assolge the feelings, hurt feelings of the Indians.
And the third point is extremely important. He says, my
most taxing challenge as a defense minister was to teach
restraint to my service chiefs. Imagine now a service chiefs
(25:48):
meant to exercise restraint or they meant to war fight.
Now you see this West Parking narrative is bought by
the West. We also buy it. In the army. Strategic
Christrain became a matter of high brow intellect. So if
you were a you know, well read soldio, you said Christraint,
if I am a clever Pakistan in Como yesterday. Such
(26:16):
was the mood and frustration of those times that aren't
sure it made that famous thing he said when he
was asked, he said, you know, it is not an
eye for an eye, not a tooth for a tooth
for one eye, both the eyes for a tooth, the
whole jaw. You have to understand the background, which is
what has happened happened. Second point, another luminary, let's say,
(26:39):
made front of friend fun of the instrument of force
very interestingly he said, air force and a general sub
gal zoom. But he's right, he was right. And then
there was professional advice. K P. S. Gil Gil said,
(26:59):
you will when the war on terror by chasing terrorists
or merely chasing terrorists, which is what we have done,
you will win it by overwhelming the adversary a pressure
to Bumia. You will realize how Obsen Dour is so
significant because it has converted the mood, the frustration, the despair,
(27:22):
even the wisdom of those times into a new strategic reality.
So I say my conclusion about ops and theur is two,
it has underlined the utility of fos. We have understood
what force can do. And two it has called this
schoolboy nuclear bluff on terror, schoolboy nuclear bluff. And here
I again get my Western counterparts. Tell me what is
(27:45):
this nuclear theology? Nuclear weapons are to be used when
you are threatened existentially? Yaha. Thesematos were using the rattle
to launch a nuclear go on a nuclear terror rampage.
Can this be any any logic in this? Should they
(28:06):
have questioned the logic or said no, no, no, no nuclearized subcontinent.
This is the nonsense. Now what has the government primes
to MOOI and the current dispensation done. They have said,
de boss, terror is no longer a low cost option,
so low you do it, No Khan will be it.
(28:26):
This is what has changed.
Speaker 1 (28:29):
Every d We'll do a separate podcast on it. Because
I was anchoring, anchored through the night both when the
terror bases were hit and subsequently when eleven Pakistans is
more than eleven of their air bases and radar stations
were hit. And then when I met some of the
soldiers would hit them, including Pasur and uh Tunia. And
(28:51):
with the armen is about the operation. Army. Army did
a great job, so while air force walks away with
a cake and doing a tell a job.
Speaker 2 (29:01):
Good job. But I'm told of the nine targets seven seven,
and I met those soldiers who hit always nanimous doesn't
take credit.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
But Barkune soldiers videos they came. I went down on
ground and met them.
Speaker 2 (29:20):
The Pakistani counter attack incidenttly when they use their high
speed missiles.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
They also tried to target some white classes vital points.
They were intercepted. Fortunately, but again the Chinese system, the
Chinese missiles didn't work. So even if they're building, as
you said, ten thousand missiles, those missiles are intercepted.
Speaker 2 (29:39):
So therefore you tell me the j ten Jason is
a party man. Mari insurgents have.
Speaker 1 (29:49):
Brought seventeen, but seventeen China is not flying the Pakistan Pakistan.
Speaker 2 (29:54):
Number hardware Kraft, the Chinese Krave Pakistan Capilot Bay for
both is good news for us. But see now what
have they done? This is what we have to see
now to the new Trinity forty J thirty five a
stellth HQ nineteen not HQ nine nineteen kJ five hundred
(30:17):
new ad system by paper with the way. But I'm impressive.
But you can't plan on this basis. Of course, you
have to pray. At least. The Indian military is told
that you must never underestimate your adversary. True, so I
will say, don't underestimate them. But a the military component
(30:43):
of the power differential with China is four fifty billion
dollars four fifty billion dollars. Now they are limits to valor.
