Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC three fifteen that goes down Saturday from Montreal,
headlined by Beallel Muhammad defending his UFC wulchaweight title against
Jack Della Maddalena striker versus grappler matchup. There should be
an interesting one. I know Blal is not the most
(00:23):
exciting champion to fins, to say the least, but I
do think that this one actually does have some excitement potential.
If Jack wins, it's going to because he kept it
on the feet and is able to outstrike Blal either
over the duration or more likely actually stops him. If
Blal wins because he gets takedowns, and we might actually
see some fun grappling because Jack is flawed enough on
(00:45):
the ground that Bilall could actually have some real success there.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
So could actually be a fun fight.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Depends obviously who wins and where it takes place, but
I do actually think we could see even some fun
grappling there. Aside from that, the rest of the card
I'll be breaking down exclusively over on patreon dot com
Slash Furies fight picks. Of course, not actually that greatest
stuff Valentina Chevchenko in the comin event. Okay, Joseyaldo. They
(01:12):
continue to mismanage his late career here. Why are we
having him fight guys like Sahabi. He should be in
like Legends type matchups facing guys like Dominant Cruz, who
I know obviously is retired now, but he.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Should have been in fights like that. Don't know really
what they're doing here with him.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Alexa Grosso against Natalia Silva whatever, two femalemma fights on
one main card. That's could be rough. I've been while
Saint Denivus Joe Alvarez. That was gonna be fun, but
then that just got scrapped earlier today I'm recording this fight.
I'm recording this podcast on Saturday, the Saturday before the cards,
so a full seven days beforehand. So we'll see if
(01:52):
they keep him still on the card or if they
just replace that a fight altogether. So eh, not exactly
in love with this as far as paype reviews ago,
but there are at least some good fights on here,
of course. Most importantly of all, hopefully it is a
profitable event for bets. Official bets for the Patreon have
been on absolute fire over the last couple of months,
(02:14):
the last week of a results. I actually don't know
yet because I'm recording this, but we still have bets pending.
This is the week of UFC des Moines. I'm recording
this a full week before UFC three fifteen, getting this
out early, so hopefully the UFC des Moin week ends
up being the eighth straight winning week in a row.
But either way, been on an absolute tear with the
(02:36):
official bets, all third party tracked and verified. Up around
three dozen units over the last couple of months. As
I mentioned, seven possibly eight straight winning weeks in a row.
Hopefully UFC three to fifteen will make that nine winning
weeks in a row. Did have a big winning year
last year, of course, up hundreds of units long term
over several years, all third party tracked and verified.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Again.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
You can check out the records and more over it
Patreon dot com slash Furies fight picks. You can also
get all of the official bets for that already have
some up right now for the card. We usually get
them posted out pretty early, about a week in advance.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Nice to be able to beat the line moves and
all that.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
So check out, of course again Patreon dot com Slash
Furies Fight picks all throughout fight week to get all
of our official bets, and of course a lot more
content than just this main event podcast. I do break
down a bunch of other fights there in podcasts for
we have a variety of written contents and video content
to post fight shows on top of that, so a
bunch more content than just this one main event breakdown
(03:36):
each week is available over on the Patreon, most importantly
of course, including the official bets, so check it all
out Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. With that acid,
let's get to this main event breakdown here again. Balal
Mohammed defending as welchweight title against Jack Della Maddalena. As
for the betting odds, of course, Bellal being the champion,
(03:58):
you do have him as the favorite. You don't usually
have the champion being an underdog, but as far as
champions go, not a particularly large favorite here minus two
thirty so solid one. But you know a lot of times,
especially after they've racked up a defense, especially after they're
going against a not necessarily unproven fighter, but a more
one dimensional fighter in a guy like Jack, you'd usually
(04:22):
see them being a bigger favorite. However, people just really
do not like Ballall, and there's a variety of reasons
for that, but most importantly, people just do not find
him exciting. And when people find a fighter boring, they
oftentimes underrate their skills, and I definitely think that has
been the case with Ballall. I do think he is
a very good and talented fighter, But that being said,
(04:43):
I do see where people are coming from with He's
just not the most exciting fighter in terms of not
just in the cage, but also there are certain fighters
who are not actually that great in terms of their fights,
but they get you excited from the build up. I
always talk about this with John Jones. His fights, for
the most part are actually not very exciting.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Not a lot happens.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
It's a lot of neutralizing until his opponent tires out
and then he turns it on in the last round
or two. A lot of his fights not very exciting stuff.
