Episode Transcript
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Speaker 3 (00:00):
Greetings.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC Baku. That is Jamal Hill against Khalil Rountree.
Great main event there actually a pretty fun Fight Night
card all things considered. The co main event is also
great Rafael Fitzi versus Ignacio Obahamondez. Curtis Blade's also on
the main card some other names. So I don't want
(00:23):
to jinx it, but those top two fights in particular.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Man, how how would those not be exciting? It shouldn't
even be just that one is exciting, It should be
both of them. I guess maybe someone decides to be
a grappler and just lay in praise, but seems pretty unlikely.
So as far as Fight Night events, actually looking forward
to this one a decent amount, So excited to talk
about it here on the podcast. Remember over on the
(00:50):
Patreon which is patreon dot com slash Furies Fight picks,
do you have a bunch more content including other fight
breakdowns as well as the official bets. We had five
MMA events that we bet on last week, went five
and zero on them, including the UFC, So a big
week there for double digit units.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Hopefully follow that up with another good week here. Do
have several bets already up now for three different MMA
events including this UFC, so be.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Adding more as well.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
We'll see how many we end up with the final tally,
but it is going to be another busy week. Remember
we don't just bet on the UFC cards. We bet
on several MMA events each and every week. All bets
are third party tracked and verified. Made almost one hundred
units last year, up hundreds plural long term, So check
out the records and everything else over again at patreon
(01:40):
dot com slash Furies Fight Picks. You can also get
the rest of my fight breakdowns for this card there,
as well as a bunch of other content for this week,
including the post fight show the after show analysis podcast.
But with that aside, let's get to the main event
breakdown here again, Jamal Hill against Khalil Rountree. The betting
have this one pretty much a pick him right now.
(02:02):
Rowntree is the slight favorite minus one twenty five. Comeback
on Hill is plus one ten. Originally it opened up
a little bit higher for Rountree. Money has somewhat steadily
come in on Hill. I do think that round Tree
is probably going to win the fight, and therefore I
think he should be favored, But I also don't think
(02:23):
he should be a big favorite here. I think that
a small ish favorite is about accurate for a couple
of reasons. One, I don't think Kalil Roundtree is a
great overall MMA fighter, but he is a very dangerous striker.
When he thought Alex's last fight, I pretty much nailed
(02:43):
that exact breakdown, start to finish.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Go back and listen to it.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
If you don't believe me, I said, Khalil Rowntree is
actually going to surprise people. He's going to be very
successful with some of his striking. Early on, it's going
to be a competitive fight. He may even be doing
well and winning it. But eventually his cardio is going
to get him going to slow down, and then Alex
is gonna finish him. Exactly what happened, literally to a t,
exactly what happened. And I bring that up not to brag,
(03:09):
but to say that if he loses this fight, it's
probably the exact same thing. Early on, while they're both fresh,
Khalil is the harder hitter. He's faster, he's more explosive,
he throws a greater variety of strikes as well. He's
again just the better technical striker, but also has the
better in tangibles with that speed, the power, and then
(03:30):
in terms of durability. Man, I don't know what the
hell happened to Hill's chin. He used to have a
great chin, one of the best in this division, and
then Alex seemed to crack it and then pretty much
seems to be dust now the way that Yeri was
hurting him and then ultimately finished him. I would say
that Khalil, with his single individual punches, hits harder than Yeri,
(03:52):
but not as hard as Alex. So Alex doing it,
it's like, okay, him doing a basically not one hit
or quitter, but dropped him and then you know, quickly
flurried up after that. But it was a one hit
to drop him, and it was kind of a glancing
shot almost. It was weird how it knocked him down.
But then for Yeerie to do it like he did
and hard him multiple times. Yeri's a volume guy. He
(04:14):
hurts guys by landing a chain of punches and kicks
and knees and whatever else he.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Can throw at them.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
He's not so much a one hit or quitter type
of guy, and to see him hurt Hill the way
he did, Hill's chin just seems to be softened up.
