UFC Perth Breakdown

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my free main
event preview for UFC Perth, going down this Saturday, September
twenty eighth in Australia, headlined by Carlos Olberg against Dominic Rees.
That is a fight I'll be breaking down here on
this podcast. Fun basically strikers versus striker matchup. They're both

(00:22):
a little bit well rounded, but first and foremost they
are strikers, and I expect that's how the matchup will go.
I think maybe we see some takedown attempts from one
or maybe even both, but I don't think we see
extended grappling here. I think this is going to be
a fun striking matchup for as long as it lasts.
I don't think we're going to see the judges here.
I think we probably get a finish, probably in the

(00:43):
first half of the fight. Should be a fun one
for as long as it lasts. Well. I will be
breaking down just the main event here. If you want
the rest of my breakdowns as well as a bunch
more content, make sure you check out my page that
is Patreon dot com Slash Fury's fight picks. Have a
bunch more podcast breakdowns as well as written analysis and breakdowns,
tape study notes, way and analysis. Also staff picks articles,

(01:06):
post fight podcast analysis, Luca's lecture series, Fantasy Fight Forecast series,
and more content, including most importantly of all the official
bets which are upright now for this event and more.
We were on a very nice run until we actually
took an l on the last UFC no UFC last week,
but hopefully we get back on track this week and

(01:28):
have a nice winning event here with this UFC card.
Like I said, we were on quite a heater there,
so hopefully can get back to being on that after
just a speed bump there. Again. If you want those
official bets as well as all the other content, check
out again Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. Also
remember that is the first place where this podcast is

(01:50):
always posted. Sometimes it's posted days earlier there still free,
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on certain weeks, so you can always get this podcast free,
but it's always early there as well, so again Patreon
dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks. With that aside, let's
get onto the fight breakdown here for the main event
preview that is again Carlos Oldberg against Dominic Rayes. Oldberg

(02:13):
minus two fifty favorite Rays plus T ten as the underdog.
Ah Man, here's the thing about Rayes. I know he's
made a bit of a comeback. I know he's on
a three fight winning streak, but I think this is
a complete fugazi. I don't believe in him at all
in terms of his comeback. I don't think he is
any sort of reborn fighter, and I think there are

(02:36):
issues for him that unfortunately are outside of his control
that are going to prevent him from making any kind
of comeback, no matter how hard he's working, or what
kind of focus he's having, or whatever the case may be.
Now it's not to say that he can't win this fight,
because I think that Oldberg is a very overrated prospect,
But even if he does win this fight, I still

(02:56):
don't think Rays is any kind of real championship threat.
The reason is, look at the three fight losing streak
that he had before. Look at how it happened. It
wasn't just like, oh, you know, he lost to John
Jones and he had a tough decision loss there that
some people thought he won, and then he fought some
other contenders and had you know, some gritty decision losses there,

(03:17):
maybe a submission tap out, no, no, no. He lost
to John Jones, which admittedly was one of John Jones'
worst performances, and an argument can be made for Ray
is there and that loss is not bad at all. However,
the next three fights that he lost in terms of
name value not necessarily so bad. John Behovet's Yuri Prohaska

(03:38):
and then Ryan span The ryan' Span one is obviously
not great, but the other two not exactly terrible losses. However,
it's how they happened. John Belhovit's well, he does get
some knockouts, it's usually only over bad chins, guys like
a Luke rock Hold or a guy like a Dominic Reyes.
Yury Prohaska then knocks him out with the spinning out
back elbow. In his next fight flatlines and face face

(04:00):
plants him. And then Ryan Spain, who again has some knockouts,
but it is not you know, like this massive Francis
Nganu of the light heavyweight division or something. He goes
out there and puts him out cold and in only
eighty seconds. So it wasn't just that he lost four fights,
in a row. It was the three fight losing streak,
specifically by knockout. Four fight losing streak total, but three

(04:23):
of them straight by knockout, the most recent three. Okay,
So then he goes on the comeback trail. He takes
two years off and he faces Dustin Jacoby, one of
the lower end kind of light heavyweights who still has
some staying power. Now, to be fair, he is a kickboxer,
so credit to Rays for winning that fight first round,
got the ko over him. That's nice and all, so

(04:44):
I'll give him credit there. But then decoying Anthony Smith
that means absolutely nothing. Nikita Krilov, that doesn't mean anything either.
That was his most recent one. So the Jacoby win
is not a great win, but at least it's not
I mean, it's better than Anthony Smith or krill kind
of sort of in certain ways. I suppose it's not

(05:05):
that much better than them, But that's my point here
is he had three horrible losses and then fought three
lower level guys and he beat them. Cool, so we
know he's not like completely done as a fighter. But
now people are like talking about him making a legit
comeback here as if like this guy's gonna be a
contender again. He's gonna fight for the title. The rights

