UFC Fight Night Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC Vegas one five, going down this Saturday from
the Apex, headlined by Laron Murphy against Josh Emmett.

Speaker 1 (00:15):
Interesting matchup there.

Speaker 2 (00:16):
Yes, I know Murphy is a decided favorite minus three
ten at the best available price, but there certainly is
some danger on the other side here from Emmett. It's
actually a good type of not necessarily measuring stick, but
a good test of an opponent for Murphy. Here we know, overall,
in terms of his general quality of a fighter and
where he's at in terms of his career, being the

(00:37):
younger guy and all that, the one on the rise,
Evant's on not necessarily on the way out, like he's
totally shot, but he's definitely declined at this point in time.
It's safe to say that overall Murphy has the higher
upside and overall is a better fighter. However, that's not
always what decides fights. The strategy, fight IQ decision making,

(00:57):
the general approach from a fighter is very very important,
and as I always talk about, when you're trying to
gauge up and coming fighters, you want to look at
not just oh, can they earn a title shot, because
that's really not that hard to do in the UFC,
especially if the UFC wants you to get that title shot.
I look at how they just gave Sean O'Malley another
shot at Morab just announced yesterday. So getting a title

(01:21):
shots actually not that difficult. But actually winning the title,
defending the title, reigning as a truly elite level fighter
against other elite level fighters and beating them, it's a
very different scenario. And we're looking at fighters who can
actually compete amongst the elites. You want to look at
them in terms of not just are they skilled, but

(01:41):
how do they actually approach each matchup. Do they approach
it tactically? Do they approach it recklessly? For example, Ilia
Tuporia when he fought Josh Emmett basically fought a different
fight than we've ever seen from Tuporia. That was his
most measured and respectful performance we've ever seen. And we
know Taporia very cocky, very dismissive oftentimes of his opposition,

(02:04):
and yet go back and watch that fight. I notice
it live, I notice watching it on tape as well.
That was the most measured and patient and reserved we've
ever seen to Pouria because he respected the power and
the counters from Emmett. Now, don't get me wrong, he
was still aggressive at times. He's still ended volume, he
still dominated the fight, but the reason that went to
decision is because he didn't get so gung ho like

(02:25):
he did against other opponents, because he respected the counters
and the power coming back from Emmett and so a
sign like that. I actually greatly praised him on the
post fight podcast for how well he fought that matchup, because, again,
for the reason I just mentioned, you want to actually
look for fighters who are truly elite to do that

(02:46):
type of thing, because, boy, I will tell you someone
who's been watching the sport for two full decades, there
are a ton of prospects who are in very straightforward
matchups where it's like, man, literally just don't grapple with
this guy and then go out and choose to get
takedowns and grapple and get tapped out because they wanted
to prove a point.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Dumb stuff like that happens all the time.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
So I'll get to that fight more in just a second,
real quick, do you ordermind? You guys, we do have
a bunch of official bets up for this card in
the next YEARFC the pay per view over on Patreon
dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks several bets up now
going to be adding even more. We also have PFL
bets up as well, have several bets several events that

(03:27):
will be betting this week Oliver Bets.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Of course, third.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
Party tracked and verified, made around seventy five units last year,
up hundreds of units long term, so check it all
out again Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. Also
make sure you check me out on social media. I'm
at Luca Fury l u c A f U r
y on everything except for YouTube. That's just like the
Patreon that's YouTube dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
Anyways, back to the fight here.

Speaker 2 (03:55):
Despite yes, on paper it should be certainly in Murphy's face,
there is still enough danger from the other side of
Emmett that it is a good sort of test to
see where Murphy is at in terms of how is
he going to approach it stylistically, in terms of what
his game plan and fight a Q are going to be.
Not that he's totally unproven in those regards, but there's

(04:17):
not many guys in the division, like Josh Emmett who
have that. I mean, he can throw volume at times,
but generally what his style revolves around is either the
landing of the power shot, especially with counters, or the
threat of landing, which then makes his opponents be more
passive than they usually are. So he's one of those fighters.

(04:37):
It's kind of like a good offense. Our good defense
is a good offense, And when fighters are able to
avoid his offense while also still being aggressive, it's not
really worked out very well for him. So a couple
of things to watch out for here is one, does
Lauren Murphy just completely blow it?

Speaker 1 (04:55):
Two?