There's not many of his fights and you're like, man,
I want to go and turn on the classics.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Let's boot up some.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Old, crazy fun knockouts and maybe it's a decision, but
it was super fun back and forth, Like maybe John
Jones versus Alexander Gusts in the first time.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Okay, I'll give you that. Not many John Jones.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Fights that you can think of as like man, super
exciting stuff, and so his fights was about the drama
and the storylines of the narratives outside the cage, not
so much what he did inside of it, and so
belaal not particularly exciting inside of it, but also not
really exciting at all outside.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
In fact, I'd say even less exciting.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
So I understand why people don't really get excited for him.
You're not looking for you, o man, we're gonna have
some great knockout by him or some dominant ground appling performance,
so you don't really get that. And there's also not
really much intrigue in terms of some sort of drama
or narrative or storyline going into it. So I think
he gets overly hated on, but I do kind of
understand where people are coming from. I do still think
(06:14):
he's very talented, very well rounded. He's obviously still improved
as well, and I think he's a good fighter who
definitely gets underrated because people just are so uninterested in him.
On the flip side, with Jack, I have been very
high on his game and his overall skill set basically
every fight of his bed HM. Multiple times I have
(06:37):
very much so gone on the record and said he
is one of the legit best boxers in the UFC
right now. You look at his flurries, his combinations in
the pocket, the accuracy, the variety of punches that he
will throw, the way he'll double up on the same side,
the way he'll sneak in little shovel upper cuts and hooks.
He is one of the best pressure boxers, not just
(06:59):
now in the UFC, but honestly ever, he is truly
great at that.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
The problem is.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Not so much that he's great at beyond that. Defensively
not great. He's definitely significantly better when he is pressuring
and letting off those combinations, doesn't do nearly as good
when he is forced to back up. His grappling definitely
leaves a lot to be desired. Wrestling isn't terrible, but
it's definitely not on the strong side, and his overall
(07:27):
grappling the same could be said about that. Cardio seems
to be solid, but we really haven't seen him pushed
in multiple fights. We've seen him pushed obviously, like the
Gilbert Burns fight. He didn't look great there, and he
was pushed a bit, did kind of pass some tests there,
but it was still a performance that makes me go man,
if Gilbert Burns late in his career looked like that
against him, makes you think Bala Mohammed's gonna have some
(07:50):
real success against him as well. So if this fight
is the just spent in the striking oh Man, Blall's
in trouble. He has some okay counters at times, but
not really any real power. Not a good pressure striker
backs up a lot on the feet, will allow Jack
to pressure him and unload the combinations against the fence
(08:10):
like oh Man, especially early while Jack is fresh. If
this is striking, it's trouble for Blall. However, Ballall is
not going to try to strike with this man. He
is going to try to take him down early and often,
and he's taken down better wrestlers, better takedown defenders than
Jack has shown to be so far. So I would
(08:31):
think that Blall, with a diligent wrestling based game plan,
probably is able to get it and avoid the striking,
probably is able to keep him on the ground and
make him work enough to eventually wear him out down
the stretch. I don't know if we'll get a decision,
but I feel like it will probably progressively get more
in the more one sided in the favor of Blall.
