August 14, 2025 • 55 mins
India's buying cheap Russian oil. Trump's not happy. And now he's slapped 50% tariffs on Indian goods. Officially, it's about funding Russia's war machine. Unofficially? It might be about one man's ego, a Nobel Peace Prize dream, and India refusing to play along.
From the MEA's unusually sharp statement to the PM's vow to "pay any price to protect farmers," we unpack the real stakes amid the India-US showdown over tariffs.
- Is India's "multi-alignment" foreign policy reaching breaking point?
- Why agriculture is a red line in India-US trade talks.
- How diplomats handle unpredictable leaders like Donald Trump.
- The shift in India's diplomatic tone - and why a career diplomat as EAM matters.
- Will India hit back with counter-tariffs or play the long game?
Veteran national security journalist Sandeep Unnithan joins host Dev Goswami to decode this latest round of diplomatic warfare -- from South Block's air-conditioned strategy rooms to the high-stakes oil politics of Moscow and Washington.
Produced by Garvit Srivastava
Sound mixed by Rohan Bharti
From the MEA's unusually sharp statement to the PM's vow to "pay any price to protect farmers," we unpack the real stakes amid the India-US showdown over tariffs.
- Is India's "multi-alignment" foreign policy reaching breaking point?
- Why agriculture is a red line in India-US trade talks.
- How diplomats handle unpredictable leaders like Donald Trump.
- The shift in India's diplomatic tone - and why a career diplomat as EAM matters.
- Will India hit back with counter-tariffs or play the long game?
Veteran national security journalist Sandeep Unnithan joins host Dev Goswami to decode this latest round of diplomatic warfare -- from South Block's air-conditioned strategy rooms to the high-stakes oil politics of Moscow and Washington.
Produced by Garvit Srivastava
Sound mixed by Rohan Bharti
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is India Today Podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome to season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
Deve Goswami, and every week I sit down with experts
and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
to decode all things to do with India security and
explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
(00:27):
stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength. This is in our Defense.
Welcome to Another Defense. This week we go from bunkers
to the air conditioned officers in the South. Talk from
fighter jets firing missiles to paragraphs of words being sent
by noteworbals, the world and art of diplomatic warfare. It's
(00:49):
been a pretty interesting week and to discuss this with
me is sand Hey, sndy, how are you good to be?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
The crazy week? That's crazy week? Newspact not completing. So
what's happened this week?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Trump has slapped India with a total of fifty percent
tariffs on goods physically being sent to the US. For now,
I think that twenty five percent tranch is active. The
other twenty five percent that he announces the day before
when we record this will be taking effect in twenty
one days, is what the orders signed by the President
of the US says. He's basically mad that India's.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Buying cheap Russian oil.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
But you know, the best was pretty much oky with
it up until some time ago when India was doing
that and helping the.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Global groop prices stay safe, stable, stabilized it.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
But now it's become a problem from him for him
because I think he thinks in his head that India's
purchases are fueling the Russian war machine in Ukraine and
basically sort of you know, not helping him end that war.
And you know, have another claim at the Nobel Peace
Price that he sore dearly wants, and so they're in
(01:59):
this mess. I was going to start this episode with
this pretty strong MEA statement that came out a couple
of days ago. This was before the additional tariffs kicking
actually arounced by Trump or even the threat of it.
Actually it was I think a reaction to Trump announcing
the first twenty five percent UH tariff on Indian goods.
That statement by a MEA was unusually strong. A lot
(02:19):
of commentators took note of it that this is not
usually the way THEMEA, the Indian Ministry of Affairs reacts
and speaks about the US especially uh. But before we
get to that, actually deep, I wanted to draw out
to talk to you about something that I thought was
very coincidental. But right the day later, the day after
(02:42):
the MEA statement, you had the Indian Army's Eastern Command
putting out the tweet, the tweet that said, uh uh,
it was a throwback tweet that you know, we're reminding
people just fi what happened.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
This day that year.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Is that this day that year, the US arms worth
two billion dollars worshipped to Pakistan.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
This was a this was a headline from back then.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Well over the last twenty years. Yeah, yeah, from the
Black seventies. But this day that year was basically this
headline was printed that in that year. So that's even
the armies throwing shit at the US. Now do you
think there was a coincidence or it was just like
it was actually interesting, It's.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Not a coincidence. Of course, everyone was looking at, you know,
things very carefully and I just checked that that tweet
hasn't been deleted, yes, which means there is like all
of instant command approach and putting out that tweet. I
think everyone's a little disgusted with what's going on they,
you know, especially considering where Indo US relations have come
(03:40):
from at least from nineteen seventy one. Nineteen seventy one
is possibly the lowest point that India US relations have
ever been. Right with Nixon and Kissinger in the White House,
you know, all kinds of names that Missus Gandhi was
called by them, it's almost unprintable. And then you have this, uh,
you know, open support of the military dictatorship in Pakistan.
(04:03):
And you just have to read the Blood telegram to
know how outraged even the US diplomats were. And this
is Archer Blood whose telegrams went out to the State
Department where he says, look, American arms are being used
to butcher innocent Pakistani civilians. You know, from there we
came to this stabilization of ties from two thousand and on,
(04:25):
that historic Clinton visit, five day Clinton visit in March
of two thousand where literally the first time that a
US president visited India in two decades, twenty five years
of an India US strategic partnership, and you have President
Donald Trump literally driver truck filled with explosives into that building.
(04:48):
How much worse can it get? We don't know.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Actually, it's only begun. It's only begun. Yeah, you half
years more of President Trump. That many aspects to this.
There's obviously the Russian angle. There's the not talked about
as often, the agriculture angle. But before we get to that,
before we talk about those two issues separately, I want
to draw your attention to something that geobratics expert Michael
(05:13):
Cooleman said earlier this day, earlier to day, sorry that
this could Actually he basically did not use the word ego,
but that's what he basically pointed to by saying that,
you know, India is that only country in the world
that has refused to accept Trump's claim that he helped
end of war. We're talking about the India Pakistan contry
during operations. Hindu India has repeatedly said that it was
(05:35):
just Indian and Pakistan that brokeer the pause in fighting,
and without calling Trump a liar, has basically said that
the US played no major rule in it, apart from
just like you know, exchanging some telephone call and stuff
like that. I'm guessing Trump is not very happy with that.
So one point is that all of this actually is
just about one man's ego, just like many wars are
(05:58):
pre take on this.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Yeah, absolutely, I think you've nailed it, and you know,
so has Google Man. The fact is that it is
all about Trump, and you know they The thing is
that countries have disagreements all the time. They disagree all
the time, but all of this happens behind closed doors.
So countries don't call other countries' names, they don't certainly
(06:20):
humiliate them the way Trump has been doing that, and
he's made it into you know, a fashion statement for him.
There is nothing that's sacro science anymore. He will call
Zelenski to the White House and he'll humiliate him for
the kind of clothes that he's wearing and unleash the
Vice president on him. So this is like it's a
(06:40):
as someone said, it's like watching a car crash in
slow motion. You know, you know where it's headed and
you're almost like powerless to do anything about it. And
that's what Trump has been doing, the kind of names
that he's been calling us. He said, it's a dead economy,
and you know India is a dead economy. Yeah, sure,
we're a developing country. We have our issues with the economy,
(07:02):
but we're not a dead economy. One of the fastest
growing major economies in the world, which is why the
United States is you're doing business with us, which is
why Apple has moved its factories here to India. Right,
it's certainly not a dead economy. And then saying, you
know that that crack that he dropped about, Yeah, you know,
we're going to find oil in Pakistan and maybe India
(07:22):
can buy oil from Pakistan. You know. So to my mind,
it's like a lot of the effort that both countries
have kind of put in over the last twenty five
years since that very historic Clinton visit to India, it's
all seems to be going down the drain. And you're
watching this on a daily basis, and you know, while
I think that all of this could be temporary, Oh
(07:44):
it's a tarriff thing. You know, we have fifty percent
tarretes will probably come down, it will eventually, But it's
the whole grammar around on all of this. It's all
the tirades and you know, the open berating of India,
all of these you know, South Bloc has long memories,
(08:04):
you know, like I'm fond of saying that it took
us nearly twenty five years to come out of the
anti US camp, which is where we were for justifiable reasons.
We were with the Soviet Union. We picked aside. So
did the Americans. They chose the Pakistanis. But later when
our economy started kicking into high gear post liberalization. Look,
(08:24):
the US is not here for charity, right. They are
one of the smartest nations on Earth. They may not
win a lot of wars, but they are among the
smartest business people on the planet. And they saw where
the Indian economy was going post liberalization. They saw where
it would be twenty thirty forty years hence, and this
is how empires think, you know, and let's way say
(08:46):
the Americans are an empire. They are the continuation of
the British Empire, the Anglophone empire. Right, they saw where
India was going to be, and they wanted to partner
with India to act as a hedge against China. Right.
All of this what we've seen in the last couple
of days with Trump and all that, it's it's left
(09:07):
a very bad taste in every one's mouth. And which
is why you've seen a very measured You've seen a
lot of silence, strangely from our side. If you've noticed, Uh,
the Prime Minister was great friend of President Trump. They
had a great bernahamie at some point during his first
term up key bar Trump sarka all of that. You
remember that it's now tariffsarka too bad. But uh, there's
(09:29):
been a silence from the topmost levels of the government,
and I think that's that's puzzling, and maybe Trump is
a little surprised as well. Wise. You know, my friend
made not picked up the phone and spoken to me.
He spoke to him once just before uh Asimuni's visit
to White House, to the White House for that lunch.
(09:49):
But that was kind of to you know, uh, preempt
anything that Trump might say soon after the meeting, right,
and of course politely turned down that ambush invitation to Washington, DC.
So you know, it's I think policymakers here are a
bit baffled by what's going on. It's just the thing
(10:11):
of we knew Trump is a loose cannon. We knew
his second term would be far more unpredictable than the first,
but we didn't expect to be in the firing line.
I think that's where the biggest surprises and the thing
is that, you know, I why do we think we
are so special? They're Yes, Actually he's not spared the Brits. Right.
(10:33):
The British are the closest that any country has been
to another country. Right, they share nuclear weapons. The British
submarines fire American nuclear missiles. That's how close they are. Right,
they are the Anglo sphere. He's gone out and hammered
the Brits, He's taken on the Canadians. Yeah. So as
as the Hindi thing goes, I mean, which radish of
(10:56):
which field? Right? Why do we expect to be treated
any different from that? And I think we should have
anticipated that this this car crash, you know, coming our direction. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
I think you're right there, because I think from Trump's
first term, I think a lot of people, commentators as
well as people in India, they were very much happy
to sort of see the train wreck from far away
see and make fun of him, laugh at him, and
you know, just like, but it's going to impact us. Yeah,
but Ano that's impacting us. We suddenly realized that, oh
my god, in the middle of peace. Yeah, so yeah,
(11:30):
one part of this episode, obviously, is going to be
about India's evolving response to Trump and what he's doing,
but that's going to be a bit later. Now, I
want to talk about the two core issues at hand.
Apart from, of course, his ego that he talked about
the need for him to get his ego massaged Russia,
that's talked about because he's put it out himself that
this is basically because India's buying Russian oil. And the
(11:52):
second much more important point about agriculture. In fact, PMO
said just this morning that India's willing to pay any
price to put its farmers and cattle herders and fishermen.
Uh So we'll come to the agriculture a bit. Sorry
your topic in a bit, But the Russian oil thing,
so we've stood by, not stood by Russia, I'm sorry.