Speaker 2 (04:55):
If he does go out there and when, how easy
does he make it look? And how how much does
he avoid the danger? If he's, say, for example, able
to just get takedowns and that obviously be smart avoid
the power altogether. But Emmitt's not easy to take down.
But let's say more iph he just gets takedowns and
beat him on the ground and avoids striking altogether. Okay,
thumbs up, good job, he fought smart and avoided the striking.

(05:18):
That's good, But would be even better to see is
him be able to strike? But do it in a
way like Tapuria did, where he was still basically not
really ever in any danger. Because again, you watch that
to Poria fight, it's not just that, oh, he happened
to outland Emmett, it was that he was putting himself
in positions to land where Emmett really couldn't land and return,
or just getting in these positions where he had significant advantages,

(05:40):
getting Emmitt up against the cage, etc. Really leveraging his
skill set and avoiding what Emmett was trying to do
on the feet. That's very different than see some of
these other fighters were like, I don't watch tape and
I'm just gonna go out there and do what I'm
gonna do, and oh I just got knocked out as
a huge favorite. That happens all the time in MMA.
So again, this is in a way kind of a

(06:01):
good test for Murphy, not because man, is he really
better than Josh Emmont at this point time? Well, the
odds that you know over three to one kind of
tell you that. But there's a reason why they still fight.
He could absolutely go out there and blow it, and
not only if you know, just winning, but how does
he win? How does he do it? How easy, how effortless,
how strategic is he? These are all the things you

(06:21):
really want to watch for as a guy on the rise.
In terms of the matchup, overall, what Emmontt actually brings
to the table, there's really not too much beyond again,
the overhand in the hook. I mean, occasionally you throw
an elbow, maybe a kick here or there, maybe a backfist,
but generally speaking, most of his offense comes down to

(06:43):
one of those two things. And again, if you're a
good tactical fighter, you can prepare for that. If you're
not well then obviously you've seen he has still happened
to melt several fighters with them, so he still does
have power. Even at this day and age. You definitely
have to be careful about it. However, it's not like
you have to worry about so much different tools. You
have to worry about headkicks or devastating body kicks or

(07:04):
really creative strikes with his arms. It's usually just kind
of overhand or a hook, and generally otherwise you're probably
pretty safe. And in the case of Murphy his striking,
he is not as dangerous in terms of the ability
to just uncork power like that. However, he does have
an overall more evolved striking approach.

Speaker 1 (07:27):
He just has more tools on the striking.

Speaker 2 (07:30):
He's a more classic striker, like when you look at Emmett,
you don't look at me like, man, that's just like
a good kickboxer.

Speaker 1 (07:35):
Now, he's a guy who's.

Speaker 2 (07:36):
Very compact and he kind of loads up like a
spring and then explodes with these kind of lunging, looping shots.
He's not like a fluid, technical striker who really moves
super well. There's times where yeah, he'll move in and
out of space well, like in straight lines, but he's
not generally the guy who has really great or advanced footwork.
He again is kind of like a very one dimensional

(07:58):
sort of striker, and Murphy at least has more layers
to his game. He's a more evolved striker as I mentioned.
That being said, though, Murphy we have seen be a
little bit shaky on the striking defense at times. Did
he gay manage to drop him clean? Now, he did
seem to recover very quickly, but it was near the
end of the round, and you know, who knows, maybe

(08:19):
if there was more time could things could have gone differently.
But we have seen him get rocked and dropped versus
guys who much like a Josh Emmett, Well, Dan Egay's
kind of a similar thing. He doesn't really have that
much they really have to worry about, except you know,
he's gonna load up on some shots here or there,
has really good pullback right hand. That's actually not what
he caught Murphy with, though it was kind of a

(08:40):
strange sequence. Murphy went for a kick, if I recall
it correctly, Ega goes to defend it, and then he
ends up actually getting sort of reset to a south
paw position, and then it's sort of like he throws
a straight left from southpaw and that's what drops Murphy.
And then Murphy he gets dropped clean. He gets back

(09:01):
up pretty quickly, but he was still very clearly hurt,
kind of gets scored on up against the cage, if
I recall correctly for a bit. It was with like
less than a minute left in the round, though, so
you know, Murphy not to say he was saved by
the bell, but had that happened in the first minute
of the round, maybe you know, we end up with
a different result in that fight. But nonetheless, by point

(09:22):
there is when you look at that stylistic matchup, at
least on the feet specifically, you look.