So Khalil definitely hits harder than Yeri. And if Yeari
is hurting him like that, if Khalil's hitting him, I
think he's going to be hurting him so early on,
and by early on, I mean the first two rounds,
because that's always about how long Khalil can go for.
(04:43):
I think that it's going to be not one way traffic,
maybe not necessarily, you know, him just completely thrashing Hill,
although it wouldn't be shocking here. I mean if he
just goes out there, just marches him down, starts landing
big shots, and knocks him out, it wouldn't surprise me.
But I am expecting something a bit more competitive than
that for the first two rounds, and I think he
has a decent shot to stop Hill in the first
(05:05):
half of his fight. However, if he does not and
we go two round three, especially round four and five,
Khalil consistently has been a guy who slows down after
just a couple of rounds, and this is a five rounder.
Now you could say, okay, well, maybe he'll have better
cardio for a five rounder, but a couple of reasons
why I don't think that's going to happen. Obviously, we
(05:25):
saw against Alex that wasn't the case, and I know
they kind of scramble to put that fight together. You
can make excuses for him, but it was consistent with
the trends we've seen from him in the past.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
But two, his striking style.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
Is just not one that lends itself to having good
cardio down the stretch. Again, he's a fast, explosive, powerful striker.
If you've ever trained, you can hit a punching bag
or even be insparring, or just be hitting pads with
your coach. And if you're just throwing light, little short punches,
maybe not exploding fully or definitely not throwing full power,
(05:57):
your cardio will be at.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
A certain level.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
And then if you're throwing essentially full power into everything,
your cardio just drops off a cliff. Your arms get tired,
your heart stumps pumping too fast, you have trouble breathing.
It's a totally different ballgame. Well, Khalil's style is basically
just the ladder there. He can only throw with explosive
speed and power. That's his whole game. Yes, he has
a good technique, but he doesn't really measure it. He's
(06:21):
always throwing fast and hard. So I just don't see
him being the type of guy who's going to pay
himself for five rounds. So I think he is going
to come out and try to be basically making Jamal's
head fly off into the front row. So again, early on,
I think he is favored to be winning the striking,
and I think that he actually has a decent shot
(06:42):
to knock out Hill, especially with how Hill's chin has been.
But man, if you go to round four, round five,
I mean, unless he has a comfortable lead at that
point or somehow his cardio is dramatically better, Like this
literally could be a case where it's like, as soon
as round two ends, this man is just basically toast.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Like maybe he is an.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Outside shot shot at winning, but I mean, this is
a fight where his chances significantly.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Go down if we see around three.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Now, for his sake, I would hope that he improves
his cardial, but you know, thirty five and all, this
probably not particularly likely. I will say one thing that's
kind of odd about him is his mentality after the
Alex fight, what I would like to see and expect
to see from a fighter. There is then being like, man,
I was in there for two rounds. It's one of
the best, most dangerous guys in the world. I was
(07:30):
doing so well before then eventually got me and I
tired out, and I'm so close to now being the best.
I just got to work on some things and really
double down my focus and then I'll be there.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
That's not what he's been saying.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
He's been saying Steff like, oh man, it was such
a fun, great experience. And I apparently he personally paid
Alex money to fly out because he wanted to have
Alex watching him in the crowd for this fight. Like
it's kind of weird how he was just idolized Alex
after getting his ass beat by him. Again, I'd like
him to be like, man, I was so close to
(08:04):
beating him. This is even more motivating to go back
to the drawing board. But it seems almost like the opposite,
Like it seems like he's just accepted that he's not
actually one of the best like that, and then you'll
hear and sometimes and other interviews he does try to
say that, oh no, I was close, but you can't
have it both ways.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
You can't be this weird.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
It's not even like humble, it's almost like submissive that
he's been and then also be like, oh man, I'm
so close to beating him. It's one or the other,
and it seems to be unfortunately the worst of the two.
So you know, if he was maybe showing more of
the other mentality, maybe expecting him, maybe we actually get
an improved Khalil, But I don't think we will. I'm
actually expecting pretty much the same Khalil that we've always seen.