We've continued buying Russian oil ever since the Ukraine War began,
(12:14):
ever since the first set of sanctions started, truggling on
Russian Russian goods, including oil. Not so much as to
stand by Russia, like I said earlier, not because Russia
has been a sort of a friend friend person like
over the years. But it's just cheap for us, and
we have a vast economy we have, you know, we
have a huge need for oil, and it just made
(12:36):
business and economic sense to just.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Buy cheap oil levels.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Of of course, it helps that, like we've said officially
that you know, initially the West encouraged us to buy
Russian oil because that sort of helped stabilize the price.
And if I remember correctly, the initial months, India was
taking in Russian crude and exporting the refined petroleum to
the rest of the.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
World, including Europe.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
So they, I mean, we're very happy with it, but
it's now come to this and no matter if you
want to be patient, no matter you want to have
your own diploma, you want to have your own standing,
you want to stand by your convictions and feelings. But
the fact is that it's going to have some impact,
and it was something.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Right there was already a oiter's report last week.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
I'm not wrong that the Indian PSUs have paused Russian
oil purches in the last one week. Though when THEA
was asked about it, the official spokesperson run the jess
Will said that you know, it's they make sure this
is an evolving basis at the market and market couple.
But do you think at least for the near term, Yeah,
this is going to cause the reathing in terms of
(13:41):
do we or do we not by Russian oil? Do
you think whichever we go is going to be a
very fraud choice for us?
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Well, it is. It's certainly going to be a you know,
a choice that's fraught with an enormous risk. And I
think the government of India is already looking at, you know,
increasing the energy basket, you know, diversifying it and getting
more American oil the stalk of that forty seven billion
dollar trade deficit that we have, which is the primary,
(14:09):
well not the primary, but the secondary reason for Trump's angst.
The primary one, of course, being that we are buying
Russian oil, and the secondary thing is that why aren't
they buying oil from us? You know, So I think
they will. You will see in the next couple of days,
if not weeks, us buying more American oil and reducing
that trade deficit. So that's a choice that the government
(14:31):
vidia will make. So all of this is up for negotiation.
It's not it's not cast in stone. Fifty percent is
not cast in stone. It's always been you know, one
set of tariffs and then they're negotiated and they come down.
So he's been doing that with every country. He's done
that with the UK. The UK had I think they
got it thirty percent tariff thing, and it's now down
to ten. The EU also had something similar, which was
(14:55):
you know, double digit tariff, which has again come down
to about fifteen or so if I remember correctly. So
the these kind of things are all up for negotiations.
It's you know, but I think we were a little
surprised by the tone and the tenor of the statements
that came out of Trump's thing. I mean, it's not
the first time that we've faced, you know, geopolitical issues.
(15:15):
It's the first time that we've been at the receiving
end of an American president's are in a very long time.
It's not happened. I think the last American president who
said something close to what Trump is saying today is Clinton,
right after the nuclear tests of nineteen ninety eight, when
he said that, you know, India had dug itself into
(15:35):
a hole and it was for India to dig itself
out of that hole or something like that time. And
that is a one off remark, but other than that,
I can't think of any other American president who's used
these words, you know, and these words they are evabrate,
they stay with you, their bitter memories and all that.
But that said, these tariffs are up for negotiations. The
energy basket will be diversified, the Americans might get a
(15:58):
larger share of our pie that we buy, and they
would be possibly hard nosed negotiations that would begin when
the US Trade delegation comes towards the end of the month.
So it's all up for negotiations. It's all how many
cards we can put on the table. And you know,
what are the levers that we have on the United States.
(16:20):
And one big liver is of course Boeing, right, the
huge orders that we have sixty billion dollars er India
and Indigo and er India and this one Akasa indigous
with yeah, and so these two would have a large
number of orders, so that India would want to remind
the Americans that, look, we may be ordering defense equipment
(16:42):
worth you know, a billion or two billion or something,
but the commercial jets orders is huge. We're one of
the largest buyers of commercial jets in the world. So
all of these things are going to be you know,
thrashed out in the next couple of weeks towards all
of this month through August. But then you know, there
is going to be like I mean, because of the
kind of language that Trump is used, and of course
(17:03):
this other very inexplicable shift towards Pakistan. Yeah, that that
is that's baffling South Block as well. So I think
that that is something that is going to worry the
Indian policymakers, in politicians, the ministers, very very profoundly as
they're looking at this the state of you know, India
(17:26):
US relations under Donald Trump. It's surely be in six months.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Yeah, Actually it feels much longer. Actually feels like six
years already. Uh yeah, right uh. And in fact, you know,
as we record this thing, news just came earlier this
day that Field Marshall Laarsimony is set to visit the
US once again in the in the coming few days.
You don't know yet for what whether we're meeting President Trump,
but I'm guessing he probably.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
It's Gorilla's send off, is what I ask. So he's
indulging in Krilla warfare. The Central Command.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Right head right, uh right, So to the second point
then the one about agriculture and what I want to
talk to you about because this is not this is
not a subject that has been written about in depth
as such. Uh, primarily I'm guessing because you don't really
have much to go by in terms of official world
So I remember when Trump announced that you know that
the big gas board he brought out and now starts
(18:21):
on every country. He had mentioned that US would like
access to India's agricultural market. Uh, this morning, like I
said a PM mode without naming Trump, he was speaking
at a lecture for the famed Agricultural Economist Revolution where
he basically where he said that he was willing to
(18:43):
pay a personal cost, no matter what it was, to
protect India's farmers, cattle holders, and fishermen.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
What we can gather is that the US wants access
to it for for very good reason. I'm guessing the
US market has a saturation point, and India's the biggest
oft to China, so it's bes to dump products awayear,
which is a big risk for US because cheap imported
US s mall is obviously gonna het your farmers. Some
data for our listeners and viewers before you get in
overyear So the US farmer on average gets sixty one
(19:14):
thousand dollars annually in subsidies, the Indian farmer only gets
to eighty two dollars. Agriculture accounts for forty one percent of
total employment in India, while it's just around one percent
in the US at fourteen point six percent. Agriculture is
one of the biggest components of India's GDP. In the
US it's just zero point nine too close to one percent.
(19:35):
The average farm holding in the US is is one
eighty hectes.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Per person, in indiates around one heck taper person.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
This basically tells you how disadvantage the Indian farmer already
is visibly the American counterpart, and if they now have
access to our market, it's going to be it's going
to cause them trouble. India has been clear that we
are not going to move on this. Do you think
that stand will hold because I think the biggest sticking
(20:04):
point in the trade negotiations is and has been agriculture.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You know, I don't see India opening up agriculture to
the United States. Come what me? I mean They're not
going to do that. It is actually a political atom
bomb to quote Rahu in a different context, but this
this one is an atom bomb because it's a very
very emotive subject. You know, it's land, it's farmers. You
(20:31):
may not really care about the farmers, many of the
political parties I believe don't. Otherwise they wouldn't have opposed
the farm laws right a couple of years back, but
the government had to kind of roll back to those
farms farmers power by absolutely, and and the fact that
the emotive appeal of agriculture in India, I mean, at
the end of the day, we are still a very
(20:51):
we're a poor country. We're a developing country. We're primarily
an agric agrarian society which is making that transition to
manufacturing and services. Right. China has of course done that
much faster than us. The United States has done that
the fastest, possibly since the nineteenth and early twentieth century. So,
you know, for US to now open up our farm
(21:14):
sector at a time when all of those figures that
you mentioned, they're just glaring this inefficiency. The US is
a farming superpart right, it's looking for markets to dump
its produce, and India will never open up the you know,
agricultural sector for exactly precisely for the reasons that I mentioned,
the fact that it is a political time. It will
(21:35):
be suicidal for any government to do that. It would
be as I think it would. The next biggest thing
would be for any government to you know, accept the
international boundaries as they are occupied by Pakistan and China. Right,
these are non negotiables. You don't negotiate on territory and
you don't negotiate on agriculture, you know. But that said,
(21:57):
I think the Green Revolution where the Prime Minister was
speak on today about Ms swam Nathan, it is our greatest, single,
biggest achievement post independence, the fact that in the nineteen
sixties we were completely dependent on external sources to feed
our people. You know that famous pl for eighty Public
Law for eighty, which is when we would actually have
(22:19):
to call up the United States and beg them for food.
Could you send up you know, some more grain shipments please?
And then the Americans says, oh, yeah, okay, fine, we'll
do that. And then so when missus Ghandhi makes that call,
as the story goes, President Lyndon Johnson says, but why
are you voting against us the United Nations? You haven't
been very supportive of us at on the Vietnam War.
(22:42):
We weren't right. That was naked American aggression. So here's
the thing, and that's when the Green Revolution began and
missus Gandhi, as the story goes, said that don't ever
make me call an American president and beg for food.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
So I think since then, we've now now become completely
self sufficient in food. We're exporting food, and we are
also feeding eighty core people, you know, free food over
the last five years. You can debate on the utility
of that, but it's a phenomenal achievement to feed eight
hundred million people. That just tells you where you've come
(23:19):
in the last half century or so. So you know,
once again, I mean agriculture because of all of the connotations,
the political ramification, that is unlikely to be open to
the United States, and for many other reasons as well.
The GM food angle, for instance, you know, genetically modified
food is rampant in the United States and in India.
(23:41):
As you know, we've just used it for maybe cotton,
that's the only place we've allowed it, but not in
food stuffs. We have issues with the kind of food
that is fed to American cattle, for instance, which is
what makes American milk problematic for us, because there's meat
that they're feded in. You know, all of those issues.
It's a very big contentious thing. Though I feel there
(24:03):
would be some little areas where they might allow them
to enter, you know, not all of agriculture, but there
would be some given take the whole thing is given
to exactly. Yeah, they will take a maximalist position. They
will say, well, fifty percent tariffs, but then you know,
they say, Okay, we're open to negotiating on this and
this and this, And my fear is that they might
(24:25):
actually make While they hold up on agriculture, they might
make significant concessions on defense, which is on agreeing to
buy American hardware. Right, and you've seen what's happened to
countries who bought American hardware. They have literally to seek
permission to use F sixteen fighter jets. You saw that
(24:46):
with Thailand and Cambodia. And worse is the prospect of
American companies entering the Indian military industrial complex and still budding,
still budding. Yeah, so they have a fully developed I
see of a kind that no country in the world
has it's the most powerful m I see in the
history of humanity. And on the other hand, you have
(25:09):
an Indian Indigenous military industrial complex that's just budding, it's
barely twenty five years old, which you have a you've
always had a public sector, you have a mini school
private sector, and you have thousands of MSMEs, you have startups,
you have guys getting into drones, and you know, small
technologies and all that which will eventually grow. And that's
(25:30):
always been the case. Small compan they start small, they
operate out of garages, and then in what five years,
they scale up and the big place. And I've literally
seen this happen with many companies which I've visited in
the last five years, six years. They started with small,
little workshops and today they have like five and six
story buildings because they've scaled up so quickly. And they've
(25:50):
got that. These companies are at risk from the us
mi C because they're going to come in and they
going to buy out all these things. They're going to
make you know, Rameishchahans out of all of these MSMs,
and you know, drink them like bottles of coke. That's
what's gonna happen. That's my fear. But that's just my
fear guy.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
But that's a good point because that's something I was
gonna bring up eventually anyway, is that he's Trumps a businessman,
like he keeps saying, so he's gonna want concessions.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Then he's a real estate guy from the worst real
estate market in the world, the most competitive real estate
market in the world, let's face it, New York. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Uh, And negotiation is something that real estate thrives on,
so he knows that.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
So yeah, defense Uh.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Is do you think the F thirty five gonna be
a factor, because, like we've discussed in the Air Force episode,
the future road map for Indiana India's Air Force episode,
you said that the idea that you said, and you
said that mostly will what will probably happen is that
India might get some more rafults because you already have
them in service.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
You have this bare past. Uh, and then you'll go
forward with.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Your am Cup project and your stages maybe Mark to one,
Mark Mark Oney, Mark one, coming the Mark to project. Uh.
