Two Tropical Systems Brewing in the Atlantic: What You Need to Know

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued updated guidance over the past 24 hours as the Atlantic hurricane season begins to show signs of activity. As of this morning, two systems in the Atlantic basin are being closely monitored for potential tropical development, with one presenting early signs of formation in the eastern Caribbean.

The first area of interest is located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. The system is currently disorganized but is producing pockets of thunderstorm activity. NOAA forecast models suggest that as the disturbance moves westward toward warmer waters, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development later this week. The NHC gives it a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, though those chances increase slightly looking toward the 7-day outlook.

A second disturbance is being tracked in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While relatively compact, this system has generated significant rainfall over parts of southern Mexico and portions of Central America. The NHC reports that the disturbance is expected to move slowly and remain near the coast, potentially limiting further development. However, heavy rains across already waterlogged regions could lead to flash flooding and mudslides through midweek. Local authorities have issued flood alerts in various parts of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico in anticipation of further rain.

Meanwhile, NOAA climatologists continue to watch broader seasonal patterns. The latest update links rising Atlantic Ocean temperatures with a higher-than-normal probability of tropical development over the coming weeks. Sea surface temperatures across much of the Main Development Region remain significantly above average for early June. Meteorologists from The Weather Channel and AccuWeather have echoed these concerns, noting that warm water can fuel rapid storm intensification once systems begin to form.

At present, there are no named storms or hurricanes active in the Atlantic, and no coastal warnings or hurricane watches are in effect for the United States or Caribbean territories. However, residents in coastal regions are being advised to remain alert and to begin early preparations for hurricane season, which officially began on June 1.

Looking ahead, forecasters will be paying close attention to the eastern Caribbean system as it approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week. If development continues, it could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to parts of the region by the weekend. The Gulf disturbance is also expected to linger and potentially deliver several more inches of rain. The next NHC advisory will provide additional clarity on formation potential and track for both systems.