Speaker 1 (09:28):
At Egay and you go, okay.

Speaker 2 (09:30):
He has a good pullback right hand, and sometimes he
follows it up with a good left hook as well.
And aside from that, not really too much you have
to worry about, but he does have dangerous power with
them well, Josh Emmont, like I mentioned, kind of the
same thing is overhand in the hook, and outside of
that you don't really have to worry.

Speaker 1 (09:46):
Too much about anything else.

Speaker 2 (09:48):
And yet when Murphy was in this exact same situation,
he basically, by chance happened to survive. He very easily
could have been put out cold there. If it happened
maybe to land a little bit cleaner, he ran right in.
So again my point is, you have a guy who's
over three to one, who is in this exact same situation,
wasn't that long ago, and came very close to blowing it.

(10:09):
That's definitely a concern. So on the feet, definitely watch
out for that. If I'm rooting for him or backing
him in any way, I would prefer him, like I said,
to just go for the takedowns. That's the safest route
in terms of his development. As a fighter. In terms
of promise for his future, I think the best sign
is if he's actually able to dominate Ega or excuse

(10:31):
to be an Emmett on the feet, still avoid of
course the big power shots much like Daporia did, but
still able to be able to comfortably outstrike him. An
interesting thing I've seen people commenting on X about is
a lot of people seem to say this is kind
of like a matchup of power versus speed, like Emmett
wassus the power, Murphy with the speed. I don't really

(10:52):
agree with that. Emmett actually is very fast to himself,
especially when he uncorks his power shots. Again, He's like
a spring, just kind of low up and then unquirks
him very very quickly. Murphy not like he's a super
super fast fighter. I would actually say they're pretty similar
in the speed department, and I would actually not be
surprised at all if Emmett with his very quick single

(11:14):
or even double up on the shot punches, actually is
able to outspeed Murphy at times. So this kind of
idea that it's all just emmittt with this kind of
slow brooding power versus Murphy who's finesse and quickness and
agility and all this not really it's much more gray
than that. So again, Murphy, I would love to see
him show more layers in his striking and be able

(11:35):
to dominate the feat much like Watoria did. I'm not
expecting that. I'm just saying in terms of like sort
of a best case scenario in terms for his future
prospects here, that'd probably be the best way he could
win this fight in terms of the safest way, the
smartest way he could win it would be obviously to
pursue the grappling. Now, Emmett, he has a wrestling background,

(11:56):
but he always uses it in reverse generally that that's
been good when he has been fresh anyways, hasn't faced
a lot of wrestlers. Though Murphy not a great wrestler,
he has rounded out his skill set to improve his grappling. Overall,
he's the better grappler here. But can he actually get
the takedowns? I'm not so sure. Well, it's early. While

(12:19):
it's early, Josh Emma, it is hard to take down.
He is a low center of gravity, he's kind of
short and stocky, and also if you're not a guy
who has a real quick shot like do you go
in for, saye, for a double leg or even just
trying something like an ankle pick or a knee tap
or a single leg anything like that if you're someone
who has to rely on more, kind of just stumbling
into the clinch. Not so great against the guy who

(12:39):
has a really quick, sharp, powerful counters, especially if you
move in on a straight line, which is again exactly
what Murphy did against Danny Egay which almost got his
lights put out.

Speaker 1 (12:49):
So it's kind of a weird matchup.

Speaker 2 (12:51):
But on one hand, yes, Murphy's the overall better striker,
but it's very dangerous for him there, especially after we
he did against the Egay on In terms of the yes,
he should be the better grappler here, but can he
actually get the takedowns consistently at least while they're fresh.
Not so sure about that. So there's multiple pass to
victory here, they just none of them are super easy

(13:12):
on paper. Now, it'd be great if he made them
look super easy. Again in terms of his development and
looking for his future prospects, it'd be great if he
made this look easy in any regard, But on paper,
it's not just.

Speaker 1 (13:23):
A total gimme matchup. Walkthrough there is.

Speaker 2 (13:25):
Definitely multiple areas that provide some difficulty, and especially one
that provides real danger, which is again the power punches
on the feet. So overall, do I favor l Rowan Murphy? Obviously?
Do I think he should be a decided favorite? Yes,
I do think so.