Do you think under all this pressure there might also
be anything on the F thirty five.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
I think see the F thirty five is on the
table even as you speak. There have been a couple
of opinions to the country that oh, it's off the
table and all. But everything is on the table, right,
however harsh it might sound. Even the farming sector is
open for negotiations. They would be small areas, like I
mentioned that they would try and make inroads in two
and similarly with the F thirty five as well. That
(27:27):
is also you know, a carrot that India would like
to dangle before the United States, given the fact that
Trump has offered it while Prime Minister re Mote he
was in the White House. So it's like, you know,
Trump's F thirty five offer to India, despite the fact
that the US isn't very happy with the F thirty
five either, and Trump doesn't like it. It doesn't look
(27:48):
good enough, it doesn't look you know, menacing enough. And
they're looking at a new aircraft to replace the F
thirty five and the F twenty two, so they could
possibly you know, palm of the F thirty five onto
other countries while they move up onto the six generation fighters.
But you know, here's the thing with the F thirty
five is that, given the last couple of months, the
(28:11):
kind of the grammar that they've used and you know,
using trade as a negotiating tool to stop war between
India and Pakistan. Wouldn't this make you more vulnerable the
fact that you're buying such an expensive fighter jet. What
if a US administration or president tomorrow it's it's obviously
(28:32):
not going to happen in Trump's presidency, right that the
deal will outlast his tenure and possibly go on to
spill over into his success as presidential tenure. I mean,
these things take time, right, even if it's a G
two G deal. What prevents the US administration from using
the F thirty five as a as a you know,
(28:53):
leverage against India to you know, not fight the wars
that they want you to fight. And this is what
Thailand just saw recently. The US didn't allow them to
use their F sixteens against Cambodia. So the US is
up for using all leavers, you know, commercial, diplomatic, and
indeed military. So I think in the light of that,
there would be people who would really question buying the
(29:15):
F thirty five, no matter how you know, how high
tech it is and how stealthy it is and how
much of radar evading it is, that can it evade
American sanctions. I think not.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
It's not that stealthy, right, So then I'm guessing what
probably might happen is something that I discussed in season
two often at defense, the Striker deal, because that.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Was like past their trucks. Yeah, yeah, well you can
make vehicles.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Why would you want them to want to import them
from the viewers? But that's something you can like, okay,
they can, they can, yeah, justify that.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Oh so we've taken you know, strikers, we've taken maybe
even two squadrons of F thirty five hundred. Negotiation, we
might buy more. So all of this is just going
to be put on the table. But you know, heart
of hearts, I don't think our hearts are into this now,
you know, given how for the first time in twenty
five years, we've seen open co version, you know, by
(30:09):
an American president. There have been measures in the past
with you've seen that in twenty nineteen, when India signed
that S four hundred deal with the Russian Federation, there
were warnings from the was it the Trump administration then
the Trump administration and preceding him, the Obama administration, they
wanders against buying the S four hunder because they were
(30:31):
afraid this would actually foreclose the sale of the F
thirty fives to India. The two can't co exist, right,
You can't have the frontline American fifth generation fighter jet
with you know, the best Russian air defense system picking
up the radar signatures of the other one. So that
was something that we signed. But all of this was
(30:52):
behind closed doors. And so I've spoken with the then
Defense Minister and Tarman about this and she said, look,
we've told the Americans that this is in our interest
and we need this and this is anyway I've been
signed before. This talk so initiated before the cats thing
came into effect. But all that was done closed door,
(31:13):
you know. But yere, now it is under trum. It's
my god, it's truth social social time.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Yes, so we'll talk about now how the situation may
be like at Southlock, but after.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
A quick break.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
But it is important, isn't it to also communicate what's
going to happen. Communication and comprehension both are equally important.
So now it is in the modern type of a play,
this is opie and all. Yes, we do tell them
it's just cat well scan. But if you're not in relationship,
it will be abdominal scan. If it is already in
(31:49):
a relationship, then we can do it transigenal where the
rods they can al always when it comes to uterus,
and all best results will be transigenal scan because it
will be nearer to the uterress.
Speaker 4 (31:59):
We can find not everything what is necessary, but usually
the zonologists. The technician who stays near the zonologists, they
are the people who will make them understand and take them.
But like you said in PSCs, when it is overcrowded
and all they take it for track. Times are changing
from last two and a half decades to now, a
(32:20):
huge leap in the way we talk to the patient,
attend to the natient, and the respect to the patient.
They have changed a lot. But that's just so much
to improve on us.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Welcome back something by now to talk about what's it
like for the diplomats at the AMEA headquarters, what's it
like for our ambassador in Washington, d C. There's a
famous quote of Henry Kissinger. It is actually understood out
of context. The quote says, to be an enemy of
America can be dangerous, to be a friend is fatal.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
The quote actually is understood out of context.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So what I've dug up is that he actually said
this to somebody just as Nixon was about to come
into office, and what he was saying this was during
the Vietnam or what he was saying was that if
the incoming president Nixon did not, sorry, allowed a coup
to happen, I'll phrase, And what he was saying was
that if the incoming president Nixon allowed a coup to
(33:23):
happen in Vietnam, then the world would perceive America like
so like they would believe that to be an enemy
of America is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Not hanging with their friends.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Yeah, But regardless of what Kissinger's context was, how he
meant it, don't you think Trump is doing that exact
same thing.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Yes, Trump is realizing the words of Henry Kissinger, how
much ever out of context they were and they popularly
believed to be. Trump is actually telling the world that,
you know, to be our friend is a dangerous thing,
but to be a you know, to be an adversary
is dangerous, but we have friend is fatal. Look how
he's kicking his friends around, you know, And this is
(34:05):
the thing, you know, Trump believes this is this comes
from someone else in the United States, a friend who
said that this is how Trump treats all his friends.
You have to be literally, uh, you know, completely prostrate,
sucking up to Trump, and only then will he give
you any importance. You can't be a friend with an
(34:25):
independent point of view. Elon Musk was kicked out of
the US administration. I mean though, Trump has kind of,
you know, managed to cover up and say that he's
a good guy. And this guy who paid Trump's bills
and he kicked him out because he thought he was
being too big for his boots. He treats his friends,
(34:47):
he has no he has utter contempt for his friends,
and he only admires I feel strong men like Putin,
like Shi Jinping, like the North Korean dictator Kim And
these are the people that he actually thinks are He
wants to be like them, and he respects them, and
he respects strength. He's a classic bully, right, you know.
(35:10):
So that statement from them was a way of calling
out this bully on the block and that's what Trump is.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Yeah, So then the question is how do diplomats deal
with him? Do you think it's for them? And now
I'm talking specifically about the Indian diplomats and do you
think for them it's just a matter of riding the
way about. It's just like, you know, they know at
the back of their heads that it's just three and
a half years more of this guy. So you keep
US and Trump separate, you deal with Trump separately, and
(35:41):
you deal with the larger US, sorry, the country separately.
But the follow up question to that, does that same
sentiment also hold true for the State Department, because it's
only if you can deal with them in the future.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Well, you know, I think it's a good question. By
the way, I think what the Government of India's whope
would be now is to preserve the core of the
India US strategic partnership. It is an important partnership for US,
There's no doubt about it. It's you know, it comes
out of a common fear of you know, China, a
(36:15):
rise of China. We've never had a superpower at out doorstep, right,
and today we have that superpower over two thousand, five
hundred kilometers who is in a collusive partnership with another adversary.
So it's a two front situation for US, and it
helps for US to have partners from distant shores, which
is where the United States comes in and where of
(36:36):
course the Russian Federation also comes in. But it's a
tragedy that the Russian Federation and the Americans are at
digger's drawn right now. But the fact is that the
India US strategic partnership is far too important to be
sacrificed the altar of one man's whims and that is Trump.
And I think the diplomats in South Block would be
(36:57):
very careful now to ensure that the core of the
relationship is preserved, that Trump does not do more damage
beyond what he's already done. And they would, as you said,
write the storm out to the next three and a
half years and ensure that, you know, maybe the next
occupant into the White House in twenty twenty nine is
going to be a little more reasonable than Trump. And
(37:19):
Trump is not getting a third term, and thank god
for that. I imagine a third you know, Trump term.
The Trump believes that he is he can do he
can do it and in the Constitution he's going to change.
I'm sure he's going to go kick in, kicking and screaming.
He's not going to ride quietly into the night, and
very convinced about that. At some point he will start
making this thing of saying that he was actually cheated
(37:41):
out of his second term, therefore he deserves the third term.
You will see all that kind of infantilism coming out
of Washington very soon. But for our diplomats who actually
played it very you know, have played it very carefully.
You saw that statement came out after grave provocation, after
a series of stick means that came out. So we've
not we're not falling for We're not rising to his bait, right,
(38:05):
we are doing exactly what is in our national interests.
So there are, like I mentioned, there must be a
lot of consternation and what's going on there. But everyone's
pulling out their contingencies and you know, looking at the
kind of plans that they must have drawn up for what,
you know, what's the worst that could happen? What can
happen next? I hope they've made those contingencies right, and
(38:28):
this is something that they should have done right in
January twenty twenty five, if not earlier. That. What do
we do in case Trump targets us with tariffs? How
do you react to that? What are the levers that
you you know, pull, what are the buttons you press?
What are the carrots you dangle? All of that. Because
it's an elaborate playbook. It can't be done over a
few hours, or you know, you can't be seen as
(38:51):
responding to a tweet or something. You should have your
blueprint all, you know, charted out, and I think I
hope that they've done that. I sincerely hope they've done that.
If it gets worse than this, for instance, you should
actually plan. I did say that tariffs can be negotiated,
it can come down. What if they if he's absolutely
(39:12):
insistent on fifty and says that you have to open
up the agricultural sector. What happens then? Right? What do
we do? Then? Do we go back on the US
strategic partnership? What are the areas that you know we
can cause the US some pain? Can we ask for
certain agreements that we have with them? This is a
(39:33):
SAYSMOA and the LIMO and all of that, you know,
can we pause those? Can we tell State Department that
why didn't you you know, hold this guy back before
he damages He's so far he's hit the exterior of
the building. He's actually now going to enter the building
and cause a lot of trouble. And we've spent twenty
five years building this building. So you take a call
(39:56):
whether this is where you want the next twenty five
years to be right, because we have other countries like
the Russian Federation who are very happy to do business
with us, especially when it comes to the military relationship.
I mean, I asked one of the former Bramos dgis
who was there when the Russia Ukraine War began, and
(40:17):
he told me that, you know, despite Russia fighting the war,
despite them meeting their version of the BrahMos missile, which
is the Yakhan, they ensured that our supplies of that
engine didn't go down right the the the Ramjet engine
which is literally the heart of the BrahMos missile that
comes from Russia, which passed this Brumos to Mark III. Uh,
(40:39):
they ensured that supplies were all absolutely in order. There
were no supply chain issues on the site of the
sort that we faced with American fighter jet engines, the
G four zero fours. Uh. The Russians are pretty uh,
you know, reliable and dependable when it comes to hardware
sales because they know that they there is no history
(41:00):
of Russians squeezing as over arm cells, which is and
that's the reason that we love to do business with
the Russians. I think a lot of Westerners don't get that.
