"Calm Before the Storm: Monitoring Potential Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic"

In the past 24 hours, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and affiliated weather agencies have reported no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, but they continue to closely monitor a handful of disturbances with potential impacts for coastal regions. A slow-moving tropical disturbance is currently situated over the northern Gulf of Mexico, south of New Orleans, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While the National Hurricane Center assigns only a 10 percent chance of this system developing into a tropical depression in the next day or two, it is expected to push deep tropical moisture into southeast Texas and Louisiana through the weekend. This spells a risk for locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds over 40 mph, and momentary street flooding, primarily in southeast Texas. ABC13 has declared a Weather Watch for the region, advising residents to remain alert for sudden changes and the possibility of scattered tropical downpours[4].

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, two tropical waves are being tracked. One is progressing through the eastern Caribbean near 68W, affecting regions from the Mona Passage down into northwestern Venezuela. It is accompanied by scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly over Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Another wave is located in the central Caribbean, positioned near 78W from Jamaica south into Panama and Colombia, but at present, it is not associated with significant convection or storm organization. The western Caribbean tropical wave from earlier this week appears to have merged into the central Caribbean feature[1].

Farther east, the monsoon trough and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) stretch from West Africa into the tropical Atlantic. Satellite imagery notes widely scattered moderate convection along these lines, but there is currently no sign of imminent cyclogenesis from these disturbances[1]. The National Hurricane Center underscores that the next week carries no substantial risk of tropical cyclone formation across the Atlantic basin, though seasonal climatology points to a ramp-up of storm activity later in August[2][3].

Beyond tropical rain, Saharan dust has begun to drift across the Caribbean and into parts of the southeastern United States, causing hazy skies and potentially lowering air quality in places like Florida, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. Meteorologists caution that while the dust will make for vibrant sunrises and sunsets, individuals with respiratory sensitivities should take precautions as concentrations may remain slightly elevated through the coming days[2][4].

Looking ahead, experts remind coastal residents that the heart of hurricane season lies ahead. NOAA continues to predict an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season due to warm sea surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions. As late August approaches, the probability of named storm formation typically increases, so ongoing vigilance is urged even during the current lull[3][4].

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
In the past twenty four hours, NOAHS National Hurricane Center
and affiliated weather agencies have reported no active tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic basin, but they continue to closely monitor
a handful of disturbances with potential impacts for coastal regions.
A slow moving tropical disturbance is currently situated over the

(00:20):
northern Gulf of Mexico south of New Orleans, producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. While the National Hurricane Center assigns only
a ten per cent chance of this system developing into
a tropical depression in the next day or two, it
is expected to push deep tropical moisture into Southeast Texas
and Louisiana through the weekend. This spells a risk for

(00:43):
locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds over forty miles per hour,
and momentary street flooding, primarily in Southeast Texas. ABC thirteen
has declared a weather watch for the region, advising residents
to remain alert for sudden changes and the possibility of
scattered tropical downpours. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, two tropical waves

(01:04):
are being tracked. One is progressing through the Eastern Caribbean
near sixty eight bouts affecting regions from the Mona Passage
down into northwestern Venezuela. It is accompanied by scattered heavy
showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly over Hispaniola and the Mona Passage.
Another wave is located in the Central Caribbean, positioned near

(01:25):
seventy eight watts from Jamaica south into Panama and Colombia,
but at present it is not associated with significant convection
or storm organization. The Western Caribbean tropical wave from earlier
this week appears to have merged into the Central Caribbean
feature farther east the monsoon trough and intertropical convergence zone,

(01:46):
itcz stretch from West Africa into the tropical Atlantic. Satellite
imagery notes widely scattered moderate convection along these lines, but
there is currently no sign of imminent cyclogenesis from these disturbances.
The National Hurricane Center underscores that the next week carries
no substantial risk of tropical cyclone formation across the Atlantic basin,

(02:10):
though seasonal climatology points to a ramp up of storm
activity later in August two. Beyond tropical rain, Saharan dust
has begun to drift across the Caribbean and into parts
of the southeastern United States, causing hazy skies and potentially
lowering air quality in places like Florida, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic. Meteorologists caution that while the dust will

(02:34):
make for vibrant sunrises and sunsets, individuals with respiratory sensitivities
should take precautions as concentrations may remain slightly elevated through
the coming days. Four Looking ahead experts remind coastal residents
that the heart of hurricane season lies ahead. Noah continues
to predict an above normal twenty twenty five Atlantic hurricane

(02:57):
season due to warm sea surface temptemperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions.
As late August approaches, the probability of named storm formation
typically increases, so ongoing vigilance is urged even during the
current lull. Four