UFC 316 Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luka Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC three sixteen that is headlined by the
rematch between bantamweight champion and Mirab Devolish Belly and the
former bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley going down this Saturday from
the Prudential Center in New Jersey. It's an immediate rematch.

(00:24):
For O'Malley, he's not fought anyone since they competed against
each other last September. But for Arab, he did get
the upset win over Umar Namaga Medov. Despite Marab being
the champion, he was a sizable underdog there got the
clear w regardless, So he's been training for other opposition,
whereas O'Malley has just been training for him. Despite that,

(00:46):
generally speaking, these immediate rematches for former champions have not
gone well. They have a very bad losing record in them.
In this case, I do feel like it might be
a little bit different of a scenario though, because in
the case of Morob, you know exactly what he's doing.
It's the same thing he's done against Umar, It's the
same thing he did against O'Malley the first time. It's

(01:08):
the same thing he's done his entire UFC career. He
is a generally straightforward fighter. It's just he's very hard
to deal with. He's relentless with the takedowns, the aggression,
the cardio, and the pace, but he doesn't have particularly
good striking. If O'Malley's able to keep this fight on
the feet, he has the striking advantage certainly. So if

(01:29):
over this last however long that he's been trading for Morob, now,
maybe he's able to figure out some way to help
at least defend the takedowns. Maybe he won't still be
successful overall with them, but maybe do a better job
of it and get more time on the feet, which
then does increase his win percentage. So I will say
this generally speaking, again, these immediate rematches don't go well

(01:51):
for the former champion, and while spoiler alert, I will
be picking Morob You're just like I did the first time.
I actually think that O'Malley has a higher win percentage
for this rematch than he did for the first one,
even though I picked him Robin both, I actually think
O'Malley has a better shot here. Again, still favoring him
to lose, I'll get onto why in a moment here,

(02:12):
But in this case, I do think the fact that
he's going against a generally straightforward fighter where it's just
figure out a way to defend the takedown or at
least more often and try to get your strikes off.
That's basically all he has to worry about here. His
cardio held up fine the first time. It wasn't like
it was a gassing issue or he just got completely

(02:33):
outclassed in every area. He basically just has to work
on keeping the fight on the feet. Whereas if you
compare this to say, some other situations where like Volkanovski
against Islam for example, when they rematched well, Volkanovski, there
was a lot of things he had to worry about there.
It wasn't just out defend the takedown and you automatically win.
As we saw he actually got knocked down on the

(02:55):
feet there. There was more to it there. There was
a size discrepancy, he was going against a massive one
at that. There was a variety of issues also the
short notice aspect for him, he was drinking going into it.
There was a lot of issues there. And again you
go back and look at some of the other immediate
champion rematches, it's not as straightforward of a matchup. It's
not as easy to say they basically just do this

(03:16):
one thing and their chances automatically increase, potentially significantly. So
this is one of the rare cases where I do
think that the immediate rematch actually isn't a bad thing
for the former champion, and in fact is probably actually
a good thing because now he's had all this time
to just prepare for that one thing. Because let's say

(03:37):
they had him face a striker to get a bounce
back fight before this, or he faced another grappler, but
it's a very different type of grappler than Morob. Well,
in both of those cases, he's training for a very
different fighter. And now, yes, he'd obviously have a full
training camp to go and rematch Morob, but that's different.
Then in this case, I'm assuming the UFC knew and

(03:58):
told him a while ago that he was going to
be having an immediate rematch, since he's the money fight,
and so he's probably been training for Morob all of
this time. So again I will still be picking against him,
as we'll get into more in a second, but I
do think this is actually one of the rare chances
where the champion who lost the belt and gets the
immediate rematch it actually helps their chances versus hurting them.