So the Indian state has to decide can we spend more?
Should we spend more? And here I'll oil attention though
have they palay? Two young Indian economists so not the
(31:04):
old school ones. They wrote a very good article saying
that this guns versus growth is a false debate one.
But more interestingly they said, investments in defense courting American
peer review journals and all have a fiscal multiplier close
to two. This is economics. Now economy is saying that.
(31:25):
So they are saying that it is a misnomer and
you must get him on your show. Everybody keep a
current defense. May it adds one rep to your GDP.
Absolutely what have you been told? All these defense is
a wastage of money? So we must pick these lies.
And I'm saying, revisit the the medrics of your economic
(31:48):
state craft or quch khushbarrow because my favorite line deterans
may be costly, but what is that costly? Ask the Ukrainians.
So all these issues need to be revisited. So I'm saying,
there is very good news one hundred generals getting sacked
JF seventeen not working, jen not working. But you can't
(32:09):
base your planning on these parameters. Not no, but you
know one they're being sacked.
Speaker 1 (32:14):
Two they're committing or they're being driven to committing suicide
or dying by suicide. Or they're being killed either by
those close to she or those opposed to she. So
for example, you were talking about you know, he Hung
Jun and part of my pronunciation the deputy chief of
CMC died by suicide within a year of appointment.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Critic is Admiral Miao Hua. He too was purged, and
he was seen as someone who was loyal to Jen Ping.
So when someone loyal to Jen Ping is being removed
and his promotion had been fast tracked.
Speaker 1 (32:50):
What does that indicate?
Speaker 2 (32:53):
So you know that is all part of Chinese palace
intrigues and China phrase have that to scare the lion,
kick the monkey. So if you want to get at Z,
kick his lieutenants. So all this is going on over there.
But the serious point is that you see what we
(33:13):
now call is politico military convict convergence. No strategic military
system can be built on palace intrigues. There has to
be trust between the CDs and the Prime Minister, between
the CDs and the Daksha man Thri, which leads to
good decisions cohesion. So we have all that advantage. Our
(33:35):
biggest advantage people don't realize is a professional military under
political control. Absolutely, Pakistan is an unprofessional military bucking political control.
Yeto palace intrigues. The same way, I I and you
are two generals. This time i'll make you the Chinese general.
I hope you'll accept it. The fact is trusting. I'm chackering.
(33:59):
So these are all good side.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
So I also want to now come to from generals
to their ministers. November twenty twenty four, there were reports
that quoted intelligence officials saying Admiral Dung Jun, China's minister
was being proved for corruption their defense minister. Then when
she took par in twenty twelve, he promoted all these
(34:21):
thirty first Army Group generals. He brought his people to
the top. Li shong Fu removed as Defense Minister October
twenty twenty three. The statement made severely polluting military procurement systems.
So the generals are corrupt, their ministers are corrupt.
Speaker 2 (34:38):
So exactly you see when z came to par, he
came to bar on the slogan of of not only
the flies, but also the Tigers club, your corruption mayor
chot also the tigers, and he said, I will get
my men and I will take out corruption. It was
a major plank with him, a low cares up jinku,
aplae where he corrupted corupt. So what is your political
(35:03):
locus STANDI what was this whole mission about flies and tigers?
So he's been questioned on multiple fronts or real estate.
So these are certainly bad days for the Chinese. But
let me tell you one more thing. One last week China.
One Western guide wrote a book on China, The Bubble
(35:24):
That Never Pops, and he says China downfall theory. That
is true. I may also be victim of one of those,
but awfully time seeing serious strains in it. But the
point is you have to keep a very close watch
on plea because Chinese, I am very clear, China khan
(35:49):
one tiger on a hill and they are going to
take it. They take this fight to the finish. So
what is their priority Taiwan or India or these? You know,
as they say that.
Speaker 1 (36:05):
These five fingers they want, they want Tibet, they want
lad Dak, they want Achal, Pradesh, uh Nepal, Bhutan, they
said the other five fingers, and Tibet is the palm?