I don't know if it'll be super dominant overall, but
(08:52):
I think there's gonna be a heavy dose of takedowns
here where you also have to remember, what did I
just mention about Jack's game? Did I say he's one
of the best range strikers. Did they say he's one
of the best kickboxers. Did they say he's one of
the best distance managers. No, I said he's one of
the best combination pocket punchers.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Well, why do we not see a lot of.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Great combination pocket punchers at MMA who going to reach
great heights?
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I don't know. Maybe because there's this thing called grappling,
and when you are a combination pocket puncher, you are
wide open to getting taken down or clinched. There's a
reason why when you look at the way boxers box
and then you see a quote unquote boxer and MMA,
they look very different. Boxers will stand basically like head
(09:40):
to head, like head butting against each other, sitting in
the phone booth, trading hooks, trading body shots because there's
no fear of having to get their hips out or
move their feet to avoid a takedown, so they can
just sit there, whereas if it was a street fight
or an MMA fight, they'd get taken down in a
heartbeat without any effort. Basically, well, he's very different, and
(10:01):
in order to combination box in the pocket like Jack does,
you buy nature kind of automatically have to leave yourself
up open for the takedown. And one of the takedowns
that Balala is good at is getting in close in
either the clinch or the pocket and then working from
there and scooping his opponent's legs out, working to a
(10:23):
single or a double leg. Very good at did that
against Leon Edwards. Now obviously Leon did back against the
fence which made it easier at times. Jack is obviously
going to be trying to pressure, but we still have
seen him get backed up before.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
And that's obviously what Blal is going to be trying
to do here.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
So the way I look at this fight, when I
go okay, let's look at their actual paths to victory
and how they would go along that path. If you're Jack,
he's probably not just going to like lunge in with
one big overhand and one hit or quitter Blal, I
mean Tubby fair Vin Sente Luke did do that. He
just hit him with a fire co correctly was a
(10:59):
left hook right just kind of looped it over and
basically just flatlined Blall like he just crumpled. It was
kind of weird to see Blog go down like that.
We've seen him get rocked before, but he usually has
a better shit than he showed there. But I guess
it's possible. Obviously Jack can do that, but unlikely. More
likely his path to victory would be again getting into
(11:19):
the pocket and unloading flurries. So let's just say it like,
let's imagine that happening. The fight starts, the round starts
number one. They slowly move in, inching to range. Ballall's
inching into range because he wants to take down or
the clinch. Jack's inching into range because he wants a
combination box. They get into range, Jack starts unloading with
(11:39):
a jab and then a hook.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
What is Blaal doing?
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Is he standing there and trying to bob and weave
with that movement? No, is he standing there doing like
the ear muffs putting his hands up to block and parry. No,
is he just gonna circle completely out of distance? Maybe
some of the time, But what's he most likely going
to do as soon as Jack plants his feet to
combo box, shoot a takedown, or try to tie him
(12:05):
up in the clinch. And so basically, in order for
Bolill to have success, blot to have success, he has
to either get into clinches or get into the pocket
to shoot takedowns. Well, how does Jack have success by
getting in close which will then allow Bolall to get
clinches or the takedowns. Like, in order for Jack to win,
(12:27):
he has to basically give Blaal his best chance to win.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
You see what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So that's what's tough about this for Jack, not to
say he can't get into the clinch or shoulse we
get into the pocket one time and land a combination
or land one big shot and rock ballall and then.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Follow up and ends up getting the finish.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
I'm not saying that's impossible, but what is most likely
here that he gets clinched or taken down also because
he has to be concerned about that, and especially if
it happens he actually gets taken down after he gets
into the pocket, he's going to be not necessarily gun shy,
but certainly more hesitant. As we saw against Gilbert Burns,
he did not let the combinations flow as much there,
(13:07):
and it also certainly helped that Burns actually gassed out himself.