(04:19):
Real quick, before I get into that, do you want
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(04:42):
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(05:03):
information over on the page. So don't want to spend
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com slash Furious five Picks if you're interested in that
other content or the official bets. Moving on to the
fight breakdown here, I guess actually should start first with

(05:26):
the betting odds. We do have the defending champion Morab,
but Duaje Belli as the favorite, currently sitting at minus
two seventy five comeback on O'Malley is plus two thirty.
Back when they had fought the first time, the line
closed basically a pick them. It opened with Morab around
a two to one favorite, a little bit lower obviously
than he is now, but then closed at about a pickhm. So,

(05:48):
like I said, I picked Morob the first time, and
I favored him a certain amount. I actually think O'Malley
in a way has a better win percentage here, even
though again I'm picking against him. Well, why is that?
Because I still don't think that he's going to be
able to overcome the relentless pace, the takedowns, the overall
wrestling and graphic advantages that Morob has. If it was

(06:10):
as simple as just oh, I'm a striker and I'm
facing a wrestler. Next time, I'm going to bring in
a good wrestler, and I'm going to work on my wrestling,
and now I'll be able to suddenly outdo all of
the wrestling that this opponent has been doing since they
were five years old. Like, that's not how the world works.
You can improve your takedown defense, you can make it
certainly more competitive than you were previously, but he's not

(06:35):
going to close the gap completely, even with an extra
amount of time, not just a couple month training camp here,
but back to back training camps plus the time in between,
all focused on Morob. So he's not going to close
the gap completely. However, it's a question of how much
can he close it because Morob is not a guy

(06:55):
who has a high takedown percentage in terms of his accuracy.
He fails on any takedowns, but is relentless with the
pace in the cardio, especially over five rounds. So O'Malley again,
I don't think he's gonna out cardiom. I don't think
he's gonna outpace him, and I don't think he's gonna
consistently just defend all the takedowns for five rounds and
keep it twenty five minutes on the feet. However, he

(07:17):
might only need to land one big strike to completely
change the fight, if not win it. We have seen
Morob several times get not necessarily hurt and dropped, although
we have seen that multiple times, but we've seen him
take big shots just walking into him. Basically, he keeps
his chin up. He will oftentimes interer with his hands down,
whether he's striking or shooting. He is susceptible on the entries. Well,

(07:41):
look at, say, when Sean O'Malley fought al Jamaine Sterling.
Sterling certainly a better wrestler than O'Malley on paper. This
is how O'Malley won the title. If you're looking at
from a stylistic perspective, obviously Sterling's gonna need to shoot
takedowns there. But look at how the fight finished. Sterling
literally drops both of his hands, puts his chin up
even higher than normal, and then runs face first at

(08:06):
Sean O'Malley. Even O'Malley said afterwards, he was like, in
that split second, I couldn't believe he was actually doing it,
and I was like, I guess I'll just go for
the kill shot, and then he landed it. Even he
was like, this is insane that this champion would do
something that is just so boneheaded, such a rookie mistake. Well,
guess what, Morob kind of does the same thing. I

(08:28):
actually mentioned this in their first fight. It was one
of the concerns I had. That concern is still present,
and you saw in their first fight Morob really wasn't
interested in striking with O'Malley. There was a lot of distance,
a lot of circling, a lot of kind of avoiding
the fight to an extent on the feet. He wanted
no part in the striking, which I think is smart.

(08:48):
But I think that will also apply once again in
the rematch. So if we stay on the feet here,
O'Malley is a better striker. He has issues with his technique,
He has some defensive issues. He keeps his hands low
of course as well, but he does have good timing,
good reflexes, some pretty good speed and good power for
the division. Now, one thing that is worth noting, and
it's again something that I did mention going into the

(09:10):
first fight that still applies here. Nothing has changed since
the first fight in this regard, because again O'Malley has
not fought anybody else. Look at the wrestlers that O'Malley
has faced. Oh boy, he's faced just so many great wrestlers.
Oh wait, no, he hasn't. He's basically faced zero aside
from Arob. This is literally his UFC run right here.

(09:32):
Tirian Ware, Andre Sukumtath, Jose Keto, nez Eddie Weinland, Marlon Vera,
Thomas Almeida, Chris Mutino, Rowlean, Paiva, Pedro, Munoz Pyotr, Jan
aljaminer Sterling. Hey, there's a grappler wrestler, Marlon Vera again,
and then Marob devlish Belly. That's his entire UFC run. Like,

(09:56):
there's no wrestlers there, basically none. We're not even talking
about Like, ah, he's a wrestler, but he's not very No,
these are like striker striker, striker, striker, striker, striker, striker,
maybe a grappler who just has zero wrestling at all,
who never takes down anyone even in training, probably because
the wrestling is just completely non existent. Like that's his

