UFC Nashville Preview

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC Nashville that's headlined by Talison Tashia up
and coming prospect in the heavyweight division against the veteran
Derek Lewis. Interesting matchup, should be a violent one for
as long as it lasts. I'll be breaking that down

(00:22):
here in detail on this free preview. As a reminder, well,
this is free on a variety of platforms. It goes
up first on my Patreon in some cases several days
before it goes up anywhere else. So if you're listening
to this on one of these, say free podcast platforms
out there, I would highly recommend you check out my Patreon,

(00:43):
which is patreon dot com Slash Fury's fight picks to
get this much earlier. As well as a bunch more content,
there's several other podcast fight breakdowns. There's the post fight show.
There's other evergreen content as well, such as Lucas Lecture
and the Fantasy Fight Forecast series, And most importantly, there's

(01:05):
the official bets. We have a bunch up this week.
I think we have six events that we have bets
up so far on including this UFC coming off of
a nine unit win last time on the UFC three
seventeen cards, so big event today which was nice, but
a long term is what matters more. We made almost
one hundred units last year, enter up hundreds plural of

(01:27):
units long term. All those bets are third party tracked
and verified, every single one of them. You can find
those records and links to them over on the Patreon
as well as of course all of those bets again
that is patreon dot com slash Furies fight picks with
that aside. Getting back to the fight breakdown here again,

(01:49):
tell us in to Shira against Derek Lewis. The prospect
is a decent sized favorite here best available price on
to Shia minus two forty five come back Lewis is
plus to ten. I understand to share a being the favorite.
I think he most likely will win for a couple
of reasons. However, definitely see this dude as being a

(02:12):
fade at some point in the future. He's a guy
who the UFC would definitely love to try to hype.
He's very tall, even by heavyweight standards. Depends where you look.
He's listed between six' six and six foot, eight so
he's definitely someone at THE ufc would love to hype
up is, this you, know giant. Destroyer they usually tried

(02:33):
to do, that you, know when they had like The
Shane carmins and the Brock leseners who were not super,
tall but they were very muscular and still decent, size you,
know Like lesnar was six foot, four for. Example but
they try to do this as well With Stephen struve
who was six, eleven IF i recall it, Correctly and
he was never very, good and yet they repeatedly tried

(02:53):
to hype him up at different points as being some
great prospect just because he was, tall and they would
just hype up how amazingly enormous his reaches and his
height and he towers over, everyone, YadA. YadA we just
never was, good and they just tried to apply that
hype solely because of his. Height AND i can see
them absolutely doing the same thing here With. Tashia he

(03:16):
actually has at least some hype. Ability he does put
on some devastating. Performances he does have clearly some big.
Power he's aggressive and he throws pretty much everything into
everything that he. Throws so he's not a guy THAT
i foresee having good cardio down the. Stretch his fights
generally end pretty. Quickly if we see him go down

(03:38):
to say the third, round especially fourth, round fifth, ROUND
i think that he's probably not going to be very well.
OFF i think he's probably going to be someone who
gases relatively quickly in his, fights just given his style
and also his size and also, well, yes he is
six foot six to six foot, eight and he's also
very heavy at the upper end of the weight around

(04:00):
two sixty five. Ish it's not a, lean muscular two
sixty five. Ish he kind of has a body kind
of Like. Gumby he's very sort of, boxy and he
doesn't really have like a v, taper doesn't really have
much like, WELL i shouldn't even say. Much he doesn't
really have like any. Definition there's no. Abs he's just very,

(04:24):
soft doesn't really look like a guy who really even
works out very, much if at. All and so again
that just further adds to the fact that he has
probably not great cardio because he has a lot of
effectively dead. Weight if he were to either lean down
and get rid of some of the excess, fat he
would have a lot less weight to then move, around
which would help his cardio or if he turned that

(04:46):
dead weight into useful weight like, muscle that would actually
help his agility and. Movement, obviously you don't want to
get too, muscular and then that ends up obviously having
a diminishing returns. Eventually but to a certain, extent muscle
actually is good to help your car because you're functionally
stronger and you're not just carrying around a bunch of
excess fat that just literally helps you in no way

(05:07):
and only is a. Detriment so, again for a variety of,
REASONS i don't think that he's going to have good
cardio given his style and also just his body type
at the. Moment so AGAIN i don't think that he's
very deserving of a lot of hype at this. Point
maybe he'll prove me, wrong BUT i certainly think THE
ufc is going to try to hype. Him for, example

