August 5, 2025 • 14 mins
This episode is structured around five critical pillars that are framing the natural gas narrative in 2025 and beyond. We'll take a closer look at the significant capacity-building efforts with numerous US LNG terminals under construction, and why reliability is non-negotiable amidst rising AI-induced power demands. Witness how US LNG is wielded as energy diplomacy, offering a lifeline to allies while maintaining a strategic edge globally. Finally, we tackle the crucial need for permitting reform continuity, ensuring predictable and consistent development in the energy sector. This is more than just an episode—it's a roadmap for understanding the essential elements shaping the energy landscape for years to come.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Charged Conversations, where we discuss the latest on
energy and energy related topics. I'm your host, Brigham mccount.
Of this episode, we will be talking about natural gas
and Trump's energy strategy, what's changing, what's next, and what
it means for US consumers, allies abroad, and America's industrial competitives.
(00:31):
Why natural gas and why now? Well?
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Natural gas sits at the crossroads of affordability, reliability, and geopolitics. Domestically,
it remains the main fuel source for electric generation in
most regions and the indispensable swing source that stabilizes the
grid when renewables underperform or demand spikes. Internationally, US liquefied
(00:55):
natural gas or USLNG has become a critical backs to
allies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine rerouted global gas flows.
There are two forces that raise the stakes right here
in twenty twenty five. The first AI and data centers.
These are both driving a sharp, persistent surge and electricity demand.
(01:17):
Utilities and grid planners report constrained capacity and accelerating interconnection queues,
and public reporting shows power availability is now a broad
level risk for hyperscalers. This is new and its consequential.
The second, the policy posture in Washington, DC is pivoted.
The current administration is indicated it and tends to end
(01:40):
the prior pause on new non free trade agreement LNG
export authorizations and return to regular order at the Department
of Energy, with the DOE signaling in May of twenty
twenty five that it completed the outstanding process items needed
to move forward on LERG permits. I guess that backdrop
natural gas is boys to do three things at once.
(02:02):
It'll keep the power prices in check, underwrite reliability for
a digitizing economy, and project energy security abroad through LG exports.
Let's frame the strategy around five pillars. Number one is
restoring certainty to a LNG permitting process. The administration has
(02:24):
moved to unwind the twenty twenty four pause on DOE
export determinations, all of those except for those required under
law to continue. That is, countries we had a free
trade agreement with stopped. The practical effect is to reopen
the project pipeline at DOE, align DOE timelines with FURK
environmental and citing decisions, and reduce country risk premiums that
(02:49):
had crept into financing for multi billion dollar export terminals.
In late twenty twenty five, we saw a notable new
signal Finchure Global reached final investment decisions on Phase one
of CP two LNG, a marquee Gulf Coast project. This
illustrates how permitting clarity Unlocke's capital Pillar two building capacity
(03:11):
terminals now underway. Multiple large USLNG terminals or expansions are
under construction. I should also mention that the Department of
Transportations Maritime Administration, along with the United States Coast Guard,
plays central roles in conducting the environmental studies for these projects,
and that includes phase one of Port Arthur LNG, which
(03:32):
is moving forward with commercial operations targeted for later this decade.
We also see the Rio Grande LNG Phase one in Brownsville.
Three trains are under construction, with additional phases and commercialization
and development. Golden Pass LNG was delayed by contractor challenges,
but first exports may slip toward twenty twenty six, but
this is a cautionary reminder that execution risk is real
(03:55):
even when policy is favorable. Finally, Schneer is preserving additional
Corpus Christy Sabine capacity market guidance further points to expansion
through mid depth CAID. Pillar number three gas for the
grid meeting AI demand, EIA and industry analysis indicate the
data center electricity consumption is rising quickly, reshaping local forecasts
(04:18):
twenty thirty and beyond. While efficiency gains help, total demand
still grows and that pushes grid operators towards dispatchable power gas,
nuclear hydro. Because reliability events are expensive and politically salient,
expect support for modern CCGTS, fast start, aero, derivative peakers,
(04:41):
and pipeline expansion to serve load pockets near data center clusters.