You know, while American equipment is sophisticated, the engines are
so good. They have extended lives and all that they
come with heavy strings attached. Right, So this is this
(41:21):
is the kind of uh, you know, contingency planning that
they must be doing. Now. I fear that the next
couple of months is going to be a rough and
rocky ride with trumpets. It is so unpredictable, and we've
just begun six months. It's three and a half years
to go, oh god, what now? What next? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (41:40):
And in fact, even the esport hunted by there. It
was the some batteries were delivered during the Ukraine ward.
I think there was some day there, understandably so, but
they were of great use to wisiting operations, and the
Russians ensured.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
That we had them.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
A couple of last points on the one again on
the MAA statement and trying to sort of understand how
the world of diplomacy works. So when the count prospective
counterparts in the State Department must have read that statement.
What must have they taken from it? So I'm not
asking what Trump must have taken because Trump, like he
famously says, even he does not know at times what he's.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
Thinking, and he proves that by the way.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
But these are season diplomats right in the State Department,
So they must have seen mas first statement. They must
have seen me as second statement that came out last
night after the original tariffs. They must have seen PMO
these statement comments from earlier, this, earlier, earlier today. So
as a as a US diplomat, when you're reading such statements,
what do you take out of it?
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Well, if I were reading it, I mean you just
have to read what the US diplomats have been writing this,
you know, the sensible ones, even Vegan Baumman, all of
those who actually helped put the India US relationship on
its tracks, and they are horrified by what they're seeing
over here, you know, like that slow motion car crash.
And it's it's not just the India US relationship. I
(42:58):
mean the Trump has done that to India, to the
US europe relationship, has done that with US, Canada. Every
country is antagonized, and you know, the US is not
the United States, it's not the most powerful country on earth,
but for its relationships with all of these countries, right,
it's always about alliances. For the United States. If you've noticed,
(43:21):
the US never goes into war on its own. It
always ensures that it has it builds up, you know,
a band of a Yeah, let's go and you know,
hammer Saddam or you know, beat up this guy, or
you know that it's always a coalition that they prefer
because you know, they don't want to be seen as
isolationists and you know, like the bully on the block
(43:43):
or something. They take people along with them. And I
think one of the most amazing things about US power,
which is the most powerful that any country has been
in the history of the world, eighty years since the
end of the Second World War in nineteen forty five.
This is the month that the war ended, August of
nineteen forty five years actually looking at the eightieth year
of that, that relationship, that pre eminence of American power
(44:09):
was crafted on alliances and relationships where you spoke to people,
you took them on board, you didn't speak down to them,
you took their concerns. You had you know, very very
good diplomacy at play that ensured that this network of
allies would be there, either in NATO or in other
(44:30):
partnerships that they've had with the Aucos and all of
those that would help the United States if they ever
went to war. They would need bases. Right, How does
a country like the United States, which is on the
other side of the world control events on the other
side and at different time zone. It needs basis, it
needs allies, it needs all of that. And Trump is
literally saying, I don't need any of this. You know,
(44:51):
it's me. It's me. It's just he's almost trying to
make America like him, like this big alone you know,
this neither feared nor loved kind of you know, bully
on the block, that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
But I'm guessing the only saving rest agrees there then
is that just this one guy.
Speaker 1 (45:12):
Most people understand that. So, like you were saying, the
State Department would definitely look, they've they've worked on this.
These are career you know, bureaucrats, career diplomats. They have
invested skin in the game. The India US strategic partnership
is not an accident. It's not that Bill Clinton came
in two thousand and March and him and Chelsea and
(45:33):
his wife Hillary, they looked at India and they saw this,
you know, lovely, beautiful democracy, and they decided to start this,
you know, big relationship with India. It's everything that the
United States does is carefully thought of. They built plans,
They look at the future, they see where the world
is headed, they see where economies are headed. At that time,
(45:55):
I don't think we were even in the top ten
economies of the world, and today we are in the
top five. And by the end of this decade, we're
going to be the third largest economy. So that's a
country that you want to have on your side. So
those diplomats are now going to ensure that, you know,
just as we in South Bloc and in Delhi and
in India are going to ride these three three and
a half years. Who knows what's going to happen. He
(46:16):
might land it up in Pakistan next, you know, on
our doorstep. So it's very unpredictable. You know, the only
thing predictable about Trump is his unpredictability. So you will
have diplomats now on both sides kind of talking to
each other, talking under Trump. Maybe some track two kind
of things, sending out word through say businesses or you know,
(46:37):
other track tools or think tanks to say, listen, is
there a way we can continue this relationship and ensure
that Trump doesn't cause too much of damage, because what
Trump actually is doing is that he wants to ensure
that there is going to be an administration that will
be you know, he believes that the current administration that
(46:58):
he inherited, for instance, is left liberal legacy, and therefore
MAGA is going to be the default setting and everything
is going to be burned down and they're going to
rebuild it all over again. So his aim is to
overthrow the bureaucracy that's not stood by his wishes and
not obeyed his commands. So our ideas that we want
(47:18):
those status scho is there in part because we are
very uncertain what kind of world is coming in with
you know, MAGA and all this kind of unpredictableness that
Trump has brought into the thing. And yeah, thank you
for your attention, thanks for attention.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
In fact, you know, there's a theory that this slapping
around so to speak, of India that Trump is doing
is actually also to appeal to the MAGA base because
They're not very happy with what they perceived the US
sort of pandering to India their interests, especially with you
know a lot of Indian Americans holding positions of great power.
Speaker 1 (47:53):
In the US, taking jobs is what they believe.
Speaker 2 (47:55):
So yes, and you know, just to add to your
earlier point about the artists task that the role played
by bureaucrats to sort of have this relationship up and running.
I think if people are interested, they should read a
Shift Shunker Menon's if I'm not wronging, the book is
called Choices, where he talks about what actually went behind
behind closed doors to make the US INDO US a
(48:17):
nuclear deal happens history. It's a crazy champa.
Speaker 1 (48:21):
That yes, it's chapter from his book and Shift Hunker
men And incidentally, UH played a very key role there,
and so did the then nc MK and a Ryan
and I did speak with him recently for a long
extended video call and when Prime Minism and Monsing had
passed away, and he told me that, look, we just
went to the United States to get some fuel for
(48:43):
our nuclear reactors, right because all our reactors were running
below capacity. We needed some fuel. We said, is there
some way that you can help us do this, and
they came up with this architecture that completely changed where
we are today as a nation, and in the sense
that we now have access to duel use technologies that
(49:04):
were not given to us in in you know, pre
two thousand and eight, which we now are. We're part
of a many, a large number of clubs that we
were not part of, party the Barsonar Agreement, the MTCR
Missile Technology Controlled Regime, and you know, all of those
nuclear supplier Group waivers we've got, so we now open
(49:25):
to buying uranium from wherever in the world. And you know,
and so does the United States, by the way, and
you saw that Scott Ritters tweet on how the United
States is actually buying the equivalent of two Russian armored
divisions every year. They're giving Russia what forty billion dollars,
They're buying stuff worth forty billion dollars from them. Talk
about double standards where you know, railing against US buying oil,
(49:48):
you're buying uranium from Russia for God's sake, the United States.
So the thing is that you know, this, this, this
is something that completely transformed the trajectory of India US
ties and that nuclear deal was a big deal. There
are of course commentators who say, oh no, it's nothing,
it's crippled, as it's made as a second rate nuclear
power and all of that. But I believe, at least
(50:10):
in the short term, in the last twenty years or something,
has given us huge enormous benefits in terms of access
to science and technology and countries that would never do
business with US earlier, never give us technology. I mean
the Japanese and Germans, for god, said they would never
sell us anything because I was so afraid of US
using it into the nuclear and the missile programs, and
of course space which is seen very closely allied with
(50:33):
the missile program. So it did bring us out of
the you know, the nuclear paradom that we were subject to.
But ever since we've not seen the next big leap
after the Indo US nuclear deal. I think the biggest
event since the Indo US Nuclear Deal has been the
Trump tariffic deal.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Right final thoughts on deeper, and this is about Indian
diplomacy in general, especially in the last few years. So
what we've seen is that it's a much more aggressive diplomacy.
It's very resolute in putting India first, and it believes
in a strong multilateralism philosophy. So people can argue that
(51:15):
that's historically been the case, but it's much more visible,
is what.
Speaker 1 (51:18):
I'm trying to say in the last few years.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Apart from the push from the political authority the highest
levels the PMO and stuff like that, how much of
a role do you think the fact that we have,
for the first time in our history a career diplomat
serving as the Minister of External Affairs played in that.
Jashnker took on that charge in twenty nineteen. He's been
the minister since, and he was the ambassador to China
(51:45):
before that and to the US before that, So he's
very and the Foreign Secretary of course right before he
took charge as not right before, but before he took
charge as the Minister of External Affairs. So how much
of a role do you think he's played as somebody
who's a seasoned diplomat in shaping our diplomas in the last.
Speaker 1 (52:00):
Well, I think Foreign Minister Jess Anchor has done exeedingly
well projecting the new and very aggressive and pro India,
uh you know, diplomacy that we've seen in the last
decade or so ever since he's been first Foreign Secretary
and then later Foreign Minister, and I think that was uh.
(52:20):
He's one of the key you know, movers and shakers
in this government, and they're literally if you're looking at
foreign policy and national security, there are literally two engines.
It's a double engine, sir car right, it's NSAVAL and
it's UH Foreign Minister jest Anker. So he's a very
key part of this. And I think one of the
reasons that he was chosen by Prime Minister Modi to
(52:41):
lead this was for his very outright, you know, forthright
views and the fact that he UH sees India as
having you know, arrived on the world stage and it's
not a country that can be pushed around anymore. And
I've known him ever since he was UH our ambassador
to Beijing, which is where I first met him, and
(53:03):
I was, you know, astonished at the you know, the
sheer breadth of knowledge that the man has, and you know,
he could speak on anything from Tom Clancy novels to
the LTT and you know, we had a very very
fascinating conversation. I mean the first time I met him,
I was given a half hour audience and that appointments
(53:28):
spilled over to more than an hour and a half
and that's when I realized that, you know, this is
someone who could you know, enormously benefit us as foreign secretary.
And I think the government of India has seen the
utility of him as a foreign minister in the way
he's able to project India's position on a number of issues,
especially the double standards. He's called out the European double
(53:50):
standards and yeah, he's been very so he is actually
literally the face of the kind of diplomacy that India
wants to project into the world. And it's not always
going to be you know, it's not uh, you know,
roses all the way. There are thorns as well. There
are times when our you know, diplomatic efforts might take
(54:10):
a set back. It might look like Pakistan as the
upper hand for various reasons. Right, But I think you
don't bet against India. The thing is that, you know,
you don't bet against the house. India is the house.
You might have Pakistan for you know, instant gratification or
some small little tactical deal that they'll give you some
air bases here, or a Nobel prize there, or massage
(54:33):
or ego or something like that. But India is the default setting, right.
It is simply too large, is simply too big to ignore.
And I think the United States also recognizes that, howsoever
insulting Trump's demeanor and tone might be, I think the
US realizes that it needs India, possibly more than India
(54:55):
needs the United States.
Speaker 2 (54:57):
Yeah great then, and I think take away from that
a golden one is that perhaps down the road, when
Trump is not in office, India can use this period
as leverage. Can you remember back then what your president
did to us, give us that.