Speaker 2 (36:16):
Do they actually I know?
Speaker 1 (36:17):
But would they focus on this or would they focus
on Taiwan?
Speaker 2 (36:20):
See, we must focus on one Chinese saying, which loosely translated,
is like this. It says, the first time I slap you,
it is my fault. The second time I slap you,
it is yours. Oh absolutely, so we have been slapped
once since sixty two. Now I make this point. For
the first time in history, you have the words number
(36:42):
one and number three economies in PPP terms, first time
in history, growing in close proximity and now no Himalayas.
Himalayas have been breached by technology in Tibet, Kibaki, no
buffer like Tibet. Your geostrategic trajectories are bound to clash.
The only way to keep this intersect peaceful is by
(37:04):
investing in deterance and not hoping that nothing will happen,
because that hope did what it did to us in
nineteen sixty two when mister Nero was told and he
said no, no, no, I will take care, and he wanted
to disband the army at all that, and he died
a broken man. Taiwan Valley.
Speaker 1 (37:23):
So.
Speaker 2 (37:24):
I was an army commander during Gulwan, so two years
before Galwan, one year when all this build up was
taking place in the WTC. Each time we asked Kibai,
what is this build up being taken, we were told no.
The word was no, no. His primary orientation is Taiwan.
Dominica's our primary orientation Taiwan. Then we were told, you know,
(37:48):
these agreements generals were breach. You can't be breached.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
But they had already been breached in twenty seventeen in Doleums.
Speaker 2 (37:57):
But here too he breached them with impunity, with impunity, punity.
So Babar never trust all this primary orientation Taiwan. This
is all that high brow intellect primary. It sounds very
good and they have never been breeched general they preached.
So I'm saying the only thing will works with the
Chinese is deterance. After Galwan, when we have hit them
(38:20):
at many places and you would know that it's never
been made public. They were driven to do what they
did in Kazan. So the lesson with China is deterans,
invest in deterance and not hope. And see now one
more thing about China. There is no evidence, but I
am very clear what is China doing to us? It
(38:40):
is saying they go one tiger on a hill in
say amaramkab. You know when the Prime mister was in Kazan.
You see the readout. The readout said multipolar world, but
quite on Asia. India says multipolar world, multipolar Asia. They
keep quiet on that. They are very clear. It is
one tiger on a hill, a good bay Kufe. Pakistan
(39:07):
is Colorado, test your equipment laboratories with him. So here
you have terror Pakistan and Turkey and China terror. If
you've been following Aurev. I think last week was before that,
at least I saw it for the first time, the
formation of the Theik Taliban Kashmir. So you now have
(39:29):
T T A T T P T TK. I'm telling
you at this point they will be plotting something. I
have no doubt in what is worse, and I've been
saying this for the last one two months. We have
a new national security reality in banglades You just see
a few things. Look at this whole business. The eyes
(39:51):
side chief has visited three to four times. Waker Zaman,
who's pro India, Q whoa radical Islamis type terrorists, Jamats Islamists.
Look what they are doing to you know, the minorities Hindus.
(40:17):
Suddenly La, this guy starts seeing the landlockedness of the
Seven States, LA Monhart Air Base, The Bangladesh inventry is
seventy to seventy five Chinese. The Rakein Corridor will get
weaponized for terror fueled by drug I am reasonably certain
the next terror attack will come from banglades from What
(40:39):
will you do? So either they heep Pakistan, Bangladesh, China,
instabilities in myanmarra problem. Now if I'm China, I mean
in India WA and then there is this four hundred
ship navy which is not going to patrol its coastlines.
(41:02):
So we have to realize that we are in a
very grim strategic environment.
Speaker 1 (41:09):
When you look at this situation on ground in our
you know, you you give the example that you hit
the monkey and scare the time tiger. There's also that
other saying that you slaughter the chicken to scare the monkey.
