UFC 320 Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luka Fury, and welcome to my free main
event preview for UFC three twenty. That is Alex Pajana
trying to win back his UFC light heavyweight title against
the man who took it from him earlier this year,
that is magomed A goliav. The rematch has taken place
about seven months after the first one, which is a

(00:22):
bit long for an immediate rematch, long enough that they
actually have time to improve or change stuff from their
first one. A lot of times with these immediate rematches,
not necessarily just rematches in general, but the immediate ones,
it's on such a quick turnaround that well, yes they
try to make adjustments in camp and all that, there's
still not that much time to really change all that much.

(00:45):
Whereas this length of time there's actually a chance for
either of them to make a real adjustment here, not
just a strategic adjustment, but actually a skill adjustment. And
I can't say so much obviously just from watching tape
or watching interviews. Will see what happens when they get
in there on fight night. But from the footage of
Alex training, it does seem like he may be coming

(01:07):
with a different approach versus the first time around. We'll
get to that more in a second here, but it
is an interesting rematch, one that I think is actually
tougher to call than the odds that indicate. So I
think it's an interesting one not only to break down,
but I'm very very curious to see what adjustments, if any,
the two of them were to make on fight night.

(01:28):
So excited to talk about this one real quick. Before that,
as a reminder, I have a bunch more content available
over on my Patreon that is patreon dot com Slash
Furies Fight Picks. That's where also you can find this
podcast earliest. It's always free on every platform and it
goes up the earliest over there. I also have other
written and podcast breakdowns that are exclusive to the Patreon,

(01:51):
and of course have the official bets as well. One
a little bit on Data White Contender series earlier tonight.
That's fine and all, but lost a decent amount on
the last UFC had a really really good run going there,
but that put a slow down in that for sure.
So one on the other NIME that week, but not
on the UFC so so far, winning on the other

(02:13):
MME this week as well, but hopefully we'll also win
on the UFC here too. We do have several bets
up now for it. As usual, I'll have some other
bets up for the other mme going down this week too.
There's a big PFL card the day before, as usually,
get all of our bets over on the Patreon, all
third party tracked and verified of course as well. But

(02:34):
of course you're here for the main event preview, so
let's get on to that. The betting ons for this
one much different than the first time around, and they
fought back in March. It was pretty much a pickum
slight favorite actually for Alex. This time around though now
you would expect an Caliav to be either a small favorite,

(02:56):
maybe a moderate favorite, something like that. But he's actually
a good size favorite. He's around minus two sixty ish,
depends where you look. One random book has minus one eighty,
another random one has minus six seventy, but generally speaking
gets around minus two seventy for him. So very very
good sized favorite here, not a huge one, but considering

(03:18):
how close the first fight was, considering the style dynamic
for the rematch, Like I said earlier, I'm not sure
I agree that the odds should be this steep. In
terms of the first fight, I thought that Unclelav deserved
to win it, rewatched it, thought he deserved to slightly
edge it out, but it was very close. It wasn't

(03:39):
like he dominated or anything like that. There was a
clip release of both of them talking about their thoughts
on the first matchup, and I thought both of them
kind of got it wrong. Unclelia thought he completely dominated
and that Alex was scared the whole time. I don't
think either of those are true. Meanwhile, Alex thought he won,
but also thought that Uncle La basically nothing at all,

(04:00):
which I also think both of those things are not true.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. On KOLIAV.
He did do something, it just wasn't a lot. He
did not dominate, and the Lex was not scared. It
was a very close fight that Ankoliav edged out. That's
the reality of it, and stylistically going into it, if

(04:21):
you listen to my breakdown, I thought that that was
a very very realistic, not just possibility but probability for
how the fight would likely go. I thought it was
going to be a close, tough one that was going
to be competitive throughout, and that was ultimately what happened.
And I bring it up not to brag, because it's
not like that was any kind of you know, nostrodamous prediction.
I feel like it's pretty obvious if you're familiar with

(04:42):
the fighters, that that's a very real chance of it happening.
Point being very real chance of it happening. Yet again,
this is an immediate rematch. What has changed since the
first time. Yes, adjustments can be made, But why would
we suddenly expect on caliv to essentially now actually dominate
when but almost three to one here, I mean, that's
what the odds are starting to say there. Even this