(08:43):
And again, I think he has a certain style here
to potentially knock out Hill.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
But it is worth.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Noting that Khalil has well a not the best resume
in the UFC in terms of his wins, but also
not that great in terms of his loss either. If
you go through his record, he had a little bit
of a win streak before he faced Alex he won
five fights in a row, But right before that five
fights win streak, he was on a one in three
(09:11):
streak where he got KAO by Johnny Walker in two minutes.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
That's awful.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
He beat Eric Anders, who he has some name value
with fans, But man, I've been saying since the beginning
of this time, this dude is not that good. Oh
he played at Alabama, so that means he's a good fighter.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
No, that means nothing. So he was in the NFL
or something.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
He couldn't even make the NFL, and yet everyone just
clings to that for whatever reason. So I actually don't
put much stock into that win at all, certainly not,
you know, in terms of looking at like man, these
are elite type fighters. He's beat or guys who are
even close to Hills level. He doesn't really have many,
but Eric Anders is actually probably one of his best wins,
(09:50):
as sad as that is. But then after that he
loses to Juan Kudalaba again knocked out there in about
a couple of minutes. Again bad loss, not just the
way it happened, but who was to Then he loses
a decision next fight against Marchi Proshnio. Not a good,
good loss, but you know, at least it wasn't by
knockout there. But then he goes on his win streak,
(10:10):
so it's like, okay, let's see finally fights maybe some
you know, lower level guys, but works his way up
to some better guys.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Again right, well, not so much.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
He beats Modestus Buccaskis, then Carl Roberson, then beats quote
unquote Dustin Jacoby. That was a robbery. I don't care
what anybody says. Then he beats Chris Daucas and then
Anthony Smith. Like that's his win streak to a title shot.
That I'm sorry, that's like one of the worst title
(10:39):
fight win streaks in like UFC history, Like there's been
guys who have gotten title shots off for losses and
stuff and that's bad whatever, But to be on a
five fight win streak into a title shot and that's
your your resume, Like, who's the best guy that win streak?
Speaker 3 (10:54):
The corpse of Anthony Smith? Like what?
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And so Alex was a massive step up, but again
he still did do well early on. Jamal Hill also
a massive step up. I think he again can do
at least well early on. But here's the thing. He's
also been knocked out by guys like Johnny Walker and
Juan Kudalaba. So if those guys can knock him out,
absolutely Hill can. I know Alex took till he was
(11:19):
tired in round four. That doesn't mean that Jamal has
to get him tired in order to knock him out.
He can knock him out early as well as they've
seen other worst fighters do. So this is tricky because,
on one hand, if I had if you can say, okay,
the fight is only going to be two rounds, it's
capped at ten minutes, Okay, then I would actually favor
(11:40):
Kalila decent amount, even though obviously he could still get
knocked out. But the fact that it is five rounds
and not that Hill has had the best fight a
Q or defensive anything, footwork, hand parrying, posture, chinned down.
I mean, the dude's defense is horrible. He doesn't do
any of the right stuff. But he might just be
(12:01):
able to survive for two rounds and then essentially automatically
win the fight. So it's tricky for me that on
one hand, in terms of looking at the skill versus
skill matchup here, it very clearly favors Khalil, And yet
you have all these other intangibles. His chin, I mean,
neither of them seem to have good chins, the fact
that he's faced a very low level of competition for
the most part, the cardio issues.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
It's like, on one hand.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You really want to favor him, and then on the
other you're like, man, this fight should be not necessarily
a pick him, but he should only be a smallish favorite.
In terms of wrestling and grapping. None of these guys
shoot takedowns or try to grapple. That's obviously their weakness,
so I don't expect that to change here. I mean,
that'd be pretty surprising, to be honest. They've both been
in matchups where it's the most obvious situation where they
(12:46):
should be actually trying to shoot takedowns if they want
to give themselves the best chance to winning their facing
basically pure strikers, and they still don't.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
So I don't expect takedowns here.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
I think we see a striker versus striker matchup for
every round of it, as long as it lasts. From
a betting perspective, it's tricky. I would lean towards Khalil,
but I'm not in love with it. I would say
this though, from a live betting perspective, there's definitely potential here.
