UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Hernandez Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm Luka Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC Vegas one nine that is headlined by unfortunately
Roman Delitee against Anthony Fluffy Hernandez. Not a great main event,
not a great card overall, especially back to back after
what they rolled out last week. Not some strong offerings
from the UFC lately, although as I always point out,

(00:24):
you know, priority number one, at least for me, is
to profit on these events. Thankfully, the official bets did
very well last week. Maybe it will be a repeat
this week with a bad card but good results for
the bets. As I did say going into last week's event,
sometimes these events actually are better from a betting perspective
than some of the bigger events, because say you have

(00:45):
a Dustin Poier competing, well, everyone's familiar with his game,
there's infinite amounts of tape out there that you can
easily access, and he's probably gonna go against someone who
also has a bunch of tape similar fashion. And on
the flip side, if you have a card like this,
we have lesser known fighters. We got to go on
like your Russian link from the dark web to get

(01:07):
some of these fight footage out there on that. On
that sense, it can actually be better from a betting
perspective because people a are already not familiar with the fighters,
so that already presents a better edge if you are
familiar with them. But b, if you actually do your
tape study and actually are familiar with the specific matchup
and do your due diligence, you're gonna have a huge

(01:28):
edge over the average person, And so you can actually
oftentimes get bigger edges on these smaller cards. So I'm
always kind of of two minds when they roll around.
On one hand, I'm like, ah, man, this sucks to
waste my Saturday night on this. But on the other hand,
I'm like, well, probably on average has a better chance
of being improfitable, especially a very profitable event. So at

(01:52):
the end of the day, that is what I care
about more so, I guess I should be kind of happy,
I guess in the end with these. But it is
always just surprising this see the new lows that the
UFC continues to reach these days with the cards they're
putting out. But nonetheless, you do have a card to
break down here, specifically the main event here on this
free podcast. Remember do you have a bunch more content

(02:13):
over on the Patreon that is Patreon dot com slash
Furies Fight Picks. Also, this free podcast is available there.
It's still free there, but it goes up earlier than
any other platform. Some weeks that's the only place that
goes up, just the way it ends up shaking out,
but usually it's at least a day, if not multiple
days earlier then say Spotify and the like. So for example,

(02:35):
this week it's going up Tuesday on the Patreon for free.
To go up on other platforms maybe Wednesday at the
absolute earliest, so always earliest and sometimes exclusively available, but
always free on the Patreon again Patreon dot com slash
Furies Fight Picks. Aside from that, there is a bunch
of paid content, including the rest of the fight breakdowns

(02:55):
for the card, including in podcast forum as well as written.
There's all so the cheat sheet articles, staff picks, way
in analysis, tape, study notes, Lucas lecture, fantasy, fight forecast,
post fight show, a bunch of other stuff over there
as well, as, of course, most importantly of all, the
official bets. Like I said, had a good week last

(03:16):
time out on the very poor UFC card, actually won
all of the MME events that we bet last week
three and oh so that was nice, made around seven
units of profit there. So hopefully on another week very
week week UFC card this time around it will be
another profitable one. But man, I cannot lie in terms
of just fan perspective, boy, this one is not great stuff.

(03:42):
So just like I said about last week's I really
hope that the bets are profitable, so at least I
get paid to watch that slop boy, would be depressing
to lose and basically have to pay essentially to watch it.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
Same thing goes this week. Boy.

Speaker 2 (03:57):
I pray to God the bets win on the speak
of all because man, spending my Saturday night and paying
lots of money to do it, to lose on fights
like this would be oh boy, get the news handy
if that's the case. So hopefully fingers crossed knock on
wood it will be a well man stuff knocked over

(04:19):
on my shelf.

Speaker 1 (04:20):
So maybe that's not a good.