(10:18):
UFC run. And then he fought Morob and just clearly
lost a fight against a wrestler, so again he has
a massive amount of work to make up. However, again
he's had now so long to try to figure out
some sort of taxes. Well, again, I don't think he's
going to just go out there and stuff to takedowns
for twenty five minutes. Maybe he finds a way to
get more strikes off in those periods where they're on

(10:39):
the feet and Morob is kind of trying to avoid
the fight. Maybe he finds ways to defend a little
bit better in the clinch and then get strikes off
during the break. There's excuse me, There's a variety of
small adjustments that he can do that I'm assuming he
will at least attempt to do some of them. That
will again increase his percentage. Do I think it shifts

(11:01):
it over the line of fifty percent where now he
is the favorite. No, But I do think as someone
who bet Morob the first time, given where the line
is now, I don't think he's imbeddable territory. I don't
think he can do it at almost three to one.
I just don't see value there. I do think he's
a more likely winner. I think it will probably look
pretty similar to the first fight, and who knows, maybe

(11:23):
the way things shake out, maybe it looks even more
dominant from Morob. Maybe he's improved since then, Maybe he
thought of some other things himself that he can do
against O'Malley. Maybe he went back and looked at the
tape and went, wow, there is these spots here where
I really could have capitalized on, and I did it,
And this happened over and over. He picks up on
a pattern and then he goes out and actually exploits
of this time around. That's all possible as well. So

(11:44):
again I don't think that when you look at the
first fight and then compare to this one, that much
necessarily has changed in terms of their skills or their abilities.
It's all about the approach. Do they approach it differently?
Do they approach it the same? Do they approach it
relatively the same, but with some key adjustments that make
all the difference. These are the things we have to

(12:05):
be looking at here, And when I parse all the details,
ultimately what I go with is I think O'Malley will
probably put on maybe a better showing, Maybe he lands
some better strikes, maybe he actually defends some takedowns at times.
But again I just don't think it's going to be enough.
It might be a performance where he earned some respect
where people go, Okay, you know, good fight, put up

(12:26):
a good effort. He showed some improvements. But Morob is
the machine. He's just a beast. He's so incredibly hard
to deal with, that cardio, that pace. And also again
O'Malley not only a striker, hasn't really faced many wrestlers
at all throughout his career. So ultimately, I think we
see probably a pretty similar fight the first time around,
just unfortunately the line is much different. And now I

(12:47):
don't think there's value on Morob. If O'Malley is going
to win, I could see it actually being by TKO
or decision. I know a lot of people are saying
it basically has to be by KO, but think about
it this way. Look at a lot of Morob's fights.
How Again, even when he lands a bunch of takedowns,
he usually misses significantly more. So, let's say there's a round.

(13:09):
Let's say the fight starts out O'Malley, he's obviously trying
to strike. Morob wants no part of it. He's keeping distance,
not trying to make a big mistake early on while
he's cold, And then ultimately we actually see a round
where not much happens. Maybe O'Malley lands a florry on
a break here or there, it's a majority on the feet.
Maybe Morob fails on a couple bad takedown attempts. Who's

(13:32):
winning that round, especially when you know the UFC, if
there's any championship buys here, generally that would be towards Morob.
But obviously they want their golden boy O'Malley to win here,
So if there's any bias in judging or the cards
or the referee, it's going to be in the favor
of O'Malley, of course, obviously. So maybe a close round

(13:52):
like that that goes to O'Malley. Then let's say a
round two picks up typical Morob type of fight. Now
he's working the clinch, working the pace, getting maybe some
takedowns go and you go okay. Now now he's in
a flow. It's probably gonna look like the first fight again.
And then he comes out in round three, does the
same thing yet again, and now you go okay, and
rob up two to one. Now he entered the championship
rounds again. Should be all good for him, right with

(14:14):
the cardio and the pace. But let's say maybe it
takes a bit of a round off, not intentionally, but
let's just say the way it plays out, he doesn't
be as effective the earlier rounds. Then he goes out
there and maybe on our scorecards we think he edged it.
But again give him the bias given the way judges
score rounds where they just love to make rounds even

(14:35):
for some reason. We're always talking about this. If you
have one round where a guy won it dominantly, and
then the next round he wins it close, say it's
it a three rounder. Those are the first two rounds.
So many times, despite the one guy deserving to be
up two to zero, the judges will actually have it
one to one. It's just just this very weird thing
they do. So maybe this scenario again. Now we get
two to two for Sean, I mean not for him,