Speaker 1 (55:12):
Yeah, he'll be here in town Trump Tower or something
that by then?
Speaker 2 (55:16):
Yeah, yeah great then the thanks fantastic chatters always has
a lot of money. Yeah, and thanks to all our
listeners and viewers. That's it for this week's depends toes
for more. Tune in next week. Till then, stay safe
and not trust any boundaries.
This is India Today Podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Welcome to season three of Another Defense, the podcast that
takes you inside the world of conflict. I'm your host,
Deve Goswami, and every week I sit down with experts
and retired officers from the Army, Navy and Air Force
to decode all things to do with India security and
explore what it truly means to serve. Get ready for
(00:27):
stories of strategy, sacrifice and strength. This is in our Defense.
Welcome to Another Defense. This week we go from bunkers
to the air conditioned officers in the South. Talk from
fighter jets firing missiles to paragraphs of words being sent
by noteworbals, the world and art of diplomatic warfare. It's
(00:49):
been a pretty interesting week and to discuss this with
me is sand Hey, sndy, how are you good to be?
Speaker 1 (00:55):
The crazy week? That's crazy week? Newspact not completing. So
what's happened this week?
Speaker 2 (01:02):
Trump has slapped India with a total of fifty percent
tariffs on goods physically being sent to the US. For now,
I think that twenty five percent tranch is active. The
other twenty five percent that he announces the day before
when we record this will be taking effect in twenty
one days, is what the orders signed by the President
of the US says. He's basically mad that India's.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Buying cheap Russian oil.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
But you know, the best was pretty much oky with
it up until some time ago when India was doing
that and helping the.
Speaker 1 (01:36):
Global groop prices stay safe, stable, stabilized it.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
But now it's become a problem from him for him
because I think he thinks in his head that India's
purchases are fueling the Russian war machine in Ukraine and
basically sort of you know, not helping him end that war.
And you know, have another claim at the Nobel Peace
Price that he sore dearly wants, and so they're in
(01:59):
this mess. I was going to start this episode with
this pretty strong MEA statement that came out a couple
of days ago. This was before the additional tariffs kicking
actually arounced by Trump or even the threat of it.
Actually it was I think a reaction to Trump announcing
the first twenty five percent UH tariff on Indian goods.
That statement by a MEA was unusually strong. A lot
(02:19):
of commentators took note of it that this is not
usually the way THEMEA, the Indian Ministry of Affairs reacts
and speaks about the US especially uh. But before we
get to that, actually deep, I wanted to draw out
to talk to you about something that I thought was
very coincidental. But right the day later, the day after
(02:42):
the MEA statement, you had the Indian Army's Eastern Command
putting out the tweet, the tweet that said, uh uh,
it was a throwback tweet that you know, we're reminding
people just fi what happened.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
This day that year.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Is that this day that year, the US arms worth
two billion dollars worshipped to Pakistan.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
This was a this was a headline from back then.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Well over the last twenty years. Yeah, yeah, from the
Black seventies. But this day that year was basically this
headline was printed that in that year. So that's even
the armies throwing shit at the US. Now do you
think there was a coincidence or it was just like
it was actually interesting, It's.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Not a coincidence. Of course, everyone was looking at, you know,
things very carefully and I just checked that that tweet
hasn't been deleted, yes, which means there is like all
of instant command approach and putting out that tweet. I
think everyone's a little disgusted with what's going on they,
you know, especially considering where Indo US relations have come
(03:40):
from at least from nineteen seventy one. Nineteen seventy one
is possibly the lowest point that India US relations have
ever been. Right with Nixon and Kissinger in the White House,
you know, all kinds of names that Missus Gandhi was
called by them, it's almost unprintable. And then you have this, uh,
you know, open support of the military dictatorship in Pakistan.
(04:03):
And you just have to read the Blood telegram to
know how outraged even the US diplomats were. And this
is Archer Blood whose telegrams went out to the State
Department where he says, look, American arms are being used
to butcher innocent Pakistani civilians. You know, from there we
came to this stabilization of ties from two thousand and on,
(04:25):
that historic Clinton visit, five day Clinton visit in March
of two thousand where literally the first time that a
US president visited India in two decades, twenty five years
of an India US strategic partnership, and you have President
Donald Trump literally driver truck filled with explosives into that building.
(04:48):
How much worse can it get? We don't know.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Actually, it's only begun. It's only begun. Yeah, you half
years more of President Trump. That many aspects to this.
There's obviously the Russian angle. There's the not talked about
as often, the agriculture angle. But before we get to that,
before we talk about those two issues separately, I want
to draw your attention to something that geobratics expert Michael
(05:13):
Cooleman said earlier this day, earlier to day, sorry that
this could Actually he basically did not use the word ego,
but that's what he basically pointed to by saying that,
you know, India is that only country in the world
that has refused to accept Trump's claim that he helped
end of war. We're talking about the India Pakistan contry
during operations. Hindu India has repeatedly said that it was
(05:35):
just Indian and Pakistan that brokeer the pause in fighting,
and without calling Trump a liar, has basically said that
the US played no major rule in it, apart from
just like you know, exchanging some telephone call and stuff
like that. I'm guessing Trump is not very happy with that.
So one point is that all of this actually is
just about one man's ego, just like many wars are
(05:58):
pre take on this.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Yeah, absolutely, I think you've nailed it, and you know,
so has Google Man. The fact is that it is
all about Trump, and you know they The thing is
that countries have disagreements all the time. They disagree all
the time, but all of this happens behind closed doors.
So countries don't call other countries' names, they don't certainly
(06:20):
humiliate them the way Trump has been doing that, and
he's made it into you know, a fashion statement for him.
There is nothing that's sacro science anymore. He will call
Zelenski to the White House and he'll humiliate him for
the kind of clothes that he's wearing and unleash the
Vice president on him. So this is like it's a
(06:40):
as someone said, it's like watching a car crash in
slow motion. You know, you know where it's headed and
you're almost like powerless to do anything about it. And
that's what Trump has been doing, the kind of names
that he's been calling us. He said, it's a dead economy,
and you know India is a dead economy. Yeah, sure,
we're a developing country. We have our issues with the economy,
(07:02):
but we're not a dead economy. One of the fastest
growing major economies in the world, which is why the
United States is you're doing business with us, which is
why Apple has moved its factories here to India. Right,
it's certainly not a dead economy. And then saying, you
know that that crack that he dropped about, Yeah, you know,
we're going to find oil in Pakistan and maybe India
(07:22):
can buy oil from Pakistan. You know. So to my mind,
it's like a lot of the effort that both countries
have kind of put in over the last twenty five
years since that very historic Clinton visit to India, it's
all seems to be going down the drain. And you're
watching this on a daily basis, and you know, while
I think that all of this could be temporary, Oh
(07:44):
it's a tarriff thing. You know, we have fifty percent
tarretes will probably come down, it will eventually, But it's
the whole grammar around on all of this. It's all
the tirades and you know, the open berating of India,
all of these you know, South Bloc has long memories,
(08:04):
you know, like I'm fond of saying that it took
us nearly twenty five years to come out of the
anti US camp, which is where we were for justifiable reasons.
We were with the Soviet Union. We picked aside. So
did the Americans. They chose the Pakistanis. But later when
our economy started kicking into high gear post liberalization. Look,
(08:24):
the US is not here for charity, right. They are
one of the smartest nations on Earth. They may not
win a lot of wars, but they are among the
smartest business people on the planet. And they saw where
the Indian economy was going post liberalization. They saw where
it would be twenty thirty forty years hence, and this
is how empires think, you know, and let's way say
(08:46):
the Americans are an empire. They are the continuation of
the British Empire, the Anglophone empire. Right, they saw where
India was going to be, and they wanted to partner
with India to act as a hedge against China. Right.
All of this what we've seen in the last couple
of days with Trump and all that, it's it's left
(09:07):
a very bad taste in every one's mouth. And which
is why you've seen a very measured You've seen a
lot of silence, strangely from our side. If you've noticed, Uh,
the Prime Minister was great friend of President Trump. They
had a great bernahamie at some point during his first
term up key bar Trump sarka all of that. You
remember that it's now tariffsarka too bad. But uh, there's
(09:29):
been a silence from the topmost levels of the government,
and I think that's that's puzzling, and maybe Trump is
a little surprised as well. Wise. You know, my friend
made not picked up the phone and spoken to me.
He spoke to him once just before uh Asimuni's visit
to White House, to the White House for that lunch.
(09:49):
But that was kind of to you know, uh, preempt
anything that Trump might say soon after the meeting, right,
and of course politely turned down that ambush invitation to Washington, DC.
So you know, it's I think policymakers here are a
bit baffled by what's going on. It's just the thing
(10:11):
of we knew Trump is a loose cannon. We knew
his second term would be far more unpredictable than the first,
but we didn't expect to be in the firing line.
I think that's where the biggest surprises and the thing
is that, you know, I why do we think we
are so special? They're Yes, Actually he's not spared the Brits. Right.
(10:33):
The British are the closest that any country has been
to another country. Right, they share nuclear weapons. The British
submarines fire American nuclear missiles. That's how close they are. Right,
they are the Anglo sphere. He's gone out and hammered
the Brits, He's taken on the Canadians. Yeah. So as
as the Hindi thing goes, I mean, which radish of
(10:56):
which field? Right? Why do we expect to be treated
any different from that? And I think we should have
anticipated that this this car crash, you know, coming our direction. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
I think you're right there, because I think from Trump's
first term, I think a lot of people, commentators as
well as people in India, they were very much happy
to sort of see the train wreck from far away
see and make fun of him, laugh at him, and
you know, just like, but it's going to impact us. Yeah,
but Ano that's impacting us. We suddenly realized that, oh
my god, in the middle of peace. Yeah, so yeah,
(11:30):
one part of this episode, obviously, is going to be
about India's evolving response to Trump and what he's doing,
but that's going to be a bit later. Now, I
want to talk about the two core issues at hand.
Apart from, of course, his ego that he talked about
the need for him to get his ego massaged Russia,
that's talked about because he's put it out himself that
this is basically because India's buying Russian oil. And the
(11:52):
second much more important point about agriculture. In fact, PMO
said just this morning that India's willing to pay any
price to put its farmers and cattle herders and fishermen.
Uh So we'll come to the agriculture a bit. Sorry
your topic in a bit, But the Russian oil thing,
so we've stood by, not stood by Russia, I'm sorry.
We've continued buying Russian oil ever since the Ukraine War began,
(12:14):
ever since the first set of sanctions started, truggling on
Russian Russian goods, including oil. Not so much as to
stand by Russia, like I said earlier, not because Russia
has been a sort of a friend friend person like
over the years. But it's just cheap for us, and
we have a vast economy we have, you know, we
have a huge need for oil, and it just made
(12:36):
business and economic sense to just.
Speaker 1 (12:37):
Buy cheap oil levels.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Of of course, it helps that, like we've said officially
that you know, initially the West encouraged us to buy
Russian oil because that sort of helped stabilize the price.
And if I remember correctly, the initial months, India was
taking in Russian crude and exporting the refined petroleum to
the rest of the.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
World, including Europe.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
So they, I mean, we're very happy with it, but
it's now come to this and no matter if you
want to be patient, no matter you want to have
your own diploma, you want to have your own standing,
you want to stand by your convictions and feelings. But
the fact is that it's going to have some impact,
and it was something.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Right there was already a oiter's report last week.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
I'm not wrong that the Indian PSUs have paused Russian
oil purches in the last one week. Though when THEA
was asked about it, the official spokesperson run the jess
Will said that you know, it's they make sure this
is an evolving basis at the market and market couple.