If Khalil goes out there and is cruising in the
first two rounds but does not get the finish, you're
(13:17):
gonna see Hill as a huge underdog. In live betting,
potentially just massive and not to say that if it ends,
if round two ends, it's just an automatic win for
Khalil because he can still get or excuse for Hill,
because he can still get knocked out himself. He could
still get leg kicked to new bolivion. You know, there
is one way that this fight could go where Khalil's
(13:40):
landing a bunch of leg kicks early on and Jamal
is not good at checking them historically, and we see
Khalil actually go out there and pummel his legs, build
up a bunch of damage on the legs, and even
if he doesn't get the stoppage in the first two rounds,
he actually has damaged Hill enough that Hill is actually
in dire streets come round three, and now the car
you wishes for Khalil are actually not as detrimental. So
(14:03):
that's also a possibility here. But again is that the
most likely, probably not most likely, what happens is if
the fight does not end the first two rounds, Khalil
is probably going to lose it unless he's again just
absolutely crushed Hill. And so from a live betting perspective,
not to say it's free money or a guaranteed win.
But I mean, man, if they're hanging a big underdog
(14:25):
price on hill, whether you like Khalil pre fight or not,
probably kind of owe it to yourself to at least
take a shot on that big dog money. So this
is one of those fights where it does just seem
like such a no brainer if it goes a certain
length that now live betting becomes a significant factor. Historically,
what I've mentioned these spots, they have for the most
part played out pretty accurately, not one hundred percent, but
(14:48):
this is one that seems pretty clear cut in that regard. Again,
Khalil is just a consistent two round not necessarily gas
or he doesn't always completely gas. After the first couple
of rounds significantly slows and then gases. Also worth noting
what finished him against Alex in the fourth round. It
was not head strikes. I know he took a head
shot or two in the final flurry there. It was
(15:11):
the body shots that stopped him one hundred percent, and
not to say it was a quick job from the
body shots, but it was essentially a pain stoppers where
he got hit in the solar plexus and then again
in the side and sat himself down because he didn't
want to take any more damage. So we've seen him
get knocked out legitimately put out cold. We've seen him
get TKO with strikes like against Wan, and then we've
(15:33):
also now seen him go down two body shots and
fold up shop as well against Alex, So we've seen
him finish in a variety of ways from strikes. I
think if he is going to lose his fight, it
will also be by stoppage in returns. So I think,
no matter how it goes, we're going to see a
knockout here. I do favor Khalil to get it done
(15:53):
in the first half. I don't favor him a ton,
but I do think he should be a smallish favorite,
and he will be my official prediction KO, and that
will do it for this free edition of the podcast.
Remember the rest of my fight breakdowns are available over
on patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. You can
also get a bunch of other pre and postfight content,
(16:15):
including the post fight podcast there as well. And most importantly,
we have several bets up right now for this card
and more went five and oh on the five MMA
events last week had more than five bets, but we
just won on the five events. That's for the five
and okay, we actually had a couple dozen bets last
week all in all, and this week we'll probably have
(16:36):
at least a dozen bets by the time it's all sudden,
said and done. Two already have again several of them
up right now. Made almost one hundred units last year.
Up hundreds plural, long term, all third party tracked and verified.
You can check the records, pass bets, everything over on
the page as well as again all the rest of
that content at patreon dot com slash Furies fight Picks.
(16:59):
Also check me out on socials. I'm either at Luca
Fiury l U c A f U r y or
at Fury's Fight Picks. Otherwise, I hope you join us
over on the Patreon for a bunch of that other content.
Good luck on all of your bets this weekend. I'm
Luca Fiury, and thank you for listening.
Greetings.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC Baku. That is Jamal Hill against Khalil Rountree.
