January 16, 2025 • 9 mins
We continue with our ongoing coverage of the HMPV outbreak situation in China, we discuss China's new loan rate, & Rubio talks China during his confirmation hearing.
China Update provides listeners with the most up to date political, economic, and geostrategic analysis on China - so that you are on top of the world's number 2 economy. These podcasts are based on hundreds of articles, think tank reports, government statements and other resources in English and Chinese every week. The views and analysis are all my own and I produce the podcasts.
My Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/chinaupdate
Disclaimer: China Update is not a financial advisory channel. While I take great care in researching everything discussed in these podcasts, nothing I say should be taken as investment advice. Please speak to a professional before making any investment decisions. #China
China Update provides listeners with the most up to date political, economic, and geostrategic analysis on China - so that you are on top of the world's number 2 economy. These podcasts are based on hundreds of articles, think tank reports, government statements and other resources in English and Chinese every week. The views and analysis are all my own and I produce the podcasts.
My Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/chinaupdate
Disclaimer: China Update is not a financial advisory channel. While I take great care in researching everything discussed in these podcasts, nothing I say should be taken as investment advice. Please speak to a professional before making any investment decisions. #China
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Happy Thursday, everybody. Welcome to another episode of China Update,
where I provide you with the most up to date political, economic,
and geostrategic analysis on the world's number two economy. My
name is Tony. Let's jump in and first up, we
continue with our ongoing coverage of the HMPV outbreak situation
in China, which we have been following for the past
few weeks. Reports of rising cases of a flu like
(00:22):
illness in China, where COVID nineteen was first discovered five
years ago, has sparked international concerns about the potential for
another worldwide pandemic. However, despite spreading numbers in China, as
we have stressed on this channel during this coverage, so
far to date, there has been no solid evidence to
suggest that the world is facing another global health emergency,
though international health experts are watching this situation closely. HMPV
(00:47):
is a common virus that has been around since at
least two thousand and one. Children under five, particularly infants,
and adults over sixty five, especially those with health problems,
can sometimes become seriously ill from the virus. However, for
most other people, the symptoms are generally mild. Yesterday, China
said cases of HMPV had declined among residents in its
(01:08):
northern provinces. However, some health experts are slow to trust
statements from Beijing and are calling for more transparency as
risks remain. Doctor Homeschung, a research fellow emeritus at the
Institute of Biomedical Sciences in Taipei, in a statement this
week express quote, international scholars are calling on China to
disclose pathogen information and conduct genetic research to confirm that
(01:32):
it is not a new virus. Even if it is
an old virus, it could still be a new variant
end quote. I have been in almost daily communication with
over a dozen contacts in hospitals across the country, and
I've made personal visits to hospitals myself within China. Though
hospitals are seeing above average numbers of patients with flu symptoms,
(01:52):
there still is no evidence of a widespread overwhelmed state.
Early reports of such a situation appear to be exaggerated. Nevertheless,
we continue to watch the situation closely. Now. While this
current outbreak appears to be less serious than initially feared,
there is another situation we need to cover which appears
to be much worse than originally imagined. In a new
(02:13):
paper published yesterday in Nature by in Shanghai based scientists
and medical experts called resurgence of common respiratory viruses and
Mycoplasma pneumonier after ending the zero COVID policy in Shanghai.
The authors argued that China's strict zero COVID policies maintained
for nearly three years, significantly impacted the circulation of respiratory pathogens. However,
(02:34):
with the easing of these measures in late twenty twenty two,
a resurgence of respiratory viruses and mycoplasma pneumonier has been observed,
particularly among children in Shanghai. A study conducted from January
twenty twenty two through December twenty twenty three enrolled eight thousand,
five hundred and fifty children hospitalized with acute respiratory infections.
(02:55):
The researchers detected nine common respiratory viruses and two atypical
back to time terrier, revealing significant changes post policy shift.
In twenty twenty three, Micoplasma pneumonier became the dominant pathogen
thirty eight point eight percent, overtaking rhinovirus fourteen point two percent,
and twenty twenty two, tection rates increased substantially seventy two
(03:15):
point nine percent versus forty one point eight percent, with
a notable rise in mixed infections twenty eight point nine
percent versus twenty three point eight percent. Interestingly, the report
found that respiratory sensational virus exhibited an out of season
epidemic in spring and summer of twenty twenty three. The
report underscored the urgent need for enhance public health strategies
to manage involving respiratory pathogen outbreaks in the post pandemic
(03:39):
era in China one in quote, China is now facing
multiple respiratory pathogen epidemics with changing seasonality, altered age distribution,
and increasing mixed infection rates. In quote like I said,
we will continue to follow the situation closely. Make sure
you'll subscribe so you can receive updates. As they released EXTAMP,
(04:01):
we moved to the Chinese economy. New loans issued by
Chinese banks dropped for the first time in thirteen years
in twenty twenty four, reflecting tempered demand for financing in
an economy grappling with deflation and a struggling housing market.