(05:26):
will be or the wrongs will be made right, well,
he will actually get the decision win this time, or
maybe even a knockout, and he'll win the title that
he should have had before. It seems like people have
this weird mindset of like, well, he should have won
the belt, so now this is some sort of cosmic correction,
like he's dest and I'm like, did you watch these fights?
He didn't even that good in them, despite winning, and

(05:48):
they were against very low level opposition, and now he's
an underdog, a significant one two and a half to
one to call it Carlos Olberg, who's not that great
of a fighter himself. Like some of these people who
are just this massive believer in ray Is, I just
I don't understand where it's coming from. The only thing
I can think of is people hated John Jones so

(06:10):
much that then they attached to ray Is because they
think that he should have beat him, and so they
became such big fans of his because he kind of
beat the guy that they hate so much, and now
they're just hoping he makes a comeback. That's not really
gonna happen again. I'm not saying he can't win this fight.
My point is, even if he does, I will not

(06:30):
be a believer in the comeback unless it happens a
very specific way, which is his chin actually gets tested
here and it passes those tests. Because when you get
knocked out the way he did and you show to
have a glass jaw, that's the thing that I was
alluding to before. That is out of his control. Maybe
he's the most focused ever. Maybe he's on all the
good steroids in the world. Maybe he has the best

(06:51):
training camp now in the world, and he's the absolute
best version of himself he can be. Well, that doesn't
matter if a job's going to knock him out. The
point we're at with him where he is getting rocked
by nothing, and that is such a significant point here
because if it wasn't for that, I would actually like
his chances a bit as an underdog here, considering where

(07:12):
the price is. You know, he's obviously a very decent
underdog around two to plus two hundred DISHO on the
comeback for him. But the problem is, is he going
to get knocked out by a jab or literally anything else?
Probably that's probably the most likely result here. He might
be doing great, he might be tuning up Olberg in
the boxing, and then just one big shot and he's done.

(07:34):
It might not even be a big shot, actually, it
might just be a shot and he's done. And so
you have to understand when you have a guy who
has this bat of a chin, what you're dealing with,
and we have not seen yet that that has improved.
It's not like he went out there against Krilov and man,
they got into an absolute war and he ate a
bunch of bombs from a power puncher and ate him
and walked through them and were like, Okay, somehow something

(07:57):
that is basically physically impossible happened here where his chin
actually got better over time. Like if he does the
impossible and shows it, okay, I guess then I'll believe it.
But there's no reason to think that could ever happen
based on the known laws of the universe. So he

(08:18):
in all likelihood has an absolute total glass jaw that
is a liability against literally anyone he faces, especially someone
who's a good striker with some power like a Carlos Olberg.
So that's the main reason why I think Olberg's gonna win.
Not because I think Oldberg's a great You look at
his striking. He's not a great technician. He is kind

(08:39):
of sloppy. Like look at his Menifield win, Like, yeah, okay,
it was a quick knockout. On paper, that looks great
because Menifield just charged him like a moron. But like,
look at the punches that Olberg is throwing and landing
in route to that knockout. And this is why, you know,
you have these people who look at just like Wikipedia
and then analyze fights based on them, or they just
don't know technique at all, and they see the fights

(09:01):
and then they see something like that, they're like, oh man,
what a great performance. It's like, okay, he caught a
guy who just basically put his chin out there to
be koted, and he was incredibly sloppy, with terrible fundamentals
and also defensively irresponsible himself. This should raise all kinds
of red flags for you, because fighters who are actually
good strikers are going to be able to capitalize on

(09:23):
that sloppiness and the lack of head movement and how
he doesn't move his head off the center line while
he's throwing and he'll sloppily throw combinations while dropping his
hands in between shots and just keeping them low. In general,
there's a reason why I'm not particularly high on Olbreak,
and it's not just because I'm some hater of his
or something like that. It's there are technical reasons to

(09:44):
not actually think he is the super prospect. Now. He's
in an incredibly weak division at light heavyweight, so I mean,
it's not hard to get a title fight here, But
in terms of him actually winning the title raining over
the division, I mean, I guess it depends who the
champion is at the time and what the landscape of

(10:06):
the division looks like. Because I guess if like a
guy like Alex isn't in the vision and a guy
like Uncle Liave is out of it for some reason,
maybe one or both of them moves up to heavyweight.
You never know these days, with how fighters so quickly
move weight classes, especially if they're champions or former champions,
we might just have like a super empty division year
and then yeah, maybe he can become the champion. But
if there's a real skilled fighter at the top, especially

(10:27):
a real skilled fighter like an Alex who's skilled on
the feet, I don't see Olberg being able to win
the title in that case. And it's worth noting that
Menfield fight that I was talking about, It's not like
that was one of Oldberg's first UFC fights or something
that was just last year, Like that was just last year,
wasn't a long time ago. Also, he fought Vulcan ods