Great main event there actually a pretty fun Fight Night
card all things considered. The co main event is also
great Rafael Fitzi versus Ignacio Obahamondez. Curtis Blade's also on
the main card some other names. So I don't want
(00:23):
to jinx it, but those top two fights in particular.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Man, how how would those not be exciting? It shouldn't
even be just that one is exciting, It should be
both of them. I guess maybe someone decides to be
a grappler and just lay in praise, but seems pretty unlikely.
So as far as Fight Night events, actually looking forward
to this one a decent amount, So excited to talk
about it here on the podcast. Remember over on the
(00:50):
Patreon which is patreon dot com slash Furies Fight picks,
do you have a bunch more content including other fight
breakdowns as well as the official bets. We had five
MMA events that we bet on last week, went five
and zero on them, including the UFC, So a big
week there for double digit units.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Hopefully follow that up with another good week here. Do
have several bets already up now for three different MMA
events including this UFC, so be.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
Adding more as well.
Speaker 1 (01:19):
We'll see how many we end up with the final tally,
but it is going to be another busy week. Remember
we don't just bet on the UFC cards. We bet
on several MMA events each and every week. All bets
are third party tracked and verified. Made almost one hundred
units last year, up hundreds plural long term, So check
out the records and everything else over again at patreon
(01:40):
dot com slash Furies Fight Picks. You can also get
the rest of my fight breakdowns for this card there,
as well as a bunch of other content for this week,
including the post fight show the after show analysis podcast.
But with that aside, let's get to the main event
breakdown here again, Jamal Hill against Khalil Rountree. The betting
have this one pretty much a pick him right now.
(02:02):
Rowntree is the slight favorite minus one twenty five. Comeback
on Hill is plus one ten. Originally it opened up
a little bit higher for Rountree. Money has somewhat steadily
come in on Hill. I do think that round Tree
is probably going to win the fight, and therefore I
think he should be favored, But I also don't think
(02:23):
he should be a big favorite here. I think that
a small ish favorite is about accurate for a couple
of reasons. One, I don't think Kalil Roundtree is a
great overall MMA fighter, but he is a very dangerous striker.
When he thought Alex's last fight, I pretty much nailed
(02:43):
that exact breakdown, start to finish.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Go back and listen to it.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
If you don't believe me, I said, Khalil Rowntree is
actually going to surprise people. He's going to be very
successful with some of his striking. Early on, it's going
to be a competitive fight. He may even be doing
well and winning it. But eventually his cardio is going
to get him going to slow down, and then Alex
is gonna finish him. Exactly what happened, literally to a t,
exactly what happened. And I bring that up not to brag,
(03:09):
but to say that if he loses this fight, it's
probably the exact same thing. Early on, while they're both fresh,
Khalil is the harder hitter. He's faster, he's more explosive,
he throws a greater variety of strikes as well. He's
again just the better technical striker, but also has the
better in tangibles with that speed, the power, and then
(03:30):
in terms of durability. Man, I don't know what the
hell happened to Hill's chin. He used to have a
great chin, one of the best in this division, and
then Alex seemed to crack it and then pretty much
seems to be dust now the way that Yeri was
hurting him and then ultimately finished him. I would say
that Khalil, with his single individual punches, hits harder than Yeri,
(03:52):
but not as hard as Alex. So Alex doing it,
it's like, okay, him doing a basically not one hit
or quitter, but dropped him and then you know, quickly
flurried up after that. But it was a one hit
to drop him, and it was kind of a glancing
shot almost. It was weird how it knocked him down.
But then for Yeerie to do it like he did
and hard him multiple times. Yeri's a volume guy. He
(04:14):
hurts guys by landing a chain of punches and kicks
and knees and whatever else he.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Can throw at them.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
He's not so much a one hit or quitter type
of guy, and to see him hurt Hill the way
he did, Hill's chin just seems to be softened up.
So Khalil definitely hits harder than Yeri. And if Yeari
is hurting him like that, if Khalil's hitting him, I
think he's going to be hurting him so early on,
and by early on, I mean the first two rounds,
because that's always about how long Khalil can go for.