That's what ultimately allowed Jack to win that fight. Probably
not gonna happen here with Bolal, who shown great cardio
and pace some of the best in the division. So
I've been a big you know, I don't want to
say fan of Jack, as I'm not a fan of
any fighters, but I've been certainly someone who has been
(13:27):
singing his praises more than a lot of other people.
But stylistically, man, I just think this is a really
bad stylistic matchup for him. And not to say it's unwinnable,
not to say that he doesn't have any advantages. He does,
particularly with the striking in the pocket, but overall he
has had a disadvantage in terms of the overall skill set,
(13:50):
the quality of competition that they've each faced where they've
proven their skill sets against them. Blaal's flaws have looked
bad against better fighters than Jack has faced. So while
Jack has also shown flaws. They've been against much worse
fighters than the ones who have looked good against Ballall
or exposed the areas of issue in his game. And
(14:10):
so maybe if Blall was facing the same fighters that
Jack was, he would not have shown any issues, maybe
would have steamrolled them. Whereas it's probably pretty safe to
say that if versus the level of competition Jack showed
certain flaws that he did against the quality competition that
Ballall showed, he'd also show them, if not to a
greater extent. So not to say that Resume and experiences
(14:33):
a b All end All, because if that was the case,
the older, more veteran fighter would always win every fight,
no prospect would ever make it an mma.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
But in this case we have.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Stylistically an advantageous matchup for Ballall. He's also much more
proven than Jack, and he's proven his skills versus a
much better level of competition as well. It's not just
that he's fought better competition and lost to them, he's
actually applied his skills and had success against better f
than Jack.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
So I think Jack is.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Not completely dead in the water here, but certainly has
an uphill battle against him that man I'd be great
obviously for him and in terms of the excitement as
a champion if he was able to find a way
to get the w here.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
But I'm just having a hard time envisioning it.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Not saying it's impossible, not saying this would be the
craziest upset ever. But I do think that balal Mohammad
deserves to be a decided favorite here, and so he
will be my official prediction. I will go with a decision.
But seeing Jack in a five rounder against the best
opponent of his career, maybe he ends up wilting down
the stretch and Balal actually gets a rare finish. But
(15:43):
if you look at his record, knockdowns, near finishes, near
submission attempts, actual finishes kind of rare in the case
of Blal. So I will go with the safe route
here much like how he fights, and go with balal
Mohammad by a decision. All right, that we'll do it
for this main event preview, But remember over on patreon
(16:05):
dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks, there is a bunch
more content for the card, including all sorts of different
written analysis, weigh in notes, pre fight breakdowns, staff picks, articles,
postfight podcasts, more, in depth, more fights covered on the
pre fight podcast as well a bunch of other content
over on the Patreon, so highly encourage you to check
(16:25):
it out. This is just a sliver of the weekly
content that we produce. Of course, most importantly over on
the Patreon are the official bets. Those have been on
absolute fire over the last couple of months, making around
three dozen units winning every week so far, all third
party tracked and verified as well. Obviously we've been tracking
much longer than eight weeks. We are on the profit
(16:46):
in twenty twenty five as a whole, obviously came off
of a big winning year last year, around seventy five
units in twenty twenty four, up hundreds of units long
term on the third party tracking, so fully verified and tracked,
no fudging these results, no padding records, only an average
bet size of around two units. A lot of people
on those sites, you know, ten units every play to
(17:07):
path the records. We don't do that trash because we
actually have real fundamentals where one unit should equal one
percent of your bankroll, and if you've betting ten units
every fight ten percent bankroll, that's incredibly irresponsible. So instead
of patting our records, we actually give proper unit structure,
which would only be again on average two percent bankroll
per play, which is very proper. So check it all
(17:30):
out again Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Other than that, i'll be out of here. Hopefully you
join us for that content over there.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Otherwise, until next time, I'm Luk a Fury and thank
you for listening
Greetings.
Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC three fifteen that goes down Saturday from Montreal,
headlined by Beallel Muhammad defending his UFC wulchaweight title against
Jack Della Maddalena striker versus grappler matchup. There should be
an interesting one. I know Blal is not the most
(00:23):
exciting champion to fins, to say the least, but I
do think that this one actually does have some excitement potential.
If Jack wins, it's going to because he kept it
on the feet and is able to outstrike Blal either
over the duration or more likely actually stops him. If
Blal wins because he gets takedowns, and we might actually
see some fun grappling because Jack is flawed enough on
(00:45):
the ground that Bilall could actually have some real success there.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
So could actually be a fun fight.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Depends obviously who wins and where it takes place, but
I do actually think we could see even some fun
grappling there. Aside from that, the rest of the card
I'll be breaking down exclusively over on patreon dot com
Slash Furies fight picks. Of course, not actually that greatest
stuff Valentina Chevchenko in the comin event. Okay, Joseyaldo. They
(01:12):
continue to mismanage his late career here. Why are we
having him fight guys like Sahabi. He should be in
like Legends type matchups facing guys like Dominant Cruz, who
I know obviously is retired now, but he.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Should have been in fights like that. Don't know really
what they're doing here with him.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Alexa Grosso against Natalia Silva whatever, two femalemma fights on
one main card. That's could be rough. I've been while
Saint Denivus Joe Alvarez. That was gonna be fun, but
then that just got scrapped earlier today I'm recording this fight.
I'm recording this podcast on Saturday, the Saturday before the cards,
so a full seven days beforehand. So we'll see if
(01:52):
they keep him still on the card or if they
just replace that a fight altogether. So eh, not exactly
in love with this as far as paype reviews ago,
but there are at least some good fights on here,
of course. Most importantly of all, hopefully it is a
profitable event for bets. Official bets for the Patreon have
been on absolute fire over the last couple of months,
(02:14):
the last week of a results. I actually don't know
yet because I'm recording this, but we still have bets pending.
This is the week of UFC des Moines. I'm recording
this a full week before UFC three fifteen, getting this
out early, so hopefully the UFC des Moin week ends
up being the eighth straight winning week in a row.
But either way, been on an absolute tear with the
(02:36):
official bets, all third party tracked and verified. Up around
three dozen units over the last couple of months. As
I mentioned, seven possibly eight straight winning weeks in a row.
Hopefully UFC three to fifteen will make that nine winning
weeks in a row. Did have a big winning year
last year, of course, up hundreds of units long term
over several years, all third party tracked and verified.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
Again.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
You can check out the records and more over it
Patreon dot com slash Furies fight picks. You can also
get all of the official bets for that already have
some up right now for the card. We usually get
them posted out pretty early, about a week in advance.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
Nice to be able to beat the line moves and
all that.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
So check out, of course again Patreon dot com Slash
Furies Fight picks all throughout fight week to get all
of our official bets, and of course a lot more
content than just this main event podcast. I do break
down a bunch of other fights there in podcasts for
we have a variety of written contents and video content
to post fight shows on top of that, so a
bunch more content than just this one main event breakdown
(03:36):
each week is available over on the Patreon, most importantly
of course, including the official bets, so check it all
out Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. With that acid,
let's get to this main event breakdown here again. Balal
Mohammed defending as welchweight title against Jack Della Maddalena. As
for the betting odds, of course, Bellal being the champion,
(03:58):
you do have him as the favorite. You don't usually
have the champion being an underdog, but as far as
champions go, not a particularly large favorite here minus two
thirty so solid one. But you know a lot of times,
especially after they've racked up a defense, especially after they're
going against a not necessarily unproven fighter, but a more
one dimensional fighter in a guy like Jack, you'd usually
(04:22):
see them being a bigger favorite. However, people just really
do not like Ballall, and there's a variety of reasons
for that, but most importantly, people just do not find
him exciting. And when people find a fighter boring, they
oftentimes underrate their skills, and I definitely think that has
been the case with Ballall. I do think he is
a very good and talented fighter, But that being said,
(04:43):
I do see where people are coming from with He's
just not the most exciting fighter in terms of not
just in the cage, but also there are certain fighters
who are not actually that great in terms of their fights,
but they get you excited from the build up. I
always talk about this with John Jones. His fights, for
the most part are actually not very exciting.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Not a lot happens.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
It's a lot of neutralizing until his opponent tires out
and then he turns it on in the last round
or two. A lot of his fights not very exciting stuff.
