Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC Vegas one three that is headlined by
Manel cop against USU Alma Baiev. Not exactly the UFC's
best offering top to bottom here, i will admit, but
hopefully it does offer some opportunities at least to make
(00:22):
some good money from a betting perspective. I'll be breaking
down the rest of the card over on mypatreon that's
patreon dot com. Slash Fury's fight picks. Also have a
bunch of official bets up right now for this card
as well as the next one that's UFC three thirteen.
We have eight straight weeks of UFC here, so busy
(00:43):
schedule with some nice money making opportunities. Did win plus
four units last week, three units on UFC, one unit
on other MMA events, so we do also bet the
other MMA events, not just UFCS here, so make sure
you check it out all over again on the patreon
that's patreon dot com slash Furies Fight picks. All those
bets are a third party tracked and verified of course,
(01:05):
made about seventy five units last year, one hundreds of
units long term. With that aside, let's get to the
fight breakdown here of the main event of again UFC
Vegas one three manel Cop is the betting favorite. Best
available price is minus two twenty comeback on ASU is
plus one eighty cop. He is a bit of a
(01:29):
tricky fighter to bet as a decent sized favorite. As
I always talk about him, he's a bit of a
headcase in the cage. Not the best fighter Q, not
the best decision making. He does shoot himself in the
foot repeatedly. He is athletic, he's powerful, He's overall talented
and a bit well rounded. The problem is he just
isn't always as consistent as you would like in there.
(01:52):
In this fight, it's basically another IQ test type of
matchup for him. If he doesn't mess up in a
bad way, he probably should be home free. Here it's
a five rounder. He should have cardio that's fine for
the five rounds. Neither of them has particularly high pace
or volume. Cop he does tend to try to kind
of slow fights down, pick his spots, and then he
(02:14):
does have good power for this division, some of the
better power. He's pretty quick and explosive too, so he
basically kind kind of likes to slow down the pace
of fights, pick his spots for these big potential either
finishing blows or the type of shots that rock his opponents,
or change the dynamic of the fight or stealed around
for him. The danger for that is that sometimes he
(02:36):
can get out volume for periods. Now in this matchup,
probably not too much of an issue for him. He's
going against somebody who's again also relatively low volume. Also,
Osu was not particularly good with his hands, where his
boxing should be a good advantage for Cop in that department,
Osu could have some success with his kicks, but copying
kick as well. He can throw a variety of different
(02:57):
types of strikes, so he's not just dangerous with his hands.
But if Osu was going to have any success on
the feet, it probably is going to be just with
the kicks. But if Us is going to win the fight,
he probably has to get takedowns here. Now the question
is can he and I don't think that he can
as long as Cop is actually fighting intelligently. As I
mentioned Cop, he will get inconsistent, he will shoot himself
(03:20):
in the foot, he will make dumb mistakes, he will
get over zealous. That's a concern for him in any fight,
but also here as well. If he fights actually smart,
if he fights measured, if he fights composed, he should
probably be able to stuff the takedowns. We've seen him
stuff them from better wrestlers before, and on the feet.
As I mentioned, he's much more danger with his hands
(03:41):
in the boxing range, and at kicking range, they're probably
around even again, the only dangerous spot there is for Cop.
It's not to say that he's at a disadvantage from
the kicking distance. It just that's the only real area
where us who can have success, whereas if they're in
boxing range should be very very good for a cop here.
So basically, avoid takedowns and you probably go out there
(04:03):
and win the fight, whether it's by stoppage or a
five round decision. If you are a cop, you know, generally,
given the stylistic matchup, given the athletic differential, given the
overall skilled deferential, the fact that Cop is more well rounded,
he's more dangerous. He's faster, he's the better athlete, he
has a better cardio. He doesn't necessarily have the better pace,
but he has more damaging shots. That makes up for
(04:25):
the fact that they both have low pace. So like,
what are the real advantages here for OSU. It's well,
if he can find a way to have COP make
a mistake or force him to make a mistake, then
he could potentially take advantage to get the takedown. But
even if he gets the takedown, is he going to
submit Cop? Probably not. Cop should be able to survive. Now,
(04:46):
maybe he makes a mistake on the ground and gets
himself submitted, but probably would be able to survive even
if he does get taken down here. So it's probably
going to take repeated takedowns, multiple takedowns throughout the five
rounder here for Asu, if he's going to get the win.
So it just does seem unlikely for me that he
does ultimately find a way to get his hand raised.
I do feel like this should be a COP win
(05:06):
on paper, skill wise, the style wise, it just everything
does tend to favor him, except for the fact that, again,
this dude does love to shoot himself in the foot
in his bouts, so that is always a concern for him. Now,
in some of his bouts you've seen him being like
minus four hundred and above, so he's not that here.
