UFC Mexico Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC Mexico. Headlining that card is Brandon Moreno,
former title holder against for title challenger Steve Erseg. Somewhat
of a fun matchup there. Not the greatest main event,
but it is a UFC fight Night in international territory,

(00:22):
so I guess this is kind of what you expect
at this point, but hopefully it's a funfight and a
fun card overall. I'll be breaking down the main event
here on this episode, but remember the Patreon does have
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(00:44):
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(01:50):
Furies Fight Picks. But other than that, let's get to
the main event preview here again, Brandon Marino taking on
Steve Ersag, the former of the flyweight division. Brandon Moreno
is the favorite right now minus two thirty comeback on
erseg plus two hundred opening odds. Pretty similar. Brandon was

(02:12):
slightly smaller of a favorite, a little bit under two
to one, but still a fairly decided favorite. Wasn't ever
like a pickup or anything like that in terms of
the line and the style matchup. I will say this,
if we're getting prime Brandon Moreno, I understand the line.
Prime Brandon Moreno pretty good stylistic matchup to go against

(02:33):
Steve Seg who at this point Erseg is a younger fighter.
He's a more improving fighter. I would expect a better
version of him. Maybe not so much from Moreno. He's
actually shown some inconsistencies recently, had some I wouldn't say
bad performances because it's not like he's facing bums, but
there's been inconsistencies where his pace has not looked as

(02:54):
good and it's not like his opponent was making him
miss or something like that. It's been his own doing.
So I am wondering with him being up there in age,
not that he's ancient, but he's getting up there in
age for a flyweight. He's had a lot of fight years,
a lot of five rounders, a lot of wars, a
lot of damage taken. Potentially we are starting to see
some overall regression in his career, so trending in different

(03:16):
directions here. Moreno on the way down, Erseg on the
way up. That said, from what we've seen so far,
I don't think it's a drastic drop from Moreno, and
I also don't think that Erseg is approving that dramatically
each fight, so slight probably in each direction for the
fighters here, but it is still worth doing. Now that said, again,
prime version of Brandon Moreno, he has great durability, great chin,

(03:41):
even when he gets cracked, he has great recovery, incredibly
hard to put away with strikes in terms of his
overall striking defense and not so Grady would get hit
a bit, but that also was because he threw so
much volume that he just gave his opponent opportunities. So
it was kind of like lamb two to and get
one in return, and so overall it's still worked in
his favor. But in his prime he was a good

(04:04):
volume striker with good durability, not so great defense, and
not actually great striking technique offensively either, he could throw
a good variety kicks and punches in that, but his
actual strikes are not that clee and never really have
been in terms of his wrestling. Always been the weakest
aspect of his game on both sides, especially the defensive front,
but even on the offensive front, he just is not

(04:25):
good with the takedowns. But he will actually uncork some
takedowns here or there, Whereas defensively, ooh, it can be
rough at times. Grappling wise kind of the same deal.
Good offensively good when he is in top position or
working towards some sort of offense, even if he's off
of his back, which is obviously less often, but he's
more often, you know, pursuing the offense when he's in

(04:46):
top position. But he will go for stuff off of
his back, whether it scrambles, sweeps or occasional submissions. The
issue with him there, though, is if he gets put
on his back, he can be controlled, he can be neutralized. Again,
prime version of him had great cardio, great pace down
the stretch, the worst of performances early in his career
where his cardio is a bit shakier, but again prime

(05:07):
version of him had great cardio and pace. So the
prime version of him, basically, what's his way to lose
against Steve ver Seg Basically get knocked out. I guess
that's not gonna happen. I mean, with his chin and
his durability and his recoverability. Erseg, Yeah, he has some
of the more power in this division, but he's still
not that crazy of a hitter. I mean, look at

(05:28):
the guys he was ko and it was generally speaking,
guys who are known for having poor chins. So it's
not like he was going out there and facing you know,
uncrackable iron chins and then going out there and you know,
just destroying them like in Francis and God Who Fashion
or something. It was like, oh, yeah, he fought Matt Schanell,
who was probably the worst chin in the UFC. Okay, congrats, awesome.