According to the People's Bank of China. Financial institutions issued
eighteen point zero nine trillion yen two point zero four
seven trillion US dollars in new loans last year, down
(04:22):
from twenty twenty three, while aggregate financing grew at its
slowest pace since twenty twenty one. The decline highlights subdued
borrowing from households in businesses. Despite Beijing's recent efforts to
stimulate the economy, medium to long term household loans, a
key measure of mortgage activity, fell to two point two
five trillion YAN, marking their lowest level in over a decade.
(04:44):
Short term loans to residents, often used for small business
investments or consumption, dropped to four hundred and seventy three
billion yen, the weakest since two thousand and eight. Corporate
borrowing also lagged, with medium to long term business loans
declining to ten point one trillion yen from five thirteen
point six TRILLIONIAN in twenty twenty three. While December showed
signs of recovery, with aggregate financing climbing by two point
(05:07):
eight six TRILLIONIAN and new loans heading their highest than
three months, analysts still remain cautious Japan. Singh, a senior
strategist at A and Z Bank, in a note, explains, quote,
demand rebounded in December supported by huge government financing. The
worst time of credit has passed in quote. So, of course,
(05:28):
even if the December numbers look good, if this is
being driven by government financing, it is not exactly a
healthy reflection of the situation. As regular viewers, no, policymakers
face the challenge of spurring growth while managing risks of
the currency and potential capital outflows. The government has stepped
up bond issuance and pledged measures like interest rate cuts
(05:50):
to bolster lending. However, weak non government financing and persistent
deflation underscore the need for stronger stimulus. With trade tensions
and domestic demand concerns looming, China's recovery trajectory remains uncertain.
Economists stress that assertive fiscal and monetary policies will be
vital to support growth and counteract external shocks, including potential
(06:12):
tariff hikes from the United States. And speaking of the
United States, next up, we move through US China developments,
but just quickly. If you're getting some value from today's
episode of China Update, it's a tremendous help if you
hit the like button, liking, sharing, and subscribing as a
huge help for the channel. This is our one man
band for the support for the algorithm from you all
as a tremendous help. Patren and buymea coffee. Links are
(06:34):
also in the description for those who'd like to give
a tip and help keep the channel financially sustainable. Thank
you so much, Let's continue. Florida's Senator Marco Rubio delivered
a sharp critique of China during his confirmation hearing for
Secretary of State, framing the nation as a grave threat
to American prosperity and remarks to the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee on Wednesday Yesterday, Rubio accused Beijing of exploiting the
(06:58):
global system for its benefit wile ignoring its responsibilities. Quote.
We welcome the Chinese Communist Party into this global order
end quote, Rubio testified, adding quote, and they took advantage
of all its benefits, but they ignored all its obligations
and responsibilities, and said they have lied, cheated, hacked, and
stolen their way to global superpower status at our expense
(07:20):
in quote. Rubio's remarks underscored his long standing reputation as
a China Hawk and set the tone for an administration
likely to adopt a more confrontational stance toward Beijing. His
pointed rhetoric aligance with President elect Donald Trump's promises to
impose major tariffs on China and address trade and balances.
Rubio warned that without swift changes to the US foreign policy,
(07:42):
the nation risks becoming dependent on China for critical needs,
expressing quote, if we don't change course, we are going
to live in a world where much of what matters
to us on a daily basis, from our security to
our health, will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow
us to have it or not. In outlining his vision
for the State Department, Rubio emphasized a return to prioritizing
(08:05):
America's core national interests. Quote. Every dollar we spend, every
program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be
justified with the answer to three simple questions. Does it
make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it
make America more prosperous? End quote. Rubio's focus on China
also extended to its economic practices, accusing Beijing of intellectual
(08:27):
property theft, cyber attacks, and unfair trade practices that have
undermined American interests and industries. His call for decisive action
reflected a broader critique of globalism, which he argued has
allowed adversaries like China to weaponize international systems against the
United States. While Rubio's comments hinted at potential early clashes
(08:47):
with Beijing, he tempered his assertiveness with a broader acknowledgment
of America's responsibilities on the world stage. Quote placing our
core national interests above all else is not isolationism end quote,
he said. Add what good to our allies as America
if it is not strong it confirmed. Rubio is expected
to play a key role in shaping US foreign policy,
(09:09):
but his influence may be tempered by Trump's hands on
approach to global diplomacy. Despite this, Rubio's remarks signal that
the new administration will pursue a tough America First strategy
in addressing the challenges posed by China. Okay, that is
to day's episode of China Update. Thank you so much
everybody for watching. Have a good Thursday, and I will
(09:31):
see you all tomorrow.