If we've slaughtered the chicken in Absindur, does the monkey
get the signal? Because how many A bases do they
(41:29):
have in occupied Tibet? If we can take down eleven
bases in Pakistan, how many bases god forbid? Should the
balloon go up can be taken down? And does he
have the air defense system?
Speaker 2 (41:41):
I mean, I'm only speculating as a total civilian, a
man to ask you a very very very apt question.
Speaker 1 (41:47):
So see, I look at it, and if you can
take down his access to Tibet.
Speaker 2 (41:52):
So my answer to that is this that I don't
think that we have a threat from the LAC. My answer,
we have rebalanced suption troops, meg armor, logistics, force multipliers,
which he thinks is aggressive, thinks we know what we
are doing. The only thing where he's beating us is
(42:15):
in persistent surveillance AI, drones, swarms, rocket force, strategic support force.
Look at his nuclear posture. So in this technologically driven
domains we are behind the Maria theory. Here that now
that you have got a very robust posture along the
LAC and your startups have grown for ten years. Now
(42:38):
they are ripe. You use some of these startups to
give technology to the LAC. The posture plus that technology
will is good enough to provide failed proof deterance along
the LAC. Only as far as the larger China challenge
is concerned. In technology, AI, all that stuff, he is good.
Speaker 1 (42:59):
You have to.
Speaker 2 (43:00):
Acknowledge he's leading in quantum. We must get into what
I call the thong hide and bide. Invest in that
so fail proved veterans along the LAC make sure that
doesn't fall and that can be done. And the larger
challenge we have to invest and build. So I make
this point, you know at the end of it. When
I was young, we were told India strategic outlook Mara outlook,
(43:25):
a peaceful external environment, a benign internal environment, and focus
on the growth of your one forty three core citizenry,
good idea first class, except it's not happening in the
real world. India has to learn to plot its rise
through multiple crisis, conflict and confrontations. Sindur is only the
(43:46):
beginning and humkakering abi Sindhuru do me pio the debates
will go. I'm saying, not episodic nourishment of the military,
but enduring capacities and through made in India equipment and
as far as possible certainly and critical operations apps. You
(44:08):
will have to do with that. So it is entirely doable.
And what we should not do what Pakistan is doing.
We should focus on our growth, focus on technology, technological renaissance.
We have talent. This is our moment. We should just
be careful on the national security front. Otherwise, you know,
this journey to I'm with Karl is not going to
(44:30):
be a smooth ride. But can we get too of
hi said Barata. I have no doubt provided we are
little cautious about our national security about these investments, but
there are challenges. I'm also of the view that our
strategic environment maybe as grim, if not grimmer than Israel.
You tell me who is these kind.
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Of threats true, So we really have to pick up.
Speaker 2 (44:51):
Our game in national security.
Speaker 1 (44:52):
That's the large and that's exactly why the conversations are
very interesting that a lot of those conversations are happening.
For example, it's people driven initiative that you must invest
in your caver E engine so that you have your
domestic fighter jet engine. So you in the interim you
may have to buy an engine, whether you get it
from France or Russia for your fighter jets. But then
we're also focusing on maiden and now let's be honest.
(45:15):
And now let's be honest.
Speaker 2 (45:16):
There's a lovely line in Hindi. It says saamatka sahasma both.
So you took the engine. So let me say I'm
making this point. Amka is not happening with these two
point five like engineers. Sure, if you want to get AMCA,
pay them cross So flexible recruitment models for our HL
(45:37):
and DADO. Yeah, startups, Johann Le may contem chant. They
are hiring du scrow Q engineers. The competition is different.
Let's take technology another issue. I'll give you one piece
of data two thousand and three to two thousand and
seven in all critical emerging technologies. There are sixty five
(46:00):
of them tabled by SPO, Australian Strategic Policy Institute. The
sole superpower USA leads in sixty out of sixty five,
but then China does its thousand talents planned as Boras strategy.