Speaker 2 (04:21):
Side of things to come, but knock on wood, hopefully
it will be a profitable event for the bets. Check
it all out again over and patreon dot com Slash
Furies fight picks. As for this main event breakdown Again,
we have Roman dealites taken on Anthony Hernandez as for
the betting odds. Hernandez good size favorite here. Best price

(04:45):
on him minus three thirty, best price on Dalite plus
two seventy five. Now, I have to admit, when Dalite
came over to the UFC, I was really not impressed
by him. I thought he was gonna wash out fairly quickly.
He has improved a lot more than I thought. He
has had some unexpected performances. I still don't think he

(05:06):
is elite or a future champion or anything like that,
but I have to give him credit. He has definitely
improved and done much better than I ever.

Speaker 1 (05:15):
Thought he would.

Speaker 2 (05:16):
That said, the book on him is kind of somewhat
the same that it was earlier in his UFC career
when I was unimpressed by him. He's just improved at
the stuff that he's good at, but the stuff that
he's bad at, the weaknesses he has are still his weaknesses.
His defense and durability not great cardio big concern. That

(05:37):
was also the case early in his career. That was
the biggest concern. He has improved that, but it's still
not very good and in terms of his wrestling, not
really existent for the most part offensively or defensively. So
on the feet, he has some power. If he lands,
he can hurt you. He's good size for the division,

(05:59):
six foot two, huge or anything, but a good size.
There's a lot of middleweights who are like that six
foot one ish kind of area or a six foot two,
but they're kind of leaner or lankier than him, or
just not as lean and muscular. So he's a good
size for the division. He's decently athletic, has some power,
but beyond that, he really just has a submission game.

(06:19):
There's really not anything else to his skill set. Doesn't have,
like I said, great durability or defense, doesn't have the cardio,
doesn't have the wrestling, so not great at getting on
top unless you have really bad wrestling yourself. So usually
he's playing on the bottom or trying to scramble. He
just has sort of an incomplete, disjointed game. Now, if

(06:40):
you're facing the Anthony Smiths, the Kevin Hollins of the world, okay, yeah,
you can go out there and you can beat those
guys because they're extremely exceedingly flawed. But as you start
to move up the ranks. As you take on the
better levels of competition, you're gonna not just lose, you're
gonna lose badly. And so I do think a bad

(07:00):
loss is in his future. You look at his record.
He hasn't beat anybody particularly good, So I do think
a bad loss is.

Speaker 1 (07:06):
Coming for him.

Speaker 2 (07:07):
Obviously he's a good sized underdog here, so in all
likelihood he probably will lose. I'm not sure this is
the type of fight that's really going to be that
bad of a loss, though. Just the way that Hernandez
tends to fight, he's kind of the polar opposite of Delitee.
He starts out not necessarily slow. He has had certainly
performances where he starts out slow. But it's I don't know,

(07:30):
it's almost like it's hard to explain because you look
at like a slow starter like Max Holloway back in
the day.

Speaker 1 (07:36):
He's gotten better over time.

Speaker 2 (07:38):
He's not as slow as a starter, but back in
the day he used to be a really slow starter,
and he watch his fights like he just like doesn't
really do anything in the early going. Donald Throni another
guy perennial slow starter. It wasn't because like he was
struggling early, it was because he just wouldn't try to
do stuff.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
Hernandez. Sometimes, yes, he kind of is just.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
Slow because he doesn't really try, But it also seems
like it just takes a while for his game to
actually start being functional. Part of that is he is
not a great wrestler in the sense of take you
down and hold you down. He's take you down, you
get back up, take you down, you get back up,
and then sort of the rinse and repeat, tire you
out down the stretch. His cardio's good, it maintains down

(08:22):
the stretch, but then he tires out his opponents from
doing that rinsen, repeat routine. And this is different, of
course than say a chain wrestler, like say it kuld Beb,
for example, who would go for the takedown fail, but
keep trying, keep trying, keep trying, and eventually get you down.
But then once he got you down, you would actually
hold you down and maintain position.

Speaker 1 (08:41):
It's not Anthony Hernandez.