That does make him into a more tempting range from
(05:27):
a betting perspective, if you're just looking at it purely
as a relative value compared to where he usually is.
But still even at only minus two twenty, I just
I can't lay money on him given the way he
loves to shoot himself in the foot. Like I've watched
this guy outside the UFC back in the day. I
know he's improved a lot since then, but basically this
has been hism his entire career, and he still does
(05:49):
it at times in the UFC. Now it hasn't been
too hasn't been as often of an occurrence, but it
still does show its face at times, and I feel
like it is going to show its face once again.
It'll probably be in a big moment where it ultimately
leads to him losing once again. So it's not like he's,
you know, gone out there and just made some minor
mistakes and I'm you know, really just holding him to
(06:10):
the fire for it. No, he's made massive mistakes. He's
lost fights because of these mistakes. He's made easy fights
and do difficult fights because of these mistakes, and I
just am still very concerned about them. So I do
think ultimately, yeah, he should be the more likely winner
here for the reasons I mentioned, I will still favor him.
I still will pick him as my official prediction, but
(06:32):
a five rounder does give him a lot of time
to make one of those big mistakes and mess up here.
So ultimately he'll be my proficial prediction, but I'm not
going to be playing him. But of course, if you
do want all of the official bets for this week
for not just this UFC but other MMA events as
well as future events including UFC three thirteen, which we
already have up now that's next week's UFC card, check
(06:54):
them all out over on the official bet page on
the Patreon that is Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks.
We have several bets up now, made four units last week,
made around seventy five units last year, hundreds of units
long term, all third party tracked and verified. You only
need to be betting about less than five dollars a unit,
(07:16):
not even five dollars a unit to make back the
membership cost and still profit on top of that, so
fantastic return on investment. Highly encourage you to check it
out again. Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks also
have several other pieces of content up there, including more
podcast breakdowns for the rest of the card, written breakdowns,
(07:37):
sheet sheets, various different content in those, weigh in analysis,
fighter tape, study notes, all sorts of good stuff in those.
Also have staff pick articles, post fight podcasts as well.
Going to be starting some live streams again in the
near future too, so the sole free podcast here is
just a sliver of the content available over on again
(07:58):
Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks, so hope to
see you over there for the rest of the fight week.
Other than that, good luck on all of your bets
this weekend. I'm Luka Fury and thank you for listening.
Greetings. I'm Luca Fury, and welcome to my main event
preview for UFC Vegas one three that is headlined by
Manel cop against USU Alma Baiev. Not exactly the UFC's
best offering top to bottom here, i will admit, but
hopefully it does offer some opportunities at least to make
(00:22):
some good money from a betting perspective. I'll be breaking
down the rest of the card over on mypatreon that's
patreon dot com. Slash Fury's fight picks. Also have a
bunch of official bets up right now for this card
as well as the next one that's UFC three thirteen.
We have eight straight weeks of UFC here, so busy
(00:43):
schedule with some nice money making opportunities. Did win plus
four units last week, three units on UFC, one unit
on other MMA events, so we do also bet the
other MMA events, not just UFCS here, so make sure
you check it out all over again on the patreon
that's patreon dot com slash Furies Fight picks. All those
bets are a third party tracked and verified of course,
(01:05):
made about seventy five units last year, one hundreds of
units long term. With that aside, let's get to the
fight breakdown here of the main event of again UFC
Vegas one three manel Cop is the betting favorite. Best
available price is minus two twenty comeback on ASU is
plus one eighty cop. He is a bit of a
(01:29):
tricky fighter to bet as a decent sized favorite. As
I always talk about him, he's a bit of a
headcase in the cage. Not the best fighter Q, not
the best decision making. He does shoot himself in the
foot repeatedly. He is athletic, he's powerful, He's overall talented
and a bit well rounded. The problem is he just
isn't always as consistent as you would like in there.
(01:52):
In this fight, it's basically another IQ test type of
matchup for him. If he doesn't mess up in a
bad way, he probably should be home free. Here it's
a five rounder. He should have cardio that's fine for
the five rounds. Neither of them has particularly high pace
or volume. Cop he does tend to try to kind
of slow fights down, pick his spots, and then he
(02:14):
does have good power for this division, some of the
better power. He's pretty quick and explosive too, so he
basically kind kind of likes to slow down the pace
of fights, pick his spots for these big potential either
finishing blows or the type of shots that rock his opponents,
or change the dynamic of the fight or stealed around
for him. The danger for that is that sometimes he
(02:36):
can get out volume for periods. Now in this matchup,
probably not too much of an issue for him. He's
going against somebody who's again also relatively low volume. Also,
Osu was not particularly good with his hands, where his
boxing should be a good advantage for Cop in that department,
Osu could have some success with his kicks, but copying
kick as well. He can throw a variety of different
(02:57):
types of strikes, so he's not just dangerous with his hands.