(05:50):
So yes he has power, but Prime Brandon Moreno not
really gonna get hurt by that power. Most likely erseg
poor takedown to himself better on the offensive front, but
still not particularly good there. So probably a wash in
the takedown offense department, but maybe because of his poor
takedown defense. I would actually say it's possible Marino could

(06:11):
get takedowns. And then in terms of grappling, yes, Marino
is overall certainly the better grappler, and then obviously when
you incorporate the pace, that's definitely another advantage for Moreno.
So Prime Morino versus Steve ver sage means just a
bad stylistic matchup for Ersag, Like, what's his path to
victory here. He's not realistically kao ing him. He's not
gonna submit him, he's not gonna out volume him. He'd

(06:33):
have to lay it, like the perfect best punch of
his career, some shot that Marino doesn't see coming that
he runs into, some countershot that clips him behind the
ear or on the temple or something basically, something flucish.
So if we get prime version of Marino, I think
it's a pretty good style matchup for him. That said, again,
there's been some inconsistencies from him recently. Obviously, he did

(06:53):
not look great against Pantosio when he lost his title.
He then also did lose to Brandon roy Val after that,
which was an upset. Then he did get a win
his last time out against amre Albazi, so one and
two over his last three. The two losses, yes, they
were against very good fighters, but he looked particularly hittable

(07:13):
in them. His cardio and pace they weren't bad, but
they weren't as good as usual. He was more sloppy.
He didn't have the same sort of control that he
does over his bouts that he usually just kind of
is the one dictating the pace, the tempo, overall, even
the location of them as well, just wasn't able to
do that in those and overall he just turned into basically,

(07:37):
you know, he's always a jack of all trades, master
of none, but he was really a master of none
in those bouts. So if we see a version of
him where he is sloppy, if his maybe cardio isn't
on point, if his pace isn't on point, maybe his
durability has regressed as well. Okay, maybe Steve Versa goes
out there, continues to improve, we get Moreno foolishly choosing

(07:57):
to strike the whole time with him, gets hit a lot,
maybe lose his rounds is his decision. Maybe his durability
goes get stopped. Maybe his cardio comes into play and
isn't great. Like, these are all potential scenarios, But are
they the most likely? Is there any hardcore evidence to
support them? No, but it is worth noting that considering
that where he is at in his career, it is

(08:19):
maybe these are all legitimate concerns at this point. So
if he fights smart, he goes out there, diligently pursues
the takedowns against a striker with poor takedown defense whose
only realistic path is a fluky shot or cut or
out cardioing him down the stretch somehow. I mean, these
are all very unlikely scenarios, even at the point we

(08:39):
are now with the morenos. So not to say that
Ersa can't win here. It's probably going to be relatively competitive.
MMA judges, as we see every single week are just
an absolute joke. That said, the hometown crowd will definitely
be on Marino's side. Maybe that will help him. I
do wonder about the altitude. Yes, again Marino, we've seen

(08:59):
him at altitude before and he's been fine. However, it
is still always a potential wildcard thrown into the mix
again with the issues that are already mentioned for him.
Of the concerns, I should say, maybe the altitude brings
it out in him, maybe actually does slow down, Maybe
he gets sloppy, and maybe it's two to one Moreno,
after the first three rounds he strikes too much, but

(09:20):
he's still ahead, and then he slows down and Ersag
is able to just barely edge out a couple of
close rounds, and all of a sudden we have a
three to two and a competitive five weight decision with
the three blind mice. You know, Adelai Bird and Saldiamato
and Chris Lee a cage side, so there's pass to
victory here. For Erseg it's just it does rely on

(09:42):
Moreno kind of screwing up, so it is Moreno's fight
to lose. That's also though, why you're seeing him as
a decided favorite minus two forty. But for me it's
I guess, not that it's really a term, but favorite
or pass. I just really don't see why why I
would want to play ers here. Yes, I understand again,

(10:02):
maybe you're just fading Moreno that you hope he's kind
of shot. But again there's some concerns about it, but
I don't see enough to pull the trigger on ersag.
And what again if we get prime Reno man brutal
style matchup for Erseg, so gotta go with Marino for
the pick. If he's smart, he avoids a striking, goes
for the takedown. Possibly could even get a submission at

(10:24):
that point, but most likely we'll probably see a competitive
fight go at least late, if not all five rounds.
But I do expect Brandon Moreno to get his hand
raised with the hometown crowd behind him and all right
that we'll do it for the main event preview, but
remember you can get the rest of my fight breakdowns
and podcasts form over on patreon dot com slash Furies

(10:46):
Fight Picks if you are not signed up already. You
can also get our cheat sheet articles with all sorts
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podcast series, the staff picks articles, the post fight analysis show,
and of course, of course most importantly of all, the

(11:06):
official bets. Do have several upright now, not only for
this UFC, but also future UFCS three fourteen and three fifteen,
so looking ahead already to making some money hopefully on
those cards. Hopefully you'll be joining us over on the
Patriotyandpatreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks in the betting
tier for those or the analysis tier for the rest

(11:28):
of the content. Remember, the betting tier gets all of
the content plus the bets, so hopefully I see you
over there for that other content. Otherwise, I'll be back
next week for another free main event preview. Until then,
I'm Luky Fury, and thank you for listening.