Pillar four is export power energy diplomacy via LNG USLNG
has proven its strategic value contracts indexing to Henry hobb
or hydrid formulas have offered price and supply diversification to
(05:01):
Europe and Asia. The policy through line is this accelerate
long dated off take, promote open investment, and maintain sanctions
pressure on maligne actors while using LNG as a stabilizer.
The CP two fit underscores buyer confidence at US policy
is once again predictable. Pillar five permitting reform continuity offshore
(05:26):
natural gas relies on streamline federal permitting from first certificates,
Core four or four approvals, coordinated NEAT studies with DHS
and DOT. The strategic objective is consistent deadlines, predictable documentation,
and litigation risk management. This continuity allows midstream and power
(05:49):
developers to price risk and proceed, So listeners often ask
how much l G can the US really add this cycle,
and the answer depends on construction schedules, commissioning risk, and financing.
Let's throw out a few markers. The existing base as
of twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five includes Sabine Pass,
(06:11):
Corpus Christi Camera and Freeport Cove Point and Calxhushu Point Pass,
which is not easy to say. EIA's official liquefication capacity
tables and today in Energy notes show that the system's
steady expansion is continuing with uncertainty, specifically around Golden Pass
(06:34):
and Phase two of Plaque minds timing under construction, Port
Arthur Phase one, Rio Grand Phase one. These are additional
core editions that are likely to shape balances during the
second half of the decade, assuming typical commissioning curves. There's
certainly some potential upside from CP two's phase one engineers
(06:57):
incremental expansions which could add meaningful output in the late
twenty twenty window, but remember execution discipline and availability still governed.
Execution watch list Golden Pass delays rooted in EPC contractor
issues illustrate how single point constraints can ripple into the
(07:19):
global balance. The bottom line is that the US will
remain a swing supplier of lergy growth this decade, but
the pace is a function of policy stability and construction reality.
There's another saying out there, you can't burn gas that
you can't deliver. Three threads matter Number one pipelines and compression.
(07:41):
Incremental pipeline capacity, loopings, de bottlenecking and compression add ons
are essential to move marcellus utica and permium molecules to market.
Most of these projects rise or fall on permitting timelines
and landowner engagement. When right sized, expansions can be low
profile but high impact measured in a few hundred million
(08:04):
cubic feet per day that keep the region's spark spread
under control in summer and winter peaks. The second thread
is new gas fire generation. The data center boom is
changing the math. Developers are pairing ccgts with on site
or near on site data center clusters to ensure power
(08:24):
availability and latency. Regional planning organizations will need to reconcile
resource adequacy with emission constraints, and states will confront trade
offs between price stability and tight carbon markets. For near
term reliability, gas units often offer the quickest permitting, OEM
(08:46):
supply chains and system integration better understood than new nuclear
or long lead transmission projects. That said, the third thread
is the state federal interl Even with federal reforms, state
citing for plants and intrastate pipes can delay schedules. Expect
(09:08):
new federal policies to encourage cooperative federalism, expedited reviews where
states opt in, and tighter shot clocks where federal agencies
are lead. The goal is not to sideline states, but
to reduce duplicative processes that don't change environmental outcomes. Critics
often frame gas expansion is incompatible with climate goals, pointing
(09:32):
to methane short term warming potential. But the policy response
is measurement plus mitigation. We say measurement that wider deployment
of continuous monitoring, aerial surveys and satellite verification reduces uncertainty
and creates verifiable methane baselines. LDR programs, plunge your lifts,
(09:54):
dry seal compressors, and improve pneumatics all cut emission intensity
at a reasonable cost. This mitigation is important, especially when
compared to system wide reliability failures. Competitiveness us L andng's
full cycle emissions can be competitive with coal to gas
(10:15):
switching abroad, particularly when paired with efficiency improvements and methane controls.
Buyers increasingly write environmental attributes into spas US sellers can
respond with certified gas and transparent reporting. In short, methane
debatement is a feature, not a bug, of a modern
(10:36):
gas strategy, and it strengthens, not weakens the export case.