By twenty nineteen, China is leading in fifty seven out
of sixty five. Look at the dramatic inversion and technology.
(46:23):
So can India not pick ten technologies and saying by
does sal me? Does may argue only yea amri kamiam
ye kernel and one thing. I'll say technological innovation has
picked up, but it's not going to happen unless we
deregulate jo i fa system here. It has to change.
(46:43):
It is meant for a different era, or it will
kill innovation. It will kill energy and enterprise. Financial advisor
rakshamantra Imajo hota he vowala system.
Speaker 1 (46:53):
You're saying has has to go, and I.
Speaker 2 (46:56):
Am appealing to them kipna system banadi, but you otherwise
it's not going to.
Speaker 1 (47:02):
Work for the benefit of this podcast. Do you think
the Chinese army is at war with itself? Is that
what is happening between various gangs and groups and generals
within the Chinese army. Because I was reading someway. So
there's a there's a shansi and if I'm pronouncing that correctly,
there's a shansi gang. There's a fuji and clique, and
(47:24):
they're going after each other.
Speaker 2 (47:26):
See the way the Chinese system works is that each
of their generals have a political mentor, so they are aligned.
So there will be people in Zi's gang, they will
people in hu Jin Thou's gang and hope that your
guy comes to power. You see, unlike us, which is
a very professional military, we don't get politically mentored. They
their system is like that or political commissioner who from
(47:50):
the party, because their army is also that belongs to
the party and not to the country. You take your gamble.
So if I'm a bright general, I will choose a.
Speaker 1 (48:00):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (48:01):
You make a choice. That's the way it happens.
Speaker 1 (48:04):
No, but canon army like that, and your professional assessment.
If an army where generals are going after each other,
and you've seen them up close and personally. You saw
what happened in Dolom in twenty seventeen, you've seen what
happened in sixty seven at Nathula at Sundorong Chu through
through nineteen eighties and nineties. You've seen them through and through.
(48:25):
Are they a professional war fighting army or do they
only believe in either scaring you or using, you know,
threatening to use their rockets and missiles, Because when you
also start using your rockets and missiles, then it's who
fights better on day one and day four? And are
they using elements within our country to weaken us mentally?
Because I've seen so many people in our own country
(48:46):
who would like you, those intellectual generals I'll talk about
intellectual journalists so called, and analysts who would talk about
strategic restraints when it comes to Pakistan or pedal Pakistan's agenda,
the amankeiyashawalas that. But the brigade of Vaga and those
who say Chinese army is way too strong. You cannot
deal with them. So you know what's the haham?
Speaker 2 (49:06):
If you give up more territory to them, that's a
spicious argument. Why should we give have territory? See if
you see them over the last six, seven, eight years,
in any of these physical contests, we have hammered them.
So physically we are stronger, we are more hardy than them.
They are many stories of that.
Speaker 1 (49:26):
Then they say robots sake lading, and we'll have robots
who will fight in high multitudes.
Speaker 2 (49:31):
So we'll come to that. So that is one part
of it. When it comes to professionalism. For all the
reasons that I've said, we are superior sunk basic problem.
A CEO of a battalion is also supervised by a
political commissar. Just put it in India. If an infantry battalion
is supervised by some member of Congress or somebody, how
would that thing work? So those are inherent problems in
(49:54):
their military. So to at least a professional military mind,
these are major weaknesses. Palace entry, one hundred genders lived.
These are all very welcome science because generalship all these things,
leadership and all matters. But that other piece of technology
and capacity. I will put it like this. So, actually
the Chinese are only five feet tall. What they are
(50:16):
biologically true, but what they do and what we make
excuses and don't do makes them eight feet tall. By
what they do and by what we don't do, they
become ten feet tall. If a system true HAMARII quick
(50:38):
atas have you know they are autocracy. We are a democracy.