There's not many of his fights and you're like, man,
I want to go and turn on the classics.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
Let's boot up some.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
Old, crazy fun knockouts and maybe it's a decision, but
it was super fun back and forth, Like maybe John
Jones versus Alexander Gusts in the first time.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Okay, I'll give you that. Not many John Jones.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Fights that you can think of as like man, super
exciting stuff, and so his fights was about the drama
and the storylines of the narratives outside the cage, not
so much what he did inside of it, and so
belaal not particularly exciting inside of it, but also not
really exciting at all outside.
Speaker 1 (05:49):
In fact, I'd say even less exciting.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
So I understand why people don't really get excited for him.
You're not looking for you, o man, we're gonna have
some great knockout by him or some dominant ground appling performance,
so you don't really get that. And there's also not
really much intrigue in terms of some sort of drama
or narrative or storyline going into it. So I think
he gets overly hated on, but I do kind of
understand where people are coming from. I do still think
(06:14):
he's very talented, very well rounded. He's obviously still improved
as well, and I think he's a good fighter who
definitely gets underrated because people just are so uninterested in him.
On the flip side, with Jack, I have been very
high on his game and his overall skill set basically
every fight of his bed HM. Multiple times I have
(06:37):
very much so gone on the record and said he
is one of the legit best boxers in the UFC
right now. You look at his flurries, his combinations in
the pocket, the accuracy, the variety of punches that he
will throw, the way he'll double up on the same side,
the way he'll sneak in little shovel upper cuts and hooks.
He is one of the best pressure boxers, not just
(06:59):
now in the UFC, but honestly ever, he is truly
great at that.
Speaker 1 (07:04):
The problem is.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Not so much that he's great at beyond that. Defensively
not great. He's definitely significantly better when he is pressuring
and letting off those combinations, doesn't do nearly as good
when he is forced to back up. His grappling definitely
leaves a lot to be desired. Wrestling isn't terrible, but
it's definitely not on the strong side, and his overall
(07:27):
grappling the same could be said about that. Cardio seems
to be solid, but we really haven't seen him pushed
in multiple fights. We've seen him pushed obviously, like the
Gilbert Burns fight. He didn't look great there, and he
was pushed a bit, did kind of pass some tests there,
but it was still a performance that makes me go man,
if Gilbert Burns late in his career looked like that
against him, makes you think Bala Mohammed's gonna have some
(07:50):
real success against him as well. So if this fight
is the just spent in the striking oh Man, Blall's
in trouble. He has some okay counters at times, but
not really any real power. Not a good pressure striker
backs up a lot on the feet, will allow Jack
to pressure him and unload the combinations against the fence
(08:10):
like oh Man, especially early while Jack is fresh. If
this is striking, it's trouble for Blall. However, Ballall is
not going to try to strike with this man. He
is going to try to take him down early and often,
and he's taken down better wrestlers, better takedown defenders than
Jack has shown to be so far. So I would
(08:31):
think that Blall, with a diligent wrestling based game plan,
probably is able to get it and avoid the striking,
probably is able to keep him on the ground and
make him work enough to eventually wear him out down
the stretch. I don't know if we'll get a decision,
but I feel like it will probably progressively get more
in the more one sided in the favor of Blall.