But do you think at least for the near term, Yeah,
this is going to cause the reathing in terms of
(13:41):
do we or do we not by Russian oil? Do
you think whichever we go is going to be a
very fraud choice for us?
Speaker 1 (13:48):
Well, it is. It's certainly going to be a you know,
a choice that's fraught with an enormous risk. And I
think the government of India is already looking at, you know,
increasing the energy basket, you know, diversifying it and getting
more American oil the stalk of that forty seven billion
dollar trade deficit that we have, which is the primary,
(14:09):
well not the primary, but the secondary reason for Trump's angst.
The primary one, of course, being that we are buying
Russian oil, and the secondary thing is that why aren't
they buying oil from us? You know, So I think
they will. You will see in the next couple of days,
if not weeks, us buying more American oil and reducing
that trade deficit. So that's a choice that the government
(14:31):
vidia will make. So all of this is up for negotiation.
It's not it's not cast in stone. Fifty percent is
not cast in stone. It's always been you know, one
set of tariffs and then they're negotiated and they come down.
So he's been doing that with every country. He's done
that with the UK. The UK had I think they
got it thirty percent tariff thing, and it's now down
to ten. The EU also had something similar, which was
(14:55):
you know, double digit tariff, which has again come down
to about fifteen or so if I remember correctly. So
the these kind of things are all up for negotiations.
It's you know, but I think we were a little
surprised by the tone and the tenor of the statements
that came out of Trump's thing. I mean, it's not
the first time that we've faced, you know, geopolitical issues.
(15:15):
It's the first time that we've been at the receiving
end of an American president's are in a very long time.
It's not happened. I think the last American president who
said something close to what Trump is saying today is Clinton,
right after the nuclear tests of nineteen ninety eight, when
he said that, you know, India had dug itself into
(15:35):
a hole and it was for India to dig itself
out of that hole or something like that time. And
that is a one off remark, but other than that,
I can't think of any other American president who's used
these words, you know, and these words they are evabrate,
they stay with you, their bitter memories and all that.
But that said, these tariffs are up for negotiations. The
energy basket will be diversified, the Americans might get a
(15:58):
larger share of our pie that we buy, and they
would be possibly hard nosed negotiations that would begin when
the US Trade delegation comes towards the end of the month.
So it's all up for negotiations. It's all how many
cards we can put on the table. And you know,
what are the levers that we have on the United States.
(16:20):
And one big liver is of course Boeing, right, the
huge orders that we have sixty billion dollars er India
and Indigo and er India and this one Akasa indigous
with yeah, and so these two would have a large
number of orders, so that India would want to remind
the Americans that, look, we may be ordering defense equipment
(16:42):
worth you know, a billion or two billion or something,
but the commercial jets orders is huge. We're one of
the largest buyers of commercial jets in the world. So
all of these things are going to be you know,
thrashed out in the next couple of weeks towards all
of this month through August. But then you know, there
is going to be like I mean, because of the
kind of language that Trump is used, and of course
(17:03):
this other very inexplicable shift towards Pakistan. Yeah, that that
is that's baffling South Block as well. So I think
that that is something that is going to worry the
Indian policymakers, in politicians, the ministers, very very profoundly as
they're looking at this the state of you know, India
(17:26):
US relations under Donald Trump. It's surely be in six months.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
Yeah, Actually it feels much longer. Actually feels like six
years already. Uh yeah, right uh. And in fact, you know,
as we record this thing, news just came earlier this
day that Field Marshall Laarsimony is set to visit the
US once again in the in the coming few days.
You don't know yet for what whether we're meeting President Trump,
but I'm guessing he probably.
Speaker 1 (17:50):
It's Gorilla's send off, is what I ask. So he's
indulging in Krilla warfare. The Central Command.
Speaker 2 (17:58):
Right head right, uh right, So to the second point
then the one about agriculture and what I want to
talk to you about because this is not this is
not a subject that has been written about in depth
as such. Uh, primarily I'm guessing because you don't really
have much to go by in terms of official world
So I remember when Trump announced that you know that
the big gas board he brought out and now starts
(18:21):
on every country. He had mentioned that US would like
access to India's agricultural market. Uh, this morning, like I
said a PM mode without naming Trump, he was speaking
at a lecture for the famed Agricultural Economist Revolution where
he basically where he said that he was willing to
(18:43):
pay a personal cost, no matter what it was, to
protect India's farmers, cattle holders, and fishermen.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Uh.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
What we can gather is that the US wants access
to it for for very good reason. I'm guessing the
US market has a saturation point, and India's the biggest
oft to China, so it's bes to dump products awayear,
which is a big risk for US because cheap imported
US s mall is obviously gonna het your farmers. Some
data for our listeners and viewers before you get in
overyear So the US farmer on average gets sixty one
(19:14):
thousand dollars annually in subsidies, the Indian farmer only gets
to eighty two dollars. Agriculture accounts for forty one percent of
total employment in India, while it's just around one percent
in the US at fourteen point six percent. Agriculture is
one of the biggest components of India's GDP. In the
US it's just zero point nine too close to one percent.
(19:35):
The average farm holding in the US is is one
eighty hectes.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Per person, in indiates around one heck taper person.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
This basically tells you how disadvantage the Indian farmer already
is visibly the American counterpart, and if they now have
access to our market, it's going to be it's going
to cause them trouble. India has been clear that we
are not going to move on this. Do you think
that stand will hold because I think the biggest sticking
(20:04):
point in the trade negotiations is and has been agriculture.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
You know, I don't see India opening up agriculture to
the United States. Come what me? I mean They're not
going to do that. It is actually a political atom
bomb to quote Rahu in a different context, but this
this one is an atom bomb because it's a very
very emotive subject. You know, it's land, it's farmers. You
(20:31):
may not really care about the farmers, many of the
political parties I believe don't. Otherwise they wouldn't have opposed
the farm laws right a couple of years back, but
the government had to kind of roll back to those
farms farmers power by absolutely, and and the fact that
the emotive appeal of agriculture in India, I mean, at
the end of the day, we are still a very
(20:51):
we're a poor country. We're a developing country. We're primarily
an agric agrarian society which is making that transition to
manufacturing and services. Right. China has of course done that
much faster than us. The United States has done that
the fastest, possibly since the nineteenth and early twentieth century. So,
you know, for US to now open up our farm
(21:14):
sector at a time when all of those figures that
you mentioned, they're just glaring this inefficiency. The US is
a farming superpart right, it's looking for markets to dump
its produce, and India will never open up the you know,
agricultural sector for exactly precisely for the reasons that I mentioned,
the fact that it is a political time. It will
(21:35):
be suicidal for any government to do that. It would
be as I think it would. The next biggest thing
would be for any government to you know, accept the
international boundaries as they are occupied by Pakistan and China. Right,
these are non negotiables. You don't negotiate on territory and
you don't negotiate on agriculture, you know. But that said,
(21:57):
I think the Green Revolution where the Prime Minister was
speak on today about Ms swam Nathan, it is our greatest, single,
biggest achievement post independence, the fact that in the nineteen
sixties we were completely dependent on external sources to feed
our people. You know that famous pl for eighty Public
Law for eighty, which is when we would actually have
(22:19):
to call up the United States and beg them for food.
Could you send up you know, some more grain shipments please?
And then the Americans says, oh, yeah, okay, fine, we'll
do that. And then so when missus Ghandhi makes that call,
as the story goes, President Lyndon Johnson says, but why
are you voting against us the United Nations? You haven't
been very supportive of us at on the Vietnam War.
(22:42):
We weren't right. That was naked American aggression. So here's
the thing, and that's when the Green Revolution began and
missus Gandhi, as the story goes, said that don't ever
make me call an American president and beg for food.
Speaker 3 (22:56):
Right.
Speaker 1 (22:56):
So I think since then, we've now now become completely
self sufficient in food. We're exporting food, and we are
also feeding eighty core people, you know, free food over
the last five years. You can debate on the utility
of that, but it's a phenomenal achievement to feed eight
hundred million people. That just tells you where you've come
(23:19):
in the last half century or so. So you know,
once again, I mean agriculture because of all of the connotations,
the political ramification, that is unlikely to be open to
the United States, and for many other reasons as well.
The GM food angle, for instance, you know, genetically modified
food is rampant in the United States and in India.
(23:41):
As you know, we've just used it for maybe cotton,
that's the only place we've allowed it, but not in
food stuffs. We have issues with the kind of food
that is fed to American cattle, for instance, which is
what makes American milk problematic for us, because there's meat
that they're feded in. You know, all of those issues.
It's a very big contentious thing. Though I feel there
(24:03):
would be some little areas where they might allow them
to enter, you know, not all of agriculture, but there
would be some given take the whole thing is given
to exactly. Yeah, they will take a maximalist position. They
will say, well, fifty percent tariffs, but then you know,
they say, Okay, we're open to negotiating on this and
this and this, And my fear is that they might
(24:25):
actually make While they hold up on agriculture, they might
make significant concessions on defense, which is on agreeing to
buy American hardware. Right, and you've seen what's happened to
countries who bought American hardware. They have literally to seek
permission to use F sixteen fighter jets. You saw that
(24:46):
with Thailand and Cambodia. And worse is the prospect of
American companies entering the Indian military industrial complex and still budding,
still budding. Yeah, so they have a fully developed I
see of a kind that no country in the world
has it's the most powerful m I see in the
history of humanity. And on the other hand, you have
(25:09):
an Indian Indigenous military industrial complex that's just budding, it's
barely twenty five years old, which you have a you've
always had a public sector, you have a mini school
private sector, and you have thousands of MSMEs, you have startups,
you have guys getting into drones, and you know, small
technologies and all that which will eventually grow. And that's
(25:30):
always been the case. Small compan they start small, they
operate out of garages, and then in what five years,
they scale up and the big place. And I've literally
seen this happen with many companies which I've visited in
the last five years, six years. They started with small,
little workshops and today they have like five and six
story buildings because they've scaled up so quickly. And they've
(25:50):
got that. These companies are at risk from the us
mi C because they're going to come in and they
going to buy out all these things. They're going to
make you know, Rameishchahans out of all of these MSMs,
and you know, drink them like bottles of coke. That's
what's gonna happen. That's my fear. But that's just my
fear guy.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
But that's a good point because that's something I was
gonna bring up eventually anyway, is that he's Trumps a businessman,
like he keeps saying, so he's gonna want concessions.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Then he's a real estate guy from the worst real
estate market in the world, the most competitive real estate
market in the world, let's face it, New York. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
Uh, And negotiation is something that real estate thrives on,
so he knows that.
Speaker 1 (26:28):
So yeah, defense Uh.
Speaker 2 (26:31):
Is do you think the F thirty five gonna be
a factor, because, like we've discussed in the Air Force episode,
the future road map for Indiana India's Air Force episode,
you said that the idea that you said, and you
said that mostly will what will probably happen is that
India might get some more rafults because you already have
them in service.
Speaker 1 (26:50):
You have this bare past. Uh, and then you'll go
forward with.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Your am Cup project and your stages maybe Mark to one,
Mark Mark Oney, Mark one, coming the Mark to project. Uh.
Do you think under all this pressure there might also
be anything on the F thirty five.
