UFC 317 Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC three seventeen that is headlined by the
UFC lightweight title beout between former champion Charles Olivera and
former featherweight champion Ilio Tuporia, who's moving up not for
the first time, second time actually in the UFC he's

(00:21):
moving up to one fifty five this time of of course,
obviously much tougher competition. Not Jai Herbert this time around
for champ Charles Olivera, so Isla Maikasha moved up to
one seventy to take on welchweight champion Jack Dela Madalena
left the one to fifty five pound division with a
lack of a title holder, so now we have this

(00:42):
one for the belt. Very interesting clash of styles here.
Both of them are fairly well rounded, but certainly Ilia
Taporia's skills are weighted towards his striking, specifically his boxing,
although he can kick a bit too, while Olivera he
can strike, but certainly he is a significantly better grappler
than strikers. So fun matchup on paper should be very exciting.

(01:04):
These are two of the more exciting fighters in UFC history,
they're pretty much never in a boring fight either of them,
so hopefully this is another good one. I do think
we're going to see a finish no matter who wins,
and I do certainly lean towards one fighter over the other,
not that that is a surprise considering where the betting

(01:24):
odds are, I do favor Iliotaporia in this matchup. He
is a minus four twenty five favorite, so not exactly
shocking anyone with that prediction, although I will say I
don't sure if the odds should be as high as
they are. I think, if anything, they might actually be
a bit inflated, despite the fact that I do think

(01:44):
Toporia will probably get his hand raised by knockout. More
on that in just a second. Before that, do you
want to remind you, guys, of course, of my page
over at patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks, that
has a buch more content. Besides just these free main
event previews that go up in various podcast feeds, have

(02:06):
a bunch of other fight breakdowns, both in podcast form
written form. Some other podcast series such as The Post
Fight Show, as well as Luca's Lecture. A new episode
just went up discussing if John Jones is still the
MMA goat in my opinion. I previously had done an
episode comparing all the resumes of the goats and said

(02:26):
John Jones is the greatest of all time. That was
two and a half years ago, though, before his sham
of a heavyweight run, so did that affect my opinion
on his goat status? You can check out my in
depth thoughts over on the Patreon in the Lucas Lecture
category section. Of course. Also, most importantly of all, we
have the official bets over there, made almost one hundred

(02:47):
units last year, up hundreds of units long term over
several years. All bets are third party tracked and verified,
so there's no fudging those results. Several bets up right
now for UFC three seventeen this week, as well as
PFL and some other MMA events as well. Check it
all out again patreon dot com Slash Furies fight picks.

(03:11):
Other than that, getting back to the fight breakdown here,
Ilio Tupori against Charles Alavera. Here's the thing. Charles Olivera
I think can win in two ways. One obviously, if
somehow we see extended grappling exchanges as possible he could
get a submission. This man is truly one of the
best submission artists in MMA history, if not the best.

(03:32):
It's not just that he goes out there and gets
impressive and even unorthodox submissions against lower level grapplers, which
would be expected. But you look at say a guy
like Damian Maya, one of the other top grapplers in
UFC history, Brazilian jiu jitsu grapplers specifically, that is, he
didn't actually get a lot of submissions, especially over good fighters.
But Charles Olivera will submit even other great submissions specialists,

(03:55):
even other fighters who have great submission defense. So he's
truly one of the best submission artists in MMA history.
He can absolutely submit Ilia to Poria, and from a
strange position as well, he doesn't have to get a
takedown to do it, so he can absolutely win that way.
But also to Pouria his chin. It's not been bad,

(04:15):
but it's also not been bulletproof. We did see Jai
Herbert at lightweight before. Now he is bigger than Olivera,
but still was one of the bigger fighters that Toporia
has ever faced, and that length they'd give to Poria
problems and to Puria against Olivera will be at a
height and reach and overall size disadvantage quite a significant
one as well, five to eleven versus five foot seven,

(04:38):
And while yes, to Poria is the much better striker
and specifically boxer offensively and defensively, the range in length
is going to give him some problems. Now that being said,
he did just fight Max Holloway, who is also about
the same size as Charles Olivera, and he basically shredded
through Max Holloway. However, old more punching power with his

