UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs Dolidze Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings.

Speaker 2 (00:01):
I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event preview
for UFC Vegas one to four that's headlined by a
rematch between Marvin Vttori and Roman Delites. They last fought
almost exactly two years ago March eighteenth, twenty twenty three.
That was a close, competitive decision that ultimately went Vittori's way.

(00:21):
Not really much has changed since then between the two
fighters a little bit as I'm get into, but not
really a rematch anyone was asking for. But the UFC's
been doing a lot of these kind of random, pointless
rematches lately for whatever reason.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
So here we are again.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Not exactly a great card either, not a good main event,
not a great main card overall. Pretty much one of
the worst offerings you've had from the UFC in a
bit here, but hopefully it does at least offer some
money making opportunities. Unfortunately we did not win last week,
but hopefully we'll get back on track this week. Had
a huge year of twenty twenty four, around seventy five units,

(00:57):
all third party tracked and verified, so let uslow start
to this year so far, but we'll get a big
win street going soon enough, hopefully, that it starts this week.
Already have several bets up now for this card as
well as some future UFC events, so check out the
official betting tier over.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
On patreon dot com.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
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including further podcasts, pre and post podcasts, written articles, breakdowns,
you name it, we pretty much.

Speaker 1 (01:28):
Have it over there. So basically everything you need from a.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
Pre or post fight betting perspective we have you covered,
including of course those official bets, So check it all
out at patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. With
that asigle, let's get to the fight breakdown here again.
Main event of UFC Vegas one O four Marvin Vittori
versus Roman Dalitze number two. As for the betting odds,

(01:50):
the Roman Dalitze is a small underdog here plus one
thirty five. The winner of the first matchup, as you'd expect,
is the favorite, with Vittori at minus one sixty. I
don't think much has changed since their first meeting. However,
I do think that Vittori is probably not necessarily on

(02:11):
his way out, as if he's being like a completely
shot fighter, but these do seem to be two fighters
on a very different trajectory. Dalid say, he is no
spring chicken, but he is improving as a fighter. He's
certainly not regressing, even though he's at thirty six years old.
Vittori only thirty one. But it seems like he just
hasn't really been focused on MM. His last fight was

(02:32):
against Jared Cannoneer. He lost somewhat one side of a
fight there. That was back shortly after the fight against Alitse,
so about two years since he's been in the cage now.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
He had a cancel fight against.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Brendan Allen in there, and even just when you hear
his interviews and stuff, it doesn't sound like he's very
focused on MMA. Doesn't seem like he's been focused on
his time off, doesn't seem like he's very focused right
now either. So I'm actually expecting not a great version
of and I'm expecting and at least as good a
version as we've ever seen of Dalitze, if not a

(03:05):
better version. And because of that, that makes this fight
even tougher to call, because had this fight been only
three rounds and not a five round main event here.
Dalit he has cardio issues. We've seen that multiple times,
and if this fight does go past round two, round three,
especially round four, we're probably going to see them present
themselves once again. And so this is a three rounder

(03:27):
against a potentially regressed Vottori already saw very close to
one last time.

Speaker 1 (03:32):
Probably Dalitze would be able to do.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
Enough to maybe edge that out, and then you could
say maybe twenty nine to twenty eight or depending how
regressed Vittori is, I guess maybe a thirty twenty seven
as possible, but probably twenty nine to twenty eight given
Dalite's cardio issues. But then when you talk about now
a five rounder, that becomes much trickier because what if
we do get a regress Vattori and we get a

(03:54):
slightly improved dalit say, and because of that, he's able
to go out there and noticeably be the better fighter
at least early on, and maybe he has two rounds
of the bank, but then he tires or outright gases,
like we've seen from him multiple times in the past. Well, Vittori,
he's always had pretty solid cardio. He doesn't just completely
fall apart, even if he slows down he doesn't just

(04:16):
completely gas. He's always been one of the most durable
fighters in MMA. My god, this dude has a chin
on him and we've seen a tested against real power
as well. So he's probably gonna be able to survive
and hang in there. And maybe he looks poor, maybe
he looks very regressed. But if Dalite is that gas
for at least half of the fight, based on simply

(04:37):
outlasting him, Vori can possibly still go on and win
the fight. So that's what makes a tricky here is
the cardio issue of Dalitze. It has been a real
issue in the past. It's not one of these situations
where we're like, well, we haven't seen him go five rounds,
maybe cardio is good. No, No, we've seen him gas
in three rounders. We've seen him gas in five. That's bad.