(05:04):
should be a very easy, clean cut victory for him,
not like, you know, minus eight hundred. He should go
out there and effortlessly dust him. But this shouldn't be
a sweat. When you're talking about almost three to one,
that should not be a sweat. When I think if
on Calia wins, there's a very very real chance that
it is, like the first one, a close competitive one
that is a sweat. A criticism that I've always had

(05:26):
about on Calive is that he never really pulls away
in fights. For the most part, very consistently, he does
just barely enough if you throw nineteen strikes, he lands twenty.
If you land a takedown, he lands two takedowns. He
just does barely more than you do and ekes out
close decision wins. That is the majority of his career.

(05:47):
He's had some weird fights, at least in the OCNY ways.
It's the majority of his career. He's had some weird fights,
like yeah, the Kudalava ones where you know there's tkos
in that, But generally speaking, that's on Calive, especially against
good competition. Now, maybe he can hurt Alex, who is
aging and did actually get hurt a little bit by
him in the first fight, not as bad as Uncle
Ive seemed to think, but he definitely was stung a

(06:09):
bit there at the end of the round. So maybe
you know Alex getting up there in age. He did
get knocked up by Israel, who doesn't really you know,
knock out anybody in recent years. Even in his prime,
he wasn't a big knockout artist. He was, you know,
like look at Derek Brunson that fight. He hit brunts
in with like eight hundred nukes and couldn't even put
him out. And we know Brunson is a terrible chin. Look,

(06:30):
when he actually is able to stop Robert Whitaker, he
had to hit him with some of the hardest, cleanest
punches that Israel has ever thrown in his entire career,
and then was not able to replicate it in the rematch.
So I mean Israel going out there and putting him
out cold like that, and then almost doing it in
their previous fight before that as well. I don't think
Alexa's chin is all that strong, but Uncle Elive hasn't

(06:51):
ever really shown to be that big of a power guy,
so maybe he can hurt him a little bit worse
than he did the last time out and maybe actually
does get a finish. But I think the most most
likely on caliv when here would be basically what happened
in the first fight, a close competitive decision where he
fails on the takedowns and is basically able to just
barely barely do more than Alex and edge out a decision.

(07:17):
On the flip side. I can see more adjustments that
could be made for Alex. One thing that I'm Clive
talked about is how he walked him down. Well, that
is true, but that's also because Alex allowed him to
do that. Like he just would literally let him walk forward.
He didn't even try to take the center of the
octagon or try to pressure himself. He just allowed it
to happen. So one thing he could do is try

(07:37):
to not let that happen as much, or another thing
he could do is akaliv. He does not have the
cleanest striking fundamentals, and he goes in for these kind
of like lazy strikes that don't really have much power
on them and are never intended to really hurt his opponent.
And when he does that, he doesn't really move his
head very much and he leaves himself open to counters.

(07:57):
That's how I thought if Alex was going to get
him the first fight, it would be like that, catching
him on the way in with some type of counter. Well,
Uncle Ive kind of just left the door open for it. Well,
interestingly enough, as I alluded to earlier, if you watch
some of the training footage of Alex, which by the way,
generally speaking, I don't think you can get much from
training footage, so still take this front with a grain

(08:18):
of salt, because a lot of that is just performative nonsense.
It's not really their actual training footage. But one thing
I have noticed kind of consistently from him when he's
doing padwork and some other things. More so for this
fight much more he seems to be focusing on landing
hard counters in the pocket, not so much like before
where he'd be kind of like getting inside and out

(08:39):
of distance work in maybe some combinations. Here it seemed
like he's almost trying to do something like throw a jab,
maybe a lead hook that doesn't really have much bad
intentions on it, in order to bait Uncle Ive then
in order to maybe counter himself and then basically counter
Onnclive's counter. So basically it looks like he's going to

(08:59):
try to do something to lure Anclive into acting and
then try to counter that action. Seems like maybe that's
something that is in the game plan for Alex. Now, again,
this is training footage. You could take it with a
grain of salt, because a lot of times, again it
is just performative. But I do find it interesting that
there has seemed to be this going on and a