A quick note about Alaska LNG. Its strategic logic is
two full first shorter Pacific roots to Northeast Asia and
second supplied diversification that reduces Gulf Coast hurricane risk concentration.
(10:57):
But Alaska faces cost in financing hurles that make timing uncertain.
If policy clarity, long term Asian off take and concessional
infrastructure financing a line Alaska becomes a real option late
this decade. If not, Gulf Coast projects will continue to
set the tempo. Even favorable policy can be undone by
(11:21):
practical constraints. However, skilled labor availability, large bore valves, cryogenic
heat exchangers, any of these can elongate critical paths. Golden
Pass is a case studying this. Lawsuits and reopen records
or expand scope beyond statutory requirements can add years. Litigation
(11:43):
and permitting drift or reel. Consistent NEPA time lines and
disciplined record building do matter. Market cycles do also. Mild
winners and Asian demand shocks can soften prices and slow fits. Conversely,
European storage draw or unplanned outages will tighten balances and
(12:04):
pull additional US cargoes. And finally, it's all about grid integration.
Data center growth if not matched with dispatchable resources and transmission,
can trigger regional price spikes and reliability events. Utilities are
already flagging that risk. Finally, let's define what success looks
(12:28):
like in concrete terms. First, DOE regular order restored, second
on time commissioning, third pipeline and power plant permits, fourth
methane management, and five allied energy security. If we hit
those marks, natural gas policy won't be a culture war,
(12:52):
It'll be an economic development Plan and a national security strategy.
To summarize thanks rising, especially from AI driven data centers.
Keeping the grid affordable and sustainable requires adequate base load
and dispatchable power and gas is the proven near term option.
(13:13):
Second policy is shifted to support energy growth by restoring DOE,
permitting regular order, and aligning with FIRK processes. Third, projects
are moving, though executional risk remains. Multiple facilities have been cleared,
are under construction, or even have been received their licenses. Fourth,
(13:37):
emission's credibility is compatible with growth via methane measurement and mitigation.
And last, the US can strengthen allies and anchor global
energy security by remaining the world's reliable swing LNG producer.
You've been listening to Charged Conversations Joe Strecker Production, I'm
your host Brigham account. Feel free to drop us a
(13:59):
line over at Charged Conversations at bamacown dot com. If
you like what you've been listening to, hit that subscribe button.
I'll see you next time on another episode of Charged Conversations.
Welcome to Charged Conversations, where we discuss the latest on
energy and energy related topics. I'm your host, Brigham mccount.
Of this episode, we will be talking about natural gas
and Trump's energy strategy, what's changing, what's next, and what
it means for US consumers, allies abroad, and America's industrial competitives.
(00:31):
Why natural gas and why now? Well?
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Natural gas sits at the crossroads of affordability, reliability, and geopolitics. Domestically,
it remains the main fuel source for electric generation in
most regions and the indispensable swing source that stabilizes the
grid when renewables underperform or demand spikes. Internationally, US liquefied
(00:55):
natural gas or USLNG has become a critical backs to
allies since Russia's invasion of Ukraine rerouted global gas flows.
There are two forces that raise the stakes right here
in twenty twenty five. The first AI and data centers.
These are both driving a sharp, persistent surge and electricity demand.
(01:17):
Utilities and grid planners report constrained capacity and accelerating interconnection queues,
and public reporting shows power availability is now a broad
level risk for hyperscalers. This is new and its consequential.
The second, the policy posture in Washington, DC is pivoted.
The current administration is indicated it and tends to end
(01:40):
the prior pause on new non free trade agreement LNG
export authorizations and return to regular order at the Department
of Energy, with the DOE signaling in May of twenty
twenty five that it completed the outstanding process items needed
to move forward on LERG permits. I guess that backdrop
natural gas is boys to do three things at once.
(02:02):
It'll keep the power prices in check, underwrite reliability for
a digitizing economy, and project energy security abroad through LG exports.