I don't know if it'll be super dominant overall, but
(08:52):
I think there's gonna be a heavy dose of takedowns
here where you also have to remember, what did I
just mention about Jack's game? Did I say he's one
of the best range strikers. Did they say he's one
of the best kickboxers. Did they say he's one of
the best distance managers. No, I said he's one of
the best combination pocket punchers.
Speaker 1 (09:12):
Well, why do we not see a lot of.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Great combination pocket punchers at MMA who going to reach
great heights?
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Oh?
Speaker 2 (09:20):
I don't know. Maybe because there's this thing called grappling,
and when you are a combination pocket puncher, you are
wide open to getting taken down or clinched. There's a
reason why when you look at the way boxers box
and then you see a quote unquote boxer and MMA,
they look very different. Boxers will stand basically like head
(09:40):
to head, like head butting against each other, sitting in
the phone booth, trading hooks, trading body shots because there's
no fear of having to get their hips out or
move their feet to avoid a takedown, so they can
just sit there, whereas if it was a street fight
or an MMA fight, they'd get taken down in a
heartbeat without any effort. Basically, well, he's very different, and
(10:01):
in order to combination box in the pocket like Jack does,
you buy nature kind of automatically have to leave yourself
up open for the takedown. And one of the takedowns
that Balala is good at is getting in close in
either the clinch or the pocket and then working from
there and scooping his opponent's legs out, working to a
(10:23):
single or a double leg. Very good at did that
against Leon Edwards. Now obviously Leon did back against the
fence which made it easier at times. Jack is obviously
going to be trying to pressure, but we still have
seen him get backed up before.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
And that's obviously what Blal is going to be trying
to do here.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
So the way I look at this fight, when I
go okay, let's look at their actual paths to victory
and how they would go along that path. If you're Jack,
he's probably not just going to like lunge in with
one big overhand and one hit or quitter Blal, I
mean Tubby fair Vin Sente Luke did do that. He
just hit him with a fire co correctly was a
(10:59):
left hook right just kind of looped it over and
basically just flatlined Blall like he just crumpled. It was
kind of weird to see Blog go down like that.
We've seen him get rocked before, but he usually has
a better shit than he showed there. But I guess
it's possible. Obviously Jack can do that, but unlikely. More
likely his path to victory would be again getting into
(11:19):
the pocket and unloading flurries. So let's just say it like,
let's imagine that happening. The fight starts, the round starts
number one. They slowly move in, inching to range. Ballall's
inching into range because he wants to take down or
the clinch. Jack's inching into range because he wants a
combination box. They get into range, Jack starts unloading with
(11:39):
a jab and then a hook.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
What is Blaal doing?
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Is he standing there and trying to bob and weave
with that movement? No, is he standing there doing like
the ear muffs putting his hands up to block and parry. No,
is he just gonna circle completely out of distance? Maybe
some of the time, But what's he most likely going
to do as soon as Jack plants his feet to
combo box, shoot a takedown, or try to tie him
(12:05):
up in the clinch. And so basically, in order for
Bolill to have success, blot to have success, he has
to either get into clinches or get into the pocket
to shoot takedowns. Well, how does Jack have success by
getting in close which will then allow Bolall to get
clinches or the takedowns. Like, in order for Jack to win,
(12:27):
he has to basically give Blaal his best chance to win.
Speaker 1 (12:32):
You see what I'm saying.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
So that's what's tough about this for Jack, not to
say he can't get into the clinch or shoulse we
get into the pocket one time and land a combination
or land one big shot and rock ballall and then.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Follow up and ends up getting the finish.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
I'm not saying that's impossible, but what is most likely
here that he gets clinched or taken down also because
he has to be concerned about that, and especially if
it happens he actually gets taken down after he gets
into the pocket, he's going to be not necessarily gun shy,
but certainly more hesitant. As we saw against Gilbert Burns,
he did not let the combinations flow as much there,
(13:07):
and it also certainly helped that Burns actually gassed out himself.