Happy Thursday, everybody. Welcome to another episode of China Update,
where I provide you with the most up to date political, economic,
and geostrategic analysis on the world's number two economy. My
name is Tony. Let's jump in and first up, we
continue with our ongoing coverage of the HMPV outbreak situation
in China, which we have been following for the past
few weeks. Reports of rising cases of a flu like
(00:22):
illness in China, where COVID nineteen was first discovered five
years ago, has sparked international concerns about the potential for
another worldwide pandemic. However, despite spreading numbers in China, as
we have stressed on this channel during this coverage, so
far to date, there has been no solid evidence to
suggest that the world is facing another global health emergency,
though international health experts are watching this situation closely. HMPV
(00:47):
is a common virus that has been around since at
least two thousand and one. Children under five, particularly infants,
and adults over sixty five, especially those with health problems,
can sometimes become seriously ill from the virus. However, for
most other people, the symptoms are generally mild. Yesterday, China
said cases of HMPV had declined among residents in its
(01:08):
northern provinces. However, some health experts are slow to trust
statements from Beijing and are calling for more transparency as
risks remain. Doctor Homeschung, a research fellow emeritus at the
Institute of Biomedical Sciences in Taipei, in a statement this
week express quote, international scholars are calling on China to
disclose pathogen information and conduct genetic research to confirm that
(01:32):
it is not a new virus. Even if it is
an old virus, it could still be a new variant
end quote. I have been in almost daily communication with
over a dozen contacts in hospitals across the country, and
I've made personal visits to hospitals myself within China. Though
hospitals are seeing above average numbers of patients with flu symptoms,
(01:52):
there still is no evidence of a widespread overwhelmed state.
Early reports of such a situation appear to be exaggerated. Nevertheless,
we continue to watch the situation closely. Now. While this
current outbreak appears to be less serious than initially feared,
there is another situation we need to cover which appears
to be much worse than originally imagined. In a new
(02:13):
paper published yesterday in Nature by in Shanghai based scientists
and medical experts called resurgence of common respiratory viruses and
Mycoplasma pneumonier after ending the zero COVID policy in Shanghai.
The authors argued that China's strict zero COVID policies maintained
for nearly three years, significantly impacted the circulation of respiratory pathogens. However,
(02:34):
with the easing of these measures in late twenty twenty two,
a resurgence of respiratory viruses and mycoplasma pneumonier has been observed,
particularly among children in Shanghai. A study conducted from January
twenty twenty two through December twenty twenty three enrolled eight thousand,
five hundred and fifty children hospitalized with acute respiratory infections.
(02:55):
The researchers detected nine common respiratory viruses and two atypical
back to time terrier, revealing significant changes post policy shift.
In twenty twenty three, Micoplasma pneumonier became the dominant pathogen
thirty eight point eight percent, overtaking rhinovirus fourteen point two percent,
and twenty twenty two, tection rates increased substantially seventy two
(03:15):
point nine percent versus forty one point eight percent, with
a notable rise in mixed infections twenty eight point nine
percent versus twenty three point eight percent. Interestingly, the report
found that respiratory sensational virus exhibited an out of season
epidemic in spring and summer of twenty twenty three. The
report underscored the urgent need for enhance public health strategies
to manage involving respiratory pathogen outbreaks in the post pandemic
(03:39):
era in China one in quote, China is now facing
multiple respiratory pathogen epidemics with changing seasonality, altered age distribution,
and increasing mixed infection rates. In quote like I said,
we will continue to follow the situation closely. Make sure
you'll subscribe so you can receive updates. As they released EXTAMP,
(04:01):
we moved to the Chinese economy. New loans issued by
Chinese banks dropped for the first time in thirteen years
in twenty twenty four, reflecting tempered demand for financing in
an economy grappling with deflation and a struggling housing market.