(04:57):
We know his cardios are real issue. So in terms
of the intangibles such as regression, that goes against Vittori,
But in terms of intangibles such as cardio issues or durability,
that certainly goes against the lit Say, in terms of
the skill set Vittori, I mean, they're both jack of
all trades, masters of none to an extent, except Vittori,

(05:20):
he's more of a point fighter in all areas. He
doesn't really have much power or explosivity on the feet.
He just kind of goes out there, throws some volume
and can land some decent amount of strikes and win
on the judges' scorecards if he gets you to the ground.
Same deal kind of He can get submissions, of course,
but generally speaking, not great at them, a lot of control,
and he's also not that great of a wrestler, much

(05:42):
better on the defensive end than the offensive end. In
the case of DLit say, not great with the offensive
wrestling either, but he is kind of weak on the
defensive side, unlike Vittori, And in terms of his overall grappling,
he's worse with positional control, but much better with getting
the finishes on the mat whether he's on top or
on the bottom. So very different styles in terms of

(06:03):
again victory being more of a kind of drag it
out durable, cardio pace type of fighter, not a great finisher,
especially in the UFC, whereas on the flip side, dalite
polar opposite poor cardio, poor durability, very good finishing on
the feet and on the ground, but not actually great
overall technique, very defensively porous, so extremely different styles and

(06:27):
types of fighters here, and we saw that a bit
in their first fight. We saw Vittori going out there,
he was the fresher fighter down the stretch. He also
was throwing and landing more pace, more volume, and we
saw Dalitse not being able to throw as much, but
he was more explosive. He seemed to land the bigger strikes,
the bigger moments, and ultimately the judges went with the volume,

(06:48):
as they tend to do unless the damage is very
very apparent. This fight will probably be the same case.
Yet again here the question is how regressed is Vittori,
does he have ring rest, and also how long does
Delitze manage to hang on here in terms of his cardio.
So if this was a three rounder, I would actually

(07:09):
say Delitze probably finds a way to win two of
the three, whether it's the first two and then drops
the third, or maybe he wins the first, drops the second,
but then catches a second win in the third and
wins that also because he has the more dynamic finishing ability.
Even if he doesn't actually get the finish, he's likely
to put Vittori in more threatening positions than vice versa,

(07:30):
and that obviously also can help sway the judges. So
say we have round one go to Dalitz because he was,
you know, offensively sound and he was fresh. Then he
starts to slow down a bit, Round two goes to Vittori.
You think, okay, well, Dalite's probably gonna drop round three now,
but he actually manages to get some sort of big
offense going takes the back or gets a dominant position

(07:53):
or maybe even flurries against the Caju in a big way.
Even if he doesn't straight rock Votori, he still gets
them in some kind of trouble there. And after a
kind of slow round Revotori, yeah, I was landing more
than him, but not doing much. That's enough to sway it,
and bam, now we have two of the three rounds
for roma. Dalites very very possible in a three rounder
and a five rounder. Though if he's tired after two rounds,

(08:16):
if he's tired, especially after less than two rounds, man,
it's gonna be hard to get a second win, and
it's gonna also be hard to rally because he needs
to win three rounds, not just two. And that is
a big difference if you're a guy who notoriously gases
at about a round and a half two rounds. So
this is a really, really tough one. On one hand,
I do kind of want to go with Dalitee just
because of again the more dynamic offense, and then you

(08:39):
also have the potential issues for Vittori, including the time
off could lead to ring rust, seems like he potentially
has a lack of focus, and also just seems like
he's on a regression overall as a fighter, not improving
like he once was. But on the flip side, you
can also say, well, those are kind of assumptions, as
are guesses. Maybe the time off will ac should be
good for him, maybe he'll be fresh and refocused, excited

(09:00):
to fight again.