(05:28):
he is in a main event already getting fast tracked to,
that so again they're already kind of trying to get
the hype train going on. Him if he wins his,
fight it'll probably be a knockout in the first couple of,
rounds most likely the first, round very possibly the first
couple of. Minutes in, fact just given the way their
styles line. Up as they'll get to more in a,
second but not only AM i unimpressed with his. Build

(05:52):
and by the, way as someone who's six foot eight,
myself it's not Like i'm hating on the tall. Person
so it's, nothing you, know Like i'm some you, know
short king or something who's jealous of the dude's height
or something like, that where apparently around the same, Height
so it's nothing like. That it's just look at him
compared to other tall. Athletes maybe not necessarily AN mma

(06:13):
because we don't really have a lot of. Them usually
they're in sports LIKE nba or even in some CASES
mlb OR, nfl and you'll just see they're more athletic
looking even from a, glance and in some cases you
can judge a book by his. Cover he's not particularly.
Athletic he's not particularly. Explosive when he throws, strikes it
really looks like he's kind of like putting his weight into,

(06:36):
them which is. Good you obviously you want to put
your weight into. Them but When francis And god who throws,
strikes Or tom aspinall throws, punches, yes you can see
they're putting their weight into, them but it's a more fluid.
Motion there's more of a finesse and, athleticism a speed
and explosiveness to what they. Do it doesn't look like
when he's throwing strikes where just again kind of looks,

(06:59):
amateurish where he's just really kind of almost lunging with.
Them and it's just there's not a great rhythm to
his striking. Either there's just you watch his, striking it's
kind of hard to put it in. Words it's just
it doesn't look like someone who's very polished at. All,
fundamentally not very, sound, technically not very sound, overall lacking,

(07:21):
polished lacking. Refinement now he's only, Eight, no he's only twenty,
five which is kind of a baby for the. Division so,
Yes i'm sure he'll get. Better that's not What i'm not.
Saying he's never gonna improve and he's just gonna be
this version of himself. Forever, however the point here is
clearly THE ufc is already trying to fast track. Him
they're already trying to hype. Him if he wins his,

(07:44):
fight which probably will, happen he'll end up being my
fish prediction spoiler. Alert but if that, happens they're going
to also fast track him to contendership and then a title,
shot because THE ufc is also super thin in the headweight.
Division so my point is not that he's never going
to be. Good my point is they're fast tracking a
guy who's unlikely to be very good by the time

(08:06):
he's actually facing other not just very good, fighters but elite.
Fighters this was kind of this argument THAT i had
With francis And ganu back in the, day way back
when he was in his early days in THE, ufc
he was extremely rough around the. Edges at least he
had some better athleticism and better physique and build and
some other things going for him that clearly so far

(08:28):
to share it does. Not but my argument there Was
francis is going to get fast tracked and he's not
going to be ready for the elite by the time
they make him face the, elite and he's going to
get exposed and probably. Badly AND i was on record
at multiple points SAYING i think that there's a very
real chance that at some point he actually does win

(08:50):
THE ufc heavyweight. Title it's just not going to be
the first time they actually have him fight for. It
he's going to be rushed to. It it's gonna be
too much too. Soon well then what do you, know Fight.
STEPEMOCIC i pick and bet Against francis With stepe who
was an underdog, there and then he obviously gets dominated and. Exposed,
well then they do the, rematch AND i actually picked

(09:11):
and Bet francis when he was the underdog for the,
rematch and then it Was stepe who didn't get, exposed
but did get kind of shown to not be at
the elite level, anymore as it was a bad beat
down in the beginning of the end of his. Career,
so AS i talk about all the time on these,
podcasts a fighter winning A ufc, title a lot of

(09:32):
times it's actually not about them being the best fighter
in the division or in the world at that point in,
time sometimes not even over the course of a year
or two while they hold the. Title what happens is
is just the timing of things and who gets the
title shots at certain, points and who they happen to
defend against or who the contender happens to try to
capture it. Against and so you'll have a situation Where Francis,