Speaker 2 (08:43):
He's better at getting the takedown with the first try
maybe the second follow up, but he's just not great
at holding them down. But that does kind of work
to his favorite to an extent, because like I said,
they end up getting tired out by going up and
down over and over again and just fatiguing themselves by
doing this, so they kind of end up shooting themselves
in the foot. It almost actually be better in a way

(09:03):
to just be held down or look for better spots
to try to escape and not just get taken down repeatedly.
And so he starts out, like I said, not necessarily slow,
because sometimes will be aggressive early on. It just his
game takes a bit of time to get going because
he has to kind of wear down his opponent. Or
then you have Delicea on the flip side, who starts

(09:24):
out strong, fast and then tires out regardless of what
his opponent does. So you have, in the sense of Hernandez,
you have Delite's game is kind of playing right into
his where he's going to tire out.

Speaker 1 (09:38):
No matter what.

Speaker 2 (09:38):
And then Hernandez is a style that should actually make
him tire out even quicker. But then Delite's game doesn't,
or as I say, Hernande's game early on doesn't really
play quite into Delite's game, as you normally would get
in this situation with a general type of slow starter,
where you'd be like, oh, that's actually going to be
really good for Delite because he can work his game

(10:00):
without really having to worry about much early on while
he's fresh. But that's not true because again, Hernandez is
still going to be shooting the takedowns and trying them,
and he's probably going to be getting them and probably
going to be starting to wear down Dalite from even
the early going. So I've seen a lot of people
on Twitter talking about how Dalite is going to start
out so strong and he's probably just going to dummy

(10:22):
Dummy or Hernandez from the start. I'm not sure I
agree with that. I do think certainly early going is
going to be his best shot in the fight in
terms of whether it's winning or just say he goes
on to lose a decision and it's say three rounds
to two or something. The first two rounds are obviously
going to be his best I'd be surprised if that
was not the case. But the thing is he might

(10:43):
just go out there and be losing even early on.
He might just be getting taken down, clinched, etc. Because again,
he doesn't have strong takedown defense as it is now.
He can scramble, he can threaten with his submissions, but
sometimes allows him to get back up. Like you look
at say the Phil Hawes fight, he actually messes up
Phil's legacy, like hurt his knee with a submission attempt
on the ground caused Phil to actually back up and

(11:05):
kind of stumble away standing that allowed Delitzi to get
back to his feet, and then shortly after he actually
knocks about standing. So he will sometimes actually get back
to his feet just by threatening with submission attempts and
the like, but again it's against lower levels of opposition. Now,
the concern with Hernandez, it's not so much with the
submission attempts or submission threats from Dalitze. It's actually more

(11:28):
about him getting hurt. He's been hurt over and over
and over in his fights. Now, yes, he is resilient,
he has great heart. He fights on Weather's the storm
and has again the good cardio and everything down the stretch,
but he still gets hurt a lot early on, and
that's playing with fire and eventually it's going to catch
up to him. And maybe this fight actually is the

(11:48):
one that would not surprise me, like if he goes
out there just gets caught with something and hurt. Okay,
that's not shocking to me if Delite does that despite
him being a big underdog. Just considering again, Alitz, we
know he's strongest in the first couple of rounds, and
Hernandez he is not necessarily a slow starter, but struggles

(12:08):
the most early on, and his game doesn't get going
the most early on, even if he's trying to get
it going again. It's different than a slow starter like
a Seroni or a Holloway back in the day, who
just didn't do anything for the first round or so,
just like wouldn't throw strikes, would just sit there and stare,
and so I would be more concerned about again, Dalitse

(12:31):
just hitting him with something big and hurting him, versus
going out there and just like winning rounds because he's
just outstriking him and defending the takedowns and just overall
just beating him as a better fighter for the first
couple of rounds and being up two rounds to zero.
Something like that that I'm not expecting. I think if
he does well, if he wins, it's because he lands

(12:52):
some big moment of offense when he's again a guy
who has sort of a disjointed game, who has big
power at times as threatening submission in times as well,
going against guy Hernandez, who we've seen get hurt and
in trouble several times, including again early on most commonly.