(04:43):
I think that it's going to be not one way traffic,
maybe not necessarily, you know, him just completely thrashing Hill,
although it wouldn't be shocking here. I mean if he
just goes out there, just marches him down, starts landing
big shots, and knocks him out, it wouldn't surprise me.
But I am expecting something a bit more competitive than
that for the first two rounds, and I think he
has a decent shot to stop Hill in the first
(05:05):
half of his fight. However, if he does not and
we go two round three, especially round four and five,
Khalil consistently has been a guy who slows down after
just a couple of rounds, and this is a five rounder.
Now you could say, okay, well, maybe he'll have better
cardio for a five rounder, but a couple of reasons
why I don't think that's going to happen. Obviously, we
(05:25):
saw against Alex that wasn't the case, and I know
they kind of scramble to put that fight together. You
can make excuses for him, but it was consistent with
the trends we've seen from him in the past.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
But two, his striking style.
Speaker 1 (05:37):
Is just not one that lends itself to having good
cardio down the stretch. Again, he's a fast, explosive, powerful striker.
If you've ever trained, you can hit a punching bag
or even be insparring, or just be hitting pads with
your coach. And if you're just throwing light, little short punches,
maybe not exploding fully or definitely not throwing full power,
(05:57):
your cardio will be at.
Speaker 3 (05:58):
A certain level.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
And then if you're throwing essentially full power into everything,
your cardio just drops off a cliff. Your arms get tired,
your heart stumps pumping too fast, you have trouble breathing.
It's a totally different ballgame. Well, Khalil's style is basically
just the ladder there. He can only throw with explosive
speed and power. That's his whole game. Yes, he has
a good technique, but he doesn't really measure it. He's
(06:21):
always throwing fast and hard. So I just don't see
him being the type of guy who's going to pay
himself for five rounds. So I think he is going
to come out and try to be basically making Jamal's
head fly off into the front row. So again, early on,
I think he is favored to be winning the striking,
and I think that he actually has a decent shot
(06:42):
to knock out Hill, especially with how Hill's chin has been.
But man, if you go to round four, round five,
I mean, unless he has a comfortable lead at that
point or somehow his cardio is dramatically better, Like this
literally could be a case where it's like, as soon
as round two ends, this man is just basically toast.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
Like maybe he is an.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Outside shot shot at winning, but I mean, this is
a fight where his chances significantly.
Speaker 3 (07:05):
Go down if we see around three.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Now, for his sake, I would hope that he improves
his cardial, but you know, thirty five and all, this
probably not particularly likely. I will say one thing that's
kind of odd about him is his mentality after the
Alex fight, what I would like to see and expect
to see from a fighter. There is then being like, man,
I was in there for two rounds. It's one of
the best, most dangerous guys in the world. I was
(07:30):
doing so well before then eventually got me and I
tired out, and I'm so close to now being the best.
I just got to work on some things and really
double down my focus and then I'll be there.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
That's not what he's been saying.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
He's been saying Steff like, oh man, it was such
a fun, great experience. And I apparently he personally paid
Alex money to fly out because he wanted to have
Alex watching him in the crowd for this fight. Like
it's kind of weird how he was just idolized Alex
after getting his ass beat by him. Again, I'd like
him to be like, man, I was so close to
(08:04):
beating him. This is even more motivating to go back
to the drawing board. But it seems almost like the opposite,
Like it seems like he's just accepted that he's not
actually one of the best like that, and then you'll
hear and sometimes and other interviews he does try to
say that, oh no, I was close, but you can't
have it both ways.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
You can't be this weird.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
It's not even like humble, it's almost like submissive that
he's been and then also be like, oh man, I'm
so close to beating him. It's one or the other,
and it seems to be unfortunately the worst of the two.
So you know, if he was maybe showing more of
the other mentality, maybe expecting him, maybe we actually get
an improved Khalil, But I don't think we will. I'm
actually expecting pretty much the same Khalil that we've always seen.