Speaker 1 (27:05):
I think see the F thirty five is on the
table even as you speak. There have been a couple
of opinions to the country that oh, it's off the
table and all. But everything is on the table, right,
however harsh it might sound. Even the farming sector is
open for negotiations. They would be small areas, like I
mentioned that they would try and make inroads in two
and similarly with the F thirty five as well. That
(27:27):
is also you know, a carrot that India would like
to dangle before the United States, given the fact that
Trump has offered it while Prime Minister re Mote he
was in the White House. So it's like, you know,
Trump's F thirty five offer to India, despite the fact
that the US isn't very happy with the F thirty
five either, and Trump doesn't like it. It doesn't look
(27:48):
good enough, it doesn't look you know, menacing enough. And
they're looking at a new aircraft to replace the F
thirty five and the F twenty two, so they could
possibly you know, palm of the F thirty five onto
other countries while they move up onto the six generation fighters.
But you know, here's the thing with the F thirty
five is that, given the last couple of months, the
(28:11):
kind of the grammar that they've used and you know,
using trade as a negotiating tool to stop war between
India and Pakistan. Wouldn't this make you more vulnerable the
fact that you're buying such an expensive fighter jet. What
if a US administration or president tomorrow it's it's obviously
(28:32):
not going to happen in Trump's presidency, right that the
deal will outlast his tenure and possibly go on to
spill over into his success as presidential tenure. I mean,
these things take time, right, even if it's a G
two G deal. What prevents the US administration from using
the F thirty five as a as a you know,
(28:53):
leverage against India to you know, not fight the wars
that they want you to fight. And this is what
Thailand just saw recently. The US didn't allow them to
use their F sixteens against Cambodia. So the US is
up for using all leavers, you know, commercial, diplomatic, and
indeed military. So I think in the light of that,
there would be people who would really question buying the
(29:15):
F thirty five, no matter how you know, how high
tech it is and how stealthy it is and how
much of radar evading it is, that can it evade
American sanctions. I think not.
Speaker 2 (29:28):
It's not that stealthy, right, So then I'm guessing what
probably might happen is something that I discussed in season
two often at defense, the Striker deal, because that.
Speaker 1 (29:37):
Was like past their trucks. Yeah, yeah, well you can
make vehicles.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
Why would you want them to want to import them
from the viewers? But that's something you can like, okay,
they can, they can, yeah, justify that.
Speaker 1 (29:46):
Oh so we've taken you know, strikers, we've taken maybe
even two squadrons of F thirty five hundred. Negotiation, we
might buy more. So all of this is just going
to be put on the table. But you know, heart
of hearts, I don't think our hearts are into this now,
you know, given how for the first time in twenty
five years, we've seen open co version, you know, by
(30:09):
an American president. There have been measures in the past
with you've seen that in twenty nineteen, when India signed
that S four hundred deal with the Russian Federation, there
were warnings from the was it the Trump administration then
the Trump administration and preceding him, the Obama administration, they
wanders against buying the S four hunder because they were
(30:31):
afraid this would actually foreclose the sale of the F
thirty fives to India. The two can't co exist, right,
You can't have the frontline American fifth generation fighter jet
with you know, the best Russian air defense system picking
up the radar signatures of the other one. So that
was something that we signed. But all of this was
(30:52):
behind closed doors. And so I've spoken with the then
Defense Minister and Tarman about this and she said, look,
we've told the Americans that this is in our interest
and we need this and this is anyway I've been
signed before. This talk so initiated before the cats thing
came into effect. But all that was done closed door,
(31:13):
you know. But yere, now it is under trum. It's
my god, it's truth social social time.
Speaker 2 (31:20):
Yes, so we'll talk about now how the situation may
be like at Southlock, but after.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
A quick break.
Speaker 3 (31:29):
But it is important, isn't it to also communicate what's
going to happen. Communication and comprehension both are equally important.
So now it is in the modern type of a play,
this is opie and all. Yes, we do tell them
it's just cat well scan. But if you're not in relationship,
it will be abdominal scan. If it is already in
(31:49):
a relationship, then we can do it transigenal where the
rods they can al always when it comes to uterus,
and all best results will be transigenal scan because it
will be nearer to the uterress.
Speaker 4 (31:59):
We can find not everything what is necessary, but usually
the zonologists. The technician who stays near the zonologists, they
are the people who will make them understand and take them.
But like you said in PSCs, when it is overcrowded
and all they take it for track. Times are changing
from last two and a half decades to now, a
(32:20):
huge leap in the way we talk to the patient,
attend to the natient, and the respect to the patient.
They have changed a lot. But that's just so much
to improve on us.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Welcome back something by now to talk about what's it
like for the diplomats at the AMEA headquarters, what's it
like for our ambassador in Washington, d C. There's a
famous quote of Henry Kissinger. It is actually understood out
of context. The quote says, to be an enemy of
America can be dangerous, to be a friend is fatal.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
The quote actually is understood out of context.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
So what I've dug up is that he actually said
this to somebody just as Nixon was about to come
into office, and what he was saying this was during
the Vietnam or what he was saying was that if
the incoming president Nixon did not, sorry, allowed a coup
to happen, I'll phrase, And what he was saying was
that if the incoming president Nixon allowed a coup to
(33:23):
happen in Vietnam, then the world would perceive America like
so like they would believe that to be an enemy
of America is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
Not hanging with their friends.
Speaker 2 (33:34):
Yeah, But regardless of what Kissinger's context was, how he
meant it, don't you think Trump is doing that exact
same thing.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
Yes, Trump is realizing the words of Henry Kissinger, how
much ever out of context they were and they popularly
believed to be. Trump is actually telling the world that,
you know, to be our friend is a dangerous thing,
but to be a you know, to be an adversary
is dangerous, but we have friend is fatal. Look how
he's kicking his friends around, you know, And this is
(34:05):
the thing, you know, Trump believes this is this comes
from someone else in the United States, a friend who
said that this is how Trump treats all his friends.
You have to be literally, uh, you know, completely prostrate,
sucking up to Trump, and only then will he give
you any importance. You can't be a friend with an
(34:25):
independent point of view. Elon Musk was kicked out of
the US administration. I mean though, Trump has kind of,
you know, managed to cover up and say that he's
a good guy. And this guy who paid Trump's bills
and he kicked him out because he thought he was
being too big for his boots. He treats his friends,
(34:47):
he has no he has utter contempt for his friends,
and he only admires I feel strong men like Putin,
like Shi Jinping, like the North Korean dictator Kim And
these are the people that he actually thinks are He
wants to be like them, and he respects them, and
he respects strength. He's a classic bully, right, you know.
(35:10):
So that statement from them was a way of calling
out this bully on the block and that's what Trump is.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Yeah, So then the question is how do diplomats deal
with him? Do you think it's for them? And now
I'm talking specifically about the Indian diplomats and do you
think for them it's just a matter of riding the
way about. It's just like, you know, they know at
the back of their heads that it's just three and
a half years more of this guy. So you keep
US and Trump separate, you deal with Trump separately, and
(35:41):
you deal with the larger US, sorry, the country separately.
But the follow up question to that, does that same
sentiment also hold true for the State Department, because it's
only if you can deal with them in the future.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Well, you know, I think it's a good question. By
the way, I think what the Government of India's whope
would be now is to preserve the core of the
India US strategic partnership. It is an important partnership for US,
There's no doubt about it. It's you know, it comes
out of a common fear of you know, China, a
(36:15):
rise of China. We've never had a superpower at out doorstep, right,
and today we have that superpower over two thousand, five
hundred kilometers who is in a collusive partnership with another adversary.
So it's a two front situation for US, and it
helps for US to have partners from distant shores, which
is where the United States comes in and where of
(36:36):
course the Russian Federation also comes in. But it's a
tragedy that the Russian Federation and the Americans are at
digger's drawn right now. But the fact is that the
India US strategic partnership is far too important to be
sacrificed the altar of one man's whims and that is Trump.
And I think the diplomats in South Block would be
(36:57):
very careful now to ensure that the core of the
relationship is preserved, that Trump does not do more damage
beyond what he's already done. And they would, as you said,
write the storm out to the next three and a
half years and ensure that, you know, maybe the next
occupant into the White House in twenty twenty nine is
going to be a little more reasonable than Trump. And
(37:19):
Trump is not getting a third term, and thank god
for that. I imagine a third you know, Trump term.
The Trump believes that he is he can do he
can do it and in the Constitution he's going to change.
I'm sure he's going to go kick in, kicking and screaming.
He's not going to ride quietly into the night, and
very convinced about that. At some point he will start
making this thing of saying that he was actually cheated
(37:41):
out of his second term, therefore he deserves the third term.
You will see all that kind of infantilism coming out
of Washington very soon. But for our diplomats who actually
played it very you know, have played it very carefully.
You saw that statement came out after grave provocation, after
a series of stick means that came out. So we've
not we're not falling for We're not rising to his bait, right,
(38:05):
we are doing exactly what is in our national interests.
So there are, like I mentioned, there must be a
lot of consternation and what's going on there. But everyone's
pulling out their contingencies and you know, looking at the
kind of plans that they must have drawn up for what,
you know, what's the worst that could happen? What can
happen next? I hope they've made those contingencies right, and
(38:28):
this is something that they should have done right in
January twenty twenty five, if not earlier. That. What do
we do in case Trump targets us with tariffs? How
do you react to that? What are the levers that
you you know, pull, what are the buttons you press?
What are the carrots you dangle? All of that. Because
it's an elaborate playbook. It can't be done over a
few hours, or you know, you can't be seen as
(38:51):
responding to a tweet or something. You should have your
blueprint all, you know, charted out, and I think I
hope that they've done that. I sincerely hope they've done that.
If it gets worse than this, for instance, you should
actually plan. I did say that tariffs can be negotiated,
it can come down. What if they if he's absolutely
(39:12):
insistent on fifty and says that you have to open
up the agricultural sector. What happens then? Right? What do
we do? Then? Do we go back on the US
strategic partnership? What are the areas that you know we
can cause the US some pain? Can we ask for
certain agreements that we have with them? This is a
(39:33):
SAYSMOA and the LIMO and all of that, you know,
can we pause those? Can we tell State Department that
why didn't you you know, hold this guy back before
he damages He's so far he's hit the exterior of
the building. He's actually now going to enter the building
and cause a lot of trouble. And we've spent twenty
five years building this building. So you take a call
(39:56):
whether this is where you want the next twenty five
years to be right, because we have other countries like
the Russian Federation who are very happy to do business
with us, especially when it comes to the military relationship.
I mean, I asked one of the former Bramos dgis
who was there when the Russia Ukraine War began, and
(40:17):
he told me that, you know, despite Russia fighting the war,
despite them meeting their version of the BrahMos missile, which
is the Yakhan, they ensured that our supplies of that
engine didn't go down right the the the Ramjet engine
which is literally the heart of the BrahMos missile that
comes from Russia, which passed this Brumos to Mark III. Uh,
(40:39):
they ensured that supplies were all absolutely in order. There
were no supply chain issues on the site of the
sort that we faced with American fighter jet engines, the
G four zero fours. Uh. The Russians are pretty uh,
you know, reliable and dependable when it comes to hardware
sales because they know that they there is no history
(41:00):
of Russians squeezing as over arm cells, which is and
that's the reason that we love to do business with
the Russians. I think a lot of Westerners don't get that.
You know, while American equipment is sophisticated, the engines are
so good. They have extended lives and all that they
come with heavy strings attached. Right, So this is this
(41:21):
is the kind of uh, you know, contingency planning that
they must be doing. Now. I fear that the next
couple of months is going to be a rough and
rocky ride with trumpets. It is so unpredictable, and we've
just begun six months. It's three and a half years
to go, oh god, what now? What next? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (41:40):
And in fact, even the esport hunted by there. It
was the some batteries were delivered during the Ukraine ward.