Let's frame the strategy around five pillars. Number one is
restoring certainty to a LNG permitting process. The administration has
(02:24):
moved to unwind the twenty twenty four pause on DOE
export determinations, all of those except for those required under
law to continue. That is, countries we had a free
trade agreement with stopped. The practical effect is to reopen
the project pipeline at DOE, align DOE timelines with FURK
environmental and citing decisions, and reduce country risk premiums that
(02:49):
had crept into financing for multi billion dollar export terminals.
In late twenty twenty five, we saw a notable new
signal Finchure Global reached final investment decisions on Phase one
of CP two LNG, a marquee Gulf Coast project. This
illustrates how permitting clarity Unlocke's capital Pillar two building capacity
(03:11):
terminals now underway. Multiple large USLNG terminals or expansions are
under construction. I should also mention that the Department of
Transportations Maritime Administration, along with the United States Coast Guard,
plays central roles in conducting the environmental studies for these projects,
and that includes phase one of Port Arthur LNG, which
(03:32):
is moving forward with commercial operations targeted for later this decade.
We also see the Rio Grande LNG Phase one in Brownsville.
Three trains are under construction, with additional phases and commercialization
and development. Golden Pass LNG was delayed by contractor challenges,
but first exports may slip toward twenty twenty six, but
this is a cautionary reminder that execution risk is real
(03:55):
even when policy is favorable. Finally, Schneer is preserving additional
Corpus Christy Sabine capacity market guidance further points to expansion
through mid depth CAID. Pillar number three gas for the
grid meeting AI demand, EIA and industry analysis indicate the
data center electricity consumption is rising quickly, reshaping local forecasts
(04:18):
twenty thirty and beyond. While efficiency gains help, total demand
still grows and that pushes grid operators towards dispatchable power gas,
nuclear hydro. Because reliability events are expensive and politically salient,
expect support for modern CCGTS, fast start, aero, derivative peakers,
(04:41):
and pipeline expansion to serve load pockets near data center clusters.
Pillar four is export power energy diplomacy via LNG USLNG
has proven its strategic value contracts indexing to Henry hobb
or hydrid formulas have offered price and supply diversification to
(05:01):
Europe and Asia. The policy through line is this accelerate
long dated off take, promote open investment, and maintain sanctions
pressure on maligne actors while using LNG as a stabilizer.
The CP two fit underscores buyer confidence at US policy
is once again predictable. Pillar five permitting reform continuity offshore
(05:26):
natural gas relies on streamline federal permitting from first certificates,
Core four or four approvals, coordinated NEAT studies with DHS
and DOT. The strategic objective is consistent deadlines, predictable documentation,
and litigation risk management. This continuity allows midstream and power
(05:49):
developers to price risk and proceed, So listeners often ask
how much l G can the US really add this cycle,
and the answer depends on construction schedules, commissioning risk, and financing.
Let's throw out a few markers. The existing base as
of twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five includes Sabine Pass,
(06:11):
Corpus Christi Camera and Freeport Cove Point and Calxhushu Point Pass,
which is not easy to say. EIA's official liquefication capacity
tables and today in Energy notes show that the system's
steady expansion is continuing with uncertainty, specifically around Golden Pass
(06:34):
and Phase two of Plaque minds timing under construction, Port
Arthur Phase one, Rio Grand Phase one. These are additional
core editions that are likely to shape balances during the
second half of the decade, assuming typical commissioning curves. There's
certainly some potential upside from CP two's phase one engineers
(06:57):
incremental expansions which could add meaningful output in the late
twenty twenty window, but remember execution discipline and availability still governed.
Execution watch list Golden Pass delays rooted in EPC contractor
issues illustrate how single point constraints can ripple into the
(07:19):
global balance. The bottom line is that the US will
remain a swing supplier of lergy growth this decade, but
the pace is a function of policy stability and construction reality.
There's another saying out there, you can't burn gas that
you can't deliver. Three threads matter Number one pipelines and compression.
(07:41):
Incremental pipeline capacity, loopings, de bottlenecking and compression add ons
are essential to move marcellus utica and permium molecules to market.