(14:57):
but he improves to two to two from being down
two to one one, and now we're going into the
fifth round where it's anybody's fight, and maybe he plays
out similarly to one of those other close rounds. You
look at the first fight, there was not only some
rounds that were not dominant for Morob, but there are
also some rounds that could have been close that he
ended up basically having small moments in that kind of
not stole around for him, but kind of put a

(15:19):
stamp on it for him. What if in some of
those rounds O'Malley is just a bit more competitive and
we get judges not necessarily even pulling some bs where
it's like a straight robbery, but it's close enough that
they go for the golden boy and you're laying three
to one on that. That's a big concern for me.
So I think O'Malley can win, obviously by the puncher's
chance just catching Morob on the way in, but also

(15:42):
I would not be surprised if he snuck away with
the decision that he maybe didn't even deserve. Again, I'm
not saying this is a complete fifty to fifty fight.
I'm not saying I favor O'Malley. What I am saying
is so many people, when we get to these rematches,
especially when they're instant, they just blindly go, oh, we
saw what happened the first fight. Nothing is going to change,

(16:03):
just Rinson repeat, And that's not how it goes. Fighters
make adjustments. Yes, the skills don't change much, but the
approach and the game plan and the adjustments do. And
I definitely see far more adjustments to be made for
O'Malley that will improve his chances versus adjustments for Morob
to make. Now. Yes, when you lose a fight versus

(16:23):
you winning it, generally the loser has more adjustments to make,
but it's not often as dramatic as this, where there's
not really that many adjustments for Morob, Like he can't
strike with O'Malley, so it makes sense to again just
kind of avoid the striking, avoid the fight on the feet,
and wait for your moments to get the takedowns, to clinch,
work your pac and cardio. In that regard, what's his

(16:44):
adjustment here, Oh I'm gonna suddenly be k one Morob
and try to strike with him. I mean, he'd be
a complete idiot if he does that. So I expect
a somewhat similar approach from Rob. I expect some adjustments
from O'Malley. Maybe they make him have a better chance here,
but I still think ultimately it does come down to
the cardio. The pace and the wrestling and the clinch

(17:04):
attack for Arob is just going to be too much
for O'Malley, who just doesn't have a great skill set
to go against that. My main point here though, in
talking about adjustments and all that, is they're hanging almost
three to one on Morob again. I bet him the
first time, So it's not like I'm a Morob hater
or an O'Malley fanboy or something like that, but the
line matters. It's a significant difference between a pickum and

(17:27):
almost three to one, So Morob will be my prediction.
I think he wins a decision, maybe a bit more
competitive than last time, but still a decision win for Morob.
Just don't like him from a betting perspective, and that
will do it for the free edition of the podcast.
But remember up right now, over on Patreon, I have
the arrest of the fight breakdowns for this event, end

(17:49):
up the breakdowns for several other fights. Check those out
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remember there's a bunch of other content there as well,
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picks and with methods by all of the different staff

(18:10):
who contribute to the page pre and post fight podcasts
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course you get the official bets as well, several of
them up now for this card and more, all third
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(18:30):
or sign up again at patreon dot com, Slash Theories,
fight Picks. Finally, we have a great UFC schedule coming
up before the summer, a couple of months here where
they're not even going back to the apex, some good
pay per views. This has been probably the worst six
months that the UFC has started the year with. It
has been honestly pretty awful. I'm not the only ones

(18:54):
saying that. But on the bright side, all of the
sort of meat and potatoes, not exciting stuff we've dealt
with recently has led to a nice dessert in the
summer where now we have a bunch of fighters who
are not active earlier, some of the bigger names, some
of the bigger matchups. They are all now straight ahead
we get to enjoy them. So thank god, we finally

(19:15):
have a good schedule with not just meaningful matchups, but
exciting ones, the ones that actually get you looking forward
to events. So great time coming up for MMA fans
over the summer also means great time for betting opportunities
as well. Check them all out again Patreon dot com,
slash Furies Fight Picks. Other than that, I'm get out
of here now. I'm going to go back to watching
some more tape so I can contribute to some more

(19:36):
content over on that page again. Hopefully you join us
over there, but even if not, I hope you profit
on all of your bets this weekend. Good luck on them,
and I'm Luka Fiuri. Thank you for listening.