But if Osu was going to have any success on
the feet, it probably is going to be just with
the kicks. But if Us is going to win the fight,
he probably has to get takedowns here. Now the question
is can he and I don't think that he can
as long as Cop is actually fighting intelligently. As I
mentioned Cop, he will get inconsistent, he will shoot himself
(03:20):
in the foot, he will make dumb mistakes, he will
get over zealous. That's a concern for him in any fight,
but also here as well. If he fights actually smart,
if he fights measured, if he fights composed, he should
probably be able to stuff the takedowns. We've seen him
stuff them from better wrestlers before, and on the feet.
As I mentioned, he's much more danger with his hands
(03:41):
in the boxing range, and at kicking range, they're probably
around even again, the only dangerous spot there is for Cop.
It's not to say that he's at a disadvantage from
the kicking distance. It just that's the only real area
where us who can have success, whereas if they're in
boxing range should be very very good for a cop here.
So basically, avoid takedowns and you probably go out there
(04:03):
and win the fight, whether it's by stoppage or a
five round decision. If you are a cop, you know, generally,
given the stylistic matchup, given the athletic differential, given the
overall skilled deferential, the fact that Cop is more well rounded,
he's more dangerous. He's faster, he's the better athlete, he
has a better cardio. He doesn't necessarily have the better pace,
but he has more damaging shots. That makes up for
(04:25):
the fact that they both have low pace. So like,
what are the real advantages here for OSU. It's well,
if he can find a way to have COP make
a mistake or force him to make a mistake, then
he could potentially take advantage to get the takedown. But
even if he gets the takedown, is he going to
submit Cop? Probably not. Cop should be able to survive. Now,
(04:46):
maybe he makes a mistake on the ground and gets
himself submitted, but probably would be able to survive even
if he does get taken down here. So it's probably
going to take repeated takedowns, multiple takedowns throughout the five
rounder here for Asu, if he's going to get the win.
So it just does seem unlikely for me that he
does ultimately find a way to get his hand raised.
I do feel like this should be a COP win
(05:06):
on paper, skill wise, the style wise, it just everything
does tend to favor him, except for the fact that, again,
this dude does love to shoot himself in the foot
in his bouts, so that is always a concern for him. Now,
in some of his bouts you've seen him being like
minus four hundred and above, so he's not that here.
That does make him into a more tempting range from
(05:27):
a betting perspective, if you're just looking at it purely
as a relative value compared to where he usually is.
But still even at only minus two twenty, I just
I can't lay money on him given the way he
loves to shoot himself in the foot. Like I've watched
this guy outside the UFC back in the day. I
know he's improved a lot since then, but basically this
has been hism his entire career, and he still does
(05:49):
it at times in the UFC. Now it hasn't been
too hasn't been as often of an occurrence, but it
still does show its face at times, and I feel
like it is going to show its face once again.
It'll probably be in a big moment where it ultimately
leads to him losing once again. So it's not like he's,
you know, gone out there and just made some minor
mistakes and I'm you know, really just holding him to
(06:10):
the fire for it. No, he's made massive mistakes. He's
lost fights because of these mistakes. He's made easy fights
and do difficult fights because of these mistakes, and I
just am still very concerned about them. So I do
think ultimately, yeah, he should be the more likely winner
here for the reasons I mentioned, I will still favor him.
I still will pick him as my official prediction, but
(06:32):
a five rounder does give him a lot of time
to make one of those big mistakes and mess up here.
So ultimately he'll be my proficial prediction, but I'm not
going to be playing him. But of course, if you
do want all of the official bets for this week
for not just this UFC but other MMA events as
well as future events including UFC three thirteen, which we
already have up now that's next week's UFC card, check
(06:54):
them all out over on the official bet page on
the Patreon that is Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks.
We have several bets up now, made four units last week,
made around seventy five units last year, hundreds of units
long term, all third party tracked and verified. You only
need to be betting about less than five dollars a unit,
(07:16):
not even five dollars a unit to make back the
membership cost and still profit on top of that, so
fantastic return on investment. Highly encourage you to check it
out again. Patreon dot com Slash Furies Fight Picks also
have several other pieces of content up there, including more
podcast breakdowns for the rest of the card, written breakdowns,
(07:37):
sheet sheets, various different content in those, weigh in analysis,
fighter tape, study notes, all sorts of good stuff in those.
Also have staff pick articles, post fight podcasts as well.
Going to be starting some live streams again in the
near future too, so the sole free podcast here is
just a sliver of the content available over on again
(07:58):
Patreon dot com slash Furies Fight Picks, so hope to
see you over there for the rest of the fight week.
Other than that, good luck on all of your bets
this weekend. I'm Luka Fury and thank you for listening.
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