Speaker 1 (13:41):
But do I.

Speaker 2 (13:41):
Actually want to lay minus three to ten at the
best available Some spots have closehit at four to one.
It's tricky because in these spots, if you look historically
when these guys have a puncher's chance, there's certain times
where they should be a pick them and then there's
other times where it just should not be at all.
They should be actually a very very big underdog. I
think this one's kind of somewhere in between. I do

(14:03):
think that Murphy should be the decided favorite, but given
some of the weaknesses he's shown, the fact that he
doesn't have superdominance in some of the areas that'd be
great to exploit Emmitt in leads me to believe that
maybe three to ten is a little bit on the
high side. Now is it so high that I want
to bet the other side with Emmett at plus two
hundred something? Now just a pass in terms of the

(14:25):
money line for me. But in this type of situation,
you have to again be aware of what you're getting
into with not just I mean, I don't think there's
necessarily any reason to think, oh man, this could be
a bad decision. But if we do have a situation
where let's just say that he's respectful of Emmett's power,
much like to Poria was, but he's not able to

(14:46):
land the same offense that to Poria did, they end
up having somewhat of a similar volume, and maybe Emmett's
punches look a bit more demonstrable to the judges. And
now you're going to the judges' scorecard saying, I mean,
I think it's three to two for Murphy, maybe even
four to one.

Speaker 1 (15:00):
But how many.

Speaker 2 (15:01):
Times have we seen judges not just straight up rob fighters,
but even in these fights where it's like competitive but
you know they should still get it right, they get
those wrongs so often as well. It's not just like
these random, flucish, out of the blue robberies. It's also
they consistently have difficulties scoring competitive fights. It's almost like
they're two different things. It's like, well, there's just a
straight up robbery that's so bad. I'm like, that's not

(15:24):
even just that you're a bad judge, it's just like
pure incompetence. But when it's just like they consistently have
trouble scoring close fights, and like that's different than just
being horrible for one showing you get what I'm saying, Like,
it's one thing if man, we had a straight robbery
once a month, like that's bad. But the fact that
we have basically half of the competitive fights get scored
wrong week in and week out, which are much more

(15:46):
prevalent than the outright crazy robberies, that's what's much more concerning,
because it's not once in a blue moon that this
is happening. It's basically every week, oftentimes multiple times a week.
So again, in that situation, if we go to a
competitive five round decision in three three ten, three point
fifty almost four to one, do you really want to
be sitting with that ticket? Probably not, not to mention,

(16:09):
he could probably get it better in live betting at
some point on Murphy if that is also how the
fight plays out. So not that I think this is
an amazing live betting spot, not that I think this
is some great dog or pass spot either. It just
more of a spot where yet I think the favorite
should win, But this is a real test for him.
In some ways, I think he will probably pass. The
question is how clearly, how dominantly, if at all, he

(16:32):
will be My official prediction Murphy probably by decision, I
will say Emmett, well, he is extremely tough. He does
seem to be slowing down more as he's regressed and
gotten older in age. His body also seems to take
a lot of damage visibly it shows in his face,
but also it seems to get injured more often nowadays.
So I wouldn't be surprised if we get sort of

(16:53):
a like wearing down, sort of erosion type of performance
from Emmett, where he starts off a bit strongs with
a real pep in his step, and he just erodes
as each minute wears on, and by the time it's
mid to late in the fight, you're like, okay, man,
come on, Murphy, you could probably put him away if
you really put your foot down on the gas right now.
And then again, it's a good kind of a test

(17:14):
spot for Murphy. Does he actually go for the kill
there or does he play it a bit too safe?
So again I think this is actually good matchmaking by
the UFC in terms of a good test for Murphy.
It's not like cause you know, some five and oh
super green prospect. He's never been tested at all. But
this is still another good test for him. And again
I think he probably will pass. I just am not
willing to lay over three to one on that propositions.

(17:37):
So the road Murphy will be by prediction, probably by
a decision that will do it for the main event
prev here. But remember over on the Patreon do you
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(18:00):
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Speaker 1 (18:08):
In the betting tier.

Speaker 2 (18:10):
Also over there you can get not only as I mentioned,
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(18:30):
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(18:53):
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be back next week for another UFC card. Until then,
I'm Luka Fury and thank you for listening.