According to the People's Bank of China. Financial institutions issued
eighteen point zero nine trillion yen two point zero four
seven trillion US dollars in new loans last year, down
(04:22):
from twenty twenty three, while aggregate financing grew at its
slowest pace since twenty twenty one. The decline highlights subdued
borrowing from households in businesses. Despite Beijing's recent efforts to
stimulate the economy, medium to long term household loans, a
key measure of mortgage activity, fell to two point two
five trillion YAN, marking their lowest level in over a decade.
(04:44):
Short term loans to residents, often used for small business
investments or consumption, dropped to four hundred and seventy three
billion yen, the weakest since two thousand and eight. Corporate
borrowing also lagged, with medium to long term business loans
declining to ten point one trillion yen from five thirteen
point six TRILLIONIAN in twenty twenty three. While December showed
signs of recovery, with aggregate financing climbing by two point
(05:07):
eight six TRILLIONIAN and new loans heading their highest than
three months, analysts still remain cautious Japan. Singh, a senior
strategist at A and Z Bank, in a note, explains, quote,
demand rebounded in December supported by huge government financing. The
worst time of credit has passed in quote. So, of course,
(05:28):
even if the December numbers look good, if this is
being driven by government financing, it is not exactly a
healthy reflection of the situation. As regular viewers, no, policymakers
face the challenge of spurring growth while managing risks of
the currency and potential capital outflows. The government has stepped
up bond issuance and pledged measures like interest rate cuts
(05:50):
to bolster lending. However, weak non government financing and persistent
deflation underscore the need for stronger stimulus. With trade tensions
and domestic demand concerns looming, China's recovery trajectory remains uncertain.
Economists stress that assertive fiscal and monetary policies will be
vital to support growth and counteract external shocks, including potential
(06:12):
tariff hikes from the United States. And speaking of the
United States, next up, we move through US China developments,
but just quickly. If you're getting some value from today's
episode of China Update, it's a tremendous help if you
hit the like button, liking, sharing, and subscribing as a
huge help for the channel. This is our one man
band for the support for the algorithm from you all
as a tremendous help. Patren and buymea coffee. Links are
(06:34):
also in the description for those who'd like to give
a tip and help keep the channel financially sustainable. Thank
you so much, Let's continue. Florida's Senator Marco Rubio delivered
a sharp critique of China during his confirmation hearing for
Secretary of State, framing the nation as a grave threat
to American prosperity and remarks to the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee on Wednesday Yesterday, Rubio accused Beijing of exploiting the
(06:58):
global system for its benefit wile ignoring its responsibilities. Quote.
We welcome the Chinese Communist Party into this global order
end quote, Rubio testified, adding quote, and they took advantage
of all its benefits, but they ignored all its obligations
and responsibilities, and said they have lied, cheated, hacked, and
stolen their way to global superpower status at our expense
(07:20):
in quote. Rubio's remarks underscored his long standing reputation as
a China Hawk and set the tone for an administration
likely to adopt a more confrontational stance toward Beijing. His
pointed rhetoric aligance with President elect Donald Trump's promises to
impose major tariffs on China and address trade and balances.
Rubio warned that without swift changes to the US foreign policy,
(07:42):
the nation risks becoming dependent on China for critical needs,
expressing quote, if we don't change course, we are going
to live in a world where much of what matters
to us on a daily basis, from our security to
our health, will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow
us to have it or not. In outlining his vision
for the State Department, Rubio emphasized a return to prioritizing
(08:05):
America's core national interests. Quote. Every dollar we spend, every
program we fund, and every policy we pursue must be
justified with the answer to three simple questions. Does it
make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Does it
make America more prosperous? End quote. Rubio's focus on China
also extended to its economic practices, accusing Beijing of intellectual
(08:27):
property theft, cyber attacks, and unfair trade practices that have
undermined American interests and industries. His call for decisive action
reflected a broader critique of globalism, which he argued has
allowed adversaries like China to weaponize international systems against the
United States. While Rubio's comments hinted at potential early clashes
(08:47):
with Beijing, he tempered his assertiveness with a broader acknowledgment
of America's responsibilities on the world stage. Quote placing our
core national interests above all else is not isolationism end quote,
he said. Add what good to our allies as America
if it is not strong it confirmed. Rubio is expected
to play a key role in shaping US foreign policy,
(09:09):
but his influence may be tempered by Trump's hands on
approach to global diplomacy. Despite this, Rubio's remarks signal that
the new administration will pursue a tough America First strategy
in addressing the challenges posed by China. Okay, that is
to day's episode of China Update. Thank you so much
everybody for watching. Have a good Thursday, and I will
(09:31):
see you all tomorrow.
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