(05:01):
individual strikes. He's also a better kicker, even though he
doesn't kick that much. And even though yes, Max Holloway
is a much better striker than Olivera overall, Olivera is
in a way more of a dangerous striker for Toporia
because of the power with the individual strikes. So Holloway
more had to land a high level of volume and

(05:24):
eventually wear down the chin of Taporia wasn't going to
likely one hit or quitter him at any point, at
least in the first half of the fight, whereas oliver
was not necessarily going to one hitter quitter him. He
might actually be able to rock him easier than Holloway did.
And also if he rocks him, he doesn't have to
kom he can just hop on a submission. So those
are the danger zones for Taporia, the actual power and ranger,

(05:48):
reach and length and size of olivera as well as
of course the general submission game of him from any position.
But aside from that, to Pooria is the overall better fighter.
He is a better boxer. He's a better kickboxer. He's
a better overall striker. He certainly has more power, better reflexes,
faster as well, better with combinations, better with single shots,

(06:11):
better footwork, better movement, just better all around as a striker,
more durable as well. And then in terms of the wrestling,
he's also the better wrestler offensively and defensively, although he
hasn't faced a bunch of wrestlers. And then in terms
of jiu jitsu, yes, obviously, as I just mentioned, Oliver
is better there, but Taporia is very good himself. And

(06:34):
not to say that he wants to go and play
with fire with Oliver here on the ground, but it's
not like, oh man, there's a grappling exchange. It's over
within ten seconds. Oliver is just gonna effortlessly destroy him
with any grappling potential that the fight ever receives. No,
that's not the case. Tapouria can mind his p's and q's,
he can be careful, and he can even survive a
lot of positions here with Oliver, especially if he's on top,

(06:57):
still certainly very dangerous, but it's not like he's gompletely
dead in the water. So when you look at overall man,
that's a lot of advantages for Toporia, also Cardio and
Abilly to fight down the stretch. Well, yes, we've seen
that from OLIVERA he has wilted in some situations. He
doesn't seem to take damage all that well, he's had
some serious quit at him in times in the past.

(07:19):
He also even showed it a bit against Islam, got
rocked down and just rocked and knocked it down and
then didn't even try to fight this submission, just basically
gave up, as you've seen him do before. He had
shown some great resilience in those recent bouts, but not
in that one. So it did still show that he
does have that quit subwhere inside of him. Maybe Toporia
can bring it out in him again. But when you
look at the overall dynamics of the fight. Who wants

(07:42):
to keep the fight on the feet, that's Taporia. Who
wants to take it to the ground obviously Olivera. Well,
who's going to be able to dictate whether it stays
on the feet or goes to the ground. That's to Poria,
so should be able to keep it upright, and if
there he is the better striker. So I think that
is why to Poria should be the more likely winner here,
and he does deserve to be the favorite, and I
think that it's possible also maybe if he does actually

(08:05):
run into a little bit of trouble for some reason,
get swarmed a bit on the feet, he could actually
shoot a take down, a reactive takedown and doesn't necessarily
have to stay on the ground with OLIVERI he could
try to escape back up or just use it as
a way to upset his rhythm. But that's also something
that could be in the bag for to Poria here,
so I don't think he has to completely avoid the
grappling get all costs. I think he could also go

(08:26):
out there, get in Olivera's face early and knock him out.
He could also be more careful and win down the
stretch more of a measured pace like what he had
against josh Emmett. So again, overall it really does favor
to Poria. Why I say not sure he should be
minus four to twenty five is yes, this is a
step up in competition in terms of his lightweight opponents,

(08:47):
certainly better than Jai Herbert. And well, yes, Max Holloway
was about the size of Olivera. That was at one
forty five he was cutting down Wait for that, he's
a thin one forty five Olivera seems like he's stronger
than Hall. The way is in general anyways, and especially
in terms of the grapping context obviously, and also as
a mention with the power. So moving up to one

(09:08):
fifty five and facing not just the best opponent a
one fifty five at these face, but what are the
best opponents of his career for Taporia, that's one thing. Also,
how does his body really do at one fifty five
if we see it go at length for I say,
a twenty five minute fight here. Didn't see that with Herbert.
And also again much lower competition there. So potentially, as
we've seen in the past, fighters when they move up