(09:55):
hagan who was rushed and clearly was not ready for,
it and if THE ufc had re realize that and
gave him some more time to, mature and didn't you
have such a thin heavyweight division where they were kind
of forced to rush, him, well then maybe they could
have had it play out in a manner where he
goes undefeated and doesn't lose that first title. Fight but
because of the way things played out and the timing of,

(10:16):
it clearly it wasn't that he was never going to be,
elite that he was never going to win the, title
or that he could never beat even the Step A.
Miocic it just was the timing of the. Matter so
given that we have Here, tashera who's only twenty, five
very young for this, division again a, BABY i think
that obviously he's going to improve over, time that doesn't

(10:36):
need to be, said and maybe at some point he
could become a legitimate contender and actually a threat to
the heavyweight title and maybe even win. It BUT i
think that's certainly a ways, off and THE ufc is
most likely going to fast track him and at some
point in the probably not too distant, future he's probably
going to be a good fade because again he is

(10:58):
very flawed in a variety of. Way so in this
FIGHT i hope he gets By Derek lewis BECAUSE i
will not be betting against him. HERE i will not
be betting on him certainly either though at over two to,
one of, Course BUT i do think he's going to
get the job. Done as for the stylistic breakdown and
as to WHY i think he will still get the job, done,

(11:19):
well on one, hand talk About Derrick, lewis he's just
not a very skilled technical fighter. Himself as he talks,
about you, know his style is swinging and. Banging that's
certainly very. True he goes out there and he just
throws with reckless abandon and it's killer be. Killed and
he's not very. Durable he's not very, resilient not only

(11:39):
in terms of his pure chin and durability in the
sense of getting knocked, out but also he's shown a
little bit of quitting him as. Well doesn't have great
mental resilience at times. Either so in the case of his,
offense his best, ability it's basically just go out there
and brawl like a. Madman, now he does have some good, moments,
like for, example when he picked up on some reads

(12:02):
Against curtis blades and is able to get a brutal
knockout on him with the. Uppercut so he's, not you,
know just a complete caveman out. There but generally, speaking
he's not the most technical or tactical. Fighter he makes
a lot of fundamental, mistakes both in terms of the
types of technique that he has to, offer but also
just in terms of his game. Planning it's usually pretty.

(12:23):
Unwise there's clear stylistic advantages you'll have in a fight
that he just doesn't take advantage, of and so on
and so. Forth so in the case Of Derek, lewis
he's pretty much a. Brawler he does not have good takedown.
Defense it's actually quite, poor although he is great at
again kind of like you know, how he's a swinging
and banging on the, feet not really, technical just makes

(12:44):
things work then when they kind of. Shouldn't same thing
with the, grappling he just stands. Up literally the man
at times will get taken down and mounted and we'll
just stand. Up so he'll go against fighters who are
technical strikers at least more technical than, him and then
he swings and bangs and gets a first round ko
and he goes against fighters who are significantly better grapplers

(13:06):
and jiu jitsu players than, him and he somehow just stands.
Up SO i certainly wouldn't recommend fighters following his footsteps
with these, things but to his, credit he does find
a way to make them work a lot of the,
times which is kind of wild to. See but, obviously
when he goes against real technicians like say a Jaelton,

(13:27):
almeta he gets stuck on the ground for an extended
duration round after, round and when he goes against real great,
strikers he gets bludgeoned for the most, Part so there
are certainly limitations still to his, game even though he
does find it find a way to make things work
better than they. Should in the case Of, tashia AS
i talked about on the, feet he's kind of sloppy

(13:50):
with the way that he does. Things he keeps his
hands a bit, low drops him as he throws strikes
and especially after he has sort of a forward, moving
pressure based, style but he's very open to getting. Countered
there's times where he's good at kind of slipping in
and out of, range but when he faces fighters who
actually have any ability to actually dictate or manipulate the distance.