Speaker 1 (13:10):
So I think the dynamic of the early versus late
is there.

Speaker 2 (13:15):
It's just different than what I've seen a lot of
talk from people on Twitter and stuff, where they seem
to think it's like, man, Dalitzi is gonna be up
two rounds of zero and then he's gonna gas, and
then it's gonna be three zero Hernandez. I just I
don't see it being that kind of fight. It could
be necessarily, it could end up being that, not necessarily
because of the reasons why people think where you know,

(13:38):
like I said, Delici just goes and out fights him
for ten minutes. But it could actually end up to
that point with Dalici being up two rounds of zero
because he hurts Hernandez. He hurts Hernandez in round one,
he survives, hurts Hernandez in round two, he survives again
like we've seen from Hernandez, and then Hernandez takes over
and then it's three rounds to zero in the last three,

(13:59):
and then you know, we end up with that three
to two split. I can see it that way, but
I don't think again it's because Delici just goes out
there just is the better fighter, outstriking him, out wrestling him,
or defending the wrestling, and just like being better for
ten minutes that I don't expect. So I do still
think it's an early lately versus a late dynamic for

(14:19):
the other reasons I mentioned. And I do think if
you're laying the chalk here on Hernandez, yeah, you might
have some sweaty moments early on. Considering again, over and
over we've seen this dude hurt. Look what we just
had last week with Tyra versus Park. As I said, there,
Park undefeated ten and zero gets hurt in like every fight,
dropped in multiple fights. Even a guy like Tyra might

(14:42):
be able to hurt him. Oh and what do you know,
he did easily to like effortlessly. So when you have
a guy who just gets hurt over and over and
over again, even when he's facing a guy who's a grappler,
who's not that great of a striker but has shown
some power, shown some power at times, there's very much
some shades of the Tyra park situation here with Delite,

(15:04):
say Hernandez again, I would not be surprised at all
the Fernandez gets hurt and cracked here. That's kind of
been his m O to an extent, So I just
say he is probably going to survive Eventually down the stretch,
will take over the fight and either wins a clear
cut decision or maybe even ends up actually getting a finish,
depending how much Dalites tires out. So for me, the

(15:28):
biggest issues are just ALITSA. He's not very durable himself.
He doesn't have a great defense, he doesn't do well
once he starts getting hit and starts getting pressured and
starts gassing out. He also again gases out for no
reason on his own, especially if he's going against the
guy who's going to be making him gass out like
Hernandez is going to do. Probably going to be not
necessarily one way traffic later on, but start to become

(15:51):
pretty clear cut for Hernandez. Dealites might still be dangerous
with the submission attempt here or there, maybe some power
at times, but I think it is again kind of
that early late dynamic, and overall in a five rounder,
Hernandez should get get his hand raised here, do.

Speaker 1 (16:06):
I want to lay over three to one on him.
Absolutely not.

Speaker 2 (16:11):
I don't really like this fight from a moneyline perspective
either way, not from dogger pass, not from a live
betting perspective. You know, sometimes with these early late dynamics,
I will recommend a live betting situation and maybe it
plays out that way, Like, yeah, if Dalitsa is up
two rounds to zero or something like that, yeah, look

(16:31):
to live bet Hernandez obviously, But my point is on
paper going in, I'm not sure we're actually going to
get that. Seems like everybody on Twitter again thinks that.
But I again would not be surprised at all if
we have a one to one situation after the first
two rounds, or maybe even Hernandez ahead just because he's
able to get the takedowns keep getting him down over

(16:53):
and over, you know, the up and down situation, and
Dalitsa is just not really able to get much of
his offense going, like is AALITEI gonna win the round
because he gets taken down and threatens with a sub
off of his back. No, it's not gonna win him
the round. How's he gonna win the round? He either
defends all of the takedowns and keeps it standing and
out points Hernandez or he hurts him. So if he's