(09:30):
they do have worse Cardio, especially in their first outing
or so possible for Taporia, and man, you do not
want to be tired with Olivera trying to stalk you
down either land big shots or get a submission on you.
So that's another small concern for him. And also, like
I said, he could get he could get hit and
knocked down, he could get submitted that way. Oliver could
go for a takedown, fail take his back standing and

(09:52):
submit him that way. Again, he cannot be understated how
good this dude'submission game is. So I look at this
fight and go man for twenty five. That's like a
pretty safe price. That's like maybe your opponent has like
just a puncher's chance or something. There's more than just
a puncher's chance for Olivera here. There's a variety of
things that could go wrong for Taporia, as I just mentioned,
So I do think the line is actually inflated, and

(10:13):
I can't get behind betting him here. That being said,
I do still think the most likely outcomeist to Pooria
by ko. I don't think we see a decision either
way here. I think we see Taporia probably knock him out,
and if that happens, it's probably gonna look pretty one sided.
It's one of those cases where he might look like
minus a thousand if he goes out there and wins,
but that doesn't actually mean that he really should have

(10:34):
been minus one thousand, because the risks that I just
mentioned for Olivera are still present. Like, even if Taporia
goes out there just knocks him out in two minutes,
it doesn't mean that if a fight would have gone
three minutes that Olivera couldn't have hurt him, or couldn't
have gotten some sort of scramble and gotten a submission.
All of those small percentages still add up and are
still factored into the overall percentage of the winners here.

(10:54):
So I think if Taporia wins, it's probably gonna look
pretty dominant, but there's just a variety of risks that
it could go wrong. Now considering I do think that
he's a bit inflated, but also the fact that he's
pretty heavily weighted towards a KO victory in my opinion,
If he wins, then potentially look at the KO props
that might actually have value here to Pouria by KO
right now only minus one forty I fight inside the

(11:19):
distance is minus six hundred dish, So like, I don't
know what they're doing with that line. That should be higher,
that should be at least two to one in my
opinion at least, And I just I can't see myself
passing on that, so I won't betting it yet. It's
still very early in the week. I gotta wait for
it to open up at more spots get higher limits.
But I mean, if that's minus one forty later in

(11:39):
the week, I'm not passing that up. So in terms
of my ficial prediction, I think Toporio probably gets a
KO within the first half of the fight. I think
that in terms of a betting perspective, pass on him
on the money line. Look for him by Ko at
especially under two to one, maybe even slightly higher though
as well. Currently again minus one forty, So if that

(12:00):
is a book you have and the limits are within
your range, I would definitely recommend looking at that. But again,
my official prediction will be Iliataporia by Ko and that
will do it for this episode of the Free Main
Event podcast. But remember over on my Patreon at patreon
dot com slash Furies Fight Picks, there is a bunch
more content for this card at others. Also some other

(12:23):
green content including betting strategy guides, post fight shows, live streams,
and of course, most importantly of all the official bets.
We have several up right now for USC three seventy
this week as well as PFL this week and other
MMA this week as well. Gonna be a big week
of action, so make sure you go and sign up

(12:43):
and tail all of those bets made hundreds of units
long term, made almost one hundred units last year alone.
All those bets, every single one, past and present, third
party tracked and verified, so there could be no doubting
or fudging those results, so check it all out again.
Patreon dot com slash Furies fight Picks. Also, in case

(13:05):
you're wondering, there is a very simple equation you can
figure out that if you're wondering how much you actually
need to bet in order to profit after the very
small membership cost and still be able to actually make
money on the bets aside from it, you only need
to be betting less than five dollars a unit, and
our average bet size is only two units, so it's
not like we're patting our record with a bunch of

(13:25):
ten unit plays or something. So as long as you're
betting at least five dollars a unit, you can profit
on the service. Again, very low membership fees. There's a
couple of different tiers, so it depends on twenty go
for but the highest one is only around fifty bucks,
so it's not like we're charging extreme prices. That's fifty
bucks per month as well gets you all of the
content on the entire page, so check it all out again.

(13:47):
Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks. Hopefully see you
there for the rest of the content this week. Until then,
I'm Luca Fury and thank you for listening.