"Quiet Hurricane Season Lull Masks Potential Threats Ahead"

The past 24 hours have seen a relatively quiet picture in terms of major hurricane alerts and warnings across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. As of early July 20, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center have confirmed there are no active tropical cyclones in these basins, and no coastal warnings are currently in effect. This matches reporting from both national weather agencies and leading news outlets, signaling a temporary lull following the above-normal hurricane season forecast issued earlier this year.

Despite the calm, meteorologists remain on alert as the National Hurricane Center tracks a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. This disturbance has started to draw attention due to increased organization, with forecast models suggesting the possibility of it becoming a tropical depression or even a named storm by the start of next week. However, forecasters stress that strengthening beyond that is uncertain. High wind shear is expected near Puerto Rico and the Caribbean by late next week, which could significantly disrupt the system and limit its further development. At this stage, there is no projected threat to the United States, with models indicating it will remain over open waters for the foreseeable future.

Across the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Flossie has continued as a Category 3 major hurricane. Nonetheless, it is tracking westward, away from the Mexican coast, and is expected to decrease in intensity as it encounters cooler water and less favorable conditions. No landfall is projected, and no warnings have been issued for Mexican or California coastal areas, underscoring an overall low immediate risk to populated regions.

The broader context comes from NOAA’s seasonal outlook and forecasts by academic partners, which call for an above-normal number of Atlantic tropical systems this year. Factors contributing to this above-average prediction include historically similar years—such as 2008 with Hurricane Ike and 2017 with Harvey—that saw significant impacts for Gulf Coast states. Still, not every analog year resulted in major U.S. landfalls, highlighting the unpredictable nature of hurricane trajectories and intensities.

Looking ahead, close attention will focus on the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic as it moves westward, as well as the ongoing evolution of atmospheric conditions that could favor development of new systems as the hurricane season enters its most active phase. Forecasters stress the importance of remaining prepared in coastal regions, especially as late July and August typically bring heightened tropical activity in both the Atlantic and the Pacific basins.