Speaker 1 (09:01):
Doesn't seem like that, but we'll see.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
Maybe, you know, the issues in terms of regression are
actually going to be overstated, and he's still going to
be very durable, still have the great cardio, still have
good pace, and yeah, maybe Vittoria goes out there and
does indeed get beat up a bit in the first
round or so, but this is a five rounder and
as long as he has that pace, that cardio and
that survivability, he probably should be able to win down

(09:23):
the stretch. So ultimately I do despite the concerns for Vittori,
I do have to go with him for the official
pick here, but it's a really tough one. I wouldn't
want to bet him as a favorite price here of
around minus one fifty minus one sixty, where he is
now not really any value in that, but I do
think he is probably the more likely winner here. I
will say, you know, as I mentioned, I would expect

(09:45):
Victory to have some struggles early on, just because we
have seen dalite Biso. Not necessarily like he's super offensively
gifted early on, but he's aggressive, and he does have
power and speed, and he has good finishing ability on
the mat, and when he's aggressed have been giving himself
lots of opportunities, he can be very dangerous. So I
would expect that early on, Delitze is going to have

(10:06):
some success. As I talked about a lot of times
in these five rounders, they're great live betting opportunities when
you know one guy is a cardio machine or one
guy is the opposite of that. And I wouldn't say
that delites or excuse to be a Victoria is a
cardio machine, but he certainly has very solid cardio and obviously,
as I went at length about, Dalite does not, So

(10:27):
if you were looking to play Vittori here, I don't
really see why you would do it pre fight. I mean,
it's very likely that the first two rounds will at
least be competitive, and probably at least one of them,
especially the first, has a good chance of going to Dalites.
This is just one of those very classic cardio live
betting spots where if you know one guy is going

(10:48):
to have a slow start and you know he's going
to be strong down the stretch, even if you don't
think he's a more likely winner in the fight. I mean,
you could be someone who thinks that man, maybe you
actually favor Dalitze ever so slightly here, but if Vittori
goes down a very solid first round, first round and
a half, you might be able to get.

Speaker 1 (11:05):
Him at a good sized underdog price.

Speaker 2 (11:07):
And even if again you're slightly favoring Delites a pre
fight man, all of a sudden you get Vittoria at
plus two fifty, knowing he has a cardio advantage, that's
still worth it. Even if you didn't like him pre
But then again, if you're someone who does like him
pre fight, and so you're considering something like minus one sixty,
well then if you just wait around and get him
out again like plus two hundred or something, why would
you not take that? So these types of cardio life

(11:29):
betting opportunities, they are pretty often in mme, especially in
the five rounders. It's something I point out pretty much
every time. And this is another one. Now, will they
actually come to fruition every time? No, not always, but
they certainly come to fruition a good amount of the time,
and it is something to pay attention to. So for me,
in terms of a pre fight bet here, the only

(11:51):
thing that makes sense is if you like Delites, because
again he is likely to start out strong and then falter,
Whereas if you like Vittori, I don't see why you
wouldn't wait at least around here. So in terms of
an official prediction, I will ultimately go with marv Vettori,
probably by a decision, but depending how badly delete A
gases and falls apart. If that happens, we could actually

(12:13):
see a late TKO as well. It's just Vittori really
not a good finisher and all right, that we'll do
it for this free main event preview, but of course
remember I do have other breakdowns, including the rest of
the main card and podcast form over on the Patreon.
We also have the cheat sheet articles with a bunch
of written content, as well as the staff picks article.

(12:34):
The postfight podcast will be going up after the card
as well, as of course, the official bets was available
all at patreon dot com. Slash Furies Fight Picks bets
are up now and are all third party tracked and verified.
Made seventy five units last year, up hundreds of units long.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
Term as well. So hopefully you.

Speaker 2 (12:53):
Join us over on the Patreon for the rest of
the content this week. Even if not, though, good luck
in all of your bets. I hope you profit. Until
next time, I'm looking Fury and thank you for listening.