I say, open society, closed minds, close society, open minds
a constitutions. So, of course the Chinese are just five
feet tall, so the argument is complicated. They could be
(50:59):
so social media fluff. There is a lot of weaknesses
in their HR system. These are plus signs, but technologies
those things matter. Now what is the final argument. The
final argument is go to Ukraine, Ukraine, Mikiahurai. You have
World War One trench warfare, ulood and gore. You have
Cold War legacy systems, but don't forget that cutting edge
(51:23):
technology is taking warfare to a new high. Look at
it rules absolutely. Now Chinese are known to be masters
out rown, but not battle proven, not battle.
Speaker 1 (51:33):
Proven unless they're not giving their best to Pakistan and
saving it for themselves.
Speaker 2 (51:37):
Perhaps perhaps I think there they won't give their best
to them and see look at their whole design. This
winning without fighting has to be seen restrict in to Taiwan.
I gave you that data. Two thirds amphibious force, forty
two brigades, Hooker, care Rose a hypothetically trump phil As Paparo.
(52:04):
Can you match him? Paparo will say no, now no,
So I'll give you a larger example, which has to
be understood how these yaps do it. Nineteen forty eight,
Mao is waiting to cross the Taiwan street. He says
they are soaw kilometer, Hey chay then lagging unopposed, Hey,
Taiwan will be ours. When he says that the Americans
(52:27):
send their seventh fleet, he backs off. This is repeated
in fifty eight. This time the Americans threatened nuclear weapons.
He again backs off. Nineteen ninety five, then again the
Taiwan crisis happens. Bill Clinton sends two aircraft carriers. The
(52:47):
Chinese back off for the third time. But now they
say A two a d ANTI excess area denial. Thus,
Pandra sal when they were making these missiles, Americans were
writing articles how these missiles will miss the ships. Today
Paparo says, I cannot send my aircraft carriers into the
(53:08):
first talent chain because they will be destroyed. Now, if
American power can't project into the first talent chain, what
does it do to the geopolitical outcomes? And now you
just see a very transactional Trump. If Trump is told
that we will lose blood, share them horey cat Trump
commit Taiwan, May I have my teep touts so winning
(53:33):
without fighting. They haven't fought just by posturing. They have
told the pose the question to the adversary. Kibos, this
is the bigger worry. And the last time they fought
in seventy nine, they were a disaster and they.
Speaker 1 (53:49):
Were given of bloody nose. In fact, I was reporting
from Taiwan when that big thread happened, and when Nancy
Pelosi visited Taiwan, I was reporting from Taiwan, and I
visited the i which is clear nearest to the Chinese mainland.
So the Taiwanese army and the government, they insist that
their policy of porcupine defense, we have so many missiles
(54:13):
that we will take the Chinese down at least the
first couple of waves of attacks. After that will help
come or not. But will Japan let that happen, Will
other countries let that happen? And will America.
Speaker 2 (54:25):
Then meekly surrender even if you know Taiwan has fought
off the Chinese two rounds.
Speaker 1 (54:31):
Or three rounds.
Speaker 2 (54:31):
If you see the recent statements of Hexit, then Bridge,
Colby and all, it's very clear they have told Taiwan
spend more is difficult, so they have told them spend
ten percent. We will see whether we come or not.
They're leaving it ambiguous. With Japan, they are firm because
they know that if Japan folds up Korea flds up,
(54:56):
then that is the end of American power. So I
suspect they will come to the aid of say Japan's
South Korea, Taiwan, there are question marks, question marks, and
see why they may let Taiwan go but not Japan
in South Korea because if Japan and South Korea fall,
that will be like the suize moment for US American
(55:18):
power will collapse. So I'm going I'm saying that Taiwan
question mark. You know. So with India also, they are
hoping this key by Pakistan Ladega Bangladesh. If you actually
ask me, if I'm an non military guy, what is
the geopolitical risk of a full fledged war with China,
I'll say two percent. They are going to fight. They
(55:40):
will make Bangladesh and Pakistan all this. But in a crisis,
now she look at the rocket force. If we know
that one hundred thousand missiles are pointing at us and
we do not have AD and we do not have that,
what decision will you take? So I'm saying create the capacities.