(17:15):
getting taken down, if he's clinched, and it's the up
and down situation like we see so often with Hernandez,
especially early, Dealite is not even gonna win those rounds
most likely. So maybe he wins one because he hurts him,
maybe wins both because he hurts him, but again probably
requires him to do something dramatic rather than just Hernandez

(17:35):
giving it to him from starting so slow. So if
we get that start from Hernandez where he's so slow
and Dalite has some dramatic and we get the live
betting opportunity, yeah, I'll take it. But on one hand,
I don't. I'm not so sure we're going to get
it to begin with. And on the other it seems
to be such a prevalent talking point from people in

(17:57):
general right now that you know, I talk about how
dumb the odds makers are with the live lines, like
they just like they just they don't see the obvious
stuff Like this is the classic example where it'd be
super obvious, where like Dalite's up a couple of rounds
and they're like, oh, yeah, minus five hundred Delite because
they don't.

Speaker 1 (18:14):
Understand the cardio dynamic.

Speaker 2 (18:16):
But this one, it's like it seems so obvious to
everyone and their mother that I feel like, even if
we do get the situation where Dalite is doing well
early on, I feel like the odds makers might be
on top of even this one as bad as they
are with the live lines, Like if they're gonna be
on top of this of one with us early versus

(18:38):
late dynamic, like this is gonna be the one. Everybody
knows about it. Everybody's talking about it, everybody's saying they're
looking to live bet it. Unless the odds makers really
are like just it's almost like an IQ test we
talk about sometimes fights are are you IQ tests? Like, man,
unless this guy just fights with the dumbest IQ ever, Like,
as long as he just has relatively smart fight you here,

(19:00):
it's a walk in the park.

Speaker 1 (19:02):
This is kind of like an IQ test for the
odds makers.

Speaker 2 (19:04):
We might get to see just how bad they are
if they are still hanging like Dealites is a huge
favorite if he wins early on here, considering how we
all know how bad as card you as, I mean, man,
they're even dumber than even I have said about them.

Speaker 1 (19:19):
So we'll see.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
But I'm just not really counting on the live betting
angle really being at play here.

Speaker 1 (19:24):
For a variety of reasons.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
As I mentioned, Maybe I'm wrong, and if it's there,
I'll take it, but I'm just not counting on it,
not like in a money line either way. Here. Maybe
I'll find something with the props as the week progresses.
It's Tuesday as I'm recording this, so still early, but
as of now, Hernandez will be the official prediction. But
I have absolutely no lean from a betting angle on
this one, and that.

Speaker 1 (19:46):
Will do it for the free podcast.

Speaker 2 (19:48):
Remember though, check out patreon dot com slash Furies Fight
Picks for a bunch more fight week content. We have
other podcast breakdowns, we have written breakdowns, weigh in and
tape study analysis, evergreen content like Lucas lecture in the
Fantasy Fight Forecast series, and of course the staff picks

(20:08):
articles going up later this week, as well as the
post fight show going up this weekend following the event.
So a bunch of content week in and week out,
and most importantly of all, you can find all of
the official bets third party tracked and verified over there
on the Patreon. In the betting tier as well, we
have several bets up now for multiple events including this.

(20:31):
UFC went three to zero in the events last week
for around seven units. All of our bets again third
party tracked and verified hundreds of units long term. Can
find the records and links to all of the third
party tracking on the Patreon as well. And again, this
podcast a free one, always goes up the earliest they
are on the Patreon. Sometimes it's the only place that

(20:53):
goes up. It's still always free. You don't need to
sign up for anything there, but you can get it
always the earliest on patreon dot com slash Fury's fight Pick,
so hopefully you join us over there for the rest
of the content this week. Otherwise, good luck in all
of your bets this week. Hopefully you profit. Until next time,
I'm Luka Fury and thank you for listening.