(08:43):
And again, I think he has a certain style here
to potentially knock out Hill.
Speaker 3 (08:49):
But it is worth.
Speaker 1 (08:50):
Noting that Khalil has well a not the best resume
in the UFC in terms of his wins, but also
not that great in terms of his loss either. If
you go through his record, he had a little bit
of a win streak before he faced Alex he won
five fights in a row, But right before that five
fights win streak, he was on a one in three
(09:11):
streak where he got KAO by Johnny Walker in two minutes.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
That's awful.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
He beat Eric Anders, who he has some name value
with fans, But man, I've been saying since the beginning
of this time, this dude is not that good. Oh
he played at Alabama, so that means he's a good fighter.
Speaker 3 (09:26):
No, that means nothing. So he was in the NFL
or something.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
He couldn't even make the NFL, and yet everyone just
clings to that for whatever reason. So I actually don't
put much stock into that win at all, certainly not,
you know, in terms of looking at like man, these
are elite type fighters. He's beat or guys who are
even close to Hills level. He doesn't really have many,
but Eric Anders is actually probably one of his best wins,
(09:50):
as sad as that is. But then after that he
loses to Juan Kudalaba again knocked out there in about
a couple of minutes. Again bad loss, not just the
way it happened, but who was to Then he loses
a decision next fight against Marchi Proshnio. Not a good,
good loss, but you know, at least it wasn't by
knockout there. But then he goes on his win streak,
(10:10):
so it's like, okay, let's see finally fights maybe some
you know, lower level guys, but works his way up
to some better guys.
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Again right, well, not so much.
Speaker 1 (10:18):
He beats Modestus Buccaskis, then Carl Roberson, then beats quote
unquote Dustin Jacoby. That was a robbery. I don't care
what anybody says. Then he beats Chris Daucas and then
Anthony Smith. Like that's his win streak to a title shot.
That I'm sorry, that's like one of the worst title
(10:39):
fight win streaks in like UFC history, Like there's been
guys who have gotten title shots off for losses and
stuff and that's bad whatever, But to be on a
five fight win streak into a title shot and that's
your your resume, Like, who's the best guy that win streak?
Speaker 3 (10:54):
The corpse of Anthony Smith? Like what?
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And so Alex was a massive step up, but again
he still did do well early on. Jamal Hill also
a massive step up. I think he again can do
at least well early on. But here's the thing. He's
also been knocked out by guys like Johnny Walker and
Juan Kudalaba. So if those guys can knock him out,
absolutely Hill can. I know Alex took till he was
(11:19):
tired in round four. That doesn't mean that Jamal has
to get him tired in order to knock him out.
He can knock him out early as well as they've
seen other worst fighters do. So this is tricky because,
on one hand, if I had if you can say, okay,
the fight is only going to be two rounds, it's
capped at ten minutes, Okay, then I would actually favor
(11:40):
Kalila decent amount, even though obviously he could still get
knocked out. But the fact that it is five rounds
and not that Hill has had the best fight a
Q or defensive anything, footwork, hand parrying, posture, chinned down.
I mean, the dude's defense is horrible. He doesn't do
any of the right stuff. But he might just be
(12:01):
able to survive for two rounds and then essentially automatically
win the fight. So it's tricky for me that on
one hand, in terms of looking at the skill versus
skill matchup here, it very clearly favors Khalil, And yet
you have all these other intangibles. His chin, I mean,
neither of them seem to have good chins, the fact
that he's faced a very low level of competition for
the most part, the cardio issues.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
It's like, on one hand.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
You really want to favor him, and then on the
other you're like, man, this fight should be not necessarily
a pick him, but he should only be a smallish favorite.