He will not fight, he will back off and you
(56:02):
can grow hamari. Unfortunately, what is the theory why spend now?
You cannot take care of China at one you cannot.
Like Maharanata also needed Bahamasha to fight. We need a
bahmashas right now. So if we are sensible about this,
China is not a threat. But sometimes we are not
so sensible. That's the whole point.
Speaker 1 (56:24):
No, I think with with the strategic conversations uh and
and now in this interconnected world, there is realization. Now
nobody will buy the Hindi chini bai bai, even if
anybody tries to force it down our throat.
Speaker 2 (56:38):
That is the new generation. The new generation thankfully is visor.
It's not so innocent.
Speaker 1 (56:44):
But I wish that stop buying the made in China
equipment or everything made in China. I mean, we seem
to still buy everything made in China, or we still
want those Pakistani artists in our movies. I don't understand
this at all. There is no man kiyasha when they
want to kill you, when when the reason exist as
gazbay hind But.
Speaker 2 (57:02):
Seeing prince in reality, what are the difficulty? So we've
had ten years of making India defense. We have today
about one hundred hundred and fifty drone companies. The tragedy
is key drone may Bara's components. Bara may say eleven
are imported and nine are imported from China. So that
(57:24):
larger military industrial base has to come up. War Johannes,
we have, you know, not let that base come up
for decades. Can't be changed overnight. This is our problem
with China, even in the military domain, were across the world.
Speaker 1 (57:38):
We need to kind of completely think how we can
cut away from that. But on this discussion that that
one line which always impresses me about Ramdhari Singh Dinker
is from Shakti and Shama, which I'm total is also
your favorite. Yes, you know because Lord ram also for
three days he kept requesting the ocean give me way,
(58:02):
and the ocean didn't. Now the moment he pulled his
bow and arrow, the ocean gave way and said, how
you can go to.
Speaker 2 (58:10):
This point we were making about Western elites are elites.
Look at their lack of clarity and look at the
clarity that ram Hari Singin has. He was just a
street poet, just a street street poet. But look at
the clarity he had on diplomacy, state craft and all those. Absolutely,
(58:30):
when he says, what is that bust the head?
Speaker 1 (58:34):
He bust the head deep the Niki Sanka just may shut.
Speaker 2 (58:40):
The common sense. So it's not.
Speaker 1 (58:43):
Only the brave are respected.
Speaker 2 (58:45):
No, yeah, obviously, and common sense military power not to
jackboot around the world, but precise, calibrated, technologically enabled military power.
See next time, what should we do. We should not
take out the brother in laws of Masuda or his
four wives. We should take out Masuds or himself. For that,
you need even more refined capacities in space. So that
(59:09):
is the kind we need.
Speaker 1 (59:11):
More lower the orbiting satellites, that's where we need. I
will leave that for another day because that's again an
area where India needs to focus a lot on AliOS.
We need to do that absent in the ALIO, Absent
the low earth orbiting.
Speaker 2 (59:27):
All military capacities come only from the ALIO. I'm told
some projectors on it will take five to six years,
but I say this year they need to spirit it up.
Speaker 1 (59:36):
But I want to end and Jener, thank you very
much for joining me. So what an outstanding discussion with you.
We can go on and on and on, but perhaps
we such.
Speaker 2 (59:46):
Pleasure for another than thank you very much for having
me and all the best you. Once again, thank you
very much, and I want to end with that line
of Ramdhari dinkar in Shakti and Shama Shama shobut just
get past girl, Hey Uskoka, Joe, wish heen wish beneath sa.
(01:00:08):
You have to be strong to be in a position
to forgive, because nobody respects a weak person, a week leader,
or a weak country.
Speaker 1 (01:00:17):
And this we can see from our scriptures, our culture,
our history, our civilizational history.
Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
Many thanks for watching
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