(10:49):
Demir and he didn't look bad there, but he also
didn't look great. And ods Demir is not a great fighter,
bad defense, bad chin, a gaser himself. So you know,
you look at the list of wins or Olberg hasn't
fought a lot of great opposition. The best one by
far is Jan Belhovitz in his last fight. But John's
basically completely washed at this point. And other than that,

(11:09):
it's like Jung du un E or Podieria, like this
is not exactly a murderer's row. They have very clearly
tried to elevate him as a prospect and fast track
him to a title shot. Let's not forget when he
was knocked out in his first UFC fight as well.
So in the case of Olberg, do I think he's
some total absolute bum fraud who doesn't belong in the UFC. No? No,

(11:32):
people always do this whenever I'm like, yeah, this prospect
is overrated, it's like, oh, you can only be either
the best in someone's eyes or a total fraud who's
the worst ever in someone's eyes. There is actually this
middle area where maybe you're not an elite prospect and
future champion, but you're also not a total bumm either.
You're just maybe like an upper level gatekeeper at the

(11:53):
end of the day, or maybe a contender type and
not really a real champion or reigning champion type. There's many,
many levels between elite and total fraud. And I certainly
think that Oldberg is a good fighter. I think he's
gonna last in the UFC, don't get me wrong, it's
just he's in a main event now. He's been getting
this sort of type of love lately where it seems

(12:17):
like they're very clearly trying to get any title shot soon,
and people are thinking of him as being that sort
of category of fighter, this sort of prospect that's starting
to make that step up towards that level, and I
just haven't seen the evidence of it. Like, if you're
that type of fighter, you should be going out there
and facing other guys who we know are actually contenders

(12:37):
and beating them decisively. That's when you're like, Okay, this
is the guy who's actually a real contender. This is
a guy who's actually a future champion type. He's going
out and facing bums and still showing weaknesses with like
cardio and other things like that. So in this fight,
I think he'll probably be mostly striking, and I think
that Rayos will actually give him some trouble with his boxing,

(12:58):
his combinations, his sort of awkward length that he has
as well. However, I just think at some point that
last job of Rayes is probably going to be exposed,
and he's probably going to take a shot and go
down and that will be the end of the fight.
I think it's possibly he hurts Olberg as well, of course,
but I think it's certainly more likely that Olberg hurts him.
So definitely favor Olberg in the matchup before that reason,

(13:20):
not really interested in laying two and a half to
one on him here in this spot. As I said,
there's a lot of issues with him, one of them
also concerned being his cardio. Here we have a five
rounder for him against a guy who has been five
rounds before. So if Oldberg doesn't get the KO and
we do see this fight go late. It might actually
turn into a situation where he just doesn't even have

(13:41):
the power anymore to hurt Rayes. And we've seen Reyes
go five rounds and be good down the stretch, and
Rayes ends up actually taking over down the stretch and
winning because now it's like he actually has a good
chin suddenly, because Olberg just lacks so much power, and
now the technique and the combinations and the pace and
the volume and the cardio of rays are actually able
to shine through. So it's kind of one of those

(14:02):
fights where it's like either of them technically could win early,
but most likely it would be Olberg in the first
half or ray As if you can survive, maybe maybe
ray Is then can actually find a way to either
stop Olberg late or even just win a decision. So
I do think it's kind of a tale of two
fights in that area and or in that way, and

(14:25):
so from a live betting perspective, it's something to watch
out for. I would say, yeah, going in Dogger Pass
not in love with rays here. I probably won't get
to the window on him, to be honest, But I
just think in terms of where the odds are yet's
just kind of automatically dogger pass. I just wouldn't bet
Olberg at this price, but I just don't want to
betray Is either considering you know again, he literally might

(14:47):
get knocked out by a jab in four seconds here.
They're a real possibility. So in terms of betting angle,
maybe look at totals or look at live betting. But
in terms of a straight up prediction, I do think
Olberg is the more likely winner, probably by knockout in
the first half of the fight. And now we'll do
it for this free episode of the podcast. But remember
a bunch more fight breakdowns, including more podcast breakdowns, written breakdowns,

(15:11):
post fight shows, all over on my page as well
as of co of course, most importantly the official bets.
Check it all out at patreon dot com Slash Furies
Fight Picks official bets up right now for this UFC
and more check it out otherwise. Hopefully we see you
over there for the rest of that content this week.
I'll be back for some more podcasts over there. I'll

(15:33):
be doing the rest of the breakdowns probably Thursday, and
then staff picks will be going up Friday post fight
show Saturday or Sunday and then official bets. Like I said,
already up now and we'll probably be well, they'll definitely
be some more being posted throughout the week too, so again,
hopefully we see you join us over there for the
rest of that stuff Patreon dot com slash Furies fight

(15:56):
Picks Otherwise. Either way, hopefully you guys have a good
rest of your week and more importantly went on your
bets for this UFC. Good luck on all of them
until next time. I'm Luka Fiury and thank you for listening.