(09:21):
lot of the footage I've seen from him, which is
not the case in the past. He would do it
sometimes in the past, but there seems to be more
of a concerted effort around it this time around. Now.
One of the other reasons why I think that might
actually be part of his game plan is because if
you were to come up with a good game plan
for him, that would probably be it. Right. For the
reasons I mentioned, Anclave leaves those openings. Alex has never

(09:44):
really been a good volume guy. Aunclive is the better guy,
just kind of doing barely more than you and out
voluming him like the outvoluming his opponents like we saw
the first time with Alex. So it doesn't really make
sense for Alex to go out there and try to
be Max holloway Land volume combinations and try to win
that way. Doesn't make sense for him to try to grapple.

(10:05):
It makes sense for him to try to use his
devastating some of the biggest, hardest hitting KO power that
we've seen in UFC history actually try to leverage that
in his favor. And the best way to do it
as well. By doing that, lourn Calive out to engaging
a strikes in the pocket where he is most susceptible
of any area and trying to tag him with a

(10:26):
huge counter. We've seen Alex do this stuff in kickboxing
We've seen him do it in MMA fights as well.
He's kind of turned into more of a basic, rudimentary
kickboxer in recent years. Like if you watch Actually Have
It up on the Patreon, a fight film episode where
I break down his performance against Sean Strickland. He goes
out there and he throws the body jab over and

(10:47):
over to Strickland's chest, waiting for him to over commit.
As soon as he sees him over commit, the next
time he throws a left hand, it's not the body jab,
it's the power left hook. The KO shot or basically
started the KO finish. Took a couple of them, but
it was the one that hurt him bad initially and
made him put his hands down, And that wasn't just

(11:08):
a coincidence. That was very clearly a diligent game plan. Again,
go watch the footage on the Patreon. I have the
actual video of the fight going along as I break
it down, slow mowing and drawing on the screen and stuff,
and I point out why you can see this is
objectively clearly what happened wasn't just a coincidence. So he
used to do things like set traps like that. He
hasn't really seemed to be doing that in some recent fights,

(11:28):
just seems to kind of be going out there and
doing what he's doing and happened to be having success.
Maybe this time now, coming off a loss, he'll actually
go out there and be a bit more strategic and tactical,
which again kind of seems to be the case from
some of the training footage that's been coming out for
this fight. Now. A man, on the other hand, one
thing I absolutely hate is dude, like more than any

(11:51):
kind of interviews, more than any training footage, more than
any you know, Instagram posts of him just looking like
a pro fighter. The majority of what you're seeing about
this you leading up to this fight is him out
there just streaming doing stupid stuff with Nina drama. Okay, cool.
You want to try to you know, elevate your brand
or whatever, try to you know, make money in other ways,
just increase your popularity, Okay, I get it. But you're

(12:13):
in for the biggest fight of your career right now
in the UFC, a huge rematch, and i'd kind of like,
maybe like to see a bit more focused rather than
all the just stupid, silly nonsense he's been doing. It's
not like you know, she's just been there documenting his training.
She's like taking him out on the town and they're
just doing stupid shit late at night when the dude

(12:33):
should be sleeping or training. Like that's kind of what
I would like to see from someone going into ther
you know, massive rematch here. So on one hand, maybe
we see some improvement from him, some adjustments. On the other,
maybe he's thinking, you know, well, you know, I already
had my two titles in the UFC. I could go
out there and beat on Calive again, But you know,
what does it really do for me? Maybe just isn't

(12:55):
that motivated for this rematch. Obviously he has some level
of motivation obviously and just totally not care. But there
are differences in motivation. Look at, for example, the effort
mentioned Israel Atasnia. Something I've mentioned him after he finally
beat his biggest rival, Alex got the win over him,
the KO dude seemed to be completely mentally checked out

(13:16):
of everything, interviews, fights, fight week, everything he did. The
dude seemed like he was totally like, all right, I
won my super Bowl. I am gone. I'm riding off
into the sunset. And I would say this to people
like bra armchairsh psychologists, blah blah blah. And now, of
course everybody's like, oh, yeah, he's been washed for several
fights in a row. He's just not been in it.