Most of these projects rise or fall on permitting timelines
and landowner engagement. When right sized, expansions can be low
profile but high impact measured in a few hundred million
(08:04):
cubic feet per day that keep the region's spark spread
under control in summer and winter peaks. The second thread
is new gas fire generation. The data center boom is
changing the math. Developers are pairing ccgts with on site
or near on site data center clusters to ensure power
(08:24):
availability and latency. Regional planning organizations will need to reconcile
resource adequacy with emission constraints, and states will confront trade
offs between price stability and tight carbon markets. For near
term reliability, gas units often offer the quickest permitting, OEM
(08:46):
supply chains and system integration better understood than new nuclear
or long lead transmission projects. That said, the third thread
is the state federal interl Even with federal reforms, state
citing for plants and intrastate pipes can delay schedules. Expect
(09:08):
new federal policies to encourage cooperative federalism, expedited reviews where
states opt in, and tighter shot clocks where federal agencies
are lead. The goal is not to sideline states, but
to reduce duplicative processes that don't change environmental outcomes. Critics
often frame gas expansion is incompatible with climate goals, pointing
(09:32):
to methane short term warming potential. But the policy response
is measurement plus mitigation. We say measurement that wider deployment
of continuous monitoring, aerial surveys and satellite verification reduces uncertainty
and creates verifiable methane baselines. LDR programs, plunge your lifts,
(09:54):
dry seal compressors, and improve pneumatics all cut emission intensity
at a reasonable cost. This mitigation is important, especially when
compared to system wide reliability failures. Competitiveness us L andng's
full cycle emissions can be competitive with coal to gas
(10:15):
switching abroad, particularly when paired with efficiency improvements and methane controls.
Buyers increasingly write environmental attributes into spas US sellers can
respond with certified gas and transparent reporting. In short, methane
debatement is a feature, not a bug, of a modern
(10:36):
gas strategy, and it strengthens, not weakens the export case.
A quick note about Alaska LNG. Its strategic logic is
two full first shorter Pacific roots to Northeast Asia and
second supplied diversification that reduces Gulf Coast hurricane risk concentration.
(10:57):
But Alaska faces cost in financing hurles that make timing uncertain.
If policy clarity, long term Asian off take and concessional
infrastructure financing a line Alaska becomes a real option late
this decade. If not, Gulf Coast projects will continue to
set the tempo. Even favorable policy can be undone by
(11:21):
practical constraints. However, skilled labor availability, large bore valves, cryogenic
heat exchangers, any of these can elongate critical paths. Golden
Pass is a case studying this. Lawsuits and reopen records
or expand scope beyond statutory requirements can add years. Litigation
(11:43):
and permitting drift or reel. Consistent NEPA time lines and
disciplined record building do matter. Market cycles do also. Mild
winners and Asian demand shocks can soften prices and slow fits. Conversely,
European storage draw or unplanned outages will tighten balances and
(12:04):
pull additional US cargoes. And finally, it's all about grid integration.
Data center growth if not matched with dispatchable resources and transmission,
can trigger regional price spikes and reliability events. Utilities are
already flagging that risk. Finally, let's define what success looks
(12:28):
like in concrete terms. First, DOE regular order restored, second
on time commissioning, third pipeline and power plant permits, fourth
methane management, and five allied energy security. If we hit
those marks, natural gas policy won't be a culture war,
(12:52):
It'll be an economic development Plan and a national security strategy.
To summarize thanks rising, especially from AI driven data centers.
Keeping the grid affordable and sustainable requires adequate base load
and dispatchable power and gas is the proven near term option.
(13:13):
Second policy is shifted to support energy growth by restoring DOE,
permitting regular order, and aligning with FIRK processes. Third, projects
are moving, though executional risk remains. Multiple facilities have been cleared,
are under construction, or even have been received their licenses. Fourth,
(13:37):
emission's credibility is compatible with growth via methane measurement and mitigation.
And last, the US can strengthen allies and anchor global
energy security by remaining the world's reliable swing LNG producer.
You've been listening to Charged Conversations Joe Strecker Production, I'm
your host Brigham account. Feel free to drop us a
(13:59):
line over at Charged Conversations at bamacown dot com. If
you like what you've been listening to, hit that subscribe button.
I'll see you next time on another episode of Charged Conversations.
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