That's what ultimately allowed Jack to win that fight. Probably
not gonna happen here with Bolal, who shown great cardio
and pace some of the best in the division. So
I've been a big you know, I don't want to
say fan of Jack, as I'm not a fan of
any fighters, but I've been certainly someone who has been
(13:27):
singing his praises more than a lot of other people.
But stylistically, man, I just think this is a really
bad stylistic matchup for him. And not to say it's unwinnable,
not to say that he doesn't have any advantages. He does,
particularly with the striking in the pocket, but overall he
has had a disadvantage in terms of the overall skill set,
(13:50):
the quality of competition that they've each faced where they've
proven their skill sets against them. Blaal's flaws have looked
bad against better fighters than Jack has faced. So while
Jack has also shown flaws. They've been against much worse
fighters than the ones who have looked good against Ballall
or exposed the areas of issue in his game. And
(14:10):
so maybe if Blall was facing the same fighters that
Jack was, he would not have shown any issues, maybe
would have steamrolled them. Whereas it's probably pretty safe to
say that if versus the level of competition Jack showed
certain flaws that he did against the quality competition that
Ballall showed, he'd also show them, if not to a
greater extent. So not to say that Resume and experiences
(14:33):
a b All end All, because if that was the case,
the older, more veteran fighter would always win every fight,
no prospect would ever make it an mma.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
But in this case we have.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Stylistically an advantageous matchup for Ballall. He's also much more
proven than Jack, and he's proven his skills versus a
much better level of competition as well. It's not just
that he's fought better competition and lost to them, he's
actually applied his skills and had success against better f
than Jack.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
So I think Jack is.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
Not completely dead in the water here, but certainly has
an uphill battle against him that man I'd be great
obviously for him and in terms of the excitement as
a champion if he was able to find a way
to get the w here.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
But I'm just having a hard time envisioning it.
Speaker 2 (15:22):
Not saying it's impossible, not saying this would be the
craziest upset ever. But I do think that balal Mohammad
deserves to be a decided favorite here, and so he
will be my official prediction. I will go with a decision.
But seeing Jack in a five rounder against the best
opponent of his career, maybe he ends up wilting down
the stretch and Balal actually gets a rare finish. But
(15:43):
if you look at his record, knockdowns, near finishes, near
submission attempts, actual finishes kind of rare in the case
of Blal. So I will go with the safe route
here much like how he fights, and go with balal
Mohammad by a decision. All right, that we'll do it
for this main event preview, But remember over on patreon
(16:05):
dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks, there is a bunch
more content for the card, including all sorts of different
written analysis, weigh in notes, pre fight breakdowns, staff picks, articles,
postfight podcasts, more, in depth, more fights covered on the
pre fight podcast as well a bunch of other content
over on the Patreon, so highly encourage you to check
(16:25):
it out. This is just a sliver of the weekly
content that we produce. Of course, most importantly over on
the Patreon are the official bets. Those have been on
absolute fire over the last couple of months, making around
three dozen units winning every week so far, all third
party tracked and verified as well. Obviously we've been tracking
much longer than eight weeks. We are on the profit
(16:46):
in twenty twenty five as a whole, obviously came off
of a big winning year last year, around seventy five
units in twenty twenty four, up hundreds of units long
term on the third party tracking, so fully verified and tracked,
no fudging these results, no padding records, only an average
bet size of around two units. A lot of people
on those sites, you know, ten units every play to
(17:07):
path the records. We don't do that trash because we
actually have real fundamentals where one unit should equal one
percent of your bankroll, and if you've betting ten units
every fight ten percent bankroll, that's incredibly irresponsible. So instead
of patting our records, we actually give proper unit structure,
which would only be again on average two percent bankroll
per play, which is very proper. So check it all
(17:30):
out again Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks.
Speaker 1 (17:34):
Other than that, i'll be out of here. Hopefully you
join us for that content over there.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
Otherwise, until next time, I'm Luk a Fury and thank
you for listening
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