(13:36):
It's clearly been the case. So maybe for Alex we
have that same situation here, because there are some signs
of it, just not the same kind of stuff we'd
see from him before. Yes, he would do sometimes some
you know, random meme videos here and there, but not
like this. I mean, this is taking up a significant
portion of his time instead of going out there doing
toe holds on the mat in jiu jitsu, He's holding

(13:57):
Nina's toes up to the camera for the in cels
cheer out. It's just like, are you a fighter or
are you trying to be the next Aiden Ross? Here?
Like what are we doing? And so there's a level
where it's like, Okay, again, I understand expanding your brand,
your popularity, et cetera. But then there's a point where
I'm like, I don't know, this kind of seems like
a significant distraction. And again, people always want to say, I'm

(14:19):
sure a psychologist, but I have a pretty good track
record when I have concerns about this type of stuff.
You know Alexander Volkanowski back when he rematched Islam, I
was on him the first time when he was like
a plus four or fifty underdog, said it was going
to be a super close decision, niptuck and it was
don't regret that bed at all. Then they do the rematched,
we'd think, well, why would I be on him again

(14:40):
as a big underdog, Like, if it's going to be
another close decision, I should be on him, right, No,
I said, I think this dude's not only gonna lose.
I think he gets finished this time, because look at
how he's been outside of the cage. He's been drinking.
He took this on short notice. He's talking like he
is punched drunk and cteed into the moon and then
what happened. He gets knocked with a freakinhead kick. So

(15:02):
it's like when you watch these fighters week after week
after week, year after year after year, sometimes multiple decades,
Like Volkanovski, I've been watching forever. Yeah, I'm gonna notice
when the dude's completely different on fight week. Been watching
Israel forever. I'm gonna notice when the dude's completely different
on fight week. Been watching alex forever, since before he
was even in the UFCEED. I have tweets about him,

(15:23):
praising him as a striker before he was even in
the UFCE, been watching him forever, and yet now I'm going, hmmm,
uh oh, uh oh, there's a difference here on fight week.
I don't know about this now. Unlike some of those
other examples that I mentioned, and I could go on
with many more, those ones seemed pretty clear cut to me, like,

(15:44):
I just thought that was objective. I couldn't believe that
people were not categorically in agreement with me. In the
case of Alex, I'm not actually so sure of it.
It's a concern of mine. I definitely don't like it,
But I'm not as concerned as in those other cases
where I'm like, I'm for sure they're affected by that,

(16:04):
where whether Alex somehow find or excuse me a Volkanowski
found a way to somehow win, or Israel went on
one of those fights, I still was like, for sure,
under the assumption they were affected negatively in some way.
I'm not sure if Alex is he might go out
there and lose the fight and he still might not
actually be negatively affected by the streaming and the other stuff.
Maybe it really just was not a distraction. I don't know.

(16:27):
I don't know enough about obviously his schedule and everything
to know if it is for sure a distraction. But
I would be lying if I would say it's not
a concern. So some of those other cases, again, I'm like, man,
this is like actually really really bad news, Like almost
kind of bet based on how they're acting. In this case,
that's not so much the case. But I will say this,

(16:50):
I think it's a dogger pass situation. I very likely
will end up with money on Alex here, but I
want to continue to see how he is on fight
week here. It's right now Tuesday when I'm recording this.
I want to see Wednesday, Thursday, Friday press conferences weigh ins,
Like I want to see what the deal is here. Also,
he was super heavy just a couple weeks out, he

(17:12):
was like two forty three. Is that because he's planning
to move up to heavyweight later and bulk up for that,
which either would be a smart career decision win or lose.
Or is it because he's just not training all that
seriously and doesn't have his heart in it as he
used to. Again, this man, he used to make middleweight.
Let's not forget so as of right now, if the
fight were to take place like in five minutes, I