(14:12):
Themselves he has shown to actually have some struggles. There
we've actually seen him get beat up a bit before
coming back to win by Ko so on the, feet
which is apparently his bread and. Butter not so great
in terms of the technique. Department, basically he's just been
bigger and more powerful against pretty low level strikers and

(14:33):
low level heavyweights in. General he's been able to go
out there and, bludgeon BUT i think against more skilled
fighters that's going to be an issue for. Him, also his,
grappling haven't really seen much of, that especially in recent.
PERFORMANCES i know he does have some level of a grappling,
background but how good of an actual grappler he really.
Is i'm glad to actually see that being tested before

(14:56):
we can say for. Sure can't really make too many
assumptions when he. HAS i haven't really seen much of
his game since he gets so many early. Finishes so,
like when you're looking at what he's actually great at
in terms of techniques so, far, well we've seen. Nothing
he's been, effective but he hasn't been great on a technical.
Level he has defensive. Issues he's very hittable and even

(15:18):
again in terms of his, offense he's kind of a,
brawler so Against Derek, lewis they're probably going to go
out there and brawl in the, middle like we've seen
With derek against other, heavy powerful hitting. Strikers so we've
Seen lewis again not have the best game, plan so
just go out there and swing and, bang even when
it's not in his best. INTEREST i think that's what
he's going to do, here AND i think that's What

(15:38):
tasher is going to do as. Well To shaa probably
will be able to utilize the fact that he has
the longer range and reach. Here now not a huge reach,
advantage only four, inches but still a reach. Advantage, nonetheless
he does throw some straighter strikes Than, lewis who throws
sort of awkward looping hooks and what kind of lunge

(15:59):
was strikes at times and find himself out of. Position
SO i think, overall, yes To share should be the better,
striker and he is a little bit less, LIKELY i
shouldn't say a little. Bit he's definitely a decent amount
less likely to get into straight, brawls Whereas lewis is
perfectly willing to do. That and SO i Think lewis
will be basically just trying to, brawl and we will

(16:21):
see on the flip side To shara trying to be
a bit more, technical a bit more. Tactical even though
he's again not super great at either of those. THINGS
i just think he's better than them At lewis in
in addition to being bigger and. Rangier so probably that
will lead to him getting an early knockout, here whether
it's a legit ko Or lewis just giving. Up BUT

(16:43):
i think it'll, happen probably in the first, round maybe
even in the first half of the first. Round BUT
i do think To share probably will get the job done.
Here that being, said would not be surprised at all
if he runs into some looping overhand shot that absolutely melts.
HIM i, mean the path is there For lewis to

(17:03):
land the. Shot this dude again has a ton of defensive.
Liabilities he is just not defensively res responsible at. All
so like If lewis just absolutely nukeshim and melts him
himself early, on would not be. Surprised or if for
some reason WHICH i wouldn't expect, This but if for
some reason the fight does go, long it is a

(17:26):
five round main, EVENT i don't expect this dude to
have a good. Cardio we've Seen Derek lewis actually have
surprisingly good cardio down the, stretch seen him in five
rounders multiple, times so if there's any cardio advantage as,
WELL i would expect it to be for It Derek.
Lewis so we could see a situation here where basically
it's first ROUND ko or bust for T shira can't

(17:49):
say that for, certain but also it's kind of The
Tom aspinall situation where all of these early, finishes we
don't know what the dude's going to look like later
down the stat, stretch especially when he's clearly putting everything
into every, strike and unlike An aspinall who has at
least a finesse to his strikes and an economy of,

(18:09):
movement this dude does not just a lunging sort of
clearly putting his weight into. Things it's just it's an
ugly striking style from him and probably leads to success,
here But i'm not willing to lay minus two to
fiftyish on. It So tyles and To share will be
my pick by first ROUND, ko BUT i will not
be getting to the window on. Him and all, right

(18:32):
that will do it for the free episode of the
podcast this. Week remember, though if you're listening to this
on a platform outside The, patreon it's always posted over
on My patreon, sooner sometimes as much as several days. Sooner,
also there's a bunch of other content and fight breakdowns
and evergreen podcasts and series as well over On. Patreon

(18:54):
there's also of course the post fight, podcast which we
be going up after this, event and most importantly of
all the official. Bets it's all available on patreon dot
com Slash Furies Fight. Picks several official bets up right.
NOW i think five or six events we have play
so far on for this, week SO i think probably

(19:14):
end up with a couple dozen bets by the time
the week is all said and, done so hopefully a
big week in terms of the results by the time
it's all said and done as, well coming off a
big winning week last time out of, course big long
term results as, well all third party tracked and. Verified
those links to those records can also be found over

(19:34):
on again the patreon At patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight,
picks so hopefully you join us over. There just content
from not only, me but other multiple staff members as,
well will be posting that throughout this, week so, AGAIN
i hope you join us all over there on The.
Patreon other than, That i'm Lukay fury and thank you for.

(19:56):
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