In terms of wrestling and grapping. None of these guys
shoot takedowns or try to grapple. That's obviously their weakness,
so I don't expect that to change here. I mean,
that'd be pretty surprising, to be honest. They've both been
in matchups where it's the most obvious situation where they
(12:46):
should be actually trying to shoot takedowns if they want
to give themselves the best chance to winning their facing
basically pure strikers, and they still don't.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
So I don't expect takedowns here.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
I think we see a striker versus striker matchup for
every round of it, as long as it lasts. From
a betting perspective, it's tricky. I would lean towards Khalil,
but I'm not in love with it. I would say
this though, from a live betting perspective, there's definitely potential here.
If Khalil goes out there and is cruising in the
first two rounds but does not get the finish, you're
(13:17):
gonna see Hill as a huge underdog. In live betting,
potentially just massive and not to say that if it ends,
if round two ends, it's just an automatic win for
Khalil because he can still get or excuse for Hill,
because he can still get knocked out himself. He could
still get leg kicked to new bolivion. You know, there
is one way that this fight could go where Khalil's
(13:40):
landing a bunch of leg kicks early on and Jamal
is not good at checking them historically, and we see
Khalil actually go out there and pummel his legs, build
up a bunch of damage on the legs, and even
if he doesn't get the stoppage in the first two rounds,
he actually has damaged Hill enough that Hill is actually
in dire streets come round three, and now the car
you wishes for Khalil are actually not as detrimental. So
(14:03):
that's also a possibility here. But again is that the
most likely, probably not most likely, what happens is if
the fight does not end the first two rounds, Khalil
is probably going to lose it unless he's again just
absolutely crushed Hill. And so from a live betting perspective,
not to say it's free money or a guaranteed win.
But I mean, man, if they're hanging a big underdog
(14:25):
price on hill, whether you like Khalil pre fight or not,
probably kind of owe it to yourself to at least
take a shot on that big dog money. So this
is one of those fights where it does just seem
like such a no brainer if it goes a certain
length that now live betting becomes a significant factor. Historically,
what I've mentioned these spots, they have for the most
part played out pretty accurately, not one hundred percent, but
(14:48):
this is one that seems pretty clear cut in that regard. Again,
Khalil is just a consistent two round not necessarily gas
or he doesn't always completely gas. After the first couple
of rounds significantly slows and then gases. Also worth noting
what finished him against Alex in the fourth round. It
was not head strikes. I know he took a head
shot or two in the final flurry there. It was
(15:11):
the body shots that stopped him one hundred percent, and
not to say it was a quick job from the
body shots, but it was essentially a pain stoppers where
he got hit in the solar plexus and then again
in the side and sat himself down because he didn't
want to take any more damage. So we've seen him
get knocked out legitimately put out cold. We've seen him
get TKO with strikes like against Wan, and then we've
(15:33):
also now seen him go down two body shots and
fold up shop as well against Alex, So we've seen
him finish in a variety of ways from strikes. I
think if he is going to lose his fight, it
will also be by stoppage in returns. So I think,
no matter how it goes, we're going to see a
knockout here. I do favor Khalil to get it done
(15:53):
in the first half. I don't favor him a ton,
but I do think he should be a smallish favorite,
and he will be my official prediction KO, and that
will do it for this free edition of the podcast.
Remember the rest of my fight breakdowns are available over
on patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. You can
also get a bunch of other pre and postfight content,
(16:15):
including the post fight podcast there as well. And most importantly,
we have several bets up right now for this card
and more went five and oh on the five MMA
events last week had more than five bets, but we
just won on the five events. That's for the five
and okay, we actually had a couple dozen bets last
week all in all, and this week we'll probably have
(16:36):
at least a dozen bets by the time it's all sudden,
said and done. Two already have again several of them
up right now. Made almost one hundred units last year.
Up hundreds plural, long term, all third party tracked and verified.
You can check the records, pass bets, everything over on
the page as well as again all the rest of
that content at patreon dot com slash Furies fight Picks.
(16:59):
Also check me out on socials. I'm either at Luca
Fiury l U c A f U r y or
at Fury's Fight Picks. Otherwise, I hope you join us
over on the Patreon for a bunch of that other content.
Good luck on all of your bets this weekend. I'm
Luca Fiury, and thank you for listening.
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