(17:34):
would still probably put my money on Alex. I think
where the line is now, I just I don't think
it should be that inflated. I think regardless if you're
picking on Calive or Alex, I think it's automatic dogger pass.
I think that's pretty clear. Maybe Onclave still goes out
there and wins, but man, I don't think he's gonna
look like he should be around three to one favorite,
unless maybe Alex really just doesn't have his heart and

(17:56):
it looks that bad. But again, I will be looking
at Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, probably would bet Friday evening if
I play Alex here, and I want to see, you
know again, how he's at the press conferences, how he
looks at the weigh ins, because we might get some
good indication there. Maybe he looks super focused all fight
week now, maybe he looks in tremendous shape at the

(18:19):
weigh ins, and then it's like, okay, maybe not so
much a concern with the other stuff. Whereas like Volkanofsky,
for example, didn't look good at the weigh ins. Israel,
for example, looked terrible at the press conferences, looked like
he wanted to be anywhere else other than there. So
you can definitely get a sense of this throughout the
fight week. That's why I said, like with those two,
those examples and some others, I for sure thought it

(18:40):
was negatively gonna affect them, and I was pretty adamant
about that when I did the podcast as well. This one,
I have some concerns, but it's more let's wait and see,
rather than me already thinking the book has been written.
So if he goes out there looking, you know, terrible
at the press conferences, looks like his heart's not in it,
maybe looks like out of shape at the wayans or something,
we wouldn't bet him then. But assuming that other stuff

(19:02):
doesn't happen, I'm gonna probably assume the streaming stuff is
a concern, but not a big enough one to keep
me away, and I'll probably end up playing him. So
in terms of a pure pick man, really really tough
kind of like the first time around, I think that
just a real chance of a close decision victory for
either guy. But I think the greater chance of a knockout,

(19:24):
especially with the greater chance for adjustments, also goes in
the hand of Alex here a man, I still think
it's kind of like a fifty to fifty years fight.
But I guess, for the sake of the podcast and
everything for an official prediction, I guess I'll go with
Alex and what the hell go with TKO. Maybe he
does actually line him up for some counter like I
was mentioning early on, But in terms of a betting perspective,

(19:46):
whether you're favoring Uncle iive or not, I just I
don't see how it's not dogg or pass. Again, maybe
it'll be a pass because Alex will show some bad
signs throughout fight week. But as of now, while the
streaming is a concern, there's not enough of a con
tarned to keep me away from him as of yet.
But again, we will see what happens the rest of
the week, because like, for example, when Israel went out

(20:07):
there and had that horrible press conference, I was on
Twitter saying, this dude wants to be anywhere like as
hard as not in and everyone is going, no, no,
you're crazy. The arm chairs I called it, So I
was like, have you never watched fight week, Like, seriously,
go watch clips from any other fight week and tell
me this is like the same human being in that body.
It was so apparent. So yes, we do get sometimes

(20:30):
incredibly apparent noticeable changes like that. That's what I'm looking
for throughout the rest of the fight week. But as
of now again, ficial prediction will be Alex Pajera. And
as for my betting analysis, dog or pass if of
course you want, the official betstoes can be found over
again at patreon dot com. Slash Furies Fight Picks also

(20:52):
have a bunch more content. They are written podcasts, cheat sheets,
wait analysis, tape, study notes, postfight podcasts, the es that
I mentioned, breaking down fight film. All that's available there
again Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks, as well
as the official bets. Again, we have several of the
up right now for UFC three twenty one, a little

(21:13):
bit on data White Contenders Series earlier. Nothing to write
home about though, but we do also have the big
PFL card on Friday, so a lot of MMA action
here to go around. We were on a really big
win streak recently, did not do good on the last UFC,
so hopefully we get back on track on this one
here though, Like I said, all the official official bets

(21:33):
can be found over on the Patreon. Also, remember this
podcast well, it does go up on free platforms like Spotify,
and that it always goes up earliest on the Patreon.
It's still free over there, and sometimes it's the only
place that goes up on a given week. Still free
even in that case as well, So check out the
Patreon even if you just want the free content, but
otherwise hopefully see you over there either way, though, good

(21:55):
luck on all of your bets. Hopefully lea you profit.
I'm look at Fury and thank you for listening.