I think there was some day there, understandably so, but
they were of great use to wisiting operations, and the
Russians ensured.
Speaker 1 (41:52):
That we had them.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
A couple of last points on the one again on
the MAA statement and trying to sort of understand how
the world of diplomacy works. So when the count prospective
counterparts in the State Department must have read that statement.
What must have they taken from it? So I'm not
asking what Trump must have taken because Trump, like he
famously says, even he does not know at times what he's.
Speaker 1 (42:15):
Thinking, and he proves that by the way.
Speaker 2 (42:17):
But these are season diplomats right in the State Department,
So they must have seen mas first statement. They must
have seen me as second statement that came out last
night after the original tariffs. They must have seen PMO
these statement comments from earlier, this, earlier, earlier today. So
as a as a US diplomat, when you're reading such statements,
what do you take out of it?
Speaker 1 (42:36):
Well, if I were reading it, I mean you just
have to read what the US diplomats have been writing this,
you know, the sensible ones, even Vegan Baumman, all of
those who actually helped put the India US relationship on
its tracks, and they are horrified by what they're seeing
over here, you know, like that slow motion car crash.
And it's it's not just the India US relationship. I
(42:58):
mean the Trump has done that to India, to the
US europe relationship, has done that with US, Canada. Every
country is antagonized, and you know, the US is not
the United States, it's not the most powerful country on earth,
but for its relationships with all of these countries, right,
it's always about alliances. For the United States. If you've noticed,
(43:21):
the US never goes into war on its own. It
always ensures that it has it builds up, you know,
a band of a Yeah, let's go and you know,
hammer Saddam or you know, beat up this guy, or
you know that it's always a coalition that they prefer
because you know, they don't want to be seen as
isolationists and you know, like the bully on the block
(43:43):
or something. They take people along with them. And I
think one of the most amazing things about US power,
which is the most powerful that any country has been
in the history of the world, eighty years since the
end of the Second World War in nineteen forty five.
This is the month that the war ended, August of
nineteen forty five years actually looking at the eightieth year
of that, that relationship, that pre eminence of American power
(44:09):
was crafted on alliances and relationships where you spoke to people,
you took them on board, you didn't speak down to them,
you took their concerns. You had you know, very very
good diplomacy at play that ensured that this network of
allies would be there, either in NATO or in other
(44:30):
partnerships that they've had with the Aucos and all of
those that would help the United States if they ever
went to war. They would need bases. Right, How does
a country like the United States, which is on the
other side of the world control events on the other
side and at different time zone. It needs basis, it
needs allies, it needs all of that. And Trump is
literally saying, I don't need any of this. You know,
(44:51):
it's me. It's me. It's just he's almost trying to
make America like him, like this big alone you know,
this neither feared nor loved kind of you know, bully
on the block, that kind of thing.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
But I'm guessing the only saving rest agrees there then
is that just this one guy.
Speaker 1 (45:12):
Most people understand that. So, like you were saying, the
State Department would definitely look, they've they've worked on this.
These are career you know, bureaucrats, career diplomats. They have
invested skin in the game. The India US strategic partnership
is not an accident. It's not that Bill Clinton came
in two thousand and March and him and Chelsea and
(45:33):
his wife Hillary, they looked at India and they saw this,
you know, lovely, beautiful democracy, and they decided to start this,
you know, big relationship with India. It's everything that the
United States does is carefully thought of. They built plans,
They look at the future, they see where the world
is headed, they see where economies are headed. At that time,
(45:55):
I don't think we were even in the top ten
economies of the world, and today we are in the
top five. And by the end of this decade, we're
going to be the third largest economy. So that's a
country that you want to have on your side. So
those diplomats are now going to ensure that, you know,
just as we in South Bloc and in Delhi and
in India are going to ride these three three and
a half years. Who knows what's going to happen. He
(46:16):
might land it up in Pakistan next, you know, on
our doorstep. So it's very unpredictable. You know, the only
thing predictable about Trump is his unpredictability. So you will
have diplomats now on both sides kind of talking to
each other, talking under Trump. Maybe some track two kind
of things, sending out word through say businesses or you know,
(46:37):
other track tools or think tanks to say, listen, is
there a way we can continue this relationship and ensure
that Trump doesn't cause too much of damage, because what
Trump actually is doing is that he wants to ensure
that there is going to be an administration that will
be you know, he believes that the current administration that
(46:58):
he inherited, for instance, is left liberal legacy, and therefore
MAGA is going to be the default setting and everything
is going to be burned down and they're going to
rebuild it all over again. So his aim is to
overthrow the bureaucracy that's not stood by his wishes and
not obeyed his commands. So our ideas that we want
(47:18):
those status scho is there in part because we are
very uncertain what kind of world is coming in with
you know, MAGA and all this kind of unpredictableness that
Trump has brought into the thing. And yeah, thank you
for your attention, thanks for attention.
Speaker 2 (47:35):
In fact, you know, there's a theory that this slapping
around so to speak, of India that Trump is doing
is actually also to appeal to the MAGA base because
They're not very happy with what they perceived the US
sort of pandering to India their interests, especially with you
know a lot of Indian Americans holding positions of great power.
Speaker 1 (47:53):
In the US, taking jobs is what they believe.
Speaker 2 (47:55):
So yes, and you know, just to add to your
earlier point about the artists task that the role played
by bureaucrats to sort of have this relationship up and running.
I think if people are interested, they should read a
Shift Shunker Menon's if I'm not wronging, the book is
called Choices, where he talks about what actually went behind
behind closed doors to make the US INDO US a
(48:17):
nuclear deal happens history. It's a crazy champa.
Speaker 1 (48:21):
That yes, it's chapter from his book and Shift Hunker
men And incidentally, UH played a very key role there,
and so did the then nc MK and a Ryan
and I did speak with him recently for a long
extended video call and when Prime Minism and Monsing had
passed away, and he told me that, look, we just
went to the United States to get some fuel for
(48:43):
our nuclear reactors, right because all our reactors were running
below capacity. We needed some fuel. We said, is there
some way that you can help us do this, and
they came up with this architecture that completely changed where
we are today as a nation, and in the sense
that we now have access to duel use technologies that
(49:04):
were not given to us in in you know, pre
two thousand and eight, which we now are. We're part
of a many, a large number of clubs that we
were not part of, party the Barsonar Agreement, the MTCR
Missile Technology Controlled Regime, and you know, all of those
nuclear supplier Group waivers we've got, so we now open
(49:25):
to buying uranium from wherever in the world. And you know,
and so does the United States, by the way, and
you saw that Scott Ritters tweet on how the United
States is actually buying the equivalent of two Russian armored
divisions every year. They're giving Russia what forty billion dollars,
They're buying stuff worth forty billion dollars from them. Talk
about double standards where you know, railing against US buying oil,
(49:48):
you're buying uranium from Russia for God's sake, the United States.
So the thing is that you know, this, this, this
is something that completely transformed the trajectory of India US
ties and that nuclear deal was a big deal. There
are of course commentators who say, oh no, it's nothing,
it's crippled, as it's made as a second rate nuclear
power and all of that. But I believe, at least
(50:10):
in the short term, in the last twenty years or something,
has given us huge enormous benefits in terms of access
to science and technology and countries that would never do
business with US earlier, never give us technology. I mean
the Japanese and Germans, for god, said they would never
sell us anything because I was so afraid of US
using it into the nuclear and the missile programs, and
of course space which is seen very closely allied with
(50:33):
the missile program. So it did bring us out of
the you know, the nuclear paradom that we were subject to.
But ever since we've not seen the next big leap
after the Indo US nuclear deal. I think the biggest
event since the Indo US Nuclear Deal has been the
Trump tariffic deal.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Right final thoughts on deeper, and this is about Indian
diplomacy in general, especially in the last few years. So
what we've seen is that it's a much more aggressive diplomacy.
It's very resolute in putting India first, and it believes
in a strong multilateralism philosophy. So people can argue that
(51:15):
that's historically been the case, but it's much more visible,
is what.
Speaker 1 (51:18):
I'm trying to say in the last few years.
Speaker 2 (51:21):
Apart from the push from the political authority the highest
levels the PMO and stuff like that, how much of
a role do you think the fact that we have,
for the first time in our history a career diplomat
serving as the Minister of External Affairs played in that.
Jashnker took on that charge in twenty nineteen. He's been
the minister since, and he was the ambassador to China
(51:45):
before that and to the US before that, So he's
very and the Foreign Secretary of course right before he
took charge as not right before, but before he took
charge as the Minister of External Affairs. So how much
of a role do you think he's played as somebody
who's a seasoned diplomat in shaping our diplomas in the last.
Speaker 1 (52:00):
Well, I think Foreign Minister Jess Anchor has done exeedingly
well projecting the new and very aggressive and pro India,
uh you know, diplomacy that we've seen in the last
decade or so ever since he's been first Foreign Secretary
and then later Foreign Minister, and I think that was uh.
(52:20):
He's one of the key you know, movers and shakers
in this government, and they're literally if you're looking at
foreign policy and national security, there are literally two engines.
It's a double engine, sir car right, it's NSAVAL and
it's UH Foreign Minister jest Anker. So he's a very
key part of this. And I think one of the
reasons that he was chosen by Prime Minister Modi to
(52:41):
lead this was for his very outright, you know, forthright
views and the fact that he UH sees India as
having you know, arrived on the world stage and it's
not a country that can be pushed around anymore. And
I've known him ever since he was UH our ambassador
to Beijing, which is where I first met him, and
(53:03):
I was, you know, astonished at the you know, the
sheer breadth of knowledge that the man has, and you know,
he could speak on anything from Tom Clancy novels to
the LTT and you know, we had a very very
fascinating conversation. I mean the first time I met him,
I was given a half hour audience and that appointments
(53:28):
spilled over to more than an hour and a half
and that's when I realized that, you know, this is
someone who could you know, enormously benefit us as foreign secretary.
And I think the government of India has seen the
utility of him as a foreign minister in the way
he's able to project India's position on a number of issues,
especially the double standards. He's called out the European double
(53:50):
standards and yeah, he's been very so he is actually
literally the face of the kind of diplomacy that India
wants to project into the world. And it's not always
going to be you know, it's not uh, you know,
roses all the way. There are thorns as well. There
are times when our you know, diplomatic efforts might take
(54:10):
a set back. It might look like Pakistan as the
upper hand for various reasons. Right, But I think you
don't bet against India. The thing is that, you know,
you don't bet against the house. India is the house.
You might have Pakistan for you know, instant gratification or
some small little tactical deal that they'll give you some
air bases here, or a Nobel prize there, or massage
(54:33):
or ego or something like that. But India is the default setting, right.
It is simply too large, is simply too big to ignore.
And I think the United States also recognizes that, howsoever
insulting Trump's demeanor and tone might be, I think the
US realizes that it needs India, possibly more than India
(54:55):
needs the United States.
Speaker 2 (54:57):
Yeah great then, and I think take away from that
a golden one is that perhaps down the road, when
Trump is not in office, India can use this period
as leverage. Can you remember back then what your president
did to us, give us that.
Speaker 1 (55:12):
Yeah, he'll be here in town Trump Tower or something
that by then?
Speaker 2 (55:16):
Yeah, yeah great then the thanks fantastic chatters always has
a lot of money. Yeah, and thanks to all our
listeners and viewers. That's it for this week's depends toes
for more. Tune in next week. Till then, stay safe
and not trust any boundaries.
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